Monday, June 13, 2011

Late Night With Sweetness

After a late night during which my buddy, Sweetness, filled The Turd with Hendrick's gin and Pine Ridge wine, The Turd is moving a bit slowly this morning. Coffee helps, however.

Accordingly, since I am away from my hidden bunker, I am unable to post charts this morning. I'll have a full update for you later today.

Gold bottomed overnight near 1525. Again, if we're going to see another stab at 1550, we really need to see 1520-25 hold as support. IF it fails, I think we can be quite confident that the "summer doldrums" will have officially begun...a rangebound trade between 1460 and 1550 until late summer/early fall.

The silver chart does not look good at all. A break of the lows from 6/3 at 35.06 would be a very bad sign so that level must be watched very closely.

At least the stockmarket is called higher and crude is firming up so maybe the PMs can reverse and put a little distance between themselves and those critical support levels. Keep your fingers crossed but stay diligent.

Have a great day! TF


  1. And there was me thinking that Sweetness was Mrs T!!

  2. HSBC May Phase Out US Credit-Card Business

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. Good Morning Turd,

    Sorry to hear your running on half steam this AM. Not to worry even half a turd is better than no turd at all.

    Metal Mike

  5. I think I am joining the short silver bandwagon for a "short" time - so good news for you bulls it will now probably go up :)

  6. new site joy this morning?
    Was so looking forward. :(

    Never mind...good things to those who wait! :)


  7. Hey Metal Mike. That's a hilarious avatar!
    Who's it of??

  8. @everybody
    10 days ago I put on a XAG short to hedge 1/3 of my long core PSLV and physical holdings. I wanted that peace of mind against waterfalls. It was an experiment too, I wanted to see how a hedge "felt", vs. playing paper strictly for gain.

    Coincidentally, over the weekend, I read this -

    I found that reading very compelling. And worrisome. I'm open-minded enough to think (now) there's at least a 50/50 chance that there are no naked shorts of size in silver. Those positions may be covering silver in other places. Just like my paper short was. Not only that but maybe the shortage story is a gift to EE, maybe there's a lot more physical that's been barged off-books by them to allow the story run room. That's enough risk for me to now think of silver as a range trade and gold as money. I could be wrong, that's why I'll continue to hold PSLV and physical. But I could be right and that's why I'm turning to buying more physical gold, but not really any more silver.

  9. TradingPaper,
    You and I are of the same mind. Thank you. My posts here range from worry and more worry about all that is going on ..all the way over to total peace because I know in whose hands we are held and ultimately how this all ends. It's the battle within. Those of faith know that there is a higher power that is ultimately in control of all.

    We are called to prepare (TF has that exactly right) ...and the rest is up to Him. We are not in control ultimately though and that's not a bad thing. The REALLY GOOD news is that those who think they are in control..... aren't either. And I wouldn't want to be in the shoes of anyone perpetrating all of this on humanity.

    Keep preparing. Keep stacking. Keep helping others when and how you can. (And I'm talking especially to me here) But know ultimately that it's not the silver and gold that will have mattered. It's what you did with that silver and gold matter how few or how many the ounces you had.

  10. BTW you guys should visit the Hendricks gin website. It's kinda cool looking.
    It'll look cooler if you're hungova.

  11. I think we should have a big yellow hat prize contest again- whoever gets "first!" on the first post of the new site... now THAT will be an epic first.

  12. Pining,
    I love your idea.. but I think it should be a quality first post.. ..not just "First!"

    But that begs the question..... What is quality. ...Maybe "First!" is quality to some folks. :D

    "Bacon!" ....would be quality to me. :D

  13. I know we are all looking for the dollar to keep rallying, since it looks like it is in for a bounce.

    Last week I thought would be big for risk assets as the dollar closed the week under 74. After thinking about it over the weekend, I realized that if any big movements in the dollar were to come, it would have to DOJI (go sideways) for at least a week.

    I look at the eur/usd now and it seems that the euro may be starting a new uptrend (temporarily at least) against the dollar after finding support near 1.43.

    My point being, the market makers know what we are looking for and are sure to keep us on our toes. Don't overcommitt to one belief, and let the market tell us what is giong on.

    I wish I could take my advice more often.


  14. After saying that, I think there is a greater chance that silver retests low 35 area... It didn't get knocked down here to at least test lows (and possibly more?). Hopefully it can do this without gold making lower lows and hanging out too long below 1525 (or at all anymore).

  15. Scottj88 said:
    Don't overcommitt to one belief, and let the market tell us what is giong on.

    Excellent idea!
    Everyones on form today it seems. :)

  16. Gee, wine and gin, what a combo. Celebrating the new site opening? I can't wait to see it. Good luck.

  17. There she goes ladies and gents.
    There she goes...

  18. Good morning,

    Rolled over a few 401K's into ROTHs a year or so back.
    Paid the whopping tax on them in 2010.

    Can I withdrawal a portion of the funds (no more than the original rollover) tax free (to purchase phiz)?

    New site rolling out today?

  19. I hear lots of fear, yet see lots of surprising green on my screen.

    Bought CDE this morning at 23.67.

    I'm back from vacation and ready to trade me some fiat.

  20. nasa emergency operations issues preparedness alert to employees and their families

  21. ONe of these days, someone is going to buy a share of TRE adn we'll see what the dang price is. TRE looks buyable around 6.60. That was a crazy pop end of day friday. Wish I had been on it.

    CDE popping. Sweet.

  22. Aug gold is officially 2% from the recent high. Quite a sell off.

    Gold 20day MA held last night and then was pierced but didn't crash for the GLD. This is where I finish building my position on this pullback. I'm done buying until after 1600.

    Martin, let's see that engulfing white bar key reversal.

    Good luck all. I hope everyone does well this week.

  23. EXK, ABX, GPL, PAAS, CDE, NEM-- all green. With the metals getting hammered, this is odd

  24. ORKO and SSL continuing to fire on all cylinders.

  25. SSK,

    Look at Fortuna, up 9%. Something is going on.

  26. Victory Report

    Tax Free, yes. 10% Penalty Free, no. Unless you are over 59.5 years old.

    Need to meet the 5 year rule in order to escape the 10% penalty. Counting from Jan 1st of the year you did the conversion.

  27. SSK

    Yes, I'm also seeing a huge variance between my usual benchmark GDXJ (sharply red) and my miners portfolio (nicely green). Very strange.

    Panther, Fortuna, Brigus, and Avino all up 7% or more. WTF?

  28. @ JoeKa | GREENBOY

    Just an ol' miner pic I got some years ago. Kinda looked like I feel some days so I kept it.

  29. TF...I kind of wrote this with you in mind. Hope to see the new site up soon....

  30. FVITF is on fire. Any idea why ferretflat?

    Sold my CDE at 24.05. Nice start to the week. I want to trade this one again and again.

  31. @Shill -- how reassuring -- especially linking the bit about attacks from "outside forces" and the assertion that NASA is on the forefront of defenses not just here on Earth, but BEYOND as well...
    While I laud the sentiment of having a preparedness plan, this was truly disquieting. Any guesses on whether the near-term likelihood of catastrophic events is now HIGHER or LOWER?

  32. Gin is a wicked buzz by itself, plus wine, yikes! TF is in Zzzz-land right now.
    TF...a mild, gin Bloody Mary is a pleasant wake-up tonic;-)

    My first time back on after a 3 week google
    sign-in problem. It wouldn't let me sign on until today ,finally.
    I've been following and checking in everyday to see what the conversation and vibe is.
    Looking forward to the new website anyday now just like the rest of you.
    I was hoping the new site was up today so that I could register and log-in there instead of trying to sign-in through Google anymore.

    Feels good to be back in the TF herd :-)

  33. I have stacked assets in PMs, cash, equities, bonds, mutual funds and (AFAIK) my house is well above water (still). So, I'd say I'm not over committed to one belief.

    However, the strength of my spidey-sense sez cash is right now the best thing to accumulate followed by PMs. I need to get my drafty house insulated. I think that might be my next best investment! AFAIK, contractors still like to be compensated in FRN's...

  34. Martin's minions are pressing. Nice.

  35. stock market is so oversold, it's hopefully correcting up, hence miners being dragged along. hoping this lasts a few days!

  36. DPH,

    Welcome back.

    Anyone know what is going on with TRE. Not one share sold this morning.

  37. @ level,
    what is your interpretation of armstrong's predictions for today/tom? i thought we were supposed to see worse things, i.e. serious lows. this is not the low for metals in my belief...

  38. Maybe this explains Fortuna? Bear Creek has been the poster child for problems with Peruvian miners lately, and there seems to be good news on that front.

  39. long time no see, DPH. Welcome Back!!

  40. Seems like good drilling news out of Kaminak this morning.

  41. Silver setting up for Shock N Awe.

  42. FYI:

    TRE is now trading under TRX due to the mix-up with the Canadian TRE which is a chinese fraud/disaster which was confusing investors. Hence, TRX.

  43. Apple employee seeking union: Report

    Appl is toast

  44. GDX and HUI are about flat, but GDXJ is still down quite a bit. There's got to be a big component of GDXJ (and not in, or lightly weighted in the others) getting killed, but I don't know which one yet.

    ANV and CGR are not happy today, but I don't know if they could account for the variance.

  45. WHat do you think of this guys take on things?

  46. @ssl

    New ticker for TRE as of 6/13/2011 is TRX.

  47. @cookie

    I'm no Armstrong expert, and my comment was a little tongue in cheek with a hint bit of optimism. It's my understanding that he was looking for a bottom the week on 6/13/11 not necessarily today.

    Also, if I recall correctly, his economic confidence model dates are intended to predict "liquidity" events, not necessarily market movements. You probably know all this already.

    Maybe today is the day that I get another credit card offer in the mail?

  48. Bought CDE at 23.88.

    I have my eye on only the GDX and a few miners. IF the GDX stays under -.10 I'm buying. If it drops lower, I'm bailing.

  49. TRE is now trading under the symbol TRX to avoid any confusion between itself and Sino-Forest.

  50. Revett Minerals just announced it will be joining the Russel 3000. Thoughts? I am a noobie when it comes to interpreations. I would assume good?

  51. 11:04a


    Fed buys $4.6 billion in Treasurys

  52. Scottj,

    Good enough for a 3% gain. I'd take a profit and run.

  53. Stewart: Focus on the absolute long position of the banksters, not the difference between their longs and shorts, when analysing the COT report data. The banksters are silver dealers, and while a component of the short position is used to play market price games to cause funds and retail investors to take loss booking or price chasing actions, most of it is simply a dealing position. The key numbers you want to focus on are the changes in the bankster long position, and both the short and long positions held by the fundsters. At the very top of today’s “IQ of 1 or higher” list, should be the FACT that the banksters have NEVER owned ZERO silver long positions, no matter where price is on the dollar grid. It’s an asset, and they understand that fact. The all in or all out action of retail investors and most funds is idiocy.Anyone blowing out silver for dollars, are basically saying that the 50,000 plus bankster long contract position built into this silver weakness against the dollar is an exercise in stupidity by the banksters.
    Look, carefully, at the number of bankster silver longs. As the dollar reached its peak against silver in 2008, the banksters were carrying 52,000 longs, while the leveraged fundsters had loss-booked themselves down to just 21,000 contracts.

  54. Great news from an atc outpost gossan at
    Ocelot : 145 g/t Ag, 3.36 % Pb, 11.65% Zn.
    Happy half hour for harfwit. Hiccup.

  55. Is there new news on SSL that I haven't been able to find? Is this just a delayed reaction to the Black Fox mine news?

    I told myself a long time ago that I would stop buying at any level over a buck, so I guess I'm going to have to find a new vehicle.

  56. @ SSK

    I am more of a swing trader (or I like to think so at least)...

