Thursday, June 9, 2011

A Quickie

This post will be brief as I have several other items that I need to be working on this morning.

A couple of quick notes on QE, though. First (I love this one), Bill Gross stated yesterday that there will not be a QE 3.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-no-qe-3
Gee, since PIMCO is on the record as being net short treasuries, doesn't anyone else see an apparent conflict of interest here? Nothing like talking up your book, huh, Willy?

Next, here's a little story from the Washington Times about the reality of no QE and its effect on rates.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/7/lack-of-buyers-may-force-treasury-to-boost-interes/

And this is just kind of interesting. I don't believe in the entire top 10 but it may make for a fun discussion.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11142443/1/10-myths-that-politicians-want-you-to-believe.html

Here are some charts to watch. Have a great day. I'll have more after the close. TF





171 comments:

  1. LOL !!! Had to type that !!!

    Keep up the good work turd I've been following you from day one !!

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  2. Thanks for the update, TF. This "no QE3" noise has me perplexed. We've been assuming "no QE3" = "risk off" = markets+PM's down. The last few days aren't following that script.

    I'm thinking Treasuries aren't getting any flight-to-safety love, instead flight-to-safety is being split. Those who haven't seen the light are fleeing to the dollar, while those who have seen the light are fleeing to PM's...

    Any thoughts?

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  3. @Atlee-

    Thanks for the input, do I recall that you mentioned at some point you have a Forex trading account? Recommend?

    And by the way, I was out of the country and 'off the watchtower' for a while but I could have sworn when I checked in here from overseas you had a new avatar- ole Bobby Lee or something? Anyway, thanks my man!

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  4. @TURD
    gold hangin on..silver proving to be a tough nut..posx up on Greece bailout of Euro120Billion..so is this a revival call of our Beloved Silver ?

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  5. Mornings like this - Treasuries up, stocks up, metals up, ags up - always leave me pondering: if everything has a bid at the same time, where is the money coming out of? All out of Euro accounts?

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  6. Nice bounce in my crappy miners today. Several are +4%

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  7. @uptofreedom

    Yes...it seems the market is split on its flight to safety. It will be interesting on how the weeks unfold as to where the flight ultimately lands as QE2 ends. The pause period between liquidity injections will bring still greater movements as the reality sets in...

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  8. Post earlier thread RE gold held by Federal Reserve???
    Could have swore the Fed denied having ANY gold whatsoever when Ron Paul was grilling them about it... Now they have 13M tOZ according to treasury website?

    WTF


    Treasury Website showing 13m ounces at FED


    FED denying having any gold whatsoever

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  9. @Tesla - I think the Fed said or meant that they owned no gold, that it was owned by the treasury. Ownership is different from storing it on behalf of Treasury, and indeed, the gold at the Fed vault is listed on Treasury's books. so I guess the Fed is *technically* correct.

    But why then is the Fed storing 5% of Treasury gold? Who has what claim on it?

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  10. Why is the dollar up? Because the dollar is going to be the place to be...until it isn't any more ;)

    War is coming...and who else can you vote for to win? It's our ONLY way out of this mess. Close to 1/3 of our debt is to the ME and $100 oil is killing us. War is coming...to eliminate debt and to lower the cost of energy to spur growth.

    If China joins in on the wrong side...there's another 1/3 of our debt gone...simply cancelled with a key stroke. Assets seized...that means China is out all their commodities that they desperately need. Got to have "global reach" if you want to hold onto foreign assets...we've got that...we've got bases in HOW many countries? Troops in HOW many? China?

    We've still got the world by the balls...I'm not betting against the US just yet. $50 oil will allow growth to continue again. The can will get kicked another 20 years down the road. Until a shortage of cheap energy once again takes the spotlight.

    I've got some UUP, DXD and DGL, AGQ, along with DBO and DAG. But plenty of dry powder...1/2 cash just waiting.

    I guess I'm a dissenting voice here. Instead of the end...we're entering into a period of conflict. TPTB are not going to just let it all collapse. They're not going to let China just take it either. That's why I'm convinced that war is coming. It's the only way out that I can see...and they'll take a way out in lieu of letting it all slip away.

    Am I high? Anyone else agree war is our only way out of this mess?

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  11. @pining

    The larger the firm the better. My Vanguard brokerage account never has a problem with it.

