Friday, June 10, 2011

Nuts, Not Today

I really, really wanted to open the new site this afternoon but I just got off the phone with my web developers and, unfortunately, there are still several kinks/bugs that need to be worked out. They've promised me, however, that we are a GO for Monday launch. Thank you for your patience.

I had sincerely hoped for a launch today, mainly because of this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html
Amazingly, calling a bottom and then having gold move from 1315 to 1577 is not enough for some people. I've got an idea...if you don't like it, you can kiss my sweet, hairy...
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=84164
Oh, how I wanted to open today. Just to piss off the tiny little whiners on that Kitco board and elsewhere. I sure would have liked to have poked them a bit. Maybe ruin their weekend. Darn it all.

Believe me, I would be glad to quit today and go away. Writing 2-3 witty, insightful and interesting blog posts per day is far more challenging than you might think. Extremely time consuming, too. But over the past three months or so, the response from Turdites requesting me to keep the site going has been overwhelming. I've also noticed that the world needs this site far more than I do. Look around, there are no PM-dedicated sites available today that provides the user with quality, non-biased information. None.

Well, there's about to be one...come Monday.
See you then. TF



323 comments:

  1. Looking forward to it! Cheers :)

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  2. F**K the kitco forum. I've been banned three years ago for calling Nadler an idiot.

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  3. Great predictions Turd, everything is happening just like you said!!

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  4. @waffen - this is for you

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJ_UuPH3cyw

    @atlee - a classic for you

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEMSqR-kvtc

    MARAdona - go fuck yourself, but first shut the fuck up

    Cheers to all! Have a great weekend!

    word ver = ismstoli......my thoughts exactly

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  5. Turd,

    Software is always more complex and takes longer than anticipated. If you were able to release a site that even "kind of" works within a month of your target date I would be highly impressed.

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  6. I think we can expect a big announcement from Europe this weekend. And that may be the reason for the takedowns in gold and silver today.

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  7. I'm very bullish just because I sense the fear here that people are expecting a big drop, I'm in heavy but there is no way I'm putting a stop loss, too stubborn at the moment ..... I do have a short at 35.9 to stop me being wiped out. If it goes down and I make profit or if it goes up and I miss taking profit on the way down I wait til 37 to break even. This is my plan anyway

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  8. Glad to see you're not letting the haters get to you, Turd. Screw 'em. You'll always have a core following of loyal readers, and we'll always far outnumber them.

    Can't wait to see the new site! Have a good weekend.

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  9. Keep it up Turd. Many here sincerely appreciate what you do. People forget, it's F***ing free and you are as good as anyone out there.

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  10. Thanks everyone.
    The criticism no longer bothers me as it just seems to come with the territory.

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  11. 'So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value.'

    The only thing wrong with this call was the second half of the statement.

    You have proven yourself to be of great value. The medium you provide and the direction you offer gives people a chance to educate themselves.

    I doubt you thought it would come this far, and who knows where the future will take us.

    --

    I just hope that there is time for tfmetalsreport to really get going before they enact some sort of internet security that effectively censors the internet.
    --

    Not a fan of this:

    Debating policy at this year’s meeting will be the Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Chris R. Hughes, Co-founder of Facebook, Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman of Google, Craig J. Mundie, Chief Research and Strategy Officer at Microsoft Corporation, and Reid Hoffman, Co-founder and Executive Chairman of LinkedIn.

    There you have heads of the five biggest online companies, indeed five of the biggest companies on the globe, all in attendance together at a secluded hideaway in the Swiss alps for the weekend.

    http://www.infowars.com/dear-mainstream-media-we-think-you-might-want-to-cover-this%E2%80%A6/

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  12. Turd! TURD! There is justice for you.

    Kitco has apparently been busted by the Canadians for massive tax evasion. They are part of 125 companies being prosecuted for $150 million in taxes not paid on nearly $2 billion in transactions.

    http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/10/revenue-quebec-investigates-massive-gold-fraud/

    We may need to switch from Kitco's live price widgets soon. I'm STUNNED at this. never would have dreamed these guys would get busted for something like this. This is so serious they have a court appointed receiver to run them while this gets sorted out:

    The company won court approval to appoint an interim receiver, RSM Richter, to help it deal with the allegations. Its daily operations are continuing as they normally do, said company spokesperson Sharlene Dozois.

    “[We appointed the receiver] to protect the interest of everyone and have someone work with us through the process,” Ms. Dozois said. “We did that voluntarily.”

    Just wow.

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  13. Well I don't know. Although he got today wrong, this is a good little PM site too: http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

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  14. It just hit me. Jon Nadler might be out of a job.

    =)
    =)
    =)
    =)
    =)

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  15. Turd:

    As far as I am concerned, 1577 is pretty close to 1600, so you nailed it in my book. I sure did not see anyone else making such an accurate prediction!

    Thanks for all that you have done, and are going to do. I have learned so much from your posts, and from the comments as well.

    I too am looking forward to your new site.

    I have been stacking physical, so the paper games are really just entertainment for me. I do feel bad for the others who have not had good fortune on the paper trading, though.

    The best advice I got from here was to prepare, which I have done, and which generates far more peace of mind than anything.

    Reading ferfal's blog helps put things into perspective as well.


    Anyway, I will follow your blog as long as you write it. Thanks again!

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  16. Haters gonna hate, don't quit Turd. WE NEED YOU!!!

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  17. I check your site more frequently then any other Turd, exactly for the reasons mentioned. I also enjoy the readers comments. Seldom does one find quality of both on a site.

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  18. Turd Thanks as always!

    Look forward to seeing what you have been working on - I'm thinking of that Snapple commercial:

    The best PM blog ever is just got better!!!

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  19. @humahuaca the fraud in CANADA is MUCH WORSE than the U.S. You can kill someone and end up getting only 10 yrs. You can defraud someone of their entire life savings and get 30 days. You can defraud the entire Teachers Union of millions and get NOTHING. There is NO SUCH thing as a watchdog for the stock market in CANADA.Inside trade all you want. Real Estate agents can defraud little old ladies of their homes and get a $500 FINE. You honestly believe CANADIAN economy is better? That's FUNNY! LOOK at the Derivative exposures the CANADIAN BANKS HAVE:

    Royal Bank ($624 billion assets) ; $4.8 trillion total derivatives ; $4.3 trillion OTC derivatives

    TD ($432 billion assets) ; $2.4 trillion total derivatives ; $2.1 trillion OTC derivatives

    BMO ($387 billion assets) ; $2.7 trillion total derivatives ; $2.0 trillion OTC derivatives

    Scotiabank ($429 billion assets) ; $1.3 trillion total derivatives ; $1.2 trillion OTC derivatives

    CIBC ($344 billion assets) ; $1.2 trillion total derivatives ; $1.1 trillion OTC derivatives

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  20. Great post turd.

    As always, you give simple statements that hold very deep truths!

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  21. Hey there Turd,

    Many thanks for your stirling commentary and analysis thus far. Your missives are a welcome part of my daily ipad commute time... My only gripe is that you worry and post too much about trolls and unpolite people having a go at you. Stick and stones eh!

    Just had a stupid thought, if you only had a "reverse junk" button, allowing people to junk a post ala ZH but it actually then gives the troll post a plus i.e so when people junk a trolls comment (what the troll wants) it gives the trolls post a positve green thumbs up popular mark instead. haha. or something like that.

    Keep up the good work Turd, looking forward to seeing the new site...

    Cheers!

    fredquimby

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  22. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  23. Turd,

    Can you let us know the web address of your new site. I'm leaving for China tomorrow for a week and your blog is inaccessible there (government blocks blogger). Unless you think a google search will bring me to your new site.

    Have a great weekend.

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  24. Economic Analyst, :)

    I sent that article to my buddy who is trying to play the CAD as a safehaven against the dollar. He is a very bright, but may not be seeing into this one deep enough.

    Your posts have the good stuff in them, keep em coming. I definitely appreciate each one :)

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  25. @ Patrick

    www.tfmetalsreport.com seems like it would fit the scheme (password protected right now), just taking a stab.

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  26. Incidentally many may not know this..KITCO went bankrupt in the 70's. They are not to be trusted.

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  27. Any possibility that Kitco's pool account could collapse exposing the fraud of paper trading in PMs???

    This would suck for holders of $$ and 'metal' both but would likely expose other fraudsters as well - no?

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  28. Seems to be plenty of fear around in the EE,desperate to force prices down,bad shit imminent next week by the look of it.Picked up some AR today,this is paper Silver dropping,prices for physical seem as competitive as ever with less and less to go round.All the best to yourself Turd,hope the new site is coming along ok,its a slog but it will be worth it.:) Bob.

