Wednesday, June 8, 2011

The HUI Pukey

You do the HUI Pukey and you screw yourself around. That's what it's all about.

I'm sorry. I don't mean to make light of the losses we all are incurring in the pig miners. I guess we should know better. That's what hurts. When you're dealing with market caps between $500MM and $1B, it doesn't take a lot of dough to manipulate things. Oh boy, there I go again, Mr. Evil Conspiracy is in the house. I guess my simple, obtuse little brain can't figure out a way to explain things so I must rely again upon the "evil conspirators" of The Cartel.

Since I'm such a simpleton, maybe some of the MBAs and PhDs in the audience can explain this one to me: Back in 2009 and 2010, Barrick Gold paid nearly $3B to "buy out" all of the hedges on their books.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/160666-barrick-gold-s-hedge-removal
Apparently, management was so confident that gold was headed higher, they wanted to maximize future profits. They no longer wanted to limit future profits by hedging. At the time, it sure sounded like a great idea. Hmmm. At today's closing price of $44.30, ABX is now at the same price level that it was in November of 2009. Interestingly, in November of 2009, gold traded around $1150. So, in the past 18 months, gold has increased in price by almost 35% yet the now fully-unhedged ABX is unchanged over the same time period. Hmmm. Full disclosure: I do not own a single share of ABX so this is not sour grapes, just an observation and, yes, I know that ABX has a market cap of about $40B.

If Apple can hold the cost of making a MacBook at $400 but, over the course of 18 months, they find that they can increase the retail price of a MacBook from $1150 to $1540, you'd expect their earnings to increase and, with that, a much higher stock price.

If Ford could make a cars for $4000 but, over the course of 18 months, they find that they can increase the retail price of a car from $11,500 to $15,400, you'd expect their earnings to increase and, with that, a much higher stock price.

A miner, however, can hold their costs stable and see the retail cost of the metal skyrocket. Their earnings increase commensurately. What's their reward? Nothing but a bunch of pissed-off shareholders who stomp away in disgust.

Here's a picture of the HUI. You'd think it would find support near 500 but I thought it would stop near 540, too, so what the heck do I know? At this rate, 450 or even 400 may be in the cards.


Lastly, here's just a sampling of some of my favorite miners. There's a oxymoron for you..."favorite miners". Kind of like "favorite punishment" or "most-likable demon". If the PMs have indeed entered their summer doldrums/consolidation, maybe you can put in some stick bids on a good-till-cancelled basis and pick up one of these pigs at a cheap price in a few weeks.





That's it for now. I'm off for more electroshock treatments. More later after I come to. TF

250 comments:

  1. Is now a good time to exchange silver for gold?

    Thanks,
    Grasshopper

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  2. Turd,

    Why own the miners, they're all equities and going to get pushed down like the rest of the market?

    As for something to own, look at Sugar and SGG. Its in rally mode!

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  3. bloody day.....tried to enter in today.....very bloody......hehehhehe....thats the game....dont play it if you don't expect this

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Funny post. :-)

    Historically miner share prices have been more levered to metals prices than the ETFs, but clearly something (or someone) is supressing them this time around. Whether it's the hedgefunds or the EE, who knows.

    The only way I think about the miners (specifically Juniors) right now is that they're lottery tickets. KWN has mentioned several times how in the 1980 parobolic run in the last gold bull market, we saw the mania spread to junior miners. Many went from pennies to hundreds of dollars before the peak.

    Put a few thousand dollars into quality juniors and forget about them for 3 or 4 years. When the current gold bull market peaks, you should see some outsized gains - between now and then, it's just noise.

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  6. The manipulation will end, so I have infinite patience.

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  7. @perl,
    I ran those commands about a month ago. I think I made the right choice, but I wish I had done it two week earlier. BTW, I love Unix.

    @SilverLeaf,
    I agree. That's the way to do it.

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  8. Having sold everything late April, I'm sitting here in cash and stuff waiting for QE3 conviction to put in a bottom I can believe in on the PMs. I'm thinking months rather than weeks now. Seems pointless playing in a summer of sideways action.

    But as the Turd says, the fundamentals are all still there.

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  9. perl makes joke Code the Plumber can appreciate.

    Turd, to add another levity to the pain (Amzingly I've been bled for 20% since we hit silver 36.50 on the way up from 34. Same POS, much different paper value of portfolio) someone sent me the following wordplay that captures the essence of the sentiment:

    Miners boring me again today, I sure wish they'd stop and come up for some air.

    Unfortunately, that was last week, which seems pleasant in retrospect.

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  10. I think the miners are telling us there's a gold correction coming. Just like the silver miners told us the big silver correction was coming.

    Looking for a "D" wave down, as the Smartmoneytracker.com guy says. Gold may be down to 1200 - 1400. Which will be last great buying opportunity before parabolic rise.

    Miners could be telegraphing that pullback. Also, gold's chart just looks like it could have a nice base ( cup ) form here down like 10 - 20%. Would be healthy for the long term uptrend.

    Jus sayin.

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  11. [putting on conspiracy tinfoil hat]

    Wouldn't it be something if the EE are intenionally supressing miners. If I was them, and knew the endgame for fiat was coming, I'd:

    1. Suppress the miners now whils I exit the long equities trade.

    2. Absolutely annihilate the miners on the next market crash.

    3. Plow my ill-gotten gains from front-running QE1 and QE2 into controlling stakes in the miners at the trough.

    4. Let hyperinflation play out. Gold goes to the moon. Miners go to the sun. Everything else goes to hell in a handbasket.

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  12. Better to laugh than cry, I always say. Thanks, Turd.

    I know I have said this before, and it's not my analysis but I buy it, the PM ETF's suck the life out of the miners. When the ETF's eventually get too scary, money will leave them and I believe much of it will likely flow to mining shares. That makes these miners seem like great buys now, but WTFDIK?

    I intend to keep accumulating the miners, even if they look like dogs now, or maybe especially because they do. A few years from now I hope to say with pride, "Yeah, I bought those Endeavor shares when they were less than $8.00!!"

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  13. Read an article today saying that Morgue, BAC, M. Stanley and BlackRock are the top 4 holders of SLV now.

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  14. TF... let that comment from Perl back. It was basically geek for "drop all miners, get physical, sit at home" It wasn't anything actually malicious nor a bot, just a clever joke (as is the username).

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  15. Just playing devil's advocate here Turd but beginning of September ABX was worth $35/share. Then ran up to $55/share through middle of May...57% return to that point, just saying.

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  16. can someone point me to a good resource other than zerohedge on this opec situation?

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  17. Important to note that article is from 2009, not 2010. $10 difference in share price between the 2 Septembers.

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  18. Sorry that was end of April they were up to $55, then fell off with the PMs.

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  19. Code: Oops, sorry. Bad Turd.
    Perhaps perl can repost it.

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  20. That's fine, OC, but my larger point still stands. ABX is unch while gold is UP nearly 35% over the same time period.

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  21. Re: Miners - things to consider

    (1) Costs have in some cases increased - energy, etc. needed to mine and refine.

    (2) Environmental/political backlash has been an increasing problem in many producing countries.

    (3) There has been a massive and profitable hedge trade long metal, short miners.

    (4) Assumptions on metals prices used by analysts to predict/forecast future earnings lags the actual price in a rising market, affecting earnings estimates given to broker clients and investing public.

    (5) When prices are high on the product, miners are actually incentivized to mine the lower quality ore, which would not be sufficiently profitable as when prices are lower. This artificially inflates the reported cost to produce each ounce as compared to what it would have been, and impairs the perceived leverage to price.

