Monday, April 25, 2011

Here We Go

Keep an eye on things tonight and get ready for a very volatile week. Watching the PMs over the next few days will not be for the faint of heart.  TF


Wow, I've written some stuff over the past few months that has worked out pretty well. I'd say this close from last night's note ranks right up there.


After spiking almost to $50 overnight, silver has been clawed back to a low of $47.80 this morning. We've seen this countless times before since August. It just seems more dramatic because the price is now so high.
It looks like this:
Silver rallies off of a three-day or regular weekend (think back to President's Day as an example) and then plummets as soon as the prop desk monkeys hit their desks at 7:30 EDT. Like clockwork.
In fact, evidence of the coordinated attack is clear when you see that gold and silver were first hit at the exact same freaking moment, 7:35 EDT:
OK, so here's what you need to watch. Silver is going much higher but maybe not today. Again, pattern suggests that in the 2-4 day time period before first notice day, silver sells off as The Cartel attempts to "convince" weaker-handed longs to roll out of the current month. No reason not to think this won't happen again. In fact, as I type, I have no position in silver calls or futures. I'm waiting for this dip.


If I had to guess, the dip will come on the back of a margin increase from the goons at the CME. It won't/can't be a puny little increase, either, as the market will simply shrug it off if it is. No, it will likely be more substantial this time. In fact, you've already got Disinformation Agents like this shill practically begging for one:
http://www.businessinsider.com/rein-in-rampant-speculation-or-face-the-black-silver-swan-2011-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+%28The+Money+Game%29
All in the name of the greater good. "Please, CME. Save us from an overall market collapse by reining in silver."


So, stay nimble. There are a lot of fresh, new longs in the silver market. They are not grizzled veterans like you and I. IF The EE/CME can get the ball started downward, the weak hands will panic and silver will drop very quickly. I will be waiting for them and I will gladly buy their silver from them at the levels below:
I would first expect support at the point of the gap UP on last nights open, around 46.60. I would give my right arm for a chance to buy some silver at 45.50. (Do you recall that The Wicked Witch gave you that level back on Saturday? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk) It will take a lot of courage to step up and hit the bid there as every douchebag topcaller in the world will already be proclaiming that the "silver bubble has popped".
Regardless, IF I can get a dip to buy, silver should then rally back to and maybe even through $50 by later next week.


So, stay nimble. This might be an event better watched from the sidelines for the next few days as its certainly going to be wild. Much more later. TF



237 comments:

  1. Irene

    You are thinking about swapping more gold FOR silver? I gotta tell you, I'm thinking more and more about when and how big to go the other way. But that's only because I bought most of my silver at around 60:1. When we first talked about it, what was it? 40:1?

    Let's turn that ratio around on it's head for a bit. Just keeping to round numbers, you went in at .025 (40:1), with an eye toward .05 (20:1), for a double. So far, it's working out nicely and you are at .033 (30:1) for a 33% gain. But still you feel it can go to a 100% gain.

    Now forget that it's silver or gold for a minute and put it in the abstract. Could be any Joe Blow stock. You think it's going to be a double, you are up 33% so far, do you add to your position? That's for you to decide, but I think for a lot of people they would say "Hell Yeah, add to a winner".

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  2. Well,
    I am getting roasted with my AGQ shares purchased 10 minutes ago. But I think I'll just ride it out this week.

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  3. Thanks, Turd....
    Watching the moves from last night till now is just amazing....

    These early morning raids are clear as day...Could someone refresh my memory on when the other possible raid times are?

    That would be apart from any margin announcement....

    THANKS!

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  4. Took a nice little profit on SLV April 29 50Calls bought on Thursday. Now sidelined.

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  5. Good to have ya back on board Happy! Some joker has been putting pennies on the track all morning though...Wish I had some more powder lying around!

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  6. Hi Turd,

    You didn't mention anything about the USDX last night. What's going on there?!

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  7. Eric #1.....Bill Haynes said at this point it a tossup on which way to go, gold or silver...

    Another aspect of this:
    Awhile back had a discussion with one of his brokers about "aggressive" vs. more "conservative"--

    70/30 Silver to Gold aggressive
    60/40 silver to gold conservative

    very conservative
    60 gold/40 silver

    Just one view...

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  8. Big volume. 65000 or so in one volume bar on netdania. If they push it down with another 20000 contracts or so, this is the dip you've looking for, as they've never used more ammo than that for their smackdowns, and they'll begin buying back those shorts.

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  9. Whoa. Nice shot, Rupprecht! Comin back atcha.. ;)

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  10. Go get them Turd. I am waiting for this dip ready to buy.

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  11. Let's see. Ag moves to almost $50.00 before the New York open and as I write this (1000 EDT, SLW is down a nickel. As Annie Hall said, "la-di-da, la-di-da." So trading globex futures is what the silver market in the US has become to make any money? How exciting.

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  12. Gotta believe there are buys sitting at the bottom of that gap at 46.60. Good luck to the traders. I like watchin these days...

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  13. Btw, it's a good dip, but I won't use it because I already recently bought around that level.

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  14. BTW: London not open today. I know this courtesy of atlee. Thank you, sir.

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  15. In the last 9 hours, we have moved 3 dollars down from silver's peak.

    A day feels like a long time now with this kind of movement. Volatility, here we come. All things clear starting May regardless of what King Bernanke says. The world is dumping the dollar day by day, faster and faster (No more China will keep buying our debt argument for the shills).

    The thing that should comfort all who are worried about a big raid is the fact that gold is holding so strongly. 1510 was our cap last week and we only went 5$ below the cap on the first raid attempt after hitting fresh new highs right beneath the "1521 Angel Step". For those feeling queezy about the volatility of silver, be sure to realize that gold still has an important part in silver's overall price direction. Tested an important number, and now are holding above 1500 shows just how real this rejection of fiat currency has become.

    Scott

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  16. GPL isn't having a good day. Thinking of buying some more if it hits old support around 3.60. Hopefully this stock is still worth it.

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  17. (With apologies to the Beatles...):

    Bang bang Turdites' Silver Hammer
    came down upon Blythe's head.

    Bang bang Turdites' Silver Hammer
    mad sure that she was...bankrupt!

    -Mammoth

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  18. I'm still sidelined as well. Tempted to buy in now but no margin call news yet.

    I have to agree with Turd, it is comming and it will be a substantial. If this isn't the margin call news dip than the big one is still to come..

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  19. 46.91, but hit below that... nailbiting towards Turd's first support

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  20. I for one welcome this downturn, as a long time Silver enthusiast I do not want Silver to get to ahead of herself. I am very pleased with the current run up and I am long Silver, but I would prefer she stay level, meaning..Slow down a little. Sorry if others do not share my view.

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  21. Nimble indeed!

    Buy silver, gold and land.

    www.thegraystonefarm.com

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  22. Hey Eric #1 and Irene. I traded my gold for silver a few months ago based of a newsletter Ted Butler put out. He put out another one this weekend and still recommended switching from Gold to Silver as he thinks the ratio will continue to tighten for a variety of reasons.

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  23. shill, i agree with your view. I have been waiting and waiting to buy the dip!

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  24. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  25. many thanks to the Turd for his running commentary. I sold much of my silver stuff, PSLV,SLV and CEF preMarket, very early and am grateful. I begin to understand this delivery pattern now, many thanks. Its still a manipulated Market but thanks to the Chinese, there is alot of buying.

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  26. drudgereport has alot of interesting top link articles this am

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  27. Mammoth

    Big smile! :))

    (As always, we recommend passengers keep their seatbelts fastened at all times, however.)

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  28. Options Update From The Newbiest Newbie:

    Just sold my Jun 46 SLV calls placed on Thursday. Had 5 contracts.. Closed for a small profit of $400.00. $1K acct. balance now $2350.00.

    I know this is small potatoes to most of you. Don't laugh!

    I'm still in the GAME, OldNavy!.. and that volatility was making me run for the dramamine. But... that account balance is climbing ever so slowly!! !! :]]

    ...Thank you Turd for analysis.. I am in your debt and going to wait on the side for a possible forecasted dip!

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  29. Pretty nauseating SLW action going on right now. I'm sitting tight at this point until the qtrly. report 5/9.

    After that crazy midnight action we get a kick to the gut first thing this a.m.
    More fireworks ahead.

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  30. Scotia Mocatta's website now states they have Ag bullion in 1oz, 5oz, 10oz 1kg and 100oz in stock. In the past, this would signal a major raid is forthcoming. When Ag hits its next low they will put the "out of stock" sign up again.

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  31. Good thing those banks involved in that GPL dilution paid $4.20 per share. They must be pleased with the 11% loss so far.

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  32. 47 is here now.Is 45 really possible next few days??

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  33. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  34. I have been in physical since spot was around $18...I waited for the longest time for it to go up. When it started going up I was so happy to see the value of my silver going up too. Now that the price has been going up in increments of $3 a week the past couple of weeks, and then up almost $2.60 this morning when I woke up, it makes my anxiety go OFF THE FUCKING CHARTS! It's like watching a train wreck is slow motion.

    I don't like where this country/world is going to. But I sure am glad I am fully leveraged in silver.

    $50 dollar silver is almost here my friends...I'll see you on the other side.

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  35. Another great call Turd !

    Everybody hang on !

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  36. ok. wish i hadn't bought the expensive ticket round 9:30 because now I'm in lower than I sold Friday and would feel like such a genius. NOT. 25% more in.

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  37. Corrected Version:


    Hi Insight
    cc:Irene

    You are the former insightanalytical on this blog aren't you? Seen you a lot lately after it seemed like you were gone for a while. Nice to have you back big time.

    Yes, for me personally, it feels like a toss up too. But it's different for different people depending on when they went into silver in the first place. Irene is mostly a gold bug like me, and only recently made a significant swap into silver. My feeling is if Irene wants to add more silver, I would do it now while the GSR is still north of 30:1, or not at all.

    Eric

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  38. Well... Mr. Pig meet Mr. Slaughter. I should have gotten out at 8:30

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  39. Ginger

    And you "got game", I know you do! :)

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  40. holly cow epic beatdown right now

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  41. looks like we may not have to give our right arms!

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  42. Listen! Listen! Its the sound of the silver bubble bursting!

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  43. I just basically bought the whole house.

    It goes down some more, I'll buy the whole city :).

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  44. my futures platform just announced that silver margin is now 100%. Not sure if this is true for every broker or not

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  45. Getting the ugly feeling retail is going to take it hard today. Hint: we are retail

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  46. I have been trading SLW the last few months and have been sorely disappointed, so last week I decided to try a new strategy. With silver at 45 I bought 10 $42 puts (SLW was around 43) and bought 10 SLV $50 calls. The thinking being SLW is not tracking up with silver but getting hit hard when silver drops.

    Sure enough this morning I sold my SLV up $700 (to bad I couldn't sell these before market open grr) while my SLW puts were almost exactly even despite the huge move up in silver. Now with silver at 46 SLW is plummeting and even though it was below 46 when I bought the puts I'm up several hundred on the puts. Makes no sense but I'll probably try it again after the run up over $50 later this week.

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  47. Agophillic

    Hang on to that physical, pardner. $200 Ag is coming...

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  48. Turd waiting with orders for July silver calls that should get filled IF silver can make it to 45.50

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  49. trollercoaster it's the sound of Turd's words echoing. Go watch the video.

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  50. I wonder how much paper was written to accomplish what we are seeing on the charts?
    A liitle break maybe until early afternoon.

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  51. If we don't hold 47.25 into the close then the chart has been destroyed for this week. It's still early in the big picture, but it's obvious there were plenty of weak hands in this market today.

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  52. "blister said...
    my futures platform just announced that silver margin is now 100%. Not sure if this is true for every broker or not"

    Don't spread panicked. I just checked margins on all contracts in my trading program, they're they same at 11k inital and 8k maintainance.

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  53. Troll & Myron

    Scare us some more! Oh, please!

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  54. More than $4 from the high to the low, wow!

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  55. Hey Turd, how did you get those levels of 67-70 you talked about by June ? Thx Neil

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  56. BTFD!

    I could not wait until 45.5, and picked up a handful at 46.5.

    thanks for the great charts!

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  57. Eric#1 yes, I was Insightanalytical and still am for my wordpress blog, but had to create a new blogger acct. to be able to post here!

    Thanks for all your advice! I know very little, but am smart enough to try to read and understand.

    Was not around because my mom had an angiogram and then she fell a few days ago! 89 years old.

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  58. Don't panic Myron, when silver gaps up on a weekly chart, there's a very high probability of finishing green.

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  59. Hey Turd - why July calls instead of June?

    Much Obliged, sir!!!

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  60. A bounce $45.65...good call Turd hope all you out there with the ability just BTFD!

    Old Navy-

    Young AF here...my silver is heavily guarded, some may say to a leathal extent. I'll see your $200 and raise it to 1m when hyperinflation comes...

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  61. I am sitting on my hands today, standing firm with my core holdings. No buys - no sells.

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  62. @ Eric and Insight and Jimmy

    Eric,

    Thanks for the post. I always really appreciate your thoughts. I've decided to hold our gold/silver physical exactly as it is and buy more SLW on the dip. SLW is well-priced this morning, I'm in no rush to cash anything out and am confident that it will do well long term.

    Insight and Jimmy,

    Yes, I heard that interview too! Who you gonna love more, gold or silver? Well, I've been a gold gal for a while now and my heart tends to be pretty constant. ;)

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  63. OldNavy,
    I'm starting to really understand what you said about volatility being 'our friend'. ...Without all that volatility you could not sell nearly so high ...or buy back in at nearly so low. ....I'm also learning not to get emotionally attached to my trades. ..COOL stuff! :}

    But, I remain humble. This volatility can, I fully realize, smack me silly!

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  64. Bouncing back to 46.30

    Was very close to calling my broker, but watching for a margin call, hopefully when I'm NOT at the dentist today!
    By some dumb luck, when I still owned SLV, I caught a $2 drop on a margin call and bought some more then...
    this time, buying the physical will be trickier...

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  65. IS THIS IT??

    PM Selloff Reason: CME To Raise Margin Requirements For Silver From $5,000 To $6,500
    Tyler Durden's picture
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/09/2010 16:23 -0400



    And if that doesn't work, there is always confiscation.

    "CME confirmed silver margins raised from $5000 to $6500 (30%) effective 11/10 settl - no other metals effected"

    Presumably, this affects the maintenance margin. And is a lovely way to kill paper longs.... but not shorts, of course.

    This is also the last remaining self-regulating way for the market to tell the genocidal lunatic in the Eccles building to go fornicate himself, and his excess liquidity.

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  66. Sorry, I misread the date....lol....JEEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  67. Just my 2c but it may pay to keep some powder dry, even from here. Remember we haven't seen anything from the FOMC yet, and if they play games to boost the dollar, or God forbid if they pretend to end QE in a big announcement, USDX will go up and our PMS will go down, perhaps very hard. Beware the power games being played above our level, and watch your leverage in case they try to pull a fast one this week.

    Ultimately we will win. Just tread carefully in the short-term, my friends.

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  68. Miners are getting beaten up. ..At least mine are. "/ whoa.

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  69. Blood red all over the charts, but try to remember this is a good thing. It washes weak longs out and gets CNBS off the "super-shiny-wonderful" subject for a bit too. I hated that they were talking about silver in such glowing terms as recent as 9:31 am :)

    If you're holding, keep holding. If you have powder, find your comfort point and buy. Don't over-leverage (or leverage at all!)

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  70. What do you think the Bernanke's response will be to a reporter asking him about where future buying will come from if China wants to reduce holdings?

    For this reason, I feel he will address it before in a prepared way that is air-tight to what he wants. Then again, not that the questions are independent and not staged themselves.

    I really am curious if he will enact new policy.

    On a side note, the sun has risen again today. Remember, this is all just in our minds (as society is just a representation of our collective consciousness). Be sure to have your daily dose of remembering that all of this market nonsense and world affairs are made up and should not be the only reality that we live in.

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  71. When do we get back into PSLV??

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  72. Sold my SLV calls (May 50 @ 0.74 -- bad timing, May 55 @ 0.43 -- not so terrible).

    The front month silver contract dipped to $45.645. I am thinking that may be as good as we get.

    Is what we are seeing the selling in anticipation of the margin hike that seems sure to come? Or is there yet another leg down?

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  73. kitco spot silver bid 45.67
    Ebay spot silver 1 oz bid 57.15

    Uh, yeah.

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  74. all miners done for imo. no more explosive moves left unless buyouts or earnings pop.Choose wisely

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  75. 9000 Silver Eagles sold at APMEX in the past 8 hours. Hope you bought the fucking dip!

    Here's comes the rally.

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  76. Ginger

    yes, my miners all stink too. :(

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  77. @pining-
    Priming the FRN cartridges now.
    Will end up buying more physical ASAP.
    I held off buying hard on Saturday due to the dip this week.
    I just bought some but not alot.
    Dry powder will either go into silver physical or silver options.
    Might also add gold if Ben Bernank really proclaims nirvana.

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  78. I still say we come back and close green today.

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  79. The asians are steering the bus in the silver market and will take the price over $100-KWN

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  80. As a newbie to options trading I was wondering if there was a way to view the historical price (charts) on a certain call/put. I can't find a site that will do it. Yahoo says there aren't available and most other places don't even show that. Just wondering. Thinking of dipping my feet in on some slv calls if it goes down a little more. Thanks.

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  81. Just bought AGQ at 330.... wish me luck :)

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  82. Turd, I should have listened to the sound advice this morning. 3 weeks ago I made my first profit in the silver minis and have been on the sideline ever since.

    Sunday night when I saw the action I was lured in and had a nice stop in place. Well that stop was blown out of the water and I was re-educated on taking gains at my pre-established profit %.

    I will get back in on this action but after the May expiration and volatility is sucked out. (Also considering the physical silver, any recommendations on the best way to buy the physical?)

    One other thing, I will no longer use stops but instead alerts. It seems those stops may be big targets for the traders out there...

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  83. Put in a limit order for AGQ at 330 and just 30 minutes later... BANG, POW... filled.

    A great BTFD in my eyes...

