Monday, January 31, 2011

What We've Learned Today

What a terrific, interesting day we've had.

We've learned/confirmed a lot today. As I type, crude is UP almost $3 and above $92. Copper is up over 8 points at 445.50. The grains all have double-digit gains. The CRB Index is up almost 6 points and is breaking out of its recent 6-week range. Of course, with that as background, gold is up....uhhh....errrr....oops, gold is down $10. Huh? How can that be?

If there was any thought that the "correction" over the past four weeks was organic and natural, fuhgeddabouddit. Its all bullshit. If you've needed further proof, I submit todays action in the PMs as exhibits #1 and #1A. The oh-so-obvious, reverse H&S bottom that will form on any move through 1345 in gold is causing the Evil Empire to throw as much new paper at the Comex as monetarily possible. Silver, too, is surviving against EE selling so heavy that it should be down over $1.00. The fact that it isn't is testament to its fundamental demand.

Look at the battle as it played out over the last 90 minutes or so on the Comex. Real demand spikes price around noon eastern. The battle to beat it back begins. At first, the PMs grudgingly give back ground. Then, as the close approaches and buyers begin to pull bids (which they are always going to do in volatile, crisis-driven markets like this), the consistent EE supply of paper finally begins to accelerate the downtrend right after 1:00. The "market" closes at 1:25 and the buyers go home. Not Blythe, however, as she keeps supplying her worthless, unbacked paper metal and price instantly collapses. A few buyers re-emerge for about a half hour or so to pick up some bargains but once they step away for good at around 2:30, down we go again. Expect this to continue the rest of the day. Here are one-minute charts of gold and silver that depict graphically these events:
As you might expect, I'm extremely confident in the aptly named "Turd's Bottom". However, since its clear that this entire "correction" is nothing but EE-inspired bullshit, don't expect Blythe to give up without a fight. Crude, copper, the grains...everything is conspiring to make Blythe's task impossible but she may be about to get a break. Check out these charts of copper and crude:
Both have moved within striking distance of breakout points. In fact, they are so close that if they don't break out tomorrow or Wednesday, they'll certainly pull back and consolidate. It will be this moment when Blythe will attack...sort of like how I described today's action only writ large.
Let's say copper pulls back toward 440 or 436 and crude pulls back toward 90, this will likely cause a lot of gold bids to be pulled. Blythe will utilize this weakness to put the fullcourt press on the PMs. I guess what I'm saying is: don't be surprised if we see some mid-week weakness.

Turd's Bottom is in, of that I'm certain, but logic and these charts tell me a semi-retest is coming. I'm expecting gold to trade down to 1320 and silver to 27.20. That should do it and I'll be a buyer at those levels. However, the monkeys will keep the pressure on so, if those levels fail, we may get a full retest at 1310 and 26.50. Not sayin we will get a second look at those numbers, just sayin we might.

That's it for now. Keep the faith. Don't get spooked by this volatility. Buy the dips. We will win. TF


8:00pm EST UPDATE:
Just a couple of quick things to follow up on this evening.
Gold is trading higher and is once again approaching the critical 1345 area. I've got a last of $1338.60.
Silver is up 0.07 and copper and crude are flat. It seems gold is actually playing some catch up.
Only one quick chart to share and that's of the CRB. I mentioned above that the index broke out today from the confines of a six-week range, Graphically, it looks like this:
This is one year chart. Note the significance of today's breakout. Because many of the components are so fundamentally strong, I believe its the real deal, not a phony, one-day pop. Time will tell but the index sure looks to be moving toward the 500 level and there is no way the PMs stay down at present levels in that environment.
Its eerily quiet across the board tonight. There's a 1MM+ person rally scheduled for Cairo tomorrow and I get the feeling that the entire world's on edge, waiting to see what happens next. ZH posted a link to an absolutely terrific, live Middle East Twitter feed. Seriously, what we all do without ZH? It's truly indispensable. http://www.mibazaar.com/egypt.html

More later if anything crazy happens otherwise I'll check in again tomorrow morning. Turd out.


