Friday, January 21, 2011

$1600 Gold By June 10, 2011

Have you ever had a thought stuck in your head? A nagging, bugging feeling that you sense order or disorder, yet you can't quite seem to put all the pieces together. It can become a sort of obsession, if you let it, until you finally have the "A-HA" moment. This is where I've been for past couple of weeks.

Since early December, things haven't felt right in the precious metals. The fundamentals have stayed strong, of that there can be no doubt, but price continued sideways to down. The Evil Empire has seized upon this malaise since the calendar turned and prices have finally fallen sharply. The CFTC position limits  hearings revealed themselves to be a total sham and, just today, we got our third margin increase in six weeks. An unprecedented attempt to frighten regular investors out of Blythe's haunted castle! Through all of this, that nagging, bugging feeling persisted...that is, until this afternoon.

Earlier today, it started to come together. I posted a note that made a new date and time guarantee. The last one I made ($1350 by Halloween when gold was below $1200 in late July) was pretty good. Its probably part of the reason you followed me here in the first place. This morning, when all seemed lost and many were getting nervous about our precious PMs, I gave you $1600 by Memorial Day, 5/30/10. I must admit that I kind of pulled those numbers out of thin air but, almost instinctively, I knew that they felt correct. That nagging, bugging feeling again. Then, at the gym this afternoon, I finally got it.

I came home and quickly printed this chart. Got out a calculator and a calendar and started scribbling. Behold that original piece of art; yours for posterity.
Because most of this is unintelligible, please allow me to summarize.

As you know, gold has been in a long-term, secular bull market since 2001. This hasn't changed nor will it anytime soon. The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 changed the fundamentals, however. Instead of mainly being an anti-US dollar hedge, gold became a global hedge against all fiat currencies for reasons too lengthy to recap here. Conveniently, this chart takes us back to about March 2009, which is significant as that is the time period when FASB bowed to the extreme political pressure being applied to it and allowed accounting changes for the TBTF banks, thereby assuring a slow, brutal death to the current, Keynesian monetary system.

The rally in gold that began in early 2009 peaked the week of 5/29/09 at $996. A correction ensued and gold fell to $923 six weeks later for a drop of 7.33%.

It then rallied for 20 weeks, reaching a high of $1234 the week of 12/4/09, for a gain from the low of 25.2%. The corrective bottom was 9 weeks later in the week of 2/5/10 at 1058. Ouch. That was a loss  of 14.26%. That's it, the bull market in gold must have been over. Right? Well, that's what Prechter said. Oops. Wrong again, Bobby.

The rally from those lows lasted until the week of 6/25/10 or another 20 weeks. The peak was $1267, which constituted a gain of 19.75%. Uh-oh, here comes another correction. This one lasted 5 weeks and took us back to $1162. Another 8.29% drop. Yikes! This was about the time I issued "$1350 by Halloween". I was ridiculed on ZH. I was also proven right by early October.

Back up gold went, reaching another high exactly 19 weeks later at $1432, or another 23.24%. This has been followed by our current setback of 6 weeks in duration. At $1345, the pullback is 6.07%. At 7 weeks and $1320, the damage will be 7.82% and just about complete.

I firmly believe that there is absolutely no reason not to expect the pattern to continue so, follow closely, as this is some pretty complicated math...
20 weeks from this Friday...assuming the lows for this correction are made this week, is 6/10/11.
19 weeks from next Friday...assuming the lows are made next week, is 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1345 puts us at $1614 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
A 20% gain off of a low of 1320 puts us at $1584 sometime during the week of 6/10/11.
Let's split the difference: $1600 on or before 6/10/11.

There you have it. It's not complicated and it doesn't need to be. Market "analysts" like to make forecasting seem very complicated with all their charts and stochastics and RSIs and SMAs. Its all bullshit designed to get you to think that the "analyst" is smarter than you and worthy of your time and attention....and money.

So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value. If I'm right...well, let's just say it would be perfectly appropriate for you to hit the "Feed The Turd" button every day for the rest of your life.

So, in the end, rest well. The turn is near. I honestly have no idea whether the bottom will be this week at 1345 or next week near 1320. What I do know, however, is that gold and silver are about to commence their next UP moves. Be sure you are on board when it happens. Turd out.


8:30 EST UPDATE:
All posts today will be an update of this particular thread because I feel the info above is extremely important and I don't want it pushed down the homepage and replaced by another dollar chart.
Speaking of the dollar, lets start there. It looks terrible. What will TPTB come up with this time to rescue it from 78.47 on the March contract? Who knows but it looks more and more like 77-77.50 is coming very soon. The metals are still heading lower this morning, which, in the grand scheme of things, is just fine. I'm confident now that gold will bottom next week, near 1320.
Someone asked earlier about silver and whether I could make a similar forecast in that metal, comparable to the gold forecast above. In truth, I can't. Too many crazy and wild rumors out there. Pull a number between 35 and 100 out of a hat and you'll have just as much chance of being right as I do. Here's what I can say, however, and I think this is significant.
In early November, right after the announcement of QE2, the PMs suffered a similar, confounding decline. You can read all about it if you go back and search the history of this blog, which is located to your right. At any rate, the fundos were overwhelmingly positive yet the PMs kept trading lower. Does this sound familiar? It should, since the first of the year, we have had to deal with a remarkably similar situation. In the current case, the PMs have tanked in the face of tremendous dollar weakness. Just like November, it doesn't make any sense. Well, since humans are pack animals, I firmly believe the end result of this selloff in silver will be almost exactly the same.
March11 silver peaked on 11/9/10 at $29.40 and then declined to bottom of 25.05 on 11/16. It re-tested that bottom the next day and then began its next leg higher. The total down move was 14.8%.
March 11 silver then peaked on 1/4/11 at 31.28. Subtracting the same 14.8% gives us 26.65, which is remarkably, and not coincidentally, right near major, huge and significant support at $26.50.
So, let the metals come in a little more. Sometime next week, we'll likely get the chance to "buy the bottom" near 1320 in gold and 26.50 in silver.
More later.

NOON EST UPDATE:
So far, a very nice rebound in copper, the dollar is holding on for dear life and the HUI is back well above 500. Let's see what the next 90 minutes hold. I did get filled on some March11 $30 silver calls this morning. I'll certainly be buying more if we get down to 26.50-65 early next week.