    Opens around 362, bought at 330, down to 326, back up to 337.42 a few minutes later...

    Gotta love this game!

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  84. We saw a $3+ jump from Thursdays close to last nights midnight spike and then we dipped approx $4 in less then 18 hours.

    Is it possible we just saw "the" correction. They never seem to last that long and have been getting shorter in duration.
    We'll see.

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  85. For all the JV traders (like me):

    I just went long a few more SLV JUL calls (made an initial buy on some right at mkt open). That's it for now. I'm going to hold my fire to see what BM & BS (Bernanke) can do this week. If they don't produce, I'll go in with the rest of my trading reserve and ride the silver rocket.

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  86. Great day to buy some miners on sale. In that they were already on sale, there are some pretty attractive buys out there. Minera Andes has taken a hit over a union stike, but this will be worked out in time. For now, the stock is a great buy.

    What a joke today, right? Watched my board reverse from open to now. But why get angry: everyone in best of breed miners for anything other than the short term is being handed a major gift.

    Buying some of these miners now if like buying silver at under $20: OMG what a no brainer!

    Hasta La Vista Turdinistas! Eric, Irene, Justin, Chin: hope you are all well and kickin'!

    Keep Stackin': metal AND miners that is.

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  87. What the hey ?!?
    So I go out to see some Bollywood chickadees and canned Lebanese chickpeas only to see blood all over the Silver dance floor!? Sheesh!

    Damn you Blythe!
    Damn you Ruprecht!
    Damn you...uh uh...lovers of Bolivars!

    Do we Asians have to do EVERYTHING??

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  88. oldNavy: didn't mean to leave you off, best regards and wishes to you Sir as well!

    Scott: you too bright young Brotha

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  89. Let's be careful out there people.

    Remember that the Fed has a big huge wonderful day coming up on Wednesday. Prior to that the antics will be beyond belief. They might come out and really clock everybody upside the head with a big surprise.

    Patience is the key here. Hold your positions, time your entries, have some dry powder, stay away from the leverage here or you WILL get slammed.

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  90. A massive margin hike rumor coming later today could be the reason in the sell off early on.
    Anyone heard any news on that?
    For the PM's and crude to quickly reverse like they did I would think something must have happened or is about to.
    The PO$X isn't really moving so this strikes me as kind of a strange interaction or lack of.

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  91. @blog4u

    I think Tulving.com has some of the lowest premiums on size purchases

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  92. Eric,
    I still gotta believe that these miners will perform in time. I just don't see how they CAN'T ..given time and the silver rocket ride.

    I may be missing something though. It's just a sit and hold deal for me (and buy when I can). Sure is difficult to see silver at these levels though with miners barely noticing. "/

    Turd = Right: ...Watching the PM game in ANY arena........is not for the faint of heart!

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  93. Kitco seems about 10 minutes behind the actual live silver price.

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  94. @JoeKa
    No kidding! If we hand a cheap market over to Asia tonight, how much BTFD will you guys do???

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  95. Imagine what we would be experiencing right now if the Comex,Lbma,Slv,Gld,JPM,and the Fed all went broke. Regardless of how much money you make gaming this manipulation, the end goal should be the destruction of these criminal organizations.

    I still get angry at these in your face criminal smashdowns of the PM's giving these thieves another day to keep their fiat illusions all over the world intact. The fiat fraud is what gives these bastards the power to do this criminal manipulation, which when you stop to think about it, is causing a lot more poverty than you realize while you profit from the volatility. All this manipulation would not be possible with out the fiat fraud, nor would it be necessary.

    Do you know how much wealth is stealthily transferred from the average Joe to the very poor by this criminal conduct? If we had had real money in circulation the last hundred years instead of Fed fiat, every one of you would have inherited from your ancestors a vast fortune and a standard of living equal to the Queen of England. Few can extrapolate what would have been had the criminals not been allowed to come in and steal the wealth of the greatest nation to have ever existed in all of human history.

    Now we are experiencing before our very eyes the result of this incredible vast criminal enterprise and its destructive results.Regardless how we personally may have protected ourselves from this disaster, none of us shall be better off because of what has been done, as we witness the pain and misery of our less wise and less fortunate neighbors who did not prepare or know how prevent this crime from destroying them.

    Please do not misunderstand, I too have and am making a fortune from this situation, but would give it all up to have what would have been had these criminals had not been so successful.

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  96. Mike, on thinkorswim at least you can click the option and select 'quick chart' to see the history on an option. You can do this on their free platform as well it just won't show up to the minute accuracy (which you dont need for that anyway)

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  97. PftF: thanks Mate. Damn, how did I leave you off???

    Been busy trying to get some work b4 the NYS unemployment runs out... So I just got my NYS insurance license as it appears I'll be selling for the Aflac duck!

    Best to all my Turd Town friends. Not to mention the Big Turd too.

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  98. I just moved everything back into AGQ at a average price of $336.96 or around $46 silver (splitting the TURD bottom between 45.50-46.60,lol), I'm glad to be back in, I'm holding until $50-$55 and not trading in and out, so I can take a hit, even if silver tanks to $40...

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  99. I love it. If that's the worst the EE can do, then let me have more of it!

    By the way, I do not know if there has ever been a trading day with over 200000 contracts volume. If not, this will probably be the first one.

    Shows you how desperate they are. They basically dropped the entire OI on it and they accomplished was to get it back to where it was at the end of last week.

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  100. Just informed this morning that Lind increased silver margins to 1.5x normal on ALL silver contracts once you go over 10. They said it was on Wednesday, but I didn't get the memo.

    Kinda nasty, no? I mean, how do you pick up contracts 1-10 once you have 11?

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  101. Apmex just flat ran out of 2011 Silver Eagles...they had 9100 last night.

    About 300 one hundred ounce bars went out the door as well. Oh, and they somehow added 1400 new bars on Sunday night. How do these guys know a raid is coming?

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  102. @Pailin: not after the corporate fools Stateside finish blowing smoke outta their butts and get the heck outta the way of the REAL buyers of Precious Metals in Asia friend.

    And thats a fact! :)

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  103. I just saw that Orofino Gold spiked quickly to $.35 after being at $.10 approx a week ago.

    Pretty sick to my stomach right now.
    It will pullback a bit I hope unless the test results are about to come out.
    It's a sleeper.

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  104. I would love to see a monster FUBM today that takes down all the organizations I mentioned in my last post. That is my dream and desire even if I lose a day trading advantage gaming this manipulation. I for one, am sick of these criminal takedowns no matter how good they might be for the overall positive trend of this PM bull.

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  105. (said in Kirk voice)

    BLYYYYYYYYYYTTTTHE!

    Seriously, great buying op, picked up some more AGQ at 334 once I was comfortable that the trend was up.

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  106. Gold closing the pit over $1500 (like it did on Friday) is big. Every day gold closes over $1500 is big.

    That becomes the rock where people start to ask themselves, "Are the PMs NOT topping? Aren't these miners going to have huge profits?"

    The price action in silver is just too unbelievable.

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  107. My opinion on GPL is that there isn't much support until 3.40 area, and then only buy part of what you want. Should be strong support at around 2.90 from the Dec double top.

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  108. The $8 dollar rally cycle that I've pointed out was due to top today and correct back down toward $46. Hopefully this consolidation level is silver getting it's footing in place to take us to the next target of $54 by May 8th.

    Welcome back ecw58, nice to see you posting again!

    ReplyDelete
  109. Hey turd, if below 1500 in gold is the scary number what would the price of silver have to go to to scare silver buyers?

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  110. ewc58
    Howdy pardner. Hanging tough today. Only thing on my mind is if and when to add some more CEF. Holding fire at this point. Want to see the whites of her eyes. Also a couple bids in on some ebay gold at melt. We'll see if any of that pays off.

    Not touching my miners.

    ReplyDelete
  111. And remember, as Turd has said and I for one fully agree, this is just the slight pause before much much higher prices in the summer and overall later this year.

    I personally bought at 45,9 (was out in the sun with the laptop and wasn't quite so quick to catch what I wanted, 45,65), but everything around 46 is a screaming buy.

    Make sure you're in this thing and not on the sidelines, when it goes off.

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  112. I think there's 1 more beat down to go..

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  113. Justin, like your math.

    Eric: you must be a new man post 4/18

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  114. Hey ewc! Great to see you again. Good luck on the AFLAC. (Isn't that primarily insurance if you lose your job? Irony of ironies.)

    Okay, I did what I could to help the cause. Left my physical untouched, % unchanged, BUT found some more cash and bought TFD. Goodness, I'm living like a pauper, lol! Why spend money when you can buy pms and pm stock?

    Seriously, you know the goons in Washington are just too corrupt/too stupid to watch after the country's good. Next time around, Washington ain't gonna be given the kind of power to mess with the economy and our currency like they can now.

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  115. Shorts Market is so...broken, lol.

    46.75 and up we go!

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  116. Why is it broken?
    It's allowing you to make money isn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  117. From Walter Burien of CAFR1...

    Here is one for the Market history books!


    Friday 04/22/11 Silver on the NY COMEX exchange, May 2011 contract settled at 46.60 after having a run up from a recent low of around $17.50 back in July of 2010 nine months ago and the bottom before that was in the low $8 range back at the end of 2008.

    The following picture is a snap shot of a silver chart that covers from Friday 04/22/11 a little bit before the close, Sunday's night session 04/24/11, and this morning up until 7 AM Central time. A recap of the prices as seen are:
    http://CAFR1.com/Pictures/Silver042511.jpg


    1. Friday shows a low of about 46.05 before the close and a close of 46.60.

    2. Sunday's night session (the prices at the top of the chart are for Sunday) shows a low of 47.12 with a run right to 47.50 that happen within a minute or two after the opening.

    3. Then a steady climb to 47.90 by about midnight, and THEN an upward explosion to set the high of 49.82 at about 1:15 AM this morning 04/25/11.

    So, just from Friday after around the close (46.05) till the high was set early this morning, a move of about $3.80. A silver futures contract on the COMEX is 5,000 oz of silver. A $1 move equates to $5000. What just took place was about a $3.80 in a few hours or $19,000 per contract. Being a futures trader of 32 years and prior CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) of 14 years, this move in silver last night and since July 2010 (a $32 move or $160,000 per contract) is a history making event. As of this writing at 10:36 AM Central time silver backed off from the high hitting a new low of $45.64 or about $4.20 from the top ($21,000 per contract).



    http://cafr1.com/Pictures/Silver042511B.jpg


    Is this a short term top? Probably so..

    I would expect the volatility to be rather severe at this point. $4 and $5 back-offs and run-ups could become the standard.

    Support for silver's price at this time? I would guess about $41.50 to $42.

    The prior high price in silver set back in 1979 was about $50. As I noted in my past Market Rants post put out back in 2008 / 09 when I was calling the bottom of the silver Market between $8.85 and $7.65 and suggesting that all take delivery of silver contract, the objective I put out at that time was that fro then to 2014 if $115 was hit profits should be taken. I did note silver's price could hit $125 / $135 but don't get greedy. Cover at $115. When it tops out it will probably have a sharp correction very fast back to $70.

    For those of you that are sitting on some old pre 1964 US Coins, here usually $1 of coins = 1 oz of silver. So, just on silver scrap value a $1 Eisenhower would have a $50 silver value. Many coin dealers and especially pawn-shops will only offer 40% to 60% of the cash silver value. They will make the profit on the difference.

    If you have a large quantity of old silver coin you want to cash in, it is better to send it directly to a reputable smelter. Usually they charge $250 per smelting order and give market price minus 1% on the silver. So, if you had $1,000 in face pre-1964 silver coins, and silver is at $50 per oz that is $50,000 and shipping to a smelter UPS with insurance is about $100 + $250 smelting charge and deducting 1% $500 = $850 and the smelter would be issuing you a check for $49,250 so that makes a very big difference as to the cash that you get back in return from the melter over selling to a Pawn or Coin shop if you have some quantity of silver coin.

    We are watching history in the making per this move in silver.

    Sent FYI from,

    Walter Burien - CAFR1
    P. O. Box 2112
    Saint Johns, AZ 85936

    Tel. (928) 445-3532

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  118. When it jumps 50 cents in 5 minutes, it's broken. Control has been lost and/or the temptation to cover is too great.

