Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Drawing The Line

Well, here we are. After a week spent catching falling knives, you'll recall that I committed to time, date and price a few days ago. For a refresher, read this: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html and this: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/end-is-near.html

In attempting to call a bottom, I frankly couldn't ask for more. First up, the USDX is sick and dying and looks terrible. It is struggling mightily to maintain its footing above critical support at 78.50, the bottom end of a range that goes back to November. Recent positive correlation notwithstanding, if the PMs are to reverse course out of this current correction, they will find strength from further weakness in this index.
Next, look at crude and copper. Both rest upon rather critical short-term support. Rallies from these levels will also lead to increased vigor for the PMs.
OK, so the question of the day is: Are we seeing a bottoming process yet in the PMs, at or near the levels predicted of 1320 and 26.50-65? The answer is yes, so far. Take a look at this 15-minute silver chart. Note the first low came in at $26.54 and the almost immediate bounce. What I'd like to see now is a re-test of the low and then consolidation for a day or two between $26.50 and $27.30 or so. Then, a late week break back UP into the 27.60-28.00 even area.
As you might expect, a similar picture has emerged in gold. The low this morning was $1321.90, right above the critical 1320. Again, a sharp, nearly $10 rebound. Like silver, if we can get a re-test of that low and then consolidate and move higher, overall sentiment will begin to shift back to positive.
And, ultimately, sentiment is what we're talking about here. I ask you again, have any of the fundamentals changed since 1/3/11? Is the U.S. federal budget in balance? Is the U.S. economy roaring ahead or is it stuck in stagflation? Are 80% of all U.S. states on the verge of bankruptcy without federal intervention? Are the major, TBTF banks technically insolvent and only kept alive by accounting rule changes? Is the EU in a state of complete calamity, led by the insolvency of several member states? With significant, cost-push inflation now rearing its head in all parts of the globe, will unrest and disorder only get worse or better? Answer these questions and then ask yourself if it even matters whether or not I'm right about 1320 and 26.50. If those levels fail, (and they might. I'm not Nostrafuckingdamus) we'll simply fall back to 1280 and 25 and buy more there.

Lastly, I leave you with these three items. One old, two new. First, read the latest from Patrick Heller, a guy with his finger firmly on the pulse of the physical market:
http://news.coinupdate.com/gold-and-silver-prices-continue-falling-physical-inventories-dwindle-0639/
Then, reread these two missives from the Great John Embry. The first, http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/06_23_2010%20Gold's%20on%20the%20cusp%20of%20a%20parabolic%20move%20up.pdf was written near the bottom of the last major correction back in July of last year. This new one is so fresh, its dated this coming Friday. http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2011/MPLID_012811_pg003Emb.pdf

Keep the faith. We will win. More later. TF


12:15 UPDATE:
So far, so good regarding the consolidation above our levels.
Perhaps President O'bottom can cook up a little $ strength tonight. We'll have to wait to see what the teleprompter tells him to say but its already beginning to leak out:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/01/exclusive-president-obama-to-propose-budget-freeze-and-earmark-ban-tonight.html

64 comments:

  1. Technical analysis aside, I do not see how you could not own precious metals. The grandest question that needs to be asked right now, is just how many dollars can you print and still get away with it. I draw good belly laughs from both dips in the metals and deflation people like mish. I actually hope that I am proved wrong about the metals, as I fear the potential outcome.

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  2. On the previous post, CMT and I were having an interesting discussion about physical PM's and the question of "When do you have enough?" I'd still really appreciate others thoughts on the topic.

    Note to CMT: sounds like you and I are right in the same boat.

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  3. We are keeping the faith.

    Could anyone offer a better description of how the EE and their media mouthpieces are keeping citizens ignorant than John Milton in 1667?

