Tuesday, May 31, 2011

May Wrap

As the month of May draws to a close, just one more note on the premeditated massacre that took place between May 1st and May 17th.

Remember and never forget that the Comex is owned by the CME. A failure to deliver by the Comex would result in a failure and endless lawsuits against the CME.

By the end of April, it was clear to almost everyone actively paying attention that the Comex was failing. To this date, it is still failing. The total amount of available, deliverable silver stands at a record low of 31,000,000 ounces. This number is down from over 100,000,000 ounces just two years ago. In an effort to squelch demand and buy time, a deliberate and premeditated attack of Cartel selling and CME margin increases drove price down nearly 35% in 10 trading days. 

Do not believe the nonsense that volatility caused the margin increases. This is not a chicken vs egg argument. The margin increases created the volatility. Period. End of story. The CME "used" the volatility they created to justify a total and unprecedented 5 margin increases in 9 days. Breathtakingly bold manipulation and, when contemplated from a distance, only offers further proof of the desperate situation in which the CME/Comex/Cartel finds itself. The CME's decision today to lower margins on equity futures contracts, despite contrary volatility evidence, proves once and for all their active role in managing our "markets".

Therefore, we must resist the urge to be complacent and/or overconfident. Yes, The Truth is on our side and, as always, The Truth will win. However, the C/C/C has shown that they will not go down without a fight. Can margins be raised to 100%? Yes. Will they? Who knows? Maybe, and we must be prepared for that and any other eventuality.

In the end, as Santa says, your best option may just be to simply continue stacking your physical. Let traders such as myself guarantee an early grave for ourselves by stressing over the daily machinations. Believe me, you'll have just as much fun following the markets and watching to see if Ole Turd is right again even if you don't have any "skin in the game". Don't be afraid to simply buy physical on every 5% dip and avoid all the other nonsense. You'll be much happier, I can assure you.

To that end, The Wicked Witch seems obsessed with keeping silver below $39. We've seen this behavior before and it usually ends badly for her. I'm convinced she will lose this battle, too. The fundos are stacked too high in our favor. Silver will soon trade through $39 and then $39.50. Before the month of June ends, I'm supremely confident that it will trade to $43, maybe even $45. Could I be wrong? Of course. Maybe margins will be raised to 200%. Who knows? But, in the short term, gold is strong, crude is up, the euro is rebounding and the dollar is rolling over. This is a recipe for silver strength, not weakness, so keep the faith and let's see what tomorrow brings.  TF


  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  2. ...and Good Morning everyone, time for a Silver update.


    *I don't really believe that but being cryptic adds to my debonair aura.

  3. Re the debt ceiling expiration,, Didn't little Timmy G say the government could function til Aug 1st by raiding, (opps meant borrowing) government employee pensions?

    I think there will be a lot of back and forth posturing and pontificating between dems and pubs over what to cut and how much til then. The MSM will take their cue and start trumpeting headlines of failure to compromise, no consensus, not enough votes, veto threats, filibusters, on and on, building into a crescendo, until the last minute when our great and wonderful leaders will come to the rescue and raise the ceiling at the last minute.

    All the above will add to the volitility of PMs and hopefully create some buying opportunities and good upward movement. But once the new ceiling is achieved, watch out!

  4. Great info.

    PS. I bought some COW today.....MOO!

  5. Simple and inspiring. Thanks, Turd.

  6. Turd, me and the wife are buying a puppy at a local breeder on Saturday,and in your honor, we are calling it Turd (actually, it's my idea to call it that; the wife isn't too pleased with the name, but what the heck, eh?).


    Silver is closing unchanged on the day at current 38.40. The metal posted a big up move last week to 38.83 after breaking 35.75 resistance.

    We believe there is still a risk for Silver to drop quickly back to 33.00 while reactionary high 39.51 holds. The GSR has drifted lower to current 39.93. We see significant support at 39.22 from the May reactionary low. Resistance is not seen until 43.32

  8. Turd...

    You're right! (as usual, lol). I had never been on that site before. The damn thing had so many pop-ups and other re-direction bullshit that I thought I was going to have to disconnect and shutdown in case of a spyware download or virus. Pissed me off, but I read the article anyway.

    Sorry for sending the link in case it screws anyone up...didn't mean to or even think about that when I posted it. I won't re-post, but yeah, let people be warned that it did have a ton of pop-up crap on it.


  9. Someone REALLY hates gold above $1540...

  10. Such absurd manipulation. Makes me want to go back to my physical only days. But gonna continue to try to ride this out to pile up more physical. Never give up.

  11. Before the parabolic move the last few weeks of April, the OI on 7/11 was approx 60K and went to 80K before the shake out. It is still at 60K and most should have already met the margin requirements. So how does Blythe shake it down to a manageable few hundred?
    Put hands in pocket and let the price rise, CME calls for margin hikes and the herd panics. That's my guess. But the 60K will need be paid well to roll. Double Top? or is it too soon?

  12. Save_Am

    Maybe you should just go back and delete your post if it's that buggy. Save some fellow turdlings some grief.

  13. Oh yea, I should add that the IO hit 59K on 4/21 and the closing price that day was $46.62 I believe.
    So If I was holding through all that BS I'd say like my Italian Brothers from the neighborhood would say just before they hit you in the head with the baseball bat,"FU pay up"
    Rough place RI, mafia capitol of the US in my opinion, but the food....

  14. I hear you loud and clear ck, but that would be boring.

    Keep stacking bro.

  15. continued chop trading during consolidation phase for silver.....all expected.....very possible they pull the big guns out again in a few weeks for another beatdown but this game is getting late in the innings for any real damage to the trade. Other entities are buying physical that don't give a damn about the EE or any of their bullshit....and view beatdowns only as buying opportunities. The EE knows this and realize they are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place......simply....BTFDs

  16. http://theintelhub.com/2011/05/28/congressman-warns-%E2%80%9Cthose-who-can-should-move-their-families-out-of-the-city%E2%80%9D/

    Welp. Gonna want to live in these city areas.

  17. I am new to the paper game and wish I'd never have gotten involved in this rigged market in the first place. Wanted to make a few bucks since April to pay for more physical, and now I'm fighting tooth and nail to make back the few hundred bucks I've lost. With these numerous beatdowns popping up looks like I'll lose at least a few hundred bucks tomorrow. I'm begginning to wonder ift I may ever be able to recover my paper shit. I just hope I can have the guts to step away from this madness soon within the next few weeks, and save what I have left hopefully before the financial world blows up.

    Turd I pray and hope you're right on the positive side. Just need some more time to get out before everything falls apart.

  18. @JoeKa

    No, No, No... you are supposed to say something like "SOMETHING BIG WILL HAPPEN TODAY" and then you can take credit for every birdsong or hangnail that comes along.... ;-)

  19. youks,
    others will probably say I'm being insensitive or not very constructive, but it needs to be said: if you are hoping and praying that the market will move your way and get you out of a hole, you really ought to get out now and resolve to not trade until you are ready and able to tackle it with a business-like approach.

  20. @youks

    I'm not trying to be nasty, but if a couple hundred dollars is your loss limit, you may not want to be trading paper silver. Silver is a bucking bronco, and AGQ is a bucking bronco with jet packs. Until you develop a feel for how the beast moves, or enough callouses on your rear end to ride out the bucks and dips, you might want to trade some other vehicle, or start really small so you can build those callouses. Just my .02.

  21. @kiwi#1: you're right...you suggestion is loads more cryptic.

    However something big ALREADY happened today.

    It's in my pants.

  22. @youks
    This is a tough game, but one thing you have in this game that is not always present is a real shortage. Most I know either gave back some of their gains or held and fell back. I'm up some, not like I was 4/29, but ok. I'm waiting to see what will happen with 6/30 delivery notice. Find it hard to believe the big boys will roll with out cash in hand. So do what you think is best, but making a decision before the buying has even started yet seems like folding early. We should know a lot by 6/13. When they stair step buy it is tough to push down. Now if 2K stand for delivery and they can't meet it, you'll see margin hikes and low volume sell offs and every dirt trick in the book to get that number down. I would not fight that again.

  23. Turd said:

    "Maybe margins will be raised to 200%. Who knows?"

    Wow, that gives me an idea... forget about Comex paying us to not take delivery, maybe we could get Blythe to pay us for not trading silver at all? C'mon, Turd, I bet you have Blythe's private number, I'll take a 50% commission on the trades I don't make..... ;-)

  24. according to some tips from teh mcx, Silver set for worst monthly slide since 2008.