    (6) We're in that seasonal period.

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  22. continued from last thread;
    I'm pretty sure that cnbc.com will post a clip of the interview with Jim Rogers. I personally didn't find it to be very revealing. Pretty much what Turdites already know...

    CNBS sez; Sell until we know Bernanke's next move. Might be good advice...for a change.

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  23. GOLD:XAU ratio now past the Helicopter Ben Zone and now into the WTF Zone.

    http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=92028

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  24. speaking of miners - here are the ones I have been holding and paying no attention to:

    TLR - I bought this before I knew any better but still have it. Anyone have any idea if this will every go anywhere?

    ANV - I bought it at $18.41, so I don't care a lot about fluctuations. However, would have been nice to sell at the peak and buy back (on all of these, of course!)

    SLW - bought at $25.25

    GG - More recent buy at $45.68

    as to today I think those OPEC guys saved me but I have been skittish since things plunged late last night so sold my short term oil already. Overall things are Ok I think. I have decided to dump my silver with a small profit - I bracked it with a sell at $37 and a stop at $36.7 so I expect it to go soon.

    I also dumped copper for with a small eked out profit too risky now.

    Thanks for the Corn advice I have that September Corn so it trades at a different price. I will watch the July corn and sell my Sept. when it looks to start peaking. Still have the beef at a new small loss - but does not seem to be going anywhere.

    Anyone understand these Index futures? Here is what I see - the full contracts appear to thinly trade and I see a lot of trades on the minis - are they different from the PM minis?

    JoeKa - I think Penag is real close to Singaporee (Penang)

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  25. #!/usr/bin/perl

    foreach $miner (@miners) {
    `rm -rf $miner`:
    }

    push(@stack, $ASEs);

    exit 0;

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  26. CookieMonster, OPEC does not control the price of oil, the elite shadow government does. No greater proof was there than in July 2008 when old man cooky preacher Lindsey Williams predicted that oil would drop to $50/barrel by the end of the year when it was $150/barrel and there seemed to be no end in site to the price of gas.

    Williams has predicted that the ME crisies will spread throughout all those countries until Saudi Arabia is the last to fall, at which point the price of oil will go through the roof. This along with the disintegrating dollar will be the final nail in the coffin for the American currency sovereignty.

    The man drones on and on at times and often repeats himself and sometimes says he said things he didn't say but when he comes out with a specific prediction with a timetable it usually happens. His prediction is death of dollar, $3,000 gold, $75-100 silver, and opening of American oil fields by end of 2012.

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  27. HAHAHA! Cute "Perl script". And, IMHO - good advice on what do with the miners. Then:

    #!/usr/bin/perl

    foreach $pop (@ASEs) {
    `rm -rf $$$`:
    }

    goto(@stack, $localbar);

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  28. Turd, the Miners will set up beautifully by fall. Sell puts under them and start accumulating them at a current discount.

    $45 will be the price to grab them in Agust/September.

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  29. As Jim Sinclair says; the miners need to pay good dividend and gold to their shareholders and they will lose their shorts. The long physical gold short paper miner game lose attraction when the game becomes long physical gold short physical gold...

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  30. Correct OC15.....OPEC is a convenient pawn for the group that runs it all.....right now oil is a currency......its being ping ponged by the traders and the small group you refer to are reaping billions in profit as the "little people" are destroyed......if it weren't true you could laugh at the irony of it all...the stupid peeps think its the "arabs" or Opec or the Muslims....hehehhehhehe........they are sooooo easy to delude.

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  31. In the old days if you wanted to participate in the rise in gold or silver, you bought the stocks of miners. Now, all that money that would have gone into the stocks, is off in derivatives and indexed funds - side bets that have no use to the real economy.

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  32. Btw the "person" that Kooky Lindsey Williams was connected too was a CEO of an oil Co....but HIS education came from a guy inside the "Company" and I don't mean a Fortune 500 company

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  33. Can anyone tell me why the gold ticker hasn't moved for over half an hour?

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  34. Hoping someone can help me.. I watch the dollar with DX futures. Problem is DX futures close from 2pm-5pm - so i have about a 2 hour window where I don't see what the dollar's doing.

    I'm relatively new to this stuff. Where would be the best place to get a live streaming Dollar price during those hours. I trade on Interactive Brokers. Any other futures symbol that will give me the live price during these hours?

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  35. @Mart

    The gold market closes from 5:15pm - 6 pm EST. It's back now.

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  36. Dx futures close 2pm-5pm my time btw. 5PM-8PM EST. Someone help! :(

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  37. ##yeah yer speaking my language too lolz
    #
    #!/bin/bash
    cd /bedroom/wallsafe/
    /usr/sbin/fondle -f ase.sh
    cd /office/desk/
    wget http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com
    /sbin/iptables -A INPUT -p udp -s TROLLS -j IGNORE
    echo "Thank you Turd!";
    exit

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  38. What the miners need to do, at least the large ones, is to pay out meaningful dividends. Short sellers are loathe to short stocks with meaningful dividends as it complicates things for them.

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  39. Never forget that mining stocks are stocks first, PMs second. They ALWAYS take a dump when the broader market is down. It's just dumb algos selling off everything.

    The stock market has been down 7 consecutive days, it isn't surprising that mining stocks are down too. Gold and silver are holding up quite well with the overall market selloff and the dollar doing it's periodic levitation on Euro worries.

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  40. I've been waiting for my TRE target of $6.65-$6.75 for a long time. It was hard to buy with the extremely negative sentiment but, I loaded the boat. I did the same with EGO/$13.99 and NGD/$8.99 today, feels like a smack down of physical gold and silver are coming, I could lose a lot. I BTFD though because I believe the patterns that I see will complete a lot higher given time. A rounded bottom/bowl for TRE since last October, same for EGO and NGD that started this year. I could easily be proven wrong, we're all flying IFR at this point, the only sane thing to do is look at the long term formations and fly VFR ON TOP. Good Luck!

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  41. Hey my lindo broker is trying to talk me out of buying a december silver futures contract, he says thats going too long, I think he's just upset he wont be getting as much commissions because I wont be flipping contracts as often, no straight answer from him as to why, I just want to be long and strong and maybe take advantage of a little backwardation, and just not that into July anymore. Do you guys thing he's pulling my chain and just trying to milk out more commissions? I don't see the problem am I missing something?

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  42. @ART LOMAX re: off topic post
    Missouri dam cascade failure link: pretty much scares the hell out of me! This would be an inland 'tsunami' on a scale similar to the Japanese disaster recently would it not? How much credence do you place on this source of information???

    BTW - yes you are too - and modest =b

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  43. I heartily agree with the sentiment expressed around index ETF's draining liquidity from miners (or oil producers or...)

    When I first joined this board I owned Silver/Gold in vehicles like CEF and I had a few mining stocks. Asked a few good members about stocks that DD might show good to invest in.

    Quickly realized I already owned several of the suggested miners and that I didn't really want to do more DD and then wait wait wait. What I really wanted to do was participate in the commodity price.

    Futures have been around forever and they don't really really help the market unless one is part of the supply, distribution or consumption.

    Leveraged indexed ETF's make futures simple. That's where my play money went.

    I kept most of the miners I owned, and bought a couple more. Talking on other bulletin boards it's clear that most who are into ETF's don't bother to invest in the supply side companies.

    Bummer.

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  44. I think it is liquidity perhaps? - these longer out futures don't trade as much. However, I don't really know the answer for sure.

