Thursday, June 9, 2011

Jim Rogers on GB

So I'm working out this afternoon and I look up to see Jim Rogers giving a lengthy interview to Glenn Beck. My dear reader, I don't know what you think of Glenn beck and, frankly, I don't really care. However, you should take the time to watch this interview. Rogers is usually interviewed only on the financial networks. There, the questions are often the same and his responses, though genuine, frequently lack candor. In the environment of the Glenn Beck studio and given the time to expand on his beliefs, Rogers shares some opinions that fit right in with our stated mission here. Below is a link to the first segment of the interview. I highly encourage you to go program your DVR to record the replay of the program when it airs again tonight at 2:00 a.m. EDT.
http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/glenn-beck/index.html#/v/985583134001/beck-can-inflation-be-controlled/?playlist_id=86917

In the metals, gold is quiet but silver looks firmly entrenched above 37.50 and ready to go tackle tough resistance at 38.50-38.85.
If you're wondering...Yes, there's still time for the "roadmap" I gave you three weeks ago to play out.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html
Remember, our goals are 1560-1580 in gold and 42-43 in silver before the end of June. IF silver can rally tomorrow and finish the week in the vicinity of 38.50, it will be primed to go attack 39.50 next week. It will then pound away on 39.50 and 40 while buying pressure builds as we approach "first notice day". After finally breaking through, we could get a quick burst to 42-43 very easily.

That's it for today.
Turd must rest as tomorrow is a very BIG DAY, not just in the PMs but in all of TurdLand.
See you in the morning. TF

206 comments:

  1. strategies for next week & the big crash anyone?

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  2. crash in equities, not necessarily metals.

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  3. "Turd must rest as tomorrow is a very BIG DAY, not just in the PMs but in all of TurdLand."

    New site launching tomorrow!?

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  4. can't wait for new site Turd, have a good night

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  5. Thanks Turd.

    If I can get up enough courage I might buy silver here and hope to see green in the morning :)

    Volume looks very light though. Always good reasons to talk myself out of it, lol.

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  6. Turd can't wait - you ROCK!

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  7. oil looking good - well called, Turd

    POSX did indeed have trouble at 73.30 to 74.40 - well called, Turd

    USD again on the verge of falling through 80 vs JPY. When do TPTB again sell JPY, buy USD? (It
    helps Japan and it helps keep POSX from falling, so surely it will happen again?)

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  8. kliguy38 said...
    "We will always have fiat and we will always have a fractional reserve system to steal your money. If gold is the standard then they WILL leverage it and destroy over time whatever fiat it underlies."

    While I enjoy immensely your superb analysis and commentary most of the time, I beg to differ with the above comments.

    The fundamental issue here is power. Money is power and the kind of power that can and has purchased political power. If you want to defeat the bankers, then a free people must come en masse to understand that any form of concentrated power is inimical to the interest that free people anywhere and has been at every point in mankind's history. This is the axiom, premise, or foundational prerequisite to a just political and monetary system. The idea is to keep the power spread amongst the people, broken into the smallest units possible, whether it be monetary, political, or the power of knowledge. It has always been the concentration of power that has led to the dissolution, destruction, and deterioration of all civilizations; their rise and fall. Until mankind grasp this concept on a broad scale we will never defeat the bankers, the elites, or their correlative political henchmen. So when forming a government, the people must make as their first principal the absolute necessity of preventing the concentration of any kind of power and/or monopolies of any kind or form.

    When anything is legally permitted to act or function as money, as is every individuals contractual right, you have made it virtually impossible for any kind of monopoly or concentration of power. Under such circumstances, then almost anything can act as money, the only caveat being that the contractual fiduciary relationship be honest and involve no fraud or deceit. Formally and legally in such a system you might have competing forms of money in the form of any kind of metal that has value. Gold, silver, platinum, copper, nickel, whatever could be used as money. Also, warehouse receipts,coupons, tokens, bills of credit, all have been used as money in the past. So, the simple principle is as in the division of labor, let there be a free division of monetary power in whatever form people may contractually care to establish. If people have control of their political system they can easily outlaw any form of fractional reserve systems, such as the Comex, SLV, The FED, Gld, or any form of hidden secretive non transparent market such as derivatives. The key is knowledge the ultimate form of power, and that power being fully divested with every member of a body politic. We can form such a society now that we have the internet.

    Remember for five thousands years both GOLD and SILVER have been the most preferred form of money. Both have been debauched when the power has been concentrated in the hands of a few, as in the Caesars of the Roman Empire.

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  9. Thanks Turd, Anyone know where we can get the full interview w/ Jimmy?

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  10. Cookie.. watch technology, emerging markets , s & p.

    Hoping for them to move upward for a few days, then going to get some put options rolling on SPY/QQQ/EEM

    Might short a bank or two as well.

    BAC or JPM

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  11. Turd, the Rogers piece was good and so was the next one. Beck was pretty funny about Mr. Obama's War No. 4: the ramped up "covert action" in Yemen.

    Dude makes some very funny faces. Beck is usually a rip to watch. Whether one agrees with him or not is a seperate issue.

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  12. Kurt,

    Not trying to be cocky here but I can pick any FIAT system apart with my toes regardless if there's a gold element in it or not if I have time to write long posts.

    FIAT is ISO-9000 certified fraud. That simple. Adding a "gold reference point" to it is not gonna help for too many good reasons that I wish to have time to explain in one short post.

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  13. argue on his site if you wish i have found such arguments unconvincing - gold acts as the store of value and money. fiat is just that - some paper coupons used locally for buying stuff because it is easier than carrying gold. Physical (not paper) Gold will be the only standard. Fiat can/will be ephemeral as it always is.

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  14. I know this is off topic but.... Friends dont let friends vote for Rick Perry! http://www.domasjefferson.com/news/rick-perry-for-2012-president-bilderberg-will-make-it-so

    Please check out my site and share with others!

