Thursday, January 13, 2011

Dollar Shitcan

Apparently, the entire world was caught by surprise by the latest POMO schedule. Its as if everyone woke up and said "wait a second...you mean they're doing this every month?"

I went searching for a chart of the USDX that would take us back to early November and the formal announcement of QE2. I found it but look what else I found: another umbrella!
You can see several things on this chart. First, the almost two month, 3-point range we've been in. Until and unless we break UP through 82 or DOWN through 79, its all just noise. The current shitcan is only taking us back toward the bottom of the range. Of import, however, is that moves to the bottom have coincided with moves by our PMs to the top of their recent ranges. If I had the ability to overlay the PMs on this chart,  you could clearly see what I mean.

So, obviously, the frustration is that the PMs have been lagging almost everything else in responding to this move down in the USDX. That can only continue for so long as algo-programmed, managed money will eventually make it unwise for Blythe to keep a lid on things at these levels. As you know, I've been waiting all week for a move to 1400+ and 30+. Please go back and review this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/important-week-looms.html
And this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/blythe-wants-crumpets.html
Maybe today's the day? I have a last of 1391 and 29.73. We'll see but if the dollar keeps puking, I'll be right....eventually. For now, watch that USDX. It is your key to the action. At this point, it sure looks like the bottom of the range is in play at 79.20 on the March, which is around 79,  or just below, on the cash. For fun, mentally picture a gold or silver chart if 79 fails to hold......

More later.


10:00 UPDATE:
If I had an explanation for this morning's action, I'd certainly give it to you. Our recent leader, Dr C, is struggling, too, so what can you say?
In the meantime, reader David sent me this long-term chart today. I like it. It certainly looks like we will be rewarded for our patience.


12:10 UPDATE:
The selling in the USDX has really increased as we've gone through the morning and we are approaching the bottom of the range and critical support. Yes, the lack of a PM rally is infuriating/frustrating but this drop in the USDX will, eventually, show up in PM price. Hang in there.

89 comments:

  1. could the dollar also be puking because of the unemployment numbers?

    PMs are surging

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  2. A reminder to all to "Feed the Turd'.

    Awesome work Turd...I have a feeling that once these negative pressure lifts, PMs are set for a rocket ride.

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  3. Thanks, dd.

    George: Yes that certainly has something to do with the acceleration of the decline. On a fundamental reason like that, it only makes it more and more difficult for Blythe to contain things.
    IF we can squarely break resistance, the short-covering and new money will quickly drive PM prices higher. Very quickly.

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  4. I see range bound with BTFD as the only sane policy for me. Click the ads for Mr T!

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  5. USDX tanking, PM's down and my pm stocks dropping hard again..Must be a hard battle to keep it all down today..

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  6. Just a shakeout, should bounce to new highs very soon.

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  7. CFTC hearing live:

    http://www.capitolconnection.net/capcon/cftc/011311/wmlive.htm

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  8. The CFTC hearing MUST have something to do with PM action today. I can't come up with any other reason.

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  9. I'm at a loss to explain the action in PMs.
    All I see is a big FUTF painted by Blythe and the Monkeys.

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  10. CFTC hearing looking like a joke...It appears that real position limits will never be agreed to. What a f&*king joke.

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  11. FUTF, LOL!!!!!!That's the funniest one yet, Turd! jd

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  12. Been watching the CFTC bullshit. Chilton supported position limits, the rest of the "ommissioners" (sic) are opposed and spewing lots of reasons that they don't have to impose them because they can't agree on what is "appropriate". I'm not sure but I think Omissioner Omallea may have flying monkey cufflinks on. Can't quite tell with my old monitor.

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  13. Just wanted to share my most interesting read of the morning:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/dont-worry-theyll-just-change-rules/50568

    Eric

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  14. Weren't position limits put into THE LAW passed by Congress last year???

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  15. USDX is puking because the EUR/USD is surging (Trichet sounded very worried about inflation in today's press conference fuelling speculation of a rate hike)as is GBP/USD (expectations of a UK rate hike too).

    South Korea raised rates 25 bps this morning (was not 100% expected) and this may also be contributing.

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  16. Yes, I suppose you are right daraconn. Makes more sense than about anything else.
    Traders rule the day, I guess. Personally, all I can say is BTFD.