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  45. If I were half as smart as I think I am I would have been short miners from the highs.

    I think the answer is that all the ETF's have drawn retail investor money away from the miners and that makes it even easier for the hedge funds to manipulate mining share prices.

    The creators and custodians of these etf's most likely planned on this being a side benefit for their cause. (manipulation of the pricing mechanism)

    The miners will bounce but until the etfs no longer exist, I really don't think they will yield the returns we were all expecting.

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  46. Just tried to buy 4 contracts at 1536 when the last was 1536 and it jumped to 1537.3 right away. Indicator? I don't know about that but just thought I would share.

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  47. @All

    Re: Mining Shares

    My observation:

    Many of the mining ETFs dumped a lot of their shares several weeks back. I think they are trying to get them back, cheaper. Take a look at the institutions holding shares in your mining companies. For example, compare Van Eck's holdings in each mining company over the last couple of weeks. Try using mffais or some other service with details of the institutions buying.

    Phantom

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  48. Santa's KWN interview has been posted.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/8_Jim_Sinclair.html

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  49. This might help the market a little -
    "Here It Comes: Obama Considering Another Fiscal Stimulus"

    link to article on ZH

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  50. From ZH

    President Barack Obama’s advisers have discussed seeking a temporary cut in the payroll taxes businesses pay on wages amid economic reports suggesting the recovery is slowing, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The idea, in preliminary stage of discussion, is among several being debated in the administration with the aim of boosting hiring, the people said on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The unemployment rate in April rose to 9.1 percent, the highest level this year, and the economy is a main focus of the political debate in Washington.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-it-comes-obama-considering-another-fiscal-package

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  51. @HappyIntheWoods;

    I tried the miner thing for a while, too. Had some decent success overall, especially with Hecla and NovaGold. I had already tried 2X ETFs and lost some money. They are great for short-term trading, but after a short while, they get skewed from accumulated settling bias. The combination of those two factors indicated that things like fundamentals meant less-and-less, and timing meant more-and-more. That was my experience, anyway, but WTFDIK. Like you, though, I wanted more exposure to the spot price - i.e., a more "pure" relationship. I bought in at $15.35 last year and sold the majority yesterday at $37.15 for a 141% return. Came to believe that (a) the CME action on margin requirements, (b) the recent spate of consistent, persistent beatdowns below $40 on a daily basis by the "invisible hand" and (c) the lack of clarity on Bernanke's intentions was enough for me to go to cash and wait for a pulback in gold, which has a better looking slope than silver. Beside, "Bulls make money and Bears make money, but Hogs get slaughtered". Best of luck, and much prosperity! Just do your DD (due diligence)!

    BTW, I've been listening to Bill Gross and getting "engrossed", you might say. I realize that he is a Wall St. insider, but his abandonment of U.S. bonds is really "putting his money where his mouth is".

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  52. I guess that's what the guy meant when he referred to derivatives as "weapons of mass financial destruction". Screws up the markets and capital allocation.

    So gold and silver are in demand and up in price, but instead of money flowing into miners' stock, driving up the price and giving the miners access to more capital to expand their mining operations, all the investment cash goes off into side bets that are basically useless as far as the real economy goes.

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  53. Yup, that's our biggest problem. Payroll taxes. That'll fix it all!
    I think it would be great if barry just ran on the platform of "fuck it. we're screwed." and then he just rips on banksters and tells us what really happened at area 51.

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  54. Cookie

    Generally, The Oil Drum is a great place to stay on top of all things oil related.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/

    I like this one too.

    http://energybulletin.net/

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  55. Platinum and palladium are both holding up pretty well so far. Interesting.

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  56. @atlee

    Your post makes me lose all hope in the mining shares. I'm down close to 10% in my holdings in the last month. So no hope of skyrocketing shares prices?

    "The miners will bounce but until the etfs no longer exist, I really don't think they will yield the returns we were all expecting."

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  57. MBA (1991) Here:

    Buy 'em when others are pukin' 'em up (not yet) - Late July or Early August. Plenty of time. patience, grasshoppers.

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  58. Turd,
    thanks for your ongoing chart guidance on oil. It's helping a lot, offsetting some of my losses on the mining stocks

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  59. Thanks TF for addressing the mining stocks' tumble. Nothing less than a blood bath. Which will end...?

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  60. Boone Pickens was just on "Kudlow" on CNBS. He sez that the days of under-$100/barrel oil are over. I still think that - if OPEC dissolves or otherwise goes away, The Saudis and their regional allies will produce like hell, and the rest of the producing counties must either follow or get out of the way (and miss the party). Who knows? Maybe we could get lucky and have an oil price war. I seriously doubt it. But I also think that any drops will be short-lived. We need the price of oil to get high enough for the natural gas switchover will be cost-effective. Once that is accomplished, we will FINALLY be somewhat energy self-reliant, and the !@#$%^&*()_ OPEC members can kiss our groady-smellin' a**es!

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  61. jpm and golman sucks miner naked shorting is my best virtual conspiracy theory guess, how else do they accomplish a perfect trading record=by manipulation and thievery just ask gadaffi about his 1 billion dollar theft by goldman jewsuckers

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  62. I've been accumulating sandstorm at all 10 cent increments under a dollar. It could drop to a buck and below if stocks or gold get hit a little like often happens in summer. It should earn a few cents a share this year and has growth, which gives it a really good forward PE for a royalty. At these metals prices (I stopped stacking at $10 silver and $500 gold) this stock for longer term is like stacking for me now. TRE is a speculation vehicle for me along with SLW options.

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  63. Qe addiction. Dave Chapelle style
    http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=xI91d75nOPw

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  64. A couple of days ago I posted that Germany closing their nuclear facilities was the most bullish news for silver in a long while. Here now is a follow up:

    (Kitco News) -- Silver will continue to be used for solar energy, with the amount of metal used in photovoltaics potentially doubling to 100 million ounces by 2015 from 50 million last year, says the Silver Institute. Photovoltaics made from silicon are often coated with a thin film of silver to maximize light absorption and capture active components, says the Institute. “Silver, because it has the highest efficiency as a conductor of both electrical and heat energy, is also the major component of circuitry elements that transfer the energy to storage reservoirs or to devices making direct use of the photovoltaic-produced energy,” says the Silver Institute. “Silver is used in paste at the contact points of cells in the photovoltaic arrays. These arrays are then mounted on a substrate, and from these contact points, silver wires and inks provide the most efficient transfer network to the ultimate destination.” The Silver Institute is an international association of miners, refiners, fabricators and wholesalers of silver and silver products.

    http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets20110608.html

    If Japan also goes this route, which many believe they will, silver prices are going to go crazy.

    Phantom

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  65. To the Perlites. Sorry I missed that. My Olde Language is FORTRAN IV.

    With respect to precious metals all I can think of is:

    $CALL RANDU

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  66. Now that I'm happily long oil, I'd like to hear any other Turdites' views on the Rev Lindsay "Whistling" Williams. Read your views kliguy38 and OC15, thank you for those.

    (What is that psychological trait called when you go looking for stuff that backs up what you want to believe in? Is it confirmation bias?)

    Sorry if this has all been discussed ad nauseum before.

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  67. TRE expert please

    I just listened to the Sinclair KWN interview. First of all, I've stated before that I'm TA focused so I don't have the FA chops that many of you do. Actually the most FA I've done is reading this blog and look at the posted links. I did not know Sinclair was chairman of TRE. I also only knew him as Santa from this blog. I had never heard of him before.

    What I know now is he is a bad ass. He completely "gets it". I know nothing of his company or it's prospecting prospects. What I also know is the TRE chart looks great (including the 200 day bounce today). In TA, it is easiest to isolate individual strength when a market or sector is weak. It is easiest to isolate strength during overall weakness. The chart for TRE is STRONG while the other mining shares are not holding up. Especially givin the fact that it is a small company less than $1B market cap.

    Some questions:
    What do their mining prospects look like?
    Do they have any big home runs in the pipeline?
    how far along are they?
    What is the political climate where they have mines?
    When will they be cash flow positive?
    Their cash balance looks good, but is their a high risk of dilution if they need more cash because of their burn rate?
    What is their peak EPS potential with say $2,000 gold?

    I've provided what I can contribute to this blog, I hope a tender soul can help me with my area of weakness.

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  68. Did a (for me) complex trade this afternoon. Short stocks a few months out and long gold through next winter. Also puts that should pay if au goes to the mid 1400s by August. Sold waaay out of money puts on some stocks I would add to core holdings at the strike prices to help finance it. Probably outsmarting myself. Really I wanted a short DOW type position that wouldn't kill me if QE would happen soon (which would surprise me).

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  69. levelheaded . tre,pzg,jag,exk,gpl,slw,scco and probably a slew of other miners appear set up for upswings but lets not forget they can continue sliding oversold all the way to the bottom also just as easy

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  70. I'm seeing lots of despair. Understandable despair, without question. But we have to note this despair is occuring at key HUI levels. I like the odds for anyone going long GDX here.

    G

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  71. LevelHeaded,

    I asked similar questions about TRE earlier this year. A contributor here by the name of Pat seemed very knowledgeable about it. (Where are you, Pat?).

    Below is a copy and paste of what he posted:

    Feb 8, 2011:

    Market Sniper aka Dutch, who hangs out at Slope of Hope, put his own money into going to Tanzania, hired a geological eng, and has a lot of connections for info as well. He shares his deep DD and has been going so since I got into TRE months and months ago. He has called the shots so accurately, well, the man does his homework. Once I finished my own DD, I was convinced Santa has got it all going; has every base covered; and TRE will be the grand slam of grand slams. It truly will be his Grand Finale.

    [The short interest is $6M shares or 13.5 days, ONE ENTITY, and they have him in their sites.]

    Now to the big short; i'll paste this post...

    Out of Canada. I know the entity and who runs it. but it is a fund. They are financed by ABX. They target companies to take down, push to the wall and acquire for pennies. Not gonna work with TRE. Actually the stock is invulnerable to such manipulation. We have no forward book to get development money, no real debt (personal loan from JS gor 22M..no due date and no interest). Good luck to ABX. JS hates them more than the devil himself. ABX is the GS of the mining sector.

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  72. Level Headed,

    In the interview, Santa was very strongly of the view that producing mining need to pay dividends in gold, rather than cash. I have definitely seen it stated (can't remember where) that Santa intends to do exactly that when TRE starts producing. Another view I've read is that Santa wants to bring on production at a steady pace over the next few years, as he knows that the gold price is going up, so he'll be getting better - and growing - earnings if he gradually phases in production rather than brings it all on line ASAP.

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  73. i meant to say "producing miners", not "producing mining"

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  74. @rage
    Thanks boss

    CHARTS:
    tre strong like bull
    pzg early to the 200 and early out, I like that
    jag yuck
    exk 35% pullback, no thanks
    gpl 50% pullback, no thanks
    slw leading down, maybe something wrong with this one
    scco yuck

    TRE for me, PZG maybe

    ReplyDelete
  75. RagedMax,

    Bob Chapman agrees with your take. The coordination between the EE banks & cooperative hedgies, and the extent of the effort, is now the equal of the scamery we're so familiar with in the paper metal markets.

    Bob also says that the reason all that "Institutional" money we've all waited for but never seen is being directed away from the miners by Fund "advisers", very much on purpose.
    Want to guess who those advisers are? Goldman, the Morgue, and a whole host of gold-hating fiat monkeys.

    Professor Doomfinger and all those who preach patience right now have it right. The battle ebbs, the battle flows. We'll live to fight another day.

    Stay thirsty my Turdish friends. And just wait for the next blowout. Of something. Somewhere.
    It won't be long. Speaking of Professor Doom: Clif High will be on Veritas radio with Mel Fabergas this Friday, 6/10. New shows are usually uploaded late on Friday night.

    Here's a preview clip:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07ixfnJRSNI&feature=uploademail

    ReplyDelete
  76. @Turdle GG
    Many thanks.

    Do you know when they will be producing in big quantities?

    ReplyDelete
  77. Can anyone explain to a simple Turdle like me,

    why does Santa say it is rational for gold to attempt to balance the international balance sheet of the US?

    ReplyDelete
  78. LH:

    "In December 2010, the Company acquired a 55% interest in the advanced-stage Buckreef Gold Mine Re-Development Project which could see commercial production in less than 30 months. Two other projects, Kigosi and Lunguya, host surface gravel deposits with significant gold content that appear amenable to commercial development on a staged basis. The economic viability of these deposits will first be established with test plants employing gravity separation techniques that can be expanded for commercial purposes by adding on new production modules. "

    Source:
    http://www.tanzanianroyaltyexploration.com/s/OurBusiness.asp

    ReplyDelete
  79. Just got to watching Ira's update. In it, he mentions that he just put out a speacial gold report, and to call for a copy...

    I found it on kitco... :)

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Epstein/jun082011.html

    Points out a trend in gold from Aug-Dec. Now I'll have my face in the charts for a while to see if I notice anything for silver...

    ReplyDelete
  80. The effectiveness of the manipulation will end before the manipulation. All you have to remember is THEY CAN'T PRINT MORE SILVER !!!!
    The majority of the above ground supply will be MIA before the Sheeple wake up. If you make regular investments in Silver or Gold like a savings account, you will be miles ahead of the majority of the people in the world.
    In an earlier post someone linked to James Turk and a presentation he made.
    If you have not viewed, it is worth the time. (about 15 min.) One of the main points was the appreciation of gold against ALL the major currencies. it really is quite simple. The manipulation is a delay of the inevitable end. If you can change your mindset, the manipulation is gifted oz's @ firesale prices.
    You must always keep in mind that first rule of supply and demand. Eventually when demand outstrips supply, price MUST rise for what you receive in hand.
    Once more I will say that IMO Silver is THE key in ending the Banksters control. A move on the Silver market that completely depletes supply and forces default will drive the price of both silver and gold through the roof. It will also draw back the curtain and expose the truth for all to see. The derivatives will explode. (I doubt anyone here has considered the derivatives) Then the real chaos begins. That will be the most important time in our lives. When the chaos arrives, opportunity for change will arrive as well. And that time will be the decision point for our country. It will be more important than any asset you hold in hand.

    ReplyDelete
  81. @ Diamond

    I am just another guy with an opinion. I may be completely wrong. Please do not lose all hope over something I think. I have made money on the miners in the past. Not as much as I should have and it has been a struggle.

    I am no longer long any of the miners. I took some losses. I am short EXK from 10.15 and again this morning from 8.45 and will short SVM on a good hard rally.

    The mkt character has changed and I dont care what others say, we are in the summer doldrums through the end of July. Leveraged ETF's will show the effect of decay because we are not in a trend. I intend to make that decay work for me by only trading etfs from the short side. if I want to trade a rally from the long side, I will short ZSL. If I want to trade from the short side, I will short AGQ. I am currently short AGQ.

