Friday, June 3, 2011

Overriding the Fundamentals

The desire to smash commodity prices to pave the way for QE3 is now so complete that fundamentals are completely ignored. In a real "market", terrible economic news such as we had this morning would be greeted with a spike in commodity prices as it all but ensures further government efforts to "stimulate" the economy.

Of course, in the end, this is exactly what is going to happen. In fact, QE isn't even about economic growth anyway, its about funding the federal government while at the same time floating free money to insolvent TBTF primary dealer banks. The lousy U.S. economy just gives political cover and distraction for the Fed to keep the presses humming.

Remember Econ 101...Increasing the supply of an item decreases its value. More dollars equals a less valuable dollar. A declining dollar causes all things denominated in dollars (gold, oil, corn) to rise. The dollar is going to be declining farther with the advent of QE3 so the way must be prepared by smashing commodities first so that they start their next UPleg from a lower point. Thus, the fundamentals are overridden today. The prop desks of the primary dealers are the ones responsible, at the behest of their Fed masters.

Eventually, good defeats evil and truth defeats lies. I see that just in the time it has taken me to type this note, gold has rallied $10. Maybe truth will even win the day today. We'll see. The key may be in watching the POSX. It has now made a complete roundtrip from its "Calvin" bounce last month. The bounce took it to 74. It then rallied to 76+ and now it's back to 74. A move back down through 74 and it will move quickly back toward 73.

Lastly, here's a silver chart for all the other sick, pathetic gamblers such as myself. Frankly, I'm about to give up on silver for a while, even though I did get filled on another July $40 call overnight. The fiat price obtained through action on the Comex is now so disconnected from physical reality that it seems ludicrous to even participate in the nonsense. As we've often discussed here, physical silver is your insurance protection as you seek to preserve your ability to purchase everyday items. Physical gold is your insurance as you seek to preserve your wealth. As the Comex edges closer to default, the price of paper silver set by the Comex will increasingly separate from reality. The simplest strategy is to avoid the Comex, altogether. Do not play their games. Leave the "speculation" up to us lobotomized fools. Just keep stacking your physical and look the other way,

OK, I have lasts of 1542.60 and 35.60. I don't know about you but I'm ready for the weekend to start right now. More later...maybe. It depends on whether or not I go make myself a Bloody Mary. TF


  1. Tim

    The Dow Gold Ratio (DGR) is something that has been watched for a long time, so if you do a little homework it's something you can find a lot of long term charts and analysis on it. People have a decent feel for what sort of ranges are involved.

    Basically it's a barometer of paper assets vs hard assets. We are in a cycle right now where money is moving away from paper (the Dow) and toward hard assets (Gold), and thus the DGR steadily dropping.

    This is a long term thing, nothing happens all at once, but DGR watchers are looking for it to eventually drop to something like 2:1 or even 1:1.

    I put the trade on recently because it's been flatlined in the low 8's for too long and I figured it was ready to bust out one way or the other. I figured down, in keeping with the major trend.

    The problem is that it doesn't give you absolute targets. If you anticipate a DGR of 2, it still doesn't tell you if it will be Dow 12000 and Gold 6000, or Dow 3000 and Gold 1500, or Dow 20000 and Gold 10000, or whatever.

  2. Turd,

    What's the best way to play soft commodities? Agriculture and livestock?


  3. TF, thanks for that and thanks for your email last night!

    I hope you wont give up the charts on silver... Your opinion is still important to most of us!

  4. Thanks again, Turd. And hang in there -- though you do seem a bit tired this morning...

  5. I'm sure silver will now regain... because... I just baught some new puts as a hedge

  6. Turd
    Last time I heard you in despair about silver it was a good time to buy. That's what I'm doing.

  7. TF said:
    I go make myself a Bloody Mary.


    Just do it m8, just do it :)

  8. Turd, set your clock to UK time, bloody mary at 3pm is fine by me!

  9. China Accuses U.S. of Launching Global 'Internet War' to Bring Down Arab Governments

    Read more:

  10. Thanks Turd!
    Good morning =]



    Uh, gold market seems to disagree...

  12. ha! anyone get a system currently unavailable on ameritrade? i use think or swim on my ipad but the traditional website is down. sucks.

  13. Turd I don't really know if I understood that correctly or not but I think you're raising very important point again...

    QE was NEVER about economy. It was ALWAYS about insolvent banks and corrupt government. They don't give a f* about economy or American people.

  14. I think 36 is the new 39.. thats twice today it hasnt liked it....

  15. Head up buddy. Thanks for the update.

  16. Good Morning Turd, hope you and the misses enjoyed the magic fingers last night.

  17. The US was once the example of freedom and free market, well no more; it has become a manipulated, keeping-up-appearances, paranoia state.

  18. Cookie

    I'm in ameritrade and it seems ok.

  19. I was married for 20 years to Bloody Mary.

    It did not do any good.

    I was up past 2 am and wake up to this.

    I need another drink. I will try MOO this time. I like it fermented into Kefir or Yougert with some fruit.

  20. Turd-

    But, But, I thought you were a perma-bull!

    Is the bottom on silver a case of WTFK?

    For the present, I'm going with Pailin's 156 AGQ prediction, I guess that's 33-34 silver.

  21. Silver Eagle Coin Sales Soar
    The U.S. Mint sold 3.65 million ounces of American Eagle silver coins last month and had the best January through May sales since 1986.

    As price inflation heats up, more and more people will seek out gold coins, silver coins and nickels as hedges against that inflation.

  22. don't see much resistance from 1.45 to 1.40 Eur/USD either...

  23. I don't understand what is happening. I feel stupid.

    Also, silver is catching a bid. Quick, wake me up!

  24. Anytime silver goes below 35- I buy. I loved your note yesterday on the physical-paper disconnect. I would love to see a comex implosion.

    Bankers loan gold and silver that they do not possess just as they do dollars. People can't believe that. I think they are going to believe it soon enough.

  25. NCOT

    36 is a magic number from way back. Check the charts from early March. It was spooky.

  26. @SSK

    Averaged down on NGD, now $9.86 -- nice.

    TD Ameritrade down right now.


  27. Can they really keep silver at low to mid 35s and have the comex survive July? Is silver starting to price in a default?

  28. bot PSLV and EGO today......hehehehhehe yeeeehahahahaha........

  29. dear turd,
    your desperation is making turdites nervous...especially people sitting as far away as India.u just have your Bloody Mary,come back with vengeance & kick some ass especially TPTB & CRIMEX ...ohh by the way u still standing by ur $43-45call?

  30. @Eric, funny, I woke up this morning (UK time) and we were about 36.20 and although in the red, I as ok..

    Then it tanked... and I thought to myself, only a couple of weeks ago we'd have loved silver to get to 35!

    Just realised as well... I stopped being 36 yesterday and am now 37 years old. Spooky... maybe we'll hit 37 tonight!

  31. thanks eric, maybe it's me ameritrade hates.
    this does not bode well that dollar is crashing and silver can't break 36. my equities are flying back up...

  32. Nice $20 bounce for gold. Silver making a slight uptick now as well. Still glad I canceled my AGQ order. Things are too crazy right now.

    The one thing I wish I had stock in is the paper the Fed uses to print the money. THAT would be great.

  33. 10:00a

    May ISM services index dips to 53.6% from 53.7%

  34. President Saleh of Yemen is reported as alive by BBC.

    I'm unlikely to do trading today unless silver goes a lot lower. Don't want to get stuck rolling into the weekend with it.

  35. We touched 36 once and everyone is calling it the next 39? Wow guys....

  36. fail, meant 1.45-1.50 eur/usd

  37. You are a good man, Turd. Appreciate your honesty. Sometimes WTFK is the most reasonable response. And when up is down and down is up and sideways is unknown it is best to stay away from the paper. Wish I didn't have any. My good miners have been treated like shop rags.

    At some point, maybe very soon, we'll all have to remember not to lose our sense of outrage at the blatant crime going on lest we become complacent or accepting of the rape and pillage. If we become emotionally drained by the markets and accept manipulation as a way of life we become part of the problem. At the same time, we have to keep our emotions in check.

    This is going to be quite a balancing act... outrage yet cool headed. But we will prevail, as you say, by stacking and by avoiding the traps. When the mining stocks finally reach their (intended by Cartel) bottom, with your help we should see it, know it and back up the truck for an incredible ride up.

    In the meantime (reminding myself), TPTB are in desperation mode. Nothing to do but stay in the game with dry powder and physical.

  38. Turdle GG said...
    Last time I heard you in despair about silver it was a good time to buy.

    RE"physical silver is your insurance protection as you seek to preserve your ability to purchase everyday items. Physical gold is your insurance as you seek to preserve your wealth."

    I believe the Weimar hyper-inflation had a nasty deflation spike just before it got going in ernest.
    A few $100 boxes of nickels will retain buying power in either hyper-inflation(a nickel's current melt value is 6.2 cents) or nasty deflation..nothing safer..if only they didn't weigh so much!


  39. When is the final date on those July $40 calls. Just wondering how long a time to get above the strick price.

    How can I get the prices on those calls.

    I accidently ran into the option prices on the AGQ stock. I saved it up somewhere.

    On a practical basis how do the AGQ calls compare to the commodity calls.

    Thanks guys. I am trying to get ready to trade. Open to everything right now. Trying to figure out the practical aspects of what I choose.

    For all the ups and downs in this market. I must say one thing. I have to congratulate Turd for being able to hand in there. It seems that the options do limit the risk so that one can hang in there and sleep at night.

    I like the idea of having the time to still bounce back as keeping me in the game.

  40. @Scott, it was said with a hint of humour..

    I always claim to be the least technical person on this site.. just watch the price all day long...

    and I mean ALL day long.....

  41. Scott, look at the sma100 on the 4hr. Been banging up against that since noon yday.

  42. Went and bought myself a nice shiny 1000 oz brick o silver at apmex (they didn't have any others). Gracias Sr. Penoles.

  43. Added some more RVM..sitting tight.

  44. Too early for me to decide what to carry into the weekend, but what kind of good news surprises are we expecting? Peace and love in the ME? More paper printing to kick the PIIGS' cans down the road? Tiny Tim talking up the dollar with the same credibility as a used car dealer, or Goldman "Wealth Manager" for that matter?

    I think the Eurofolk are buying the shit out of gold right now, so we'll see...

  45. I think the equity markets have seen and digested all the bad news and are ready to move up for some sort of bounce into the weekend on a lower dollar and all this mope (and new "growth-oriented IPOs" --> how ironic the company people are excited about is a coupon company...)

    The move in silver down to 35 was fairly obvious when we got down to 35.6, as ~35 was where all the support was at, not 35.6). Now that we have touched 35 a couple of times this morning (in the height of the EE pressure), I would say that there is more potential for upside from here. I was feeling a bit paranoid going into today, but today I feel more calm as the mining stocks have held up like CHAMPS during all of this downturn. To me, this is showing that the gold and silver market have just taken a detour for now, and will continue their move back up sooner than later.

    Feeling pretty relaxed after a bit of nervousness over the past 3 days.

  46. Where can I get real time or delay time AGQ pricing and charts.

    thanks guys

  47. Turd,
    at what moment do you seriously abandon paper trading silver as, in case of a Comex default (I suppose) all paper silver derivatives become worthless? So there is only gold left to trade..?

  48. Good morning all. Time to buy the dips. The rise will come. We just have to work through some scared sellers. Just read this board and you can tell that people are still scared. The scared sellers will run out of bullets soon enough.

    Enter your position in pieces so you can get your feet wet and also so you will be happy if we dip to 1535 and 35.50.

  49. Expect the raids. Sell with your big profits and look to get in post-raid. It's simpler than it sounds.

    Bought @1528 sold @1544 now looking to buy back , possibly around here at 1540, but i expected a raid to drop us to at least 1540 or below.

    Good luck.

    I expect the dollar to crash through to 73 as well. 74.11 was my last target area for some support. Once we fall below there past 74 it is literally over.

  50. Good News: $10 profit today
    Bad News: $2207 loss yesterday

    Good News: 20 ASE, 24 Maples being delivered today
    Bad News: Purchased when spot was $44

    Good News: Gold UP
    Bad News: Silver is getting kicked around like the redheaded step child (btw- I love redheads, very sexy.)

    Moving forward: Placed a stink bid in for AGQ at $155, getting cash ready for some American Eagles of the Gold and Silver kind. Should be fun buying sales this summer.

    Good Luck everyone.

  51. @D E
    I know I wouldn't buy a used car from that little weasel - guy gives me the friggin creeps. what a slime ball! Just what you'd expect of this admin... crooks - slime balls and *%$!## the whole lot of em!!!

    w/v fredom - cool!

  52. @Eric #1:

    The only problem with using the DGR is that the Dow is a moving target. By that I mean that the components change over time. For example, Shittybank and Government Motors were yanked out in 2009, replaced by Travelers and Cisco. AIG was taken out earlier in 2009. These changes have occurred every few years, rendering the index a very unstable means of measurement to compare with something as unchanging as a single troy ounce of gold.

    Further, you have to deal with the fact that the DJIA is a price-weighted index, meaning that higher priced stocks have more weight in determining the direction and magnitude of any changes in the price of the index. A 1% change in price for a $100 stock will have 10x the effect of a 1% change in price for a $10 stock. This points out how the value of the index depends a lot on the politics of whether a company's board decides to split its stock or not - imagine, for example, if Berkshire Hathaway was part of the DJIA (unlikely, I know, but bear with me on this one). Priced at roughly $115,000, it would have nearly 100 times the effect on the index as all of the others combined (with a total price of about $1,600).

    While I understand the simplicity of using such a calculation, I question its validity in predicting anything.

  53. When I say the mining stocks are holding up like champs I mean they are bleeding at more realistic levles rather than the exaggerated everyone dump every stock day after day... there was a stretch where I lost ~30% in a week... this is at least within realm of "normal." The drop in the past 3 days was very limited for the negative sentiment that has creeped back into the PM sector (for now).

  54. uhm.. whats the f*cking chance that price retests 39 before June expiration?

    ~sigh~ I am so screwed.

  55. These charts look like payers to me.

  56. Silver has double test of 35.13 this morning. I'm a buyer above 36.40. Now giddy up!

  57. 10:16a

    Former Sen. Edwards indicted by federal grand jury

  58. why do I never by big on the dips?

    I only seem to place small order on the dips due to nerves and then at the peaks I've got more cocky and place the bigger orders which cost me the money!

  59. @LevelHeaded

    Gotta disagree with you, this looks like a long term downtrend, there's absolutely no good economic news out there, and most of the retail trade does not see the PMs as a "safe haven", it's just another asset class to trade. So retail will flee the PMs just like they are fleeing the stock market.

    Short term we will see spikes here and there but IMHO everything goes down until QE3 or a 2008 type bottom.

  60. looks like the may 30 fan is about to reverse to the upside...

  61. Anybody up for a short squeeze? Let's hope this move can turn some short hands sweaty and shaky.

  62. @kiwi

    i highly doubt a 2008 bottom. when it happened the feds were shocked. had they known it could have dropped that far they wouldn't have let it happen.

    say what u want about the feds (i agree they are nuts) but a spy of 666 will psychologically destroy the masses much more than a devalued dollar will. at the end of the day, devalued dollar is worse (for our own personal good) but vast majority of people see it when the market drops but have no clue what inflation is...

  63. btw i bot the spy dip this morning and am holding for the 2 week rebound with es july 1320s as well as sold spy jul 130 puts

  64. Well this should be interesting week

  65. @kiwi#1
    That's ok. That's what makes a market. I feel fine if I'm disagreed with.

    Buy the dips, not the rips.

  66. waffen: Hang in there. I'm potentially screwed, too, as I have 3 July 40s and 2 July 45s. But we still have 4 weeks before first notice day so anything can happen.

  67. Have a good one Turd. Check out some Brooklyn Summer Ale if you get it in your area. I'll be knocking back a few this weekend.

  68. Btw, the POSX is just barely hanging on to 74.
    A drop through there should help propel the PMs higher.
    {fingers crossed}

  69. Just wait tell the downgraded earnings trickle in that has been propping this market up, this ain't nothing yet, just watch what happens to the Dow in the coming week.

    But one must also take into account a lot of these corps are sitting on a boat load of cash.

    ( eCONomics is hard )

  70. Ought oh... dollar at 74.... will we see it break down today?

  71. Turd.. not sure I get you.. June experation is only 14 days away.. I have a 39.

    As for my July.. I have a 55 I bought a long time ago LOL.. yes I assumed the price would atleast test 40 again at some point in early june so i could sell it.. but alas..

    I just want to save my last 1K that I put in a $39 June. =/

    I started this at the worst time, late April with 8K but now I have a value of $880 =/

    If I can just save my $39 I am cashing out and waiting for QE3

  72. @ScottJ88, I would agree, were I not deep into SVM.

    Why must the world hate on SVM today? Silver down 1/3rd a percent and SVM takes it 10x for -3.4%. Is it just because it didn't get whacked hard enough the last two days? Is there news somehwere that I hadn't read? I would buy more, seeing as it appears so out of place today, but I already did that the last few days thinking I had scored.

  73. I think I see an inverted h/s bottom forming... but I'm no expert. (15min ag)
    Any TA guys have an opinion?... another visit to 35.50 then a move up to 36.50... retest 36.25 then more move up??? (or am I being too optimistic)

  74. NFP= Nuff Foul Play?
    No Freakin Paper?
    No Furg Predictions?

  75. Non-Farm Payrolls, it's a key unemployment-related figure...

  76. This comment has been removed by the author.

  77. "Remember Econ 101...Increasing the supply of an item decreases its value. More dollars equals a less valuable dollar.

    Turd, here lies the danger:
    the raised prices are not really a consequence of rising demand due to a booming economy, but are also liquidity driven.
    In this debt-slavery-system, every one's Dollar surplus is one's Dollar deficit. So what happens, if the economy's growth can compete with the demand of the debt?
    Liquidity shrinks. Prices tend to go lower.

    I don't want to say, that QE3 will not come, but i want to raise attention to the possible outcome at the end of QE2, that liquidity could shrink and prices could come under pressure.

    Ofcourse, the fundamentals are intact, but Siver is an extremely volatile commodity. So only a week of growing demand for liquidity in the investment-sector, could massacre prices.

    BTW: i'm long myself in Ag, but i'm ready to get out, if margin calls would force liquidations in the commodity sector.

  78. who did not get screwed today ?


  79. Just in case anyone hanging out here is still laboring under the idea that the big banks don't make bad investment decisions that cost them billions here it is from CNBC:

    "Goldman [GS 136.34 1.96 (+1.46%) ] invested $1.5 billion for the Libyan sovereign wealth fund in 2008, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. It lost 98 percent of the money."

    Here is the link:

    Stories like this make me want to puke.

    What a bunch of scum bags. The mafia and Hell's Angels look tame in comparison...

  80. sorry the r inverted shoulder broke the prior low. Doesn't mean price won't go up- just means it's not an ihs.

  81. ...if the economy can NOT compete...

  82. did anyone find timing of 'GREECE SAYS EU-IMF REVIEW COMPLETED POSITIVELY' weird ?

  83. @ blister
    Thanks man...
    I was seeing 36.25 as the neck line and right shoulder is not yet in?

  84. This is one of those dips y'all

  85. The next hour should be interesting. That's when we took that major dump yesterday. I really like 1535.

  86. Level - not enough to get me to bite. $35.30 maybe. Not wishin on that, just sayin'

    Petr - no loss here today I'm not playing yet.

  87. so what happened today

    non farm was huge miss, risk off trade began = equities down, dollar up, gold up as save heaven

    than suddently europe call hurray greece is ok; world was saved so euro up, equities up and gold down

    volatility swings on the table and I would not be suprised if we closed flat across the board

  88. Waffen: I own calls on the July silver future. They expire on 6/27. First notice day for July delivery is 6/30.
    I hope that helps.

  89. @ petr

    the screwing stopped for me yesterday morning when I exited all silve positions except short EXK. I am now trading gold until silver calms down.

    I think the euro could go to 150 to 160.
    That is going to make QE III a little harder to do but it will still happen. (but when)

    I am comfortable long gold over the weekend as long as it does not take out 1520 today or the daily stochastic drops below 80. Getting out of dodge if either of those happen today.


  90. Thanks for the clarification Eric#1

    I'm gonna to stop looking at the POS today

  91. agree LH. we're on the verge of retaking some key support. that's usually when Blythe let's the monkeys loose... will be telling if we can hold above 35.9

  92. why do I never by big on the dips?

    I only seem to place small order on the dips due to nerves and then at the peaks I've got more cocky and place the bigger orders which cost me the money!


    I dont know

    You tell me

    Why do you do it?

  93. @sockeye1 .. cos I love it when people like you help me realise what I schmuck I really am!

  94. Thanks Turd, looks like we're in WTFK territory again right now. Unfortunatly the Wicked Witch loves nothing more than for silver to go down on her. The filthy tart.

  95. The highest volume in the last week has been today when we dipped below 36.

    **** Can anyone confirm or dispel the suggestion posted by Duke yesterday that some Asian markets may be closed next week?

  96. @Snoochie... you've put an image in my head I'd rather not have thanks!

  97. A good piece on silver from Casey Research to help you all put the price action since May into perspective:


  98. @OldNavy, Definitely holidays in China, Hong Kong, NZ cant find out if markets are closed but one would assume so..

  99. @tesla:

    The pattern you're looking for does not qualify. Look at 7:45. Price dipped below the 'head'. Don't bother looking for a neckline trade, IMO. I don't trade this time frame- just replying to your question.

  100. Report: Mazda axing U.S. production, severing Ford ties

  101. Bernanke Buck dips under 74

    Silver bangs at 36

    Gold off highs but still well bid

    WTI 1.50 off lows

    Could be worse...and was.

    Let's see how it goes by the close. Folks may not want to go home long silver, but I don't think they are going to go home short WTI or gold.

  102. @NCOT

    It's the Fear/Greed mix, or Flight/Fight instinct... we are programmed to run when things look scary, and dive it when it looks good. While this served us well in evolutionary terms, you have to supress or even reverse the interpretation of those feelings to trade stocks.... tough to do. Can't say I'm good at it myself. Right now things look bad, but not bad enough that I think I should buy... I'm waiting for the "fetal postion sucking thumb" bad economy and market, and then it's full on... ;-)

  103. 11:08a

    Fed buys $6.94 billion in Treasurys

  104. @sockeye: maybe develop a disciplined trading strategy? One way to avoid the nerves of over-committing to dips would be to wait for the moving averages to align to the upside. Try using a 10/20/30 MA on a chart on a 30 minute chart and wait for the fan to properly align to the upside, then buy the dip when price retests the 10 MA. This is not a secret nor is it the 'keys to the kingdom'. Perhaps just a way for you to feel more comfortable re. your entries...

  105. Re: the dow to gold's some interesting math:

    Ratio peaked at 10 in early 1920's and bottomed at 2.0 in the 1930s. Ratio peaked at 27 in late 1960's and bottomed at 1.0 in 1980.

    So, 18/2 = 9 and 27/1 = 27. Follow me here, 27/9 = 3. So to figure out where the next DGR will end we will use "3".

    Here goes....DGR peaked at 44 around 2000. So, 27 ( last peak ) X 3 = 84. Now,
    44/84 = 0.54

    Makes perfect sense. First DGR bottomed at 2.0, next one bottomed at 1.0....and using this formula...which is just finding a numerical relationship....the next one is projected at half again....0.5. Now wouldn't that be nice?

  106. My oils came back nice. Pleasant surprise there.


    My portfolio is just fractionally green today. I count that as "not screwed".

  107. question for Turdites experienced with junior/exploration companies - @ Atlee - Palin - Scott - Shill - Eric#1 or cool if the Turd Meister could comment....

    re: AAU Almaden Mineral.....bought at .75....around 3.50 now, has hit $5 back in dec/jan, and this past april.

    question is, is anyone familiar with this company? what are the chances it will hit this levels again? what would be a good exit point etc?
    does the chart tell you anything?

    I know, should have taken money off table prior- inexperienced at trading, everything I've bought I still own, starting buying stocks for past year and a 1/2 after I felt I had a good physical position.....I know nothing about charts, and didn't
    do any in depth research, just was looking at the big picture (example - I bought SLW at $14 and at the time didn't even understand what they did, dummy) - but now I have a lot of freetime on my hands and plan on taking profits off the table and playing bit of swing trading

    any insight or thoughts would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance.
    also own NAK Northern Dynasty Mineral (f-me...could have sold @ 20...bought at 7), and recently bought SFEG Santa Fe Gold at 1......ditto on these two if you have any insights or thoughts.

  108. Whoa, I didn't mean 10 in early 1920s...I meant it peaked at 18. Sorry, DGR peaked at 18 in early 1920s!

  109. Yes, assuming the dow is static and will remain at $12k!

  110. Greece is all good! Review completed! Tick in the box!

    Broader Europe: OK!

    Euro: OK!

    PIIGS: No swine flue outbreak there!

    Happy days, here again!

  111. Corn giving me a high fructosing today, but

    baby, the rain must fall
    baby, the wind must blow

    So if they want my bushels, they're going to have to pay up

    Plan B: I used to make moonshine in high school.


    A true failure if there ever was one.

  113. somebody said during this week that there will be holidays in asia next week


    eur.usd- i think equities will fall during summer and i wouldnt see eur.usd above 1.50

    however if equities stayed somehow flat then it would make sense more

    after qe3 is announced euro 1.7 1.8 no problem silver to xxx - insert your guess

    unexpected would be if posx went down with equities together

    some banker from europe - i think deutsche bank - said that in 90s there was a time when dollar and commodities were positively correlated anybody remeber this?

  114. @Rob
    Sounds like mathematical masturbation instead of investing. Your sampling set may be lacking in statistical significance. I'd take it though.

  115. @Kiwi.. so true.. I like you... you're my new friend!

    You are bang on.. when it was 35.13 earlier.. I was feeling crappy...should have hit the button...

  116. @blister

    Cool thanks brother!
    No trade then just sitting on big pile of physical.
    Will wait on trade...


  117. LOng John

    Not specifically familiar with any of those, but the overriding rule on these things is that if you get a nice gain you MUST take some off the table. At least SOME, maybe ALL.

    I know it's incredibly hard to do. It's easy to fall in love with a story and think "I'll just keep holding forever and get a 10 bagger or a 100 bagger and this will be the lottery ticket that solves all my problems, yada yada yada." BUT, seriously that hardly ever happens. The odds are hugely against it.

    If you bought some at .75 and now it's 3.50, take some off. I don't care if it was 5.

    That's my 2 cents.

  118. I own calls on the July silver future. They expire on 6/27. First notice day for July delivery is 6/30.
    I hope that helps.

    Does anyone know when the AGQ calls would end. do they normally have the same date or different date from the commodity options.

    Thanks everyone

  119. @Eric and Long John..

    Eric is 100% right.. earlier this week I was nicely up on silver.. I didnt set stops and didnt take profit... I'm now badly in the red..

    You never know when or how quickly something will flip..

  120. "The fiat price obtained through action on the Comex is now so disconnected from physical reality that it seems ludicrous to even participate in the nonsense."

    Turd, are you truly coming to that conclusion only just now?

    Can any of the followers of this blog please explain to me, in a calm and rational way, how playing the Comex casino (whether you profit or lose) is part of the solution to the crimes being commited, rather than part of the problem?
    Thanks in advance.

  121. Sockeye1
    I believe options on stocks expire on the third friday of the month.

  122. @Turd

    After discovering, and following this site a little over a month ago, I've decided to follow your advice, along with some of the other sage people here. I had wanted to learn and participate in the paper silver game, and was quickly warned off. After seeing the machinations and outright felonies committed by TPTB I have decided to just keep stacking the physical and "do my part" in the battle against the EE. Many thanks to you and the "gamblers" here. I will confine my gambling to the thoroughbreds, where there are actual consequences if the owner/trainer/jockey is caught cheating.

  123. Long John

    I am not familiar with the company you mention but that does not matter. first it is doing well so because we are at the beginning of a huge bull market you should hold on until this market gets much much higher.

    I am in favor of holding all mining stocks for the long term. The hard trick is to find good ones that go up. YOu seem to have a winner.

    The ocrrect way to trade is to hold on to the winners and get rid of the losers.

    I would consider buying more.


  124. @NCOT

    You may have another opportunity coming in the next hour...

    As for me, I am thinking I may have reached the limit of my risk tolerance and need to get out of most of my silver contracts before the weekend. If I do, that probably confirms we are at the bottom! :))

  125. @Uptofreedom..

    Dip = the bit where I sell what I bought on "the spike" and before it goes up.

  126. @NCOT

    Welcome! Love your avatar, dude!

    Unless you are buying for a short term scalp, I think we are going to see lot's lower than 35$ silver... a week or so of losing a percent a day on the stock market will suck the money out of everything (with the high margin rates, any kind of a downturn may turn in to a rout, as folks have to satisfy margin calls or save what little cash they have left). I think we have days or weeks to a really solid silver bottom, and as soon as I uncurl from the fetal position I'll pull my thumb out of my mouth and buy, buy, buy.... ;-)

  127. We're $12 lower in gold and 0.50 lower in silver almost 1% and 1.5% respectively. I'd call that a dip.

  128. any suggestions for REAL TIME trading here? I use ShareBuilder and it blows. I make a market order and it tacks $.05 onto the posted ask price. I make a limit order ABOVE the listed ask to protect against that and it sits for an hour unfilled. Fucking ridiculous. Need better software to be able to trade quickly.

  129. @NCOT
    nothing better than self depricating humor. so endearing.

  130. i'm not touching silver for now unless something changes. those 2 5min bars back to back that took us ~from 35 to 36 and back this morning tell me that the algos really don't want to see 36 silver today...

  131. Jon

    I'm happy with TDAmeritrade.

  132. @DE
    Hang in there. This is not the day to sell.
    Buying opportunity maybe. I still feel July trades with a $8. Cash premiums high for corn now, futures need to catch up with cash market.

  133. @level-headed - you live up to your handle

  134. @drachma,

    It's a valid point you raise. I think (big assumption) that many here hold a physical position, and therefor feel comfortable wagering some of their fiat around that core position. I think Turd has demonstrated that you can profit from the manipulation if you use unconventional methods by tracking the trading patterns of the banks, then trade off their shorts at critical support areas. That's a strategy- not a 100% positive return. You may complicate that approach by leveraging your account with time-sensitive options. I think many people over leverage themselves with calls, but Turd is not in a position to tell anyone how to manage their risk.

  135. wow, an honest man. no wonder you see through the fraudulence, TF.

  136. Thanks, Eric#1. I'll check it out. Do your trades always execute within their posted spread when you buy/sell?

  137. lol NCOT... I know the feeling...

  138. Making a higher low sometimes sucks but it does not change the fact that we are still in a manipulated, mangled, POS, witchcrafted, shorted to high heaven, plunge protected, BULL MARKET!

  139. @Level trying to keep my spirits up...

    @Kiwi, thanks for that... I'll be photoshopping it over the weekend. I have a green one on standby for when I'm in profit...

  140. Free easy hot dead head fed funds to the insolvent bankster fraudsters are drowning our money. USDinker dollar will be so diluted the green ink will be clear; clear as monetary stores of substantial value are bulking up for the USDinker dollar crisis. We don't know when, but a trigger; tipping point is coming.

  141. Timer, some of us are interested in your pentagonal window on price movements (my interest is theoretical: each of the points would correspond to one of five elements for example; there would be a tie-in with the 8-year cycle; etc.). do you have an email address or something?

  142. loving the POSX chart right now... down boy down... good boy... now play dead....

  143. @jack
    Thanks buddy. Just trying to help. Hope I'm around the next time I see a top to sound the alarm.

  144. Jon
    I've hardly ever been screwed on a market order, but if there's any doubt about the liquidity of a stock (like some miners or some ETF's) I'll stick with a limit order, and that works fine too. Generally, limit orders are recommended by experienced people, but sometimes I'm lazy. :D

  145. Friends, I just sold out of Medinah, Mirasol, and as much as I hated to do it, Silverquest too. Lost marginally on the first 2, made money on SQIFF.

    For now we're mostly trading sideways or down. I do think Ag will rise in June per Turd's roadmap, but think soft prices will allow some favorable re-entry points for the limited frn's I'm putting into miners during this interval.

    As most here are saying (and doing), PM Ounce Accumulation is where it's at. Buy Gold, buy Silver. Rinse. Repeat.

    In a world full of phony "perception paper", PMs are The Real Thing.

  146. What's everyone thinking about gold right now? Anyone buying? What about crude?

    wordver: knowdat (wish I did...) LOL

  147. Hey, boys & girls, I almost forgot to ask. Did ya'll get that email I got from Apmex about their 24 hour sale? They are offering silver rounds at .99 over spot, no minimum. What does that say? Do they want to stimulate sales at the current price because they see weaker spot prices in the near term? It would also indicate they must have ample supply.

  148. Bill Downey's comments on silver this morning:

    SILVER MUST CLOSE ABOVE 36.50 to take downside pressure off. In summary ---- silver has more pressure than gold due to industrial use ----- the STOCK market NUMBER to watch is 1289 on the S&P ----- if they break that --- the pressure will be on. Its best to be patient before jumping in silver ----esp with the weekend here. A close above 36.50 will take some pressure off.

  149. Well, "The Price is Right" is just about done, so my son and I are going to head out and do some fishing. Good Luck all.

  150. @Eric #1

    Thanks for the input. Good to know. I'm trading all SLV options this AM, so I don't expect any liquidity issues. I'm trading flat this morning because of whatever the issue is. Had one trade end up as a wash even though based on quoted ask i should've booked $2k.

    I can handle market issues fine... never really get pissed about a bad trade that *I* make, but for some reason not being able to rely on your trading tool just pissed me off to no end.

    sigh. Rant over. :)

  151. re: apmex

    Didn't they send out a big offer to pay extra premium to buy all your Eagles right at the top? Now they want to sell. Maybe they are a contrary indicator, and maybe this is a bottom.

    I have no idea, just thinking out loud.

  152. EUR/USD 1,46 that can´t be good ;-)

  153. Atlee...

    I'm same as you. Other than my physical, I'm not playing with silver for now... started holing DGP over the weekend about two weeks ago without fear, relatively speaking. It's not as much "fun" as AGQ was, but it's been steady and stable relatively speaking. I will likely hold some over the weekend again today.

  154. @Scott... as much as I'd love it to... 36.50 aint gonna happen...