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  12. @joe

    I think the war has already started. Eventually the conflicts in the ME will necessitate the big boys (China/ Russia/US) to decisively take sides and actively join.

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  13. Throwing in towel on WTI here. May like it more lower, but the 101.50 line and weak data + dollar bounce aren't stirring my inner Jed Clampett. Also trimming the paper silver back to 0 @37.35 if lucky; got some out already. Hanging onto small paper gold for a bit; dollar bounce relative as euros, yen and buckaroo in race to bottom vs. gold.

    corn open gotta go

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  14. Thanks agauinvest!
    Ok - I'm 'technically' not going to call them lying scum bags because technically they didn't lie then. But ... I trust them less and less every second.

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  15. atlee, do the PM's staying flat these last few days while the broader market is puking alter your outlook re summer doldrums any?

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  16. Today looks like a technical bounce from a deeply oversold condition. Unless QE3 comes soon, this market is headed for the crapper and everything will go down with the ship. Be careful.

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  17. @joe, war in the ME will inevitably destroy infrastructure and result in a huge increase in oil price. The only thing war would do is distract attention from the true problems that are not solved.

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  18. @uptofreedom, the other possibility would be that nobody believes the "no QE3" noise ...

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  19. @ uptofreedom

    the probabilities are in favor of the seasonals. In the past 10 years, there was one year when that did not hold true for the metals.
    That was on the Ira gold report you saw.

    Like he says, things can happen differently but the probability lies in the seasonals.

    I am seeing light volume here in the PMs so I don't have much confidence in this little pop. In the stk mkt this is a rollover day where traders leg to the september contract on the indices etc. So often times you see wierd things happen.

    Man I wish I could say definatively what is going to happen. If I knew for certain I would definately share.

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  20. @joe -- I don't disagree that war seems like likely outcome, but am not sure why you think that would mean $50 oil.

    Also, energy price is NOT the only thing constraining growth -- the insurmountable amount of debt affects not only the US but the rest of the 'developed' world as well.

    "The can will get kicked another 20 years down the road"

    Not an option at this point, I'm afraid. Not without MASSIVE destruction in said war -- after which there may very well be a "growth" trajectory, but from a baseline that is 50%? 25% of the current levels...

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  21. @atlee - I'm just finding it remarkable how well silver and gold are holding up, all things considered... Silver especially, if it was going to get whacked I think it would've happened by now. I know they say "this time won't be different", but with fiat dying, who knows... This time *could* be different...

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  22. Took my bounce profits in EXK GPL from yesterday buy.....have some others in energy I'll let run a lil

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  23. @joe

    I would venture to say that war is one probable outcome amongst many....the journey to that possibility is where there has and will continue to be a lot of discussion. I don't see this getting kicked down the road for 20 years. Like everything, technology has a way of speeding up the timing of events and compressing how one event triggers the next. Most of us....definitely won't speak for everyone.....believe that the dollar demise is coming within a relatively short period of time. War, which the U.S. is already in many of them, may become an output of collapse or the precursor. I wouldn't count of the U.S. being able to secure cheap oil through war. We took on Iraq and the only winner from oil was Haliburton. I don't see $50 oil in the foreseeable future through conquest. WWIII is a losing proposition for all us...because some country would pop the cork on a nuke and then its sticks and stones time. Just my own thoughts..

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  24. @ uptofreedom

    I hear ya. Things often do the opposite of what we think. Happens to me frequently. Maybe you would do better to fade me. I was dead wrong last week when silver ralled through 38 and then failed.

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  25. Some more gold price ratios to follow for trends in gold (via Jesse's Cafe):

    http://www.hussman.net/html/gold.htm

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  26. Bizarro market once again.

    Trichet leaves in 'strong vigilance', raises inflation expectations, everyone expects ECB rate rise in july, yet:

    dollar up (vs euro, down vs CAD)
    treasuries up (lower yields)
    metals up
    stocks up

    I guess you can't rely on any correlations for more than a day anymore.

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  27. @joe @beprepared
    Oil is not expensive..I can still buy a gallon of gas for less than 2 dimes(1964 dimes).

    War is not "our" only way out of this mess. (unless you are part of TPTB)
    Iceland is showing us the way.
    Debt-free government money and FOFOA's freegold make sense to me.

