That Was Then, This Is Now?

Let's start today by closing yesterday.

I've received several correspondence regarding my emotional response to EE attacks/tactics. Most question why I get upset when we are all believers in physical. Its a good question.

I started posting to ZH and, subsequently, here because I feel I have something to share. Years of trading in commodities have given me some invaluable experience (and a shorter life expectancy) and, since so many are "new to the game", I thought it could be beneficial if I shared some of my "wisdom". Acquisition of this "wisdom" has cost me a lot of money so, if I can share it with you, perhaps you can avoid some of my mistakes.

The reason I vent on days like yesterday is the same reason I hand-draw my charts; I want you to feel my angst so that you know I am a real person. Not just another, anonymous blogger who is trying to make a name for himself or a quick buck. I firmly believe the material and ideas I present to you here and you need to know that in order to make your own judgements on the validity of my arguments. I rail against EE attacks because I know they exist. You may, in the end, disagree but at least you know that I'm not just jacking around, cooking up conspiracy theories in a vain attempt to garner attention.

OK, that said, as a trader/investor you always have to be willing to consider alternative theories. You're never going to be 100% correct so, if you want to survive, you better not believe in absolutes, at least where the Comex is concerned. First, look at this chart of the action since this time yesterday:

Obviously, there was heavy selling into real buying interest (because of the falling USDX) yesterday during the pit hours. This is shown in clear detail by the 15-20 cent ranges of nearly each 15-minute interval. Was this the EE capping price as I first, and still, suspect or was it someone/something else?
What has given me pause this morning is this development:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/china-boosts-bank-reserve-requirements-in-accelerated-attack-on-inflation.html
Stick with me on this...Who or what would have known yesterday at this time that another Chicom RRR hike was coming? Well, the Chicoms for one, that's for sure. If Chicom interests were aggressively shorting silver both during the day yesterday and on the Globex, does it mean that we need to give a second viewing to our friends, the cute, little silvergoldsilver bears?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ
I believe it does. As far-fetched as this idea may seem, it is being promoted by a lot of folks who are significantly smarter and more experienced than I so, please, give it your full consideration as its implications are staggering.

Onto today, here are the only charts you need for now. A daily gold and a daily silver. I still firmly believe that both of these are range-bound, silver between 28-31 and gold 1320-1420 BUT watch the bottoms very closely as and significant break and close below these levels would carry very negative implications for our precious PMs, at least in the short term.

12:45 UPDATE:
Today's action has only served to make me more uneasy about the near-term future of our PMs. News of physical shortages continues and the USDX is stuck at the bottom of its range and yet the PMs are still getting smoked. Also, look at Dr. C:

Those looking for clues as to near-term direction in the PMS should watch this very closely. A move UP through 444 will almost certainly bring a relief to the pressure on the PMs. On the other hand, a drop through 434 and...well, I think you get the picture. Also, be wary of any real or manufactured "news" that may hit the wires that would be sufficient to cause some short-covering or buying in the USDX. You can bet you booty that anything that causes the USDX to rally back toward 80 would be used as an excuse to absolutely obliterate the metals.

Now, take a look at this very important 3-minute silver chart:

Unfortunately, this chart is almost identical to yesterday. A strong Comex open that is met with stiff selling resistance from someone or something. I fear that, just like yesterday, this selling will continue on the Globex this afternoon and price will seriously test 28. The "entity" responsible would most certainly love to print a number that starts with 27 as we head into the weekend. A 27.** close would cause more selling early next week, perhaps down even toward the next major support level of 26.50.
Not sayin, just sayin. Be very cautious this afternoon. If you are significantly in miners or the AGQ do not get caught with your hog in your hand over the weekend if we close below 28. Consider yourself warned.

In the meantime, please take a moment to review this post from last weekend as I intend to update and revise it later today to account for all this craziness.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/important-week-looms.html

Give me a little while to get my shit together then look for a comprehensive summary and forecast by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Thanks. Be careful out there. TF

ps Please remember to use the "exit" on your way out. I found this little gem on one of their sites.
http://www.monex.com/expert/supply-demand-important.html
The Turd appreciates your business.