Monday, June 6, 2011

Half-Full or Half-Empty?

I guess it all depends on how you choose to look at it.

Half-full: In the face of a rising POSX, a falling euro, negative crude and sharply lower grains, the PMs performed admirably in eeking out slight gains on the day.

Half-empty: After rallying all morning, gold stood just $3 away from a headline-grabbing, all-time closing high at noon EDT. The buyers had seized the day and the EE was on the run. Sadly, the buyers seemed to simply give up and call it a day before their work was done. This allowed the monkeys to take over and drive gold back down almost $10 by the close. Yuck.

By the descriptions above, I guess you can tell how I feel about today's events.

Oh well, today is over and its onto the overnight and Tuesday trade. Without question, the item of the day for tomorrow will be the performance of the POSX. It faces two very strong lines of resistance that are both intersecting around the 74 level. IF it can clear 74, the newly-energized bulls will seize the day and quickly drive it back toward 75. IF, however, it acts like it's supposed to, the 74 level will cap today's meager rally and the index will head lower, toward 73.50. Let's hope the latter scenario plays out as it will activate the "risk on" button of WOPR and send stocks and commodities higher on Tuesday.


Today's weakness in crude presents traders with another opportunity to get long near support and with limited downside risk. I gotta tell ya, if I was some big $ hedgie, I'd be all over this one. You can buy right here, between 98 and 99 and put a stop below the recent lows of 95. That's about $4 of downside risk. Your upside, however, is almost infinite.

The PM charts are simply updates of the charts I posted this morning. Sadly, gold failed to hold 1550 and was successfully beaten back for the fourth time in four days. Again, why The Cartel is so determined to keep it below 1550 and why buyers are so reluctant to drive it through are questions for which I don't have an answer. Feel free to posit your own theory in the comments section.

Lastly, here's a piece from one of my favorite commentators, Mark Steyn. It's about two weeks old but still relevant to the discussion here.
http://www.steynonline.com/content/view/4084/28/

Have a great evening. Keep checking back as I may have more for you later. TF

291 comments:

  1. Thanks Turd.. I'm half full...

    but then my wife always tells me I'm completely full of sh..

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  2. the board seems awfully slow today...

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  3. ..."why The Cartel is so determined to keep it below 1550 and why buyers are so reluctant to drive it through are questions for which I don't have an answer."

    The only theory I can come up with is Martin Armstrong's bottom is 6/13. Playing out beautifully.

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  4. and we lost a lot of readers ....
    so few postings

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  5. CDE on it's third test of 25.00. Each time it's held. 25 also just happens to be the 200 MA and the bottom channel of the bb. It would be a risky trade, but if 25 holds, a high reward trade.

    Any breach of 25 and look out below. Stop 24.89

    No FUBUM. Expect an ass-kicking into the close. THis is an awful day.

    SSK

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  6. Someone is making a lot of money on this gold range trading. Unfortunately, it's not me.

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  7. Light postings reveal the losses in both people and portfolios. Lots of folks have had a come to Jesus (or wife) moment the last month or so.

    Or could just be summer vacation. Which reminds me, I have a sandy beach to get back to.

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  8. You write: "Again, why The Cartel is so determined to keep it below 1550 and why buyers are so reluctant to drive it through are questions for which I don't have an answer. "

    I answer: The Cartel is big and wants to suppress the price of gold for perception reasons.

    The buyers are small and want to buy at a lower price then they will sell at.

    So, the Cartel is the one big enough to push the price to their desires at critical points. The buyers push the price unintentionally and only when they think gold is about to go up. They must not be bullish enough to push it all the way over $1550 when the Cartel is leaning the other way.

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  9. Miners today

    I'm confused as to why anyone is wondering what's up with miners today.

    Peru, by far the biggest silver producer in the world, just elected a radical socialist as president.

    This guy is extreme. and once suggested all gays should be killed, just to give you a feeling for what kind of temperament you're dealing with.

    Horrible for miners, good for silver, especially in the long term, as Peru will be producing less in future, due to lack of investment.

    A few of us have been talking about this for 6 weeks now, shouldn't be a surprise.

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  10. Titus,

    Not me either. The upside is so thin. The downside is brutal. You need to be shorting to make money off a miner in this market. And that's hard to get your head around.

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  11. GDXJ outperfoming GDX. That's peculiar.

    CDE breaking down. Shit.

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  12. 1/3 of my gold position taken away this morning @ 1551.5 while I was out; trying to buy some more below 1543.50; own more July corn at 7.36; still long WTI and silver; not just doing something, standing there.

    Beautiful day in NYC today for the field trip; looking over the waterfront, was reminded that, 67 years ago today, better people than me faced worse weather, and a worse waterfront, in Normandy.

    Thank you, Vets, both from then and thereafter.

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  13. @SSK

    I'm with you, it's a slow decline in the whole market. But shorting seems fraught with problems, I figure I'd short just as an uptick comes along. So I guess I'll just sit tight for another day and wait for the fat pitch.

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  14. ERX crashing $69 as AAPL crashes $339

    Everyone running as fast as they can from falling knife! Make that cleaver!!

    This is one super weak market FTFD..Fuck the Fucking Dip.

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  15. I'd love to see gold in this trend channel rather than running too fast and correcting harder...as far as my emotions go, anyway. Actually, I'm comfortably numb on all PM's after the May massacre and am now just enjoying the pre fireworks leading up to July 4th.

    Also, does any have the link to the blogger that does the cyclical analysis on silver, S&P, etc? He's been mentioned a few times and forgot to bookmark his page. Thanks.

    And if it hasn't been mentioned, APMEX has 2011 Eagles for $3.99 over spot, free ship if you order a tube or more (20 oz).

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  16. Algos going nutso on the miners into close. So typical.

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  17. Gold hit an all time closing high today London PM fix @ $1549.

    In light of that fact, the bearish tone on PM's is truly amazing.

    Bay of Pigs

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  18. Its like the buggers know where my stops are!

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  19. The tell-tale sign of an imminent raid that mining shares are not moving or even weakening despite a silver price surge is the pattern we've seen over and over again and should be well recognized by now.

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  20. My silver glass is still half full. Short-term charts lookin' hairy, but the 4hr and daily have regained some support and are holding onto it so far... Seein' lots of buyers that weren't there last week.

    Major support at 36.26 and 35.9. Closing above the 36.26 is key.

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  21. Thanks Turd

    ~ More than half full from where I'm standing -especially considering the broader market. Market sector overview shows PM's (besides Platinum) dollar and base metals are the only 'winners' or 'non-losers' today.

    In order of severity ::

    XOP Oil&Gas ETF = down
    OIH Oil Services ETF = down
    XLE Agriculture ETF =down
    XLF Financials ETF = down
    XMS Mining ETF = down
    XHB S&P Homebuilders ETF = down
    XRT S&P Retail = down
    IYT S&P Transportation ETF = down
    S&P500 index ETF = down
    XLB Materials ETF = down
    XLY cons discretionary ETF = down
    XLI Industrial ETF = down
    XLV Health care ETF = down
    XLK Technology ETF = down
    XLP Consumer Staples ETF = down
    SMH semiconductors ETF = down
    PPLT platinum ETF = down



    Gold = up
    Palladium =up
    Silver = up

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  22. 1543 and 36.50 that's $12 and .75 dip. Anyone need to noble some more. Here is your chance.

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  23. financials getting crushed today too...C and BAC down more than 4%.

    Suddenly my UBT is looking goood.

    Juncker just said the euro is overvalued, at least someone else agrees with me, lol.

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  24. Humahuaca,

    Then every miner outside of Peru would be up, yeah? Please try again.

    The Peruvian miners got hit already frontrunning the election. They are in fact some of the least hit today.

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  25. Lol @ Tesla... I was about to say...

    Still half full though...

    Having faith in the Asians..

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  26. kill the miners...hehehhe.....hedges loadin' the shorts......They have total control of gold as a trade.....longer term its still goin UP.....shorter term THEY have control.....THEY own virtually ALL of the gold....they are not letting you in the trade.....gold is the MONEY of KINGS

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  27. btw, 36.26 is Ira Epstein's key MA(18) indicator. Above that and it's still on like Donkey Kong. Prolly why they're trying so hard to bang it lower...

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  28. Deep thoughts for June: I would love to hear others opinions

    Downdraft Equities Theory:
    Equities have had a huge run in last 12 months.- defies logic.

    QE2 ends June. Congress would not approve a QE3 if things are wine and roses with the economy. They would need some encouragement such as equity nosedive.

    Debt Ceiling - Talking heads say they want it raised. Congress may not approve if things look so good. Watched Dick Whats-his-name from C this weekend on Bloomberg. He said not raising the debt ceiling would be worse than great depression (or something of the sort) Tiny Tim says similar things. etc etc. Moodys, etc says will downgrade if no movement. Therefore, I think the hand will be forced. Forced by everyone freaking out about stock market. It already FAILED in the house last week (why nobody talks about it I do not know)

    Euro in chaos, Arab states being stirred up by Western goons, and now all in chaos. Greeks pulling Money out of Banks, Other counties are starting to follow. Japan is Fuckushimied!

    Anal-ysts coming out and saying "markets are dangerous"

    Sorry but always a factor..., Bilderberg confab is 6-12th. I think all of the white shoe boys will rub off on each other and discussions will be about markets falling and I feel many will get it as a signal to bail.

    I would love any feedback on this possible as I am refining this in my head. In a nutshell I see equity downdraft and will take up days to load up on more naked puts. Financials and indexes mostly right now.

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  29. eighty percent of Americans....the "richest country in the world" cannot even buy ten gold coins......think about it......50 percent can't buy one coin

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  30. that is a great trade for oil turd - i'm in and thanks for the tip

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  31. Crap day for me too guys.

    Not much else to say about it...

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  32. I'm pretty all full as I've achieved my PM targets (in Oz's). From here on out I'm a cash stacker/opportunity PM buyer.

    As much as I hate to see ZIRP and inflation whittle away the cash stack, it still has its uses. I'll continue to make smallish PM purchases as the cash reaches certain levels and I just MIGHT do a BIG buy if conditions warrant. But mostly I sit and wait...

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  33. Now i have a little naive question.

    If they keep hamering down gold and silver, and as i understand, they can kind of do this unlimmited by creating more of the paper stuff at will. Then isn't there a good chance that they will keep it down until until the end where the whole paper thing breaks appart with the paper price never significantly rising above current levels ? So we can never make a profit only lose our complete investment in paper when it busts ?

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  34. Massive triple-bottom with head-up-anus pattern forming.

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  35. From Daniel FCB:
    Don't know if this has been talked about, but look at BVN (Peru Gold Miner). Humala was elected and in the past, Humala meant nationalization. Could this be what's contributing to whatever's going on?

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  36. Can we Nuke the Bilderberg confab and save the world?
    Maybe some of their pet Anal-ist too?
    (we could invite Bernanke and Timmy and mr Dimon to the same party?)

    LMK

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  37. I did very well today.

    TBT - paid
    DXD - Paid
    RVM - paid ( small )

    Just bought some UBT as well, miners are not even on my mind other than RVM as a long..I will not touch miners until Autumn.

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  38. Today seems like a lull in the stormy waters we sail. We can expect, though, that nothing is static and the undercurrent of all the world's problems are brewing an even stronger event which will hit us when we least expect it. Each day, for me, seems like I stand on less firm ground than the day before....because I see what once was the greatest governmental experimehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/half-full-or-half-empty.html#comment-formnt ever conceived, the U.S. Constitution, has lost its sway... even in the hearts of its citizens. I'm preaching to the choir, I know. The fact that most citizens don't even understand the concept of "unalienable Rights" is appalling. How can we expect to change anything when we aren't willing to take both the accountability and responsibility for our actions.....so how can we expect Government to do anything different.

    Sometimes I just get so frustrated....when you've been behind the end of rifle sending bullets downrange for the sake of God and Country....its hard to see it crumple and implode.

    Moving on..... I see more downward pressure on stocks as the market begins to really absorb the momentary pause in QE and ponders how they are going to get it all inflated. I do think PMs will take some of the ride down as we approach the end of the month, but I remain long PMs.

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  39. ignore the url awkward placement.... slip of the mouse pad.

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  40. @beprepared - are you an OathKeeper? Sounds like you should be, if you're not...

    oathkeepers.org

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  41. Could it be that Uncle Sam is operating a dark pool that is shorting commodities to keep the CPI in check? Just wondering...

    Newbie Argentum

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  42. @russh56

    Who else could it be?

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  43. I remain short paper silver as a 1/3 hedge to my core and physical. My position is this downdraft still has run room to as far as 30 and maybe even 28/26. It's a bet I'm making with myself as to how far they'll let stocks drop before forcing the hand of Congress. I'll let ya'll know when I close it out. Otherwise, not trading this market. Am looking for deep dips to buy more physical on.

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  44. Barring some catastrophic news event, I'm guessing that the PMs will continue to trade sideways most of the summer, then in fall and winter prices will rise. Summer dips = buying opportunity for me, in physical metal.

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  45. I am not OathKeeper....but I am active with my represenatives trying to implore them to do the rights things. The challenge is that both parties are really the same with only the smallest variations between them. The fact that the Patriot Act was extended so easily in both houses is, unfortunately, a direct indication of exactly what our Representatives think of the Constitution and our rights. Many days I think we live in ancient Rome where the representatives were merely a thin veil to the Caeser that really ruled...fun times...fun times....if I say it enough....I might really start to believe it. :-}

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  46. BTW; I'm a newbie... what is POSX?

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  47. @russh56

    Actually I believe that the banks and governments are the patsy's that will take it on the chin when SHTF for the financial super elite ie Bilderbergs mentioned by MB above =[

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  48. miners will perform well this year.....you are very near a beautiful buy.....Marty Armstrongs june 13 is looking pretty good....gl

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  49. @russh56

    piece of sh*t x = dollar index

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  50. @ Code the Plumber

    I guess I don't know which miners you are talking about, as here are a few with peru exposure;

    SCCO -11%
    BVN -15%
    PAAS -5% (less peru exposure than above)

    A few others have smaller peru exposure like:

    CDE -1.3%
    FCX -0.24%

    So which miners do you have that are not in peru that are down more than 15%?

    BAP credicorp is a big financial in Peru, it's down 20% today, so the idea that stocks were sold ahead of the election is a little questionable, to be polite, wouldn't you say?

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  51. Thanks, Tesla... I hope you're right about the elite. Let THEM eat cake (sh*t)!

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  52. ONe ray of sunshine today. I went to the coin shop, said bye bye to some silver, and took home another British Sovereign. :)

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  53. to any tech savvy dwellers here ...

    I have a Excell spreadsheet I would like to post to a webpage somewhere so I can provide a link to that page here so it could be viewed by anyone here who would have interest.

    If you know how I could do this EASILY please help me out. I would want to update it on a weekly basis by updating my in house copy then reposting over the one that would be on the page. Please be as thorough as possible in the explanation ... thanks in advance.

    Gotta cut the grass ... check back later.

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  54. Silver is Crazy, so until we know which way it's going in the short term...
    ... Try looking at FAZ - 3x Bear Financial ETF.

    We all know the stock market will continue to get hit, until the debt ceiling is increased and QE3 is announced. So, why not ride this pony down to the show?.

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  55. Anyone have a close estimate of the percentage of world silver production that comes out of Peru?

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  56. This is the time in the Gold and Silver bull market that will try the patience of Job. May we all have such patience. Those who don't will pay dearly, IMHO.

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  57. Re; Spreadsheet;
    @Chin Music
    Try putting it on Google spreadsheets. You can start by going to https://docs.google.com/#home

    Here is a useful one for silver... https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ajym06WyPAdmdFRRUmlBc1B0alYtWWlIS0t1aEMyNVE&hl=en#gid=14

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  58. @Chin - Google Docs mebbe? I've never done it but I'm pretty sure you can import an excel file.

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  59. Half full.

    Good with sitting on my AGQ overnight.

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  60. NCOT I do think that stops are visible and they get played. It's not personal that is no trade desk is targeting 'you' but if your stop happens to be at or above the level needed to cause a significant trigger then yours is caught in the net.

    Not much of a conspiracy nut but when it comes to peeking at the stops it's just too easy to pass over.

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  61. according to the silver institute, in 2010 peru accounted for 15.8 % of world production.

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/production.php

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  62. Dr Durden:

    There are a couple of cycle guys I follow; both are very good (especially Doc):

    http://www.thedocument.com/
    http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

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  63. I think R man J is right about people waiting to see what comes of Armstrong's prediction.

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  64. EXK has no Peru exposure (that I can find) and was down 7.7% today. I picked some up at 8.53

    OF

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  65. And as the end of the day rolls around, they've kept gold exactly flat, amazing.

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  66. @beprepared - well, when you get tired of waiting on your congresscritter to do the right thing, you should check the oathkeepers out.

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  67. What the hell are you guys talking about? Silver is UP from it's Sunday open, and silver's been the question mark, fer cryin' out loud!.

    Gold absolutely blew away 1550 (it didn't just kiss it and run away), and is setting up for a very strong move higher.

    If you want to trade successfully, you have to learn to handle volatility (losses, drawdowns, etc.). Otherwise, you will blow up your acct. You have to learn to stay psychologically at peace. Don't worry about evil cabals--it should just be you and the tape.

    Don't mean to lecture, but the overall tone of this thread was bothering me. and I was trying to add something helpful.

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  68. I added a bit to my gold Comex position on that "dip". I'll let you all know if that was the bottom or if the real dip is yet to come. (a joke.)

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  69. @humahuaca;

    Thanks, guy! You know, 15.8% is a very large piece of the pie. Wish we could see an equivalent increase in silver value as a result of the election of a socialist (which might end up spelling "nationalization")! That probably won't happen, but it should still have significant ramifications in the marketplace.

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  70. @DE,
    Ditto on the D-Day vets!
    Bad day for the grain bulls!
    I was stopped out break even on corn today and bought back on the close. Crop report shows corn
    94% planted vs 98% average. Market probably trading this number, but this is still 5 million unplanted acres. Crop Report

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  71. @humahuaca

    CDE has no Peru exposure! Don't know about the others you mentioned tho.

    Phantom

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  72. @Level Head that was a good call at 36.40.... got a little bit.. shouldve got more!

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  73. @ Chin Music

    You could try www.skydrive.com
    If you have a windows live ID (hotmail account), you can upload a Microsoft Office document really easily and anyone else can view it.

    H

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  74. Richard - Sage advice, and things I'm still working on myself. Psychologically at peace is a great mode to be in, especially in rocky markets.

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  75. @ncot
    So far so good. Odds favoring trades is all you can ask for. DYODD...but I have had "the magic" lately.

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  76. @ Phantom

    Ahh sorry you are right about CDE, I was going by memory as we talked about it before, but now I recall it was in context of Evo Morales in Bolivia threatening to nationalize mines.

    IIRC CDE had a 9% exposure to bolivia.

    Hard to keep track of all these left wing dictators taking over SA again, lol.

    Just reinforces my point though, the miners without peru exposure were hit a lot less.

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  77. @Level, I had a stop (with profit) at 36.45..

    saw it bounce of 36.39 so put the 3/4 of the same trade back on...

    That 15c surge just now looked nice too..

    But this is silver.. easy come, easy go!

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  78. I think if you have a website you can just upload the updated file for download on a site? It is a question specific to how your website works, not how excel works. If the site works with frontpage it is easy too.

    I am thinking of the following trades in my mind now. Anyone please let me know if you think I am off:

    1 - Think the SPX will "pop" up over 1,300 before it goes into a nosedive. Once it does, I will short it for a time until they get ready to announce QE3 after it has taken a hit.

    2 - I want to get another short term crude at close to $98 (it is on the higher end now so I am still waiting some) to sell when it pops a few points. Holding Sept. crude

    3 - I want to buy another gold if it dips under $1530 range to sell at $1550. Holding my longer term in-the-money gold from the high 1400s.

    4 - I took a loss on silver and want to enter back in at $36 support level. This is the riskiest trade, I think.

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  79. Regarding Peru's Election and effect on miners check out silvergoldsilver


    "Humala, the "mining" leech has won. BUT, in his speech he did a COMPLETE 180 U turn, and "after initially vowing to renegotiate free trade agreements and rewrite the constitution "to create an economic regime with social justice as its goal" he reversed himself, pledging to instead follow Brazil's market-friendly model for elevating the poor.http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/

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  80. wtheck is gold doing on netdania? same couple dollar exact loss/gain over and over...

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  81. 1543.70, 1544.40, repeat.....repeat...

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  82. @LaMachinna

    Market is closed from 5:15 - 6:00 EST thats just a bid ask spread echo

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  83. same w/silver?? anyone else's view the same or has my computer lost it's everlasting mind? :)

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  84. oh, never seen that before? forgive the ignorance! Thanks!

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  85. Its cool - I thought it was weird fist time I noticed too

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  86. As I said awhile back, I think the run in commodities is over. A couple of phone calls will be made to OPEC and they'll start flooding the world with cheap oil again and we'll see the dollar bounce hard off that April low at 72.

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  87. From a few threads ago.

    "I agree with some of the rest of what you wrote, but you sure are an arrogant dick about it. You've been angry and talking down to this blog for weeks. I can't help thinking that *you* are one of those who's losing his ass on the trading floor."

    If that is true, then let me apologize to everyone who was offended. In the end, I only meant well I guess, trying to warn of certain behaviors that can end up being destructive, even if it didn't come across like that.

    Good luck to all.

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  88. Ingenious Brits!

    The theft of copper cables from Britain's railways is reaching epidemic proportions, costing the operator Network Rail millions of pounds as it takes on extra staff to catch the criminals and pays out compensation to train companies for delays on the system.

    Copper theft from railway lines jumped by 67% to 3,116 incidents in the year to April as metal prices have soared and Britain's stumbling recovery from recession has continued to push impoverished groups into crime, according to the British Transport Police.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jun/06/theft-of-copper-costs-network-rail-millions-of-pounds

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  89. "Rui said...
    I don't like it when miners are not confirming the silver high open. That plus the strange surge in COT gold shorts seems to indicate an ambush sometime this week."

    This has me worried (or at least interested) as well. Am very curious how this plays out over the rest of the week.

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  90. Oh great... CNBS again

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43300748

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  91. Obviously so much I don't know and all the more grateful for Turd and all you here. Thanks!!! :)

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  92. @LaMachinna

    Did you notice the spread got more spastic as we approach GLOBEX open?
    This part I DO NOT understand other than to guess the computers that are making the market have switched over to different units maybe?

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  93. @Silver_Watchdog on twitter:

    Another 438,708 oz of registered silver lost from HSBC today. http://bit.ly/jramJ6

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  94. @uptofreedom

    Im intrigued by the Oathkeepers you referenced.

    Im heartened to learn there are some in the military who are prepared to think for themselves, as we kind of get the idea that a good military op is programmed to obey orders without hesitation.

    Are you able to guess at how big an uptake there is with the Oathkeepers org, as this could be a credible threat to the paymasters and presumably signing up puts you on their watch list ?

    rbl

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  95. Hmm CNBS World:

    "the FED is requiring banks maintain higher currency reserves"

    If I understand fractional backed lending - this means "WITHDRAW LIQUIDITY from the market" - or the opposite of stimulate... by reducing the total multiple of funds available to lend and contracting the money supply on purpose???

    It's like they are pushing the market downward intentionally to make way for their next play / manipulation...

    This should impact POSX positively ...correct?

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  96. range-trading is a way for algorithms to make money, but position players not. recall a few months ago the algs would sell off so blindly even a fool could buy the oversold and make money, and i mean across markets. that suddenly disappeared, and now we have this (across many markets PM's included). of course, call it concidence, but machines will grind on as they did in chess,--adapt or die (as in the Terminator movies, as one ZH commentator pointed out).

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  97. Let me restate what I just posted:

    If you wanted to create another credit crisis and crash the markets you could easily do so by reducing liquidity by a significant amount. Telling the banks to quit or drastically reduce lending creates a credit crunch and repeat (to lesser or greater degree) the 2008 crash or the 1930's or the 1870's depression scenario -

    am I missing something here?

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  98. @russh56 Thanks! for the Spreadsheet link

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  99. New blog post from Peter Schiff at KWN. Almost seems like Peter has been reading my posts about the Dow Gold Ratio.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/6_Peter_Schiff_-_We_Will_Destroy_the_Currency_Completely.html

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  100. Humahuaca said:

    "Hard to keep track of all these left wing dictators taking over SA again, lol."

    Sorta like what the USA went thru in '08. When given two bad choices, they and we picked the worst one.


    Word ver: piggi Where to begin??

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  101. Any thoughts on this?

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mcclellan/mcclellan060611.html

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  102. Pretty good slugfest going on in silver. Pretty high volume for this time without much change in price (yet).

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  103. Swamp,

    Human minds try to form patterns even where they don't exist. Once silver makes new highs any comparison will be blown out of the water. Notice also they don't bother comparing the gold action between the two time periods since that would flush the whole thing down the toilet.

    In hindsight I'm surprised I was stupid enough to believe there was a chance that silver would be allowed to make new all time highs in April. In retrospect they saw that as a massive threat and did everything possible to cause a waterfall decline.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Gee Whizz, here's some more current discussion of the DowGoldRatio.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/jun062011.html

    ReplyDelete
  105. @rblong

    I'm not sure how many official members there are. I do remember the 10k mark being passed a year or so ago, so it's at least that.

    Don't know about a watchlist. Wouldn't surprise me. If I am on one I'm not bothered, as I know I'm in good company.

    ReplyDelete
  106. I know many of you here also follow Zerohedge, but just in case you haven't seen this, here is another update on physical metal at COMEX. Lower we go. How low can we get?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comex-physical-silver-drops-fresh-all-time-low-288-million-ounces-3-drop-overnight-30-drop-s

    ReplyDelete
  107. Flaunt,

    Interesting perspective from the Gold side of things. Gold has been one hell of a barometer for a lot of things over the past 10 years or so.

    What always strikes me as weird whenever I see these sorts of comparisons is how the authors generally ignore the fundamentals between what drove the price in the 80's and what is driving the price now. Don't get me wrong - the data doesn't lie. But the first thing we learn in statistics is the "damn lies theory". The math is generally solid even in seemingly flawed statisitcal analysis. What is flawed is what we believe that math represents - how we interprut it and apply the data to current events and the world around us.

    Theories (conspiracy or otherwise) regarding the fragility of the Comex, the validity of SLV's holdings etc. are irrelevant in figuring out the price direction of PM's - silver included. The fact that the planet is in debt (and politically unstable) up to its arse is actually enough to keep all PM's and for that matter commodities in general moving up for some time to come. The only thing that could reverse this course in my mind is a return to fiscal prudence... if it is even possible at this stage.

    Based on this alone - silver may not end up being $500.00 or more an ounce but I think it is unlikely that it will become $5.00 an ounce again either.

    From a conservative stand point - if we look at the last 100 years the GSR probably averages about about 40:1 (someone can correct me if I am wrong here). If gold hits $2500.00 and ounce then silver is headed higher (almost double its current price) and that is simply based on historical averages and the current political/financial condition of the planet.

    You don't need to factor in anything you cannot prove 100% to argue for higher prices. You just need to look at recent history and factor in the math underlined by the fundamentals.

    IF some of the theories surrounding the COMEX and SLV are true then look out. When the cork comes off the price it will be a rocket ride. But that is a big IF and one I would not depnd on happening from an investment perspective. That being said with some fundamental math and current political issues creating an inflation friendly environment silver is still a good investment IMHO.

    Those looking to get rich off of silver may be dissapointed. However, like Gold, I would rather hold silver than most stocks and other types of paper investments over the coming months and years as it is a better hedge against the insane financial policies that would bankrupt most businesses and households if we as individuals adopted them.

    My .02 cents.

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  108. Swampfox - Seriously? Another effing "bubble" compared to 1980 article? What is that, like number 500 since the "crash." I almost threw up in my mouth when I saw the title. I think sites like that just plain lack content so they just type up a bunch of crud to fill it up. Uggh. No offense to you, just venting.

    Anyway I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I felt gold would lead us out of the pit in May and it has. And I think gold will retrace back to it's 150dMA this summer cause that's it's pattern. So if we see $1450 or so gold I think we also see sub $30 silver. Whatever, I'm strapped down for the long haul and patiently await another BTFTU opportunity.

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  109. I've been reading your dow to gold stuff Eric#1 with great interest as many here have. I just wanted to add you can do the same thing with the gold to silver ratio which we have also discussed and which I like a little more because I'd rather be stuck "holding a bag" of gold or silver rather than dow units if the dow ever fully crashes.

    Cant wait for the new site Turd! Heres to a happy Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Turd, it's a run up to qe3 . The markets and general economy must tank by all means possible. And we know the lengths the nice government men go to. Absurd! I believe it took bernanke about three weeks to announce qe2 after Jackson hole in 2010. Analysis correct mr. Ferguson...it's a dejavu.

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  111. @bbdgoco

    Not one person that I spoke to in the last 3 months in Peru wanted either Keiko or Humala, it's a quirk of their voting system that led to this awful result.

    Of course, I didn't exactly talk to a lot of people in poor barrios.

    PPK seemed to be the best choice, but he came 3rd in the first vote, leaving Keiko and Humala to run off.

    I thought Keiko would squeak in, but as someone else pointed out, Humala ran a good campaign saying he will be a moderate, so people believed him more than Fujimori's daughter.

    He might well turn out to be a Lula, but I am very skeptical.

    Anyway, if I had any investments in Peru, including shares in a mine, I would wait a bit for a relief rally, then sell.

    But that's because I like to sleep well at night. Who needs the drama? Invest in Chile, or Brazil, or Colombia if you want the high risk high reward.

    You won't be seeing a left wing dictator in Colombia any time soon, you can bet on that.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Chin, you can try http://www.dropbox.com/
    useful for other things too.

    ReplyDelete
  113. No miners for me ever. Options, Futures, and 2x ETFs provide ample leverage to the price of the metals.

    Mismanagement
    Nationalization
    Windfall profit taxes
    Stock market correlation
    Bad prospecting results
    Labor strikes
    Qualified labor shortages
    Bad HR policy
    PE compression
    Accounting errors/fraud
    Earnings dissapointments
    Elections

    Yucko Yucko. Who needs all these added risks?

    ReplyDelete
  114. Good evening, I'm a huge fan of the site, an avid reader since 2010. Sadly I own mining shares, and more mining shares....not enough phyz, or futures.
    Does Turd have any thoughts on the under performance of my miners?

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  115. LH - I tend to agree about the miners. It's hard enough figuring out what the metal itself is going to do without having to worry about all the other stuff that can go wrong with a company. I have held SIL, GDX, and GDXJ in the past, but never individual gold and silver stocks.

    What did you think of today's action? I'm interested to see what happens tomorrow afternoon when the Bernank gives his speech.

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  116. @flaunt
    Well we have kind of ugly GLD and SLV daily bars today. I certainly would have prefered to close near the lid instead of the bottom. Having said that, it smells to me like USA selling and global buying. I could see tomorrow being surprisingly strong. There's no shortage of people hoping and wishing and waiting for that last good sell off so they can get in. I heard an "analyst" or "trader" or something on CNBC today say that he's going to buy gold just as soon as it has a 10% correction. He must not have noticed that we just had an almost 8% correction. Just had one. Why would we have another? We just had one. Let me repeat, we just had one. Silver just corrected 35%, unless this whole bull market is over, the correction is over. I think there's going to be some people sucking hind tit as the metals lift off.

    I don't like are we are right at the top of the gold bolling band. It looks like it needs a few days to expand. We'll see if that happens.

    My opinions only DYODD fo sho.

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  117. @ swampfox

    That article was kind of interesting as I remember that bubble well, but I don't put all that much trust in charts, especially when they are stretched to try and make a match.

    I also agree with you 100% that basing your 'investment' on the idea that some other player is short is a really bad idea.

    If someone is short, someone else is long right?

    How do you know the 'short guy' hasn't hedged by buying options, mining shares, gold, copper, platinum, etc etc?

    And why haven't the owners of silver futures asked for delivery already? What are they waiting for?

    Obviously it's because they have bought on margin, and don't have the money (or the storage facilities) to take delivery.

    If they hadn't bought on margin why all the screaming about higher margin requirements?

    Silver and gold are going to go up in the very long term, but people expecting a get rich quick play are going to be disappointed, IMO.

    And if you're buying on margin, well, anything can happen.

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  118. Turd: earlier this year Martin Armstrong wrote that June 13-14 gold should make a low in order for the coming 4.3 years to be 'very interesting' i.e. positive. Do you rate Martin as Sinclair does?

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  119. LH: What do you make of the low amount of Silver in the Comex and its impact? Many thanks.

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  120. @flaunt

    Bernanke speaks ahead of the market close, at 3:45 p.m. ET, at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta.

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  121. SilverBleve

    Yup, a lot of guys play the gold-silver ratio as well. I'm sure you can remember I was talking about it a lot in late April, trying to encourage folks to start to nibble on some silver for gold swaps.

    Whether working the Gold/Silver or the Dow/Gold ratios, of course it always sounds simple but can be pretty hairy in practice. Assuming we are in a long term bull market, we can expect both ratios to decline over time, but as we saw in May with Gold/Silver it's not always in a straight line, and it's anybody's guess where to make the big ending swap.

    Nothing about any of this is easy. Good Luck.

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  122. my 2 cents...

    Alf fields called for a max 22 percent correction from a peak between 1548 to 1650 which i think we got at 1575, which corresponds to 1228 as part of intermediate wave 2 of major wave 3.

    Armstrong calls for a retest of support this year after breaking out of a long term channel. and this support lies at 1227.5. same as alf fields.

    i wouldn't want to bet against these 2 brilliant fellas, esp. when their calls are so similar. i believe there'll be a better buying opportunity in the coming months. meantime i'll just play with my maples n eagles.

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  123. I honestly don't know what to make of Armstrong.

    Re: miners. Buy good ones and hold on for dear life. You'll be rewarded....eventually.

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  124. you guys playin the miners and bitchin need to get out of this market. Go back and look at a three year chart then a five year then a ten year......get a fochin clue......its PAPER!! and they are going to SWING IT...up then down then consolidate.....get out if you are whining about this movement and STAY in physical. you have no business playing with these sharks......I am NOT kidding....they will strip you bare

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  125. ok i have some newbie questions

    - what is the stock symbol for crude that turd is talking about?

    -what is the POSX

    thanks

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  126. LevelHeaded - you do make a compelling case against mining stocks with your list. Can't say as I blame you or anyone for staying clear with all the volatility and blatant manipulation. It is after all, paper. I think we would all agree that physical is the safest and best.

    But mining stock (paper) are many times more reliable than Uncle Sam's paper POSX, with a lot more upside potential. I'm pretty heavily in the miners and will continue to be. Thing is, and it's an important thing... I have no more than 5% in any single miner stock (thanks Uncle Harry). If one goes down due to an item on your list the portfolio doesn't really budge. I consider it my own basket.

    My opinion (formed by many trusted expert opinions) is that mining shares will fall with the general market but not as much and for not nearly as long. Then they are likely to blast off and outrun physical by as much as five times. My strategy is formed by the realization and acceptance that I am not an expert in these things, nor will I aspire to watch on an hourly or daily basis. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Just not my thing.

    That, and they (stocks) are very liquid. No drive, no negotiation, no premium. Just a click or broker phone call away buys and sells. Granted, I do wish I'd clicked or called to sell a few of mine in April. Hindsight 20/20 and crystal ball and all.

    Hopefully we've seen the worst of the mining share pillage.

    Stay thirsty my friends.

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  127. @berkshire

    I'm not sure what the significance of the silver inventory is. I really don't. I would suspect that the majority of people on this board are more qualified to opine on that than I.

    I for one don't know if this is the end of the line for the "experiment" or just another cycle. We will need more cards to come out of the deck for me to jump into the end of life as we know it camp. I have bought some canned food but I fully expect to never eat it. I try to put myslef in the odds on position. As such, my money is on this being a cycle that will continue to run for some time. Gold and Silver are going much much higher. Betting on the "end" is long odds as it only happens once. There are many cycles, so that's where my mind is (but I still have food/water/etc insurance).

    Some say heresy or normalcy bias. I say prepare but play if you have the means.

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  128. RE: Bernanke's speech tomorrow - please see my two posts above (WAY ABOVE) regarding the Feds decision to mandate that banks need to increase their currency reserves:

    What this means in PLAIN ENGLISH = retraction of liquidity, reduction in lendable monies SOLID PUSH DOWNWARD ON MARKETS and a UPWARD ON THE DOLLAR/POSX - banks lend multiple dollars for every dollar they hold (fractional reserve lending).

    I heard this on CNBC WORLD - who knows if it's more CN-BS but it totally makes sense from a 'EE crush the markets and then get whatever you want over on the people prospective"

    If this IS the announcement tomorrow - I view it as VERY BAD!!!

    Don't get me wrong - don't flame me for repeating what I heard on CNBS

    But do consider that the power of the Fed is ENORMOUS - another engineered credit crisis would be fantastic for buying PM's cheap, but will totally suck if your holding large amounts of Numismatic coins that you can't be nimble with in a quick sell and buy back lower scenario.
    (like me)

    ANYBODY that know about this stuff please way in?

    Turd???

    ReplyDelete
  129. I played a lot with miners in the late 90's, finally gave it up pretty much for all the reasons Level Headed mentioned, and then some. Right around Turd's Bottom in January I decided to give it another go. Looked pretty good in Feb-March, but it's been stinko since, and I've pretty much decided I was right the first time.

    I don't plan on dumping them overnight or anything, but I've decided to be a steady and relentless seller of them from now on. I should have them whittled down to a very very short list by year end, if not sooner. In the meantime I'll be hedging the lot with varying amounts of DUST (2X short miner ETF) as market conditions warrant.

    Overall, I'm probably about even on my 2010 miner experience. But gold and silver are up 10%-20% ish, so it's the opportunity cost that is pissing me off.

    10 years ago I used to tell people, "Gold is a wonderful thing, but gold mining is a lousy business". Like I said, I was right the first time.

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  130. My thoughts based on gut feeling at the moment:

    The dollar could trade as high as 7480 then trade down to 7240 area.

    Gold: 1539 support with near term target 1580s. If the plug gets pulled, could trade all the way down to 1340 area

    Silver: looks tired to me. 36.20 support maybe get a 3 day pop to 38.50. High probability of sell of this month back to 32 or lower.

    Miners: The only thing that has kept me from bleeding profusely is being short 2 silver miners against my gold miner NGD.

    Equity mkts look like SOS.

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  131. @Larry

    I wish you well and all other who own miners well. I also respect you to no end if you can do better in the miners than the metals thgemselves. I'm sure there's an edge there somewhere but I wouldn't be able to make it. I find it arbitrary, frustrating, and scary.

    For me, it's too many moving parts. This is me: Unless I was sitting on a very large gain in a stock (not talking miners) I wouldn't sit through earnings reports. I don't like coin flips. I think they are for people who don't have an edge trading. Miners feel like any other stock to me, coin flips and news galore. Gold and Silver (without the 10 more layers of complication) is all the challenge I need.

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  132. Of course, I meant my "2011 miner experience"

    Time flies when you're having fun, right?

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  133. Turd, while I'm banging out a comment you touched on two subjects that I considered today. Just touched on one. Started to write a bit on the recent Armstrong thing yesterday but decided there were too many other more important things for people to consider than my take on MA.

    In short: Armstrong is brilliant. Maybe a genius. He knows his history. He knows gold and to a lesser degree, silver. He has many followers. He got out of prison as mysteriously as he went in. He's changed his tune since being released. His TA software and methodology and view of the complexities of the world (today, not Rome) is now how effective? His new gold and silver projections don't jibe with his old ones. Sinclair doesn't buy his timing but is too kind and gentlemanly to say in so many words... IMO.

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  134. @221500dc-8c41-11e0-9006-000bcdca4d7a

    sorry man... its Piece Of Sh*t X / POSX = USDollar Index

    WTI = Crude

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  135. @atlee
    Since we're "opening the kimono", here is my underwear:

    There will be no Summer Doldrums in silver; there will be no double top in gold (if so it's days to a week in duration). We're going much higher and faster than most expect.

    The good thing is we get to find out before too long.

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  136. Atlee,

    Your spread worked like a champ today.

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  137. @Larry
    Are you saying you think Armstrong has changed his analysis to get a pass out of jail?

    ReplyDelete
  138. miners tend to outperform only in the last phase of the bull market right?

    gold and silver just give me the "lethargic i wanna roll over" feeling. either way not comfortable going long on margin at the moment

    ReplyDelete
  139. This is a Hoot
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/273466-4-reasons-the-u-s-will-never-return-to-a-gold-or-silver-standard

    ReplyDelete
  140. @Tesla

    If they do raise reserve req's, imo QE3's a lock. Why? Because the only reason I can think to do that would be to counteract the inflationary effect of more QE. As in, more QE is coming.

    Raising reserve req's is intended to decrease the money supply, to control inflation. It would affect the POSX positively. The thing is, raising req's impacts the Fed's other mandate, full employment. They can't control inflation without aggravating the jobs outlook.

    Considering their dual mandate, to get us out of a recession the Fed should get inflation under control before even thinking about employment. They've been doing the exact opposite.

    Raising req's *could* be a sign that the Bernak has seen the light and is ready to drink his medicine. (deflation) I doubt it. I could be wrong, but imo if he does raise 'em he's laying the groundwork for QE∞.

    I'm sure the markets will react, but it won't be as bad a reaction as a "No more QE" announcement would cause.

    ReplyDelete
  141. The way I see it, physical is real wealth, paper PM derivatives like SLV are trading vehicles to build wealth, and mining shares are INVESTMENTS that could also become real wealth in a few years.

    I am in agreement with both Turd and Larry. Decide on a few good miners and accumulate their shares at every opportunity. I don't try to trade them in the near term. In the long run at least some of them will pay off, and very well I think. In the near term, I don't even look at the values of my mining shares. I don't care what they are worth today or next month. Well, actually I do because the longer they stay cheap, the more I can buy.

    I have had a couple of good options plays on miners, but I've had some real bad ones too, and I think there are too many variables in the valuation right now. When the PM ETF's are no longer viable, however, I think then mining share options will become very a good way to trade.

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  142. thanks to all who chimed in on the spreadsheet question I posted earlier ... I copied all responses and will work with those suggestions to see what works for me .... thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  143. LevelHeaded - I'm not going to take that leap or make that accusation... because I don't know. But following along and seeing what I see, I wouldn't discount that possibility and, since he's a very public figure that makes bold prognostications about things I care about, I have to posit the opine.

    I've posted comments on this several times before here. The first right after he was released and came out with a report that was so strange, different and in ways contradictory to the work he did inside the cage.

    WTFK's?

    ReplyDelete
  144. I chickened out of the gold Comex position I added earlier today on the "dip". I'm thinking I'll be able to buy it back lower later tonight. We'll see. I'm still long, just not as long.

    Ver: reaftser. (Used to be. Big time. Not anymore.)

    2nd ver: tokeria. (no joke.)

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  145. hey Tyler,
    You signed up to
    https://www.bitcoinmarket.com/market/members/view/?market_memberID=5700
    I saw your alias over there:)
    Coul dyou invite me to that platform.
    that would be grand.
    Thanks in advance !
    Latcho AKA Stijn De Ryck

    ReplyDelete
  146. Turd

    Are you thinking that crude has a strong upside potential in the near term? How will tomorrow's FEDSPIN effect that?

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  147. I think only the addictive gambler would stake a wager on a market that is fixed against him/her.

    Why not keep the cash for the day when commodities and real estate are dirt-cheap?

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  148. @UpToFreedom

    Thanks very much for your reply - this has been confounding me.

    Here's what I am concerned about: I don't believe that choosing one direction or the other is so much the right now right here. I think, as many of us do, that the POINT IS instability/volatility even fear for the short term. (and then QEoo or whatever the end game)

    Right now there is SUBSTANTIAL political pressure building up in opposing directions regarding the current monetary policy and the correct solution for the administration, Fed, etc to play. The tea party wants to potentially abolish the FED - Ron Paul is the Hammer! But he's not the only one, and the people are strong on this.