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  29. errr I mean:


    This would suck for Kitco account holders whether in $$ or 'metal' - but would likely expose other pool account fraudsters as well - no?

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  30. You are doing something really worthwhile, Turd.

    There are a lot of scared people out there who just want to protect themselves and their families, and whose task is being made next to impossible by this juncture in history.

    It is a blessed thing for a firm hand on the tiller who can read charts and interpret events to speak up and out. The paid newsletter writers and analysts are influenced by their need to say the right thing and by their fear of losing subscribers by offering unhedged views.

    Anyone who's worth not banning on your website will understand that you won't be able to forecast the future perfectly on every occasion; but will appreciate that in your words they might find a reasoned gauge of where we are at and where we might be going.

    Looking forward to the new site.

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  31. No doubt about it Turd, this is the best site I've encountered and I encourage you to continue the great work. As time goes by your efforts will be positively acknowledged by all the good people that post here. We all know the negatories will come out of the woodwork and try to spoil but we also know this is about them not you or us as a community. We acknowledge that you do this painstaking work for the benefit of all and this is to be commended.
    Afterall these naysayers and trolls would hardly reciprocate in any sort of community they may call theirs cause they are in it for themselves. The way they manipulate, lie and steal from us that require markets to form our own retirement income says it all in their very definition. Can't wait for your new site.....Cheers

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  32. A tfmetal turd sure beats mainstream media bull shit!!!

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  33. mr ferguson, Thank you for all you do. I for one enjoy the commentary and guidance. One piece of advice though... Shake the haters off man. They are just trying to get under your skin and get a response from you. Don't sweat the small stuff your doing great

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  34. it won't be ready on monday too... I am an IT guy myself and I know how it usualy goes :))) I think we will see a new site in 2-3 weeks time.

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  35. Can't wait until Monday. Crude is going down, and hard. As you know, we are now out of storage across the world, and Obama and the Saudis are determined to break the long speculators. The saudis for their survival and for Obama's reeelction. He has warned us, I'd heed it.

    They will succeed. Demand is collapsing.

    This however will set up the miners for a tremendous boost when gold turns back up in dollars.

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  36. My number one news site! Best comment section on the internet too.

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  37. It looks to me like the new site is going to be located at...

    "http://www.tfmetalsreport.com"

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  38. Turd, I'm hooked on your site..and your witty, insightful posts.

    My number one concern is that you might burn out!

    Please pace yourself, you are my trusted advisor and the road could be a long one..

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  39. Gawd, does anyone who knows their a$$ from a hole in the ground use Kitco's forums?
    WTF?
    I'm here to get away from the Kitco know nothing's & heavy handed Nadler shill moderation.
    Is it too much to hope that cesspool of a forum will shut down?

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  40. I got to admit, I never thought your arss would be hairy!

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  41. Cant wait to see the new site Turd, keep doing what you're doing, screw the whiners

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  42. surely this front page fox news story will help the metals

    "economic fears"

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/06/10/stock-futures-signal-decline-dollar-gains/?test=MM

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  43. Obviously MARAdona loves Turd and this site. Unfortunately he manifests his love by trying to shit on people.

    He loves you, Turd. He's just confused about how to express it. It's a sad, sad story.

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  44. Turd, these people who expect perfect forecasts are INSANE and should be ignored. I know it can hurt and be infuriating...but, speaking for myself.....You are simply the most generous man as well as being darned professional and I certainly appreciate that! In this world, this is almost impossible to find....so, I'm supposed to be disgruntled because you are not a "miracle worker" and are all knowing about the future??

    Screw it!

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  45. oops...I should have said that "you are NOT all knowing about the future" which is snark, by the way!

    You are a prince among men!

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  46. Turd, thanks for all you do. This is still the best read in town. $1577 is much closer to $1600 than Master Bates' or Johnny Bravo's $1200 call. F*#@ um. If not, piss on them. Keep up the good work.

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  47. Turd,

    In the interest of transparency (and humor) I would suggest having a feature on your new site called "Turd's Toilet." There you can "file" all your calls that didn't pan out. :)

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  48. Turd, if my calulations are correct, 1600 - 1577 = 23 / 1600 =0.014375. That means you were within 99.98563% (100 - 0.014375) of your $1600 BY June 10th gold call. You never said ON June 10th but BY June 10th as far as I know. I think your call was awesome as 1577 has hit earlier than June 10th. Your insights are great. I appreciate all your hard work.

    Rich

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  49. Thanks for hanging in there Turd. There will be many happy times ahead. Looking forward to the new site.

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  50. Jim Rogers talks, silver, gold and oil. Keep the faith. The silver bull is going to last years.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/jim-rogers-talks-gold-silver-oil-2011-06-10/#!7CA002C4-37CE-4D16-80EA-426FF12D551A

    If you let the player keep playing, there are two more segments where Jim talks about shorting tech stocks and the rise of China.

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  51. @Turd
    I if may give you an advice: Do not take every idiot serious.
    You still seem to listen to each and every critics. Don't waste your time and energy on them. You should learn to ignore the worthless instead of fighting against their stupidity.

    The people here know your hard and precise work and honor it.
    Your considerations influenced me to make very, very good decisions and have so far brought me lots of money.
    If i would have followed you a bit earlier, i already could retire!
    Those idiots don't even know, how incredible on spot your analysis is. The bottom calls were WORLD CLASS!

    Be happy that these idiots stay away. They don't deserve to get this kind of quality info.

    Personally i think the end of QE2 will be a trend changer and i don't believe the June targets will be reached again.

    But if QE3 will come one day (and i see no other possibility how "financial repression" could be implemented without it), i will strongly need all your expertise, because they will have to manipulate the PMs more than ever, because of soaring demand.

    Have a nice weekend & all the best for
    THE BEST: TF!

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  52. Turd,not sure how much of a history buff that you are,but have you read Thomas Jeffersons comments/opinions concerning the US Banking system as well as the paper vs.physical concerns that he had way back then? Very prophetic. Best. Steve

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  53. @Turd

    I don't know about the criticism you speak of. I've said before that I read your blog and your blog only, and it's true. 1577 isn't close to 1600.

    It is 1600. They are one in the same.

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  54. Turd, when you know you are right, and you are right, then you will learn to laugh at the morons, and they are morons, that attempt to come in here and criticize you. You must remember some of these people are not only idiots, they are severely challenged mentally, they have zero critical thinking skills, and are completely out of touch with reality. Learn to recognize these mental midgets for what they are; pea brains. They are so out of touch with the vast knowledge, from which you draw, to make your amazing analysis, that it is like extreme opposite worlds clashing. What you do is extremely difficult considering the EE and their incredible arsenal of lies,deception, corruption, and law/rule breaking.

    So, I am so happy you are more thick skinned and becoming immune to their nonsense, besides, you have a whole army of supporters and defenders here to stand when you are too busy to do it yourself. There can't be enough praise from your fans for what you do. Please be of good cheer and strong heart, we are with you in complete support and appreciation. :)

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  55. Insight Said...

    Turd, these people who expect perfect forecasts are INSANE and should be ignored. I know it can hurt and be infuriating...but, speaking for myself.....You are simply the most generous man as well as being darned professional and I certainly appreciate that! In this world, this is almost impossible to find....so, I'm supposed to be disgruntled because you are not a "miracle worker" and are all knowing about the future??

    Screw it!

    -->

    Game, Set, Match.
    +1

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  56. Turd. Don't let the real turd heads distract or discourage u and your purpose. The needs and wants of the many are paramount to the needs and wants of the Clingons.
    Definition: clingon- the little remnants of t.p. that "clingon" to uranus uranus . Aka dinkleberry. :)

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  57. Personally I hope to see expectations tempered more. Saying that the upside is more than the downside with what's been happening gives hope to newbie paper traders here (regular posters or lurkers) which in turn causes them to ignore fundamental trading rules and discipline and sustain heavy losses which they could have avoided.

    We have a responsibility to one another and it is implied. Personal responsibility however supersedes. But I don't want to be accomplice in causing my brother to fall by not warning him to be careful.

    Life is all about balance. Whatever you read here, find balance in opposing ideas and thoughts elsewhere so that you can achieve balance. No one is going to be right 100% of the time and no one is going to be wrong 100% of the time.

    I wish you well my friends.

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  58. So at the week's close, PMs down, oil down, dollar up. EE mission accomplished. For awhile.

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  59. Turd - thanks for caring so much! Thanks for all your time, expertise, wit, creativity and craftmanship. We are lucky turds indeed. (can't believe I ACTUALLY said that!) Hee Sometimes, ya just gotta flush!

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  60. Turd,

    Hope I didn't come across as implying you had a lot of missed calls, because I don't think that. Most of your calls are spot on.

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  61. Turd I don't agree with everything you say but you talk a lot of sense and have the best TA I know. I look forward to your new site with relish.

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  62. Thankful for all of the contributions from this community. Art, Cali, Kliguy, and /b/
    (among others )deserve some props.
    IMHO, this site works, in part, because of the non metals related commentary. The entire economic picture is an unbelievable web. Makes for a great movie.

    Sure, there's hooliganism afoot,
    (they are still making a ton) but they are becoming less of a factor. The KITCO thing is a huge deal. The more attention to the metals, the more likely the fundamentals will rule our little world.
    The MSM stories before the massacre were so obvious. I took advantage of it and my kid got a bad ass slumber party out of the deal!

    Why are so many surprised that we are rangebound?
    It's simply the calm before the storm.
    We all know the smash is coming. Nobody knows when.
    Admit the fact that they are winning the battle, but are losing the war. Be patient, welcome it, and get paid as it unfolds. Peace everybody

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  63. Don't care what the price of PM's will be on Monday cause they're goddamn fake anyway. The only thing real and consistant is the Turd. I've said it a million times, but I'm not keeping track or score on the calls; I just like the insight and knowledge you bring to the trade. And doing more than one post per day is just a bonus.

    So thanks for all the hard work. Really looking for the new site!

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  64. Turd,

    Great job, great blog. Things will get tougher, don't ever stop. Thanks

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  65. Keep up the great work, TF!

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  66. Turd,

    I have been lurking for quite some time now, and I cannot stay quiet anymore for I must say this!,...Please, Please,... continue doing what you do, I learn a great deal from your thoughts and insight.
    I'm really looking forward to the new site!!

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  67. +1 to all the expressions of support above. I aim to learn something new everyday, and this place definitely helps fill that goal. The community is great, and even trolls are fun to have, b/c they generally bring out the best in the rest of the readership. Rock on Turd.

    On a slightly off topic (and this will go away with the new site, I hope), there are some of you guys & gals following the blog with not only real names but also full profiles/Picasa albums shared to the world. I by chance clicked into the profile of Ms. Global Writer with Southern Roots. While the children are great (I'm sure you're often asked if the girls are twins), the house looks lovely, please be careful with your privacy settings at all times online -- the last thing we need is a string of PM burglaries a la Facebook status updates announcing "I am in Hawaii for 2 weeks".

    And slightly related to that -- a (to me) novel and very creative way to hide PMs in plain sight. Can't share the source, and hope (s)he forgives me for spreading here:

    "For gold, put the gold at the bottom layer of the cat box, a layer of protective plastic sheeting, then the cat sand. If you don't have a cat, borrow some cat droppings from a neighbor that does have a cat. One cat box can hold approx 200-300 coins

    For silver, car battery casings (without the lead), the bigger the better (like a diesel truck battery). Once loaded and sealed with super glue, spray with WD40 and sprinkle with dust and scatter the batteries around your garage or yard, like a Sanford & Son look. Hiding in plain sight, easy to pick up and throw in the car when TSHTF. The casings without the lead and acid are not easy to get but look hard and you'll find them."

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  68. Turd, can we refer to this new summer period of price action Turd's Bowels or even the IBS (Irritable Bowels of Summer)? The way I see it, we entered from a high point, slid on down a ways, endured a little bubbling reflux, and now we're zig-zagging side to side, up and down, losing our initial nutritive value, but still hoping we come out the other end in one piece. Too much motion, like today, makes you feel sick a little and it all kind of stinks no matter which way we move.

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  69. @JoeKa: I'll add to your thoughts by saying that when I enter a long trade in silver, I can easily imagine seeing silver at $5 at any point. When I enter a short trade in silver (GASP!), I can easily imagine seeing silver at $100.

    While I'm long far more often than short, this imagination of mine helps me set tight stops, take small losses, lose more times than I gain, but when I gain, the VALUE of those gains easily pay for ALL of the small losses and then some.

    Being on the right side of big trades is what it's all about. Not allowing small losses to become massive losses is equally important as well.

    An opinion only.

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  70. I note that the Moon will be in Scorpio this Monday, the big day. If memory serves, that was the position that the West Coasters warned The Stones about when they were about to stage a free show at that raceway...Altamont. I guess if you screen the site entrants for weapons and avoid hiring the Angels for security, things might work out OK.

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  71. Numisgold...Thanks for the Vote of Confidence for 'ole Turd on the Kitco board!

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  72. ALCON:
    Turd is much to humble to point out that he said gold $1600 by 10JUN. Hey, we don't buy spot so who cares where it is? We buy processed coins/bullion and guess what? Eagles are $1606... Hmmm, if I were a non-humble Turd, and I am not, I would say mission accomplished-KMA!

    COL Turd

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  73. Canuks just won a hard fought game!

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  74. @Turd

    I hope you read this.

    I was watching a movie tonight and I could stop thinking about you. It really soured the enjoyment of the movie. You owe me a dollar for my redbox rental. Anyway, what occured to me is that you aren't so worried about the 1600 thing as you are burdened by the weight of having to be right all the time. I can imagine it must be an overwhelming feeling of responsibility to know that so many people depend on you in a very real way. I'm sure there are people who expect perfection from you and also people to are rooting for your failure so they will feel better about their own inadequacies (I'm not the best speller, I hope that was right).

    The hard truth is no one is perfect. No analyst can make the right call all the time. Even the best can only be right say 70% of the time. Despite your conviction about a certain call, you can't give in to the pressure to say this one is right or I'm done. We need you too much. I need you, and I don't expect you to be right all the time.

    I've been vocal about not believing in the summer doldrums this year because I believe at the end of cycles the rules change and that's where I think we are. Let's say I'm right and we fire up this summer, does that mean I think your analysis going forward is not good? No, not at all. In fact, if you blow 3 calls that just means there's 7 good ones right behind. Like I said no one gets it right all the time. That's why I've said I try not to be too dogmatic about my positions. This is one reason why I don't like being in this constant pissing contest with atlee. It makes me too emotionally invested in a particular outcome.

    Most of all, I just want you to know that while I sense that you put undue pressure on yourself, we don't think it's possible to be right 100% of the time and we don't expect it of you. Anyone who does is an unreasonable prick face.

    There is alot of vicious defending of you on this site, which I frankly don't understand. This is because I think your record stands on it's own without need for defense.

    I hope you have a relaxing weekend so you can come strong next next wek too. We all think you're a bad ass or we wouldn't read.

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  75. Hey Turd... are you planning to have a "last post party" on Sunday as a way to celebrate the ending of this blog? This would be a chance for all to post a last comment to this blog so you could keep it as a gift from us to you... aloha's

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  76. tear to my eye...
    so anything useful to add there Levelhd?

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  77. what the hell does this exactly mean re/Kitco:

    Quebec tax authorities raided the offices of one of Canada's largest gold trading and research firms, Kitco Metals Inc., probing whether the company and several others may have illegally avoided paying more than C$150 million (US$154 million) in Quebec sales taxes.

    ** Ok, so this to me is suspicious sounding government thuggery **

    Revenu Quebec hasn't pressed any charges.
    ** so is this **
    But in a statement, it said it had reason to believe that Kitco, a privately owned precious-metals trader and research firm based in Montreal, worked with several entities and individuals in a scheme involving gold-bullion and gold-scrap transactions that allowed them to inappropriately collect provincial tax credits.

    ** anyone know what the hell a provincial tax credit is? This part makes me suspicious of Kitco **

    so I am at a loss what is going on here

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  78. Bring on the new Dig Turd.

    Looking forward to it.

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  79. all I can say is this: it was a tough winter time in NY city and the metals were crashing...everybody screaming like crazy, sell, sell, the crash is here, get fiat for god's sake!!, I was panicking..under water for a month, ready to sell my physical even at lose. Turd Ferguson was one of the few (if not the only one) to stand and say:"Look, the fundamentals are the same, nothing has changed, things will even worse, so just be patient, wait and things will come out all together again"...he made the call, gold to $1600, when gold was at $1310 and falling heavily 5 month ago...and just because of that I respect Turd, he got the balls, the strength and the confidence that $1600 will be reach and that, my friends is very powerful. Now, if gold get only to $1577-78 or whatever is just secondary and I feel very sorry for all I have read on Kitco and other forums trowing trash against Turd, it is really a shame. Now, go and ask all of you why we are fucked as a society the way we are...well, here is an example why. Turd, my advice to you is this: don't be so passionate about it, don't be so emotional, even though you may be right and willing to pass your good energy on your thinking, but, unfortunately we live in a world full of envy and jealous people...otherwise, you are going to be overwhelmed with so many critics everywhere, every time. Long life to this site, long life to Turd and participants......and you GoldHamster if I see you around the city I will kick your ass, you fu...g coward.

