http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scotia-mocatta-loses-60-its-physical-silver-one-month-reclassification-total-comex-registere
DO NOT LET THE MANIPULATING, CRIMINAL CARTEL FRIGHTEN YOU OUT OF YOUR PHYSICAL METAL. BUY PUTS FOR THE SHORT TERM IF YOU MUST BUT CHERISH YOUR METAL. IT IS YOUR ONLY INSURANCE AGAINST FINANCIAL DISASTER.
I was going to leave you a message last night, Mr. Ferguson, but where is the fun in showing my cards beforehand each and every time? But now I will wish you this: MAY you have an exciting week!
ReplyDeleteI think it should be fairly obvious to everyone by now that a COMEX default is imminent. They only have enough silver to settle 6000 contracts. Kicking the legs out from silver today (and all other times past and future) is just buying time. Buy physical now, don't be stupid!
ReplyDelete@ Baxter
ReplyDeleteam i getting this right in thinking that if the comex defaults, the price of physical is going to skyrocket?
Thanks turd. Are you suggest people should short paper silver. ?
ReplyDeleteWhy do you think they're reclassifying the shit as fast as they can? Not only is the CONmex about to default, they furthermore than absolutely no intention of making delivery on what little silver they do have. That silver reclassified out of Scotia's vaults is probably on a Bennochio the Clown fedex freight flight to the Caymans.
ReplyDeleteYou don't think these crooks would deliver until the vault is empty, do you? They wouldn't have any physical left for themselves!!!
Hey Blythie,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by "exciting?"
Exciting as in good or exciting as in bad?
Just a note from the hard edge here; had a refiner doing a silver scrap drive in a neigboring city last week. Also, 3 of the 4 'We buy gold and silver' shops near me have closed, presumably from lack of business, and I'm in a middle/uppermiddle class burg....
ReplyDelete@Leonard
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Once they realize that they're going to default, there would be no honor in delivering on just a few contracts. Might as well keep the metal they have, which will appreciate exponentially, and settle the paper at a discount.
Won't tread on me, as I've bought long and strong silver eagles for years and haven't traded any but a few for ammo & guns I wanted. One monetary store of value for another. Criminal element damn certain won't scare me out of guns & ammo as well. I want to be among those hunting financial criminals down like dogs when the Keynesian experiment implodes upon them. I'm locked and loaded.
ReplyDeleteBTW I got the hell out of of all my stuff yesterday at $38.50 and $1537 (excepting physical obviously). The last time I heard this kind of ground rumble I barely escaped the smasholator.
ReplyDelete@ NCOT
ReplyDeleteWhy shouldn't we make money on the way up and on the way down?
Bill Downey of goldtrends.net stated this and I believe it to be true: You make money following the market ---------not guessing what you want it to do... You let it lead the way ---and then follow it.
It has taken me a while to figure this out and ignore my personal bias as opposed to what I THINK the market should be doing.
The Cartel gets a ton of nerve when I'm away. Took a vacation 4/29-5/5 and we were gutted! Now I take a day off and UNDER $37 ! Looks like I'm going to have to take more time to tend the market here.
ReplyDeleteTURD ! Never worry. Phyzz is only bought, not sold until PMs can buy more than they ever have before. The end of this Keynes BS is rapidly drawing to a close.
Seriously, this is not really funny that people are listening to anonymous tips from 'blythe' that mean nothing.
ReplyDeleteBut this is far from over. I would check out Franklin Sanders and this Cyclical Market Analysis guy.
This was me this am, before I went to make cupcakes w/ my niece:
gold must pierce 1540 to keep going.
"raid" time is post-london fix, 3 GMT, after 10 east coast. feels like raids been way overdone last night, so silver will either have to keep momentum going up or fall. i am not buying today.
June 1, 2011 9:07 AM
I freaked when I saw we had pierced 37.9, and made my exit as quickly as possible. Yesterday's gains evaporated. I put the short on there, as I figured with the equities falling, silver would be crushed.
I am hoping for a bounce up tomorrow. But again, not buying. Re-shorting. I fear we've got a date w/ 33 or even the 200 dma.
Leo! CONmex!!!! Another superb bankster fraudster term I'll use upon interrogation of future dogs I hunt down.
ReplyDeleteSaid it before, and will say it again: triple digit silver this year. No way to stop it, it's already a wrap. Even if they close all the exchanges, it will still trade at these numbers at the PM shop or at Ebay or to whereever the trade will shift.
ReplyDeleteI like the last paragraph Turd - too true. I would never trade paper if I didn't have my physical, stashed/hidden nicely in a few different places (like the squirrels do it ;)), so that in any and all circustances I will have at least some physical silver.
TF, et.al.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing at least a $1+ bounce by Friday, to the $37.50-37.90 area, provided there's no concerted follow-through tonight. Thots?
@SnoochieBoochies
ReplyDelete*WHEN* the COMEX defaults, the price of physical silver will skyrocket. Trying to predict the date of this event is an exercise in futility -- it might be this month, it might be in 2013. However, knowing that this event absolutely and unstoppably *IS* coming should lead one to the only reasonable course of action: BUY AND HOLD PHYSICAL SILVER!
More Scottsdale Silver Bars please!
ReplyDeleteAlso check out http://www.IRAmetals.com to use your IRA money to buy physical silver bullion.
@much4him. I don't have a problem shorting.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if this is the end of it or there's more to come. If we're still hanging in for 39 , on good. I would be prepared to cut some loses now and short the he'll off it to 33 if that's what could happen.
I'm holding tonight and hoping the Asians lift u a bit.
Going along with Bill Downey being spot on: Just checked my email and got this mid-day email from him (subscription of $10 a month). Looks like he had the right idea.
ReplyDelete---
My own personal gold target of 1551 has been reached in August gold ---- but not June gold --- it missed by 50 cents. I've closed my short term trade at 1547. That does not mean gold won't go higher --- it just means my personal target has been reached.
In silver --- prices reached 38.40 but no higher. Silver is weaker as it is more influenced by global economy. With the stock market off 180 points --- i'll close my position from 36.95 now at 37.95 and be happy with that. Again --- this does not mean that price will go lower....but for me ---- the risk has grown a bit and I'm glad to go on the sidelines for now and watch.
THIS IS SHORT TERM TRADES ----- all longer term positions should be held.
hmm doesn't lower prices encourage physical buyers to take delivery thus precipitating the demise?
ReplyDeleteWell now, there ya go.
ReplyDeleteDon'tcha just love a short, sharp Turd? SO satisfying...
Turd, also, do you know where Justin has been? We miss him. And he's my brother in Ucore (UURAF) pain. Misery loves company ya know.
The comex won't default until SLV is completely drained and the bullion bank account holders are unwilling to part with silver at any price. So when there is hyperinflation of the dollar, the comex will default.
ReplyDeletei'm hoping for 37-37.5 tomorrow.
ReplyDeletewill short it back to today's low.
will see if 36.5 holds.
if not, will short it to 33.
i expect s&p to make a lower high tomorrow and/or friday.
will short that bitch like there's no tomorrow until folks come begging for QE3 and the bankers have their way.
Even would the paper ponzi CONmex-ers drive the paper price of silver to zero I wouldn't give over my stash of eagles. Sink it to the bottom of the Marianna Trench before the rat basturds get one ounce from me. Anyone with any genuine courage; kahonies won't deserve to have one ounce of real money, if they can't take the ultimate take down by the criminals. Don't think for a second the criminals won't shake out every last ounce of silver from the weak handed. You're not prepared for that? GET OUT!!!!!!!!!!!! Get out now and place your FRN's upon the alter of the beast.
ReplyDeleteAlso, over the last month we've seen (by far) the biggest decline in SLV holdings since its inception, and that since about a week ago, SLV has stopped updating the number altogether.
ReplyDeleteThis is just as much of relevance as the COMEX inventory numbers. Obviously a lot of physical metal is needed somewhere. The train of thought that people are just selling the SLV and that frees up a lot of inventory is ludicrous.. that metal is needed somewhere, either in the market to depress the price, or to cover someone's obliations. (Yeah sure, the SLV has too much silver lying around so they'll just get rid of some of it for some precious precious fiat.. right.)
We've been in backwardation on the COMEX since December now too, and after a little pause last month we're in backwardation again on the LBMA too.
I'll just throw that in, everyone draw your own conclusions.
Turd, for us long fellows, do you suggest getting out now? Do you expect the spot to get further beat downs?
ReplyDeleteafrum,
ReplyDeleteI second that notion.
Just a snippet from another site.
ReplyDelete"4 hour Bollinger Bands in Hi-Ho are presently tighter than a sumo’s jock strap,.. The band’s only been this narrow on one other occasion in the last 2 months and that was around the 24th May,..
Portends the strong likelihood of a $2-3 move in the next few days,.. That’s either going to take us down to circa $35-36 or up to $41-42!.."
Here’s hoping for the latter!
Sooo, the big headlines: Comex out of silver!
ReplyDeleteI've heard different accounts for the consequences of comex failing to deliver. Some say spot up, other say spot down. What's the score here?
afrum-
ReplyDeleteawesome post.
get out. save up. buy physical.
NZ Mint which is pretty much the only place you can buy bullion in New Zealand. Now has a 4-5 week wait for supply of all silver products, as they cant keep up with Demand.
ReplyDeleteThe person I spoke too, said never in the companies 25 year history have they ever had a wait of more then a day or two! Times are changing.
Silver supported by the Teal colored line twice already...
ReplyDeleteSilver Chart and PLs
sign....the formidable 38.90 and illusive 39.50...
actually I think now with this drop and double bottom at 36.40, the most extreme optimistic upside is 41 by this weekend.
The drop was due to the new moon kicking in
Just a rant, but maybe some of you can identify with this.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's a coincidence that when Obama was pressed today to cut spending (and pressed back on the debt ceiling) that the markets got a little bruised. "All part of the plan."
It wasn't a "flash crash," it wasn't panic selling, it was a controlled raid, and it occurred at the end of the day. Been there, done that, learned the lessons.
Lately, silver looks like it's in the crosshairs of TPTB -- more so than at any time for the past couple of years. That's got to make you nervous; it scares TSOOM.
Remember that news story a year or two ago about Goldman hiring psychologists to watch blogs and financial forums to gauge sentiment? Somebody noted above that "cryptic comments" are showing up on Turd's site... I hate to see that, Turd, you deserve better.
Remember the infamous Goldman trading program? The one that allowed their supercomputers to detect orders that had been entered on a computer but not yet placed? The one that was stolen, that "had the potential to manipulate markets?"
How can an ordinary investor or speculator make any money, long-term, when they've got us beaten so resoundingly from those two factors, alone?
Maybe you'll claim the fundamentals are on our side, and sure, of course they are, and it kills me to see markets so blatantly NOT trading on fundamentals. But who cares, when 0% money is being handed out like candy in million dollar denominations to the Fed's minions to prop up, no to LAUNCH the chosen securities (or bury those perceived as a threat)?
As for the technical charts, well, maybe that gives some people some security, but in the light of market manipulation I'm afraid it's a false sense of security.
Today, FAZ was up 8%, and it's almost a convincing move. But was it too quick? It smells like bait, to me, given the other factors (need to raise the debt ceiling, need for QE3 in light of poor jobs outlook, etc.)
But what do I know. Nada. I've got some silver coins and I'm hoping I never actually use them. I've got a Ron Paul bumper sticker, and for the first time in my life I've contributed to a political candidate's campaign (his). As I see it, it's Ron Paul or hide in the woods for the next five years (not really an option, since I have kids).
/end rant
The Delaware Depository is on that list! Yikes.
ReplyDeleteI am now going to have to seriously contemplate
- selling out of my PM IRA
- taking what's left after tax and early withdrawal and alchemizing that crap paper into PM while i still can do both
- vamoosing to North Dakota to ride out what's coming while an Escape from New York is still an option.
Gentleman Farmer; wheat + gold. Gotta say, the notion holds increasing appeal.
ewc, North Dakota is a nice part of the world.
ReplyDeleteWas there on vacation last year (road trip through Canada and both Dakota's)and hated myself for not going there during the 4 years I lived in the US.
do you guys really believe any investment bank would hold a losing position for 3 years?
ReplyDeleteIf I had a losing day that was accepted, but 2 days was questioned by the chief dealer, a week would mean a sit down meeting, a month would mean a sit down with the head of the floor, where you would have to provide a really good reason for them not to cut the position on you.
3 months with the same losing position and it would be cut for you, like it or not, and you'd be taking a short or maybe permanent vacation.
No way on earth any bank carries a losing position for years, when it would be so easy to turn it around in a day and go the other way to make up all the losses and then some.
Hey fellow Turds,
ReplyDeleteQuestion. I am thinking of switching my silver to gold because I think this Summer will rock far better for gold than silver. What do you guys think?
Thanks.
Hey Goldman Sux and any other banksters who may be monitoring Turd's site...keep manipulating the metals markets and you might see a 21st century version of BLACK FRIDAY!!!!
ReplyDelete------------------------
The term "Black Friday" came about as nervous depositors withdrew their gold coin savings from banks. Angry mobs dragged bankers out of their offices if they did not give back people’s life savings (in gold coins) and there are reports that bankers were hung in New York.
--------------------------
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/history-of-black-friday-is-not-what-you-think/
Like Gerald Celente says "When people lose everything....they lose it".
Vince, if you're so inclined, wait for Turds end of June Ag top, then roll into Ag. Just basing that assessment on Turd's Roadmap.
ReplyDeleteThere will be no default at the COMEX. Those who are short have lots of options, and, the CME has lots of options, including a declaration of force majeure, cash settlement only, and liquidation only trading (no new long positions). Shorts can obtain metal through buying enough shares of SLV.
ReplyDeleteIt's actually more fun to think about the obvious pressure of nearly 60K Open Interest full SI contracts (5000 ounces per contract) against COMEX inventory of merely 30 million ounces, and what this will force various players to do.
Accordingly, I think the war for July silver is just getting underway in earnest (though surely the Sunday night massacre was the first shot). What I see is that there will be enormous pressure on the physical market, and buying pressure on SLV as shorts attempt to obtain metal from the trust (in qualified tranches). Moreover, there is clearly a very scary factor coming out of Europe that no shorts could have anticipated, which are the nascent bank runs in Greece, and you can be sure around the edges that in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and even Italy that a scramble for metal is very much on.
I really look forward to the battle. There are 21 trading days to go, in the month of June. I see risk that silver could see both 35.00 and 45.00 in that time span--each price extreme for a brief, say, 4 hours.
If you have followed any of the other commodities over the past decade, they have a much higher volatility trading pattern post a severe correction. What makes gold and silver different is they are not--unlike oil for example--dependent on the return of industrial demand to test previous price highs. This makes gold and silver really dangerous for all players: they can literally achieve the impossible.
It is not impossible, therefore, that silver is in the midst of a pattern where it's about to head to 60.00 even, over the next 4 weeks. It could happen. Because gold looks like it could reach 1600 in 3 trading sessions or less. Yes, things in the OECD financial system--Japan, EU, US really are that bad. Here's the thing: they've been bad all along. The question is: are they finally ready to break again?
I think so. In fact, I expect some sort of rupture in the next 120 days.
G
Sorry Vince, i had my silverfoil hat on again. Of course I meant roll it into Au.
ReplyDeleteGood luck!
Good morning. Wow I really thought I was the only clown on this blog. Seems like we've got new additions the past few hours. I wonder what was the catalyst?
ReplyDeleteGonna exercise my debonair cryptic aura again:
A BIG MOVE IS JUST AHEAD. BE PREPARED FOR IT.
*D Homey back on duty Turd sir!
JoeKa, good to see you back.
ReplyDeleteThis place lacks something without your protective presence!
Since I'm on a roll with my calls today (see below) I'll make another prediction, we will hit $38 again this week and retest 39.50 in at least two weeks...
ReplyDelete-----------------------------------------------
JNG said...
55% Cash with my core AGQ at 205, not the best buy price in retrospect, but the chart is looking rough, we might be in for a $2 dip in the next couple of days..
June 1, 2011 3:05 PM
-------------------------------------------------
@JoeKa
ReplyDelete"A BIG MOVEMENT IS COMING SOON"? Oh, now I know what is happening in your pants....ewwwww.
Good to have you back, dude, help with the triage for us wounded vets of the silver war... Blythe threw a hand grenade right into the middle of the command post.....ouch!
I have noticed that the metal prices takes a nose dive precisely at 12PM like clockwork.
ReplyDelete@JoeKa D Homey
ReplyDeleteIt is up to you bro. We need the night shift to lift us up again.
brotha atlee. we'll try.
ReplyDeletefirst we need a costume chx.
ahhh...now thems fightin digs right there.
word ver #1: neglegs (had to crop the pix but you should see my legs. they're damn fine.)
word ver #2: packme (horny word ver algo)
Gregor,
ReplyDeletea default on the COMEX will likely occur. You're merely describing the scenarios that might apply in case of a default.
Of course the COMEX can choose to cash settle, or just deny all obligations. That doesn't change the fact that if they can't deliver, it's a default.
Noone is assuming the COMEX will crash, we're just assuming that they won't be able to deliver the silver. And that's a default.
what time zone are you talking about Blome?
ReplyDeleteBelow is an interesting snippet from Bill Murphy's daily Midas update. James McShirley has been following the 1 or 2% capping of gold's daily price rises for the past 12 years! He calls this HFR: High Frequency Rigging.
ReplyDeleteRead this b/c it is amazing and breathtaking in its consistency. And utterly horrifying in its implications of the depths of EE criminality it confirms.
Think about the machinery and resources dedicated to this effort. And then realize the US taxpayer has both funded the whole effort and is ALSO on the hook for all the eventual losses.
Is God Help Us applicable here?
-----------------------------------------------
Bill,
Gold is beginning June exactly like the past 12 years- capped at 1%. In fact there wasn't a single trading day in May that exceeded 1% on the Comex close, and 6 out of the 20 trading days stopped at exactly 1%. Once more the evidence in the AM fix vs. the PM fix is as manipulative as you can get. Out of 20 trading days EIGHTEEN were either lower, or no higher than $5. The biggest gain all month in the PM fix was a measly $8, while 3 days featured sharp PM fix selloffs of $12, $16, and $17. With such fierce selling pressure in N.Y. you'd have expected a big loss for gold in the month of May, right? Well in fact May only declined slightly at $1,535.90, down from $1,556.40 where it began the month. As it has been for at least a decade Europe, Asia, India, China, and the ME is buying gold, while New York is in total isolation in their selling. (paper, at least) This cannot go on forever. I don't think the word "managed" quite does justice to the gold riggers. It's more like HFR - high frequency rigging.
James Mc
Turd,
ReplyDeletethanks for all the perspective and encouragement that you give us.
ASEs are still selling for 44-46 on ebay.
08:56 ASIAN ZULU
ReplyDeleteSTART TRANSMISSION
------------
Attention Bravo Company. STOP
This is your field marshall Fook Yu. STOP
Company HQ has heard your cries over this long dark night. STOP
Currently planning battle strategy to take back 38+ by Friday. STOP
Expect enemy to put light resistance at 38. STOP
CHQ will send out big guns to overrun. STOP
CHQ planning attack vector 43 deep in enemy territory. STOP
Medics have been dispatched to your current location. STOP
Head nurse Fuk Mi will be in operational control of medvac. STOP
----------------
END TRANSMISSION
JoeKa, enemy is camped just shy of 39 and is armed with unlimited paper.
ReplyDeleteVery little silver in their posession though. Very little.
can anyone see this?
ReplyDeleteLOL, now that's what I'm talking about. Aim for the head, boys. And possession has 4 s'es.
ReplyDeleteJake:
ReplyDeleteNo. Let me know if you don't get this.
Harald:
ReplyDeleteyou owe me a keyboard ;-)
Turd, I am confused about your call for silver to rise and push 39+. I look at the charts, and see that we have hit about 39 3 times since the crash. The first time we went through it slightly, the second two times, just touching. Each time has been on less volume. If someone is defending that level, they sure don't need to try too hard. While today's mini crash was in the "thin globex", the daily clearly shows a nice red candle with higher volume. It looks to me like we were never getting the volume to go higher. It's not selling that is defending that level, it is lack of buying. Based on this, your calls have confused me.
ReplyDeleteGranted I would like your calls on this to be correct.
silver seems to have settled solidly at 37 and gold is back in the 1540's
ReplyDeleteFROM THE DESK OF FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
ReplyDeleteWill create smoke screen capitulation right under 38.
Enemy will think we pursue upfield targets with small rifle squad.
Enemy will not know we have merely bought time to amass full infantry battalion at 38 after advance party failure to foray past this point.
This will assist in overrunning bandits at 39 and form strong diametric push to 43 by mid June as per Chief of Joint Staff Turd's mission objectives.
Briefing notes arriving soon in Fuk Mi's dockets.
Excelsior!
Black Friday, September 24, 1869 also known as the Fisk/Gould scandal, was a financial panic in the United States caused by two speculators’ efforts to corner the gold market on the New York Gold Exchange.
ReplyDeleteTurd Ferguson said...
ReplyDelete"Really this is nothing more than the Cartel seizing the opportunity to punish the metals on the Globex under the cover of a steep selloff in stocks."
Remember March 14th. Japanese nuke melt-down. All markets down HARD. Like today.
Comments on blog same as today… "How many weeks until we reach $36 again from $34?" "Will we ever reach $36?" It was 3 days.
I was down 70% March 14th. And pissed. And scared. Four days later, I was up 10% and pissed b/c I couldn’t make myself BTFD. I had had dry powder; but no faith, no balls. Too green.
I feared the entire U.S. economy was imploding. I feared I didn't understand, and it would never come back. I feared.
Fear is a tax on a problem that has not yet occured.
I don't like taxes. Do you? If not, don't pay it.
The fear will pass. Sooner than you think. Deep breath. Turn off the PC and drink a few. Cool the emotions.
They say, "It's almost never as good or as bad as it seems at first." True.
If you can't stand the stress, go flat. You will get another opportunity. Atlee says it all the time: "Always another opportunity."
Pay attention to TF (duh!).
Deep breath. No, a REALLY deep breath. Exhale. Good.
They say, "This too shall pass." It will.
In a few hours or days, the fear will subside. Then figure out how you got trapped and fix it.
And smile. You know you’re right and WAY ahead of the sheeple. You have enough time.
- Jim M.
mmmm...blogger deleting posts again.
ReplyDeleteblogger service has just gone completely down the toilet!
here's a link to Screwtape about the death of Trinity B
http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com/2011/06/trinity-b-rip.html
Turd: You write "This is a war that the C/C/C (cme/comex/cartel) will lose but they will do everything in their power to prevent their collapse and prosecution." Who in the world do you think would prosecute? Is it really believed the feds are not either completely behind this or supporting it directly? And they're going to prosecute? Not in this universe.
ReplyDeleteNot scared at all. Thanks, Turd, for all the efforts. Stacking more in the a.m.. Will continue stacking until the I can no longer see the computer screen and get the Mission from the "Chief of Joint Staff". I may just be a private, however, I have desire to be on the Joint Staff! Let 'em beat it down to $30 and I will double my position. If they beat down into the $20's, there will be nothing left in the market.
ReplyDeleteBill Murphy's daily Midas update
ReplyDeletecan someone give a url so I can read what he has to say to try to understand what is happening.
Thanks
Metals are for warriors .
ReplyDeleteBack from dinner. This Greek friend of mine makes a leg of lamb that is to die for. Frigging genius, this guy is with a grill.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I put a sell order in for 2000 shares NGD at 10.05 in after hours. And for once, it filled. My jaw almost dropped seeing the filled message. Selling just under 20% of my NGD holdings seems prudent after today. Still have sizable holdings of NGD. Gotta be the best gold performer of late. But today was a reversal day in the broader markets. The miners will be hurt with further selling tomorrow.
I haven't been in this much cash in five or six years. Usually margined up to the gills.
I have no idea what to expect for tomorrow.
FROM THE DESK OF FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
ReplyDeleteBravo company, repair progress of hourly 200DMA ongoing.
Bridge builders and engineers are on-site to rectify the breach.
I'm sending extra resources to see if we can build ramparts to cover the hourly 18DMA also.
This will assist the Union Jacks in our coalition force to surmount a challenge of the hourly 50DMA later today.
FOOK YU
ho ho ho
ReplyDeleteDr. C clocked in da face.
OUCH!
Not looking to distract anyone.
ReplyDeleteJust trying to get my personal thoughts about silver sorted.
Am a stacker only, late to the game, but better off than most. Originaly planned on holding for longer period of time befor the price went crazy.
Now with price all over the place, can't seem to get a bead on things. So silver had some "shine" for a while as we knew it would. I am confused as to what prices will do next. my confidnce the PMs will continue higher has been eroded =/ ( that was the point right?!)
if PM stay flat, nothing lost nothing gained... if silver drops from 30's into the teens I would b PISSED, but still have food on the table and be payin the cable bill. my personal thought is PMs have more chance continue going up, or hanging tough, rather than drop 50%
rant off...