    When people say 'close' do they mean the NYMEX close in just over an hour or the US close or the Globex Close (which isnt really a close, more a lunch break)?

  155. @ Old navy
    re gold

    long from 1528 this morning. looking for 1550 to 1560. stop now 1520. or if daily stoch drops below 80. if those parameters not meet, not afraid to carry thru weekend.
    take half profit at 1550 if hit today

  156. @blister:

    Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I understand the motivation. What I am concerned about either way is that, if we want to end this game sooner rather than later, we should just stop feeding the beast entirely. At the very least, I would hope that players herein, even if reluctantly in the game, would not play on leverage. With all due respect, whether we like to admit it or not, the greed monster is palpable, even on this site. And if the argument is made that we must make a living somehow with our fiat, well to those I would say, get out and get your hands dirty rather than churn paper in hopes of salvation.


  157. @fort

    DGP is good vehicle. Good play! there too! big move coming for gold, question is when but thinking a $300 move. screw silver 4 now. total crap shoot.

  158. @eric...thanks, point well taken....that is my plan going forward.

    @sockeye....thank you also, thats how i felt before, but some of these puppies i own will be putting in sell prices. Will keep others long term like SLW, SSRI, XME, DBA, DBO, HL etc

  159. Tekoa DaSilva at Contrary Investors Cafe has a new interview with Bob Chapman up today at

    Bob addresses the DSK situation and other interesting topics. Also- - Bob makes his weekly appearance on the A. Jones radio program today at 2pm EDT. He's always a good listen:

    Enjoy. To me, Bob's the most switched-on septuagenarian in the Western world.

    PS.... Word verification: UNRIG, can you believe it??? Cross my heart.

  160. Thanks, that a move up or down for Gold you speak of friend? :)

  161. not drinking yet, though I should start.
    New thread.

  162. @Fort & atlee

    Thanks for mentioning DGP, I had not looked at it before. I agree, atlee, I "feel" there is a lot of upside potential in gold. Silver, might go to Turd's June upside of 42 or, just as likely, to Martin Armstrong's downside in the mid-20's. It will come roaring back sometime this year, but I can't ride it down any further right now.

    @All - Yesterday I made a firm statement that I was sticking to Turd's roadmap for June, and staying long JUL SLV options. This morning I woke up thinking I would reverse that stance. I was thinking what to say in my post to this board, only to find when I finally got here that the general sentiment, including our leader's, was pretty much the same as mine.

    The only reason I post my thoughts is because I suspect that I am articulating what many others are also thinking about and maybe that helps them. So, in the interest of honesty let me say that I will NOT be long silver options after today's close. I have already liquidated half my SLV contracts. Held my nose and took losses I didn't want to take. But, I don't play with money I can't afford to lose and I still have money in my trading account. Maybe it will go to DGP, or GLD or DBO calls. I'll make that decision for next week. Getting out today and taking the weekend off.

    One last point. I have said before I like James Arthur Ray's concept of "harmonic wealth". That is, there are five categories of wealth: Spiritual, Physical (health), Intellectual, Relationships, and Financial. I find that I derive benefits in all five of these areas from this blog. However, being a highly focused individual, it is very hard for me to pay adequate attention to more than one thing at a time. I think for now I need to back off from financial wealth management a little so I can focus more on some of my other "accounts". My daughter is getting married next month and my wife is very focused on that event. I need to be also. I am also starting a new consulting contract in a couple weeks, and there will be new relationships and intellectual challenges to be handled. It's all good! Don't want to shortchange any of it.

    So, I am jumping off the "silver bull ride" for a time. The new contract gives me additional cash flow that can go to stacking physical and accumulating miner other stocks. I'll do my options trading on something more predictable and sedate than silver for the next 2-3 months.

    Not that it is important what I chose to do, but perhaps this will be helpful to someone else.

  163. We have reached a binary condition:

    1. Either those who are long silver and gold are in serious trouble.
    2. Or those who are either short or not long silver and gold are in serious trouble.

    Patterns across all markets suggest a transition to #2. If this is the case, the next move(s) could be ferocious, and I do mean astonishing.


  164. Waffen said:
    I started this at the worst time, late April with 8K but now I have a value of $880 =/-


    my heart goes out to you. Incredible bad luck. You just started trading at the top of the market. OMG. I will keep you in my prayers.

    I am working to get started. I did not start yet. I am working my butt off. I ordered a couple of books on trading today from Amazon.

    I would love to be able to talk to you on the phone and share some of your experiences. Maybe it would help me not make at least one of your mistakes. Right now I am trying to recover from getting the SSOOMP on these slap downs.

    you will have to guess the first word. the last 5 are scared out of my pants.

  165. The Turd said: "The simplest strategy is to avoid the Comex, altogether. Do not play their games. Leave the "speculation" up to us lobotomized fools. Just keep stacking your physical and look the other way."

    That describes me... I watch the price but otherwise I'm physical only. I make less money but I sleep well. $36 is a good place to buy physical.


    I am a #2

    1. Either those who are long silver and gold are in serious trouble.
    2. Or those who are either short or not long silver and gold are in serious trouble.

  167. solar panelgun safe
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