Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Getting Frustrated

This sucks and its pissing me off.

The dollar continues to slide lower. The grains are higher and, more importantly, copper is rolling and crude is back near $92 and about at the levels it was at on 1/3/11. Look at these two charts:
A rational person, dealing in non-manipulated/suppressed markets might expect gold and silver to be back near their 1/3/11 levels, too. Where are the PMs trading? Well, down of course!
I'm sitting out here on a limb because I called for 1400+ gold and 30+ silver today. Everything else is rallying yet our PMs are down! Thank you, Wicked Witch of New York.

Sorry...just had to vent.

61 comments:

  1. Twilight zone stuff.

    All correlations holding to form even for Platinum, but not for Gold and Silver.

    Curious.

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  2. Just means the move to the upside is being suppressed and will be that much more explosive once it does move.

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  3. Hang Tough Turd....

    Once the big move happens, it will be life changing. Enjoy yourself a bit more and wait 2 more hours until POMO with this strong Dollar Down...
    -
    Time will be your vindicator, you can't force these things :)
    -
    Scott J

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  4. And on news that India is just buying Gold regardless of the cost... Thanks ZH, for the article link:
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-12/gold-imports-by-india-likely-reached-record-wgc-says.html

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  5. bit surprised also, looked at finviz everything is bright green except the dollar and gold!?

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  6. I'm with Matt. I figure Blythe is using a tremendous amount of firepower just to keep PM's flat today. Based on nothing but hope I suppose, but it will be interesting to see what Harvey has to say tonight.

    Meanwhile I just picked up another Mexican 20 Peso (approx 1/2 oz Au) just for grins.

    Eric

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  7. this will be explained away on bloomberg as following:

    Precious Metals Down On Recovery Expectations, Grains, OIl Up

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  9. by the way don't feel too bad cotton is wetting its pants as well.

    max keiser, mr. crash jpmorgan himself admitted that the word on the street is we might have a correction in the PM markets now, perhaps that is what is weighing on them. marc faber was talking of general market correction in january. rogers is still onboard with silver. im not too worried. it can't just go straight up all the time.

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  10. Thanks, George.
    Bloomberg carrying the water for he EE again. Such nonsense.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. March $ closing in on our 80.40 target.

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  13. More $ info:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/buck-me-this-is-getting-old.html

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  14. I'm not worried, although it sure wears on you sometimes. With shortages popping up all over the place they fight over a 15 cent jump. I guess we just have to sit back and chill. I know I'm off to the coin shop this afternoon. Up yours BM.

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  15. I think silver and gold are down for technical reasons. Gold is below 50 day MA and has broken a H&S neckline. Silver is below 20 day MA and has broken its up channel from August... Sideways or down for the near term... Major support at ag $25... My $.02
    [CHART] http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/yrH8ev2iK_I_BdvHjjC3rQ?feat=directlink

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  16. Gold is selling off against every currency not just the dollar. You have to get away from this dollar-centric view, it's only part of the picture.

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  17. I agree, Pat, butits a big part of the picture as the dollar, for now, is the reserve fiat.

    At any rate, its improving...1382 and 29.60

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  18. yeah the head and shoulders on gold did give me pause to think. there was also a commentator, i forget which now, who said in january we would head back down to 1350, then if 1350 broke we would go down to 1250! he said that to wait for that to buy....at 1250....then it would march up to 1550 or whatever....

    im in for the long haul. i know i cant pick the short term well. luckily most of what we got ,we got for under $1000 so im not worried.

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  19. ah there you go. we've broken green again....it's springtime...

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  20. Franklin had it right last night:
    http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

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  21. I don't buy the "economic recovery" angle... If that were the case the dollar would be seeing continued strength.

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  22. I think we need to consider what's coming up and factor it into the equation:

    •Wed, 10-Yr Note Auction - got to make these look like a better bet than Gold, so take Gold down.

    •Thur, 30-Yr Bond Auction - got to make these look like a better bet than Gold, so take Gold down.

    •Thur, 1PM, Bernanke Speaks - got to make Bernanke and the dollar look good, so take Gold down.

    •Fri, 8:30AM, Consumer Price Index - got to keep inflation expectations in check, so take Gold down.

