Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Staying Grounded

Here's the only thing that really matters today:
In the midst of all the silliness, a friendly postal carrier stopped by to deliver a tube of these lovely Maple Leafs. A gentle reminder that, even though the day-to-day volatility can be crazy, I know I'm doing the right thing by stacking some precious metal. The Truth will one day prevail and I'm going to be awfully glad that I took my own advice and prepared.

Today was another classic day of market schizophrenia.
Economy Bad: Sell stocks, crude, copper and grains.
Bad Economy Means More QE: Buy bonds and gold.
Rest assured, just as quickly as WOPR sold stocks today, WOPR will buy them back tomorrow. In fact, here's an ES chart to guide you:
WOPR will also turn around and buy back the copper it sold today, the crude and the grains. Just be patient.

Silver is still an odd duck, though. As you know, it didn't tag along with gold today. Or did it? From a different perspective, since late Thursday, gold has rallied from 1515 to high today of 1551. That's 2.38%. Over the same time period, silver has moved from a low of 36.26 to a high today of 38.50. That's  6.18%! So don't dismay, silver has good buying support from 37.50-60. Someone or something seems to want to keep it below $39 but they won't win. As we enter June with the critical "delivery" month of July on the horizon, silver will continue to find a bid. Of that you can be confident.

Gold is what intrigues me the most here, though. Did you realize that today's Comex close was the third highest ever? The only higher closes are $1557.70 and $1558.40 on 4/29 and 5/2. That's it. Today is ranked #3 on the all-time list! Something tells me you haven't heard that mentioned on CNBS. At any rate, on the chart below you can begin to clearly see why I expect such tough sledding between 1550 and 1560. Let's just wait and see what the end of this week brings. Either the BLSBS will confirm ADP and gold will soar through 1560 and attempt to make an alltime closing high or MOPE will allow for the media shills to SPIN the number into something gold-negative. I guess what I'm saying is: No sense buying more here. The upside is capped for now. Let's wait to see how things look on Friday at around 9:00 am EDT.

Again, today was just another day in the crazy world of investing and preparation. Keep the faith, relax and be happy. Have a great evening! TF

p.s. It just dawned on me that I should have mentioned crude. I wouldn't want anyone to think I'm hiding from it. Obviously, today's move caught me by surprise, which is certainly going to happen from time to time. Eight hours ago, the chart looked like 104-05 was coming today. Now, I'll just be happy to see it stay above $100. Yikes! It could decline further but the upper 90s still look to provide excellent support so I'd be looking to be a buyer somewhere around $98, if it reaches down that far.

4:10 EDT UPDATE:
The Criminal Evil Empire has chosen to once again raid the metals on the afterhours, thinly-traded Globex. Using a weakening equity market as cover, The Cartel sent out the monkeys and successfully clipped $1.20 off of the price of silver in just 13 minutes. They even managed to turn gold negative for a few minutes, effectively wiping out all $16 of hard-fought pit gains. Fuckers. It reminds me of this now-famous rant:
Our "markets" are a sham and a farce. Endlessly manipulated by the Fed's primary dealers to create the illusion of a sound dollar and a stable economy. 
In the end, re-read the top of this post. Keep stacking physical metal. It is your only insurance against the thievery and destruction brought about by our Monetary Masters.

177 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Great thoughts as ever Turd.

    I bought some more physical gold at 1530 today (3% over the spot) as I had money to invest and know long term it makes sense. My personal ratio in terms of oz is still 6:1 silver to Gold but with the UK £ only going one way I am investing every month to try and preserve some of my hard worked cash!

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  3. humahuaca

    dont you feel like there is more upside for dollar short term - 1 to 3 months ? therefore buying CAD later

    would you also buy AUD/SEK ?

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  4. U GUYS, U GUYS, still holding the wrong metal

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  5. Slow and steady wins the race ... Didn't a "turdle" discover that?

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  6. I'm heading up to Gainesville Coins right now to pick up a roll of 20 silver Buffs and the (3) 10ounce bars I trading some Bernankies for almost 3 weeks ago! They finally called me today, so off I'll go. Can't wait to add the new gear to my stash!

    While I'm there I think I'll trade in about 4000 more Bernankies as well. I'm going to order more silver Buffs, but wanted to get another oz of gold.

    Their least expensive 1oz looks like the Pamp Suisse bar at 1567. Next is either the 2011 Ausie Kangaroo at 1580 or the 2010 Canadian Maple Leaf at 1580.

    Is it best just to get the cheapest gold they have which is a bar, or is it better for down the road to have gold minted in a coin?

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  7. Turd - hitting $1551 today, especially given the rest of May, was pretttty damn close to "June $1600" if you ask me, especially given all the talk on TV about it going back to $1300.

    I've been happy to let my physical sit and ride DGP up without the volatility of AGQ.

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  8. Maples for ever!)
    37,6 touched. sales sales sales

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  9. grabbed another 80 phillies @ 29.78 euro
    http://www.gold.de/preisvergleich,3,Wiener-Philharmoniker.html

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  10. Thanks, Fortin. $1578 on 5/2/11 was even closer. Considering gold closed at $1346 on January 21, when I made the post, coming within $22 is pretty fricking good. Those who don't like it can kiss my hairy batooty.
    On June 10, they'll get their chance ;)

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  11. Yep, physical is the way to go. Still trying to play the Casino though making some paper profits. Going mighty slow though lately.

