What I Think

Please keep in mind and never forget that The Turd is just a regular guy. I'm not some former working Wall Street stiff with an agenda. I'm not a paid agent of disinformation. I'm not trying to sell a newsletter or anything else for that matter. I'm just a dope with a MacBook. I have a few very strong beliefs about the future of the American and world economies and I seem to have an ability to forecast price movements in gold and silver.

Longtime turdite, TurdleGG, wrote me in the very early days of this blog. His advice was: "If you're going to do this, don't hold back. The world is full of obfuscating investment analysts and it doesn't need another one. Give it to us straight. Tell us what you think. It is up to us, the readers, to decide its merit." With that terrific advice in tow, we set out on this journey. Perhaps because of the honesty, this site has grown exponentially. The just-completed month of May (our sixth full month in existence) saw the site attract 2,066,434 pageviews, placing it easily within the top 10 busiest precious metals websites in the world. In light of this, it would be quite simple now to go back on my pledge to Turdle but I won't. I will continue to make predictions such as "Turd's Bottom" and "Turd's #2" because it's what I believe. Not what I know, no one can know the future, but what I believe to be true. Take or leave it. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. Do not ever rely simply upon this blog and my opinions. Ask Mrs F and she'll tell you that I'm more likely to be wrong than right.

With that said, here is what I have come to believe: The Comex is broken and failing. The evidence is circumstantial and I can't prove anything to you. However, after fully considering facts (Scotia et al) and contemplating the recent market action and the increasingly heavy hand of C/C/C manipulation, my experience tells me that the end is drawing near for the Comex as a reliable price discovery and metals delivery vehicle. Very near. Maybe not in July but, with each subsequent "delivery" month, the likelihood of Comex default will increase.

As a precious metals investor, this seminal event has major implications for you. First and foremost, we are about to discover whether a Comex failure will be bullish or bearish for paper silver contracts. This will no longer be an academic exercise. We will see this play out in real time. I fully expect the price gap between paper and physical to widen significantly. Investors will finally take notice that paper silver is indeed just that, and, in the end, there will be a mass awakening to the true availability of physical silver. At once, it will dawn upon the investment community that the amount of silver available for investment and insurance purposes is much, much less than previously thought. Your paper futures contract or your paper ETF shares will be worth less or worthless while your physical coins and bars will skyrocket in price.

Additionally, I'm spending a lot of time contemplating how these events will effect my forecasted "roadmap" for the rest of this year. As you know, my method of prediction relies heavily upon unchanging fundamentals and repeating cycles. A collapsing Comex certainly alters the fundamentals and, since its never happened before, there are no cycles that can repeat. For now, I still expect $42-44 silver before the end of this month. From there, we'll have to wait and see how the July delivery process plays out.

In conclusion, we are very near the point where you need to begin moving out of all paper and synthetic silver. The common shares of miners, particularly those with unhedged books, will do extremely well. Your physical stack of ASEs, Maples and bars will rapidly appreciate in value. However, paper and synthetic silver will be seen as dubious, perhaps even fraudulent, investments. At the end, you do not want to be the "greatest fool".

One of the more bizarre parts of this whole experience has been my sudden ability to correspond with very well respected individuals within the precious metals community. I've learned and confirmed a lot so, in the coming days, we'll discuss the timing of the Comex collapse as well as other "big picture" revelations I've had. The world is going to be changing rapidly over the next 24 months and those who prepare will survive and even flourish. Those with buried heads are in for some very big surprises.