Friday, June 3, 2011

Dollar Index Breaks 74. World Yawns.

The depth and breadth of the current attempt to hammer all things dollar-denominated before QE3 is muting the reaction to the complete rollover pukejob currently taking place in the POSX. See below.

A close  below 73.94 in the June POSX would clearly signal a retest of the lows from late April near 73. Since I'm not the only one who sees this, it will likely hold here for today. Next week, however, will be a different story. When this weakness will finally be allowed to be reflected in the price of commodities is anyone's guess. For now, just keep in mind that The Truth is on our side and, eventually, truth-based sanity will return.

p.s. I just noticed that Trader Dan has posted on this, too. He even touches upon the "conventional wisdom" that so annoyed me last night that I had to personally smack around a troll who was claiming I was a dope for suggesting that a weak BLS would send the dollar lower. Anyway, this link is definitely worth reading.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/06/employment-data-undercuts-us-dollar.html


5:00 EDT UPDATE:
The POSX will, in fact, settle down under 74. This clearly has negative implications for it next week.
The CoT must have been OK for silver as it has rallied nicely on the Globex. It's actually UP on the day after reaching as low as $35 overnight. We'll see what happens Monday but, heading into the weekend, our situation doesn't look nearly as dire as it did 10 hours ago.
Lastly, check out the weekly chart of the June gold. Sure looks like the terrible, barbaric investment that those in the MSM would have you believe it is. A popping bubble, that's for sure. <sarc>.  TF

283 comments:

  1. "eventually, truth-based sanity will return" --

    I don't know turd I think that they dug it a grave right next to Common Sense - may it rest in Peace.

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  2. Ho embarrassing...

    Thanks Turd, I'll be having a drink soon...

    Where are all the mystical cryptic posters today? Only had one today (Lot of Ur) saying silver below 30 in a few weeks...

    Otherwise, its just the usual crowd.. mind you everyones negative enough, the trolls don't need to do anything!

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  3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  4. Yoni - lol aint that the truth..

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  5. "The Truth is on our side and, eventually, truth-based sanity will return."

    I don't know. I am so sick of being wrong about everything, honestly I feel like dieing at the moment. I can see how people jump out of windows. Shame drugs aren't legal, alcohol isnt strong enough for me.

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  6. @ Long John

    Conventional wisdom says after a major run up take your original stake off the table and let the balance run for a free ride. Especially with the sale months of June and July in front of us. Then you can buy back the winners at even lower prices. BTW, I own some of what you mentioned.

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  7. Hell Yeah -
    I'm all for truth-based sanity!
    I'll drink a toast to that, and a couple to YOU Turd...
    You are the Rock of reason in this Sh. Storm!!

    Thanks man.

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. @ Scott, the issue I have with KWN i that they always seem super bullish on metals.. Overly so that it makes me take it with a pinch of salt.

    At least Turd throws his hands up and says "this is what it SHOULD be doing but it aint WTFK"

    These say it WILL happen... which IMO puts them in a similar league to the trolls who say it WILL go down to $5 or whatever.

    I really hope the bulls are right though!

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  10. I'm beginning to like silver here. may nibble if 35.9 is tested and holds up...

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  11. if I am wanting to just trade gold at this point because silver is WAY TOO INSANE. I am just starting so what should I be trading on?..comex futures? gold etf's? Something easy and something I can start at with low amounts of money....Thanks guys...mucho appreciate!

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  12. Hi Waffen, i hear ya,

    "You got to learn how to fall, before you learn to fly"
    Paul Simon

    oh yeh.

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  13. Don't worry, Art! I'm hanging in on the corn; easy to do with the casino's money. Of course, I'm sure I appear as a lamb to the slaughter to the old hands in the pits, but truth, and demand, are on our side!

    As for drinking, everybody, head for the bourbon! A little more demand can't hurt!

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  14. @ D E

    lol Buffalo Trace Whisky Sour in my non-typing hand!

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  15. Turd and friends,

    When Truth-based sanity returns, unfortunately, it will be when the dollar finally collapses.

    In the mean time, I got out of most of my puts and am going to watch from the sidelines for a while.

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  16. POSX has no life in it at all. I have 73.75 now.

    I don't see it closing above the 73.94 that Turd points out. More like 73.50ish.

    The truth is playing out no matter what the false paper POS tells us.

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  17. I'll tell you what, when things are the very worst you can imagine that is when you have to start thinking about a reversal. As soon as experienced traders like Turd start to feel like giving up the sun might come peeking over the horizon. I think staying frosty until the first bank default or official mention of monetary easing might be a good place to start thinking of getting back in.

    I do think people are looking at price a bit too much, politics not being weighed in enough for these buy and sell decisions. I also think that trying to look at these prices day to day is going to cost too much stress. Pick your political driver and pull the trigger based on that. Prices will become sane again, but not right now.

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  18. DXY - 73.74

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYaki2ZvhSE

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  19. All the booze talk is making me thirsty. Poured myself a gin & tonic.

    On that topic, anyone know a gin I can drink without pouring it into tonic? Right now I've still only got my vile old bottle of Gordon's London dry, but I should be able to get something better; especially as I'm in the Netherlands which should be famous for its 'jenever' (gin, that is).

    I only know stuff about whisky. I'm especially in love with anything peaty, like an Ardbeg, Laphroaig, Bowmore, Lagavulin.

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  20. @ NCOT

    They put their money where the mouth is --> $9Billion Dollar Hedge Fund... and if you look into what is coming in the macro scheme, I believe they are right. We are nearing the end of the system we are accustomed to... a lot of people are stuck in the normalcy bias but will understand it is here when it presents itself....

    We are on the verge of...
    More Economic Stimulus for Europe
    More Economic Stimulus for Japan
    More Economic Stimilus for the US
    More wars for the US/Europe/Middle East
    Inflationary spiral in core goods
    Comex Default
    Bond Bubble Bursting

    It is all good until it isn't... :(

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  21. @ Fleve

    Hendricks gin and tonic with a slice of cucumber

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  22. I just have to remember as Doug Casey says - "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent!" Practicing good risk management is the key. It looks like silver is getting a bid; If we get 36.25 I'll be tempted to increase my exposure. Maybe it explodes yet today!!

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  23. @murphy...cool beans, do you have any specific price targets in mind to sell certain ones at?

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  24. POSX - look out below

    I'm long Jack Daniels, Ice cubes, Gold and Silver (all physical.. gulp okay now I'm long ice cubes and short Jack... Oh well, buzz is kicking in = ).

    I still think i'm seeing a Inv. H/S bottom? lets see if it breaks above 36.20?
    (don't trade based on my opinion - I DKJ)

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  25. Anyone notice that crude has clawed all the way back to green. Silver almost there. Sanity returning???

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  26. Beefeater is the best gin going.

    http://www.beefeatergin.com/

    ( cough ) Smooth

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  27. Sold my gold 1545. 1/3 hedged on my core/physical silver by selling paper short 35.5 a little while ago. None of this means I know anything, but since I often discuss my trades, this is how I'm ending the week, flat except for the silver hedge.

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  28. @Turd.. it only took for you to wish it and it happened !!

    You're a wizard!


    Now click your heels together three times and say "theres no price like 40, there's no price like 40..."

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  29. @Turd, they want you to think sanity is returning. It's all smoke and mirrors. We know the real value of silver isn't the POS and gold isn't the POG. That's paper value.

    Don't confuse our sanity, which we all have or we wouldn't be reading your thoughts, with market sanity. :)

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  30. 36.2 next major hurdle. no big pullback here will be very reassuring.

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  31. Is every gin producer absolutely crazy, or at least their website builders. Perhaps only the good ones :)

    Thanks for the tips, Direct & Shell.

    Also, I love seeing silver make a solo run. Finally something that inspires confidence and smells of strength rather than rotten eggs. Now, up up through 36.20, puncture 36.40 if you really want to please me, and then close for the weekend.

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  32. Wow, what an AWESOME band practice I had. We kicked it! At least something went right today. =P

    Interesting day for metals, no major selloffs but risk remains. Again I'm sorry if I sounded so negative on the earlier thread just want to ensure as many people as possible survive to fight another day on the paper side. I do wish I could recommend the dip buying as Level Headed but I can't. I'm weaker than him in this regard.

    I'm masking some disappointment over the last week and see that Silver in particular is not lending itself to paper trading well anymore...well at least this week. Do wish some you folks were living just down the road from me. We could have a round of drinks and laugh about this all and roundly say at the end:

    FOOK MI?? FOOK YU!!!

    @NCOT: happy birthday again dude. Have a nice time with wifey and baby tomorrow.

    I wish you all a great weekend filled with joy and laughter with those you love.

    Warmest regards,
    JoeKa

    P.S. : Turd, in my opinion one of your best posts to date (previous thread). Not that it's filled with data or important targets, but because you're honest and stumped like the rest of us. My personal respect for you just ratcheted up even more after that. Thanks for all you do here. Your Singapore friend and friendly clown, JoeKa

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  33. Later I'll be long a Godfather.. (scotch and Disaronno on the rocks)

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  34. @JoeKa.. thanks mate!

    Daft thing is now I've lightened my load, I've averaged up! so if it goes north next week I need to jump on big and early... but WTFK!

    click on my profile to see my updated avatar..

    Wont be on here much later, dinner with the Fam.. surely its your bed time by now?

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  35. @JoeKa
    What you play man - bassist here (er...rusty crusty out of practice bassist)

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. @Long John and friends of Almaden, NAK

    I subscribe to a Casey Research letter and they are constantly reminding readers to sell their original investment at a doubling in price. Their reasoning is that there will always be other opportunities, including buying more of a winner that has had a temporary setback in price. Requires discipline which took me almost a lifetime to learn---do not follow my path! Do as CR says, not as I did! I own Almaden and CR feels it is very solid long-term play.

    NAK has a monster deposit with an environmental concern, correct?

    Good luck!

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  38. I think because of this pm bubble we live in where we understand what the truth is, we develop this worldview that because we have "woken up" that other people must be also. But the fact is that is not the case. People are absorbed by their jobs, sports, kids, movies, music, gadgets, socialites, politics, mainstream media, working for the weekend and vacations, etc.

    We are 2, 3, 4 generations into being conditioned into good little serfs, used to life as we know it, with the idea that people in power are trying hard for us and that we can change things at the ballot box. What makes me the saddest is that you are told that people in the armed forces are giving their lives for your freedom. But really it's the illusion of freedom.

    I think I felt the sickest about this when I realized that the holocaust was a setup by the international banksters. We thought we were freeing Europe and the Jews from slavery and genocide but really the whole plan was to enslave the world to the dollar as a reserve currency. I thought this is pure evil, but how diabolically wickedly brilliant.

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  39. Turd et all,

    I'm London-based and have the option to spread-bet on the Spot price of silver.

    I know it's unchartered territory. But I am right in thinking that if the comex defaulted, the futures contracts would become worthless and the Spot Price would become it's own entity? So no more July Silver contracts etc and we only have the Spot Price that the globe buys and sells the physical at (with premiums)?

    And without the Comex, the miners and industrial usage sectors can no longer hedge against the future price of silver? Or they can only do so at the remaining exchanges ie Shanghai, Hong Kong, would Spot price not still be attached to those paper markets?

    How have markets got back together in the past after exchange defaults?

    Slightly confused. If anyone could point me in the right direction of any articles I'd be grateful.

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  40. @ Long J

    A part of my equation is what percentage I hold in cash to BTFD, especialy at this particular time. If you have got between a 1/3 to 1/2 cash to invest on the dip then no need to sell. If not, I would say anywhere between a single and a double return is enough to take some money off the table, in order to buy more if the dip comes or to invest in other miners. Unfortunately, TPTB can short so many of the great miners you need more miners, since they take turns shorting different ones at different times.
    Don't know if you subscibe to any newsletters, but I find Casey IS and Smartknowledgu very helpfull.

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  41. Hah! I took so long composing this post that Turd started a new thread and 43 comments were posted before I finished it! LOL

    @Fort & atlee

    Thanks for mentioning DGP, I had not looked at it before. I agree, atlee, I "feel" there is a lot of upside potential in gold. Silver, might go to Turd's June upside of 42 or, just as likely, to Martin Armstrong's downside in the mid-20's. It will come roaring back sometime this year, but I can't ride it down any further right now.

    @All - Yesterday I made a firm statement that I was sticking to Turd's roadmap for June, and staying long JUL SLV options. This morning I woke up thinking I would reverse that stance. I was thinking what to say in my post to this board, only to find when I finally got here that the general sentiment, including our leader's, was pretty much the same as mine.

    The only reason I post my thoughts is because I suspect that I am articulating what many others are also thinking about and maybe that helps them. So, in the interest of honesty let me say that I will NOT be long silver options after today's close. I have already liquidated half my SLV contracts. Held my nose and took losses I didn't want to take. But, I don't play with money I can't afford to lose and I still have money in my trading account. Maybe it will go to DGP, or GLD or DBO calls. I'll make that decision for next week. Getting out today and taking the weekend off.

    One last point. I have said before I like James Arthur Ray's concept of "harmonic wealth". That is, there are five categories of wealth: Spiritual, Physical (health), Intellectual, Relationships, and Financial. I find that I derive benefits in all five of these areas from this blog. However, being a highly focused individual, it is very hard for me to pay adequate attention to more than one thing at a time. I think for now I need to back off from financial wealth management a little so I can focus more on some of my other "accounts". My daughter is getting married next month and my wife is very focused on that event. I need to be also. I am also starting a new consulting contract in a couple weeks, and there will be new relationships and intellectual challenges to be handled. It's all good! Don't want to shortchange any of it.

    So, I am jumping off the "silver bull ride" for a time. The new contract gives me additional cash flow that can go to stacking physical and accumulating miner other stocks. I'll do my options trading on something more predictable and sedate than silver for the next 2-3 months.

    Not that it is important what I chose to do, but perhaps this will be helpful to someone else.

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  42. @Fleve +1 to Hendrick's Gin for straight up drankin'. I also take Bombay Dry with a healthy splash of Vermouth and a whole lot of olive juice w/ extra olives for a proper Martini. Like mine to taste like the Atlantic.

    For bourbon, try some Basil Hayden's. Pour 2-3 fingers in a glass and ponder our pitiful existence in the geological time/space continuum.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basil_Hayden%27s

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  43. OC15 that's pretty dark thinking. Hitler's rise sponsored by big banks? ummmmm.

    I did end up playing today but not the play anyone wants to hear about. I will say I don't believe we'll go into the weekend above $36.

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  44. Hey, Chin Music....where ya been? All's well I hope!

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  45. went short at 36.2 silver. just came back from surgery.
    still 36.2 and the dollar got crushed.
    bad silver. bad.

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  46. Heya Tes! I'm mucking around the bass and acoustic guitar. But I'm lead vocals. Yeah, the useless one in the band who gets to bark orders!! Lol

    Am aiming to cut an album by mid 2012 if it all works out. I'm not a musician, just a lifelong interest.

    Just got back home. Final missive for the day. Y'all have nice one.

    JoeKa Out.

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  47. Man, all this drink talk, sure wish i didn't stop drinking. No cig smoking either! Done with that for a year too. How'd I freakin' pull that off AND lose 30 pounds??? Man the world really IS on its head.

    Note: I did not say ALL smoke-ables :-0)

    As the Silver Slurper loves to say: "To Me, My Bong!"

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  48. @cookie: surgery??? Who's surgery??

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  49. **warning**

    this is my "woe is me post."

    So in April I was riding high..
    Wife thinks I am a genius for cashing in that 401k and buying silver.
    I finally convince my mother to put 20% of her savings into physical silver.
    I finally convince the wife that I can open the options account.
    I am making $200-$400 a day.
    My garden is looking good.

    By early June
    My wife thinks I am a fool.
    My mother is super depressed.
    Options account is kaput.
    Bores ate my squash, the green beans died and now some mysterious creature is eating my unripe tomatoes.
    Garden is complete failure.
    I will probably be fired from my job by the end of the month if not sooner, and I don't even care anymore.
    I started a diet May 31st and it sucks.
    My wife is sick of my broken record, that we will have deflation before hyperinflation..(no more silver, no more food, goods etc) "you have been wrong about everything else" Can't say I blame her.

    Good news is I found some painkillers.

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  50. Great News on the daughter, Old Navy! Congratulations and good luck over the next few weeks; pre-wedding can be VERY tough sailing.

    And just in case you're not back by December,

    GO ARMY! BEAT NAVY!

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  51. Chin, where ya been? Ditto Justin: All Points Bulletin on the J dude. Pining for the Fjords, you out there bro?

    It's an MIA Turdtown vet Roll Call! :-)

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  52. Heads up for those in the trade, the last POMO is next Thursday June 9th.

    Choose wisely your moves.

    Added a TBT play for the event.