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  12. Great post Turd!

    I finally had a chance to check the silver chart again and man, it sure does look like SOMEBODY is trying to lay the smack down on silver right now on the Globex. Wowee... I wouldn't have the stomach to trade this stuff. Will keep stacking physical.

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  13. Silver massacre in progress......hehehe......bring it down for us hyenas......we like bluelight specials.

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  14. Wow, I smell bullshit as well. Another smackdown.

    OI still low as of yesterday, let's hope they cover even more of their shorts here at this level.

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  15. Holy shinto! Massive raid going on now.

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  16. gotta be another margin hike, It's their only weapon.

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  17. Vickaty, if that is the case it will pop back up in under two hours! :)

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  18. Btw, try to chart that, you TA's. Bet most of you got taken to the cleaners again.

    You can only stay long in physical or in paper with very little leverage. No other way to play silver.

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  19. You and me both Turd. At least we know who is doing it, pretty damn limited crowd that has that kind of firepower.... Almost a straight a$$ drop right there.

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  20. Blythe is riping our ass with no mercy whatsoever...

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  21. this looks like birthday gift... :)

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  22. Hi all, first time, long time.

    Wow, 36.40. Unbelievable yet totally believable at the same time. What a farce.

    Time to buy more.

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  23. Turd,in my amateur opinion I think its time to get out of calls and into puts.

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  24. Really this is nothing more than the Cartel seizing the opportunity to punish the metals on the Globex under the cover of a steep selloff in stocks.
    The criminal manipulation continues.

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  25. Very impressive takedown. Fast and efficient. My hats off to them.

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  26. @Save_America1st,

    I, too, would be interested in the collective wisdom of the forum community re: the best form of physical gold to store for the future. Recently I bought a Mexican gold 50 peso Centenario coin, and got it for 1.3% over spot. But someone here pointed out that it may be harder to sell than say, a gold eagle or kruggerand.

    Anyone care to add their experience here?

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  27. Hmmm, let's see.
    Let gold rise, purposely pin down silver at the same time. Pull the bids on gold, pull the bids on silver. Waterfall decline. Cover shorts silver. Let's see what happens over night.

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  28. Just love seeing waterfalls. Who needs to vacation when we can watch this multiple times each day.

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  29. They are going after gold two. It's like Turd mentioned at one point I think, they paint a double top on Gold and then monkey hammer the #$ck outta gold and silver to drive it as far down as they possibly can.

    Complete bullsh!t. Thanks for protecting us from this CFTC! Helluva job your doing their Gensler... worthless bastards.

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  30. Thank goodness for the margin increases to reduce volatility. LOL.

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  31. These mothers are going to coil and snap back hard. (I hope)

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  32. I have to admit that on days like today it's hard not to despair that there will never be any end to this. The establishment will never prosecute the manipulation crimes that are going on, their ability to initiate smashdowns seems undiminished and the possibility of a comex default seems like a far away promise.

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  33. vickaty,

    yep. As you surely all will have observed, over the last week, even despite silver's rise, OI has stayed the same, around 120k, which is the very low for the year (at Turd's bottom at the end of January around 26,5 we were at 123k). I wouldn't be surprised at all if tomorrow's number would come out still lower.

    Those guys know we'll have a waterfall decline in the dollar and an epic silver liftoff coming towards us sometime this year, and they need to shake out those Managed Money longs to be able to close out their shorts before that happens.

    They're doing a very good job so far.

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  34. Cashing in my chips, maybe I'll return to this table when they switch dealers.

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  35. Ah but the beast in the East loves gold and silver and when the time is right will bury the banksters in their own paper as they cash in for ungodly amounts of metals.

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  36. @ vickaty

    They WILL coil and snap back hard, the only question is when. Can you imagine the PMs being allowed to trade freely without undue influence? Gold over $1600 in 30 minutes and Ag over $40 in the same time frame.

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  37. Btw, so far it again seems like 36$ IS the magic number.

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  38. wtf?
    I went to pick up the boy at school, came back 15 minutes later and silver is getting slammed.

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  39. Further, I think people forget silver is up 22% for the year and is doubled in a year. Patience.

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  40. =/ So I guess we can throw trinity B in the trash now, since she didnt give us a warning about this one.

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  41. I guess cyclicalmarketanalysis guy deserves some credit

    thumbs up, got spy top almost 100 percent

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  42. This is a screaming buy down here. Lets not focus on the criminality of of it. Lets look for the opportunity. I made some stupid mistakes today but we will get them tomorrow.

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  43. @ Atlee

    "Screaming buy"

    Yet they've got me too afraid to pull the trigger. I guess they've accomplished their goal (at least in my case - and I suspect many others)

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  44. @Fred:
    exactly and well said.

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  45. Was there a margin hike again?
    and if so, to what mailinglist of the comex/cftc do I need to subscribe to in order to receive the notification? I've been subscribed to all of their comm lists.

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  46. Ok guys... I'm totally f...ed... but no panic!!! right turd?

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  47. It's fugly out there. Keep cash through the summer, this might only be the beginning.

    Turd, you're waging a brave battle against a many-headed monster. We all make our own investment decisions; good luck and thanks for the reading material. :)

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  48. OC15 - Thanks for the reminder!