109 comments:

  1. Just went on the Gainesville Coin website and they had a message saying they are experiencing a extremely high call/order volume. Seems telling of the situation regarding paper vs. physical.

    The Turd Abides...

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  2. I hear ya, 68. I aint sellin nothin.

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  3. 68 I had the hardest time about 2 weeks ago putting an order through at Gainesville because they were so busy... and it just shipped out today... it's crazy

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  4. Was just about to post about GainesvilleCoins, 2 out of 3 comments beat me though. The times they are a changin'!!

    Check out inventories on all quantities of silver at MPM. Only 4 100oz silver bars total and even the smaller weights are low in numbers.

    Monarch

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  5. Watch that ,....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7JlPN-dTEA

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  6. If silver went below $26.50 or gold below $1265 . . . I still wouldn't panic. That'd just be back up the truck time. We're headed to $1600 eventually, it's just a matter of WHEN.

    Good luck trading in the middle of it all though. Just buy the dips when you feel like it.

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  7. Something has been bothering me and I wanted to run it past the brain trust here and see what people think.

    I am confused as to why we are not seeing a larger divergence between paper spot price and actual, physical price- why isn't premium over spot simply going through the roof, given current conditions? If we have tons of paper shorts being thrown at rising demand, coupled with supply squeeze, I would expect dealers, etc. to say "Well I have a few left, but it'll cost ya", rather than "No, sold out at the (manipulated) price of spot plus a small fee".

    In other words, I get why se are seeing shortages in the market, but I cannot see why we aren't seeing premiums go through the roof in response... Many thanks.

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  8. PM gang, it feels like EE is giving up on silver and concentrating firepower on gold. EE knows they're about toast with silver due to physical shortage, and short squeeze is inevitable, therefore EE is concentrating on gold.

    I think due to gold's higher price per oz, average Joe like you and I don't have a chance to buy gold into shortage. So EE is picking up the ball and going to gold court, where short squeeze probability is lower.

    With the news where speculators are exercising out of money options to stand for silver delivery, COMEX silver semi-default is guaranteed.

    One question for the PM old timers, are gold bullions less than 1 troy oz good buys? I don't have cash sitting around to buy 1 oz Au at a time.

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  9. I have been Gaines****e's customer for last 2 years, and this is the first time I have seen that they are overloaded. I used to believe that Ap**x manipulate there inventory to markets direction, but Gainesville were always upfront without manipulation.

    So much for volatile barbaric yellow & shiny metals :). Hang tight.

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  10. Pining--

    I think we WILL see it. Look at the post about Gainesville at the top of this section. I don't know when they get there, but at some point they just say screw it let's double all our premiums just so our employees can get a hot meal and some sleep.

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  11. LOL on word verification again.

    "untazed"

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  12. Eric- Ha! May you remain "untazed", sir!

    I just have this equation in my head, and it isn't making sense- A+B+C SHOULD equal D
    A= Massive EE shorts, skewing pricing
    B= Rising demand
    C= increasing supply shortages
    D= should be a BIG rise in premium over spot for physical

    I ask because if one of these assumptions is in error, it would be nice to know- either some of our assumptions are faulty, or we are in for a huge rise in premiums, regardless of spot fluctuations.

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  13. @Eric,

    Your comment about oil is telling.

    One chart indicator I use is a relative strength line to gold (13 day and 55 day of XGLD actually and look at crossings). Not all miners are created equal. You want to own a miner that is outperforming the underlying metal, which in this case is real money.

    The big miners tend not to do very well. ABX is about even with gold's performance, and NEM is way underperforming.

    Especially use this to check small exploration companies. TLR is underperforming while Minco (MGH) and Paramount (PZG) are outperforming.

    In general the 2nd tier miners that produce 100,000 to 1 million ounces/yr have the best risk/reward profile.

    But about oil, ConocoPhilips rel.str. to gold on a long-term weekly chart is just now crossing up. Last time it had a similar appearance it outperformed for two years and tripled in price (and pays a dividend too). CVX and XOM are almost crossing.

    I use this when evaluating other stocks too. Heck, if I'm going to own a tech stock it ought to at least be outperforming real money.

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  14. Countermeasure, fractional gold can be good to have a bit of in your collection. 1/10 and 1/4 gold eagles are available but note that you will be paying a higher premium per oz. with fractionals. Also, you might actually consider some of the old U.S. $2.50, $5.00 and $10.00 liberty and indian head pieces as they are available at pretty low premiums right now in common dates up to about the MS-62 condition...

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  15. "Keep the faith. Don't get spooked by this volatility. Buy the dips. We will win. TF"

    I have only been on the pm rollercoaster since Fall of last year. It's been the same story and I do know the game the EE is playing has to end at some point.. but please enlighten a relative newbie here.. ..What is to stop this game from going on (and on and on) for a much longer time. Seems they have everything they need at their disposal to keep dancing this same dance. We see it day after day after week after week.

    What are some of you actually LOOKING for to know that they may be failing (finally)?

    I apologize if my question is too simple but I don't get what will finally put an end to this criminal market manipulation.

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  16. Countermeasure...

    I've been buying gold in 5g, 10g, and 1/2 oz sizes for a couple of reasons. Some of the smaller sizes will escape the scrutiny of Obamacare law that requires exchanges of 600 bucks or greater next year. They are more exchangeable and allow me to buy dips and average down.

    Just keep an eye on price over spot. Some dealers will put the wood to ya..

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  17. countermeasure---

    I want to tell you up front that I may be almost alone in this opinion( I seem to get that a lot;)), but I absolutely love British Sovereigns. Just a fraction under a quarter ounce (.2354 oz) and obtainable at very modest premiums. The history embedded in each coin of the former British Empire/Reserve Currency of the World is really neat stuff in my mind.

    I know, I know, everybody will tell you that you'll have a hard time selling them, and that in some post-apocalyptic Amerika you'll be better off with coins that American sheeples can understand, in denominations that they'll understand.

    Two responses:
    1) Any coin shop operator worth his salt has seen thousands of Sovereigns over the years. They know exactly how much gold is in them and what the market is for them. If these people can buy broken chains, bezels, and earrings, they sure as hell can buy Sovereigns in a heartbeat. And they do. At fair prices.

    2)I'm not generally investing for a real apocalypse, but even if I were, that's what 90% silver coin is for! I got bunch of that too.

    OK everybody, let me have it. Tell me how dumb I am and how Sovereigns suck. Won't change my mind though.

    Untazed, Unbowed, and Not Sellin' Nuthin',
    Eric

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  18. James Turk - Gold & Silver Have Reached an Important Bottom

    With volatility continuing in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. When asked about the action in precious metals Turk responded, “Through Friday’s close on the LBMA, silver remained in backwardation, even by the numbers reported on the LBMA’s site. The strong bounce on Friday after the option expiration combined with the backwardation is clear evidence that silver doesn’t want to stay down here in this area and is ready to move higher.”

    January 31, 2011
    KWN Blog Archives p://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html
    ..........................................
    In support of your call turd!!

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  19. itsallgood.

    what's the complaining about?
    silver is around 27-28$

    a year ago it was below $20
    give it another year and you will have $37 or $38 or maybe $40 or even $48
    it doesn't happen over night usually

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  20. Don---
    I use relative strength all the time. Maybe not as scientifically as you do, but beforeI buy anything, and I mean anything, I need to get a feel for relative strength.

    I use Google Finance a lot. Chart a stock and compare a bunch of others to it. Different sector ETF's, Different stocks within a sector, Miners vs bullion, on and on. Buy strength, avoid weakness. It works for me.

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  21. Not complaining! Sorry if my post came off that way. I wouldn't be able to have the metal that I do today if not for this manipulation. Many of us former sheeple are newly awakened and grateful for the extra 'time' to prepare.

    I guess I just don't understand the deeper inner workings of the market, Comex, Fed, etc. But that's why I'm here ..to learn. I'll just keep reading and doing just that. Not up to you to educate me. It's up to me! :-]

    I'm sure the game can only be carried out for so long. They have mighty deep pockets though and a printing press that rivals the energizer bunny in that it just keeps going and going. I'm patient. Will keep buying.

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  22. Don't make it complicated.....do you want those fiat dollars sitting there being devalued and earning NO interest....ITs a fochin PONZI...no I think I like to have bullion.....could care less what the bullion does in the short term...hold a little fiat if they knock it down......but don't count on it....

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  23. ItsAllGood,
    It's a fact that central banks manipulate the gold price, just as they do the value of currencies. See GATA's evidence of this. We have to accept this. But, over the last 10 years the best they have been able to do is to limit the rate of increase in the price of gold vs. fiat currencies (or, more likely, the rate of decrease in fiat currences vs gold). One of the ways they keep the lid on gold is to make sure it never rises by more than 2% a day (see John Embry's article on this point - just Google to find it). In this way they try to make sure that the public never gets too excited about gold. Of course the MSM also nevers lets the public know that gold's price in USD is up an avg of 18% a year over the last 10 years.

    So, for gold, let's just accept that maybe we get 20% gains per year (in USD terms).

    Silver is different. Can type a lot here, if you want to know more. Many of Turd's followers will be able to talk about this all day long.

    My main point is that we can't just lump gold and silver together and expect that they are driven by the same underlying dynamics/distortions.

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  24. Eric, nothing wrong with British Sovereigns in my mind either provided the premium is reasonable. As you say you are most likely going to be dealing with somebody who knows what they are buying when you go to sell them and silver (especially pre-65 coins) is what you'll want to be using for barter if things break down ugly.

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  25. Here's Embry's article re 2%:

    http://www.sprott.com/docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/MPLID_042310_pg124Emb.pdf

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  26. This is a typical example of what the premiums might look like on fractional AGE's. Changes all the time and different for ever company. In this case the 1/2 oz premium was lower than usual so I picked some up. It goes up fast as size goes down.

    coin price over prim %
    1 oz 1441.69 70.99 4.924082154
    1/2/oz 725 39.65 5.468965517
    1/4 oz 372.67 29.995 8.048675772
    1/10 oz 162.43 25.36 15.61287939

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  27. ItsAllGood,
    if you want to learn, learn from authorities. I believe that the authorities on PMs are (in no particular order, except that no. 1 is no. 1...):
    1. Turd
    2. Ted Butler
    3. James Rickards
    4. Jim Willie
    5. John Embry and Eric Sprott
    6. James Turk
    7. Gene Arensberg
    8. Harvey Organ

    I'm sure I've missed some or people will disagree with the list - let's hear some other opinions.

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  28. Don,
    If you don't want to patronize GOOGLE (which I don't...use SCROOGLE scraper to search!)--
    Stockcharts.com offers a performance charting option as well...and it's in the free section, too.

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  29. Sorry about that. It reformatted the chart. The last number string after the space is the premium percentage. Can't post it without it taking out the spaces.

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  30. Yep central banks the world over have a huge vested interest in suppressing gold. It looks like gold and silver are starting to diverge a little bit now, if this continues and the ratio starts to really widen I'll be trading some of my silver for gold at some point. The whole Fed system can't really stop the natural forces of inflation and the eventual abandonment of the dollar as a world reserve, but they can put the brakes on it long enough to try to make it a gradual, less bumpy ride on the way down. It's just a matter of later rather than sooner. I'm certain that anyone that keeps holding PMs is going to be very happy about it in 5 years time.

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  31. Turdle: I, for one, agree wholeheartedly with your list. You need to incluse Trader Dan, however. You can make him #1 and me #1A if you'd like...

