Thursday, June 2, 2011

Turd DumDum

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCnEHSJX9UY
"I'm sorry, my name is Turd".
"No, your name DumDum".

Look, I try to do everything right on this end but I'm not in control...(yet)...so I'm at the mercy of TPTB just like you are. The stock market is down a little. The dollar is down a little, too. Yet the entire commodity complex, with the exception of the grains, is getting whacked. The PMs are getting hit particularly hard as silver is down about $2.50 from yesterday at this time. Why? Is it the Primary Dealers of the Fed doing their Master's bidding through their prop desks, ruthlessly driving back commodity prices in preparation of QE3? I think you know the answer to that but ZH chimes in to help you along the way:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/commodity-complex-pummeled-preparation-qe-3

As mentioned in the previous post, The Comex isn't failing tomorrow but the supply of physical silver for delivery in July is below the level to settle even 5,000 contracts. This fundamental must, eventually, carry some weight in the "market". However, with QE to infinity assured, we can't know for certain how far the C/C/C will go in trying to collapse PM and crude prices at the behest of The Fed. Here are some charts for your guide but caution reigns supreme. This is still not for the faint of heart and nothing is certain. If you must play, play just a little. Right now, I have 2 July 40s and 2 July 45s. I have 1 Aug 1550 and 1 July $102 crude. That's it. No big positions and no big risk.

Hang in there. More later. TF



188 comments:

  1. Waiting to buy my monthly 20 oz. of Ag after getting paid, so far I am glad I've waited for the price to drop. Blatant manipulation by the EE, yet it just lets us afford our silver at a lower price. Last month bought at around 50, then saw the next day how the price took a cliff-dive. No matter, the game goes on.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Article by Ted Butler on the Nickel default in '06

    http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1156198042.php

    cheers! Stack it up!

    ReplyDelete
  3. @ Turd
    The markets are already (and have been for some time) unpredictable from a chart analysis point of view. Said differently, the EE has been able to make "course corrections" of it's choosing at will. Given their pernicious desire to keep silver down as low as possible, and a regulatory system that is aiding and abetting them, your prediction of $42-44 seems highly unlikely. It also is evidence that your experience of waking up to the reality of our predicament remains incomplete. It's as if you've finally allowed the thought of what is really happening to penetrate your defense system, but you still remain in denial (probably because you want to continue to believe that the tools of your trade, on which so much of your public persona is based, are still valid). To fully admit that chart analysis is out of it's depth in this market manipulated world we live in, reduces you to one of us: just another voice believing that stacking is the only recourse in an economic world that is sure to collapse. Trader Dan has had his own slow conversion experience with all of this. While disempowering to no longer know when the EE will pulverize your predictions, it must also be liberating because you can stop spinning your wheels, reduce your frustration and anger levels, and just settle in for the ride.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @Cookie, from the previous thread...

    no I didn't - wish I had!

    I'm think mid term so hopefully within a few weeks after a few more BTFDs I should be ok.

    Crappy birthday tomorrow though!

    ReplyDelete
  5. I believe that TPTB do their best to control the economy and that most of the outcomes are exactly what they were trying to achieve. I think Turd's comment regarding silver (WTFK) is exactly what they want. They wanted to create uncertainty and fear and that is what they did.

    Turd, thank you for being honest enough to say WTFK.

    ReplyDelete
  6. @silberblick,
    Turd's a lot more helpful than you. This is certainly an area where your "experience" is incomplete.

    So when you say, "one of us", I really don't think you should include Turd. Turd can help.

    ReplyDelete
  7. If they are going drive it down, why can't they just go ahead and get down below 30 so I can really stock up?

    ReplyDelete
  8. @sockeye
    Not sure what STSOOM means. Based on the context of your post it didn't seem good. Sorry I was splashing in the beach instead of posting. I'd like a little more panic so I can finish loading up.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ncot-
    i think what he has been saying all along was that we were due for a bigger correction than what we got, and we should have gone closer to the 200 dma, which is 28$ silver.
    i think we will go back to 33 and maybe 28, mostly because i think the general markets are about to fall apart here...
    i'm short s&p 500 at 1330 and silver at 38.

    ReplyDelete
  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Found this over on skf board. How the PTB handle us retailers. This is hilarious:

    http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/1306911566631.gif

    ReplyDelete
  12. Pretty sure I know what the WTF stands for, What is the K?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Keep posting Turd!
    Was a bit pissed off due to the selloff, untill my girlfriend asked me "is it again time to buy rounds dear?". How cool is that!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ah, the W is Who and the K is Knows. Duh

    ReplyDelete
  15. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

    FOMC meets June 21-22, not surprising 'deflation' pitch is the flavour of the day coupled with brutal economic reports 'planned' to come out at this time.

    Interested in reading the Fed's logic - housing/employment stink while inflation remains subdued, in the eyes of the Fed. Dual mandate, imo, screams for QE to infinity.

    Not sure if FOMC can initiate QE3 without debt ceiling being raised. If not, no QE3 on June 21.

    Perhaps FOMC will discuss need for QE3 but contingent on approval of debt ceiling raise. Fed's have green light for QE3 so if they don't make an announcement, not sure how the Fed spins the need for QE3 as, again, housing/unemployment stink.

    Notwithstanding, perhaps while the Fed's have the green light, they might be afraid they'll be blamed for the consequences of QE3. Ergo, may need some further cover.

    The market has been and is begging for easy money via continued QE. If they don't do it, suspect Fed will need to be begged by congress/markets/constituents for QE. If housing/unemployment won't do it, raises the probabilities of a more than moderate decline in equity markets.

    Perhaps then, the Fed needs further 'begging' so that post QE3, the Fed has clear cover to continue indefinite QE.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Charting markets never works. Markets do not follow patterns. They go down when someone sells and go up when someone buys. Only thing that tells you something about a market is approximate future supply and demand, meaning who (and how many) will buy in the future and who and how many will sell in the future.. so if there will be more buying pressure

    I am always amazed that people keep charting, when again and again it is demonstrated that it gives you about a 50/50 chance to succeed. Flipping a coin, or trading by if your dog scratches his butt or doesnt scratch his butt, would be that much easier.

    That being said, there are other data points like open interest that will indeed tell you how likely it is a market will move in either direction short and medium term, so some technical analysis, if you can call it that, is useful.

    Most important though is to have a feel for the market. That, and only that, separates the traders that lose money from those who make money.. or let's put it this way: increase or decrease your wealth.. since the kind of money we have in circulation today, at least long term, won't really determine who is wealthy and who is not.

    Turd's calls, at least in the medium term (noone can really call markets short term), have been on so far, so I'd say he has the feel for the market. And he is definitely no dum dum ;).

    ReplyDelete
  17. @Titus

    Chart analysis has now been reduced to a quasi voodoo cult practice. It doesn't take a lot of "experience" to see this (if you take your blinders off). I believe that not taking note of this fact could cost a person lots of FRNs. That having been said, we'll be waiting to see how your paper trading goes based on chart analysis. Be sure to submit regular reports for our evaluation.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anybody else see a great opp to buy some phyzz online at lower prices then turn and sell for a quick gain?

    Might help make up what I lost to that raven-haired temptress crude.

    Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
  19. suggestions of where to buy physical silver in large quantities ...also do you end up placing some at home , bury some, safety deposit box...geez i hate thinking like this

    ReplyDelete
  20. I wish they would push silver down a few more bucks cause I really want a monster box. Already have a nice position so I am just patiently waiting for another large raid so I can make a Monster purchase! Gold & Silver Bitchez!

    Btw what does ee stand for?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  21. @tesla.

    be polite. don't denigrate your self by using such language. take stock of yourself man.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Re: PSLV

    Turd – Like many of the others here I would be very appreciative if you could give us your opinion on PSLV specifically. We do respect your words. With JPM being the custodian of SLV, that’s like the fox guarding the hen house. Eric Sprott is well respected though, I believe his books (accounting) are much more transparent than that of SLV, plus the silver “supposedly” resides in the vaults of the Royal Canadian Mint. As a previous poster said though, all ETFs will become suspect so I’m sure that short term PSLV will get drug down when TSHTF. Not sure of the long term impact though.

    I buy lots of physical, but I have a boat load of PSLV in an IRA.

    @ Pailin – Would love to hear your thoughts on PSLV since it’s part of your core and your words are well respected here as well.

    Re: Evil’s comments in previous thread.

    Is this the same Evil who several weeks ago told us the market and banking system were going to crash in the following week (that week has passed) and that your boss told you to empty your bank and brokerage accounts – based on your computer’s sophisticated modeling signals?

    ReplyDelete
  23. @ silberbick

    What is the desired result of your attack on Turd? What are you attempting to accomplish?

    Turd will not respond to you but I damn well will.

    It is not necessary that you direct your attack at Turd unless you feel inferior and need to try position yourself as superior. That is how it comes across.

    You are the dogshit that I occasionally have to scrape from the bottom of my shoe.

    You are the dead frog that I toss from my pool skimmer some mornings.

    In short, you have nothing to contribute ecxept your own low self esteem.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SSK in the bunker here. Raid hat on. Protective clothing secured. Got the Rolling Stones giving me succor. Flashing raid sirens nearly finished. Waiting for the all clear signal. Gonna be one fucking hell of a FUBM coming. I cannot wait to take it to these c#$^s.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Turd,

    I was reading Martin Armstong's latest post. He mentioned that sometimes trucks would be set out driving around full of grain and were not included in the inventory report. The report on inventory would be lower than expected and a price would spike. Is it possible the COMEX is not reporting silver that is sitting in trucks somewhere.

    Love your blog. Keep up the great work.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ncot-
    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com
    his calls have been unreal.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Btw, I hope noone is selling here.

    Shouldn't be a buying opportunity here either, but under 35 it probably would be.

    I personally am sitting on profits from all year (I hold paper long term). Punched out when we went under 40, and re-established a position last week at an average of 35,1. I'd be at zero (0 profits) for the year at 26, 27$. You can see though I really doubt that will happen, since if I'd believe so, I'd have the choice to lighten up here at 36 while still making a profit on that position I established at 35.

    ReplyDelete
  28. @silberblick,
    Yes. TA has always been a "quasi voodoo cult practice". So what? That was not my point.

    ReplyDelete
  29. @Cookie, thanks.

    I dont believe anyone is always right or wrong. But I just steer clear of people who give extreme quotes.

    I'm not entirely convinced of all the people who say Silver will be $100 this year.. look at WKN, overly bullish for my liking..

    Newbies get these numbers of $22 an $100 dollars and think they can just go long or short and these will hit.

    I'm still hoping we're mid-bounce from 33 and aiming for high 38's or 39's.. So far we're closer to 38 than 33 or 28.

    I stress, "so far" as Turd says WTFK

    ReplyDelete
  30. Roland: What is a "large quantity" of silver? Tulving has a usual minimum order of 500 ounces and he has about 350,000 ounces total of various types of silver in stock.

    ReplyDelete
  31. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/done-deal-reuters-reports-new-greek-3-year-adustment-plan-has-been-agreed-can-kicked-another

    all's ok in Greece apparently.

    should see euro rise & USD fall? Who knows in bizarro world.

    Ball's in US' court - suspect neither US, Euro zone nor China want to be the 1st to set the collapse in motion - better if history blames on someone else first.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Marin's Post:
    http://www.10sigma.com/files/Martin%20Armstrong%20Biography%20May%202011.pdf

    The Interesting Bit:
    The ethics that had dominated the commodity markets prior to 1980 once confined to the agricultural marketplace was infecting everything. Where grains would be stored in “official” reporting warehouses that served for delivery purposes on the futures markets, yet were not exclusive, became the tool for manipulating statistics. Agricultural products were often loaded into trucks and driven around when it came time to report the inventories. This created the false image of shortages causing prices to surge for a few days.
    This game was spreading to all other markets from the commodity world. It was set in motion most likely by the merger of PhiBro (Philips Brothers) and Salomon Brothers, of Warren Buffett fame when he later assumed control of both firms, and Goldman Sachs’ takeover of J. Aaron,
    from which its current Chairman Lloyd Blankfien emerged.

    ReplyDelete
  33. @atlee

    I will not respond to your uncivil use of language. Learn to be express yourself in a way that is more becoming for a person of your age.

    @ everybody else

    Those who are less emotional will surely understand the point I am making: (1) that while turd's intentions have always been good, what he has to offer is no longer as useful as it once was. Chart analysis on silver is circumscribed to the point that it is pretty much useless now, and (2) waking up to this reality (and getting out of paper and starting to stack) has been a long road for some.

    ReplyDelete
  34. @Cookie, yeah I've read that blog..

    overly bearish for my liking and rather cocky sounding person...

    Seems to be on it with S P but not enough track record on Silver for me to 'follow'

    ReplyDelete
  35. you tell him, atlee... :)

    feels like this raid we just experience failed. didn't trigger the waterfall they were hoping for. looks to me like they've given up. may be too soon to call, but we've cruised back up thru some minor resistance points that got defended yesterday.

    weak raid, didn't work.

    ReplyDelete
  36. @Dr. Jerome Thanks for the link

    Ted -has a lot of great insight

    ReplyDelete
  37. Who had the balls to buy NGD at 9.71? Not me. Someone did though. How about SLW at 34.55? Not me, but someone did.

    Calling the bottoms is near impossible. Turd has nailed the tops. Bottoms are proving trickier. The same goes for the risk reward. Upside is capped. Downside is whenever the selling stops. At one point today, I had a week of hard fought gains wiped out in two hours. Downside is staggering. One of these days the upside will be too.

    ReplyDelete
  38. @LevelHeaded

    STSOOM = Scared The Shit Out Of Me.

    You were supposed to laugh.

    I greatly admire your ability to buy on the dip. Can you share a bit on how you pick your price ahead of time? and especially how you handle what to do if it keeps falling.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  39. Turd (or anyone), I have a bunch of 2013 call options on SLV. To what extent do you think these could be in peril, and how, if the Comex defaults?

    Thanks for yout thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  40. what is ee referring to?

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi All,

    Can anyone explain to a n00b how a 'raid' works?
    As I understand it, TPTB have vast amounts of silver to sell, when they sell large quantities it floods the market bringing down prices. (though I'm probably wrong)
    TPTB must only have a finite amount to sell before they can no longer influence the market unless they start buying back what they have just sold, if they are indeed buying back then wouldnt that just reverse the raid they have just orchestrated?


    PS: TF, Great board, keep up the insightful posts.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Tinfoil Cap time or is it? -Latest E.Coli outbreak by accident or by design?

    PM price moves? By accident or by design?

    "I'm just sayin'"

    ReplyDelete
  43. Dave T: Everyone I have read agrees Sprott has the physical.

    The question is why would anyone want to pay a 17% premium. See:
    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAy8x4Mq0aSdEsyeFFUTERtY2JHZ05uRU5PV21KZkE&hl=en&authkey=CPmaiOsH#gid=1

    You can get physical for a significantly smaller premium. If you need to stay in paper then there are alternatives which have much lower premiums. My own choice is SIVR.

    PS. Turd, could you do a post on the quality of the various paper silver options?

    ReplyDelete
  44. pasttense..thank you .well north of 500 ounces . im just seeing the + spot prices and they seem extraordinarily high
    assuming its like everything else shop till you drop

    ReplyDelete
  45. and one last thing directed at all the cross talkers: turd is a big boy and can respond (if he so choses) to posts directed at him. it is not necessary for others to speak for him.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Actually Silberblick makes a larger point that's worth contemplating, regardless of whether that point is directed to Turd. And that's this: a thesis that the precious metals futures markets are highly manipulated is incompatible with pattern recognition. Instead of being a false dilemma, it is indeed an actual dilemma.

    Personally, I don't buy the manipulation thesis. Never have. That's why I think Turd's pattern recognition is actually quite good. Very good indeed. But the manipulation thesis is contra to the usefulness of pattern recognition. The two approaches, or explanations if you will, are mutually exclusive.

    Which brings me to a question I think Turd should address: when are you going to drop the manipulation thesis? It's not particularly useful, adds nothing but drama, and becomes a crutch narrative upon which every tick can be explained.

    Again, I prefer the pattern recognition.

    G

    ReplyDelete
  47. The first rule of investing is "Never invest in something you don't understand". Well, I think commodities have reached that point for me. Over a period of years, I'm sure the fundamentals will win, but over any shorter period I have no faith that there is any predictability in the commodity market. If the EEs want silver to run to 50, it will run to 50. If they want it down at 30, it will be at 30. And I know I can't guess where the EE wants it at on any given day.

    I don't believe that the COMEX will default, unless TPTB want it to. They will change definitions, regulations, and laws until they win.

    So for me, from now on it will be buying physical, in anticipation of using it years from now when fundamentals kick in, or buying paper at the very bottom of a run and taking a nap til the top. Trying to trade in the middle of a run has worn me out.

    Just my .02

    ReplyDelete
  48. The follow-up to my above question is: if my 2013 call options on SLV are going to fail somehow (are they? how?), what is the alternative in the way of silver options?

    Thanks to all; I think the answers to these questions will have application to more than just me.

    ReplyDelete
  49. silberblick said...

    and one last thing directed at all the cross talkers: turd is a big boy and can respond (if he so choses) to posts directed at him. it is not necessary for others to speak for him.


    ----------------

    Fuck off already, you said your peace, let it go.

    ReplyDelete
  50. @silberblick -- thank you for your cool-headed assessment of absolutely objective reality.

    Also for your insightful contribution and enlightening insight and guidance as to what CAN or SHOULD be done, seeing as Turd is but a blinded, emotional hack whose mumbo-jumbo's time has passed.

    Now, if you please, wipe the slobber off your chin before it messes up the floor here, and find yourself a more appropriate perch or cave from which to launch your attacks. A few suggestions:

    http://www.redbubble.com/people/cdobbs/art/2371014-the-university-of-texas-tower

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/harpkit/2726966617/lightbox/

    http://farm1.static.flickr.com/40/87152783_f661e66e56.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  51. Crude is starting to impress me with how many times it's been knocked under 100, yet it always claws it's way back.

    ReplyDelete
  52. JD said...

    what is ee referring to?
    Evil Empire

    ReplyDelete
  53. @Portuguesedanny
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/anatomy-of-ee-attack.html

    Please learn to use Google, it can be a useful tool. The Advanced Search function allows you to search specific sites (like this one)

    site:http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com anatomy raid

    ReplyDelete
  54. My point is not that Turd should give up but that he not be so hard on himself when he seemingly "misses it" and that people not be so reliant on his day to day projections for their trading because he is not privy to certain unforseen information or just that the damn criminals do whatever they like. There is still a wealth of information here. Thank you for what you do Turd.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I think you meant "piece". Marked on my calander a couple of months ago that the Asian markets are closed on the 4th thru 7th of June for some holiday. The beat the shit out of us the last time this happened - be prepared! Not that they need it, but another great opportunity to break it down further into the weekend and early next week.

    I haven't sold a thing in the last 5 weeks and have no intention of doing so. I can't wait for the new site that will hopefully have some type of "ignore" feature. JD.

    ReplyDelete
  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Looks like silver is chugging back up after the EE attack. I expect us to be back at $37 by late tonight or early AM tomorrow...well, baring another EE attack. I think the EE has done enough damage and they're going back into their cave to sleep until the next time.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Some observations:

    Part one.

    I have found myself fascinated with the Greek default situation. I have been hoping the Greeks default, but all the time basically realizing that there will be no default, but instead, bailout. I wish I was wrong, but, it seems obvious.

    Anyhow, why the importance of the Greek situation relative to PM's? Endgame.

    I've been reading all the posts and comments on here, for past week. Just gathering and processing information, nothing special; I wanted to have enough information to intelligently post my analysis.

    I have it now.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Kiwi,

    I hear you man. You reach a certain point where your sanity is more important than making fiat.

    For me, the irrationality of the silver market expressed itself with SLW in the month of April. Then the correction. And even today.

    I don't think anyone can truly understand who these short sellers are, what there motivations are, or when they are going to tank the market next. Churchill's words about Russia come to mind: "It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma."

    The whole pm community is trying to flush out the mystery here. Conspiracy theories abound. As a trader, I have to accept the fact that I no longer understand the markets. I can either throw in the towel, or trade to the best of my ability (with the help of Turd, Trader Dan and some others).

    But yeah, it will drive you insane.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Yes, EE = Evil Empire...I actually spent 15 minutes googling for that a couple months ago.

    ReplyDelete
  61. kiwi, the beauty of holding the physical is one eliminates all counter party risk. It is fun just watching and learning. "They" can literally paint the tape, report whatever economic data they want, etc. whenever they want.

    Moreover, if one does trade, one is assuming their return will be greater than whatever return one would obtain by purchasing the physical metal today.

    Said it before - sometimes to compete one must stop playing. When the rules and odds of the game are so stacked against the players, why play? One competes by buying physical gold & silver and maximizing the # of ounces.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I am officially making money (again) with CDE. This is the swing trade right now. Not a trade for people who cannot afford to lose their shirt, I might add.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I'm such an amateur I don't even trust my ability to read charts, so somebody who knows what they're doing please check me here.

    I think I'm seeing an identical bounce upward in silver and gold at precisely the same time. Tiny bounces in gold and silver straight at that 12 mark.

    Is it common for G&S to move in tandem like this? Just looks weird to me.

    ReplyDelete
  64. will be enlightening to see if 36.16 holds here... at this point should take a raid to bust that.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Wow, Silver is hella strong. Those bastards keep slamming it hard but Silver just keeps getting back up off the mat, dusts itself off and comes back for more.

    Reminds me of that Family Guy episode where some old lady is in the ring (Jane Fonda?) with Mike Tyson and he just keeps beating her down but she just keeps popping back up. Laughed my butt off.. Little harder to laugh at this of course.

    ReplyDelete
  66. @silberblick, I completely agree with what you said; just ignore the minions on this board. You were making a valid point and the sheep come out defending Turd when there's nothing to defend.

    This board is great for pumping, but when it comes to discussing anything else(the idea that there will be no QE3) the monkeys go bananas. Admittedly I barely scan the comment section here anymore, but I did see your post and then the monkeys attacking you for it. :)

    ReplyDelete
  67. Turd, After reading silberblick's comments, I want to revise what I said above. I don't know how many people read this blog, but I have noticed that when you state support and resistance areas, the metals quite often perform exactly as you stated. I have to believe that just stating those levels is having an affect on traders and consequently the markets. Don't let them win....keep guiding us. We are a force to be reckoned with if we stand together. This goes for you to atlee and others who put themselves out there with their own analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Why does one day's action have so many knickers in a knot?

    Start with an assumption that any movement in silver less than 10% in a day is absolutely normal. UP or DOWN.

    If one is going to trade and can't accomodate 10% in a day it's going to be a very short experience.

    It's only 6% from yesterday's top to today's trough. THIS IS NORMAL.

    The world hasn't changed and it is never a secret that whether one puts the label Manipulation or Speculation there are many 5% days in a month UP and DOWN. Plus a few 8-10% days.

    Further, there might be a 20% day. That won't be a normal day but it won't be the first time it happened either. Be prepared.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Dollar Index at new lows... Look out below...

    Also, unemployment numbers mean weak dollar tomorrow? The market may have already priced in some crap + weak dollar tomorrow = rally somehow?

    I have no idea anymore :)

    ReplyDelete
  70. No doubt others are seeing the recent turn in the USDX pattern, but starting last week the USD began to trade once again in the same direction as US domestic economic data. In addition, the USDX has been a very popular trade thesis among, how shall I put it--naive contrarians--who have tried all year to go long the USD as Risk Off trade. Not only had that effort not worked out, but, we are now seeing that the USDX works only for periods up to 72 hours as a Risk Off asset. And the oscillation keeps descending to boot: every rally starts from a lower point, and reaches a lower point before rolling over.

    I've personally been bearish on the USD since 1998. I was very wrong through 2002, obviously--which saw the high. But something to contmplate here is as follows:

    Alot of the USD carry trade was actually blown out starting in the post 2008 financial crisis period. Equally, I don't think many have appreciated that the USD, for however much it was shorted for carry, remained and remains to this day a structurally long asset in the world. Post 2008, the production of new USTreasuries has only exacerbated this length.

    I think alot of the post 2008 USD long positions were not only via UST purchases but also just simple plays on a recovering United States. Let's not forget, most people in the world suffer from Normalcy Bias. They thought we had a bad, but standard, recession. The US juggernaut would rise in V formation out of the crisis, and reward USD longs (who had purchased USD assets).

    Thus, we get to my idea which is curiously a rather conventional one (during non conventional times): the world is throwing in the towel on the US, and its ability to lead an economic recovery.

    Wow. The USDX has ticked down hard just as I wrote this in the past 5 minutes.

    G

    ReplyDelete
  71. TBT has been good to me today :)

    ReplyDelete
  72. yeah, everytime I look at the POSX, it screams, to me at least, like it wants to puke.

    ReplyDelete
  73. So now that Greece is bailed out ( again ) who is going to bail out the US?

    ReplyDelete
  74. @silverblick

    Those who are less emotional will surely understand the point I am making: (1) that while turd's intentions have always been good, what he has to offer is no longer as useful as it once was. Chart analysis on silver is circumscribed to the point that it is pretty much useless now, and (2) waking up to this reality (and getting out of paper and starting to stack) has been a long road for some.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++

    I see it differently. I support Turd more than 100%

    I do respect your view. However, I disagree that you should criticize him. Better for you to do as Turd does. I suggest that you share your inner belief about the future & trading. That would be very good for you and for everyone. For the more you give, the more you shall receive.

    You imply that because the market came down that Turd was wrong or traded wrong. That is not true. The correct way to trade is to hold the position and be willing to allow it to come back against you. How else will a trader learn to ride the trend.

