Wednesday, June 1, 2011

ADP v BLS

Some background. At 8:30 am EDT on the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the employment report (BS) for the previous month. Usually two days before, the business services company ADP releases their own version of this report. Traders use the ADP report as a guide/signal of what the BLSBS report may be 48 hours later.

Today, the ADP Report was abysmal. This caused the dollar to drop, bonds to rally and gold to spike $10.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/horrible-economic-data-continues-adp-plunges-38k-expectations-175k-downward-nfp-revisions-ne
That this is "news" to anyone still amazes me. Look around. Do you see robust economic growth? Are your friends secure in their jobs? Are homes selling quickly in your neighborhood? Is your company expanding or simply trying to get by? Only on Wall Street and in academia, where everyone exists in a fantasyland ruled by charts, studies and statistical anomalies would someone seriously believe that all is well. Don't listen to these fools. Trust your instincts.

On the subject of the pathetically weak U.S. economy, you can bet that the ADP report and the BLSBS on Friday will spur plenty of discussion about QE3. I found this story and video from CNBS. This guy, Maughn, makes some excellent points so I suggest you take 4 minutes to listen.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43233866

That the Long Bond is rallying is simply a continuance of the trend we discovered and discussed here about a month ago. Please take time to review this, too. As a bonus, it's perverse fun to see the gold and silver charts from late April. Gosh, that was an interesting time. Hard to believe it was just a month ago.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-were-you-on-super-bowl-weekend.html


The POSX continues to slide backward though, oddly enough, it has rallied in the hour since the ADP report. Regardless, as it heads lower, all eyes will be on the 74 level. Failure there will send it rapidly back to 73. Therefore, you can expect all kinds of SPIN and MOPE in the next few days. Come to think of it, SPIN and MOPE are the likely cause of the latest bounce this morning, too.
Lastly, here's gold. Keep in mind how this works in an UPtrend. The target was 1525. It approached 1525 then fall back to support at 1515 before finally besting 1525 and moving onto the next target of 1540-45. It hit 1541 yesterday before falling back near support at 1525, reaching a low overnight of 1530. It is now tackling 1540 again. It may make it through this time and it may not. Resistance is great enough that it may take three stabs to push through. We'll see. What is certain, however, is that gold will soon break through 1540-45 and then head off to the real fight above 1550 and approaching 1560.

OK, that's it for now. I've got 1538, 38.02 and 102.50 for gold, silver and crude. Let's see what the day brings us. More later and as conditions warrant. TF

p.s.  I, like Tyler, received quite a few emails last night regarding the nonsense that was posted on the "EU Times". Having been fooled by them before, I tried to warn some of the emailers that this "source" was not to be trusted. In fact, the site seems to be home to plenty of viruses and spyware.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quick-note-internet-hoax-stories
Full disclosure: Based on an EU Times report last year, I walked around for a weekend telling everyone I knew that the Deepwater Horizon was torpedoed by a North Korean submarine. Oops. Live and learn, I guess.

p.p.s.  Given the weakness in silver, I figured I should reprint this from late yesterday.

12:05 EDT UPDATE:
I'm sensing a lot of frustration at the lack of participation by silver today and last week. Yes, The Cartel would like to keep it under $39.50 so we have that to deal with. More important, however, is sentiment and psychology. Consider, for a moment, your personal feelings and hesitation regarding the silver "market" following the events of early May. Now ponder those feelings writ large for the entire market. It matters not whether you have 100 ounces or 100,000 ounces, you feel the same angst and worry. As I've stated before, the psychological damage done to the silver market in May will take quite some time to heal. It's the main reason why I think the upside in June is only $42-44. We'll need lots of new money and lots of new open interest to drive price back up to $50 and it's going to take a while for the confidence that is necessary to make that happen to return.

339 comments:

  1. Any advice is appreciated. Wanst to invest $325K in a 401K account in PM's.

    What's the best way to do so?

    Grasshopper

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  2. @Shill (from previous thread) -- there is quite a bit of controversy about the article you linked. Lots saying it's a hoax perpetrated by Sorcha Faal

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quick-note-internet-hoax-stories

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  3. @Turd, I Will Be Your Grasshopper
    Assuming you want to keep it in plan (vs. early w/d), dollar cost average in to whatever you seek (metal funds, miner stocks, or?) The next several months with debt ceiling and QE3? and anti-oil-speculator policies, margin hikes, etc. should provide enough volatility that it would be very hard to pick a perfect buy point and waiting too long would just cost you more in the long run.

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  4. @TF & Shill -- re: Sorcha Faal & http://www.whatdoesitmean.com

    Which is not to say the story itself is necessarily in all respects false, just that it was put out by a known hoaxster, and its details cannot, at this point, be verified through any known, legitimate sources.... ;-)

    This story is certainly interesting:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1393028/Egyptian-banker-Mahmoud-Abdel-Salam-Omar-denies-sex-attack-hotel-maid.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

    And Vlad DID throw his hat in the PsyOps ring with this:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1392463/Vladimir-Putin-claims-Dominique-Strauss-Khan-victim-conspiracy-force-out.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

    Whatever the truth may be, it most certainly is NOT (only) the official party line disseminated by our ever-so-helpful mainstream journalistic enterprises. But it certainly seems to be the season for sexually predatory (central) bankers in Manhattan, and Mother Russia has developed an unusual fondness for the rule of law in general, and fairness in the treatment of the IMF in particular.