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  53. @JoeKa
    Cool man!
    I make my living as a DJ, Graphics & WebDesigner and Computer Geek.
    Got my arm crushed on a crab boat in Alaska 25 years ago and can no longer pay for long without hurting myself.
    But Music is still a big interest as well.

    Good luck with your 2012 project completion - I wish you much success and lots of groupies!

    w/v meistrio (really?)

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  54. Looks like we're hanging here on really low volume waiting for President's words to auto workers. I fear a big move is coming very soon, one way or the other, I have no idea which way but volume will drive it.

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  55. Now is NOT I REPEAT NOT the time to sell....

    Steady... follow the turd and remember we buy on the down days and sell in the green..

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  56. @Murphy...thanks...i'll check them out, have not have time to DD prior, but i do now....bought most stuff with my 'gut' & luck!

    @pbfurm....good to hear that, will def sign up for Casey R. Did not know that about NAK...no DD on my part, just Dumb & Deaf....bought, held and never looked back!

    but i just retired today from work and plan on taking a 6 mo to 1 yr hiatus from the rat race....so will def have more time research and make intelligent decisions.

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  57. I had a port removed from my chest.
    I feel that confident that silver is a sucking black whole that I let it ride while under the knife.
    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/spy-flashcrash-cycle.html#comments

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  58. But I do think equities will bounce here. So why isn't silver moving? That's why I hate it right now. I've been short since 38.

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  59. What's up with $36.20?
    Why is silver having such a hard time here?
    When is Barack speaking?

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  60. Silver poised right near several recent peaks is downright weird. Looks quite engineeered. And again on almost no volume.

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  61. @waffen: don't jump. You will miss the capitulation!

    @Fonz I'm not getting back in until you jump over a tiger while waterskiing

    Direct & Fleve Hendricks and Beefeater are among my favorites too, also the white label bombay is actually better than the saphire, try them side by side and you will see what I mean. If you have it where you are, there is also a gin called brokers that is my #1 right now, it has won several gin tasting contests:
    http://www.brokersgin.com/home.htm

    I never bother with the tonic, I use an ice shaker and add a little bit of olive juice. My rule for vermouth is I try to have an open bottle somewhere in the room while I'm making the drink

    Let it sit in the shaker an extra minute, I don't know why but it gets better.

    Direct I gotta give that cucumber tonic a try that sounds interesting!

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  62. @ Old Navy

    congrats! good decision too. stack some physical gold.

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  63. Obunkma kills me.
    He's still bragging about his "victories", what an @ss.

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  64. Even CNBS thinks he's full of it. World is upside down when CNBS is bearish on USA. Yikes!

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  65. Checking out now to go back to Sarah Connor, last episode. Wake me when the next flash crash happens so I can BTFD.

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  66. @Silverbleve, from the Hendricks wikipedia -

    In addition to the traditional juniper infusion, Hendrick's uses a hint of Bulgarian Rose followed by a mash of cucumber

    having a slab of cucumber in the drink brings the flava out in a sublime fashion, haven't managed to get my hands on any Bulgarian Rose petals... yet

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  67. Did anybody ever come up with a place to find a list of miners who are unhedged as TF suggested?

    I did just come across this regarding SVM from 5/26. I believe they are the largest silver miner in China, and on sale today!

    Presently Silvercorp does not hedge production. Silvercorp Metals Produced 1.05 million ounces of silver in the company's fiscal fourth quarter, resulting in a record annual production of 5.3 million ounces of silver and achieved the fifth consecutive year of production growth.

    Disclosure: I own it happily

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  68. To quote your least favourite economist: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

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  69. I'm done for today. Was up 2K early on and gave it all back. Finished the day up 80 cents!!

    6 pack of Sam Adams in the fridge. How bad?

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  70. Shut up with this gin talk! I'm dying for a Hendricks martini while slaving away at work. So good, so good.

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  71. @waffen

    this is not an abnormal thing in my opinion, ie, the fact that it seems like everything in ur life seems to have fallen apart at once. this happens to all of us in some way or another at some point in life. hang in there, in life, just like trading, you simply need to be able to get to the next day. do not capitulate on urself.

    things will go up when u hit the bottom (just don't overallocate!)

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  72. Right now ag looks like dr love is in da house:)

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  73. @ Waffen
    That is a very sad situation my friend. FWIW, I will pray for you and your family to get through this difficult time in you lives.

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  74. Lift Off??? - Sweet!!!

    w/v worst

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  75. OK so yesterday about this time was a lot of moanin' about dropping a dollar.

    Now today we're up a dollar. Where's the hurrah?

    Don't look at me I call this normal either day.

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  76. @Old Navy,
    Congrats on the wedding. Both my daughters got married the same summer several years ago. That
    was one busy time. But very special!

    @Fleve,
    Agree all this drinking talk getting me thirsty.
    I intend to help the barley demand this weekend.

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  77. I would like to say "thank you" to Turd and all the posters on this great site...because of what i've been following here, esp since the May Day ankle grabber....i was lucky to hit the dip at 32.50 or so and have 150 Buffalo's, at 34.14 from Bullion Direct coming my way!!!~Boo-Ya~

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  78. Back when I was drinking, I LOVED Sapphire. Poured over cracked ice, after a vigorous shake, twist of lemon and two olives. Nice and frosty. Got me completed smashed after downing two of them. Made me feel like shit the next day though.

    Now, I hardly miss it at all, save for the ritual of making the drink.

    Now I make my own seltzer water from my Berkey Filter, squeeze of fresh lime from my own trees in the backyard. Tall, frosty, delicious.

    I know, hardly the mind bender, but believe me, I had 25 years of fun and I don't miss the bad times that my excess lead to. Now I just take that energy out on stacking . . .

    @Waffen:

    Hang in there my friend. It WILL get better. Stay the course and keep stacking. It is times like these that make you better.

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  79. Those idiots at 4chan are rumbling about something big happening this weekend, is there an Asian holiday this weekend? Do you think our fav Vegas act Blythe and the Bernankes will try to pull a smashjob this weekend?

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  80. Hang in there Waffen, do not quit or give up.

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  81. @tesla you sound like a man/woman after my own heart.

    I used to DJ and now am a DJ gear product expert, do graphic design and web stuff for work too!

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  82. The four big metals are all green! Way to get to $0.00 on the day Ag!!!

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  83. @waffen euforea is mostly indeed a nasty drug,
    but it takes all of us now and then.
    Time brings wisdom. Just wait a year and they will be very thankful.
    For certainty I always advice people to Invest in fiat and banks, then they can be 100% sure about what they will get.

    Be right and sit tight!!

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  84. Looks some frowns may go upside down here. I said "may". What a week.

    But pop your head up and look around... do you see what i see? Even a 1540 today is just fine, thank you. Au is strong! It recently saw what, its 3rd best close ever or something? We're a skip and a hop away from fresh all-time high's.

    Ag is hanging in there too. Glass half full, it's sure looking and acting like the mid 30's has crystalized into a sound support level. Glass topped off, the value of my phyzz has more than doubled since Fall '09. At Ag 51, it will triple. I can live with that.

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  85. CNBS is bearish on USA because they are being instructed to be bearish on USA. The plan is to grind the market down over the next few weeks in order to instill fear of a recession/depression. CNBS is helping to alter market perception, the tools that they are.

    I doubt that the PTB wants to crash the market but rather just bring the Dow down ~60-100 pts/day.

    Then the call will be for an increase of the debt ceiling and more QE to keep the recovery going. "The first two QEs worked but more is needed to seal the deal." For the past year, all Obama and the other retards did was talk about the recovery. Now they will begin talking about the recovery that is being threatened if more stimulus and a debt ceiling hike don't happen.

    I think equities and commodities will continue lower for a while but don't fall asleep because the announcement of QE3 or something of its ilk will be announced when the market is closed after a really bad day in the market when the shorts are in and every long is out.

    That's when to catch the knife. Not now.

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  86. @NCOT Cool!
    Been switching my software over to Traktor (huge job editing mp3 tags)
    Haven't been getting many jobs on Web and Graphics stuff lately (even though my website ranks top 2/4 on google local area searches) The economy part to blame. Easy wordpress sites and the like are also reducing demand for pricey custom works. Back to the smokey club scene again!

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  87. NCOT, just caught that you're a Birthday boy.

    Congrats! And stay thirsty my Turdish friend.

    Many happy returns.

    Chef

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  88. Heard an interesting story about prisoners of war in Germany (ww2). The Germans would let the rumor "leak" to the POWs that the allies were winning and the war would soon be over. Couple days later they would "leak" the opposite news. Result; the POWs were totally demoralized from the emotional hi-low swings.