    In the book Reminescenses of a Stock Operator Jesse Livermore shares how he was telling this guy in a ticker house how the market was going to make a correction and he should sell. The other person said no. It was a bull market and too hard to establish a position and the market might keep going up. He would rather hold his position through the pull back so he has it when it goes back up.

    Turd has Traded Correctly here. I congratulate Turd on Trading Correctly. The outcome does not determine if you traded correctly or not. The results at the end of 100 trades will determine if he traded correctly or not.

    Good job Turd. Just keep following your inner truth.

    The problem you perceive that other newbies might follow Turd too closely and lose their money is good for the loser to learn to follow their own inner self.

    ReplyDelete
  75. So the COMEX doesn't have enough inventory to settle 5000 contracts. Does anyone know how many contracts were settled during the last few expiry periods? Is that info public?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Just a note to Gregor.us -

    The way Turd interprets charts and talks about manipulation work very well and are not at odds with one another as you are trying to frame it. The manipulators often get into patterns and ways of doing things, this is reflected when you chart it. Sometimes they change the way they manipulate, so the way you read things has to change and a new pattern will eventually emerge. When that happens they will move the ball again.

    "It's not rocket appliance" as the boys from Trailer Park Boys would say it. The manipulators change things from time to time when it benefits them.

    You may not believe that the silver market has been manipulated, but even a member of the CFTC has come out and said he believes it has been manipulated. It is time to pull your head out of the sand.

    ReplyDelete
  77. getting into interesting time period--day before jobs report and after comex close.

    patterns work till they do not, which is why you have to pay attention to all the tools available.

    I am still waiting for someone to tell me how our govt will function if no more printing occurs and the 2 trillion deficit manifested in 2 Trillion of new debt that would have been issued, is not?

    Where would the austerity programs begin? Social Security cuts for everybody (even those above 55) now? Medicare cuts. Pension cuts for current and future retirees at every govt level including GM?

    Defense (that's only 700 billion at most).

    We know whats is happening: we just do not know how it will ultimately unfold.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Whoops. Left out the connection to TA.

    The TA is still useful. Accept that there will be 10% noise on any given day.

    Do we really need Turd to explain normal?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Great posts TF. I've not missed a day in nearly six months. Hats off to all of the traders. Takes guts.
    Mood is absolutely changing on MSM. Reality setting in. Momentum toward the inevitable increases. I've been waiting patiently to trade previously mentioned assets for more shiny.
    I too see a little more downside.
    Decreasing debt, accumulating necessities, fishing, and tending to the gardens are the plan for the summer. My favorite girl's kids are Salmon fishing in Alaska. She's concerned about the Fukushima fallout. Throw them a quick thought?

    I wish all of you well.
    Thanks once again for the education.
    Nice to see you here Thomas M.
    Peace everybody

    ReplyDelete
  80. All: The only reason my very limited TA works at all is BECAUSE the PM "markets" are so manipulated. I've stated this repeatedly.

    I hate SLV and I don't trust it.
    I like PSLV and I trust Eric Sprott.
    There is a reason why investors are willing to pay such a steep premium to NAV to buy it.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Some observations, part two:

    The whole Greek situation reminds me of the initial TARP debacle. The correct capitalistic response to the big banks who were suddenly insolvent due to massive, imprudent risk taking, was receivership and liquidation, no matter the systemic risk.

    Instead, what happened? Bailouts galore, with outright lies by TPTB as to what was really happening. We all correctly identified the outcome, which was to go long precious metals, preferrably by stacking physical. Those who had better skills, traded paper.

    Where are we now? The sheeple still have not been told the truth. No one is in jail. No criminal prosecutions of note are ongoing. Interest rates are at historically unsustainably low rates. Yet, residential home prices continue to drop, year over year, and month over month. Unemployment numbers, even though cooked, still show massive weakness. Inflation, we are told, is miniscule, even though such non-essentials such as gasoline and food are not counted in the official rate. In the US, there is no job growth, and there are no prospects for job growth. The future is BLEAK, at best.

    WTF?

    TPTB will not allow failure of the currency, or the current system which keeps them in power. That is all one needs to understand. It is a simple truth, through which PM investing decisions can be filtered.

    Back to the Greek situation: TPTB will not allow failure. There, like in the US, the banks' debts will be backstopped by taxpayers, while more debt piles up. No default. I should have seen this. It is obvious.

    So, as to PM's, COMEX, etc., the simple analysis is really simple, and absolutely true: the RATE of acceleration towards the end of the Keynesian collapse is increasing. Is collapse near? Well, I don't know, but it sure feels like it. I do know that the collapse is sure closer now than it was one year ago. How much closer is unknown.

    As far as the COMEX defaulting, that whole conversation is fun to debate, but it really is simply one of semantics. The real analysis, is this: What if the COMEX defaults?

    The answer: So what? How does that affect the price of the ASE's or gold eagles I have stashed away? What does that do to the US dollar hegemony? Will that lead to more QE, and continued debasement of the dollar? What does that do as to the price of paper silver? Miners?

    There are two clear distinctions, as I see it. Going back to the Nixon fiasco, look at what the real effect was. People stopped believing the lies from the formerly respected institutions. The populace was awakened to begin questioning government. But, then what? TPTB still were in charge, and they adapted.

    So too must we adapt.

    Holders of physical silver will see their stash increase in value. Holders of paper silver will see their paper decline in value. Will this lead to revolution? No. Will this lead to anything but a blip on the radar? Yes. Why?

    Because the price of silver and the COMEX existence/function are only important to such a miniscule number of people, that it is basically irrelevant in the near term. What is important is the re-election campaign of BHO, and who is winning on American Idol.

    Let us not get all bogged down in the unimportant details.

    Thus, the focus should properly be upon what TPTB will do to see that BHO gets re-elected.

    Here is where the rubber hits the road. There is a ZERO chance that the economy will collapse before November 2012. There is a 100% chance of QE3, although it will be part stealth and will be renamed something else. The US dollar will continue to decrease in value. Silver and gold, physical, that is, will increase in value relative to the price of dollars. The spin will increase to absurd levels, as the sheeple are manipulated by the mainstream media. Stay the course. All will be good when gold and silver are at all time highs.

    Turd: thanks for the honesty, and humility. You are an amazing person. Keep it up.

    ReplyDelete
  82. On tech analysis:

    I, for one, have much respect for Turd's analysis and predictions.

    With tech analysis. what we are really measuring with it is crowd psychology and behavior. People are fairly predictable. In normal markets, TA is very useful.
    Now when you add in EE manipulation, we have another variable that is more difficult to explain, predict, and control. But we can divine something of their agenda from their actions and develop expectations of when they will intervene (attack). And we still have a market full of human investors who respond to the technicals on the charts --whether they are painted or natural.
    The real problem (for me, at least) is in acting logically upon the TA and not letting fear and greed cloud my decisions. I can draw some impressive lines on my charts that are usually correct. If I correlate this with Turd's charts--confirming or challenging my predictions, then I see a pretty solid guide developing... but my emotions mess things up. so, I will keep stacking physical.

    I went long on GLD after this morning's attack--will probably exit tonight. I am out of paper silver now and I holding shares in one silver miner.


    I think I'll go get my 100 oz bars out and hold them a while.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Pailin said...
    Anybody that is looking at unacceptable loss on paper silver under 36 may want to revisit the concept of the stop/loss. The 1hr and 4hr charts are very ugly down near resistance 36.50.


    Good advice there buddy, from the last thread.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Everyone knows that in this race to the bottom, the United States of America will be the last one to the bottom. Be assured of that. Every other country will implode (or be imploded) first, the US Dollar will be the last to go.
    Get ready for the New US Dollar. It will be the new world currency, no doubts about it. The CIA, NSA, FED and their cronies, the puppets in DC, they'll do anything - anything! - to preserve their power. You must not underestimate these crooks. If they need to genetically engineer an unstoppable strain of E. Coli to put Europe in crisis, they'll do it.

    Anyone who gets in the way of this will be dealt with. The only real foe is China and by extension Russia.

    IMF chiefs who advocate SDR or global basket? Sorry about that rape charge. GONE

    European Union hacks who think they are going to buy all our MBS two years ago and now start unloading them? Enjoy the cucumber salad. GONE

    Japan about to align with the Chinese Yuan trade agreement for oil? What's that, I can't hear you over the din from this HAARP machine. GONE

    Khadaffi wants to sell his oil for payment in gold bullion? Hope you have a tunnel outta there, buddy. GONE

    The list goes on.