    Am i suppose to be crapping me myself or what.... paper trading sucks. Too much stress.

    seasonals say beware, the analysts i put lots of faith say still bullish, cycle patterns say mother of a drop in the works, euro/dollar troubles means commodities should be going up.
    how to make sense of all this?

    in the same boat as u youk. hang in there

  25. @JoeKa

    Front or back of your pants? No, wait, either way I don't want to know.... :-p

  26. Oh this is nothing. You should have tried shorting the Dow in April 2008, LOL.

  27. Sorry! I meant April 2009. My how time flies.

  28. I know when I said a few hundred (actually several hundred, right now getting close to 1k), even a few K in the red, which I have been in before, it is really insignificant to most of you all, especially in such a volatile market I realize. But to me as a new trader it is demoralizing sometimes to see myself lose a few K in a stretch of 1 - few days, then to claw back and get close within break-even again, just to have more beatdowns appearing out of nowhere... kind of like following what Silver's been experiencing lately. Like I said I realize I'm new, I've panicked and made mistakes along the way, and I am definitely getting some valuable (and expensive) learning exp, my purpose of getting into this in the first place was to make some money short term so that I can add to my phys stash.... unfortunately I didn't fully understand what I was getting myself into. Now all I hope for is to breakeven at least in June and to walk away from this for good. Not hoping for anything more. But even this seems like a gargantuan task considering the forces of Evil and the regular take downs that we are up against daily.

  29. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-scene-cme-lowers-es-sp-ym-margins

    does this mean more down tomorrow?

  30. @youks

    For your own education, it might be useful to describe (either online here or just to yourself) what actions you took, and what you might do differently next time.

    When you use the word "demoralizing" it suggests you got in a little too deep at first. As I mentioned before, you might start over again with a small position that makes it more "annoying" than "demoralizing" to be down a few bucks.

  31. Thanks for the inspring post, Turd. Your market calls are amazing.

    Can I ask you a quick question about futures? I understand that the futures market is open for trading 23 hours a day. Do options on futures trade 23 hours a day as well?

    I've tried to do a web search, but can't seem to find any definitive guidance on when the options on futures trade.

  32. @tomo

    One of the more interesting interpretations I've heard is that TPTB are preparing for the stock market to crash, and this will allow them to go big when they short it.

    I'm not sure it has any specific meaning for the PMs, it's getting damn impossible to look at the ES, the POSX, or anything else for a firm idea of where the PMs are going... mostly I listen to the Turd for trends and inflection points, and my inner voice for when to hop on and off.

  33. I'm still trying to win back that $50.00 I lost the first time I went to the track. :-)

  34. @youks,
    Trade gold. It is much slower moving and easier to trade. I've made a lot of money trading silver, but I don't keep my futures account very deep and the volatility of silver got to be too much for me. Until I get around to trading options, I'm sticking to trading gold and moving profits into physical silver.

  35. @Harald

    Quit Yer Bitchin.... at least you got to be out in the fresh air... me, I lose money all day sitting in a stuffy room in front of a computer watching the ticker....;-)

    (Jes' Kiddin')

  36. @Youks

    Man, I am not in much different situation than you, and already lost about 5-6K, and that's a lot to me too. Lost mostly trading the downtrend a few weeks ago. I am not sure I will be able to get back what I have lost either. However, I suggest that you use the indicators on netdania charts - bb, rsi, slow stochastics, macd. Also refer to eur/usd chart when trading. May be the best idea would be to wait for the large raids, deep waterfalls and buy when the rsi reaches 20. These sharp moves down are followed by sharp moves up. There isn't more obvious entry point and a possibility to get profits than these V shaped moves. Even if you have to wait a few days for one of them, this will give you a chance to recover your losses. I would use a leverage of 20-50 and a 500 dollar position.

    But I am a newbie so if anyone thinks differently, please correct me.

  37. Silverleaf: Yes, options trade on the Globex as well. However, during non-Comex hours the volume is very thin so the spreads are huge. This makes it very difficult to trade them most of the time.

    Goodnight all. See you in the am US.

  38. btw, that 38.10-15 is still holding in there like a champ.
    We'll see what tomorrow brings.

  39. H + W + P = E


  40. @BBL, @youks

    I trade with no leverage (although I am trading AGQ which has "internal leverage"), and I think I sleep a little better knowing that there can't be a margin call, and I can wait as long as I need to rise out of an underwater position.

  41. Night, Turd! We'll keep the light on for you... ;-)

  42. @Titus

    Speaking of trading gold, what do you think about a sell stop at 1529.50 overnight with a $1.50 trail?

    Last night there was a $6 drop overnight (which recovered).

    Kinda like the sound of that trade but I always worry about a small rise - just enough to stop me out - before the move down continues.

    I'm new at futures and I'm not very good with stop placement.


  43. Turd....I appreciate all you do and that you put yourself out there to succeed or fail....someday I will actually read your followers' comments when they show themselves to be serious and not compete to say "first"..as in they were the first to post on a thread....I am supposed to take someone seriously who cares whether their post is "first" or not after you post? When your followers leave such childish notions behind and seek victories on a more meaningful field than "first" then your mission will be complete. The markets are no place for fragile egos or those looking for self esteem by being "first"....however, to those who are like that, I thank you for all the "donations" over the years....keep it up....for those who wish to succeed, use Turd as a role model, put your positions on and then be personally responsible for them....only then will you know what it really means to be "first".

  44. Are they ready to RAID this thing down to 36.8- 37.4 level? Let's hope not bulls...

    while the USD goes down further, todays PM gains are erased. The manipulation game is gonna force me to be a trader more than an investor. They're relentless monsters.

  45. Hey Youk......GET the Foch out.....this is NO market for you to be in.....they will pick you clean.....that's their game .....buy physical silver and get out of this game....I cannot tell you how many times they have beat my axx in this market.....I have spent tens of thousands of hours studying this game and have traded for over 30 years......you have NO chance ....leave

  46. Nice post TF.

    Goodbye May. Here's hoping for a better June.

    To put things in perspective, the current silver price is around where it was at the start of April. Still not complaining...

  47. And in a case of how quickly sentiment on one thing changes from one way to another at a whim:

    0213 GMT [Dow Jones] Precious metals edge lower after opening mixed in Asia as concerns on Greece's sovereign debt crisis ease a little and profit taking, says Investec head of trading Darren Heathcote. "We are far from out of the woods yet, but the market talk that has come out is positive and the safe-haven buying that has gone on, has faded to some extent," Heathcote says. A Wall Street Journal report that Germany is considering dropping its push for an early rescheduling of Greek bonds in order to facilitate a new package of aid loans for Greece, pushed the EUR/USD higher and helped to soothe concerns. Generally, a higher EUR/USD bolsters gold prices as dollar-denominated commodities turn cheaper for investors holding other currencies, but the effect is being offset by profit-taking.

  48. Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight in Gold or Silver

    The legislation, called the Legal Tender Act of 2011, was inspired in part by Tea Party supporters, some of whom believe that the dollar should be backed by gold or silver and that Obama administration policies could cause a currency collapse. The law is the first of its kind in the United States. Several other states, including Minnesota, Idaho and Georgia, have considered similar laws...


  49. Bro atlee, I dedicate this video to you my friend. Enjoy!

    Gimme Shelter | Playin For Change

  50. Steadily but surely dropping out of the 38s into the 37s.

    As I mentioned yesterday, this means we will soon be on the previous ascending wedge zone with 36.90 as the bottom of that wedge.

  51. Breaking down a bit now. My buy level raised from yesterday with the rising 150 hour MA to 37.6. Hope to get filled today.

  52. @miked: i've got 37.60 as a buy target as well...and with levels below that mined also.

  53. Nice to know :)

    It's been a lesson in patience waiting for the price to come back down.

  54. 2.00PM ASIAN ZULU

    Enemy sited. Strafing our troops from the high-line in trees.

    D Homey keeping close watch.

    D Homey confirms following Tango-Victor-Charlie coordinates:

    Pivot: 38.38
    S1: 38.08
    S2: 37.89
    S3: 37.59

    D Homey expects the enemy pivot to shift lower as the monkeys climb down from trees and engage directly in 1.5 hours.

    Let the boys sleep for now.
    Later we kick some ass and take some names.

    D Homey out.

  55. @miked: patience is its own reward.

  56. Turd: You asked why $39 is so important (to the cartel). Max Keiser has shared that a source has told him that JPMorgue have derivatives that increase their losses in multiples past (from memory) $40. You may wish to contact Max to verify what he knows about JPM's derivative exposure on silver. To look at the CRIMEX alone is to miss the bigger picture.

  57. I hope to see 37.6 today aswell. That would give me a few bucks on the bear i bought :)
    It kinda looks like we are heading up pretty soon though. What do you guys think? 38.1 seems to be holding

  58. Then let it go up. I've got no problems that. ;)

  59. I'd be more impressed if it climbs back to mid 38s and holds it again for 4 hours.

  60. Morning JoeKa, I see you've been holding fort!

    I try to watch the prices overnight but keep falling asleep.