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  49. The Bernanke post yesterday came true today. Turd put THIS on your site and you can see who posts including where they came from, ip, city state and country, how many visits,lookup IP addresses etc.. DO IT NOW! YOU will be able to find out WHERE they WORK!

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  50. Kinda funny that they lowered margins for ES the day before it got crushed.

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  51. from end of prior thread. Ag 36.72 now...

    Wow, I can see that thanking Blythe for low PM prices really pays off fast. Ag $36.65, yeeeha! Bless her little granite heart.

    Ag 36, oh yeah. Most def time to amble over to bulliondirect.com again.

    Thanks again fiat breath!

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  52. is the new EE pattern a BULL TRAP pattern ?

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  53. My heart was screaming no!!!!, but my head said do it!!!! Instead of buying the 20 Franklins, I bought some June SLV calls at the close. Talk about trying to catch a falling knife. Bleeding just a little already, but I hope tomorrow is a different day. A fool and his money are soon partying?

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  54. @MARAdonna

    RE: Many Headed Monster (the Beast = Bankers Insatiable greed at the expense of the innocent?) Hmmm

    Kinda rings true?

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  55. Atlee on Sherman's March to the Sea?!

    I just hope Goldman Tower, JP Morgue and the Fed are in your path of destruction bro.

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  56. Ok, just bought a crap load of AGQ after hours...if it goes down some so what...by the end of the month we should be back at around the $40 range anyways....

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  57. @ Atlee

    You could be right (and I am hoping you are), but who really knows for sure? I was actually really impressed by the action in the PM's today given the carnage elsewhere...that is, up until 330pm or so when someone decided to flip a switch and obliterate everyone in matter of minutes. What if the first two weeks of June turn out to be like the first two weeks of May? :( This is only a question. If Turd's comments regarding the "painting of a double top" prove to be correct (meaning the recent rally is simply a "calvin"), then we probably have a ways to go from here IMHO.

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  58. Economic Analyst, these cryptic posters are eerily correct far too often

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  59. "Economic Analyst said...
    The Bernanke post yesterday came true today. Turd put THIS on your site and you can see who posts including where they came from, ip, city state and country, how many visits,lookup IP addresses etc.. DO IT NOW! YOU will be able to find out WHERE they WORK!"

    I'd assume they'd go in over proxies, or have deals with the ISPs themselves that will supply them with random IP addresses that will not look suspect. Everything else just would not make sense, and would be way under their level.

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  60. "waffen said...
    Economic Analyst, these cryptic posters are eerily correct far too often"

    Yeah, like Evil, who predicted that the stock market would correct 20% (when it stayed flat) and that the metals would stabilize and move higher (when they got hit).

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  61. Ben Bernanke said...
    I have something special planned for June 1st. You won't want to miss it!
    May 31, 2011 9:57 AM

    -------------
    Yeah thanks so much for the tip, Bennochio...

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  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  63. @Atlee,

    Remember last week when we were trying to be patient and looking for the moment to buy in the $36.50 range...well we are here now..I've loaded the boat!

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  64. Markus,

    Evil just said that his algos suggested that after the metals beatdown there would be a market correction.

    I have yet to see evil right about anything.. Though I would have liked for him to go on record yesterday when he had something "urgent" to say

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  65. @atlee

    Right on, man. I made some errors today also, but at the end I bought until I ran out of ammo. I'll reload tonight and hope I can still get these prices tomorrow.

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  66. I've got about $500 of cash that I think I wil try to buy some Silver Eagles with tomorrow. Not sure if the coin shop will sell it to me, but I am at least going to try. They were darn near out the last time I went in.

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  67. It is worth looking at the one minute silver chart with volume. At 3:37 pm EST, somebody dumped about 1000 contracts to cause the spike down. Perhaps it was far less than that because the volumn no doubt included stop loss selling during that same exact minute.

    That is really not that many contracts and lots of funds or even just one individual could do this.

    My point is to beware of how much leverage you use and not to over-trade. If you use too much leverage, you will give money away to those that manipulate the market.

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  68. I expect silver to go back up to the low to mid $37 range for the next day or so....then perhaps another retest of todays lows? Any thoughts?

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  69. It's time we all start taking advantage of the raids. It looks like the cartel will be very active in the next month.

    Gotta come up with some strategies to not get taken advantage of. The obvious would be to get out after a big run and wait for the raid to come to get back in.

    I'm not sure if i'm smart enough to do any of that successfully, but it's certainly something to think about.

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  70. @ewc58

    Its Civil war (war between the state) week on the History channel. Last night was Grant and Lee. Before that Gettysburg and before than Sherman. I was digging it so thus the changing avatars. Us Grant is Unconditional Surrender Grant

    @ Bullwhip

    Who knows but nothing has changed good or bad and I try to see the opportunity in things rather than dwell on the pain. We have talked about being ready for this crap in the past but I know it is hard to do. I made mistakes today too.

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  71. Sold nothing today, no pain no gain.

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  72. I wish I had been patient or willing to double down and buy the dip, but I just can't take the risk I loaded up on too many things now. Have to let some pan out and I can afford to ride out silver's dip until we come back out on top.

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  73. Golds all time high London AM fix is $1546.50, and the PM fix is $1541. Lets see if they get taken out tomorrow.