    Revett has been almost immune to what is going on around it since it had its flush out crash to the 200day MA. Maybe that's why you make the big bucks and I sit here frustrated, but holding still. I think Revett makes a move to the $5.00 range again as soon as we have the next upmove in silver. Old high is 4.50 recently, and currently at 4.47/4.48. If it can pop above, wouldn't be surprised to have it move when unexpected. This stock does not mirror silver direction in full yet, as it was abused all the way down to the 200day MA on a poor news release and bad timing.

    Thanks though :)

  57. This comment has been removed by the author.

  58. agua

    Brigus is screaming higher today too, on big volume. But I don't see any new news on their Black Fox Mine, which is Sandstorm's baby. It's a puzzler...

  59. US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

  60. I've now flipped CDE three times. Profitable each time.

    We are seeing surprising strength in select miners.


    I'll go out on a limb and say most folks here aren't making big bucks lately. Sticking with RVm has proven a good call. Nice work.

  61. @Shill -
    Isn't gross now short Treasuries, or is he just out of them? Think maybe he's just helping his short position by saying things like that?

  62. Hello Eric#1 and SSK, good to be back.

    I'm still so far underwater in my paper investments I occassionally say "glug glug" aloud. (Glad I have a totally stuffed and heavy Roayl Crown bag to be thankful for is all I can say :-)
    This is going to be one loooong summer.
    Glad I hold my options out into Jan 12'.

    I think Jim Sinclair mentioned on KWN recently that TRE is about to change their U.S. symbol to TRX or TREX. Something to that effect.

    My opinion on the miners/GDX/GDXJ divergence at times is that the EE have changed the algo's (or the algo programs have changed themselves) in reaction to that wicked silver/commodities margin massacre that happened back in early May.
    I've also noticed that some of the options I follow have not been reacting in a positive way when the underlying equity price is having a good day. They are actually noticeably underreacting. Things have changed.
    The Cartels hands are everywhere in this market everyday pushing just enough buttons to keep everyone off balance. I believe they are targeting the futures and options market as a way to keep commodities prices low or at least the perception of that.
    I can see a day where there are no individuals left or allowed in the U.S. market exchanges and it is completely being operated and enjoyed by the big funds and banks and the Fed.
    What better tool would the Fed have (besides money printing) that would enable it to completely control the MOPE that our entire economy and fiscal condition has become?
    Their goal eventually could be to make the market so unstable and blatantly manipulated that the average, unconnected person might not want (or be allowed) to risk or play the market anymore. A minimum investment type thing where the minimum is relatively enormous to the average person. Total exclusion, like a private club for the wealthy and connected.
    If they are as power hungry and sinister as we suspect (ok, we know they are) then controlling ALL of the market trading and all the daily MOPE that goes with it, is critical to their plan.

    I think it's entirely possible and possibly critical to stringing this ponzi out. If you think of it in those ponzi terms, it's not hard to see how total market control would benefit them.

    Can anyone of us here honestly say that the market isn't scary and unpredictable and we wish we were never in it at times?
    Maybe they are hoping for that very thing. Volume has never been lower in recent times inspite of a much larger global economy due to developing nations and their growing economies.
    Throw in all the market exchange consolidation and buyout's going on lately and I think it's already started....a centrally controlled, global equities/commodities market with only very large players allowed.
    All the ingredients are in place.

  63. Hmm..does silver crash though $35 today or this week is the question. I've been sitting on cash since last Monday waiting for the right time to get back in, but it's looking like I might want to wait till around the end of summer?

  64. Two newsletter writers Stannsberry and Krauth are about to release SSL as their next big moneymaker. Unfortunately for their subscribers the clues they gave could only have been SSL ie. former CFO of SLW who we all know is Nolan Watson who is in his early 30's and is no. 9 on Casey's nex ten and is CEO of SSL. They also gave no. of streams =6 Watson also is in top 40 under 40 etc. so a terrific management with good connections.

    Somebody here also mentioned Brigus which is one of SSL's streams.

    Still lots of room as the initial blow will fade a little.

    I'm in for the long haul. I only have two stocks SSl+ warrants and ORKO which is why I can only comment on them.

    I enjoy the blog but don't have the guts for the quick trades.

  65. Those of you reading deeply into the NASA preparedness warning, this is standard stuff for all federal agencies. The government is incredibly paternalistic about all of its employees. Seriously, this stuff is so common that to cherry pick one and present it as proof of some terrible imminent disaster is PT Barnum stuff. Eventually, of course, something bad will happen... and there will have been a warning right before it. Like every other week. Obviously, we should all be ready for Bad Things, but no, we are not going to be fighting aliens or a rogue neutron star this Friday.

    If you are in the military, you get this speech at least once a week. Mandatory safety briefings before you can leave work for the weekend. Mandatory "family care plans." Mandatory car inspections before any three day weekend. Mandatory road trip/safety analysis signed by a supervisor if you are going more than 200 miles. While it is most pronounced in the military, policies regarding total family security are more noticeable throughout the government since 9-11. Since all Federal employees are likely targets, these kinds of warnings, while well intentioned, are also a bureaucratic CYA.

    Pailin: leveled up.

  66. @SSK:
    1. At work in a meeting
    2. Gone to the toilet
    3. Went for early lunch
    4. Going to bed -- like me!

    Night y'all.

  67. Scottj88,Revett mentioned on Dr Berry Morning Notes this AM.

  68. If I had all of my capital available I would wait until mid to late August, possibly longer depending how ugly the debt ceiling situation gets up to that point. This market is teetering.
    When Bernanke and Co. start talking about considering additional stimulative measures in Fed. speak is the time to get ready.
    IMO I don't see a crash in silver. Approx. $30+ looks like a safe and reasonable non-technical floor at this point.

  69. @Shill

    Before the new site launches, I wanted to thank you for your breaking news efforts over the last few months. I don't know where you have the time to hear, see, and find all this stuff, but I truly appreciate you sharing it with us! I wondered if you were ever to consider changing your avatar, you might consider this picture?

    thanks again!

  70. Picked a good night for drinking last night! - I was right there beside you in 'spirits' Big T... Might have to start drinking again today if we see some 34.xx Silver.

    Looks like I better get my shot glass ready - yikes!

