Friday, June 10, 2011

Our Primate Picassos

If you ever wanted to save a chart for posterity, here is one for you. A perfect, three-stage Cartel raid of the gold Comex.
With nearly infinite, Fed-supplied, taxpayer cash at their disposal, The Cartel can simply overwhelm the public bid whenever they desire. They can't and don't do this everyday as blatant, daily manipulation would draw too much heat and leave them with too sizable of a short position. However, when an operation is needed to clip price or paint a chart, you can bet that The Wicked Witch will spring the monkeys from their cages and send them forth to inflict pain and suffering.

So, what did today's mission accomplish? Take a look at this 4-hour chart:
All that work over the past week suppressing price under 1550 has painted a nearly perfect, head-and-shoulders top on this chart. After waffling a bit yesterday, it is quite clear to me now that gold will be contained by the EE through the summer, in a range from roughly 1460-1550.

Silver still has the potential to break free of its current shackles and run to 42 or 43 by the end of the month but time is, unfortunately, running out. It is still within its pennant formation and may present a buying opportunity around 36 but anyone buying there must have a pretty tight stop. While a break of the pennant to the UPside would indicate a run to 39, 39.50 and even 42, a break to the downside could take it all of the way down to 33. Yikes.

Keep checking back today as we are in the final stages of preparing the new site and I hope to have it ready later on. It's a great new playground for us. Not the fanciest thing ever created but it will widen our conversations and provide some fun, new wrinkles, too.

Hang in there today. TF

10:55 EDT UPDATE:
I figured some of you might be looking for a crude update.

File these two away for posterity, too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/german-rating-agency-feri-downgrades-us-government-bonds-aaa-aa
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-ratings-house-says-us-defaulting-report-054309883.html

256 comments:

  1. Thanks Turd..
    good work.. lets hope silver breaks to the up!

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  2. "JoeKa | GREENBOY said...
    Pailin said:
    Three nights in a row, no love from Asia overnight.

    --------------

    FYI, physical demand from Asia is slowing down now due to seasonal issues."


    So again on this issue:

    We have about 700mio oz of yearly mining production. Let's say half of that, 350mio oz, is traded on the market (most industrial users get their metal directly from the mines via various agreements). Let's say half of that is traded on the Asian market. So we're at 175mio oz. About 250 trading days per year, so we're at let's say 0,7mio oz traded per day on the Asian market.

    We have about 50000-100000 contracts typical average volume on the Futures market. Let's say 5000-10000 of that is traded on the GLOBEX during Asian market time. So we have 25-50mio oz traded daily on the GLOBEX during Asian market time.

    Do the rest of the logic yourself.

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  3. Pretty shitty day for anyone with a miner in the portfolio. I'm dumping more. Right on cue at the lows. Must be done. Getting a little sick of this.

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  4. The EE isn't going quietly, that's for sure.

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  5. Took off my sells. Going to wait and see here. GDX at 53 is going to have to fight it out before I sell more at a loss. Along with 12000 DJIA.

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  6. Somebody posted this article on the last thread.

    After reading it, I was thinking about opening up a Canadian based bank account. I use RBC in the US, so I can do it quickly and transfer funds out of the US.

    If you do this, just make sure you tell the Treasury once a year, otherwise I think the penalty is 20% of the total funds. What a crazy world we live in.

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie060811.html

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  7. Thanks Turd - Looking forward to 'new playground' =D

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  8. The London Fix (11AM est) will be telling. If we are below 1524, I wouldn't take it as a good sign. However, if we can hang on to higher lows through this notorious time of pressure, there is a chance this still is just noise.

    Equity markets looking brutal again (to whose surprise), and the $HUI looks to be puking again. Definitely not "friendly waters."

    Tread safely

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  9. This may be over-projecting on my part, but I found it interesting that the gold (& silver) raid this morning was 8:26-9:15 AM EDT. The POSX rose, but (relatively) modestly by 0.09. Then, AFTER the PM raids, the POSX lifts off beginning @ 9:32-ish, and plows up 0.30 in about half an hour. No doubt countless other factors simultaneously affect both PM prices and the USDX, but all other things being equal, shouldn't PM pricing drop AS or AFTER POSX goes up? Or is the POSX trailing behind gold price movements a possible indicator that the dog is finally beginnning to wag the tail?

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  10. @SSK, I've lernt theres a difference between FUBM and the EE just giving you false hope!

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  11. It wouldn't hurt if we had more lube on silver..

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  12. David Tepper says no QE 3 until S&P falls several hundred points: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tepper-agrees-zero-hedge-sees-qe3-only-if-sp-falls-several-hundred-points

    This suggests several things:

    1) PMs aren't a great play for a while. This squares well with what TF has said about the summer.

    2) Shorting the stock market is a good place to make fiat, esp. using a negative leveraged ETF like TZA, or options on unlevered ETFs, or calls on things like TZA.

    3) The best time to buy PMs (or paper on PMs) will be immediately after QE 3 is announced (since none of us has a crystal ball that'll work to predict QE 3's announcement date, not even TF).

    Comments, anyone?

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  13. I totally understand how short term traders need to be careful in here, but if you've got any kind of longer term outlook (6 months plus, ish), and not overleveraged, I think you can be a fearless buyer of metals and miners right here, right now. Certainly not a pukey panicked seller. JMHO :)

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  14. Raids don't normally end in V shaped recoveries. Double bottoms are pretty common signs of a bounce up coming. In gold it may look like we have that right now. Silver is in another world of it's own, I would just be concerned about gold right now, as it is the thing on the cartel's mind, not silver (right now).

    We must make higher highs in the new trend. And watch London's close (and the subsequent ~15 minutes)... it should give us big clues.

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  15. Paul - I keep waiting for another opportunity to go short off of some sort of meaningful bounce but there havent really been any. that one last pop by the markets threw me a curve ball and i missed that one last great opportunity to throw on some heavy puts before the landslide started.

    Thought about hedging with some silver puts back near 37$. I have very low hopes that silver will scramble and break upwards here. Im not a seasoned trader like some of you folks are though.

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  16. I don't think it's that nefarious. It's just a risk-off day (David Tepper duly trotted out to announce it, and make it official...), so we're getting a sell-off. Yes, the waterfall was a coordinated dump, but IMO their only power is to act as a "fuse", or a catalyst, if you will. This was paired with very strong dollar buying, and voila--instacrash!

    Now, as I write at 10:25 EST, gold is already coming back, and those that had bargain bids have been filled, and are in the black. I think gold has behaved VERY well against an absolute dollar buying panic, and I think 1550 IS getting ready to fall. It isn't some mysterious Illuminati number--it's just an area of significant resistance. Fade it if you want to, but you'll be going the wrong way. Just my 2...

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  17. NCOT,

    Point well taken. I'm looking for temporary rebounds as a chance to sell. I'd like to cut to the core holdings. This is a sucker's market.

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  18. TRE (soon to be TRX) is just begging me to click the buy button

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  19. Eur/Usd moving down some more, expect some pressure while it moves down...