    If TPTB really believe in overpopulation and anthropogenic climate change then War(nuclear winter) or Plague or birth-control-in-the-water or anything that thins the herd could be attractive to them(Them's Not Us!). The infowars.com site has more along these lines...

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  28. Good call on Dec Art! Looks like best price action. Got within 1 penny of limit up on July, just so the trading gods could mock my sell orders. Voices in my head screaming I'm going to be like that guy in "Witness" after Harrison Ford locks him in the silo!

    Will lighten up some today -- and thanks for all the commentary; it saved me a bushelfull of tuition

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  29. Jim Willie point for QEIII:
    v Basically, QE2 was a failure, so it will be repeated.

    v The QE2 provided demand for USTreasury auctions, when most foreign creditors went on a buyer's strike. So QE will be repeated.

    v The housing market has resumed its downward path, with frightening declines to the bank balance sheets. So QE will be repeated.

    v The big US banks remain insolvent, loaded down by a mountain of one million REO homes in inventory. Buyers of mortgage bonds have disappeared. So QE will be repeated.

    v The USGovt deficit picture is a full blown nightmare. Rather than see market mechanisms kick into gear, with higher interest rates imposed, the leaders will continue on the hyper monetary inflation path. So QE will be repeated.

    v Talk of the risk trade counter to the USDollar ending is nonsense. Weimar has met Wall Street, the syndicate handlers of the USGovt and US security agencies. The Printing Pre$$ with US nameplate cannot be stopped. So QE will be repeated.

    v The Gold & Silver prices will move up hard, as soon as the light bulb goes on that QE3 is imminent without interruption. One must be a total moron not to anticipate its immediate installation. To decide not to continue QE would force failures upon major US banks.

    v The USFed is all bluff with no good cards in their poker hand. They will wait for stocks to be a little cheaper and both sides of the USCongress to beg for QE3. U.S. Hurtles Toward System Failure
    http://www.goldseek.com/
    ..............................................
    Oh it's coming so don't be fooled! dead head feds can yak attack posture all the live long day on no more money printing and should they stop? dead heads hang themselves as the whole house of paper burns to ashes. It will anyway but the dead heads would like to keep rat basturd heads attached to furry flea infested bodies.

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  30. @ Shill

    I just bought TBT as well.

    Sold all my CAD, once again, what an easy trade.

    Tomorrow 7 am CAD employment numbers will determine which way CAD goes.

    Praying for a bad number so I can buy CAD cheap again. Since all my nieces/nephews can't find jobs I am assuming the number won't be good.

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  31. No lower low in the current day trend at the london fix... interesting...

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  32. FOAGQ. Took the opportunity to unload most of what I had stuck from the last high tide. Patience is indeed paying off. Picked up some ZSL - we might go solidly through $37.50 today and I will just be patient again if that happens. (plus I have some AGQ I'll sell if we hit $38)

    The currency charts together with commodity charts aren't adding up to me right now. Looking forward to seeing it settle out today.

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  33. This QE3 bullshit. We have pissed ourselves into our ears and now our brains are effected.

    We need to think about what is now.

    Debt now is huge! Is the economy wonderful? Hence can we pay our creditors?

    The world can't even pay their debts with a wonderful economy.

    So conclusion is - QE3 Yes - great for PM's. QE3 No - great cannot pay debts therefore great for PM's.

    This debate about QE3 or not is useless - however of course its stoked because this talk can effect commodity prices. So wonderful for the Elite.

    This QE3 bullshit is like arguing about fucking planting more or less daisies in spring. This supposed intellectual mindfucking is not even pleasurable.

    Doesn't anybody get what Santa is saying and for that matter TF.

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  34. Good news on the home front here. Both kids got summer jobs!

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  35. What's the deal with Palladium lately? Anybody know?

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. Greetings, first post here in a while. Glad to see the regular folks still here. What have I missed?

    Received an email from APMEX; they are having a 24-hr. sale on 5-oz America The Beautiful bullion coins, at $3.49/oz over spot. Being in the Pacific NW and within view of the majestic Olympic Mountains, I ordered two of the Olympic National Park coins.

    Are you all still buying Physical or just sitting on the fence for the summer?

    I have a shot at 20 Silver Eagles for $40/ea from a private seller today. Random year Eagles are listed for $42.41 at APMEX. Trying to decide whether to buy these or not.

