Monday, June 6, 2011

Oh Monday Morning...

...you gave me no warning of what was to be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h81Ojd3d2rY

As we begin what will surely be another unpredictable week in the PMs, there are just a couple of things to note. First, The Evil Empire has made it known that they do not wish to see gold trade above $1550. Why, exactly, this level is so important to them remains to be seen but their desire to suppress can clearly be seen on this hourly chart. Note how quickly that spikes UP to 1550 are quickly met with spikes down.

And look what I found in silver...a perfect pennant on the 3-hour chart. It's perfect in that the points line up almost exactly. As we've discussed here, pennants are interesting formations because they eventually close and the commodity in question has to break one way or the other. Usually, the break goes in the direction of the line with the greatest slope. In this case, the rising line of the bottoms slopes greater than the declining line of the tops. I'll try to update this chart several times per day as we go through this week  as it will give us clues for when silver will encounter resistance and when it will find support. For now, IF silver can clear 37.50, it looks clear for a run to 38.50 or so before it encounters the resistance of the down-sloping line.

Lastly, we had an interesting discussion here over the weekend regarding GLD and SLV.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/06/considering-gld-slv.html

I found this on ZH today and it furthers the conversation. You should take time to read both.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/js-kim-max-keiser-discusses-banker-manipulation-gold-silver-futures

As I close, I see that the PMs have spiked UPward (for a change) while I've been typing. I have lasts of 1547 and 36.93. Maybe Monday may still give us some kind of warning of what lays ahead.  TF

152 comments:

  1. Can in for a moment from tilling veg gaeden and lo no post yet and Ag is up.
    Hurray

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  2. Thanks again Turd.. positive week ahead for PMS and Turdites with the new site..

    when I finally make some money, I'll happily feed the Turd..

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  3. @flaunt
    $10-12 gold and 0.75 silver

    May not get that much right here though. If you have zero, I would start to nibble here. 1547/36.90

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  4. FREE SHIPPING with Lear Capital.
    Use Code: 8B74A
    Minimum order is $1500

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks LH. Trying to reestablish after getting kicked out last week.

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  6. finally a good ad on your site - Rand Paul's right to work petition

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  7. USD/jyp

    carry trade. borrow low interest rate in depreciating currency and invest in risk trade ie commodities.

    Recall that evening in Mid March. Harvey and zero hedge have comprehensive explanation of the dollar cross and the carry trade when happened. Look back to mid march.

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  8. BOFA holds $10.91 or its a double diamond slope to the 09 lows.

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  9. Thanks Turd - Happy Monday!

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  10. Looks like a retest of $38.50 this week....keeping my fingers crossed!

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  11. Good luck all. I have to take my father to the doctor. See you tonight.

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  12. Thanks Level, hope dads okay!

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  13. That high from 6/1 is 1551.60
    I have a high today of 1555 and a last of 1552.40.

    The alltime closing high is 1557.60.

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  14. Charts look like we are setting up for another .15-.20 move in silver in the next 10 mins or so.

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  15. Silver high so far is 37.29
    Needs to get through 37.42

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  16. Nice article on Bob Rodriguez, a mutual fund manager who is saying pretty much all the right things, and (unsurprisingly) being ignored.

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  17. Checking in from the vacation on the Eastern Shore. Beach is nice. Gold even nicer.

    Putting in bids on JAG at 4.86 and TRE at 7.03. Other than that, just watching NGD and CDE recover.

    Back to the beach.

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  18. Ladies and Gentlemen:

    The London PM Fix of 1549.00 is a new all time high!

    Not that these silly London Fixes really mean anything, but I'll take it.

    Word Ver: fienoess
    This day is starting off with a fienoess of .999!

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  19. Gold if take out 1568 I see 1583. fingers crossed.

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  20. ok, don't understanding my free chart to much, is that volume looking good on the rise up to 37.27??