    I fully expect the mkt to be range bound moving back and forth for the next 7 weeks. I would not get excited about a big rally. We are not going anywhere until August unless some earth shattering event occurs like QE3 is announced.

    Don't lose hope over anything I say. Do think about a strategy, whether it is marrying your positions, hedging with options or lightening up.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Turdle,
    I think it is something like this:
    The entire gold inside Fort Knox will eventually equal all the dollars in existence.

    (All dollars) / (Fort Knox Gold) = (eventual price of gold).

    I don't think this is exactly right, but it is something like that.

    ReplyDelete
  83. It boggles my mind that the minders aren't doing better. In the latest conference call by ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP., they said that every $1 rise in the spot price of silver equates to $0.05 in EPS. Silver has remained above it's lows in May and yet the miners have dropped 15-30%

    ReplyDelete
  84. @uptofreedom

    I get his reports. anyone who wants it should not be afraid to call them. it is free and they will not pitch you.

    What happens to gold, happens to silver. The ratio may change but I really think the 39 to 42 range is it for a while.

    Silver has 2 personalities. It is first an industrial metal and second a store of value surrogate for gold. (poor man's gold). When gold goes seasonal, then unless the industrial demand is red hot, so does silver.
    That is not in the report. I threw that in for free.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @atlee

    Thank you for your thoughts. I'm still a newbie at all of this. Unlike you (for now, anyway), I am long my miners (EXK, AG, PVG, CLZ, THM, SVM, GPL). Foolishly, perhaps, I am hanging on to my AGQ, having lost 50% in it after the May crash, in hopes that, one day, it will get back to 370.

    But I'm also 65% in PHYZZ, which feels better.

    I hope to learn how to trade options this summer.

    ReplyDelete
  86. can someone give me turd's email? I used to know it but cant find it on the site.

    ReplyDelete
  87. @Level

    Also, Sinclair has his own PM blog: http://www.jsmineset.com/

    And, if you want a good daily summary of PM FA there's http://silverandgoldcoinblog.com/

    The latter was the site that lead me to TF.

    Did you include SVM in your analysis? If not, you may want to. They operate in China.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Titus,
    but why is that so? Why should the value of the US's gold equal the value of the US's external debt? I know Santa says that makes the external balance sheet actually balance, but why should that happen? Is it the market's reaction to the loss of faith in the US economy and the market saying that the only way that it will allow the US to keep its USD external debt is if it keeps at home (Fort Knox) an amount of gold that is equal in value to the amount of the external debt?

    I can see an argument for that in a world where sovereign gold holdings meant something, but that time seems to have passed (although the Chinese, Russians, etc. seem keen on bringing it back, but it will take a long time)

    ReplyDelete
  89. Turd's e-mail:

    tfmetalsreport@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  90. @atlee

    tfmetalsreport@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  91. @ Old Navy

    thank you

    @ Diamond

    Let me just say one more thing. I do expect big things in the precious metals after August and going into next year. I think $70 silver by year end beginning nxt year and $2200 gold. So marrying your positions may work out for you.

    ReplyDelete
  92. @Titus & Turdle

    Of course, we don't know how much gold is in Ft. Knox. As Ron Paul has pointed out, it has not been audited in over a half century. Hmmmmm.

    ReplyDelete
  93. @oldnavy

    SVM, yikes no. That chart looks like my senior pictures from High School. I do wish you well if it's your baby.

    ReplyDelete
  94. @Level

    LOL

    No, I don't own any ATM, but you never can tell...

    ReplyDelete
  95. Buying op soon. Maybe when London market opens?

    ReplyDelete
  96. @Turdle,

    Mike Maloney goes over this in a video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AzUQI_HQXGM&feature=related

    I'm not sure this is exactly what Santa is talking about, but I think it is close.

    In 1980, there was a period of time where all the gold in Fort Knox was worth all of the dollars in existence. At that point we could have gone back to a gold standard.

    The idea is that this will repeat and the total value of the Fort Knox gold will again reach the total value of all the dollars. So gold will have to rise quite a bit in order to cover all the fiat.

    ReplyDelete
  97. @oldNavy,

    Santa was saying that it does not really matter if the gold is there or not. "People" will assume that it is there for the purposes of the calculation. I'm not saying this is true, just repeating what Santa said in the interview.

    ReplyDelete
  98. @atlee

    wasn't sceered, just wanted to read it asap. hate jumping through hoops...

    I'm hip to the doldrums, sounds like my "build an AGQ position and let it ride" strategy is a no go if we're gonna be going sideways for a while. Thinkin' I might abandon that till august, and build a DGR play instead...

    However, you mentioned red hot industrial demand... Phantom posted a snip from kitco regarding silver use in solar panels. Ind. demand very well could get red hot, no?

    ReplyDelete
  99. @LevelHeaded

    BTW, don't let the URL for
    http://silverandgoldcoinblog.com/ fool you, it offers a compilation of PM-related news much broader than just coins.

    ReplyDelete
  100. @Titus
    Why should all of "our" gold equal all of the "world's" fiat? Shouldn't it be all the world's fiat for that to be logical?

    ReplyDelete
  101. I meant shouldn't all of the worlds gold equals all of the worlds fiat.

    ReplyDelete
  102. @LevelHeaded

    What entry levels look plausible from a pure TA perspective on TRE

    Here???
    6.40~
    6.20-25
    Think maybe it could retest 5.50-60 area?
    Or would you wait for a breakout above prior highs?

    Thanks in advance =]

    ReplyDelete
  103. Titus Andronicus,

    thanks for that video. It's making sense to me now.

    ReplyDelete
  104. @ kasscoos

    Re: CAD

    If I said CAD at 1.2 it was a typo, I meant 1.02.

    I could easily see USD/CAD at 1.10 longer term, based on better fiscal position of Canada, better financials.

    Above 1.10 I think you start to see things get tough for exporters.

    But for the very short term, I think we could see commodities correct, therefore CAD gets weaker.

    If we see a 2008 style crash, CAD weakens dramatically, for a very short time, as happened in 2008.

    I hope it happens so I can load up on CAD, oil, PMs and stocks too.

    I am sure it will happen at some point, I just don't know if it will be next week or 2 years from now, which makes trading hard, and makes me hedge a lot, such as loading up on CAD every dip, even though I fear one day it will crash lower.

    I could easily see USD/CAD at 98, based on a minor correction, but a 2008 style collapse could see, I dunno, 86 cents?

    I don't use charts, I just pick nice round numbers that sound reasonable to me.

    I know that's not the way anyone else does it, but I have done it for 25 years now, so it works for me.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @ uptofreedom

    Ya I don't know. Solar is still expensive, no one has any money, is it going to amount to enough to have an effect over the doldrums?

    I am not trying to be negative. I want to go back to the good old days starting last August. But it is going to be August again soon. Be in a postion to takeoff with it.

    You know when you are old like me, time goes by very quickly. Cant believe it is already June.

    Man you know your old when your balls tell you it is time to mow the lawn. Rodney Dangerfiedl.

    ReplyDelete
  106. @LevelHeaded,

    I'm just answering a question about what Jim Sinclair said in his interview. You can find it here:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/8_Jim_Sinclair.html

    Also, I posted a link where Mike Maloney discussing the same (or similar) concept. It's above.

    ReplyDelete
  107. @tesla

    Well it kind of matters whether I'm right or TF and his henchman/goon atlee is right about this summer.

    If I'm right, I'm not sure why the 200 day isn't a great spot to buy (aka here)

    If TF is right, I'd hold out for 6.00 and 5.00-5.50 would be a cream dream.

    I don't like the break out theory too much. The reason is I believe we are in a long term secular bull market in PM. So, if you buy the breakout you will just be paying up. Breakout buys make sense if you aren't sure it eventually will go up or if you are riding a momentum play. In this case, I think we are all sure. The question is how "on sale" can you get it? Basically a game of "on sale" chicken.

    Hope that helped.

    ReplyDelete
  108. @titus
    I understand, I just don't get it.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Regarding "buying the breakout" and other views about when to buy gold stocks, Jesse linked to this very interesting Hussman Funds article today. It says that the best time is when gold price divided by XAU index value is 4 or more. Today, it's almost 8.

    The very big caveat, though, is that the article is from Oct 1999, so it pre-dates GLD. Many would say that the "old rules" for gold stocks no longer apply.

    http://www.hussman.net/html/gold.htm

    ReplyDelete
  110. @Tesla,
    I can't vouch for the source of the article I posted regarding the Missouri River flooding. A friend sent this to me today and I wanted to share it, extreme as it is. I usually don't pay much attention to doomsday type articles but this was circulating in the grain trade today and probably contributed to the short covering. The flooding will be real, though, and crop acres will be lost in a year when we need every acre. How many will be lost who knows?

    I hope to get a second opinion from a friend who has a contact in the Corp of Engineers. Will share what I learn.

    ReplyDelete
  111. @Happy,
    You show your age with reference to FORTRAN. Brings back memories of my college days of programming FORTRAN with punch cards.

    ReplyDelete
  112. @LevelHeaded

    Maloney's book, I'm assuming you haven't read it, talks about the history of gold and fiat currencies. He builds the case that fiat currencies always end up getting re-priced to their value in gold. He almost anthropomorphizes gold in the book, saying that it inevitably calls for an accounting when currencies are debased. Historically it seems he's right. So he's hypothesizing that will happen with the USD.

    I'm not sure anyone is going to do such a calculation, I just think we'll see an ever accelerating flight from the dollar and we may be seeing the beginnings of it already. Gold will go up to previously unimaginable prices in USD and silver will go with it, but also with the GSR decreasing at the same time.

    ReplyDelete
  113. @ art lomax
    if you like eastbound n down you will be cracking up this whole film:
    http://www.yourhighnessmovie.net/

    ReplyDelete
  114. As a noob to all this and someone who is "stacking" but too "green" to play the paper game; would I be correct in assuming (Yes,
    I know what ass-u-ming stands for:) that TF's missive about ABX being "flat" is something that is only concerning to someone who trades frequently? In other words, would 100 shares of ABX be a risky buy if one planned on holding it for 5-7 years? I realize there's always a risk of a company going belly up but if AU goes where everyone here thinks it's going, I'm willing to take a risk like that. Thanks Turd and Turdites for a real education.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Turd: agreed that Rickard's analysis is faulted. Rickards said that the FED has power over the banks. Think that Rickards has forgotten who owns the FED - their member banks own the FED. The FED is therefore a straw man created by the member banks to distract you from seeing their puppet strings. These same member banks are in turn owned again by the likes of Rotheschild, Rockerfeller and the queen of England (she doesn't deserve a capital 'Q' after her family's theft of our capital over the centuries).

    To put it more simplistically, Rickards would have us believe that if you put a sock over your hand and run up to someone on the street and have your sock swear at them, that these people would get upset with your socked hand and not you. Sadly this is what most sheeple beleive. Bad sock, bad evil sock! If we could only abolish the sock, then all our problems would just go away.

    Maybe Rickards is thinking of those banks who are not in on the FED party, who are pressured into keeping in line lest they get foreclosed?

    ReplyDelete
  116. @levelHeaded
    @Titus
    If the "Fiat currency" = Gold reserves, then it wouldn't really be fiat currency, would it? Not trying to be a smart-ass but... doesn't that make it a gold-backed currency? Am I understanding the question correctly?

    ReplyDelete
  117. @ Level
    Level said
    "Well it kind of matters whether I'm right or TF and his henchman/goon atlee is right about this summer."

    What a fucking stupid thing to say.
    This isn't a competition.
    You are a bigger dumbass than I thought.

    ReplyDelete
  118. @level

    You misread Turd. He did not say those things were going to happen. He said could and charts looked like. You need to reread his statement.

    You owe Turd an apology. You insult him referring to me as his goon and you should delete that post.

    You insult me because I know you are a phony who tries too hard. You didn't even know what the London fix was and now you are dispensing advice. But I don't care so I ignore you.

    ReplyDelete
  119. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  120. @Cookie,
    Yeah, hate to admit it but I watch it and laugh. I'll have to check out the new movie.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Oh Crap - I hope I'm not stirring shit up Atlee - I said the above with much respect. Didn't see above post while typing - sorry!

    ReplyDelete
  122. @Art Lomax

    Thanks man - That's scary stuff - Let us know what you buddy says.
    Guess we'll all find out soon enough if it's true - YIKES!!!

    ReplyDelete
  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  124. @Telsa

    No worries bro. This has nothing to do with you.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Thanks LevelHeaded

    Without knowing for certain regarding future economic direction I can see and appreciate both bull and bear views.

    I see the 200 day EMA seems to be slightly more relevant than SMA - I will wait to see and hear (a bounce or positive broader market developments) But REALLY like the company - and LOVE the share holder dividend paid in gold concept. I'll scale in a little at a time so I can avoid getting bucked off!

    Thanks very much!

    ReplyDelete
  126. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  127. @ ART - Re Missouri River Dams - NYTimes article 6/7/11
    "'Unprecedented' Summerlong Flood Threatens Missouri River Dams and..."

    http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/06/07/07climatewire-unprecedented-summerlong-flood-threatens-mis-68968.html

    ReplyDelete
  128. @ calum,
    well said. fed acts on behalf of interest of its shareholders, who will bleed the u.s. and the dollar dry, then move onto a new currency they can manipulate.
    i thought dimon's faux-obsequious, pre-planned "confrontation" of ben was the most orwellian, pathetic piece of propaganda i've ever seen. they are trying to obsfucate who's really in charge, and doing a shitty job even at that. as if these guys don't chat on the bat phone all day...

    ReplyDelete
  129. I definitely see downward pressure on equities in various size steps throughout June with cycles up for short durations. Since timing those ping pong gyrations, at least for me, will be very difficult, I am going to be playing the downward trend for the next month or so. I am going to be playing in paper shorting the dow in day or so spurts with limits. I guess its a pretty conservation approach, but the market is so manipulated that trends are hard to believe with a great amount of confidence. My current snapshot says there's nothing supporting prices at these levels for the short term until we start to move out of the summer or Qubed (my new name for Q3) is rolled out in its new format.

    OBummer's program for tax breaks will do exact ZERO....not much original coming from Mr. Hope and Change you can believe in. Even though China's threat to the U.S. about the default is orchestrated PR, it does carry some weight with it. If nothing other than it absolves Congress and the Senate from the repercussions of raising the debt limit...."We had to do it...China said they wouldn't send us anymore trinkets if we didn't pay our interest and raise the limit."

    ReplyDelete
  130. @CookieMonster;
    I'm just an ole country boy, but even I could see through that poor-ass game of hot-potato that Dimon/Bernankster put on today for the cameras today!

    ReplyDelete
  131. What JS says about companies needing to pay dividends is so correct. I remember forum discussions back in the early 2000s where one of the ongoing topics was the great dividends companies paid last time, and would be paying this time around. We knew what the South Africans paid last time, and were confident it would be repeated. Still waiting. It is often said that the major gold and silver companies have some of the worst management of any sector. So true. It won't be the majors that will launch the next bull phase.

    ReplyDelete
  132. s'cuse me - "put on today for the cameras today"? Must have been that last drink, with subsequent trip to the"department of redundancy department"...duuuhhhh

    ReplyDelete
  133. Thanks Yoni. Good link.

    Grains quiet tonight, crop report tomorrow morning 7:30 CDT. No one sure what the gov't will say, they could come out with updated acre numbers, stock reductions, and shake the market up or could be a smoke and mirror report to keep the corn market calm. We'll know in a few hours. Always risky taking a position into a report.

    I hear reports of users paying huge premiums over July futures for cash corn. (like PM's)
    So futures need to catch up with the cash market. Trade cautiously in this market. GLTA.

    Thanks all for the PM comments. Goodnight.

    ReplyDelete
  134. New blog piece from John Hathaway at KWN. More discussion of the Dow-Gold Ratio.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/6/9_Hathaway_Confirms_Gold_to_Trade_in_the_Five_Digits.html

    ReplyDelete
  135. Here It Comes: Obama Considering Another Fiscal Stimulus



    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-it-comes-obama-considering-another-fiscal-package

    ReplyDelete
  136. @atlee

    You ARE a goon and a henchman and a bully. You can't bully me like you bully others.

    I owe no one an apology and I'm not misreading the "roadmap" in "It's Finally Over. Now What?"

    You called me a fraud and a phony. I am neither. London fixing can eat my balls. I trade TA not (london fixing FA). I trade stocks, S&P futures, dollar, cotton, metals, where ever the action is. Right now I believe it to be in the metals and so here I am.

    Trading is a competition. Dispensing advice is not, I only want to help people.

    ReplyDelete
  137. @atlee
    RE "What a fucking stupid thing to say.
    This isn't a competition."

    It's pretty obvious to most but I was pointing out how the buy targets would be different under 2 likely possiblities (responsible advice I think). 1 that I think is more likely and 1 that TF thinks is more likely (if only 70%/30% from each of us). You're just the monkey in the middle.

    ReplyDelete
  138. @Levelheaded, @atlee

    Gentlemen, enough! Practice peace, let it drop, "he hit me first" is not sufficient reason to continue this. Both of you are creating a distructive force in a constructive blog.

    I'm not the Turd, I'm not the moderator, I have no authority except for sweet reason.

    Please just stop.

    ReplyDelete
  139. has the ecb info that there will be no hike been leaked? so much hype that there'd be a rate hike.
    or is this a raid because there will be a rate hike?
    wow. i am eating fed word salad.
    it's so funny to read the blogs on ecb code words:
    monitor carefully - no rate hike
    watch aggressively = rate hike
    eschew obsfucation

    ReplyDelete
  140. Level head is agent procokator......a.k.a. douche bag

    ReplyDelete
  141. Peace please to all - its been a bumpy ride this last several weeks!

    I LOVE this blog and I have great respect for those with the 'Jalapenos' to
    stick their neck out and take a stance regarding the future of PM's and related investments. Thank You TURD FERGUSON and ALL posters.

    I hate to see y'all disliking each other - I understand - but hate it just the same. Maybe tomorrow we could turn over a new leaf and forget, forgive, and move forward towards our common goal of making this the best PM blog on planet earth. I think Turd would like that too.

    Good night all - Thanks all

    ReplyDelete
  142. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1307649600.php. Jim willies latest....for your late night read, enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  143. Just heard on BBC that OPEC at a deadlock on production output. So crude should get a bid or has it already? Haven't been on the ball as I'm still on vacay.

    ECB should be maintaining rates and I sense we could be retesting Silver new lows for the week by today.

    If it hits 37 at all today, it's a short opportunity.

    Wordver: distabl - the markets are certainly distabl !

    ReplyDelete
  144. Morningstar has Yamana Gold, Inc., (AUY) as undervalued by 25% with a fair value price of $16 and rated at 4 out of 5 stars.

    ReplyDelete
  145. JoeKa, that news is about 16 hours old and has already been reflected in the price - up from 98 something to 101 something on the news

    ReplyDelete
  146. I'm holding my miners. EGO is a pain, but the cost bases of GG and AUY aren't that far off from today's levels.
    I'm suffering in Tinka and Great Panther, but have only small positions.

    I'm now studying up on closed-end funds. The flash crash took away my CH and I failed to get back in and for some reason, I sold FAX (Aussie bonds). Discounts are out there and the monthly payers are what I'm going for...much better income than from anything else I can find...

    ReplyDelete
  147. It's going to be inserting to see how all this OPEC bullshit plays out in crude futures this week. The announcement that the talks failed to raise production was probably just "code" for another big move that's been planned.

    Word verification: Flaimers

    ReplyDelete
  148. Good morning all...

    Not much action to report here...

    Agian, kitco 3 day chart interesting last 3 days at this sort of time silver has been around 36.75-36 80.. yesterday in went down from here, the day before it went up....

    Thats about the extent of me TA for now... pretty soon I'll be printing the charts out with scribbles all over them...

    GLA

    JoeKa, hope you're enjoying your hols!

    ReplyDelete
  149. a funny thing just happened...

    my chart setting let me change the timeframe to -333 seconds...

    wondering if that will let me see 5 minutes into the future?!

    ReplyDelete
  150. GOOD morning was just looking at why I liked the daily on silver better than gold when I saw my chart start running - cool.
    JoeKa says short the hell out of it at 37 - I'm long coins so I just gonna ride this bull and see where it goes.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Hi Tes..

    I'm not getting too excited.. if it can get and stay over 37 then maybe,,

    My chart is showing a pivot point of 36.92 which it got over but only just...

    But I dont know squat...

    ReplyDelete
  152. Well it's pretty late here - If it breaks 37 I'm pouring myself a shot!

    ReplyDelete
  153. You watching the sky is falling POSX?
    Something gives - I understand the Euro is hinting at a rate increase maybe?


    ... Okay its gotta close this bar above 37 though...

    ReplyDelete
  154. looking good but cautious.. I've set some stops with profit now on a couple of positions..

    gotta go to work..!

    Enjoy that shot!

    bugger. spiked down for a sec a tripped one stop!! ALWAYS happens!

    ReplyDelete
  155. NCOT - Check out a free membership to this TA guys website for 4 weeks.

    http://stockmarketmentor.com/

    ReplyDelete
  156. Thanks Tes, crazy morning... everythings all over the place..

    Indices up, $ down.. Brent crude at 118... (missed a trick there!)

    Gold down/flat and silver up...

    Im gonna piss in the wind and bet on which direction that goes, I'll have more luck!

    ReplyDelete
  157. NCOT, pissing in the wind always results in the piss hitting your face, regardless of the wind direction!

    ReplyDelete
  158. @e736...

    sounds like most of my trades... so thats about right!

    ReplyDelete
  159. Mine too buddy.

    If I bet on a 1 horse race at the moment, the horse would die before the finish line

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  160. I think miners are not yet in the eye of investors, it is still the etf's time. When investors will discover that ETF's are frauds (for gold and silver) they will switch to miners, I hope in time before the confiscation!!

    and maybe the big banks have not invested in them yet, or not too much.

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  161. ROF - yeah it's a bumpy ride rite now, the stuff that everyone is jumpy about is slowly unfolding thankfully so far Turds #2 holds.

    I think that this administration wants to get re-elected and they want the market to go up to that end. Rising tide lifts all boats =]

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  162. wtf, silver just jumped ..

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  163. Who knows what today will bring, but overnight silver did not top previous day high. When these guys aren't buying, it's because they've stepped to side expecting better opportunities later.

    5min chart looking like it's setting up more lower highs/lower lows for the morning. 37-36.50 is the tight range with 37.50 and 36 being breakout boundaries, recent stop/losses likely set beyond both so there would be a run further in either direction if violated.

    Gold uninspiring as well.

    My view so far :)

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  164. of course its going up.. I closed some earlier....

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  165. @NCOT
    Short swift moves always occur near the hour, as positions are reset. You'll often see them reverse themselves in the first few minutes of the next hour. 'Bots? I don't know, but I see it every morning (US time). No reason to think this spike won't slide back down again to 37 or 36.90 in the next 15 mins.

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  166. Interesting thread ... I'm currently at 1/3 cash, 1/3 physical, & 1/3 miners. It's hard watching the miners right now, but it is also hard for me to sell 'em, since there are so many extremely dark clouds on the horizon - the U.S. debt, Greece, the Middle East ... I realize that a major stock market pullback would probably take the miners with it, but on the other hand, one of these incredibly dark clouds might soon cause a flight to PMs and (hopefully) and accompanying jump in the miners. So I am sitting on the fence, looking for the right time to turn use my cash to buy more physical & stocks.

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  167. @Pailin... bang on...

    37 now... 15 min later!

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  168. @NCOT
    Be careful being long right now. 1hr chart, silver topping, while gold is bottoming. Maybe nothing, but why is gold not only not following but deflating? What's got silver up there right now?

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  169. Ah, lots of data points coming up. BoE and ECB rate decisions (!) at 7 and 7:45. Looking forward to hawkish talk and dovish action. And if the Trickster does his usual press conference, well, there's a weeks worth of volatility right there.

    Crop report at 8:30, as well as more jobs data.

    Also very hot in NYC. Nattygas traders get optimistic; other than that, Angry Traders, like Angry Birds

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  170. ecb may not call for rate hike, but the key is does trichet use the word 'aggressive' in describing monetary policy in his 8:30 ET speech, that would mean july hike ahead
    let's see what the man behind the black curtain has to say
    i am always weary of overnight's w/ no dollar rally, as it usually switches up pretty fast

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  171. I am loading up on miners this morning (Thursday). They will end up heavy green by the close today and tomorrow. I nailed the bottom two weeks ago and sold with a profit. I'm expecting a washout early today and then I pounce.

    -Sooth

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  172. can you provide reasoning for the washout early today sooth?/

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  173. Pulled my XAU 1525 bid. 4hr chart looks like it might be forming a rounded top with downside to 1480-90 area. Might take end close tomorrow or even Mon-Tuesday to get there, but I'll be a paper buyer there instead, heavier too. Rate talk could put a fast push down on gold. Or not :)

    Still short XAG paper as seasonal, not thinking about covering until 39 is crossed.

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  174. Cookie, you think that ECB raises in July? How does that help the PIIGS stay down on the farm during the long, hot summer?

    I could be wrong, but I'd say all talk, no action.

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  175. @ pailin
    i think the gold crush has to do w/ a rate hike actually being good for combatting inflation out there in euroland, where there seem to be a lot of buyers.
    silver reflecting the american risk trade and dollar down v. euro.
    last night gold seemed to be losing its embededness...if it can't take out 1545 today, it will slowly move down imo.

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  176. @ D E
    yeah the pigs are screwing everything up. and the german economy is not improving. on the other hand, price of gas is hitting them pretty hard, too. inflation slightly down in euro this month, though.
    i don't know if they'll raise in july, but that is why the euro is up overnight, just in case they were to signal that...
    i have no idea. two days ago i thought they'd all agreed to smash the american markets, then oil did its thing yesterday...could be a volatile day.

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  177. ok wow just looked at $ index
    guess silver just riding crude coattails

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  178. @pailin, thanks again,

    I've been wary or the Gold stagnant, Silver rising thing.

    Closed a couple of positions earlier at 37.05 with profit (stops kicked in) Including the 36.60 auto buy from yesterday.

    So again, averaged up but lowered holdings..

    Looks like I'm gonna take a hit one way or the other, just trying to ease the pain.. still hoping for a spike.. but thats fading!

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  179. And look at US 10-yr. No problems with inflation or dollar there! Maybe viewed as safe haven until the "Me" generation starts dying off en masse...

    Word ver: baked...no joke!

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  180. And...BoE stands pat...Monsieur, souhaitez-vous placer un autre paci?

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  181. Monday is Martin Armstrongs 2011.45 day. Some kind of big turn around day. Maybe PM's will start to move?

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  182. News from India... http://www.rediff.com/business/report/silver-rises-to-rs-55100-gold-remains-weak/20110609.htm

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  183. DE-
    is that what strauss-kahn asked the maid?

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  184. Wake me up when we get to $45

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  185. Metals look awesome today. I know I am but a mere peasant in the company of noble and wise men, but I have been in the trade for the last 6 years or so, and I am not sure about our board experts here, but I see money coming in. Soon to be piling in by the truck load...Stay vigilant and BTFD.

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  186. Actually, I think that's what Sarko asked DSK; clearly, DSK is (was?) a betting man...

    Meanwhile, across the pond...

    As was widely expected the Bank of England has left interest rates and asset-purchases well alone at 0.50% and 200-billion pounds respectively. The key benchmark has now been held at the emergency level for 27-months on the trot and could well be left alone for the rest of the year. The most notable event was that this was Broadbent’s first meeting on the governing council as he replaces serial-hawk Sentence shifting the balance of the to the dovish side. We already know that one of the remaining hawks, Dale, is said to vote according to data and the recent weakness in UK data could certainly have an effect on his voting pattern and send him back to the neutral, or even dovish, camp. As such, we expect a 7-2 (or possibly even 8-1) outcome when the meeting’s minutes are released on June 22nd.

    There'll always be an England...or not...

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  187. @ pailin

    I think you should consider have your tweet page where you tweet your commodities trades - would be great help for rest of us.

    Can you share what indicators you are using for swing trading gold and silver.

    thanks

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  188. Hello again and my best wishes to all. Another hit and dash posting.

    I just entered into a short position at silver 37. The huge pennant that's been forming all this time to me is ominous to a fast break to test new lows.

    Gold to me also looks to have run out of steam. Have been reading that physical demand in India has been tapering off now in view of seasonal weakness.

    Lets see how this goes. All the best.

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  189. Ok all, so last night I went to bed my July silver was at $36.6 (or maybe some ticks higher) for break even. The comments here, and TF's, made me want out, and lately the overnights scare me. So I put in a stop at $35.5 and a sell at $37. I expected to hit the stop, but looks like it spiked then died - so I got $37 and made my $2,000 - nice!

    I have a question - who here trades Futures contracts (not etfs or options)?

    Another question - if anyone is interested, I might want to post running commentary on what I am doing - good and bad - anyone interested?

    I might start by posting what I have done since I started - I actually have more than doubled my money since March but it has been a rocky road and that huge upswing in silver did the majority of it.

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  190. oh but kurt, if you had invested 10k in sequoia capital 10 years ago, today you'd have a whopping $17,000. i can't believe the commentator on msnbc said "that's a deal a lot of investors would love to have."

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  191. 8:30a

    Weekly U.S. jobless claims rise 1,000 to 427,000
    8:30a

    Four-week claims average drops 2,750 to 424,000
    8:30a

    Continuing claims decline 71,000 to 3.68 million

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