Both of our metals are hanging tough this evening. I kind of feel that this is analogous to a sick patient or an accident victim...if they can just make it through the night, they'll have a much better chance of survival...and if they can survive tomorrow, we'll upgrade them from critical to serious.
In reality, this is the case. The more time we can spend trending higher and the farther we can get away from 1321 and 26.54, the higher the likelihood that we have seen the lows. That said, I still place a much higher probability of a double-bottom low than a "V" low so sit tight and let's watch the action overnight and early on the Death Star tomorrow.
Finally tonight, we received some very, very strange Death Star open interest numbers today. Very strange. I'll let Harvey summarize for you: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
Not entirely sure what to make of this yet. Yes, its nice that OI contracted so significantly. Having such dramatically less open contracts is unabashedly bullish. This many, however, doesn't pass the smell test. Reader Cris passed along a link from another blogger. I have no idea who this person is but "she" makes some interesting points. Perhaps Cris can add some input regarding this person in the comments section. At any rate, you can read her thoughts here: http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm
There's beginning to be so much smoke, there almost has to be a fire somewhere.
1) Ted Butler claims the Chicoms are going to crash the Death Star but only after they drive price down first.
2) The silvergoldsilver guys make this idea the topic of their latest video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ
3) That crazy email that got passed everywhere that said "Hedge Funds were going to buy as many March silver contracts as possible and demand cash and a premium at settlement" but only after they drive the price down first.
4) Silver begins a 15% correction.
5) Total silver open interest has barely budged during this entire, 3-week decline.
I don't know. I've got to think about this some more. Is it time to load up on out-of-the-money, March and May silver calls? Maybe. I'll of course let you know if I decide to take action.
I did, however, make some changes today. I sold the last of my wheat calls (clearly too early) and swapped into some more March silver and soybean calls (hopefully not too early). We'll see how that goes.
Please also take a few minutes to ponder this gem from ZeroHedge. With all the hubbub today, I nearly overlooked it and you might have, too. Just great stuff! What would we do without "Tyler"?
OK, that's it. See you in the a.m. (U.S.). Turd out.