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  32. For the record, everything I said about british sovereigns also applies to french/swiss 20 francs, except that my perception is that the premium has ticked up a little higher of late. I think the new 1099 concerns, and the attractiveness of something that can be sold for less than $600, has caused a bit of a move lately away from large coins toward those that are small, smaller, smallest.

    The following are all .1867 oz actual gold weight:
    France 20 Francs
    Switzerland 20 Francs
    Belgium 20 Francs
    Italy 20 Lire

    Just google "Latin Monetary Union" if you want to know more. Will give you some insight into current issues involving the Euro too. I.E. this idea has failed before, and will probably fail again.

    I think of the Sovereigns as "4 to 1's" and the Francs as "5 to 1's".

    Like I said maybe the premiums have krept up lately, but with the notable exception of the Belgian 20 Francs. Not as well known. Even my favorite gray haired coin shop guy had to look it up in his book to make sure is was the same weight. I've gotten the Belgians recently at still a very good price. Sometimes the Lire too. Everybody knows the French and Swiss though, so maybe a tad pricier. But hey, gold is gold.

    As far as other "4 to 1's" go, Mexican 10 Pesos seem pricey most of the time. Maybe the large Hispanic population in the US has something to do with it. German 20 Marks you don't see that often. But Sovereigns, they minted gazillions of them. Google it, you'll find out.

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  33. Turdle GG

    Love that list. Wouldn't add much, except the Weekly Metal Wrap at KWN. Lately always has Bill Haynes and Dan Norcini.

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  34. Though I must admit, Jim Willie is more for the flat out entertainment value. ;)

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  35. @insightanalytical,

    Thanks, I also use Stockcharts.com as they have some indicators that my regular service (Worden Bros. Telecharts) doesn't. Free is good.

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  36. Ever think that the "shortages" are simply because the dealers are waiting for prices to rise before releasing more coins, bars, etc. from inventory?

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  37. If you want to learn nothing, but are curious as to how the CFTC presents itself to the MSM, see this video:

    Michael Dunn, commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says that better regulation is essential, but he tells the FT's Javier Blas that critics should stop using speculators as scapegoats for high prices. (4m 54sec)

    http://video.ft.com/v/771494736001/Speculators-cast-as-scapegoats

    One highlight: in discussing why commodities prices are so high, absolutely no mention is made by the interviewer or by Dunn about the role of Mr. Bernanke.

    You might need to be a paying subscriber to watch this, but it's certainly not worth becoming a subscriber just to watch this garbage.

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  38. So, I have a question for Turd's amazing brain-trust:

    Suppose TPTB were to continue to hammer gold and just let silver go to the moon ($100/oz). Covertly cover major short positions like JPM.

    Turn the physical shortage into an every-5-minutes Fox News Alert and spin it as resulting from long-term industrial overuse, NOT the death of fiat.

    I could see many advantages for TPTB, but I have to think there would be unintended consequences as well.

    Could this fly?

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  39. Anyone notice the kitco daily overlay chart? Friday and Monday looked almost EXACTLY the same, with the same moves at the same times during the day. I know this happens on occasion like takedowns, but not for a whole day. Thought that was weird.

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  40. RoCoach, to believe that the dealers are holding onto inventory to create an artificial shortage is to believe they are getting together and conspiring with each other. Seems highly implausible to me, especially since there's corresponding evidence for shortages of investment sized bars trading on the exchanges. Also lease forward rates are negative and 30, 60, up to a year out lease rates are still spiked.

    Looks like Apmex sold about 70 of their 100 oz bars today. All the "IRA Acceptable" ones are gone. I don't know how many they normally sell in a day.

    I also don't know why I actually thought silver was correlating with oil. I guess that was just too unacceptable to the EE. The lack of correlations that are consistent or make a bit of sense tells me there's a lot of thuggery still going on in the markets.

    Hopefully a match will be coming soon to light this tinderbox.

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  41. Turd,

    I can't believe who I left off my list of authorities: Santa!

    aka Jim Sinclair
    http://jsmineset.com/

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  42. was in Gainesville Coins shop today and the owner said he can't keep anything in stock. He so far backordered that as soon as he gets any silver in he has to deliver on his backorders. I bought a bunch last week and am still waiting. Bought a bunch of Buffaloes today just for the hell of it, but will have to wait another 10 days or so I guess before they will get here. Both times I've been in the shop there are about a dozen people milling around. The owner said it's been crazy like that all month long. He was all out of 100oz bars too.

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  43. Turdle GG,

    You could toss David Morgan onto your list too..very experienced in the silver market

    Cheers

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  44. CO_Dan,
    Another way it could be spun in the MSM is that silver is merely reverting to its long run relationship to the price of gold, which many say is about 1:16. If gold is $1,500, then silver should be $93.75.

    Thanks to Pick52 I just checked out David Morgan's website. After getting through the hard-sell parts of it I was sent an e-mail with a link to this video, which is interesting. It's called the "11 Silver Factors". In factor no. 8 he talks about the long-term gold:silver ratio, and talks of it being about 1:10 to 1:15. He thinks the ratio is going back to 1:10, saying silver could go to $200 (so gold would be $2,000)

    http://cache.silver-investor.com/movie/11silverfactors/11silverfactors.html

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  45. Regarding Turtle GG's List .... Awesome!

    On a 1 to 10 scale with one being weak and ten being strong after a little over 5.5 years in the PM market I consider myself a solid five maybe six in terms of PM knowledge. I continue to learn things everyday. If you search hard enough the correct or non bullshit knowledge on the web is immense.

    Here's the thing, in those 5.5 years my opening home page has never changed but my 2nd, 3rd, 4th page view etc has changed tremendously. Suffice to say, my home page still opens today as it did 5.5 years ago. My web viewing starts and ends with the King - Santa AKA Jim Sinclair. I've seen Jim live in Toronto twice now and he is the PM guy in my opinion. Coupled with his immense PM knowledge he is a true professional and gentleman.

    My second web view since it's inception is this site, Turd's site. I first stumbled onto Turd over at ZH. I've learned so much on the Macro level from JS and I continue to learn so much on the Micro level from Turd. Both sites are a must as well as all the other Turtle GG mentioned Websites.

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  46. CO Dan-

    I have had the same thoughts. At some point, TPTB will have to cry uncle- as TF says, the fundamentals haven't changed. The longer they fight the tape, the more snap-back there will be and you reach a point of declining marginal returns- too much cost for not enough value.

    It would make sense in a "fighting the rear-guard retreat" sort of way for the EE to give on Silver. All the publicly trotted out rationalizations you give are valid, plus I would throw in "historical ratio G to S of 17 to 1, so we were due for a correction in Silver, nothing to see here"... every reason in the book except printing gobs of cash. You let some air out, buy more time for the Ponzi.

    If this is the case, the trade would be AGQ or leverage of some form in silver, ride the wave, then convert to gold when the difference in % gains gets absurd. THAT would be a fun ride...

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  47. CO Dan,

    fwiw I have a strong feeling that things may play out exactly as you suggested.

    we should all remember that silver is a MINISCULE market compared to gold. It still amazes me that some highnet worth individual or hedge funds HAVE NOT ALREADY runa raid like that being proposed by Lady Wynter. In the end, ALL of the silver in the world right now could theoretically be bought for a "mere" $30 billion.

    As for GG's list, sorry Turd, I will give you #2, but Ted Butler has to be #1.

    He called this stuff 25 years ago, and while I would put Turd at #1 for short term vision, as far as long term vision, gotta go with Ted.

    Pretty good company though. I for one would LOVE to be known as the second best anything in the world!

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  48. Turd,
    Today APMEX sold out of their FORWARD stock of 100 oz APMEX-branded bars. These bars won't even be delivered to APMEX for two more weeks and they sold out today. The market is that fricken tight right now.

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  49. Anybody know anything about this McClellan guy?