    ReplyDelete
  85. silberblick ,

    How do you reconcile the drop in futures prices when silver inventory is so low? It does not add up. Either the inventory numbers are wrong or the demand for physical silver is not high. Some thing does not add up here. Do you really think the silver futures reflect reality? Do you really believe that paper silver is more vital and has more intrinsic value than physical silver?

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/comex-silver-inventories-reach-new-lows.html

    ReplyDelete
  86. Moody’s Investors Service says it expects to place the U.S. government’s rating under review for possible downgrade

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/06/02/growing-risk-of-a-short-lived-default-in-u-s-moodys/

    ReplyDelete
  87. @sockeye
    Thanks for the compliment. I must say it's easier to buy the dip if I've just sold at a good price and I want back in. So I can't really claim to be that brave.

    As for buying at a buy point, I typically like to buy in thirds. I will buy the first third early and the second third at "my number". I typically won't buy the last third until I "feel" the bottom in the rear view mirror. I always use stops but I try to keep them wide (and buy right) so they wont get hit, but you have to be willing to lose some money.

    As for picking the number, I have to always keep in mind that I'm doing my best to pick a number but I try not to be too dogmatic about it. I am willing to adjust. I choose 1510-1520 and 35 by comparing the price action now to the last up cycle in 1980. I also am expecting an inverted H&S on the silver chart which implied a move down to about 35. Also, areas of tight trading often times get tested from the top side like 35 was. Also, there were gaps on the GLD and SLV that were begging to be filled. The 200MA on the gold 120 minute chart is about 1518. Bolling band, moving average, trendlines, MACD all figure in at certain points. It is a bit of an art and it's not easy. The detractors claim it's impossible because they cant do it. I have tax returns that say it is possible.

    Also, can I please get a little more panic so I can fill my second third? My 1520.3 (aug gold) missed by ten cents.

    Hope that was helpful and not to blackboxish.

    ReplyDelete
  88. If only one could buy calls on PSLV.

    At the moment I'm kind of gambling that options on SLV won't blow up before I can hit the sell button as silver stalls at my $89 target.

    Does anyone think SLV or the options thereon will blow up sooner?

    ReplyDelete
  89. Turd, buddy, you've got to relax a little!

    Everything is playing out exactly as we all know it will. How many times have we all agreed: That the paper and spot PM markets would diverge? That the EE would try the very best to smash commodities into the ground to make them less attractive? That the financial system isn't just going to roll over and die peacefully in its sleep?

    Long-term, every factor and variable favors our side. This is going to be a brutal summer -- in more ways than just the economy -- better get used to it. Acknowledge and embrace the changes that are coming, otherwise let fear and doubt choke you.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Turd ,

    I have never posted before. I guess I am just not the joiner type.
    But I read and have been reading your blog and comments section
    everyday since almost the beginning.

    It must be very difficult to come fwd and be a leader we have so few.
    With the added responcebality that people may be using this info.
    I make and lose money every day trading futures. . I prepare for war everyday.
    If losses accrue there is no on to blame but myself.(I get advice from a lot of sources
    And a lot of other traders)

    I love your blog, your sense of humor, your style of writing. The most important
    Quality that I admire is your sense of wanting to help people that can not see as far down the road as
    You. Some people are saying there is light at the end of the tunnel and you are saying no
    Its a f—cking train. I thank you for that.

    On days like to day its tough.

    I stand here as one faceless individual saying that you make my life better in a lot of ways.
    This blog you have built is amazing, and I thank you for everything that you have done.

    ReplyDelete
  91. 74.28 touched twice I believe.

    ok, there goes 74.28.

    ReplyDelete
  92. @silverblick

    I trade real money. Large. Turd's "advice" is always, ALWAYS, stated that he could be wrong.

    Try taking delivery on crude? Do you need a truckload delivered? A yardful of corn, anywhere to put that? Truckload of bales of cotton??

    The ONLY way for me to trade these vehicles is futures. Turd's a trader. I'm a trader. We trade off what we *think* might happen.

    Turd publishes his calls. That's all.

    Any information I can get is always apprecated. Turd runs this site for free. Where are you going to get free information? A sell-sde broker? Get real.

    That said, you are welcome to skip this blog. You degrade the comments and are certainly not belpful.

    Please, constructive comments and debate are welcome. Attacks are not welcome.

    If you can't handle that, simply go away already.

    ReplyDelete
  93. I don't have any rational reason for thinking it will hold ..but if we get close to $35 today I'm buying.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Govt to lose $14B of auto bailout funds

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110601/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_autos_2

    Key word; Only

    ReplyDelete
  95. there is a reason why SLV and GLD have options and PHYS, CEF, GTU, and PSLV do not.

    too bad short sales on these could not be banned.

    In this business or endeavor "perfection" is imppossible. A good batting average is a winning deal.

    I can only attest to Turds BA since January and he would be batting cleanup on my team (maybe leadoff to get things going), but realistically as I said perfection is not achievable.

    Now--his ideas are well reasoned and thought out and backed up with data. That puts him ahead of 99.7% of those on Wall Street.

    maybe more.

    my guess is his ethics are pretty good too.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Spending all this time defending Turd is unproductive nonsense. No one who is criticizing him is going to be swayed by your arguments anyway.

    He's a very good analyst and that's why we read his blog. Let's spend time analyzing the markets instead of analyzing Turd.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Ladies and gentlemen fasten your seat belts, secure your belongings and keep your arms inside the car..our afternoon globex silver train thrill ride will be leaving the station shortly.

    ReplyDelete
  98. It's all extend & pretend. The end game comes and the Keynesian are scared; frightened to the deep dark black hole of the endless pit such souls are consigned. Who wouldn't be quaking as the power of the criminals gets exhausted through dilution of more lies; less and less effective as the truth shines self evident with each stroke of the debt clock. Each passing day. The EE's time is limited but we'll stand ready to make certain the dogs of wall street, in bed with our government goon imps, get the unquenchable realization of a traitors end. It's not the freedom the black hearted rat bastards subjected us honest citizen to endure. No! It's more constrictive than the flaxen cord of life; leading us to destruction. These partakers will be subjected to that which is stronger than the cords of death. It lay in an eternity of a chained bright recollection of all their guilt. Heaped up in time and now subjected upon them in remembrance through eternity. Yep! I'd be bringing in freight train loads of adult diapers for a whole lot of bullshitting absorption stacked up in distribution central; DC! What pray tell to absorb the pain, suffering, and compounded anguish through eternity will not be their choice either. A natural consequence of laws broken; an eternity wrapped in that straight jacket of ever constricting sorrow, ascending up forever and ever; which never dies. Other than this? The bankster fraudster are a swell bunch along with our dead head fed goons.

    ReplyDelete
  99. turd you rock

    silberblick , you have the stench of a mis information agent plant - go away please

    silver moving down a bit , getting ready to BTFD again - waiting

    ReplyDelete
  100. yes.. lets.. analyse 36 ....again....

    ReplyDelete
  101. Latest news:
    EU COMMISSION DENIES AGREEMENT ON NEW GREEK AID PLAN

    ReplyDelete
  102. EU commission denies agreement on new Greek aid plan @ Forex Factory

    http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=296991

    ReplyDelete
  103. @ievi - regarding buying at 35: you're right, there is no rational reason to buy at 35, there's no meaningful support there. 35.7 needs to hold for now, and if that's breached by more than 10-20 cents there's nothing to stop the drop until 33.5ish

    35.7 was breached earlier, and the only reason I think we avoided a waterfall then is that most stop losses were hit yesterday. Seems to me yday's raid is working in our favor here.

    buy at 35.7 if you think this will hold, or at 33.5ish if you don't.

    regarding your "train is leaving the station" comment: back that shit up or STFU.

    ReplyDelete
  104. If you want to trade silver you have to understand that JPM needs to survive. They need to crush the silver market from time to time in order to do this. If they are forced to default the whole house of cards will come crashing down and you won't be able to trade it on any electronic market.

    We are right back at the 100 DMA. A pop from here after a 50% retracement would be very positive. Otherwise it'll be low 30s by next week. I think it's a good time to slowly, SLOWLY start stacking up new positions. Disclosure: I'm an idiot who keeps buying into a market that regularly has 10% price swings.

    ReplyDelete
  105. One must have thick skin to play this racket. Sold my TBT for a nice quick payday. Now I sit and do nothing, these swings are too much for me.

    Now for a Prozac cocktail smothered in Grey Goose :)

    ReplyDelete
  106. goin to the beach. good luck all.

    ReplyDelete
  107. @uptofreedom

    relax man...I'm on your side

    I have no back up for the train comment...I'm just expecting another raid..just because they can...all I was trying to say was be prepared

    ReplyDelete
  108. silberblick

    1) Ignore the noise and instead put your energy into TA (which of course is still working) and cycles

    2) Look at the monthlies of all important markets (indexes, commodities, currencies, treasuries, ...) and enlighten yourself about what are the current trends - up or down?

    3) Pull up a 4h and draw the trendline connecting April 12 with May 11 and May 26.

    4) Checkout all recent NFP announcements and what happens a few days before with PMs.

    5) Checkout yesterdays European session and look what happened to again all other important markets in the process of the day.

    Now connect the dots. If done properly you are an important step ahead. Next time do it yourself - instead of blaming somebody else for not having done what you should have done.

    ReplyDelete
  109. As to the Greek bailout -

    after seeing the article on Zerohedge that some kind of bailout package had been agreed upon, I checked several German and Greek newspapers to try to corroborate it - couldn't find anything. So I don't place too much weight on the zerohedge article (yet). However, I did find an article stating that the Greek Prime Minister is to present a master plan on Friday.

    I have also been sort of hoping for a default, because I think a default would be in the best interest of the Greek people, and it would screw the banks, which is good from my point of view.

    I understand that the Greek government lost support of the opposition party recently, and there are daily protests against the austerity programs. Even if the government presents a deficit reduction program that would be acceptable to the IMF & EU, it is completely unclear to me that they would ever be able to implement such a program. Greeks are already beginning to withdraw their money from the banks ... a bank run is starting.

    If something dramatic is announced, I don't think it will be before the markets close on Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Well, two tubes of englehard rounds is heading my way soon from learcapital.com - I'm running out of money for physical purchases though. At least I got free fedex shipping with a coupon and they take personal checks. I hate wiring money when the bank charges $25 to do it, that's like another $0.50/oz premium I don't want to pay. The coupon I used was posted on a site, the coupon code was DE662 for $70 off the order btw. I've ordered sovereigns in the past (Eric #1 got me onto those, thanks!) and they keep letting me get free shipping so hell, why not. I can't afford 500 oz from tulving, lol.

    The wife and I still have our employeer 401K's but I've moved them to stable assets for the next couple months, because really, what is a couple months of gains given up (and the dow's been pretty flat, overall) in the long run if it saves us a end-of-QE2 massacre in the equities market.

    Our stacking is met its goal and we continue to add when we come into some money. We had a garage sale and advertised that payment would be "Cash or silver only". Nobody paid in silver, but we reinvested the profits. We made over $500 just on old crap from the basement, so if you have junk laying around you don't need or want turn that into some shiny PM's asap.

    Food preps are done.

    Still unable to get guns or ammo, just can't quite bring myself to do it with kids in the house, but I know we have to.

    Coin shop premiums are completely out of this world. Still $45 for eagles, $42 for maples. Generics $3.50 over spot (thats why I ordered online).

    ReplyDelete
  111. 3) refers to the silver chart

    ReplyDelete
  112. @ievi - I am relaxed, just saying that those sort of statements without any facts to back it up serve no purpose other than spreading FUD. Back your conclusions up with facts so we can see if we reach the same conclusion, or keep it zipped. that's all I'm sayin'...

    ReplyDelete
  113. Hey Turd - 1st Post but, been following your blog for a few months.

    Thanks for all your help and advice.

    Can I ask you to do a analysis on the daily Silver/Gold chart please.

    I have a gut feeling the EE will going to drive down the price of Silver to perhaps $30 - they are in trouble and will throw this everything to scare the long positions. Also this fits in nicely with the QE3 tactics. The have to drive commodities especially Silver down otherwise its game over very quickly...

    ReplyDelete
  114. Big Banks Cash In on Commodities
    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112847/banks-commodities-wsj?mod=bb-budgeting%20%20%20&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

    yeah...always nice to have a controlled demolition of the economy..

    ReplyDelete
  115. Some words of advice from Gordon Gecko himself, which are just as relevant today as they were when he first spoke them...

    "The most valuable commodity I know of is information."

    "I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought."

    ReplyDelete
  116. Thanks Turd! Now that I'm down 5 figures, I can look forward to eating stale crackers with a little toe-jam for flavor. You led me to a cliff and kicked me over the edge! And.........I'm only SO KIDDING! (Not about the 5 figures, but that's on me. I've done it before....just keep telling myself "Its money - we'll make more!") I've been a turd-addict since January....keep eating your fiber!


    @ silberPrick

    Care for a cracker?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Doing a rough chart on AGQ, drawing a line from the lows at 8/17/10 (start of the run), 1/26/11 (Turd's bottom #1), and 5/17/11 (Turd's bottom #2), and then down from the current drop they cross at about AGQ price of 165, which I guess is about $34 silver... for what it's worth.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Oh well isn't that nice. JPM making tons while raping all of us. Fucking slime bags. Agricultural commodities + natural gas + shorting the USD + buying gold after a raid/huge sell off.

    Period.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Folks, when it comes to paper you can't lump it all together. CEF and its sister company GTU are run by the Spicer family (CEF since 1961) and the family owns a huge percentage of CEF. I for one trust these funds. Do your research. I don't see why one would pay a huge premium for Sprott's fund when CEF can be had for a discount to its NAV.

    ReplyDelete
  120. @uptofreedom

    I had no conclusion ...I clearly said I had no rational reason for my decision to buy @ $35.

    I wasn't trying to spread fear or uncertainty. The comments were more like an acknowledgment of the fear and uncertainty that we are all feeling. I guess your a bit too sensitive for that, so in the future I will keep my mouth shut.

    ReplyDelete
  121. another day, another troll.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Seems highly unlikely the algos won't sell the snot out of the miners until at least 3.35. If the selling is bad enough, we could see more folks throwing in the towel during the last hour. I'm trying to figure out how to play this. Short what? Or buy at 3:35.

    Has anyone noticed HMY today. Trading like a champ. Like this little raid never happened.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Did the DOE inventories data come out precisely when the London PM markets closed?

    Take a look: http://i346.photobucket.com/albums/p434/JiveDadson/dailydip.png

    ReplyDelete
  124. So, I go into a coffee shop in New York the other morning with 3 friends and we settle into a booth. I offer the owner a 1-ounce silver bar in exchange for breakfast for 4; he says no problem. 10 minutes later, the guy comes over and says "I'm not going to give you your food, but I still want your silver." I tell him to fuck off and we get up to leave. As we're walking out, we notice Ben Bernanke, J-C Trichet, Angela Merkel and Nicky Sarkozy sharing a booth. The next thing we know, these douchebags are offering the owner the equivalent of $37 in fiat paper to tide him over. My friends and I shake our heads in amazement that we have to pay taxes to pay for these idiots to fuck things up so much. Meanwhile, the next morning, the fucking coffee shop is still open, but we're sure as shit not going there for breakfast again.

    That's how I see the Greek debt crisis--the idiots may bail you out with paper, but you're not getting any of my PMs unless I get a fucking island.

    ReplyDelete
  125. First and foremost, thanks, Turd, for your selfless devotion to this website, and for bringing small investors together. Although I am a long-term bullion investor, your site has helped me understand a trader's perspective, thereby improving my own understanding of the markets.

    I'd like to talk a little about the physical market, in that there is one aspect of this market no one is discussing. Folks, you must obliterate the Comex from your mind. In the long run, the Comex is but a fleeting phenomenon. It will die soon. How do I "know" this? I have 1,000,000,000 reasons. Read on.

    Having been born in India, and, having lived there for almost 30 years, I know a thing or two about the Asian way of life. There are more than 3.5 billion people in Asia today. More than 1 billion of these folks put their savings in gold and silver. The majority of these people have never stepped into a bank, and never will. They don't invest; they save. In gold and silver. Every chance they get.

    The bankers, together with their corporate partners in crime, decided to exploit the labor arbitrage situation across the world. But they overlooked a few things - most of all the propensity of Asians to save in things of real value.

    This is how I see things unfold. As the financial situation in Europe, the U.S. and Japan becomes untenable, institutional money in the West will flow into gold, driving its price beyond $2000/oz, easily, within the next twelve months. This is a formidable price in Asian currencies. In India, e.g., it translates into a price of about Rs90,000 per ounces. The only alternative left to most savers will be silver.
    Who would want to hold an ounce of gold when he can hold forty, or so, ounces of silver?
    Just imagine 1,000,000,000 people piling into silver. Most of these "investors" don't even know the size of the silver market. They have no idea how small it is. They are going to be buying it as a means to save. Even at 1 oz per person, you will see 1,000,000 ounces taken off the face of the earth. Can you imagine the panic on the part of industrial users? They can only aggravate the situation.

    Also remember that these folks are not traders. For most of them, this silver will be their savings, only to be sold in times of distress. By the time this savings tsunami hits, the Comex will die an unceremonious death.