    If you let exuberance run with a $2 pop, then get angry at a $3 drop, you're going to do yourself in, emotionally speaking.

    You have to KNOW where silver and gold are headed. The enemy is not some woman playing with other people's money. The only evil empire is the host of demons playing with your mind. Step away from the screen ... look at the weekly close.

    BTW: just because someone disagrees with you doesn't make him a TROLL - look it up.

    Look at the long term chart of silver posted yesterday. Just as anyone can plainly see that price over-shot to the high side, it can just as easily over-shoot to the downside, which makes a spike to $29 entirely possible.

    Take a walk by the river ... watch a robin slurp up a worm ... do SOMETHING instead of sitting here and seething.

    Over and Out

    ReplyDelete
  89. QE3 ++

    My prediction is really just a guess, but I think they will let the market tank all summer long and then throw out a QE3-4 but this time it will be a trillion $ or so and it will be made to last all the way through the election season of Novemeber 2012 so many mindless fools will be tricked into thinking it is a "recovery' because it will artificially prop up the equities market and Obama will win re-election. The inflation it will produce will be severe but less noticed than the media hipe showing the big gains in the stock market and particularly the financials. It is unbelievable how mis-managed it all is. They will convince China not to bail on us "just yet" until after the election. They know the ship is sinking and they will take care of each other while they still can screwing all the middle-class in the process. There will be some sort of stimulus geared to win over the poorer voters. And ironically, there will be a much larger class or poor people. Somehow, they will buy his re-election with this nonsense. My name is Rich and this is my guess. I hope I am wrong.

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  90. @ cali law....i have Berkey too....how do you make the seltzer water?

    ReplyDelete
  91. @Ewc58

    100% on the money. I like to look at my physical as the best cash money can buy. Even after buying on the way up for the last two years, I have a 60% gain. If I kept the money in cash I could have earned what---- wait for it --- 1% ? And that's after ag drops 30%!

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  92. @Waffen

    I hear ya, man. Don't know if any of that was tongue-in-cheek but assuming it was all for real - heed sp's wise words and hang on. Things go in phases.

    As far as getting your mom to buy physical, you did her a real service even if she doesn't realize it yet. Options trading is a skill, an art, and above all a discipline. Nobody gets good at it overnight. Sit back, analyze what you have done right and what you have done wrong. Make some trading rules for yourself. Read Chris Rowe's options trading stuff at tycoonu.com

    As far as the job situation, keep the paychecks coming if you can, but if it's beyond your control, embrace the change and move forward. You never know, it might be the best thing that can happen to you.

    I know nothing about vegetable gardening, but I think it's highly over rated unless you simply enjoy it as a hobby. If you don't, then plow it under and forget about it. You can buy nice tomatoes for $1.29/lb.

    Hang in there, Buddy. You've got friends here.

    ReplyDelete
  93. @ Old Navy

    Very nice post. Best wishes to all. Going to take the Murphy for a 4 mile walk. Enjoy the early weekend everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @0da727ce-6b85-11e0-b5df-000bcdcb8a73

    a/k/a Rich

    Probably not too far off. I'm guessing the money they are "borrowing" from the Federal Employee retirement programs will be paid back but that money won't be included in the QE headline announcement. Thus the QE would be called $400 million while another $600 million would go back to the pensions under a different name. Perhaps Compensation Reimbursement for American Patriot act, or CRAP, is an appropriate name.

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  95. I had a good day today. I added to my Comex gold position on a stink bid overnight.

    I should have sold some as we approached $1550, but I was playing "Lothar of the Hill People" with my wife.

    I'm going to hold over the weekend based on today's higher high and higher low.

    ReplyDelete
  96. @SilverIsKing -

    I would'nt mind some more QE - My wife is in a 457deferred compensation plan ( The Company puts in 8% of her gross) I moved most of the money in to Schwab Retirement Advantage Money (basically stable 1% yield - I got tired of watching the negative returns - now at least -knowing that QEx is coming I can ride the elevator back toward the top - rinse and repeat - the nice thing is here is no 10% penalty for withdrawal before the age of 59½ -

    but we have to wait two more years more to borrow more against it ( we took out 50% loan in 09' and bought Physical - we also get 3½% back on our own money).

    I wish that we could borrow again and buy even more Physical - but we have to wait - Standard manages it - but that is changing -the new admin (ICMA-RC) is supposed to offer a SDBO - which Standard doesn't.

    Hopefully in 2 years we will still be able to borrow and buy.

    So at least I know how to massage the retirement money for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Thanks Murphy, as you're saying, that's the peace of mind that comes with being a PM owner.

    The triple I'm talking about is the Ag I bought for my PM IRA. Aside from that, like you I've been buying it since.

    I Wazere said one must KNOW where PMs are headed. No problemo there. The way I see it, anything under 50 p/oz is just The Ridiculous Bargain of the Ages.

    I'm saying that in context of the belief that we may see Ag 300 in 3 to 5 years. People who think that sounds high need to do the GSR math on Au 3500 - 5000. No big whup, just do the math.

    ALL I REALLY FOCUS ON is how to come up with a decent size monthly or biweekly PM buy. I bought it at 15, at 20, at 25, at 30, at 35, at 40. I'll buy it at 50, 60, 70, 80. You get the idea.

    The irony of being able to accumulate PMs all this time, in return for increasingly worth-less frns, while in effect being subsidized by the price suppression schemes of BM and the Flying Monkeys?

    PRICELESS.

    No, really :-)

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  98. @I Wazere

    You are so right. Everyone needs to keep at least a one year (or 5 year)chart around so the long term picture is in your mind as often as the one day.

    @D E

    Thanks. I didn't mean my post to sound like a farewell, though, just that trading silver options is no longer my primary tactic. I most likely won't be on the blog as much after next week, but I'll still be around. Maybe we'll put a friendly wager on the A/N game...

    ReplyDelete
  99. A little tree shaking is all this is.....just have some patience....if you are in options then you were warned

    ReplyDelete
  100. @Yoni,

    Similar situation here. Moved my entire 401k from equities to money market at Dow 14k and watched the collapse in comfort. Wasn't smart enough to ride it back up but am now waiting for the mini crash to get back in but only after another QE is announced. I won't try to catch a falling knife.

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  101. blah i don't trust it right now. maybe a lil dollar rally is in order.

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  102. hard to imagine it could get any support here at these levels, but i hate the lack of speed.

    ReplyDelete
  103. @silverisking

    out of curiosity what was ur personal signal to go from 100% to 0% at Dow 14k (obviously an excellent call)...i don't mean the obvious part about the market being overvalued, i mean why 1400 and not 1300 or 1200, etc? was it technical, fundamental, or event-driven?

    ReplyDelete
  104. Great presentation by James Turk from 29 April 2011 in Munich, Germany.

    "The gold price, the dollar and the euro"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxMdZ0d0qew&feature=feedu

    "The dollar collapse"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xrvTviytOY

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  105. DJIA down again, NASDAQ down,POSX off a cliff, AG stuck under 37, notice AU doing fine. $ is not a safe haven but AU is. AG... well I'll sit on physical and try not to watch spot.

    I think crude has the most potential as WW3 rumbles along in the ME. When POSX bottoms and Saudi starts sellin in Yuan, barrel/$ will rise perhaps astronomically. So the slaughter of the US middle class continues. Got popcorn?

    ReplyDelete
  106. @SilverisKing

    Yeah, I was'nt smart enough to ride it up either, I was aware the crash was coming in 07' - I just wished that Turd was around then - I woulda done a things a whole lot different.

    @ecw58

    This is something that put a smile on my face last month - we came close to a 10X increase since 04' if we do it again in 3 yrs we are $350/oz - quite likely I think - but this should help you smile reading this... EXPLODED -Haha

    "Silver Corrects or Crashes? April 30, 2004

    ....In the last few months, silver has certainly lived up to Dr. Jastram’s prescient moniker. Since the beginning of February, silver has exploded from near $6 to over $8 only to plummet back down under $6 again. To put this into perspective, a similar percentage swing in gold would have yielded a jaw-dropping spike from $400 to $545 to a subsequent swift collapse back down under $400, all since early February! Wow."

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  107. @Long John:

    http://www.amazon.com/SodaStream-Pure-Starter-Black-Silver/dp/B001NZZ08S/ref=dp_cp_ob_k_title_3

    I do not add baking soda. I just run tap water through the Berkey, hit it with carbonation, then put in fridge for a bit. It is very refreshing.

    And cheap, so I can keep stacking!

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  108. S&P 1299 is not good for week close. For many reasons, let's hope there's somebody to prop it up into 4pm. My fear is the algos will wake up Monday morning and go apesh!t again on all risk. I'm saying that even though I have a short on, I don't have it on to make money, I'd rather lose money as it's a hedge and only a partial one at that. Much rather see AG 40+ and hold. Stocks sucking wind will make that very hard.

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  109. @shill,
    Beefeater gets a bad name, but I love it. It's the only thing I drink. Sometimes I add vermouth.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Terri 5125

    Gold ETF's are pretty easy to use. Check out the following symbols:

    UGL, DGP, DGL, DGZ, GLL, DZZ

    Some are long, some are short, some are 1X, some are 2X, so do your own homework.

    ReplyDelete
  111. waffen

    hang in there, we're all pulling for you.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Cookie

    hope all is well with you.

    ReplyDelete
  113. It would be Crown Royal (another purple bag for shiny), but I've got a negative wealth effect going on now, so it's Kessler's for me. :( haha

    ReplyDelete
  114. Odd to see the down down triple figures with the POS$ at 73.

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  115. "...silver has exploded from near $6 to over $8 only to plummet back down under $6 again all in a single month." Seven years ago. 4/2004

    Heck $2 moves in a 24 hour period.

    Fast forward. 2-3 years Silver up 6X today ($215)

    half the time same multiplier ($6 * 6 vs. $36 x 6)

    Phone conversation with
    Local coin shop - yeah we have Roosevelt dimes. $20 each ( $3 premium over spot) $1,000 bag of 90% -- $150K

    Keep stackin'

    ReplyDelete
  116. After yesterday's beatdown, I couldn't take it again today so I took a break to pass a kidney stone. Refreshing! Much more tolerable than watching this "market" has been. Home from the ER and things are looking better. Added bonus: Vicodin. (Maybe that's why things look better?)

    varification: "hypeses" hmmmmmmmmmm

    ReplyDelete
  117. Apparently drugs can also cause slurred typing.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Whoever posted this link earlier today, thanks. I have it bookmarked. Probably we all should. At the bottom of the article is a silver quiz. It's good!

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/what-do-you-know-about-silver-trends-2011

    ReplyDelete
  119. I'm officially on hiatus from stacking right now (need to pay down some credit cards!), but the last of what I bought on ebay just came in the mail today!! It's just a little Mex 5 peso, but any day that the mailman brings me shiny stuff is a good day! :D

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  120. Erik- thanks for giving me the suggestion!

    Anyone else have some suggestions on best ways that you have found to trade gold-- I want to start with maybe $2000 and remember I am beginner...I do have the ability to stay on it throughout day or night.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Yoni, thanks. I'll hear Dr. Jastrum is now a proctologist.

    :-0)

    ReplyDelete
  122. terri5125

    Don't forget about GTU also. That's a closed end fund that actually has the gold, so if you worry about that sort of thing, check them out too.

    Also the Spott version of the same thing. PHYS

    ReplyDelete
  123. What an oddly fluid globex market. Even has some volume behind it. On a friday. If silver is good at doing one thing, then it is to utterly confound me, multiple times, in all directions.

    Silver seems to be getting some life back, some independence. First it moved down pretty much with everything. Euro goes down a little against the dollar? Hop, there goes silver. Gold goes down? Silver falls off a cliff. Oil not very stable? Silver needs a parachute. Of course, whenever any of these did something that ought to have pulled silver up, it just sat there like a morose puppy.

    Last couple of hours silver has finally been going places without it being held hand by some other entity. And when gold/oil moves down, or the euro decides its worthless after-all and props the dollar, silver shrugs it off, makes a dip perhaps, but heads up again. Not saying that this will keep on going, but it sure feels refreshing from the usual roll-over-and-die strategy we've seen the last few days.

    Also, now I'm finishing an open bottle of wine.

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  124. Sprott, not Spott.

    More Kessler's!

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  125. @cali law....gracias, may be trying it tonight!!

    ReplyDelete
  126. Next week is a super payer guys. I'll be long and sauced on the beach this weekend. Good luck all. I'm out.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ Fleve - I agree and it showed a reasonably strong close so hopefully we see positive action next week; If not I keep buying more CEF, GDX and GDXJ everyday until RSI pops above 50. Then I keep holding. My SLV options are bleeding bad though so here is hoping for a return to better action next week! Have a good weekend everybody - if there is anybody still left!

    ReplyDelete
  128. Between the two us, my BF and I drank three $4.00 bin end bottles of a 2002 Australian red wine last night. I spent the day slouched and hungover and popped a Tylenol with Codeine to take the edge off.

    I am leveraged and nervous. But I KNOW without a doubt, we are going to dance this mess around one day (having a B52's moment).

    I add my supreme gratitude to you Turd for your honesty. It's refreshing to "meet" people who are so very real. Muchos thanks to you and a MIGHTY FINE group of people here!

    ReplyDelete
  129. Why do i feel like something huge is going to happen over this weekend?

    ReplyDelete
  130. @kasscoos89

    Perhaps you have precognitive feelings.

    "The mind of man is capable of anything — because everything is in it, all the past as well as all the future." ~ Joseph Conrad

    ReplyDelete
  131. Hope you got some beef at the lows today Turd.


    MOOOOO!!

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  132. Opening from Bill Murphy's daily Midas update. Want gold-friendly? Asswipe D. Gartman relayed on Bloomberg Bozo Network this morning that he sold 1/2 his gold. Or whatever BS Au substitute this douchebag calls "gold". Denny has easily the worst record on gold calling out there. Small wonder the EE's legions of media sycophants constantly interview this bloated clown. You've heard of What Not to Wear? Listen to Gartman on What Not to Do with Gold.

    -----------------------------------------

    What a surprise! The US jobs report was a disaster…

    8:30 May US Non-farm payrolls +54K vs. consensus +151K
    * Unemployment rate 9.1% vs. SA consensus 9.0%
    Apr rate was 9.0%
    * * * *

    That crummy report follows lousy news on the US real estate front. Of course, The Gold Cartel knew the jobs report would be awful and felt compelled to SHOOT THE MESSENGER, that being gold, ahead of the report. CAN IT GET ANY CLEARER? When a market trades a certain way 95% of the time, you don’t need to be Einstein to figure it out.

    Gold was under pressure going into the report during early London trading hours and hit a low of $1527 on the Comex. However, after the report, the price of gold soared to $1547. Why? Because it has become so obvious that the US is going to have to implement more stimulative economy measures to get our economic going the right way. It means a QE3 of some sort, no matter what they call it … which is very gold friendly. SO… gold, the most obvious barometer of what is going to transpire in the future, was taken to the woodshed yesterday before the bad news hit the tape in order to prevent the price from starting to the upside at a much higher level. Had gold traded freely yesterday, with the dollar so weak, it might have finished the day around $1550. With today’s news it could have easily made all-time highs, and that would be a headliner event, just when the Behavioral Finance folks are reeling.

    As is, gold did make an all-time high in another currency…

    Gold priced in sterling hits record high

    LONDON, June 3 (Reuters) - Gold priced in sterling hit a record high of 946.79 pounds an ounce on buying triggered by a weaker dollar across a basket of currencies.

    Gold in dollars hit a session high of $1,546.39 an ounce compared with $1,532.55 an ounce late in New York on Thursday as the U.S. currency tumbled after a disappointing monthly jobs report from the United States.

    -END-

    Silver was hit hard early, supposedly in reaction to the dismal US economic news. It dropped all the way down to $34.92 and was noticeably lower on the day, even as gold began flying to the upside. It was all knee-jerk stuff, with The Gold Cartel doing all they can to keep the silver spec longs in a paralysis of sorts. I say that because copper, which is much more tied into economic factors than silver, was only down a piddly TWO cents early. Later in the morning, it was UP 4 cents.

    The gold open interest fell 7118 contracts to 503,511. Yesterday’s plunge spooked a number of spec longs and they exited. The Gold Cartel does it again … and to HIM again. The best news of the day…

    Gartman Sells 50% of Gold Holding After Decline, Says Further Drop Likely - Bloomberg, Jun 3 2011 7:43AM

    ReplyDelete
  133. Thanks for the wellwishes guys.

    These painkillers eased me out of the hole a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  134. They are setting the stage for the next stimulus of whatever kind. The bad employment numbers violates Bernanke's dual mandate of "subdued inflation" and "higher employment." Notice how QEIII (or whatever they wanna call it/do) wasn't even being mentioned in the mainstream, and now it is debated suddenly on cue? Every truth has its time, and this time is approaching.

