Wednesday, May 18, 2011

It's Finally Over. Now What?

I'm about to tell you "now, what" but first some background.

Yes, this forced "correction" is now over. There will still be dips and bumps but I'm extremely confident in the area around 33 and that there is no way the people predicting $28 silver are going to be correct. That said, silver is not going straight back up nor is it going back to $49 anytime soon so be patient. Gold has found its bottom as well and will not be seeing 1460 again for a while. Here are your updated hourly charts showing our current position. Taken in context with copper at 410, crude back near $100, the absolutely screaming grains and the shrugging off of the FOMC minutes, we can conclude that Turd's Bottom #2 is in and it's time to make some money on the long side again.

OK, now bear with me. I've got to somehow bring all of this together for you in the written format. It would be much easier in person or on the phone, as I explained it to Mr. Hyde earlier.

First of all, you need to go back and reacquaint yourself with this part of the note I gave you back on Sunday. Read this very carefully and thoroughly as it is tremendously important that you understand it:

(Begin)
"Finally, this morning, I want to spend some significant time discussing silver and where it may head from here. First of all, for the short term, here's another look at the two-hour chart. We'll know very soon whether a bottom has formed or whether silver is headed to new lows for this correction.

Here's the thing, recent history would strongly suggest that silver will not head lower and that support around 33-34 will hold. Why do I say this? Well, I think you all know by now that much of my prognosticative ability is due to pattern recognition and, for the immediate future in silver, here is the pattern of which you need to be aware.
Keep in mind that the Comex continues to run extremely low on physical silver. Of this, there is no doubt. The latest data showed only 32MM ounces on hand. That's only enough silver to physically settle about 6000 contracts.
The last three "delivery" months for Comex silver were Dec10, Mar11 and May11. On the chart above, note the consistent pattern in the weeks leading up to "first notice day" of those contracts. (Again, first notice day is put-up-or-shut-up day. It's the day by which you must supply 100% margin in your account to signal your intention to actually take delivery on your contract.) Corrections came and lows were made in the early to middle weeks of the months preceding first notice day. Specifically, a corrective low was made on10/22/10 before a rally toward the first notice day of the Dec10 contract, 11/29/10. Next, silver bottomed on 1/25/11 before rallying toward the first notice day of the Mar11, 2/28/11. Finally, silver rallied from3/17/11 clear through first notice day for the May11 on 4/29/11.
This cycle has indicated to me for weeks that silver would peak sometime between 4/29 and 5/6 and then "correct" between 5/9 and 5/23. Also, if you look closely at the chart, notice that the pattern had been for silver to rally for about a week past first notice day. This is why I kept looking for one more run toward 50 and even 52 back during the first week of May. As you know, that didn't happen. Instead, the correction began in earnest on Monday, the 2nd, and has continued to this moment. Because the rally from 3/17 was steeper than the previous two (42% vs 26%), it follows that the "correction" has been more steep, too.

Now, here's where it begins to get even more interesting. To me, the "proper" percentage gain for a rally into first notice day is 26.23%. This is coincidentally(?) the exact gain made from 10/22/10 to the margin hike highs of 11/9/10 and the gain from 1/25/11 to 2/28/11. If we can now all agree that the price action of late April was a blow off top, where The Cartel stood aside and let silver roll all the way to $50, then we can assume that silver should have rallied only to about $43.25. Had it stopped there like it should have, we'd be left with a chart that looked like this:
Ultimately, this post is concerned with what we can expect for the next six weeks as we head toward first notice day for the July11 contract, so here's what I anticipate:
1) Silver continues to base this week between $33 and $35.
2) By Friday but no later than next Wednesday, silver will be chugging higher.
3) Applying a 26.23% gain to a low of $33 or $34 gives us a price target of $42-43 by 6/30/11, the first notice day of the July11 contract.


For those keeping score at home, two weeks ago I was expecting silver to only correct to about 45, not 35. I then expected a 40+% rally toward $65, not a 26% rally to $43. The severity of this correction has forced me to alter these forecasts but the pattern remains.

Therefore, I will look to be a buyer this week if/when silver retreats again to the area between 33 and 34. I will probably be buying July $40 calls. (I did.) I may even sell some 43s or 45s against them to create a spread. (I haven't yet.)
I'll let you know.
The main thing and the point of this exercise is to illustrate for you that the savage beating silver has taken over the past two weeks was brutal but not unexpected. Pattern and timing now strongly suggest that silver will once again swing higher very soon. Be patient but have faith. Opportunity again awaits just over the horizon."

(End)

But all of this shouldn't be news to anyone who has been reading this blog for the past month. I've been discussing this "pattern" since mid-April. The swings have been more wild than anticipated but nothing that has happened has been outside of the pattern.

Here's what I want you to think about. If you're like me, you've often wondered how the metals would trade without the daily interference and capping of The Cartel. I believe now, in hindsight, that we finally saw this transpire in the period of April 15-25. In those seven trading days, silver went up almost 20%, rallying from the area around 42 to nearly 50. The unprecedented plan was already in place to ruthlessly raise margins 5 times in 9 days so The Cartel and their monkeys "stood down" and allowed the chart to be painted with a blowoff, parabolic top that coincidentally peaked right at the old, all-time highs. The brutal, margin-inspired smashdown that followed has trimmed open interest by a third and has resulted in many speculators leaving the silver markets, most of them for good.

Under this working assumption and with the creative use of some white-out, we're left with a daily chart of the July silver that looks like this:

And here is where the entire pattern now comes together and we can wrap things up in a neat little package.

1) Silver should have made it no farther than 42 or 43 back in April. It was allowed to trade to near 50.

2) The anticipated correction between 5/6 and 5/20 should have only been 10-12% but since the top was overbought all the way to resistance at 50, the bottom has been oversold all the way to support at 33.

3) Following pattern, silver has bottomed this week and will now trade to 36.50, then on to 39.50 and finally back up to a "double top" near 42 or 43 sometime before the July silver "first notice day" of June 30.

4) Gold, having also been "let go" to overextend to 1577 has now corrected and consolidated above 1480. It will also rally well into June before finally peaking somewhere between 1560 and 1580. (Sorry, no 1600 by 6/10/10 but considering we've already come within $23, I'd say that's close enough.)

5) Having accomplished all of this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums. Silver will have painted a double top on our "white out" chart. Gold will have a near perfect double top on its actual chart. The PMs will selloff through July and into August, just like they did in July and August of 2010 and then January and into February of this year. Gold will likely retrace all the way to $1450 or so. Silver will trade back down to this 33-35 area.

6) By this point in late summer, all will seem lost. Every two-bit technician and topcaller will be proclaiming the end of "The Great PM Rally", just like they did back in late January. But it won't be the end, it will be the start of a new beginning.

7) The metals will rally from late summer into December. Gold will trade to a peak near $1750. Silver will again trade near $50, this time for real.

So there you have it. That's how it's going to work. Call me crazy but do you really have reason to doubt me? My advice to you is to bookmark this page or maybe even print it for posterity. Forward it to your friends. You'll want to review it from time to time, particularly during the dog days of August when it will take a lot of courage and fortitude to step to the plate and go long.

Finally, I had a 90-minute conference call with my web developers yesterday. The new site is coming along beautifully and I am extremely excited to share it with you. It should be "live" sometime in early June and it will be a handy tool for us to cope with the summer doldrums and prepare for the autumn charge. As mentioned before, it will be free for all to use but only registered "members" will be allowed to comment on the blog notes or the forums. Registering will not be difficult, however, as you will be able to sign in through Facebook, Google and many other social media.

That's it for today. I will not be posting again until tomorrow morning as I want to leave this post up and "above the fold", for all to read and ponder, for as long as possible. Thank you for all your input and for making this blog the absolute best PM-focused site on the internet.

TF

578 comments:

  1. Eric#1 said...
    Chin

    I
    Am
    All
    In

    ??
    May 18, 2011 4:49 PM

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  2. Now THAT is a freaking roadmap. Turd, you are the king of silver but you are worth your weight in gold. Thank you. Now lets make some serious coin.

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  3. Chin

    You need to repost your post, otherwise I look like an idiot putting my guess in so fast.

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  4. From your lips to God's ear :)


    Thanks for all your hard work and keeping it simple !

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  5. Thanks, pining. That thing took about 2.5 hours to write.
    I'm glad you appreciate it.
    Now lets just hope I'm right ;)

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  6. Long live the king. Again, thank you Turd.

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  7. @ turd

    I only have one problem with your prognostication (aside from the fact that in these manipulated markets, it's hard to say how fast/far the EE will let the price of silver increase), the fact is that the world-wide economic situation is getting harrier and harrier all the time, so I doubt "the summer doldrums" will count for much in the coming years. Additionally, with Hong Kong open now, there will be intense activity year-round. We need to factor these realities into the equation: macro trends are speeding up and reaching a critical level, and political events are bound to get crazier and crazier.

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  8. Turd, you are made of awesome. Thank you for this.

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  9. Thank you Turd!
    I still owe you a photo of me wearing your big yellow hat! Will maybe take a snap this evening with a shot of my new stack of physical!

    Thanks again,
    H

    Word Ver: Ovenu - "over now"?

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  10. So your pattern coincides nearly perfectly with the end of QE2 and it will be pattern recognition, not the end of $75B/month in liquidity which causes everything to contract starting in July?

    I'm not disagreeingi with you but you certainly left out a key ingredient in any sell-off that may occur starting in July.

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  11. Great post Turd. Thanks for putting your time and effort into what will prove to be a valuable tool for many to navigate the shark infested PM waters.

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  12. Eric

    I don't know what you are talking about

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  13. The pattern always matches, until .......

    It doesn't.


    I expect some kind of default of or around the CRIMEX, possibly a default of JP Morgan. Unfortunately, you cannot predict such an event using pattern matching methods, so I don't know when to expect this.

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  14. Print button selected. Will save for those dreary late summer days ahead. But in the meantime, time to make some money!! Thanks TF!

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  15. Hello everybody ...

    haven't been around for awhile ... good to see you are all alive and well ...

    I have a new acronym "IAAI" ... let's see who can guess it ... here is what created it ... you're gonna love this ...

    just before close 3:56pm I noticed a penny stock that I wanted to buy (CRMXF) a 1000 shares of was at a 22 cents so I put in an order. I looked at the top of my screen expecting to see the open order there. It wasn't. I figured it must not have taken so I entered it again. Looked up and it wasn't there .... THOUGHT: maybe I should check my order status ... yep ... I own 2000 shares IAAI

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  16. Eric

    luv you man!!!! I couldn't help it. IAAI ... Your guess is good but incorrect.

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  17. Turd, you are amazing!
    Really appreciate your talence and hard work.

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  18. Turd, thank you for the amount of time and effort you put into that post and this blog in general. We in the great Turd nation appreciate your thoughts and rants everyday! :)

    JNG

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  19. TURD

    Great Stuff once again ... nobody does this for people like you ...

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  20. Chin
    How about

    I
    Am
    An
    Idiot
    ??

    Kind of goes for both of us now....

    ReplyDelete
  21. Brilliant! This post will be printed and laminated.

    Many thanks to Turd, the community!

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  22. So gov sucks downgrades the USDinker dollar. SEE http://wwwzerohedge.com.

    Who couldn't see the commodities smash and lift of the USDinker dollar as a pump primer for QEIII. Very hurried! Turds sacrificed dollar as of feb. '11 is just becoming a self evident truth. If you don't know the USDinker dollar is dead you will when QEIII is fact.

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  23. Eric

    ding ding ding !!!!!!! correct .... you'd think I'd know by now

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  24. Yes, MARAdona, the ending and re-initiation of QE may be the fundos behind the summer selloff and autumn rally.

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  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  26. Best PM "FOCUSED" site on the net.
    Great crowd of people here,
    Turd your selfless acts shown through the dark like the warm glow of a campfire on a long cold night...
    Thank you.

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  27. thanks Turd! It's good to have a gameplan for the next few months so i will be studying this and checking back over it. Fingers crossed that it all pans out and the EE dosen't interfere too much.

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  28. Great analysis. I would to add a few thoughts as well. I've noticed that silver peaks on the first notice day and near the last trading day of a delivery month. Between these days, it falls. So I would postulate the following roadmap:

    5/26 (Last Trading Day) Short Term Peak

    6/1-6/24 Massive Sell Off (End of QE2 Risk Off Trade)

    6/24-6/30 (First Notice) Short Term Peak and FOMC 6/22 Meeting where QE3 is hinted at

    6/30-7/22 Sell Off (Debt Ceiling Crisis Becomes Real)

    7/27 (Last Trading Day) Short Term Peak (July11 Contract). Depending on severity of the debt ceiling crisis this may not happen

    7/27-8/26 Sell Off (Crisis?). 8/9 FOMC meeting may halt selling.

    8/31 (First Notice) Short Term Peak

    Thoughts?

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  29. Hey everyone. Jan Roos here, been reading this blog for a while now and am finally ready to start trading. I am a complete newbie but have been accumulating quite a decent stash of Physical Silver from which I am just about breaking even now after the sell off.

    I have extra fiat and want to start trading now and my first trade is going to be a 40 July call and was wondering what you guys would buy in my case? SLV is what I am thinking.

    Thanks in Advance

    Jan

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  30. Turd, this is really excellent.

    I know we disagree on lots of details, and we've clashed on a couple of things in the past, but when it comes to the big picture, there really isn't a free web analyst that comes close to you.

    I'll be happy to register for your new site, provided I (and others) are still allowed to be 'off message' as and when I/we see things that way.

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  31. Turd that is some piece of work. Nicely done.

    Fair to say that we'll see the return of the monkeys and it's priced in? (that's what I got from it)

    Maradona - please read carefully it's small wonder you end up trolling the Turd. Metals go low in July because they always do.

    Please use a word search on this page for "doldrums" and then post what you find.

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  32. The out the algo's gone wild in AH trading!

    netdania is good, scale to 1 min then look and then go to the tick scale.

    HFT algo war is on.

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  33. TF-

    I like the way you think. Throughout this correction where Silver and the Miners have been obliterated while Gold has actually held its own I have been trying to determine which of these conflicting indicators would drive the momentum out the other side.

    I think the EE attacked Silver and the miners in the Silver delivery month of May, and allowed Gold a brief respite, so that they can save some ju-ju to attack Gold during the delivery month in June (just as we get closer to the "official" end of QE). When they hit Gold hard in June, they won't have to expend any capital energy hitting silver again because silver and the miners will just follow gold down out of sympathy.

    in short- I agree that this correction will play out as a season-long move, and we are starting to enter a brief spike move up (call it a Calvin if you must).

    I will be looking to book some short term profits on the new positions I entered around Silver33 as we head into first day notice for June, unless some new external fundamental market factor (like news that Mexico really IS going to monetize the silver libertad) comes in and trumps the technical forecast.

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  34. Turd, a million thanks to all your hard work. I know I speak for many more when I say we all appreciate it. When your help pays off, I'll be sure to Feed the Turd.

    Thanks again...

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  35. Re Algos

    Is that what that is? Holy forcing functions Batman!

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. should we still wait for a dip below 33.5 before riding it up ?

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  38. guys I wanted to warn you all about something.
    NIA is scamming some of you.
    They recently released a video called
    "college is a scam" and in the description for that video, they linked to their website, which prominently displays a link to a recommendation to buy stocks in http://finance.boston.com/boston/quote?Symbol=63%3A10556391

    They managed to get the price up to around 60 cents, then dumped it.

    Do not listen to these clowns they are just professional pumpers and dumpers.

    Thank you to mr.silvergoldsilver for discovering this.

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  39. Thanks a pant load Turd!
    I'm all over this #2 like...

    You know we love you man - BEST PM SITE EVER, and fun too !!!

    Thanks
    God Bless =]

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  40. Darth Smoker - I do a lot of lamination if that is what you are talking about.

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  41. Turd, great chartisting! I was surprised to read that you're gonna buy on an upcoming dip, I thought by now you were already buying into todays run.

    Today I felt a bit like missing the silver train. But ofcourse there's always another chance. Next dip to 34, maybe 33 I'm in. Or I might hook into some smaller correction.

    I expect the margin-fear to temper the incline and so maybe the sell target is a bit lower I figure, but there's enough time to think about an exit... uh... usually :-)

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  42. First Dominique-Strauss Kahn, now Hugo Salinas Price (campaigning to have silver as legal tender in Mexico) fearful something will happen to him next:

    http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/billionaire-hugo-salinas-price.html

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  43. I added to my light comex gold long position. I'll add more perhaps in the next day or so.

    Thanks Turd.

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  44. Vampire Squid Speaks on GDP and equity returns

    http://www2.goldmansachs.com/gsam/advisors/education/viewpoints_from_chairman/viewpoints-pdfs/linking_gdp_growth_and_equity_returns.pdf

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  45. Turd, you are a human being.

    In the movie, "Little Big Man" this was the highest compliment the tribal chief, "Grandfather," could bestow.
    You give freely for the betterment of your fellow man. I am awed.

    I think poster "silberblick" makes a good point and would love to hear your considered opinion on it. There are elements at play here which did not exist in former patterns.
    Thank you so much for everything.

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  46. We know that:

    *Bonds are artificially high
    * Bond yields are artificially low

    Why?

    The Fed is creating artificial demand thus driving prices up and yields down.

    POMO purchases ending will do what?

    Create a void on the buying side thus forcing rates up.

    This will cause what?

    It will probably cause the economy to come to a hault when interest rates rise? Right?

    What will the effect on the stock market be?

    I think its safe to say that the risk trade will be turned of and money will run back to the dollar as the safe haven? Bad for pm's.

    These are important questions what do you all think????

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  47. In steps Turd and throws an iron gauntlet on a glass table! I for one have purchased a little physical silver for trading and will use your guidelines above to reap a little profit and will of course feed the Turd :)

    Thanks for laying things out in a way that even an idiot like me can get it and for doing it for FREE!

    Take it easy man!

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  48. smarsack,

    Yeah, that's algo's. morgue trying to defend 35.

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  49. .·:*¨¨*:·.YOU.·:*¨¨*:·.ARE.·:*¨¨*:·.5.·:*¨¨*:·.STARS.·:*¨¨*:·.CIAO.·:*¨¨*:·.

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  50. and...
    <( '.' )>(> '.' )>THANKS<( '.'< )<( '.' )>

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  51. Turd... beautiful, beautiful road map that gives perspective on the bigger picture.

    You've officially moved from the "tactical" to the "strategic" and are now linking "battles" into "campaigns."

    The Army learned a looong time ago that troops operate better when they understand what it going on to their left, right, front and rear along with the "commander's intent" for the operation... you're moving into the world of "opertional art" and it will suit the new site well.

    Again, nicely done.

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  52. silberblick said...
    First Dominique-Strauss Kahn, now Hugo Salinas Price (campaigning to have silver as legal tender in Mexico) fearful something will happen to him next:
    ---------------------

    I wouldn't worry about Hugo ... if our govt did anything to him a couple million mexicans would pour over the border and rip up some stuff ... Strauss Kahn supporters have to cross an ocean

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  53. Turd's roadmap into the end of Q2 (30 June, 2011) also lines up very nicely with the 2006 silver pattern. Let's not forget: that two was a brutal, ~35% selloff which, like the current correction, took 3 weeks to complete. The main difference being that the 2011 shed most of its percentage in the first week. The 2006 correction took almost 4 weeks. But that said, the summer 2006 pattern fits very nicely with the pattern laid out by Turd today. I might add: imo, the pattern also lines up well with various macro stuff too.

    G

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  54. Thanks Turd!

    Quick question, where can I find the 2011 calendar for the metals? Last trading day, first notice day, etc.

    Thanks!

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  55. @Spencer

    I like posts like yours. It makes me think.

    Let me dig in and reason on these issues with you.

    You said:

    "We know that:

    *Bonds are artificially high
    * Bond yields are artificially low

    Why?

    The Fed is creating artificial demand thus driving prices up and yields down."

    To this, I agree. Pure and simple, manipulation.

    You said:

    "POMO purchases ending will do what?"

    I say this is a false premise.

    Here is why:

    I say that the Fed will NOT stop QE, whether stated as ending purchases, or not reinvesting principal, or some other geek-speak. They can't, simply that. If they end purchases of govt debt, who will buy it at artificially low rates? Who has money to buy it at those low rates is the better question. We know who: China and anyone with a trade surplus. But, why WOULD they buy our debt at artificially low rates? I just do not have an answer for this, and my small brain cannot come up with a workable answer. So, the only answer I can find, is that the Fed will still buy US govt debt, whether overtly or covertly. Hence, my disagreement with your premise.

    You say:

    "Create a void on the buying side thus forcing rates up."

    I agree, but they cannot allow this, else the US will default on the interest payments of the current debt, or the economy will collapse, which will then result in default on the current debt. So, rates CANNOT be allowed to go up yet. Rates will go up when TPTB have absconded with wealth and remain immune to extradition. Until then, no way. If somehow I am wrong, then my stacks of lead-core copper and delivery devices will come in handy.

    You said: "This will cause what?

    It will probably cause the economy to come to a hault when interest rates rise? Right?"

    Sort of. Again, it presumes that interest rates will rise.

    Let me ask it differently: Will Greece default on its debt before US raises interest rates? If you can correctly answer that, then you will have solved the problem. See, it is a trick question. Neither of the two can happen and still allow TPTB to remain in power for long.

    You said: "What will the effect on the stock market be?"

    The stock market is a rigged game. Play at your own risk. Gains are measured in fiat which declines in value. Are the gains in the market rising faster than the fiat is devaluing? Or is it a wash? Damn interesting question in my mind. Some math wizards can probably run an equation or two and definitively solve that question. For me, I just do not know. I do know that the two are definitely directly correlated.

    You said: "I think its safe to say that the risk trade will be turned of and money will run back to the dollar as the safe haven? Bad for pm's."

    I am sure that there are still many that will flock back to the (perceived) safety of the dollar. Sure, that is the historical pattern. However, that was also before China became a monster in the room. This time, there are different geopolitical underpinnings. Safety is relative. Ultimate safety is PM's, so because safety is relative, what happens when there is no more PM's for physical delivery, then what? The time horizon must also be considered. Initially, flight to the dollar makes sense, but only for the slow afoot. The smart money will have already taken possession of physical long before the real flight to safety by the masses takes place.

    I hope you liked my humble $0.02.

    Anyone else?

    word verify: gapit

    Like Silver spot just did when it jumped from $35.03 to $35.08.

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  56. "all me crazy but do you really have reason to doubt me?"

    Well the only reason I can think of is because you kept telling everyone here to keep buying when silver was trading in the mid and high 40s. Luckily some of us protected ourselves but God bless the newbies who followed you blindly and got crushed. Not criticizing you, just stating the blunt truth since you asked.

    Great post btw.

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  57. Helluva post. This blog, the man behind it, and those who contribute in a positive manner, is how an evolved society is supposed to function... service, combined with critical thinking skills, aimed at helping others.

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  58. tmfcarpediem said...
    Thanks Turd!

    Quick question, where can I find the 2011 calendar for the metals? Last trading day, first notice day, etc.
    -------------------------

    here is a link to copy and paste

    http://www.heritagewestfutures.com/downloads/futures-options-calendar.pdf

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  59. Great stuff Turd! I may even tape it over portions of Farrah's (RIP) poster.

    I'm with Lamare though. You never know when the Fed/Comex/BM will run out of bullets, so as a non-trader who enjoys the beach and margaritas during the summer I'll just stay all in.

    Would hate to stumble into the love shack one evening with a sunburned woody and find out the train already left the station. That would ruin a really nice day!

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  60. Thanks Turd. Another great post - and this time a more long term roadmap. I've been a long term gold bug, got most of my physical at 937, but this post made me consider stepping out of the paper gold during your forecasted summer dip.

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  61. @Spencer

    You're logic is correct but the Federal Reserve will not let bonds go down (or interest go up). They can not afford to let the economy go down the sink because they used so much ammo to kill the last down draft. They will not be able to save their friends, the bankers, this time. A souring economy would put increasing stress on real estate, MBS, and other toxic assets on the banks balance sheets.

    You can say good bye to the big banks if there is another recession. All asset classes would get decimated including gold and silver. However, the precious metals would sky rocket back fast because the Feds would have to print money like they've never printed before.

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  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  63. You've come a long way from your ZH days, Turd, and I am happy for your success. Now when are you going to start selling some of those fantastic foam hats?

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  64. Good analysis as always Turd!

    I do feel the need to throw a few things out that may be pertinent to the market as a whole though.
    GS down graded the US$, good for PM's
    Spain is in revolution – would be real good fro PM's, but my problem is... this is a NATO ally and an EU member, but I haven't seen the first mention on the news. Looking at the web-casts, this looks far worse than Egypt did. And the Greek riots have nothing on this!! http://vastminority.blogspot.com/2011/05/spanish-revolution-gains-momentum.html
    and on twitter at #spanishrevolution

    But since I also play the SPY / IWM when metals aren't moving, I constantly look at those charts too. I'm seeing some things that are indicative of a collapse. CCI and Distribution for the last week are going the wrong way. Today the market shot up on minimum volume. It wasn't until it was way past resistance that volume picked up, in other words, folks jumped in for a quick ride up and sold out at close. The big boys appear to be moving to the sidelines.

    I'm starting to think that once IPO issue week and OPEX plays out, this market could come down fast and fierce bringing commodities down with it. That would certainly assist the Crimex in their OI issue, it would speed up the debt debate and get QE3 going quickly. I am sure there are a few more underhanded motives in there, but those come to mind immediately.

    Proceed with caution!!!

    ReplyDelete
  65. PS ~ 2 sweet bottoming tails in a row now on the silver weekly chart ~ check www.jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  66. TF, I will like to say a very big thank you for your excellent analysis and selfless works for all of us.

    Yes, I agree 100% with your scenario trajectories, and if I may add,

    1. The current correction for silver is likely its 111 weeks cycle from Oct 2008, which is to be completed before May 2011.

    2. The coming correction in Jul/Aug is likely to be Gold 34 mths cycle, also from the Oct 2008. Silver will likely sychro with the Gold 34 mths cycle correction.

    Looking forward to your new site.

    Mr Tay BC
    Singapore

    ReplyDelete
  67. @mc2560 I mentioned that scam MONTHS ago

    ReplyDelete
  68. Dan

    that's a crock a shit ... we trade technicals and fundamentals ... who could call 5 margin hikes in 9 days ... did you? ... if so maybe you should open a blog ... I also do not remember Turd telling anyone to keep buying or what to buy ... if I'm wrong someone point it out

    ReplyDelete
  69. thank you Dear Turd...and many others on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  70. The only reason I think it would stray from this path is because of macro events that you/we are not foreseeing. I think we are at a tipping point and there may not be this "summer dulldrum" that you speak of, as the house of cards is begging to fall down.

    The Middle East will have war breakout, and the World is positioning themselves to give way to the dollar. I don't know if we drag by with "usual summer" in these days, but that is because I think we are ending the Federal Reserve as the Reserve Currency cycle. This cycle will trump technical analysis if they play out, which I guess is never a "guarenteed thing." Maybe it is because I am so young but I just don't see it playing out like that...

    The world has already chosen, they want gold and silver (physical) and they have had enough of the dollar. They are going to have to do some MAJOR work to keep things in fairytale land...

    Did anyone catch some talking points on bloomberg? Someone of importance was blabbering about how Core Inflation should not be looked at, instead only targeting headline inflation. Also, right after that a quick piece about how Bernanke left room for QE III by saying inflation was transitory, and that long-run inflation is still being maintained. If they changed that outlook they have room for more policy was the point...

    Will be interesting, it is pretty hard to predict how this is going to play out... no offense to you Turd but I am pretty sure it will not play out so according to plan. Not that your analysis isn't fantastic and logical, but we are living in an illogical and fake world.

    Will be interested to see how it all plays out, thank you for such ideas, they are surely much more thought out than my overall picture. Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  71. No mention of QE3? So according to this, I need to sell my Oct 55 asap I guess :/.. shizer

    ReplyDelete
  72. @Cal Lawyer, Spencer, anyone else with an interest.

    I've seen a number of charts with the S&P adjusted for Dollar devaluation. Essentially, you made NADA from the growth of the S&P over the last ummm what was, 10 or 20 years. Sure, notional value is larger, purchasing pwr is the same. Hey, at least you didn't lose money, right?

    Other issues btw gents, for you to toss in your pipes and smoke a bit....

    Chinese specs have been buying copper, then getting 10x loans on the value from the banks to speculate on real estate. Smart cookies, huh? We know how that game ends, don't we? My question: have they been doing the same with silver and gold?? This worries me a little. When/if the Chinese RE bubble pops, will all that metal flood back on to the market? Hmmm, best keep some disaster puts just in case.....

    Same thing for QEx ending. The Fed pulls it's support, stops POMO, even on the sly, and the market tanks. No wealth effect. Investors demand realistic rates of returns from the US Treasury. Yikes, Senatwhores and CONgresssluts freak out, and give the Banksters whatever they want, only save us, save us. In the meantime, paper prices for all assets suffer a FUKU-shima style melt down. Hmmm, best keep some disaster puts just in case.....

    Exported US inflation continues to destabilize the MENA and Eurozone (like they need help with that), possibly even China. Resultant wars, civil unrest etc. all leave people hungry for the safe haven of the tarnished but tranquil USD. Hmmm, put protection for this, but this may mean significant downside from Dollar strengthening. The Fed will print to maintain inflation, but it will be a wild ride in the PM's, yes? Volatility and trading is the original love-hate relationship.....

    And for a real black swan, how bout Ron Paul wins the republocratic nomination, AND GETS ELECTED!!!! Bullish for PM's in a way that can't be described, I think! Ahhhh, but I'm just dreaming.....'sides, they'd Kennedy his ass, right quick.

    Anyways, there's a couple of things that I think of, that maybe you haven't. Until they show up though, I'm a PM bull, but will ALWAYS keep my disaster puts live going forward.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Turd and all

    Turd is, by far, more knowledgeable than I, as most posters here are smarter than I also. I am a mere physical buyer of food, silver,gold, brass, lead etc and need to acquire much more of all the above. Kind of the old idea of sell (or buy) to the sleeping point.

    HOWEVER

    I have the nagging feeling that the whole monetary situation, both here and worldwide, could have a serious jolt at any time. MENA situation is just frosting on the the FED / PIIGS situation.

    I'm just saying that Turd's opinion seems like it is reading the regular market as we have come to know it(and love it?). Should there be no 'major jolt', my bet is Turd is damned close to bankable to market traders. I would just never bet on the downside from here on out.

    Turd is, by far, the most down to earth, honest, straightforward and accurate PM analysts I have ever read.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Turd: WOW

    This one's getting laminated Bro!

    Chin: I have a feeling HSP is more worried about Carlos Slim and his boyz. Carlos is designated as the EE's future Baron of Mexico.

    HSP is not without his own significant resources, and to hear him raise those concerns and mention fate is another stark reminder that things are at a desperate point. God only knows what HSP is aware of. I hope he protects this good man.

    Sprott and HSP should form an alliance. I'd fight under their battle standard banner against the teeming legions of depraved financial Orcs with every ounce of my being. I'd throw in with them in a heartbeat.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Excellent post, Turd. I really appreciate the amount of heart you put so tirelessly into this blog.

    Your prediction is in good company. I remember James Turk saying a week or so back on KWN that he thought this correction would be short-lived and that we'll see silver run back towards its highs in a matter of weeks. The $33/$34 area has held up extremely well, so I share your confidence that the correction is over (barring a sudden general market collapse).

    Whether we double-top near $42 or $43 as you suggest, or whether we run back to $50 as James Turk suggests, it's all good. I love trading silver - it has a nice wide trading range and a fair amount of volatility, which affords plenty of opportunities to make money both long and short.

    As annoying as they are in some ways, the persistent EE beatdowns just keep physical silver affordable for now to the masses by putting real money on sale. We all firmly believe that eventually we'll be vindicated. Knowing that makes it hard to completely hate Blythe and her minions right now. I'll buy at $33 and sell/short at $46 every month in perpetuity if they insist.

    Good luck to all. Enjoy the ride, and as long as we're range bound, don't be reluctant to ladder out profits at key junctures.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Thanks Turd, Your time and effort is truly appreciated and I'm sure it will come back to you ten-fold.

    I have a quick question that I'd love someone to answer...and sorry if it's already been addressed. Why has the spread for silver on kitco now changed? It's always .20 now as opposed to before when it was only .01?

    ReplyDelete
  77. Oh Chin Music, another new comer, so much to learn young man...and if this trade doesnt go his way, he will blame it on a conspiracy theory again and beginners like you will eat it up...one day my man, one day, perhaps if you stay patient enough you too will go through a few silver parabolic moves like the last one and you too will learn to protect yourself at peaks and not be forced to believe conspiracy theories. Little do you know "turd", as an experienced trader, probably protected himself in his personal account but bearish talk is terrible for traffic so he stays perma-bullish on this blog. One day my man, one day....

    ReplyDelete
  78. I could type multiple paragraphs but I will just post a sincere 'Thank you'.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Mr Dan, if you cannot be a +1, best is to be a zero, but don't try to be a -1, can ?

    ReplyDelete
  80. ewc58

    good points my man ... hadn't given thought to Slim and the boyz ... let us hope God is watching over Hugo for sure ...

    ReplyDelete
  81. Dan,

    Troll or not, you sir are most unwelcome here.

    Please go sell your wares somewhere the uninformed and dumb-ed down may buy them.

    I can assure you that place is not here.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Thanks very much Turd.
    You've outdone yourself.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Am I the only one reading this as very bearish?

    So 50 by January?

    Wont things continue to accelerate? The downward pressure on the dollar, the upward pressure on PM's. QEIII a certainty? I know we have the EE to deal with, but based on the projections, to me it implies that we will have status quo through the end of the year.

    Can the fed and money printing policy show no weakness from here to then?

    I know its good to set expectations low, I guess I was expecting more.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Brilliant analysis,Turd.

    But now I need to be clear on this forecast and another poster made some calculations based on last trading days etc, that are also interesting but lets be clear as to when the expected reversal ought to occur.

    Turd is saying June 30 will be the timing for the double top(on the whited out chart) in silver around 42-43.....and Gold ought to make a new high above the 'whited out' chart and make a true double top around the 1570 area. this being around June 30? do I have that right? but the other poster mentioned the last trading day for the next delivery month is May 26. Sorry if I'm unnecessarily confused and muddling things. But I'm seeing two different target dates heree....May 26 and June 30 to close out some positions before the summer doldrum phase. Can anybody clear up what I think Ive read? thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Dan

    sorry but you are the newcomer ... I have been posting here since January ... have been in PM's since 2005 ... born in the year 1952 ... sooooo you have not been correct on anything about me ... so quick to judge ... I suggest you scroll down to the bottom of any of these post pages and read the DISCLAIMER ... we are all big boys here and decide for ourselves what to do and not to do ...

    ReplyDelete
  86. Sorry all, just listening to some CNBC hack calling JPM, "the best run bank" and otherwise oozing their usual fawning obsequiousness and it just frosted my buns....

    ReplyDelete
  87. @scott, Ron Paul will NEVER get in. Here is your proof: It's RIGGED

    ReplyDelete
  88. Turd,

    I have not yet read all the comments before mine, but as redundant as it probably will be, let me add my sincere THANKS for all you do!

    I WILL print that post and be very grateful to have it to look at as we work our way through the next few weeks and months.

    Here's to the next 6 weeks!

    ReplyDelete
  89. Thanks Navy, I forgot to mention MY thanks for Turds most generous and excellent analysis.

    Sincerely TF, Thank You!

    ReplyDelete
  90. @ Economic Analyst

    Thanks, I was already aware of this to a certain extent. I wasn't expecting him to get in legitimately, I just use his name to spread an overall philosophical message.

    It is unfortunate indeed though, but this is all coming to an end. Thanks for a great source, I really appreciate it. Very very very valuable to me :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. @scottj88, it just goes to show you how deep and corrupt EVERYTHING is. From the commodity markets to voting to banks to taxes..the list is endless. We are the servants to the elite. EXCEPT everything comes to an end, at some time.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Chin- "Give 'em the heater, Rick!". Perfect reply. Nobody clicks that Place Order button but me, and whatever happens, its my deal win or lose. Dan, we have grownups on this site, and we know how the game is played.

    ReplyDelete
  93. My question is about the miners. How will the next six m0onths play out in that arena? I think many have been waiting for the long overdue upswing that has been anticipated. Does anyone have any insight they'd like to share?

    ReplyDelete
  94. EA,

    I made a few bucks on your Mountainview pick a while back. Just checked the stock and its down hard, presumably along with oil takedowns. Do you see an entry point in this anytime soon? I remember that it was a retirement stock... is that still in the cards? Honest questions. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Don't know if you all have seen this but the corporate interests are trying to get the Senate to pass a bill that would make it a FELONY for streaming copyrighted material. I haven't read the text of the bill but one can only imagine how this could be interpreted to lock up bloggers and maybe even those who view videos embedded in blogs?? We better nip this shit in the bud immediately.

    http://rt.com/usa/news/senate-illegal-internet-streaming-felony/

    ReplyDelete
  96. Turd,

    You spent 2.5 hrs writing that post? What the hell you are drinking (or smoking)? Just kidding bro. Keep up the good work!

    One question, is the new site going to be tested on cell phones? I like checking up on things during my lunch break.

    ReplyDelete
  97. This is my 2nd post & my first real post.

    Is there a primer somewhere with basic info like definition of a Turd buy #2. Turd's Bottom #2

    How does this work. Do we simply do our own buys at whatever price we decide ? or was there a buy signal price?

    how about where to get low cost real time bar charts graphs. where to open an account to trade mini gold and silver like 32 oz gold and small silvers.

    Can anyone say what is the typical cost of options. not sure I like options. I probably prefer straight commodity contracts. Should I trade in Hong Kong.

    I would plan my first trade for a couple of months. So not a big rush but I want to get comfortable first with graphs account etc.

    Thanks guys

    I have no problem taking full responsibility for all my own actions. I am not a robot. So dont worry about me. I will be OK with some luck.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Economic Analyst & Scottj88

    good reference to the video EA and you are correct EVERYTHING is corrupt. It is why we need PM's in hand FIRST (mine 80%) and any other can be used to trade IMHO.

    When Ron Paul ran in 2008 he really knew he wasn't going to win but it gave him a platform to get out the message. After his appearance in "America: Freedom to Fascism" Aaron Russo convinced him to run to get the message out. It has proven to be a great move as we have all seen Ron have a continuous platform to speak from. I look forward to hearing him continue delivering on what was started back in 2008 no matter what the outcome.

    ReplyDelete
  99. @Chin

    Freedom to Fascism - that was my wake up call. good stuff!

    ReplyDelete
  100. Thanks for the tradable advice. Your posts must take a lot of time to write and to upload, we all appreciate that. Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  101. Here is a GREAT vid showing HOW the TROLLS post:
    Monitoring discussions on BLOGS Disinformation and misinformation is their game.
    Re: MVW bought more near the $1.15 levels.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Pining for the Fjords said ...
    Nobody clicks that Place Order button but me, and whatever happens, its my deal win or lose.
    ------------------------

    and if you saw my earlier post at the beginning of this thread I do it twice just to make sure :)
    .... IAAI .... glad it was a 22 cent stock and not $40 .... it would have ripped into my margin account :D .... no worries though as I intend on holding those little one's for 5+ years ... my good friend Peter Degraaf, who taught me to read charts and such, went through the last PM bull market in the 60's - 70's keeps telling me that he would buy these penny miners and hang on to them. Many of them went from 40 cents to $400 ... good to have in my back pocket and yours if you so choose

    ReplyDelete
  103. Turd,

    Brilliant analysis and calls on silver/gold these last few days. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Sockeye,

    You can get a paper trading account with many brokers. I happen to like thinkorswim.com's platform and they have a pretty good educational section too. It's nice to have one account that can do stocks, stock options, futures, and Forex. They don't support futures options yet, which I think is the way to go and it is what Turd trades with.

    You can get real time data for free from:
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts

    Turd's glossary is here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

    You can limit your Google searches to the site by including this in your search box:
    site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com

    For example, to find the glossary I entered into Google the following, exactly:
    site:tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com glossary

    Standard disclaimer, nothing personal: this sport is a good way to lose all of your money, so if you don't have the time (or inclination) to do a lot of research on your own, you're not going to have the time (or inclination) it takes to do well. It's like a second job.

    If you don't have a preparedness plan or physical gold/silver, well, those
    are your first jobs.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Que the gif of the Rock clapping in the audience.

    Thanks Turd for your analysis on the PM's.
    This gives me time to study on Options and work on some OT at work so I could come up on some dry powder.

    ReplyDelete
  106. Spain is in revolution against the political class alright. May 22nd is the local and regional elections and people are calling not to vote, and the mainstream media is silencing the protests. Election authorities (i.e. Government) have tried to ban the protest but people attended anyway. It is still peaceful but it is expected severe welfare cuts will come. Given the number of foreclosures, the high unemployment and the fact that people are learning that JPMC and the international banksters own the country and have the politicians in payroll, it may be short before something serious happens.

    ReplyDelete
  107. This will continue to be a tough market to trade, since we have the sword of Greece, Ireland and Portugal (italy and spain anyone?) hanging over us every single day.

    If the ECB and IMF keep kicking the PIIGS can down the road, commodities and stocks will continue to climb.

    But one of these days, maybe tomorrow or maybe 3 years from now, Greece is going to default, and the Euro will get crushed, banks will get crushed, the dollar will skyrocket and stocks and commodities will collapse.

    GLTA!

    ReplyDelete
  108. Sockeye

    Turd's Bottom #2 is simply a follow up reference to Turd's Bottom which was a bottom call back in late January that worked out pretty well. Nothing else special about a definition or anything.

    Buy price? Read the Turd, read everything else you can find, use your own situation and your own experience and make up your own mind. I don't think there's a magic number in there.

    ReplyDelete
  109. John at 7:27pm,
    Just follow the dates Turd put in his post, being June 30

    ReplyDelete
  110. Just to clear up some confusion.

    Gold has a first notice day for the June contract on 5/30. That day will pass and gold will trade higher, in unison with silver, through the calendar month of June as we head toward the first notice day of the July silver contract.

    I hope that clears things up.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Turd said "Having accomplished all this by the end of June, the metals will enter their typical summer doldrums".

    I don't question Turd's view, but would point out that Rick Rule today mentioned a reason why the doldrums may not be severe - see King World News Blog.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Turd-
    THANK YOU...I know you are spending alot of time with this but there are thousands of us who truly appreciate and recognize your sacrifice! Many of us are newbies just beginning to learn....I hope you guys who are the learned remember that not all of us recognize the short abbreviations. Would love to see a TURD DICTIONARY and maybe some videos that you thought were great teaching elements. Thank you also for keeping it a free site and all of you for keeping it essentially a kind, helpful and considerate site....we all APPRECIATE IT AND APPLAUD YOU! I will feed the turd as soon as I make some but until then will click the links- THANKS AGAIN!

    ReplyDelete
  113. This just posted at zero


    CME Hikes Intraproduct Crude, RBOB Margins, Lowers Gold, Silver And Copper Interproduct Margins
    Tyler Durden's picture
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2011 18:54 -0400

    Copper
    Crude
    Precious Metals



    Following various outright margin hikes in commodities such as precious metals and crude, the CME is now moving on to swaps and other interproduct and intraproduct contract pairs. As of a few minutes ago, the CME just hiked the CL intraproduct spreads Tier 1 through 6 for both New and Initial Margins by about 33.3%, and assorted other CL pairings by a lower amount. It also did the same for a variety of RBOB contract intraproduct spreads by a comparable amount. Curiously, intercommodity spreads actually declined between gold, silver and copper pairings by anywhere from 10% and 20%. For now the market appears not to be reacting to this latest margin move by the CME.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Waffen: If this "prediction" is accurate, you will see silver move from $35 or so to $50 in about 100 days. That's a 40-50% move and it's not enough? Sheesh!

    ReplyDelete
  115. Thanks Turd, quality writings put across cogently. We're better prepared to profit from the cartel's shenanigans because of your sharings.
    Wonder if the continuation of QE2 as Jim Rickard has forecast (QE3 if u prefer) has already been announced to the those in the know - judging by today's S&P performance.

    ReplyDelete
  116. TF,
    This post is a valuable roadmap and has been printed at my house! It will have a place just inside my journal and I will re-read it nearly daily. Like others here have suggested I am concerned with unforeseen/unexpected events and how they will affect the 'roadmap' but ALL here should understand that all you can do is work within the parameters of how things have historically worked out and make your best guesses/predictions from that vantage point and of course combined with your excellent analytical skills. So... all that to say this: Thank You! ...Very valuable post for me to work from. It'll be interesting to see how we all do as the year draws to a close.

    Good to see you again, Chin Music! :]

    ReplyDelete
  117. terri: Read this
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html
    And watch this
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k

    ReplyDelete
  118. Tesla

    Aaron Russo was an American hero in my eyes ... we lost a great one he died ... another American hero in my eyes is a fellow named Norman Dodd ... if you liked AFtoF you will probably find Norman Dodd On Tax Exempt Foundations very interesting if you have not already seen it. It is 52 minutes long so be prepared for that.

    Are you a Nikola Tesla fan?

    ReplyDelete
  119. TF,

    I guess I misinterpreted your post. I thought you were claiming we would top out at 42 or so in July, then collapse back into 33 range and then climb up to Christmas 50.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Also ..need to add that for my own personal strategy I intend to spend the next 7 months (before the new year) accumulating just as many quality miners as humanly possible for me to do. I actually take a little comfort in the projected $33-$35 return for silver over the summer BECAUSE.....it allows guys and gals like me who are not ready for the top to blow off to prepare just a little more.

    Time.. I need more time...

    ReplyDelete
  121. David Rosenberg on QE, GDP, deflation, inflation, stagflation, __flation, etc.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M54zcfJMq7I

    The man cuts through the mania, hyperbole, madness, BS, fear, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  122. In fact, after re-watching that video (the 2nd in the series), I encourage EVERYONE to take 8 minutes to watch it right now.
    As you hear The Witch explain why low rates are so critical to maintaining the ponzi, ask yourself if there really is any chance that QE will ever end.
    Again, here's the link:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k

    ReplyDelete
  123. So... It looks like we could make some upside and downside estimates and make some decent profits range trading for awhile... with an upwardly biased range. Correct?

    ReplyDelete
  124. Waffen: Sorry we're confusing each other. That's exactly what I mean.
    I expect silver to peak in June, somewhere in the low 40s.
    It then corrects over the summer to the mid 30s.
    It then rallies into December and finally reaches 50 again.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Yes, J.
    IF it plays out somewhat as planned, we could make a ton of worthless fiat that we can convert into PM.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Must Listen:
    http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/05/18/call-leaked-biggest-names-in-silver/

    ReplyDelete
  127. TF

    Speaking of that, did you get your bars today? My gold arrived safe and sound and is resting comfortably.

    ReplyDelete
  128. At fedex in my town.
    Tomorrow, I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Turd,
    Do the traditional summer doldrums take precedence over any the Fed does or doesn't do?
    (A tough question, I know)

    ReplyDelete
  130. I meant to say "anything the Fed does or doesn't do?"

    ReplyDelete
  131. Love this blog! Talk about being in the right place at the right time. Thanks TF for sharing your experience and wisdom.

    Question: What's your take on the miners? Are you expecting miners to under perform again on this leg up?

    ReplyDelete
  132. Thank You Xaritas

    I made a copy of your reply and will work on all the url's. Thank you very much. This web site has so much info that a person could stay just at this web site all day.

    Thank You Turd. Best trading web site on the internet for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  133. yes, that's why I was saying it seemed bearish.

    Of course I have always felt that the Keynesian scheme would end this year or next, so my presumption is that the pressure on PM's will accelerate not decelerate.

    50 silver by xmas, seems to imply no silver shortage (I guess we all have to accept that whole notion is bogus)

    No QE3 acceleration. The more QE the more the pressure should accelerate, the more people become awake to the end game etc.

    sorry.. I am just being obtuse I guess. I believe you are being intentionally conservative which I can understand after the beating we have all taken.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Hmm...above $35.50 once more today....time to get excited?

    ReplyDelete
  135. Ginger

    thanks for the welcome back ... can't always be here as I have other things pressing ... Remember what Eric Sprott has been saying lately "silver will be THE investment for the next decade" ... is 10 years enough time for you ... if not your husband needs to take your trading account away :D

    ReplyDelete
  136. Looks like my post vanished. Trying again.

    First, thank you TF. You bring clarity to a foggy bottom.

    Long post, I apologize in advance.

    Some of my thoughts (and opinions) about comments above on QE# ending, interest rates, and so on...

    1. Interest rates are king - Fed is protecting the banks' trillions in derivative exposure tied to low interest rates. If rates go up, 2008 all over again but a lot worse. Can't let them go up, period. Pick your surprise on how they keep them low.

    2. If QE2 replacement is not announced VERY soon, the stock dump will occur sooner rather than later. Trillions don't move from one asset class to another in 1-2 weeks. Nobody wants to drop their free money profits b/c they dumped too fast and at the end. Musical chairs, folks, big investors eying the seats as they circle to the QE2 music.

    3. "Stock market is a rigged game" - funny, considering we mention the manipulation in the silver market 100 times a day.

    4. Historically, equities *almost* keep up with inflation. Hyperinflation, too, so long as the equity is of a company with intrinsic value outside the dying currency.

    5. Comex default - Please read this link:
    http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/05/jp-morgue-increases-physical-silver-in.html

    I don't know if it's true, maybe somebody can get Harvey Organ to check since he's the inventory expert. In any case, it suggests JPM moved silver from SLV to their new vault intending to use it to settle futures. Somebody smarter than me, please let us know if that's true.

    6. Demise of the dollar - do not underestimate TPTB's ability to keep the boat afloat far longer than you expect. They will create crisis in other currencies and countries to distract those that might attack or seize control. You think only the CIA conducts foreign covert ops? Or that they don't act to support the dollar?

    How long have most of us considered the fall imminent? Just like a market correction can go on longer than you have money, same is true for the dollar. Do not underestimate TPTB. Be ready, but flexible in the timing.

    7. Market Shocks - they will come, they will alter the numbers on Turd's forecast. Plan for that. If you are trading, know where you will get out before you get in. And do it! Just like the margin calls, the surprises will come. Have a save-your-butt strategy and think of it constantly.

    I ride a motorcycle. I am NEVER on a road where I don't know what my 1st/2nd/3rd options to escape are. If I fail to know and execute, I die. Almost the same thing here. Plan B - know it, mentally rehearse it, execute it.

    OK, enough. Thanks again, Turd.

    - Jim M.

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  137. It would be a real sign of strength (but not quite a "changing of the guard" just yet) if Asian traders could take gold back over 1,500 today. Day 2 of HKMEx gold futures trading.

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  138. Turdle GG

    maybe I don't understand your question but let me just say the summer doldrums are generally affected by big money taking the summer off. On vacation so to speak. You may already know this but I am not sure so I just threw it out there.

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  139. TF,
    How will the miners fare over the next few months? I think many of us have been waiting for them to take off, especially in light of how well many of them have performed in the recent reports.

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  140. Look another inverted HS with a measured move = prediction of $2.50+
    (ounce it breaks through 35.60) see it?

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  141. Thanks Jim M. Good points, especially re likelihood of USD death being a long time coming.

    Gold is knocking on the 1,500 door. Silver off to the races already.

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  142. Chin Music,
    My point was that big money doesn't always take the summer off, when something big is happening. I remember the summer of 2007 (start of the credit crisis) very very well, as the portfolio I was managing took an absolute beating.

    I would characterise the Fed's upcoming actions or inactions as being probably the biggest unknown and market-impacting event on the horizon, so I think it could have a strong enough impact to derail any traditional summer doldrums (and not just for the PMs)

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  143. LOL Chin Music,
    I am the driving force behind our silver, miners, & options accounts (scary I know) ...When I try to talk to him (husband) about it he gets a far-away look in his eyes (fear?...dread??) and then says 'wait.. I don't want to know'. :-} ....Ten years *should* be enough time ..for me to ease his doubts ......or to snag myself a divorce. :|

    :D :D

    As far as not being able to be here alot of the time. I completely understand. I am going to have to kick my business into high gear soon (been ignoring it too much) and make some more $ for the preps. I understand busy ......At least you check in from time to time.. I appreciate that! ;)

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  144. EA always like your perspective and glad you stuck around. This forum is the best hands down. I'm glad it seems the worst is over and we are still standing ready to fight.

    And I agree with Ginger about time. I would love to be setup for another pull back in the summer. Lets do this turdites. Im still a little light so will be looking to add sometime over next few days.

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  145. "....Ten years *should* be enough time ..for me to ease his doubts ......or to snag myself a divorce. :|"

    Just re-read that and thought it sounded like I WANTED to snag a divorce! :o ....Not so much! ...lol. ...Will be trying to 'prepare accordingly' and make the guy proud. ;)

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  146. Awful GDP numbers out of Japan but no worries market is up.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/japanese-economy-collapses-q1-gdp-drops-double-consensus-rate-epic-nominal-plunge-52#comment-1289815

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  147. Methinks this is the summer of Black Swans and not of doldrums, but what do I know... I've managed to stay in physical and out of paper and like so many here - thank the Turd. You are, as someone already put it here, a real "human being" and it doesn't get any better than that.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

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  148. averagejoe,

    Inflation is coming at last, and in a big way. I'm long EWJ.

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  149. Jim said ....
    2. If QE2 replacement is not announced VERY soon, the stock dump will occur sooner rather than later. Trillions don't move from one asset class to another in 1-2 weeks. Nobody wants to drop their free money profits b/c they dumped too fast and at the end. Musical chairs, folks, big investors eying the seats as they circle to the QE2 music.
    ------------------------------

    I can't agree with you more ... I have friends with 401K's and IRA's which I have advised to go to the sidelines NOW. My reasoning to them is right in line with your #2 statement. When QE3 is announced they can always go back in the market. If they get caught in the downdraft it will take a long time to recover and add to that inflation they will have lost money getting back to break even. I am going to copy your analysis and send it to them. Sound thinking Jim.

    As a matter of fact I was listening to Bloomberg TV today as they released the FED minutes from the last meeting. The commentators stated that the FED said there was no plan for a QE3 at this time. I know this doesn't mean they are not going to do it but what does an investor have to think when hearing that. He has to be thinking about an exit IMHO.

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  150. Jim,
    I loved your excellent post. To me, point #4 means commodities..miners, etc. ..

    4. Historically, equities *almost* keep up with inflation. Hyperinflation, too, so long as the equity is of a company with intrinsic value outside the dying currency.

    This is why I feel the need to have a buy & hold strategy with the miners. I just don't see them collapsing in a hyperinflation scenario. None of us can know with certainty and commodities and miners will certainly have pullbacks especially in the event of an overall market crash.. BUT...and this is a BIG BUT.... I believe that the coming collapse will cause many quality miners to explode price wise. It just makes no sense to say that gold and silver will hit astromomical all time highs ...but the companies that dig them out of the ground will collapse.

    Buy & Hold Quality Miners. I would rather trade my options account for my trading 'fix' ..and keep the miners sitting high and dry for that day when we will be glad to be IN.

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  151. In case any have not seen this before... Here is an interesting performance simulation for some of the popular leveraged ETF's, such as AGQ and ZSL:

    http://symmetricinfo.org/2011/05/proshares-ultrashort-silver-zsl-performance-simulator/

    Be sure to read the instructions how to click and drag to the time period that interests you.

    I am trying to assess the risk of shorting a little bit of ZSL on the dips in the silver price... versus going long something like AGQ. ZSL has bad ETF decay compared to AGQ, and shorting it puts the decay in your favor.

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  152. Thank you Turd! (still clickin)

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  153. Awesome post Sir Turd. A doughty piece.

    If you can't feed Vaal,...I mean Turd, visit his sponsors.

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  154. Has everyone reviewed this?
    Washington Post.....

    "Feds sting Amish farmer selling raw milk locally
    Cite interstate commerce violation......"

    My advice to all you Turdites is give back your SS#, change your legal name to 000000000001 00001 000000000l or something similar to screw with the computers that pry into your lives and track you. Instruct your friends to still use your birth name. And prepare for "real change". The destruction of America.

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  155. Ok, i see some crazy swings in the gold and silver charts. Is the HKMEX messing with the algos?

    Tread lightly, and look for crazy spikes.

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  156. Jimmy, yeah, spot silver acting like a hyperactive yo-yo here between 35.60 and 35.70

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  157. 35.61...well, well, someone's feeling frisky tonight.

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  158. Turdle GG, u've never seen anything like this. Is this cause of concern?

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  159. Not too concerned now that EUR/USD has spiked up

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  160. Seems like it's calmed down. What the hell was that? Low volume? Massive orders? i'm so confused.

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  161. I'm not even sure you're allowed to even give a neighbor a tomato from your garden anymore. If not, coming soon. Big Agri forever squeezing out the little guy. They'll spin it with "uninspected" or "something". At an increasing speed only the most gullible swallow such tripe.

    I guess an early thing to decide; is pateurization good or bad.

    I'm getting off topic here. Bad me.

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  162. Xaritas-- a huge thank to you for giving us newbies some places to get info...it definitely helps us who are learning when you guys (the learned) suggest places to go that really helped you. WE APPRECIATE IT!!

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  163. Jimmy,
    not so confusing. There's sellers at 35.70 and 1,499. Not sure how long they can defend those levels with EUR/USD breaking back up through 1.43 and POSX falling.

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  164. This is long and my apologies if it's already been posted. It is sobering and worth reading.

    Gold Aimed at $6,500/oz, Silver... $600/oz
    By Greg McCoach | Tuesday, May 17th, 2011
    Get ready. We are now entering the final stages in the collapse of the U.S. dollar...

    And it's not going to be pretty.
    The massive increases in money supplies will tank the value of the dollar and erode the very fabric of America's economic security.

    As a result, gold and silver prices are will no doubt skyrocket, despite the short-term major volatility we've recently seen.

    Many investors have been rushing to me asking if it's too late to buy precious metals with gold in the $1,500/oz range and recently spiking to nearly $50/oz. I keep telling them the same thing...

    Despite whatever the price of gold or silver is today, both metals will be worth more than twice as much within 12 months.

    That means $3,000 gold this time next year! After that, I think gold could break $6,500 an ounce.

    And as you know, silver's gains will be much greater. When the bull market is all said and done, there's no doubt we could be looking at silver prices exceeding $600 an ounce.

    And we can all thank the crooks in D.C. for it...

    In his first ever press conference after a policy meeting two weeks ago, Bernanke told us all the ways he has saved our economy.

    What a crock!

    The Federal Reserve can't prevent the coming financial meltdown.

    So far this year, the U.S. Treasury has raised $293 billion in net cash by selling debt securities. And so far this year, the Federal Reserve has purchased a net $330 billion of Treasury notes and bonds.

    This translates to the Fed providing 100% of the net new cash the Treasury has raised this year — plus another $37 billion needed to mop up even more mess!

    But who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t? China? Germany? Japan? You? Me?

    Going to Hell in a Hand Basket

    We are now getting very close and even accelerating toward the end game for the U.S. dollar and the American Empire as we know it. Have your life boats ready.

    It won't be much longer before people really start buying both gold and silver to protect themselves from this enviable collapse.

    The only way out of our dilemma, absent very large entitlement cuts, is to default in one (or a combination) of four ways:

    1.Outright via contractual abrogation (surely unthinkable)

    2.Surreptitiously via accelerating and unexpectedly higher inflation (likely, but not significant in its impact)

    3.Deceptively via a declining dollar (currently taking place in front of our very eyes)

    4.Stealthily via policy rates and Treasury yields far below historical levels (paying savers less on their money and hoping they won’t complain)

    I would bet on a combination of deception, betrayal, and trickery.

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  165. Con't...

    Following the Smart Money

    This past month, the University of Texas bought a billion dollars' worth of gold and is having it stored in a private depository. This is huge news.

    More and more, the intelligent group of our population is starting to figure things out. Unfortunately, however, the unsuspecting masses are being led perfectly by the well-oiled government/media propaganda machine like sheep to the slaughter.

    This is going to be a terrible reality for so many unfortunate Americans who have no idea as to what is coming shortly down the road.

    And you can rest assured the politicos in Washington will do what all politicians do when they are trapped in such a manner: lie, cheat, steal, spin the facts, cover their asses at all costs, abuse their power, and misinform on a massive scale.

    But even with the help of the government-controlled media, the time of consequences can no longer be held at bay.

    Free market forces will win; governments, banksters, and their power structures will come tumbling down just as we have been seeing elsewhere around the world these past six months.

    The spoils will go to those who were prepared and understood the debacle years before it hit.

    The precious metals and the junior mining shares will reward those who understood, and punish those who didn’t.

    Yes, the precious metals market will be extremely volatile in both directions at times, but buy the dips as gold and silver will keep heading to higher and higher ground.

    As long as the Fed and U.S. government follow the course of “Quantitative Easing” or anything like it, you can rest assured that gold and silver prices will soar!

    If you leave your money in U.S. banks in dollars, you will lose most of the purchasing power of your money.

    Use the downside volatility to buy any dips you see in the metals. Whether you bought gold at $600, $1,000, or $1,500 an ounce, it really won’t matter much when gold is trading at $6,500 an ounce or more.

    The same thing can be said for silver. Don’t worry so much whether you bought at $25 or $50; silver will be priced in the hundreds of dollars an ounce, possibly $600 or more as the silver to gold ratio descends to 15 to 1, and possibly even 10 to 1.

    In fact I believe silver stocks will actually be one of the biggest winners over the next 24 months.

    Time is of the essence.

    The lies of the Fed and the U.S. gov't are becoming bigger and more complex, their noses growing longer and longer as the fiat currency-economic-insanity comes to a head.

    Greg McCoach
    Analyst, Wealth Daily
    Investment Director, Mining Speculator and Insider Alert

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  166. Exactly, looks like an Alien EKG.

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  167. Just talking to my metals dealer, he says Canadian mint still taking orders but not giving delivery times. My silver order that was suppose to be shipped from the Mint last week, will now be shipped in two weeks from today!!!

    The Mint in my opinion has or is very close to run out of silver!! Again!!!!

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  168. Makes perfect sense, T-F-.

    Thanks much!

    P.S. -- you are much better than the guy I pay money to for gold and silver forecasts. If your forecast comes to pass in June, I promise to 'Feed the Turd' with some of my recovered winnings.

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  169. It looks like a Mexican Stand-Off. Which one blinks first?

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  170. Mr. TF, sir: I knew I had seen this movie before! I have been in PM's sonce 2001 and the way this has played out was a Deja Vu.

    On that ZSL ETF simulator I linked above, zoom in on the time period from March through June of 2004 and look at the parabolic runup and crash of that time period. It is playing out almost identically.

    Here is the link again:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html?showComment=1305770218370#c1463430342736343340

    Maybe there are some good clues in there.

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  171. I have a hypothetical question about hoarding physical gold and silver. Lets say someone has literally hundreds or thousands of pounds of pounds of physical silver and gold. If there was utter chaos in America and they wanted/needed to move over-sees and do so faily quickly and inconspicuously, how in the heck would they transport all of that weight safely and securly? Any ideas?

    My name stopped showing up when I sign in on AIM for some reason. But my name is Rich. Thanks

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  172. Rich, if they had that much they would also have a personal militia to guard them and it!

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  173. Rich, buy a boat. There are plenty off the coast of New England. The risk/reward ratio isn't for everybody though... :-)

    Ginger, excellent post. He really seems to get it.

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

    Word ver: aseabil. No kidding.

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  174. I think both the spring 2004 and spring 2006 corrections are good roadmaps as to how this might play out. I do think things have sped up since then and there is much more upside pressure, so recovery may be quicker.

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  175. Thanks Turdle, but $250K worth of silver bullion is about 7,100 ounces which is 446 pounds. So, that is kinda hard to transport on your regular delta airlines carry-on yet $250K is hardly a new worth of someone wealthy enough to hire body guards. I suppose the 1000+ pound scenario might be. -Rich

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  176. Ahoy Michael!!! And I can just picture gail force winds and a rogue wave or two sinking our ship with its treasure on board and 300 years later prirate ship hunters finding our bounty in the depths. Maybe they would name use the Black Beard or Long John Silver of 2012. haha

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  177. As a first time poster but a many decades long investor in precious metals, I certainly have enjoyed reading many of these postings.

    I have what is probably a basic questiion but I cannot come up with an answer on my own and am looking for assistance.

    I believe that most of us agree that the USD has many weaknesses. However, the euro and the yen and most other currencies could be said to be in even worse shape than the dollar.

    Since precious metals are denominated in USD's. could the dollar, at least in comparison to other currencies become the "best of a bad lot" and retain whatever strength it has and even become stronger? If so, would not that be a damper on any future rise in precious metals? Thanks for any assistance.

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  178. Rich-

    The answer is that someone who needed to transport a lot of bullion would have gold rather than silver.

    The other answer is that if you think you are going to have to bug out overseas it's best to start laying in your reserves in the bug out country of choice.

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  179. Can anyone recommend a source for junk silver...I just bought my first batch of physical last week, 40 oz of buffalo rounds @ $35 from, of all places Craigslist, but I really want junk, I've looked on Ebay, and yes there is plenty, but it seems pricey. I've been trading paper since last November in a ROTH IRA through ameritrade, and have made a nice profit. I've been lurking here for a few weeks, but consider myself a newbie in PM's...I have 10k in cash, that I'd love to invest in junk..any suggestions would be welcome. Thank You Turd, your blog is my new favorite, and your hard work is very much appreciated.

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  180. big sur-

    As some have said, the USD is "the strongest horse in the glue factory"....all of the major currencies are headed down, so ultimately the PMs will head up, but there will be some see-saw action as one or another currency is slightly less sucky for a while, so PMs as measured against that particular currency will not rise as fast as against others.

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  181. Little late to the party, great post Turd, I appreciate all your efforts.

    Lets make some money.

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  182. Honest John try APMEX or Tulving or Gainsvile

    http://www.tulving.com/

    https://www.apmex.com/Default.aspx?gclid=CPbDn_r215wCFR9N5QodV2X5Kw

    http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/

    Best wishes

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  183. Thank you Shill, I will check them out ;)

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  184. Guys,

    I don't want to add to the confusion but here is the CME 2011 Metals calender

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/files/2011_expiration_calendar_metals.pdf

    and it doesn't agree with anything anyone has posted...is it me?

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  185. oh, and really meaty post Turd, thanks.

    I also like the new policy of not responding to the troll du jour.

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  186. Jimmy...troll or OpEx dates?

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  187. @ Rich - If and when it comes to actual turmoil (as in civil war/martial law/Mad Max) level danger, it will already be too late to try to move around with 500+lbs of silver.

    Would they let you get on the plane at all, PMs or no PMs? Wouldn't there be capital controls in place if there WAS Transatlantic air travel?

    If you have a place to go to outside the US, export some of the stash there now, while you still can. Seeing as you intend to be leaving N. America should things 'go south' are you sure your destination of choice will be better off or safer to go to?

    Look into bullionvault and goldmoney (I forget which one is from Turk) for options on how to safely store and retrieve physical bullion worldwide.

    Finally, if/when you need to leave, the same weight in bullion is likely to be worth more than currently - question is, will purchasing power actually go up, or just the nominal value. If the latter, just convert to gold and move THAT.

    @J & smarsack - thanks for the clear and far-ranging thoughts, and especially counter-counter-mainstream and outside-of-box viewpoints. One thing to always keep in mind is that one main goal of TPTB is to squeeze as much out of the victim/host as possible without completely destroying its capacity to produce more wealth. Until unless one can a) think constantly like a sociopath, and b) have ALL of the relevant inside information, there will ALWAYS be surprises.

    @Honest John - tulving.com now has a 'sale' on junk silver in that he offers $500 face value coin bags at spot price + free shipping ($1000 bags are below spot). Perhaps team up with a friend/relative you trust and split a bag? Otherwise, check Craigslist (or post that you are willing to buy at x times face value, or at y% below spot).

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  188. big sur, the currencies are being manipulated relative to each other as well, so which ever is the "leper with the most fingers" (as Max Keiser is known to have said!) is the one which is usually most under attack at any given moment. And it's an art, not a science, which is why so much international and financial news seems to make apparently little sense. It does, of course, when analyzed from somewhat different perspectives.

    0da727ce(Rich) - now with your image in mind, I have to add a third word to my lexicon: recycle. (The previous two I've been using relative to the current economic times are "fibfillation" and "decoupling.")

    Ol' Michael
    "...paper is paper..."

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  189. CD...thank you...good deal!
    James Turk runs GoldMoney fyi

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  190. Honest John - I have had really good luck with Providentmetals.com on multiple orders of junk half dollars. They take credit cards for an extra fee. They have always shipped fast. Tulving.com is probably the cheapest, but does not take credit cards and has huge minimum orders. I have also used Gainesvillecoin with no complaints.

    Thanks Turd for all you do.

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  191. Turd,

    Really appreciate all the work you do man. Cannot be overstated.

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  192. Jimmy,

    CME pdf May 30 is blank and per TF

    "Gold has a first notice day for the June contract on 5/30."

    and I binned the Heritage pages I printed but they listed something else...

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