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  5. Turd-

    Thanks so much for doing the basic analysis that the MSM can't seem to handle. Your point about looking around to access the actual financial state of the country is perfect.... you'd think the talking head economists would stick there head out a window to see what the financial weather is actually like.

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  6. Thanks CD, and thanks for the update TF.

    10:01a

    ISM manufacturing index drops to 53.5% in May

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-manufacturing-index-drops-to-535-in-may-2011-06-01?link=MW_home_latest_news

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  7. Good morning folks. It seems terrible ADP numbers means that PMs are now worth less than they were yesterday. I guess you need a job to protect your savings against anti-dollar Fed policy :)

    Eff the world. I'm staying small for now with gold and silver positions, and untouched core longs. Unless we get a sweet dip, I'm not tempted to buy more. And unless we get a sweet pop, not tempted to sell my trades either.

    The CME margin reduction move last night looks to be clearly pre-emptive to today's bad numbers and a really bad Friday NFP number. Lower margins means price can drop but the temptation to lose your position is reduced. Which of course is a huge mistake! If you're in a loser, you need to get out. That assumes you know what a loser looks like. I'd say a loser is any stock that depends on Japanese economy in any meaningful way and has Q2 numbers coming out this summer.

    Guess we'll see how this plays, but my positions are so small right now, they could game this QE3 question out until we see 2008 again and I wouldn't even sweat the paper loss. Cash is king (for now) for future buying opps :)

    Oh what a raid we're seeing right now. Interesting.

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  8. @Silverman, thought the same thing... but then any one can throw a line like that and 50% chance they'll be right!

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  9. @Silverman
    Sure. Wonder we he didn't tell us exactly what would happen? Cuz he's FOS.

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  10. Stock Market sell-off causing pressure on PM's?

    Probably due to all of the shitty ass news coming out. ISM Index and Construction spending just came out, not sure the #'s or even what they mean, but they sure did make the "risk" assets plunge for now.

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  11. @Turd, I Will Be Your Grasshopper

    I have only read about these - I cannot vouch for them - I am looking for some that has actually done it- but Terry Coxon - is pushing a book on Open Opportunity IRA - where you are custodian of the IRA ( thus in complete control of PM's / funds in IRA / your custodian of the Physical) DYODD - YMMV.

    http://silverbearcafe.com/private/07.10/danger.html

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  12. Hmmm.
    I guess we'll see some trolls today.
    Even more when middle school lets out.
    That's always fun.

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  13. Turd said support 37.60. Bouncing . Bot AGQ 197.96

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  14. Not buying this dip.
    At least not yet.

    I'm paying attention if we get down to that 36.25 bottom the other day. If the move looks to be losing steam and is a second or third leg down, may play. If not, may wait to see if it can bust through. Otherwise, sidelines with my too-expensive plays from yesterday morning.

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  15. lol @ that 3$ drop in gold in a split second 10 min ago. Another obvious raid here. These relentless son of b****es.

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  16. Gold still holding up reasonably well.

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  17. worst case looks to be 37 to 37.20 to me

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  18. @atlee
    Yes and no. There's a cluster of support there, but they're only just beginning to hit the volume triggers.

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  19. Thank you Turd!

    Crazy volume on that selling spike!

    BTFD - FUBM - FU-Bankers!!!

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  20. Bought in at 37.6 as I said I would this morning. Good luck everyone.

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  21. putting in a buy order at 37.30..

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  22. So, I'm waiting for the bounce. CDE has been a nice swing trade of late.

    NGD has been holding up of late. It's got to hold $10.

    TRE, oh, if only I could short it.

    JAG getting killed.

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  23. Isn't our Market glorious folks? Amazing how the losses can be held back in the DOW, yet PM's are allowed to bleed water fall like. Amazing.

    US market are a joke.

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  24. This held long enough for me. In @ 37.60.

    Doesn't mean I think it won't go lower, I do think it will be back to 38ish today.

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  25. @Turd's Grasshopper

    I use PSLV and PHYS for my IRA. CEF is worth looking in to as well.

    Can also trade futures, study that A LOT before diving in.

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  26. One could argue the advance warning was the lack of overnight gusto for silver. Usually when they're soft, we're even softer.

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  27. That's one huge raid going on, looks like the EE are making up for the bank holiday weekend :O

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  28. Gold back at 1536 again. Definitely the safer play of the two. I'm already green in that again, while silver is still way red. Ho hum..

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  29. got some more crude, average is now 101.8

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  30. I bought AGQ just below $200....still have dry powder.

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  31. @trollercoaster
    Gold sucks too. It should be 12k/oz.
    Durned bankers.

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  32. Looks like another leg down is coming...

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  33. Any thought on buying either COW or CORN today?

    Grasshopper

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  34. Picked up some AGQ at 197, trying to average down yesterday's buy... if we drop close to 37$ silver that would be cool.

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  35. ..GD..

    I tell myself I will never hold an option over night... then I see it go up on the weekend.. so I try holding it overnight and I get squashed.

    surely we will get SLV $39 by June 18th right?

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  36. Where are you guys seeing silver volume in real time?

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  37. Turd's 37.60 hanging well currently.

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  38. miked

    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

    is where I go

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  39. @Yoni
    It is quite easy to open a self-directed IRA and store metals in a vault. I use the administrator that Tulving will deal with, just go to his web page and you can read about it.
    As for 401k's, most have few good PM funds available. I pestered my husband's administrator to add 2, but they are mostly mining companies, not bullion. Next step will be to pester them to switch to one of the sponsors that is more flexible. Schwab is apparently going in this direction, according to today's WSJ, and TD Ameritrade is already there.