    On th' other side up rose Belial,
    in act more graceful and humane.
    A fairer person lost not Heaven;
    he seemed For dignity composed, and high exploit.
    But all was false and hollow;
    though his tongue Dropped manna,
    and could make the worse appear The better reason, to perplex and dash Maturest counsels:
    for his thoughts were low-- To vice industrious, but to nobler deeds Timorous and slothful.
    Yet he pleased the ear,
    And with persuasive accent thus began:

    I am a buyer at 26.50 and again at 25, etc, etc.
    We will win.

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  4. Eric: Don't know if you're looking for my thought but here you go...Enough to me is when you've protected your wealth with gold and protected your ability to purchase everyday items with silver. Does that help?

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  5. I opt for half in metals and half in paper, if your conservative like me. I think that a gold money account is a decent option, as that is what I do. Not that I am affiliated in any way, I just don't like storing the metals myself.

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  6. LOOK at that volume in the miners...absolutely fantastic.....this thing "might" turn today....no confirmation yet.....but this is the best I've seen so far

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  7. i'm with ya kliguy.
    i can't even count the lumps on my head from the daily beatings on my miners this month.
    a turn upward would be sweet right about now.

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  8. @Eric You never have enough, at this point in time. Speaking of catching a falling knife, I view the U$D as a falling knife and until we get a stable currency, USD2,SDR, Gold....Amero...I don't care, you never have enough and want to keep converting fiat into metal.

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  9. Another way to look at it might be in relation to your income. My back of the envelope calculation tells me I have enough PM's (about 2 parts gold to 1 part silver) to replace our households take home pay for about 2 years.

    Is that way too much? Or am I horribly unprepared? Feels comfortable to me.

    Thoughts?

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  10. Being debt free sounds great too. Personally I decided metals first, debt reduction second. Is it a horrible mistake? We'll know soon enough.

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  11. alright, I just jumped in GDXJ @ 32.70, yay! It was just too tempting, if it falls some more, well fk it then :D

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  12. nice call, kliguy. The HUI is also at a very nice spot for a bottom. The big volume is a very good sign that we are seeing it.

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  13. Turd: I notice correlation sometimes reverses. For a while, it is negative USDX correlated with positive PM. And now it is negative USDX correlated with negative PM price. We also know there is usually a mean reversion phenomenon going on short term, so I expect USDX to reverse and increase, and pushing PM price up along with it.

    Now is a good entry point in my opinion, if correlation between USDX and PM reverses, then PM will go up with sinking USDX.

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  14. Counter: the positive usdx/Au correlation can only be temporary and is primarily due to the algo-based dumping of gold in euros. Soon (today?), human brains will re-assert control over the trade and the historical negative correlation will begin. The good news is the the negative correlation has "a lot of catching up to do".

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  15. I believe gold will find short term strength in the upcoming weakness of the euro -- not the dollar. Sinclair aluded to this recently, i.e. that gold has been moving inversely to the euro, which I believe it will do for the next several months.

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  16. Well, yeah Turd, of course I value your opinion. It's your blog. That's why we're here.

    But I also value all reasoned opinions on the subject, so I can throw them all into my hat and roll them around for a while.

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  17. Nice one lollercoaster! I too was filled on my last bit of SLW at 29.13. Yay!

    And like you said "if it falls some more, well fk it then :D"

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  18. LOL
    my last word verification was auggee. Gold, Goldcorp, and Evil Empire. Woot!

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  19. Wait at least for FOMC metting and Options Expiry tomorrow before buying. And Tuesday is generally a bad entry point, since massive amounts of shorts can be launched for the rest of the week due to COT report just reporting up to Tuesday.

    Turd, Harvey said that we may well see deviation of paper and metal, how do you prepare for that? Death Star options and futures are risky if you speculate on its implosion :)

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  20. Eric: That's fantastic!!! A sure sign of the bottom! :)

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  21. potential bottom will happen tomorrow. She always attacks on Wednesday.. and that wont change.

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  22. When does one have enough PM? Answer: BTFD, along with guns, ammo, and firearm safety training. Along with 401K, these so called "physicals" are 35% of my take home earnings.

    PM to ammo ratio is 1:10, every ounce of PM is backed with 10 rounds of .45, 9mm, or 5.56. So my PM physical is backed by another type of physical, not FRN. Buy only brass ammo and skip the steel cased stuff. Tried the steel case ammo and they just don't work as well. Brass cased ammo resell better at gun shows.

    Besides, JP Morgue cornering copper market is affecting brass prices, price will only go up. I remember you could buy 500 round 22 LR plinking pack at Wally World for about $8, now you have to pay $19. I think powder in ammo is partially derived from oil, so it's like an inflation hedge.

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  23. The Rise Has Begun
    -
    11:15 Central Time!!

    DXY through 78 should help us :)
    -
    Scott J

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  24. WTH? Todays CME Bulletin shows OI -81752 in gold and -5368 in silver!

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011015.pdf

    ...must be fake (I hope)

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  25. When your safe is so stuffed full of gold and silver that the door won't close, you have enough...to buy another safe!

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  26. I'll be very interested in the reaction of the USDX to the "budget freeze" comments in the state of the Union speech. It sounds like a move towards fiscal responsibility- until you consider that most Federal budgets have been jacked up a blistering 30-40% in the last two years, with debt issuance in the trillions. I think people will see through the folly of 1. going on a spending binge, 2. proclaiming that you will now freeze your spending at an exorbitantly high level, then 3. declaring this to be fiscally responsible. We'll see...

    @ Don- perfect!

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  27. This week is a Pyrrhic victory for the EE.
    They're readying themselves for options expiry.

    Be your own counterparty.

    In Turd parlance, BTFD!

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  28. Gold is suddenly $10 up off the low. Fingers crossed.

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  29. My take is this. PM's are a class of assets that you must own if you own real estate or USD dominated assets as a hedge.

    I will continue to add as I have today.

    I took a bite of FRG today and will add more off resistance. I plan on the next ten years not ten minutes. That's why I own PM.

    Thanks Mr T! click the adds people!

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  30. I am from Nepal and I have invested in silver and gold recently, i would like to invest in some PM's stock, can anyone help me how do I start?

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  31. @Eric: IMHO, that is a head-fake...I may be wrong but I will buy no sooner than tomorrow but may wait for Thurs/Fri. I am buying physical for delivery, so I will buy next week too if prices are still reasonable...

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  32. Sorry, guys, I currently have positions in AGQ and ZSL....which means the silver price will stay exactly where it is, until it drives us all nuts.... ;-)

    Seriously, I'm thinking of adding to the stack tonight after the 1:30 EE attack (didn't you get the memo?) and getting back into the miners at the end of the week.

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  33. The ladders are indicating a willing seller of size right above 1334. Clearly rallies are being sold/shorted into.

    I want to jump into my hottub time machine to Feb 1st to see if the plan to squeeze silver begins in earnest.

    I will buy HL all the way to zero at .50 incraments.

    Market action makes commentary. I just heard the commodity shill for CNBC talk about raising rates inflation, blah blah blah. Real interest rates are continuing to DECREASE. So how this makes gold a sell is beyond me.

    Oh well, gives me and my crew another opportunity to buy on the cheap.

    My crew consists of me, the misses and the bambino.

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  34. Himalayas:

    In my opinion you need to do a tremendous amount of learning and homework before you touch an individual mining stock. Stick with a fund. Mutual funds or ETF's like GDX or GDXJ. You'll get all the volatility that you can stand, plus eliminate single company risks. All kinds of things go wrong in mining. Cave ins, toxic spills, shutdowns, strikes, nationalizations, you name it. Plus just about the time you think you are going to hit it big, the company itself will do a huge offering and dilute the crap out of you. Trust me, most mining managements, especially the small Canadians, are far more interested in raising money for the next project, or the next management bonus, than they are in a rising stock price for suckers like you and me.

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  35. Himalayas: Start here.
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/little-hui-on-side.html
    Thanks for stopping by the blog.

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  36. Not a good chart reader, but looks like a bear flag to me! jd. GM is way, way overdue for a correction and this sector will be adversely affected, at least for a time. jd.

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  37. Thank you Eric

    Thank you Turd.. your blog rocks!!!

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  38. Silver may bottom out at $26.50. This is getting interesting though! The dollar is ready to fall off a cliff any day now yet Gold and Silver are the lowest since November.

    $SILVER - Weekly Candlesticks

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  39. So the Russian Central Banker announces an aggressive gold buying program in the AM on Monday, with Putin at his side no less.

    http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15884581&PageNum=0

    At around 4pm that same day, a "lone nut" terror bomber strikes at the airport, killing 35 people, and injuring many more.

    http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/24-01-2011/116641-explosion_at_domodedovo_airport-0/

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  40. EGO SSRI NOW GREEN on big volume still watching ANV and SLW

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  41. Just got stopped out of (really just covered) my GLD shorts at 130.25. Hopefully, a bottom is in. I thought I had a few more days.

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  42. @CMT:

    Shorting 'the precious'? Admitting it on this blog? No soup for you! ;)

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  43. PftF: Shorting GLD? You bet. I started shorting about 2 weeks ago as a hedge against my large positions in miners. put in day only stop orders for protection and kept moving them down every day. Did quite well, and now have more cash to buy things when a bottom seems near.

    I think that's now. I bought a few oom calls on GDXJ today. I'll continue to scale in slowly.

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  44. Stepped back in with a few orders today. Bids on the stinky side until we clear OpEx.

    http://www.trackmytrade.com/2011/01/gold.html

    GLTUrd!

    Over/out

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  45. If the CME open interest figures are to be believed, the change in gold open interest on Monday was astounding and would seem to be quite bullish.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section62_Metals_Futures_Products_2011015.pdf

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  46. Professor Turd,

    Haven't seen you comment too much about the Lady Wynter posts, which suggest that big hedge funds are getting together to buy a boat load of silver contracts for March1, STAND FOR DELIVERY, and try to bust COMEX.

    The whole list of messages is here:

    http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm

    Seems like a plausible idea to me.

    I really perked up with todays' post:

    "The following data is preliminary and might be adjusted greatly by tomorrow.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/S...

    The open interest (OI) on gold fell by 81,752 contracts. Basically if this data is accurate, then someone got flushed in gold. Most of the front month Feb contracts got sold as OI declined by 36,417. Of course this might be due to delivery next week and people decided to roll forward. However, this does not appear to be the case, because each and every month after Feb also saw a great number of OI reduced by a total of 45,000 contracts. Again, this data may not be accurate. We'll see by tomorrow.

    ....

    Also I am hearing that some of these hedge funds are selling gold so they can stand for delivery on silver in March. Look at the Comex data today and make your own conclusions."

    I guess we can wait and see what Harvey says about the validity of the data, but a drop of 80K contracts in the gold OI is astounding. And put that together with a plausible motive to SELL GOLD and BUY SILVER and STAND FOR DELIVERY -- well, to me that is potentially a game changer.

    What say you??

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  47. Not all miners have bottomed but ANV SSRI are definitely being accumulated now by the big boys..ANV has been bottoming for a week now....SLW may have another couple dollars to go....EGO GFI close....HL nearing 7.87...near term resistance...still holding cash for the hope they blow out next few days......but...nibbled on SLW SSRI EGO today....If you don't have a core..get one started here....and hope they cut it some more....

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  48. Pining:

    LOL big time on "No soup for you!"

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  49. Quick report from the front:

    Just stopped by my favorite coin shop. Still has almost nothing in gold. Just a couple of high premium numismatic pieces. Same story in silver. Said he got ten really nice Englehard 10 oz bars in this morning and they were gone in less than an hour. All he has left in silver now is, in his words, "crap". He counts on walk-ins selling him stuff for most of his inventory and lately he's just not getting squat.

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  50. Also entered EGO today at 15.60 and 15.65...in different accounts.. I have other positions, so this may be my "core"

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  51. New follower of The Turd on here, but found you from ZH (which I've been following for about a year now). Question 4 all who don't mind offering advice: I have several thousand in cash ready to go right now, (already own a 10oz bar of gold), but no silver at all yet. Was thinking of buying a bunch of silver from Gainesville Coins shop which is right up the road from me here in Tampa, FL. They sell Silver Buffaloes right now under 28 bucks each. 2010 Silver Eagles are 29.58, and 2011 Silver Eagles are 30.08. Should I scoop up as many as I can as we watch for silver to drop a little more over the next 1 or 2 days? Cash is cheapest with them and no sales tax on anything over 500 bucks. Is it better to get Eagles rather than the slightly cheaper Buffaloes? Thanks and love the blog!

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  52. I'd plunge the whole wad on the Buffaloes right now. Try to get too cute timing the next couple days and you might end up with nothing. You'll hate yourself and end up buying at higher prices later on.

    And I don't pay up for Eagles, but that's just me.

    Just my 2 cents...

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  53. Ian IMHO it is better to get the eagles. The buffalos are private mint rounds. If you are going to buy rounds then you get a better deal just buying a 100 ounce bar. Love those guys at Gainesville Coins. Been buying from them for years. FYI the US mint doesn't print Buffalo's any more.

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  54. Even if you love Eagles, and lots of people do, I wouldn't pay extra for the 2011 over the 2010.

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  55. Eric I own both so Ian it is really a persoanl preference. When I asked a local dealer in Orlando the round sold for 2.00 less than the eagles. I don't think you can go wrong either way.

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  56. Ian -
    I was going to post a simple reply asking why you'd pay more for the same amount of metal. But I just did a quick check and noticed that the *buy* price for silver eagles at my local coin shop is now $1 over spot. Anybody else seeing this?

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  57. That I definately agree with Eric. The year on the coin does not increase the value.

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  58. @Ian-

    Just my opinion, but I live 5 states away and I am going to place my next order from Gainsville Coin- great rep, good prices, you are fortunate to be able to walk-in. Do so, soon! As per the form, the eagles are more recongizable and hence would be more easily sold if the need arose, but I don't care much about form- silver is silver. I personally favor 10oz bars since they stack easily. Plus they look pretty in a stack. That's important.

    @ Eric- great update from the front, I find these types of reports quite valuable. I suspect that when we start to see the serious divergence between paper and physical, reports like this will be our first clue, and maybe we can be just a little quicker than the next guy. Kudos, and keep 'em coming.

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  59. I have a few Eagles too, but mostly from cases where I was able to get them at a more reasonable price. They are nice, but a lot of other stuff is very nice too.

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  60. Biosci--
    A buy premium for Eagles has not been my experience, but these are dynamic markets, things are changing fast and it wouldn't surprise me. It's all about what goes on at a particular shop. If the guy has regular customers who are having trouble getting enough Eagles, and willing to pay extra, then for sure he'll up his buy price to try to get some.

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  61. Wow, SSRI is my hero today. Too bad I don't own any.... :(

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  62. thanks for the great replies everyone...I asked the guy over the phone at GVille Coins about that last Friday. He told me straight up the Buffs were cheaper because they get them from a private mint, etc. I said "well silver is silver, right?", and he said yeah that's how he looks at it. I read the Eagles were more well internationally known like Maple Leaf, etc. in case you wanted to use it for trade or sale. But other than that I figured it wouldn't matter what they were as long as they're .999 fine and not some piece of junk.
    I sure wish I would have pulled the trigger last summer when it was still below 19!!! I'm a dumbass for being chicken shit on that one! Now I don't want to let this chance to BTFD get away!

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  63. Ian don't worry if the owner of this blog is right it's no regrets. I started buying silver at 14 and gold at 800 and thought I was late for the party too.

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