    That's four good reasons for the Gold Cartel to put a lid on gold between now and around 10:00AM Friday... Yes?

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  23. "Money" becomes more valuable during depression style slowdowns. During deflationary depressions such as in the 1930's cash was king, and all other asset classes got killed,including gold. Fiat cash is now closer to monopoly money. So, what becomes money? As you all know, it's gold & silver. Gold & silver are typically not the best inflationary hedges in the traditional sense. I anticipate that when the economy starts grinding to a halt at a faster pace is when you'll see gold/silver outpace the other commodities because all other asset classes will drop in comparison to gold/silver. That's the beauty of PM's; they are a hedge against both deflation & inflation.

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  24. George, its not a H&S. That implies that we have topped.
    Gold is simply rangebound between 1320-1420.

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  25. The way I see it, the dollar is falling with no resultant gold rise....just part of the "set-up". I'm still in the "one last big dump" camp. So the dollar is getting ready to coil and release up when time is perfect. No big deal, just be ready to buy....

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  26. One more Admirer for you Turd !!! from a very far off place... India !

    Wicked Witch of New York.......!

    I liked your vent and do understand whom you are referring to ;)

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  27. The ECB engineered a "successful" bond issue in Portugal today, so everybody figures it's all good in Europe, no problems with the euro, etc. Therefore unwind euro short, dollar long trades, plus nobody needs gold anymore because everything is fine everywhere. Pretty much explains the day.

    So just sit tight until the next news cycle where all of a sudden they think maybe everything is not fine.

    Eric

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  28. Turd: It ain't over till its over...let's see where they close on the Globex...PM's look like caged animals to me.

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  29. dryam hits an important point.

    Yes, we are into a cycle of declining affluence, purchasing power, whatever you want to call it. And yes, cash money will get steadily more valuable. You'll be able to buy more stuff with it. But where I differ with deflationists like Bob Prechter, The Automatic Earth, etc. is what you define as cash money. They are stuck with the idea that cash money means USD. I believe we are well along into the process where the USD is being inflated away to a fraction of it's former self in an attempt to maintain business as usual. Something else will become the equivalent of Cash Money. Got Gold? Got Silver?

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  30. USDX spot 80.06 and dropping with Silver range bound.

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  31. Stefanomo has a new chart up. His range is 1363-1418, the spring is tightening.

    http://goldmodel.blogspot.com/

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  32. Forget Gold and Silver,Oil at $150.00 a barrel,QE to infinity and despite the many major unsurmountable problems in the World,who cares because even on all the bad news the Stock Market moves higher.Fiat is unstoppable (until the bubble bursts ).Don,t worry it can,t last for ever G & S must move higher soon and when it happens it will be a violent jerk straight up.

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  33. Everytime I see an article arguing about inflation versus deflation I think to myself "wait, let's define "money" first, then let's talk". If "money" is an unbacked paper currency, then serious, persistent deflation is not a real possibility. If it were to happen, it would be a first in the history of the world.

    Eric

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  34. How many flying monkeys does it take to keep the lid on a Silver pressure cooker??

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  35. @Barb,

    Yes, the Chinese bought Portuguese bonds. The Chinese have got to get their inflation (that they are importing from USA) under control, so they dispose of some currency by buying junk bonds from Portugal. Conversely, Portugal needs people to buy their bonds because nobody else is.
    Check out the bond yield curves for Portugal:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/havenstein/Rosie%208.jpg

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  36. POMO will be 112 billion with 80 billion attributable to QE2...

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    I remain Free-Independent and Self-Directed. I don't want no stinkin' POMO.

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  37. Dollar down 1% at 80 and silver is flat. What a joke!

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  38. FISD - I'm with ya, but with "free cash" pumping into the market on 18 of the 19 trading days in the month, me thinks PM's are about to start the next leg higher.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-releases-new-pomo-schedule-monetize-112-billion-bonds-and-prop-stocks-18-out-19-trading-

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  39. Just think about what happens when they cut off the cash at some point. But I can't see that happening anytime soon, can anyone else?

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  40. I think there is a good chance to be surprised in the morning... feels to me like a steady uptrend coming

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  41. From Santa's Trader Dan this afternoon...

    "With the commodity complex ratcheting upward, it is going to pose a real challenge for the perma bears at the Comex to keep the precious metals from moving higher.

    Selling pressure in gold was tied somewhat to relief over the Portuguese bond sale which was not a total fiasco. That led to bond selling as the need for “safe havens” was somewhat diminished for the time being and brought relief buying back into the Euro. Normally one would expect the Dollar weakness to give gold a bit of a boost but this time around it was selling supposedly tied to the reduced need for gold as a safe haven.

    Given the tenuous condition of Portugal and Spain, and others in the Euro zone, those that are dismissing a need for gold as a safe haven are very premature."

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  42. Matt - I subscribe to the rule that what cannot continue forever won't continue forever. At some point QE will stop. Who knows what the circumstances surrounding it will be. Until then, let's all make some good money in the PM's, use it to prepare for the next phase of our country. As Chris Martenson says, "the next 20 years will be completely different than the last 20." Get prepared. That's my goal.

    Pining - I do plan to make money off the POMO stupidity. As the dollar declines with the devaluation through POMO, we'll see the miners and the metals appreciate nicely. Stay nimble.

    Turd - Thanks for the forum. I think you'll SOON be vindicated on your call for $30+ silver.

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  43. Sorry turd but I just added more PSLV today....developing a really nice core for the next pump....if they take silver down a couple more bucks then I'll add another few thou.....its a gift.....let um work for me here....If they do drag it down someone is going to cover and man o man.....gotta be loaded

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  44. @FISD - couldn't agree more. I am well positioned in the jr miners and recently picked up 500oz of physical silver.

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  45. Oh so they finally let silver rise AFTER the closing bell at 16:00. Bastards! And look at platinum take on $1800!

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  46. Hey Turd and crew, if you want to understand some (very general) part of what's happening inside the mind of man when he makes economic decisions, watch this:

    Not only does it explain a lot, it's also hilarious.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X68dm92HVI

    Some continuations I found were
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbfIWn_Rt1k
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUdsTizSxSI

    I found it after listening to the Chris Martenson stuff.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-martenson-and-dan-ariely-discuss-behavioral-economics-behind-desire-inflate

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  47. Hey Matt,
    People always talking about shortages, back orders, etc in physical silver I was wondering whether you had any problems or delays in getting that 500 oz that you mentioned.
    Eric

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  48. @barb/eric

    I ordered 20 silver eagles back on the 4th after the dip hit. anticipated ship date is the 24th of this month.

    and i only freaking ordered 20 oz.

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  49. I ordered 100 Maple Leafs on December 16. Delivered yesterday, as expected.

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  50. @Daniel,

    I watched the first lecture. Pretty interesting actually. I have known some of what he said - especially when it comes to hot-button political surveys; it's HOW the question is asked that can skew the results.

    Thanks for the link.

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  51. Thank you all for the absolutely fabulous and terrific discussion here this afternoon! This site is about and for you, not me, and you are all to be applauded and complimented.
    I working up a new post that details the new POMO and its implications. Look for it in about 30 minutes.

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  52. I own a checking cashing business and the amount of 401k checks showing up in the last two weeks is crazy. Money must be pouring out. There is nothing left to tap soon. I do not disagree with getting it out but you better be buying PM's.

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  53. @Barb/Eric - The first time I went to place the order with APMEX on Monday 1/3 I was able to place the order for 500 oz. After getting the bank wire and everything ready later in the day I was unable to get the 500 oz, could only get about 30 oz at that time. I was buying Canadian Silver Maples. I had to wait 2 days before they were available again. Price came down obviously in the interim so it worked out but yes I faced some unavailability.

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  54. Tlane....are the majority cashing out to survive...that would be my guess since you own a service....what is the average ammt

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  55. Yes...all are getting the money to just make ends meet. We have seen people taking an average of 2k to 3k over the last few years but the amounts are larger now. I think most are just cashing out of what is left. Good thing Ben is propping the market up.

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  56. i ordered some things at apmex in december....totally delayed. won't get any of it until february looks like. so yes...back ordered is nearly everything. you got a couple month wait before it will be delivered.

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  57. Unless you are buying from a wholesaler like Tulving, which has plenty in stock, they order from Tulving, once they float your money. There are no shortages of silver, my PM trader partner just ordered 500 OZ for immediate delivery.

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