    The bankers have created their Frankenstein, and they are about to meet him. Whether this will happen this year or next is hard to say, but happen it will. You are about to witness a cataclysm.

    Pray for two things: $2000 gold and a good monsoon in Asia, as has been forecast.

    And accumulate all the silver you can.

    ReplyDelete
  126. nearly 24hrs ago we were $1.30 odd higher..

    seems to like 36.0 but not 36.3...

    I miss 38.. I liked it... it seems like only yesterday.... oh, it was..

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ievi - it was your "train leaving the station" comment I've been referring to as needing to be backed up. Unfounded prognostications have no place here and only serve to distract/spread FUD.

    I hope you see why I'm saying that and it has nothing to do with me being sensitive. I know to ignore unfounded prognostications. But some may think you know what you're talking about. Keeping your mouth shut is the right call if you're about to "make a call" without the ability to back it up.

    That said... silver's showing some life! If we close above 36.4 I'll sleep A LOT better tonight!

    ReplyDelete
  128. I agree about the 36.4 close at NYSE close. I said earlier in the day to myself if we can finish at 36.4 it would be a decent sign, especially with the rally into COMEX close after the raid AFTER the london fix. If we close/would have closed in the 35s, then this raid would have more significance... not much time spent down in the 35s, yet that could mean we have a retest of that coming.

    With the US Dollar breaching lows going into a day where its outlook surely can't be seen as positive... it will be interesting how the dollar handles tomorrow.

    Also, I am liking the daily chart of gold's hammer. The climb back into the 1530 range mighty impressive.

    With that said, a stock market fall-down could throws a nice wild-card into the mix, so you can't be to sure of anything yet. Just have to stay nimble.

    ReplyDelete
  129. @kiwi - to determine price points for AGQ, I do this:

    current $silver - 36.24
    expected target - 34
    correction percent = (36.24-34)/36.24=0.0618
    .0618*2 = 0.1236 = ~12.4%
    100-12.4=87.6
    current AGQ price = 182.92
    182.92*.876=160.23

    you were close with 165... I'm not firing any more bullets until 33.5ish though, so my AGQ buys are lined up at 158 (based on math this morning, number may be off now gotta recalc...)

    ReplyDelete
  130. Gold is already about 14+ bucks off the low which is again giving us the signal that this pushdown will be short lived & giving TPTB a little room before the event.

    Being short Silver here is indeed MORE risky than being long with the pending news on Europe & QE3.

    ReplyDelete
  131. As if on cue, algos doing their thing. It will be interesting to see if the miners can pull off even a tiny rally in the last 25 minutes. If they do, I will use the strength to pare down the portfolio.

    ReplyDelete
  132. That is one beautiful FUBM going on in gold. Gold is the play.

    ReplyDelete
  133. I liked to be torched loaded up on RVM...just for the hell of it. Hopefully a payday tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  134. @uptofreedom

    I have just one problem with your judgement of my comment...my train comment didn't suggest the price was going up or down...only to prepare for volatility. Even if someone were to take a comment like that from a blog seriously what is the worst that could happen....they act more cautiously! Wow, I can see how you would think my comment might be a danger.

    ReplyDelete
  135. uptofreedom, who the fuck died and made your bossman? jd.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Titus,

    The almost exact opposite of yesterday was the play all day long in both metals since Honk Kong close. Draw the line @ 1537 and 37.50 ish.

    I don't think the mirror will carry a grand FUBM into the close, I think another FUTF will. Raid hats on, I say.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Play nice boys and Girls or I will release the Kraken :)

    http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTHkePUiCVnyaCqw87Zx79hGcpl52UmEzL_NC4Q3jaFaAb5ibaRAw

    ReplyDelete
  138. Pablo

    Sounds like you've got your ducks in a row! Nicely done. :)

    Eric

    ReplyDelete
  139. I don't see any algo's in play, SSK. Silver's actually acting pretty naturally at this point. 5min upper BB being reached, minor pullback follows... That's completely normal.

    ReplyDelete
  140. The EE may be king of kick the can, but all the problems stay right up the road.

    Don't bite my head off here, but I think we might actually benefit from a designated 'devils advocate' here in the comments section just as we would benefit from a designated nightwatch admin to delete the trolls and disinfo bots.

    I have always tried to view a situation from the perspective of my opponent to gain insight as to their motives and tactics, so lets try to view this from the other side for a moment.

    - $50 Silver when it happens will have the same effect on our civilization as $10 a gallon gas, not mad max stuff, but at those prices we will be roughly half way there (living on a prayer?)

    - The peoples bank of China has enough FRN's to buy JPM outright just by purchasing controlling shares on the open market

    - JPM's short position is not only larger than actual available world silver supply, its larger than what it would cost to buy controlling shares in their company as above

    - The only tool that remains at thier disposal is mope and spin, and if they fall they take alot of what is left of our way of life with them

    - The overall goal longterm is one world bank, the main obstacle to that goal is China and right now China is bi-winning

    /rant off

    time for a grey goose on the rocks with a cherry

    Also, as Turd becomes more popular we need to admit at least to the possibility that his calls may actually effect the market, others have mentioned this before and I want to echo that sentiment.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Hold on everyone, I just got a secret communication that I must urgently share with you...

    "Hello everyone, my name is Ben Bernanke. I and my colleague Blythe Masters would like to tip you off to some important information: we intend to manipulate the commodities markets. "

    I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

    ReplyDelete
  142. @uptofreedom

    Thanks! Where did you get the "expected target"?

    Despite my wailing and bitching, I'm itching to get back in, but I won't unless and until there is a really solid "Turd's bottom #3" in place... which may not happen until Fall and QE3.

    @Josh

    Apparently one of the Fed guys said no QE3.. which really means no QE3 until we have a market crash... man, it's gonna be a rough summer.

    ReplyDelete
  143. turd is definitely no dumdum

    ReplyDelete
  144. Gold has been in a very precise trading channel
    since it began recovery after the last mkt crash.
    By constructing a diagram so simple a halfwit can
    do it, one can immediately determine overbought
    and oversold conditions with great accuracy. Thats TA working at its best, although that channel can and will get disrupted by fundamentals from time to time.

    ReplyDelete
  145. @ Code the Plummer

    Given that everyone is "expecting" something like this to happen (esp with all the doom and gloom surrounding tomorrow's job data), I would not be the least bit surprised if the next 24 hrs turn out to be a major snorefest. TPTB will just take the day off tomorrow and go golfing instead (while we sit cowering away in our bunkers)

    ReplyDelete
  146. Uptofreedom,

    I'm trackking the miners. If the metals come in negative into 3:00, the algos will sell. This is nothing new.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I'm not sure where I read it (I've read so much about the coming collapse, the depression, metals trading etc the last couple years), but the gist was this 'the closer we get to the end, the wilder the swings will be.'
    It brings me comfort to know, that if we are nearing the end of this fake 'capitalist' crap for system, I have prepared for it. Thanks go out to Turd, and Santa, as well as a good friend, DW, who blogs at theeveningchronicle.blogspot.com., for leading me to the light.

    ReplyDelete
  148. Tossing this out there GMR ( none PM )

    ReplyDelete
  149. LevelHeaded

    Thanks for the nice response.

    I have been dieing to find some real good charts of the 1980 runup in gold and maybe silver for study. I want it to clearly show the prices. Do you have great charts or know how I can view some online. etc. what I have seen for charts are terrible. impossible to read the prices and get the correct feel for what it was like at the time.

    ReplyDelete
  150. That close sucked. Not making any money today. That's for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  151. @kiwi - I just used the 34 you mentioned. My expected buy target is 33.4ish, the SMA(150) on the daily.we're testing the SMA(100) today, 150's the next one down.

    ((current$-target$)/current$)*2=expected AGQ correction:

    (36.2-33.4)/36.2 = 0.077
    0.077*2 = ~0.155 = 15.5%

    currentAGQ less 15.5%:
    182.5*0.845=154.21

    based on that I adjusted my AGQ order from 158 to 156. Could get fancy with 154.5 but 156 is more likely to get filled.

    ReplyDelete
  152. SSK - ahhh, didn't catch the miners bit. I was looking at $silver...

    ReplyDelete
  153. @California Lawyer,

    APIB (Amen, Preach it Brother)

    ReplyDelete
  154. btw, I doubt that goldilocks was surrounded by
    as many bears as are on this site right now.
    Come on lads , chins up ! When bulls get bearish
    ...... well , you know the rest of the story.
    Dont rule it out. (Just sayin'). Dont forget,
    the Chinese (and Indians) get to have a rather
    large say. We're just the cowboys in all of this.
    I'm harfwit, in case you hadnt guessed, having some more loggin in issues.