FUK MI DO YOU READ? BREAK-
Sir I got a bad case of the shakes! Can't make out the target... Advise reload, and maintain $ cost avg. on PHYS? Trying clear my head but things still blurry from last attack...OVER-
Hey Gramp,
ReplyDeleteHave no fear man... What you are seeing is a mere fluctuation in the paper price. Yes I know that does matter in one part of your brain but that's only because you have been conditioned to worry about the fiat price in dollars. Look at it in terms of other currencies, look at the market fundamentals in the terms of supply and demand, finally BTFD :)
I used to get worked up over that to, but you HAVE to keep in mind the short term ups and downs are nothing compared to the long term gains you are on your way to making. Keep stacking physical when you can, that's what I am doing.
PTE GRAMP.
ReplyDeleteSUGGEST YOU CONTINUE DRAWING PHYS SILVER FROM THE ARMORY.
WILL ADVISE LATER WHAT TO DO WITH IT.
RIGHT NOW I AM BUSY TENDING TO THE WOUNDED.
Fuk Mi
Think of it this way Gramp, if you woke up tomorrow and saw on the news that the dollar bills in your wallet were now completely useless and could not be redeemed anywhere would you be happier knowing you have a bunch of those in your safe at home or would you be happier knowing you have a bunch of silver stacked up for just that occasion?
ReplyDeleteI for one hope you keep stacking!
@Gramp
ReplyDeleteUnless you are really late to the battle, I like to think of the following. If all the physical you have saved have had been in cash you are still ahead in nominal terms and even more with the devaluation of the dollar. All being done by holding real, sound money.
Like Jimmy said don't worry about metal priced in dollars. I can't remember who said it but it was something like- switch the numerator and the denominator. Dollars priced in ounces , not ounces priced in dollars
SSK, Greeks do lamb the best. Ooops, sorry about how that came out :-)
ReplyDeleteJoeKa, our Man in Singapore. Brotha, you are on fire tonight/this morning.
Keep up the withering fire. Enfilade & defilade 'em into bloody God damned ribbons.
Gramp, what is your investment horizon for your Ag holdings please?
ReplyDeleteFWIW - I agree, at least partially, with three posters above.
ReplyDeleteGregor - I believe you are right, we are in a new and wilder phase of the market now. Last fall it was a big deal Ag was moving $2 in a month. Now it does that in a half day (or half hour!). It's the new normal.
Jim - Your post was well said. Don't pay the "fear tax". Amen.
Ken - I noticed the low volume also. That is something I don't know how to interpret. When we found support at 36.60 or so, why was there not more buying going on? Anyone else have thoughts on this?
@ ewc58
ReplyDeleteLONG term. Short and sweet.
Initially looking several years out, that I may have the chance to give something of VALUE to my family.
Admit I was getting exited during the run up!! :) thought wow, i am smarter than i thought!lol
Hopefully I have few years left to keep stacking! :0
@ JoeKa
ReplyDeleteYou crazy man. Me laugh you long time! Keep up the good work man.
There are going to be some people on this blog that are not going to be happy that Trinity B admitted to being a phony! I guess Turd and I don't have to apologize for calling it a douche bag.
Ken: I hope you don't think there's a contradiction because there isn't.
ReplyDeleteSilver isn't pushing through $39 yet and volume is low because of the psychological damage that continues to be inflicted upon the silver "market". Its something we've discussed quite a bit here recently.
As we get deeper into June, more convicted buying will appear as we approach 6/30 and first notice day for the July contract. This new volume and OI will drive silver away from 39.50 and toward the 42-44 target.
Yes, atlee. You and I figured that one out early on, didn't we?
ReplyDeleteOnce a douchebag, always a douchebag.
Ewc...
ReplyDeleteActually, Afghans (and the other "Stans" in Central Asia, but not Pakistan) do lamb the best.
Annnnd it went quiet!
ReplyDelete@ Turd
ReplyDeleteI wonder what its come to Jesus moment was? No matter but I hope it serves to prove to the patrons of your blog that these blythe/bernanke/etc types are all impostors.
Ceasar said; "men are most likely to believe that which they wish to be true."
Have a goodnight
FROM THE DESK OF FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
ReplyDeleteSERGEANT ATLEE. GOOD JOB HOLDING THE LINE YESTERDAY.
PITY THE CHARLIES TOOK ADVANTAGE OF BRAVO COMPANY DOWNTIME.
CHQ NOW WAITING FOR INDIAN BRIGADE SUPPORT.
WE HEAR THEIR CONSCRIPTS HAVE CURRY IN THEIR BELLIES AND GINGER IN THEIR FARTS.
IT MAY HELP SPEED UP RAMPART CONSTRUCTION TO THE HOURLY 50MA.
WE ARE CURRENTLY AUDITIONING SNAP CREW FOR MISSION 38.
WILL UPDATE STATUS ON COMPANY ORDER IN BULLETIN BOARD.
Fook Yu
Understanding the fundamentals, that's why I am here. I aready knew the answer to my prior questions about silver. Guess what is eating at me is fear the PTB will "invent" some way to undermine PM value. Desperate times right? That is their MO right? spending out of control just looking for the next way to scam the public. Puke.
ReplyDeletesorry...
I will stack and HFTB... (hope for the best)!
seems through out history, PM have been able to withstand all type of economic desparity.
Am working class joe... have not much... Stacking PHYS. PMs seems a way i could some day be proud of what I have to give my family...
@ Gramp
ReplyDeleteYou are so right!! Keep stacking and you will never go wrong. You are doing the right thing.
Gramp
ReplyDeleteDo you stack any gold? I have recently caught the fever and the ride is a little less bumpy.
@Gramp
ReplyDeleteYour whole family may not get it... Most might think you crazy... But you'll find one that gets it, and it's magical to see it happen.
There has been a lot of talk on a lot of different blogs about all these attacks on silver by the Cartel will eventually indirectly start affecting gold. Anyone know if Turd has shed any thoughts on that?
ReplyDeleteFook Yu and Fook Mi have both visited me at my house today. Having to sit on a dounut and eat my meals through a straw ever since I passed that FUBM earlier today. Slowly getting better.
ReplyDeleteDon Fooked
Haha Tim!
ReplyDeleteYes i have a bit of the Precious! YUM!
was funny how I was looking sideways at my Gold holdings while silver was running! ;)
was thinking why do i have so much $ tied up in that yellow stuff if the Grey Mare was going to run like that!
Now I KNOW why!!!
TraderDan said:
ReplyDeleteRisk trades are being yanked off in droves today but in spite of that, the Dollar, while higher, is not getting that much of a bid. That is most interesting and bears watching. This is the 4th consecutive close by the Dollar below the 50 day moving average, not particularly inspiring if you are a Dollar bull. A failure by the Dollar to extend its gains will be positive for the metals, gold in particular, which is trading as a hard currency against the paper currencies right now.
--------------------
I'm watching the price of Gold as an indicator for silver. Strength in Gold here makes me feel comfortable with my silver longs.
I'm still long my Comex gold paper. Anyone else long here?
ReplyDeleteGregor
ReplyDeleteInteresting take on the Comex.....It most assuredly seems that we are entering a period of more frequent and wild gyrations, but it is also in keeping with a system (not just Comex) that is in decline, specifically fiat currencies. We all should expect the volatility to swing in XX% within the span of a trading day. These markets will test the metal (Pun Intended) and resolve of every person holding gold or silver as the only true hard currency. If silver goes to 15, I'm buying. If silver goes to 60, I'm buying because I have realized there is no "faith" or "trust" left behind the FRN.
Your highlighted reminder about the deteriorating financial situation in Europe will bring only more upward pressure, as you detailed, on the precious metal markets. I don't know if we will see a full puncture in the market within 120 days. I see it more like death by a thousand cuts with some being deeper than others....eventually the patient either runs out of skin to cut or blood to bleed. Thanks for your contribution to the discussion.
@ Fort...
ReplyDeleteI have worked a bit at opening friends eyes to the economic events happening. At the least they and I are becoming much more educated about the world we live in. How much is that worth right? and maybe we will b smart enough to pay ourselfs with a few OZ's here and there.
Gramp, in light of your timeframe, there's really no option but to keep stackin'. See Turd's latest heartfelt recommendation to do just that in this very post.