    What would YOU do?

    Cheers to all,
    Mammoth

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  38. Eric-
    good news about the kids jobs...

    anyone have any thoughts about JPM buying tons of platinum hand over fist??

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  39. @Mammoth - if you have the cash, and believe ASE's are good value in general, BUY. I have shifted to 90% myself. Of course this is only MHO, but I believe the insurance provided by silver in hand is more valuable than the prospect of a $2-3 possibly appearing in the next several months.

    Just for fun, here's a very apt cartoon from Jim Sinclair's site.

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  40. I mean $2-3 discount, above

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  41. @mammoth

    Nice to meet you.
    Low premium on those ASE. buy them.

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  42. Eur/Usd has a lot of gap up it could fill if it decides to break upwards here... would put pressure on the dollar and maybe enough support to the PM's for silver to make a run past 37.50 and onwards to Turd's target?

    Just observing.

    P.S. now that the greek bailout will be finalized today for the most part... the pressure goes back onto the US dollar debt problems... which you would think brings gold to new highs, and silver as well.

    Cycle between euro weakness and US dollar weakness in perception management land. The coming days I feel we will see something big in terms of US Debt/Stimulus news...

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  43. We should never forget that the Fed is privately owned. It is not a government institution. It does not exist for the good of this nation. Its primary objective is to maximize the profits and wealth of its shareholders. Keeping inflation tame and maximizing employment are only a secondary mandate that acts as a smoke screen. If the Money Masters who truly owns the Fed do not see any benefit in extending the US debt through QE3, they will not hesitate to push the economy into a double dip recession. In the end, they are the ones that will benefit the most from such recession. History shows that they have not hesitated to do so several times before. In fact, they have done much worse than that.

    By the way there is a great video called “The Money Masters” that explains the history behind the current world depression, the creation of the Federal Reserve in the hands of a few private investors and the bankers’ goal of world economic control by a very small coterie of private bankers, above all governments. A “must watch series” of truly informative videos.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXb-LrVkuwM

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  44. whats happening?!!! Boom time!

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  45. not sure I'm reading the chart right, but has the volume been turned up? On silver?

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  46. Nick Elway said...
    @joe @beprepared
    Oil is not expensive..I can still buy a gallon of gas for less than 2 dimes(1964 dimes).
    ++++++++++++++++

    I found a 1961 dime in my change yesterday. First time ever. It was kind of fun. Hope I dont spend it. haha.

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  47. @terri

    here's a link that might help with the JPM and platinum acquisition they are doing:

    JPM is Acquiring Platinum

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  48. I think $50 oil will come about because "we" will again own the oil fields. We're not paying ANYONE for it, it's "government land". Sure, there will some destruction of facilities, but if done right, I think we could pull it off. We'll go there first, straight to the oil fields, so they can't do a Saddam on us. The first night invasion would be dropping squads to evacuate/guard oil facilities. Along with the taking out of the AA defenses and air force. With air superiority, we can hold the oil terminals.

    Yes, we ARE already at war in the ME, but this is just our setting our pieces, a few pawns getting taken as we move the rooks and bishops into position. We WANT to get as many governments as possible to turn our way voluntarily, of course. But in the end, there will be a few (Iran) that will need to be conquered.

    I think if anything, the "western" will form. The dollar and Euro merging, maybe bring Canada and Mexico on board too. But for now, the dollar will remain king. That big expensive military is about to earn it's reputation.

    Someone mentioned barely hanging on in Iraq? Really? You don't think we could make them pay dearly for each and every insurgency? All we have to do is change our policy to, "fuck the civilians" and you'll see a whole new war. One won blitzkrieg style. The Germans knew their shit, Hitler not so much. Anyway, if we actually USE all those toys we have, to win, we will.

    China IS the question, what WILL China do? I think they play along. They stick up for the ME only because they kiss up to them like everyone else does, because they have the oil. I think China would RATHER see them go too. As long as they get a cut.

    Russia is actually a MUCH bigger worry than China. Russia produces a LOT of energy...close to 20% of world production. I'm not so sure they'll take kindly to us invading others for their energy! Could they get China to form a alliance?

    $50 oil would allow the growth we had before the 2008 crisis. In fact it was the oil spike that started it all. We could "reset" at $50 a BBL and with VERY cheap energy...growth could start up quickly. Imagine if one day you woke up and gas was now $1.50 or #1.75? THAT is a wealth effect! It would give you the confidence to start spending, start borrowing again. Especially when you knew that ALL priced would come down because of cheap energy.

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  49. continued

    Emerging markets could pick up production again because energy and food were affordable again.

    ALL our problems are DIRECTLY attributable to the cost and supply of energy. With geometrically expanding growth fueled by cheap energy, geometrically expanding debt is ALSO possible. It's worked up until energy got away from us, energy became relationally too expensive to continue exponential growth.

    Don't get me wrong, this whole charade can only go so long, eventually some "limiter" will come about that slows growth. And then we have another collapse or near collapse IF they can find an acceptable workaround to the shortage.

    "Real money" should always have value. Unless we devolve to a pure barter system, God forbid!

    There is only overpopulation when you can't take care of them all. With cheap energy, .we CAN. With expensive energy, we can't. It has to do with the percentage of income spent on energy. Just like food. Poorer countries now have to spend too much on food/energy to grow. TPTB require growth, they're the ones who want people to populate. Like the Catholic church, they're part of TPTB.

    The bottom line is, the "west" is nothing more than huge corporations that want to sell as much as they can to as many as possible at the lowest cost to them and highest cost to us. They've created governments to help them do their "thing" with as many advantages as possible. Business and government are the same people moving for private to public. To get elected. you owe a LOT...and people expect their compensation. Everyone is greedy, everyone looks for an advantage. Isn't that why you're here?

    Have a great day! Make some money!

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  50. Mammoth
    I'm on hiatus from stacking phyzz for a while. Not due to price or anything, just have been a heavy buyer for a while (year and a half) and now it's time to pay down some credit cards instead for a while.

    IF I were buying silver right now, I'd still be sticking to generic rounds/bars or 90%. Never been a big fan of the premiums on Eagles, but to each their own.

    But if you do like Eagles, then that sounds like a good price to me.

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  51. wish I had kept hold of my stuff I unloaded the other day... but what I do still have looks nice. Just passed the $60k in profit line.

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  52. @Eric#1 - my only thought re palladium is "the flight-to safety" rush is on and all PM's are catchin' some love. I'm guessing palladium is less manipulated, so seeing nicer gains.

    @Mammoth - up to you of course, but I'd jump on that. Spot would probably have to get <35 for teh bigger dealers to offer that price. Spot might get down there, but then again, it might not.

    @Terri - I can't justify this, but my suspicion is that JPM sees the sriting on the wall re fiat, and are preparing accordingly.

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  53. Lovely 'doom & gloom' conversation here about War this morning.

    Something may be happening this summer. While driving to & from work the past few days, I have seen convoys of camouflage-painted flatbed trucks carrying containers to the local military shipping depot near here. Haven't noticed so much traffic like this in the past.

    Sure looks like they are up to something, though.

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  54. Somebody just lit a fire under the metals!

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  55. @Nick

    Oil priced in silver or gold might not be an inflationary economic factor if we were all using hard money. My point is that I don't see $50 FRN oil anytime soon.... Within the next few months, I only see it moving its way, in stops and spurts, upwards.

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  56. btw, lovin' this pop. (not to toot my own horn, but...) who's got two thumbs and called that shit? This guy!

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  57. @uptofreedom
    Check out the latest flight to safety:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dealers-scramble-offload-treasury-exposure-ahead-qe2-end-flip-record-75-just-issued-7-year-a
    And the next:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-taxpayers-about-be-saddled-another-european-bailout-courtesy-aig
    More printing, more bonds bought by FED, more printing, more bonds bought by FED,..........
    No more QE?
    *Just a little more trash for the ladies here at the knitting circle.

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  58. @ Kurt, lucky guy! I'm simply losing less!

    closed some positions this morning ay 37.05 which took my average up from 37.60 to 38!

    If I'd let them run, I'd be green.. just! But hey.. not complaining..

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  59. not seeing any resistance till 38.15 (MA200 on the 4hr) and then 39.3 (upper BB on daily) Prolly should be lightening up here at 37.5, but I'm setting a stop loss here instead...