    Hope its not a smackdown day today.. could do with high 38's to lighten my load.

  61. Paper game is so fun. When I lose money I hold my physical. It feels good.

  62. @Fred,

    Something like that might work. I went long a week or so ago and I sometimes add on the dips. I try to let the market dip at least once and then buy on the second or third dip. Right now the bottom of the range might be $1530, but I like to let the market show me first, then I'll maybe buy on $1 or $2 above the bottom of the previous dip. I try, anyway.

    Right now I'm following Turd and I'll start to lighten between $1540 and $1550. Then when there's a strong drop I'll dump my entire position and start again. I try to always be in the market unless there is a definite drop, otherwise I just lighten my position if I perceive risk. Sometimes the magic works, sometimes it doesn't.

    I'm a bad trader, and I make my money by going long and staying long in an intermediate trend (like the one we've been in since Turd's Bottom #2). I almost always lose money getting in or out of my positions. I make my money by staying in my position during a short/intermediate bull market and trying to add on the dips.

    I agree with Atlee when he says you should always be ready to buy on a raid. Always have enough to buy on a deep dip. If you don't have enough, you're probably over extended. (Happens to me too often.) Calculate what would happen to your money on a deep dip, then make sure you have enough to add at that point. Then watch this site for help on when to pull the trigger (or not).

    I'm not making as much profit as I did last year, but I'm up pretty good for the year. I used to leave my account deep, but now I move profits off the table, buy physical, and start over much more often. The recent volatility scares me and I've lost too many hard won profits. I lose my profits about 50% of the time, and I'm trying to fix that. I've never lost my seed capital or had to add money to my account -- when my account gets smaller, I wager less and I'm always able to stay in the game. (I did not lose much on the May 1st massacre. I lost a little bit afterwards trying to catch the gold knife.)

    This market is much more difficult to learn in than last Fall. Last August, September, October you could almost throw a dart and double your money. (I did it many times! It was great.) Much easier to learn under those conditions (which probably will not return any time soon).

    Beginners should stick with gold and should never "invest" what they cannot lose in the futures market. I consider that this silver market is too tough for beginners -- learn with gold. It will give you a chance to develop your own judgement and trading style.

    Don't get me wrong -- I love silver. But just now I "trade" silver only very long term, use 100% margin, and only buy contracts from myself.

  63. Mornin NCOT.
    A swig of red bull should hit the spot.

    The only reason why we could get a dip is because of a raid. There is absolutely no other reason why spot shouldn't just tango sideways or go up.

  64. If it means anything, I'm showing a Bullish descending wedge on the H1. Price target: 38.50 - 39.10

  65. Funny thing is we can see the beatdown coming on charts.

  66. Also showing tremendous selling pressure on the POSX at 74.585

  67. @JoeKa.. now those are my kinda numbers..

    @ Silverman - can you see it coming?

  68. @youks

    It's possible that you can trade without loss on silver. Place your stop loss 20 dollars lower. It won't fall 20 dollars any time soon. Open one small but high leveraged position then back it by few thousand dollars. If possible place your stop loss at 1 dollar. I think we will never see 1 dollar silver :)

  69. @NCOT

    This is what I wrote yesterday.

    "All the time frames of slow stochastics overbought. Waterfall might be nearing."

    Usually slow stochastics 4 and 8 hours timeframes are great indicator for predicting waterfall. Trader Dan said EE can't hide their plan on charts.

  70. Thanks silverman...

    something to look forward too! (not)

  71. Silverman DOES have a point here.
    I'm not predicting a raid. Just being prepared for it in any case.

  72. Slow stochastic is really great indicator without lag. If range indicator points down quicker than expected it's EE coming.

  73. @youks

    I can see your problem. You're using too much money on one trade. You can use small rock to hit big rock. If you're noob use 5-10% of your entire account. As I've said before if you place your stop loss far far away you don't have to worry about daily swings. Just follow the trend and enjoy your money growing.

  74. You guys better watch Gold. It seems to have some sorta morning sickness or something. Poor blondie.

  75. Chinese banks instructed to warn silver investors of risks - media report

    Chinese banks have been told to adequately warn silver forward investors of trading risks after recent price swings, local media reported on Wednesday, citing a notice from the Shanghai bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

    The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) adjusted silver forward contract margins six times last month as prices fluctuated widely, tracking the roller coaster ride in global spot prices . Margins were raised to as high as 20 percent on May 6.
    The banking regulator asked banks in Shanghai to notify clients through text messages or calls whenever the SGE raises margins or adjusts the daily trading limit for its silver forward contract, to ensure investors are informed of their exposure and can cut positions if necessary, the Shanghai Daily said.

