Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Feeling Better

Frankly, the USDX looks like crap and with Long Duk Dong in town for a few days, the pressure should continue as his presence only serves to reinforce the reality of just how screwed we in America are. The index is slowly sinking but I'm getting the feeling that the drop will accelerate into the overnight and tomorrow. Watch first 78.50 or so in the March (about 78.25 cash) but I've got a gut feeling we're headed all the way to 78. Check this out:

The metals sense this, too, and they are trading higher this evening. As discussed in the previous note, when gold held 1365 buyers rushed in and the shiny stuff now sits at about 1373. Very positive development. 1385 now looks in the cards. Silver has cleared 29 and is now 29.14. Very nice. Additionally, Harvey reported tonight that the Open Interest in the March silver actually expanded by 2000 contracts on Friday. Wow! Maybe that crazy email that's been making the rounds is really happening? Maybe Ted Butler and the cute, little bears from silvergoldsilver are onto something. Lastly, our other indicator, Dr C, is exploring the top end of its recent range at 444. 
Turdite "DD" sent me an updated 2-day gold chart. I like it a lot, too:
So, anyway, in anticipation of further dollar weakness, I'm going to go ahead and take at least a partial position in March silver calls. As soon as I sign off, I'm calling the L-W night desk to see where I might buy. 
Good luck. God bless. Let's have a fun Wednesday.

12:00 midnight EST:
Things continue to improve as we trudge along. Copper sits, at present, at its high of the session at 444.75. Crude's up a few pennies and the PMs are about where they were when I posted earlier. I did not get filled on any options as the nighttime action is so thin that the spreads are too wide to effectively buy anything. Oh well, we'll see what the overnight brings.
One last thing before I turn in...I think, by now, you all know my feelings toward the effectiveness of long-term TA in the current PM "markets". However, you should also know by now that I am never one to assume I've got it all figured out. With that in mind, click this link to Santa. Here, the great timer, Alf Fields, discusses his short-term gold forecast. In a nutshell, Alf believes we are seeing a bottom in gold this week and that the next leg up has a target of around 1650.  That'd work.
That's it for now. Good luck tomorrow. TF


  1. DXY is wobbly and the PM market looks to be scraping off the bottom

  2. Coundn't wait. Had to buy some physical silver this morning. It was too tempting. Thanks for the insights Turd. Keep up the good work.

  3. Hi Turd!

    I doubt that Alf Fields needs an intoduction on this blog.


    Did you hug your favorite bullion dealer today?

    (Nice work Tim)


  4. [If you are a long-term PM holder rather than a trader, you can probably ignore the following]:

    Interesting comment at ZH re USD weakness over the last few hours:-

    by chump666
    on Tue, 01/18/2011 - 20:56

    ton of intervention going on now (FX) more so EUR being bought @500-600billion. USD/JPY selling @500 billion at the same time.

    caused all risk trades upward via HFT bids.

    but Shanghai is down again.

    inflation crunch and China's quick draw bond diversification plan (sell UST buy EU bonds) all at once.

    something is in the wind...and it's bad s***

  5. Let the USDX swan dive begin.

  6. Damn, I have to wait until Feb. 1st for my 2010 bonus check. I'm actually pulling for Blythe for 12 more days so I can buy the dip. I don't think I'll have any such luck. The upward forces feel strong.

  7. dryam, you have until Feb 8 so don't sweat it.

  8. I sense a break out above 29.20 and a run to 29.50 + overnight.

  9. Thanks, GG. Would seem to be some cross currents in that action. Very intriguing...

  10. Yes, the dollar keeps falling. What bothers me is these huge dollar down days with very little gold bounce. I sense a set-up with the dollar coiling, ready to bounce. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, just don't see the powers that be giving up that easy. I think they're waiting for the perfect moment. Probably just as we start counting our money....

  11. But it would be unwise for TPTB to move multi-trillion currency markets to set up a trap for a few-billion market like PMs

  12. Very quiet day in Gold with small spikes to the upside - quickly egalized again...

    In silver the volatility is bigger and on the way up to 29.5

    very interesting day ahead...

  13. Looking good Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis...

  14. Haven't seen an 8:20 EST EE attack for a few days.

  15. Wow!
    A 0.12 move down at 8:20 then straight up!
    Looks good. Time to buy. More later.

  16. dd: I hope this is the shorts:

    "So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it. "

  17. EUR/USD is crapping the bed big time (1.35 broken easily today) so USDX is where we want it

  18. Kitco has copper at 2.93! WTF?

  19. FISD: Mistick. Its still stuck in its range. 442.70

  20. I just laugh at the image of Blythe running around with her broom trying to round up her monkeys screaming "Attack, ATTACK!"

  21. Word verification for last post: