Wednesday, March 23, 2011

I Think I Can, I Think I Can

In preparation for this day, I think we all should take two minutes to watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoVRV_xGEqc

Isn't YouTube great. I absolutely love it. Hands down the best thing we've created for the internet, so far. Well, YouTube and online football betting are pretty close...

Anyway, all eyes are on crude and silver this morning. Crude has blown through $104 and now looks to make a run at the highs near $107. As expected, it is providing support for the PMs, too, though both are still struggling to overcome the Forces of Evil at $36+ and $1430.

Do you recall this chart from last Saturday?
Looks like things are proceeding as planned by yours truly.
Now look at this 3-hour chart that I just printed:
$36.75 is our major hurdle. IF there is an entity that is intent on keeping silver below $36, you can bet your sweet batooty that the entity does NOT want to see silver trade through $36.75. There are, most assuredly, a proverbial shitload of buy stops above that level and any significant breach will trigger them. Silver will catapult through $37 and on toward $37.25 faster than Blythe can smoke a Camel Light.

So, watch the action closely today. IF the forces of evil are successful, they could drive silver back toward $36. If not, its off to the races once again. On a happy note, this morning's 8:00 am bloodletting has only been able to siphon off 18 cents, so far. That's a good sign. Let's see if we can get the ball rolling UP as we move toward 10:00 EST.

Turd watching and waiting. Out.

p.s. I now have 200+ followers on Twitter. If you'd like to receive a tweet every time I make a new post, just sign up here: http://twitter.com/.
Its listed as "TFMetals".

And I forgot to add this, too. An interesting story on EXK.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=123448&sn=Detail&pid=92730

204 comments:

  1. You make me happy, Turd. Can't watch the Norm MacDonald movie enough times..

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  2. Good work by you Mr. Ferguson.

    We need a picture of BM wearing Depends as she is buying more Depends. Or another youtube of her plan once 36 is history as she stands before her brand new vault talking about its importance.

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  3. Could we be close to a failure at the COMEX? In the event of a failure at the COMEX, what does that look like for a long futures position, call options position, the price of silver, and mining stocks.

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  4. Just noticed that the Gammon Gold dude was on the tube. I'm doing a rewind to watch it.

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  5. Jim Sinclair calls it MOPE, the management of perception economy. We witness the early comex beatdowns around the opening of the NYSE. My intuition tells me that this is a signaling to the connected as what the game plan is for the MOPE that day. The action in the mining shares suggests that large forces are trying to discourage and confuse the investors, trying to make physical look overpriced and sending out an army of top callers. This what Jim refers to as MOPE. Don't be fooled by this...GLTA!

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  6. He did state flatly that they do not and have never hedged any output.

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  7. Okay - this is funny. From the end of the last thread:

    .
    March 23, 2011 6:16 AM
    xtybacq said...
    If someone could post something incredibly profound, and lengthy, and difficult to reproduce, and heartfelt, it might well generate a new thread by TF. If you have struggled with whether or not to post it, that might also help. The qualities of the final, thread-ending post are many.
    March 23, 2011 6:19 AM
    Turd Ferguson said...
    The bloodletting has now successfully reached its target of 36.40.

    New thread, by the way.
    March 23, 2011 6:19 AM

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  8. > BREAKING NEWS: Witnesses say bus has exploded in Jerusalem, dozens of casualties reported

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  9. Of course, I didn't realize that our master actually required blood-letting by his followers. The 17th century similarities are truly building.

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  10. Just a random note for all you degenerate traders out there- I note that if you bought at the 9:30 EST open and held for 1 hour over the last 5 trading days in a row, you would have seen a rise in silver of .40, .24, .40, .54, and .55 cents. An average rise of .42 cents, or 2.2% per day if you trade AGQ. Just sayin'...

    A cynical soul would say this is what the EE gets for artificially pushing down silver pre-market. Good luck all!

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  11. Neutron beam observed 13 times at crippled Fukushima nuke plant

    http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/80539.html

    Observe an animation of nuclear fission.

    http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/visualizations/es0702/es0702page01.cfm?chapter_no=visualization

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  12. "xtybacq said...
    You know that Bernanke will have aced his SAT's, etc. But when it comes to economics - WTF? I cannot believe that everyone is not an Austrian."

    Oh but I am. From here to be exact: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Austria

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  13. xty

    I know what you mean as far as making some decisions early on, about the house, about the kids, about careers, and never looking back.

    The Missus and I bought our first and only house in 1989. Kind of small by current standards, and getting a little ratty around the edges now. But we're adamant that they will only take us out of here feet first.

    First child born in 1991. Starting in the summer of 1992 I started working my job seasonally, taking the summers off to be with the kids. Quite the trailblazer at the time for a Dad to do that! Maybe still is.

    It's been a great lifestyle choice and we don't regret any of it. NObody is starving, nobody is wanting for anything, the oldest one is in college now, we are saving for retirement as well or better than any friends or family that I know of, and most importantly it's been great for the kids.

    That's the trump card on the whole argument. Are the kids better off because of the decisions we made 20 odd years ago? Heck yeah.

    We could have had more income, etc. We probably would have just pissed it away on a huge house etc, and I don't know how our kids could have come out any better.

    One happy Dad. And Mom too.

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  14. Libertarian and Austrian here. Henry Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson Changed my LIFE.

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  15. USDX been strong all day yet silver has fought back. Interesting...

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  16. Commenting on what you guys were saying on the older thread..

