Friday, January 14, 2011

That Was Then, This Is Now?

Let's start today by closing yesterday.

I've received several correspondence regarding my emotional response to EE attacks/tactics. Most question why I get upset when we are all believers in physical. Its a good question.

I started posting to ZH and, subsequently, here because I feel I have something to share. Years of trading in commodities have given me some invaluable experience (and a shorter life expectancy) and, since so many are "new to the game", I thought it could be beneficial if I shared some of my "wisdom". Acquisition of this "wisdom" has cost me a lot of money so, if I can share it with you, perhaps you can avoid some of my mistakes.

The reason I vent on days like yesterday is the same reason I hand-draw my charts; I want you to feel my angst so that you know I am a real person. Not just another, anonymous blogger who is trying to make a name for himself or a quick buck. I firmly believe the material and ideas I present to you here and you need to know that in order to make your own judgements on the validity of my arguments. I rail against EE attacks because I know they exist. You may, in the end, disagree but at least you know that I'm not just jacking around, cooking up conspiracy theories in a vain attempt to garner attention.

OK, that said, as a trader/investor you always have to be willing to consider alternative theories. You're never going to be 100% correct so, if you want to survive, you better not believe in absolutes, at least where the Comex is concerned. First, look at this chart of the action since this time yesterday:

Obviously, there was heavy selling into real buying interest (because of the falling USDX) yesterday during the pit hours. This is shown in clear detail by the 15-20 cent ranges of nearly each 15-minute interval. Was this the EE capping price as I first, and still, suspect or was it someone/something else?
What has given me pause this morning is this development:
Stick with me on this...Who or what would have known yesterday at this time that another Chicom RRR hike was coming? Well, the Chicoms for one, that's for sure. If Chicom interests were aggressively shorting silver both during the day yesterday and on the Globex, does it mean that we need to give a second viewing to our friends, the cute, little silvergoldsilver bears?
I believe it does. As far-fetched as this idea may seem, it is being promoted by a lot of folks who are significantly smarter and more experienced than I so, please, give it your full consideration as its implications are staggering.

Onto today, here are the only charts you need for now. A daily gold and a daily silver. I still firmly believe that both of these are range-bound, silver between 28-31 and gold 1320-1420 BUT watch the bottoms very closely as and significant break and close below these levels would carry very negative implications for our precious PMs, at least in the short term.

12:45 UPDATE:
Today's action has only served to make me more uneasy about the near-term future of our PMs. News of physical shortages continues and the USDX is stuck at the bottom of its range and yet the PMs are still getting smoked. Also, look at Dr. C:
Those looking for clues as to near-term direction in the PMS should watch this very closely. A move UP through 444 will almost certainly bring a relief to the pressure on the PMs. On the other hand, a drop through 434 and...well, I think you get the picture. Also, be wary of any real or manufactured "news" that may hit the wires that would be sufficient to cause some short-covering or buying in the USDX. You can bet you booty that anything that causes the USDX to rally back toward 80 would be used as an excuse to absolutely obliterate the metals.

Now, take a look at this very important 3-minute silver chart:
Unfortunately, this chart is almost identical to yesterday. A strong Comex open that is met with stiff selling resistance from someone or something. I fear that, just like yesterday, this selling will continue on the Globex this afternoon and price will seriously test 28. The "entity" responsible would most certainly love to print a number that starts with 27 as we head into the weekend. A 27.** close would cause more selling early next week, perhaps down even toward the next major support level of 26.50.
Not sayin, just sayin. Be very cautious this afternoon. If you are significantly in miners or the AGQ do not get caught with your hog in your hand over the weekend if we close below 28. Consider yourself warned.

In the meantime, please take a moment to review this post from last weekend as I intend to update and revise it later today to account for all this craziness.

Give me a little while to get my shit together then look for a comprehensive summary and forecast by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Thanks. Be careful out there. TF

ps Please remember to use the "exit" on your way out. I found this little gem on one of their sites.
The Turd appreciates your business.


  1. Sometimes it's good just looking at the charts:

    The worst is still ahead. A tumble below the 50-day EMA will trigger fresh waves of selling. The precious metal slide is gaining speed even as the dollar weakens, suggesting that gold and silver are in the midst of a genuine correction that will take weeks or months to complete.

    More here:

  2. Buckle up, PM Fix coming soon ...

  3. Turd,

    Let me be the first to say "thank you" for all you do. I, for one, appreciate the candor and the emotion.

    I've been giving this ChiCom theory a great deal of thought recently. Hard not to when it comes from somebody like Ted Butler.

    Do you suppose they're shorting paper and suppressing the price in order to get some of the remaining physical into the hands of our citizens?