    Silver had it's 2nd best monthly close ever yesterday. Today was just another aftermarket raid and nothing else.

    Tune out the noise. BTFD and accumulate.

    Bay of Pigs

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  74. SSK
    I didn't know we had a new thread going, so in case you missed my last reply;

    Eric#1 said...
    SSK,

    Yeah, for your style of trading you need a good US listing and good volume.

    Have you thought about ANV or GRS?

    BRD, CGR, or UXG might work for you too.
    June 1, 2011 4:16 PM

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  75. “Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you’re not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean. I mean plumb, mad-dog mean. ‘Cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live nor win. That’s just the way it is.”

    – Josey Wales – Outlaw Josey Wales

    There is a war underway in this country. The working middle class that built this country from the ground up are being systematically eliminated by a small cabal of super rich powerful elite. The middle class was much like Josey Wales, a peaceful Missouri farmer just working his land trying to make an honest living. Then a band of lawless thugs come along and kill his wife and son and burn down his farmhouse. A man can only take so much before he gets mean and vengeful. The rich and powerful, the corrupt Wall Street bankers, the banker controlled Federal Reserve and the bought off politicians in Washington D.C. have been pillaging the middle class for decades.

    OUTLAW JOSEY WALES – PART FOUR

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  76. Hi,
    First time poster here.

    Just curious, with this latest smack down by the cartel, does the end of June target of 42-44 still hold?

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  77. I actually stayed damn close to even today. DXD & UGL worked for me, plus I was selling a lot of covered calls and puts to wrangle in some extra cash.

    Sometimes you have to count breakeven as a "win". ;)

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  78. Man, step away from the computer and silver is down $2!!!! Glad I'm not holding any silver paper. I added a bit to my gold paper.

    I'm expecting big volatility this month over the "There is no QE3" vs "There is QE3" nonsense. It is just a tool the EE uses to increase volatility and risk. I would not be suprised if there is a big bluff on no QE3 which sends markets all over and people begging the FED to print money.

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  79. In hindsight (isn't it wonderful) that little "greek problem resolved" rally yesterday was a gift from god to sell stocks, currencies, oil and copper.

    I sold my currencies and honestly, felt stupid for doing so (see my post to "ricky" if in doubt), but I am sticking to my gameplan of fading every dip and every rally until the Greek situation plays out.

    Now I just pray for another 'good news out of Europe' day tomorrow to be able to unload my CAD and buy back the SDS I sold today.

    @Petr I answered you in the last thread re waiting to buy CAD. I'm too early and hoping to be able to bail tomorrow, or maybe I have to wait for Friday.

    Now that some horrific expectations for jobs numbers are baked in, we could get a bounce even if the numbers are so so. I will sell my CAD and short more EUR if I get the chance.

    Otherwise I will average down and buy more CAD at 98, that looks like strong resistance to me. Just a short term play.

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  80. Joe Jost - One person could pull this off for sure as silver is a smaller market, but this just happened in gold to didn't it? How many contracts were dumped on Gold to cascade it like that?

    I guess it is possible, but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, then it's probably Blythe.

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  81. Reposting from the previous thread.
    Been a hectic day for me.

    @Dr O

    Not sure the last time July corn same as July wheat. It is rare. Last month May/May traded the same. Not sure this would have happened without the Russian announcement. Would not interpret this as a time to get bullish wheat, due to fact that harvest is underway with the usual selling pressure. However, I would say downside risk is limited.

    Market is trying to get wheat cheap enough relative to corn so it can be substituted in feed rations. Not so sure this happens so much. Look at the the spreads to the deferred months. Commercial elevators want to buy all the wheat they can to store and earn the carry. $1.00 July/Dec, $1.43 July/July. The new VSR causing this.

    All this said, wheat should follow corn if we get a blowoff type trade. Planting progress was 86% yesterday, 9% below average. This means +12 million corn acres unplanted. I don't think we get the 92 million acres planted. Stay tuned to the weather forecasts.

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  82. First time I've had a stop triggered well below my set price. Bastard crooks. Was having best day I've had in weeks too.

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  83. @ ck

    The problem now is that it is impossible to determine where they will set the goal posts going forward. Do they let everyone get comfy and let things run up to new highs before the beatdown? Or perhaps they execute more of a "whack a mole" game plan and drop the hammer each and every time the market firms up thereby scaring everyone away for good? (in which case a head and shoulders formation will be painted on the silver chart - and, yes this would suck big time) In a sense, we have no choice but to play the hand we've got. The problem is that they know what cards we've got...good hand, bad hand...doesn't matter. Today was pure and utter nonsense. That being said, complaining about it ad nauseum (a la Zero Hedge blog) doesn't make anyone any money either.

    Yeah, I know this isn't much of a strategy at all.

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  84. @JNG
    @ Old Navy

    Amen brother.

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  86. Cool Atlee. And inspiring- - ya got me thinking we're just gonna have to insist on the Unconditional Surrender of CRIMEX and the LBMA.

    Re: the War Between The States (fought primarily over the Rights of the States versus the "rights" rapidly accruing to the emerging Federal "state"), the Battle of Spotsylvania: positively horrifying carnage. Even when compared to earlier bloodbaths like Antietam, Gettysburg, and all the rest.