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  60. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXt1cayx0hs&feature=related

    Is the complete video in one shot on the Federal Reserve instead of 22 short videos.

    Also watch the video named

    THE SECRET OF OZ

    by the same people.

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  61. Don't worry, no gold raid at noon. I bought gll at high noon.

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  62. This is the most boring week of trading ever. How long do we have to wait for the silver bear pennant to play out?

    I hope nobody is leveraged long here for the next two weeks. God, I hope it doesn't take that long. I'm going stir crazy waiting as it limps along.

    At least the old s&p is nice and predictable and has some action. Think this bounce takes us to 1320 or peters out before?

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  63. 1545 may be a good nibble point

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  64. Just curious what caused the $10 spike in gold at 11:45.

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  65. @Afrum --

    from Willie:

    Basically, QE2 was a failure, so it will be repeated...

    EXACTLY! Lovin' it. 2 funny. Sad, but true.

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  66. No raid... but it sure looks like they capped upside momentum.

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  67. It's a trololololol kinda day so far after holding tight on AGQ for a couple of weeks. More please.

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  68. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  69. Quickies are nice Turd, at least that is what my wife says.

    Market at peak today worth going long TzA.

    Booked morning profit on TBT, now sitting in UBT for the clean up.

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  70. uptofreedom call it you did.

    Now about those miners!

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  71. Double mini top or a continuation of recent uptrend. can go both ways right now. Great chart here

    http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

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  72. @DE
    I think you get your fill today at 7.94.

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  73. July corn up 25 cents now. Sold my hubris 1/3. Limit up for the rest, you scalpers! Taking advantage of an innocent city slicker that wandered into your field!

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  74. @indosil

    If blythe is responsible for a $.20 drop than the game has changed. We'll know she's off her sick leave when we see a $2.50 hammer in 30 minutes. Tired tired market.

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  75. Hey Art! Didn't see that while typing. Thanks again. Hope you are having a good day. Should be a wow finish. Would NOT want to be short here.

    Meeting my older boy for lunch; looks like I'm paying!

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  76. @ Shill

    Just sold my TBT, nice auction, hehehe, that was lucky.

    I am flat now. Not sure what to do next.

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  77. @Sockeye1

    Great videos linked above - hadn't seen the first one before - Thanks!

    "History records the money changers (Central Bank) have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit and violent means possible (including presidential assassinations and attempted assassinations ie A. Lincoln & J. Garfield and attempt on A. Jacksons) to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance"

    James Madison

    - the main author of the Declaration of Independence -

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  78. decided to short the POSX again I think it blew its load.

    Do you guys think Beef is still a buy?

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  79. how could James Madison comment on the assassination of Lincoln?

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  80. Thanks for your comments on the ASE dilemma Level, CD, Eric, UptoFreedom.

    Might just flip a coin to decide this one. On the plus side, it’s always nice to do a transaction ‘under the table’ so to speak. But on the other hand, Silver is likely to remain rangebound – or even drop a few more dollars – between now and the end of summer.
    ------------------------------
    Nice cartoon at 11:34 a.m. For those Star Wars fans, Jabba the Hutt looks like a big toad – at least his head & face. But did you know, in Russian the word Жаба (phonetically ‘zhaba’) means toad. Seems there was a Russian in there, helping to write the script for those Star Wars movies!

    -Mammoth

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  81. No sorry - just an example - watch the TWO videos posted by Sockeye1 and you'll see - my examples are in parenthesis not his words - Did not mean to mislead sorry! I see what you mean - my bad

    but statement is historically accurate according to second video.

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  82. Second video link:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U71-KsDArFM

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  83. atlee, btw... I'd never set out intending to fade you. We're all just deciding on our own course of action based on available info, risk tolerance, trading style and sometimes even gut feelings.

    Or at least, we *should* all be deciding on our own course of action... Just because someone says they're making some action, doesn't mean taking the same action makes sense for me to take...

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  84. 1541.10 was a top side test of the flag trendline of the last few days. We'll see if that holds. Makes perfect sense to test it.

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  85. Afternoon all!

    So where's Blythe? This seems like a perfect setup for an EE raid...stocks starting to decline, metals rounding over on low volume... I can't BTFEER if there's no FEER!

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  86. I was half-way being a smartass anyway!