    ReplyDelete
  155. From Yesterday:

    Ron Paul asking FED goons about the GOLD on the FED's balance sheet. The gold on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is gold certificates (which it apparently got from the treasury) and still is valued at $42 dollars an ounce (can't even buy a silver eagle for these prices hardly these days!).

    Watch these chumps facial expressesions, and their hand gestures.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eExucI3IWs

    Ron's assault on them about gold starts at 1minute into it.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Many here are LT physical so the rock'em; sock'em robotics algorithm ping ponging is nothin but noise. Certain I could go back to chasing paper and hedge for the uncertainty the criminals use for paper chasing shufflers to puke long or short positions. I enjoy just standing back with my physical stash and know the fiat paper ponzi end comes. Why be grilled to the attention nanos of these criminals, when all the action is to bilk your FRN's from you. Let'em have all the FRNs. Just be smart enough to not try to win at a rigged criminal house game. Pack your individual self sufficiency life boat. EE criminals will have heapin mountains of FRNs choking; smothering the internals out of a fallen failed system soon enough. I see myself with plenty of intelligence in making certain the match gets lit under the whole of the greed within'em to burn'em to ashes. Don't need the daily insanity of the paper chase by the insane to loosen my resolve in a commitment to the EE's incineration. Somebodies gotta stand from the outside lookin in at all this FRN frenzy leap froggin to no ones lasting satisfaction. It all goes very contrary to the nature of happiness but then I to had to pass through it. Make a choice to exit and know, as the sun is bright, the EE will pass and become a hiss and by word among the honest in heart. I want no part of the EE criminal game for entertainment to the middle of nowhere in the end. Not goon-a be pretty. Collapsing empires never are.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Todays corn rally is about acres - led by Dec.
    All contracts except July made new contract highs. July should eventually be the leader as market focus returns to tight old crop supplies.

    July wheat traded same as July corn again today.
    1996 was when this last happened.

    ReplyDelete
  158. I also enjoy some of the lunacy being bantered back and forth between the fearful, hopeful, and some plain ignorance. Comical but then I do know how emotional the human heart is. The beauty of it all, is you'll be so refined in future certainty of processes coming to fruition, if you evolve from the game with your head still screwed on straight, it all becomes worthwhile, whatever it is you need endure. Endure for what? Experience to see you through every falsehood slung at you; steering you off course to a lasting satisfaction; contentment for whatever will be will be.

    ReplyDelete
  159. thanks for posting that, scott. I planned on watching that yday but was distracted...

    Give 'em hell, Dr. Paul!

    edit - LMAO... word ver: terize

    captcha's mimicking Bush Jr., it seems...

    ReplyDelete
  160. MARKUS: you couldn't be MORE wrong if you tried (about technical analysis). Sorry that you can't see that, it would save you a heck of alot of time, and a heck of alot of money. But, to each his own.

    ReplyDelete
  161. Pablo,

    Just a heads up... you won't be able to buy them at the last minute. Ask any enthusiast about the market in '08-'09. Obama's picture is up in many stores as "Salesman of the Year." and hasn't been taken down to this day. Inventories nationwide on many calibers was literally zero, for months (12-18, not 2-3), based solely on fear and not tangible need. Prices on many things doubled in the process.

    Make no mistake, the most precious metal is Pb. Call it alchemy or whatever, but it can be turned into gold or anything else you could possibly want, so long as you have it and someone else doesn't. Or, you can be the one wishing you had went to wizard school. Like it or not, no matter where you live, there is a wizard near you that will be looking to turn his Pb into your Au, and your Pb&J too.

    ReplyDelete
  162. My contrarian instincts based on all of the PM negativism here and elsewhere says go all in; I think I might with leverage!

    Positives - the agriculture complex traded well today (check out finviz.com for all the green), no PM sell off into the close, and we got a reasonable bounce off the lows. I'll be watching overnight action for some strength to set up an interesting Friday - and hopefully profitable.

    ReplyDelete
  163. WTI over 100.75; someone doesn't want to go home short tonight.

    Silver needs a 1.80 day tomorrow for me to win the big yellow hat; prudence dictates not to toss my "Polygamy Porter - Why Just Have One?" cap. Nevertheless, keeping hope alive!

    Bought back some August Gold and added some July Silver; still long July Corn, but may get some taken away overnight.

    Gotta run to kid's game tonight; much more important!

    GLTA

    ReplyDelete
  164. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/02/financial-regulation-cftc-congress-idUSN0228692020110602?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&rpc=43

    US Senate bill would force CFTC to act on position limits


    Thu Jun 2, 2011 4:23pm EDT

    * Sen Sanders to propose position limit bill next week

    * Bill would force CFTC to curb oil market speculation

    * Proposal latest effort to prod CFTC action

    By Christopher Doering

    WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - An outspoken U.S. senator who criticized the country's futures regulator for failing to crackdown on energy speculation said on Thursday he will introduce legislation next week that will force the agency to act.

    Senator Bernie Sanders said the legislation would force the head of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use emergency authority to impose limits on the positions investors can take in crude oil, gasoline and heating oil. The move could occur without support from the majority of the agency's commissioners.

    The bill also would raise margin requirements in the markets and force big Wall Street houses to live within prescribed limits.

    "We cannot allow Wall Street speculators to continue to rip off the American people at the gas pump any longer," said Sanders, an Independent from Vermont.

    ReplyDelete
  165. When one sees the weekly local "penny saver" type papers come out and BEG to buy your gold don't you think the smart money is trying to tell us something...this is a no brainer...and then all those that sold their jewelry and sterling will be left holding a bag of worthless fiat...the "HEAT" is obviously building.

    ReplyDelete
  166. I am curious why July corn is so much higher in price than September corn? Is there some seasonal issue involved?

    ReplyDelete
  167. in last weeks euro looked like safe heaven play - the catalyst was euro debt, no matter what

    but what if there was a concrete plan by the end of june - like 3 year from zerohedge today

    if equities go down sharply gold would probably to - not counting silver here, it would be down already - why not 28 - why not pre qe2 level was it 15-17 ?

    ReplyDelete
  168. Yes, Kurt. July corn is "old crop", the corn that is currently in storage and running out. Sep corn is "new crop", the stuff that is now in the ground.

    Btw, new thread.

    ReplyDelete
  169. @Kurt,
    July is 2010 crop corn. December is the 2011 crop being planted now. Sept is a transition month. Trade July or Dec. US corn supply is tight and July price must be high enough to ration the limited supply until fall harvest begins.

    ReplyDelete
  170. @ Petr

    At this stage of the game, the physical price would make 15$ silver in the paper markets only symbolic. We would be looking at a full-blown default if that were the case. They can't blow their cover, they have to manage perception. The 200 day MA would be the very worst scenario in my opinion.

    Gold wouldn't go down necessarily on equity weakness (see yesterday), and if it did it would surely be very short-lived (no 08 type of lul at this stage of the game in my opinion). However, silver would definitely feel the ramifications of the equity market until it turned back on its inflation measure and skyrocketed back. Equities down they can take silver with it on "industrial" justification, which would give weakness to gold.

    All of this would lead to the largest FUBM in real price of all time. And if this scenario were to play out, the FUBM for physical price would be the one that starts the real run....

    ReplyDelete
  171. @ roland

    Check out tulving.com if you have the goods to buy large quantities of bullion.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Lazy Lester,

    I have left a reply to your question about COMEX inventory and late delievery.

    Victor

    ReplyDelete
  173. I'm a raid waiter now. They'll never stop doing it, so why not?

    ReplyDelete
  174. Almost shorted SLV yesterday. It's so obvious what they're doing here. The question is what's coming after the raid or this raid?

    Is it the dollar getting hammered and PM's sky rocketing? If only I knew.

    ReplyDelete
  175. My signs = the last time we had a crazy raid on the 26th they took us from 39$ silver to 36.80 by shorting it in a few minutes.

    At that very same time they took gold down from 1530 to 1518 real fast. This makes me think we'll see $1518-1520 gold again. If it really is relevant, then we could see 1500-1515 gold.

    I have my doubts, they successfully get gold down, but it doesn't stay down for long if you've noticed. Silver has a harder time as of late.

    ReplyDelete
  176. I'm not of the opinion that they lose money shorting silver. I will never accept the fact that these criminals will lose money when they're robbing us. They're thieves and whether people know it or not, they're definitely making billions doing this. I don't need to see any proof to know that. Criminals don't do crimes to lose money.

    ReplyDelete
  177. Very simple. ink refill stores will save you money on toner and ink 100% of the time.

    ReplyDelete
  178. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  179. designer clothingFull Software Download
    To sacrifice a pot of goldYou're the kind of womanThat needs a man that's always thereIt's not that you require a lotJust need some tender love and care

    ReplyDelete
  180. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  181. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  182. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete