Thursday, June 2, 2011

Oh Happy Day

Yes, today was challenging but what day isn't? On the brightside, Mr. Postman brought me another present today. This little gift was particularly fun because I had forgotten all about it. Behold one of my new "Silver Keisers"!!
Secretly, I'm hoping that someday, someone will mint a "Silver Turd". Just a hunch but I think we could out-sell the Silver Keiser. Seriously, who wouldn't want to lug around a Silver Turd for good luck??

Someone on the previous thread asked for some longer-term, daily charts. I am happy to oblige because I had planned to anyway and I knew that the longer-term charts would provide you with some clarity and comfort. So, here you go.

First up and most important is the POSX.
You can see this coming plain as day. The POSX today traded exactly as high as yesterday but closed right at yesterday's low. This very likely means that it is going down tomorrow. With the 8:30 release of the BLSBS, I expect a weak number to lead to dollar selling. Dropping through the lows of 5/6 at 74.11, ole Pigatha Christie will plunge toward 73.50 and, eventually, 73. The only thing that can prevent this would be an upside BLSBS surprise (unlikely) or some MOPE and SPIN regarding the PIIGS (somewhat likely).
Now take a look at a chart of crude that goes back to before the announcement of QE2. Note that the significant resistance of 98-100 has become significant support. As I stated earlier, this is a very attractive trade from a risk:reward standpoint. You can buy right here if you want or you can wait and hope to get a chance to buy closer to $98. Then, you put a tight stop in below $95. That gives you $3-5 of downside risk. However, with MENA issues, supply disruptions, pending QE3 and possible WW3 on the horizon, you've got...ohhh...maybe $200 of upside. Just sayin...
Here is gold, which presents a very clear technical picture. The trend off of "Turd's Bottom in January is still very much intact. I still firmly believe that $1560, maybe even $1580, is your next target.
Lastly, here's poor ole silver, the object of much chagrin and gnashing of teeth. Yes, in hindsight, there was clearly a blow-off, short-term top that drew too far away from the primary trend to have solid underpinnings. However, you can clearly see that silver has settled comfortably back into its rising range. While there will be dips and bumps along the way, why would anyone not expect silver to be in the $45-50 area by December? (Unless, of course, the Comex collapses and futures are no longer trading while spot is around $200. Don't laugh. I'm serious.)

That's it for today. Gotta get ready for tomorrow. Beginning at 8:20 EDT, I'll be in front of the tube, watching CNBS, listening to The Shill, The Coug and LIESman preen and project before the big number. After the number, I'll take a moment to listen to them backtrack and play CYA while I gather my thoughts. I'll have a new thread for you shortly thereafter.

In the meantime, go relax and enjoy your evening. Mrs F is sending the LTs over to a friend's house for a sleepover tonight. This means that The Doctor of Love Is In. I've got the "do not disturb" sign on the door and a roll of quarters beside the vibrating bed ;)
Turd out.


  1. if there is a miss tomorrow equities should tank and therefore dollar will go up

    no plane crash imo

  2. @Kurt,
    July is 2010 crop corn. December is the 2011 crop being planted now. Sept is a transition month. Trade July or Dec. US corn supply is tight and July price must be high enough to ration the limited supply until fall harvest begins.

  3. Good one Turd. Silver and gold are slowly marching higher and higher. I think silver will double, gold will be 2,200-2,500 this time next year. But it's patience.

  4. As per Ranting Andy, the EE likes to suppress things before reports that would normally cause them to rise. That way when they rise, they just recover lost ground instead of gaining new. In that light, perhaps the reason for the hits over the last few days is in preparation for dollar negative news in the big report tomorrow.

  5. you rock, TF.

    Silver Turds? I know you're talking coins, but I've got an image of an actual silver turd on a chain, like boxers and their little gold gloves...

    regarding a comex default, no futures trading and a $200 spot: Sounds like PSLV et al should make out like bandits, no? Obviously, physical is safest... But if it's *just* a comex default and not a broader stock markets closing type of scenario, the physical backed etfs *should* reflect the $200 spot, no?

    Oh, and btw... what's the point of a DND sign if the kids are away? That's the time to rock out with your (@(& out! Go wild, man!

  6. I hope those aren't silver quarters! Feed the zinc slugs into that bed.

  7. @Art Lomax - Thanks for the info. I am still making a profit on the Sept. Corn, but perhaps I should just take it off the table and come back at another time. I don't know that market well. Do you have any thoughts?

    Lucky I have my Sept oil - it refuses to drop much no matter how hard they try, and my POSX short is in the money too. Helps make up for that big loss in silver (which I am still hanging onto for now - I can cover the loss for now if $36 holds).

  8. "...roll of quarters by the vibrating bed..."


  9. pforth: Ranting Andy is 100% correct. I have maintained this for years. The beatdown of today and yesterday is preparation for tomorrow.

  10. Is it true that

    (5000 * 5000 = 25 million ounces; Jesse/Goldcore are reporting 29,631,268 ounces)

    I'd say 70% phyz to 30% paper. Worst case: if phyzz goes UP paper to $15 or $20 or $0 (they can do anything), you're still on plus. In best case both go up.

  11. Hopefully they are pre 65 quarters. Have fun with the Urban Python or whatever you titled the male appendage

  12. Greetings all..the" Silver Turd" huh?
    The last time I had some made,the cost of the dies was $500.00 per side.
    Sunshine has a super high quality die option at $1,000.00 per side,and they use a bigger ton press so it is very high quality.
    The cost of manufacturing should be $2.10 per oz for any mint you use,(nwtm takes forever to make product)
    Most places have no min.order run, but to make it more cost effective you will probably want to start with 5,000 oz.
    One of the pop up adds on this site AOCS, is run by Rob Grey, I have done bussines with him before and he can probably
    handle the ordering and shipping. Maybe we should have a contest for a design? we need both sides,and it should be classy.

  13. Yes, kinda, that is the case.
    IF there is or ever was a Wynter Benton, now is the time for her to act.
    Carpe Diem!!

  14. If the removal of 5000 contracts worth of silver would break the COMEX, how much is normally removed each month? Just trying to get a sense of scale here...

  15. Thanks Turd. So hopefully tonight both silver and Mrs Turd will get a rise!

  16. Thanks Turd. Going to do my best to "relax" this evening. We'll see how that goes!

  17. pforth: Only 2166 stood for delivery in May after 4500 stood for deliver in March. As for July, only time will tell but obviously 6000 isn't out of the question.

  18. we are taking about a rigged game. Its like prisoners vs guards. we may get a few shots in but at the end of the day we are getting the baton. I'm gonna sit of on my cash until summer. ki might buy a little gold, oh and some little chunkies.

  19. Lessons learned this week-
    -never put yourself in a situation where you cannot sell. I’m watching my money disappear while I wait for funds to settle.
    Here’s my guessing for tommorow.
    SLV= somewhere in 33 or 34. I hope I am wrong

  20. @Tim

    What an excellent analogy for how I'm feeling after today's beatdown. As I said before, from now on, it's by physical, buy paper at the bottom and ignore it, or maybe day trade paper with tiny amounts and short time frames.

    Or trade something less painful like gold...


    What's the issue? With my account, I can buy, turn around and sell immediately, but then I have to wait 3 days for it to settle before I can buy again. Do you actually have to hold a stock for a time before you can sell? If that's the case, you also might want to trade something a little more sedate and slow moving.

  21. With the dollar failing so badly it reflects weakness on the PMs. If this was april we would have seen Silver up 5% today.

  22. I want a silver Turd!!! That's an excellent way to raise cash to maintain the new site. Add a " feed the turd" premium to it and I'd bet a Morgan that you'd sell em faster then they can make em. They'd make great contest prizes too and would keep everyone motivated to stay tuned in.. imoho

  23. drop in equities due to bad jobs numbers already priced in.
    hoping for a rally tomorrow on that weak dollar.
    i'll be shorting it again.
    should see a nice bounce in silver as usual on these days, as long as the 10 hr spares us.
    my short from 38 came off today. i'm putting it back on if silver moves up. no point in fighting the trend until qe is announced.

  24. I hope the do not disturb works out this evening. Thanks for the laugh Mr. Turd...

  25. Interesting much 4 him. Doesn't that speak to the manipulation that's going on

  26. The BTs will play while the LTs are away. Great cardio!

    Opening from Bill Murhpy's daily Midas update:
    Anyone out there who follows gold and does not realize the gold market is managed, and appreciate what The Gold Cartel does, is truly a MORON. Gold was higher and then just fell apart, falling to $1519. However, it came back later in the Comex trading session and cut its losses in half. But why? The dollar FELL .52 to 74.35 . But heck, when you live on Planet GATA, we don’t need to ask why. Tomorrow is a US jobs report. Gold has been hit right before, or on the day of a US jobs report, 95% of the time over the last decade. And that is no exaggeration. This is just par for the course. The good news is that we know what happens and why … and also know it is just a matter of time before the physical market takes over and gold makes new all-time highs.

    The AM Fix was $1540.75 and the PM Fix came in at $1539.50.

    Of some considerable technical note is that gold roared back off a strong support at $1520.

    Silver continues to gyrate all over the place, which is not unusual considering the beating it took weeks ago. That said, the silver fundamentals continue to improve and that is all we need for the price to power into all-time highs. For some technical reason a close above $38 seems to be the key. Once we get that close, silver should accelerate to the upside very quickly.
    The gold open interest rose 9229 contracts to 510,269. The silver open interest went up 849 contracts to 121,727.

  27. "With the 8:30 release of the BLSBS, I expect a weak number to lead to dollar selling."

    How does that make sense? Poor economic data causes a flight to "safety" (ie. US dollar) while the markets, including commodities, decline. Look at the action on Wednesday when the poor ADP data was released.

    Your perma-bull stance has always been annoying but deceiving the newbies here is just not nice.

  28. This comment has been removed by the author.

  29. Dan, can't ya read? Sign says:


  30. (a) crappy data = (b) crappy dollar
    (a) crappy data = (c) fed prints money = (b) crappy dollar = higher stocks!
    wednesday, however, investors were realizing that a doesn't equal c anymore.
    or should i say, banksters, were pulling out the rug from under the markets' feet.
    i think the flight from the market is priced in and we'll see an up day tomorrow. i'm using it as a higher entry point to increase my shorts.

  31. Help me out here. I'm watching all the charts on the blogs and the technical predictions. At the same time I am to understand that 70% of all trades are high frequency computer-generated trades. In addition, the CCCs are manipulating the markets. .........then, why are we all tied to the charts...still?

  32. TF, yes there were over 6K standing for delivery in March and May, but nowhere near that amount actually took delivery.
    As I said last night, if the price runs up into 6/30 and we still have a few thousand contracts still stand, expect a beat down again to shake that number into the hundreds.
    My plan is if several thousand stand after 6/30 to take half of the table and short. May not work like 4/29 but that's my assumption unless more info surfaces

  33. I'd def buy a silver Ferguson. Not so much the Putin flunky Keiser. Dude gives me the willies.

  34. @Dan

    We all read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

    Thanks for at least explaining your thesis.
    The man is honest and sharing his beliefs built this HUGE following.
    (the first two sentences were straight up)
    Your last sentence was an attack of his integrity and implies dishonesty.
    Plainly you are in error - even you know this.
    That's 'not nice' and you should apologize!

    Why not leave out the personal attack and 'discus' your opinions
    like a grown up - K?

  35. I do not take anything away from the action in the PM's, commodities or Stock Market in these sell offs other than the need for vacation money at the Hampton's. The boyz are going to the Hampton's and they need spending money and this is a great excuse, no QE3 and bad eco data. All BS but we have to play the game. Unless Euro land comes unglued I still say the PM's will be quieter then most think this summer.After 6/30 anyway

  36. Dan, ever consider the possibility that a weakening US economy will prompt foreign investors in the US stock market to sell stocks and then sell the dollars they get from the stocks and buy their local currency?

  37. @ Tehmaas...

    As an American who works almost exclusively in Central/Eastern Europs as well as Central Asia (with time in Pakistan and working with a lot of Indians in some of those places), I really appreciate what you are saying in regards to "other than First World markets." I think most people in the First World have no idea what suffering/surviving is in the last 50 years whereas the places I work and certainly much of Asia are still "hand to mouth" or "paycheck to paycheck"... your comments about banks, "saving" and "investing" are exactly what I have seen. I've mentioned numerous times that I can go to any teenie, tiny town in Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, Bulgaria... and at the branch bank office, they have 5g, 10g and 20g mini-wafers/bars for sale right at the teller (nevermind in markets/black markets).

    Of the people on this board, "Pablo" is my "average Ukrainian" in terms of how he is living and preparing under modest means.

    Thanks again for your "out of the norm/first world" perspective... you are right, there are BILLIONS of people who have no idea what the COMEX is or what "take delivery" means... they just know what has worked for 5,000+ years and how to survive.

  38. Tesla,

    Your right, poor economic data will cause risk assets to be bought, stocks and commodities will soar and the dollar will be sold. On the other hand, good economic data causes investors to rush into safe haven assets - US dollar and sell all risk assets. Genius.

  39. Here's a link to some gold charts. Scroll down to the weekly. That sucker is a thing of beauty! Why all the long faces? If there ever was an argument to just keep on stackin', that weekly chart is it.

    1600 looks like it is right around the corner. :D$GOLD

  40. @ Fotinbras

    I'm all with you... talking from my past experience

  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

  42. Recent spot silver price action seems to have been around the failure to break up through the 55DMA. Interesting to watch.

    On Comex already failed in January 1980 when it went to silver liquidation only...after the rout things returned to "normal". CME can (and will) do anything.

    In 2011 they can mine SLV baskets. I think they are already doing this, and GLD as well.

  43. Both my little change in direction buys are up nicly after hours


    Bottom feeding works at times :)

    Turd as per usual you rock brother, don't step on the TURD or you will be stepped on by the Turd Army.

    Take note of it...Peace.

  44. @ Petr

    I agree. A miss tomorrow should cause weakness in currencies not the dollar, although the euro may well trade contrarily based on the latest greek news.

    I imagine the greek news should be received as positive, they will want to announce an agreement of some sort, even if we all know it will never work.

    I hope the euro rockets, as I'm ready to short it all the way to 1.50. I really can't see it getting there again, but you never know with all the craziness going on.

    Today played out as I thought re CAD. I did not lighten up much yesterday, stupid of me, but I did buy more CAD close to 102 (98), pretty much got the low of the day, and sold at end of day to improve my average.

    So I am still long some CAD, right at the closing level, and feel good about it. Would feel a lot better if I hadn't bought so soon. Instead of being well up I am at break even.

    Not sure if 102 held due to strong support or it just happened that it held until the Moody's news came out which beat down the dollar and treasuries.

    Tomorrow's number will be bad of course, but the question now is, are expectations so low that we might get a stock market rally, even on mediocre numbers?

    I think that is very likely, which is why I decided to stay long CAD through the number.

    I have to say, CAD feels very heavy these days, completely opposite to the last 3 years, where it jumped on any little excuse. Compare CAD and the Euro recently, CAD is much weaker.

    I really don't understand it, as commodities are not doing all that badly. Oil is still above $100, and despite all the gnashing of teeth here, gold and silver are pretty well bid, IMO.

    So why is CAD lagging?

    Do you think that CAD might well be signalling something important, perhaps a turning point in commodities and commodity currencies?

    I might be completely wrong, which is why I will continue to buy CAD on dips, but one of these days I can see we could have a violent correction, where CAD goes below par, maybe a few cents below.

    In light of that, I am going to be far less aggressive buying (or more patient?), and might stick to bullish call spreads which provide some margin of error.

    Tomorrow should be a wild day, with announcements coming from greece as well. It will not be a one way street.

    Unfortunately I have to be on a plane at 9 am tomorrow, and I will miss most of it. Damn, that was very bad planning on my part.

    If you are trading CAD I would suggest buying at 102, or at very least not selling there until resistance is broken convincingly. It has not been easy to buy at 102, it doesn't stay there more than a few minutes, and we've bounced off it pretty quickly at least 3 times now, if not 4.

    Good luck.

  45. I, however, will make a personal attack on Dan.

    Dan, are you as dumb as a box of rocks?
    A weak number = Market perception that QE3 is likely sooner rather than later. More QE devalues the dollar.
    Down goes the dollar, not up, you dipshit.

    If my "perma-bull" stance is annoying, you can fuck off and go back to the Kitco boards.

  46. Dan:

    I will just go ahead and say what a lot of people here are thinking:

    You sound like an a$$, with a bad attitude and poor communications skills.

    You can state your point and make it productive. Instead, your poor communication skills make you come across like a douche.


  47. Dan said:

    How does that make sense? Poor economic data causes a flight to "safety" (ie. US dollar) while the markets, including commodities, decline. Look at the action on Wednesday when the poor ADP data was released.

    Your perma-bull stance has always been annoying but deceiving the newbies here is just not nice.


    DOLLAR SAFETY???? HA HA HA HA HA! I would rather collect Nickles.

  48. @pforth

    u nailed it. buy the rumor sell the news. unfortunately, we can only guess the rumors since those dirty little secrets are kept to the chosen assholes.


    the charts always matter. the bots are buying and selling based upon things humans have programmed into the system, actually very much based upon TA and chart patterns.

  49. Your right, poor economic data will cause risk assets to be bought, stocks and commodities will soar and the dollar will be sold. On the other hand, good economic data causes investors to rush into safe haven assets - US dollar and sell all risk assets. Genius.


    Let me guess Obama for president bumper stickers all over the back of your SUV. Good economic data Christ almighty. Even the shills on Squawk box said the Government is propping up the entire market...and these are paid shills. Is your real name Harry Wagner by any chance?

  50. Hi Turd

    Love those Keiser coins.

    I would strongly support a Turd Ferguson coin and more Keiser ones too!

    What better way to get the EE's fraud known.

    Have you considered contacting some one like Jason Hommel to make you some and sell them?

  51. While I agree that QE3 will depress the dollar and boost the commodities, I think it's a matter of timing.

    The Fed seems to be signalling no QE right now, and with one bad economic number after another, I think there will be a flight from stocks. Where will the money go? Lots will go into Treasuries, which will make Ben and Timmy happy (and may be the whole purpose of the delay). Some will go into the commodities, but TPTB have created an environment that makes the commodities a "risky investment".

    Looking at mid-2008, if you bought GLD, SLV, and SPY at the same time, SLV and the SPY both dropped about 45% and GLD dropped about 25%... so I'd have to suspect in a general market selloff that the commodities would take a hit as well.

    So my thought is that we get a short, sharp selloff of everything starting shortly, a slow downward summer, and then Ben rides to the rescue in the fall, when it's game on for the shiny stuff.

    Just my .02

  52. More QE... 66 Billion without raising the debt ceiling ???

  53. Turd, don't forget to make sure those are fiat zombie quarters and not pre 1964's. Just sayin'

    Although I'm sure Mrs. Turd is more than worth spending a little extra for the good vibes, right! ;)

    Just around 4:30pm EDT today Gainesville Coins calls to tell me my (3) 10 ounce Morgan silver bars are ready to pick up! Whoo-hoo!

    But what perfect boss had left early, and I couldn't wait, so I knew if I ducked out early I just might get to the shop before they closed at 5pm.

    Made it! Love going in there cuz they have a smokin' hot blonde girl w/ a slight Austrian (I think) accent who always seems to get me to trade my zombies in way easier than I should allow! She's a hottie...

    Anyways...picked up those very cool silver bars, and since, well, at 5pm EDT we had a pretty decent chance to BTFD once again, I let that hot blonde talk me into a round of 20 beautiful silver Philharmonics. And since they didn't have to be ordered and were in the glass case already I got to walk out with them.

    If I'm lucky one o'these days, hopefully I'll walk outta GVille coins one night after work with another roll of silver and that blonde for some drinks! :)

  54. Doctor Love Turd,

    all the best for tonight!

    Just wanted to comment on your chart view of POSX. My only criticism of your view is based on fundamentals, in that your focus is almost exclusively on the USD side of the equation. But we know that the two most heavily weighted components of the POSX are EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Of course we know the problems for the USD. But EUR and JPY are as bad, or worse. That's why I struggle to see any waterfall decline for POSX. Rather, I see continuous shuffling of the deck-chairs on the titanic.

    Because of this view I like to have XAU/EUR (long gold/short euro) and XAU/JPY (long gold/short yen) positions in addition to XAU/USD (long gold/ short dollar).

  55. @Save America

    Where you live? Greenville NC/SC?

  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

  57. hey guys, can I have your opinion about this interview on cnbc:

    These are the main points:
    1) Qe3 will not start untill Fed sees big minus numbers.
    2) Emerging markets will slow down.
    3) Problem of raising debt ceiling is good for the bond market and for the dollar.
    4) Stocks will fall
    5) Gold, oil and commodities down for the next year / 18 months.

    What are your impressions about these points and how long do you think the Fed could wait before launching qe3?

  58. This comment has been removed by the author.

  59. Photo of Mrs F over at King World News Blog ?

  60. @ Shill

    Thanks! I'm heading to Canada for a few months, summer is great there, although I will miss the latinas for sure.

    I also was long TBT, but at a stupid level, I don't know what I was thinking, and I got out of it today at a small loss and was thanking my lucky stars.

    I bought UBT near the close today as a bit of a hedge to my other positions.

    I think if you hold either TBT or UBT for more than a day you will get a chance to sell at a profit, lol.

    Also tempted to short NatGas here...but I have been so burned by it in the past I am wary. I really don't understand it, but itching to get my losses back.

    How about shorting oil? I don't see how it goes up with the saudis saying they will produce more and the economy collapsing.

    I won't short it right here, but if it goes up a few more bucks I might.

    So many possibilities, I really can't keep them all straight. Not boring though is it?

  61. Tesla...

    I say "GVille" cuz it's short for Gainesville Coins, which is not too far from me here in Tampa, FL.

    I first heard about them on here or maybe it was Zerohedge about 6 months ago from people posting prices from their website.

    Went to the site and saw that their local number was in my area code. Had no idea I was not too far down the road from their showroom.

    How pissed would I have been if I had ever ordered from them and payed for shipping charges if I hadn't known they were right up the street from me! LOL

  62. Rats - I was going to go buy some shiny from the smokin blonde.
    Oh well... APMEX is having a 'flash sale' on rounds until 5pm tomorrow.
    Guess I'll buy them on my 'sexy' computer instead.

  63. @Simone

    If you saw my earlier post, it tracks pretty closely to what John Taylor is saying (obviously, he thought of it before me, I'm just trying to synthesize what I'm reading into a coherent plan).

    Honestly, I think we've been in a solid recession all along (despite what the statistic wonks say), and by next year we may be in a full blown depression, for these reasons:

    1. Manufacturing (the major source of a countries wealth) isn't ever coming back like it was, and may partially return only if we reach 3rd world wage structures.
    2. You can't support our living standards with a "service and financials" economy.
    3. Housing wealth (a major source of personal wealth for decades) isn't coming back for a decade or two.
    4. The stock market (and potentially commodities) are being proped up directly by government intervention... when that goes, the market goes down, how low, nobody knows.

    Oh, we can "extend and pretend" for a few more years, continuing to prop up certain parts of our economy, but it all comes down eventually.

  64. testing 1...2...3...
    gracias to all.........

  65. for what it's worth....

    The first APMEX Summer Flash Sale starts today! Don't pass up this amazing opportunity to buy ANY QUANTITY of 1 oz. Sunshine Mint Silver rounds for $0.99 per oz. over spot! You have UNTIL 5 P.M. CDT tomorrow* to take advantage of this exclusive offer.

    Tomorrow the price for these fine Silver rounds goes back to normal and this deal is gone forever! So be sure and stock up on Silver at a great price while supplies last.

    they make me suspicious at times...remember the buy back before the May Day ankle grabber....

  66. I've got the "do not disturb" sign on the door and a roll of quarters beside the vibrating bed ;)

    Oh to be young again. Tonight I will probably remain on the floor rolling all over laughing myself to death.

  67. be patient folks: Silver might be in a "handle" working his way to $38, coming back to $35.XX run again to and break $38 and then to the final mid-$45 ($7+ after $38...the same $7 from $39.5 to $32.5)...that's Turd calculations?
    Gold got a lot of support between $1500-$1510, to then make a run to the $1560 area, come back to test $1540 area...and to the $1620 Turd's magic is still possible, still possible.

  68. HELP

    I wanna look at trading stocks like AGQ. well that is an ETF but I think ETF's are stocks. Not sure. Anyway. I want to see the prices charted up during the day. I want to see how AGQ does compared to Silver at the same time. I suspect that the stock price would have a delay. also wonder about the dips. if they are equivalent. etc.

    Where can I get some 1 minute bars of AGQ ?

    I have NetDania to give me Gold and Silver which is pretty good for now and it is free. which is nice while studying and not trading.

    Also I have a question about overnight. What kind of protections can be done on commodities like silver and gold over night and also on stocks like AGQ ETF.

    Also what is the difference in trading gold on FOREX and on COMEX.

    Thanks everyone. I am making nice progress. working too hard on this the past couple of weeks but things are sort of coming together. I certainly have learned a lot. But have more to learn. a lot with sort of the process of placing orders knowing I can protect myself all 24 hours. or even to enter trades in the night and exit in the comex. I dont know. I need a profitable method first.

  69. interesting...if you have 6 min to spare...

    Alex Reunited with Trooper Who Arrested Him for Thumbscan Refusal

  70. sockeye1,
    "Also what is the difference in trading gold on FOREX and on COMEX. "

    Forex for XAU (gold) and XAG (silver) are spot markets. COMEX gold and COMEX silver are futures markets.

  71. Kiwi...

    you forgot to add the fact that the few private sector jobs that are being created are very low paying relative to the jobs that were lost forever... people need to remember that whenever they see a number like "38,000 jobs added."

    This gets into what I call the "standad of living bubble" that the US experienced from 1945 until Germany and Asia started becoming truly competitive again around 1980. As a nation, we (the US) had a 35 year run with ZERO global competition and it allowed us a few generations whereby a guy putting hub caps (remember those?) on cars was paid enough to own a modest home, have a cabin "up north" (I grew up in Detroi), have a small motor boat and maybe a few dirt bike and snow mobiles. Somehow, we came to think that "this is the way it is supposed to be" when it had NEVER been that way before in the history of man. Finally, the world caught up, labor was arbitraged (as someone said earlier), and our "standard of living bubble" has been popping one little (but seamingly huge) bubble at a time (e.g., dot com bubble, housing bubble, employment bubble... now going into the really painful and permanent bubbles).

    We killed the goose that was laying golden eggs... America was the "great experiment" but I'm afraid we have blown it and we'll cause a lot of collateral damage going down. Obama's Deficit Panel laid it all out there for the world to see... and they were dismissed immediately by all... except by nut jobs like us here on this blog.... at least the internet has allowed people like us, worldwide, to band together IN REAL TIME... how amazing is that?

  72. Kiwi... actually, you did basically say that! Sorry... just wanted to add my two bits!

  73. Negative -28 on the US fut's.

  74. @Fortinbras

    No problem, bro... I hadn't really thought about the fact that even in a perfect world, we could not have kept all those manufacturing jobs... things really were sweet for the post WWII blue collar workers... and we are busy canibalizing the countries infrastructure to try to keep meeting those expectations... but we aren't the only ones, look at Greece.

    What to do about it, I have no idea... I've moved my mutual funds into bonds, and my trading account is all cash... I haven't really had to trade in a bear market situation (started trading last fall), I'm afraid I'm about to learn... :-O

  75. @humahuaca

    Not boring in the least. My TBT plays are 48 hours in for a quick grab, nothing more. Its an easy play really, one day the sky is falling two days of eCONomic recovery LOL.

    Right now I am bottom feeding some short term gains. Sold my SLV call, all the noise about CoNmEX I figured Ill take what I made and jump.

    Gold miners come July is where I'll be loading up, but not yet, I still think they may get cheaper.

  76. Ok, let's talk guns. What do we need and what can I get by with? I know we need something for personal protection/home defense. I don't know what else we need or where to start. Important: we have two small children and a dog. Quality advice wanted!

  77. "CD said...
    Blythe and Trinity B are comic relief."

    No. They're for a few losers to feel important.

  78. @ pablo

    smith and wesson 357 (revolver)4 inch barrel is my personal favorite. I have a concealed carry permit and sometimes carry a snub nose 38 special smith and wesson.

    Go to an indoor range and rent a few different handguns and see what you like. I like a revolver others like semi automatic like a 9mm glock (nice gun). All a matter of what fits your hand comfortably and what you like.

    Also a shotgun is a nice addition but if you have to use it indoors, you will probably have a lot of collateeral damage.

  79. "silberblick said...
    Those who are less emotional will surely understand the point I am making: (1) that while turd's intentions have always been good, what he has to offer is no longer as useful as it once was. Chart analysis on silver is circumscribed to the point that it is pretty much useless now, and (2) waking up to this reality (and getting out of paper and starting to stack) has been a long road for some."

    Well, the reactions to your postings on the last thread definitely outed some of the participants here, again. You meant well and were attacked for telling things as they are.

    Rest assured, people like them who refuse to face facts will actually lose wealth trading this bull market, while open people like you will probably, at least in the long term, increase their wealth by tremendous amounts.

    And isn't that the best confirmation you were right?

  80. Guns...
    hmm, my family used to bird and deer hunt every season. Now even that has gone by the wayside. to bad 'cause the game was far better than what can be purchased @ the supermarket.
    Just find it interesting that the Main Stream thinking about fire arms has in part removed a family tradition that went for generations.
    I grew up target shooting all the time. Never go now.
    But hey, To get used to shooting with less noise and cost, .22 caliber rifles are VERY user friendly. I am not at all a fan of hand guns, they are just to dangerous. the barrel point eveywhere all at once. its so short. most people cant hit anything w/ a pistol anyway!
    I don't use my rifles now, They are stored at my parent's. But i do not feel safe w/ out at least one in my home at all times. A .22 low caliber semi auto rifle. I can take the wings off a flie's back w/ it. ;)
    A 20 gauge shot gun would be user friendly for most. Would offer good home defence. Multi shot pump action. "Buck" shot rounds that fire several large pellets each shot for maximum odds of hitting target.
    SORRY :)
    Rant off- Just figured would throw aome info out there about something I know, may help some one who does not.

  81. Dan - the US$ as a flight to safety? Really?

    Let's have a think over this shall we?

    Gold now being accepted as collateral almost everywhere for anything.

    China, Iran, Brazil, India etc etc now trading more and more in their own currencies and in some instances gold.

    The US economy in deep deep deep do dooo.

    And the US$ is a safe haven asset? Are you drunk or are you just fucking with us? You must be messing with us.

    I live in a foreign country (not an American) but I have to do the majority of my business in US $. No choice. Our companies are relatively prolific - we DO NOT hold any US$ anymore. We buy them only as we need them. Don't know if you realize it or not but for foreign businesses this is a major paradigm shift. We don't trust your funny money any more.... tomorrow could be the day we wake up and find it worth zero. If you want to be the world's reserve currency again get your shit together and stop spending like a drunk drug dealer on a weekend bender in Vegas.

    Rant off.

    PS - Turd - have fun tonight. Thanks for the chuckle.

  82. @atlee

    I too have a concealed carry permit, S&W 638 is my main carry and at time smy Berreta .25

    SIG 239, and SIG 232 are my choices for real stopping power. Then there comes the Mossberg, and SKS..But I digress. :)

    Advid gun owner of 20 years, My 18 year old and 13 year old daughters are great shooters as well. Range time and safty is a must for sure.

  83. Pablo...Popular 12 guage,Remington 870 and Mossberg 500.9mm ,I have a Springfield Armory XDM hi-cap mag,19rd and I really like it. I also have a Colt AR-15 that I also like. Bushmaster also builds a quality weapon. 3,000 rds of ammo but would feel better with more.
    If you are inexperianced some form of training would be useful.

  84. @Pablo

    You need these

  85. Pablo... Part 1 of 2

    You are going to get a MILLION responses on this one, but here are my four bits (not just two):

    1) Buy Mel Tappan's "Survival Guns" of Boston T. Party's "Boston's Gun Bible." If you don't want to do that, here are my comments and I have had a ton of professional training and have been on the "two way range" outside of the United States several times.

    2) Handguns: do not let ANYONE tell you that, "[insert pistol brand here] is the best!" By that I mean that anyone who tells you that, in the case of semi-auto pistols, Glock is better than Sig is better than Springfield is better than Kimber... knows NOTHING about actual gun fighting and I don't give a rats ass if they've "been in law enforcement/military for 20+ years" and are therefore, an "expert." All of those brands are just as good as the other in terms of quality and reliability relatively speaking. Therefore, the best handgun is the one that FEELS THE MOST COMFORTABLE IN YOUR HAND WHEN YOU PICK IT UP. Then, bring that pistol up naturally and see how close the sight line is to your natural draw. THAT is the pistol that is right for you... buy that one, in a standard caliber of either .45 or 9mm (you do not want "exotic" calibers like .357 Sig or .40 S&W in a crunch... you want most the plentiful ammo in the world), then get some proper traiging, then go shoot THOUSANDS of rounds TRAINING DRILLS. This is important. Standing still, breathing normally, and punching holes in paper is NOT training. Here's an easy drill... spring 50 yards up to the firing line, pick up your pistol, and then try taking aimed shots... you'll see what I mean immediately. THAT is much closer to real life with an adrenaline dump in your system. Learn to shoot without laser grips, but honestly, for gunfighting in close quarters, when your fine motor skills have gone to shit with the adrenaline dump and you barely have gross motor skills, the laser dot works like a charm... WITH TRAINING/PRACTICE!!!

    3) Rifles: For "home defense," you don't need one, although some people are starting to say (and it has merit) that a compact M4 style rifle can be as good for home defense as a shotgun... WITH TRAINING/PRACTICE. If you want more opinionns on rifles for other purposes, let me know, but I'm limiting this post to "home defense" and not "survival."

    More to follow in Part 2...

  86. Part 2

    4) Shotguns: I don't care what anyone else says, the shotgun is still KING for home defense (and a lot of other things). For "home defense," Remington 870 and Mossberg 500 pump series are still "it" for simple, cheap, reliable shotguns, period. For "home defense," get an 18" barrelled one with a butt stock. DO NOT get a "fancy" pistol grip one or one with no butt stock at all... it's for idiots that watch movies and TV... pistol grip with a butt stock usually forces you to take your hand OFF the grip to unsafe the shotgun. As for shotguns with no pistol grip, I defy you to control it unless you shoot every day and even then, I'd call BS. NO TOYS on shotgun EXCEPT FLASHLIGHT. No lasers, no slings, no optics, no little bandoliers of extras shells hanging on the weapon... you want a clean shotgun that holds 5-7 shells and you can clear a house. THEN GO TRAIN... YOUR WIFE TOO!

    OK, now, if you were only going to buy ONE weapon for the house and nothing else, go to a local shop with a good reputation, put a Remington 870 or Mossberg 500 up to your shoulder, see how it feels, see if you can "safe/unsafe" the weapon WITHOUT taking your shooting hand off the weapon (I can with my Mossberg 935 semi-auto and that's why I bought it... FOR MY HANDS), but that shotgun for $3-500, GET TRAINING AND PRACTICE... A LOT... HUNDREDS OF ROUNDS...

    That's it for now, I'm sure plenty will disagree with me and that's fine. I'll put my credentials up against anyone's and remember, it is about what fits YOU as the shooter... the rest is up to you in terms of training and practice. If you aren't going to train/practice, don't buy anything.

  87. Pablo, I prefer this:

  88. PS I'm not disagreeing with what others are saying about weapons... Atless mentions revolvers... they are more reliable that semi-autos (fewer moving parts), I'm just a semi-auto (1911) kind of guy.

    His more important points mirror mine... "what works for you" and "train." Don't let someone tell you what works for you. It's the sign of amateur.

  89. Mr. Chapman always hits the mark.

  90. ...and a 22w/scope for hunting squirrels and such

  91. "Writings from Wolf Ranch said...
    ... I am to understand that 70% of all trades are high frequency computer-generated trades."

    At least 95%. Just look at daily volume, it'll explain everything to you if you just dissect it logically.

  92. Fortinbras top post brother top post.

    Its not about the brand its about the handling. And spot on Shotgun is still the "One".

    PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE, and that means learning the field strip as well. A clean tool is an accurate tool. ( wink )

    And she will love you long time.

  93. Kiwi#1

    Regarding your frustration with settlement and availability of funds. If you trade options in a cash account, sales settle at the end of that trading day and funds are available the next day. If you use a margin account (does not mean you trade on margin, you don't with options) the funds are available immediately. Of course, there are minimum deposit requirements for a margin account.

    Something for you to consider.

  94. Pablo,
    I can't speak as to a gun recommendation, BUT... I can speak to the point about having guns in the house with children.

    My husband has hunted and owned guns since he was a small boy. His dad taught him everything you need to know about everything you need to know about them. His dad instilled a strict respect that you teach children and a firm discipline that you teach children about firearms. Your fears are founded but ONLY if you buy guns and don't bother with training and irresponsibly leave them where your untrained children can hurt themselves or others.

    My 2 small-ish kids both know how to shoot. I am ashamed to say that I don't (yet). ..Not from a fear of it but just from putting it off for too long. But my husband wanted both kids to learn to be comfortable with a gun and to know all the rules and to have the training and to be taught the respect and discipline for them. Believe it or not it's NOT a big deal to them. They both enjoy the shooting range, have gotten very comfortable with it and they both have gone quail, deer, & duck hunting. They know our strict rules and they know the dire consequences if rules are violated. We of course are very careful and keep guns under lock and key but are considering a revised plan for quick access and because the kids are getting older. I honestly do not worry about the kids being in our home with guns in the house because of all the time spent talking to them and training them. Actually, I worry more about ME not having the good training that they both have and I am going to fix that coming up this summer. I'm not interested in hunting (at all! ..but I am interested in comfortably and confidently being able to handle a firearm.

    If you don't make it a thing of fear for the family.. they won't be freaked out. Treat it like any other skill the family is going to develop together. And then make sure everybody knows the gameplan and the rules. Kids are remarkable in that they haven't developed the biases and fears that we adults have.

    Best of luck. Only you can guage your kids and come up with a safe gameplan but from there it's not as scarey as it all sounds. I wish I had learned to handle firearms as a kid. Things just seem easier when you were taught with a young mind. :]

  95. @Fort

    As always we think alike. I was going to post about guns, decided I didn't need to. Now I read your post and you said just what I would have said only more and better.

    Saved myself a bunch of work! :)

  96. June 2, 2011 9:25 PM
    "Long John said...
    interesting...if you have 6 min to spare...

    Alex Reunited with Trooper Who Arrested Him for Thumbscan Refusal"

    Boy, was Alex looking sharp back then.

  97. @ Fort, & Ginger
    Great posts. great perspective.

  98. Thanks Shill and oldNavy.

    Ginger - I agree with everything you said.

    One other note along what Ginger said... in this day and age if you are going to have lots of other kids in the house, it's not just your kids you have to worry about, but everyone else that comes trapseing through your house that you have to worry about...

    ... in terms of "training" your kids, I've also trained mine not to talk about money/metal and firearms with anyone outside "the trusted circle" which is all of three other families.

  99. Fortinbras,
    Your post was very helpful to me. Thank you..

    You guys have made me realize that I need to get on this now.

  100. Ooops.. posting at the same time Fortinbras :]

    You are so right. ...Other kids coming through is a serious consideration to work into your plan.

    Also, on the topic of what the kids tell others.. mine don't even know we have metals but obviously since they shoot they know about the guns. That's a very good reminder for us to make certain that they know what they are and aren't allowed to tell others. Excellent Advice.

  101. got a decent bid price on a 1880 US Gold Half Eagle!
    (yes , yes precious in the mail you go!) :)-~

  102. Again... my post was for "home defense" ONLY!

    I get the impression that Pablo is in an urban environment and if it is only home defense that he is worried about (and not concealed carry or survival outside the house), then I stick with my Remington/Mossberg comments.

    For everything else, I cannot stress how good Mel Tappan's "Survival Guns" is as a primer for building your "personal battery" for different survival purposes.

  103. Thanks Gramp!!

    (Sure does feel funny calling a 32 year old 'gramp' :D :D )

  104. Guns guns guns.

    Fortinbras is right. Shoot what is most comfortable in terms of a handgun. I run an S&W M&P9. Most people laugh at me. Until we head to the range. I have short fingers so ergonomically the pistol fits me well. In terms of reliability they are mostly the same.

    He is also right about shotguns. Too many guys hang too many gadgets from them and they are distracted by them when really they should just be learning to shoot the damn things accurately.

    I run a Mossberg 590A1 with an 18" brl. It has a shorter mag tube but the gun is great in tight places and if I can't do what I need to do in five rounds then the last one is for me because I'm toast anyways. :-) Esspecially if I'm dealing with a bear. In bear country you have realistically have two chances to plug a charging bear - after that you are the main course.

    I don't like combat rifles for close quarters - the rounds carry too far and in bad times I wouldn't eant an errant 223 round taking off and killing a neighbour a block down the road. To this end my 9 is loaded with hollow point ammo because although it will make a mess of a chest cavitity it is highly unlikely to penetrate my wall and my neighbours wall. Safety first :-)

    Long range tactical rifles are another issue. I firmly believe that riflry is an art and skill that is developed just like anything else - it is part talent, part instict, part practice.

    Any centerfire caliber capable of carrying accurately to 500 meters or more will suffice. Like pistols you should be comfortable with your rifle. If it is awkward you won't hit dick shit. Practice lots and keep your optics simple. If you have to do math to figure out where to hold your crosshair you are wasting time. A laser range finder that is good out to 1000 meters will give you an accurate estimate on distance. You should shoot your rifle often enough and from a variety of positions to know where it impacts from 50 yards to at least 500 yards.

    If I see a deer at four hundred yards I know that the crosshairs on the back will result in a lower lung shot. Anything inside of that distance is dead meat.

    Anyways point is - Fortinbras is right. Find what fits you, buy a common caliber and shoot shoot shoot till you can't shoot no more. Keep it simple and repeat.

  105. once again I suggest everyone read this blog and you can also purchase his book on Amazon:

  106. Bottom line keep the Fire Arms talk amongst your family memebrs only, you dont want unwanated company breakng into your home for your fire arms ( which should be locked up anyway ) But hey things happen. Honestly other than our every other saturday trip to the range, the topic is not even brought up in our home.

    Ammo is expansive as well hence the every other saturday.., it truly is the other presious metal.

  107. Shill. You are correct. Which is why I don't own any guns. Besides - they are evil tools of the devil.

  108. Swampfox...

    We obviously see eye to eye on firearms in general, down to the basic types.

    For home shotgun, I'm Mossberg 935 semi-auto with 18" barrell. It is completely reliable, but the 930 would be slightly more reliable.

    I was keeping it to home defense, but seeing as you mentioned "bear country," when I'm at my place in Idaho, I keep a Stoeger over/under with two slugs in a scabbard on my back... it's a GREAT two-shot gun for me. ;)

    Also, on the ammunition note, and this is for pistols, rifles and shotguns, in this day and age, for home defense, there are now a plethora of ammunition types that are specifically designed for home defense that mitigate/eliminate over penetration issues in this age of dry wall homes.

    For home defense, people need to really, really, really have a picture in their head of the floor plan in their house, who is sleeping in what room, and if I shoot from point A in the middle of the night, am I in danger of hitting my 13 year old son sleeping in room B on the other side of 4 cheap assed walls?

    THINK and TRAIN!!!! At least think about it... situational awareness is 90% of everything you do from driving to shooting.

  109. Ahha Ginger, i know its a funny name for who i really am on here, but it started out of respect for an old fellow who helped me discover the Value of saving and holding real money.
    Has kinda stuck since it started even w/ my friends. :)

  110. @OldNavy

    Thanks for the thoughts! I'm not really frustrated, I've gotten used to the delay, and maybe it makes me think a little more carefully about my trades knowing there's a time cost involved. I've been setting up an account with OptionsHouse, so I'll probably start with their options simulator and maybe do a few options during the slow summer. I suspect that it would be easier on my stomach to set a price target and not constantly fret over each up and down. But I'll try the simulator before I jump...

  111. @sockeye

    You still around? Try

    I know the name is lanme but there is some good stuff there. Click on precious metals and then gold 1979-1984. If you print it at 200% landscape you can see it quite well.

  112. GUNS

    Swampfox makes a good point often overlooked. Rifles and high powered handguns can send rounds to places you don't want them to go. It always amazes me how many people seem ignorant of this. I would never buy a house that sits behind a highway sign, even if it's a mile away!

    Seriously, unless you plan on hunting or infantry combat in open country, the shotgun is your best home defense weapon.

    The comments on training children are right on. Don't skimp on that, it's what will keep them safe.

  113. Eric #1 must not be online tonight, yet to see him here, AND i was finally able to get a decent price bidding on Gold Eagles on the Bay! ;)
    Can't wait to get these old coin. gold I have to date is modern coin and bullion.

  114. Didn't read every post, but is anybody anticipating a nice little pop for AGQ tomorrow following the dreary jobs data? Makes sense that PMs would rise as a result of the data, but these days I don't know what is going to happen.

    I'm thinking in AGQ @ low 180s and then out after a 5-10% increase, just to play it safe. I'm done holding AGQ for more than 2-3 hours.

    @oldNavy re: GUNS

    I actually think the shotgun is a very POOR home defense weapon for most situations. Same with rifles. If you are protecting your castle and doing patrols, then perhaps those have merit, but for grabbing something in the middle of the night as you hear an intruder breaking in I'll stick with my Glock (or any handgun!). Small, easy to wield, holds enough rounds (and if it doesn't then I'm screwed).

  115. Gramp said:
    "Ahha Ginger, i know its a funny name for who i really am on here, but it started out of respect for an old fellow who helped me discover the Value of saving and holding real money.
    Has kinda stuck since it started even w/ my friends. :)"

    That's truly the sweetest thing I've heard today. I can totally respect that ...Also, I can totally relate.. I have always seemed to attract older friends ...even in my very early 20s. It has puzzled me that older folks gravitate to me and I to them. Strange ..but in a good way.

    Case in point: Tomorrow morning I have an appointment to take some 50th anniversary photos of a dear couple in their 70s. They have been my good close friends for 15 years (Their 50s and my early 30s). They call often and I visit often. ....I don't hang out with a gaggle of female friends like most women. Just my family and the old folks. :D

    G'night all. This old soul has to get some sleep so that I can meet with the young at heart bright and early!

  116. Treasury Continues To Dip Into Retirement Accounts, Prepares To "Take Out" $66 Billion Chunk To Make Room For New Bond Issuance

    Sleep well

  117. Dr G... I understand what you are saying in regards to having your Glock, but real life doesn't agree with you and I'm not trying to be an ass about it, it's just a fact. If what you said is correct, then every Army (and SWAT team) would breach and conduct CQB with hand guns instead of shotguns... but they don't.

    Here is the best quote I ever heard regarding shotguns vs. handguns inside a house/CQB and this was from a friend in the Australian SAS... "Every time you pull the trigger on the shotgun, out come NINE 9mm rounds."

    If you have a Glock with a 15 round mag and let's say you are a "15+1 guy," go see how long it takes you to empty those 16 rounds rapid fire... guess what? I can fire a shotgun twice in 2 seconds and I've already discharged 18 9mm rounds.

  118. Fortibras,

    I used to carry a little Stevens side by side 12 GA with 18" barrles when i went fishing. Everyone says "handgun in bear country" but until you have rubbed noses with a six hundred pound griz you don't know what you're talking about. They look like a fucking VW beetle up close and a 44 is a bit like bringing a knife to a gun fight :-).

    Shit - even the 12 GA feels small when an angry sow is pissed because you just stepped in between her and her cubs. A tank or light armoured vehicle with a 50 up top would be preferable...

  119. Swampfox... you were just a trivia question on the O'Reilly Factor!

    I haven't come face to face with a bear YET, but last Spring, I watched two burst from the tree line and take down an elk calf in the blink of an eye... I have used the Stoeger on hogs though.

  120. @ pasttense – Re: Response to PSLV question in previous thread.

    Thanks for the input. As Turd said, there’s reason we’re willing to pay the premium for PSLV. I’ll look into SIVR as well though. It has had a heck of a one year return. A main question I would have is does it more resemble PSLV, which is backed by silver, or SLV which is backed by creative accounting entries. Must do my homework…

    @ Pablo – Re: Guns

    First question would be why do you want a gun – protection against a perpetrator or protection from anarchy when the second revolution comes? For protection against a perp, if you’re not good with a gun or planning on taking firearms classes then you might be better off with a can of bear mace and a tactical flashlight. The bright light is blinding, and the mace has a range up to 30 feet. Most encounters are well inside of that range. (Wasp spray might get you in trouble with the Feds since you’d be dispensing it in an unintended manner).

    Guns: If I could only have one gun it would be a .22 rifle. A quality one should be dependable and the ammunition is cheap. And it takes a bit of shooting to become proficient.

    Shotgun – The sounds of chambering a shell in either a pump action or semi-auto are very unique. That’s usually enough to stop a perp in his tracks. Easy on the buckshot though. It will go right through a wall and take out your loved ones or a neighbor. Not a good thing. Hard to miss with a shotgun though.

    Handguns – Revolvers are very dependable, and that’s critical, but I like the higher capacity of semi autos. I have a very nice variety in my collection, but a rely of the Sig Sauer .40 magnum. Sig is one of the best.

    With kids in the house you gotta be extra careful. Trigger locks are recommended, but they aren’t your ally when a perp is busting in your door. I keep a couple magazines loaded, but not in or right near the handgun. Having a loaded clip “near” the handgun counts as being loaded. Kids get into things that we don’t realize. Think back to when you were a kid. Even though I’m well-armed, the first thing I’d reach for if I hear the boogey man during the night is the mace and the tactical light. Albeit… the Sig and pump action shotgun aren’t far behind.

  121. Apmex currently has a sale on sunshine silver rounds @ $.99 over spot in any quantity!

  122. @Pablo: re your quest for info about guns.

    You came to the right place.

    I am prepared. I am a former soldier. I am damn comfortable with firearms. My family, not so much. So there is a balance which must be struck. Also, I live in California, also known as the People's Republic of California. It is NOT gun friendly at all. My advice is given to you based on the assumption that you will only need to use a firearm when TSHTF. So . . .

    For home protection, let me say some basics. First thing to get, is a phone, and be sure to have it accessible to call 911. Seriously.

    Also remember, that when police show up, they may mistake YOU for the intruder or bad guy. When you make the 911 call, be sure to tell them that you are armed, and give a physical description. It may also be best to stay on the phone so that in the later civil trial, you can play the 911 tape as evidence that you did not willy nilly shoot the bad guy, but instead only did so because you were about to be shot yourself by the gun-weilding burglar. Seriously.

    Now that I have your attention. For the gun(s), be aware that if you discharge a gun inside your home, even if lawfully done, the projectile may penetrate beyond the structure and then do harm to others outside. You will be in deep shit. For real.

    Ok, let's talk guns.

    You asked: "What do we need and what can I get by with?"

    Too broad to answer, but, here is what I do.

    I have four gun safes. One in my office, one in the bedroom, one in a secure location near the front door, one in a secure location on the ground floor. All of the gun safes are touch pad, with a combo that only me and the wife know.

    Inside the gun safes inside the house are the following, which are fully locked and loaded:

    two .357 Smith and Wesson revolver with Crimson Trace laser sight, one large frame, one small frame (for wifey);
    .40 Glock;
    .45 M1911 with Crimson Trace laser sight;
    Beretta 9mm.

    By the door: 9 mm Glock.

    Ground floor: Benelli M4 shotgun; Beretta .380; AR-15; Mossberg riot shotgun.

    I also have SureFire flashlights in each room, two in bedroom.

    Plan is to call 911, then grab nearest gun and flashlight, then wait for calvary to arrive. If bad guy makes it upstairs, there will be an expensive cleaning bill for all the blood and guts which will be splattered after I empty my weapon(s). I will let the jury figure out the ramifications.

    I also highly recommend that you not purchase anything until you take a basic gun safety class. At the class, talk to the instructors. Read the literature. You will find that there are many suitable options, all of which are just fine. Key point is to be aware, competent, and safe. A gun is just a tool. It must be owned and possessed and used only by one who has knowledge.