  71. @Josh
    Thanks for the Sinclair link
    Good to read both FOFOA/Costata and Sinclair!
    Schwab seems to be switched to TRX from TRE
    Symbol Last Volume Time (ET)
    TRX 6.61 104,445 11:57:44 AM

  72. Missed that there was a new thread. Reposting:


    Excellent post. The first part is a really generous analysis of NCOT's personal style, the rest is a good guide for anyone engaged in trading.

    @Fleve. The strong hands attitude is entirely valid IF one believes this is a secular bull.

    Ask yourself if you believe this is a secular bull. If you don't believe it then that is truly where you disagree and 'strong hands' is a red herring. You don’t have to post how you look at it if you don’t want. This is for your reflection.

    FOAGQ - sold the last of my ZSL into the dip and bought some AGQ which I've already sold. Have dry powder. A new low will be an AGQ buy. Silver over $35.90 and I'll pick up one shot of ZSL. (note, it happened, and I have another shot of AGQ to sell at silver 34.49)

  73. Thanks H...Appreciated.

    La prima de riesgo de España, que se mide con el diferencial entre el bono nacional a diez años y el alemán del mismo plazo, rozaba a media mañana los 260 puntos básicos, tan sólo diez por debajo del máximo anual (270) que alcanzó el 10 de enero. A principio de la tarde está a 255.

    The risk premium in Spain, which is measured by the spread between the ten-year national bond and German the same time, touched at midmorning to 260 basis points, just below the maximum ten year (270) which reached January 10. In the early afternoon is at 255.

  74. RE: TRE, I'm showing invalid symbol in Fidelity ATP (trading app). Not sure what is going on with that one, it was part of a watch list I have.

  75. One Dead cat bounce coming up...Stay vigilant.

  76. @SSK,

    Bleeding in the streets. I'm amazed how no matter how much money "they" take and how small my acct becomes, they can keep stealing the same dollar amounts from me day after day. Look at First Majestic, down 6.8%. Will it find support @15 when we hit $30 silver? Proabably not, because it'll hit 15 long before $30 silver! Meanwhile, Great Panther is raging on rumored earnings for an +8% act of sorcery. AG already has given incredible earnings reports, but they were ignored. The company with unhedged production that dilluted its shares this year and can't release deposit numbers because of inconsistent assays is the big winner today when silver is 2% down? This must be one hell of an increase in bottom line we're about to hear about.

    Seriously now. This is getting beyond stupid. I never held Bear Sterns, yet I know exactly what it must have been like to hold it all the way down.

    And RVM? RVM doesn't trade with silver. RVM doesn't trade with copper. RVM doesn't trade with the market. Why add it to an index to represent the market?

  77. Please hold at 35!

    Anybody have guesses as to what Turd's new domain will be? I noticed is password protected. The domain was registered late last year. Forgot when he started talking about creating a new site. Hope it's coming along well. I need something to take my mind of the $ I'm losing.

  78. TRE is now TRX in the U.S. TRE was/is the TSX symbol for some Chinese ponzi stock that blew up and it was decided that it might not be a good idea for another stock to have the symbol TRE at this time. Goes to show how much due diligence some people do. Don't do.

  79. Oh shit, it's getting bad for the CME...Anyone see this?

  80. Code,

    I hear you. I just got trapped with CDE. Wiped out nearly all my profits from earlier. Pretty ugly action. I think we are all thinking that it's time to get the hell out of the way of the EE. They'll kill you.

    If you're losing money every day, get out. Let this flush out.

    Don't be afraid to bail. I have never regretted selling off into risk. In fact, selling at painful times has almost always been the smartest move I made. Every time.

    CDE breaks 23.20, and I'm out for good. NGD doesn't hold 8.80, ditto. Then I'm down to a core holding. I'll be nearly all cash.

    THis market sucks. You can only trade and catch minimal gains. And you cannot get greedy.

    Too funny about RVM. It represents bizarro world.

  81. Dollar... broke out of its 4 week decline .... also inflection points are upon us... be carefull... we may see silver sell off to 26 and gold to 1400...

  82. JoeKa,

    Sleep sounds like a good idea. Except, I've got to make some money back. Bought more CDE at 23.33.

  83. Breaking News

    SP Cuts Greece to CCC Rating, Negative Outlook

  84. Man, look at SLW. It's going back to the twenties. And I thought 32 looked like a sweet set-up. There is something so totally fucked up about SLW right now.

    Just sold out my CDE 23.43. That's all this market gives: $200 gains or skull-crushing losses.

  85. ZSL doing me good today! Was ballsy and held over the weekend. Got in @ 17.43.

    Do I continue to hold today? I'm seeing no support for silver in this area.

  86. guys and gals watch zsl for a little while but be carful of whipsawing still loooooooooooong on phizz stay calm and good luck! word ver weear be very weeary

  87. It really makes me wonder how far we are away from similiar type actions by our U.S. government...

    Ireland Seizes $7 Billion From Its Pension Fund To Boost Employment
    Hugh O’Connell, | Jun. 12, 2011

    This action most likely won't be QE3, but QE4 or 5...a way to bail out the states.

  88. I am toast. Well looks like I will have to wait until September to recoup some of these losses.

  89. @Code,look at what they are doing to SLW,unreal,take the day and have a beer.

  90. beprepared...

    lol, they are using civil services pensions right now to fund the gov.

  91. For all of you that did not hear Santa's latest interview on KWN, go give it a listen.

    He offers a strategy mining managements can take to stop all the manipulative WS short selling of their shares. It is a "must listen" interview.

    Stockholders need to agitate to get CEOs/BoDs to adopt his strategy.

  92. UPDATE 1-Spain's CAM says in talks with funds, no deal yet

  93. Great call again Turd! You're the man.

  94. JoeKa thanks for the silver short it is the only thing holding me up now. That is countering my gold and oil losses. I think gold will gold at support. Not sure about oil I have held this future a long time it doesn't expire until Sept.