    It was said that the shot and shell coming at the attackers that afternoon at Spotsylvania was so thick and so constant that nobody could understand how ANY attacker could have possibly survived the repeated assaults. Of course, most did not. Here's a synopsis:

    http://www.civilwarhome.com/spotsylvania.htm

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  87. Trash it all you want, monkeys...Eagles are still $45-50 on ebay.

    Sell in May or start to pray. It's June 1st; don't see what the surprise is.

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  88. Some bullsh*t moves in the miners as well today. Check out the flash crash on Minera Andes at around 2pm. From 2.60 to 1.50 in a second. Bullsh*t algo move to trigger stop-losses. What a crock.

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  89. From the sound of things, the time I took trying to warn ya's this morning was wasted. meh...

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  90. This drop really threw me into a noob panic, i sold, then panicked again and bought back in. On the plus side, i put a stop on now - something that i should have done at the beginning.

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  91. So at 3:28 EDT today I posted I was heading up to GVille Coins to pick up some of my long ago ordered gear and buy more silver, maybe an ounce of gold.

    I never saw the beat down coming! By the time I left my place and got to their showroom it was in full-fledged crush!

    Luckily, it was pouring rain all day and so nobody was in the shop to get in my way. Plunked down a little over 3000 Bernankies and picked up 80 more silver Buffs for a tad over 38/oz. GVille's premium on Buffs is now 1.55/oz, so I managed to BTFD almost perfectly!

    Wish I had brought more of Benny's Clown Credits though! At the last minute before I went over there I decided not to bring the other 2000 I had ready to go...I didn't know the EE was conducted a raid at that point.

    But oh well...I picked up 20 Buffs from my previous order. I still have 3 more 10 ounce bars I'm still waiting on from over 2 weeks ago. And now I have another 80 oz's on order. I'm happy as hell for the Wicked Witch's raid.

    If the EE does this shit tomorrow I'll have 3000 more Bennies ready to go.

    Weiner-gate gets all the national media attention by the lame-stream idiots, but this shit the EE does day after day gets nothing, nada, zip, crickets. Whatever...

    That's why we all have the Turd! Thanks for all the work you put in and info you give us to help out the little guys like me Turd. I will be donating to the new site in 3,2,1...go!

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  92. No love at Bullion Direct they are holding the line at $38 on Ag.

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  93. humahuaca

    your comments are very appreciated, thank you

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  94. If anyone remembers as far back as Monday, the mere suggestion that Germany might ease up their demands on Greece sent markets soaring.

    Once again in hindsight it seemed obvious.

    Of course they have to bail Greece out, there is just no way after all this time and effort that they are going to throw up their hands and give up.

    So, just wait a few days and sentiment will turn again.

    Problem is, I am so confused by all the different trading paradigms recently, I have no idea anymore what that (temporary) good news will mean for silver or gold.

    The Euro will go up for a moment though, that's all I know.

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  95. I put bandaids on my gaping wounds, pulled on my big boy pants and bought some more pool silver (I don't have a backyard to bury stuff in ... ;-).

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  96. On a happier note, Yukon juniors. I know
    a stock analyst who made many clients into millionaires with one stock. Atac Resources ATC.
    It went from 8c to $9 in 7 years - a 100 bagger.
    He knows this company top to bottom & inside out.
    He thinks it could be a hundred bagger. Again. Why ?
    They control the creme de la creme of the Yukon,
    the Rackla belt - a Carlin style deposit - within
    the Tintina gold belt which domiciles the other
    Yukon juniors. Their land mass is appx half the
    size of Switzerland, and growing. We might very possibly be talking 100m plus plus ounces, with great drill results already in the bag.Will be a blitzkreig of drilling this summer (40,000m), just being started. Check em out on stockhouse. Check out some of the other shareholders too. If you want some gold ounces cheaper than silver ones for your buck take a look.
    Not for widows or orphans mind you. My other 2 stocks also Yukon - GPD and CGD . No political risk (which is way way more important than people consider),& no permitting issues. Golden Predator GPD not quite as exciting perhaps, but very aggressive management, bees knees
    geos, good/ very good early results, lots more staking going on....and lastly Carlin gold - much more risky but cheap.
    Just look at their Nevada and Yukon claims - right
    in amongst the best of the big boys. My ratio is
    60/30/10. I've looked at hundreds and hundreds of juniors, and if these dont make it....I'll be buying lottery tickets next year instead.

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  97. @ uptofreedom

    until we actually have a forum, most comments just get lost in the noise. I am looking all I can for warnings, but missed yours.. so now I am down 39% on the day. At this rate all of my seed money is going to be gone. hopefully we will see a recovery overnight.

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  98. JimmyTheHand said...

    Joe Jost - One person could pull this off for sure as silver is a smaller market, but this just happened in gold to didn't it? How many contracts were dumped on Gold to cascade it like that?

    I guess it is possible, but if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, then it's probably Blythe.

    --------------------

    It is impossible to know for sure, but to answer your question it appears that gold was not hit at all. At the same minute that silver was hit (3:37 pm), there was only 192 contracts traded. A few minutes later there was a reaction and volume spiked to about 1000 contracts, but it looked like buying to me, not selling. Gold is still hanging tough and behaving very orderly.

    Anyway, you missed my point. It does not matter who caused this, but whether you live to trade another day. If you are complaining, then you must learn from this and reduce your leverage so that you are not a contributor to this type of market manipulation. If your stop was triggered, then you contributed to the market volatility and the spike down.