    A lot of people are expecting the market to have to crash or severly correct before they deploy more debt in this surreal experiment. What makes you so sure they won't take a "pre-emptive" step on attacking all of this? I am biased towards pre-emptive easy money/credit without too much pain, as the American psyche can't handle any more castasrophe. If we have a big crash, Obama will be useless in rallying the mass perception, a very important tool of the global EE. And how do you think they are going to convince the public that it will work this time (QE III) after it clearly failed while it was in place.... no way, to much of a liability at this point if the market crashes for the Fed... Especially if the market crashes on bad news, when people are expecting it to.... to me that spells turnaround, as there is no way TPTB will let mainstream thought happen at crucial times... that is when they surprise us the most and we all go "wow I wish I saw that coming."

    I see gold making 1600+ in the near future, possibly even by Turd's call of next Friday...

    Would be something wouldn't it? A crashing dollar, a rally in the market, more bailouts everywhere? I think they are willing to have higher prices in gold and silver to keep the perception of recovery alive.

    You know how you are always suppose to trust your first instinct? Well, $1600 by June 10th was Turd's first "big hit." I don't think we should discredit this notion just yet....

    ReplyDelete
  135. OldNavy,
    Congrats to you and your wife (and your daughter!) on the wedding! ..I always read your posts with alot of interest and since you and I (I think) started with these SLV options at nearly the same time I have to say that I admire you for cutting your losses and moving on. For better or worse I am going to take the opposite path with them here and hold on for a while longer (July calls). Pray for me and I will pray for you. LOL. ......Just need/want/hope to recover enough to get back my original investment. We'll see how that goes as it's just as likely that I'll bleed more next week and the next and the next.... I sure was (still am) such a newbie. Right after I got out with a little profit (and Eric was proud of me....lol) I no sooner jumped back in and thought it was a good time to do so near a bottom. .....Not so much. "/

    So.. now here I sit just watching it all dwindle away. ....Let's still keep posting about it and trying to figure out strategies..but I totally agree with you that you have to move your attentions to things in your life there that matter a lot more than SLV options! :]

    waffen,
    Hang in there. Don't make rash decisions based on how you are feeling right now. I know how hopeless 'hopeless' feels but it won't last forever. Things will turn around and when they do a new day is going to feel like the world has been lifted off of your shoulders. It will happen. I'm waiting and working on it too right there with you. We'll make it. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  136. gin? Gin? GIN!?!? Girly drink.

    After all these shenanigans, y'll need a Man's drink: http://i96.photobucket.com/albums/l173/barnz008/don_julio_0860_r2.jpg

    :woot:

    ReplyDelete
  137. This was good. James Corbett does an audio interview with Bob Chapman once a month. This is from yesterday. Bob smells a rat in the odd calm in the face of raising of the debt limit. By what, upward of 3 trill? Sees connections to 401K/IRA raids. Lots of other good topics covered too.

    For anyone not familiar with Mr. Corbett, I rate him 2 big thumbs up. Soup for Jim and Bob!

    The Corbett Report homepage: http://www.corbettreport.com/

    Chapman interview:
    http://www.corbettreport.com/interview-340-bob-chapman/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CorbettReportRSS+%28The+Corbett+Report%29

    ReplyDelete
  138. Turd,

    I HEART that Gold chart. Saaa-weeeet.

    Ag solid in mid 30's, soon the next move higher.

    That should get me to Sunday night feeling pretty good. Thanks. Hope you're finally enjoying a nice tall BM. Bloody Mary of course.

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  139. Day is done. I've got:

    July Silver at 36.285, up from 35.065 low

    Aug Gold at 1543.60, up from 1524.90 low

    July WTI at 100.57, up from 98.12 low

    POSX Spot at 73.73, down from 74.459 high

    July Corn at 7.52, down from 7.69 high

    Going home long all but the POSX. May 31 numbers looked pretty good, but gave a shitpot full back to open June. I want it back.

    Good weekend to all.

    Thanks again, Turd. RnR till Sunday night!

    Waffen, hang in there, buddy. Sometimes you have to eat crow -- chew it up and spit it out!

    Besides, it could have been your mother-in-law...

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  140. Ewc thanks for the wishes!

    Been a worrying day and thought I was being sensible by closing some positions at 35.50 and when it dropped to 35.12 I was ok with that... Then it bounced and I never got back in , so now with silver back at where it was 24hrs ago, I'm worse off! Anyway. See how Monday pans out, I'm not stressing this weekend!

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  141. Waffen

    Do I understand that you bought physical silver?

    If so, rest assured it was a wise move. I have been buying physical silver since 2006, and most of the time at or near an intermediate peak. DO NOT SELL IT!!!!

    It is in your hands. Nothing is better these days.

    I am down on paper and a little on my latest physical buy. The paper causes me heartburn.

    The physical is INSURANCE!!!

    ReplyDelete
  142. God Bless all!
    Have a good weekend.
    I'm glad your feeling a little better Waffen - stay strong man

    ReplyDelete
  143. Aww gee whizz Ginger

    I'm always proud of you!

    I'd be even more proud of you if you wouldn't let yourself be trapped in an underwater trade. Dump it, and start with a clean slate. Control your own destiny, girl! Be the hammer, not the nail.

    OK, maybe this is the whisky talkin'...

    ReplyDelete
  144. Little update on the Dow Gold Ratio (DGR)

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$INDU:$GOLD

    ReplyDelete
  145. seems like the POSX wants to break through 73 quickly.

    Waffen, hang in there, it's all about the ounces - difficult sometimes to be more farsighted than the 99% - they'll remain upset, might not be able to change that, but they'll look at you differently when the spot price rises beyond the purchase price & in the future when everyone is scrambling to exchange worthless USD's for anything real, and in particular, gold & silver.
    Have faith, keep a broad perspective and fight through the pain for betters days for you will return.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Waffen

    your cry reaches out to us.

    Your certainty that PM's will come good is not misplaced but weve all been given a lesson in the ability of the evil empire to strike back when it suits.

    Trying to get those around you to open their minds and glimpse reality is probably the hardest thing we collectively have to do. This is what Turds site is about. This is why we are here.

    Beating up on yourself, when your attempts at educating others bite back, serves no purpose and getting smug when it goes well brings emnity from those who listened but did not act.

    Just got to learn to soak it up and KNOW you will
    be right in the end.
    I only offer opinion to those who ask, cos its simpler ......

    all - reached an undisclosed age recently that allowed me to stop paying into a little pension plan and get some back.
    Awesome, I'll cash it in and buy gold cos its not much of a pension. It was just a way to cop some free money when Scottish Widows went PLC a few years ago .....
    Anyway it turns out I can only cash it in if the fund value is less than £18k, otherwise it's 20% lump sum and 50p a week .....
    So I suggested they take the £1200 surplus and put it in their benevolent fund.
    Nope, we would rather give you the 50p a week.

    So now Im gagging for a market plunge of around 20% or so, that will suitably destroy my pension fund enough to allow me to cash it in and convert it to the shiny stuff.

    Could this be considered a hedging strategy (-;

    rbl

    ReplyDelete
  147. waffen

    A long time ago, in a galaxy far far away, I bought my first bunch of gold around spot 400. When it got to 300, I looked like an idiot, but I doubled down and bought another equal bunch of ounces. Don't need to tell you the rest.

    HANG IN THERE!!

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  148. Ginger

    You should follow my posts closely as I am often an excellent CONTRARY indicator! If I sell out all my calls, we are probably at the bottom and will turn around nicely in the next session!

    I have experienced options positions that went red and recovered. I have experienced options positions that went red, I didn't sell, they went more and more red and expired worthless. I was determined to hold this week's buys until expiration if necessary, but as I watched the spot price systematically being walked down day by day and no rebound, I decided I was not going to risk watching my positions sink any further. I hit my risk tolerance limit.

    Last week was a great week for me. This week I should have sat on the sidelines. I'm now at one of those step back and re-evaluate moments. One thing that I am confident of is that the silver bull will offer me more and better opportunities in the coming months. Maybe in the fall, or maybe even next week. I am leaning more toward gold in the near term, however.

    The point of the "harmonic wealth" concept is that all five types of wealth are important and need attention if we are to have a "harmonic" existence. That does not mean evenly balanced. Some people need more financial wealth than others, some need more relationsship wealth than others, some people are neglecting their physical wealth. The point is to understand if your account balances in each category are what you need them to be, and work to build them up if they are not.

    Some people, and women in general, are more adept at multi-tasking across the five categories. I have to shift targets, so to speak, if I want to pay special attention to one or another. We all have our own disabilities.

    Have a great weekend! We'll see what Monday brings for the silver bull...

    ReplyDelete
  149. @ Waffen,

    The good news is that the world is always turning/changing.

    Faith is the bird that sings while the dawn is still dark!

    ReplyDelete
  150. @ Waffen and For All ~~~

    My favorite version of the tune, YOU GOTTA HAVE HEART - from an outstanding 1970's Boston band, Orchestra Luna - bet most of you younguns never heard of this band.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emP_DxA1KzE
    PLAY IT LOUD!

    For those who like guitar solos, I throw in this gem too ~ Doris Dreams - Randy Roos guitar solo comes in at 5:07: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX57YEyQkuE&feature=related

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  151. wish all of u a good wknd...

    waffen- u especially man, go enjoy the summer sun if u can

    @oldnavy

    an excellent way to look at life, thx for the wise words for all of us & congrats to u & family

    ---

    TRADING

    i have traded complex options spreads, but nothing ever got as confusing as silver has been this week. unless u really know what u r doing, this is one to prob stay away from until the market decides what will happen.

    in fact, if u want to trade anything btwn now and mid summer, u need to decide how much u think "they" will let the market (whole risk complex) bleed b4 next round of QE...

    as with all trading though, it is not enough to say i think "xyz will happen" - u need to assign probabilistic values to the events to know how much money u want to put at risk. for me, right now, the situation screams "be careful!" long or short.

    i went long options on SPY futures today but this is only for a short-term bounce and based upon the following technical observation:

    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/06/rare-setup-that-has-produced-returns-of.html

    (don't kill me if u go in though and it fails, this is a "willing to lose 100%" trade for me.)

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  152. Alright, screw it all. I tryed buying and sell bewteen ZSL and AGQ today, after taking a beating the last couple days. Screwed up on each trade except for the one where I made a HUGE $10.

    Gold/Silver ratio closing at 41.5
    Gold near highs, Silver ~73% of highs.
    Silver bugs say the true GSR should be 16-1.

    Dollar is shit. Even if QE3 doesn't come on the heels of QE2, even if the DOW has to take a beating before Ben comes to the rescue, even if everyone runs to gold and screws silver. Even if the Comex defaults/pays with paper/provides sexual favors....

    ...THERE IS NO WAY SILVER WILL BE LESS THAN $36 OZ BY THE END OF THE YEAR, OR NEXT YEAR, OR THE YEAR AFTER THAT!

    I AM sick of watching the Kitco chart go up and down, then trying to figure out what is going on.

    So I just took everything I have in my one account (half of my brokage account), bought AGQ, and I'm going to not make another trade in this account until October.

    Until then I will add to my physical stack. $36 spot certainly is cheaper than my $44 spot purchase a month ago.

    Enjoy you weekend folks.

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  153. Yo, Dudes and Dudettes,

    I think scottj88's post at 4:57 deserves some discussion. The world economy is way too fragile for the US market to have a sell-off of any significant proportion without having serious negative effects on the world economy....but I'm repeating scott's post. Please read it for yourself; it is worthy of serious consideration imho.

    GLTA

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  154. According to THIS guy the FED is the one behind PM price manipulation

    Check it out

    http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1105OILFEDVD/LOILM601/PR

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  155. Today's action in silver sure looks like a nice juicy bottom to me. (I like how that sounded.) Will know more on Monday, but heck, as soon as we start trending above 36.40, I'd say this awful teeth nashing period will be behind us (that is, until the next jarring correction that I don't see coming). Sigh.

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  156. @ Tesla

    That guy Stansberry is a con artist. He's been involved in securities fraud and already fined by govt. Search his name: Porter Stansberry.

    Just an FYI. (I looked after watching entire video...which is actually well done; but just a lure).

    McMoo

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  157. LevelHeaded said...
    Next week is a super payer guys. I'll be long and sauced on the beach this weekend. Good luck all. I'm out.

    ---------------

    @Level: What exactly about next week makes you so sure and confident?

    Just trying to understand and considering my options in going back Long on Monday asian morning.

    Thx.

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  158. QE or not to QE? There is no question.

    We keep up the quandry on this but we already have the answer. Scottj88 is correct, there will be continued stimulation and it my have started already. BS Benanke told us after the APR FOMC that, while QE would come to an end in JUN, the FED has "maturing debt" on its balance sheet that it will be replacing after that. In other words, "we're going to keep buying government debt, but it won't be called QE3". Q:How much of this maturing debt do you suppose the FED has? A: As much as they will need to have. Nobody knows what the balance sheet says, so they can pretty much decide what it needs to be and that's how much debt they buy.

    There, that wasn't so hard was it?

    :)

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  159. @McMoo
    Sorry I should have said in advance who it was... but the interesting part was the documents he whipped out regarding memos between the US President and the Federal Reserve re: suppressing Gold prices, right?

    I think it makes sense. The manipulation that is occurring in PMs pretty much requires bottomless pockets and regulators with hands tied - who has deeper pockets than the FED and who can tie hands better than the Govment?

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  160. @ JoeKa

    For the record, I think next week will be an epic week for all risk assets, gold and silver especially, and most "importantly" the stock market (for the perception management crew). Dollar closing where it did ensures tradgedy on behalf of its nominal value next week. It all pieced together when I read the above quote...

    --

    Gold was under pressure going into the report during early London trading hours and hit a low of $1527 on the Comex. However, after the report, the price of gold soared to $1547. Why? Because it has become so obvious that the US is going to have to implement more stimulative economy measures to get our economic going the right way. It means a QE3 of some sort, no matter what they call it … which is very gold friendly. SO… gold, the most obvious barometer of what is going to transpire in the future, was taken to the woodshed yesterday before the bad news hit the tape in order to prevent the price from starting to the upside at a much higher level. Had gold traded freely yesterday, with the dollar so weak, it might have finished the day around $1550. With today’s news it could have easily made all-time highs, and that would be a headliner event, just when the Behavioral Finance folks are reeling.

    ---

    The EE are experts in Perceptin Management, and you can't have the true currency making all time highs during the ponzi scheme's day of darkness. By next week, when stocks are bouncing on a falling dollar and some other red-herring reasons, gold and silver will have the room to surge in the background. They had to get the "bad news" out of the way while gold was "only up less than $10" <--- CNBC quote all day.

    ---

    Also, Jesse seems to agree. He was sniffing out this out for a while in the equities.

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/06/sp-500-and-ndx-futures-daily-charts_03.html

    ---
    If we didn't think that gold was going to double top and go into a summer drydum, wouldn't this be the perfect set-up for an up move next week? I think we have become too afraid, but the confidence will return as the show plays out for all of us to watch.

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  161. @OldNavy

    Whew that Fed really scares me - like It and its buddies around the world are the Beast of Revelations. (and the number is infinity)

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  162. @Scottj88: you really make a compelling argument buddy.

    Ok I am gonna ponder this and more going into the weekend (already here for me!)

    I was so sure that we were going as high as 43 in mid June til the shenanigan chart action over the past week. Hence I got scared out of my position.

    But i think perhaps you may have a VERY strong point here.

    You have a nice weekend. :)

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  163. @JoeKa

    Glad you asked that, I was wondering the same thing. So, Level, if you're here, tell us what you see, or were you just being encouraging?

    BTW, JoeKa, glad to see the green-haired boy is back. That Homey character was really unnerving to me! :))

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  164. Hey oldNavy.

    Yeah i missed this green cherub too after all my attempts to infuse some morale boosters on the blog over the past couple days.

    Also pls accept my well wishes on your daughter's wedding. You must be the proudest dad on the planet right now. :)

    As for commodities next week, i think Scottj has a great point. I'm gonna be doing some info digging myself this weekend. will post up here if i find anything of interest which could support scott's and level's assertions.

    To be sure i was convinced that AG and AU were going for one nice long punt up to mid june before they capitulate to find new lows post May massacre. I have to admit being scared and shaken out of my position yesterday at a loss.

    Shows you that even more experienced traders have trouble keepin their nerves about them in these markets. LOL

    I hope to get stronger in this regard.

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  165. To those who are still conscious and still standing ;) ...

    On a scale of 1-10 how significant is it that the S&P went below 1300 today?

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  166. Want to see what Bob Chapman looks like?

    In the latest issue of the International Forecaster Bob left a link to this video:

    "First Appearance In 10 Years!! Bob Chapman At The Wealth Protection Conference 2011!!"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgS7HBWj_Zs

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  167. Jun 4, Jupiter will leave Aries and ingress into Taurus. An astro event that will change some of the cosmic energy outfit, and this change in cosmic energy will affect the people' persceptions and in turn affecting some of the markets. The effect can either be felt immediately or as late as up to 7 deg into Taurus.

    Moreover, we are also in the weaker phase of the new moon to full moon cycle now. Jun 1, the big gold and silver drops have probably heralded the onset of its cycle influences. Going forward, the odd is for the cycle to continue to exert its influence on the price till mid June, if cycle inversion does not happen this month.

    Jun 13 is Martin Armstrong's ECM low of the 8.6 years cycle. The end of a ECM cycle, at the same time the start of a new ECM cycle. So a date to watch out in one week time. Thus far, if he is right on his call, we should ideally be seeing both gold and silver trending towards a low on 13 Jun 11, to setup for a more lasting rise later.

    My own pentagram cycle date analysis shows a cluster of dates in the month of Jun, ranging from the Dow's 23 pentagram to Gold's 33 and 47 pentagrams. Thus I expect to see some big swings to come along with it. Notice that the 25 May and 31 May triggers saw the twin tops formed on those 2 dates. Those highlighted in yellow are dates when the major vertexes are being triggered.

    Gold's pentagram dates

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  168. OldNavy,
    I understand perfectly why you sold the options. Believe me.. I *DO* understand. Very tempted myself. The way I see it is that there is not a right or a wrong on this one.....yet. It could just as easily go one way or the other with bouncing back next week or by July expiry...or I could hold on to these to my own further detriment. We just can't know. I just feel that at this point I don't have alot more to lose on the downside.. literally my $1600.00 account is only worth $600. (I added $600 more to my initial $1K investment like that was a real brainy move in this silver mess!)

    My point is that you DID do the right thing ..for you! ..And at the moment the contrary stance of me hanging on seems to be the right move for me. Besides, I got the sneaky suspicion that your account is worth far more than mine and I would feel compelled to protect my investment more if we were talking $10K instead of $1K, etc. Not that the $1K doesn't matter to me ..it surely does. But I think of course the more you have on the line the more you must make tough calls to try to protect your assets. I am just not afraid at this point of what holding on will do to me. I more feel like spitting in the eye of the EE. Sort of a give me my money back or give me death mentality. LOL. ......Yeah, that'll be my cold dead body you'll see the EE steamroll over soon enough but so be it. No Fear. Playing to win ...cause I'm right. (Probably right with some expired worthless options soon) :D

    Oh...and I disagree that you are a good contrarian indicator. ;) ...I keep up with you pretty well and you've not done all that shabby ...I appreciate all that you have contributed here to the blog. You were one of the 'early' peeps I followed who even got me started with options. :] .......Hey.. wait... come to think of it... ......It was YOU!...hmmmpfh. ..I'll have to rethink my admiration vs. anger level of you. :D :D

    Ok...sorry I rambled so much. Your harmonic wealth posts should be considered by all.

    Eric,
    LOL. ..Just when I was getting the hang of this whole options thing the EE done pulled the rug out from under me. But I'm not hanging in there due to fear...or greed. Just being patient and hoping for the best. In a round-a-bout way I AM being the hammer ...hoping to drive the nail thru the heart of the evil doer manipulators. ;)

    Put that whiskey bottle down. I'd rather drink paint. LOL. :D

    Dakini,
    "Faith is the bird that sings while the dawn is still dark!"

    I LOVE THAT!! That little bird is chirping away in my life right now. I will remember this quote. ;)

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  169. Ginger requoted Dakini,
    "Faith is the bird that sings while the dawn is still dark!"

    ---------------

    OMIGOSH! What an awesome line!
    Love it.

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  170. Ginger says: "Give me my money back or give me death"

    I LUV THAT!!

    ReplyDelete
  171. Uh oh, daughter is kicking me off the computer again. nite nite.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Hey JoeKa,
    I agree.. just think about that line. Perfect. True. It's all you've got sometimes to keep you going.

    And yes.... I much prefer your chubby cheeked cherub-like persona. :] .....All those clowns were starting to freak me out a smidge. :D

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  173. @Eric: I would like to tweak that Ginger quote slightly...with Ginger's permission of course:

    >> Give me MY money back or I give YOU death

    =P

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  174. Eric,
    You need to cash in a gold coin and get your daughter a computer.

    Yeah. I said it. You can part with ...*one*... lil coin.

    It won't kill you.
    :D

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  175. rofl JoeKa.

    I like your version much much better.

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  176. Death by a thousand gingery farts to them PM infidels.
    May their armpits be infested with a billion fleas.

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  177. Ok.. ...I've got to go myself.. ....I hope y'all will keep discussing the trends (as you see them) for the upcoming week/month. I am very curious as to how June will play out.

    Scott,
    Your posts as usual make me think. I need to go back and re-read them as I've only skimmed way too fast. C-YA! ;)

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  178. For those who wish to listen to an alternative viewpoint. Mihcael Tsarion describes the global EE...

    Interesting to here his comments about the setbacks they have had in achieving their overt power through the rise of man to where we are at now. What we are doing and what we are talking about on this blog has never had a chance to exist in such a dynamic, that much I know.

    Warning: His viewpoints are very controversial. It may cause disturbance to your perception of reality, but it is something that may stretch your mind as well. Only for the adventurous minds... not sure about all of it but he makes a good argument about reality.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK-Ewo5Rm-U

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  179. Ginger

    Yes, I liked Dakini's little bird saying, too. Thanks, Dakini.

    Ginger, I was not entirely truthful today. Yes, I liquidated my positions that I established this eek and ocnsidered my current positions. However, I also have a 90% underwater position on some JUL 46 calls that I have held open, just in case silver does rebound. I wouldn't make much by selling it now, so I might as well see if it regains some of its value.

    The calls I did close out today at a loss left me with enough dry powder to open some new positions when it seems right, so I'm not out of the game. That was the real reason behind the decision. Rule #1 (modified) is "Don't lose [all] your money".

    I am proud of my daughter. However, this is no steriotypical wedding. She is 36 and a former model and Las Vegas showgirl. Her husband to be is Swiss and they already have two boys. The ceremony will be held outdoors at a mountain resort in CO. We are excited and happy, though.

    She is our younger daughter. The older one and her family live just down the road form us here in GA. Six grandchildren 2-14 between the two. :)))

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  180. Eric.. put down the whiskey bottle... ....and JoeKa...... ...step away from the Indian food.

    :D
    lol.

    bye!

    ReplyDelete
  181. hear***

    As you can tell, I do not go back and revise my posts... that is why sometimes I just stray and have overtly poor spelling mistakes.

    @ Ginger + Joeka + OldNavy

    Enjoy yourselves as well :)

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  182. oldNavy said:
    I am proud of my daughter. However, this is no steriotypical wedding. She is 36 and a former model and Las Vegas showgirl. Her husband to be is Swiss and they already have two boys. The ceremony will be held outdoors at a mountain resort in CO.

    -----------------------

    Ok...NOW I'm impressed! Any chance of swinging some tickets over to Singapore!?

    Tickets!? What the heck am i sayin!? LOL

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  183. OldNavy,
    OH!.. I get it now.. ...Yes!.. I too would have sold more current options!...(If I'd had any!..lol) ..It's those underwater ones that I knew we both had/have that I wasn't clear on. Because with THOSE... I mean.. what's the point of selling because we've lost so much we may as well see if they will rebound. ..I totally get what you are saying. Yes.. we are on the same page.

    I would have done the same thing. ..I hope. Because I consider that a smart move in this week's silver market.

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  184. JoeKa

    I flew to Singapore a couple years ago. It's a looooong trip. I went via Houston and Moscow. I will send you an invitation, though, if you like!

    ReplyDelete
  185. Ginger...you HAVE TO LISTEN TO ME ON THIS CAREFULLY.

    Call this number:

    1800-TURD-ADDICTION

    They have a 10 step program which helps you leave the blog immediately after saying "Bye".

    I'm at step 3 myself.

    Good luck!

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  186. One last thing.. ...OldNavy.. 36 or 26 or 16.. ..she's your baby girl at any age. Enjoy the day with her and be blessed. I wish them (and their parents) lots of good times ahead.

    Ya know ..Silver doesn't have to be saved for the 25th wedding anniversary. I think in light of the times we can speed up those types of gifts for newlyweds. Hope she receives blessings of gold and silver to help sustain them in the times ahead.

    G'nite all. .....You can keep the air in here clear by hiding the indian food until I get back. :D

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  187. JoeKa

    LOL You're living up to your handle, Mate!

    ReplyDelete
  188. But that REALLY IS my name...albeit abbreviated.

    :(

    P.S. bye Ginger! For the 6th time! :) :)

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