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  119. Myron, - regarding chart reading. Stewart Thompson has said now that we are entering Stage2-3 of the great bull using charting methods that you used for Stage 1 will not work as well and top callers will all get blown away. Chapman is looking for 50 to fall easily he said this weekend and besides, at these levels the volatility will be huge since the price is untethered and there are no geriatric sellers from 79' still living in the 50 area.

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  120. Melting silver coins is nuts AND PLAIN STUPID! On eBay people are paying PREMIUMS OVER SPOT, HELLO.

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  121. Irene
    Swapping Silver for Gold seems a little like gambling, but then again I have a pretty thick skull.

    Just an amateur here so my opinion isn't much, but I would instead keep my stack of shiny PM's and instead convert other resources into Silver & Gold - whether these be hubby's old toy collection, that antique lamp in the back of the upstairs closet or even that classic old car that just sits in the garage taking up space for nine months out of the year.

    -Mammoth

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  122. I think you missed the jib of my jab.

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  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  124. As a coin dealer myself, I pay spot for silver coins. It's easy money. Why accept 49,250 when I can give you 50,000 even?

    Best choice though is eBay. You'll gross 50-52,000 even for junk silver.

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  125. No disrespect, Financial Dude, but if Mr. Burien is not aware that pre-1964 coins contain 90% silver by weight and around 0.715 - 0.723 ounces per dollar face value, you should NOT be basing many investment decisions on his analysis.

    Also, bullion dealers are buying 'junk' at about 5% below spot, and selling @ 2% below, so getting 40%-60% would mean that you are a) desperate b) an idiot. Great info on smelters - does he have any specifics he suggests?

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  126. All you folks who bot AGQ in that 335 area, GREAT JOB!!

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  127. ewc58

    Yes, post 4/18 I'm Looking Good Billy Ray!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmMS9nvi6eg

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  128. Jim Avila on The View saying speculators are driving gas prices up.

    Says prices will be back to normal this summer.

    On The View. Where I always go for finance advice.

    Hey wait. what? dip over and I didn't get my $45.55??

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  129. Quick question!
    At what price spot does AGQ at 335 area correspond?

    Did that question make sense?

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  130. We definitely have one more big leg down, whenever CME raises margin requirements. I'd (almost) bet an oz that it has to happen today or tomorrow right after 1:30 COMEX close. These things are so joined at the hip, it's like watching puppets dance :)

    The only question is will they be able to use that as cover to get below 45.50?

    If you look at Netdania 8hr silver volume, you'll see two other days in April with the same volume (04/18, 04/12) and then you've got to go all the way back to March 15 (when XAG bottomed on Japan-quake) to see the same/higher volume. This morning was the big one. It's not to say they can't do the same again tomorrow or try games in Globex, but they didn't really destroy us, did they? Lots of firepower, at we're now back over 47 again.

    Silver rocks!

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  131. We may have the biggest FUBM (so far) today ever.

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  132. Is it possible that turd's calls are moving the market? Pretty uncanny price action.

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  133. Top loser stock of Basic Materials sector (TRU, EXK, ABX, AG)

    http://www.mbpecapital.com/?p=7871

    FML...

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  134. Eric,

    FEELING Good Lewis!

    Quack quack

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  135. Around about the 46 level. Price contracts quickly coming down hard and expands quickly the ohter way. Gutsy move when it was cascading sown like that. Congrats.

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  136. Ebay: Bid @ $59.00 w/free ship. W/ 2 hrs left.

    For, 1 OZ. Scottsdale silver bar.

    http://cgi.ebay.com/1-Troy-Oz-Silver-Bar-Scottsdale-Silver-999-Pure-/200601308541?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2eb4c50d7d

    That's +~$12 spread

    Talk about disconnect.... how much higher can ebay price go compared to Spot???

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  137. @atlee - thx for the AGQ hand holding.....I bought more today at $334

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  138. @JoeKa - 335 AGQ ~ 46.3 - 46.4 silver

    @ Pailin - I am thinking the big dogs already got their advance copies of the margin hike document, and what we saw this morning was their re-positioning in anticipation of that. All that remains is the mystery meat of the FOMC news conference. On Margin Hike Days, the price drops like crazy in the morning, and the announcement itself comes out early afternoon (to take effect at close of trading/before the next day's open).

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  139. MisesFan
    outstanding!! No need to thank me, props to you!!

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  140. Morning all-

    Finance Dude -

    $1 face in 90% silver is .715 oz silver. $1.40 face junk silver is approx. 1 oz.

    To all of us "evil speculators" - the role of a speculator is to remove risk from producers who want to sell and consumers who want to buy. If you eliminate speculators the producers/consumers will absorb this risk. You can eliminate the middleman but not his function.

    If I am a producer and I like the current market price, I want to sell my forward production. If no consumers are buying at these levels I need a speculator to take the other side.

    If I am a consumer and want to buy future demand at the market level and no producers are selling, I need a speculator to take the other side.

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  141. Finance Dude, Walter Burien is dead wrong regarding 90%. First, $1 face contains around 0.715 troy ounces of silver. Second, the only Eisenhower dollars with any silver content are the San Francisco issues, which contain 0.3161 troy ounces. Third, why ship 90% to a refiner when there's an active market for 90% *as is*. Refining fees are much higher than 1%; I know this from experience.

    Please don't anything more from that guy. He's obviously a clueless fucking idiot who's never bothered to do some simple math and research. Being so far off on the basics, his opinion on anything else is worthless.

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  142. Eric#1 & Ginger

    If you don't like the way your miners look... quit lookin at em! ;)

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  143. JoeKa,

    AGQ 335 = 46.25 spot silver

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  144. FOAGQ I did buy on the way down around 46.40. Then waited the dip for $45.55 which didn't happen. I don't use market orders much because volume on HZU the canadian equivalent of AGQ has gaps. Even on days like today it can go 10-15 minutes without a trade.

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  145. @atlee

    "All you folks who bot AGQ in that 335 area, GREAT JOB!!"

    Glad to be back in, now onward to $50+ Silver!


    A visual representation of todays silver pit action after buying the dip:

    http://youtu.be/C6_yT_YiPvk

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  146. Thanks! So it seems like I must have bought correctly then. :)

    I knew them Bombay chicas would prove me nimble on the draw.

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  147. STRIKE WHILE THE IRONS HOT! China in ramming speed! End Game of ben/dollar. Headed this week directly at ben and king dollar. China in the drivers seat or monetary baton being passed to BRICS; Brazil, Russia, India, China, & South Africa. China checkmating ben 50%, if comex closes north of 47 1:30pm est. today. Brics 80% control monetary policy, with panic buying on PM's continuing into comex OEX silver close above 48; tomorrow! & 100% on FOMC ben speak Wed. 2:15pm est when you won't be able to get out short or in long at less than 50 spot plus silver. RECOMMENDED MY 80 YEAR OLD FATHER TO PUT HIS PROFIT BACK INTO PSLV TODAY. EASE THOSE PROFIT IN HE TOOK OFF THE TABLE WED. AND EASE INTO PSLV; MON-WED. FOMC THIS WEEK. Ferocious end game ben/dollar battle being played out.. Frankly dead head feds lose.

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  148. "atlee said...
    Around about the 46 level. Price contracts quickly coming down hard and expands quickly the ohter way. Gutsy move when it was cascading sown like that."

    Gutsy, not really. Volume's the key. They threw at least 50000 contracts at this. You know they've run out of ammo when 100-150k contracts have been traded in less than an hour, thus making it a pretty safe buy.

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  149. I really need to see that 45.71 print be the low for the week. Really don't want to have to change my name and avatar to Leisure Suit Larry.

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  150. @Markus
    lot of folks on this blog not as sophisticated as you. First time for them in this type action. How was your first half dozen times?

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  151. Climbing and accelerating...

    Just like last night.

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  152. Chill atlee.
    Lemme buy you a drink at this bar.

    http://i.ytimg.com/vi/gxIlm6nEN-0/0.jpg

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  153. @Eric/Irene,
    How would one swap Gold->Silver or vice versa? Through a local coin dealer or online like APMEX?

    I'd appreciate any insight you folks might have.

    Thanks.

    GM.

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  154. @ Mammoth

    Yes, so I just sat on my physical (which I never sell, but I can swap between G and S) and came up with cash to BTFD. Thanks for the concern. ;)

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  155. That last post was sitting in the comments box, should have gone up an hour ago. :/

    Just came back from watering the garden to find much of the red has disappeared from my screen (good) and lo and behold, EWC58 is back (great!). As you can, see, you were missed EWC.

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  156. @CD
    My experience is that on margin days we get a huge morning dip, following by a second weaker -but still sucky- one when the news goes public. Since I'm not sure how many weaks are still in right now (already washed out?), my expectation is the next leg could still be considerable but of lesser strength.

    And of course we're bumping up against noon soon too :)

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  157. @joe
    lol, not larry laffer yet!

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  158. looks like wave three is over and a spirited bounce off the 46 something low

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  159. As corporate earnings are coming out, they are discussing extremely low profit margins due to rising costs. Prices for everything are about to go way up. This summer is gonna seem like hell. Read more about this here: There is something you can do, to make things easier on yourself.

    http://crinerinvestments.blogspot.com/2011/04/implications-of-5-gallon-gasoline-and.html

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  160. I bought 2 may 47s at 35 this morning and I just sold them for 70. I am once again completely OUT of silver. I still have orders in to buy near 45.50. Be VERY CAREFUL here. This is not over.

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  161. @Turd - thx for the price target confirmation (my target was a tad lower and I would have missed the train)...my July $50 SLV call is looking lovely right now.....btfd at $1.97. FEED THE TURD!

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  162. not laffer you dope!
    you're the other guy with the blue shirt close to padded door.
    you know. the one with the fish tattoo??

    I'd rather be Mr White in denims next to sexy senorita though. :P

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  163. @ GoldMember

    I have an account at BullionVault.com Gold is held in the 3 vaults while silver in their London vault. You can buy and sell in 3 currencies and between any of their 3 vaults (the third one is in NYC). But you're locked into the buyers and sellers at BV. This can work to your advantage, for example, tonight, there was a bargain in silver as it was trading at BV below spot. Usually, sales/purchases are within tolerable limits as compared to the regular market and the commissions are pretty low.

    I didn't want our pms in our NYC apartment plus they're out of the country. It's not for everybody, but I'm okay with it. You can go to London and withdraw your silver (must pay VAT) and you can go to the other vaults to withdraw your gold, but I think there's a minimum amount.

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  164. This my fellow turdites, is why you MUST be patient and BTFD. One of these days, this market is NOT going to rebound, hence why you must learn to take small losses.

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  165. FOAGQ...

    Well, what an epic day so far in what is sure to be an epic week (or more)!

    I went to bed and woke up feeling like I had mad a mistake by only being 25% in over the weekend... then was happy that I hadn't!

    In the end, I added 50% more in the $333-$337 range which is where I would have gotten in on Thursday, so I missed nothing. Still holding 25% back for some other shoe to drop this week given all the shoes that are out there.

    It is going to be a CRAZY week!

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  166. The FUBM that could. I know you can, I know you can....

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  167. Love to see those $1 increments on Kitco! Not all that long ago these were 10 cent increments.

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  168. Navy Man, TY much for the nice greeting.

    Irene: it turns out that Aflac is perfect for me as primary sales mode is daytime at places of work, NOT around a kitchen table. Not my idea of what I want to do.

    Think of your existing health, hospitalization & disability coverages as a wedge of Swiss cheese: it's there and looks good, but in reality it's full of some pretty big holes. You only see 'em once you cut in...

    Aflac's offerings help to plug those holes. They've also created policies that cover specific conditions: from what I hear, their cancer coverage policy is the biggest seller right now. Unfortunate if not surprising, but it will help greatly at a time of need.

    Now here's the really cool part of this for all of you smart Turdinistas: even Aflac doesn't, and can't, provide true WEALTH insurance.

    By owning precious metals, all of us have already begun to seriously address an area that most people (even at this late stage) don't even see as a critical need. I tell ya, mass hypnosis and black magik surely must be involved here.