    37.15 a good place to top up a little?

    w/v : TOATI : I'm not sure wasn't the dog in The Wizard of Oz called Toati?

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  21. crude below 99 again, last week crude moved down first and the metals followed

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  22. GSR nearly to 42 (41.65)...silver not keeping up w/ gold so far this a.m.

    Make sense?

    Does anyone else sense monkeys on the horizon? Will the EE bring the beat-down today around their seemingly typical time of around 11:30am to 12:00pm EDT?

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anyone have any thoughts as to why the JPM House account is amassing gold through the COMEX June delivery?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Gold ATH : 1577.57 @ 2 may according to BBG
    Silver ATH : 49.79 @ 25 Apr according to BBG

    ReplyDelete
  25. Monkeys are probing with their algos. Looking for line of least resistance.

    looks like rallying the equity mkt now as that is oversold.

    watch the $ they may rally that.

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  26. Save_Am

    GSR was 42+ at Friday close. This a.m. silver up stronger (%-wise) than gold, and now GSR 41+. Totally makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Bottomless barrel of crude...

    won't stop dropping...

    ReplyDelete
  28. Monkeys are still trying to maintain consolidation with silver...they wont attack until the 38.40 and that will be half hearted....watch next week....

    ReplyDelete
  29. i think i'm one of the few rooting for Blythe at the moment , i want gold below 1535, silver below 36 and crude below 98 so i can BTFD

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  30. Well lookie here...we breached 37!?

    We really need to keep this goin to surpass 38.50 to reach our 40s target again before the summer sojourn.

    Here's hoping.

    Wordver: ingerl - Looks like GOLD is the real ingerl around here. Hang on to the 1550 blonde sista!

    ReplyDelete
  31. Eric#1....

    ok...silver just seemed to be lagging at the moment behind gold more than I thought was usual.
    Starting to see a drop in both simultaneously now...I smell monkeys. They may be earlier than usual today! lol

    BTFD

    ReplyDelete
  32. @stevy: you do realise that it isn't ALWAYS about BTFD?

    There's also BTFB. Sometimes the latter can be considered the 'safer' option.

    Wordver: penti - i'm really diggin my hot pink penti's right now. wait...that didn't come out right. =P

    ReplyDelete
  33. Was just looking on Jim Sinclair's site, and low and behold, I see the crashing plane from Turd's post the other day regarding the POSX. Jim states that one of his readers sent him the pic.

    Your stuff really gets around, Turd! lol

    Link below:

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/06/06/jims-mailbox-713/

    ReplyDelete
  34. When does the bernank speak this week?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Lets all hope that what we think is a dip is an actual dip (IE, it goes back up again!)

    Otherwise its just a drop.. like an elevator shaft... hence.. SHAFTED...

    ReplyDelete
  36. DOWNEY UPDATE:

    The market is in a secondary upswing, but trade is the 1553-1557 resistance area. A close over 1557 is needed to spark rallies to a breakout attempt towards 1568-1577. A struggle to push over 1553-1557 will be the key. A FAILURE AT THIS LEVEL WOULD suggest setbacks to congestion around 1525-1533. Thus the potential for a double top near 1555 needs to be watched carefully. If we get a close above 1557, then the push to 1568-1577 will be in play going to mid week with the potential for higher towards 1592. As we discussed on the website -- those two spikes lower on the chart last week to the red channel line that WERE reversed back up higher was suggestive of bullish action. Thus the weaker trends due to begin so far have been contained and PRICE has to CLOSE below 1519-1536 before we can say the weaker trends are in play. Since I began the update, price has rallied to the 1553 area and is right at the 78% retrace level on the chart. A CLOSE above 1557 woould continue the uptrend. WATCH THE 1553-1557 area ---- that is the price turn point. UNTIL PRICE closes below the RED LINE on the chart --- the uptrend is still intact. If price is going to turn lower --- this area is the most likely place. Otherwise another push into Wednesday will come into play.

    Bearish traders are selling here at 1552 with stops at 1557.50 ---------- bullish traders are buying the 1533-1540 area with stops at 1516.

    In summary ---- as long as price is above 1526-1533 ---- the short term trend is still up. Watch 1553-1557 --- that's the key area if there is to be a turn lower today.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Turd's crashing plane was also referenced on Ed Steer's Daily on saturday. Gone Viral.

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

    Word Ver: lazin

    too easy...
    SSK lazin by the beach today

    ReplyDelete
  38. NM found the answer. Tomorrow afternoon in Atlanta, GA.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hilarious...gold getting squashed right at 1550. Silver at 37.

    ReplyDelete
  40. its the monkey hour and its going up?!

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  41. Ok so my sell for gold at $1550 hit too (the short term contract). I am letting the later gold ride. If we drop again I will buy another short term gold. For now I am out of silver with a loss - looking to re-enter either if it drops or confirms an upside. I don't see a confirmation in the cards any time soon. Corn is getting hit hard.

    Catism of the day: I will be ready to pounce on silver at the right moment

    ReplyDelete
  42. @ Shill

    You lucky bastard. I am long UBT and not happy. I just doubled down. It was a small position before, not so much now, lol.

    I need bad news from Greece to make $$ on this one...

    Good news is I managed to sell my CAD on Friday, so happy to see it lower today, and since I think oil is heading lower, I should be able to buy back CAD at a much better level, although 1.02 is proving to be a real bitch to get below.


    word ver: aciancoc ...think about it, no way I am gonna touch that one! (pun intended)

    ReplyDelete
  43. QE3 won't work because everyone knows that is just more borrowing. The Great Great Great Depression has arrived and there is no way to stop it. The delayed melt down is now going to be even worse.

    ReplyDelete
  44. @humahuaca

    LOL! thanks bro, hey how was the trip?

    ReplyDelete
  45. Once again it seems to me like PM's are doing remarkably well in the face of all that's going on.

    Very hard to analyze, but it just seems to me like they are holding up in good news and bad, whether dollar is strong or weak, whether oil is up or down. Hard to complain about that.

    If miners are down, I would guess that's due to Humala's win in peru. Take a gander at EPU, the Peru ETF, down 11% today. That's what I should have been trading for the last month...huge swings from $38 to $45 and back again, several times.

    It's a shame for Peru, they were just getting their act together. Several ex pats I know there will be moving out as soon as they can offload their apartments.

    ReplyDelete
  46. @ Shill

    Horrible trip actually. Layover in Miami was a nightmare. 2 hour line to go through immigration, and I was in transit, just connecting, it pisses me off.

    Then the luggage belt didn't work so I had to cart my luggage from one terminal to another and back again.

    Then my flight was cancelled due to mechanical problem.

    So it really was'nt a good day for me, lol. (Because seriously, I would have sold my UBT at 85 something. I had an order in at 86.00, then lowered to 85.70, but too late.)

    Aren't you glad you asked?

    ReplyDelete
  47. I find this tightening range trading in silver to be maddening. Which way does she break, and does she break before I do?

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  48. anyone watch NatGas at all?

    I shorted a small amount (I use HND on the TSX) this morning.

    It was all bad news for NG for so long, and now suddenly it's bid. I am way out of my depth with this one, but it's gone far enough that I am willing to dip my toe in once again. Will probably lose my foot, but no more as it is just a tiny position.

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  49. TO TURD,

    Hi there,

    not sure why you assume that silver should break out of its pennant formation... when i look at the two hour chart for silver i see this pennant to be a continuation of the bearish flag that started from our massive vertical drop at 50.. if so, then we should target 27 dollars... cheers, ... the slope is actually negative in that case.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Interesting comment on US banks' exposure to European debt: by Robert Peston

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13663002

    ReplyDelete
  51. 1553 close for gold doesnt look too good right now...

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  52. 3:00 AM EST - The thinnest time of the global trading period
    5:30 AM EST - The LONDON PHYSICAL PRICING FIX OCCURS - LONDON OPENS
    6:00 AM EST - HONG CONG TRADING CLOSES
    7:00 AM TO 6:20 EST - THE NY PREMARKET GOLD/SILVER FADE
    8:20 AM EST - THE NY COMEX OPEN GOLD/SILVER SLAM
    8:20 AM TO 10:00 AM EST - THE HIGHEST PROPORTION OF TRADING OCCURS.
    8:30 AM EST - THE MOST IMPORTANT U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS ARE RELEASED
    9:30 AM EST - NY STOCK EXCHANGE OPENS
    10:00 AM EST - THE LONDON P.M. FIX GOLD/SILVER SMASH
    The conclusion of global PHYSICAL trading of gold and silver
    12:00 AM EST - THE NEVER- FAILING END OF DAY CAPPING
    1:30 PM EST - COMEX TRADING CEASES
    4:00 PM EST - NYSE STOCK MARKET CLOSES
    5:00 PM EST - GLOBEX TRADING CLOSES
    6:00 PM EST - GLOBEX TRADING RESUMES

    Here is a little time chart that may help some of you with your trading decisions. For others, it will remind you when to expect the EE to commit their crimes and help you make sense of this insanity. Good Luck !!

    ReplyDelete
  53. SCCO southern copper down 8% plus, they have big Peru exposure.

    If you were a real gambler you might buy this and wait for a rebound when Humala assures everone that he won't nationalize.

    But that's when you'd have to sell, 'cause in 2 or 3 years he will nationalize, or just impose such onerous taxes that it will amount to the same thing.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Thanks ben. Much better than my post-its!

    FOAQG I sold early today and just got back in. Tried to hold for $36.80 silver but for the sake of a few cents it's a day trade.

    Word: imlyc

    I'm lycing this action.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Right on schedule. Sold the sgol at $155.00, will buy back after 1:30.

    ReplyDelete
  56. @Harald,

    SGOL high for the day is $154.33. Please let me know how you got $155.00

    ReplyDelete
  57. I don't like it when miners are not confirming the silver high open. That plus the strange surge in COT gold shorts seems to indicate an ambush sometime this week.

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  58. I sold sgol when gold was at $155.00. Sgol is about a buck behind. Sorry for the confusion, guess I was bragging a bit.

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  59. Was that a H & S top just created in the Gold? A failed attempt at new high?

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  60. My big concern is for what happens tonight in Asia given the slowdown in China. Do the metals get smashed overnight and does this carry through tomorrow in the US? Equities, oil, and miners not giving me a lot of confidence right now about the metals short term.

    If we do see a major rout in all risk assets in the coming weeks & months, I will be buying physical metals hand over fist as it will be the last chance to get metals in a fire sale.

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  61. I am always amazed, considering the fundamentals, at the incredible power of the EE. They never seem to run out of ammunition to attack the PM's. Daily they control the price with absolute precision. Rarely do they seem to lose control, although we are told by many they are close. It's like there is this huge weight on the PM's which keeps it from achieving its true potential. Like a millstone around it's neck.

    I am so sick of watching the PM's rise until we see crap such as is occurring as we speak. We are in the weakest time of year and right on schedule they attack with impunity. Just as my chart above indicates, true to form,, twice they attack once in the thinnest trading hours of 3 am est and now again at the daily capping starting at noon into the Comex close. Totally disgusting. Watch the volume increase disproportionally during these attacks. This is their signature every time. Is this the fourth time they cap Gold at 1500? Totally ridiculous !

    ReplyDelete
  62. Not really bragging, I'm just amazed at how the manipulation follows the script. TF has laid it all out so even I can make some short term money...which of course goes to buy physical. Before I started reading this blog I had no idea of this stuff existed.