ReplyDeleteI'm 53, hoping I have plenty of years left to stack. Just not sure how long the PM supply is gonna hold up, or at what cost.
Move briskly and execute sharply during this extended F'in D. In retrospect this interval will appear as Manna from Heaven for those wise and aware enough to sense the moment and take the appropriate steps and actions.
Buona Fortuna!
thank you Turd for your reply. So Those that want silver to be at a lower price need to keep the damage on. They can do this by making the low volume move up look like a bear flag and dead cat bounce. They can be aided by a general market crash that drags silver down with it. If they get the price down to 30 in this process (I would think a 15% market crash this month would do it). The damage would be reinforced, and a silver price under $30 would take a long time to recover from.
ReplyDeleteThe above case is the short argument against your thesis.
It seems that the biggest risk to silver is the general market decline which looks to be in the cards. I would love to know how I am wrong in this, but this is the threat I see.
Back from a few days at the Banff Springs Hotel, if any of you are ever there make sure to check out where room # 873 is supposed to be..... cool story, got a little drunk and might have tried to run through the plaster cover up last night.
ReplyDeleteOh ya and not to pleased that my overpriced car insuarnace premiums i pay allow the ICBC crew to head to AB and live the dream.
Rolled through Golden just in time and just long enough to get some service to BTFD...
Tomorrow should be exciting...
Titus, the only paper I'm long in is Scott. 1000 sheets per roll, what value. Really the only way to go.
ReplyDelete@ ewc58...
ReplyDeletei know my wording was a bit misleading... as well as my name here, I am 32 years old, also hope to have afew years of stacking left ;)
Am a young guy traped in an old soul!
First - Canucks just won game one of the SCF. If this can happen anything is possible. Feeling tonight takes me back to the Gretzky era Oilers team.
ReplyDeleteSecond - someone asked if a big investment bank would ever hold a losing position for two years. the answer to this is yes - and they still do. They are called derivatives. junk. it is why the FED has bailed them out. If i ran my business the way these fucking assholes run their banks i would be broke and in jail.
Third - if it sounds like i am bitter it is because i am. It's not because of the fact the banks got bailed out and that they have been comitting what is essentially fraud for years it's because they are so fucking arrogant about how smart they apparently think they are.
Hey "Blythe" - guess what? If I had a money printer at my disposal i could rig whatever market i wanted too. This doesn't make you smart. It makes you a fucking crook. You and your friends are criminals with a license to commit crimes - nothing more - nothing less. And one day guys like AFRUM are gonna get pissed and the whole entire country will go up in smoke because you and your buddies are so consumed with hubris and arrogance you forgot to get the pitchforks out of the hands of the peasants before it was too late.
4th - since all markets are essentially rigged due to money printing and cronyism trading in them is essentially a gamble. It is no longer investing. If you own paper you will get burned. I got lucky. i am an amature who made a little money in paper then sold it and turned it into tangible stuff. I will continue to buy gold, silver and other shiny stuff on all dips because your paper house of cards is either going to fall apart under its own weight or someone who is seriously pissed with your bad behavior is going to burn it out from underneath you (sorry ranting again). in short if you are new to the PM game stick to physical and buy low. Buy all metals - not just silver. Leave the trading to the experts like Turd et al or you will get burned.
Don't say i didn't warn you.
Rant off.
Ken
ReplyDeleteI would expect the paper metals to be pulled down by a significant stock market correction. In analyzing the more probable outcome.....the Federal Reserve attempting to re-inflate equity assets through some type of liquidity injection....precious metals will make significant moves back above their previous highs. You can look at the smash down at the beginning of May and the current price of silver as evidence of the recovery mechanism (it moved back up over 30%). For me, precious metals may move up and down dramatically through paper market manipulation, but the debt ceiling will be moved another $2 trillion in the next couple of months....this will only cover, at best, the federal government through the end of 2012 realistically. Gold and silver will continue their march ever higher in response to these type of moves. Hope these thoughts help.
While I felt Silver was going to run up to $42-$43 before pulling back, if this is the beginning of the "end of QE2, no QE3" fear period, I'm having my doubts. It definitely looks like the headlines may be supporting such a period so if tomorrow shows further weakness in equities and PMs, it may be time to either go short for a bit or just sit on the sidelines until we get confirmation of direction or QE3, announced or not.
ReplyDeleteToday's action could have been a one day event but we do know for sure that QE3 is a certainty so we should expect the Fed will need to create the 'justification'.
FOREX UPDATE
ReplyDeleteEUR/USD - to consolidate. Undermined by intensifying investor risk aversion, Moody's downgrading its rating on Greece by 3 notches to "Caa1," which only 4 levels above "default"; drop in euro-zone final May manufacturing PMI to 7-month low of 54.6 from 58.0 in April (vs forecast for no change from previously estimated 54.8).
But EUR/USD losses tempered by negative USD sentiment, prospect of second bailout package for Greece; sovereign demand for euro. EUR/USD daily chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode. Support at 1.4307 (yesterday's low), then at 1.4255 (Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4125 (Friday's low), then 1.4067 (May 26 low), 1.4059 (100-day moving average) and 1.4011 (May 25 low). Resistance at 1.4400 (hourly chart), then at 1.4459 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4568 (61.8% Fibonacci correction of 1.4939-1.3968 May 5-May 23 decline), then 1.4588 (May 6 high) and 1.4710 (76.4% correction).
@ewc58,
ReplyDeleteI hear you. At this point I'm over 90% in physical. But that was funded almost exclusively by trading comex paper. I'm hoping to buy more soon.
For tonight, I'm thinking that gold will hold $1540 unless there is a big push down.
LOL at the trinity outcome...
ReplyDeletesilver still struggling to regain any foothold. battle's afoot to hold 37.15ish. should be telling how it plays out...
on the bright side:
1) it took a string of raids in a 24hr period to drive silver below the first major resistance on the daily, short of margin hikes it feels like they've blown their wad.
2) I'd guess many, if not most, stops got triggered on the trip to 36.4. Short of more extreme measures that's reassuring.
3) Just noticed this as I was typing. Not totally sure, but it looks like this dip played out almost exactly like May 11, albeit with a compressed range.
a) both 4 periods on the 8hr, 2 on daily from top to bottom.
b) on the daily, both met the EMA(50), crashed thru the next two lower EMA's (I'm using 12, 18, 50, 150, 200) before bottoming.
Based on that I'd guess we've seen the worst of it. Hope is more like it, more raids and there goes my theory. But if things continue to follow the patters of the 11th/12, looks like the 31st/1st are playing out exactly the same...
Titus, was just joshin' ya mate. Good on ya for alchemizing the paper gains into metal. Its The Real Thing. I think a 1540 floor is strong too.
ReplyDeleteGramp, gotcha. Stack on. Geritol is still years away for both of us. Okay, maybe a smidge closer for me. Hell, I'll just stay with ACV, Spirulina and Chlorella. They can keep the Geritol. Chances are it's just as phony as fiat paper and the rest of the crap they try to sell us anyway.
FWIW, my view and my plan: Silver found support today right at its uptrend line that dates back to the May 12 low. Silver has bounced off that trend line twice before (May 17, May 23) and both of those event were buy points not sell points. (Today's low was also the 38% fib retracement from this little rally). I am loaded up on GLD and SLV July calls that I bought in mid-May, and will only sell on a decisive breach of the trend line. Otherwise, I'm riding this out in keeping with the Turd Timeline.
ReplyDeleteAfter the big raid today and Turds post I went straight to my local dealer to get the lowest prices and btfd. Mostly junk silver but I got it all right at spot, no premium. Complete set of franklin halves, one each year from each mint, then 79 mercury dimes, 3 1996 ASE's (spot plus $5) and a few generic rounds, Ron Paul 'liberty' dollars are my new fav.
ReplyDeleteuptofreedom I agree with you and am thinking along the same lines. Long and strong in paper, hoping for gradual ascent tonight and tomorrow.
that took way longer to type that I thought it would. Guess I'm feeling guilty about not making one like it last night, was way late by the time I got the idea a correction was in and it wasn't a sure thing until around noon when I finally commented (12:24 and 12:53) but at that point I'm sure shit was happening too fast...
ReplyDeletegood thing is, at this point it looks like a pretty minor one, if my may 11th similarity theory holds out...
@SB - right on, brother! If I had spare FRN's on hand I would've... Blew my wad there near #1.
ReplyDelete12.55pm Asian Zulu
ReplyDeleteSMS FROM FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU FROM THE PACIFIC THEATER
Bravo company, our Indian brigade have just turned up at scorched earth site.
Attempting ramparts construction to mid 38s.
The masala boyz have had a heavy breakfast.
Hoping that this is extra energy for them rather then slowing them down.
I wish them well.
hope so. the aussies sure didn't put up much of a fight...
ReplyDelete"The masala boyz have had a heavy breakfast".
ReplyDeleteOMG you are killing me JoeKa Fook Yu!
MARSHALL FOOK YU
ReplyDeleteGiven the tenuous morale of the divisions scattered about the globe, your leadership is inspirational and much appreciated. Some less high-minded troops have wondered if your avatar could be given closer inspection... as a further morale-building exercise, of course...
As you may recall, the various dignitaries speaking on silver (Sprott/Embry/Turk) predicted wild ($3-5) intraday swings in silver as things began to spin out of control. I suspect we may be beginning to see that.
If we can keep the current rampart-building momentum going, we can be back to $38 (and beyond) in no time.
uptofreedom the charts already seem to be confirming your May theory, we've held and passed 37.15 already and now 37.20. In paper I thought 37.80 was the dip and bought there (doh!) but still holding and betting we see 38 by Friday. I was surprised how cheap the junk stuff was! Now my wad is blown! lolling about trinity b too:) RIP
ReplyDeleteAfrums black Friday revisited sounds pretty sweet. I'm a peaceful person but I'm sure I am among many here who wouldn't mind watching a banker or two do the dangle dance! Thats what stacking is all about!
Silver is the grease that lubricates the axle that turns the wheel that makes what goes around come around. Dance bankers dance!
still too early to call. 30min's bullish, 1hr's bearish. I sure hope so though... :)
ReplyDeleteMorning Joe
ReplyDeleteThanks for holding fort.
Guess your smackdown comment was more accurate than you realised!
Did you buy back in? How are your charts looking?
Anyone else notice this? Here's the comex contract closes:
ReplyDeleteJun-11 37.689
Jul-11 37.694
Aug-11 37.707
Sep-11 37.717
Dec-11 37.737
Jan-12 37.726 <--- Backwardation starts
Mar-12 37.699
May-12 37.665
Jul-12 37.64
Sep-12 37.62
Dec-12 37.597
Jan-13 37.566
As we move closer to Jan, you would expect that the start of backwardation would begin to move out as well. But Jan 2012 is holding tight.
Who would want to bet on delivery of Comex silver in Jan 2012? Not me.
Mr Ferguson,
ReplyDeleteI do not agree that it is a valid conclusion to claim that a reclassification of inventory from 'registered' to 'eligible' makes a default of a short more likely.
The preferred inventory level of the COMEX dealers and market makers is rather a consequence of the silver term structure. With silver in contango, the opportunity cost of holding physical silver is lower than that of holding US$ cash, and so it is preferable to hold a large inventory. With silver in backwardation, the opportunity cost of holding silver is higher than that of holding US$ cash, and so they will try to keep the physical inventory small.
You will see that all short contracts will be delivered on. Delivery will happen towards the end of the Notice Period, and the metal to be delivered may even be checked into the 'registered' inventory only one or two days before delivery. But they will deliver.
For details, please take a look at Backwardation and Declining COMEX Inventory.
Regards,
Victor
Heya NCOT... still impatient? you might have to get used to it, if my may11 theory holds up the 1st line of resistance to be broken took a while to retake. 37.6 could take a while...
ReplyDeletea relative while, that is. price range was compressed, no reason time range won't be... still could be a battle that takes a few days though.
ReplyDeleteLIEUTENANT CD
ReplyDeleteYes you may examine further my custom avatar monogram.
Due to the nature of the squarish constraint, I could not squeeze in more of myself for your titular gratification.
However if you so wish to further inspect the weapons dumps between my Union Jack tie, be aware that I am fully loaded with explosive mini-pineapples. They are uncocked.
This is purely precautionary in case I should be captured by Charlie.
In that instance I will give them a "you FUK MI, i FOOK YU" send-off.
Regards,
FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
word ver: flogr
P.S. Please do not 'flogr' to my custom avatar. That would be sickbay worthy.
@Victor - you are ignoring your own argument -- Comex inventory is declining b/c of backwardation -- but "persistent backwardation in the monetary metals indicates potential counterparty failure among the bullion banks." The latter is the problem, the former is incidental and a symptom.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if your premise is true -- why would "they" suddenly decide to move significant stockpiles of silver OUT of registered status only now, a few weeks before they have to be moved BACK to registered status again to make delivery? What you are saying makes theoretical sense, but does not appear to match the empirical observation.
OFFICER CADET NCOT
ReplyDeleteMy previous smackdown comment was deadly serious masked under the guise of comedy.
It has been my experience that i am not taken seriously due to my immense beauty and hot dang drippin sexy.
Therefore I have decided now to lead from the front and cheerlead Bravo company against the bandits.
As a result, I have monogrammed my name FOOK YU on the rear of my hotpants with the view that this could prove inspirational.
Yours drippingly (coz its hot out here),
FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
@uptofreedom. Not impatient just hopefull this the worst and wondering about pepper analasys.
ReplyDelete@joeKa. Lol. I have an image in my head that I don't really want now! The hotpants may work for hux but not me!
Keep cheering!
ncot-
ReplyDeletehttp://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/
FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU,
ReplyDeleteIt was mainly the spiked (?) pink gloves and your original observation about the legginess of the operative that you chose for this mission that spiked intrigue, flogr-ing is strictly out of the question.
Enclosed are two pieces of (long-winded, strategic rather than tactical) analysis on our current global economic predicament, and some thoughts on what happens when and after the SHTF:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-outlaw-josey-wales-part-four
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17568.html
LT 1st CL. CD
PS: Can we expect to be calling you Generalissimus JoeKA soon? If you can finagle a $38 by the time I get up, I would be honored to bestow that title upon you myself, Sir...
Ben Bernanke's surprise.
ReplyDelete@NCOT - the more I think about it, these smackdowns are losing steam. May continue up sooner rather than later if this is the best they can muster.
ReplyDeleteI think the battle for 37.6 will be epic, but then once that's beat we'll retake 38.20 in no time...
er 37.9... That's the EMA(50) we've been hitting. or they both could be epic. All I know is the longer it takes, the more support is built up, so the longer, the better imo...
ReplyDelete14.09 ASIAN ZULU
ReplyDeleteNOTES FROM THE PACIFIC THEATER
Dear Bravo company,
The masala boyz are a bit leggy today.
It's hot outside and the mosquitoes are killer.
The stupid pest fogger is also smokin the air at the wrong time. So its a little hard to see.
I doubt we will encounter significant Charlie pressure at 37.33 but they will wake up near 37.80.
Our crack Mission 38 team has a job cut-out for them.
I also formally announce that Mission 38 will be headed by two of our finest Inglourious Basterds:
1. Major D Homey - codename BLACKCLOWN
2. Master Sergeant Green Hair Boy - codename GREENBOY
As this may be kamikaze ops, you may never ever see them again returning from this mission.
Pls give them your last respects on your way out.
Good luck troops. May the Turd be with us.
Yours glisteningly (bec I'm perspiring),
FIELD MARSHALL FOOK YU
@cookie, thanks for that link.
ReplyDelete@upto freedom I agree with your thoughts about the smackdowns and I'm surprised at myself with calm I can be with it compared to earlier this year!
As for my last post I meant Peoples Analasys not Pepper, I don't care what a cartoon pig thinks of silver... Although...
Anyway, my avatar says it all!
DC,
ReplyDeletevery well observed. Yes, the fact that there is again backwardation indicates that the market prices in some counterparty risk. The risk premium is bigger than the US$ interest rate plus carrying charges for the silver.
The question is whether there will be a default and, if yes, when. The point of my comment is that you cannot possibly anticipate the default by watching COMEX 'registered' inventory, simply because by arbitrage, every other market participant is influenced by the backwardation and changes their behaviour, too.
So it a default might occur suddenly even though there is plenty of 'registered' inventory. Or it might happen that COMEX 'registered' inventory is run down close to zero, but there is no default for a decade.
Victor
I think the next massive smackdown is going to be in equities. I mean come on, the DOW is still over 12,000 on the tail end of $4 gasoline and 10% unemployment. It's the 2+3=7 scenario all over again like '08.