    TPTB and want to continue to be and are in a position to do pretty much ANYTHING they like except- we can stand in their way (the tea party, the republicans, we the people) we are going to raise hell - damaging the possibility of second term, renewal of the FED 100 year charter... etc...
    This is way scary to the Democratic party - they will cooperate no?

    If there were NO OPPOSITION to QEoo or FED forever then
    its worth whatever power they weild to hammer us into submission.

    The force it down our throat method is unnecessary - instead shake us up, make us fear the collapse of our markets, 401ks, SS, MEDC, etc and after a good scary shock and awe crisis ...renew QE, The fed charter and 'who cares who wins the white house' the Fed still controls the money/ therefore everything. we the people will do anything to return to normalcy...



    (IMHO the government should issue it's own debt free money and control its supply - Gold ? isn't gold more of an international currency in that no single government can control its supply? thats another conversation though)

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  149. @MrHaylard

    Silly man - the market is fixed FOR us NOT against us.
    When the fix comes off THEN the price of metals becomes so high that NO ONE can afford them. Your paper money is fixed AGAINST you - get RID of it ...look at the 1, 2, 5 year charts man!

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  150. Tesla,
    When/how will the fix come off?

    ReplyDelete
  151. I was searching for a quote about monkey traders in a jungle village bidding up monkey prices, shafting the villagers and disappearing, and found not the one I originally read, but a golden oldie from last July (when TF was still a 'mere' commenter on ZH). As unum mountaineer said, it's deja vu all over again.

    The story about the monkeys (as re-told by JR), as well as the OP by Mike Krieger are both worth a read:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-major-inflection-point-upon-us#comment-483859

    "Also, remember that if the authorities are about to lose control of the precious metals and oil market the best thing for them to do would be to start a conflict so the rise can be blamed on that. If you haven’t learned that Washington D.C is not to be trusted by now I do not know what it will take." - M. Krieger, July 2010

    ReplyDelete
  152. Prophecies and predictions in approximate order of likelihood of occurring:

    Mt. Vesuvius erupts.
    OJ is released and finds the real killer.
    Israel and the Arab states form METO (patterned after NATO) and pledge to support one another with military force if necessary against all aggression.
    A white man wins the Olympic 100 meter dash.
    JC returns.
    The Beatles get back together.
    Congress balances the budget and repeals the income tax.
    All members pledge a 90% paycut, refuse PAC money and voluntarily impose serving 1 term.
    The Comex defaults and silver is priced at its true economic value.

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  153. @bbdgoco

    ROTFLMAO. Good one. Thoroughly disagree, but good one. Just a few nitpicky details:
    Etna just blew (OK, rumbled) -- can Vesuvius be far behind?
    OJ's in jail?

    You could add:
    the Treasury reclaims control of monetary policy, dissolving the FRB.
    Ft. Knox audit.
    Electoral college abolished, instituting direct popular vote.

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  154. Tesla:

    The other way to look at increasing bank reserves is that the Fed is forcing the banks to come into the treasuries market and make up for the shortfall after QE2 and foreign buyers exit. I think treasuries get counted towards reserves. Check out Rickards' interview on King World News:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/4_Jim_Rickards.html

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  155. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  156. @D

    Hope your right D!
    I like that scenario way better =]

    ReplyDelete
  157. @Tesla,

    Tightening of reserves will put pressure on risk markets, but it will not affect loans.

    The banks took the bailout money and put it on reserve; they never loaned it out!

    Recall the main street's biggest economic problem has been that Fed banks took money for free, bought treasuries and kept them on reserve (at 1-3% return), then leveraged against those AAA treasuries 15-25X to bid up risky assets in markets - no loans.

    See Graph: Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions (EXCRESNS)"

    Until the excess reserves DROP from their already CRAZY-RIDICULOUS level, no impact to loans (or the economy).

    A major drop in excess reserves would signal the money moving into economic circulation, most likely via loans. But you can't reduce what's not happening.

    But, the reserve tightening COULD affect risk assets. Down they might go.

    Now, let's consider what this really means. The "Excess" reserves are really nothing of the sort. Why? Because the bank's assets are marked at fraudulently high fictional prices instead of market prices (remember taht pesky accounting rule "mark to market?").

    If the big banks mark assets to market, 10X as much reserves won't matter: all insolvent.

    But... you didn't ask that... :-)

    Down until QE3 announced or other free money, risk on money source returns.

    - Jim M.

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  158. Tesla,

    my question was directed to "the fix", as you described it. I assume you meant that the fix was the documented manipulation of gold and silver futures and spot prices by the bullion banks.

    Given that no authority has ever acted to stop these manipulative actions, why would they ever stop?

    Indeed, why would the bullion banks, who are not subject to mark-to-market accounting, and are too big to fail, not ramp up their activities to stop and then reverse the gradual multi-year rises of gold and silver prices?

    ReplyDelete
  159. That was an insanely stupid article for the sheeple to read so they don't buy any PMs. A joke at every point, not even one being correct.

    By the way WTI crude is a future and is not a stock. You can only trade it or options on it in the futures market.

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  160. JIM

    Thanks - I really appreciate that piece of the puzzle.
    I think that my concerns about a continued stock market sell off are then partially founded, but based on a completely different mechanism than I was trying to wrap my head around.

    I still believe that unsettling us into submission is the overall goal of the current FED/ADMIN. I can now start worrying about it in a different light though - cool!
    LOL
    I think this stuff is meant to be confusing...
    But you completely answered my question - awesome!

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  161. @Tesla

    I think you are correct. But they don't really care if 5% of us figure it out, so long as none of us is as effective at stirring up sh1t as MLK or some of the others back in the day.

    Remember CoIntelOps? Counter Intelligence Ops? Exposed back in 70's... idea was to eliminate risk of dissent by minimizing or eliminating charasmatic leaders that spoke against TPTB. Deep Throat guy got a couple of years in jail for his part in it.

    Smoke and mirrors everywhere. Your north star is the Fed keeping the super-rich in power, in control, and super-rich.

    word ver: arman - This is one character short of my middle name. Weird.

    - Jim M.

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  162. @TurdleGG

    I totally answered the opposite question/fix then.
    I see where your right absolutely - but I'm one of those people that believes EVENTUALLY the current system will collapse - until then its a gradual melt higher with gut wrenching shakeouts along the way. If wrong I'v traded virtually all of my paper money for Gold/Silver and the tools of my trade. (although I started when silver was 6 and gold was 400 - so I'm kinda bullish towards the future possibility of higher prices before my retirement =)

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  163. Turd is right so far about 74 on POSX

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  164. Comment regarding loss of freedoms... heard two items today, both typical and disturbing in that they bring the sh1t home for me.

    EVENT #1
    Guy I work with lives in a house in a suburb neighborhood. Last week, local police busted down his door and searched one specific room, then the entire house, no warrant. Seems they used an infrared heat sensor to spot a very hot wall on the street side of the house. Thought he was growing pot with heat lamps. Nope - computers. No apology, no explanation, no repair or compensation for the door. I feel so much safer now. I think he's pissed.

    EVENT #2
    Boss flew to Vegas last Friday. Never pulls his wallet out of his pocket. Gets picked and goes through the full-body scan. Agent pulls him aside, says step on these foot prints, he does. Before he's even quit wiggling, agent frisks his junk. Pisses boss off, and he's not easy to piss off. Boss asks WTF. "You got metal on the scanner." Boss says, "not in my junk, I don't. Wallet?" Agent gives him a ration for not removing wallet. I'll skip that part, not so interesting. Agent can't find the metal, starts acting funny. Boss finally tells him, you might want to check my knee. Just got a partial replacement. "Is that right? Why didn't you speak up?" Boss says, "Sorry, had a little trouble staying calm after you tried to rub me off." Oops, now he's in trouble.