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  40. Yay! I'm back to being able to post from the iPad. Happy camper. I'm outside but some of my buy limits should have activated.

    Looks like my smackdown aura was a tad too strong. Lol

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  41. we're only a dollar off the high from last week and $1.70 off $39.50 where Turds prediction of resistance is anyway..

    As we say in the UK, Keep Calm and Carry On.

    GLA

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  42. Greece to complete bailout talks by Thursday: paper


    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greece-to-complete-bailout-rb-3410935654.html;_ylt=ApIg3xIVwY7ByFCAk8WI.8G7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1bG9wdjZtBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNncmVlY2V0b2NvbXA-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

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  43. Let's please bear in mind that the EE messes with PMs every month around the time these "reports" hit. More contrivances, don't be swayed.

    Phyzz buyers: this is just giving us more time to buy what's Real for less. In exchange for increasingly worth-less scraps of perception paper no less.

    Have at it. This Fire Sale ain't gonna last forever you know.

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  44. @ Happy

    Newb question. How do you read the on balance volume on the netdania chart

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  45. Congrats dip buyers..I wasn't convinced a few minutes agao, but it does look like this raid is over and you've made a good grab.

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  46. Democrats: No pay for lawmakers if U.S. defaults - May. 31, 2011

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/31/news/economy/debt_ceiling_lawmaker_pay/index.htm

    ////KEYBOARD////

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  47. Personally, I'm stacking cash right now and probably the rest of the month at least. I'm happy with my core holdings and I'm still waiting on a Gainsville shipment.

    While I believe the economy to very sick, don't underestimate TPTB to keep the can kicked. I've noticed recently in my area: a number of homes have sold very quickly in my hood, my grocery bill seems pretty constant of late, my company's hiring... just sayin.

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  48. Why is everyone in such a frenzy? The stock market sold off on terrible news and the algos took control and irrationally sold off other risk assets (such as PMs).

    There is a lot of widespread usage of the word "raid" in the gold and silver market.

    Yes there are steep selloffs and they don't always play to logic, but we are dealing with an algorithmic market. My definition of a raid was more of yesterday, when everything was skyrocketing on a weak dollar + dow/s&P up and gold and silver were capped. Today at least there is reason to know why the selloff commenced.

    Look at the correlations of the market movements before crying raid and manipulation every time. Yes we know its manipulated, but my definition of the term "raid" should be used in situations where technical support is breached when the market correlations don't support the movement.

    Volatility my friends... volatility... and it is Wednesday today... Wednesday is usually never a "good day" for PMs. Be patient, Thursday and Friday are coming soon! Nothing is for certain, but patterns are recognizable.

    Not saying its not possible for a raid to show up today, but I don't think everyone commenting on how big of a raid this is (really isn't that bad, gold didn't make lower lows from its rally off of 1530 this morning) is helping anything.

    Took me a while to become comfortable with this understanding, as it goes against intuition...

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  49. @Everyone surprised by the big dip this morning:

    You all should start looking for day to day patterns. Today and yesterday are opposites. You can see the big fish and their decisions. This happens routinely enough that I'm surprised Turd doesn't talk about it. If the day looks exactly opposite the previous day from 7:00am-8:30am, more often than not, the rest of the day(out to 2 pm or so) is almost exactly opposite too. It's Karate Kid: Risk on, risk off. Risk on, risk off. Stay tuned to see if the waterfall party of yesterday does a big BTFD today. We have about another hour to see how it pans out.

    Go back and look at historical charts on Kitco and see the many days that overlay as almost identical negatives. You may not want to trade it, but the pattern is undeniable, and it's not just "manipulation," but a real pattern of observable cause and effect: Big money decides, and big money changes its mind, using the same money it had yesterday.

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  50. Um. Gold 1542. WTF.
    Short cover??

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  51. @Yoni
    Sorry I did not read your post closely enough. You want to be your own custodian? You can't do it without invalidating the tax protection of your IRA. You can set up all the LLC's in the world, and someone will surely take your money to do it, but it will not be accepted by the IRS.

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  52. Nice. This is pretty amazing to watch.

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  53. @Murphy

    Click 'studies' at the top of the chart on the menu bar scroll down =]

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  54. wow, gold looking strong (for now? :) )

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  55. bada bing. Just follow the Turd. Works every time.

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  56. APMEX has Gold up over $1543..

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  57. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  58. @Code the Plumber
    You forget to mention that the money they're using is what they collected as little guy stops were blown out in both directions.

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  59. @murphy the volume can be added by clicking on the icon that has red/green vertical bars. On my screen it is just below the word "Zoom".

    Note this isn't an accurate total volume. Netdania is hooked to only some of the players and it is probably accurate as a relative volume indicator.

    FOAGQ I'll be selling some as we get to $37.98. Oh wait that's happening as I type! cha ching.

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  60. what just happened to gold lol

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  61. Yay! I'm back to being able to post again, too! What the heck? :D

    Watchin' the market goin' down...Silver/Gold/Oil breaking back through.

    Been really thoughtful of late of how to alert dear friends and family lately of what's to come...anyone have any hints or success stories? I know not everyone will listen, but not to try makes me bummed...Thx!

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  62. Nice FUBM on PM's
    Gold penetrating resistance at 1540...
    Silver not so much just yet but have faith in the Turd!