    I'm sure China is looking at a near-term future of the US as a third-world military "Superpower" with nukes. Ouch. They also know we have a well-armed citizenry. With a few ounces of silver in our pockets, perhaps it gives us the ammunition we need to stave off hunger and fight back the advances of our oppressive government.

    Wild theory, I know, but January sales at the Mint would support it.

  4. Interesting read on kingworldnews:$28_Should_Hold_on_Silver,_After_Final_Move_Down.html

  5. I like your rants much better than all the RAH, RAH cheering that most folks are getting for investment advice. LOL
    I think we will see a price drop in PMs but it's more of a gut feeling, because of an attack by the EE.
    I'm a buy and hold, so if the price goes down I just buy more OZs. I'll keep plugging away and keep getting Physical!

  6. Go back to sleep everyone; the fundamentals are still excellent; TPTB are playing their little games until reality will bite them in the ass. I fully expect COMEX to implode within 3 months; then "it's to the moon, Alice".

  7. First it was a consortium of Russian and Asian billionaires. Next it was the Asian buyers of size. Now it's the Chinese shorting.


    Here are the things we know for sure:

    1. Global demand for physical has exploded.
    2. Delivery of physical are regularly delayed (Sprott)
    3. Silver coin sales have exploded.

    Now, can anyone tell me when we have experienced such a situation in the metals market in recent history. Now, in light of this what are the chances that a commodity (or money) in such demand will experience a major sell off. I can't see it happening.

  8. The precious metal slide is gaining speed even as the dollar weakens, suggesting that gold and silver are in the midst of a genuine correction that will take weeks or months to complete.

    Turd, this means that you have 'arrived.' You blog is getting posts directly from the EE.

  9. The jig is up. USDX pressures mounting. I expect a hard bounce for the metals soon.

  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

  11. hide its ova red rova....send jimmy ova...oh this is the best game eva. HAS POMO been stopped?? Last time I checked ...NO. Is there a problem with delivery of the actual physical? NOT for us little buyers SO fochin BTDs......BUT just remember if you are all in then you are an investor. If you are a turd says this could get hold some big cash in wait.

  12. Co Dan: "I'm sure China is looking at a near-term future of the US as a third-world military "Superpower" with nukes. Ouch."

    Sad but true.

  13. More $ weakness AND gold/silver weakness sure has piqued my interest...

  14. Did Harvey Organ date his post from last night in error, it reads:
    Wednesday, January 13, 2038

  15. I don't buy the ChiCom theory. We're in a rigged market and we know that even if the chinese were major riggers, it's not like the COMEX is all saints.
    They would have every motive to defend themselves, using position limits or even advising the banks not to accept chinese shorts.
    Given this amount of weaponry and the lack of moral to refrain from using it, why doesn't the Death Star defend itself?

    If the China theory is true, there must be a reason that the Death Star doesn't defend itself. And I want to know it before buying it! :)

    And I don't see a major sell-off, maybe futures go down in price, but spot silver will hold given the strong demand. Maybe we're about to witness the decoupling between paper and physical markets. If I had to guess what such a market rupture would look like, take a close look at yesterday and today... See my last post in the comments of your last article for explanation.

    Ahh and besides, the RRR hike is nothing. There wasn't even a big response to the last interest rate hike by China, so why would there be such a strong response now?

  16. One last thing: The train to fight inflation is long gone as all current news confirm, China is now chasing its inflation with its stupid RRR moves that are most probably made for CNBC pundits to have something to talk the PMs down.

    Hold firm, it's so bizarre, it can't last long!

  17. A lesson about fear:

  18. By knocking price down, Blythe is effectively handing rope to a lynch mob -- one that is ready to Stand for Delivery and blackmail her in March.

    It doesn't make sense.

  19. Turd, don't worry about the emotion. It's what makes your stuff special. I like it because I get pissed at these manufactured CRIMEX selloffs too. otoh, this selloff let me pick more oz of silver on the cheap.

    On the demand for physical. My mint's Order-to-Delivery time has doubled in the last two months. Talked to them yesterday. Buyers to Sellers are 10:1. Sellers are not selling in size. Availability of .999 from the refiners is the bottleneck -- and this mint has contracts with two NYSE-listed silver miners.

    BLUF: Focus on the physical market. Use Bankster-manufactured selloff to load up on physical and increase your positions in the miners.

  20. Turd, many thanks for all your hard work. I have closed out my pm positions and will keep following your work to look for a nice buy opportunity in the future.

    Thanks again.

  21. Turd,

    I appreciate your emotion, your hand-drawn charts and your enthusiasm. They're what keep me coming back -- they're how I know you're real.

    Thank you for sharing your thoughts and feelings with us.


  22. how come stocks are green and commodities are getting killed across the board?

  23. First post here, love this place!

    Hearing all the stories about difficulties in buying silver lately.
    Bought more last week at CMI and also listen to the head of it on King World...they aren't having delays in delivering. I can attest to that.

  24. In spite of the weakness, I think the evil empire is playing a dangerous game, The upside could be pretty violent.

  25. this is jim roger's view. i respect his opinion as it is often accurate in my experience.

  26. I've been thinking the same thing for a few days dd- yet in the last 48 hours gold is down 35$ and silver down 1.50$ as I type. If somebody passes gas in Europe and the dollar turns around, PMs will be hammered even more.

    In cash and waiting...

  27. From Harvey last night: "Hold on to your hats as tomorrow will be an extremely violent day pitting massive buyers like the sovereign wealth funds against the sellers, the banks."

    Spot on, as usual.

  28. Pining for the Fjords: You are absolutely right, a pop in the dollar will set us up for a nasty beating, but I keep going back to the fundamentals in the physical world and ask myself how far can the paper market stretch away from the physical world. Perhaps Turd has some input on this.

  29. Does anyone have access to a historical chart of price spread between paper and physical?

  30. It's amazing seeing gold climb the "wall of worry" that I hear so much about. Top callers are always out in force on every drop in gold and silver. This is supposed to be a bullish indicator, meaning that we won't be getting into the frothy stage until everybody is calling the bottom rather than the top. "Gold can't go any lower analyst says."

    To anyone who was investing during the dot com heyday, did that bubble start out "climbing a wall of worry" as well? Just wondering if it's normal for an eventual bubble to be formed around an asset that is at first constantly being denigrated and spat upon by the mainstream analysts.

  31. Silver to 90usd in 2011.
    Strange,word verification...sellyt!

  32. I mentioned earlier that I thought 28.50 would break.
    Watch 28 VERY closely.
    Will update soon.

  33. [ a pop in the dollar will set us up for a nasty beating,] Just what I said yesterday. It will come, if for no reason than cover for the banksters. I'm looking to cover my GLD,SLV shorts @ 1320. I don't think this will be dragged out as some here suggest. Too much fundamental demand. Make sure you're in (long)before we turn up. Miners will explode.

  34. So many people are calling for silver to drop to 25 or lower.

    Where were they earlier in the week when we had a little run?

    It is discouraging and the EE is playing mental games. Have the fundamentals changed? Nope.

    I am fighting this mental angst as much as the rest of you and holding on for the ride up in Feb/March!

  35. Ok.Throw more paper,cover the sun.
    So nice,we will fight in the shade.
    This is SILVER.

  36. The predictions about a silver gold take down in Jan followed by a big silver buy in Feb match the action to date.


  37. I know I speak for many Turd when I ask you not to change a thing. We love your passion, your emotion, all your little Turdisms. We don't expect a perfect Turd or an omniscient Turd. While there are many excellent "posters" in the comments section, they are not the reason for the popularity of this blog; you are. I, for one, respect the hell out of your knowledge and delight in the fact that you so generously share it. That you do so in such an entertaining manner is a marvelous bonus.

  38. CNBS Headline:

    Gold Falls Below $1,360 as Dollar Recovers

    Applause sign lights up behind the camera.

  39. Last time this happened, silver bounced off $28.00 almost to the penny and then went back above $30.00. Twenty eight bux is the line in the sand for now.

  40. Keep up the good work, Turd! You have great posts that I look forward to reading!

  41. Thanks, all, for your kind words.
    Please refresh your screen as I have added an update to this note that needs to be read.

  42. ...and that fucking corrupt fucking midget Gary Gensler...

  43. dd: Isn't that funny?
    I felt compelled to post on ZH that I am NOT Vincent McCrudden.

  44. Turd: the "midget" comment made my day!

  45. Its 1:40 and silver just dropped about 10 cents.

  46. Time to back the truck up then!

    Turd, thank you for your continued posting. Along with Harvey & WB7, you rank as one of today's legends!

  47. Silver seems to be up for the moment at 1:54PM.

    Maybe Blythe and the Monkeys are on a bathroom break They could be all together planing to put the PM's in the shitter for the weekend.....

  48. Might close at 28.50 for the weekend.

  49. today updating clients that AGAIN (Second time in as many weeks) their deliveries of 1000oz Silver bars from the LBMA have been unexpectedly delayed.

    There is smoke pouring from the physical markets all over the world and we're supposed to believe that prices should be falling because of the Chinese rate hike? Ha!


  51. I need SLV to close below 27.50 before I start to think about going long again in the paper market or adding to my physical stash. Until then, I'm happy to wait on the sidelines.

  52. 'Time to back the truck up then!'

    Oh not yet it isn't! Keep yer powder dry. The market (not the EE) ain't done here by a long shot. Prepare for it to go below $28, and gold will get hammered too. Both are DUE for the correction. $28 and $1360 is a SPEED BUMP compared to the short term correction we're about to see. Silver and gold are gonna go up this year, but we're about to have a good, healthy correction. The long term bull market is intact, and will stay that way even if we see $25 silver and $1255 gold. God, I hope we see gold at that price, my truck is sitting in the drive way already in reverse.

    Check out this seasonal price average chart and realize what we're about to see:

    Chinese new year is coming up first week of Feb. We typically see gold (and silver) correct from then on through April, bottoming in March. The EE is simply trying to speed up this seasonal correction NOW instead of waiting 3-4 more weeks.

    Let 'em. Keep your powder dry. Price is going lower, even if we stay stable TODAY through NEXT WEEK. Once it goes lower, silver to around $25-26, gold to around $1250-$1300, THEN YOU BACK UP THE TRUCK. As you can see, we got a while to go yet. Wake me up when gold hits $1300. Or silver hits $26.

  53. Dear Silver and Gold Community:

    With all the talk of the abyss mustering up over the past two days, we must remember one thing. The people who are engineering the silver price are unfortunately... very smart.

    That does not mean that they are smart enough to outwit 7 billion potential people... but it should give you some things to reflect on.

    What is the one thing that the price of silver is trying to control. The price of the perception? Well if it was the price we surely would never have made it to the 30s so quickly.

    As posted above, my favorite explanations about what the current "vibe" is come from "dd." He is completely right when he talks about this is all just TALK.

    They cannot break silver's fundamentals through manipulation alone, they need all this negative talk of it going down to the abyss. Let's review how the price of silver has been suppressed over the past 6 months (to my knowledge at least)

    1) Increased Margin Calls: Twice within one week knocking it from 29.25 to 25.00. It was 30$ a month later.

    2) Pre-market Raids/Aftermarket Raids. This is the cheapest of all shots since there is nobody to trade against the huge pressure of downward price movement. This is a desperate move that will not last for months, much less years....

    3) During the market shorts to create lower lows for the algos to have a field day with....

    Now that we have those basic things covered, I employ you to ask if any of those have any long term sustainability in suppressing silver? The price of Physical is what you should be giving respect to when answering this.

    My point is that they attacked after the markets yesterday to everyone's surprise along with during the markets today and yesterday (its easy to hide suppression within normal trading activity's "volatility").

    Now here comes the big crash to 26.50, 25, 20, 18, 10 ... whatever you want to fill your head with to live in paranoia.... but wait its not coming in the afterhours. Could it be that the bankers are always staying ONE step ahead of the market, and not trying to expose their TREASONOUS behavior?

    The more nonsense people keep talking about this dip will self-perpetuate this debt on RUMORS alone. Do your own research and get comfortable with the fact in 2 months none of these worries will be of any importance to you. Get out of the now and look bigger picture damn you all!
    Visit my blog where I talk about my personal mining portfolio and try to expose the criminal elite @

    P.S. - I have a solution, its called Limited government and constitutional government. Ron Paul is the man to lead us to this....
    Scott J

  54. Could this be the canary in the coal mine that sent everyone running? CFTC position limits do not apply to JPM. This announcement yesterday coincided directly with silver going off a cliff.

  55. We are witnessing the bottom form in gold and silver. USDX is heading to new lows and will most likely close the week sub 79. Silver has already corrected 10% from its high at the beginning of the year. Can someone point out a time in recent history when the market has sold off 10, 20 or 30% in light of physical shortages and mass global demand? Anyone? Metals are not going any lower.

  56. I firmly suggest you implant one notion and one notion only at the very forefront of your Lobe.
    The games being played are merely the day to day "price"; the core value doesn't change. No matter the swings, the only thing that counts long-term is the number of ounces of silver or gold you hold ( and increase ).
    PM's hold value as fiats fluctuate daily, but trend down down down.

  57. And change your article title for peace of mind...
    That was Zen, This is Tao

  58. @wingman: Maybe JPM itself was emboldened by the CFTC lack of decision and took it as a green light to hammer the markets. Did you see their profit was up something like 46%? More and more I keep coming back to the conclusion that regulation is not the answer. There may be a few decent regulators like Chilton but by and large they are all scumsuckers who pass regulations engineered to keep the average company/person out of the game while making it easier for the big players to continue raping and pillaging. "Bona fide hedger" is just another way of saying, "entity above the law."

    There's no relief to be found in the so-called law for this mess. The free markets will sort it out in time, with or without the help of those claiming to have our best interests in mind.