    (And the POSX moves up)

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  20. Here's a little gold article I just saw, though there's nothing in there that would be new to intrepid Turdlings.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/274011-6-reasons-to-keep-holding-gold-through-an-uncertain-summer

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  21. Friends,

    I think we're going higher over the summer. TF thinks we are going sideways/lower. That's ok, I suspect we're closer in our thinking than that would appear.

    Anyway, what I want to say is we are here because "The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly".

    If you are a unleveraged investor, physical only investor, small investor, new investor, or unsophisticated investor please don't get overly worked up about about a few months action. I suggest you just hunker down and don't sell and certainly DON'T SHORT. If you fit the above criteria please don't risk losing money if the metals rise when you believe they will be higher in 6 months and much higher in 18 months.

    If I'm right about the summer then you will make money. If TF is right (and he may be) then you will not lose that much 10-20% maybe. Either is an acceptable outcome.

    If you are inexperienced, please don't get chopped up in the short term so you can't "win" in the long term. If you are inexperienced you should also get off margin.

    My guess is TF will agree with me.

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  22. I think Tepper and others like Faber have it right. There is too much resistance to QE3 so it will be withheld and the markets will act accordingly. I expect the summer to be largely in the red. Then, when sentiment changes, the Fed will save the day with some form of QE3-like action. With the spigot turned off, the economy will again try to do what it has been trying to do for years now, which is to deflate and send this country into outright recession/depression.

    Obviously, those of us who come to this board all probably share the same sentiment as myself. The Fed and Friends won't let this fully play out. They will intervene and stimulate, and the obvious end game of that is a disaster of the currency through inflation. In the near-term, I'm sitting cash and shorts on the market. I will buy my miners and other "risk" positions at a nice discount incrementally in the coming weeks/months and be well positioned for when Bernanke opens the flood gates again.

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  23. EXK at 8
    SLW at 32
    HL at 7
    GPL at 2.65

    Good prices for sure. But they were good prices at 9, 36, 8, and 3 too.If you have cash and some stones, yeah, cost average in. Set tight stops and expect to get stopped. Because we could see 6, 28, 5, and 2 easily enough.

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  24. CHINA claims the US is already defaulting:
    WOW And GOLD is down?

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  25. Why PM's are dropping.

    1. Summer seasonal doldrums.

    2. QE2 is ending. Of course its a lie.

    3. Euro is weak. Greek debt debacle.

    4. JPM needs to cover their shorts.

    5. Blatant manipulation to keep the dollar looking strong when it is worthless.

    6. Keeping the totally false and irrational idea that the markets and currencies are all correlated, and keep them in line with the false perception that they are inextricably linked and interdependent globally.

    7. ??? Can anyone help here by adding other relevant factors?

    The real fundamentals say that the PM's should be where the stupid dollar is at this point in time, going up not down.
    Regardless what the markets are doing, gold and silver should be rising independent of oil, stocks, bonds,or anything else rising or falling. This is why this whole thing is a total fantasy world, where up is down, black is white, right is left, and good is evil. We live in a totally insane world where reason and reality have no relevance.

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  26. LevelHeaded - Nicely said friend =]

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  27. Doesn't Bernanke risk falling into a deflationary spiral if he waits too long to announce QE3? Seems to me he is playing with a financial neutron bomb. Could it be that if he waits too long we will fall into a hard core depression from which no amount of QE can save us?

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  28. Here's an interesting article on why leveraged ETF's don't always work out as planned.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/273590-taking-a-closer-look-at-leveraged-etfs

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  29. Great advise Level. Precisely the kind of reasoned analysis that is need in times like these. Thanks!

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  30. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/risk-free-precious-metals-arbitrage

    Still worried about gold?

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  31. @tesla, ben
    Thanks for the kind words.

    @TF
    Thanks for providing this forum, I feel like I'm helping others and it feels good. I've been out for myself in these markets for too long, being part of this community is much better. Thank you also for your sound analysis.

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  32. Tyler posted a snapshot showing the bid in Hong Kong $5 above the ask on Comex.

    Risk Free Precious Metals Arbitrage?

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  33. Cripes, what a morning-

    Bought some DUST first thing to play the miner decline, but then my brokerage (USAA) wouldn't let me set a stop.....WTF! So I had to babysit it second by second for an hour, and finally sold it off for a small profit.

    All I can figure is because the stock has such low volume, they can't honor a stop order.

    Anybody had this happen? Any solution?

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  34. @Level, I'm inexperienced, and I agree with you!!

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  35. FOAGQ. I went heavy on ZSL yesterday but even so pulled the trigger too soon and missed the best. Unloaded about half so far and picked up some AGQ at the bottom.

    If silver goes lower than it has so far today I sell more ZSL. If it hits $36.25 I'll buy more AGQ.

    Will sell the AGQ I bought today if silver hits any higher than it has so far.

    Pailin you described the range I'm trading in in the last thread. I look at the trades as about weekly in length. eg last week and this week saw about the same movement to me as a trader, just different days of the week.

    Regarding 2X leveraged ETF's. I've been reading a lot on Zero Hedge and elsewhere about how the decay should work (eg bite the trader who holds overnight). I must say my real world experience in this choppy market DOESN'T match their theory. Perhaps it is because I am trading a different ETF than they use (I'm in Canada). Over a week like we've just seen the silver 2X ETF's have lost less than 1%. With rounding it barely rounds up to a loss of 0.05%.
    Not much pain there for me and nowhere near the numbers ZH and others are posting. Anyone else have data from Real Life to share?

    PS. Still long silver and gold. This post is all short term thinking.

    PPS @ Level. Right on with your comments about physical and not letting daily/weekly noise force a sell.

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  36. Hey Level,

    I am beginning to like your persistence despite constant criticism.

    ;)

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  37. EA- Thanks for the article! (US already defaulting)

    All - do you think China is lobbing one over as another warning or do you believe this is possibly factual?

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  38. @ben.roberts13

    We already got to that point years ago. The whole point is no amount of quantitative easing can save us, yet we will do it until the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment is recorded as such in the history books (whenever a new history book gets printed, hopefully on recycled FRN's for posterity). Prepare accordingly.

    The point of QE was not to actually attempt recovery. That should look pretty obvious just by following the money. Credit to consumers and businesses never happened. The money was spent on bags of MOPE.

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  39. @ CD and all

    This from Ed Steer's column today:
    If you're getting the impression that the gold price is mostly independent of what the dollar is doing...unless 'da boyz' make it so...you would be right about that. These guys know how to paint a chart. As Ted Butler has been telling me for years, the dollar/gold ratio is mostly a myth. As Chris Powell says..."There are no markets anymore, only interventions."

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  40. @LaMachinna - of course it's factual. But seeing as there isn't much else that China can do beyond what they're doing - slowly divesting of UST, buying up every resource, farmland, commodity, mine, infrastructure they can get their hands on while POS is still worth something, I am puzzled as to why they would ANNOUNCE this fact, telegraphing it with increased frequency in the last few days.

    My best guess is to goad the US into steps that would (temporarily) "strengthen" the POSX, so they can continue to buy up stuff. Such as what we saw earlier today.

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  41. Wow, new site today…nice.

    Speaking of Gold’s summer range..

    Here are the charts of summer gold trend from 2001 – 2011:

    http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/06/09/seasonal-gold-charts-2001-2010/

    MV

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  42. Eric #1. I didn't see your post when I was typing mine (in notepad).

    Seekingalpha and Zero Hedge are credible sites. It boggles my mind that my real life experience thru the last month even which has been extemely choppy doesn't match what they are posting.

    The only explanation I can come up with is that it depends on the particular ETF. The two I trade are on the TSX, have different fund owners than the ones used in the articles.

    Atlee first put me on to this way back in March or so....had owned 2X ETF's for months and at my request posted his data which showed a return close to 2X over a 7 month period. Sure it was a mostly bull market and that's the rationale I put to it.

    Since then though....well...I have my own data and it's a LOT closer to 2X than 1X or even the negative return ZH and Seekingalpha say it would be.

    Where's KD? I need him to stir me up and make me post my results to prove him wrong lol

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  43. From CNBS. A crap spew about Goldman Sucks from the aptly named, integrity-laden Dick Bove. So you should never forget, GS are the victims here.

    Is the extra r for added emphasis?

    'A Terrrible Wrong' Done to Goldman Sachs
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43353537

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  44. CD:

    A thought (prob obvious to all here) re above post: China has the power to DESTROY the US economy by simply rushing for the exit with the dollar right?

    Maybe not a good thing for collecting on their loan but are they not sort of looking to make theirs be the new world reserve currency?

    If they wait until they have unloaded most of this debt - they lose the most powerful anti US dollar weapon they have...

    If they prod us into a short period of 'austerity' right before they clobber our economy it would be a smart play... and they know like we know that greater $ devaluation is on the way. Additional injections of liquidity are inevitable in the US.

    Heck a sell off in precious metals due to lack of recent participation would also benefit them in executing this play if they plan to buy something they want in that rush for the exit...

    I'm probably too pessimistic about the end of the dollar - but possible?

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  45. @happy
    RE:degradation of 2x, 3x funds.

    The issue isn't a metals centric one. It's only a matematical problem that creates degredation. It is siniliar to the issue of "if I take a 33% loss on a stock, then I have to make a 50% gain just to get back to even."

    Lets say you own AGQ (any double fund really since it's just a math problem) and it is trading for 100. Silver goes down 10% in one day. AGQ will go down 20% to 80. Ok so now if silver goes back up 11% and gets back to even, where does AGQ go to? 11%*2+1=1.22*80= 97.60

    That's a huge difference and only compounds over time.

    Borrowing from ZH: on a long enough time horizon the eventual price of leveraged funds drops to zero.

    In the short run in a trending market they are great.

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  46. @CD
    Good observation. Find the water that moves the sands. Often the unseen hand is not from the computers in NY but further east. Waaaaaay further east.

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  47. @level

    Clearest explanation of AGQ so far. Thanks.

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  48. Eur/Usd approaching initial resistance at ~1.4337 and then more at 1.430. With short covering in gold and silver going into the london close, you can expect the fresh shorts that took us down were covered before too much real buying could occur.

    Still have higher lows in gold and in silver. I like gold's higher lows better than silver's. See where the day leads us...

    Anything suppose to happen with the treasury budget later today? I really feel like there has to be some piece of gold-friendly news coming... and they are capping it until the news comes out.

    --
    P.S. --> It is annoying to hear about "flash crash" of 5% in the stock market when my portfolio is suspecitble to double that volatility through the sell-side algorithm special that runs rampid through easily manipulated mining stocks (screw you ETFs).

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  49. Enjoy you discounts complements of the game. Should you buy today? Hmmmmmmmm..... I have a core I added a small EGO.....I won't do any serious buys to my core unless $HUI hits 495 or takes out the 200ma

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  50. kind of pissed I put in short orders for the Dow and SPX last night and found out I was not authorized to trade them - they are fixing it for me this morning but I missed a good way to hedge my PM losses

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  51. I wonder where Waffen is today, he said he went short yesterday?!

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  52. Wow, first it was Greenspan who said he was "scared" now this guy.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/former-bailout-inspector-general-neil-barofsky-you-should-be-scared-im-scared-you-cant-not-b

    I like the summer silver charts somebody posted. Why not do a Turd and white out 2008, and draw in a collapse of the US dollar this summer.

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  53. @ Level. I totally understand the theory.

    I guess I should just be thrilled that I'm beating the theory and not ask why theory doesn't equal practice.

    Just did a quick math check. My 2X leveraged down has lost less than 1.5% in the past 3 weeks. My 2X leveraged up lost less than 1%.

    Yes on a long enough timeline.....

    Not as short a timeline as those articles suggest given this "ideal for degradation" market and there isn't a premium up front and there isn't an expiry date. Wait a minute. Expiry date? Brings Zero a lot closer doesn't it?

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  54. Paul W - I agree with your overall thought process and am also using TZA as my vehicle to short the market while waiting out silver and gold. Larger dividend paying "defensive" companies will probably hold up somewhat better (relatively speaking) as the current pullback turns into something bigger. In this environment, I expect the smaller Russell 2000 companies to get proportionally harder.

    Similar to what I was previously doing with AGQ in the "glory days" of April, just buying more TZA everyday, backing up with reasonable stops to ride out days like yesterday, and moving the stops up on days like today.

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  55. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  56. @Happy
    no biggie. I have no idea what ZH or SA said about them anyway.

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  57. @Level - that entire post wasn't directed at you. Just the first line.

    Every investment carries fees. I'm finding in real life the 'cost' of trading in 2X ETF's that I hold over a week or two in a choppy market is nowhere near the alarming tones of Zero Hedge or Seekingalpha.

    If the point they are making is "there is no free lunch" then no problem and I agree before I read past that sentence. If they are trying to say "leveraged ETF's are for suckers" then it's game on, get the real life data and post it up with the theory. Smart bunch of folks there with plenty of access to data. Show me.

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  58. 3 comments about today's raid on gold and silver.

    1. The Bilderbergs are gathering in Sankt (Saint) Moritz in the beautiful Engadin Valley in south-east Switzerland which meant a show of their 'mighty' power was necessary.

    2. The date - 10 June 2011 - adds up to 11 (1 + 6 + 4). Eleven is one of their 'secret', 'magic' numbers. They hit gold and silver on 11 May 2011 (1+ 1 + 5 + 4), 12 April 2011 ( 1 + 2 + 4 + 4) and 13 March 2011 (1 + 3 + 3 + 4), which as you can see, all add up to 11. February 14 was exempted. St. Valentine's Day. Hmmm. The day of love and passion. Interesting.

    And 3. - the Bilderbergs are gathering. Oh yes, it is important.

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  59. July Corn new highs with $8 insight!

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  60. Anybody interested in this?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kitco-charged-massive-tax-fraud-scheme-business-viability-question

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  61. Forgot to mention, but thanks Turd for the update yesterday on the mid/late June predictions.

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  62. outta EGO trade 31cents.....tasty...

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  63. End of last week, end of this week......Gold flat, Silver flat, Crude flat. Wheat, Copper and Cotton, no real change either...........

    The only excitement is The Big Turd's new site.

    BRING IT ON your royal turdness.

    Buon weekend a tutti (everyone)

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  64. Silver -its all gone quiet.. volumes dropped from what I can see (no pun intended) steadying... a kicking, granted, couple of stops triggered at a loss but we're back to where we were 48 hours ago...

    No so positive going into the weekend like this though.. don't think the odds of a Friday night bounce are that great either!

    But then WTFK!

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  65. @G
    Thanks for the nice post. Sorry I didn't see it earlier.

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  66. @NCOT
    Bro, there is no Friday night. All FX closes 5pm until 5pm Sunday, 6pm for metals. All times ET.

    Not saying it's going to happen, but since May 1, many of us fear that Sunday open because the vols are non-existent and raids have a high level of success if employed.

    If you carry long into weekend, an acceptable stop/loss play may be in order...at least until the vols get up there during the night.

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  67. to quote armstrong "Gold is not really backing off, and this raises the possibility of a pause in trend in dollar terms, while gold
    is likely to remain generally high and base-building for the next launch."

    either short with a tight stop/go on holiday/bury head in sand n play with maplesoreagles and keep buying physical

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  68. Economic Analyst said...

    CHINA: The beginning of a US TAKEOVER?
    China Wants To Construct A 50 Square Mile Self-Sustaining City South Of Boise, Idaho


    Heard a long report on NPR Radio yesterday about the Greek ports! China has about half of the port area, extremely poor working conditions, poor pay and looking for more. The Greek gov't now, under the yoke of the IMF/austerity demands, is looking to sell the gov't owned ports....and an interviewee noted the complete loss of sovereignty in Greece.

    The ancient Greek mariners are rolling in their graves right now...imagine, the Greeks will no longer control their ports!!!!

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  69. P.S....don't forget that the Chinese are also building a huge port in Mexico for the direct import of Chinese goods...will have very negative effects on the U.S. West Coast ports.
    I did a whole essay on this probably over a year ago on my blog.

    Search "Mexican port" and you'll find it .

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  70. @A Rogue
    Interesting Armstrong quote. I noted a few minutes ago that at 1535 we're exactly where May ended. No gain, no loss. So that seems to support what Armstrong is saying, maybe we see 1515 or maybe we see 1550, but not much more either way until QE3 or summmer doldrums over?

    @NCOT
    One other thing, atlee mentioned the other day that some traders (where??, can't remember) were targeting this coming Sunday night as a great time to put on silver shorts. If atlee is around maybe he can shed more light. Otherwise, it's just internet rumor stuff so may mean nothing whatsoever.

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  71. @Pailin, sorry, am thinking in UK time, the close 11pm here!

    Trust me, I'm fully aware of the Sunday night fear, seriously thinking of just taking a big hit tonight before close or reducing it substantially..

    Stops are in place but clearly setting them in all the wrong places..

    Undecided.

    Grateful as always..

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  72. Want to be accurate on this...the port is being build with Citigroup $ who got our TARP dollars...it's a long story..

    http://insightanalytical.wordpress.com/2009/03/12/maps-major-ports-usmexico-border-transportation-planning-fhwa/

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  73. Remember, as much as US Price of gold/silver is important (and the thing that we all sit here and obsess about), gold is a safehaven against all fiat currencies.

    Gold hit record highs priced in Great Britain Pounds today.

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-uk.html

    And in Euro gold, after the initial drop just before our trading hours, euro gold has now rallied above to new highs for the day, and just 14 euros off the nominal high for euro gold.

    http://goldprice.org/gold-price-euros.html

    --

    "When All Currencies are making new highs in gold, that is when we will see larger moves in the gold market" --- Mike Maloney

    ---

    Remember, we are ignorant to the dynamics we are not aware of... and there are plenty out there.

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  74. anyone still have the NAV to precious metal fund spreadsheet? my google version seems to be corrupted

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  75. Vincent, the Kitco news is a big deal. The largest precious metals community might get shut down if Kitco goes out of business:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kitco-charged-massive-tax-fraud-scheme-business-viability-question

    Could be a great opportunity for Turd's new site to pickup a crapload of users.

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  76. is that a double top on the POSX 1 min chart?

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  77. RE: TRE

    This from seeking alpha:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/274256-tanzanian-royalty-exploration-fool-s-gold

    Disclosure: I own several thousand shares of TRE

    ReplyDelete
  78. @scottj88
    good post

    in other words, the super cycle is king. seasonals is queen.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Happy

    I'm scratching my head about it too. No firm opinion on it, but I figured it would be a good read, food for thought, for anyone playing 2X Etf's.

    I'm sitting on some UGL myself, but it's only been a few weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Take the 5 hours chart on forexpros.

    Construct a trend line connecting the lows of 32.20 and 32.98 and you will notice silver is below this trend line on the downside.Is that significant ?

    Also if you connect the tops since the crash this entire formation looks like a bearish flag ?


    (weird thing - my posts appear in my rss feed but they don't appear on this comments section)

    ReplyDelete
  81. Just have a look at this David Banister report where he is talking of a truncated top in gold at 1551.

    http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/gold-could-top-sooner-than-later-and-fool-some-bulls/

    BTW is it possible that silver and gold might correct following the Armstrong turn date next week.

    ReplyDelete
  82. @All, I've asked this before but may have got missed,

    When everyone refers to the closing price are you / they referring to the NYMEX close or Globex Close?

    ReplyDelete
  83. So, what exactly is supposed to happen on Armstrongs magic date? Seems to me like it's all just vague enough that if ANYTHING at all happens anytime this summer, up or down, good or bad, then folks will look back and say Armstrong was right. Hoo Ha, what a genius!

    I lump it in with palm reading, tarot cards, and horoscopes.

    Sorry to upset the true believers, but that's my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  84. @ NCOT

    Comex close is the "pit" trading, which opens at 10:25 EST and closes at 1:25 EST (jeeez, what a short day). During comex hours, the majority of price movements happen (or in theory). When people refer to this close, it is usually said because at 1:25 EST comex "officially" records the prices for the day.

    Another type of close is the NYSE close which marks the end of the regular trading hours which close when the regular financial markets close.

    There is no "globex" close as it is open pretty much 24 hours a day, minus some change time from 5:15-6:00 EST time PM daily, and during the weekend hours.

    As far as importance goes...

    Comex Close <=> London Fix (1:25 EST and 11AM Est)

    NYSE Close being "official" end to US regular trading hours, and future trades must be executed on the globex...

    You are probably just confusing yourself... there are multiple closes, and each one has different meanings in different contexts.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Love me some ZSL today as well as SDOW and DXD.

    I'm not a huge trader (and a very poor one at that), but some of this is too easy to pass up.

    Heck, I may go long on SDOW. I could see another 300 point drop in the near future.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I feel like a cockroach in a popular insecticide commercial. Choking out a fearful and confused scream "Raaiiid?!" before rolling over.

    to 36.10?

    ReplyDelete
  87. To make an example...

    The EE are currently raiding the price of gold into the COMEX close (1:25 EST). So when the "official" price of gold according to comex is registered for the day, it gives a different perception of the precious metals market to those who look/algorithms as the closing prices are consistently skewed lower based on the timeliness of algorithms and the monkeys pulling the bids from gold.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Re: the TRE article

    I don't own TRE, and I don't follow it specifically. BUT, I've been around long enough that I think that sort of analysis and conclusion can probably apply to the vast majority of junior exploration companies. That's why, of the miners that I do own, nearly all of them have actual production going on. I think that removes a fair amount of the kinds of risks that are discussed in that article, but even then you need to pick and choose carefully.

    Sorry to upset another whole group of true believers, but that's my opinion.

    Anybody else out there that I can piss off today?

    ReplyDelete
  89. hit my stop in silver, bye bye $5k

    ReplyDelete
  90. @Code the Plumber,

    $35.70 perhaps. And sheesh, look at Gold. Maybe 1524ish close?

    It seems like buyers have given up and we all just want this week to end. What a blah week. That's half the battle that the EE fights. One is the price adjustments but the second half of their fight is demoralizing us.

    They KNOW the potential of these metals. If they didn't, they wouldn't fight so hard against them.

    ReplyDelete
  91. @eric

    can't get over the fact that armstrong basically ran a ponzi fund. his theory is based on pi, ie, it is the same crap as elliot theory, palm reading, reading stars, etc...u r right though something will happen on that date. something happens on every date! it can always be spun after the fact

    ReplyDelete
  92. @pfburn

    That TRE article is hilarious. It sounds like Sinclair is the ultimate pump and dumper. Maybe silvergoldsilver will get lucky and do the same with Tinka.

    @sp

    Sorry about the spreadsheet. I put it to auto-update and the risk was the company websites change their format, which corrupts the spreadsheet. I'll put it to open edit tonight when I get off.

    I don't plan on updating it regularly, so if people want to do it themselves for up to date calculations they will be able to.

    ReplyDelete
  93. @Kurt

    Paper game is too dangerous to play these days. Close those positions and have fun with something else. Stack some physical on this dip.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @cycle theory

    I agree it is bullshit. Anytime something doesn't work out, it can be written off as the effect of another cycle.

    Bottom line is no one but insiders know for sure about what will happen in the future. And even the insiders probably only know about their company or a specific sector at best.

    ReplyDelete
  95. 1530 is the bottom of the 2hr bollinger band that was breached then relcaimed this morning. To me this looks like "normal" bottoming action. Certainly not fun but not that a-typical in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  96. FOAQG. Traded some more ZSL for AGQ at silver $36.25. Now heavier on the AGQ but in total today have taken back some dry powder.

    Will flip some AGQ at $36.58 if we hit that before 3pm.

    Nice beatdown into 1:30 I wasn't sure it was going to happen that way today.

    ReplyDelete
  97. @Eric - if you are already sipping some crown, then count me in as pissed off. ; )

    Cheers, and much obliged for you feedback on TRE.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Cripes. They are beating up silver today.
    Looks like they want to test 36.
    A break through there would be demoralizing.
    But next week is a new week, and for those that care about fundos (for some reason some people ignore them completely :), 35/36 is hella nice price for 2012. Many it's a physical buy moment (over weekend) or longer hold than days, but if you're not over-leveraged it's not necessarily the end.

    However, I'm not buying paper here. Just being honest. Too early in the queen's season :)

    ReplyDelete
  99. Said it before and I will only say it one last time. Top of the channel was 37.50 the bottom is 35 and maybe 33. take out 36 and we are going there. I am off the blog until there is an ignore feature, Good luck, and may you all enjoy happy returns.

    BTW gold can go to 1460.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @robert

    thx man, no apology necessary. very nice of u to do the work and share it!

    just trying to figure out whr phys is today.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Eric#1 - Yes, I don't usually say it but all of this crazy stuff will just make you irrational - sorry but there is no astrology, magic, psychics, numerology, dowsing, etc. That is all BS. So is 99% of the conspiracy stuff. The stuff that happens can very easily be explained by greed, stupidity, corruption, bureaucracy, and plain old thievery and fraud.

    Sr G - I think so, I came to that conclusion but yesterday's bounce brought me hope back.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Bought SMN calls yesterday into the bounce. We have a couple thousand points on the Dow to go before QE3 is out and silver's gonna crap all over itself (paper silver that is) all the way down. I'm short silver (never part with phyzz) and will reverse course when fear rules the day. Will use proceeds to stack'em high at $30 or less.

    ReplyDelete
  103. re: Leveraged ETFs......SDS has been treating me right over the last week or so.

    Any other options for shorting the S&P or Dow?

    ReplyDelete
  104. MisesFan
    Just feeling cranky today I guess. Maybe I need to bust out the Crown and mellow out!

    It's 5 o'clock somewhere...

    ReplyDelete
  105. @Kurt there is an MSN reporter who studied Conspiracy theories for a couple of years. He interviewed hundreds of people. He is convinced that conspiracies are real and true. Not all of them, but many. The individuals who he interviewed were scientists, Phd, Doctors, executives and astute professors. They studied conspiracies EXTENSIVELY..you better do some research before you call it from your heart..

    ReplyDelete
  106. I was in Tre years ago and came to the same conclusion. I made good money and as a paper stock it does well but as a miner not so much but then each to his/her own.

    Sandstorm and Orko still holding up well.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Mises

    There are lots of them. Best known are probably SH, SDS, DOG, DXD.

    i have some DXD.

    ReplyDelete
  108. @Eric - ty sir!

    Time to read up on DXD.

    ReplyDelete
  109. @atlee,

    Who's giving you trouble? I love your posts. Don't stay gone too long!

    ReplyDelete
  110. Mises

    Oops, just noticed that you specifically asked about leveraged short etf's. As you clearly figured out, SH and DOG are 1X.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Oh crap.
    atlee's gonna put me on ignore :)

    Enjoy the beachfront sunset dude.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Here is a listing of more short ETF's. Not sure how old this article is, because I'm sure there are still more available now.

    http://www.tradermike.net/inverse-short-etfs-bearish-etf-funds/

    ReplyDelete
  113. atlee: I sincerely hope you don't stay away too long.

    ReplyDelete
  114. TO currency guys/ Humac:

    Is this a good buy for the CAD at 101.6?

    Thanks,
    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  115. atlee. Fair comments as always. What's getting under your skin?

    ReplyDelete
  116. That made me feel SO MUCH better =b

    ReplyDelete
  117. Atlee said it best yesterday when he pointed out that he's a contrarian indicator at this point. An unusually accurate post from him lately.

    You can stuff your ignore button, and I'd appreciate it if you'd stop attacking me. Everyone knows who you are talking about.

    Bully.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Kurt,

    1. You need to stop pointing that gun at us

    2. Because you're in the dark hardly means a deeper reality hasn't been found by many others here.

    Some get it, most only get what they can handle.

    "Since I entered politics, I have chiefly had men's views confided to me privately. Some of the biggest men in the U.S., in the field of commerce and manufacturing, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it."
    -Woodrow Wilson (said in 1916)

    "The beginning of wisdom is to understand how much one doesn't know"
    -Socrates

    ReplyDelete
  119. Mises

    And of course, any of us involved with miners need to be aware of DUST, which is 2X short miners. Could come in handy here and there. :D

    ReplyDelete
  120. Turd's website is coming sooner than later so the ignore button will be there soon, thus Atlee won't have to wait long :) (although I don't see much flaming lately, but maybe I just don't care anyways :))

    Why all the hatred amongst ourselves... isn't that the goal of the EE? Come on guys, we are chatting on an internet forum about something bigger than ourselves. Let us all leave our ego at the door :D

    We are living in Revolutionary Times...

    "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing"

    P.S. These times are tough to deal with, go easy on one another... I just had a breakdown the other day, but am in good spirits today. When you follow this shit so much, and have your fiat on the table, it is way to easy to get emotionally sucked into the power of the EE.

    Do yourself a favor and empower yourself by whatever means necessary (reducing leverage, adding leverage, looking at stuff, taking a break, etc..). If we all empower ourselves, we give less of it to the EE... who don't deserve any of the energy that a community like this has to offer.

    ReplyDelete
  121. @Eric#1

    Earlier I mentioned my little adventure with DUST, my brokerage wouldn't let me set a stop (maybe because of the light trading?) and I had to babysit the damn thing for an hour.

    Don't know if you've had that problem

    ReplyDelete
  122. Crazy markets - chop chop chop. GLD MACD looks terrible, equities actually look decent for next week. Will probably get some good news over the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  123. POSX knocking on the 75 door.
    Fed has confirmed (forex.com news) Treasury purchases will end in June as scheduled, proceeds will be reinvested.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Kiwi
    sorry, never tried setting a stop when I was in and out of DUST. No help on that one.

    ReplyDelete
  125. @ Happy

    Over 6 mo nths or a year you will see a noticeable 'underperformance' with 2x leveraged etfs.

    I trade both the canadian ones (horizon beta pro usually) and the US ones, SSO, SDS, AGQ, TBT, UBT etc.

    There was a day or two back a month or so ago where AGQ and ZSL barely moved, yet HZU and HZD moved 6% plus, so I think there is something wrong with the american versions.

    Be careful buying calls or selling puts on leveraged etfs, but you might want to think about buying puts and selling calls.

    3x etfs I would not touch for any reason.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Atlee, hopefully you'll be back soon. I, among almost everyone here, enjoy your comments and what you bring to the board.

    Now, TRE: I've read the Alpha story but I'm gonna have to check the backstory and the author out further. Not only do I own the stock but have faith in Sinclair as a straight shooter. Looked like a hit piece.

    ReplyDelete
  127. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-of-keynesianism-2011-06-10?link=MW_latest_news


    Something for you TF!!!

    ReplyDelete
  128. jealousy knows no bounds (yea that is exactly what it is about)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL-KbsHe42k

    ReplyDelete
  129. seems like they are capping silver indirectly by attacking gold. genius. If we do break 36 I'm out for a while, no more drinking for me though, yard-work can be very therapeutic too. This sure leaves a bad taste in the mouth after last nights rally.

    Can wait for the new site Turd! atlee we all have your back, when your lip heals from too much biting we will be here.

    ReplyDelete
  130. humahuaca,

    Is now a good entry for CAD long term? Short term?

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  131. @ Shill

    I bought a half position in TBT...but will cover it soon if I can get a few $$ out of it.

    I'm still feeling better buying UBT on dips instead of TBT. Maybe once greece settles down that will change...one or two bad auctions and TBT will be looking good.

    ReplyDelete
  132. humahuaca you and I trade exactly the same ones. I agree 6 mos, or a year in normal up-and-down will take a toll. In a bull or bear they seem out outperform 2X which the naysayers neglect to mention.

    From my qualitative work random observations it does look like the US versions function differently (more detrimental to the trader) even though they read the same on paper.

    I haven't looked at puts and calls on HZU/HZD although per atlee's suggestion and now yours I might. My brokerage is with RBC. Would appreciate you letting me know if you are playing puts/calls on those and with what brokerage.

    3X etf's are too steep for me too. I don't get it right often enough for that and the market changes too much during non-TSX hours.

    ReplyDelete
  133. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-of-keynesianism-2011-06-10?link=MW_latest_news

    Is Turd really Steven?

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  134. Turd's still holding out hope that silver is it stay within it's pennant formation can move up while gold sells off and drops. Is that possible given that silver seems to fall or rise based on what gold and crude to a lesser extent is doing? Is it possible for silver to rise back into the $37 - $37.50 range if gold falls below or closes below today's low of $1525.00? Just looking for other thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  135. EE is accomplishing the demoralizing part for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  136. @ Grasshopper

    I'm torn here, the employment numbers for canada were pretty good today, otherwise CAD would be trading at 1.02 or below, IMO.

    I reluctantly covered some of my short CAD at 1.0230, but was hoping to get it at 1.02.

    I am not going long CAD here...I am still long USD. If you don't need CAD, I would wait. I only plan to go long CAD at par, or 98 if I really get lucky and things are crashing.

    But if we really can't break through 1.02, then I might just have to give up and pile in as much as I can, but it's too early to tell yet.

    Looks to me like stocks will stay weak, commodities too, so no rush to buy CAD ...yet.

    Takes a lot of patience though...it does not weaken easily.

    And I don't see all that much upside to CAD either, maybe only 1.10, but if you are really worried about holding USD, CAD is a good way to sleep well at night.

    ReplyDelete
  137. I agree with Scottj88 that we all come here to learn from each other and that usually means opposing view points will be expressed...sometimes very passionately. We are in revolutionary times where the tenets of much of our country are under siege. The enemy should is the EE, TBTF and every other bastard who choses to tear down our liberties. As long as we all try to contribute more than we take...then we should all continue to benefit in our virtual community, Turdville.

    Interesting side note....Federal Court orders TSA Certifed Agent to be present for security at High School Prom. Here is a video on it:

    TSA Agent involved in High School Security

    It may not seem like much, but everything begins under the auspice of small moves. The power hungry TSA frightens the hell out of me...reminds me too much of the rise of brown shirts in Germany.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Revett is on a run... go figure I just went lighter in to a cash position the other day (40% of my core) when I had that breakdown I referenced early. Just goes to show you :)

    I would really like to see the $HUI close over 508.89 (currently 508.27), the $XAU to close over 194.11 (currently 193.84), SIL to close over 23.13 (currently 23.11), and GDX to close over 53.43 (currently 53.39).

    If those can happen, it would bode better for going into next week, especially since it is "make or break week." Expect to see a lot of un-normal things in the next weeks... that is for certain.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Grasshopper - Can't be, Turd is MUCH better looking... ;-) Plus he's said that he's out of the corporate hamsterwheel.

    @ atlee -- I know it's hard, and often I can't do it myself either, but 'manually' ignoring nonsense IS possible. Would miss your contributions, don't be a stranger too long.

    ReplyDelete
  140. And XLF going wild, as reported by Zerohedge here...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-flush-sticksave-provided-fed-basel-capital-charge-requirement-be-lowered-3-2-25

    Not quite sure what to make of it but it seems to be putting a hammer in XLF, the S&P, and the DOW. Could be poising for a jump next in equities?

    UPDATE:
    20Million Shares just purchased... holy shit, volume spike!!!

    ReplyDelete
  141. @ Happy

    I'm not sure if there are options on HZU HND? I looked once, and either they didn't exist or were too expensive/illiquid.

    I usually daytrade, but of course sometimes get caught with HDD or HOD for example, and need to hold it a week or 2, and that's when I am glad I am only playing with 2x and not 3x.