    "McClellan has discovered that there’s a cycle low that appears for gold roughly every 12.5 months. The cycle lows have run as follows: Jan 6, ’06, Jan 8, ’07, Jan 7, ’08, Jan 5, ’09, Jan. 4, ’10, Jan 8, ’11. McClellan puts the next cycle bottom for gold at February 8, 2011. Which means that the cycle low for gold should arrive at any time between now and February 8, give or take a few weeks before or after that date."

    http://www.financialsense.com/node/3985?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_term=FSO

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  50. flaunt, know nothing about McClellan but regarding his Feb 8 date, coincidentally thisWynter Benton person says his/her group's silver buying on COMEX will start on Feb 8

    If you have been paying attention you would know that our group starts buying after Feb 8. The big hedge funds we talk to want to buy when the price is over $31. They would rather buy at $31 then at $24 because they (as well as we) would interpret the price above $31 as indicative of tight supply while a price of $24 as indicative of abundant supply.

    They would gladly pay $40 if this indicate how tight the supply is rather than a lower price if this indicates the Morgue somehow was less afraid of a raid. This is a scheme to force a premium from the Comex and the buy in price is really irrelevant if we can be assured that the Comex doesnt have physical to deliver.

    The key to this is to see how many Mar contracts are standing for delivery as Mar 1 approaches. The bulk of the buying will occur near the end but the process starts on Feb 8.


    The only way this will fail is if Comex and The Morgue can deliver physical silver. Period. The buy-in price is irrelevant. But if they cant deliver the physical, then their only defense is to hike the price.

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=384772&mid=384901

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  51. Turdle, Cris, CO Dan-

    Forgive this tinfoil hat comment linking these together, just for fun - I couldn't resist ;-)

    What if the EE has decided to let silver fly for the reasons we discussed above, and "Wynter Benton" is an acronym for some jr. flunky @ JPM, tasked with providing disinformation to muddy the waters! Can you imagine the breathless CNBS coverage?
    "So what's up with silver, now trading at 129 dollars per ounce- is it speculative hedge fund conspiracy as some internet rumors suggest? Our last guest claimed it is merely a historical ratio of gold to silverreturning to the mean. No Erin, it is simply pent-up industrial demand demand and therefore means green shoots for the ongoing recovery! Shots all around! And we have always been at war with Eastasia. Back after this".

    Ok, tinfoil hat set aside. Thanks for playing.

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  52. B: Apmex did just today add some Heraeus 100 oz, and a pair of 1000 oz bars (first ones in many months):

    http://www.apmex.com/Category/518/Silver_Bars_Secondary_Market__New.aspx

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  53. Turdle GG:

    Your info and lists are fabulous! I already follow many of the names you have listed and I just appreciate the time you took to educate. I am grateful!

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  54. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  55. Pining: Actually, I've been harboring similar thoughts.

    < tin foil hat > Wynter is a Flying Monkey who is helping Blythe play Rope-a-Dope with greedy hedgies.

    Stand back and let the SHK's of the world go long and run us up to $40+, then get them to front their (highly-leveraged) $$$ and stand for deliver on March 1.

    Then smash silver back to $32.

    Rather than demanding a 20% premium from Blythe, they'll be begging her for mercy...
    < /tin foil hat >

    ReplyDelete
  56. " Wynter is a Flying Monkey "

    I don't buy that at all. There are over 200 messages/he/she have left. Review them....I don't see it. Disinformation is not that complex....see Battle of Midway Island in WWII for a classic example. To work, disinformation has be straightforward and simple. Not like TV shows.

    More likely, pining and/or CO_DAN is a JP Morgan plant to discredit Wynter.

    No person or entity can control the market for long. Wynter's group, if they send silver over $40 may blow things to the moon.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Easy, Jack. We're just playing. But for the record, if JPM is reading this I would happily become a well paid plant. Have your people call my people! ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  58. Here's my updated list of authorities on silver and gold, in some sort of attempted order:

    1. Jim Sinclair and Dan Norcini
    2. Ted Butler
    3. Our man Turd
    4. GATA
    5. John Embry and Eric Sprott
    6. James Rickards
    7. James Turk
    8. Harvey Organ
    9. Gene Arensberg
    10. David Morgan
    11. Jim Willie

    And that's enough from me for today.