    You can tell I like guns. But, please do ready yourself before you buy one.

  123. LevelHeaded said...

    You still there


    Thanks for the suggestion. I will try the charts. although I hope to find some back to about 1971 when things started. or mid or early 1970's. not sure when it all started. I know they took the country off the silver in 1971.

    What an idiot I was. I thought gold and silver were so cheap they were not worth saving up. haha. I also thought it was better to make money on the job and let the wife spend it all before I got the check.

  124. @ferretflat

    Yum, Hampex bacon rounds on sale!

    OK, enough silliness, you boys and your high velocity toys have a good night.

  125. Guns are just part and parcel of the lifestyle here in my part of the southeast. I grew up with them and my kids have, too. You have gotten some very good advice tonight, Pablo. Now get with it and make sure you get some training for everyones sake. No gun will help you if you don't know how to use it and as my daddy always said " don't pull it if you are not ready to use it, honey.". Good luck and God bless your family.

  126. @sockeye
    They have a ton of charts, all dates. You will be pleased I think.

  127. just fell a bit more. 35.85... :/

  128. $45-$50 by December? My thought is that things are about to move much quicker these next 6-12 months. We are starting to see the economy stall in the face of huge government budget deficits (stimulus) at the state and federal level that was supposed to prevent that and now limits, if not prevents, any more "stimulus"; an extreme fed balance sheet that could prevent them from responding rapidly; ZIRP that has been in place for so long (3 yrs) no one even mentions it anymore; massive money printing(QE1-2).

    QE3 will not be as orderly to unfold as the other 2. Things are about to accelerate which I believe pushes silver to new highs much sooner. Add in a COMEX default and that will just make the move exponential.

  129. Would any of you recommend the Sunshine rounds that APMEX have on sale at .99 cents over spot?


  130. Pablo

    You sure know how to get a conversation started. Lots of seasoned shooters here. I'll throw in my .02.

    To start with, my suggestion would be a .22 caliber. You need to practice, practice, practice. High caliber ammo is expensive, you can buy thousands of .22 rounds vs. a few hundred of the higher caliber. Training at a range is a good idea.

    As for the gun, a Ruger 10/22 is a good rifle. It's not expensive and your nearest pawn shop probably has a used one. It is a semi-auto (each finger squeeze fires one round). It is a carbine, meaning it has a short stock and barrel, much more compact than a shotgun or hunting rifle. The clip holds ten rounds. The clip is small and can be stored in a hidden place near the gun. Once you have reached a comfort level with shooting, then try a pistol.

    If your kids are old enough, see if there is an NRA youth training program in your area. When the safety aspect is drilled into them from the get go, shooting can develop into a fun family activity and you will be more at ease.

  131. Morning all. Well the Asians didn't help much now the Indians are dragging it down.

    Not looking good for the London open.


  132. forget guns if you are not completely familiar with their use...when the shtf you will have it stuffed up your azz...or worse you'll be shot with it.....If you are proficient then you don't need advice on your choice of weapons....I have used every weapon legal to citizens and a good sentry dog or alarm system is a must. Their are multiple ways a home intruder can take you down so gl.....

  133. Is a taser gun an acceptable form of protection?

  134. As a wise old man once said. " the only gun you will ever need, is found between your legs"


  135. overnight lower is good in my book.
    means dollar is rallying.
    more room to fall in the am.
    last night was the reverse, and dollar rallied in the day, crushing metals.
    when the dollar falls overnight and the metals don't go up, then it's time to worry.

  136. The Circle of (Wall Street) Life

    Lies passed on to the next generation. Watch if you have the stomach.. the last minute is particularly painful, full of faux-patriotism and wealth worship.

  137. @All

    This BLSBS should be a positive surprise. McDonald's will have their 50k new hires in this report. So be careful betting against it.


  138. @ cookie, for a change I hope you're right!

    Still long, avg 37.5 so feelin a bit of pain. Might avg down if it goes below 35.

    Stop losses in place for the trip down.

    Crappy birthday to me!

  139. Been drifting down overnight, anyone got an idea what the bottom might be at this point? I don't want to blow my stop if it's going to shoot back up again.

    I found out that Germany had a bank holiday yesterday. Not sure if this would have affected yesterday's trade.

  140. We will get a better picture come June 21-22, FOMC meeting by the Fed. In the mean time, tread lightly in silver market.

  141. It's hilarious to see all this gun talk. Any Europeans following this blog must be thinking that Americans are f*cking crazy. Very funny.

    Me? 1911, Mossberg semi-auto, Saiga 7.62mm semi-auto, Remington 700. Sufficient ammo.
    (Plus a generous assortment of surplus small arms. The usual suspects).

    Sorry. I couldn't resist.

  142. Overnight action has same driftless feeling as night before - ugh.
    Trying to ignore all the gun talk. To each his own, but I doubt Gabbie Gifford thinks that way.

  143. Gday
    Does anyone remember which turd post which withheld the turd "dictionairy", with all the abbreviations and acronyms ?!


  144. You guys may feel a (false) sense of security by going to bed with a gun under your pillow, but the reality is that all too often guns kill the wrong people. Let's stick to PMs please, lest I be tempted to go off on our (lack of) gun laws in this country. We are an outlier compared to most of the civilized world.

  145. Feels good to be sitting on a Bull 4x cert @ 37.5 atm ^^ (no not so much)

    Btw we should somehow make a list of days that we think are likely to be EE raid days. That way we could atleast be generally more careful those days. I was caught by surprise once again by this :S

  146. Re: guns -

    I have small children and guns as well. My Smith & Wesson M&P 40 is the ready gun, in a small touch pad safe loaded with hollow points. I agree with Fortinbras, especially with the freakin' practice part. When TSHTF, you don't have the mental capacity to figure out how to operate machinery. You have to already be proficient so that it's use is as intuitive to you as pointing the curor with your mouse.

    Titus, not to sound combative, but I am totally comfortable with any such Euros thinging I'm bonkers. :)

    As for the other general topic of this site, I am seriously considering dumping some of my core miners to be higher in cash for a possible pause in QEx. But I also have an open order for AGQ at 160 incase there is another artificial dip that I can ride a rebound with. I haven't had the balls to short AGQ on these down dips though. I would need to be watching minute by minute for that kind of action. The AGQ I have I will be following Turd's plan with using some closely set stops probably adjusted on a daily basis. Cheers, and thanks to all for your well laid out opinions / strategies.

  147. Be prepared for the unexpected.

  148. @knasten --

    But if you put the following terms into Google, you get the same result:

    turd ferguson glossary

  149. Looks like 35,4 is the bottom for today if we're lucky?

  150. What a drop in Silver nearly $ 1 in matter of minutes!!!!!!

  151. @Mikael
    good point, however I can't imagine the EE is also reading this blog and creating as much confusion as possible.

    How can one anticipate on a Comex default? Does that mean that your future-options, cfd's etc. go to zero dollars overnight?
    As for gold trades, does that mean the same or is it more likely that gold will shoot up?

  152. I meant: I can't imagine the EE is not reading this blog

  153. Dear Turd
    One thing I wouldn't buy and that is a Silver Keiser.
    When people come to sell them dealers will probably just laugh at them and give them half the value.
    I can imagine there is a little factory in China now starting to make fake Silver Keisers to sell to the gullible.
    Stick to properly minted coins.

  154. @intuitiveanalyst,
    I'm cool with it too. I just think it is very funny. Big culture gap, for the most part.

  155. @Bikerchick

    Yeah, that's what we need, more gun laws. That way we'll finally get the guns out of the hands of the criminals, as well as the law abiding citizens. /extreme sarcasm

  156. Gramp

    I guess I heard someone call my name!

    Congratulations on snagging some old gold! I think you are going to like it. I know I do. Just seems to me like the old stuff has more character to it. I like to think about the history of that time and place, where that coin might have been. I like some wear on them. I like to think they've slid across the bar a few times, paid for a lady's favors a few times, that sort of thing, ha ha.

    The new stuff that looks like it was just punched off the line yesterday just leaves me cold. But, to each their own. Enjoy!

  157. @Thias , when you say "for today" you do realise the Americans arent even up yet..

    We've got another 12 hours of roller coaster riding. Or Free Falling...

    @ Lot of ur, I don't expect to make money.... I'm prepared for that!

  158. Where's JoeKa this morning?!

    Climbing back towards 36.. reckon we might go over for a bit before the yanks get out of bed and slap it back down again...

    Not expecting much of a rise today, support within the 35's would be damage limitation and then hope the Asians pull it back up on Sunday night!

    All non science / TA / experience based info.. but then that seems as good as anyones!

  159. @NCOT
    Uh uh. I'm pretty sure we've got Asian holidays again this weekend or early next week. Can somebody please confirm?