    ReplyDelete
  63. @humahuaca

    I don't follow NATGAS closely, but I do believe it is about to enter a long term bull market. Japan is a big importer of LNG already and will become a bigger one now, and the US is about to become a big exporter. Also, the price of gasoline in the US is going up and vehicles will get converted to run on NATGAS, as T. Boone Pickens suggested.

    The commodity may remain cheap because the supply is huge, but those who handle it and supply hardware should do well. The two stocks I am looking at are WPRT and LNG.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Ben, it is disgusting isn't it. The noon swoon in June... and every day, week and month of the year. Then we can always count on the tag team takedowns at 3:00 am and 7:30 am.

    The gold and silver coils are getting very compressed.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Has anyone else noticed how Stockcharts now only shows line charts for key commodities and forex? No candlestick charts.
    I wonder what the reason is?
    Could now another important source of information be compromised? If no reasonable explanation is forthcoming one will have to wonder just how far the tentacles extend.
    I am referring to "free charts" I do not know about membership data.

    ReplyDelete
  66. I think the capping process is quite easy. Just set the algos to sell at any particular price and every bid gets absorbed. If you have an unlimited amount of money to do this with and a wink and a nod from the authorities, then they can cap the price anywhere they want to for as long as they want.

    The one thing they can't cap is the price of physical metal. There isn't an unlimited supply so buying what you can when you can removes, bit by bit, their ability to control the real metals market forever.

    It is the accumulation of physical that will set the price free.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Larry,

    God knows I would love to see these bastards go bankrupt with their lying and cheating, fraud and phoney fiat. There must be a way to make money with this pattern so often repeated almost daily now. I am sure some have figured it out, but the exact steps, who knows? I just buy and hold and forget about the short term manipulations, but still it pisses me off that they get away with this crime for so long and for so, so many times.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Accumulate Silver only. We will never gain control by Gold purchase. They own all the Gold. Silver = Achilles heel.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Another day in paradise, eh friends? Inertia bound for now.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Dennis, that is terrible advice. Gold is money, and it is guaranteed a place at the table when the current round of fiat currencies dies. Silver may or may not have a seat.

    As for the notion that "we" have any means of gaining control - it will never happen. The old banking families are massively wealthy and powerful, and short of ending their bloodlines, they cannot be defeated. The best we can realtistically hope for is to provide financial security for ourselves and our families.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Today's strange behaviors of mine.
    Sold some SLV Calls to cover a purchase of chunk of physical (Kilo bars).
    Bought puts on SLV to cover approx 40% of physical holdings.
    Short equities. Short JPM still :-)

    I feel that by this time next week we will see a significant downdraft in equities. I feel there may be some initial draw down in PM, but hoping for the best with only 40% coverage. Between now and then I may add to or lighten up on put insurance.

    If you are long equities, other than PM, I would spend some time to think about each holding.

    I could be early on this downdraft, but better early than late. I have mid July Puts on equities so I have a little time

    ReplyDelete
  72. I was a subscriber to Stockcharts for a while, it's the same for payers. I'm guessing they're only showing the closing prices for commodities and FX and you're right if someone wants a line chart they can look it up on Yahoo. They also don't show any interday activity. That's why I'm no longer a subscriber, much better charts out there for free.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Finally starting to learn. Sold 20 shares of AGQ at 198+ for a very small profit. 55 left from mid May with a basis of $268 (down from $311, thanks to advice on this forum to buy a little on the dips to avg down).

    ReplyDelete
  74. how much Silver to hold is enough? Just wondering... my wife doesn't see the virtue in it yet (although my PM gains thus far are blowing the doors off her mutual fund IRA/RSP)

    PS - this is my first post here, so please be gentle :) REALLY appreciate everyone's contributions here, esp. TF

    ReplyDelete
  75. @SSK

    The miners are really taking it in the chin, today; do you, like MB, see this as the precursor to a significant movement or is it rather just a bad day at the beach?

    ReplyDelete
  76. Mining shares being taken to the woodshed doesn't bode well for PMs. Feels like a trap is being set. Be careful please, especially leveraged players.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Does anyone have a clue WTF is going on in the miners? Is this dumping to cover margin everywhere else? Is it shorting? This morning I just thought it was EXK, and now I see everything is red while the metal is still far in the green. EXK is of course still leading the descent.

    Is there going to be a major drop again from here in the metal, or is the market just dying circa 2k8? I guess either way, an exit would seem in order for me. This is straight craziness on the first significant up day, and following the heels of last week's ankle grabbing.

    ReplyDelete
  78. In crude, it seems somebody wants it below $100 and it's finding strong support just under $99. Very repeatedly. Anyone else get the feeling that there's some pushing going on there?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Serfdom via student loans – Lenders going after Social Security and saddling college graduates with a debt albatross. Modern day debtor’s prison comes with a University degree.

    http://www.mybudget360.com/serfdom-via-student-loans-lenders-go-for-social-security-modern-debt-college-degree-student-loans/

    ReplyDelete
  80. @phranq,

    How much to hold is a personal decision and personally, I think you should be holding as much as you can afford, buying in increments over time, although time is running out.

    Your wife needs to spend more time on this blog and on ZeroHedge so she understands that her IRA/RSP will potentially become worthless at some point and why this will be the case.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Does anyone have a clue WTF is going on in the miners?

    ------------

    RVM Looks great.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Weak volumes, down time for prices. I expect a few weeks or a coule of months of this before an upturn.
    As much as any or all of us wish, prices can't go up indefinitely without going down.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Question regarding IRA's.

    We all know the government can do what they want and change the rules when they want. i.e. change tax rates, thus a major variable in the "stealing" of our IRA's (along with management fees, inflation, and the like).

    I would assume though that "raiding" of our Roth IRA's and changing the tax rules there would be much harder than "raiding" Trad IRA's, since increase taxes would be all it takes.

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  84. Tentative,

    I don't like this action with the miners at all. I'm trapped in several trades like CDE, JAG and now even NGD (which I will not sell).

    My one great fear is that the May sell-off isn't over. We had a temporary rally in the midst of a greater decline.

    Unless we see a FUBM soon, the trading from 3:00 to 3:35 and most likely until the close will be a continuation of a sell-off.

    Mondays have been awful for the miners lately. Just awful. The short sellers just have complete control at this time. All rallies are capped and short-lived. You cannot fight this market. It will steamroll you. I am looking to get out and fast. WIthout a FUBUM in the next twenty minutes, we are screwed for the day.

    ReplyDelete
  85. @Phranq -

    Depends on the person. I only have about three hundred ounces of silver, just to volatile for me. I like gold, it's probably not going to go down 30% in a week, and I don't have to watch the market all the time. Might buy more silver if it gets down to $25.00 which would put it close to the historical GSR. Not making a prediction, I just think that would be the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  86. @ Shill

    I lightened up on UBT and have improved my average so feeling better.

    I'm thinking weak economy, greece problems means it's better to be in UBT, but who knows these days.

    I was able to buy CAD once again at very close to 1.02, so that makes up for my UBT pain.

    I wouldn't be selling dollars here at all except for the fact that 1.02 has been strong resistance (for USD) and if we get a day or two of no bad news we should get a little stock rally which might help commodities and currencies like CAD and AUD.

    ReplyDelete
  87. @shill

    When miners act like this it's usually someone with EE connection front-running a coming PM raid.

    ReplyDelete
  88. 1/3 of my gold position taken away this morning @ 1551.5 while I was out; trying to buy some more below 1543.50; own more July corn at 7.36; still long WTI and silver; not just doing something, standing there.

    Beautiful day in NYC today for the field trip; looking over the waterfront, was reminded that, 67 years ago today, better people than me faced worse weather, and a worse waterfront, in Normandy.

    Thank you, Vets, both from then and thereafter.

    ReplyDelete
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