    IMHO, I think Real Estate IS a good investment, however NOT at these prices, and certainly not in the housing market, as it takes a lot of effort to mantain a house per se.
    Cash Flow in Real Estate is perhaps the key to the whole thing, and with the economy as it is, it might be a lot more productive a commercial real estate (with cheap rent prices) than an industrial or residential estate.
    Heck, I'd go and charge a sweet 1 oz of gold per month :)

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  17. Eric,
    Your story is a great one. I really admire that you made such choices putting your kids/family first. Refreshing...to say the least.

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  18. So I just got a great tip.
    Buy Tripoli Holdings.
    Huge gold discovery.
    Anticipating deliveries to London and Ft. Knox locations shortly

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  19. We have now been above 36 without a dip below that line for more than 25 hours.

    My trading question of the day,Will we see 40 by close of the May Futures options? (April 26th)

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  20. re: Life Decisions. I live in New England and haven't used heat (except hot water showers) for the last three years including winter. I wouldn't do that if I had children, but I don't. It was a conscious decision to invest a few dollars in layering clothes (sweats over sweats over sweats :) and not fund the petrodollar conspiracy. Hard to type when the knuckles get stiff, but my gas/electric bills combined are under $70/month, even in Feb. as a result. Everybody I know calls me the cheapest@ss SOB they know, but I keep stackin' with the savings.

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  21. As of 9:40 ET, Wednesday, it is beginning to look as if $36.60 is the line that the EE will try to hold. But for how long? It is possible that the line of resistance will ratchet higher each day, at least for the rest of the month. Come April, though, WATCH OUT!

    -- Paul D. Bain
    paulbain@pobox.com

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  22. Such a mixed opening in miners this morning..

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  23. Vincent, great tip indeed. Best part there is zero mining and smelting costs.

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  24. @Vincent

    What is the Symbol ? (Tripoli Holdings)

    Just Kidding ;)

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  25. If we get over $37, we'll see $40 in hours/days. $37 is the key.

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  26. Great video TF. It plays well to Alice in Chains as well.

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  27. Anybody else got a forex buy order in at 36.80? If we hit it I'd love to grab the runup to $37+ in seconds!

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  28. So I did do my homework last night on Lexam VG Gold. Truth be told I'm kind of lukewarm on it, but I need to follow my own advice and be willing to lay a bet on Rob McEwen's nose anytime anywhere. So I bought a little slice.

    A lot of my positions are pretty darn small. More like an enhanced watch list if you know what I mean. I know I could just put stuff on a real watch list. But I find, for me, nothing makes me actually WATCH my watch list like having a little skin in the game.

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  29. Paul and atlee:

    I suggested this earlier this morning

    Sinclair also posits, and with much empirical evidence, that the struggle will intensify exponentially at the round numbers. i.e 1500, 40, etc.

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  30. I can't confirm it, but I thought the ticker symbol for Tripoli Holdings was FUMQ.

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  31. @Pailin

    I'm in NE too, born & raised in Maine. But seriously...no heat? Do you mean no petro-based heat and you have a woodstove? Please tell me you at least have a woodstove. I mean, why wouldn't you?

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  32. Fielding opinions...

    Is our new bargain basement buy $35.80?

    I'm 60% in on AGQ April calls, 40% cash

    Where is everyone else buying more? Atlee?

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  33. Mercenaries...Hmmmm.
    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/gaddafi-has-150-tons-of-gold-can-pay-mercenaries-for-years/766260/

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  34. Here we go! Look at Gold finally just blow past 1435 and silver trying to hold over 36.60

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  35. pick

    Well, I don't do the calls, etc. I've found through experience that as a basic personality trait, excess leverage is something I'm best served to stay away from.

    But in terms of physical, ETF's, and miners, I'm already as "all in" as I can be and still sleep at night. My feeling is that the battle is going to shift to the 39-40 range, and all those who are waiting for one more great buy spot in the 34's or 35's are going to left behind.

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  36. @Julia: i'm surprised you had no answer so far (none on SGS's blog either).
    Let's assume COMEX defaults on delivery, and finally admit their vaults are empty (and so are SLV's).
    IMHO:
    That means there is no silver where there should have been 41M oz (COMEX registered) + 352M oz (SLV) available. That's instant supply "destruction" and will be bullish for stocks and physical. Now, w.r.t. futures + options: COMEX looses any credibility as a price discovery mechanism, the market flees elsewhere, futures become bidless, price can very well drop to 0.

    7 days left...
    Chap

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  37. Harvey says he doesn't think COMEX can satisfy remaining March delivery contracts:

    "...
    There are 7 trading days left so in each of the 7 days, the comex must settle upon 625,000 oz each and every day. The silver comex is in chaos right now. I do not believe that they can do it.
    ..."

    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/03/zero-gold-and-zero-silver.html

    Now it seems JPM is going to raid SLV to cover obligations:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jpmorgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts

    Got physical?

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  38. Tripoli Holdings Update.
    Bottomline is Gold/OIL and Topline is DEMONCRAZY.
    Double whamy for investors!!!!???
    $%^$#%#%$#%$#

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  39. Where to start?

    Eric - boy does that every sound like my life, right down to the house getting ratty around the edges. But the toilet still flushes, and the furnace works. Our eldest child was also born in 1991 and is also away at University (I am Canadian). We have a son in university to (yikes - much fiat still needed) and one to go. But the kids are great, and it really is true about spending time not money - but don't get me wrong, I am no saint and sure do love my money!

    And listen to us moan about the price of silver - 36.62!!! as I type.

    RaulV - it would be nice to get a big piece of land at a low price. I think the opportunity might be coming soon. DarkPurpleHaze - are you out there? Do your parents want to sell their cottage? Where abouts is it?

    Markus - an Austrian Austrian? Cool.

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  40. Has anyone missed me? ;-)

    After 12 years in south central California not only straddling one of the most dangerous earthquake faults on the planet, but living five blocks from the ocean in a tsunami danger zone, I decided the Earth is friggin' angry — who can blame her — and maybe it's time to retreat inland, and time for a change anyway.

    My base camp is Tucson, and today I'm at the Javalina Coffee House in — wait for it ;-) — Silver City, New Mexico.

    I may relocate here; crisp mountain air, more than a tank of gas away from any huge concentration of potentially crazy people, low cost of living...

    I miss being able to keep up with things here at Turd's World; if anyone has anything helpful for me regarding southeast or northeast Arizona, or New Mexico, I'd very much appreciate the email to j48235@gmail.com.

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  41. Raul said (regarding real estate)
    "Heck, I'd go and charge a sweet 1 oz of gold per month :)"

    Intriguing thought! question for the group:
    Since Eagles and pre-64 coin is legal tender (in US), if a business allowed customers to pay in silver, would the entrepreneur only have to claim face value as income?

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  42. PM's rallying despite a pump-up in the DXY. Encouraging.

    Great comments Eric. Thanks for sharing.

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  43. PM's even higher vs. other non-dollar fiats. Love these days when PM's higher in face of higher dollar ( higher dollar vs. other fiats ).

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  44. slight pull back to 36.50 then bang zoom to the moon alice er I mean blythe. Next stop 37.25

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  45. @agophillic Yeah no heat at all. I constantly challenge myself to be leaner/meaner, this is just an example. I think that's the world we're all going to be living in soon enough. Not "THE END" but definitely leaner/meaner.

    Anyway, I've always lived well below my means, investing 50%+ of my gross salary every year. I'm mean, really, is eating out every night that awesome??

    No heat is just another means to that 50%+ end.

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  46. Bernorange,

    Not to belittle Harvey, but he kinda says that EVERY month.

    Honestly, it's REALLY hard for me to beleive they can't deliver 4 million ounces.

    And almost impossible for me to beleive there is NO silver in the SLV.

    Let's be real about this....

    They may fudge the numbers but NO silver... just about impossible.

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  47. John- Silver City? You want to do a little prospecting PARTNER? I got your back, man. I'll keep you up to date on Turds world and you get busy finding the glory hole. And by that I mean a mine, people.

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  48. Pailin@6:47...you need to buy a wood stove and thaw out.

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  49. JOhn
    Howdy and welcome back

    Limited experience only from a few vacations to AZ. We agree though that when it comes to retire and get away from the snow for a few months a year we like AZ tons better than FL.

    South--too hot
    Middle (Sedona)- too touristy
    North(Flagstaff)-luv it, luv it, luv it. Felt like home right away.

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  50. 1. I’m going to miss the artificial, Blythe imposed $36.00 collar – buy AGQ at $34.50 ~ $35.00 and sell at $36. As predicable as the tides and like shooting ducks in a barrel. I wonder what will be the new EE “hill to die on”?

    2. Regarding hard money vs. fiat, many metaphors come to mind (i.e.: G*d/Judeo-Christian values vs. Satan/secularism), but my favorite regards our Founding Fathers and the great poser, Barack Hussein Obama.

    3. Has anyone penned silver-focused fiction/short stories that they would like to share? I would love to read it.

    Disclosure: 100 to 1 physical Ag/Au.

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  51. and I LOVE youtube. That video is priceless. When he pulls the flowers from his sleeve as they sing about only needing to believe. And when they are scared at the end. And the wonderful diversity of the characters on the train.

    Chap72 Good answer for Julia. I started typing something earlier and lost confidence. Agree with your scenario totally. But shouldn't some other platform appear that does function as a price discovery mechanism? I would expect a rival to appear as a sign of imminent collapse. If I held any sort of contract with (through?) the Comex, I would be very nervous and want out.

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  52. Eric, way to keep it real & both you & your wife chasing your own vs. pursuing indoctrinated goals.

    Cris, agree, they'll deliver somehow / from somewhere.

    Currently, nice little war b/w $36.55 - $36.66.

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  53. Fierce battle at 36.60
    Good entertainment...and I think the good guys will eventually win.

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  54. Holy crap! JP Morgan now holds a license to have a vault for the comex/nymex. Are you serious?
    What kind of corrupt bull shit is this! Expect plenty more manipulation in the near future. The end of this game has just been extended.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jpmorgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts

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  55. JP - you must have my curse. I checked the USDX when I read your post and it was straight down on the one minute chart. But I agree - that is a really positive sign.

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  56. i think so too Dr. Jerome, seems like buyers are a bit more competitive today to want to push through.

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  57. Oh really Cris,

    There is no gold in Ft. Knox either !!

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  58. Silver feels like a pressure cooker.
    There are quite some commonalities between Fukushima and the silver price right now...
    Evac the shorts!!!!

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  59. What do you guys think about comex options expiring next monday. Previously, the lows for the cycles have been recorded on this date. You can see what I am talking about here:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_22.html

    If we get frothy and then start to get blythed on Friday, I would assume this pattern still holds. It will be interesting to see what breaks next, 36.40 or 36.75, as we are in a tight channel that has larger implications on the next defined movement.

    On the other hand, if we run-up and are not at lows but instead highs on Monday, I can safely assume that the recognition of physical shortage is on and Blythe is powerless. This will be the start of something very big and paradigm changing...

    Once the ever so versatile metal which happens to be a safehaven against the dying criminal ponzi scheme known as the Federal Reserve Note is recognized to be scarce, the real fireworks will begin.