    ReplyDelete
  80. at level hedges ....there is something strange about you .......not to be trusted ....sitting by the campfire in the backyard.....with funky clouds above me

    ReplyDelete
  81. @long john
    I'm flattered you think I'm so mysterious. I'd like to think that makes me special. The truth is I'm not really. I'm just a regular trader. I'm really just misunderstood.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Turd

    You are very much a BAD ASS !!!
    Thanks for all of the dedication, passion, wisdom and perseverance.
    If your trying to make a positive difference in this world - you are for a LOT of people, and your doing a superb job!

    Looking at the above posts I see a lot of sincere love, respect and gratitude - all of it so well deserved and earned many, many times over!

    God Bless you, your wife and your family!

    ReplyDelete
  83. I'm gonna be pushing my own mysterious debonair prognostication again.

    Next week Silver will see a spot price of $ x5.00 possibly as early as MON. After which we will see a price of $ x4.xx by late week or early the following week.

    Pls excuse me now as I go drink more EE kool-aid.

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  84. No......you are a scorpion......from the Tower of Babel .

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  85. I have a feeling that if Turd's prediction came 100% true he would've said, "Turd can make predictions, Turd can be right and wrong, but Turd isn't NostrafuckingDamus. We're having fun and more importantly, we are planning for the end of the Keynesian experiment which happens to be the center ring of the circus in this comical economy."

    Point is, even if he's right all the time, the fucking guy is grounded on Earth but with a little ego-flare, just like all of us. He relates. He's one of us! Would you rather crack a beer with Turd or some other shill?

    Turd, keep on rockin' man. Hundreds, if not thousands, are having a great time checking in and we can't wait until your new site gets rolling. Cheers!

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  86. Hey JoeKa, glad your back man.
    We missed you - hope you had a relaxing vacation!

    PS. Try the bourbon -

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  87. Heya Tes! Howz it hangin?
    The kool-aid is plenty spiked.

    Whatever happened to OJ on the rocks with a little frilly umbrella?!

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  88. I was trying to come up with a good analogy .......but failed .....turd is the wind ,he told you so from the beginning ..... you are the sail,pull those lines accordingly .....go long ,enjoy the sunshine enjoy the moonshine .......

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  89. Hi Turd, keep up the good work. I've been following your blog from the start and you have been uncannily accurate. Don't worry about the $23 miss on your ballsy $1600 by 10 June call. Nobody else had the guts to call it and come so close. Respect!

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  90. roll call !!!!!!.....I know you are out there , because I am here,.... so I will start this shigndig off.......representing the 401 , rhode island , any other new england bee-arches out there ...???

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  91. 617 right here, Long John, Beantown also in the house

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  92. Keep it up Turd, don't let anyone get to you or your analysis. Many respect and kudos to your efforts shown here.

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  93. Ive been checking
    http://www.turdferguson.com/
    regularly.
    It used to have a cryptic message below the collage, cant remember exactly what but ended up with the words ..... or has it ?

    Anyway looking forward to a new site that lets us post and separated threads that we can actually follow.

    Regarding our leader getting upset by trollers, I can see how hard it is not to bite and have big respect for those who can simply let it all flow past em without ever nibbling on the bait.

    Robo Trader on ZH comes to mind. Hey I dont necessarily agree with his thinking but he consistently says what he sees for mo mo traders and Ive never seen him bite back, no matter how vitriolic the comments. Even if he is a paid troll, he shows incredible restraint.

    Anyway good luck with the new website rollout and know that

    all your Turd rblong2us

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  94. I'm starting to find the overwhelming Turd love slightly hilarious. It's as if he's some fragile person cowering in a corner totally devastated by trollish comments and needs some support now.

    Still it's amusing yet heartening to see so many 'White Knights'.

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  95. I've got an idea...if you don't like it, you can kiss my sweet, hairy...
    ++++++++++++++++++++++

    ROFLMAO

    5 stars for that posting

    ReplyDelete
  96. I am a 978 Mass fan. out past Concord MA. I have another friend in 978 who brought me here. I would love to get together with local Mass people and have a sit down and sharing. Would be super cool.

    ReplyDelete
  97. So, from $1316, TF calls for a 21% gain. We see a 20% gain and some beyotch over at Nadlerland calls Turd a liar. That troll can kiss mine, too! Right on the red part.

    ReplyDelete
  98. WARNING: This post has nothing to do with shining up the Turd.

    Here's a little Dow Gold Ratio article I just found.

    http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/dow-gold-ratio-update.html?gmrefcode=dollarc


    Now I'm off to check out the Weekly Metals Wrap!

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  99. I like what Dan Norcini says about the positioning in Silver with the view of going up to new higher levels in the near future on the latest KWN wrap.

    Key question is from which base level will that happen?

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  100. hi all,

    im posting a video by gary wagner who is excellent at TA... he says that silver still has the potential to be in a wave 4 correction... something that lines up with the big bearish flag that i asked turd to comment on...

    anyways, here is the link to his video... its a good education piece that needs to be considered... instead of thinking that silver will go to the moon.. etc.

    http://www.thesilverforecast.com/kitco

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  101. Anyone have a GoldMoney account? Thinking of diversifying a bit more and with Dodd-Frank forcing the closure of all foreign accounts for US residents, the handwriting's on the wall.

    Assets must be kept out of the reach of our corrupt politicos or they'll be sucked into the black hole.

    Been reading the GoldMoney website and looks promising as a secure means to store some wealth for a rainy day.

    I'd appreciate any comments by those who have experience with them.

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  102. @rblong2us
    The only text turdferguson.com:
    "the last train out of any station will not be full of nice guys" I'm guessing it isn't our Turd but the quote could be another way of looking at the end of the Keynesian experiment ¿quien sabe?
    @Turd @JoeKa @Eric#1
    Maybe a "shining up the turd" thread on the new site? A place to say thanks without getting off-topic...

    ReplyDelete
  103. @SilverIsKing
    A small giant I respect likes
    http://www.bullionvault.com/

    ReplyDelete
  104. These are my personal thoughts, take them as you will, and please don't beat me up. I'm just a small fish swimming along with the tides.

    Ben said everything right this time. No QE3 means short term pain for a hopeful long term gain. They can't raise % rates, b/c US is in too much debt, it would cost us way too much.

    They want to and will keep commodities low for lower food and gas (and PM's). Good for people that are just making it by. Unfortunately, these 'people' can all be found at the mall this weekend spending the difference on iPads and cell phone covers, and getting their nails done. Not saving or protecting themselves. I digress.

    Stocks, including PM's will go down. Markets held up by QE's. FED basically stated, we'll see how the markets hold without QE, but in case it doesn't we'll do something about it.

    Real estate values down, leading down, under-employment up, unemployment checks ran out/running out, those just hanging on by a thread are raiding 401k's (see ZH article), savings gone, home equity (most people's only and biggest source of saves) gone.

    Stocks have been held up by QE's, so we're now seeing the sell off. DOW drop to 11000, 10500, or even 10000? Whatever it is until August 2nd.

    Silver/Gold will drop. Whatever it is in Mid-August....I will buy lots of silver and gold physical.

    Until then, in my paper stash,
    1) I sold my mutual funds back in May, saved about 6% so far
    2)I'm playing shorts DXD, FAZ, ZSL, etc.
    Look at the "big" news for capital requirements for banks to be either 22 or 2.5% vs previous thoughts of 3%...it helped financials for all of 30 minutes, then right back down again. Banks are in deep shit, and will continue. (FAZ)

    So when the markets loss 10, 15, 20 percent and QE3 is announced, corn, oil, wheat, silver, gold will all go up, way up. That's what we are preparing ourselves for, right?

    Again, unless you were planning to retire tomorrow and sell your silver to pay for your mortgage, rent, boat, or whatever....you should be looking forward to the silver/gold price dropping this summer. Use the extra couple hundred a month you're saving in gas and tomatoes to buy lower silver and lower gold.

    Then sit back and update your spreadsheet in August (and going forward) on how much you made when PM's skyrocket. Don't be an asshole about it though, b/c your neighbors will be struggling, and your friends who thought you were crazy will be struggling too.

    Final thought: 2002 Silver was $4oz, monster box was $2,000, Silver now $36oz, monster box $18,000.

    I spent $5K on a ski trip in 2002, that trip opportunity cost was $45,000. I would love to have $45,000 sitting in my safe right now.

    Where were you in 2002?