    Spot silver tumbled as much as 35 percent from its record high of $49.51 hit on April 28 to a monthly low of $32.33 in May, triggered by consecutive margin hikes by the CME Group on COMEX silver futures.

    Silver prices on the SGE dropped about 21 percent in May, although it was still up 25 percent so far this year. The contract was trading at 8,318 yuan a kilogram by 0216 GMT, equivalent to $39.93 an ounce.
    Spot silver was trading at $38.31, after finishing May down nearly 20 percent.

    Investment demand for gold and silver in China has exploded, with trading volumes for silver forward contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange leaping more than 700 percent last year.

  76. Silver scare for Indian speculators

    Speculation in silver is down. The reason, say market players, is heavy losses suffered by traders in south India and Ahmedabad dabbling in the white metal.

    The average daily trading volumes show a fall of 24 per cent in terms of open interest positions in silver futures in the domestic market on the Multi Commodity Exchange, where trading of precious metals is concentrated, in the month of May compared with April.

    A bull run in silver since January this year was followed by a sudden crash in prices. Silver prices are down 22 per cent on MCX in May in just a month’s time since they peaked on April 28. The average daily lots traded on MCX are down to their lowest in May to 16,794 lots from 22,189 lots in April. On average, while 19,800 lots of silver futures were traded on MCX in March, over 25,000 lots were traded in January and February this year. Each lot is 30 kg of silver.

    According to commodity brokers, the open interest will fall further as more and more traders might be afraid to trade aggressively in it because of the high volatility.

    “Traders were holding on to their positions in anticipation of another April-like spike. However, the last time short sellers of the metal were caught off guard and this time it’s some long players who run the risk of being on the wrong side,” said a Mumbai-based trader at one of the largest bullion trading houses.

    Brokers say another spike may be unlikely as the US dollar has started moving up from its recent low levels. “Often, the dollar and precious metals have had an inverse relation and both do not rally together. More, high inflation has also brought down the demand for precious metals, which may not see another big rally this year,” said another trader.

    In India, silver prices touched a high of Rs 74,000 a kg on April 28 on MCX. Since then it has been trading in the range of Rs 52,000 to Rs 57,000. As per yesterday’s price, silver recorded a 22 per cent price fall in just over a month’s time. But, the rise too was sharp from around Rs 37,000 in January to the peak, which saw short sellers of silver losing money.

    TANGO VICTOR CHARLIE...spotted 5 miles
    Northwest heading due South...

    Gold taking some shelling.
    Silver still holding ground.

    Requesting for backup and air support cover.

    Boys still in the sack except us ingluorious basterds.

    Shall continue to hold ground.

    D Homey out...

  78. JoeKa.. too much bad aura dude....

  79. I showered!!!
    I swear!!!!

    sniff sniff

  80. you showered? oh yeah, its a Wednesday

  81. It looks like an Inverse HNS on 30 mins chart with neckline at 38.30

    Yesterday was a busted HNS and hope today is not a busted pattern again.

  82. you mind your mother young man.

    its toosday.
    and i used soap even.
    shampoo's due on fryday.

  83. Turd,

    thank you for all your work. On today's article: I do not think it is a valid conclusion that shrinking COMEX inventory means a delivery problem in the future. Shrinking inventory is merely a consequence of backwardation if everyone maximizes their profit. You may wish to look at Backwardation and Declining COMEX Inventory for the details.



  84. This comment has been removed by the author.

  85. 38 breached again...

    This keeping me positive...







  87. Lets keep this as a minor water feature rather than a waterfall...

  88. yeah...it ain't so fengshui now issit?

  89. look sharp NCOT.
    it could be discount day on aisle 37 today.
    coupons ineligible.

    word ver: failitio? (i wonder if it mean fellati..?!)

  90. is it wise to still be buying under 38?

  91. @Tomo.. if it goes up, yes

    if it keeps dropping , no.

    Seriously, it depends on how comfortable you'll be sitting on a loss and for how long.

    I bought crude yesterday, spent a little in the green then half the day in the red, got out of it this morning in profit but lower than target.

