Thursday, January 27, 2011

Sour Grapes

OK, I admit it. Maybe I'm just bent out of shape because I gave you 1320 and 26.50 a week in advance and, for about 18 hours, I looked like frickin Nostradamus. Instead, I'm Nostradumbass.

I believe we have reached a rather interesting point. Everyone who knows anything about precious metal trading (myself excluded) from Harvey to Ted to Jim to Dan to Rob to Eric seems utterly confounded by the action in and out of the pits. Its almost surreal. Harvey tonight begged people to get out of paper metal, buy physical and look the other way. Ted Butler seems to have his head spinning so fast he doesn't know which way is up. Look at this freaking chart, for the love of pete:
I wish I had something witty or insightful to say but, the truth is, I'm out of ideas. I'm not just going to make something up and grasp at straws just to make you believe I have an answer for everything. I don't and I really don't now. As crazy as it sounds, the only semi-plausible explanation lies with those crazy silvergoldsilver bears and/or Lady Gaga (or whatever that email lady's name is).

The dollar is in the shitcan.
The Fed is forced to print infinite amounts of money to continue the ponzi.
The U.S. economy continues to sputter if only because of the ongoing, massive cash infusions supplied through the Treasury by the Federal Reserve.
The EU is an economic basketcase as many individual states are bankrupt and their debts are carried by the other, healthier states.
Yet gold and silver are being indiscriminately sold. Crude, too. And copper.

I'm open to any and all answers from our fine group of commenters. Please post your most rational and believable explanation below.

To close on a bright note, we exceeded yesterday's total pageviews by 10% today and set a new, single-day record at 28,560. We may soon approach the point where we need to move from blogspot to our own dedicated site. I'll keep you posted as I will definitely seek out your input if/when the time comes.

Turd out.


11:30 pm EST UPDATE:
First of all, thank to everyone for the moral support. This post was written right after I saw that 5-minute, 50 cent beatdown at 8:30 EST. Wouldn't it be funny if that ended up being the low?

OK, anyway, a couple of comments tonight were so terrific and interesting, I feel that they merit inclusion in the regular text. First up, my man "quintas" checks in with some very good advice:
"Turd - don't sweat it. Nobody can read the price action over the past few weeks, except those insiders who are causing it, obviously.

The Metals market has now, in my view, officially gone full retard. Sure there are people who've been calling for a pullback and they're getting one, but then, there's always someone (many people usually) calling for precious metals to crash, so when it does drop there's always someone who looks like they saw it coming and is therefore accorded visionary status by some.

I've been trading metals for quite a few years now, and what's going on at the moment feels substantively different from what has gone before.

Over time we have all become familiar with the games that the Bullion Banks normally play. OpEx smackdowns, chart painting, engineering big moves around jobs number announcements etc. Been there, done that.

I am guessing, and given the opacity of the PM markets that's all one can do, that we are near the endgame right here. I don't know if the talking bears are right. I have no way of knowing if the supposed Silver raid on the Comex next month is anything more than the crazed fantasy of a nut job with a keyboard and a Yahoo account, but I will say this:

There are far too many little signs to ignore, and they strongly suggest that this time it's different (I know, I know). Physical metal is genuinely difficult to obtain in quantity - look at Sprott's difficulties. We see backwardation in Silver on the LBMA. There are phenomenal, record sales reported by the US Mint, bizarre movements in Comex inventories on a daily basis and huge withdrawals from SLV and GLD.

Also, rarely if ever before have I felt the fundamentals to be SO far out of line with the price action, and the activities of the EE to be so blatant - as if they just don't care who sees what they're doing. I'm not suggesting that they care about the CFTC reining them in, but rather that they are blatantly running the risk of discrediting their own paper market in the eyes of the world. Why do that, risking killing the golden goose, if you don't have to?

For what it's worth, my read on all of this is that the crunch point is coming. Maybe soon. The EE is shaking the market to within an inch of its life to scare people away from taking delivery, and possibly also frantically accumulating physical behind the scenes. Smells like fear to me.

I feel like they have my nuts in a vice at the moment, but then again, how much bigger is the vice their nuts are in, being short half a year's global production of silver and facing a physical squeeze?

I will not surrender any physical metal right now. At the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil-hatty, 'That's exactly what they expect me to do'. Hedge with paper? Yes. Sell? No"



Next, and I must admit that I laughed out loud when I saw this, apparently "Wynter Benton" cited yours truly as a "great technician". Oh, if he/she only knew...
"Turd,
Sounds like this wynter_benton knows you.

This seems to be her latest:

"I am not a technician like Turd Ferguson and other far more accomplished technical analysts so I'll leave it up to them to interpret the charts from a purely technical viewpoint.

But in my opinion, the low in silver has now been reached. I base this conclusion on the fact that Blythe could not puncture yesterday's low point. Not even close. Gold got blasted right through 1322 like a hot knife through butter yet silver stubbornly clung to the $27 level and was no where close to the $26.50 level. Believe me, if Blythe wanted silver to crack $26, she has the firepower to do it easily.

The reason that she didnt was because she must somehow realize that the people she was selling her Mar contracts to were going to be standing for delivery. Believe me she knows when these people are buying.

Which gets me to my original post. This whole slam down in precious metalsm was all about silver. Gold was just the unfortunate mechanism and instrument by which Blythe worked her magic. She slammed down gold because she knew eventually traders would not be able to stand for delivery in Feb. The gold market is just too big. But you can buy every ounce that the comex CLAIM to have with a mere $2.8 billion. Blythe has access to that type of money in the folds of her couch at The Morgue's HQ.

You can see clearly now why she needs to suppress the price of silver and force traders to cough up the Mar contracts. Once the slam down in gold no longer has the desired effect than it is time to abandon that strategy. My guess (and it is only that for now) is that we have seen the low for silver.

If she is at all competent, then she will be sending the price of silver up by at least $2 by Feb 8 to make it more difficult for hedgies to raid the Comex. But we'll have to see. Either way as long as hedgies and big investors cough up about $5 billion in Feb, then Blythe and The Morgue will be in a world of hurt.