    I'm also concerned with how low we went overnight (silver) into 35. Sure that move blew some stops, but again where are the buyers? I'm still flat except for a bit of gold, but if I wasn't, I'd be looking to get flat before the weekend. Easy to say when you're not carrying a loss position, so I'm sorry for those of you that are. Keep in mind that a small loss can become a very big loss though fast enough. On the other hand, we're fast getting to territory where there should be some solid buying unless silver is suddenly completely uninteresting to BOS. Which I doubt. 32/33/34 should be supported to greater degrees as the price dips, if it continues to do so.

    If you're in pain right now from the high 30s, in the future, PLEASE look at longer charts and keep an eye on where the bottom Bollinger band is. Low 30s has been a staple of the 8hr silver life since we broke down on May 1. Mid 20s on the weekly, Low 20s on the monthly. Not saying it's going to happen, but those are the only "sure thing" BOS targets to buy on when the trend and season are both lousy.

  160. NCOT, i try to think positive, but maybe i should be realistic instead :/

  161. @Pailin

    I had some stops triggered this morning at 35.40's then typically it bounced up to 36 in no time!

    It lightened me up a bit.. its averaged me up but with a lower stake

    I agree, last night did not look good and so far this morning isn't looking great.

    See what happens after the jobs report...

  162. Here we go....

    Gold just dipped below 1530...

    Not sure 35.50's gonna hold...

  163. @Pablo...

    Fortinbras is 100% correct in his assessment of firearms.

    Now, you don't know me, I don't know you, but I will tell you this as someone that did 20+ years in the Corps as an Infantryman. A shotgun is the single best utilitarian weapon available for personal defense and can put food on the table.

    But... always at least one but... you have to learn to use it. And one more caveat, you have to understand the consequences! Everything you have been conditioned for up to that point is that it is wrong to take human life, and in many circumstances ANY life. The minute you wield that weapon, the fight escalates, the second that you pull the trigger, it is a live or die scenario. The moment that you kill someone, it is forever. Having served several tours as a Marine sniper, I can tell you this as can any combat vet, many never recover from that moment. Over the years I have seen men that couldn't pull the trigger, those that did and regretted it, and those that did and relished the moment. You need to do your own personal assessment at this stage as to where you fit in there. Remember, in a SHTF scenario, there may not be law-enforcement on the way. If money is no good, why would they risk anything for nothing?

    Make your own honest personal assessment as to where you stand on these issues and how far you are can go under adverse conditions. You may have a family member that already has all the prerequisite training and experience needed for surviving some of the ugly possibilities on the drawing board. Might be best to reach out to that person and open a dialogue. During the Great Depression, multiple families lived in a single home out of necessity. In an economic collapse, we would / could see that again. That family member may fit your needs as you may be able to help them.


    Heard that somewhere before....

    Just my .02

  164. @Pailin Reuters does say there are holidays in China, HOng Kong and New Zealand but no mention of markets closed...

    I'll keep looking..

  165. @Thias, I've been trying to be positive.. gets more difficult the more it drops and there's not clear support.

    Just when you think its found support, it goes lower... hey ho...

    The fact that these drops have been dragged out over few days gives me a bit more hope even though its more painful!

  166. Kaboom!

    There's no support!!!

  167. I got feeling today this site will either be quiet or people posting 'told you so' comments..

  168. Hello everyone. Sorry for being AWOL today.
    I'll keep this brief.

    If you're LONG silver, you either better have a comfortable stop loss or have deep account flush with margin bec if the ADP/BLBBS data comes in even 5% less than forecast, Silver will run for 33 like a bad habit.

    If data is as forecast or slightly over, there MAY be a rally and it MAY regain 37s again...but consider these facts. Nothing is as it has been for Silver since the May massacre. It has suddenly decided to embrace its industrial usage more than its monetary usage.

    Even with the POSX making several dead cat bounces, EURUSD strength, Gold strength, Silver is STILL being sold off or tangoing sideways. Therefore there is A LOT of weakness in Silver right now...and I'd rather stay out, cut losses and live to fight another day.

    Sorry this post dragged on. I'm only being open and honest about my assessment. I hate to sound like a harbinger of bad news.

    I remain as always a humble and still learning Turdite and will help where I can.

    Have a great day my friends.

    JoeKa out.

  169. Hey JoeKa was worried about you...

    yeh doesn't look good. Still a couple of hours til those figures..

    Probably be a small bounce before then... well WTFK!

    Mixed day so far today.. my birthday, we had a 22 week scan for the baby and all is good, so things to be happy about... while we were in there Silver was dropping like a mofo.

  170. Yeah i cut my losses, it's no good feeling spreading in your body when it plunges like that. Considering Asia is closed on monday could also mean may 1st all over again, and i don't want to take any chances. I've still made some money in may, despite the huge crash so i have to be glad for staying on the green side.

    Reading the news there are some premilinary numbers about the USA job situation, the premliminary numbers are that the employment has increased by 165.000, we'll see in 2 hours..

  171. omg, i CAN spell preliminary, just so you guys know.

  172. That Keiser looks like Nixon....

    Great site man, love it.

  173. Didn't someone say that whenever everyone is screaming 'sell' you buy?!

  174. An interesting day shaping up. Agree with those that say be very careful, as markets look so shaky. WTI, silver and gold (all my favorites!) taking a beating thus far.

    Interesting to note s&ps not off HUGE thus far and bonds have not topped yesterday's high. Wouldn't hang much hope on that, but interesting to watch with respect to what's already priced in.

    Am relatively confident that whatever the jobs number is, it will be full of bullshit.

    Hearing licks from "Gimme Shelter" in my head...

  175. NCOT, happy birthday my friend. Many happy returns.
    Also again, glad to hear baby is ok.

    My greets to the baby and wifey from sunny (but now wet!) Singapore. :)

    @Thias: I know the feeling. Thats ur gut telling you something.

  176. NCOT said...
    Didn't someone say that whenever everyone is screaming 'sell' you buy?!


    Unfortunately Algos don't believe in trite axioms.

  177. @Joeka
    yeah and consider i dreamt last night that i lost all my money on a massive waterfall in silver, im out! :D

  178. @DE: I posted a dedication of Gimme Shelter to atlee two days ago. Here it is again. Enjoy buddy! I gotta run now for band practice. See y'all.

  179. I'm pretty much close to closing....

    @JoeKa, thanks for the wishes.. just wish I could have some better news for her.

    I just know if I short Silver it will go up!

  180. As there are 2 sides to everything...

    Does anyone have any positive news on silver?!

  181. Thanks JoeKa! Have it bookmarked from then.

    Enjoy practice and say hi to Mick and Keith for me!

  182. Monday seems to be only a Hong Kong holiday

  183. haha I feel the same way about shorting. One thing's for sure, I will wait for raids as much as possible from now on. You never make more money than when there's blood in the streets, like the big boys like to say.

    People panic sell and have their stop losses set off, we all know that's part of the Cartel's intent. They got all the data collection in the world to figure out the domino effect.

    Take profits, stack physical, wait for next raid. Repeat Cycle.

    Easier said than done. I never give up though. Always up for a challenge.

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  186. Those Sunshine rounds for $1 over spot from APMEX seem pretty good, but man their shipping is a joke.

    Love to see a nice big pullback in gold before the world sees how it's the sale of a lifetime and buys it up like it's their job. I don't know if Turk's $8000 target will be hit in a few years; but I do know the likelihood of POSX confetti is greater. I have a last of 74.30. It's been real, time to go bye bye....

  187. Morning All!

    I'm with JoeKa on this... I'm long term bullish, but right now silver is in a downtrend (just look at the chart for the last 5 days), and we don't know the bottom. And as I found out yesterday, trying to do a bullish trade into a bearish trend is a wonderful way to lose lots of $.

    Dow futures are down 53 points, NASDAQ 12, S&P down 5.. looks like a down day on the market. And it doesn't automatically mean silver will go up. IMHO in a general sell off the PMs could go down, and especially the miners could sell off as well.

    Be careful out there!

  188. @Thias, or as someone else pointed out, maybe this is already priced in.

    The numbers come out as expected or better, then everything goes up... but still to lower than it was earlier..

    IF that even happens, then what next week? Carry on dropping? Is the bottom really in?

    I'm concerned that Turd has not mentioned his forecast now for the outlook for June. Realistically, I doubt we'll see 40 this month.

    Would be nice to test 39 again but I think that will need a 'special event'

  189. From "Reports that protesters have taken over Greece's finance ministry building has failed to factor at all into price action."

    You know, that's the way it goes. These douchebags in government get to fuck up for only so long until somebody takes over a fucking building and TSHTF!

    I'm sure the Germans are just loving this...

  190. @NCOT
    Yeah i read it all wrong so i deleted my post to not confuse anyone. Numbers in april was 244.000. Numbers in may is as it looks like, 165.000. So worse then april but in a positive correction, however, let's see if the market thinks it's positive or negative. As you said, it could be priced in. Exciting, it's like a movie you that you cannot guess the ending.

  191. @DE, whats German for "We told you so"?

  192. @Thias, yeah I know, but I don't bet on how a movie is going to end....