    If you are not leveraged, then you should not be complaining but using this as an opportunity to buy more physical.

    You can pin this on an EE or Blythe or the boogie man, but everybody by now understands the silver market and must realize that at any given moment in the trading day, there can be a three dollar spike down. It is volatile, and the rules are changed frequently to eject longs. Use this to your advantage. Don't take my word for it -- reread what Turd wrote in this blog post.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Turd, with silver at 36.82 what is the support now? Thanks for your help.

    ReplyDelete
  100. harfwit,

    have done lot's of work on ATAC and it paid off big for me. But last year. Rode it up nicely all summer and sold off when the Yukon went cold. One of my best trades of 010.

    The thing to know about ATAC is how remote the resource is. Not quite as bad as Pebble, but that isn't saying a whole lot, now is it?

    Yes the Carlin-like trend and other sweet finds make the heart sing, but bear in mind the costs and time involved to make it all happen. Hundreds of millions, 4+ years, and 1000 tons of uncertainty away from that hundred bagger.

    All should know about ATAC, the key as always is getting it on the come, when it can perform, rather than languish. In the case of ATAC I think that is a pretty tricky proposition right now. Keep it on a watchlist for sure. It could well be huge.

    ReplyDelete
  101. I hear ya Joe Jost, I don't trade which is why I directed the question at you to find out if Gold was spanked at the same time. The graph I looked at showed gold went down $10 during that same time frame and was curious if someone was thumping them both or gold just followed along. Didn't make much sense to me and seems like a very blythe'y kind of thing to do.

    I have stayed with stacking physical because I just don't get this paper market worth a damn.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Kiwi#1 you keep your metal in a pool?

    ReplyDelete
  103. I don't think it's a coincidence that we got sold off in silver other night from $39 to 36.80 in a couple of minutes and now we're at 36.83.

    ReplyDelete
  104. I hear Chlorine causes silver to tarnish (Haaahaha)

    ReplyDelete
  105. @ waffen

    39% in a day? Jeebus, sorry to hear that, but I imagine your up days are pretty damn big too.

    If I am up or down 2% in a day it's a big deal.

    Guess that's why I play option spreads, low volatility currencies and stay away from silver.

    I used to play oil a lot, and got 'widowmakered' a few times by NatGas, but these days they are too volatile for me.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Well I hear BM causes silver to be more affordable (Haaahaha)

    ReplyDelete
  107. Never ceases to amaze me how some claim to be experts if they happen to be right on an intra-day move, yet they are wrong just as much (or more), yet you just don't hear about it. People beat their chests when they are right and quiet as a church mouse when wrong, so nobody will call them out on it. That's what makes TF special, he makes a guess, tells everyone it is just a guess and he's still posting about it whether he is right or wrong. And he's more right than anyone on this board or anyone else I read.

    ReplyDelete
  108. I was going to leave you a message last night, Mr. Ferguson, but where is the fun in showing my cards beforehand each and every time? But now I will wish you this: May you have an exciting week!

    ReplyDelete
  109. @waffen - that's why I've been mostly silent as of late, s/n too high to deal with. The setup this morning was important enough too not mention though. Not sure what to do differently next time something's staring me in the face like that. (not that it happens all that often...) Hope the new site comes before then.

    ReplyDelete
  110. @ humahuaca

    I only had the benefit of a few up days before May 1st holiday. So nope I have gone from 8K balance to what looks to be 1200 based on today. hooray me.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Gang,

    I'm sorry I didn't mention it today, in general there are so many people better at TA on this site than I am, but, in the interest of dissecting this and positioning appropriately for future attacks: I was watching the RSI and MACD, and it sure looked to me like the whole objective of the price action today was to drive the 4 hour RSI < 50, essentially to line up the technical indicators; the slow gentle arc
    from 36.70-ish to 38.70-ish was on flattening RSI, declining over the holiday weekend.

    I had to take one of the rugrats off to the orthodont, so I bought 10 SLV 39/36 put spreads before I closed down. Yay me!

    More importantly, I think we really have to keep our eyes on the charts at multiple timeframes to avoid these takedowns, or at least be defensively positioned for them.

    I just skimmed the comments from today (oh, please, tell me the new site will be here soon), but I didn't recall anyone else singing out about this.

    Maybe I just got lucky, but can someone with more TA savvy than me take a look at the charts through the day (netdania - Full Stoch, RSI, MACD), and tell me you don't see it as weakness/a setup?

    I fear/hope this gift will be short lived....

    ReplyDelete
  112. @ewc.
    All the things we consider have risks,
    but the ratio very nice here I believe.
    Who would sell now after waiting all
    these frozen months for drills to turn ?
    Even If they do, Tocqueville etc etc will buy
    them anyway. If Atac had the same amount of
    gold as Barrick (unlikely !), which shares
    are the safer buy ? Improving infrastructure
    with runways etc. Dont get me wrong. When the
    ship finally sets sail, I expect to be buying Goldcorp,
    Agnico, Kinross and maybe Eldorado calls as well .

    ReplyDelete
  113. Blythe, I will have to pull down my shrine I had dedicated to you; that my children were praying to. Thanks for nothing.