  95. I think I am suffering from over-trading disease. I just want action - I have to resist this urge.

  96. @Mark True, but as I read the above article it seems like Ireland is doing an all out complete seizure without a promise to repay those funds. Ireland is doing this to appease the IMF Overlords instead of selling state assets. IMF is looking to bleed Ireland dry and they are willingly or blindly running down the path.


    VALUE: 16.974

    VALUE: 11.349

    VALUE: 10.668

    And the beat goes on. If your in and out for quick trades, grab them. If your long...get short.

  98. Is this "poetic justice" or what? Commentators are rather lame as if looking for "something to talk about"
    But maybe it's the thought (wishlist) that counts.

    Hacker Group Anonymous Wants Ben Bernanke to Resign Or Else…

    Mon, Jun 13, 2011, 12:57pm EDT


  99. Obama taps Gruenberg to head FDIC --- Maybe this is another reason why market is going down.

    Martin Gruenberg was linked closely to Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act.
    So, the country is moving deep into WRONG direction further.
    Once again, it is like Bush's third term.

  100. My July40 calls are bleeding to death and the good doctor is slumped in his chair with a hangover............

    Need help, all. Is this where Kervorkian would've come in handy?

  101. Looks like this one is appropriate once again.

    "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking..."

  102. I gave up. Sold everything (paper ofc) at a huge loss.

    Kinda like jesus, i did this to save the lot of you. This will start the rally for sure.

  103. Is NCOT around?

    Might be time to short some to make sure your account does not get blown buddy

  104. Summers: More stimulus needed to avoid 'Lost Decade' - Yahoo! Finance$%&!=9&asset=&c

    This day just keeps getting better and better.

    ( No not a QE signal..not even close )

  105. Gonna take a vacation and stay on the sidelines for some time now till news of a raised debt ceiling at least.

  106. As many of you may already be aware, the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors employs sophisticated financial models and decision making algorithms when making decisions about future policy. Unfortunately due to the high cost of all commodities including poultry, our headless-chicken decision wheel is becoming increasingly costly to operate.

    Therefore in an effort to reduce the costs of decision making, I come to you, dear reader, on behalf of the Board of Governors with a query upon which your input is vital to our future decision making.

    Shall we raise interest rates, lower them, or keep the status quo?

  107. While this is mere venting, I can imagine a world of $10/ounce silver again. This imagination of mine has created massive opportunity in the past, and saved me much grief as well.

    The only "comfort" in all of this is that the thesis hasn't changed. Government continues to fabricate money out of bad ideas, and this will eventually find its way into the competition for existing resources -- which should drive all prices higher.

  108. @Quixote - I tapped out once we touched support at 35.

    At this point, it all depends on whether or not you consider the current level 34.25 - 34.55 to be support -- it seems we just got a nice bounce from 34.55.

    I am inclined to think that since we broke major resistance, dropped out of pennant and there's an all-hands-on-deck exercise going on right now to prove the incredible strength of the dollar, we are headed at least somewhat lower. The next stop I am at all sure about is 33.

  109. Well, was that Armstrong's dip?

  110. Holy fucking straight down batman! It's not even a slide, it's a sheer cliff! Damn, didn't Martin Armstrong call this to the DAY? Scary.

  111. I'm watching SLW and kind of holding my stomach.
    Trying not to let it bug me too much. This market is a real beauty. Whatever happened to the supply and demand market concept?
    Silver and gold are finite and are in heavy demand globally we are told, yet they and their mining companies unnaturally just plummet inspite of the S & D issue's.
    The physical Au/Ag shortage blowback eventually is going to be one interesting market moment to witness when demand finds out there is no more Au and Ag available upon demand.

    Like I said earlier, really glad my options are out into Jan. 12'.

  112. My last post and I wish everyone the best: SILVER $34.78 and not looking good. Good luck traders.

  113. @erewenguy

    That was only 25% of Armstrong's dip, wait until 2:30PM EST.

  114. One waterfall too many... Dang, I hit my May lows again this morning and when the waterfall hit, my emotions took over. Just sold half my positions into the lows of the day. If any of you bought them from me, please enjoy them on my behalf :) On the positive side, my emotional capitulation is usually a good sign that things are about to turn around.

  115. I think I'll just retreat to my Hidden Bunker of Doom, crack open some cheap whisky and canned bacon, fondle my Double Eagles, and check out for a while....

    "After all, tomorrow IS another day!"
    -Scarlett O'Hara


  116. Jimmy,

    if you had dry powder wouldn't you want to buy at these levels?
    I'm licking my chops right here man... I'm waiting for a bounce,
    200DMA is only 10% lower and we are still riding above the long term trend line that goes all the way back to 8/23/2010 are we not???

  117. Last time Turd got hammered the PM did also... Spooky...

  118. Dr Durden -- bear in mind the wonders of self-fulfillment in prophecies, esp. when the right people are made aware of them.

    But yes, it is indeed spooky. I'ts one thing to see it in silver, but the $20+ drop in gold since this morning is interesting.

  119. That last dip just blew through my stop loss. I'm out for now till late summer. Looks like we may end up testing the 32-33 area at this rate.

  120. Tesla, you make perfect sense, but i'm on a margin.

  121. The dollar is down against nearly all currencies. This does not reflect "a sanguine view of Greece", but the realization that the dollar is cheap trash.

  122. Ben,

    You've come to the right place for advice.

    Please lower the interest rates. Thank you,


  123. quick start blaming the EE instead of the fact that this is purely a technical play... i outlined may times the BIG fucking bearish flag and no one listened... i mentioned it to turn with no response.. we here it is.

  124. @Pailin

    Thanks for sharing your perspective on PSLV and silver as a whole – this thread and the last one.

    I’ve mainly had the blinders on when it comes to investing in PMs, focusing heavily on silver. Sure wish I had listened to the folks in mid/late April who were switching to gold since they felt silver was over-bought at the time. I’m not a short term trader though and I have to keep reminding myself of that.

    Most of my physical gold is numismatic coins, but I’m starting to accumulate some non numismatic gold bullion now. I cannot however imagine silver NOT playing a significant role as money in the future once fiat trades at its true value (zero). If it ever gets to the point where we’re using gold coins to barter for small purchases like milk and a loaf of bread, then we’re truly screwed. Assuming it doesn’t get quite that bad, silver on the other hand, can easily be broken down into smaller dollar amounts.

    I’m beefing up on gold, but I’ll still accumulate more silver as well. Mainly pre-64 U.S. coins at this point. With the amount of pre-64 coins that are hitting the smelters now, maybe some new rarities will be created with numismatic value. I’m buying on the dips. Seems I’ve been doing a lot of dipping lately.

  125. Beprepared

    You might be right, as their choice of words uses "seize". I don't know how they can legally do that unless the fund which states that it is a "reserve" might imply the amount is over and above what is required for the pensions. Even then, it should be as illegal as if a business holding pensions for their employees, suddenly uses the reserves.

    But if I recall correctly, didn't one of the automotive co's do that? If there are excess reserves, perhaps it is legal.

    lol word ver. excesses

  126. Silver looks like a buy here. Nice shakeout.

  127. By tomorrow or wednesday the 200DSMA will be at the same location as Turds bottom #2 (32.32 USD) I Who knows if it will even go that low but it seems destined to retest looking at todays action - no?

    Turd definitely left this open all along as a possibility!

    BFD - DON'T Panic!!!

    Once twice proven as a firm bottom (I don't know for sure but that's what I've heard about you Turd?)

    THEN a lot of money should flow back into silver right there - FAST!

    Correct me where I'm going wrong please team?

    w/v fantiman

    don't tell me "your fantasizing man!"

  128. Took advantage of the dip to buy some under $1600 physical gold. But not much. I think we are going to a POG in the range of $1500 today today.

  129. Turd:

    I was gonna put in a limit order to buy silver options if we retest the $32.30 of last month, but is that still a support level of significance, or is it just as likely to bounce off of $32 or $31. In other words, what do you think is a good entry level that we have a good chance of bouncing off of?

  130. So my internet goes out for an hour and comes back on to a whole new reality. Tough day, for sure. I'm now dumping my NGD and CDE on strength. Going to take it up the ass with NGD.

    Clearly, the flush that began with SLW in May (in hindsight, that was the tell) isn't anywhere over yet. 2008 is, of course, the where we are headed (already nearly are). I do not understand this, but it is the reality I cannot change. Fighting this with pissed off buys will bankrupt. That's my experience anyways. I'm afraid Turd is going to launch a new web site with about ten of us still around.

    Friends, you just have to keep centered, breaking shit ain't going to help anything, and lastly, work your new mantra: "I just have to win it back." Cause you will.

  131. Just another opinion, I'm out of all paper gold and silver. Bought gll and zsl, with tight trailing stops, think silver and gold are going lower, especially silver. Things are going to be crazy with the end of QEII. I don't think anyone knows what happens next, we're in uncharted territory.

  132. quick start blaming the EE instead of the fact that this is purely a technical play... i outlined may times the BIG fucking bearish flag and no one listened... i mentioned it to turn with no response.. we here it is.


    Been Bearish since April, don't get all nutty because your making it on the downside, most if not all here make money either way. Its not so much that day traders need to worry, its the institutionals that need to worry. 401k's 403b's and so fourth.

  133. I reckon we are looking at a major default in the making here,the amount of paper that is being sold is phenomenal,all to make Joe Public think the price shown in his daily paper is the price of physical.Looks to me like the EE and the world financial system is in deep shit.Anyone selling physical at the moment needs certifying.Bob.

  134. @ Tesela

    I'm thinking the same thing at the moment, that we're looking for a retest of Turd's bottom #2.

  135. Gainesville is running the following fantastic sales. Probably won't last long at these prices. Code NIAUS gets you $5 off the shipping.

    American Eagles, $2.99 over spot

    Maples, $2.25 over spot

    Philharmonics, $2.10 over spot

  136. My guess:

    Turds bottom#2
    200 day SMA
    Price of Silver
    Have a date within the next 48 hours at 32.32 area

    They break up shortly afterward and don't EVER have a threesome again!

    If I see 30.** I'm no longer bullish though!

  137. anyone trading the market today and only staring at their ticker of choice is missing the big picture. this is not just about PMs but about market participants throwing tantrums now that the free money will be taken out of the system! we all know that won't last. until the next crack hit from fed pipe, i doubt u will see much euphoria!

    if u want to buy gold, i suggest u short small caps or something weaker (just about anything).

    as far as silver, hey if u have the guts to deal with that right now in light of the overall market structure and internals, u prob don't need advice from me!

  138. Hey Bernanke,

    Is this your "sophisticated financial model" ?

  139. Watching this guys calls for silver. Hes been spot on

  140. HUI hit 497.74 today. That says it all. Takes us back to January. All miners gains of the last six months are gone. Vanished. Poof.

    That said, I agree with Tesla that we may be looking at a serious buying opportunity. It just remains to be seen if we can buy SLW at 29 or 20.

  141. @CD
    Thanks! I've taken-on so much water, I'll probably hold another day or so. Why sell now when there's still money to be lost! :-O

  142. cbottlebob said:Anyone selling physical at the moment needs certifying.Bob.


    Dam strait this is a default, and heading strait for a concrete wall. GLOBALLY! the Fat cats got theirs and if you frequent Turds site, you got yours as well. Sit back watch the show, or better yet go to the store and grab a few necessities then watch the show. At least we here in the States still have full shelves of goods, the in itself is the most precious thing available. The rest is all numbers. Unlike many here I do not put a dollar figure on my PM's.

    Priceless as far as I am concerned.

  143. @snoochie

    kinda think there's support at 34.50 - but I'm not gambling, so instead I'll wait for confirmation. !!


    Your saying it's oversold correct? I'm seeing vix high and some sectors starting to rebound after a long beat down - you?