    Boss eventually got out of it, but he was pissed. Boss has been telling me I'm paranoid about the sh1t going down. So, I smiled and asked him.... wait for it.... you're SO gonna love it..... "But don't you feel safer now?" He said, "No." I believe him.

    - Jim M.

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  165. @Jim

    @TurdleGG

    Thanks to you both - plenty to think about.

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  166. Tesla,
    OK. We are on the same page. I'm just nervous about how long we have to wait for the EVENTUALLY moment to arrive. With nobody in a position of power actually making any moves against the manipulators, I fear that the wait will be longer than we all hope for.

    p.s. word verification = squidg (Squid Goldman?)

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  167. By the way, for those watching the spot silver prices right now, that >10c drop 10 minutes ago happened at exactly the same time as AUD was falling against USD and JPY following the RBA's decision to not raise interest rates. Unfortunately, it's a reminder that silver is, at least for now, in the "risk asset" category. Gold, on the other hand, hardly blinked.

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  168. So now we have gold up for the day and silver down. That's unusual.

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  169. I'm thinking 'Bastille Day' for the Bilderbergers =b

    Chart isn't particularly bullish tonight - (silver) - its trying to be the inverse mirror of Gold... Gold tests resistance at same time Silver tests support...
    Bitter Sweet - but really just Bitter

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  170. Turd is still right - and even more so - about 74 on POSX. EUR up 0.4% today. Gold and silver well off intra-day lows in Asian trade.

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  171. Buckle up for the roller coaster. Please keep your arms and legs inside at all times ... or not.

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  172. @Titus --- yeehaw. Let's hope there's a bit of a rise before the next plunge -- and it is Happy Tuesday after all...

    BTW - if there's anyone interested in Peru, there is an interesting inside/outside perspective here:

    http://robertmixblog.blogspot.com/

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  173. POSX touching some new 30-day lows here.

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  174. Good Morning / Evening..

    Silver not holding over 37 for any reasonable length of time..

    Still higher than we were this time yesterday.. so here's hoping.

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  175. Damn. I think Turd was really right about crude. I think $98.50 was a killer deal. Oh, well.

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  176. Silver is mostly just keeping up with the EUR.USD uptrend, can't say I'm particularly convinced by this move. Once the POSX moves up a little, and silver can find a firm bottom at either about 37.02 (wishful thinking) or 36.89 (more likely) things might lighten up a bit, and it can start moving through 37.42. Otherwise we'll see a retest of 36.35 first.

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  177. @Titus...

    Looking better, time will tell...

    Was tempted by crude at 98.50 but put off cos of the OPEC meeting today, expecting to up production to bring the price down...

    Expecting a sharpish drop today hopefully buy on that dip.

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  178. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  179. Hey Titus, whats your best guess on raid/no raid for the london witching hour coming up? I say we see a raid uhmmm... 25 cents down. just a guess of course.

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  180. Hi SilverBleve.

    Short term (week or so) I'm bullish on silver, I just don't believe it will last... I wish it would, it just keeps getting smacked down..

    I'm inclined to go with the popular concenus of a spurt up then a long dragged out down to low 30's maybe lower, then later in the year a nice run up..





    As always, I have no science, charting, cyclical or otherwise knowledge, just guessing and hunches from what I've read.. as always, I hope it just keeps going up!

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  181. I'm wondering if this is Hong Kong market pushing the price..? they'll close in 15min, typically a slight drop just after that..

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  182. ncot I hear ya. I'm just guessing too. July is traditionally a low of the year in both gold and silver. August is the beginning of the Indian wedding season, and this year we will have the hong kong exchange start trading silver futures, which should be a good rally.

    Also looking forward to MA's June 13th predictions and to see what comes of it, good or bad we will have a front row view.

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  183. Yeh, I'm a little concerned about that June 13th thing.. but the way people are talking about it, makes him sound like that preacher that was going on about Rapture and the end of the world!

    I do hope to be out (preferably in profit) by then too!

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  184. yes nice spike there while i was typing to 37.22 in silver. I'm fascinated by the psychological aspect of the round numbers and %10 above and below them. titus I know you are watching, last chance to guess yea/nay on london witching hour raid:)

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  185. If you're inclined to think that silver is running out of steam, smart money would start paring positions at each upside resistance point, and as we pass through (if we do) setting previous resistance as a stop/loss. This is if you're trading. Long/strong need not be concerned except for looking at next buying opportunity.

    Next major resistance is 37.50. My personal feeling is that it would be a mistake to hold out 100% for 38.50 before offloading. We've all seen how fast $1-$3 can come off silver to the downside. 37.79 can quickly become 34.79, know what I'm sayin'?

    I remain short for the season. Will add to short at upper resistance, in small measures. And I'll happily take the fiat loss on the paper if we break through 42 and enter a new paradigm :)

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  186. interesting / worrying thing..

    that spike we just had to 37.24, looks exactly the same as the one we had yesterday but a few hours later.. and that took us down to 36.45 eventually....

    http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

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  187. I don't take the June 13th thing to be doomsday, just the beginning of a new trend, could be good or bad, its interesting that he hopes for a low in gold that day and that would actually indicate a multi year bull in gold. His style is so cryptic its hard to assign it even the moniker of a 'prediction' but interesting reading for sure.

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  188. yes, ncot I see what you mean. Maybe it is the HFT machines, doing the same pattern but varying the time of day the pattern begins? I was thinking we we just getting our daily london teatime raid.

    pailin who is that in your avatar?

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  189. @SilverBleve
    Soros. I have a sense of humor :)

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  190. One more thing for long traders looking for exits - all RSI under 8hrs are looking overbought, particularly 1hr and 2hr. Would seem to indicate ripeness for smackdown. But these things can loft up on a push and short cover stops, so 37.50-38 isn't out of the cards today. Much higher than that, today, would be a pretty big sell signal unless there was some news that changes people with money perceptions.

    Looking a little further out, the 8hr is so-so and the daily only a little better. Weekly and monthly look "hold" to me, neither buy nor sell, but with bias to downside.

    I keep looking at the RSI pattern on the longer periods and comparing the shape to 2008, too much similarity for me to be bullish. There's every appearance (in the shape) to silver only being halfway through the down move from 50 to as low as 22-25. That would match approximately the % decline top/bottom in 2008 also. This is why I'm hedged.

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  191. Pailin nice! Im impressed you have the guts to go short. It seems that is where the money is and has been for a long time. Looks like the london raid is going as planned, right on schedule.

    I cant do it myself, afraid of being caught in a upswing.

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  192. @SilverBleve
    It's more a covered short against my non-trading core PSLV and physical. I've also got cash on the sidelines -in hand- for deflation bank liquidity crisis or to buy more physical on deep dips. The short is only a 1/3 hedge, so I'm not at risk of blowing up the acct unless we test XAG 65 (seriously). I'd close the short long before then anyway. The only question at this point is do I increase that position at higher levels? Probably, but I'm being very careful on that. I think I need to see if silver can get past 38.80 before looking at adding to short.

    I can't really lose either way, as I have a straddle. Right now I'm in the middle, not really gaining or losing as they net against each other. I need a decisive move to 30ish or 40ish for the payoffs to begin.

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  193. What do you call the opposite of a waterfall? Right this minute, look at netdania chart for silver ... bump bump bump up!

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