    Thanks,

    -Domas Jefferson

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  15. "Rogers is usually interviewed only on the financial networks. There, the questions are often the same and his responses, though genuine, frequently lack candor."

    Hi Turd, I follow Rogers closely and I'm curious about your statement that his responses lack candor. I take that to mean he is less than honest and open. Say it ain't so! :)

    Thanks for the great site, I'm sending you some fiat!

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  16. Kurt,

    The fundamental sin of FIAT is it's un-earned money coming from thin air. Once people who don't earn their money (translate bankers, politicians and their cronies) could use their privileges to somehow pop FIAT outta thin air to steal from those that do then this system is doomed to fail.

    What use is a reference point in that regard really? It's like, say, you and I are neighbors. You work hard to run a chicken farm while I'm just lazy and steal from your farm. Now that creates a problem between you and I

    I then propose a theft reference-meter as the solution that works like this: In future when I steal from your farm I'll leave the stats on the meter. Who knows, maybe if that # goes too high I might be embarrassed enough that I'd stop to give you a break.

    Do you like it as the solution? Or would you rather suggest, "How about you just f***ing stop stealing from me"?

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  17. @Rui

    ROF L M A O - could u grab me a chicken too while your over there?

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  18. Kurt, just got back and read through last post. Noticed you were short silver over MayDay Massacre weekend. Good trade!

    Must have been a helluva Sunday evening...

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  19. No I was not short silver over that time - must have looked at the stats wrong I have only been long silver.

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  20. Jim Rogers knows exactly what's going on and makes it like Bernanke doesn't know what he's doing. Jim is there to give us half-truths.

    Everything that he says that is going to happen, usually does and will. He's a major, major insider that I follow as close as possible. I don't have television service, because TV is pure poison and warfare on the mind, but if i did I'd certainly be watching it everytime Jim is on.

    Bottom line, he knows history. He knows at a time like this in history, there's no way in hell the fed chairman of the US doesn't know what he's doing. It's all about self interest. Serving the big agenda. "The Big Idea" Bush Sr. talked about.

    The hell Jimmy talks about is definitely coming. Like TF says, prepare accordingly.


    Stack those metals. Get into agriculture.

    CK

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  21. 1538 may also be a spot for the shake and go to bottom. This would be a second retest of the decending flag line that was tested today at 1541.10 and continues to move down. It would be interesting if this coincided with a test of the neckline at just under 74 on the dollar index (currently at 74.09). It's odd that they are moving together but I like it because I think the Almighty Dollar is going higher (well for a couple days anyway).

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  22. No - it is coupons used to track trades as I buy groceries and you make widgets - and if I think someone is stealing coupons I don't use them. Savings goes to gold. Interest rates keep the coupons in line. Risk and interest act properly in the free market. Account balances between nations (areas that use different coupons) are exchanged with physical gold (like they used to be). Some companies can use other forms like the bank exchange notes(i forget what these are called they used them back before WW I successfully). The key is there is no MONOPOLY Fiat - that is the problem - if there is free competition it doesn't matter what people use.

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  23. actually LH I have noticed 1538 seems to mean something as I have bough a couple times at that level gold has some support there. I dont think the dollar is going higher though - I think it did its anemic best for a time.

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  24. @kurt
    You may be right about the dollar. Betting on a rise in that garbage is not an odds on bet. It's like betting on the Detrtoit Lions no matter the year or who they are playing. Barry Sanders is the best running back of all time by the way. However, I do think it gets 74.50 maybe the 50day MA before it fails.

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  25. http://www.infowars.com/breaking-secret-bilderberg-agenda-leaked-by-mole/

    ....

    In addition to worrying about Congress waking up to the Libyan scam, the global elite is also concerned about a diverse liberty movement that has grown exponentially with the help of an open and free internet.

    In response, the pocketed pawns in Congress have introduced a raft of bills over the last few months designed to take down the internet and blunt its impact as a medium for alternative news and information.

    On April 1, 2009, the Senate introduced two bills, endangering a free and open internet: S. 773: Cybersecurity Act of 2009 and S. 778 to establish a White House cybersecurity czar.

    In addition, on September 20, 2010, S. 3804: Combating Online Infringement and Counterfeits Act (COICA) was introduced.

    Early last month, an especially ominous bill was introduced in the Senate. Entitled Preventing Real Online Threats to Economic Creativity and Theft of Intellectual Property Act of 2011, PROTECT IP for short, this legislation would use copyright infringement as a smoke screen to take down web domains and institute rolling censorship.

    On the international front, the European Commission gave a nod toward implementing the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), a draconian measure that will subvert national sovereignty, trash Net Neutrality, consumer privacy, and civil liberties. In the United States, the corporate media has virtually ignored ACTA, but then key players in the Mockingbird media are often Bilderberg attendees and privy to aspects of the agenda.

    The above represent a small sampling of legislation and treaties that will be used to shut down the opposition under the cover of protecting copyright and preventing terrorism.

    Hyperventilating over exaggerated threats of cybersecurity, Senator Jay Rockefeller mused during a congressional meeting on cyber crime and terrorism in 2009: “It really almost makes you ask the question would it have been better if we had never invented the internet.”

    The globalists are not opposed to the internet, especially as a corporatized money-making instrument. They are, however, opposed to an open, free, and unregulated by government internet where alternative media opposed to their globalist devices are allowed to thrive.

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  26. Some links to the (hopefully) full interview w/ Jim Rogers on GB show. Have not yet had a chance to watch thru whole thing -- it may also get taken down soon by Fox lawyers -- get it while it's hot if you're interested:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I1Hbow8d_Q

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8P4rtRnTzQ

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  27. Bah, Jim is much more interesting to watch (even though he says the same things over and over and over as though someone that should gives a shit is taking notes and cares about fixing the problems) when he's on with those RT babes. Shazam!

    I've mentioned this guy before, but if you're not following BrotherJonF on YT, you really should. He lays everything out there, big picture style but isn't so cocky as to start waving his crystal ball around like so many bloggers or TY-types seem absolutely addicted to. Quite the breath of fresh air. He also has completely disseminated the silver rant/post from a few weeks ago on FOFOA's blog...which, if you read, is totally twisted just like everything FOFOA writes.

    I don't know about you guys, but I don't trust anyone anymore. Sure, there are creators of truly organic and original slices of wisdom, but they are few and far in between, and for the most part, each has their own agenda and seems to be competing with everyone else on who's gonna make the big call on the markets. Fuck them all! Think for yourself, question authority.

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  28. Here's the full link list for the GB show 6/9/11:

    Part 1
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIYw1KULkhg

    Part 2
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7I1Hbow8d_Q

    Part 3
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8P4rtRnTzQ

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  29. @ Kurt

    "if I think someone is stealing coupons I don't use them. "

    Uh no. Not according to what FOA planned for you in his FreeGold theory.

    "The key is there is no MONOPOLY Fiat"

    Again that's not bankers have in their mind. How else do they profit if you are playing their FIAT game? They want you to use FIAT so much they'd suggest tweaking the debt settlement rule. Read FOA's exact quotes below:

    FOA: "changing international law such that no form of debt can force its payment in gold! This opens a one way street for gold and a two way street in fiat currencies. No one will lend gold because they cannot force its return in the courts, thereby making gold a physical only international currency. Yet, on the other hand, we all must borrow in this modern world and currencies will be the only avenue for this. Creating a demand (and added value) for them [fiat currencies] in addition to general use demand."

    I can assure you anyone believing "we all must borrow" is not someone you'd seek sound economic advice from.

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  30. silver dropped to 37.5 so I bought it - but was that a good move is now the question

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  31. @ kasscoos89
    It's funny how Jim claims "no one can make any money in farming" as the reason why people no longer go into farming -- without ever mentioning the agribusiness oligarchy and system of government subsidization (globally, not just in the US). I'm tempted to agree with you in that he is here to give a controlled, half-truth message -- but am further dismayed by the element of wanting to instill fear, uncertainty and doubt WITHOUT really making a serious attempt at proposing a solution.

    It's great that you have a heartfelt concern about all of this Jim -- but you're sitting pretty in Singapore as a very wealthy man. I don't begrudge you your success (though wonder at what price to others it was achieved), but surely there would be more you could do to help the common folk prepare than the sound bites presented here.

    But hey, at least he IS making an attempt at speaking some modicum of plain truth, which is a lot more than can be said for the vast majority of people in his status/position/social rank/whatever you want to call it.

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  32. Gold and silver nosediving..

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  33. Silver is resilient, bouncing back now. Didn't stay below 37.50 for long. Let's see if this show of strength can continue.

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  34. TF,
    Thanks for all of the effort.
    Things moving pretty fast, eh?
    Best luck to all Canucks. Coming home.
    Western conference rocks.
    My guys still have the cup for another week.

    Brotherjohn has some good currency stuff.
    Peace everybody.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF

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  35. Some analysis from acadamia. Delong on the Hicksian argument:

    Let me give you the Hicksian argument about what happens in a financial crisis--a sudden flight to safety that greatly raises interest rate spreads, and as a result diminishes firms' desires to sell bonds to raise capital for expansion and at the same time leads individuals to wish to save more and spend less on consumer goods as they, too, try to hunker down.

    In Hicks's model, the immediate consequence is an excess demand for (safe) bonds in the hands of investment banks: bond prices rise, and interest rates falls. As interest rates fall, (a) firms see that they can get capital on more attractive terms adn so seek to issue more bonds, and (b) households see the interest rate they can get on their savings fall, and so lose some of their desire to save. The market heads toward equilibrium. But as the market heads toward equilibrium, something else happens as well: the fall in interest rates and the rise in savings is accompanied by a greater desire on the part of households and businesses to hold more of their wealth safely--in pure cash. And so the speed with which cash turns over in the economy, the velocity of money, falls. And as the velocity of money falls, total spending falls, and workers are fired, and as workers are fired and lose their incomes their saving goes from positive to negative.

    Thus the process of return to equilibrium takes two forms:

    interest rates fall, boosting investment and curbing savings.
    spending and thus employment and production fall, further curbing savings.
    In normal times, the correct policy response is for the Federal Reserve to inject more money into the economy: through open-market operations it should buy bonds for cash, thus increasing the amount of cash so that even at the lower velocity we still have the same volume of spending, and thus transform the adjustment process from a fall in interest rates, spending, employment, and production to a fall in interest rates alone.

    A little thought, however, will lead us to the conclusion that such open-market operations may fail. In them, the Federal Reserve is buying bonds, shrinking the supply of bonds out there--and thus pushing up their price and pushing down interest rates. For each amount that the Federal Reserve expands the money stock, therefore, it puts downward pressure on interest rates and thus on monetary velocity. In the limit where interest rates are so low that people don't really see a difference between cash and short-term government bonds like Treasury bills, open-market operations have no effect because they simply swap one zero-yielding government asset for another.

    It is in this situation that we want a government deficit--the government to print and issue the safe bonds that private investors really want to hold. As these bonds hit the market, people who otherwise would have socked their money away in cash--thus diminishing monetary velocity and slowing spending--buy the bonds instead. A large and timely government deficit thus short-circuits the adjustment mechanism, and avoids the collapse in monetary velocity that was the source of all the trouble. And as long as output is depressed--as long as monetary velocity is low and there is slack in the economy--printing more and more bonds will have next to no effect increasing interest rates.

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  36. Unfortunately I found the Jim Rogers interview with Beck to be basically uninformative and disappointing, watched the entire hour...nothing I or any other turdite doesn't already know...sorry.

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  37. @CD

    I don't think Jim Rogers is trying to instill fear, uncertainty and doubt. Jim believes that the market will always balance itself out. He's extremely bullish on farming and agriculture. His solution is to become a farmer.

    Jim Rogers: Revenge of the Farmers

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  38. More from academia:

     Deficit spending could put the unemployed to work — but it might hurt the interests of existing bondholders. More aggressive action by the Fed could help boost us out of this slump ... but deflation, not inflation, serves the interests of creditors. And, of course, there’s fierce opposition to anything smacking of debt relief.
    Who are these creditors I’m talking about? ... The ... only real beneficiaries of Pain Caucus policies (aside from the Chinese government) are the rentiers: bankers and wealthy individuals with lots of bonds in their portfolios.

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  39. @Devise -- I concede your point, mine was made only based on the ~30 mins of his appearance on the GB show, and the context of that show.

    Also, going into farming without hundreds of millions of capital and a large-scale operation is difficult, though not entirely due only to the reasons he points out on the program.

    At any rate, like I said he is at least raising awareness of issues most have no conception of, and for that I give him credit.

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  40. So why is silver being sold down like this now?

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  41. USDX up, S&P futures down, gold down, silver down about 3x gold. Not unusual action, so doesn't seem silver-specific.

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  42. Today was a bounce from an oversold condition but look for it to be very short lived. Bought some SMN Oct calls today as I expect the Fed to do nothing for a while and the liquidity crunch to affect everything. QE will happen but not for a while. In the meantime, as people realize that QE isn't imminent and liquidity dries up, watch how everything gets sold, including metals. This is simple math and unless the Fed steps in soon, there's no other way. Be careful out there.

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  43. Zero Hedge has a great article on the current condition of the credit market. I think it is a must read, in as much as any credit market implosion will affect the dollar and consequently PMs.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/credit-verge-oversaturation-perfect-storm-implosion

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  44. Basically, QE2 was a failure, so it will be repeated.

    The QE2 provided demand for USTreasury auctions, when most foreign creditors went on a buyer's strike. So QE will be repeated.

    The housing market has resumed its downward path, with frightening declines to the bank balance sheets. So QE will be repeated.

    The big US banks remain insolvent, loaded down by a mountain of one million REO homes in inventory. Buyers of mortgage bonds have disappeared. So QE will be repeated.

    The USGovt deficit picture is a full blown nightmare. Rather than see market mechanisms kick into gear, with higher interest rates imposed, the leaders will continue on the hyper monetary inflation path. So QE will be repeated.

    Talk of the risk trade counter to the USDollar ending is nonsense. Wiemar has met Wall Street, the syndicate handlers of the USGovt and US security agencies. The Printing Pre$$ with US nameplate cannot be stopped. So QE will be repeated

    The Gold & Silver prices will move up hard, as soon as the light bulb goes on that QE3 is imminent without interruption.

    One must be a total moron not to anticipate its immediate installation. To decide not to continue QE would force failures upon major US banks.
    The USFed is all bluff with no good cards in their poker hand. They will wait for stocks to be a little cheaper and both sides of the USCongress to beg for QE3.
    Jim Willie CB 8 June 2011
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie060811.html

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  45. I met Jim Rogers at the New Orleans Investment Conference in 2003.

    He's tiny; he must be barely five feet tall.

    The other thing I remember is asking him about something he said about Gibraltar in one of his books (either Investment Biker or Adventure Capitalist). He reiterated to me that he thought if given the choice the people of Gibraltar would vote for Spanish rule rather than British.

    That's as much proof as you need not to see someone like Jim Rogers as omniscient. The people of Gibraltar regularly vote about 98% in favour of British rule over Spanish.

    Ps my exchange with Christine Lagarde on Twitter yesterday made the Daily Telegraph!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8566871/Christine-Lagarde-takes-on-Twitter-with-a-wink.html

    Fwiw, I doubt the DAS thing was necessarily a setup, but it does seem weird that his Egyptian ally was arrested for the exact same offence about a week later.

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  46. Today might be a good day to crash the stock market, on "China slowdown fears". I can see the CNBS headlines now..

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  47. Morning everyone...

    @e736... I'm trying to stay positive today :)!

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  48. First Excuse me for my disastrous English
    I follow your blog a month ago with big interest and enthusiasm.
    Congratulations.
    It is magnificent and spectacularly successful
    Your dialectic is very entertaining also.
    I want to thank you share with us your previsones
    I regret sincerely that you receive unjust aggression comments from a few.
    I have got Randgold Resourses Limited but It do not just rebound.
    Would you give me your opinion if you know this mining

    Very grateful.

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  49. Staying positive is the only way to be NCOT.

    When does JoeKa's bloody vacation end? I miss his overnight commentary and good humour (that's humor for the North American readers).

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  50. @e73..

    you saying I'm not funny enough for you?!

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  51. Not at all NCOT, but you and I work the same shift. JoeKa is commenting while we are sleeping.

    Poor Turdle can't man the entire shift alone. It's just not fair!

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  52. Sold my small gold a few minutes ago (bought about 10 hrs ago). Cleared barely green, looked ok last night but kinda peaked this morning. I'll wait for the am dip -1338ish?- and if it's tasty enough re-buy. Silver holding up nicely around 37.5. That area may be new support when we come back down from wherever this move up peaks (39-43??) vs Turd's older prediction of 35. But who really knows, right?

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  53. @Dr Durden

    I couldn't agree more on the BrotherJonF recommendation. I also agree that it is hard to trust anyone's commentary because of their bias and motives.

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  54. @Pailin..

    very rarely will I correct your posts, however, it's not "But who really knows,right?"

    its

    WTFK...

    I thank you.

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  55. @NCOT
    :)
    1hr silver chart looks like waterfalls under 35.25, so something to think about. Maybe a stop placement if you prefer 37s to 36s, with a mind to load up more when the volume (down) seems to be exhausted? That would be a day trade though and assumes today isn't just a raw sell-off all around.
    My gold sell turns out to be prescient, but only by a few bucks so far. We'll see what the day brings.

    Thinking carefully if today is a good day to do anything, not crazy about holding long through weekend and/or taking loss at Fri close. Fog everywhere :)

    Nice run up for gold and silver the last week or two. These things do turnaround from time to time..it's the "when" that's vexes us traders.

    @NCOT
    Don't piss around too much - grab a few rounds on a regular basis ala dollar (pound!) cost averaging. Skip a few beers every weekend if that helps pay for the decision. Paper is paper, and by design, it's a long-term fail for the common man.

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  56. Thought this was interesting...

    jsmineset.com: Saudis have out-smarted everyone

    Excerp:

    "The Saudis have out-smarted everyone. This ploy was sheer brilliance on their part and we stand back and applaud them for what they’ve been able to pull off. Oil prices sky-rocketed and will head higher still and the Saudis look not only blameless, they look like the good guys in the story. You have to stand back in awe and admire the sheer brilliance of the chess move. Check and check mate! Oh, and prices are heading materially higher even from here."

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  57. @Pailin, I hear ya...

    If we can hit high 37's today, I'll be mostly out. I'm not worried about the weekend more don't need the stress. Got my belated birthday drinks tomorrow so I'd rather have a clear head to enjoy it!

    Its been over a week since I've been green. and I'm close now..so I'm hoping to get out with minimal damage!

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  58. @Devise.. have you seen WTI right now?

    down a $1 from last night!

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  59. POSX and WTI both bear close watching today, I do not like metals moving with dollar. That's a trade that is temporary and will break down, but which way? Long term, we already know, but short term? Again, this tends to be dollar season not metal season. At least for some weeks yet to go.

    And oil. TPTB-US have a lot of ammo to knock the price back if the sheeple whining gets to be too much. Margin increases, reduce federal gas tax (unlikely though!), more drilling, "miracle" discovery announcements (known for yrs but kept secret, like OBL body) and many more. Silver seems really tied to oil right now, so if THEY want oil at 95-80 for PR reasons, then it will happen and pull silver down with. Gold too, but muted effect and gold would bounce back first. Oil knockback would be short term, but would do more silver damage as new bulls got burned...again. Get me?

    All just my opinion, but things that keep me up at night.

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  60. Excellent short piece, a must read, by Alasdair Mcleod: http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.06.09%20Weak%20money.htm

    Clearly explained, enjoy!

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  61. hmmm, in the 37.20's... classify as a waterfall / raid? usual for the time of day though!

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  62. @NCOT

    Yep it's slipping. As I said, it's interesting. I wouldn't trade based off that info. I think Pailin is probably right that oil will be capped for PR reasons. The best way to get people to accept expensive gas is to let it move fast then stablise until the masses adjust.

    In Austraia we are paying the same price for gas as we were when oil was at $142. And our currency has appreciated 30% since then. But because the price has been the same for months, people just accept it. Even if the price of oil drops and our dollar gains it doesn't matter. Price remains the same.

    ReplyDelete
  63. @Devise
    That's the power of buying one commodity with another (via commodity rich fiat). Not 1:1 but close enough. I'm more interested in Aussie oil:gold ratio. If it's not too hard to figure...what is it from that last peak oil price period vs. today?

    Pre-hour 'bot resets. Don't (necessarily) get excited here :)

    ReplyDelete
  64. Corn discussed on Fast Money yesterday.
    Starts at 5:15

    Fast Money

    ReplyDelete
  65. Put a small gold day order on 1533.5
    I'm ok to hold that over the weekend if need be.

    Silver...I'm watching closely. Still short at 37, but may want to be flat over weekend, if I can get green on short. I'll likely hold if it stays red. Don't have strong feeling one way or the other on silver right now and am inclined to start carefully building a long position on deep waterfalls (33-hi35s) again. I consider 36s no-man's-land and 37s expensive (for paper). May be grabbing some physical soon, 36/37 is good price for rest of year overall on that.

    ReplyDelete
  66. So Greece is toast and our Metals just linger...Hmm

    ReplyDelete
  67. BIG DAY tomorrow?? Obviously Turd is talking about Nehro winning the Belmont Stakes! lol

    ReplyDelete
  68. We buy oil in US Dollars of course, so the ratio is the same in every country. Unless I've misunderstood.

    Peak was 6.561 barrels per ounce.
    Today is 15.27 barrels per ounce.

    Could you explain the bot resets a little? I can't find any resources on it.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Here's the waterfall. $36 here we come I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  70. left my desk for 5 mins... bugger!

    Better bounce!

    ReplyDelete
  71. even if gold rallies in a falling stock market, any thoughts on how gold stocks will fare? i'm thinking of buying dust today.

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Devise
    Yeah I think I asked that wrong, but you've got the answer for me.

    Thoughout the early morning hours (ET) I've noticed that whatever trend has prevailed through the length of the hour (up or down) it generally reverses itself partially, in the last 5-8 mins of the hour. It's only a guess, but I think it's bots re balancing against some formula. Anyway, it happens every day and that's what I call it.

    Just got my stink bid gold 1533.5
    Now we'll see if it's a winner or loser on the day :O

    ReplyDelete
  73. I hope Waffen's feeling a bit better now!

    ReplyDelete
  74. From 8:25 a.m to 8:32 a.m., around 12,500 contracts sold equaling about 62.5 million ounces of silver sold.

    Very nice.

    ReplyDelete
  75. FUBM - fed the cats and came back to blood red all over my chart - damn %@#!*&<> prop desk monkeys! (expensive cat food)

    Giving us another shot at sub 37/1532 prices BTFD !!!

    ReplyDelete
  76. Rui said..

    "I can assure you anyone believing "we all must borrow" is not someone you'd seek sound economic advice from"

    Wow, Rui...

    Have you ever owned a business? Did you build that business from the ground up, or did someone give it to you? Do you own your home? I could go on...

    I'm guessing NO, or you'd realize you have to borrow money to do these things. I don't know about you, but I'm not about to work for someone for half of my life before I can afford to buy my own home, and then maybe have enough in a few more years to build a hotdog cart and start a small business.

    How do you suppose a person that's starting out would acquire the capital required to launch a business? Just twinkle your toes and have it appear? Don't tell me you're one of these communist bastards! You don't have to borrow anything, Rui, but if I or any other entrepreneurs want to, then we will. If money could never be borrowed then there'd be a whole pile of poor slaves and renters running round with some great dreams and ideas for fictional businesses.

    ReplyDelete
  77. The 8 hour slow stochastic looks like we could have a long way to fall here

    ReplyDelete
  78. This is a pretty big COMEX takedown.
    COMEX 8:30 to 9 is usually a friendly environment.
    Gold breaks through 1525....bad.
    NYSE silver close 37.50, so will stops be run at open too? Or will there be hungry buyes? Dunno.

    This is a BTFD moment though if you have a end of year view of things, day trading..not so sure.

    ReplyDelete
  79. This is going to need one mother of an FUBM....

    ReplyDelete
  80. "The great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities, and are often even more influenced by the things that seem than by those that are."
    --Niccolo Machiavelli

    IMO, in this upside down, backwards, algo intense engineered market, this morning's raid may just be designed to clean out some stops and scare investors before a short term rally. My bet is silver and gold up nicely at the end of the day.

    But then, WTFK's.

    ReplyDelete
  81. HA, Larry, that was cheering me up til I read the caveat!

    But then, I think we all need that disclaimer!

    ReplyDelete
  82. The American economy is in bad shape. This articles explains how more and more people are tapping into their 401K as a resource of income. No more home equity loans, no more unemployment, etc etc

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/record-number-people-have-taken-out-loan-out-against-their-401k

    Big business will feel it too, not nearly as much as the people, but they will. Prepare yourselves for what's to come. Look at all your expenses and see where you can cut. Get smarter about your spending. Do you really need the expanded cable? do you really need that 9th beer, or will 8 be enough?

    Just some personal thoughts. I'm saving for my first monster box of ASE, when Silver is at $30.

    ReplyDelete
  83. around this time of day, the last 2 days, it started going up... so lets see if that will repeat itself..

    ReplyDelete
  84. they're still hitting it big time. another down slope here

    ReplyDelete
  85. silver flirting w/ 18 dma so far holding ok. dow at -40 and dollar best fall soon or it will get a lot worse before better. i'm betting on better. but only for a day or two.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Looks like a buying opportunity....of course, this sucker could drop all day.

    Based on ZH articles, it looks like the wheels are coming off of the bond market as well. I moved my 401Ks into bonds about a week ago, but I'm starting to think it's time to get into cash....any opinions from the Turd Herd? TIA

    ReplyDelete
  87. @/Sleeping Village/

    don't know what this rui guy says but i'm with u man, no loans, means no business, we would all be screwed

    ReplyDelete
  88. Good morning all, Gold bounced off the 200MA (1532.20) on the 2hr chart then fired through it and back up, now we just have to see if this was just stop triggering ounce stealing or a larger problem. This bounce has been anemic so far, but we just passed the first hurdle, the 15MA on the 1 minute chart which was pushing us down. I hope everyone is still ok. Good luck all. My post from last night:

    Hello all, went to the bank today to wire tulving some money. That always feels good. Not better than the delivery though.

    Anyway, everyone knows I think we go higher. B efore we do, I think there is a decent possibility of a raid and go in gold. Shakeout and go, whatever you want to call it. I say gold because that's what I mainly trade. I don't think it's a sure thing but if it happens, I'm expecting a spike down to the low 1530s to clear out the stops.

    The 200MA on the 2 hr chart is 1531, the bottom BB on the 2 hr chart is 1532, and the most recent low is 1531.80. This may be similiar to what happened on 5/20 at 9AM ET. That king of shakeout. We have been grinding around for a while and I'm sure many longs have thrown in the towel just to have JPM catch them, so I don't think we "need" the spike to get going. I have seen it many times in so many markets though (metals, stocks, currencies, etc). Look no further than the shakeout in the dollar before it fired just this morning. Also I feel terrible for the NGD holder yesterday (can't remember his handle), NGD hovered over the 200 day for a long time, then spiked down through it and five minutes later it was firing like it jumped off a trampoline. Countless NGD stops were triggered and shares "stolen".

    I doesn't have to happen but it may. Just a heads up to watch those stops.

    ReplyDelete
  89. I think for now on cnbc theme should be the old mario brothers theme music. And if in metals put the underground music

    ReplyDelete
  90. I may need to start a "Feed the NCOT" fund..!

    ReplyDelete
  91. Hi Level, what are your thoughts on Silver today?

    ReplyDelete
  92. @Kurt and @Rui,

    I've got to side with Rui and say that "we all must borrow" is extremely suspicious.

    ReplyDelete
  93. FWIW, covered my short 37 at 36.75.
    I can see this going either way, but I don't feel keen on being the party pooper anymore.

    Just long that gold right now, it's red but doing me no damage. If we really break down, I'd be looking to add at 1500, 1480.

    ReplyDelete
  94. well we got hit hard just now in gold and silver but let's see how it proceeds from here. I have September silver now, so it is not as if I have to really worry about temporary fluctuations though I don't want to be killed either... Wish I had sold short term gold last night though

    ReplyDelete
  95. starting to look ugly...

    (I'm just talking about the faces I'm pulling...)

    ReplyDelete
  96. @NCOT
    I'm in wait and see like everyone else. I expected a shake and go and so far we've gotten the shake. These things are always unsettling even if you expect it. The open in 20 minutes may be the George Bush for today (the decider).

    ReplyDelete
  97. Titus he is taking a very lengthy discussion out of context. I also don't really want to be dragged into this discussion. Has Rui posted here before? This is a conversation better had at FOFOA's site, not here. I don't think credit is bad, either. It is not some evil thing to borrow or lend.

    ReplyDelete
  98. They want the inventory of the SLV - my best guess... Otherwise why not take it down earlier on lower volume? The timing smacks of predatory accumulation targeting US open and week handed short term traders of SLV and GLD. With recent exposure of irregularities in HFT of nat gas and investigation thereof they either have the authorities in their pocket or are DESPERATE.

    Days like this I try to cheer myself up with pleasant thoughts of THE day when these fraudsters are exposed... drug out into the streets beaten, spat upon and lynched by a cheering smiling mob =]

    ReplyDelete
  99. To know if this is going to be a lasting raid... watch 1524 and then 1520. For silver watch ~36.1.

    If lower lows are created, you can bet they will try to keep that momentum going.

    --

    On the contrary, I woke up and saw this to think "they must be announcing something gold friendly soon."

    --

    ReplyDelete
  100. Another day of gross silver market manipulation it would seem.

    ReplyDelete
  101. 2 days of rises reversed in a few minutes....

    Harsh... Ready to BTFD

    I actually took my emergency reserve leverage out of my account yesterday, I thought we were safe!

    ReplyDelete
  102. Gold is completely outside the bottom BB on the 2hr chart. It tried to get back in at 1530.40 10 minutes ago but couldn't. Bad sign.

    We undercut the previous low just now but only dropped 60 cents in gold. Very good sign.

    ReplyDelete
  103. @NCOT
    Three nights in a row, no love from Asia overnight. This was building. The OPEC spike was kind of engineered too, not necessarily conspiracy theory but more along the lines of artificial inflation of oil and silver. The realities of things haven't changed much since Monday, right? It was a gift that we drove up Weds and Thurs, for whatever reason. The market wanted to go lower (sub 36). Doesn't mean there wasn't more to go higher, but you pyramid and set stops to contain the pain or hold the gain.

    I don't want to beat people over the head but the silver stop/loss was 37.25 on everything gained through last night. Sure you don't get it all, but you leave your upside open and freeze your gain or downside.

    ReplyDelete
  104. We should have known this was gonna happen after so quiet last 48 hours.
    Used to think Blythe Masters was kinda hot - now I just want to punch her in the face!

    ReplyDelete
  105. Apparently it's flume ride time in Disneyland.

    Don't get wet.

    ReplyDelete
  106. @Tesla
    She's still kinda hot.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Anybody see the BS rumors going around on twitter about world bank/imf selling gold? I saw it on ZH's feed, and they said "btw, they don't even own gold to sell." Wonder if that silly rumor has anything to do with this?

    ReplyDelete
  108. Good day Turdites.

    Just back from vacay - or as Eric would put, I'm back from crossing the street. LOL

    The H4 and the H8 ain't lookin so hot right now. As someone pointed out, there's a long way down yet.

    So pls be careful if you're BTFD.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Strange things afoot on BullionVault. Silver bid/ask is level with or below spot in sterling. Noticed this since last night. Normally there is a ten pound premium. Maybe reflects the yo-yo nature of the market at the moment. Dollar price is above spot, as per normal. Could be a chance for arbitrage?

    Word Veri - Prewors(!!!)

    ReplyDelete
  110. Pailin said:
    Three nights in a row, no love from Asia overnight.

    --------------

    FYI, physical demand from Asia is slowing down now due to seasonal issues.

    ReplyDelete
  111. @titus

    borrowing (to most americans) means taking out money to buy a fancy car.

    that is not what the essence of borrowing is. that in fact is idiotic. borrowing allows people to invest in businesses. it also allows people who are mentally sharp enough to figure out that working for another boss is actually a horrible way to live to get out of it.

    ReplyDelete
  112. There goes gold. I was laughing to myself a few days ago when gold was approaching 1550 about those who were again preaching that gold is the way to go and to put your money in gold now, not silver.

    Both are fine, but holy fuck, what an argument is it to say you must own something because it has just gone up?

    ReplyDelete
  113. @JoeKa
    You still got your short 37 on or did you get stopped out when US ran it up yesterday?

    ReplyDelete
  114. Just Photoshopped Blythe with my fist print in her face - I feel MUCH better now =]

    ReplyDelete
  115. Silver low bounced off the bottom of the 2hr bolling band bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Serious Siked for the new site.

    I’m a Jeff Clark phan.
    He recently charted the historical corrections from prior Gold Manias.

    Worth a look:
    http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/06/10/gold-correction-is-coming-jeff-clark/

    ~MV

    ReplyDelete
  117. "JoeKa | GREENBOY said...
    Pailin said:
    Three nights in a row, no love from Asia overnight.

    --------------

    FYI, physical demand from Asia is slowing down now due to seasonal issues."


    :DDD

    Still noone here gets that the GLOBEX is open overnight too.

    ReplyDelete
  118. @Markus
    Depends on your horizon. Most here thing gold 1550 will be fondly remembered in 6-12 months. But yeah, for the next several days, looks toppy, particularly since every monkey is now trained to sell it. Like the game from 1490-1500 that was running in April. Then it was over and if you just sold 1500 you watched sadly and it flew to 1570.

    ReplyDelete
  119. @ Tesla - hate the game, not the playa (or playess, as the case may be...) :-)

    Interesting headline, wonder about short-term impact (if any) on PM pricing:

    Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme, Business Viability In Question

    ReplyDelete
  120. Hi Level did you see they are changing TRE ticker to TRX June 25th?

    ReplyDelete
  121. Here's part 1 of the Jim Rogers Interview that Turd was pointing out in his post above:

    Jim Rogers interviewed by Glenn Beck

    ReplyDelete
  122. Helluva week for a gold trader to be at the beach. Sheesh Turd, maybe the new site could have your thoughts on best week to take a summer vacation without having to monitor your screen.

    Anyway, the damage to my miners is minimal today. For the record, I was stopped out of 1/4 of my NGD on Wed. Still holding the bag on CDE and JAG. If I were at the office, I'd trade this action. Not today.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Hard for a person who knows what real money is to, over and over again, see these fools rush into the dollar as a safe haven during this Bernanke takedown of the markets as a set up for QE3. The power of EE seems to have no limits until it is completely destroyed, but how? When? What will trigger the inevitable. Only a mass awakening of the investing masses into real money will precipitate the fall of the EE.

    "Basically, QE2 was a failure, so it will be repeated.

    The QE2 provided demand for USTreasury auctions, when most foreign creditors went on a buyer's strike. So QE will be repeated.

    The housing market has resumed its downward path, with frightening declines to the bank balance sheets. So QE will be repeated.

    The big US banks remain insolvent, loaded down by a mountain of one million REO homes in inventory. Buyers of mortgage bonds have disappeared. So QE will be repeated.

    The USGovt deficit picture is a full blown nightmare. Rather than see market mechanisms kick into gear, with higher interest rates imposed, the leaders will continue on the hyper monetary inflation path. So QE will be repeated.

    Talk of the risk trade counter to the USDollar ending is nonsense. Wiemar has met Wall Street, the syndicate handlers of the USGovt and US security agencies. The Printing Pre$$ with US nameplate cannot be stopped. So QE will be repeated

    The Gold & Silver prices will move up hard, as soon as the light bulb goes on that QE3 is imminent without interruption.

    One must be a total moron not to anticipate its immediate installation. To decide not to continue QE would force failures upon major US banks.
    The USFed is all bluff with no good cards in their poker hand. They will wait for stocks to be a little cheaper and both sides of the USCongress to beg for QE3."

    Jim Willie CB 8 June 2011
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie060811.html

    Now that we know this. How long will Bernanke squeeze the markets until they holler Uncle and scream for more QE heroin?

    ReplyDelete
  124. NCOT - a disclaimer always seems to negate any projection... ain't it the truth! This market, short term anyway, is anyone's guess. Nat Gas may be this weeks poster child for upside down bizzarro HFT. Long term I think we're all very long physical (fizz rolls better off the keyboard).

    Miners are another story. One day they (the good ones) will blast to the moon. How low we go for a bottom is anyones guess. By the way, I really do think we see a very nice rally before a stock market crash where everything goes down big. At that point they go up for years. I held some for the long ride down in 2008. They were back within months. Even though I'm up much on those that I still hold I'd rather not do it that way this time... the big money was made by smarter folks than me that bought with 50-60% discounts on my miners.

    Tesla - you had a post yesterday about this crisis being by design. I believe it too. Have you read CRISIS BY DESIGN by John Truman Wolfe? That is a pen name for Bruce Wiseman. He's a sharp fella. Big on silver since way back.

    ReplyDelete
  125. @tesla

    Yeah, in the KWN interview. Any reason? Doesn't seem to make any difference to me.

    ReplyDelete
  126. @CD - Just having some fun venting... my 'keep yourself sane' and such therapy - I'm buying another 10oz or so today too (always makes me smile)

    ___

    Glad I closed my kitco account may 1st (for more reasons now =)
    BTW kitco prices are often 1 minute or more behind real time - made money off that for 3 years =b

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ Markus,

    JoeKa lives in Singapore. I am pretty sure he is aware of the Globex being open. As are most people here. I do not get your point

    ReplyDelete
  128. @Level

    something about confusion with another stock that was a popular short according to CNBS - didn't catch the whole bit - sorry. But I'm sure they will talk about it some more today (hard to listen to w/o getting mad at shills)

    ReplyDelete
  129. ZH saying Kitco have been charged with massive tax fraud..

    ReplyDelete
  130. We can trade overnight? No way! Boy do we all have alot to learn.

    ReplyDelete
  131. @e7

    markus is one of those losers who goes to hang out with people who don't want him around. u know the type.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Anyone got the second part of the interview? I've always like Jim...and I wish I had listened more closely to him.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Oh to see John Nadler frogmarched out of Kitco Global Headquarters in leg chains. . . . that would be a thing of beauty.

    Meanwhile, HUI at 510.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Hey Pailin. How are you buddy.

    Yes my 37 is still on and I was thinking of adding to that position on the rally up yesterday...but i decided to just switch off and spend quality time with my wife.

    Now that pays me greater dividends than any precious metal. :)

    ReplyDelete
  135. A lot of people selling SIno-Forest, which is TRE in Toronto. Some concern that they are confusing TRE in New York, which is Tanzanian.

    ReplyDelete
  136. @joe -- look a little further up, the YouTube links I posted are still up & available

    ReplyDelete
  137. @Eric#1

    Apparrently TRE is changing to TRX next week.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Devise
    Right. Someone asked why, and I was trying to explain.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Larry said...

    IMO, in this upside down, backwards, algo intense engineered market......

    But then, WTFK's.
    +++++++++++++++

    WTF Larry. I thought you knew. You are suppose to know. If you don't know WTF am I gonna do now?

    ReplyDelete
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