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  87. yeah i'm waiting for the raid too

    ReplyDelete
  88. Kurt
    No - Offense taken at all-
    I should have added examples separately - it was kinda misleading of me.
    Thanks for pointing out my error.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Isn't Gross talking DOWN his book? No QEx means a higher POSX and he is short correct?

    ReplyDelete
  90. @NCOT

    The slow rise is great for my core AGQ, but in this current yoyo silver market, the only way I'm going to jump in is after a major downdraft, that way I have at least a chance of making some coin on the rebound. When we hit the lower trend line I'll buy a bit (like I should have yesterday- kicking self), but today I couldn't decide if it was going to be a ZSL or AGQ sort of day, and having a tiny amount of wisdom, figured that meant I shouldn't start my trading day with a coin flip.. that rarely works out well.

    ReplyDelete
  91. wti waterfalling.... a little...

    ReplyDelete
  92. @tesla @sockeye1
    I did enjoy the Secret of Oz (warning..one hour and 50 minutes!)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIhDdST27g
    I now believe that Government printing money debt free is superior to "borrowing" it. Given the choice, I'd prefer Gideon Gomo and Abraham Lincoln (debt-free printers) to Ben Bernanke.

    Combine debt-free fiat printing and taxes eliminated when trading gold or silver for $FRN's or the FRN successor(Go Ron Paul)and we've arrived at FOFOA's freegold:
    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-to-honest-money.html

    They say that I'm a dreamer...

    ReplyDelete
  93. @ Kiwi, I'm kidding

    When my stomach was rumbling at 36.19 yesterday, I posted on here that I should buy when it does it! and if I had, I'd be back in green.

    Then this morning I closed a couple of position in green at 37.05, expecting a harsher dip...but nooooooooo it waits for me to sell then goes up!

    ReplyDelete
  94. @NCOT

    No problem, bro. If it wasn't for getting my buy points and sell points wrong, I'd be a great trader..... ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  95. @Nick
    "Go Ron Paul!!!"

    Yea man 100% in agreement with abolishing privately owned central bank +++ and hanging the damn traitors!

    - have you read the "silver Stealers" ?

    http://silverstealers.net/choice.html

    ReplyDelete
  96. Tesla

    I add JFK to the list. He was assassinated a week after he signed a Presidential order to end the Fed Reserve.

    The Fed doing it makes sense to me.

    ReplyDelete
  97. YAWN! isn't is funny how the DOW can climb 100+ and Gold gets hit around like a Whack a Mole..funny how that happens. Free Markets.

    The on down days the DOW god forbid hangs in at -100 nope up she goes, and on up days zero downside, comical to be honest.

    PT BARNUM AND BENNY CIRCUS OF FRAUD.

    ReplyDelete
  98. @ People waking up to the FED:

    Yes it is indeed the true power behind the scenes, but be sure not to think it is only the FED.

    The FED, Euro Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, International Monetary Fund, Bank of International Settlements, and many more are all "controlled" by the same people.

    The show you see when Ben Bernanke speaks is nothing but a puppet of the larger show being played. The larger show being played has to due with macro-events folding towards chaos/unrest so a push for world government/world currency can be made (coincidentally run by the same assholes who lead us to this point).

    When you see "black swans" happen in terms of war or important events such as "Osama Bin Laden Killed..." keep your mind open and try to think about what significance these events have, rather than believing them at face value.

    Conveniently, Zerohedge has an article supporting this thesis about the UN.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-krieger-un-power-grab

    The UN = "World Political Center"
    BIS/IMF = "World Economic Center"

    Watch for these two to emerge and alert your friends/family as they do. The truth must be spread.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Kiwi

    I couldn't decide if it was going to be a ZSL or AGQ sort of day

    How do you find the risk reward and risk trading these. There are also options on both. I am wondering if this is better than trading the pure commodity market for big ask spread.

    I would think some professionals are doing arbitrage between the etf and the commodity. and thus the bid ask spread is going to be bigger on the etf's

    But on the other hand one can buy a etf and hold on long term. for example the options that turd bought are probably going to lose by next week at least at the rate it is working out. Silver can do it. but it better get started soon to make the deadline. also I think the EE pushes the price down at option expiration.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Has to do*, my spelling is fail.

    ReplyDelete
  101. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Instead of focusing on PM we should be looking at long term interest rates. maybe short term also.