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  105. Turd, you seem to love yourself a bit too much, and that makes your judgement come in to question: especially when it comes to the manipulations - you don't dare give them the credit and respect they've got coming for pulling it all off the way they have (and will continue to do). Am I not correct?? Truth may be on our side but its little consolation when the lie lives bigger than life and no one of any consequence cares to kill it. It took hundreds of years for the Romans to die from within, why can't you accept a small history lesson? Besides, electronic currency will eventually stop your endless prognostications in favor of the new Truth: world gov't.

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  106. Another one for the ignore list once the new Turdville is upon us. Haters are gonna hate, don't let 'em get to you...

    Not that you need encouragement from me, but still... Keep up the good work, TF. I've learned more from you and this community than I have from 95% of my college professors (had one awesome econ prof so far, else it'd be 100%)

    Thank you for all your efforts, sir. Thank you to the residents Turdville who have added to the conversation. And FUBM, you and your army of trolls...

    ReplyDelete
  107. Professor Turd,
    Your timing may not always be dead on (but whose is???). However, your insight and humor is impeccable. Keep up the great work and I can't wait to see your new site!

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  108. Looking forward to checking out your new site Turd!
    Have you seen the CFTC's Bank Participation Data for May? JP Morgue and HSBS piled on 10 MILLION ounces of NEW silver shorts during silver's correction! (May 3rd-June 7th) If this is not the most blatent evidence of silver manipulation to date I'm not sure what is.

    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/06/jp-morgue-and-hsbs-added-2000-new.html

    ReplyDelete
  109. I genuinely appreciate the time and labor you place in this blog. Most of us know it takes hours to create an article, etc., that meets our own high expectations for look and content.

    I have learned so much from you, and you speak PM, trading, etc., in English (most of the time!). All I had to learn were some acronyms for the EE, etc.

    You have confirmed over and over what I have studied and yet struggled to believe for about two years now. The myriad of now-so-blatant corruption at the highest levels of government and banking, and the co-dependent addiction of denial of the Press to the now-so-open lies, defiance, arrogance, hate, greed, and utter disregard for the citizens who pay for ALL of it, has pushed the most-free nation EVER in history into a free-fall decline of both wealth, self-determination, and personal freedom.

    Stay honest, maintain integrity, ignore liars and character assassins, and continually proclaim the truth.

    For almost 50 years the average tax-paying, honest citizen passively allowed those who strangely hate their own Constitution and free enterprise (EVEN as they manipulate the system to enrich themselves (as hypocrites do)) at our expense. We believed their lies of change and prosperity, of the soundness of financial institutions, on and on and on.

    They have become godless people without almost any morals of honesty to serve the people instead of themselves, and have successfully taken control of almost every aspect of Education, Government, and the Press. They drove out US historical truth and patriotism, the Flag and Pledge of Allegiance now DENIED OPENLY ON VIDEO by our VERY elected officials.

    The Marxist, Socialist, even Communist belief, the most extremely well-proven failure of humanity as a cultural 'system', amazingly continues... yet like pigs to to the mire, they keep returning to it. However I now see for what it has always been, ONLY a vehicle for these few thousand who pour their very lives into obtaining power, control, and wealth. It's simple; lie, garner believe, get the vote, get control, and dictate.

    Their lying years of proclamation of fairness, freedom, etc., is the exact same lie of Hitler, Stalin, Mao, and others before them. I have less control of my life than EVER before, even to what car I drive, the clothes I wear, and the words I use in public (meaning anything now not correct and along "Party" lines).

    To FEAR your own government, to be labeled by them, hated, and told to 'get out of the way', while they simultaneously LIE to you about 'transparency', 'job creation', etc., etc., take YOUR money, and then tell YOU to SHUT UP... is utterly amazing to me. The disrespect and hate for the opinions of others, the beliefs, etc., is incredible. But YOU cannot say anything in return, oh no. Otherwise YOU are the hate-monger, etc.

    We must now have the SAME diligence and determination of these radical extremists, use similar strategies that work, but with honesty and integrity. In our case we must now REPAIR what will be the ultimate end of 50 years of tax and spend insanity, and all underlying lies and deception that has made it happen.

    All lying politicians, as well as the propaganda they now brain-wash each new generation with, must be voted out and replaced with people whose FIRST concern is the Nation's Constitution and the People of this true and real UNION.

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  110. Sitting here pondering.
    Weird to be in this economic implosion watching it happen in slow motion. Even weirder reading the International forecaster and blogs etc and knowing what will happen before it happens. It always happens as predicted.
    Only one thing that is impossible to know, without inside information, the time it will happen.
    So it´s crazy to see it happen, even crazier so many people have no idea, when it´s so easy to see.

    ReplyDelete
  111. The KWN Metals wrap today is worth a listen to as Bill Haynes talks about premiums being down a bit and also a tidbit on what he advised a couple who wanted to know how much to put into metals. I figured the % to be 40% which means I'm about 20% short!

    I am starting to panic about the market and being with an advisor with some of my mother's money. Very nervous indeed!

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  112. All the manipulation by the gov., bankers, and wall street......
    It's really very simple. They shoot us - we die. We shoot them - they die. In the end a constitutionally free market is worth dying for. Who's on your list?

    Syria is an example of what happens to the leaders that lie, cheat, steal, and enslave their citizens. From powerful President of Syria with estimated 60 billion living the rock star life to jail in about 10 seconds and now on criminal trial for murdering his people in the streets. Don't think it won't happen in Amerika. In time my friend. In time. Criminal trials for high hat "public serverts". The charge treason.
    Hung from the flag poles on the White House lawn. I can picture CNN reporting. We just have to be patient...sit down and drink a cold one. The time is coming. America will take to the streets like Syria in time. Violence will come to Amerika. Read history. Tick tock...tick tock....tick tock...

    You are a financial slave in Amerika. From birth to death your SS number tracks you. Your God given name does not matter to them. You are a number to produce for them.

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  113. I highly recommend this article: Kitco and Nadler (and its comments!) to those who, like myself, were always a bit suspicious of Kitco and who Jon Nadler truly worked for.

    Thanks for providing this - the best of all PM playgrounds online - dear Turdmeister. May the road you choose...

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

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  114. Hey CD, I was a 617 for a few years. Good times. I am a +352 now though..

    ReplyDelete
  115. Imablogger - Amen

    TradingPaper - woah I didn't know that happened in Syria, have to watch the news

    Who is this John Nadler everyone hates?

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  116. Looks like TF's new site? Cool!

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  117. Surely not a WordPress platform

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  118. what the hell TP that hasn't happened that I can see - can you point to some evidence? What am I missing Bashir is still in power.

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  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  120. @ Nick Elway
    "the last train out of any station will not be full of nice guys"
    yeah thats the text in the URL. There was an enigmatic strap line across the screen below the collage. Now gone.

    @SilverIsKing & Nick
    A small giant I respect likes
    http://www.bullionvault.com/

    I made the mistake of putting my stash with Bullionvault in Zurich, before I discovered ZH, FOFOA, Turd and so many other PM followers.

    So now I try and create arguments to justify leaving it there, rather than cashing it in, paying a chunk of capital gains tax and converting it into coins that might be gold,
    that I might be unable to sell when I really need to, cos my local coin dealer is out of everything / dead / a long way away .......
    oh and he gave his customer list to a man with a very persuasive manner before he went )-:

    So, as long as the internet holds up and Lord Rot Schield ( now part owner of Bullionvault) doesnt have a bigger claim on the deposited gold than un-allocated little ole me, everythings cool (-:

    I recently watched Chris Martenson interview Paul Tustain the major shareholder and originator of Bullionvault. He comes across as a genuine person. The body language, the blink rate and other subtle truth tests all suggest the same.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/paul-tustain-gold-signal-monetary-system-grave-danger/56181

    Fairly late in the interview, Paul casually noted that in recent months a lot of Bank Managers had opened accounts.
    Now he didnt say if they were personal accounts or on behalf of bank clients ( how did he know they were bank managers ? )
    I just felt a strong surge of confirmation that they all know whats coming and are looking to protect themselves, even those who are supposed to be wedded to the system.

    Anyway, I currently consider Bullionvault Zurich to be an acceptable balance of risks.

    I would be interested in any other opinions though .....

    rbl

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  121. ps

    on page 3 of the comments on the above Chrismartenson Link, Paul Tustain attempts to respond to some concerns regarding the risk of holding gold in their Zurich ( ViaMat) vault.
    It seems like he has tried really hard to cover all the risks and offers to discuss the operation with anyone who still has concerns.

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  122. I would not eat at any Shake Shack after seeing this

    Goldman Cuts The Line

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  123. Sorry about your end-of-June predictions, Mr. Ferguson, but you know that we just can't let that happen!

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  124. "I really, really wanted to open the new site this afternoon but I just got off the phone with my web developers and, unfortunately, there are still several kinks/bugs that need to be worked out. They've promised me, however, that we are a GO for Monday launch. Thank you for your patience."

    @ Turd: You sound like Mrs. Plata. :)

    I am all jacked up about the new site and can't wait to get on it!

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  125. Hey everyone, turdferguson.com is definitely not Turds new site, that site has been around since 2005, and if the Turd paid that much money for a piece of crap wordpress site like that I think we'd all owe it to him to string up his web developers.

    Just wanted to clear the air a little there.

    tfmetalsreport.com on the other hand was registered Dec 3rd 2010, right when TF started planning the new site.

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  126. As several have previously stated here, projects such as Turd's new site are difficult to bring in on time and often get delayed due to a variety of reasons. So while Turd has now provided Monday as the launch date, I want to remind everyone of one simple thing.

    Turd owes each and every one of us here absolutely NOTHING. So, if for some reason, the Monday date gets pushed back further, it doesn't matter because he's doing this for our benefit. I know most here appreciate what he does so I'm really writing this to the few unappreciative douche bags that seek to criticize him at every turn.

    To those that do not appreciate what he has done and continues to do, you must answer why you are reading this in the first place.

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  127. @SilverBleve,

    I looked up the WHOIS a few days back and posted that tfmetalsreport.com looks like the one. I can understand someone registering TurdFerguson.com for other reasons. There'd be no reason for anyone to register, especially back in December 2010, tfmetalsreport,com other than Turd. That was my deduction and I'm sticking to it.

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  128. Blythie in da house! This is funny shit.

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  129. ya Blythe havent you figured out no one wants you here? Fuck off!

    SilverisKing yeah I agree with you, i just wanted to clarify to slow down the rumour mill. Cant wait for the new site to go live just like everyone else.

    I have had this nagging question I have never posted before, but TF, have you made sure you are not in violation of any kind of copyright stuff using a SNL character without permission? Maybe CaLawyer could chime in. I'm sure there are loopholes and such, but I just want to look for you Turd.

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  130. Hey Turd: I think your blog is awesome also and can't wait for the new site... Thanks

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  131. Turdle GG. So much for that slow crawl up uh. When I mentioned that, I soon noticed the order book on Oanda and saw that many were running profits in XAG. I can't help but think that bear traps were set Friday and a stampede is pending next week. But more than likely until the end of this month everything will be a headline risk. I haven't made up my mind on whether i should get my cowboy hat out for this rodeo or just sit back.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Blythe said...

    Sorry about your end-of-June predictions, Mr. Ferguson, but you know that we just can't let that happen!


    Working the weekends now sweetie? Shouldn't you be on Broad St doin' a little 'gold digging' instead?

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  133. @SilverisKing

    I didn't know that Dodd-Frank was going to prohibit the ownership of foreign bank accounts by U.S. citizens. Do you have any more information on this? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  134. @beprepared,

    I have an account at Saxobank. They are closing the accounts of all US residents due to Dodd-Frank but I'm not aware of the specific provision in the bill forcing them to do this. Maybe there's some requirement that makes it cost prohibitive to continue and I haven't been able to find an ex-US bank/broker/trading house that is willing to take US clients.

    If you know of one, I'd appreciate hearing back. Thanks.

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  135. Another great hit from ZH, assuring that QE3 is right around the corner.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-

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  136. Okay, now this is getting ridiculous....NOW the IMF has been hacked?

    If I didn't know any better, sounds like they are up to some wicked shenanigans and are going to need to police the internet now.

    Do they REALLY think we are THAT schtupid???

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  137. "The Necessity of Resisting Financial Tyranny"

    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune11/financial-tyranny6-11.html

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  138. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  139. I'm getting ready to short gold next week expecting it to hit the 150DMA around 1450usd/oz during July.

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  140. Seeing a low on Monday and a rebound after that before another sell down next week.

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  141. Expect the POSX to claw up some more next week. The signs are in place for a rebound of the USD as a flight to safety (pukey, I know). Don't be surprised to see it go past 76 and even gun for 78 (or at least high 77s) on the index.

    The S&P ain't looking so good either and there is every chance of lower lows next week. All these to me put additional headwind on metals. If there is insufficient volume on the buy side, it will indeed be bear town next week and going forward for the rest of summer or til QE3 is announced.

    ReplyDelete
  142. LaMachinna said...

    Okay, now this is getting ridiculous....NOW the IMF has been hacked?

    If I didn't know any better, sounds like they are up to some wicked shenanigans and are going to need to police the internet now.

    Do they REALLY think we are THAT schtupid???


    Yes, they do think we are that stupid

    ReplyDelete
  143. Timer, the indicators also show that we are about to move up. I wonder whether we will go below 36 though. Depends on the EUR/USD IMO. Also not sure if the bank holiday in Europe will have any effect.
    The smackdown on Friday was due to the NATO - Libian related crisis and the comments made by Gates, I guess. Also some news on Greece.
    If we are to stay in the same triangle in the chart that we were in the last couple of weeks, we shouldn't get in the 35 area.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Thought O'bummer "promised" $.50 drop in gasoline by june 1st...? Oh, he must have said $.15 cents, not $.50 =/
    Did drop to $3.65/ gal. yesterday, here in New England. yay
    SO glad I had been working to reduce debt, prior to the "souring" of the economy. That was "luck" if one can call it that, not skill. Started having serious lower back problems, which led me to not want to burden my family w/ more debt. THANK GOD.
    Back problems will not leave me alone, pain sucks. BUT a positive from a negative keeps my chin up!
    We have one car payment, ( I drive old clunker and LOVE it, owes me NOTHING )
    no mortgage, no credit cards, keep bare minimum in bank...
    Had been setting up this way before becoming " enlightened" about our lovely financial system...
    Spidey Sense I guess!
    Now I have a goal, slow and steady stacking.
    Sorry for the life story, doesn't look like I will distract any one from hot and heavy trading!

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  145. A few random thoughts on a lazy Sunday morning.

    OK, so after shouting from the rooftops that I was done stacking for a while, I went ahead and bought just one more gold coin. It's sort of a more unusual one. One that I didn't have, so what the hell.

    Kind of like you silver stackers who are now digging those America the Beatuful coins. Sometimes you buy something just because you like it, not because of a cold, calculated financial decision. And there ain't nuthin wrong with that.

    Anybody pick the winner in the Belmont? Not me, that's for sure. "/

    If everybody and their brother figured everything would sell off in July and August because of the end of QE, does that mean everybody tries to sell ahead of time, like in June, and then that the bottom will come by 6/30? Rally in July? Just thinking out loud. I'm still thinking there will be plenty of twists and turns yet before Halloween.

    I'm going to go back and listen to the Hathaway interview again at KWN. For some reason that is the one for this week that stuck with me.

    Was reading my current issue of RIchard Maybury's Early Warning Report. He referenced an article from the 4/30/11 issue of The Economist that I thought was interesting. Here are Maybury's words:

    "Commodities, raw materials, whatever you choose to call them, are telling a remarkable story. Jeremy Grantham of GMO, a fund management group, has compiled an index of 33 commodities, with the prices adjusted for inflation. Between 1902 and 2002 the index fell 70%. Since 2002, it has regained all that ground."

    Have a great day everybody!

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  146. @SilverIsKing

    I have used Goldmoney. It isn't what most people here consider physical, but there are big tax exemptions in Europe if you don't take delivery, and all kept in Switzerland. Depends if you trust em or not. Their due diligence profile is a bit questionable in my opinion compared to their competitor Bullionvault, but they have other advantages.

    There's only a limited amount of silver you can buy or sell at spot with Goldmoney - the rest you have to wait for the next London fix. So in a rush for the entrances and exits, you're near the back.

    Fees are roughly between $1 and $2 per ounce. More than paper or futures.

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  147. @BBL,

    I think the ceres and earth crossings should be the big ones next week, as well a the Jupiter crossing over next weekend.

    my thoughts for silver next week

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  148. As for silver stacking at the current time, the question I would have is what is the better of the two choices – silver rounds or American Silver Eagles? I own both but I’ve by far favored the ASEs. Like many others I’ve been willing to pay the extra premium to get that “government guarantee” of the purity of the ASEs.

    The premiums on bullion coins have increased in the recent past. If in the future though, the spot price aligns to physical silver, then wouldn’t the difference in the spread premiums between rounds and ASEs narrow, making the rounds a much better buy at the current time?

    If we’re truly preparing for fiscal survival, then shouldn’t it be more about how many ounces of PMs we’re accumulating at this time as opposed to how many dollars worth we’re accumulating?

    BTW – What got me thinking about this is Gainesville Coins’ $.99 over spot sale they’re having until June 17th for certain rounds and bars. I remember not long ago someone was questioning if APMEX’s silver sale could be a signal that they knew a price drop was coming and they wanted to unload inventory. I could see that being the case if these companies were dropping their prices across the board for a particular PM, but not if they’re only dropping it for a few of their offerings related to the PM.

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  149. I've decided to stop lying to myself, I admit that I'll probably never stop stacking until I retire, another 20 years away. I keep on taking funds from my emergency FRN's and putting into physical, too easy to justify in this Crazy, Mixed up World. How do I confess this to my wife?

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  150. Dave T.

    FWIW, I lean toward the low premium stuff, precisely for the reasons you stated. # of ounces is what matters.

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  151. Always just one more, eh Eric? Hehehe...I know the feeling. Gramp, I see you're in the NE area too. I was born in 617 (near the top of Summit Hill) and that's how I explain my Bosox cap hereabouts. The cap was a gift in '04 which was a good year in Beantown. And I'm now in 607 so my local team is the B-Mets. There'll be fireworks after the game on Friday...if it's not rained out. ;-)

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

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  152. MIchael

    Yeah, I've been telling myself "OK, this is absolutely positively the last piece of shiny I'm buying for a while" since about January. I'm so full of crap, but I really mean it this time! haha :D

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  153. Looking forward to your new site!

    Your blog, with your insightful reports, has been a great resource for me. You have also encouraged me to create my own blog, which although not as good as yours, I will continue to work on and hopefully it will become useful as yours is in the near future. Eyeintheskytrading.blogspot.com

    Thanks again

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  154. Hey Eric ,
    I was thinking of bidding on a coin on the Bay. 10$ Gold Eagle. Seller has 99.7% feedback, and several thousand sales. I saw 1 negative feedback that indicated a sale of a fake coin and struggle to get funds returned.( 12 month ago ) maybe was just sour grapes?

    Ver word: HYLIO
    Yeah, a little bit... :)-~

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  155. Hey Y'all,
    Back from a week at the beach w/family and checked in on you over the week from time to time. Have to selfishly say that I was glad TF's new blog didn't get going on Friday because I didn't want to be away and miss it!

    What a week so far as the miners and spot prices in metals. That's pretty much as good a comment as I can muster 'bout that. "/

    Thought I would have the Big One Elizabeth when I got back home and checked my miners. :[

    But. My strategy remains buy and hold the miners. I do think we are headed for a liftoff in them soon enough. (or not soon enough for some) I am looking to add to my miners over the coming couple of months and be in a good position when/if that liftoff happens. I believe it will happen.

    My July SLV options are looking sad sad sad. Pathetic really. I do hope the next 5 weeks or so will be kinder to them ...OldNavy??... Where are you, sir? I need a little figurative hand-holding here. lol. ...Well, I always maintained my initial paltry options investment might go down the drain and it looks like it just might. (Have a OTM DXD call also....maybe THAT will save my bacon). I cannot however say that I regret it (options investment) for the simple fact that I got me some options experience and I absolutely learned alot and will know more the next time I set out to 'invest' in that game/arena. Education money (well?) spent.

    Sorry*I*Am*Talking*So*Much... ...Missed Y'all! :] *waving at XTY..good to see you back* ......and looking forward to new site!!

    People, remember.... helping others is the best...absolutely very best way....to be happy. :]

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  156. Congrats on the new coin Eric! ......(I knew you'd get another).. I smiled to myself when you posted about your self-imposed 'ban'. ...Cause...once a goldbug....always a goldbug.... ;)

    You can't help it. Don't fight it. Really. Just go with it. :D

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  157. Gramp
    If the listing looks ok, and the picture of the coin looks ok, I wouldn't sweat it. If you have thousands of sales, there's always going to be a crank or two in there.

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  158. Ginger
    Glad to see you back. Was starting to wonder...

    On the gold coin issue, it looks like you know me better than I know myself. I think you said it best back on April 28, when you said "Eric, You're my favorite goldbug. Gold makes you so happy. You need your gold. Never give up your gold. You wouldn't be the same person. :]"

    I saved a printscreen of that. ONe of my Fav's. thanks.

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  159. Dave T

    Thanks for the tip on Gainsville coins .99¢ sale. Was on vacation past couple of weeks when APMEX had their blowout and missed that.

    I've got a good sized pile of ASE's, but anymore I'm for the generic rounds & junk silver. When I swapped some gold for silver a few months ago at my LCS, I was told that since gold is so valuable these days, they're not really paying much over just because of the coins numismatic value (was swapping some sovereigns & half eagles).

    I figure when silver explodes the difference between a round and an eagle and junk won't be enough to justify having spent so much more on the premiums.

    BTW, this is my first post on this forum even though I've lurked for here for many months. Didn't want this blog to close out without at least ONE comment from me! Hope to contribute more to the new one when it opens.

    Thanks Turd for all you do. Every time there is a new post here I tell my wife what "The Turd" has to say today. My kids are amused by that!

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  160. Eric,
    Yeah.. LOL.. I remember that. It's true too. When you post about gold it's easy/clear to see how happy the stuff makes you. It's more than a 'preparing accordingly' thing for you ...although I'm sure THAT's no small added benefit! But..you get genuine enjoyment from the little yellow buggers. Wait..that almost didn't sound right. :D

    Keep enjoying. Keep stacking. I hope to join you someday in the goldbug arena. For now.....silver buggers all the way for me. ..Cause I'm mostly brokish! :) ...wait again.. why am I smiling about that? "/ (lol)

    ...Check back with you later.. ..on the way out the door. Beautiful day here in NC.

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  161. @ Robert LeRoy Parker

    That article is a stunner -

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-

    It occurred to me that there are similarities with the way they took down the USSR.
    They drew them into an arms race and outspent em.

    Could this be what they decided to do to the Euro ?
    This time it was a borrow n spend race for houses and chinese junk and once again, the Feds were the last man standing.

    Awesome !

    So will the US$ reign supreme or will it be time for a new world currency ?

    ... all your houses rblong2us ...

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  162. Ahh... Eric,
    I have been saying the same things to myself. patience... and resume stacking in coming months w/ traditional seasonal slump. But that is no fun!! (maybe a bit lower bid may stick on the yellow metal after getting beat up for the weekend)
    Have Good amount of fiat saved for an oppertunity... should one present itself in next few weeks.
    Ver. word: SHAMMED
    yes, i think we all are getting shammed...

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  163. Ginger...

    I was worried that we might have lost you, young lass! I must have missed where you made reference to a beach trip. Hope you had a blast.

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  164. @tranh from june 11, 11:39am:

    Spot on analysis. Fwiw I agree completely and that is how I am positioning.

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  165. I'm waiting until july to buy some since I'm in cash right now

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  166. Agreed Joeka.

    I'm expecting the USD to rally up to 76-78 range, possibly even higher. Still expecting technology stocks, emerging markets, s&p, financials and cyclicals to all get sold off.

    The plan seems to be to kill the market, strengthen the dollar and then hit us with more stimulus after a huge crash.

    As long as we can take advantage of opportunities....

    CK

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  167. @ Mudsharkbytes

    Welcome aboard, and you’re welcome for the Gainesville Coins sales tip. I’ve been spreading my purchases around lately between Provident Metals and APMEX. I haven’t purchased from Gainesville in a while but I’ll take advantage of the sale and pick up some rounds.

    @ rblong2us – I agree, the ZeroHedge article was a stunner. I’m sure we won’t be reading about it in the MSM. Regarding the similarities to the arms race though. At least then we were spending the money at home. This time we’re basically just giving it to Europe. Did we ever get re-paid all the debts owed to us from the European countries after WWI & WWII?

    To everyone out there – Anyone who is interested in reading gold related novels, I was fascinated by the book Gold Warriors, by Sterling and Peggy Seagrave. The subtitle of the book is “America’s Secret Recovery of Yamashita’s Gold”. Imagine underground bunkers the size of a football field filled with looted gold. Conspiracy theory or truth. That is the question.

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  168. Remember the good old days when we used to sit here on Sunday afternoons and think OH BOY, metals start trading in 10 minutes!! Woo Hoo!!!

    Nowdays it's more like, OH CRAP, metals start trading in 10 friggin minutes. What new doom will be visited upon us now?? :(

    Kinda funny when you think about it.

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  169. @All

    Guess who will be sending thank you cards to those who beat the crap out of the miners recently?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-12/glencore-may-make-12-billion-pounds-bid-for-enrc-times-reports.html

    Phantom

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  170. Thats the tone they want to set though isn't it Eric?

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  171. I'm expecting the USD to rally up to 76-78 range, possibly even higher. Still expecting technology stocks, emerging markets, s&p, financials and cyclicals to all get sold off.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    How do you play all of these. Are there ETF for all of them. SP500 I can see. Also I thought emerging markets were foreign stocks in emerging countries. I am here to learn.

    I also have to find out how the FOREX works. lets say you buy gold on forex. do you get a 100 ounce contract with margin or what is the purchase and margin etc. I am just guessing there has to be some kind of difference from COMEX.

    Can you buy on the Comex and sell on the Forex later in the middle of the night to cover the comex contract. lots of practical details I dont know yet.

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  172. devil's advocate...
    maybe the prices of PMs are being held down to allow time for those who can/know to accumulate...

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  173. Gramp

    That kinda was my point. Maybe too subtle though. Thanks for just laying it out there clearly. :D

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  174. Kinda funny when you think about it.

    +++++++++++++

    You got me laughing hard.

    Unfortunately I missed the good old days. I did not get here until the party crashed to the bottom. I think that was my first day. maybe the day before the bottom.

    I hope to get ready to open an account before the market starts up. but I have more to learn.

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  175. yes i may be bit slow... :) but no, just bored. carrying the conversation
    Ver word: SQSIZM
    another i'll leave alone...

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  176. Greetings all =]

    'oh boy here we go!'

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  177. I shorted the Nasdaq, Dow (mini) and S&P (mini)

    Minis because the full contracts would not trade for some reason...

    So here is for a bear market woo hoo!

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  178. Good Sunday all. Here's to getting paid this week.

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  179. How are people making trades right now. do they use the Globex or Forex or what. Can you buy on the hong kong exchange and sell on the comex later etc.

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  180. The markets need maybe 15% corrections. Thats
    an odd thing to say, but thats the necessary
    bloodletting mechanism that gives the whole thing any vitality, contrived or otherwise. Otherwise it'll just grind to a stationary halt. Given Western govt's low threshold of pain, and a lack of desire to place renewed emphasis on institutional weakness, my guess is that this waiting game will be over
    sooner than later. Meanwhile, current PM's investment participation amounts to a spell of shooting where the rabbit was. Never mind, buuny wont be gone for long.....

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  181. I shorted the Nasdaq, Dow (mini) and S&P (mini)

    Minis because the full contracts would not trade for some reason...
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Can you do this now. or did you do it back on friday during regular hours. I am trying to find out how to trade stuff.

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  182. So, tomorrow is Martin Armstrong's big low in the cycle(s) -- June 13... I wonder if we're in for something? I have an aching premonition... but then do I most days! Lol! WTF knows!? Perhaps he was inadvertently forecasting the new tf blog site

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  183. @ Dave T

    Why are you buying from APMEX or Provident Metals, when it's cheaper to buy from Lear Capital? You'll even get free shipping from Lear Capital with Code:8B74A

    Currently, for ASE's
    APMEX: $ 41.66 to 40.66 with higher volume
    Provident Capital: $41.70
    Lear Capital: $39.98 (any qty), you could even buy 1 coin for you like.

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  184. sockeye I did it now - not really sure how it works but my guess is even with the markets closed people can take a swag at what they might open at

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  185. SwiftboatVet!
    Hey there.. ..and thank you!.. Had a really great time on our trip and just wish we could live at the coast. Gets my thinking right just observing all God's beauty in that big old ocean. So serene ..so peaceful ..you could almost forget all your troubles, you know? :]

    .....Not loving the open for the metals tonight. "/ ...Oh well... it's gotta turn some time ..and in some ways I don't even want it to and yet in other ways for other reasons.. I do! I guess I'm about as conflicted as these crazy markets.

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  186. @sockeye, kurt

    If you trade futures, you can trade all the time; with the following exceptions: Arizona Time (I hope you can translate) M-F 2:15-3:00, Friday closes at 2:15 and opens Sunday at 3:00PM.

    By the way, we don't change with daylight savings time so you have to adjust by 1 hour when it switches.

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  187. I know that alot of people got spanked hard and lost many FRNs last month but.....the markets weren't created for traders to make money. They were created to separate traders from their money. Remember, volity is easy for the Masters to play because they create it. Eventually the upward trend will begin again. Untill then there is no subitute for calm assurance. Untill this Fed Kabuki Dance they call QEx gets settled there will be no fun for PMs bugs.

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  188. @Rick
    I agree and disagree. There will be some paying and it won't be waiting til August 1st.

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  189. COMMUNITY GARDEN UPDATE:

    I'll post this here since it's a weekend thread even though technically some markets have opened back up. Thank you for indulging me this as I am SUPER SUPER excited about this project. We are preparing! Our community does not realize what is coming as most of yours don't realize. We literally have so much food growing out in this field. We ARE LOOKING FOR PEOPLE TO GIVE IT AWAY TO!.. I'm betting as times get tougher we will not have any trouble in finding them. Right now though if any of you know of any families that could benefit ...please steer me to them.

    Here is a link:
    http://www.fairviewchurch.org/content.cfm?id=2105
    If you go mid-way down the page you can see a small video that someone put together that shows some of my fellow gardeners & friends as we planted potatoes. This was back in April. We are planning a potatoe harvest day on July 9th and boy will we have potatoes to give away as the field is full. We also are starting to see so many squash, tomatoes, etc that we have to give away. I hope I will have an updated video to show you soon so that you can see just how much food is now growing in that once barren field.

    This has been truly an eyeopener for me. I see how one small community can make a difference when folks will come together. I hope this blesses someone out there who watches.

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  190. Sockeye, regarding how to play it.


    I've been buying SPY put options. QQQ( technology) puts. XLF (financials) EEM (emerging markets) and XRT (retail/cyclicals)

    DX futures for the dollar. Can possibly buy calls for UUP.


    Also, to anyone out there following the bonds/ treasury market.... I see Jim rogers has just started shorting them on Friday morning.

    With QE2 ending (I'm sure they'll get printing after the crash in a few months maximum) ... the dollar rallying a bit... Jim rogers being short technology stocks, emerging markets, one big US bank.. and now treasuries.

    Anyone else out there think now's a good time to short treasuries? And why right now?

    It has to be because of QE2 ending and the fed being buyer of 70% of T bills. Now they're not gonna be buying so clearly Treasury rally has to get hit a bit.

    All I know is I've been waiting for months to hear that Jimmy is finally shorting bonds.

    CK

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  191. I'm just wondering, am I the only one who thinks shorting stocks and commodities based on the end of QE2 is too obvious and won't work? Is there anyone else who thinks the metals are going to fire soon?

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  192. At the risk of being completely redundent, naive, fear mongering, and incorrect b/c predicting specific time-based events is very difficult without the playbook...

    But..

    Something game-changing feels like it is on the brink of happeniing (to get people off the real problems).

    The one that I am lookign at heavily is a possibly threat to the free internet (since I think it is the achille's heal to TPTB if used correctly)....

    Check out the fresh news a day after the Builderberg meeting where the following people met:

    1) Alexander, Keith B., Commander, USCYBERCOM; Director, National Security Agency
    2) Bezos, Jeff, Founder and CEO, Amazon.com
    3) Hoffman, Reid, Co-founder and Executive Chairman, LinkedIn
    4) Hughes, Chris R., Co-founder, Facebook
    5) Mundie, Craig J., Chief Research and Strategy Officer, Microsoft Corporation
    6) Schmidt, Eric, Executive Chairman, Google Inc.

    Major Cyberscurity attack calling for regulation of internet (pushing copyright to censor?)
    Recent Headline (6/11)--> "IMF Massive CyberSecurity Attack"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13740591

    No coincidence this attack happens at the IMF, where the international bankers are in firm control...

    How do you get people on your side? Sabatoge/Attack your own creation in a false flag situation within a controlled environment and then push regulation as a conssequence to protect/demonize the target....
    (Hitler bombed the Reichstag and blamed it on the Jews...)

    --

    However, all of this theorizing has left me searching a lot for what is real. And what I can tell you all is that I feel that there is something going on here that we truly do not understnad. I am not talking about anything related to all this man-made financial drama, but a spiritual awakening of man for the first time in his dormant thousands of years....

    There is a price to be paid for this virtue that will come (the suffering from the economic prison humanity allowed to be created for it), but something for the history books is coming in our lifetime.

    Settle yourself, this is the calm before the storm, believe it or not...

    I wish all of you peace within yourselves as we enter a new era for man.

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