ReplyDeleteUpdate from Fook Mi, Chief MEDVAC Officer:
ReplyDeleteHave been treating injured soldiers here near scorched earth site.
Litany of medical issues from busted nuts to ass rashes. It's been a busy day and we're running out of suppositories.
Chatting with the men has revealed that the Union Jacks are on-site and may attempt to assist in the rampart strengthening.
Some of the men injured at the deepest fighting in the South say that we need to hold Avenue 36.35 because it holds a bridge to strategic breaches into 35s.
Some of the scouts have come back with the following Charlie GPS data:
H5 PIVOT: 37.01
S1: 36.81
S2: 36.69
S3: 36.49
I will advise my sista FM Fook Yu on these developments.
Yours achingly (coz it hurts so bad),
CMO Fook Mi
i'm not saying anything..... dont wanna jinx it....
ReplyDeleteif i'm reading this right, silver will waterfall if closes below 37 today. is that a correct assesment?
ReplyDeleteRECRUIT TOMO
ReplyDelete37 is the pivot from price could swing from either way because right now there is no trend. If further bearishness exists in equities then yes it will breach further down again.
Or traders may feel that the selling has been overdone and may scoop a bargain
We still need a BoS to help us out here.
They have gone AWOL.
IMHO this is not an environment to be a hero and try to catch falling knifes.
ReplyDeleteInstead the peak around April 29 - May 2 was likely the top of the right S of a giant SHS pattern. With assets and markets across the board now moving down for the next 1-2 years.
Of course with wild up and down swings in between. Of course with not all markets moving in sync all the time.
But the major theme is possibly out of risky assets and hence a drain of liquidity.
So one should have a close and free of expectations and commitments - look at the daily and weekly charts starting with April 29 - May 2. And further check whether there is a new trend developing with lower lows and lower highs.
That in the end might lead to the recognition that not all is so well in PMs land - and that this starts looking more and more like late 2007 or summer 2008.
If true then buying the dips might not be the strategy of choice as it is fighting the main trend. Maybe it pays more to look out for markets which are already in a clear downtrend.
The point to be made is - it might not be that important what gold or silver will do today or tomorrow - but what the majority of the markets are doing right now and since early May. As that tells you where there are the highest odds for profits.
In other words - where is more money to be made? - in longing gold and silver against the main trend of a drain of liquidity - or in joining the maintrend which is down? In which boat will you sleep like a baby - and in which will you have the sleepless nights of 2008 again? Recall the SLV put buyer which expects SLV 25 or so?
Physical is another story - we all know.
But on the other hand why buy phyiscal now when you can get it cheaper later? Why not invest that money into already trending markets (i.e. Treasuries moving higher, or DAX moving lower, ...) - and buy the physical later when the next bottom seems to be in?
And finally - I do not want you to talk out of the metals. Instead I just want you to be aware of the risks which are increasing by the day.
PMs were not able to withstand the selloff in 2008 - and it is highly unlikely they can withstand the coming selloff.
So why trying to fight the tape - while you can make easy money in that you go with the flow?
I sure ain't waiting until silver drops more. These days I'm buying whenever I get fiat. Sure it could go down -- I don't care. For me, physical = sleeping well.
ReplyDeleteLet's enjoy the summer breeze. Go outside and run.
ReplyDeleteOdds are high you will get it around 20-25% cheaper (than now) in a month or two.
ReplyDeleteIf 2011 a repeat of 2010 and 2009 - then the low will be around late July.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the chart for this time last week... hovering around the same point before it went up..
ReplyDeleteI know there's no science in that but I'm calmer now than I was then!
Kiwi reporting for duty!
ReplyDeleteHappy to see that silver held it's own last night. Looks like the dollar is slinking back into it's cave, and the market indicies are up, so with a little luck we can start the forward movement again.
well the action is finally beginning. oil rocketing.
ReplyDelete@ tomo - yeh, was starting to worry on that one...
ReplyDeletehope we see Turds target on WTI :) No Hurry on that one for me, thats to pay for a little anniversary trip for me and the Mrs!
OT but ellucidates what we face...
ReplyDeletehttp://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/for-one-whistle-blower-no-good-deed-goes-unpunished/
FROM FM FOOK YU
ReplyDeleteTroops, what a busy day for me trying to repair this breach here on the war-front.
I took a nap and some cookies and it still ain't fixed!?!
What?? Oil's rocketing??
Time to fill up our tanks then...
Yours boringly (coz i'm bored),
FM Fook Yu
Let's think about the future and imagine what/where will silver be in 6 months to one year out. Our energy should not be placed in the day or week ahead, but on the intermediate and longer term perspective. Shock and awe are ahead. Ups and downs are guaranteed. I assume the higher we go the more volatility we will see. Seems like many of the experts have provided this analysis.
ReplyDeleteI hold my bullion but do trade silver and gold vis a vis options and ETF. I'm learning to buy on the down streams and sell during the upstreams. I haven't nailed it yet, but trying to let the emotions not control me. like one of the most respective persons in the resources industry has said "people like to buy when things go up and sell when things go down....they have to change their mindset."
We all know that silver and gold will continue to go up over the next year, 2 years, 5 years. If we panic every time Larry, curly and moe come in and smack it down and go crazy ya all going to have heart attacks and won't be able to enjoy all the money you'll make in the longer term.
The Turd is King. Fred the nubie
JoeKa.. I hope theres more to that Avatar pic of yours.. wheres the bottom half?
ReplyDelete@NCOT
ReplyDeleteThe bottom half is classified, I hear rumours there's some sort of secret weapon involved.
LOL
@All,
ReplyDeleteYour thoughts on Victor the Cleaner?
His writing is starting to strike me as being the product of an academic hired by the EE to take the opposite side of key constructs of our Phyzzcentric view of the paper markets.
Or in blunter language, we cry foul, he says no, this is perfectly normal, every time.
wdver= ditesac - is that what they call them these days?
I'll have to google image it!
ReplyDelete@Lester
ReplyDeletethere's a saying here in the uk..
"do I look bothered?"
(regarding what he said not what you said!)
@Field Marshall Fook Yu,
ReplyDeleteIt is possible we have an infiltrator inside the perimeter. Please issue new secret handshake ASAP
pfc Lazy over
From the frontlines by FM Fook Yu:
ReplyDeleteBy popular request.
My bottom half taken last summer.
War takes a drag on pert behinds.
We all try our best.
Yours rear-endingly (coz my read is ended),
FM Fook Yu
PFC LESTER
ReplyDeleteGreat idea my privates! I mean PRIVATE!
New secret hand identity validation steps:
1. insert hand at top of my avatar
2. slide hand down thru slot for immediate biometric ident
It could work. NASA said so.
Yours slipperyingly (coz i'm smooth liddat),
FM Fook Yu
NCOT,
ReplyDeleteI'm not bothered, just trying to understand motivation so that I can contextualize his writing.
. . .he stuck in his thumb and pulled out a plum
ReplyDeletePFC LESTER
ReplyDeleteI hope they didn't look like this...?
@JoeKa
ReplyDeletesurely that would be 'bottometric ident'?
You mean it wasn't a plum? . . . Oh, what a dumb guy am I.
ReplyDeleteNCOT - LOL!
anyway.. can we push silver over 37.40 now please...or even 37.60
ReplyDelete@PFC LESTER: Yes it was. Dried Plum.
ReplyDelete@PFC NCOT: Yes, that's what I said. Bioasstric ident.
*on the warfront - the boys are refusing to fight. they're sayin "the yanks cawsed (sic) this shit, they can sure as heck clean up their own shit!"
Thought,
ReplyDeleteOnly on the internet would someone prefer to show their ass to the public rather than their face.
Lot of ur
ReplyDeleteThank you for opinion, my thinking is similar
If equities go lower pjs will be dragged down - silver more, gold less
But big fingers will try to keep stocks up - lowering margins, bailouts etc
What do you think will be the catalyst causing 2008 ?
I don't know - simultaneous eu+ us debt crash + china bubble burst in any form
Really? This summer?
all quiet on the western front?!
ReplyDeletejust realised... both silver and Kate Middleton got royally fu*ked on 1st May..
ReplyDeleteJust sayin...
wat the hell. we haven't gone anywhere with silver today...
ReplyDeletenot able to march foward. looking like shit on the eastern front
lol @ the dollar scaring me but never reaching 75.1 as expected. Wonder if this will last. Cmon US Trash, don't let me down!
ReplyDeletePls refer to the non-action post just above:
ReplyDeleteFook Yu said:
*on the warfront - the boys are refusing to fight. they're sayin "the yanks cawsed (sic) this shit, they can sure as heck clean up their own shit!"
Silver is clearly on the hit list. People know it, so we're not gonna be getting as many buyers until the dollar completely tanks.
ReplyDeleteWe retouched our lows from yesterday at 74.345, glad to see that. Now hopefully we'll head down towards 74 later today/tomorrow.
It's all about the gold. Take me back to 1550 baby.
Morning ( coffee mug )
ReplyDeleteLot of ur,
ReplyDeletejust went back and read your lengthy post. Lots could be written in response to it, but I'll write only this.
Any paper position carries risk at any point in the market cycle. This (paper) market no longer trades freely. My phyzz predates 2008. It is still worth as many ounces as it was when I bought it. The number of ounces did not vary one iota during the gyrations of 2008.
What do I care of the possibility of a repeat of 2008 except for my gambling account denominated in paper? And make no mistake, ANY paper holdings are gambling at this point in time. But that's the sport in it now isn't it? ;-)
Good morning Admiral Shill.
ReplyDeleteHow's goes the Colombian?
Also Fook Mi says hi.
word ver: reverssio (italian for reverse)
@Lester.. you call this sport?
ReplyDeleteAt least I now say I participate in some sport!
CK here btw. Google giving me problems on this blogger bs.
ReplyDeleteAnyways..
If anything, use this downtime on silver to stack some physical PM... and if it goes lower than 37, buy more.
Over the course of the next 2-3 years, I will assure you that you will WISH you bought as much as you could have from $33-38, even if it does go lower due to manipulation.
@Kasscoo,
ReplyDeleteAhem! That's the Euro that's trash. We're US POS, thank you very much!
I'm buying today. F'em.
ReplyDeleteBeen flat (trade acct) since stop at 37.50.
ReplyDeleteWe may get some up/down in the range of 37-39, but I'm officially a seasonal bear now.
I might play some day action this summer or not, but in the near term, I will be shorting like a mofo come 40, 41, 42 (if we get there). On any broader chart the next few weeks out, those numbers are pretty extended (Bollingers, RSI) and precipitate a nice fall or a parabola to 50. Which do you think is more likely...again seasonally?
Where the season settles is anyone's guess (meaning "how low"), but the weekly chart, looking at RSI (which strips the price out and only shows you overbought/oversold), greatly resembles 2008.
We had our April peak, May topped weaker and we're moving into double-top on that soon (again all RSI pattern). That dt should be in the next weeks and only a few dollars higher. From the lower dt, if the 2008 pattern holds, my expectation is a test of 30 which would cause just about everybody to cr@p their pants. I would then be buying again, but not in force until it confirmed the base. From the base I would rebuild a very strong portfolio for a recovery ala 2009 to new long term highs. Same with gold, but gold will be stronger to the down and even stronger to the up. This may be where we get 2000 gold, but not before we see 1400s and maybe even 1300s first.
All guesses, but backed by some solid larger chart patterns. Because I do not have a crystal ball, I will hold my core through this in case I'm so wrong that the core will make me a millionaire. But I will hold off significant buying with new cash because winning the lottery is pretty rare, losing is common.
oh joy.. the yanks are at work...
ReplyDeleteGood day. My take on things is that the equities markets will slide (and maybe somewhat quickly) until the replacement for QE3 is clear to big money. Every non-MSM analyst says equities are in a free-money bubble, due to fall. If the money evaporates for a bit, they'll fall.
ReplyDeleteSo, the question then is what impact on silver (and gold) would it have if an extended decline over 1-2 months, say 15-20%, occurs?
FM Fook Yu mentioned we have no trend. That is very important for newbie traders. No trend, lots of volatility in a range... you get spooked or stopped out a lot. Many small losses, like death from a thousand cuts.
Wait for a clear trend with confirmation.
Oh - sorry, not changing my avatar to the war theme just yet. Took me two months to find Bozo... and it suits me better. :-)
Thank you FM Fook Yu.
- Jim M.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comex-registered-silver-bullion-inventories-fall-sharp-385-two-weeks-%E2%80%93-risk-comex-silver-def
ReplyDeletedoes that mean all paper silver goes to zero too?
All good General JoeKa Fook Yu, just locked in a nice physical purchase of some new shiny, so all is well indeed.
ReplyDeleteBring on the games.
:)
We're for sure being held down right now. Hopefully by the time the US open comes we're gonna skyrocket with this falling zombie dollar.
ReplyDelete@Pailin, many thanks for your explanation. We often forget to look further out.
ReplyDeleteRegarding COMEX default, I'm not convinced. I don't understand it, not even knowledgeable much less an expert. But we've heard this concern at fever pitch at least twice this year. Yet, the COMEX managed to deliver each time.
I've since read two explanations that seem plausible (to the uniformed idiot that I am). Seems Houdini keeps getting out of the box. Maybe the box has a few secret doors we can't see.
Is this time different? Maybe, maybe not. But I see it as a low-percentage outcome with a potentially huge negative risk to traders. Phys buyers should be fine, since if they're trying to avoid default, they'll drive the price down for you.
With all this background, what do y'all think the current differential between COMEX spot and physical is? PSLV is typically 10-20%, right? Some of the big dealers online... what are they charging?
Thx, Jim M.
WTI seems to be holding up..
ReplyDelete@CK: if i were you, i'd be looking at the stock indices such as the SPX500 as the leading indicator for Silver today and not just the POSX.
ReplyDelete@Lot of Ur, which alternate market are you considering? Short Russell 2000?
ReplyDeletespoke too soon...
ReplyDeleteOK, hyperinflation hypothetical...
ReplyDeleteWhen dollar finally rolls over big-time, some of us will still have some fiats we're trading ETF options with. What would you do?
My thoughts...
1) Call options for commodities (oil, agriculture, gold)
2) PM's if any still available.
3) alternate account denominated in "something else relatively stable."
4) Land?
Your thoughts?
- Jim M.
@CK, I agree with JoeKa. Seems like short-term correlates with March 14th attack in rhythm with stocks. Same "panic everywhere" feel to it. Bounce after 3/14 came strong when stocks showed some life.
ReplyDelete- Jim M.
@Jim
ReplyDeletere: PSLV (of which I have a large position)
It may be time to realize that the premium over spot is indicative of systemic backwardation aka failure of spot to be honored. This has always been the case for physical. The explanation was the cost of forming the physical, storing and transiting same. That's fine. No problem. But not the case for PSLV. The silver is vaulted and that cost if taken out periodically from NAV, yet the premium persists. The ongoing high premium I take to be a leading indicator of a much greater problem, that of paper spot being discounted (vs PSLV price being premium).
If you accept the above, then the next question is how much discounting can there be to paper spot long term? Absolute zero? Any serious shenanigans at COMEX (whether it's called default or delivery problems are solved through various gaming methods - margin hikes, sell only rules, other new rules we can't guess at yet, whatever) will crush paper spot price, possibly to zero or near zero. The result will be a complete disconnect between paper spot and physical real trade price. PSLV premium would spread out greatly. SLV would be crushed too as those with enough shares to basket would redeem for bars and smaller investors would rush the exits as stops were run all the way down. That would be the end of SLV and paper spot. Very dangerous scenario (low reward, high risk) for those that think a COMEX default or great loss of faith is imminent or ever likely to occur.
The end of the world never happens overnight, neither will the end of paper silver. But the trend is, over time, for paper silver to be worth less and less and physical to be worth more and more, as identified by widening premiums (if you must call it that) or discounts (for paper).
We're all playing a game where we assume the rule is paper sucks. As such, it's only reasonable to also assume that paper silver is only marginally better than paper currency. Right? Fun to play one against the other (like playing EUR/USD pair!) but neither is expected by any on this blog to WIN in absolute terms against the other...right?
RAID RAID RAIDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD...
ReplyDelete@ Jim
I think the best plan is to buy as much PM's as possible. That's the last thing these manipulators want. They don't want us having real money. Scum fuck parasites that they are.
Farmland or land in a rural/fertile area.. preferrably outside of the US cuz this place is destined for HELL.
Once the herd starts getting in the PM game I'm gonna sell and buy as much property as possible. Hopefully the paper manipulation doesn't kill me and I'm able to have real estate bringing me cash flow. And some beautiful houses in south america-asia to visit :)