1:30 EST UPDATE:
The March USDX is trying ever so hard to close the week below the critical 78.45 level. There was a weekly double bottom there in mid and late November. Though is seems lately as if the dollar and PMs are positively correlated, I can assure you that condition is temporary. Precious metals are the ultimate fiat hedge so it is 100% likely that, eventually, dollar weakness will once again translate to PM strength.
A March USDX close under 78.40 virtually assures that next week will be very tough for the dollar. The next breakdown will take us to 77.50 if not 77.
As background for my next post later today, please be sure that you have read the 8:30 update above. I'm going to expand on the remarkable "coincidences" of price and time on the PM charts and how these "coincidi"(?) are giving me such extreme confidence.
Finally, I feel that this is truly one of, if not the, most important post I have made. Please "spam" a link to it wherever else you hang out. Thanks.
More later this afternoon. TF

7:00 pm EST UPDATE:
The USDX did, in fact, settle under support at 78.37. In the afterhours market, it got even weaker and traded down to 78.12. This ugly fact is going to sit on the face of the dollar bulls all weekend long.
I felt compelled to add this note from Santa. It is the most succinct and accurate post I've seen yet regarding the odd gold/$ relationship of late. As always, heed Santa.
I'll have much more for you tomorrow as next week is definitely going to be interesting. TF

Posted: Jan 21 2011     By: Jim Sinclair      Post Edited: January 21, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Filed under: In The News
Dear CIGAs,
Gold today is a perfect example of what our present markets are about.
The US dollar pulls back to the underside of a box formation and falls away. That is a classic bearish formation and the algorithms sell the dollar heavily.
Gold and gold shares injured by the Euro holders of gold liquidating as the euro rises draws a negative technical picture, and the algorithms sell gold and gold shares.
Algorithms have no mind.
Algorithms are exercises in advanced mathematics.
Algorithms will turn and buy gold the instant the fundamental guys say enough.
What has injured the field will benefit the field. For me, on my speculative side, it is an opportunity in calls on the various gold shares that have performed well over the last year as the sheeples sell and the option professional try to take them out at pennies in the April maturity.
On an unrelated topic, what if your town goes broke? What do you do with your garbage? I make a lot of mulch, and have a really well placed burn pile. Think about it.
Margin rates move higher, always, in a bull market. It is good, not bad news for price. Some day the public may learn that, but do not hold your breath. Some day commentators in our gang may learn that. Do not hold your breath for that either.

174 comments:

  1. I believe that not only will you be vindicated, you will have to apologize for guessing so low!
    -
    There is a movement going on...

    http://thehardrightedge.com
    -
    Scott J

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  2. Turd,

    When do you think Spain's going to hit the skids? If they can keep it together until mid-year (like I think they can), you may just be right. If things go south March-May, you won't get $1600 - there will be too much of a pullback in all assets, even our PMs. Another credit unraveling will pull things back, not like 2000 or 2008 - there's too much fear in the system, reason to seek inflation hedges, and talk of gold-backed reserve currency - but we will get hit if that happens.

    The questions are when it will happen and whether people will move more into Treasurys or commodities when the Euro tanks.

    What are your thoughts?

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  3. Well worth staying up for, thanks!.....what an interesting analysis.....but of course, as an engineer, I have to ask, why not a potential 9 week correction this time? To make sure I wasn't jumping in on a false peak (like the middle of the 9 week correction) I think I'd look for a solid 2 weeks of up before jumping back in (JMHO).

    But it is kind of sick (in a good way) that this puppy seems to work on about a 6 month cycle....would have loved this analysis before the current peak....but now prepared for the next...have you tried this on any of the other commodities?

    But I think I do have a theory for why 20 weeks runup....Blythe's monkeys have to keep track of the weeks before the next attack, and if it were more than 20 they'd run out of fingers and toes.... ;-)

    Many thanks for the effort and the insight!

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  4. Turd, I don't care if you're right or not on this one. You've been right so many times in the past about the fundamental status of the PMs, in particular silver, that I don't mind if you're wrong once in a while... ;-)

    Your blog along with ZH, JS, Eric Sprott, and many others (in addition to my own research) has solidified a __MAJOR__ economic change for me. I lucked out with a good business opportunity this year and am now able to put in 120% of my 2010 gross income into PMs. I'm not even close to being a millionaire, but I know that the only way out is through hyper-inflation in the US. Globally I think we're on the verge of a new reserve currency.

    Thank you for this posting! While obvious after reading the post (the "duh!" moment), it wasn't obvious to me earlier today. The market has just wreaked of foul dealings these last two weeks... fucken bailouts for JPM (position limits, copper margin decreases, long-damaging silver margin increases)... I can't say thank you enough.

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  5. kiwiquest07.com,
    There may be another reason for the ~ 19 + 6 pattern... I wonder if there is something we can determine in an 10-Q/K somewhere?

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  6. Turd, is your line in the sand physical or paper gold price? Don't forget them's fightin' words and Blythe may want her wicked way with you..

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  7. Shall we start a pool on where we think silver will be when gold hits Turd's $1600? I'll take $36.00. Kind of makes you not too worried about whether you buy in at 28 or 27 or 26...

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  8. Auch, the midnight monkey attack is commencing...

    Just for my cautious "9 week beatdown" theory, where do you think that would put prices? Figuring a full 14.26% loss, I'm thinking about $1228.

    Thanks again!

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  9. HRH Turd,
    I've been with you since the start and I'll be with you to the end ( "the end " being I'm sure sometime when we are old and grey and reminiscing about the good old days...)
    You have keep your promise about always telling it straight, as you see it.

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  10. I'd mentioned on Saturday that I felt we'd see more downside in silver this week, potentially into the $26.XX range. If tomorrow's as ugly as today on the back of the latest margin raise, we'll get there.

    I'd like to believe that $26.50 will hold, but I'm wary about a looming correction in equities. We're long overdue, and watching the indexes struggle the past few days doesn't much inspire confidence. If we get a meaningful quity market correction, silver and gold are going to get dragged down even further.

    I'm stopping at my local coin shop to buy more bullion tomorrow (gradually scaling into my position), but I'm sitting on my hands and not adding more to my core ETF/stock positions until there's stronger evidence of a tradable bottom.

    I'm itchy to buy, but my gut says we'll get better opportunities in the coming weeks. Good luck to all.

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  11. If you're familiar with Martin Armstrong's work, the next big turning point in his global economic confidence model is on 2011.45. The .45 represents the percentage of days in a year so 365 * .45 = 164.25 days, which turns out to be around June 13.

    I also know of another newsletter writer that has uncovered a similar cycle. That writer mentioned that he expects a short term bounce in gold, followed by another leg down with the low of the cycle ending in mid February. I don't know if he'll be correct, but it's interesting analysis with a similar length and activity to the cycle you mentioned.

    Impressive realization Turd.

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  12. Turd,
    Tomorrow you give us your silver prediction?

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  13. No need to close the blog if you don't get it right.

    You are in part trying to predict the behaviour of JPM and HSBC who could for one reason or other change their plans, especially since we are well down the QE road that is proving a failure. A change of plan is quite possible.

    The whole global edifice is still creaking and groaning and now something new coming into the equation - China from now on wont be like the past two years. They have to start taking stringent action to knock inflation on the head, so that may interfere with the pattern.

    The pattern going forward might not be exactly as the past, in fact you might think it will become even more volatile with magnified moves in prices. As one commentator mentioned, near the end you might get fluctuations of $100 in a day.