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  17. Also, Harvey was pretty adamant last night that a raid was coming today. That guy sure knows his shit.
    http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

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  18. Turd - yes they were. It was amazing to listen to omissioner Dunn explain why it was that the CFTC does NOT have to impose them. Totally overriding Congress. They just voted 4-1 with (Sommers opposing) to put the 10-25 position limits out to public comment. Gensler was kind enough to mention that they received over 8000 public comments last time they asked for public feedback. Too bad they chose to ignore the VAST majority of comments suggesting a 1500 contract limit.

    It is infuriating to listen to Dunn say they have NO analysis that would allow them to meet the Congressionally appointed deadline of position limits. Ted Butler and hundreds of others have been sending Bart Chilton and Chairman Gensler full analysis of why the 1500 limit makes sense.

    We now have 60 days to comment on the proposed limits. The can has been kicked down the road. SOP have been followed. The charade continues.

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  19. There was also apparently a nice battle going on for a large exotic option that expiried today with a 1.3350 strike in the EUR/USD. The bank won this round.

    A bank also lost today though. Citi shorted EUR/USD yesterday at 1.3105 with a stop at 1.3225. That stop was taken out earlier. I guess they will just get more free money from the Fed so they hardly care

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  20. Turd,

    Since you have worked in the "industry" for over twenty years, I was wondering if you could give your opinions on a few of the "behind the scenes" things on the industry which I would never have a chance to see (I'm a 22 year old...).

    I am also quite interested in fully understanding who makes up the gold and silver trading industry volume? As in, from my understanding around 75% of the stock market's trading is algorithms for private "investment/trading" companies? Is this the same with gold?

    How much can investor demand change the price of gold or silver? I know the silver market is smaller and is approximately only ~~30 Billion dollars while Facebook was valued at ~~50 Billion by Goldman Sachs... Do you have any insight on price moves, as my current thoughts are:

    Most of the time the gold/sivler price is algorithms that go higher highs or lower lows based on certain primary and secondary driver conditions. When there is big news there is an increase in private trader to hold and wait for a run-up, which self-perpetuates the run-up. When it gaps down there is usually a flood of shorts (normally by the EE) and when large gaps up occur, a lot of calls have usually been covered.

    What are your key dynamics to the story that the price of silver and gold outline?

    -
    Scott J

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  21. Every single day PM prices go down between 9:30 and 10 am. Can someone explain this? Why right before 10 am every day?

    The only exception I can think of was the Monday after Christmas when the London markets were closed. Does anyone know where/how I can view short term price movement on a long-term scale? I'd love to see both the 8 am - 10 am daily movements charted, as well as the 9:30-10am.

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  22. As infuriating as it is to have previous public comments apparently cast aside, in the end analysis, it is really our only remaining good option as citizens.

    If the CFTC received 8000 comments last time, the vast majority of which suggested the 1500 contract limit, well, then perhaps we should set a goal that they receive 800,000 comments this time.

    I think it is in our best interest to do our best to make this happen.

    Ted Butler penned a sample letter last time that just needed cutting and pasting. Perhaps he will do that again, or perhaps Turd or someone here can put something like that together.

    Regardless, I think we should attempt to get AS MANY citizens as possible to repsond in the next 60 days.

    The Internet is particularly useful in organizing this - blogs like this, Zero Hedge, Harvery, Franklin Sanders, even Facebook.

    At least we will know that we said our piece, and fought the good fight.

    I for one intend to compose a long reply reminding the CFTC of the abrogation of their duties under the LAW.

    And I will send it as a copy to my Senators and Congressman, as well as to Rand and Ron Paul, and any other potentially sympathetic politician.

    DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the power of the public responding in a written manner.

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  23. Mark: Your questions was just discussed earlier today here:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/morning-gold-fix-january-13

    ReplyDelete
  24. I know there's been a lot of speculation about SLV and whether it's fraudulent. I came across this post on yahoo finance from someone who claims to have interviewed the SLV Trust Specialist. It's too long to post in its entirety but I think it's worth reading if you're like me and want to know whether it's a legitimate trading vehicle or not.

    -- begin quote --

    ANSWER: The last physical audit was done on July the 7th, 2010 by Bank Of NY Mellon in ALL 5 Vaults.

    ANSWER: SLV iShares Silver Trust “ BLACKROCK “ has NOTHING to do with anything JPM has going on at this time. JPM and SLV iShares Silver Trust “ BLACKROCK “ are not related in any way. BLACKROCK has JPM listed as “ The Custodian “ and NY Bank Of Mellon listed as “The Trustee”. Any issues or further issues JPM has/will have are not in any way affiliated with the SLV iShares Silver Trust “ BLACKROCK”.


    ANSWER: SLV iShares Silver Trust “ BLACKROCK “ physical Silver can not be “Borrowed or Leased” to any entity. The physical Silver in the trust is stored in 5 vaults around London and are the SOLE PROPERTY Of The SLV Shareholders.
    -- end quote --

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_I/threadview?bn=29797&tid=57494&mid=57494

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  25. Cris: Keep up the good fight! We need you on the front lines!

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  26. [ All I see is a big FUTF painted by Blythe] Glad you said it, because I was going to...all's fair in love and war...the true price will, in time show up...right now it's a guessing game...play what is handed to us..

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  27. Turd: Regarding Harvey's comments about a raid on gold, maybe he's right and Dennis Gartman does "know things" ahead of time. A raid on gold would jive nicely with the scenario that called for that event followed by a raid on the comex shortly thereafter.

    I wonder what constitutes a "raid" in the gold market. Harvey often says that gold withstood a raid. When he says that does he mean that open interest and thus shorts increased a lot but the price didn't go down much?

    In other words, does the price necessarily have to go down by a large percentage in order for it to be considered a raid?

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  28. USDX doing a swan dive. Just you wait...PMs are about to give us a nice FUBM.

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  29. Scott: I think you've got a pretty good handle on it already. It s great to see a 22-year old have such interest and insight. I bought my first options at 21, in the spring of 1987, and have been hooked since.

    The futures markets are increasingly dominated by algos and managed money, which is why it is often so easy for the EE to start the cascade-like selling. Big money flowing into these small markets obviuosly increases volatility, too, which is the practical reason behind the entire position limits discussion.
    The Comex, Nymex, CBOT et al are simply not designed to facillitate the volume of money and activity they are currently getting. However, position limits seem like a phony solution to me...sort of "rent control" like apartments in NYC and we all know how effective that is. Something must be done, however, because as you've pointed out, more and more $ chasing finite commodities in a confined market is a recipe for much, much higher prices that dramatically and directly effect the quality of life of millions if not billions.

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  30. USDX seems headed for 79.....

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  31. As JD has said this is a "coiled spring"...I'm trading for another leg down in gold and silver with about 40% cash on hand. IF i am wrong...fine..I will trade on the next channel up holding a nice core....now ...thats my paper trade. There is nothing stopping me from buying bullion and buying and buying....so A
    BIG hearty THANKS BLYTHE.

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  32. I guess technical charts that prove your fundamental belief are ok, but the ones that don't are not? I share the view that metals are going higher, but you can't have the 'technicals are for shit' argument both ways.

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  33. blister: You need to visit more frequently. I am NOT being hypocritical as I have explained my position on TA ad nauseam. Please take the time to read this from earlier this week:
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/blythe-wants-crumpets.html

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  34. Oh, blister, one more thing.
    If that's not good enough for ya, fuck off. Its my blog. I can say what I want.

    Just kididng...;)
    Please don't ever hesitate to point out anything that looks inconsistent, ambiguous or hypocritical. My aim is to provide a forum for honest discussion, not to promote myself as some sort of Magic All-Knowing Wizard.

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  35. To Flaunt: thank you so much for the Yahoo Finance link on whether or not SLV is legitimate. I have been struggling with this for months, and have been trading SLV for PSLV back and forth. PSLV scares me because they are selling for like a 14 percent premium to NAV. That could deflate in a hurry, and I wouldn't want to lose 10-14 percent of my IRA holdings. I'm back in SLV right now. R L Berger might be a fraud, but if what he says is correct, I can sleep a little easier. I'm thinking I'm going to do what he did and call Blackrock and talk to someone who knows the SLV fund (the Specialist). I'll report back to the board what I find out. I have $300k of SLV right now in 2 IRAs and I need to know the facts. I'm not concerned about the price of silver day to day, but whether or not I can safely use SLV as an ownership vehicle.
    P.S. if y'all haven't seen my spreadsheet lately, here is the link:

    Click here for spreadsheet

    Click Here for Complete RL Berger post on SLV

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  36. Oh come on guys. PSLV is legit, and SLV is an obvious fraud (a crooked bank audit of a crooked bank is not an audit - and my great-grandfather FOUNDED the original Bank of New York, so there!).

    I guess Turd will need to clean up some trolls that are spoiling the soup.

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  37. THANKS, COFFEE ALL OVER COMPUTER ROFL
    Oh, blister, one more thing.
    If that's not good enough for ya, fuck off. Its my blog. I can say what I want.

    Just kididng...;)
    Please don't ever hesitate to point out anything that looks inconsistent, ambiguous or hypocritical. My aim is to provide a forum for honest discussion, not to promote myself as some sort of Magic All-Knowing Wizard.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Why am I, at this moment, picturing myself licking Blythe Master's boots, she in her dominatrix outfit, yelling out "see I can do whatever I bloody well please with gold and silver, in spite of what the US dollar index is doing"!

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  39. sassballsgrandpa, you need to watch the cartoon bears again.

    "Hey, sheep I told not to watch the price".

    USD - 79.001.

    About to fall though.

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  40. Anyone thinks today's bizzaro action in the PMs has anything to do with Hu Jintao's visit come the 18th?

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  41. I think the price suppression has more to do with the reports that come out tomorrow ie: Retail Sales, CPI and Consumer Confidence.

    The lower Blythe the Monkey Master can keep the price initially, the less damage can be down if PM's spike upward triggering more buying.

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  42. I think I'm going to answer my own question and say that this does constitute a raid even though it's not a huge drop in price. The PMs are being suppressed nicely in the face of a plunging dollar. There are only a few things that could explain this that I can think of:

    1) Shorting futures to keep a lid on the USD-denominated price

    2) Massive selling by holders of other currencies, namely the Euro

    My gut tells me it's #1, though I guess I'll have to wait to see whether the open interest increased today.

    Question: Why is oil flat?

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  43. Went to Blackrock iShares site to look at SLV. Here are some important tidbits. I know many on this board are anti SLV and pro PSLV, but I just can't stomach a 14 percent premium to NAV in PSLV, so I'm trying to look deeper at SLV:

    Does the Trust hold allocated silver or unallocated silver?
    The Trust holds both allocated and unallocated silver.
    However, the custodian must take reasonable action to
    minimize the amount of bullion in the Trust’s account that
    is on an unallocated basis, and the custodian must allocate
    silver
    bars to the account of the Trust so that no more than
    1,100 ounces of silver are held for the Trust’s account
    on an unallocated basis at the end of each business day.
    Does the Trust lend or have the ability to lend silver
    from the portfolio?
    No. The custodial agreement does not allow lending, and
    the Trust does not lend silver from the portfolio.

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  44. sass..I've read many articles on SLV delving into the FINE PRINT which you are not reading. That's why the honest players have a premium. Same with GLD. On big demand days do you see them buying 30 tons of gold ? From where I ask ? What bothers me about todays action is I can see the dollar reversing here and gold going down even more....That FU really stands out, right now...

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  45. Jim Willie's latest:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/jan132011.html

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  46. It will be interesting to see what happens after the COMEX close at 130. My guess is she'll let it run after that. Just a guess.

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  47. @sassballsgrandpa

    Take a look on the section about the sub-custodians and the nature of the sub-custodial agreements with the custodian.

    I'm recalling this from memory so may be off, but when the custodian assumes no liability on fraudulent activity by the sub-custodian and compound that with the unwritten nature of agreements between the parties; personally, I would be very leery of SLV.

    Not because they dont have what they claim to have but I simply have no recourse if some funny business occurs.

    Last I remember, SLV had little to no silver with subcustodians tho.

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  48. SLV is nothing more than a vehicle designed to divert interest and dollars from the futures market and keep the price suppressed! It is for the stupid so they can fleeced.

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  49. @sassballsgrandpa

    About the custodial agreement not allowing lending, nothing stopping subcustodians engaging in such activity no?

    Also, I have no idea how and when they square the books so it could well be possible that all the silver is parceled out to subcustodians and then recovered for audit.

    Since there is no written record no one would be the wiser.

    After all SLV only needs to have the silver she claims to have when the audit occurs no?

    I'm no accountant so please take my ramblings with alot of salt in hand, and if you find otherwise please correct my lack of understanding.

    Cheers.

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  50. Noise, Noise, Noise. If you can sit and wait for $1000 EU Gold you will be fine. That's the line in the sand. We get corrections / consolidations every few months and we grind on up. It's not different this time. It pisses me off but it's the nature of the beast.
    Look at it this way; If the markets were fair and just none of us would have any gold as it would simply be too expensive.
    So instead of complaining about the CTFC, Blythe, JPM etc. send them a thank you letter. Every Ponzi fails. The bigger they are the harder they fall. This generation of traders are the ones who will benefit from this Ponzi failure.


    Also, with everyone and their monkeys uncle writing newsletters and scaring the pants off everyone it's gonna happen.

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  51. I agree that there's lots of opportunity for fraud in SLV, just like there is in many other ETFs and equities in general. I think PSLV benefits from Sprott's stellar reputation among knowledgeable precious metals investors, but that doesn't necessarily mean SLV IS fraudulent. It's important to separate the possibility from the fact.

    Jeff, the other piece of fine print is that SLV and GLD don't "buy" metal on the open market. There are certain authorized 3rd parties who ostensibly own the metal and "deliver" it to the trust when it is needed. These 3rd parties are motivated by some sort of profit motive, but I'm not sure exactly how that looks on paper. It involves obtaining newly-created shares of SLV when metal is delivered, and conversely must involve turning in shares for metal when SLV needs to get rid of some.

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  52. Here's my 2 cents for all those that want to bad mouth this blog or Turd etc...if ya don't like it go elsewhere and do it quickly please...

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  53. Turd...WTF? Someone please tell me what is going on with the metals...its like they are trying to hold back a chained animal afraid of what it will do once its set free!

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  54. bottom line is this guys on PSLV...it is putting an UNFKNBLVBLE strain on the LBMA and its front the COMEX...The premium is telling you EVERYTHING...silver bullion in LARGE quantities is scarce. If you think the PTB can't force this issue even further with their manipulation then you could be in for a rude surprise. Either way this turns here have cash ready to add to your position....

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  55. silver has gone up loads. lots recently! obviously we are getting a little sideways/correction going on here. nothing goes straight up all the time. the only thing that makes it wierd is the dollar decline. cotton and coffee are also getting screwed again.

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  56. You got it, FISD. The post-DeathStar hammering commences.

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  57. After a little more thought I think this is how the 3rd parties make money working with SLV:

    1) 3rd parties own some silver bullion
    2) Price of silver bullion goes up
    3) SLV trust says "we need bullion"
    4) 3rd party gives bullion to SLV trust
    5) SLV trust gives 3rd party shares of SLV
    6) 3rd party sells SLV shares on the market

    then

    7) Price of silver bullion goes down
    8) SLV trust says "we need to get rid of some bullion"
    9) 3rd party buys SLV shares on open market
    10) 3rd party gives shares to SLV trust and gets bullion

    Rinse, repeat. They make money on the way up and on the way down.

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  58. This train ain,t allowed to leave the station,they don,t want it to leave the station because once the masses say they don,t want fiat they are buried.

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  59. To hear Harvey tell the story, these attacks are not shaking out long positions and are only bringing more BTFD money to the table.

    What is Blythe thinking?

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  60. BIG fkn leg down...hehehe..sorry guys but this is just too fochin funny..how absurd but predictable...I hope Blythe gives a blue light special in a week or two.

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  61. Anyone who thinks the fraud ridden GLD and SLV ETF's are legit is either ignorant, stupid or both. Please get up to speed or get the hell off this blog. I'm sick of reading that crap.

    That's said, BTFD.

    Bay of Pigs

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  62. flaunt....3rd party shows up with silver for SLV. Again from where ? Not Comex. Sprott can't get silver. Silver is in big demand yet 3rd party hands it over. Not happening. Only thing going on is paper shuffle.....we can agree to disagree, just show me this 3rd party.

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  63. Interesting to see what happens with the dollar overnight. More bad economic news on tap for tomorrow. If the dollar bounces off 79 and goes back up range bound I second the earlier comment that Blythe will open the floodgates to really pound it down. At some point the buyers will shove it up her ugly ass and what a ramming it will be!

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  64. Platinum is holding rock solid.

    One thing I have learned over the past two years is when you hear gold/silver bugs get all pissed off that the price is going down, that is a great time to BUY MORE METAL!

    Look at this time last year, from December, 2009 - April, 2010. Look familiar? The gold bugs were soooo depressed back then.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2009-12-01&en=2010-03-25&id=p33970500335

    And then, take a LOOK what happened right after that depressing time:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2010-03-25&en=2010-06-30&id=p75533289319

    So fear not - we may see more volatile moves, but who cares, this spring there is going to be turbo rockets on silver and gold. So INCREASE your mining positions, and buy more metal now.

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  65. Well, I managed to pick up one more British Sovereign today, (approx 1/4 oz Au), but I gotta be honest with you guys that this is absolutely, positively the last speck of physical Gold or Silver that my modest and way overextended financial means can possible swing. From here on out, it's just hunker down, watch the show, and hope for the best. Good Luck to you all.

    Eric

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  66. My friends suggest to be very careful with buying those dips here as I see a dead ugly selloff ahead. I have posted that already this morning at ZH and in my blog - and so far I'm spot on. Da HUI tells you everything you need to know!

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  67. Mike Krieger presents the following disturbing observation on this trend: "In the first 12 days of January 3.4 million silver eagles have been sold. I have never seen anything like this. The amount of physical being taken off the market on this paper sell off is EXTRAORDINARY. We must be VERY close to the end." Whoever has adopted JPM's legacy paper silver short position is in for some very troubling days ahead.

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  68. BTFD. Physical demand exploding. Physical supplies in shortage. Bullion delivery delays. The violent price action in the face of a collapsing USDX must be confirming that we are fast approaching a major tipping point. Nothing else makes sense, at least not to me.

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  69. An access market big sell-off usually indicates a taking down coming soon. They are ahead of the previous big raid so hold on tight, folks. Play it tight and don't get too deep on the leverages.

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  70. Barb, I am also all in ;)

    Right now I think it's even funny, how can the monkeys even claim to be serious when at the same time physical demand is skyrocketing at the US Mint?
    price low -> more demand -> price higher
    They are just trying to break the law of market which up to now did not bow to men far more powerful and wiser than the Bernank or Blythe. Anyhow, everybody's free to try :)

    Maybe we'll see decoupling (paper metals vs metals) one of these days which would translate to:
    XAGUSD @ FOREX, bitchez! (forex doesn't default, right?)

    Ah and sth. for anger management (the last third or so is about emotional traps when investing)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UGaMEsspXQ&feature=channel

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  71. What does "BTFD" stand for? Thanks!

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  72. Quite seriously, if you don't think it's wise to buy physical now, can you guarantee that there'll be any available to purchase in the coming months?

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  73. Sorry, that was in relation to the Hamster's earlier post.

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  74. Andrew Ham's mostly referring to trading postions (miners, GLD,SLV) Buy all the physical metal you can. If it goes lower, buy it again.

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  75. Silver is a ragging bull and it will soon demonstrate its prowess to the market. Today's action is ARTIFICIAL and I am willing to say that we are witnessing the lows for 2011. I look at my charts and I don't see a take down...I see a CRIME SCENE!

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  76. So Turd...I have no idea if this drop in silver has anything to do with my comments yesterday...but something is surely happening and I don't have that crystal ball...I'm just waiting to jump at another 500 oz physical and keep my averages comfortable...

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  77. It is interesting that the Hamster is making an appearance.

    Taking a curtain call if you will, patting himself on the back for his "good calls".

    While anyone is entitled to his own opinion, I find two things somewhat curious:

    1. The tone he takes on his blog toward those who comment here, and specifically toward the Turd, is MUCH more, shall we say, patronizing.

    2. The Hamster seems to beleive that his technical analysis trumps everything else.

    Seems to me the Turdster is correct here, that technical analysis goes out the window in such a manipulated market.

    Time will tell of course, but I hope the Hamster also sees fit to come back if he is proven incorrect, and his chart analysis fails.

    I have noticed that whenever this is the case, there is always a "good explanation" though.

    I cannot see this blatant counterintuitive PM performance continuing much longer. A few weeks or months maybe, but I sense that DD is spot on -- there is a major tipping point a comin'!

    Silver and gold prices can't just continue to fly in the face of bad news for the dollar and the economy, physical shortages and increasing investment demand indefinitely.

    TPTB are smart and have lots of fiat on their side. They can easily manipulate the things we see on our "charts". But they can only disguise REALITY for so long.

    The reality is there will be NO RECOVERY.

    We are in a DEPRESSION.

    We must protect ourselves with silver and gold.

    A "dead ugly selloff" as Hammy "predicts" down to (heavens) $25 or even $22, if it gets that far, will look silly when price explodes, as FUNDAMENTALS and REALITY dictate it MUST.

    Hold on tight.

    And be rewarded.

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  78. Retail top ticked the market as usual. Now they're all sitting on $1+ losses (that are rapidly increasing). Better buying opportunities exist at 26 and 22-23 for new highs later this year or 2012.

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  79. Jeff:

    According to the prospectus there are many 3rd parties. Among them:

    Barclays Capital
    Citigroup Global Markets
    Credit Suisse Securities
    Goldman Sachs
    Intrade
    JP Morgan Securities
    Knight Clearning Services
    Soctia Capital
    UBS Securities

    They are required to keep an updated list somewhere but I don't know where it's located.

    There is certainly alot of opportunity for fraud since it's impossible to know for sure that the metal that is turned over to the trust is unencumbered. As far as where they get the metal, is it impossible that they might have agreements with miners as a source of supply? Some of the metal trades back and forth along with fluctuations in the price of SLV so they wouldn't have to replenish all the metal turned over to the trust in a given transaction.

    I think this highlights one of the nice aspects of PSLV, which is that there is much less counter-party risk. Sprott acquires the silver on the open market, Sprott stores the silver. End of story. I certainly wouldn't fault someone for trusting PSLV over SLV.

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  80. this is one hell of a sell off. maybe we will see $26...or around there.

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  81. Can retail send me an alert the next time they decide to buy at the top?

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  82. This is no different than all previous Monkey Attacks, so let's not read to much into it. A sell off into the mid 20s is highly unlikely in the face of the current reality in the physical world. As The criminals will be back within hours to cover their paper. They are going full out shaking the tree...let's wait for Harvey tonight and see the open interest numbers.

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  83. Turd,

    It's all good- I enjoy the blog and an occasional hypocrisy. We all want/expect PMs to do well. I also share the frustration of seeing daily+ charts not working in this highly manipulated casino we're stuck in. Why can't the pit boss pull Blythe into a back room and give her a good beat down ala Ted Binion?

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  84. Well my wife just shit a 25oz Silver bar when the Visa bill came. Over $6000. for PM's. I said it's money for money. I'm in the dog house for quite a while. Hope I get out. Today was no help.

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  85. Why you bastard. How dare you attempt to preserve the value of your savings by buying silver. Shame on you!

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  86. Turd, the hell with anyone who'd think that about you. I think the ones that you care about are here b/c they already know it. We don't doubt any of that, your sincerity is one of the reasons we're here.

    But there's no need for daily angst or pain. Even if gold and silver were to crash by 30 or 40%, the only people who'd need to worry are traders, short window investors, and those who foolishly bet the ranch in the expectation of easy fast profits. We're up against the EE, what, we don't think they're going to go all out to save their skins?

    The rest of us? I'll be buying a pick up truck to bring my $900 gold to the vault. $800 gold, I'll just get a bigger truck.

    Anyone who thinks what we're seeing is anything other than a mirage brought about by QE infusions, rigged markets and captive "regulators" is a fool. I'd suggest we use the latest foray to continue to diversify into hard assets to continue to re-balance a portfolio that previously had all it's eggs in the fiat money denominated asset basket.

    This could our chance for amazing bargains, but it all goes away if you panic now. That would be the exact reaction the EE is trying to produce, at the very time that they are actually on the ropes. The physical silver market has blown up: they can run from or obscure that simple reality for only so long.

    Don't let the losers shake you out during what is their fighting retreat.

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