    The key thing is, I knew I wasn't going to catch the bottom, but I did believe it was going up..

    What I did with silver, was place buy order at prices I'd be happy at buying, on the last waterfall last week, I picked up some which went red for a bit then were in profit and still are.

    I used to panic at a 80-100 drop, now I just get miserable cope with it... then it goes green and I'm a happy bunny again.

  92. Speaking of which, might be time for some oil again...

  93. Gold is bouncing off 1530 and should have some strong bidding at 1525. We might see some of that resistance cross over into silver. Wishful thinking on my part.

  94. Aloha gang,
    is it me or looks Gold like it's coiling before a big upwards movement?

  95. Is anyone going long in silver or gold here or is there more downside ; I am expecting gold at 1550.

  96. all this and it might still go down in a couple of hours... need to flick silver the V

  97. Morning Troops reporting for duty, General JoeKa!

    Looks like I might be able to buy back low after all, glad I kept some powder dry.... :-)

    I'm thinking 37.50 before it turns around.

  98. @Good Morning; I feel lucky today ;-)

    We bought a cachito (1/20th) of the Mexican Mother's day lottery ticket back on May 9 and stuck it in a drawer so we wouldn't be hauling it back an forth through customs.

    I checked it last night and it was the first big win (big win for me anyway) in my whole life.

    Banamex here doesn't sell Centenarios (they just buy them - telling?) so we're driving to Hermosillo today to pick up around a couple dozen of my precious coins.

    Honestly I don't need any more physical but now that they have ended unemployment in Arizona and I'm on welfare, I thought it wise not to have lots of cash about that I can't deposit in my checking account. Maybe with time I can do day trading to win my bread; but that's way above the table and I already have enough religious work beneath the table as it is.

    All things have a frequency and the frequency of The Spirit of Prosperity is EIGHT.

    I give gratitude to The Spirit of Prosperity!

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    Ogun Fumito

  99. anyone else hoping this small rally keeps going. I don't know what to expect what we will see by friday. any ideas?

  100. Ooopps....Got caught with my pants down.

    Reminds me of a great song.

    "Pants on the ground, pants on the ground, looking like a fool with your pants on the ground.
    Hat turned sideways, looking like a fool."


  101. @everyone,

    TF references ~30MM oz COMEX inventory in this post. I thought it was common (verified) knowledge that the May Day Massacre was used to usurp 30MM oz from the SLV, thus bringing current COMEX inventory to ~60MM oz.

    Am I wrong on what I wrote above, or is this a blind spot for TF?

    wd ver = stops how site appropriate

  102. uh oh, this cant be good...

    CNBS suggesting Silver could rise again...

    Thats a 'SELL' flag right there!


  103. Thanks for the update Turd

  104. you all can call me "numbers", i can't fix the 5437823657687 coming up as my name.

    anyway just wanted to say thanks to the turd and everyone else on this blog. I've been stackin
    for a while and after i found this place I started trading SLV on the "easy to read" spikes that happen almost every day. It's great to have all the opinions on here. The only thing that's been killing me is the three day trading rule that makes you wait for funds to process, any ideas on how to combat this?

  105. @Numbers -
    You can apply for a margin account. Allows you to use the money immediately. Officially, you'll be borrowing money until your buy/sell clears those 3 days.
    My account is something like 7-8% apr, which means on $10k for 1-2-3 days, is like a dollar of something. (not the real numbers, but you get the point.)

  106. wtf.. crude just got knocked off its perch..

  107. @Thanh

    Thanks for the help, I will look into that today.

  108. As an aside to all this trading talk. Physical holders - where can you recommend keeping your stash?

    I live in an apartment so I don't want to keep it at home, so mine is in a safe deposit box. However in the blackest of scenarios the day we have a crisis the banks's doors will close and my box will probably be rifled through so that will be the end of my nest egg.

    I've seen people bury gold in the garden but I don't have one. I spoke to Via Mat in Switzerland and they want 2000 CHF a year to watch it for me, and there is no guarantee it will be there when I need it either. I thought about Goldmoney but they keep their stuff in Via Mat so it's no better option and has the added counterparty risk of another person in between.

    Anyone come up with the ideal solution?

  109. I believe there are third party vaults that are reputable. Like Brinks in Delaware if my memory serves me.

  110. miked,

    You could seal it up in a zip lock bag and then drop that into a half full can of paint.

    Easy to move and unlikely to be found except with a metal detector.