I want to clear up another point. Some people are interpreting that I am predicting a default in March. That is definitely NOT what I am predicting. All I am predicting is that there will be massive contracts that will be standing for delivery and each one of these contracts will be offered a huge premiums which will be settled in cash. You see, it is always more profitable to buy the Mar contracts settle in cash and then buy the May contracts and do it all over again.

It is as if you buy $1 billion worth of silver, sell it for $1.2 billion and buy the exact same position for $1 billion again. You really don't lose anything and someone automatically gives you 20 percent and you get to keep your position exactly as it was before. Well not exactly because the equivalent May contracts are slightly more than the corresponding Mar contracts. It's up to you what you want to do with your money but since it was so easy in December, why not do it again in March and then again in May?

It's as if you show up with 1 ounce of silver, The Morgue pays you 120% of the value of your holding, and you go back into the pits and buy it back at face value. Nothing could be easier and they are defenseless to stop it.

I know for a fact that the silver shorters are desperately trying to come up with physical silver from anywhere they can get it--from the SLV, the US Mint, foreign ETFs, anywhere they can get physical silver. Too bad it still won't be enough.

So watch for February and see how high silver spikes up. This whole slam down was The Morgue trying to get people to stop hoarding silver, so keep buying physical silver and they will fail. Good luck to all physical silver holders. Our time is close at hand."



And finally, our friends at silvergoldsilver stopped by again. I, for one, can't wait for the next video. I just hope they work the name "Turd Ferguson" somewhere into the text. 
"I am the bears. You can listen to me at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrSilvergoldsilver?feature=mhum
for now until my site gets back and running as an information site, no more bullion selling. I am a former wallstreet trader. I once rigged the game. Come over and listen. I warn you-I am the merchant of truth, sometimes my bluntness is blunt."



OK, that really is it for tonight. Tomorrow is a big day. I'll tell you why in the morning...TF


I lied...one last thing...I mentioned on ZH earlier that the Egyptian "rebellion" could be contained by the Mubarek government IF the Muslim Brotherhood stayed out of the fray. According to debka, they are about to join the fray. Not sure what it means for metals prices but this is definitely something you need to keep an eye on: http://www.debka.com/article/20598/

92 comments:

  1. "They" want your gold; they want it at a cheaper price; they have the mechanisms to scare weak hands into doing just that. "They" want you to believe their fiat is real, and your gold is worth less in VALUE today than yesterday, when in fact it's only less price ( not the same thing ).
    And if you watch those red squiggles every hour, you might just believe them.

    ReplyDelete
  2. END OF FEBRUARY. EOF. Just Wait.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Turd, you are not the only one having lost understanding of what's going on. It just doesn't make "sense" anymore. Unless of course you start believing what wynter_benton is saying over at Yahoo, or Jim Willie. Which is all fine, but betting on it might be risky...

    Maybe the fact that it doesn't make "sense" is an indicator of things to come?

    Let's just all hold together and ride through this.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Are Cef.a, phs.u and phy.u considered paper metal?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Turd, this could be the double bottom you spoke of (@$26.50). But yeah, one gets the impression that their levers are well-oiled, fine-tuned and are being used to whatever ends they feel fit.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "Yet gold and silver are being indiscriminately sold.."

    Paper is being sold.

    Just another step in the disconnect between paper and physical.

    I guess we can expect all sorts of strange things to happen as we get near the end. Hoard the physical gold and silver. This is rollerball in a global corporate state.

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  7. The bottom will be where EE want it, when it becomes evident they are shaking out no physical.

    Maybe they are topping up for a gold standard.

    ReplyDelete
  8. We agree Turd that all reason and rationale has been removed along with the rising snow in NYC...perhaps there really IS a disturbance in the universe that is causing all sorts of wacky behavior...but I am a hoarder, not a trader, so I am just going to sit back and wait until my "puke indicator" tells me it's time to get back in and hoard some more........right now tonight my dinner was fine and not coming back up...so it is too early for me to buy more.....imho, $21 - $22 an ounce might just do it though...time will tell......hang tough and we will WIN in the end!

    ReplyDelete
  9. This was my comment last week...[ I religiously read this site and appreciate Turd's positive outlook. But I have to say, there is no way in hell we are within close proximity to the bottom. 20% we are. 80% chance we see somewhere between $20-23ag.This will play out just like '79-80 with a huge drop so the banksters can cover and go long....] ...$80 drop (from highs)in gold isn't close to what they need to cover.....Turd, you're a chart guy. Go back and look at the price action in '79 before gold went ballistic. I've always believed we will repeat that price movement because the banksters are greedy. They want the absolute lowest price (for their shorts) and a level that has everyone begging to take their shares from them.....So they can make the most when they go long.....history repeats....don't let them have it ( your gold and miners) this time.

    ReplyDelete
  10. At the beginning of the month, I suggested Turd look at his monthly charts, which did not support further rallies. In fact, without going into my methodology, they suggested a correction was likely. Lo and behold, the weekly trend turned down 2 weeks ago. I repeat: THE TREND CHANGED!!

    Markets ebb and flow for a variety of reasons, some natural and some not. As traders, the cause is ultimately unimportant even though we all desire logical explanations. Gold and silver began the month extremely overbought, and now a HEALTHY corrective process has begun that will ultimately enable the markets to reach new highs sometime later this year.

    Until further notice, longs are fighting the trend. Happy trading to all.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Silver bugs, Gold bugs, just relax........

    http://randomlyspecific.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/The-Hypnotist.wmv

    ReplyDelete
  12. We need to get up above 27 and close there tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Kabbalistic Black Magic Banksters

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV0tOu_-sNI&feature=player_embedded#

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  14. I think they are trying to shake out the February gold futures that close tomorrow at 1:30 Eastern, and silver is just collateral damage. They still have 99,036 gold contracts that can stand for delivery tomorrow. If my math is right, that is 308 tonnes of gold that Comex potentially could potentially have to fork over.

