ADP v BLS

Some background. At 8:30 am EDT on the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the employment report (BS) for the previous month. Usually two days before, the business services company ADP releases their own version of this report. Traders use the ADP report as a guide/signal of what the BLSBS report may be 48 hours later.

Today, the ADP Report was abysmal. This caused the dollar to drop, bonds to rally and gold to spike $10.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/horrible-economic-data-continues-adp-plunges-38k-expectations-175k-downward-nfp-revisions-ne
That this is "news" to anyone still amazes me. Look around. Do you see robust economic growth? Are your friends secure in their jobs? Are homes selling quickly in your neighborhood? Is your company expanding or simply trying to get by? Only on Wall Street and in academia, where everyone exists in a fantasyland ruled by charts, studies and statistical anomalies would someone seriously believe that all is well. Don't listen to these fools. Trust your instincts.

On the subject of the pathetically weak U.S. economy, you can bet that the ADP report and the BLSBS on Friday will spur plenty of discussion about QE3. I found this story and video from CNBS. This guy, Maughn, makes some excellent points so I suggest you take 4 minutes to listen.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43233866

That the Long Bond is rallying is simply a continuance of the trend we discovered and discussed here about a month ago. Please take time to review this, too. As a bonus, it's perverse fun to see the gold and silver charts from late April. Gosh, that was an interesting time. Hard to believe it was just a month ago.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-were-you-on-super-bowl-weekend.html

The POSX continues to slide backward though, oddly enough, it has rallied in the hour since the ADP report. Regardless, as it heads lower, all eyes will be on the 74 level. Failure there will send it rapidly back to 73. Therefore, you can expect all kinds of SPIN and MOPE in the next few days. Come to think of it, SPIN and MOPE are the likely cause of the latest bounce this morning, too.

Lastly, here's gold. Keep in mind how this works in an UPtrend. The target was 1525. It approached 1525 then fall back to support at 1515 before finally besting 1525 and moving onto the next target of 1540-45. It hit 1541 yesterday before falling back near support at 1525, reaching a low overnight of 1530. It is now tackling 1540 again. It may make it through this time and it may not. Resistance is great enough that it may take three stabs to push through. We'll see. What is certain, however, is that gold will soon break through 1540-45 and then head off to the real fight above 1550 and approaching 1560.

OK, that's it for now. I've got 1538, 38.02 and 102.50 for gold, silver and crude. Let's see what the day brings us. More later and as conditions warrant. TF

p.s.  I, like Tyler, received quite a few emails last night regarding the nonsense that was posted on the "EU Times". Having been fooled by them before, I tried to warn some of the emailers that this "source" was not to be trusted. In fact, the site seems to be home to plenty of viruses and spyware.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quick-note-internet-hoax-stories
Full disclosure: Based on an EU Times report last year, I walked around for a weekend telling everyone I knew that the Deepwater Horizon was torpedoed by a North Korean submarine. Oops. Live and learn, I guess.

p.p.s.  Given the weakness in silver, I figured I should reprint this from late yesterday.

12:05 EDT UPDATE:

I'm sensing a lot of frustration at the lack of participation by silver today and last week. Yes, The Cartel would like to keep it under $39.50 so we have that to deal with. More important, however, is sentiment and psychology. Consider, for a moment, your personal feelings and hesitation regarding the silver "market" following the events of early May. Now ponder those feelings writ large for the entire market. It matters not whether you have 100 ounces or 100,000 ounces, you feel the same angst and worry. As I've stated before, the psychological damage done to the silver market in May will take quite some time to heal. It's the main reason why I think the upside in June is only $42-44. We'll need lots of new money and lots of new open interest to drive price back up to $50 and it's going to take a while for the confidence that is necessary to make that happen to return.