Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Feeling Good, Louis!


We all should feel very good about today's action. Its been a while since we had a pretty, little FUBM painted onto the intraday chart but we got one today. Please take a moment to behold:
Remember, the FUBM is a very strong technical indicator as it shows an EE takedown that, when it reaches a certain point, is met with significant buying. This is very real...and very positive given all the pain, suffering and sold-into rallies of the past three weeks. Of equal importance, both crude and copper had nice days and both are back above what could have been strong resistance. Crude is back above $87 and now needs to follow through and get back above 88. Copper is even better as it bested 423 and 425 and now just needs to hold its ground and grind higher.

I must ask you to take a moment to review this before we move on. I'm not looking for a pat-on-the-back or an atta-boy. I simply want you to keep our current position in its proper perspective. Almost everything we discussed last week has come to pass:
So the question is: What happens next? The answers can be found in these two charts.
We've set nice bottoms right where we wanted them at 1322 and 26.55. Are we finished? Is that it? I believe you'll have your answer very soon. As written on the charts, if silver can now get UP and away, through the rebound highs of last night, and trade near 27.60 tonight and tomorrow, my confidence will grow that the worst is over and we can buy with impunity. Not surprisingly, gold looks the same. If we can soon clear last night's highs and move toward 1345, we'll be in good shape. The next 24 hours are important and they will either create a virtuous cycle of new longs and short-covering and more new longs and more short-covering or momentum will fade and we'll move back down to a re-test of the lows. Let's hope its the former.

One last thing, the HUI is very strong today. Its above 510 and about 20 points off its lows from yesterday. This is very important as its been my experience at tops and bottoms that the mining shares tend to lead the bullion by about 24-48 hours.

Keep the faith. All is well. Let's keep it rolling. TF

ps Found out today that your favorite Turd has, once again, been asked to grace the airwaves of CNBS for a segment in February. DO NOT expect me to give you a date and time as I enjoy my anonymity too greatly. I will, however, try to drop a few clues while on air. Maybe I'll simply wear my big yellow hat. Nah...ole A-cups and the FOAD probably wouldn't appreciate it.

Well, isn't this fun? The Turd lives for days like this. We called a bottom about a week in advance and its worked almost far.
The FOMC minutes could not have been timed any better to help our cause. To the amazement of the uninformed, The Ben Bernank announced that QE will continue until further notice. How this comes as a surprise to anyone who is even remotely paying attention is beyond me. This is why you must ignore the top-callers that populate the MSM and, unfortunately, ZH. They are utterly clueless, status quo-pushing morons. For all the reasons mentioned here ad nauseam, QE will never end because it can't. Period. End of story. BTFD.
The minutes have given everything a solid push up.
Crude is back to $87.73. Sweet.
Copper is 428.55. Refer to the note above to see how important that is.
The USDX looks primed to succumb to its lousy chart.
The HUI closed up almost 4% and is pushing the old 520 mark again. Two, consecutive closes above 520 and you can feel very confident that the lows have been reached in the miners, too.
And, most importantly, the PMs have surged to near the levels needed to stave off a re-test of the lows. Again, I listed above that we needed a short-term move in gold to near 1345 and then 1350. I have a last of 1344. Silver needed to best 27.40 and then 27.80. I have a last of 27.64. (The Turd smiles.)
Soon, we will enter that virtuous cycle pattern of courageous new longs and scaredy-cat squeezed shorts.
I'll check back in later this evening. For now, savor this feeling. It comes far too infrequently. TF

And one more thing, I can assure you that Trader Dan are not one and the same. Separated at birth, maybe, but we are not the same person. You might think that after reading this:


  1. Thank you for all you do Turd!

  2. its time to CELEBrate, BOOBS needed ITB (in the blog)

  3. Turd, you're just too fucking cool...

  4. Hi Turd,

    New reader here with a question:

    Shouldn't the S&P and Dow have to tank before the PMs hit their true bottom?


  5. So far so good turd......ANV looks like its exploding....and its not silver.....SLW picking up volume and price now ooooooooboy

  6. Report from the Front - Part 2

    Yesterday I was telling the gang about how my fav coin shop is pretty well cleaned out of physical, so I thought I'd go to another for a second opinion.

    This place is not my favorite. Doesn't really deal in the kind of gold I like, and his buy sell prices are a tad out of whack, but they do a high volume business and it's still a good indicator of what's going on on the street, at least on the silver side. Came up with two useful observations.

    My impression has been that this place always was good about having Silver Eagles in stock. Today the guy told me "au contraire mon frere". They have just spent the last 10 days completely sold out of Eagles, and just got a new shipment of 2011's today. Read into that what you will.

    Secondly, I like to watch what he has in his box of other silver rounds and bars to kind of read the market by. Today he had an average amount of stuff there, probably 300 oz or more, but it was all crap. Usually I can go in there and cherry pick some nice Prospectors or something but today it was all Merry Christmas, Happy Father's Day and the like. Junk, Junk, Junk. Either some other cherry pickers beat me to it, and/or as my gut tells me, nobody but nobody is walking in off the street right now unloading a nice tube of Engelhards or Johnson Mattheys.

    There you have it. I have one more shop I can check next week, but by then the bottom will be in!

  7. Seems the markets were waiting on the FOMC news before starting to climb out of the hole. Keep those rates low, print that moolah and raise the debt ceiling, doesn't bother me one bit. "To infinity, and beyond!!"

  8. Could someone tell me what FUBM means? (sort of new here)
    I suspect it is "F*ck you Blyth M"...


  9. Wow, my SLW is in lift off mode. Would not have bought it over the last few days without the support of all my buds here at Turd's Blog. Thx.

  10. insight-- yes, you got it.

    It's a technical term....

  11. So here it is in a nutshell.

    Is Blythe Masters more powerful than 3-6 month delays on delivery? Is she more powerful than near all-time tightness in the physical market? Is Blythe Masters stronger than new uses for silver being discovered almost continuously?

    If she is, we lose. If not, we win. I don't think Blythe Masters is that powerful, but if she is, and we don't buy silver, we're screwed anyway.

    Mr. Nash, I'm calling a strictly dominant strategy.

  12. Buy Yamana Gold (AUY) here, it's a steal!

  13. And by the way...get your 2011 eagles tested for their silver content. If they fail, get the word out, and the word will get out, and the EE defaults and we win.

  14. VS-
    Sorry, I don't see that happening. Would be the scandal of the century, so far...

    But then, nothing surprises me anymore.

  15. Holy balls man, it's been while since I looked at metal charts and wanted to cheer them on with foam finger!

  16. Hi Turd,

    Longtime lurker, first time poster :). I am glad I followed you here from ZH. I got on this PM train back in 2008 and in for long term. Your simplistic approach based on fundos is fantastic.

    I have went back and read most of your blogs all the way and stumbled upon your small list of PM stocks. Is it a good time to load up for mid-term on EXK and TRE?

    Thank you

  17. Yes a HAT on CNBS, with "FUBM" will do it :).

  18. Please, please, please... I hate to beg, but do you have any long out-of-money call recommendations for us?

  19. Jim Willie: China Plays Europe Card

  20. Congrats Turd, 2x retest 26.6 Opex over no momentum fade this time me thinks

  21. This morning we were discussing how awesome the KWN Weekly Metals Market Wrap is. Recently on a bored Saturday night I went into the archives on the site and listened to about 2-3 months worth of the Weekly's back to back. Pretty much all of it is just as timely now as it was then.

    So if you have no other life to speak of, there you go.

  22. Exk and Tre are good buys on any dips

    For fun, look into calls on AGQ

  23. We can thank the Fed helping put in the floor. Hopefully it won't give way.

  24. My...greed sure replaces fear pretty quickly...;)

  25. Hey Ian,

    Did you ever take the plunge on those Buffalos? Hope so.

  26. I asked earlier about whether I should have jumped in or if I missed B’ingTFD, but I was in the wrong blog post I guess. Just found your note here while reading through. I have not bought in yet…have the cash with me here at work and have been watching the charts all day…looked flat and then just noticed things have really taken off. Have I missed out? I will leave work early and drive over to GVille Coins to try and jump in if this is the blast off you guys have been anticipating. Whadya think? This monopoly money is burnin’ a hole in my heavy backpack but I wanna make it much heavier!

  27. Ian: You could probably buy a few but, by all means, don't go all in yet.

  28. Turd, a word of thanks for providing an environment where fallible human beings (like myself), traders, investors, and prospective investors of all stripes can share information, ask questions, and gain knowledge without fear of being ridiculed or flamed. Great chart work and analysis aside, you're filling a glaring void and providing a tremendous service to the gold community my friend.

    And all this from a guy with a 10 gallon hat on a 5 gallon head. Muchísimas Turd!


  29. Ian-

    Well, I'm guessing you have remorse already for not buying yesterday, so I would just get it done with already. You'll feel great once you get that monkey off your back. Other wise men on this blog think there will be another test of this bottom. Advice here is worth every penny you pay for it, so take your pick.

    Trust me, on any medium to long term time frame, you haven't missed anything, and I would happily shout from the rooftop than Ian nailed this dip to a tee.

    If you are looking to flip these coins next week or next month, then you shouldn't be buying physical in the first place. That's what junior mining stocks are for.

  30. Thanks Mr. Turd. I just called GVille Coins and they close at 5pm, so it looks like I won't be able to get over there tonight. Hope I didn't miss out. Maybe it'll go back down over night? Still not sure what I'll purchase...They said the Buffaloes are out and that I could lock in the price w/ cash and they would be delivered Feb. 4th. Not bad. They currently have Eagles for 2.90 over spot. I have 7000 in monopoly FRN's cash right now, so I was thinking of getting some of each up to that amount if possible.

  31. Makes me happy as I bought some physical locked in at yesterday's price. Now if all you traders would just stop fooling around with paper to buy and hold physical, we could cut to the chase...

  32. Silver closing in on +$1.00 in four hours. Impressively steady climb...

  33. Amazingly strong stock market close... The rest of the week will be telling.

  34. Eric...

    nope, I'm definitely looking to hold onto any physical I buy for the long term. I guess I'm not too worried about missing out on the very bottom today if that's what it really was. I'm sure if I buy a little high and it dips again it won't be a big deal and then will far surpass what I bought in at. But since I'm not looking to flip it any time soon it won't matter.
    I will keep you guys updated. I do appreciate the Turd and all who follow on here. Great info just like on Zero Hedge (my other favorite site).

  35. Congrats ALL...special thanks to Turd....we can take him off suicide watch...(for now)...FWIW ...6mo avg vol on SLW was almost double today.....its hard to argue

  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

  37. Ian-

    A wise, veteran trader might buy half now, half later. Unfortunately I'm not that wise. I usually want short term gratification, which usually means just going ahead and buying it. And once it's bought, and sitting in the pile with the rest of it, I never seem to regret it, and never seem to dwell on whatever price I paid.

    I thought you said you had no silver at all yet, and have had this cash ready to go for quite a long time already. If it was me I'd just be going insane wanting to finally unload this fiat before silver got any higher (again).

    Good Luck whatever you do.

  38. I believe gold, silver and related stocks are about to diverge from general equities. The RSI for the DOW is at a 3+ year high around 80, and gold / silver stocks clearly bounced off their bottom. Basically short SPX and long GDX should be the trade at some point soon.

  39. Turd, sent ya an email to, ghope you recieved it.

    And what do you mean 'calls on AGQ'? AGQ as in the x2 leveraged ProShares Ultra Silver ETF?

    Silver has taken off. Good thing I invested in a couple of miners, my returns from this bounce are around the 7%! Good day indeed, and the Turd has been proven correct. As we speak (or as I write) silver is at $27.57.

  40. Just before the close I picked up a tiny slice of DOG. The chance to short the Dow at 12,000 just seemed to good to be true. Which means it probably is, and I'm due for a monkeyhammering shortly.

  41. tx: yes, that's what I mean. I assume you can buy calls on it but I never have so I can't say for sure.

  42. Turd happy.
    Turd smiling.
    Turd going to get a beer.

  43. Sweeet!

    added more:
    Minefinders Corp.(USA) (Public, AMEX:MFN)
    Almaden Minerals (USA)(Public, AMEX:AAU)
    Rubicon Minerals (USA) Public, AMEX:RBY)


  44. Shorts squeezing it out of their shorts now.

  45. Turd, so you're looking for a consolidation above 28 on silver before going "all in?"

    Calls can be bought on AGQ. I've been looking at them casually, because I haven't watched this one in the past. The calls are much more thinly traded than calls on SLV, but I believe you get much more leverage with AGQ, so maybe you don't need as many.

  46. Anyone more than me noticing this possibility?

  47. Eric...

    yeah, I've been patient for long enough, so I'm ready to pull the trigger. I wish I would have done this at lunch time! The inactivity lulled me to sleep most of the day, and by the time it started to jump it was too late for me to react. No biggee. I know I won't have any regrets when I get it tomorrow at whatever it's at. You're correct, this will be my first silver purchase. I only have a little physical gold...a 10oz bar I picked up for 1062/oz over a year ago. Def. glad I did that...only wish I had had more Bernanky-Bucks back then to get more. But now I want to use what I have on silver. You guys think I should get one Gold Eagle and use the rest on the Silver? Or just go silver all the way?

  48. Is it time to get greedy with silver?

  49. For anyone interested in AGQ, the prospectus says it aims for a 200% move relative to the move of silver bullion. So let's say you expect a 20% move in silver bullion, that would mean a 40% move in AGQ. It's much much more volatile but the nice part is you can save on trading fees if you're looking to establish a larger position.

    The big difference is in the structure. AGQ doesn't hold any physical silver but instead holds "financial instruments," probably futures and options. Many would argue SLV doesn't hold any physical either, but going off the prospectuses that's the difference.

    AGQ is a short-term play since they could get caught up in contango, so keep that in mind.

  50. I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the fact that today was Options Expiry. I wonder if that was why we finally got a lift in the second half of today.

  51. Ian,

    We're all bullish on metals, and for good reason as Turd often points out. If you are looking to take physical possession for the long haul as an inflation hedge (the best reason to buy physical these days), then the price won't matter - we know that even a 20% correction will be relatively short-lived because of the state of world fiat economics.

    Most of us here would suggest buying physical for the long-term, then trading mining stocks, metals ETFs, etc., to make more money to drop into physical. To buy physical to trade in the short/intermediate term is really not the best strategy, as you'll pay a significant premium in % terms (especially for bullion coins) that could be better used by investing it (that said, don't fret over the premium for long physical paid to reputable dealers - you want them to stay in business).

    I would personally encourage you, as has Turd, NOT to go all-in with your 7K FRNs. I think you will most likely get a better opportunity mid-year. I have a VERY bad feeling about the banking situation in Europe, and I fully expect a credit unraveling there later this year to approximate that of the US in 2008. When this happens, we will see a significant drop in prices across the board as we see a significant upswing in the US dollar as the Euro implodes. If these things happen concurrently with interest rate hikes in China or any of a number of issues, there could very well be a panic sell-off worldwide. But don't expect $10 silver again - the next flight will not be only to Treasurys as before, but to Treasurys and commodities, especially PMs. I expect a drop to the higher side of the range of about $18 to $22, followed by a steady rise that will not stop for a LONG time.

    If I get my hoped-for drop, I'm going all-in with every cent I can find; if I don't get it, I'll be happy to be wrong and not be going into a winter with Europe in the crapper and commodity prices skyrocketing for them. I don't care that much for Europe, but that's just asking for a war the US will not be willing to refuse.

    Anyway, all that to say "be cautious". Split your savings and get in now and later. It won't hurt to have it now, but you may get a better opportunity later, that's all.

  52. SLV and AGQ hold silver contracts, not silver proper.

    If anything, SLV just 'rents' bullion from other people and gives it to JPMorgan to hold for them.

    Main difference is the leverage. AGQ is X% loan, Y% equity in each of their paper contracts, so that the return is is always 200% of spot price movement.

    If you want better gains, I'd say go for miners. AGQ is apparently for day trading, not for holding. Something to do with taxes and whatnot..

  53. Sitting on my hands, trying hard not to pull trigger. Waiting for a test of 1335, higher low, and then BTFD!

  54. Ian,
    Don't sweat not making your purchase today. I watched silver for about a 3 weeks and constantly went back and forth before finally throwing money at it(also through Gville). I got in at $24.10(spot) after missing out on when it was cheaper and thought maybe I bought too high. I feel that in the not-to-distant future I will be laughing about having been worried about what price I paid when silver was still in the $20's.

    For those miner-seekers, I haven't started dabbling into that side yet, but I did come across this thread I figured I'd share. This "Bag Of Gold" guy seems like he may be the "Turd" of the penny-miners. Pretty interesting if you skim through and see how pleased people have been with his recommendations and the returns they've gotten.

  55. Will we see a re-test of 25.50 this week or is that in the distant past?

  56. Way to go Turd. I read your blog all the time. I truly appreciate you and your thoughts. Wish I could add more technical stuff? Sorry.
    I get the message though. PM's not paper.

  57. daraconn: Maybe...but its getting less likely with each UPtick.

  58. Thanks James,

    All great advice from this site. My 7G Bernanks are about 30% of what I have liquid right now, so your advice coincides w/ my thoughts in that I was going to take about a thrid of what I had and buy in PM's for the long haul. I'm well stocked up on food storage (about 9 months worth and adding to all the time), and have bought all the guns and ammo a small island nation could ever want (haha). Now I figured it was time to buy more PM's to hedge inflation for when all hell breaks loose! haha
    Hey, if anyone is on Twitter and wants to follow me just look up my account: Save_America1st
    Always like to meet new like-minded real people on-line, haha

  59. As to recognizing you in CNBS ... I'll recognize you by the introduction. "Our guest tonight is the Genius-Level Bottom Caller, Mr. dadada dadada. Tell us Mr. dadada, how did you do it?" ... :-)

    My sincere thanks for all the time & effort you put into this blog.

  60. You'll also recognize me by all the drooling and stammering young Ms Drury does when she interviews me. It gets rather embarrassing.

  61. TX, no SLV does not hold silver contracts in the sense of futures contracts, nor options. And JPMorgan does not hold the silver. It's held by Blackrock. Supposedly JPMorgan has no access to the silver held by the trust, though they are an authorized participant and as such can exchange shares of SLV for silver bullion when the NAV gets out of whack with share price. Whether the silver held is unencumbered is a legitimate question. If you want to believe the whole thing is a fraud that's fine, I can't prove it isn't, but neither can you prove it is. I wouldn't recommend buying and holding it as an alternative to purchasing physical, but as a trading vehicle it's fine.

    SLV is taxed as a collectible whereas AGQ I believe falls under normal rules.

  62. Throwing caution to the wind, I'm reloading with PM mining mutual funds tonight. I think the announcement of QEforever will send the market shooting straight up (it certainly did today in my high risk stock fund), carrying the PMs with them. I could wait a couple of weeks, but I think it's a good chance that the pent-up demand will explode the PMs up immediately.

    And Turd, I agree that QEforever was a foregone conclusion, but hearing it officially creates a clear "risk-on" signal to buy everything that isn't nailed down or wagging it's tail while the Fed backstops every trade.

    P.S. I'll pitch in for an "FUBM" baseball cap for your TV appearance!

  63. Hey Ian,
    Whether to get a gold eagle too or just get all silver on this buy is totally a personal decision. There's no right answer. If you were to go all silver, that would put you about 2 parts gold to 1 part silver. No idea if that's right or wrong, but that's about where I'm at, FWIW.

    I think yesterday you were also asking about 90% coin. Bottom line is it's all fine. Buffalos are fine (delivery next week is fine), Eagles are fine, 90% coin is fine. You'll get competitive pricing at Gville whichever way you go, so why not some of each? That way you have more variety to look at if you are so inclined.

    The really nice thing about 90% coin is that it's already as scratched, worn, and tarnished as it's ever going to get. You can handle it with impunity, if you are so inclined.

    On an up day like this it's especially fun to lay it out on the floor and roll around in it. HA HA, just kidding. Sort of.... ;)

  64. Ahhhh...what a great spirit is lifted!

  65. Ian, one more thing

    I reread a bit above and see you are all stocked up on food, guns, and ammo.

    Now I want to tread carefully here, I know it's unfair to stereotype, and mean no disrespect to anyone on this blog, but generally the perception is that the food and guns guys are the ones very much in favor of the 90% coin. You know, the whole hunkered down in the bunker, only venturing outside to barter for stuff with your silver dimes thing.

    C'mon guys, we've all thought about it. Admit it.

  66. Bit of an early call for a bottom as the flood of newbies jumping in pre-maturely on a solid day of buying will need to be flushed out before the actual rise. Only a week or so to go lads.. dont stress if you havent (re)stocked up on physical. The best is still to come.

  67. Turd,

    Can you please please please try and get th ephrase "End of the Keynesian experiment" into your interview?

  68. Not entirely convinced this is over just yet. If the EE is looking to break some spirits they may try to attack again.

    Have placed some orders to gradually build back into some junior silver and gold miners.

  69. Oooh, that might be fun.
    Or maybe I'll use some other code phrase like "tuna fish sandwich".

  70. I sincerely hope so.. This spike-up at least confirms that, at some point, it wants to fly out again.. So please fear viscious Blythe, do us again! And again.. Anyone ever used (Switzerland)?

  71. I have been looking to purchase more physical since the new year and recently found your blog. Your observations confirmed mine and today's FOMC statement sealed the deal. Today, I made my first significant PM purchase since 2/05/10 and am hoping for a similar result. Thanks Turd!

  72. Forgot to mention... nice video clip and the movie is great. But, sometimes, lately, I feel like I am living Atlas Shrugged meets Trading Places...

    I can see POTUS after the state dinner.... "Who's been putting out Kool's on my carpet?!"

  73. Always have to be interested if events happen not just as individual events but as a confluence.

    Too many things happening in temporal association for this to be a coincidence.

    Huge drop in gold OI - check
    Rumors of hedge funds accumulating silver contracts to bust COMEX -- check
    Brisk $1 rise in silver on a day NOBODY thought silver would go up (Fed meeting etc) - check

    Are they (the Big Boyz) selling gold and buying silver????

    Has liftoff commenced???

    HMMMMM... next 24-48 hours will be interesting.

    Any thoughts Turd, or are you stuffing your face with a tuna fish sandwich?

  74. Eric...

    well I'm not that bad...(yet) haha. Not hunkered or bunkered, but over the last 3 years I've definitely realized I better prepare for the possibility this country could collapse and fall into some ugly chaos if things keep going the way they are. I'm 39, single, no kids, and luckily still gainfully employed w/ little debt other than a small Florida condo that's now worth 1/4 of what I paid for it. Don't get me started on Countrywide/BofA/Fannie-Freddie cuz I'm in one of those fraudulent mortgage situations...oh well.
    So right now since I don't spend my Bernankies on anything else but the bare minimums (beer/booze/bitchez not withstanding) I can afford to spend now to prepare for a day when our Bernankies and country come to the brink of total collapse...and if it doesn't, then no harm, no foul. I have food, guns, and PM's...that can't be all bad, right? lol
    I like reading everyone on ZH and on here because I've learned a TON of what's really going on and how to hopefully survive the worst (with an AR-15 by my side, haha) from sites like these.
    Sorry I'm all questions though...would like to be able to contribute technically/intelligently on investing and the economy, etc., but I'm not up to that kinda level.
    But I do immensely appreciate all advice/replies, and take this all very seriously and share whatever I learn from all of you w/ friends, family, or whoever else will listen, because there are just way too many sheeple out there who haven't woken up yet.
    Anyways...that's my deal. Thanks mucho to Turd and all for letting me be included in it with you.

  75. Chart showing gold hasn't been as oversold since Aug 2010, just before it moved from 1150 to 1420:

  76. Ian, with 7K in monopoly money I would buy bullion bars. 100oz bars are running at .89 over spot at APMEX

    That way you get the physical without paying the huge premium per ounce and it wont matter if you didnt get the exact bottom.

    I would also look at junk silver. pre-1964 dollars and half dollars, specially the morgans and liberties are very recognizable and liquid.

    I have a morbid attraction to the Kennedy half dollars. With Kennedy trying to pull an old Hickory and getting himself killed.

  77. Turd, thanks for all of your hard work. I hope we are done with this latest correction (I ran out of funbucks). Honestly, do you really expect me to have to watch CNBS for a whole freakin month. Give me something. Trim it down a little. Come on!

  78. G. Gordon Liddy just said on Fox Biz that gold will hit 1700 by the end of the year.

  79. Rey...

    yeah that looks good too. Thanks for the info...cheaper and easier to manage, huh? I may get 1 bar along with the coins, etc.

  80. Thanks for all the info; it is very interesting.

  81. @martijn

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  82. I was telling the gang about how my fav coin shop is pretty well cleaned out of physical,
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