    The fact that Harvey said Comex forced da boyz to cover some of their uneconomical spreads because it would hurt Comex if silver went into backwardation seems to me to be an admission that silver is really scarce. The fact that Harvey has seen almost NO movement in the gold Comex vaults says they are hurting for gold. The fact that they can write 200,000 naked shorts in one day to drive down the price says they don't care about those 24 law suits for manipulation they are fighting, and they don't care if these naked shorts they hold blow up in their face. I think this whole thing comes to an end next month with the Iran-Israel war. No oil, no economy, no banks. Comex closes. Have a nice day sheeple! Let them eat cake!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Yes, healthy corrections happen all the time. They just don't usually play out 75% on the Globex and access markets.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The difference between now and 1980 is the global economic situation is on the edge, the US economy is a train wreck in progress likewise parts of Europe and of course China has some issues to deal with.

    Uncertainty about the future abounds. The value of fiat a large question mark. The EE may be taking down PMs for their own reasons but it wont stay down, it will be like a cork.

    PMs are the ultimate insurance in times like these, unless you happen to own a functioning farm with secure fences.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Don't sweat the price swings too much. The higher the metals go, the more vicious the pullbacks, which is what we are witnessing now. It may not be a pleasant thing to watch, but the current correction is just that, a correction, and it will be one of many on the long road to higher prices. Nothing grows to the Moon in a straight line.

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  18. Turd - don't sweat it. Nobody can read the price action over the past few weeks, except those insiders who are causing it, obviously.

    The Metals market has now, in my view, officially gone full retard. Sure there are people who've been calling for a pullback and they're getting one, but then, there's always someone (many people usually) calling for precious metals to crash, so when it does drop there's always someone who looks like they saw it coming and is therefore accorded visionary status by some.

    I've been trading metals for quite a few years now, and what's going on at the moment feels substantively different from what has gone before.

    Over time we have all become familiar with the games that the Bullion Banks normally play. OpEx smackdowns, chart painting, engineering big moves around jobs number announcements etc. Been there, done that.

    I am guessing, and given the opacity of the PM markets that's all one can do, that we are near the endgame right here. I don't know if the talking bears are right. I have no way of knowing if the supposed Silver raid on the Comex next month is anything more than the crazed fantasy of a nut job with a keyboard and a Yahoo account, but I will say this:

    There are far too many little signs to ignore, and they strongly suggest that this time it's different (I know, I know). Physical metal is genuinely difficult to obtain in quantity - look at Sprott's difficulties. We see backwardation in Silver on the LBMA. There are phenomenal, record sales reported by the US Mint, bizarre movements in Comex inventories on a daily basis and huge withdrawals from SLV and GLD.

    Also, rarely if ever before have I felt the fundamentals to be SO far out of line with the price action, and the activities of the EE to be so blatant - as if they just don't care who sees what they're doing. I'm not suggesting that they care about the CFTC reining them in, but rather that they are blatantly running the risk of discrediting their own paper market in the eyes of the world. Why do that, risking killing the golden goose, if you don't have to?

    For what it's worth, my read on all of this is that the crunch point is coming. Maybe soon. The EE is shaking the market to within an inch of its life to scare people away from taking delivery, and possibly also frantically accumulating physical behind the scenes. Smells like fear to me.

    I feel like they have my nuts in a vice at the moment, but then again, how much bigger is the vice their nuts are in, being short half a year's global production of silver and facing a physical squeeze?

    I will not surrender any physical metal right now. At the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil-hatty, 'That's exactly what they expect me to do'. Hedge with paper? Yes. Sell? No

    ReplyDelete
  19. Turd,
    I hate to present an alternate view of the technical analysis situation, because that is your bailiwick and it's your site and all, but I really think this one has some merit.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Summers/jan262011.html

    Do you remember several weeks ago when you were so tickled that your "umbrella" pattern on the USDX seemed so precient? Well, for 2-3 weeks now I've been looking at longer term gold charts and wondering why nobody was calling for an umbrella pattern in gold. Well, now Graham Summers has done exactly that.

    Three Points:
    I sometimes think technical analysis is a little bit like palm reading or horoscopes. We tend to see what we want to see. I know I've done it. Maybe you got a little bit of that too sometimes.

    TA depends a great deal on what time frame you are looking at. In Summers' article he's looking at longer term charts than you usually are.

    I try not to get too wrapped up in back stories about JPM or lady winters or chinese flying monkeys or whatever. Nor do I want to get all tied up in knots analyzing USD, oil, copper, POMO, et al. Let's just keep our eye on the fundamentals and just take a good honest look at the gold charts and see whatever there is to see.

    There. You asked us to post our best explanation. That's mine. Keep up the good work.

    ps--Summers is looking to buy with both hands at 1250 gold and 25 silver. I can live with that.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Smells very much like the Caveat moment in the Yahoo message, don't you think? I didn't really take an online rumor seriously but this one did sound interesting so far.

    ReplyDelete
  21. 100oz Silver bars getting scarce.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/27_All_100_Ounce_Silver_Bars_Will_be_Gone_in_a_Matter_of_Days.html

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  22. I reckon the highest probability scenario is that a double bottom is in at 26.5ish.

    I'm suspicious of extreme predictions, and think a takedown to $20 is unlikely ... apart from anything else, hedgers have been REDUDING their net short interest (i.e. covering old shorts and not initiating new ones).

    ReplyDelete
  23. We see lots of talk about the USD, but guessing the bounce (or continuation lower) is not of predictive value as much as it's coincidental. Keep it as simple as possible because we've also seen them move in the same direction together.
    Might as well only focus on the metals as that's what we're trading and guess when they will turn. The USD is becoming increasingly irrelevant, especially an index priced in other BS paper currencies.

    ReplyDelete
  24. @ PETE

    Maybe EE is buying 100OZ bars as CRIMEX settlement? I have even heard wilder speculation such as it's EE buying the Silver Eagles from US Mint to use them to cover their shorts. HOHOHOHO...

    Clutch moment, folks. We radical metal bugs just have to hold on tight to ride it out be it another week, month, quarter or year.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I am the bears. You can listen to me at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrSilvergoldsilver?feature=mhum
    for now until my site gets back and running as an information site, no more bullion selling. I am a former wallstreet trader. I once rigged the game. Come over and listen. I warn you-I am the merchant of truth, sometimes my bluntness is blunt.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Jim Rogers said ( a few years ago ) "If the price of gold goes up i'll buy more, if it goes down I'll buy more" While the roller coaster ride does make me regret lunch, I'm in for the long haul, and no paper game is going to affect my stacks. Gold Bitches!

    ReplyDelete
  27. The corruption continues. Time will tell whether it is a deperate last gasp of a dying beast or whether there's still some fight left in him. In the end truth will prevail. Physical will defeat the paper fraudsters.

    From Ed Steer's column today. He's quoting Ted Butler.
    --------

    Needless to say, I was very encouraged by the big turnaround in silver and gold prices yesterday...as we are now very close to a bottom...if we're not there already. The precious metals shares [especially the junior silver producers] were proof that there was a feeding frenzy of bottom fishing going on...and that's always a positive sign.

    To quote another couple of sentences from Ted's note to clients yesterday..."In short, this was a classic Comex jam-job by the commercials to the downside. Don't be fooled by the now-bearish rhetoric about silver's prospects. News and opinion follows price. Those bearish on silver now, will be singing a bullish tune once prices start to rally. That's just the way the world works."

    "The sell-off wasn't invited, or welcomed, by silver or gold investors...or by me. Nor was it a simple case of the free market at work. Far from it. This week's COT report will show just what the most recent COTs have shown, namely, that a very small group of Comex commercials have been able to buy what many leveraged speculative long traders were forced to sell. Without belaboring the point, it is not possible for such a small group of commercial traders to bamboozle so many other traders so methodically and consistently without collusion."

    Both silver and gold are under a bit of pressure at the moment [4:29 a.m. Eastern time]...but that's largely due to a 40 basis point pop in the world's reserve currency that began around 7:30 a.m. in London...so I wouldn't read a whole lot into this price action. Gold volume [net of roll-overs] is microscopic at under 6,000 contracts. That's the smallest net gold volume I've ever seen at this time of day. On the other hand, silver's net volume is 8,000 contracts...and this is the first time ever that I've seen silver volume exceed gold volume at any time of day anyplace in the world. It's amazing to look at.

    That's all I have for today. New York trading begins pretty soon...and it could prove to be another interesting day.

    I'm still 'all in'.

    ReplyDelete
  28. The only thing i'm holding on to is that Gold, Silver, Copper, Heating oil, and Nat. gas options expire tomorrow. That is what I have to believe at this point tomorrow should be a huge day. If not and something doesn't happen by early next week, or i guess few weeks,i'm not sure if i'll get back in.

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  29. I commented on the Gold umbrella formation on another of these posts earlier today. No-one then seemed interested in facing up to a potentially depressing scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Turd,
    Sounds like this wynter_benton knows you.

    This seems to be her latest:

    "I am not a technician like Turd Ferguson and other far more accomplished technical analysts so I'll leave it up to them to interpret the charts from a purely technical viewpoint.

    But in my opinion, the low in silver has now been reached. I base this conclusion on the fact that Blythe could not puncture yesterday's low point. Not even close. Gold got blasted right through 1322 like a hot knife through butter yet silver stubbornly clung to the $27 level and was no where close to the $26.50 level. Believe me, if Blythe wanted silver to crack $26, she has the firepower to do it easily.

    The reason that she didnt was because she must somehow realize that the people she was selling her Mar contracts to were going to be standing for delivery. Believe me she knows when these people are buying.

    Which gets me to my original post. This whole slam down in precious metalsm was all about silver. Gold was just the unfortunate mechanism and instrument by which Blythe worked her magic. She slammed down gold because she knew eventually traders would not be able to stand for delivery in Feb. The gold market is just too big. But you can buy every ounce that the comex CLAIM to have with a mere $2.8 billion. Blythe has access to that type of money in the folds of her couch at The Morgue's HQ.

    You can see clearly now why she needs to suppress the price of silver and force traders to cough up the Mar contracts. Once the slam down in gold no longer has the desired effect than it is time to abandon that strategy. My guess (and it is only that for now) is that we have seen the low for silver.

    If she is at all competent, then she will be sending the price of silver up by at least $2 by Feb 8 to make it more difficult for hedgies to raid the Comex. But we'll have to see. Either way as long as hedgies and big investors cough up about $5 billion in Feb, then Blythe and The Morgue will be in a world of hurt.

    I want to clear up another point. Some people are interpreting that I am predicting a default in March. That is definitely NOT what I am predicting. All I am predicting is that there will be massive contracts that will be standing for delivery and each one of these contracts will be offered a huge premiums which will be settled in cash. You see, it is always more profitable to buy the Mar contracts settle in cash and then buy the May contracts and do it all over again.

    It is as if you buy $1 billion worth of silver, sell it for $1.2 billion and buy the exact same position for $1 billion again. You really don't lose anything and someone automatically gives you 20 percent and you get to keep your position exactly as it was before. Well not exactly because the equivalent May contracts are slightly more than the corresponding Mar contracts. It's up to you what you want to do with your money but since it was so easy in December, why not do it again in March and then again in May?

    It's as if you show up with 1 ounce of silver, The Morgue pays you 120% of the value of your holding, and you go back into the pits and buy it back at face value. Nothing could be easier and they are defenseless to stop it.

    I know for a fact that the silver shorters are desperately trying to come up with physical silver from anywhere they can get it--from the SLV, the US Mint, foreign ETFs, anywhere they can get physical silver. Too bad it still won't be enough.

    So watch for February and see how high silver spikes up. This whole slam down was The Morgue trying to get people to stop hoarding silver, so keep buying physical silver and they will fail. Good luck to all physical silver holders. Our time is close at hand."

    ReplyDelete
  31. Weenee.... don't sweat it....I have faith in ya Turd....I also have faith in JPM and Blythe. After all THEY are the paper gold and silver. So what do you expect? Relax....THEY have the biggest problem...in the longer run the physical Bullion will trump all as fiat currency ponzi unravels. So what if it goes further down......unless you're greedy and leveraged. Still have dry powder and will watch for the confirmed turn....its just that I can't help nibbling on these dips......hehehee gl gang

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  32. RoCoach: Many have noticed this formation, including Jim Sinclair's rounding top comment recently. The more important questions is; has it run its course. We must be getting close if the fundos mean anything.

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  33. dd: Agreed. I certainly hope the end is near, but fundos don't mean anything in a rigged market. Things that are oversold (or overbought) can continue to be oversold or overbought for longer than we expect.

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  34. www.silvergoldsilver.com:

    Seems to be playing out just the way your last vid called it.

    When can we expect the next video?

    ReplyDelete
  35. I scaled into gold back when it was $400. Does anyone here remember those days? I remember when a -$12 day was a really really big deal.

    I remember when gold first stepped over $500, that glass ceiling that held it back for almost 15 years. Stepped over that line and kept waltzing. I knew things had changed, although nobody was to know or care for years to come.

    I remember the correction from $1200 back down to $975. And now this.

    We're not in a bubble. Last time I visited the local coin shop, business was not exactly brisk, I got served immediately, no waits, no lines, no more interest from the public than I've seen before.

    This is just another medium-sized correction, not the first one I've seen and probably not the last either.

    I'll put it this way - that position I scaled into, I'm not selling.

    That being said, I know enough about corrections to not say when it might end - or where. I'd say it's a bit early for the yearly gold cycle to start declining and troughing - usually it waits until April or May to start going down. Usually bottoms out in August and starts heading back up to peak around Xmas.

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  36. My thoughts, I hope rational and believable.

    There are a lot of USD floating around, and tens or hundreds of trillions more in derivatives. These are all debts, denominated in US currency. Debt expands the money supply. Paying off a debt contracts it. Defaulting doubly-contracts the money supply (ie M3 reduces by twice the value of the debt in the case of default). I think. Where's an amputee economist - no "on the other hand..." - when you need one?

    Suppose you were a banker and knew a massive default was brewing, and that the money supply was about to suddenly shrink. Not in little drips like the Bernanke's POMO-boys drop into the money supply to pummel PMs and buoy the S&P, no I mean a full-out flood-gate-opening deluge of default that just drains the bigger Ms measuring broader money.

    So we suddenly have the same amount of real stuff, but less money, ie a deflationary spike, and everything gets hit. This is what happened in '08, it was a monetary event that hit all asset classes simultaneously: equities, real estate oil, gold, silver, bonds, you name it, all perfectly correlated as measured by the USD. It was just that the supply of dollars shrank, so each dollar had to be bigger to represent all the stuff.

    So do the bankers know what they are doing, and that they are going to be able to cover on the cheap the day after the Big Default? Maaayybeee...

    JPM, being clever lads, but not allowed to go long the PMs, corner the market in copper instead? It just suddenly occurred to me as plausible... why copper?

    I have been wondering when we see the first audit of PSLV/PHS. To the extent Eric hasn't been able to convert cash to physical, it is paper too I am afraid. Doesn't stop me from buying it, because I trust Eric a whole lot more than SLV/GLD.

    Who can explain to me the meaning of the sudden rise in silver lease rates? Who remembers what happened in 2002 (see the long term chart at the bottom)? What the ??? What does this portend?
    http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

    Nice work, Turd.
    b2b

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  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  38. Turd,
    Besides, if it turned right now, the lows would turn out to be something like 1308 and 26.40. So you had 1320 and 26.50. Big deal. Now come down off the ledge.

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  39. If the PMs drop any lower, this is what I will be doing. I highly advise all of you to watch the full clip:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ELleCQvew

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  40. exiledbear--Yeah, I know what you mean. The other day I was checking my old notes on my cost basis for my gold stash. I bought my first coins around 410. Doubled down at 310 and was scared to death to do it. What a long strange trip it's been. And it ain't over yet. Not by a long shot. We'll all get through this alright, if we just sit tight.

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  41. Trying to catch a few small knives junior gold and silver miners here in Australia, but as yet the correction hasn't come down to my prices.

    See how it goes towards the days end. Cautious about getting in too much at this stage though I guess while BB pumps equities ours will keep floating upward as well. I more fearful of a large stock market correction than gold and silver corrections.

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  42. Trying to find meaning in the technicals of any chart with a timeframe < Daily, will simply boggle the mind of most investors. Unless you're trading the underlying instrument there is no need to get caught up in the "hocus pocus" of intricate trends / reversals / indicators and of course their interpretations. In a higly trending instrument, such as Gold, sticking to the right side of a long-term Moving Average and dynamic trend-line tends to be enough for most people with a fundamental backing.

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  43. This drop definitely doesn't pass the smell test. Something's up. The PM's are moving dramatically in the opposite direction of what would make sense fundamentally.

    I think it's all Fed manipulation.

    The Fed will do everything possible to maintain the sheeples faith in the USD b/c the USD is not backed by anything other than faith. If a tipping point in the loss of this faith is ever reached, it's gameover for the largest debtor country. PM's are seen by many as being a form of money. PM's will surge as people lose their faith in the fiat currency. Gold/Silver/Oil are the biggest inflation barometers spewed forth by the MSM. What better way to restore some faith in the USD than to crush PM's?

    The other commodities are not getting hit like gold/silver/oil.

    http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=13

    I think the Fed is sensing that the economy is contracting at a huge rate; a rate that can not be offset by (immediate) money printing without a total collapse of the USD. They are going to allow some of this deflation unlike they've done in the past 2 years.

    It's pretty easy to manipulate the price of gold when you own way more than other entity in the world. Oil can be manipulated by making ongoing deals with Saudi Arabia and such. Silver is manipulated either by turning a blind eye to naked shorting, or some backdoor deal with China.

    So, they are trying to do all they can to give faith back to the USD despite all of the money printing & ongoing collapse which will cause much more money printing for quite some time.

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  44. reading the above wynter_benton quoted post, this supposed comex raid doesn't seem to be so much of a big deal. what i thought initially about it being a scheme to get fat cash settlements seems to be about right. surely the Morgue et al aren't particularly short in FRNs.

    it would be a major problem if the 'raid' was about standing for physical delivery at all costs, but if the plan is to get them to fork over large cash settlements, they have enough spare cash or can get a bailout or whatever. will have to see how the shortages play out elsewhere. presumably they would be going the for cash because they know there is no metal. can anyone elaborate on this?

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  45. how low does paper gold have to fall for the world to buy the physical dip so hard that there are real defaults?

    -doubledip

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  46. Here's some long term charts to make everybody feel better. No more grumpy gills. Keep scrolling down. The longer the chart, the better it looks.

    http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html#20_year_gold_price

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  47. Turd,

    I see you are upset, but why? As far as I can see support for gold is right around the corner at 1305$ and 1280$ which is a major support line from 2009 onwards.
    Same story for crude, 80$ strong support on wedge edge...

    http://www.commoditypress.com/2011/01/28/gold-how-low-can-you-go/

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  48. For people new to metals manipulation, read this:
    https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html

    The illusion must be maintained at all costs. The illusion is What Money Is. Remember what Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder said?

    "The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth."

    You've heard it all before.

    "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who...."

    "Give me control of a nation's money...."

    "If you don't hold it...."

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  49. I've got a question for all...

    If the money is going to crash again, and I can take a large chunk of my 401k out as a low interest loan to myself, shouldn't I do so to invest in gold and silver before another wipe out like in '08 happens and this time kills way more than the 30% or so that I lost that time? I've finally saved that much back again and now it seems my 401k is a sitting duck again to become a 201k or worse. Why not take what I can out to buy physical PM's? The payments back into the 401k to myself are low enough not to bother me, and I think I'll have to pay taxes on the lump sum I get that would be considered extra income right? Ya think it's worth it rather than letting it get destroyed again like in '08? I wasn't prepared for that crash back then...had no clue it was happening until it was too late. I want to be ahead of that bullshit this time around any way I can.

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  50. silvergoldsilver, why is your site down and why did you stop selling bullion? When it part 4 of your video series coming out?

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  51. If anyone is interested in this Wynter Benton person, here's a link to all comments:
    http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm

    Seems that he/she is an extremely bitter ex-employee of Blythe.

    Don't know why Feb 8 is the date that large buying of March silver contracts is due to begin. Anyone know?

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  52. I think it is obvious what people's view on PMs are here, but that isn't investment advice to others. We all take our own risks with knowledge that we can be completely wrong.

    My strategy is to have a percentage of funds in cash, property, gold, silver and some PM and oil shares. Plus I maintain about 6 months supply of non perishable food.

    Of liquid funds I have 78% in cash (AUD)12% PMs 10% PM/Oil shares. Some of that cash will be added to PMs and junior PM miners.

    There is however the message out there that everybody should have at least some gold and silver.

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  53. Anybody want to offer an opinion?:
    If you were holding your 6month emergency cash fund (the one your suppose to have in case you lose your job) would you get rid of the FRN's (50K) and buy physical gold and silver instead? Or the other option would be to payoff the mortgage on a second home we own, grandma living in it. The reason I ask is that Richard Russel recommends getting out of dollar related, intangible assets. Looks like a good time to start scaling in to physical too. Currently, I have a very stable job.

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  54. Consider what may actually happen when the paper market breaks down and systemically crashes. The cascade through the financial system will affect aspects of the economy seemingly unrelated to precious metals. Consider a backlash against "those crazy gold bugs" for "causing the price of milk to triple!"

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  55. bacq, that short term silver lease chart is very interesting. Why would it spike up just after a huge take down in price? There's lot of hearsay going around but a lot of the evidence is lining up behind it. Cause to me, a spike in silver lease rates suggests somebody really need some physical silver.

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  56. Let's think about this: Bernanke is in QE mode and printing money, exporting inflation across the world. We're already seeing the effects in third world countries. This is the first point.

    Second point. Which countries trade with the US and run large amount of surpluses and the surpluses are mostly in US dollars? China. South Korea. Taiwan. Japan.

    Third point. Which of these countries are BOS possible candidates? All of them.

    Fourth point. Which of these trade surplus countries are celebrating lunar new year on Feb 3? China. South Korea. Taiwan. (I don't know about Japan.)

    So when we connect the dots, we see BOS(es) on vacation and without their involvement in the PM market, manipulation is easy.

    They know they're getting slaughtered holding US dollars through QE, and they want to diversify through PM. PM price drifting lower is also to their advantage, so they don't mind waiting for lower price.

    We hear rumors of hedge fund buying contracts and standing for delivery, some of these hedge funds may even be fronts of foreign gov entities. Fed and PD aren't the only ones who know how to play off-shore foreign company games.

    Expect more smack downs on Friday. Gold will probe below 1300 level and stops will be taken out. If we see sharp reversals on the Feb 7 week, then BOS's true identities can be confirmed. Just my 2 cents.

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  57. Ian, no. Don't do that. Only buy PM's with MONEY YOU HAVE. Do not go into debt to get it, least of all money in your 401K. Stay out of debt. The coming problems we are facing will not be friendly to anyone with significant debt. Do not let anyone tell you otherwise, hyperinflation or no.

    I should also throw this out there as a common sense tidbit for everyone to mull over. I'm no expert, so take it for what it is worth. What significant group is buying silver, or we THINK is buying silver? The Chicoms. What holiday is coming up on February 3rd?

    The Chinese New Year.

    February saw 2010's PM lows (which I personally bought on) and March 2010 got near it again. That is no coinkydink. If the Buyers of Size are actually Chinese, might they be letting the EE lower the boom on the price for a while? So they can buy more in early February?

    If you are the Chinese Government, and you want the Chinese public to buy silver and gold, what better time than Chinese New Year (which is next Thursday, btw)? And what better way to help your country than let your enemies hit themselves in the face to lower the price on YOUR precious metals, so you can pick it up cheaper?

    Remember, the BoS was the only one holding Blythe and the EE off this month. We had FUBM events ONLY due to the BoS. Then they stopped for an unknown reason and the metals are in freefall. That reason is Chinese New Year. I think it's that simple.

    At any rate, get yer green toilet paper ready next week, cuz it is a great time to ring in the New Year in a shiny way. AGAIN.

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  58. Turd, don't try to call the bottom. Just wait it out with the rest of us.

    Michael

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  59. I'm so new to all of this and struggle to keep up. Still, I find it strange that gold is down so much while silver remains fairly high.

    So many times I've seen people comment that they would sell one and use the proceeds to buy the other. Is it possible that the gold price is being brought low and silver is being kept high(er) to entice people to sell their silver and purchase gold instead?

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  60. From Harvey's last post I feel that the EE are selling gold futures to bring down the silver..

    see the amount of gold traded vs silver traded and compare it with the past ratios..

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  61. Turd
    Remember a few weeks (?) ago you pointed out the BoS buying at $25 and then a $1.50 step up at $26.50, then another $1.50 to $28. Maybe they are happy to have their buy orders at $26.50 for now?

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  62. Turd, I'm calling a bottom right now. We hit the bottom in Hong Kong Friday Jan 28th, 2011. Only a few hours before I write this message. The pain is over...

    We're about to be able to enjoy this roller coaster a little bit more!

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  63. @Ian: Don't take money out of your IRA to buy PMs. The taxes and penalties are not worth it. Make more money, spend less, and use the extra cash to buy PMs. If you are worried about a crash, allocate more of your IRA to cash so you will have money to buy when the crash comes. Do your homework and diversify. There are lots of ways to increase your PM exposure in your IRA including ETFs, mining stocks, etc.

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  64. Turd. We try to divine bottoms cause that's what bulls do in a correction. We also have a tendency to cough up a bit of leverage by holding a little too long into the abyss, and then declaring: Never again!

    Yeah, right.

    Lots head scratching on this one. Boatloads of interesting, sometimes conflicting conjecture floating around the surface, while the underlying tie that binds is always (wait for it): manipulation. If we think this correction is a nail biter, watch the reaction on the first 10% draw down from the 2000 level. Ho Man!

    Another thing this little speed bump has produced is an abundance of talented commentary, all of it right here on your blog. Thanks guys.

    GLTUrd!

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  65. I think it's the blood in my alcohol stream, but I read this as ---

    "Blythe has access to that type of money in the folds of her CROTCH at The Morgue's HQ."

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  66. I only know bottoms in 'hindsight'

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  67. Just called over 10 coin shops about bullion gold here in Singapore not one has any stock.

    Here we usually do not buy from te banks because of a 7% tax, but due to lack of options I dropped by the bank - unbelievable for the first time there is queue.

    Speaking to the teller it's the first time this in a long while she's seen such buying interest.

    Btw the only bullion silver dealer here charges a 33% premium., and in the last 2months a large buyer picked up 40 monster boxes.

    Insane.

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  68. After a bit of research and by way of diversification in methods of holding I will be getting some pmgold on the ASX some time next week. Essentially this one for trading though they do guarantee delivery if you want it.

    However how low is the target of the EE? I shudder to think.

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  69. @Ian:
    I think everyone should be building their own personal financial fortress, so I am not one of those in favor of pulling out 401K funds as a loan to yourself; doing so weakens your defenses.

    1. You may have a stable job now, but if you were to lose it you would have to pay back the loan in full immediately. Your PMs might be temporarily depressed in price when that happens. Not good if you are forced to liquidate.

    2. Instead, find out more information about your 401k plan from your employer. Some plans have only a few investment options/choices and others have many. If inflation is your main concern then direct your investments as much as possible toward hard asset choices like oil, PMs, timber. If diversified stock funds is all they offer then go with those. Stay away from long-dated bond funds.

    3. Your employer's plan might have a self-directed option that allows you to segregate your account and invest it yourself pretty much as you could at any broker. If you feel competent doing that...

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  70. Just when I thought we'd seen the bottom at 26.50ish, Blythe and the monkeys came through to show us who really runs the show. As we fell through 26.50 overnight, I got wiped out of my paper positions. The same paper positions that were showing a £10k open profit a few short weeks ago.....I hate it but yet I love it at the same time and no doubt I'll be back for more once the blood dries up and I'm able to walk properly again.

    Anyway, the main reason for this post is to bring up an important point about physical silver. I'm sure there are a few of us keeping some powder dry for a further fall in the silver price but I wanted to highlight a few things that I think we all need to keep in mind.

    1. We are clearly seeing a huge disconnect between physical/paper prices. If silver goes below $20, how many people do you think are actually going to part with their bullion at that price? My guess is not many. Silver is a tiny market and most of us who are in the game are fully aware of the value of physical over paper so I would expect the premium to keep rising as the paper price drops.

    2. We know that physical silver is becoming harder to find by the day and when the supply of 1000oz bars runs dry then we might just get our first taste of a real scramble for physical. We won't know about this until after it's actually happened and my fear is that some of us might get left holding our monopoly money whilst waiting for another dip. If you are holding fiat in anticipation of a further dip in prices then might I suggest that you hold it in small denominations so if SHTF, at least you'll have a larger supply of toilet paper and fuel for the fire.

    Moral of the story: Buy physical, at any price, WHILE YOU STILL CAN!!

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  71. Ian, I just helped my brother in his 401K. Turd has a post on miners he likes; do your own DD, and diversify. There is of course Sprott's physical ETF's PSLV and PHY; I love one of Turds picks TRE; theier is SIL and SLW; and a slew of other good miners. You might pick up some uranium stocks, a little agri ( RJA for example) and energy. So you have PM's; agri, and energy and keep some cash for future opportunities.
    Hope this helps.

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  72. Turd, me thinks this ex Blythe employee, lady wynter_benton has a soft spot for you.. Does Mrs Turd know?? Glad she is posting and has respect for you.
    Several wonder about the date.. Feb 8, I know it sounds wacky, however, one must check out this link and site to my comments on Dec 29th nearing the bottom of the page http://www.enterprisecorruption.com/ Right 2 times in the past.. I know, I know, wacky.. I warned you..
    Thanks all of you for an education beyond any school or trading firm could ever provide. Turd your "dumping ground" blog comments are the BEST.. Thank you..

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  73. The USDX in the shits, but our PMs sit at the lows -- THIS IS A SICK MARKET.

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  74. came across this blog via ZH - can I just say its a pleasure to read such well informed views about the current situation and long may this continue. Keep up the good work

    Still looks like silver is getting panned - cannot believe the price given where the USDX is, there cant be much more to go here - it just doesnt make sense, no doubt things are happening behind the scenes. Good luck all

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  75. [The USDX in the shits, but our PMs sit at the lows -- THIS IS A SICK MARKET. ]

    I think it is barely a market at all.

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  76. US Mint reporting slow sales now. Someone at the Fed must have placed a call to the Mint saying "what the fuck are idiots reporting massive record Eagle sales to the puplic for?" Where at war here to save the dollar and PR shit like that is not helping. LOL

    http://www.coinnews.net/2011/01/27/us-mint-sales-gold-and-silver-eagles-sleeping/

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  77. Turd, you mentioned Mr. Silvegoldsilver- - 12 hours ago he wrote a comment on his YT channel saying he's expecting silver to fall to 25.49 and is waiting to buy it there. Also calls for sub-1300 Au.

    Don't know if it will come to that but we need to be aware. Again, the key word is patience. We're slogging thru the toughest part of the year and the way to make lemonade out of the lemons is to sit tight and stricke bigtime at the bottom.

    Hang in there everybody. We're gonna win but there's no use getting ahead of ourselves.

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  78. turd i think this correction should come as no surprise since the commodity king jim rogers stated that it would happen. i always listen to him because his track record is pretty good. i could hardly believe it when he said that a correction was coming, but it came just like he said. marc faber is predicting a 20% correction. that would bring gold down to the 11 hundreds...i don't believe it will go that low. marc faber isn't always right. i wouldn't even be surprised if it turned around now and headed higher, but you can't be sure.
    even you were talking about a double bottom a few days ago. maybe you got that? or maybe we are just headed lower.

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  79. So, imagine you're scaling Everest. You want the path to be straihgt up, I want to ARRIVE. But that aint the path; there are stretches you have to go sideways; there are stretches where you actually have to descend a while to find the next up path.
    But in the end, whether climbing down, sideways or up, the destination doesn't change.
    But on this particular climb, it's further complicated. Fuck oh dear it's Donkey Kong! And that bitch is rolling barrels at us, what the deuce!

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  80. Most everyone here is a trader, not a LTBH investor.

    I am a LTBH investor.

    Hence, I look at the fundamentals because they outlive and matter a hell of a lot more to me than short term gyrations.

    Do any of you think that 3 or 4 years from now the events of this week will be remembered?

    Sure, there has been manipulation. What's new about that? It will exist in any financial market, for it is in their nature. Financial markets are not for the squeamish, they attract a bunch of greedy manipulative people who will stoop at nothing to make a buck. If you think you can run with them, good luck to you.

    Which is why I am a fundamental LTBH investor in mostly gold.

    The fact is that QE to infinity cannot be gamed, neither can the fiscal problems we face and surely the debt has to be devalued if we are to survive.

    The best that they can do is fiddle with the statistics, but even that manipulation is being seen for what it is.

    Gold and silver will do fine, but if you think you can beat the banks at their own game inthe short term, you are deluded. You will get fleeced.

    Invest in a way that takes them out of the picture, using investment criteria which they cannot affect.

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  81. Ian--I concur with those saying don't mess with your 401(k). If you are worried about it, then choose the most conservative options available to you in your plan. Every plan has some kind of "Cash Fund" or "Stable Value" type of option. Just do your PM's with your outside money, like that backpack full of cash you mentioned. Diversify. Just going 100% PM's is no good either. Risky business.

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  82. Tim--
    It's a quandary. Cash, gold, debt reduction. What to do? Find a balance that is comfortable for you that's what. There is no perfect right answer.

    Just consider yourself fortunate that you do indeed have choices, and are not just completely strapped to the wall like most of the sheeples.

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  83. Pat,

    Thanks.

    One last thing: Everything and I do mean everything I see points to a USD fall. If you read Bloomberg, you will see a piece today warning about US debt downgrade. I think the rating agencies are going to do things slowly and easily with lots of warning to everyone before they pull the trigger on downgrading Treasuries.

    You don't have to be a genius to know this is coming.

    Can't be gamed. The Chinese rating agency already did it, but it doesn't count in the global scheme of things, though its action was correct.

    What are the Asians going to do when the downgrade happens and their assets get effectively devalued?

    One of two things: go to another currency, the Euro and/or the renminbi. And gold.

    Russia just announced it would be adding 100 tons of gold to its reserves.

    I don't want to go to long in this comment, but the fundamentals for gold and silver are absolutely stellar.

    But you have to wait for these things don't happen overnight. Moreover, you cannot panic because there has been short term manipulation. There will be more, I try to ignore it, though it is difficult.

    My experience over the years has been that I miss out on opportunities or lose money when I let crud like what has happened this week affect my long term views.

    The buck is over

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  84. As for me, I have the furnace guy coming to the house today to sell me a new furnace. It's going to cost me a buttload of money. Still, even though I'm sitting on a nice pile of PM's already, I'm going to go out today and scour the shops again and find 10 decent looking ounces of silver somewhere. Just want to do my part to help crack these bastards.

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  85. Kind of brings up an important point though. If you are trying to find ways of getting rid of your FRN's before they drop some more, it doesn't have to be all gold and silver. Upgrade the energy efficiency of your house. Get a car with better mileage. Buy 40 acres of farmland. Get some new appliances. Take a course and increase your job skills.

    It's all valid.

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  86. I'm trying to understand this stuff but does the backwardation in silver imply that someone needs money?...seems to me like SHIBOR went up same day silver went in to backwardation.

    But if someone effected by the raise in SHIBOR and with silver to lend out...wouldn't they be better of doing the same in gold (if they have it)? So is gold in backwardation? I do not know. Anyone?

    If gold is in backwardation then my best guess to this is that something in china (or a place with a similar recent interbank rate raise) and sitting on PM is in need of currency...just don't know why?

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  87. Eric, DaddyO, thanks for your comments on the
    debt reduction, physical metal, IRA, excess
    FRN stuff!

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  88. Hey TF
    Hate to call myself a "Turdite" but I'm a fan so I guess I am. Happy birthday and all the best to you and the fam. Keep up the good work bud.
    DM

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  89. Funny to see all the old names. Sadly, many of us are long gone now.

    Peace and Aloha to Turdville. Hope you are all doing okay...

    Bay of Pigs

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  90. Wow BOP, good to see you. I hope everyone at Turdtown is doing well. I have not seen Moderator Jane as of late. Please give her a big hug from the Gang of Five.

    Backseatdriver

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  91. eToro is the most recommended forex trading platform for newbie and professional traders.

    ReplyDelete