    ReplyDelete
  114. We already know the hand you're playing, Blythe... and Benron beat you to the punch yesterday anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Leonard,

    Can you fill me in then?

    ReplyDelete
  116. I for one will be relieved when Turd gets his site up and running. This blog is great, but i think a proper forum would be a huge benefit for all of us.

    ReplyDelete
  117. waffen she's trying to keep silver under $39 obviously, just like turd said, but that lunatic never passes up an opportunity to play the smashcard on declining momo in the forex

    ReplyDelete
  118. Was the capital M in Blythe's "May" simply a typo, or a hint at a May Smackdown, Round 2 coming at us?

    Who cares?! All it means to me is that I may get to buy even more PM for even less fiat crappola!!!

    In your ear beeeaaaatch.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @Chris

    Gold is gold, I think Centenarios are gorgeous coins and you can't beat the price. I recently bought one for $1835! I have some Krugerrands, British sovereigns, Swiss & French francs and Centenarios. It is very easy to check for gold content.

    It always makes me scratch my head how so many precious metals bugs blast the US government yet insist on owning only coins minted by that same government! I'd much rather have more gold and pay less premiums. Silver too. Speaking of silver, thanks for the dip Blythe, I'm going out to buy some right now.

    KEEP BUYING PHYSICAL SILVER people! The COMEX can't last long if we do.

    ReplyDelete
  120. to keep up the faith:)
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scotia-mocatta-loses-60-its-physical-silver-one-month-reclassification-total-comex-registere

    ReplyDelete
  121. well based on the action.. getting $42 before QE3 is announced is looking a lot more doubtful.. and if we have to pass a debt extention before we can have QE3, then it could be until september or more.. which makes me think that i need to liquidate all options and just wait it out =/

    ReplyDelete
  122. ewc58 - well Blythe and the Bernankster (sounds like a crap Vegas act) have both been eerily prescient, so i hope you're correct and she does a monstersmash because this truck of mine needs some backin' up.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Self evident truth will prevail Turd. With ya all the way. Where are the regulators? Better be buying air force one tickets with real money gold/silver for the great Keynesian experiment collapse. Headed for places unknown or we the people hunt then down like dogs. Lots-o looney tunes heading for the tarmack.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Just a rant, but maybe some of you can identify with this.

    I don't think it's a coincidence that when Obama was pressed today to cut spending (and pressed back on the debt ceiling) that the markets got a little bruised. "All part of the plan."

    It wasn't a "flash crash," it wasn't panic selling, it was a controlled raid, and it occurred at the end of the day. Been there, done that, learned the lessons.

    Lately, silver looks like it's in the crosshairs of TPTB -- more so than at any time for the past couple of years. That's got to make you nervous; it scares TSOOM.

    Remember that news story a year or two ago about Goldman hiring psychologists to watch blogs and financial forums to gauge sentiment? Somebody noted above that "cryptic comments" are showing up on Turd's site... I hate to see that, Turd, you deserve better.

    Remember the infamous Goldman trading program? The one that allowed their supercomputers to detect orders that had been entered on a computer but not yet placed? The one that was stolen, that "had the potential to manipulate markets?"

    How can an ordinary investor or speculator make any money, long-term, when they've got us beaten so resoundingly from those two factors, alone?

    Maybe you'll claim the fundamentals are on our side, and sure, of course they are, and it kills me to see markets so blatantly NOT trading on fundamentals. But who cares, when 0% money is being handed out like candy in million dollar denominations to the Fed's minions to prop up, no to LAUNCH the chosen securities (or bury those perceived as a threat)?

    As for the technical charts, well, maybe that gives some people some security, but in the light of market manipulation I'm afraid it's a false sense of security.

    Today, FAZ was up 8%, and it's almost a convincing move. But was it too quick? It smells like bait, to me, given the other factors (need to raise the debt ceiling, need for QE3 in light of poor jobs outlook, etc.)

    But what do I know. Nada. I've got some silver coins and I'm hoping I never actually use them. I've got a Ron Paul bumper sticker, and for the first time in my life I've contributed to a political candidate's campaign (his). As I see it, it's Ron Paul or hide in the woods for the next five years (not really an option, since I have kids).

    /end rant

    ReplyDelete
  125. JNG said...
    Ok, just bought a crap load of AGQ after hours...if it goes down some so what...by the end of the month we should be back at around the $40 range anyways....
    *************

    I kind of like the strategy. what is your experience. It is 2 X leverage which gives some leverage but it is not like an option that can expire worthless. In a worst case it is a stock and can be held until silver comes back. And for sure Silver is going to be higher much higher in the future. No way is silver going to go to zero.

    A bit like a silver stock except the stocks are far too independent. AGQ moves right along with silver because it sort of is silver times two.

    Can also get options on the stock.

    I just wish thre were some with more leverage than 2.

    Comex gold gives about a 30 to 1 leverage. a bit mucho much.

    I hope some people can give some experience and good and bad about AGQ.

    I definitely want some leverage but I want safe leverage. What do people think is safe leverage in this environment.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @ M. Halyard

    I'm not a paranoid type but I find it perfectly reasonable that someone at JPM or other entities would monitor this site and sites like ZH, etc. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they use the info Turd supplies to actually work against him to discredit his commentary and advice. This is in a large part a propaganda war of perception and faith that TPTB are fighting... they fight it in the conventional mainstream media so why wouldn't they fight online as well?

    ReplyDelete
  127. Nice site.

    The last month's action in silver is nearly insignificant when viewed using a 2-dimensional phase space reconstruction. The gold-silver ratio would have to return to about 50 within the next two months in order to violate the breakout of the ratio from the region of phase space in which it has been trapped for the past 12 years or so.

    Plots here: http://worldcomplex.blogspot.com/2011/06/terrifying-correction-in-silver.html

    ReplyDelete
  128. Afrum! You are the sincere, refined, .9999 pure metal man!

    <<"Anyone with any genuine courage; kahonies won't deserve to have one ounce of real money, if they can't take the ultimate take down by the criminals. Don't think for a second the criminals won't shake out every last ounce of silver from the weak handed. You're not prepared for that? GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!!! Get out now and place your FRN's upon the altar of the beast.>>

    As for me, regular purchases of Au & Ag every two weeks, short term stack goals & long term...patience, The trap is being set for the likes of Trollercoaster, Nadler, bob_dabolina, Brian O'Flanagan...their words are as empty as the FRNs that they hold.

    ReplyDelete
  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  130. 8:30a

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  135. The last month's action in silver is nearly insignificant when viewed using a 2-dimensional phase space reconstruction. The gold-silver ratio would have to return to about 50 within the next two months in order to violate the breakout of the ratio from the region of phase space in which it has been trapped for the past 12 years or so.
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  142. organizacion de bodasPhysical Therapy CambridgeThe last month's action in silver is nearly insignificant when viewed using a 2-dimensional phase space reconstruction. The gold-silver ratio would have to return to about 50 within the next two months in order to violate the breakout of the ratio from the region of phase space in which it has been trapped for the past 12 years or so.

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  143. vestido de noviaCatering AtlantaGreat Comment! I learned some things reading it. And it's nice that five people responded to you politely. Are you, by any chance, familiar with a Forbes article about whether or not the deficit is too large? I read it yesterday online but now I can't find it again. It surprised me, especially coming from a magazine I tend to think of as quite conservative. If you know what I'm talking about, I'd appreciate it if you can tell me the website or the issue date on that article so I can find it again.

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  145. abbigliamento da tennis

    Removals OxfordYes the Carlin-like trend and other sweet finds make the heart sing, but bear in mind the costs and time involved to make it all happen. Hundreds of millions, 4+ years, and 1000 tons of uncertainty away from that hundred bagger.

    All should know about ATAC, the key as always is getting it on the come, when it can perform, rather than languish. In the case of ATAC I think that is a pretty tricky proposition right now. Keep it on a watchlist for sure. It could well be huge.

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  148. verzekeringen

    pdf splitterI hear ya Joe Jost, I don't trade which is why I directed the question at you to find out if Gold was spanked at the same time. The graph I looked at showed gold went down $10 during that same time frame and was curious if someone was thumping them both or gold just followed along. Didn't make much sense to me and seems like a very blythe'y kind of thing to do.

    I have stayed with stacking physical because I just don't get this paper market worth a damn.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Igre

    keratin hair treatmenthave done lot's of work on ATAC and it paid off big for me. But last year. Rode it up nicely all summer and sold off when the Yukon went cold. One of my best trades of 010.

    The thing to know about ATAC is how remote the resource is. Not quite as bad as Pebble, but that isn't saying a whole lot, now is it?

    ReplyDelete
  150. Igre

    keratin hair treatmentAll the things we consider have risks,
    but the ratio very nice here I believe.
    Who would sell now after waiting all
    these frozen months for drills to turn ?
    Even If they do, Tocqueville etc etc will buy
    them anyway. If Atac had the same amount of
    gold as Barrick (unlikely !), which shares
    are the safer buy ?

    ReplyDelete
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    jobsucheHis first race at Wimbledon Stadium came in January 2000 when the dog was invited to compete in the Juvenile Championship. He placed second behind Knockanroe Rover. Following a third-place finish in the Scottish Greyhound Derby, he returned to Wimbledon to take part in the English Greyhound Derby.

    ReplyDelete
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    metal fabrication brisbaneis first race at Wimbledon Stadium came in January 2000 when the dog was invited to compete in the Juvenile Championship. He placed second behind Knockanroe Rover. Following a third-place finish in the Scottish Greyhound Derby, he returned to Wimbledon to take part in the English Greyhound Derby

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  156. Carnivalesque is a term coined by the Russian critic Mikhail Bakhtin, which refers to a literary mode that subverts and liberates the assumptions of the dominant style or atmosphere through humor and chaos.Bakhtin traces the origins of the carnivalesque to the concept of carnival, itself related to the Feast of Fools, a medieval festival originally of the sub-deacons of the cathedral, held about the time of the Feast of the Circumcision (1 January), in which the humbler cathedral officials burlesqued the sacred ceremonies, releasing "the natural lout beneath the cassock.
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  157. The last month's action in silver is nearly insignificant when viewed using a 2-dimensional phase space reconstruction. The gold-silver ratio would have to return to about 50 within the next two months in order to violate the breakout of the ratio from the region of phase space in which it has been trapped for the past 12 years or so.Volkswagen AC Compressor

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    Even If they do, Tocqueville etc etc will buy
    them anyway. If Atac had the same amount of
    gold as Barrick (unlikely !), which shares

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