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  63. Franny,

    You can call my metals broker George Cooper of USA Gold. I did our PM IRA in 2009 w/ Sterling Trust as custodian. USA Gold/Centennial Metals was the metals broker I bought my gold and silver from for the IRA. The metal sits in the Delaware Depository. This tri-party thing is completely typical of how PM IRA's are set up.

    I can only speak from my experience, and that experience has been very good to excellent. Sterling Trust also handles all Delaware Depository details. Sterling provides the acct statements, etc (including online view).

    Sterling open an account: http://www.sterling-trust.com/plans-and-services/precious-metals.html

    To contact George Cooper/USA Gold: 1-800-869-5115 ext. 102

    George has become a personal friend and I can vouch for his integrity and honesty. I can recommend him to my fellow Turdinistas w/o a hint of doubt. George is a very good person working for a totally reliable company. Just what you want. Sterling has been just fine too.

    Good luck.

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  64. In August gold, $1544.70 was the intraday high on 5/4/11. That is your number to watch for today. A close above there sets the table for 1550-60. Last is 1544.60 with a high of 1545.50.

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  65. crude still fighting.. silver looking good but might need more spinach...

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  66. ZeroHedge attributing the Gold Spike to the dawning that QE3 will follow QE2

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  67. First symmetrical FUBM we've had in a while. Now let's see if the BOS can do a double-dog, FUBM silver right back at them. Little pause here at 38 and then another .60! Come on!

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  68. @Tesla and Happy

    Thx much. I wanted to ask how do you interpret the on balance volume chart in the studies instrument. Thx

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  69. Sold XAU 1543.
    I had a nice profit on that trade and it was my target. Gotta honor the target.

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  70. Start Me Up...we are going higher.

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  71. @Scottj88

    The voice of reason. Yes, computer algos are a constant reality we all need to recognize.

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  72. Money moving out of stocks and avoiding the dollar like the plague. Gold benefiting in a big way. Silver carrying the weight of the equity drain but hanging in there pretty well. This is all a great sign of things to come for PM longs.

    Turd's call on $37.60 was spot on. This guy really knows what he's doing.

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  73. Turd, Atlee, Pailin: Where do you see upper resistance in Silver?

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  74. @Devise
    Thanks. I think it's going higher, but I want to see this move settle down a bit first and assess from there. I hate seeing 1543 become 1538 in 2mins and then struggle with 1540 for another 3 days or something. And if it goes straight to 1600, I'll laugh and know that things are beginning to right themselves in the world.

    @atlee
    Good to see silver finally playing ball on the gold move. Still got my silver. It has not hit target yet :)

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  75. Mr. Turd,

    Do you still see now as a good entry point for either CORN and /or COW?

    I see COW is now trading down to where it was at the beginning of 2009.

    Thanks,
    Grasshopper

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  76. @Devise
    Resistance will be all the way up at the previous points...38.20 (right now), 38.40-50, 38.8, 41, 42.

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  77. And here goes silver, testing 38.5 soon :)

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  78. Thx for the reply Pailin. Much appreciated. I'm learning a lot from you guys.

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  79. @ Devise
    39.45 with minor bumps along the way.

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  80. I'm actually enjoying these dips :)

    Put your hands in the air and screeeeeeeeeeeemmmmmmmmmm

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  81. @Devise
    Don't learn too much from me. I make bucks, but I leave even more on the table. I'm a huge chickensh!t on upper-end risk. May 1 scarred me.

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  82. trying to change my avatar but wont let me. any tips? On google account

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  83. ewc
    I was trying to disabuse Yoni of the notion that there is some scheme that will allow one to be the custodian, i.e. keep the metal in your house instead of in a depositary. You can try such schemes, but in the end you will learn (maybe 20 years from now) that you owe a boatload of taxes because you engaged in a prohibited transaction that amounts to a distribution as of the date of the transaction.

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  84. stopped out at 38.237

    will wait for the RSI to chill out to get back in

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  85. @atlee
    Man of few words. I should have just said that.

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  86. Cheers atlee. I've decided to lighten my load at 38.40.

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  87. @sp
    Short RSIs are all pretty jumpy on this move in both metals.

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  88. @ Murphy:
    I wanted to ask how do you interpret the on balance volume chart in the studies instrument.

    I asked same question of Netdania regarding Silver volume. I shall paste their answer below:
    "The numbers represent the trading volume from few banks, giving some indication of the ongoing market activity. Please note that it cannot be used as a guide line for the total market volume, which is unknown"

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  89. Gold is kind of unstoppable right now.
    Beautiful thing to watch.

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  90. Gold move is also good for the GSR, meaning silver will start looking like a relative bargain again. At least I hope so :)

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  91. Because of May 1st I always close my trades on Friday.

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  92. Thank god for FUBM. I really shouldn't watch the charts so much given that i'm staying in till Turds call for Mid/late june.

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  93. @Murphy
    FWIW
    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:on_balance_volume_ob

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  94. TRE is kicking butt today. Anyone else holding?

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  95. 11:09a

    Fed buys $7.37 bln in bonds; Treasurys stay up

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  96. I hate to be the voice of reason (well actually no, I always am) but unless Silver breaks 38.80s and then 39.50s, it is STILL technically a SELL.

    Do with that info what you will fellow turdites. As for this afternoon General, I'm out. Plenty tired from repelling bogeys while you boys slept.

    Time for D Homey to get some shuteye.

    Night.