    I hope to receive some more funds from sale of some property soon, and then I will stop playing 2x etfs and stick with unleveraged versions.

    word ver: Hoold hmmm just what I am doing

    ReplyDelete
  142. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  143. @Robov - Silver lead gold on the way up, and led on the way down. It's already been smacked down. The conventional viewpoint that all assets will decline until QE3 is announced has shaken out a lot of loose hands in metals and stocks. Up we go next week.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Do hope u come back atlee, if I read anyones comments i read yours and Pailins, .....sometimes ignore everyone else just read yours....that way I get straight to the meat

    ReplyDelete
  145. FOAQG. 3pm. my sell price for the day flip volume moved down. almost hitting it now.

    Gone for the evening. GLTA

    ReplyDelete
  146. hey all...Gainesville Coins has lowered their premium on silver Buffalos and bars from 1.45-1.55/ounce down to .99/ounce. Just an FYI. Here's the link:

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/154673/1-oz-silver-round-999-fine-buffalo-design.aspx

    And they are selling U.S. Minst State Quarters 90% silver proofs for .55 over spot.

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/157854/(1Face)of90SilverStateQuarterCoins.aspx

    If you don't like pre-65 "junk" silver then these are nice and new.

    Can't wait to see the new site Turd!!! I'm psyched up!!!

    ReplyDelete
  147. @humahuaca:

    Thanks. Looking at going long CAD, I am concerned about USD.

    Also look at Swiss Franc and Australian dollar.

    @CD:

    Reading that article I tought I saw some turdisms.

    Grasshopper

    ReplyDelete
  148. Wonder if they can keep gold under $1550 and silver under $37 all summer? Dumb bastards, all they are doing is making it easier for competitors of the US (and the west in general) to stuff their central banks with gold bars at bargain prices.

    ReplyDelete
  149. It's interesting that Claude Resources (CGR) is up today. No news either.

    ReplyDelete
  150. And they still couldn't keep the Dow from sinking under 12,000...

    ReplyDelete
  151. @Jeff - Hope you are right, as I have been deciding whether to hold my position over the weekend and hope things are better for silver on Monday. I am holding GPL and some have been saying earnings are coming out Tuesday, although I haven't been able to confirm that. Earnings should be up and I am hoping for a bit of a bounce on that news as well. It is definitely not a place for the weak.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Benny's Barnum and Bailey Circus or Fraud continues another day, where losses are obviously contained.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Glad I've been at my day job not having to watch this slaughter.....for newbie traders ...just take you beating and hold tight ....if you have cash left hold on to it....this can go on for several weeks.....before the trend changes. Go back and loook at last years charts

    ReplyDelete
  154. Some gold analysis over at the screw tape files is worth keeping an eye on.

    http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/06/144.html#comments

    An interesting point: The cartel wants gold to increase, as long as it happens in a controlled manner. I would say the same thing with silver. This idea has been on my mind. They want it to appear as though they are "trying to hold it down" with raids but really they are managing the increase in price. They will use gold to get to a NWO currency but only when they are ready and not before then. Gold will not get out of control until the global elite actually want it to.

    ReplyDelete
  155. @Grasshopper - I know, and agree. T'was just a joke on my part.

    ReplyDelete
  156. @ Grasshopper

    If you are looking at FXC, it does not equate exactly with spot CAD.

    For example, right now FXC is 101.75 and CAD is 102.33.

    When I say buy at 1.02 I mean spot CAD not FXC.

    So, FXC at 101.50 60 is not a bad buy short term.

    There are thinly traded options on FXC too, I have done very well with those, just wish the spreads weren't so large.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Sandstorm Gold on fire SNDXF in US 1.13 CAD 1.10 goldstream company with Nolan Watson ex SLW no. 9 of Casey's nex ten. He's still in his 30's
    i.3 million shares traded in Canada and 1/2 million in US

    ReplyDelete
  158. If we think they are dumb, they are not. If we think they are losing control, they are not. The metals started to soar in the 70's/early 80's. They squashed that and held it there for 2 decades until they were ready to release pressure from the submerged beach ball. This is the end game but they have let it happen the way they have for their reasons and it will finish up when they are ready, not before then.

    ReplyDelete
  159. @Level Headed....you remind me of the story of the frog and the scorpion. You are the scorpion.

    Have you considered changing your name to Dick Headed?

    ReplyDelete
  160. @sp

    The NAV spreadsheet is now updated and public. Anyone can edit it. I recommend saving a copy to your gmail account incase it is ruined.

    I will no longer update the spreadsheet as harvest is approaching and I will be very busy for the next 5-6 months.

    NAV Spreadsheet Link

    ReplyDelete
  161. Is this rally in bank stocks going to carry into next week? Why would this happen if it wasn't going to... check out all of them, they are on a tear... (thanks XLF...)

    Or is this just to paint the charts for a bull trap?

    Anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  162. Holy cow RBC just bought 100,000 shares @1.11 CAD of Sandstorm.

    I haven't been able to post until today as my password had to be changed. I wonder if that has happened to others.

    ReplyDelete
  163. @ EA

    The Cdn economy is of course tied to the US, which is why I am so surprised we have not seen any real weakness here yet.

    But to say that both the USD and CAD will crash at the same time makes no sense whatsoever.

    Relative to what?

    Please tell me what the USD/CAD rate is under this scenario.

    I don't give a damn what they do vs JPY, EUO, CHF etc, other than for my travel needs.

    If the canadian housing bubble bursts and at the same time I can buy canadian fiat at 76 cents with my USD fiat, I will be in freaking heaven.

    If you are saying all currencies will go down vs gold and silver, I neither believe it (short term) nor do I care.

    Anyone who argues the cdn economy is worse off than the US has no idea what they are talking about.

    That must be the same guy who was selling me CAD at 78 cents 2 years ago, when I was incredulous at my luck to be able to buy a currency from a better run country at a 25% discount.

    How unbelieveably stupid and short sighted traders can be in a panic. It was my trade of a lifetime, never saw a more obvious one.

    I literally dream of the chance to repeat that.

    ReplyDelete
  164. i need some suggestions

    i'm down just a little on SLV, sell now or wait till tommorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  165. Alright Turd, you have gained credibilty in my eyes because in the past few days you have acknowledged downturns and aren't just saying that gold/silver will climb indefinitely.

    ReplyDelete
  166. My GRZ and MNEAF are showing some green on an otherwise disastrous day. I finally looked at my metals portfolio and was pleasantly surprised...was expecting much more red

    ReplyDelete
  167. @2215.. I'd like to know how you can trade anything tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  168. just saw headline on CNBC

    fabrice tourre charged with securities fraud

    interesting...GS is well up today too.

    ReplyDelete
  169. @long string of alphanumeric characters (I was not aware anyone still used AOL) - Turd said lose the paper. If you're down just a little, you should sell -- in general holding overnight/over weekend is NOT advisable these days..

    I am down quite a bit, to the point of already having worthless options, so no additional downside for me -- waiting for outcome of La Loteria over the weekend. There are ALL kinds of possibilities that could emerge, and I feel the systematic beatdowns of the last few days were not coincidental.

    ReplyDelete
  170. crapppppppp i thought it was thurs....

    don't laugh at me I must have been staring at this ---- screen to long.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Silver really wants to test $36.......