    But I like your current prediction that we are in or are about to enter one of those patterned lows, and that is all we really need to know right now, as a PM bull market is almost guaranteed given the global state of affairs. The knowledge of where the low might be is the most important info.

    I wont be changing my metals holding I dont think. Funny gold and silver have gone down for Americans but hardly so much here in Australia as the AUD has gone down a similar amount.

    I am however poised to get into a few miners given this news and hopefully another take down tonight and maybe next week will knock down the shares some more.

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  14. Excellent analysis, Your Turdship!

    May I add one very strange change which nobody seems to be mentioning. The lease rate for silver - the interest to be paid on borrowed or leased silver (what we can call 'other people's silver') has just shot up, indicating that the white metal is is very short supply for leasing purposes - i.e. when physical is used by the bullion banks to act as 'collateral' for the selling 'forays' into the silver market. If you look at the silver lease charts at the bottom of the kitco.com silver price page, you will see on the silver (small) chart that all monthly lease rates are positive. If you look at the bottom (1 year chart), you will see that that the 1,2,3 an 6 month lease rates have all been negative for a long time which means the leaser pays you if you 'borrow' their metal!! This is the vehicle they have been using to do what they do so effectively. Now you can also see 'spikes' occurring quite regularly - a little like 'head fakes' which then return to their previously low level after only a day but this time they have stayed up for 2 days so i am watching what happens next. If they stay up i.e in positive territory, someone should ask Harvey Organ how significant this is. I know Bob Chapman used to advise that the lease rates were a great 'tell' when the BB when going to mount a raid because they would dip a few days prior. This is the opposite - even though they have staged a sell-down over the last few days.

    As ZHers are fond of saying - just sayin'.

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  15. As I said . 26.xx before the end of the week.

    25 next week?

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  16. Please don't quit (or leave ZH) even if your timing is off. Jim Sinclair has been wrong on timing on several occasions, but people who listen to him have made great gains.

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  17. I would love to see it, but these criminals have a lot of tricks up their sleeves. Margin requirements increases and I'm waiting to see a special tax on gold and silver. I'm sure Summers talked Obama into something like that by promising him Wall street will be a benevolent dictator of the country extend the unemployment bennies out past the election

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  18. Dearest Turd if you leave we will just have to invent a new "Turd".
    Maybe even clone you.
    Please saves us of all this trouble and stay whatever happens to your call.
    (just ordered "cloning for dummies" )

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  19. Here is another bit of highly unscientific analysis for you.

    If you look at the mid Jan.- early Feb. 2010 sell-off on the daily chart (stockchart.com, par example), it looks uncannily like the sell-off we have just experience since the beginning of the year, complete with an attempt to rally which fails. If there is a similarity here, there is one difference, the current sell-off was much shorter-lived (I use the past tense because if this is correct it will finish today or Monday. If history deigns to repeat itself, it will end (today or Monday) with a bullish hammer, scaring the living daylights out of some longs who capitulate only for the price to rebound later in the trading session. Don't ask me for a specific bottom price, I'm not that clever. I feel the BB are playing a dangerous game down here, though because, as we know, the COMEX could be drained of 'the real stuff' in two seconds flat if silver is pushed down any further. Those who have promised to accept a cash settlement might change their minds. Here's an analogy for you. What they are doing is trying to walk across the edge of Niagara Falls. If they slip, either the current will carry them over the edge or they will just fall over the edge. They cannot afford to hammer (remember to watch out for a bullish hammer) the price too much otherwise all physical will be gone.

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  20. Gary Savage says something very close to your position, Thanks Mr T

    As expected gold is now putting in the next leg down. It’s getting late enough in the daily cycle that we should get a temporary bottom and a bounce strong enough to lure the suckers back in. Keep in mind this bounce will almost certainly be a failure followed by one more daily cycle lower as stocks work their way down into a yearly cycle low. So far the dip in gold is no where near severe enough to qualify as a yearly cycle low. My best guess is at least 3 more weeks before we can begin to start looking for our entry.

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  21. Barb/Eric, silver at 40 when gold at 1600 but it will go to 23 and change first. By June 10th, gold at 1750 and silver at 46.

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  22. [By June 10th, gold at 1750 and silver at 46. ]

    If as is being said gold and silver will rally strongly by June it wont matter too much using the bottom as now and if it goes down further buy in further time.

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  23. I want to see those big green candles in Miners on a red overall market day.....NO emotion stay patient....wait til the big money buys the miners and jump in with them....EGO GFI HL ANV SSRI SLW

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  24. Well I finally got off my butt and set up my Gmail account. Don't have to use "da wife's" anymore.

    I do agree with commenters above that if we get a serious correction in equities, which I'm quite concerned about, then commodities in general and metals in particular will get taken down hard and throw all these cycles off. So keep some dry powder at all times to take advantage of bargains that come your way. Long term fundamentals are still on our side.

    Not Barb anymore...

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  25. Great blog, just fed to the tune of an ounce of silver. Thanks for your work.

    Follow up question: in December if I remember correctly there was some questions about Santa's call for gold at $1650, and there were some recommendations for out-of-money calls that, if the prediction were true, would cost $160 and pay off over $17,000. I didn't jump at that time, but I am wondering about possibilities now.

    Can you recommend some out-of-money call options that us po' folk might be able to use for speculation? I am thinking gold at around $1320 - what would June $1500 call options cost, and what would they pay if gold went to $1600 as predicted? I'm willing to wait 5 months for a 10x return on investment (or more). It seems like relatively little risked for a potentially significant gain.

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  26. "So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value"
    Will hold you to this, sir.

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  27. JWC, I am doing the same, I found some nice silver calls at 38$ for a little more than a euro that expire only in December. I guess we make this year at least the same 70% as last year, if not 100*X% with X in [1, 10], given the physical shortage.
    So if I buy options, I can hold them until the end of the year and the dip just reduces my effective leverage from 12 to 11 or so...
    I think I'll slowly build up a position.

    Now some questions for the Turd:
    It seems you trade futures and options, why both? Isn't the non-existence of margin calls in options THE advantage of options? Why still trade futures?
    Ah and what other vehicles you use to trade (except mining stocks)? Would it be wise to diversify options on silver AND gold, since the latter is much more unlikely to suffer from a paper-metal decoupling?
    Finally, what are your indicators that paper and metal decouple and what do you plan to do then?

    Best regards, love this blog!

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  28. Maybe the beginning of the year has renewed budgets for smack downs. Governments and large organizations (banks) plan things based on calendar years. By the end of the year they dont have much firepower left? I wonder if this kind of consideration has any merit.

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  29. I'm looking at nice gains today in the jr miners considering not much move in silver. Looking good so far.

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  30. Turd-

    I appreciate your passion and insights regarding the PM's, and visit your blog daily. I value the fact that you're willing to share your thought process and handwritten chart analysis, more than any specific calls on $ and dates. The backstory is what I'm most interested in, as it provides the overall context I use to invest in the PM's (I'm not a short-term trader....yet).

    I've learned a ton from the quality comments of other "Turdites" on your blog, and view my "feed the Turd" donations and any trading risk I assume based on what I learn here, as a form of tuition in exchange for a great education on the PM's.

    With that said, I for one, would be disappointed if you called it quits if the June prediction of $1600 doesn't play out exactly as you project. Too many exogenous events could derail that prediction and we'd miss out on some valuable lessons and dialog if you closed up shop.

    Keep doin' what you're doin' -- it's the reason most of us followed you over here from ZH.

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  31. Turd and all :

    Have you read that :

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln#h[HRaIwb,1]

    The last turn in the game is near !

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  32. Hourly silver suggests that we'll see some short covering soon.

    I hope lol.

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  33. @ legerde, I think I remember reading somewhere that European central bank uses December and June gold price as basis for valuing gold reserves backing the euro (vs. US valuing gold at $42/oz). So higher price means they can issue more euros. They don't care what happens the following couple of months. Not absolutely sure of this info tho.

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  34. When you watch the dollar slide and the PMs sitting idle and not exploding higher, you know that the price reset has not completed. Turd, you're right. I will sit back and let the prices come to me. Done with chasing for the time being.

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  35. @ Marvin: at least this will make someone happy:
    "JP Morgan is the largest processor of food stamp benefits in the United States. JP Morgan has contracted to provide food stamp debit cards in 26 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. JP Morgan is paid for each case that it handles, so that means that the more Americans that go on food stamps, the more profits JP Morgan makes."

    Rest of the story is here: http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2011/01/un-freakin-believeable/

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  36. Turd-First, you should not go away under any circumstance. Gold could be at $1,000 on Memorial Day and your service here would still be invaluable. You are spreading the word about the economic collapse that will happen and the long-term trends of gold and silver.

    That being said, I hope you are wrong. Many people still want more time to accumulate at lower prices and days like yesterday help!

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  37. http://www.thetradingreport.com/2011/01/19/an-interpretation-of-the-china-silver-short-theory-and-fractional-reserve-bullion/

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  38. Head: I'll get you some info on prices over the weekend.
    Jwc: YOU won't need to. I'll do it myself.
    Daniel: I trade option on futures only.
    Legerde: No. It doesn't work that way.
    Hang-10: I'll let everyone decide if I can be within $25 or $50 and still qualify for keeping the blog open.

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  39. FOFOA has an article about this 6 month deja vu and why it may be happening. Worth checking out:

    FOFOA:
    It's Déjà vu All Over Again
    TUESDAY, JANUARY 4, 2011
    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/01/its-deja-vu-all-over-again.html

    Look at the charts on these two FIRST trading days of the 6 month period:
    July 1, 2010
    http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/gold/24_hours/2010/au07012010.gif
    January 4th, 2011
    http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/gold/24_hours/2011/au01042011.gif

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  40. reefman: FOFOA reads The Turd. I'm honored.

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  41. Well, another .50 dollar down day WITH gold down....The correlation only works when it does....As I've said 3 times here, the dollar is coiling and will be used as correlation/gold when "They" say it will.As in, when it reverses up...That said, I bought miners yesterday and looking for one more thrust down to add....my target 1316

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  42. According to bloomberg article..
    China exported 1575 tons silver.
    (down 58% from last year)

    China imported 5159 tons silver
    (up 15% from last year)

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  43. Turd says [Though is seems lately as if the dollar and PMs are positively correlated, I can assure you that condition is temporary. Precious metals are the ultimate fiat hedge so it is 100% likely that, eventually, dollar weakness will once again translate to PM strength.] Key words, temporary and eventually....I don't like this incessant dollar drop WITHOUT a resultant gold pop....We are being "set up".

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  44. Gold Standard Fully Supported By... Alan Greenspan!?

    from Zerohedge

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  45. OT, but just in case anyone else sees JPM credit card ads on ZH or anywhere else online -- I get a huge kick out of the fact that the line is called Chase Ink (TM).

    Also, on KWN - James Turk claims Silver is in backwardation:
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/21_James_Turk_-_Silver_in_Backwardation,_Set_to_Explode.html

    There are a set of very interesting silver articles on ZH from yesterday as well, discussing spreads and the effects of the margin hike.

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  46. PS: If you see a JPM ad on this or any other site, please be sure to click it. Twice.

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  47. I did my bit against JPM yesterday. Had 2 bankers fly over 800 miles to meet me for lunch and then told them my company had no business to do with them.

    Nice lunch they paid for though, and I am sure the flights were not cheap.

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  48. Just decided to grab a little more SLW near the close.

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  49. March USDX contract closed under 78.40 at 78.37.

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  50. [ March USDX contract closed under 78.40 at 78.37.] And gold went down.......

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  51. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  52. Sell-off in mining shares across board during the last few trading minutes tells me someone was front-running a raid, folks. I could be wrong but such selling preceded each past rigging since October if not before that. I think there's still one more push down ahead but we are close to the bottom.

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  53. Relative calmness from the EURO region eased the need for gold and overshadowed the weakness of the dollar wich had the safety net of a range trade.
    But falling through important suppport will renew the attitude that gold is a dollar hedge.
    My 2 cents.

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  54. @Jeff: If you go back to about October, when the (alleged) Buyers of Size got involved, PM's really haven't correlated well with movements in the USDX.

    November was a particularly wild month where the USDX rose from 77 to 81 (mostly on EUR weakness) and gold went from roughly $1,350 to roughly $1,400.

    In rank order, here are what I believe to be the price drivers at the moment:

    1) End of the Keynesian experiment (slow-motion train wreck, general upward price pressure).

    2) Desire/ability of TPTB and paper shorts to manipulate price down and sustain the Keynesian experiment for a little while longer.

    3) COMEX delivery cycle and physical shortages (esp. in silver)

    4) Hedge funds and other Buyers of Size entering/exiting the market (appears to have a correlation with #3)

    5) Daily movements in the dollar vs. other currencies.

    Just my .02.

    ReplyDelete
  55. @ brad pitts

    Wow, that URL has a stunning but plausible theory in there. If it's true it may explain why BOS are holding off on this raid: They are the one rigging it behind the scene @CRIMEX so they can purchase more at a lower price @LME. Makes sense, no?

    ReplyDelete
  56. I wonder if it's possible that we'll get to 1320 and 26.50, then have a blowup in Europe and go lower.

    As stated above though, PMs have gone up on EUR weakness before.

    ReplyDelete
  57. @Rui: Can you define "front running a raid" please? Thanks mate.

    ReplyDelete
  58. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  59. @RoCoach

    Say my buddy @ JPMorgue's trading desk informs me they are about to rig silver to certain level the next day. What do I do? I immediate short/put the mining stocks as they are like the leveraged play on silver. I then wait for Morgue to pull the trigger and cover my short/put once the target price is reached.

    I'm not saying that's exactly how it happens but it should be close to that.

    ReplyDelete
  60. I certainly am taking my time this year to get into market, I dont think one should hurry.

    Just a weird feeling I fave

    ReplyDelete
  61. also this:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-repatriation-offshore-cash-hoard-lead-dollar-surge-goldmans-take-second-homeland-invest

    ReplyDelete
  62. Turd,

    Could you point a reader to an explanation of precisely how the mechanics of rolling of futures contracts works? I'm having a tough time drilling down who on each side of the trade needs to do what to settle up and when. If you get to this, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Turd, King reports Turk claiming 12 month backwardation, but my friends that trade this stuff says no way, how can I confirm this.

    ReplyDelete
  64. I thought this was interesting and would serve as (yet another) catalyst for gold ...

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/01/the-shanghai-flag/

    ReplyDelete
  65. Calling all Turdites,

    As much as I've learned through Turd's blog and zero hedge, I have a major question on what to do with my 401K. Any info is appreciated. Here I go.

    To get fully vested I need 5 years with my company. I have 4 years, so one more and I get the full amount of contributions between the company and myself. With that said, I've been thinking about withdrawing the cash, pay the penalties, and buy physicals.

    I'd hate to not get the fully vested amount, so if I decided to move away into a self-brokeraged account what options do I have to weather the possible market collapse? The rules state that in a self-directed account you cannot buy precious metals but it makes no stance that I couldn't buy ETF's. That said, if I went the PM ETF route it's just paper in the end. I suppose I could go into PSLV but even then, is that a good enough hedge? Is anyone else there in my situation that wants to leverage a 401K to the best possible outcome if a crash happened?

    The only other thing I can think of is short the market, maybe go into a bear ETF that shorts financials, emerging markets, or even ticker: DOG to short the DOW index. Any insight on how I can preserve my 401K?

    ReplyDelete
  66. thecoloredsky-

    Depending on the funds available in your 401k, you might just stick it in the money market or other super-safe (and super low return) fund and practice patience for a year til vesting. Consider the vesting amount as the return on your investment.

    Regarding ETFs, unlike others here, I'm not real concerned about a SHTF Mad Max future where you absolutely have to have metal in your hand....I'm figuring that contract law will (mostly) hold up for the next several years. I'm not in any PM trust ETFs, but I'm sure some have a decent track record.

    And do consider the risk, especially if this is your only retirement money.....as I've learned since Jan 1st, PM funds go down faster than they go up, especially the leveraged ones...before I bailed, I lost about 10% in some miner funds in 2 weeks. It's all fun and games til somebody loses an eye....

    ReplyDelete
  67. Co_Dan Everything we already know. I watch the markets, including gold, tick for tick, 24/7. I'm just saying it doesn't look good. All the reports of backwardation, Comex defaults have been with us for a long time. "They" don't give a crap. "They" will do what they always do. I have stared at the screen with amazement because it didn't make any fundamental sense a hundred times. Remember '08 when TSHTF and gold went down ? If you remember then you know all those fundos don't mean a thing.

    ReplyDelete
  68. I'm kinda with Jeff on this....I've tried to come up with logical connections between events and situations and the PM prices until my head hurts....the brilliance of Turd's approach is he identifies a repeating pattern, and we are just betting on the possibility of that pattern repeating itself one more time, without trying or needing to identify the elements that may combine to create that repeating pattern.

    Kind of like the sun rising each morning, you don't have to understand the underlying orbital mechanics to be able to make a bet that it will happen again. I like it!

    ReplyDelete
  69. colorredsky......put your 401k in pslv phys.....and read turd.....try NOT to overtrade....when the SHTF and imo it will...you probably need to have your acct in these and NOT a money market.....I was involved the manager of a large hedge fund in 2008 when we broke the buck in money markets on sept 15.....I had warned him it was coming and closed down 2 of my accts a week before it hit......if you believe Kiwi...then by all means sit on your money

    ReplyDelete
  70. Love these excerpts from the Barron's Roundtable discussion from Jan. 15...

    Marc Faber, whose investment acument I trust immensely said, "I no longer regard the U.S. dollar as a valid unit of account." Those words from Marc, made all the more pointed by Bill Gross, who followed that up by saying he agreed with many of Marc's views, although he didn't know if we were as far down the road to perdition as Marc thought we were.

    Gross did state that the U.S. was "employing instruments and vehicles and policies that smack of desperation. We are not looking at a default here, but at years of accepting inflation, which basically robs investors and labor of their real wages and earnings. We are looking at a currency that almost certainly will depreciate relative to other stronger currencies."

    ReplyDelete
  71. By the way, adding one more anecdote to the silver shortage rumors, I stopped by my local coin dealer today to pick up more silver - it's a big store, but they're practically cleaned out. The shop owner told me they're having a hard time locating silver maples and philharmonics, and that someone came in and bought all of their silver bars yesterday.

    The EE are idiots to keep driving the prices down. All it's doing is making physical silver disappear into private hands faster than it otherwise would. FUBM.

    ReplyDelete
  72. @CD, thanks for the silver backwardation article. Just read it, and was struck by the money quote by James Turk: "...The key to understanding backwardation is that the price must rise to entice holders of physical metal to sell and accept a national currency in return....The silver shorts simply cannot hold the paper price down here any longer without seriously discrediting the paper silver market as a price discovery mechanism."

    An employee at my coin shop mentioned in passing today that they haven't been able to convince any of their distribution partners or even dealers they trade inventory with, to part with the silver bullion they're holding at current prices. If this is a small scale example of backwardation in practice, it's only adding to the supply/demand pressures.

    ReplyDelete
  73. @thecoloredsky - I am not aware of HOW it is possible to get the funds out of an employer sponsored 401k without terminating your employment. If you know more on this, please do share. I don't want to give advice as to asset allocation, I can only share my own experience. I took out half of my 401k savings as a loan, bought physical Ag, left the rest in money market/near-term target date "prefab" retirement fund. I am seeking a new job like crazy, and praying that I am able switch jobs, cash out of the rest before S really HTF. For the moment, however, the revenue my job affords is far more important than the (paltry) remains of my retirement savings, so resigning JUST for that is not an option for me (can you say "debt slave"?)

    On a completely unrelated tangent, there is a new, interesting Wiki-like site dedicated to a question and answer format that could perhaps be useful in spreading info, comparing notes or preaching the gospel (if one is so inclined):
    www.quora.com. They do request using real names, but I can assure you this is not an enforceable policy.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Turd, really? You end this blog and I'm coming to Kansas to dig you out of your bunker. I learn more here than anywhere else on the internet. I have found myself impatiently waiting for updates and lately the comments on your site are much more informative than ZH comments(too many trolls fighting for attention). Do not quit!

    ReplyDelete
  75. @titaniumvt - I dunno if you had a chance to check it out, but the piece on ZH discussing the movement of the spreads in silver has a link buried in the comments pointing to an OLD article (from April 2010) on ZH which gives a very interesting historical account of the previous 2 massive 'silver market cornering' events from 1994 (Phibro and unnamed client) and 1997 (Grandpa Warren himself):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-second-whistleblower-emerges-deep-insiders-walkthru-silver-market-manipulation

    The more recent article is at: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-spreads-contango-crush-update
    Look for comments by the submitting author, fmxconnect.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Tim: You gave me a chuckle at the end of a long, arduous day. Thanks. TF

    Everyone, thanks for patience in dealing with my extended absences today. Much to cover tomorrow and Sunday as we prepare for next week. I'll try to have something new posted by 1:00 EST Saturday.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Thanks for making this blog, Turd. We all know you from ZH and we are grateful for your insights - and we all KNOW that these are MANIPULATED markets, so don't worry when you get things wrong, you are not the one that is wrong, it is the "MARKET" that is wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  78. @TF - please don't apologize for not updating the blog as frequently as we try to reload the page to see if there is an update. Your efforts and prolific writing have been tremendous. And like the many before me have said - please don't leave if your prediction is off by a few bucks or weeks. In fact, especially not then.

    In the meantime, I happened upon a fashion designer (of sorts) who could be called upon should one wish to send Lady Blythe a gift of appreciation:
    http://www.eveningarwen.com/modules/catalog/products/8/Galactic-Lord-Corset-Costume/

    ReplyDelete
  79. Just Posted an Article that I spent a bunch of time on; Would appreciate it if those could let me know the accuracy of my content, as I do not wish to be spreading false information.

    With that said, I think there is a lot of good information in it, along with my personal comments on last 6 months of silver and 40 years of the DXY index.

    http://thehardrightedge.com/2011/01/21/the-dollar-index/

    -
    Cheers,

    Scott J

    ReplyDelete
  80. @CD, thanks for the additional Zero Hedge links. Both fantastic to read through. This comment on the newer article caught my eye:

    By AR15AU: "Sorry to call bullsh1t on this article... but look at the setup on Silver Lease Rates.

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/s_leaserates.html

    A short squeeze is taking place NOW, and the powers that be are going to drop the equities market in order to deflate commodities and try to relieve some pressure. As soon as the sell off is over, it will be the last, best buying opportunity before the parabolic stage.

    WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS WHEN SILVERS LEASE RATE EXCEEDS THE YIELD OF TREASURY PAPER?"

    My spidey sense has been warning of a looming equity correction for the past week. I wouldn't put it past the Bernank to sacrifice equities temporarily to slap gold and silver down when they need to. Just going on intuition, it feels like we're days to a few weeks away from a ~15% equity market correction. Once the dust settles, it will be a great time to buy miners, physical and allocated ETFs with both fists.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I missed this when it was originally posted, and it has big potential upside for Canadian resource stocks, so posting here in case others missed it as well.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/chinas-sovereign-wealth-fund-sets-up-shop-in-toronto/article1867917/

    "With the mandate of investing a sizable portion of China’s $2.85-trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves ..."

    "China is preparing to step up its investments in Canada with the opening of a Toronto office for its deep-pocketed sovereign wealth fund, representing the first permanent foreign location for the state-backed institution."

    ReplyDelete
  82. So are we predicting a further take down of silver gold and equities for early next week?

    I may cash in all my stocks Monday which fortunately are all good profit levels, then buy back in the correction in my mining stocks.

    Australia opens first so I will be able to get in before any action in the US.

    ReplyDelete
  83. CD- "I am not aware of HOW it is possible to get the funds out of an employer sponsored 401k without terminating your employment. If you know more on this, please do share."

    I can move the 401K cash into a self-brokeraged account letting me pick and choose what I want to trade except certain things like metals. Now, I'm not 100% sure if the employer will continue to contribute since I am acting on my own, that is something I need to look into. But the fact still remains, the general funds supplied that I can choose from don't interest me in hedging against a market collapse. They're all bullish funds that will take a hit if 2008 repeats. I just think it's odd that if I move to a self-directed account, why are there investment limits? Why can't I buy PMs?

    Another funny thing, I looked into cashing the 401K as I said before. There's all these little "factoids" to deter you from doing this. It says (paraphrasing) "We understand that emergencies arise and you need money right away. Instead of paying the taxes to withdraw, why don't you try taking out a loan against your 401K? Maybe a personal bank loan? Maybe a loan from us?" They are screaming for people to take out loans and more loans... just goes to show how more debt solve problems I guess. Cracks me up.

    ReplyDelete
  84. thecoloredsky--Ok, so you are not taking a distribution, just using a self directed brokerage option within your 401(k). Sounds fine. My wife's former employer had that. Her's was a Schwab account.

    And you can't get physical metals into your brokerage account. That's fine too. You can do plenty of damage without them. Don't worry about that. So here are a few pointers for you:

    #1: Please, please, please consider this 401(k) money as just one part of your overall net worth and keep overall risk management paramount in your mind. Mining stocks are risky. Gold and Silver are risky. Shorting stocks is risky. Don't ever kid yourself that it's not.

    #2: Even the buggiest of the gold bugs seldom recommend more than maybe a 30% exposure to the metals markets. For that portion I might consider PSLV, GTU, GDX, or GDXJ. I shy away from individual miners except for maybe SLW or FCX. There are more options, but these alone are more than enough rope to hang yourself with.

    #3: I think you or somebody mentioned short stock ETF's. As the Turd mentioned recently, and I agree, with the Fed pouring money into the markets this is a dangerous time to be short anything. But if you must, DOG, DXD, SH, or SDS is more that enough choices.

    #4: Bonds. I know, I know, they are all going to zero in a US Dollar armageddon. But in the meantime you need to get some yield somewhere. I like TIP's. Even though I know they screw you with fraudulent CPI calculations, it's still way better than regular bonds. Check out TIP or STPZ. Or you can short bonds with TBT, but reread #3 above.

    #5: How about some stocks? Some things held up in 2008 better than others, and pay a dividend to boot. Think consumer staples. I like FDO, MCD, HNZ, or XEL. I like oil sands too, but they cratered in 2008 just like everything else. SU, CVE, CNQ, and COSWF are my favorites. Every barrel of oil produced is consumed immediately. And the world will need just as much next month or next year. Not so with gold.

    #6: What about cash? I know they are lying about inflation and real yields are negative right now, but you can't have everything swinging for the fences all the time. Instead of a garden variety money market fund I like STPZ as my stand-in for cash. Reread #1 and consider putting half your money in STPZ. Golds, shorts, stocks, should all be little bits.

    OK, that's all I've got. Everybody can now jump in and tear me apart. Point out all the problems with my advice on a point by point basis. That's ok. I'm a big boy. Just one man's opinion. That's what makes a market.

    Good Luck and be careful out there.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Also, if you are talking about merely choosing a self-directed option within your 401(k), I seriously doubt there would be any adverse impact in terms of employer matching, vesting, penalties, etc. Check with your benefits people, but I think you are OK on that front.

    ReplyDelete
  86. I found the saturday morning broadcasts over at KWN to be especially good today. Highly recommended.

    www.kingworldnews.com

    ReplyDelete
  87. Thanks Eric for the thoughtful reply, I will be looking into those options as you stated.

    ReplyDelete
  88. What is the CYA they always say? Do your own diligence. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Don't blame me if it all goes to hell in a handbasket. Et Cetera, Et Cetera, Blah, Blah, Blah. Good Luck ;)

    ReplyDelete
  89. Snagged another British Sovereign on fleaBay today. OK, this is absolutely positively the last bit of physical that I'm buying. Seriously. I really mean it this time. Well, I do have bids out on one more. But then, that's it. Really...

    ReplyDelete
  90. Let me be the first to say we've hit the lows in gold and silver. Why? Because hardly anyone else is.I might add that Harvey Organ's post today is nothing short of shocking. Silver is literally being cleaned out. 14 million ounces in the last couple of weeks. This cannot go on for long without a crisis and much higher prices.

    So BTFD. With both hands.

    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  91. Turd. first post here. Wonderful site! Thank you for all your efforts.

    Interesting audio and read ......
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgi4Q0GQ9bI

    http://silverstealers.net/tss.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  92. LOL, Eric.

    ...Pinch those fiat dollars. Squeeze every bit of physical out of them that you can. I have a feeling that one day we will look back and be glad that we cut corners somewhere else in order to afford more PMs.

    ReplyDelete
  93. The same thing happened at 450, 650, 1000, 1150 and now 1400. I think that we reached the bottom yesterday and we're now ready to break through 1400 again and head towards 1650/1700, where we will bounce around for a bit, before going higher.

    ReplyDelete
  94. He enthusiastically agreed and sped up the car.

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    "Go to the road and get help," he said. "I don't have anything to cover myself with!" she replied.

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  95. hosting mexicoCoffee Bags
    I missed this when it was originally posted, and it has big potential upside for Canadian resource stocks, so posting here in case others missed it as well.

    ReplyDelete
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  97. Ah! there I am not in a position to help you. But I suppose you want us to come out to-morrow?"

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  98. Then we shall take it. Your case has certainly some features of great interest, and I shall be delighted to look into it. Well, it's nearly one, and we had best get a few hours' sleep. I daresay you can manage all right on the sofa in front of the fire. I'll light my spirit lamp, and give you a cup of coffee before we start."text message
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  100. Cross to Chatham at six in the morning, and we should be at Yoxley Old Place between eight and nine."

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  102. "If it is not asking too much, Mr. Holmes. There's a train from Charing Cross to Chatham at six in the morning, and we should be at Yoxley Old Place between eight and nine."

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  103. Gold has been a valuable and highly sought-after precious metal for coinage, jewelry, and other arts since long before the beginning of recorded history. Gold standards have been the most common basis for monetary policies throughout human history, being widely supplanted by fiat currency only in the late 20th century. Gold has also been frequently linked to a wide variety of symbolisms and ideologies. A total of 165,000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history, as of 2009.[1] This is roughly equivalent to 5.3 billion troy ounces or, in terms of volume, about 8500 m3, or a cube 20.4 m on a side. The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.[2]

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  124. Peter Kent said the protocol "does not represent a way forward for Canada" and the country would face crippling fines for failing to meet its targets.

    The move, which is legal and was expected, makes it the first nation to pull out of the global treaty.
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  125. In a summary of the history of the concept of learning communities, Wolff-Michael Roth and Lee Yew Jin suggest that until the early 1990s, and consistent with (until then) dominant Piagetian constructivist and information processing paradigms in education, the individual was seen as the "unit of instruction" and the focus of research. Roth and Lee claim this as watershed period when, influenced by the work of Jean Lave, and Lave and Etienne Wengeramong others, researchers and practitioners switched to the idea that knowing and knowledgeability are better thought of as cultural practices that are exhibited by practitioners belonging to various communities which, following Lave and Wenger's early work, are often termed Communities of practice.
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  126. Roth and Lee claim that this led to forms of praxis (learning and teaching designs implemented in the classroom, and influenced by these ideas) in which students were encouraged to share their ways of doing mathematics, history, science, etc. with each other. In otherords, that students take part in the construction of consensual domains, and "participate in the negotiation and institutionalisation of meaning". In effect, they are participating in learning communities. Roth and Lee go on to analyse the contradictions inherent in this as a theoretically informed practice in education.
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  127. John Rodgers Airport was renamed Honolulu Airport in 1947; the word "International" was added to the name in 1951.Due to its proximity to the center of the Pacific Ocean, it was historically a stop for many transpacific flights to and from North America. By 1950, it was the third-busiest airport in the United States in terms of aircraft operations, and its 13,097-foot (3,992 m) runway was declared the longest in the world in 1953.In 1959, Qantas began the first jet service to Honolulu as a stop on its flights between Australia and California.Aeronautical engineer and airline consultant, Frank Der Yuen, advised in the design of the original building and founded its aerospace museum.
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  128. HNL opened in March 1927 as John Rodgers Airport, named after World War I naval officer John Rodgers.It was funded by the territorial legislature and the Chamber of Commerce, and was the first full airport in Hawaii: aircraft had previously been limited to small landing strips, fields or seaplane docks. From 1939 to 1943, the adjacent Keehi Lagoon was dredged for use by seaplanes, and the dredged soil was moved to HNL to provide more space for conventional airplanes.The U.S. military grounded all civilian aircraft and took over all civilian airports after the attack on Pearl Harbor, and Rodgers Field was designated Naval Air Station Honolulu.
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  129. An intranet can be understood as a private analog of the Internet, or as a private extension of the Internet confined to an organization. The first intranet websites and home pages began to appear in organizations in 1996-1997. Although not officially noted, the term intranet first became common-place among early adopters, such as universities and technology corporations, in 1992.Intranets have also contrasted with extranets. While intranets are generally restricted to employees of the organization, extranets may also be accessed by customers, suppliers, or other approved parties.[1] Extranets extend a private network onto the Internet with special provisions for authentication, authorization and accounting (AAA protocol).
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  130. In many organizations, intranets are protected from unauthorized external access by means of a network gateway and firewall. For smaller companies, intranets may be created simply by using private IP ranges, such as 192.168.*.*. In these cases, the intranet can only be directly accessed from a computer in the local network; however, companies may provide access to off-site employees by using a virtual private network. Other security measures may be used, such as user authentication and encryption.teeth whitening kits
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  131. Workforce productivity: Intranets can help users to locate and view information faster and use applications relevant to their roles and responsibilities. With the help of a web browser interface, users can access data held in any database the organization wants to make available, anytime and — subject to security provisions — from anywhere within the company workstations, increasing employees' ability to perform their jobs faster, more accurately, and with confidence that they have the right information. It also helps to improve the services provided to the users.teeth whitening kits
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  132. Web publishing allows cumbersome corporate knowledge to be maintained and easily accessed throughout the company using hypermedia and Web technologies. Examples include: employee manuals, benefits documents, company policies, business standards, news feeds, and even training, can be accessed using common Internet standards (Acrobat files, Flash files, CGI applications). Because each business unit can update the online copy of a document, the most recent version is usually available to employees using the intranet.enterprise document management software
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  133. Cost-effective: Users can view information and data via web-browser rather than maintaining physical documents such as procedure manuals, internal phone list and requisition forms. This can potentially save the business money on printing, duplicating documents, and the environment as well as document maintenance overhead. For example, People soft "derived significant cost savings by shifting HR processes to the intranet".[3] McGovern goes on to say the manual cost of enrolling in benefits was found to be USD109.48 per enrollment. "Shifting this process to the intranet reduced the cost per enrollment to $21.79; a saving of 80 percent". Another company that saved money on expense reports was Cisco. "In 1996, Cisco processed 54,000 reports and the amount of dollars processed was USD19 million".enterprise document management software
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  134. A website with dynamic code refers to its construction or how it is built, and more specifically refers to the code used to create a single web page. A dynamic web page is generated on the fly by piecing together certain blocks of code, procedures or routines. A dynamically-generated web page would recall various bits of information from a database and put them together in a pre-defined format to present the reader with a coherent page. It interacts with users in a variety of ways including by reading cookies recognizing users' previous history, session variables, server side variables etc., or by using direct interaction (form elements, mouse overs, etc.). A site can display the current state of a dialogue between users, monitor a changing situation, or provide information in some way personalized to the requirements of the individual user.industrial wind power
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  135. There is a wide range of software systems, such as ANSI C servlets, JavaServer Pages (JSP), the PHP, Perl, Python, and Ruby programming languages, ASP.NET, Active Server Pages (ASP), YUMA and ColdFusion (CFML) that are available to generate dynamic web systems and dynamic sites. Sites may also include content that is retrieved from one or more databases or by using XML-based technologies such as RSS.Static content may also be dynamically generated either periodically, or if certain conditions for regeneration occur (cached) in order to avoid the performance loss of initiating the dynamic engine on a per-user or per-connection basis.
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  136. There is a wide range of software systems, such as ANSI C servlets, JavaServer Pages (JSP), the PHP, Perl, Python, and Ruby programming languages, ASP.NET, Active Server Pages (ASP), YUMA and ColdFusion (CFML) that are available to generate dynamic web systems and dynamic sites. Sites may also include content that is retrieved from one or more databases or by using XML-based technologies such as RSS.Static content may also be dynamically generated either periodically, or if certain conditions for regeneration occur (cached) in order to avoid the performance loss of initiating the dynamic engine on a per-user or per-connection basis.
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  137. A common goal among experienced web developers is to develop and deploy applications that are flexible and easily maintainable. An important consideration in reaching this goal is the separation of business logic from presentation logic.[1] Developers use web template systems (with varying degrees of success) to maintain this separation.accounts receivable factoring

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  138. A common goal among experienced web developers is to develop and deploy applications that are flexible and easily maintainable. An important consideration in reaching this goal is the separation of business logic from presentation logic.[1] Developers use web template systems (with varying degrees of success) to maintain this separation.accounts receivable factoring

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  141. Natural selection acts on the phenotype, or the observable characteristics of an organism, but the genetic (heritable) basis of any phenotype that gives a reproductive advantage will become more common in a population (see allele frequency). Over time, this process can result in adaptations that specialize populations for particular ecological niches and may eventually result in the emergence of new species. In other words, natural selection is an important process (though not the only process) by which evolution takes place within a population of organisms. As opposed to artificial selection, in which humans favor specific traits, in natural selection the environment acts as a sieve through which only certain variations can pass.handmade leather jackets
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  142. Natural selection is one of the cornerstones of modern biology. The term was introduced by Darwin in his influential 1859 book On the Origin of Species,[1] in which natural selection was described as analogous to artificial selection, a process by which animals and plants with traits considered desirable by human breeders are systematically favored for reproduction. The concept of natural selection was originally developed in the absence of a valid theory of heredity; at the time of Darwin's writing, nothing was known of modern genetics. The union of traditional Darwinian evolution with subsequent discoveries in classical and molecular genetics is termed the modern evolutionary synthesis. Natural selection remains the primary explanation for adaptive evolution.handmade leather jackets
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  143. If the traits that give these individuals a reproductive advantage are also heritable, that is, passed from parent to child, then there will be a slightly higher proportion of fast rabbits or efficient algae in the next generation. This is known as differential reproduction. Even if the reproductive advantage is very slight, over many generations any heritable advantage will become dominant in the population. In this way the natural environment of an organism "selects" for traits that confer a reproductive advantage, causing gradual changes or evolution of life. This effect was first described and named by Charles Darwin.
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  144. For example, the peppered moth exists in both light and dark colors in the United Kingdom, but during the industrial revolution many of the trees on which the moths rested became blackened by soot, giving the dark-colored moths an advantage in hiding from predators. This gave dark-colored moths a better chance of surviving to produce dark-colored offspring, and in just fifty years from the first dark moth being caught, nearly all of the moths in industrial Manchester were dark. The balance was reversed by the effect of the Clean Air Act 1956, and the dark moths became rare again, demonstrating the influence of natural selection on peppered moth evolution.
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  145. The term natural selection has slightly different definitions in different contexts. It is most often defined to operate on heritable traits, because these are the traits that directly participate in evolution. However, natural selection is "blind" in the sense that changes in phenotype (physical and behavioral characteristics) can give a reproductive advantage regardless of whether or not the trait is heritable (non heritable traits can be the result of environmental factors or the life experience of the organism).
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  148. he term natural selection has slightly different definitions in different contexts. It is most often defined to operate on heritable traits, because these are the traits that directly participate in evolution. However, natural selection is "blind" in the sen
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  150. IP addresses are binary numbers, but they are usually stored in text files and displayed in human-readable notations, such as 172.16.254.1 (for IPv4), and 2001:db8:0:1234:0:567:8:1 (for IPv6).The Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) manages the IP address space allocations globally and delegates five regional Internet registries (RIRs) to allocate IP address blocks to local Internet registries (Internet service providers) and other entities.
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  151. The designers of the Internet Protocol defined an IP address as a 32-bit number[1] and this system, known as Internet Protocol Version 4 (IPv4), is still in use today. However, due to the enormous growth of the Internet and the predicted depletion of available addresses, a new addressing system (IPv6), using 128 bits for the address, was developed in 1995,[3] standardized as RFC 2460 in 1998,[4] and is being deployed worldwide since the mid-2000s.
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  155. IP addresses are binary numbers, but they are usually stored in text files and displayed in human-readable notations, such as 172.16.254.1 (for IPv4), and 2001:db8:0:1234:0:567:8:1 (for IPv6).The Internet Assigned Numbers Authority (IANA) manages the IP address space allocations globally and delegates five regional Internet registries (RIRs) to allocate IP address blocks to local Internet registries (Internet service providers) and other entities.
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