  111. In a confiscation scenario you won't see your gold back though Murphy.

  112. Miked,

    You could temporarily bury it somewhere you know nobody will be with metal detectors, or if you can't find a place like that then bury a coffee can above it so that someone will assume the coffee can set the detector off and move on. I have mine buried somewhere on my grandfathers 200+ acres. Good luck in your search for a safe haven :)

  113. I heard of a guy who did that Lester and left the paint pots in plain view. I live in a country where people would probably steal my paint pots :)

  114. @ miked

    here's a few ideas,
    -trusted family member with a basement kept in a safe, then keep a little in the apt. for a quick fix in an emergency.
    -nearby storage unit in a safe, except keep the safe in a cardboard box modified with scrappy duct tape so it looks like crap. that's all i can come up with.

  115. Maybe you are right Chris. I could just buy some fsrmland for a few 1000$ and nobody would ever know.

  116. miked

    I'm not really a big believer in that "blackest of scenarios" that you describe. Still, I resisted for a long time before the wife put the hammer down and made me put the bulk of "my precious" in a safe deposit box.

    "When Momma's not happy, nobody is happy"

  117. Nothing is 100% secure but I feel the most secure with mine hidden away in the ground on private land with locked gate and fences.

  118. miked,

    pull out the stove in your kitchen. There is often space between the back of the kitchen cupboards and the wall. Unless you have an uberstack, there should be enough room there for your shiny.

  119. I agree with Eric#1. Confiscation is not going to happen. It was currency back in FDR's day. Most of the big holders now a days are friends of the banks and Wall Street top dogs

  120. Heh, Lazy I thought of that, and putting it at the base of the washing machine since nobody is crazy enough to steal one of those with all the concrete at the bottom. I also thought about punching a hole in the wall and plastering it in there.

    But all those solutions don't make me sleep well. you never know.

    @Eric#1. I'd say the blackest of scenarios is almost a certainty. Fiat currency is going to burn and the powers that be will do all they can to get their hands on gold.

  121. @Numbers,

    beware those "trusted" family members.

    BC Silver Theft

  122. Lester: It is my understanding that the report last week that showed a sudden adjustment of 37,00,000 ounces was a data entry error that was later corrected. The actual, stated number still stands at just below 32,000,000.

  123. Very nice bounce. Will it turn at 1540?

  124. Gold is a pimp daddy. I had to switch most my silver for gold last night. Shame I kept any silver.. but it shoudl rally soon enough.


  125. Everybody should watch this!!!!!! YOU WILL BE AMAZED. LET THE PEOPLE KNOW


  126. miked,

    You might be more comfortable with one of the online vaulting services such as BullionVault.

  127. What is the usual raid time ?

  128. miked
    If that's how you feel, then I'd say your best bet lies with some kind of concealment strategy.

    I wouldn't be comfortable with burying it, etc.

    I don't know, but you are right that no single strategy is entirely satisfactory.

  129. Thanks TF for clarification on my inaccurate perception of current COMEX silver stocks.

    One more reason to read your blog daily, you're looking out for MY blind spots!

  130. We expecting to pass through 1540 and head toward 1545-1550? Sort of thinking about taking profits off at 1539-1540 to maybe buy back at 1535-1537... Hmm.

    At some point I need to take some profits at our daily high, sick of not doing that and getting raided everytime.

  131. The storage question points out one of the main differences between gold and silver. A serious amount of money in gold still takes up a tiny space. You could stash it almost anywhere. Serious money in silver gets to be a nuisance is short order.

  132. @Eric #1

    Agreed. It's such a huge factor. Can literally take a couple hundred thousand of gold in a backpack.. good luck at that with silver.

  133. gold must pierce 1540 to keep going.
    "raid" time is post-london fix, 3 GMT, after 10 east coast. feels like raids been way overdone last night, so silver will either have to keep momentum going up or fall. i am not buying today.

  134. Eric #1
    I agree about the impracticality of the weight of silver. Its something to consider when one begins accumulating. I am waiting for the ratio to decrease and trade for gold.

  135. @Eric.

    I am even scared to keep gold in the country where I live. The banks are unsafe here. Most of my stash is in Zurich in a bank box but Marc Faber and a few others have been grumbling even Switzerland could confiscate.

    Perhaps the best place to keep it is one of the Arab states where they are more serious about their gold (joke :) )

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    I am even scared to keep gold in the country where I live. The banks are unsafe here.

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