    ReplyDelete
  172. Well it feels good to make money again. Sure it was only $30 but considering I only have $600 left to play with, I will take what I can.

    Please people be willing to buy puts when it makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Waffen, look at it in % terms. 30 from 600 is a nice % return.

    Keep taht up for a year and you will be doing well!

    ReplyDelete
  174. thanks for the help. dumped everything i had in SLV, down 2%. I'm to inexperienced to be playing with paper.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Kitco in Big Trouble

    For as much we can think back, Kitco is where you go for gold. We use their live spot gold price on the sidebar. But things can change for this reputable site; Financial Post has published an article that the company is facing widespread gold fraud charges. Kitco “strongly denied any wrong-doing in a statement Friday”.
    A note on the floor of its on Thursday said that “operational constraints” had forced the service counter to close this week.

    “Kitco Metals Inc. has never participated in any tax fraud, nor has it ever carried out any fictitious transactions. In all respects, Kitco vigorously contests all aspects of Revenu Québec’s investigation,” it said.

    The company said it has asked Superior Court of Québec to appoint an interim receiver so that it may continue normal operations under the supervision of the accounting firm RSM Richter. The action was taken “to allow for the time required to vigorously contest Revenu Québec’s unfounded claims.”

    http://seekingold.com/index.php/Gold-Market/Gold-Analysis/Select-Reading/Kitco-in-Big-Trouble.html

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  176. Just for the record XAUEUR up 12 bucks, XAUGBP up 6, XAUAUD up 9 in last 8 hours. Its the dollar strengthening.

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  177. I'm now mostly out. taken a big hit..

    only a couple of small long positions opened on the way down..

    Is there any real sign of support? Just wondering if it worth a short term short from here?

    I know.. should have done it from 37!

    My only reservation is that is the range is 32/33 - 38/39 as we've tested, this could be the middle.. but then again, so could 35...

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  178. FYI..

    My advice is pretty worthless so take it with a grain of salt.. With that said, I am now of the beleif that TPTB have complete control of the price of metals, sure there is overseas buying causing pressure, but only enough to slightly bump the price up.

    There will be no parabolic moves, no Comex Busting, no short squeeze, until they want it to, which wont be this summer.

    Please silver investors do not fool yourself into thinking that the price will shoot up and by not selling you will miss the big move up. Play it smart and disconnect yourself from the emotion.

    Every bad move I have made, is because I had faith in the fundementals winning out.

    We are playing in their casino and its a rigged game, accept it. This is not a war against the EE, its a shooting gallery and they have all the guns. Stack physical and if you trade dont trade because of the fundamentals of silver.

    P.S.. my advice is near worthless, take it for what it is.

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  179. Hathaway Confirms Gold to Trade in the Five Digits

    With a continuation of gold and silver volatility, today King World News interviewed one of the great ones, 40 year veteran John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund. When asked about the volatility in both gold and silver Hathaway had this to say, “We’re in a shakeout now and frankly it isn’t as scary as the one in 2008, but I think there’s no foundation whatsoever for solid, robust economic growth and that’s the realization the markets are coming to. I think we’re past the point of no return.”

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/9_Hathaway_Confirms_Gold_to_Trade_in_the_Five_Digits.html

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  180. @waffen,

    Good advice. Been there done that. Don't be afraid to take profits on trades. I've been wiped out a few times holding a position for too long based on where silver should be trading. How many times did I say to myself, "this is the big breakout?"

    Too many but as long as you learn from your mistakes and improve your game, then consider those losses as a cost of an education.

    I think we have a lot more downside to come which will provide a huge opportunity for those with dry powder or shorts who don't wait too long to cover.

    GLTU

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  181. We all go through times of despair and depression during times of war. Make no mistake, we are in a time of massive economic warfare with our enemy using every means of deception known to man. One must always keeps ones focus on the fundamentals and on the long term. As Turd so often reminds us, we have the truth on our side and therefore, we shall win, provided that we do not get discouraged and give up too soon.

    I marvel at the level of good advice here and moral support amongst the Turdites. So, like afrum, atlee has lots of admirers and supporters and therefore should not stay away too long because your advice and comments are very well appreciated and respected. Ignore the few detractors whose only purpose is to sow defeat and discontent.

    And then there is Scottj88. What can you say for such a young member of our esteemed forum, who gives us such precocious advice from his youthful wisdom. So happy you are over your breakdown, you only just keep getting better son. Thank you for all you contribute to this blog, you are much appreciated.

    Just remember all of you. This is only a temporary lull in the bull PM trend, typical during this summers seasonal doldrums. This too shall pass !!

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  182. I wanted to add a new acronym. FUSL I am sure many of you guys can figure that one out. It seems that douch took financials from down a few % to up a few percent with that shoddy reporting. I am not really happy as my JPM shorts were on fire until that idiot came out and drooled on the screen. I did however learn that I am in good company being short JPM as Jim Rogers is out saying he is short JPM now.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-flush-sticksave-provided-fed-basel-capital-charge-requirement-be-lowered-3-2-25

    Nothing like the Criminal Reserve announcing at 2pm on Friday, just as the market was about to flush all stops to the bottom that the already laughable 3% capital charge buffer (initially expected to be 9%) required by Basel may be reduced even more (according to NY Fed mouthpiece Steve Liesman, a hypothetical which will likely be refuted before long), probably down to 2-2.5%. This number is woefully inadequate to protect financial companies from the the material capital infusion that will be needed post the onboarding of $200+ trillion in OTC derivatives to exchanges as we reported previosuly, but who the hell cares: must kick the can down the road one more day.

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  183. @Waffen your advice is not worthless, you're pretty much spot on on most things there,

    What silver will do and when, is most peoples guess and opinion. The ones who guess it right, claim to be all knowledgable.

    I listen to everyone on here so I can form my own opinion. Human emotion is my biggest hurdle. Although in my head I know what to do, my heart stops me and thats been the painful part week after week.

    I've lost enough to make me sick thinking about it, whats worse is that I chose to ignore my own brain telling me to either take profit or cut losses.. All my fault.

    But I know I can do it again as long as I keep something in the pot. And with a clear head I know I can.

    the worst thing you can do, and I mean the WORST thing, is to beat yourself up over it. I just said to my wife "I'm an idiot, should've sold this morning" - she told me to shut up and keep my chin up cos she knows I can do it.

    I hope she's right!

    sorry to ramble on, but Waffen you've done well today go into the weekend knowing you can do it over and over with the occasional trip up..

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  184. @ Waffen

    I think I said that exact same thing several months ago. Your advise is not worthless because there are many people who can never come to this realization. I am actually still struggling with it, as this battle is long and not for the feint of heart.

    Admitting that you have been making mistakes (during this very tough period for even the most seasoned people (not me) are struggling to figure it out) is the grandest lesson you have taught yoruself.

    Keep your head up, it's all part of the journey.

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  185. Oh and lets not forget, we're at 36.25 as I type...

    Thats 10% up from the lows... and not far off where we started on Monday..

    I'm down a lot, but its not all doom and gloom. (Though I'm happy to short the f*ck out of it if its gonna keep doing this!)

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