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  97. @ Paulindoon
    Thx. Okay so what is the difference between the regular volume number from the red/green graph beneath the settings word and the OBV? And I promise to shut up. Thanks all.

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  98. Interested to hear people's thoughts about TRE breaking a ~8 month cap at ~7.60. Anyone think its time to buy and hold this one?? It's graph looks very very strong.

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  99. I'm in a really good mood...

    I'm really learning to not panic with these raids.. so now a song...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WEtxJ4-sh4

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  100. G'Night JoeKA. We'll try to keep the whole thing from crashing down around our ears while you're asleep... ;-)

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  101. Thx Tesla, I posted before I saw your response

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  102. Scottj88,

    I got in at 7.30, I'm seriously considering getting out now and then diving back in on the next dip. I'm thinking for now I need to hold and be patient and see how high we get today.

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  103. Sorry, one last. Today's latest Downey update:

    GOLD:
    Gold continues to struggle at the 1540 area but has maintained support in the 1526-1533 area near the 61% retrace level. Today holds the capability of very wide swings in the market --- but so far we've seen the opposite as the range in gold has been somewhat tight.....but the day is not over yet.

    From a cyclical standpoint --- a short term trend change is due this week that could usher in pullbacks to mid month so we need to be on watch. Price has to break 1519-1526 first --- otherwise the trend is still up.

    While price remains inside the purple channel lines, should price close below 1519-1525 it would be suggestive that the shorter trends could be taking effect. While the under par economic data being released could be viewed negatively to metals --- it also could spark a call to NOT END THE QE money printing that is going on globally and could produce the opposite effect in metals as the view will be NO END TO STIMULUS. THE STOCK market at the moment has turned down on all the data and remains short term bearish.

    In summary --- keep an eye on the stock market --- if gold goes its own way higher ---the potential to move towards the 1545-1555 area will still be alive. RESISTANCE for the remainder of the day is 1545-1555 and support is the 1526-1533 area.


    SILVER:
    The July silver contract was unable to climb above the prior session's high and in turn the silver market appears to be testing price near 37.50 --- with the horrible economic news being released, a weaker vibe is being seen in commodity markets today and that track the recent pattern of softer US economic data but it could also be news of a soft Chinese PMI reading last night. This weak data could also be viewed that the QE stimulus is no where near of ENDING........and that might prompt opposite reactions in metals higher.

    While the silver market hasn't paid that much attention to supply side fundamentals lately, some silver traders might see the news of a sharp gain in Mexican March silver production as a fresh negative to prices. In fact, Mexican March silver output rose by a significant 39% over the last year's March tally and that could add to the initial negative price bias. Another issue that could weigh on silver prices today was a rise in Asian silver margins at the end of last week, especially if general price weakness continues to surface in a broad range of commodity markets in the days ahead.

    In summary -- as long as silver remains above the 37 dollar area ---the trend is still up ---- but caution is warranted. Resistance is that 38% retrace level that price has been fighting near the 39 dollar area. SILVER needs to get back above the 38.20 - 38.50 area ------that is the KEY price zone today to watch today.

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  104. gold entering 1550-1560 zone....yipee...

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  105. @JoeKa.. see you in the morning mate.. good work..

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  106. QEIII baked into the cake. Not publicly announced but you can see with no debt ceiling raise the USDinker dollar is sinking as the exits get crowded before the stim-u-less is 100%. Market sell off expected but the stampede so soon out of the USDinker dollars says it won't be long until the dead head fed have to step forward and save the markets with more hot easy money inflows for the primary dealer to deploy. Bulk of that going into real monetary stores of value; gold/silver; staples; durables. GET'EM WHILE THEY'RE HOT!!!

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  107. Night Joe..sleep well m8..GO GOLD!!! We may all need a cigarette break after this run lol

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  108. Fellow Turdites, I am setting up a gold/silver miners portfolio for myself and would appreciate suggestions. I thought about setting up composed of ETFs 1/4 GDX 1/4 GDXJ 1/4 SIL and 1/4 Individual stock picks

    Do you have any suggestions for individual stock picks that do not overlap the ones in the ETFs, like exploration stage companies (can be either US listed or Canada listed).

    Thanks in advance

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  109. @Murphy
    Anytime buddy, glad to help when I can =]

    ...rest... please pass!

    w/v 'ching'

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  110. @Grasshopper and other grain traders

    Gotta love the volatility in this corn market.
    Two days now the market has made a good dip and right back up today. (Todays range July 7.41 to 7.59 (18c). I'm staying long. Would not buy right now 7.58 highs, look for a dip back to the 7.42-7.45 range. Big traders unsure whether they want to be long or short, whether to hold positions or just daytrade. Too many conflicting inputs, Wall Street unsettled, US growing condtions, planting progress, world weather, Russia lifting export ban, and POSX.

    If you are trading corn, trade it on its own fundamentals. I think too many traders try to trade corn based on what crude, PM's or POSX is doing. Those outside markets do matter, but maybe not so much in this old crop rationing market. GLTA. Back to work.

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  111. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  112. Turd: well said about the EU Times article.

    If anyone's interested in a comprehensive debunking of this story, including more on the background of the EU Times, then please see my post at: Gold and DSK

    Looks like gold's doing rather well today, anyway.

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  113. Jeanne d'Arc

    -------

    Hmm that is my credit union LOL!

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  114. @atlee -- I just changed the photo in my Google account, not sure why you're having trouble. Did you hit the 'Done editing' button after switching the picture?