    Here is a good article from 5 years ago from Ted Butler that I found on kitco forums last night. Definitely worth a read :)

    http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1165255836.php

    -
    Scott

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  60. Fun to watch the little-guy short covers over and over again around .60. Can you imagine speculating (w/leverage!) on spot dropping enough to be worth the risk? Theoretically, sure, but not with actual super-valuable USD note fully-backed by UncaBen.

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  61. Thanks, Pining for the Fjords:

    Here's a snippet from Wikipedia:

    ...Silver City was founded as a mining town, and the nearby mining operations of Phelps Dodge are still the basis for the local economy. In 2006, the Chino and Tyrone mines produced 125,400 long tons (127,400 t) of copper. Mine employment was 1,250, with wages and salaries totaling $73 million. However, a Phelps-Dodge spokesman recently remarked that "based on current economic projections, our properties in New Mexico will not be operating in 25 years".[4] Phelps-Dodge was acquired by international mining firm Freeport-McMoRan in March 2007, and operations at the Chino and Tyrone operations are continuing under the Freeport name...

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  62. 24/7 2011 shorts bend over and take it up the tail pipe! Operation preparation "H!" What a 24/7 nutcracker performance daily!! When the shorts are vaporized to ashes,SOON; we physical silver longs can have lifetime jobs goin through the ashes and picking up the physical silver vice grips!! hehehehehehehehehehe!

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  63. Boom goes the dynamite! 36.80... wooot!

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  64. BAM!!!! BUSTED!! TO THE MOON ALICE!!

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  65. Thar she blows.

    Did we just hit a new high in silver? Again?

    Said it before, will say it again -- Turd's da man. Any guesses on the upside target? $37? $40?

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  66. Well I'll be a monkey's uncle!

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  67. SLW having a great say, also announced they are getting an additional 7 Million ounces courtesy of Goldcorp.

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  68. word verification, I kid you not:

    BOOMEN

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  69. little bit of resistance here at 36.75. should not be a problem.

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  70. Cris - It would appear from the COMEX delivery schedule to date on March contracts that Harvey may be right this time.

    I believe that the fast track JPM vault move is likely because there is silver in SLV and they are going to raid it to satisfy the COMEX delivery obligations. Folks holding SLV are going to be left holding the (empty) bag. $.02

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  71. Ladies and gentlemen, we got a new 30 year high in silver.

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  72. xty: "Markus - an Austrian Austrian? Cool."


    Oh yes :)

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  73. Silver cooking - about same time as yesterday AM upward advance.

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  74. Who said it last thread? +.40 in the first hour the past 5 days...
    Hopefully up from here

    New high!

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  75. Markus - feels like we should be popping the champagne!

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  76. Eric#1 wrote:

    ...North(Flagstaff)-luv it, luv it, luv it. Felt like home right away...

    Eric:

    Thanks much for this; I immediately liked Flagstaff as well, when I travelled in a van about 25 years ago for five months. Having lived in Ann Arbor (attended U of M), Santa Cruz, Santa Barbara, Eugene, and Seattle, I've always liked college towns.

    A friend suggested I check out Winslow and Holbrook, just east of Flagstaff; your comment has encouraged me to check out that area before making a decision on Silver City.

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  77. Let us not forget about gold being 3$ off all time highs....

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  78. That was me Dr. J- and I traded it. Life is good!

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  79. Where are the silver permabear trolls today?

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  80. @Scottj88

    RVMID is looking very strong today.

    Well played, sir.

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  81. stay humble. the battle rages on.

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  82. Let's not get carried away here...I'm reserving the champagne for when we break the all-time high of $49.whateveritwas. I'll be sipping at $50.

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  83. Can I just claim a small amount of bragging rights because I kept saying $36 by the end of the week (I got the wrong week but only by one) when things were ugly and even Turd uttered a discouraging word? Trolls kept saying 30 and 31, and even 28 and 20. I am wrong lots, so just wanted to toot my horn for once.

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  84. I've got too much dry powder! my day-trading buys at 36.40 sold before I could change the stops at 36.75 in that fast push. Only have one play left and I'm going to hold it most of the day to see what shakes out. It's the right problem to have but wow, just wow that has never happened before.

    In other news, holding physical does carry risk. You can build your own vault, have enough land to own a country, have a complete army protecting it and still if someone wants it bad enough....

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  85. bernorange, i agree that is what'll happen to slv paper holders and was the game plan imo when its drafters created slv/gld.

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  86. I'm not cracking champagne until Bernanke steps down, not due to replacement/retirement, but because his company went out of business.

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  87. 36.84 and counting.... common 37!!

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  88. @John 97205

    I love NM.....Taos, and the area east towards Angel Fire are my targets for relocation.

    Mmmmmm.....green chili (the gravy)!!!!

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  89. @agophillic, I believe there was an intraday high of 50.45 before things pulled back. See you on the other side!

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  90. Silver just broke through resistance 36.75 resistance.

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  91. John - nice to see you back. College towns are great. The students keep the town young, and the campuses are usually beautiful. Not to mention the ludicrous salaries Professors get. And if you have a good football team it is an added bonus. (Or hockey, if you are really lucky!)

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  92. Darn right, xty....BOOMEN!

    Reloading my account yesterday with GPL, AGQ and UGL is starting to look like a brilliant move.

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  93. Well done, xtybacq. Besides, it hit 36+ before COMEX opened on Monday, so you were technically correct.

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  94. @HappyInTheWoods The key to holding physical is spreading it around a bit (don't put all your silver eggs in one basket!) and nobody knowing you're holding.

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  95. I think SLV has enough silver to be able to deliver to allocated holders. It's been a while since I read their prospectus but I thought it was fifty thousand share "baskets" that were allocated. Might have been One hundred thousand shares. These are the type of shares owned by Saros and John Paulson. If the big holders pulled out their actual silver, the price of SLV of course would probably go to .02 very quickly.

    As for investing in real estate; I grew up on a farm in the midwest. (South Dakota.) Relatives tell me that locally farm land is going for $3000.00 an acre...that's two million a square mile. Sounds about right, in the 70's it was $1000.00 an acre. this isn't the best farm land either, Iowa and southern Minnesota are better. Since none of the locals have two nickels to rub together and lousy credit besides the buyers must be from out of state. Maybe that's what the rich are doing with their money these days.

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  96. Well, isn't this nice.
    I step away for a half hour and I come back to 1440 and 36.84.

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  97. @ MisesFan

    I think this is the start of something bigger for Revett. We will see :)

    If you don't already, stockhouse sometimes has good information (but you have to use it for what it is obviously).

    Mr Genesis and Mouserman post wonderful things :)
    http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=rvm&t=list
    -
    Scott

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  98. @Turd

    Yeah, who woulda thought 36.40 was a great buy (at least for the morning)?

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  99. Happy - I know. I am relying on the Canadian Mint right now, to a large extent. I cannot see the rule of law breaking down totally where I live. (In Ottawa, Canada's capital city.) But I am not going to feel comfortable hoarding all my wealth (such as it is) in my basement. It already serves as TV room, band practice space, camping gear storage, food storage, laundry room, everything storage that isn't allowed in the garage, old computer and stereo stuff storage, albums (yes, albums), dog food and .... vault?

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  100. Turd, please step away for another half hour. Perhaps when you come back Au will be $1447 and Ag will be $37.20

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  101. Home, home on the range
    Where the bear and the bullfalo roam
    Where seldom is heard
    A Discouraging Turd
    And the skies are all silver and gold

    Sorry - that is pretty embarrassing.

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  102. Who are the buyers?
    Are they moving money or simply buying?
    Coordinated attacks to the upside?

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  103. MisesFan:

    Thanks, I'll check out Angel Fire NM online, simply because I like the name. ;-). Much better name than Diablo (The Devil), the nuke plant less than 100 miles north of my previous location on the California coast, that was built directly on top of an earthquake fault; the fault was discovered during construction, but since they had already spent a few hundred million dollars or so by that time, our esteemed federal government allowed them to continue.

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  104. atlee, et al

    EXK is getting some love, where do you see it going to short term?

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  105. Thanks Pining.

    It look like silver wants to go higher instead of the usual pullback...

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  106. So what is the EE's plan?

    Ease up on the Comex short position, raid SLV for silver?

    ReplyDelete
  107. Turd Ferguson @ 7:51:

    Yes, and at least at the moment, my gold and silver bullion alone (haven't had a chance yet to even look at my miners) appears to be funding my trip to Silver City. ;-)

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  108. Turd, which should be next target....$45? ($36 plus 25%)...then some 10 to 20% correction?...Silver will push to $50

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  109. short term exk: today's resistance is 9.96 then 10.20 then 10.46. That is as far as I can see. Long term, don't worry about it. Buy the dips.

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  110. atlee: thanks, appreciate your input

    it's got good shit to worth ratio ;-)

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  111. Benorange,

    So walk me through this -- cuz financially I am 5 years old.

    If SLV is "raided", why does its price go down? I always thought that if supply goes down, and demand goes up, price rises.

    But perhaps I am confused.

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  112. @ Curly --

    Not exactly fiction *focused* on Ag, but I do write some SF, and it has been a lot of fun casually assuming that Ag and Au are money, all economists are Austrian, and the people who know something about the past of 100 years ago (i.e. now) have no first clue about why people would have used anything *other* than Au and Ag.

    Look for "Mick Richfield" on Amazon...

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  113. In all honesty I just checked the account that holds my mining stocks for the first time in almost two weeks. I knew I was going to buy and hold and so I just didn't look. Just coming up - it is amazing how they lag, but it looks like things are beginning to hum.

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  114. @Dr. Jerome

    Someone tried using the pm coins at face value to pay wages, as I recall. IRS went after him like a rabid skunk, their normal behavior, he was convicted of something and is in prison now as I recall. Remember, if you get to interpret the rules it doesn't matter what they say, with the Constitution as Exhibit A.

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  115. atlee- How is that AGQ you picked up last week at 174 tasting right now? +40$ per share, one week later, I would think it is tasting pretty damn good, brother!

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  116. my gut feeling says $37 not today... I hope my gut is "blind"

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  117. Cris - by raid he means that they literally take all the physical silver that slv is meant to have and use it to satisfy contracts held through the Comex. Then the shares of slv would be worthless because there would be no physical silver to give slv any value as an asset. It is not like silver being in short supply so the price goes up. It is about the value of a share in slv.

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  118. Turd - just to make you aware of this :
    Endgame in Ireland ...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB2YR:IND

    and the Euro still firm

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  119. Turd, thanks for the Twitter info. I am now part of the following flock. No Blythe on Twitter!? That would be interesting...

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  120. SLV will not go down if it is raided. No one will know how much silver it has especially with the JPM vault deal with the CRIMEX. SLV is supposed to buy more silver as shares are purchased and sell when shares are sold. Because JPM has the massive short position, the speculation is that they using the silver backing SLV to settle. No one knows for sure but the coincidences keep lining up just right.

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  121. Dr. Jerome said...

    Intriguing thought! question for the group:
    Since Eagles and pre-64 coin is legal tender (in US), if a business allowed customers to pay in silver, would the entrepreneur only have to claim face value as income?


    That would be a nice one!

    I was thinking into (in that case) just adding a clause that the price would be equal to the price of an ounce of gold, payable in US Dollars (just for the heck of it), plus all taxes derived from it.

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  122. My husband actually phoned the Canadian government tax department because we are meant to estimate the value of bartered service so we can remit taxes based on that value. He tried to get them to tell him in advance what would be reasonable but they insisted that we guess, pay the tax, and then if they decide we are wrong, they can come along and fine us for not paying our taxes.

    Speaking of science fiction. Or more Kafka-esque.

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  123. Geezus! Left the house early this a.m. to go take care of some stuff, forgot my phone so I had no way of checking on anything. Got back, look at the Dow, said some 4 letter words. Looked at dollar index, said some more 4 letter words. Hesitated and then finally forced myself to look at silver and said some more 4 letter words but in the good way! Hunt down $37, Lady Silver. Definitely wouldn't have bet on that after seeing the Dow and dollar first.

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  124. xty, that takes some discipline not to check your account. I check mine compulsively. Oh, and a sarcastic "Thanks" for getting "Home on the Range" stuck in my head...

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  125. @ Pining.
    Very sweet indeed. How about you? I have had several more purchases since then including this morning raising My average to 194 and change. I think we are good but if they come after us I will lighten up in a hurry. I see next resistance. at $228.75. How about u? Todays was 214.35 then 215.35.

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  126. Isn't the purpose of bartering so you don't have to tell the government?

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  127. J. E. said...
    SLV will not go down if it is raided. No one will know how much silver it has especially with the JPM vault deal with the CRIMEX. SLV is supposed to buy more silver as shares are purchased and sell when shares are sold. Because JPM has the massive short position, the speculation is that they using the silver backing SLV to settle. No one knows for sure but the coincidences keep lining up just right.


    Exactly my thoughts... they are acting (and would be acting) as old dirty bankers... they "say" they have your money, but in fact your money was lent to someone else (x10), the vault is empty, but you cannot take a look, so you must "trust" their word

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  128. @Raul V

    See my earlier reply to Dr. Jerome. You could tell all your cell mates you were INNOCENT!

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  129. Interview with Ed Steer.

    http://www.davejanda.com/audio/EdSteer032011.mp3

    Good video to share with the friends and family that still are in denial or out of touch.

    36.86 not bad!

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  130. atlee- I am very conflicted about this. My brain says yes, beware of the snap-back here. My gut says we have been futzing around 35-36.50 levels for over two weeks now, shaking out weak longs and building a base. I have 'felt' for some time that when the lid finally came off, we would rocket north, perhaps spectacularly.

    So I will watch and wait, and be very nimble.

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  131. @ Liverdiefree

    Yup, that's why you MUST use fiat for business, maybe that's why the guy at taco bell (or was it mcdonalds?) did not want to accept the silver coin as payment for the meals.

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  132. Mister - but unfortunately that discipline was totally negated by my compulsive checking of the price of silver - even in the middle of the night. Sorry about the song - it was the discouraging turd part that made me have to share the pain of my creation

    Hi Justin - speaking of compulsive people. Imagine not having your phone - I go crazy when I don't have it. Almost unhealthy.

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  133. xtybacq,

    as J.E. points out, I think the flaw in the logic is that it is even possible to "take" all of the physical silver and not have anything hapen to the shares.

    If physical silver is removed, shares are removed; stands to reason that remaining shares retain value. In fact, one could posit that they perhaps even gain value, as the remaining silver is appreciated as being scarce.


    I have no doubt that the big holders could remove a fairly significant amount of silver.

    But I find it difficult to beleive that the SLV is COMPETELY fraudulent, and that their claims of over 300 TONS of silver is completely false.

    As I have said before, I am no expert. But Ted Butler is. And he has said in writing a billion times that SLV is a safe vehicle for investment. In fact, he has written it is the next best thing to physical in your hand.

    Good enough for me.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Cris - I fear that JPM will be removing physical silver from SLV vaults to satisfy COMEX obligations while accounting games cover the tracks (with debt obligations). I don't expect transparency.

    ReplyDelete
  135. @Raul V- dangerous game. The gentleman mentioned earlier in the thread was NOT convicted for counting bullion at face value to pay employees (though the years-long court fight could not have been pleasant or cheap).
    The .gov nailed him in the end on the conspiracy to conceal the acquisition of wealth that resulted (partly) from this excercise.
    Long story short, it is as xty said - the gov't will do with you as it pleases. Alas, the laws protect those with the power.

    Captcha: prepadie (prep or die? a prep a day?)

    ReplyDelete
  136. Half oz gold sale on apmex.
    My dealer's son said yesterday he was hoping for a pullback in silver as he's trading on the gsr and has a bet going w/ the other shop employees. I explained the silver naked short problem, and said if you're right and it goes down tomorrow, I'll be back. Looks like i'm not going back there today!

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  137. Harold - I know. He (and this is a very sweet if deluded side to his character) actually believes he can use logic to convince people they are wrong about something. He didn't want to declare anything, he just wanted to prove the system was inane. He hopes to convince the operatives of the borg that they are part of the problem and can change. Do you remember the scene in the book, The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy when Ford Prefect tries to get the Vogon guard to not throw them off the ship? That kind of thing.

    ReplyDelete
  138. I have to step out for an hour. Afraid to miss seeing $37! So far so good today.

    ReplyDelete
  139. JOhn

    Be aware that Flagstaff does get a bit of winter, a little snow, etc. Maybe that's what made it feel like home to me. Also the college town thing. In a college town not only will you get maybe a football or hockey game now and then, but also maybe a decent concert, play, or rockin' bar band too.

    As far as how much winter they get, I'm sure some local Turdlings could chime in, but as compared to here I'm thinking it can't be too bad.

    Here's a local ditty sung by a local band. To the tune of La Cucaracha:

    Up in Wiscon-sin!
    Up in Wiscon-sin!
    The weather isn't very nice.
    Up in Wiscon-sin!
    Up in Wiscon-sin!
    We gotta fish right through the ice.

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  140. This is precisely why they need the CRIMEX vault. Now all they need to do is come out and say they are going to be their own custodian vault for SLV. Then confuse everyone with an unallocated pile of silver plated nickel.

    ReplyDelete
  141. If Blythe does not put her act together soon, we'll see 37 as soon as today!

    (C'mon Blythe, keep you cell phone off and go to sleep, yesterday was a very hard day--same goes to her monkeys)

    ReplyDelete
  142. On that news yesterday about JPM getting their own vault: Initial impression is "oh boy the criminal ponzi goes on.." But I'm kicking an alternate scenario around in my head that suggests that maybe 36 really was do or die for them, but now that they can manipulate their own vault maybe thay can afford to retreat back to 39.99.

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  143. Difficult to do, but I MUST pry myself away from the fun to go do errands. Y'all hold the fort up, and I'll be back to check in later.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Cris - I am not getting in on a slv bash. I was just trying to answer your question because you seem confused about share value. If slv reduces the number of shares when it gets rid of silver, all should be well and good. It is a question of whether it is all there or not. You write:

    "If physical silver is removed, shares are removed; stands to reason that remaining shares retain value. In fact, one could posit that they perhaps even gain value, as the remaining silver is appreciated as being scarce."

    Remember - there is no positing about the value of shares. It is all there in the market.

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  145. At what point do the May Contract OI numbers become worth watching?

    ReplyDelete
  146. That Endeavour Silver story has me thinking that they're taking a look possibly at Impact Silver. A total complete guess, but that's my guess. What's yours?

    Yukon

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  147. Eric#1: yep, or as far as they wanna go even

    Customer: I want my silver

    JPM: We have it, it's in the vaultr.

    Customer: Can I see it?

    JPM: Sorry, against regulations. Company policy.

    Customer: But, I want my silver.

    JPM: We understand.

    solipsism followed by circular logic, followed by deception

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  148. OMG I have work to do, but I can't drag my eyes away from that Ag chart. C'mon 37!

    ReplyDelete
  149. Eric - that is an evil thought.

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  150. "If physical silver is removed, shares are removed; stands to reason that remaining shares retain value." - Cris

    This is not correct. The number of shares does not have a direct correspondence to the amount of physical silver in the vault(s).

    This explanation is for GLD, but SLV works the same AFAIK:

    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html

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  151. yuke: is Impact outside Mexico? The CEO hinted the acquisition would be somewhere other than Mexico.

    ReplyDelete
  152. A little payola to the auditors and everything's fine. You deliver the real silver to the manufacturers that actually use it and replace the customers' who are storing with you with the fake stuff.

    Will keep the ponzi going till every last customer demands the physical. Since this rarely happens they have been able to get away with the garbage.

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  153. @Yukon

    I hope so.. Impact is already flying the last few days!

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  154. Yukon

    Which Endeavour story are you referring to? I'm at work and kind of out of the loop and missing some posts.

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  155. Impact is in Mexico: Zacatecas Silver District

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  156. J.E.:

    auditors? AUDITORS?

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

    there ain't no freaking auditors!

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  157. Holy crap...

    We

    just

    need

    5

    more

    cents!

    Let's get to $38 already!

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  158. Jake - exactly. Have you filled out form 437K? After processing that, we will begin the transfer. When can I expect the shipment? I can't tell you until we process your form. Okay, here is my form. When can I expect you to process it? Have you filled out form 438K, "Request for Progress Report on Form 437K"?

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  159. Regarding Turd's chart from Monday about the price rising through the end of delivery month, is anyone considering swapping for gold Friday or Monday? After deliveries are made for March, a lot of buying pressure will come off for awhile.

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  160. I mean $37...I've had way to much coffee and Ag has me crazy. Though $38 today would be nice...

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  161. @ Dr Jerome 7:17am,

    The case of IRS v Robert Kahre is the most well known. Kahre lost because he tried to play both sides of the coin, if you'll pardon the pun. He paid wages in ASEs and then bought them back at spot.

    But the courts did rule there was validity to the argument that if both parties agreed that the payment in full for services rendered was the face value of the legal tender coins (regardless of their melt value) then the IRS could only tax at the face value amount.

    Here's a link to get you started
    https://www.kitcomm.com/archive/index.php?t-71587.html

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  162. J. E. : don't quit your day job :-)

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  163. agophillic - I am fine with 38. Actually, I am fine with 39, has a nice ring to it!

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  164. Justin,

    From an old thread.

    Feel free to use my statement on your blog. It was, as you stated, a public comment.

    ReplyDelete
  165. And the USDX is not a total disaster today.

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  166. almost touched $37 then beat down to $36.90.

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  167. Not only is our silver worth more today, the dollars it is priced in are worth more. Without the Euro news we would be past 40 today.

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  168. the closer we get to
    $40 the more fierce the defense will be

    this will be overcome by resolute longs

    somebody check the volume, Jesse suggests the end of week wacktion (new word to describe what happens in the silver pit) will be weak on volume

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  169. Bernard von NotHaus, 67, was convicted Friday by a federal jury of making, possessing and selling his own coins, said Anne M. Tompkins, U.S. attorney for the Western District of North Carolina.

    The United States is seeking the forfeiture of about 16,000 pounds of Liberty Dollar coins and precious metals, valued at nearly $7 million. The forfeiture trial, which began Friday before U.S. District Court Judge Richard Voorhees, will resume April 4 in the federal court in Statesville, N.C.

    The 2007 raid was a development in a dispute between von NotHaus and the U.S. government. In a federal suit filed in March 2007 in U.S. District Court in Evansville, von NotHaus sought a permanent injunction against the federal government to force it to stop referring to the Liberty Dollar as an illegal currency and to require the removal of a warning from the U.S. Mint's website stating that use of the Liberty Dollar violates federal law.

    http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/mar/19/local-liberty-dollar-architect-found-guilty/

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  170. I just have to repeat my word verification during that massive upswing:

    BOOMEN

    And so far gold which also shot up, is just limping along, but silver is nipping at $37. This is parabolic.

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  171. As underhanded as the TBTF banks may be...
    1) COMEX allows its vendors to pay in cash instead of deliver physical silver (without any crazy premium), so JPM has absolutely no need to raid SLV.
    2) No way in hell JPM's lawyers would allow JPM to "raid" SLV. That would be accessory to grand theft and fraud and who knows how many other crimes.
    3) "IF" JPM had to have physical silver to satisfy contracts, they would purchase and redeem lots of SLV shares, likely driving up the price of SLV.

    just my thoughts...
    hold physical
    long call options on slv/gld/uco, long on miners/agq/ugl/energy producers

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  172. I'm finding it incredibly hard to work today. I just keep staring at the charts! haha

    My hat off to the community here. Shared commentary from Turd and all posters have really helped me make more informed decisions on when to hold em, when to fold em, when to walk away and when to run.

    My April SLV calls just passed 100% return in the span of roughly 2 weeks. My first 1-bagger in AG. Woot!

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  173. wacktion - maybe should be spelt whacktion - but awesome word.

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  174. Jake,

    Ah... Outside of Mexico. I was thinking they'd want to grab some more Mexican silver, I know Endeavour loves Mexico. If they buy Mexico I stick by my Impact Silver guess. If they go outside then it becomes much harder, but I think they'd want to stick close to home as much as possible. My pick then is going to be Tahoe Resources. The Escobal property is high grade silver and it's in Guatemala so it's close to Endeavour's other operations. There you go, there's my completely made up bullshit guesses.

    Yukon

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  175. @eric#1,

    The EXK story at the top of the thread.

    http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=123448&sn=Detail&pid=92730

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  176. Thankfully I got back in. I bought at 830 got 36.45 and turned it off. YES!!!!! Never a stop agian.

    ReplyDelete
  177. I would like ETF exposure to a broad agriculture fund that concentrates on growers/producers. Most of what I can find has distributors and supermarket chains included, but I feel like the middle and end of the chain are most likely to be experience margin squeeze. Anyone have any favorites?

    To answer questions about people who want leveraged exposure to gold, silver, and oil but don't have options or futures access through an IRA, I have my 401k in 40:30:30 in AGQ:UGL:UCO. You might also check out NUGT. Leveraged ETFs carry risks. Do your own due diligence.

    ReplyDelete
  178. Marcel

    Thanks. Serves me right for being guilty as charged with sort of quick skimming TF's post and going straight to the comments!

    YEs,the guy did say "outside Mexico" and Impact is definately all Mexico. That being said, there is SOMETHING weird going on with Impact. I asked the group about it last night and got zero feedback.

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  179. Pretty soon I'll get timed out by the internet police here at work so don't be surprised if I just disappear suddenly until much later tonight.

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  180. Well, at least Blythe understands the old banking maxium that possession is 9/10ths of the law:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/259549-will-jpmorgan-now-make-and-take-delivery-of-its-own-silver-shorts

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  181. Great action today makes me hesitant about terrible Thursday as it approachs. I am no trowl but I am wary of everytime Gold approachs its old highs. I would love to see massive short-covering this afternoon and tommorrow don't get me wrong. But I will not underestimate the power of the Orc Bullion Banks.

    what might be interesting is if the miners play catch up and go up regardless. This would be a major development and a big positive. Maybe hedgie quants will start panicking and vomiting and covering their diapers.

    Its just gut feeling, the charts say otherwise.

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  182. regarding real estate convo,

    After trying unsuccessfully to sell my house in exurban Detroit for 2 years, I ditched via strategic default in late 2007.

    In 2008 we bought our farm in eastern Canada for $500/ acre plus house @ $25/ square foot. Our motivation is security and self sufficiency in the new normal. House is more then a little ragged around the edges, but is livable. So far we have completely replaced septic, electrical and plumbing systems. Still to come furnace, windows, siding and a roof on the back part of the house. I figure all the updates at ~ $25/ square foot doing 90% of the work ourselves.

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  183. Finally, a good day for all... enjoy!

    Turd,

    Lots of JPM "vault" talk... I'm sure I speak for all waiting for your take (with input from your contacts).

    Thx...srv

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  184. averagejoe

    I don't like stops either. They know what they are. It's like telling the used car salesman ahead of time just where your point of maximum pain is.

    ReplyDelete
  185. @ Marcel,
    Thanks, I had completely forgotten about that. You must've been doing some catching up on comment this morning. I think there are quite a few of us who don't move on to new threads without first getting up to speed on the comment action!

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  186. @ My.Harbl.Testes

    Is your nick an anagram of BM or am I just hallucinating with her name after all we went through?

    ReplyDelete