  144. You have to remember that once confidence properly collapses in the financial system,paper fiat goes with it.For months now the whole system has sprung more leaks than a cullander factory,sooner rather than later something major is going to collapse,the EE are desperately trying to buy time,they don,t want the sheeple moving into G & S en masse.Stay calm,this is not a problem with GS this is the failure of the system we are seeing.What would you rather do buy into the only truly International currency or watch your savings and assets devalue by 20% per annum via inflation and devaluation,and ultimately hyperinflation.

  145. @ level
    or anyone who can answer this:
    how can we go down further in silver now w/out taking the equities down? financials are rebounding and they usually lead. dow not taking the big flush today.
    i am overall bearish on silver, but i cannot see it going lower short term w/ this level of oversold in the general markets. thoughts?

  146. Little To No Chance Of Humala Nationalizing Mining In Peru & Tinka Resources Update

  147. I have seen much much worse days in my miners when silver was on the rise even. They are being lil troopers overall. Weird really.

    I think the miners ARE forecasting the trend as they did when silver was at near all time highs ..and that move will be exciting to say the least.

    Also, I'm hanging on to my July SLV calls. Why not I mean? You can't go much lower than ZeRo :D, at this point a move up IS possible in the coming weeks but getting out now will only yield a huge (for me) loss.

    Just my view from the cheap seats over here.

  148. Turdites:

    I like to read the posts and get a sense of optimism or pessimism, as a barometer of sentiment. I trust the range of comments here, on this board, far more than I do mainstream media or talking heads. Duh.

    With that said, it is really quite impressive to read all the naysaying today, as it very much strengthens my resolve to buy the dip.


    Nothing has changed a single bit regarding the devaluation of the US dollar, nor the mess in MENA, nor the mess in Europe in general and Greece in particular. We have all seen this coming, and it is playing out just like we envisioned it. Exactly.

    The Bernank is in a no-win position: either he raises interest rates and the US economy collapses into the mother of all recessions/depression, or the Bernank continues loose monetary policy either in the form of QE or some other alphabet soup nonsense.

    Is Obama going to fire the Bernank for crashing the economy in the run up to a presidential election? Hell no!

    Is Bernank going to deviate from his loose monetary underpinnings based on some sudden, magical revelation that his entire life's work is suddenly revealed to him as being false? Hell no!

    As a lawyer, I LOVE THE NO WIN SITUATION. And this one is EASY to call.

    I strive to place my opponents into a no-win box, for if I do, THEN I WIN NO MATTER WHICH CHOICE THE OPPONENT MAKES. Just like now.

    Remember that! Bernank is in a no-win box. If anyone thinks differently, then support your conclusion with some analysis. Funny, there is nothing ANALYTICAL which comes close, but go ahead and give it a shot.

    We win, provided we don't shoot ourselves in the foot with worry or short-sighted bad trades.

    I don't see how it is possible to accurately, and consistently trade this manipulated market. To me, it is just like blackjack or roulette. Why not just acquire physical on the dips, and let the scenario we all know is coming just play out?

    So, as I have seen for the past eight months, when the negative sentiment comes out on this blog, in the comments, it is almost a sure sign of a market bottom. Seriously, BTFD and go enjoy the summer.

  149. Feel oddly comfortable with what is going on...


    Eur/Usd just spiked up to new highs after it started trending down on the Greece Rating to CCC....

    POSx back on the defensive on the eur/usd front (53.8% of the USDx)

  150. Its not physical Silver being sold its fraudulent paper,physical Silver is disconnecting from the official price.I see less and less physical Silver being traded everyday.Gold and Silver are the ultimate insurance policies against the organised financial criminals in the Government,the Central Banks,Wall St and your local banks.

  151. @tesla

    i'm seeing several indicators saying that it is oversold...

    but here is the catch, oversold in an up market means buy. but technically, the SPY moving averages and market structure is indicating we are in a down market. if this is the case, then i am waiting for an overbought indicator to sell short more equity as opposed to "buying the dip". it can remain oversold and the spy may end up dropping another 30%!

    the thought behind buy the dip was that the fed was giving us easy money. it wasn't b/c i thought wow aapl is $300 billion market cap with $6 billion cash flow, let me get it b/c it is cheap. with the fed out of the way, there will be no more cash going anywhere until the crack is returned. i believe when it returns the bond market will tell us by dropping b4 equities do

  152. The Turd on the HUI on June 8:

    "Ick. Nasty. The area near 500 should (underlined) be strong support, though."

    Turds goes on to say, "Here's a picture of the HUI. You'd think it would find support near 500 but I thought it would stop near 540, too, so what the heck do I know? At this rate, 450 or even 400 may be in the cards."

    450 would be a freaking disaster. Don't even want to go there.

    I've got to believe we are getting support here for the miners at 500 HUI. IN fact, I am getting less fearful in the short term. 500 holds and we see a nice bounce.

  153. Excuse me, what are you babbling on about? I am bi-winning!!!!

  154. @ sp-
    i'm w/ you on the confirmed downtrend in the markets.
    QE is not officially over.
    and this is looking more and more to be a bear trap right here.
    i think we may head violently higher in the general markets.

  155. "Feel oddly comfortable with what is going on..."

    Me too!

    Really great posts cbottlebob!

  156. @ sp rereading your comments, i don't mean buy, just lighten up on shorts and see what happens around s &p 1300

  157. I can't believe I am making money on CDE. But I am. This would be one helluva reversal. SLW already up nearly a buck from the low.

  158. @ CookieMonster

    I agree, something seems very fishy... no way they let the markets tank for 6 weeks straight and then have it totally crash.... not during their "recovery" while QEII is in place....

  159. This $USD action is exactly what I've been concerned about. As I have written previously, I've been a $USD bear since 1995. Through right and wrong periods. But, as "strong" as the $USD downside trend has been the past decade, what spooks me now is that many anti-USD investors like myself might find themselves contending with some hard to handle conditions should things get disorderly with the $USD. It's been fun, frankly, to trade against the USD all these years. I suspect that Catbird Seat view is going to feel less fun, in the next 12-24 months. In short, I've got a bad feeling right here about Uncle Buck, and also US Treasuries.

  160. WTF is going on with the EUR/USD????

    IT is going ballistic to the upside....

  161. Ginger,

    Apparently I need your miners. A "portfolio" of AG, SVM, EXK, and NG was holding up like a chump. I did dump the AG, but just so that I could watch it bounce 2% in the last 40min as a little extra kick to the groin. If you're not losing 20%+ on miners in 2-3 weeks, you're just not living. That's my philosophy.

  162. Guys just sit tight for now and relax,

    Monster crack injection coming July 5th,

    enjoyr your summer.

  163. Hmmm.. silver's up substantially since I puked out my positions. Perhaps we can replace Turd's bottom with Pforths Puke Point...PPP ?

  164. Code wrote:
    "If you're not losing 20%+ on miners in 2-3 weeks, you're just not living. That's my philosophy."


  165. Bought more Central Fund (CEF.A) today.
    (no margin ... ever)

    I absolutely do not understand selling in fear, or buying in greed.

    Keep buying on the way down;
    sell into strength.

    It sounds so easy I'm starting to scare myself.

  166. @cookie

    Sorry, I can't answer that.

    That felt a whole lot like capitulation.

  167. @Scottj88

    Dollar index fail at the 50 day.

  168. what the hell is going on???

  169. FOAGQ. Used the last of dry powder at the 1:10 waterfall to buy at $34.60. Sold half of that at $34.99 and will sell the ohter half at 35.24 then what I bought this morning at 35.49.

    Don't have any ZSL right now and still holding AGQ bought Friday as well as last week. Patience will pay off, I believe we'll be over $37 befor degradation eats the potential profit.

    Regrets to Tim and Jimmy. Down moves of $1-$2 are normal but suck all ths same.

  170. @ pforth

    Just out of curiosity, did you have a % stop that was triggered, or did you choose to sell based on the action. I ask because I strongly believe that daily or weekly "lows" in PMs are set by the EE statistically sampling stop losses within the electronic bowels of major brokers, and are designed deliberately to shake-out as many people as possible as efficiently as possible... after being burned once too many times in this way, i quit using them.

  171. @SP


    Caveat: O-bummer is NOT going to let this market crash and will soon give in to the FEDs pressure to continue printing and injecting liquidity. He is in a corner but the Republicans will / should be softening rapidly thanks to the Fed and their pet banks pumping the brakes on the market right now.

    but WTFDIK

  172. @cookie

    i fully expect to see spy 1300 as there is almost always a failed retest. i also expect that when we get there, they will float it a little bit higher to take out all the shorts stop-losses. but i also believe that ultimately until fed agrees to give free money, we will simply go down after that.

    i also do not think that the fed has much control to the downside. once the markets start to drop, it is not as easy to control. but still, i think this is a great time to go long gold physical and short the markets.

    i am not trading short-term either, i'm planning to hold short for a few weeks or so.

    but then again my calls have been near 100% wrong over past month, which is fine, as i have been playing with very small amounts.

  173. Trying to prevent a physical metal default in the near future,that is what I think is going on.

  174. @pining

    I agree with you...and I don't trust broker based stops for this either. No I did it manually. As for the price point I chose. I broke all of my own rules. Essentially the stress of the last 6 weeks has been creeping up on me. I felt I had to lighten up, just to sleep at night. Of course still got 60% or so in play + a bunch of physical, so I'm not out of the game.

  175. That turnaround looks like a liquidity injection. Every risk trade turned at the same time (dammit, I hate that commodities are referred to as "risk" trades). Since it is not specific to metals, I'm not sure it tells us much about any particular support levels or ranges. The injection of $$ probably has more to do with protecting important levels in the SP 500 and Dow.

  176. Code,
    My miners have certainly taken the hit over the past several weeks. Down many thousands from my account highs but today as I type I'm only down .30% for today. ..That's mainly due to RVM and GPLs hanging tough. GGCRF is dragging my account down the most. I am mainly in the juniors. Hoping to add some of those you mentioned to my basket in the coming weeks ...and hopefully before a big climb back up.

  177. Oh happy day. After a complete clusterfumble FedEx has delivered my GPL bars.

    Bought the day their website didn't update spot properly. A bargain they were at $47.50.

    Completely stackable.

    See I don't just trade paper. ;)

  178. @Levelhead - Agree about the apparent capitulation. Been too much FUD about the end of QE2 for the past several weeks. Time to move markets back up.

  179. pforth- I hear you, partner. Stressfull and difficult to predict action these days, and you are absolutely right- gotta be able to sleep at night.

  180. Had a short on AG (First Majestic) at 17.78, covered at $17.37, got spooked early from a rally attempt. Darn, nice to make money though.

  181. @ sp , level, et. al.
    i went long on the dip this am. hope it holds up.
    or we are all in for some serious economic doo doo.

  182. For the Record...LONG TBT as of 15 minutes ago.

    BofA May Post Added $27 Billion in Housing Losses, Sanford Bernstein Says - Bloomberg

  183. Here we go again...?

  184. to whom it may concern:
    i started looking at this site about 6 months ago and became aware of it via zerohedge.
    i don't consider myself a puritan or much of a fan of american economic or political policy.
    however, after reading today's blog entry and some of the subsequent replies, i am wondering what value this blog has to me.
    i find no interest in what you drank last night, or who you fucked, or what you wiped your ass with.
    are you interested in being taken seriously or are you just another frat-boy broker?
    -david cook

  185. Look guys stop worrying so much from the days of our lives drama in the markets. I remeber last year and the drama with Aud/Usd up and down but bottom line interest rates are higher and great fundies that went along with it gold etc etc. Euro is going to look better and better once the interest rate gap gets bigger. By the time the fed rolls out of bed at 2:33 pm from the low interest rate hangover Euro will be 2 percent if not higher. This Greece media orgy will look pg 13 when the XXX debt ceiling issue comes to theaters near you late July.

  186. David, so dont read it? I dont see what the problem is.

  187. Good luck Cookie and everyone else.

    Silver sure takes the disgusting title day after day. Let's see if gold spikes back down to 1516 to scare and then mounts a real bounce. Gold not on it's feet yet, just off it's back.