    Alternately, you may also have to change your Blogger profile photo -- I am not sure which one blogspot accesses when choosing 'Google account' in the comment dropdown.

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  115. @ Devise

    Lived in the UK for 3 years when I was in the Air Force. My favorite phrase was "An articulated lory lost it load"

    38.40 looks smart. But, I think everyone will be surprised how high we go today. I am buying every dip starting at 38.20. I am using AGQ today.

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  116. @pailin

    i have noticed the easiest way to trade with silver for me is to wait for the raid, buy when RSI dips below and is turning back up.

    i usually exit based on trailing stop loss (based on atr multiple) or if I see volume start to drop. once i am out i have to wait for a retrigger

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  117. A couple more news days like this and gold might hit the target from turd's bottom.

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  118. BOOK IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! In glod we trust $1550

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  119. Thx atlee. I bought that dip and was too heavily invested. It was a smart sell for me at 38.40. Still holding a nice position at the moment.

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  120. Is there any concern that Gold is launching? Don't get me wrong, I'm ecstatic, just thought I'd check in w/the experts! :)

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  121. @atlee,

    Will we see 38.90 clear and reach 39.50 today ?

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  122. TF said...

    "Based on an EU Times report last year, I walked around for a weekend telling everyone I knew that the Deepwater Horizon was torpedoed by a North Korean submarine. Oops. Live and learn, I guess."

    This is a key reason I admire you, Turd. First, you admit... no, you advertise, the mistakes you make that most others try to hide. Second, you are one damn quick learner!

    With these key traits, it doesn't matter what you do... trading, blogging, yogurting (is that a word yet?)... you will be successful!

    - Jim M.

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  123. Been away for a few hours... hope the circus theme is still "on," but figure it's not b/c bozo just showed up!

    - Jim M.

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  124. Whouda guessed atlee was a flyboy :)

    @atlee
    You sense a major sentiment shift here, eh? I'm playing it a little safe for now, but I hope you're right..I like it and am tired of the fear.

    One good thing about today, it doesn't look like anybody got scared out of the longs. That's possibly a first, most raids force at least a few of us (collectively) out at exactly the wrong time.

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  125. @ LaMachinna

    I am no expert although I play one on internet blogs and I would postulate...

    YES good chance!

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  126. @ Timer

    Good chance!

    @ Palin

    air traffic controller at an RAF NATO base right after college. Owed them 4 years.

    Look at that silver chart!! That is a reversal.

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  127. Let's see what NOON brings us today?

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  128. @atlee
    Good experience to get with AF. If you rolled it into a career, great career too (aside from the long hours).
    I've largely done nothing with my life but be a pain in the @ss. Since I'm really good at it, I guess we can chalk that up to success :)

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  129. Franny, I too was guilty of not so careful reading. But I hope the info I provided is helpful to anyone considering a move to a PM IRA. But I must say, if tings keep going like this, I'll cash it out. Taxes and penalty will suck but what's left will be at my discretion. Sure as hell not Timmy Geithner's.

    We rolled a substantial a previous employer 401K holding into a mix of gold and silver back in '09. Talk about being in the right place at the right time, I just wish I'd done it even earlier. It was a great way to diversify our retirement funds.

    My big concern now is that the 10+ trillion in public and private 401K & IRA's is (and will remain) WAY too tempting for a broke and completely corrupt US "government" to keep their hands off. They've already hit up govt employee retirement funds, it won't be long until they come after private sector accounts as well.

    An early sign of much more to come was WI senator Herb Kohl's recent introduction of legislation that will make it harder for people to borrow against their own retirement monies. For your, ahem, financial "safety" mind you.

    I mean, God forbid one would be so silly to pull funds out of Fiat Fairyland and go buy something WAY risky like gold and silver! Oh heavens noo! Yes, the "government" needs to "help" us not make a serious mistake in judgement like that!

    I'll say this: from here on, ANYONE who spends another dime in Kohl's Department Stores would have to be a self-hating semi-moron. A victim of the mass Stockholm Syndrome outbreak. Folks, there are just way too many buying alternatives out there to put up with Kohl's crap. Don't put even a penny into this foul EE errand boy's pockets.

    Show Herb Kohl what you think of his great concern for your financial "safety". Hit him in the pocketbook and let's hear that piggy squeal. It sends a great message to the rest of the congress critters too: keep f*cking with our lives and money, and bitch, you gonna pay!

    So spread the word. Boycott Kohl's immediately.

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  130. I like to keep track of the cost of insurance (puts) on stocks and etfs, just to get a sense of market direction and volatility. Right now, two of the cheapest things to insure I can find are gld and tlt. I don't own any tlt but I just cashed in a tbt put spread at a nice little profit. I don't own any gld either but I do buy gld puts to protect my physical. I can protect my physical gold for about 1.5% a year. I don't care if gold goes down a couple of hundred bucks but I want to protect against the big losses, 30 or 40 per cent and gld puts can be had for pennies. So, my twisted logic validates TF's charts. I can understand gold but it's tough to accept long bond interest rates going lower...but apparently they are. It's like picking horses or betting football games...sometimes what happens makes no sense. My education in finance and economics is from the school of hard knocks but it appears to me Barnanke can protect the long bond or the dollar. Can't do both. Looks like he is choosing the long bond. Viola! QE III.

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  131. @ Pailin
    I think you are too modest!!! Commodity broker for a few years after the air force. Then independent trader. I studied pain in the ass though and today my wife says I have a Phd in it!

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  132. @Eric#1

    We're at the airport getting ready to leave for D.F. and I found this computer nnd signed on (sick sick sick!)

    Our DXD/UGL finally got gasoline.

    I doubt it, but if I can talk Josh into it, I'd like to spend a week in La Habana (I owe some expensive ceremonies.) But he hates Cuba (and probably won't go;)

    But if I do go and can't find internet access, keep the douchbags and trolls (you well know who the real ones are) in a cage until I rturn.


    Modupue,

    ab'orishaLukumíolOgúnFumito

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  133. btw: EU Times = "Sorcha Faal" / whatreally happened.com.

    Now that there's some of the wildest disinfo available anywhere on the 'net. Downright entertaining though, I'll give 'em that much. They're very creative.

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  134. @ frannyryan

    RE - Open Opportunity IRA - or rolling and IRA into one- As many here hold to the premise - that if you don't hold it - you don't own it. - I have to agree. Even with the "best" custodian the worst can happen ( seized by the Gov't) etc.

    Honestly, rather than trying to jump through hoops - it might be better to take the tax hit and take control, and buy Physical while you can - or take out a loan (401K) while you can.

    I guess it depends on how bullish or bearish one is on the World Economy. As much as the Bernake has the printing presses fired up - most of the new money is ones and zeros and not paper.

    The amount of Paper most banks have on hand is much smaller than we realize. Plastic has displaced the paper. During a collapse paper money will be in very short supply and very high demand - (to buy goods).

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  135. @ Frannyryan + grasshopper - here is the OOI IRA -

    Not affiliated

    http://www.passportira.com/unleash.html

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  136. I saw Denise posted Bill Fleck's interview. There's also a new KWN blog entry from Rick Rule. Essentially, Keep Stackin'...

    Rick Rule - Silver Shortage Continues, Financial Crisis Looms

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/1_Rick_Rule_-_Silver_Shortage_Continues%2C_Financial_Crisis_Looms.html

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  137. thank Turd.. I'm riding the waves..

    Any idea on WTI Crude? taking a beating again right now...

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  138. Senator Kohl is not running for re-election BTW. As for pulling my money out of my IRA, that would be the monster of all tax hits. 401k sounded like a good idea 35 years ago but like our mothers always said: "If it sounds too good to be true..."

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  139. Stock Market just took another leg down. More pressure on risk assets by the algorithms in charge of spot price once again (silver & somewhat gold). Don't worry, not anything to be concerned about, will be sorted out much like the first one possibly?

    Liking the fact that we are holding the support @ 38 in silver and gold just looks like a rock.

    I think we are heading to 1600+ in June like Turd originally though, and beyond... June is definitely going to be entertaining...

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  140. atlee

    Air Force ATC, now the "pattern is full" reference is understood...and it only took me four days to get it. I never indicated that I was a smart pilot.

    Cheers

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  141. Harald you have to ask yourself, tax hit or possible confiscation of your funds.

    What is worth more to you?

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  142. Another crazy day.

    I'm trying to figure out the gold move. I don't think it is 'QE3', I mean, BB says QE was to lower interest rates, and look at where rates are now, how do you possibly justify QE3?

    (Of course, in 3 to 6 months I can see it)

    Could be due to a weak dollar, but doesn't really seem to be following the USD, which really hasn't dropped much at all anyway (it's stronger against CAD)

    I think it's due to renewed Greece/Euro fears, possibly based on the news that the stress tests have been delayed.

    That makes more sense to me since silver is not participating.

    JMHO.

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  143. @ fast mover

    I may not be too smart either but still buying these dips. Is that avatar an F35? Kinda looks like a Mig29

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  144. can someone kick crude up the ass and get it back over 102 please...

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  145. @Shill
    Not necessarily confiscation, but forced "lock" into dollar asset (bonds, money market, etc) is highly likely.

    About to buy some XAG on this dip, maybe some XAU to

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  146. Feels like they really want the morning low of $37.60. Hmm... if so, I'llhave my first positive up and down trades of my silver life. But it ain't over yet...

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  147. This was a great rollercoaster ride. You don't often get this many rides, very sad I missed the first down/up, not missing the second :)

    It's all about painting gold. My opinion.

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  148. Maybe I'm just hoping for a bigger dip to buy, but I see silver meeting resistance at the 12 and 18 MA's rather than finding support there is a bad sign. IMO, another test of 37.4 is likely, 36 would not surprise me...

    (was typing a post on how important 38.20 was, but that fell as I was typing...)

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  149. Fired the guns earlier....almost missed the opportunity to BTFD. Reloaded and ready for second pass. Think we retest 37.60?

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  150. hehe Pailin. Feelin like you missed out on something this morning?

    This time I might have missed it. Waiting on 37.70

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  151. Got chicken when my gold ounce profit turned to a short-hop plane ticket on SWA. Sold my SLV puts at 37.85. At least I'll eat with it. Or maybe buy a dadgum phone that I can trade with so I can get back to day jail...

    Anybody think we have another leg down?

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  152. @ atlee

    Nice touch. US Grant, right?

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  153. bot 37.852

    not as strong signal as last time may still have some more coming to us.

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  154. in silver, on the daily live chart, if the slow stochastics stay above 80 readings, this will be the 3rd day. That qualifies as being imbedded. That is a very bullish sign and if you follow this trading methodology, which is very good, indicates we begin looking for buying opportunites on pullbacks toward the 18 day moving average.
    the 18 day moving average is 36.2o something on my chart today. Doesnt mean we have to go there.

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  155. @Shill

    I know, I know. I've heard talk of a "lifetime annuity." The govt. takes your money and pays you a fixed amount for the rest of your life and when you die, they keep the principal. Nothing to pass on to the grandchildren.

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  156. @HappyInTheWoods
    Yeah I missed out, but happy to get a 2nd chance. I'm looking to add one more position on this dip, on a long string down through 5min Bollinger. It might be very soon.

    Watching the clock too. Short covering should begin (I think) around 1pm.

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  157. Pailin/Yoni/Franny/Art:

    Thanks for your responses. Appreciate it.

    Anyone trading livestock? Any opinion on COW?

    Turd, mentioned on Saturday, that it was getting close to an entry point. Think that time may be now?

    Eugene

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  158. oh yea, we also have to take 39.45.

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  159. Or not. XAG moving away already. Oh well :)

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  160. Was out for a while and came home to a few random thoughts:

    Gold is my hero.

    Dow/Gold Ratio dropping like a stone. Yay! I have bet money on that.

    I sold puts on Dollar General today too. There's more than one way to make money around here, you know.

    Good Luck today. Don't be greedy.

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  161. @atlee
    Dunno about taking 39.45. The algos are indeed running things right now and who knows where they want things next. I may be taking my profit before then.

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  162. I know, I know. I've heard talk of a "lifetime annuity." The govt. takes your money and pays you a fixed amount for the rest of your life and when you die, they keep the principal. Nothing to pass on to the grandchildren.

    --------------------

    Actually its more than talk, there is a draft bill already in place. But hey I am not one to give financial advice...best of luck.

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  163. Animal

    GiddyUp on the UGL-DXD!

    Have a nice trip.

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  164. humahuaca

    How about macro is screwed, we are in deep shit so let's buy gold

    Nobody knows how end of qe and euro will end up but gold should hold

    Wasn't gold up last summer?

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  165. @Shill
    "Nothing to pass on to the grandchildren." This part is the best because it's a 100% estate tax w/o minimums, paperwork, and collection concerns (for IRS). You can see the appeal to a "small govt" lying/thieving Republican House.

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  166. Pailin said...
    "I've largely done nothing with my life but be a pain in the @ss. Since I'm really good at it, I guess we can chalk that up to success :) "

    Reminds me of a country song... I'm really good at drinkin' beer

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  167. And now the ride back up :)
    Oh I love it.
    Love it. Love it. Love it.

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  168. Picked up my last batch of AGQ on the last dip, I'm loaded up full, it's time to rock and roll......

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  169. Step out for a meeting, and the my oh my, gold is humming.

    How about that NGD? Nice upgrade today. Atlee, your spread is a thing of beauty today.

    My bid for CDE filled at 26.97. JAG at 5.21.

    TRE-- I am simply amazed it has kept up and added to its strength. I keep telling myself, "It's TRE. It's gonna get hammered again." But it doesn't.

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  170. I would cash out all retirement accounts and put it all into gold & silver coins to avoid the tax man. The gov is going to confiscate everyones everything except what is stashed away from their prying eyes. Just my opinion.

    You have a gold coin it buys such and such. In a few years the coin is worth more but still buys the same such and such. You did not make a profit but the gov claims you made a profit and wants half. You are are now stuck with half an ounce coin. That is gov confiscation of your wealth. pure and simple.

    after the gov screws everyone with taxes then they will be forced to come out with gold and silver coins. but you will have already lost half your coins to taxes.

    the rally cry of the gov.

    PAY ME NOW OR PAY ME LATER.

    I would rather pay now.

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  171. Shill said...
    I know, I know. I've heard talk of a "lifetime annuity." The govt. takes your money and pays you a fixed amount for the rest of your life and when you die, they keep the principal. Nothing to pass on to the grandchildren.
    ++++++++++++

    Of course they will spend all the money immediately and then have to borrow to pay you your small anuity. Then they will default.

    The problems is the Banks and the Federal Reserve is the King of the Corruption. It is a foreign owned company bank that has total control over our entire economy. We are slaves to a Bankster.

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  172. Dont want to indulge in scare mongering but didn't we have a similar scenario just prior to May day.

    Gold went zooming up to 1565 but silver was stuck at 49.

    Also there is some solar eclipse tomorrow. Wonder how that will affect commodities.

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  173. A solar eclipse affecting PMs???

    This is indeed Bizarro World, with all due respect!

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  174. Just a reminder as well..... according to my charts, Monday is a Asian stock market holiday.

    I am not smart enough to know if that is important.

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  175. @extremistan,

    I don't like the GDX and GDXJ ETFs because they are ripe for manipulation from the hedgies and suffer from decay due to mgt. expenses.

    My book is composed of the following.

    BPM.V, CCE.V, CMA.V, EDR.TO, FAU.V, GPR.TO, HTM, SAC.TO

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  176. am I the only one alarmed by not retaking/holding 38.10-38.20?

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  177. @uptofreedom
    I'm not worried yet. The move down was slow, the move back up was very fast. It had to settle and we're in the COMEX close zone that is traditionally down. If we can't move up nicely by close of NYSE...that's a different thing.

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  178. @uptofreedom

    alarmed- not really, annoyed, impatient- yes

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  179. wow crude is really being taken down

    thanks pailn...good trading day so far recovered 30% of may losses today

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