    Anyway if the story plays out. When will interest rates begin to go up and we can get rich shorting TBonds on the commodity exchange.

    ReplyDelete
  103. @sockeye1

    Before reading, remember I'm a relative newby, just started trading this fall, thought I was a genius trader until May 1st... :-O

    I'm not comfortable with options, I've opened an account at optionshouse and I'll start doing some simulated options trading, my plan is to be ready to do options when QE3 kicks in, so I can score big and then cash out.

    I don't hold AGQ positions more than a couple months, so the decay thing doesn't really get to me. But I am becoming more cautious in general, 6 months ago I would have been all in today, and I would have made some bucks, but in this up&down situation, it's likely I would have lost just as much. I'm learning to look at trend lines during the day, I have some core positions that I'll ride up to $50 silver again, but I'm hornswoggled if I can figure out weekly trends.

    I do like AGQ and ZSL, the built in leverage lets you get in and out fast during a day with a decent gain, but I'm also learning to set stops, and lower my expectations about that gain.

    ReplyDelete
  104. i am really good at losing money. I finally buy puts and silver has an up day for once.

    ReplyDelete
  105. @sockeye1

    I guess a lot of the interest rate story will depend on the Fed... I'm guessing that even if they aren't purchasing Treasuries, they can find a way to keep the rate artificially low (someone mentioned that they might be shorting treasuries... wonder if they learned that from Blthye?). So the end of QE2 might not result in interest rates going up.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Any bets on whether we can stay above 37.50 in silver today?

    ReplyDelete
  107. I think someone was asking for any free candlestick chart websites the other day. Here's one:

    http://www.livecharts.co.uk/daily_charts/daily_charts.php

    Although, im not sure how good it is as i am only just beginning to read up on cadlesticks

    ReplyDelete
  108. Does anyone else think that some insiders are making a shitload of money off of these abrupt swings in gold?

    ReplyDelete
  109. this one has become my new favorite charting page for silver:
    http://www.futurespros.com/metals/silver-advanced-chart
    bollinger bands, rsi, macd all there under the 'studies' button

    set it to one minute intervals and watch the real time tape

    ReplyDelete
  110. 37.50 holding for now but rsi almost 60 on ten minute chart, Palin says thats a sell signal, I'm standing by,
    waiting for this silver pennant to close maybe next week?

    ReplyDelete
  111. dunno CD. a little profit taking before the close could cause some of today's gain to be given back. Then again, some short covering could cause it to pop some more.

    Judging by the way volume picked up after silver cleared that wall near 37 my guess is the rally will continue for now. Closing above 37.10 should bring some buyers back, imo...

    ReplyDelete
  112. SB, not trying to contradict Pailin, but RSI 60 in a choppy market isn't the same as RSI 60 in a rising one. And it doesn't mean the same thing to a day trader as it does to a swing trader. Not telling you what to do, except to make your own decisions.

    btw, what pennant are you referring to?

    ReplyDelete
  113. uptofreedom I was talking about Turds pennant up at the top of this blog, he just wrote 'pretty self explanatory' but thats what I took from it. Also Palin uses the 5 minute chart so he/she? must be swinging.

    just throwing this out there for swing traders, but in the grains arena wheat is trading at the very bottom of the BB. Not buying myself because I'm still a little green to venture outside the metals, but watching with interest.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Tommy: No QE means higher rates and lower bond prices. Exactly what Gross needs for his short position to be profitable.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Kiwi

    you are an old hand at it. take credit. You are ahead of the game. It sounds to me like you are doing very well. Keep working hard and I am sure you will be successful. this market is hardly started to move. there is a very long way to go.

    I like the idea of waiting for the big move and buying options for a couple of months.

    ReplyDelete
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    Judging by the way volume picked up after silver cleared that wall near 37 my guess is the rally will continue for now. Closing above 37.10 should bring some buyers back, imo...

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  159. And by the way, I was out of the country and 'off the watchtower' for a while but I could have sworn when I checked in here from overseas you had a new avatar- ole Bobby Lee or something? Anyway, thanks my man!
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  160. Yes...it seems the market is split on its flight to safety. It will be interesting on how the weeks unfold as to where the flight ultimately lands as QE2 ends. The pause period between liquidity injections will bring still greater movements as the reality sets in...
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