Oh Happy Day

Yes, today was challenging but what day isn't? On the brightside, Mr. Postman brought me another present today. This little gift was particularly fun because I had forgotten all about it. Behold one of my new "Silver Keisers"!!

Secretly, I'm hoping that someday, someone will mint a "Silver Turd". Just a hunch but I think we could out-sell the Silver Keiser. Seriously, who wouldn't want to lug around a Silver Turd for good luck??

Someone on the previous thread asked for some longer-term, daily charts. I am happy to oblige because I had planned to anyway and I knew that the longer-term charts would provide you with some clarity and comfort. So, here you go.

First up and most important is the POSX.

You can see this coming plain as day. The POSX today traded exactly as high as yesterday but closed right at yesterday's low. This very likely means that it is going down tomorrow. With the 8:30 release of the BLSBS, I expect a weak number to lead to dollar selling. Dropping through the lows of 5/6 at 74.11, ole Pigatha Christie will plunge toward 73.50 and, eventually, 73. The only thing that can prevent this would be an upside BLSBS surprise (unlikely) or some MOPE and SPIN regarding the PIIGS (somewhat likely).

Now take a look at a chart of crude that goes back to before the announcement of QE2. Note that the significant resistance of 98-100 has become significant support. As I stated earlier, this is a very attractive trade from a risk:reward standpoint. You can buy right here if you want or you can wait and hope to get a chance to buy closer to $98. Then, you put a tight stop in below $95. That gives you $3-5 of downside risk. However, with MENA issues, supply disruptions, pending QE3 and possible WW3 on the horizon, you've got...ohhh...maybe $200 of upside. Just sayin...

Here is gold, which presents a very clear technical picture. The trend off of "Turd's Bottom in January is still very much intact. I still firmly believe that $1560, maybe even $1580, is your next target.

Lastly, here's poor ole silver, the object of much chagrin and gnashing of teeth. Yes, in hindsight, there was clearly a blow-off, short-term top that drew too far away from the primary trend to have solid underpinnings. However, you can clearly see that silver has settled comfortably back into its rising range. While there will be dips and bumps along the way, why would anyone not expect silver to be in the $45-50 area by December? (Unless, of course, the Comex collapses and futures are no longer trading while spot is around $200. Don't laugh. I'm serious.)

That's it for today. Gotta get ready for tomorrow. Beginning at 8:20 EDT, I'll be in front of the tube, watching CNBS, listening to The Shill, The Coug and LIESman preen and project before the big number. After the number, I'll take a moment to listen to them backtrack and play CYA while I gather my thoughts. I'll have a new thread for you shortly thereafter.

In the meantime, go relax and enjoy your evening. Mrs F is sending the LTs over to a friend's house for a sleepover tonight. This means that The Doctor of Love Is In. I've got the "do not disturb" sign on the door and a roll of quarters beside the vibrating bed ;)
Turd out.