Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Almost Ready

The new site is ready. The programmers are simply cleaning it up and removing test content. Keep checking back today.

Both PMs have found support in the areas where we would have expected it to materialize. Gold near 1515 and silver near 34.20. The support is nice to see but I wouldn't get too excited about it yet.

Gold gives us a clear range to watch bordered by 1512 on the bottom and 1525 on the top. A breach of either will provide us with some short term direction.
Silver is similar with a range between 34.40 and 35.20.

One interesting thing to watch is Ole DrC. Nothing to get excited about just yet but definitely something to keep an eye on.
I'll be sure to post a link on this site when the new site is ready.
Thanks for your patience. TF


3:00 EDT UPDATE:
The new site is almost ready for you. I'm currently uploading an introductory video and performing some other "housekeeping" tasks. None of this will take longer than two hours so please check back to this current site and you'll find all the directions/instructions in a new post I will have for you by 5:00 EDT. Thanks! TF

222 comments:

  1. business inventories is sales.

    february to march sales (adjusted) grew 2.4%

    march to april sales (adjusted) grew .1%

    http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

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  2. Y'all need to learn how to count!

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  3. Nice to see everything in the green. I keep looking at GPL, but wondering if it's stuck under 3$.

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  4. Im tired of looking at these library books!

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  5. Or maybe I don't count at all - but thats NOT how I see it (bias I guess?)

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  6. @wis99ski, my wife keeps asking me why I keep looking at 'that library site'.. lol

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  7. J.P Morgan ousts mortgage exec: report

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/06/14/j-p-morgan-ousts-mortgage-exec-report/

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  8. seriously though, did silver not just hit 35.20 like a brick wall and not go through?!

    Spot on Turd!

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  9. @jimnpol - at a grocery store?

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  10. Ok some questions for you guys:

    1 - I still have a long August beef that is from break even to a small loss - time to get out or hold for a break up?

    2 - I have some short market indices - all in the red as the market popped up. However these are for Sept. Market has not continued to tank despite bad news - thoughts?

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  11. I retract my comment re 35.20..

    hovering nicely on it...

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  12. Wait until you hear the surprise I have for you this afternoon! It's going to be a doozy. You'll pay for the whole seat, but you'll only use the edge!

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  13. Can't wait Turd, honored and grateful to be one of your followers. Not a regular poster, but a daily reader. Keep up the good work. Thanks.

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  14. I gotta go work on a website now myself... (thank God for some work!)
    But I'll come back later and assign numbers to all who are still confused =0

    BTW
    Turd is really 'FIRST' but he's also '#2'... so ???

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  15. @Tesla.. thanks, I think Stevy may need your help the most though!

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  16. Glad Google let me sign in for two days in a row. Hope it's the last time I have to do so.

    I'm a little curious to see what TF has in store for us with the new website and what has changed and what hasn't.

    My impression is that TF has a appreciation for the fine things in life and doesn't do anything half-ass and the website will reflect that.

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  17. I posit a serious question, we have a significant portion of our funds locked up in physical silver, which appears to be going nowhere fast. At $34.00 we are upside down on just about all of it. I don't really want to sell any of our family's shiny "insurance policy", but it bothers me that it's sitting there doing nothing, stagnant, or declining - we need to at least keep up with inflation, you know?

    Ideas?

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  18. ‘Crisis’ if debt ceiling isn’t raised: Obama

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2011/06/14/crisis-if-debt-ceiling-isnt-raised-obama/

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  19. Pablo it is dissappointing to see the value of your shiny below cost. How long can you wait?

    If it were me and I didn't need it until at least fall I would put it away and forget about it.

    Unfortunately inflation is like a GIC it moves steadily and in one direction only. Comparing that to precious metals is difficult as they move quickly, but in two directions!

    There are not enough guarantees in life that are positive!

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  20. @Pablo:

    Don't worry about inflation at the moment. We're about to hit the next deflationary movement, IMO. Time to buy more and cost-average down.

    And when QEx kicks in, don't worry... silver will FAR FAR outpace any inflation.

    Relax, and hold your shiny in your hands. Really. Hold it. Show it to your wife and kids. I let my kids play with morgan dollars, peace dollars, and American Silver Eagle dollars. That way they start learning that is what money is SUPPOSED to look (and feel) like!

    Silver is FIRST a means to PROTECT wealth. It will NEVER be worth ZERO. (But it WILL go up and down like crazy!) Silver is SECOND a way to MAKE money due to the manipulation that is starting to fail. Keep the LONG TERM goals in sight!

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  21. Regarding Minera Andes and US Gold:

    I haven't really crunched the numbers, so I can't really comment on the price, etc, but generally speaking, big picture wise, I like the idea.

    I own both so I'm not really sweating the details. McEwen always has his own skin in the game, so I'm fine riding along with whatever he wants to do. Maybe they should just roll up Lexam VG Gold in there too while they are at it.

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  22. Mr Ferguson, I trust you understand that while you may hate me, I am simply doing my job. It is nothing personal, we all have our roles to play. At least I gave you some advance notice of pending operations from time to time.

    Congratulations on your new website, Mr. Ferguson. I do so treasure these moments we have together.

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  23. My opinion is don't even consider selling your physical Au or Ag unless you have some extreme financial emergency you absolutely have to address.
    Paper money just sits in a bank or wherever and most people accept that eventhough the USD fluctuates down and up and they don't get rid of it because of that.
    You'll end up deeply regretting it if you sell it.
    Think long term. The price of PM's will rise as inflation takes hold.

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  24. @Pablo
    Sell your physical silver now and you'll be a lot like those that bought $22 and sold $12 in 2008. At least they didn't ride it down to $9, right?

    But hey, take proceeds and buy some TIPS...to keep up with inflation?

    Word ver: rationd
    Apropos.

    But seriously. Whatever you do, don't over commit next time. It seems that was your biggest mistake. Second biggest mistake? I don't hear you talking about gold. It's only 4% off it's high, instead of 35% like silver. If you stay in the game, maybe a 50/50 allocation in the future?

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  25. We all KNOW Ben S Bernanke can't count lower than a billion (or is it Trillion.. er ...even he's not sure!) ... Obummer will make sure your the first one under the bus mr B - no doubt about it pal =]

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  26. Pablo

    Sit tight buddy. Stop valuing your pile everyday. Just put it away somewhere out of sight and out of mind and forget about it for a while.

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  27. I figured your advice would be to sit on it, that's the smart thing to do considering the availability and premiums on physical. It just bothers me all the other opportunities we're passing up to make some monkey money before it finally all implodes. But, better safe than sorry!

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  28. RVM again succeeds at defying all logic. Silver up. Copper up. Market up. RVM, the eternal contrarian investment. RVM rejects the notion of trends. All of them.

    Today's silver seems to reinforce the argument that silver is trading on industrial numbers and there isn't a shortage enough to drive prices into a frenzy in that space. I know it's a for granted fundamental that there is not sufficient silver, but the slow economies were enough to unbid silver to this point. Individual raids aside, nobody has been buying. This does give me pause in the silver = money dept. Silver is money, but the silver = money people want it to approach gold. That doesn't seem possible to me anymore, based on the last two months.

    If all the evil speculators are gone, and as JS's linked article showed the other day that the big money has moved long, we should be ready to start a new run of speculator driven nirvana come fall. That's the best silver lining I've seen in a good while.

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  29. @Pablo,
    Listen to Eric Sprott's latest interview.
    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/11_Eric_Sprott.html

    @Eric#1,

    I agree and am positioned the same for the last couple years!

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  30. We have a 75% silver / 25% gold allocation. Everything I know about gold I learned from Eric #1 :)

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  31. Pablo

    "all the other opportunities we're passing up"

    Really? We're facing a summer of extreme uncertainty in all markets. Stocks, bonds, commodities. Sharks in the waters everywhere you look, long or short.

    A shoebox full of metals under the bed sounds relatively good to me!

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  32. Ah Pablo,
    You learned from the master.

    :]

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  33. Blythe...We know your not the real one, so my question is...
    A) Are you a woman or a man?
    B) If your a man just impersonating Blythe, are you dressed up as a woman while your pretending to be one online?
    C)Are you a.k.a. Trinity Blue?

    Simply amusing.

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  34. FDIC OKs minimum capital standard for banks - MarketWatch

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-oks-minimum-capital-standard-for-banks-2011-06-14?link=MW_home_latest_news

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  35. Pablo

    stop it you're making me blush :D

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  36. @Kiwi
    I am long GPl right now and it not only needs to break $3.00 but more so it needs a close above $3.44 at some point to confirm as a double bottom from the two lows of the last three weeks at $2.52

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  37. Yeah ..Eric blushes a pale 'yellow' color.
    :D

    Can't wait for the new site today!

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  38. Blythe, I don't believe TF ever said he hates you. Project much?

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  39. Pablo - keep all the physical as long term savings. There may come a time in the future to sell but it is nowhere close to now.

    If any is "paper" as in stocks, etfs, options, futures, that is totally different.

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  40. Reach out your hand if your cup be empty,
    If your cup is full may it be again,
    Let it be known there is a fountain,
    That was not made by the hands of men.

    There is a road, no simple highway,
    Between the dawn and the dark of night,
    And if you go no one may follow,
    That path is for your steps alone.

    Ripple in still water,
    When there is no pebble tossed,
    Nor wind to blow.

    You who choose to lead must follow
    But if you fall you fall alone,
    If you should stand then whos to guide you?
    If I knew the way I would take you home

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  41. I'm more like 80% Ag and 20% Au right now.
    My longterm goal is to try and slowly and surely acquire 1000 oz/100 oz.
    Eventhough that would throw the ratio off dramatically it also would be quite a bit of Au/Ag, for me at least.

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  42. Hmmmm, two of our local trolls have posted cryptic messages today. Some trolls are just trolls, but others intrigue me a bit. Perhaps there is category of "leakers" from the dark side who relieve their cognitive dissonance for the pain they inflict on the world by dropping hints on discussion sites like this one. Or maybe they are just trolls messing with my head.

    WE have just bounced off an ascending lower trendline this morning that dates back to last August. I'd like to see a sharper bounce away from it than we are getting. Are the BoS who have rescued us i n the past still active? Or are they waiting for cheaper silver?

    I plan to keep stacking physical this summer. I have stopped trading for now, per Turd's (and others here) sage advice.

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  43. Sold TBT will buy back in when she corrects down.

    Timing is everything in life.

    1:04a

    Fed buys $3.2 bln in bonds; Treasurys stay down
    11:03a

    BREAKING

    Fed buys $3.2 billion in Treasurys

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  44. rofl at Timothy. just print it man we're waiting on you for crying out loud.

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  45. As we wandered off into the esoteric world
    of alternative energy, the key things to
    remember are that Uranium gives clean nuclear
    power which in turn provides electricity to
    run rare earth magentic motors - also clean -
    whether they are inside a Toyota Prius or
    a magnetic refridgeration unit (looking a
    little further ahead). This all can/will/must
    happen simply because oil will run out (good!),
    and because the world becomes ever more polluted.
    Japan is a tragedy that set all of this back a
    bit, but the German response (to return to coal)
    was fairly mind numbing especially when one
    considers their proximity to hostile tectonic
    (teutonic?) plates, together with the most
    unlikely scenario that they fall prey to a
    Tsunami. Yes, there is potential for nuclear
    power accidents (when one employs 40 year old
    plant design), but there is also potential in
    the world for deliberate nuclear misuse.
    Nothing much gets done about preventing that.
    Nuclear plus rare earth buys the planet a lot
    of time, at least until something better turns
    up, which I believe it will.

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  46. News out of my favorite little pet miner (Bralorne) today. Looks to me like ore grades are coming in just fine. They just need to reduce downtime on the mill and get the tonnage up to plan and all should be good! Yay!

    http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/bralorne-produces-gold-tsx-venture-bpm-1526259.htm

    http://www.lillooetnews.net/article/20110601/LILLOOET0101/306019986/-1/lillooet/bralorne-gold-mine-reopens

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  47. Whatever happened to the daily EE attacks? Does Blythe figure the market is stomping us well enough without her help?

    P.S. I just got stopped out of AGQ, I think I set my stops a little tight, but it's nice to get stopped out with a profit for a change ;-)

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  48. @Tesla -- "BTW Turd is really 'FIRST' but he's also '#2'... so ???"

    ROTFL. Thank you for that. BTW, saw some pretty cool Tesla coils and the world's largest Van der Graaf generator the other day (or so they claimed)

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  49. @ Pablo - Short stocks, long gold. GSR ratio may fall a bit here, which would be nice as I jumped into some silver stocks yesterday. Maybe see what kind of deal your local dealer has on eagles, as those carry the big premiums, and premium is usually lost over time. It's not the right time to swap for gold, but my hunch is the usual seasonal patterns are out the window. Then again, if that's true, then silver is just in a trading range and will break out violently come fall.
    @ Kurt - Hang onto your shorts. We'll probably see more of a rally in equities tomorrow, but a sell off into the week. Then a climb back up. Then a pretty nasty correction. Yesterday was a bear trap. Now we're heading into the bull traps.

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  50. harfwit. Agree and hope that Germany rethinks the plan in the generous time they've allowed themselves to get out of nuclear. Coal is so badass.

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  51. For whatever reason, it's "risk on" for equities, materials, commodities etc today (they are all trading as one anyway). Like TF, I am cautiously optimistic about this. For all we know, everything could be down in a couple of hours. The broad indices bounced off the 50d MA at the beginning of the month, but everyone got faked out of their boxers (and taken to the woodshed) in a big way. Now we are witnessing a similar looking rebound at the 150d levels. I have no idea if this is one and done (again) or perhaps something like what occurred from mid March onward is about to unfold. It seems rather silly to me that everything instantly comes undone at the end of this month (when QE is supposedly over) like many have suggested, but what the heck do I know about what is actually going on anyway? I am just another chump attempting to throw darts at a "moving" target.

    Turd: I agree with most here that you are doing a great job, however, your comments about "getting ready for happier times in the fall" coupled with the rollout of the new and improved site has made me a little uneasy.

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  52. Re Timmy
    WTF - Post was there and is now gone, how did he do that? weird??

    Anybody else notice this???

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  53. Cookie - I was thinking that too I need to be more patient. I might even double down short on the minis tomorrow...

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  54. KOL

    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/kol

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  55. @Kiwi#1 said...
    Whatever happened to the daily EE attacks? Does Blythe figure the market is stomping us well enough without her help

    ermmmm what do you call yesterday and Friday then?

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  56. Tesla

    I've seen that happen a couple of times. Just a weird blogger thing as far as I know.

    Word Verif: ferts
    Sometimes that Apple Cider Vinegar gives me the ferts.

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  57. He keeps saying different stuff then it changes...
    ------------
    Timothy Geithner said...

    Anyone here have a little spare change?
    June 14, 2011 11:28 AM
    -------------
    Timothy Geithner said...

    Can I borrow a little money from someone, please?
    June 14, 2011 11:28 AM

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  58. Tesla. Yes I responded to it. By the time my post went up Timothy's was gone. No delete stamp though. Interrrresting.

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  59. @ kurt
    yeah patience is key in this market as every day is opposite day.
    the low volume and manipulation create that.
    but if you double down tomorrow, be careful as next week will be a nice rally. i'm waiting for the 1310-15 (50 dma on s&p) to apply shorts. then i'm taking a long weekend kayaking trip and hope to come back to some nice gains...
    @ bullwhip i think qe is over june 22. anything can happen! i'm pretty sure the greeks will take the bailout package tomorrow. so it will be a crazy day.

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  60. Long John, reading The Dead's lyrics brought tears to my eyes. Really.

    Pablo, I see you've gotten a lot of advice. But I know the feeling. I felt somewhat similarly after I went all in(not quite a decade ago) many times over the years. There were times when I wanted to take profits...which I have in gold but not in silver. I'm still stacking, whatever the price in small Italian cars.

    Turdmeister, another big round on me. :-) I'd been a Sysop in the 80's (for you youngsters, a BBS was a sort of precursor to blogs) and it's no small task. I've been reading - as much as I can - since day one. I've come to admire the style and trading of many of the "regulars" here, their comments, even the occasional entertaining shill and newcomer. And the most important thing I learned is: stay away from trading. For me, anyway. I will sit back and admire your (collective your) youth and enthusiasm and learn from your wisdom. Tom Paine wrote a lot of sage advise at the founding of our country, and he wrote about money too...and I learned. It was about 50 years ago that I stopped trusting paper money.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."
    P.S. Pablo, I still buy the occasional Libertad and anytime they're still under the mid-40s or so, it feels like a bargain.

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  61. @ ncot - are you still short silver here? i'm staying long here if things clear up this afternoon. i'm counting on a euro move up tomorrow, but i don't want to be surprised if the rioters burn down parliament or something. but wait, wouldn't that be good for gold & silver too?

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  62. Ok, July corn went limit down to 7.525. Back to 50% of original position at 7.575. That's it for today unless Bunge wants some at 7.72 today.

    I'm a babe in the pits in the corn market, so don't follow me. Do your own analysis, manage your risk and do not gamble with money you cannot afford to lose. July contract doesn't have much time left and the market is bound to be volatile.

    GLTA

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  63. Hacker Group Targeting Fed in Retaliation for Economic Crisis

    just out, ....strange days indeed! ....4 minute You Tube video.
    Has the revolution begun???

    MUST WATCH

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XySGw-g2tyk

    The hacker collective calling itself “Anonymous” has promised some sort of action against the Federal Reserve today, according to the above video (posted to YouTube) which is apparently from members of Anonymous.

    The group is calling its impending action “Operating Empire State Rebellion.”

    The entirety of the text presented in the video is as follows:

    “90 days ago, we requested Ben Bernanke’s resignation as Federal Reserve Chairman.

    Mr. Bernanke has not complied with our request.

    The Federal Reserve’s policies are systematically looting the country to enrich one-tenth of one percent of the population.

    The Federal Reserve has deliberately driven tens of millions of people into poverty.

    The Federal Reserve is responsible for crimes against humanity.

    The Federal Reserve gave trillions of American taxpayer dollars, in secrecy, to the people who were most responsible for causing our economic crisis.

    Our tax dollars were handed out as all-time record-breaking bonuses to top executives at the Too Big to Fail global banks...........

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  64. @NCOT

    Okay, ya got me... I was out a lot yesterday so I didn't experience it directly... maybe what's bumming me is with a bear market, BTFD is not a really good plan, because after the big drop silver just lays there twitching.... I liked the big moves back up... trading this market is a total pain, can't wait for QEwhatever.

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  65. @LongJohn

    Nice! My dogs names are Ripple and Cassidy... :)

    @all

    I've thrown a DJI overlay on the netdania chart. Check it out, show's the risk-on/risk-off correlation very clearly, imo...

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  66. Hey Tim, how much do you want? I've got you covered.

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  67. @cookie, no, I'm out, and got my wrists slapped by Pailin and JoeKa earlier..

    Staying out and licking my wounds.

    Closed the short earlier with some profit, but loads of ground to still make up.

    @Kiwi.. BTFD definitely did not work if you did it on Friday!

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  68. Seventy eighth!!!! (Plus or minus 10).

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  69. @michael....sweet, i love that song too...just heard it on the radio~

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  70. Thanks not only to TF, but to the rest of you who post up helpful information. I rely on this site daily even though I am not a trader, simply a stacker. BTW, been reading for a few weeks but don't recall the URL for the new site. Please post. Thanks, CT.

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  71. @harfwit -

    the German response to nuclear energy is not "return to coal", it's "move to renewable energy". Germany already gets 6% of total electricity from wind. There are also reasonable concepts being developed for energy storage, notably using excess electric power from wind & solar to produce methane from water & CO2. there is a company that claims the round-trip (electricity - methane - electricity) can be made 65% efficient, which isn't bad. And Germany has a great infrastructure for storage / transport of methane (natural gas).

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  72. @ CookieMonster

    Perhaps you are right, but continuing to bailout TBTF EU nations (among others) is effectively QE under a different name. I say the theatrics continue on past tomorrow. Regardless of the precise timing, this bailout doesn't fix much.

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  73. Hey guys just a heads up, 4chan is going to DDoS the treasury and fed in 17 minutes from now.

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  74. Corn limit down, talk in Congress about removing ethanol subsidies, not expected to pass. I should have seen this coming. Looks like a buying opportunity, if I weren't already long.

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  75. Which will provide the perfect excuse for them to tank the markets, and black it on Internet Hackers, and then over-regulate the Internet for our "safety".

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  76. @uptofreedom nice! we got Dead Heads in the house... what a long strange trip it's gonna' be~

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  77. Finished up my short from 37 to 34.88 for a +6% trade to the downside. Given the high volume at which I shorted, it was an extremely good trade.

    So that's it. See what new opportunities present themselves moving forward.

    I'm done for the day. Goodnight all.

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  78. What are you talking about, gold and silver both keep making new lows on any timeframe you look at. Is it that hard to spot a downtrend?

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  79. Someone up above just mention the lack of EE intervention lately?
    Ask and you shall receive appears to be happening right now.

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  80. Forgot to add earlier that I caught a mini double bottom pattern on the XAG H4 starting on the lows for 10 Jun til today which led me to conclude the trade.

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  81. What forum of 4chan discusses finance?

    Whoops make that posts pictures related and unrelated and discusses finance.

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  82. Re Timmy
    WTF - Post was there and is now gone, how did he do that? weird??

    Anybody else notice this???

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  83. FYI Just found Lind Waldock on Youtube talking of shortages in gold.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNZmVFamR5w


    The big money for sure is not going to be shorting metals. It will be too risky for them IMO. All the shorts are coming from the public.

    anyone needing assurances, Jim Rogers bought some silver last week.

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  84. @Art Lomax

    You forgot to mention soybeans, wheat, oats, rice...

    Inflation too high? There, take some of this. Problem fixed. (courtesy of our friendly neighborhood mob rulers)

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  85. @Eric,Seven,Happy

    My first thought was admin was messing w/ us, now I see this hacker group is interested in what we are conversing about here. You have to have access to the back end to completely vanish make post w/o a trace... I say we are being visited by ....t h e m

    ???

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  86. Pablo - i'll mirror everyone else here and tell you to sit and be patient. Think of having all that silver as a fraudulent-free home savings account that no one can monazite or lend out 9x's leverage.

    Also, whenever I get a little nervous I look at this long term trend channel. We sill have not broken out of the bottom trend line. Keep following the lines out 5-10 years. Silver is still the best asset class investment of the past year despite it's ruthless beatings. It's an amazing metal and something you want to keep.

    Daily silver since 2008 as of 6/13/11: http://i96.photobucket.com/albums/l173/barnz008/Screenshot2011-06-13at101151PM.png

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  87. Survey suggests CEOs will ramp up hiring in second half of 2011 - The Hill's On The Money

    http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/166257-survey-suggests-ceo-will-ramp-up-hiring-in-second-half-of-2011

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  88. FOAGQ. Patience ran out already. Sold just now from the dip yesterday. Still have more AGQ. Will pick up a shot of ZSL on any further high.

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  89. @NCOT. bet you are glad you sold your short for gain now

    Too bad silver isn't following so well.

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  90. Strange, but im beginning to enjoy some of the sock puppet trolls like Bernanke/Blyth popping in with their comments. It's like watching the village idiot, you know you shouldn't point and laught at them but it's hard not to.

    Getting tempted to jump back in but i'm staying away now for a bit unless we get a solid bottom or unless Turd says otherwise. I'm too much of a noob and i know i'm going to get my finger burnt if i do

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  91. i would be all for 'anonymous' & those internet groups except when they hacked playstation, they stole my credit card and tried to buy $400 worth of costume jewelry at a french store.
    not cool guys. if you're going to liberate the people, don't screw them right before rent is due.

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  92. @SnoochieBoochies

    Actually, The Bernanke/Blythe characters here seem to be more comical for their satire. I don't see them as trolls. They're just providing levity, humour, satire, and a foil for what's REALLY happening. I don't mind them at all. They don't seem to be attacking anyone, just "playing their part".

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  93. I've been watching this 34 area on GDXJ for a long time. I'm kinda liking how it reclaimed that hill today.

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  94. Will add some physical "Kangaroos" on the dip scheduled in about 2 minutes. I think this summer is going to surprise a lot of people. JD.

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  95. Here's a suggestions for the new site: Ban inconclusive words such as: "surprise", "exciting", "surprise", etc. If you mean "up", say "up" damnit. its not that hard.

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  96. Got a Deadhead sticker on my Cadillac.........
    TF, sounds like you're feelin' better!
    New site....YEAH!!

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  97. Basel III changes the game....

    Currently, the Federal Reserve purchases 70% of US Treasuries issued. When QE2 stops, who will pick up the slack?

    Well... the answer is in the new Basel III regulations.... ALL the banks will... to meet new liquidity requirements!

    'In my opinion, the implications of this are crystal clear: banks will obviously need to dramatically ramp up their holdings of these securities (mainly treasuries) in order to comply with the LCR ratio. This could provide a significant tailwind to treasury demand over the near to intermediate term. S&P says it best, “We believe there is a risk that this standard is too conservative- to the point where it could create a shortage of liquid assets…”'

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-could-basel-iii-create-floor-sovereign-debt-prices

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  98. Silver breaks to the upside 1:13 EST... mini rally I hope?

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  99. @ jimmy -
    how about jumpin jehosephats! look at silver break resistance. wahoo for now!

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  100. I just developed a lump in my throat on that silver spike, is it a bull trap?

    Anyone else feel that?

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  101. The Embry interview on KWN looks like it's going to be great from the snippets on the blog.

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  102. I curse my lack of patience!

    oh well, got some ZSL now.

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  103. Happy- Just sold the AQG I bought yesterday at around spot 35.50... I too may also hit the ZSL but I would be more comfortable around 36 or so- we'll see. Waiting in cash for now. Good trading!

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  104. Lord have mercy, I don't know why anyone would short the Greatest Bull Market in the History of the World! jd.

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  105. hey we can drink our silver and make colloidal silver :)

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  106. @All

    Anyone notice that the term "Silver Prices" is a yahoo top 10 Search result?

    Hmmmm????

    Phantom

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  107. Duke- Can't speak for all, but for me the paper game is a tool to generate fiat so I can stack more physical, so I don't care whether it goes up or down in the immediate term as long as I am ahead of the curve. You are totally right about the power of this bull market in the longer term- being ready to exit shorts immediately if the market turns on you is a must.

    I guess some of us just enjoy catching falling knives ;-)

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  108. Duke, no idea but it has paid off. If you can explain that then you'd know why and you could tell me.

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  109. Yeah Phantom, That is new... What's your read?

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  110. not a trap just a crashing dollar.
    looking for news stories on greece to confirm what's up in the greenback. any links?

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  111. Cookie, much better. ;D

    So any theories on Bennys speak today and the impact?

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  112. @Gramp

    Sorry, I can't figure out why "Silver Prices" would be trending so high next to the POTUS saying he's happy to be a one termer. Can't find anything that would catalyze a rush of people searching for the term.

    Here's one guess though: The Khardashians mentioned it

    Phantom

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  113. That last bit was a joke.

    Phantom

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  114. Phantom said...
    Here's one guess though: The Khardashians mentioned it
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    OMG... wow u are "plugged" in dude! lol!
    Would not doubt it thats the reason.
    Silver didn't get that attention when it was @ $49+!
    Hopefully the Khardashians are teaching the Masses about where to put your $... lol
    If not would that be seen as MSM picking up the silver ball...?

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  115. @stevey...I drink silver when needed. Make my own colloidal silver w/ Sota Silver Pulser. It's good stuff!

    also keep in in little spray bottles to spray on cuts, use as hand santizer etc....

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  116. Just the opposite of what happened during the same hour yesterday. Well, will just have to pony up an additional $80 for my "Roos" than if I had bought this morning. That will be pretty insignificant by EOY. jd.

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  117. Sorry, nothing to do with the thread, but now I'm really f'n mad. And yet I still have to take it.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-missing-billions-20110613,0,4414060.story

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  118. This rally is sweet if your a day trader...Not so sweet if your in a 401k. Run the rally up prior to the 401k contributions so inflated stocks can be unloaded on retirement plans. The criminals run the market up, and take their profits, leaving the US middle class holding the bag, as the returns are stripped prior to their investment.

    Its real easy to see what is going on here. Only in the US folks, can an entire population be defrauded in broad daylight.

    Like I said its a day traders dream, but a retirement plans nightmare.

    " The 401k statement is in Honey, Ehh just leave it on the counter ".

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  119. I hope you are all paying close attention to what I have to say in about 20 minutes!

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  120. blast! What did I miss?!

    Cookie, you long now? last I heard I thought you were short?!

    I'm still sitting on my hands.. sitting in the naughty corner...

    Pissed at myself for flipping yesterday, but tbh if I didnt do it yesterday, I probably would have cracked on this mornings drop.

    Wondering if its safe to go long again?

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  121. Why anyone would wait to buy Roo's when
    It's the Greatest Bull Market in the History of the World!

    (that's a joke, not an insult)

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  122. Can't wait Ben!
    Should we go short or long?

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  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  124. I can imagine that it's one spirit to gain independence but a different one when seeking to spread influence around the world.

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  125. From Paul Farrell at MarketWatch
    6/14/2011

    "...Unfortunately, the new narcissistic capitalists are blind to this paradigm shift in America’s destiny. As Lasch puts it: “Impending disaster has become an everyday concern, so commonplace and familiar that nobody any longer gives much thought to how disaster might be averted. People busy themselves instead with survival strategies, measures designed to prolong their own lives, or programs guaranteed to ensure good health and peace of mind.” Get it? Deep inside we know it’s too late, so we give up.

    Yes, this narcissism is metastasizing so rapidly Americans feel ever more helpless to solve our problems, making collapse a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes, this toxic narcissistic virus has infected America’s soul, eating away at our core values while blinding us to both the problem and the solution.

    We have lost the collective spirit that led 57 capitalists to risk their lives and fortunes signing of the Declaration of Independence. That’s dead. Today it’s “every man for himself” in a capitalist anarchy.

    You ask, why do we embrace our own demise like out-of-control addicts? In behavioral economics, as in classical Greek drama, Jungian psychology and cultural mythologies … all the battles we see “out there” are actually projections of unresolved conflicts raging deep within our own souls … we’re rehashing old traumas projected on the outside world as battles between our highest ideals and our darkest secrets … classic battles between good and evil.

    But they are conflicts buried deep in what Jung called “The Shadow,” a prison of dark secrets we cannot admit even to ourselves. In there, fierce battles are fought for the possession of our immoral souls … projected onto news, politics and finance, in television and films, theater, literature, history and dreams, at the dinner table and in the bedroom, “out there” we try to resolve our innermost secrets, never fully understanding how our minds are tricking us into inaction.

    And as our individual souls and our collective unconscious splits further and further apart, eventually we will collectively implode and collapse."
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Pretty much sums up how our politicians are dealing with our overall debt and spending situation. I think they have accepted a dramatic debt ceiling deadline breach as inevitable and will hastily make some deal or arrangement to keep it all afloat right near or after the supposed deadline.
    Another example of making the most important fiscal or policy decisions with long term implications from a position of haste and indecisive impotence.
    August should get real interesting.

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  126. Stuck in a bad TRX position for 3 weeks now, hoping to break even and move on.. may just put this out of mind for a few months and hope they start a gold dividend.

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  127. anyone got live link to listen to bernanke ?

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  128. @● WTF?

    Really cant wait for the new site!...

    All the freaks are out today..

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  129. woooahh.. am I going nuts?

    wasnt there just a post here a second ago from someone saying 'we are legion' ????

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  130. ● said...
    WE ARE ANONYMOUS

    WE ARE LEGION
    June 14, 2011 2:27 PM

    Does anyone else see this ● post disappearing and re-appearing randomly over the last 30 minutes?

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  131. WTI going higher still... really peaved I closed that yesterday!

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  132. @H thanks, I thought it was me!

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  133. http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/

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  134. LOL, Happy, you are 100% correct! I gladly paid the higher price. GL. jd.

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  135. I haven't but believe you H.

    Still looking for someone to say the /board on 4chan where this site gets attention.

    Bernanke's words will be on Bloomberg TV.

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  136. Just sitting around and waiting for Turd
    To see if the new site is all that I've heard

    Do you think it has real-time chatting, or not?
    And I've heard the new foyer was sponsored by Sprott!

    Do we get pretty charts for an eager TurdNation?
    Or do the delays mean it's in backwardation?

    Will we have a cool button we can click for "Ignore"
    to weed out MARAdonna, Trinity, and more?

    I confess I don't know, but here's hoping that-
    There's a TurdStore where I can buy a nice yellow hat.


    -sorry, getting a little stir-crazy.

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  137. Yeah H, I saw it too, I also saw "Timothy Geithner" begging for someone to lend him some money, the post kept changing the wording every time I refreshed and then it disappeared completely.

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  138. Benny talking about "severe disruptions" and the "special role of the dollar" based on the CNBC preview

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  139. Live stream of benny: http://www.cnbc.com/id/24596546

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  140. Bernanke: Don't play politics with debt ceiling


    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-dont-play-politics-with-debt-ceiling-2011-06-14-1432410?link=MW_home_latest_news

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The debt limit is "the wrong tool" for the "important job" of lowering the federal budget deficit, said Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. Nothing should be done to shake the confidence of investors in the willingness of the U.S. government to pay its bills, Bernanke said, in a speech to the Committee for a Respnsible Federal Budget. A delay in raising the debt ceiling could damage the special role of the dollar and Treasurys in global markets over the long term, he said. Bernanke urged the White House and Congress to quickly develop and inact a plan to cut the deficit. Without such a deal, the U.S. is moving ever closer to the point where the deficit could cause a sudden financial crisis, he said.

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  141. Bernanke: Failure to raise debt ceiling could lead to rating downgrades, damage special role of dollar, US treasury market

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  142. yeah NCOT, i stopped out on oil overnight at 37, now have to wait for another dip like you

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  143. Yeah, the dollar is pretty "special" that's for sure.

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  144. oil at 37? must have been some dip!

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  145. Haha, Pining, that poem was awesome. Now, go outside for a walk or something! lol

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  146. Ben has dry mouth. Not a good sign. Basically blaming the politicians which will allow him to say he has no choice when it comes time for QE3.

    And microphone problems. sheesh. Anonymous is legion indeed!

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  147. anyone have an opinion on beef? seems to be going nowhere fast

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  148. Wow, never thought I'd hear the Bernak recognise there's a long run...

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  149. @ Kurt, I'm a big fan of it in a bun, with cheese....

    If you throw a cheeseburger, it will go fast, a big mac however, wont go as far as it will fall apart in flight...

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  150. hippocratic oath??

    What's that got to do with the price of fish?

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  151. I'm watching Bernanke and he sounds shaky and looks like he's shitting a brick.
    I realize he's having some microphone problems, but this isn't a confident looking man at the moment.
    What I'm hearing from him is the beginning of the Fed. speak that is saying how poorly the economy is still doing at this point. No kidding.

    He's laying the rationale for QE3 or whatever it will be called by reminding us how fragile things still are. I don't think he'll announce anything but he's laying the groundwork.

    The debt ceiling is now being mentioned and the scare tactic seeds for further monetary stimulation are being planted into the MSM's mind and into our's shortly.

    He's painting a bleak picture and planting seeds is what I hear.

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  152. Holy cow. He's schooling politicians on what a credible plan would look like! I think he's dumping.

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  153. " History makes clear that failure to put our fiscal house in order will erode the vitality of our economy, reduce the standard of living in the United States, and increase the risk of economic and financial instability."

    Kind of ironic, coming from the enabler/enforcer of said erosion, reduction, risk-enhancement and destabilization, no?

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  154. Any recovery that can be derailed by an event is not a true recovery.

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  155. In Greece the economic commitee of the ruling patry will study and discuss the new antipopular laws soon to be voted in order to get the next tranche of EU-IMF money.
    2 members of the goverment left the party and maybe 3-5 others are thinking of doing the same.
    The "furious" population protesting and gathering by the thousants these last weeks out of the parliament building are planing a blockade tommorrow of the parliament andgreat numbers of police are mobilized to avert this outcome and ensure access to the parliament building as tommorrow there is a big general strike too.
    By the way,many members of the parliament mostly of the ruling party recieve documents signed by groups of disatisfied citizens that they face the accusation of greatest treason by the people if the sign the new measures.

    June 14, 2011 2:45 PM

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  156. S&P 1295 and I am buying miners.

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  157. It has been refreshing to see silver do the leading today :)

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  158. YESSS!! Can't Wait! Thanks Turd!

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  159. Saaaweeet! I'll be feeding the Turd with some juicy fiat as soon as it's live.

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  160. What a bad joke, what changed to make the stock market such a great investment? Or is it just the HFTs piling in, and tomorrow or the next day they will pile out just as fast?

    No such thing as long term financial planning anymore, it's pump, dump, BTFD and hope for a hail mary pass to make money before the next hammer comes down.

    Cripes, I'm tired of this.

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  161. Is anybody thinking of shorting the S&P after this run up back to 1300 levels? I expect it to retest, maybe climb slightly over, 1300 then roll over. If we're lucky, all the way down to support at 1250?

    Thoughts?

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  162. No such thing as long term financial planning anymore, it's pump, dump, BTFD and hope for a hail mary pass to make money before the next hammer comes down.

    Cripes, I'm tired of this.

    -------------------------

    Yes it does get tiring, and timing is key. Its not suppose to be easy. This is why acculimating PM's and sitting has its advantages. But then you would be bored and right back in trading lol. Yes we all feel the same way at times.

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  163. Thanks Turd. For all you do, this buds' for you~

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  164. Short term chart on silver looking bullish, just like Turd said, I'm back in at $35.50 and I'll be watching $36 to see if we get a short squeeze to $37 before I bail for the summer.

    JNG

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  165. i'm still short spy. this alone is enough to make the markets go to 1400!

    i'm going to short it again if we retest the MAs

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  166. This is setting up for what looks to be a repeat of June 8th-June 9th where silver double bottomed at $36 and got within .20 of $38 around a day later....

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  167. I am holding small short position on small cap stocks, if it S&P goes back to 1325, I will short more.

    Wasn't able to comment for a long time.

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  168. Why, oh, why do I feel like we are the mouse???

    edited: word ver UPPIPSY ( you KNOW I couldn't make that one up!) Ha :D

    editedx2: word ver alikn - Ha

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  169. @Shill

    Thanks, bro, you make a lot of sense. Trying to trade this choppy market is a real learning experience, so I'm trying to keep my positions small, my stops tight, and stay out overnight.... but oh, the pain of lost opportunities. I do have a long term position bought at Turd's bottom #2, and a pool account I don't touch, so some of it is "accumulate and sit on it".

    And yeah, trading is a bit addictive, it's probably one of the most challenging things I've done, and there's always skin in the game to make it very, very real.


    In the clearing stands a boxer
    And a fighter by his trade
    And he carries the reminders
    Of ev'ry glove that layed him down
    Or cut him till he cried out
    In his anger and his shame
    "I am leaving, I am leaving"
    But the fighter still remains

    -Paul Simon

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  170. Exactly Kiwi missed opportunity's happen. But you will have a better chance going forward to try again. Looks like that S&P 1295 may not happen. So maybe this is a good shorting opportunity for you. Were already losing steam...LOAD UP BROTHER.

    Be well :)

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  171. Hello all!

    It feels good to be back in familiar territory. My dog died last night so I was out taking care of it's final journey instead of at home trading this morning.

    Hope everyone fared ok in today's shake and bake action.

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  172. You were right, Ben, I was on the edge of my seat THE ENTIRE TIME!

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  173. ● said...
    WE ARE ANONYMOUS

    WE ARE LEGION
    June 14, 2011 3:50 PM

    Seriously, I am going insane here?
    I can't be the only person seeing this.

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  174. Who will get the honor of being the last and dreaded 200th post?

    Is it me?

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  175. @ H

    Strange. No idea if they're the real Anomynous. But my browser has been on constant refresh (Firefox) today. Not seen that message myself, but they do target financial institutions & stuff. Let's hope they're not targeting Turds launch of his site tonight!

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  176. Has The Next Leg Down Begun? Mastermind Call With James Turk, Gonzalo Lira, and Kip Herriage…

    Over the past 10 days, a flood of deflationary data hit the market which may be signaling the next major leg down has begun…

    * Real Estate has begun its next major leg down, which has been one of the canary’s in the coal mine for the expected “recover”. The canary is now dead.

    * Deutsche Bank cut non-farm payroll job creation from 300,000 to 160,000 in the past two days, and Goldman just dropped it to 100,000 this morning. Previously forecasting unemployment to decrease, they are now expecting it to increase.

    * Belarus has become the first hyper-inflationary casualty of the melt-down as of this week. Full price controls on food have been implemented.

    * The latest PMI numbers have just dropped from 67.6 to 56.6, which is the largest drop since 1980. (PMI is the “Purchasing Manager’s Index” is a broad number used to measure overall manufacturing rates). Manufacturing is slowing, which means demand is slowing, which means revenues are slowing, and layoffs loom.

    * The financial sector is testing its’ 200 day moving average…

    To make sure you are positioned correctly to take advantage of what may be the next big leg down in the market, you owe it to yourself to watch this shocking interview by James Turk, Gonzalo Lira, and Kip Herriage.

    Link

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  177. I think that bot from anonymous WANTS to be last.

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  178. Was todays market action a bull trap?
    Or just a algo program buying on prolonged market weakness and it was a brainless market buying day?
    No real positive economic news to propel the market from what I can see or have read.

    200th?

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