    I love the idea that I can help ordinary people fill holes in their coverages to avoid financial ruin from that end. Yet I only wish more Americans were aware and concerned about the possibility of taking a 90% haircut in the value of their paper backed "assets". Many of these dopes are so cocky too, boy are they gonna hit the canvas with a thud one day soon...

    And what does any of this prove? Not sure, but apparently we are even smarter than that duck.

    Ciao!
    Eddie Argento

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  169. "atlee said...
    @Markus
    lot of folks on this blog not as sophisticated as you. First time for them in this type action. How was your first half dozen times?"

    Well, I don't want to be an a-hole, but I think you really shouldn't trade, at least not with leverage, unless you know what you're doing. I mean come on, your livelyhood is at stake here.

    Having said that, you're right, I too was shaky in the beginning.

    By the way, how are you trading, if I might ask? From the content of your posts I hold you in rather high regard actually. Would love to hear how you're playing the game.

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  170. Rthaler

    Does Thompson think we are n phase 2 or phase 3, transitioning from one to the other?

    I'd like to think that we're not in phase 3 yet, and won't be for a while, but I don't know... I have a feeling things are moving much faster in the "Twitter Age".

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  171. Be careful about following EBay for consumer silver pricing. There are many ways to get discounts through EBay and people are willing to pay a premium because their discounts offset that and then some.

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  172. Daily silver candle just went green. Looks like Turd's whiteout may make an appearance. Enjoying the AGQ rollercoaster this morning. Didn't get in at 335, but almost back to break even. Bought more physical at 46. Turd says more action to come.

    I appreciate your prophesyin', afrum.

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  173. "Turd Ferguson said...
    I bought 2 may 47s at 35 this morning and I just sold them for 70. I am once again completely OUT of silver. I still have orders in to buy near 45.50. Be VERY CAREFUL here. This is not over."

    The current move to 47,5 and above looks rather more like a bull trap to me than anything else.

    If I'm wrong however, I don't mind.

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  174. Anyone here ever detect any acconting fraud at Interactive Brokers? Their totals feel suspect today for me in my trades.

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  175. GoldMember

    I do swaps with physical metals at my local coin shops. As Irene said, she uses Bullionvault.com. Others are working the same trade with some of the better known ETF's and closed end funds. More than one way to skin this cat.

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  176. @ Markus
    Thanks for the compliment. I only meant to encourage those who are stepping up. I watch the same volume indicators you do. In adddition I use a slow stochastic with bollinger bands for timing. I only trade in the direction of the trend. Never against. IN big with lt core. Separate trading accoounts that have done very well thanks to AGQ. Been very blessed and lucky.

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  177. Damn another gap up! 15 cents.

    47.75

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  178. Dr. Jerome...

    Yes, I've been chuckling all morning that so far today, it has been an "Epic Whiteout Day"... we'll see how it ends.

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  179. For those of you taking to the farm today looks like chicken butchering time. Cut their heads off and they run hither and fro. For those with miners stay long stay strong and don't forget my two faves ORKO holding steady over 3.00 and my other fave that continues to basically ignore the market SSL Sandstorm Gold.

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  180. @atlee

    Seriously, man, you deserve LOTS of love and thanx. I'm up over 3% right now and everything is red except my AGQ. I sold off all my CEF and put that in AGQ as well for now too. Hell, ride the bull.

    Brad

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  181. agq 323 is approximately 45.50 i believe (1.50 down in silver is 3.2% drop so need agq to drop about 6.4%) if u r waiting to back it up...assuming it happens today.

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  182. For those looking to buy physical silver at a discount----

    Chase is offering the AARP credit card with 5% cash back, no restrictions, no limits for 6 months.

    Even by paying the credit card premium at APMEX or Gainesville coins you still get about a 2-3% discount. I have been doing this for a couple of months without a problem.

    I can post the link to the website that discusses this deal if it is ok?

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  183. On this chart, I woul say we hav entered "Media Attention."

    Also, for any "idea" to gain acceptance, it must go through these 3 phases:
    1)ridicule
    2)debate
    3)acceptance

    MSM and public are now in #2... "debate", I think the "ridicule" is over.

    Just my take.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gmV5tHqYzEI/TTBLFNCUEvI/AAAAAAAAAI4/NjnlhTcw9qM/s1600/bubblesandmanias.gif

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  184. Well, that was, uh, fun...

    Watched my 1 contract futures account go down $13K in a few minutes. With visions of margin calls dancing in my head, I had to stay disciplined, and got out, with a gigantic loss, but alive to stay in the game. Watched the bottom come in, and bought back in. Now, loss is less than half as big, and I have my confidence back.

    Those trading rules exist for a reason, brothers, but DAMN--they take focus!

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  185. @Curmudgeonly

    Thanks. Stay on your toes. It is guaranteed to be a wild ride.

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  186. The rocket will blast off when the sheeple realize silver is money and a wealth preservation asset. Too bad we can't all go back to April of 2010 for a few hours and repurchase our shiny!

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  187. Ben,

    Gainsville requires the card holder to have the account open for at least 30 days prior to first purchase. Ampex has no such restriction.

    Go for the Citi Platinum Select 0% for 21 mos.

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  188. Turd thanks for your comments. Was wondering if we really could be done with monkeys already and I'm sure that the bullish feeling is strong for all.

    Congrats on your morning trade.

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  189. FYI, physical silver closed in India on Monday at $52.60/oz

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  190. Fortinbras

    I have been looking for the "accepted" labels for the 3 phases of a secular bull market, but they have so far eluded me. As I recall they are something like:

    1. disbelief/skepticism
    2. cautious buying, climbing the wall of worry
    3. irrational exuberance (bubble phase)

    Anybody have a better definition / link?

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  191. Old Navy, I don't think that he thinks Stage 3 has hit yet, this is when the Public and the Yuppie sheeple rush in. I think this is early stage 2 , we have Texas University buying huge quantity of Gold. Institutions are not in yet. Mutuals not in. Pensions not yet in. Only 2% public ownership. I think this changes very soon and then we will see real velocity. But the Chinese are cominng in no question. Their government needs Silver for solar and wind projects and electronics and their people have been encouraged to buy silver and gold as inflation hedge.

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