    ReplyDelete
  59. No harm intended, Jack. I'm wanting to watch this play out, though, before I'm sold on Wynter's agenda.

    As always, a big Thank You to Turd for providing a forum where we can pose nutty theories!

    ReplyDelete
  60. Actually, one more thing from me, a request.

    Does anyone have a well-written, objective and cogent investment summary for silver? Something that lays out all the facts in a clear, unemotional and professional fashion.

    The reason I ask is that I need to give it to my brother to help convince him to join the PM party. He runs a private equity fund and is very sceptical of non-mainstream ideas. He is used to making decisions based on 100 page investment committee memos full of charts and tables and FACTS.

    Any help would be appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  61. There are four names that Santa would add to TGG's list:

    Alf Fields
    Sir Harry Shultz
    Richard Russell
    Martin A. Armstrong.

    ReplyDelete
  62. It seems that someone or something is here to watch the end of the great Keynesian experiment. Jerusalem had a mass UFO sighting and this isn't your normal sighting....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ-bNOy_CKQ
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY2FFEufsuY
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWJodroUxVo

    ReplyDelete
  63. Hey Turdle, just subscribe to Ted Butlers newsletter and you will have access to his whole archive. Have him read Turds site, Harvey Organs daily analysis and then draw his own conclusion. If he doesn't get it after that... Be sure to click on a few advertisers or hit the feed the Turd button while your at it!

    Sorry to sound like a shill for these guys but I'm a fan of them all. They don't blow smoke up your a$$ about things and they call bullshit what it is, bullshit.

    If it takes a pretty chart for him to get it hell Turd does those all the time and events rights noteworthy comments on them. Has that fella even looked at a 5 year chart of silver or gold?

    ReplyDelete
  64. B,

    Wow. The fact that you posted those links on this forum helps confirm some interesting things. Time will tell! I know Turd doesn't want politics/religion here, so we'll let that dog lay where she is. Thanks for that post.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Turtle GG,

    See what you think of this:

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-puplava/silver-undervalued-asset-looking-for-a-catalyst?sms_ss=google&at_xt=4d4780e1a5cc40b8%2C0

    ReplyDelete
  66. Hey Turd,

    How's your bottom feeling? We got Tuesday coming up and I think the flying monkeys spent most of their day stacking orders into the system to short the h3ll out of it in an effort to scare off that wynters chick and her friends. Those guys gotta think about it all this week before taking a plunge and betting a boatload of FRN's on the idea that they can force the comex to cash settle right?

    Guess we will see what kind of nuts this lady wynters has before to long. Never known a group to telegraph what they are about to do like that, but hey that silver whistle blower told those guys in advance how the market was going to be rigged and it played out exactly like he told them it would. I guess it could happen.....

    ReplyDelete
  67. Patrick, I generally like to stay on topic... but I found it interesting that its a recent event (unique timing) and seems to have a lot of evidence unlike previous UFO sightings (other than the Phoenix one).

    Back to the topic of PMs... APMEX sold well more than 79 100 oz bars today. Here is the kicker: >50 of those bars won't even be delivered till after the 16th of Feb. They aren't even in the APMEX warehouse yet!

    Yes, APMEX listed a 1000 oz bar and a Haraeus bar today. But you're forgetting that they just sold TWO 1000 oz bars last week.

    I've said it before and I'll say it again: Demand is accelerating for physical silver. When you can't buy the shiney metal any longer, the only thing you'll find that shines is that bright light-of-a-UFO on the videos I posted above...

    Goodnight ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  68. @ Turdle GG

    Try this:
    http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/11_10%20The%20Double-Barreled%20Silver%20Issue_FINAL.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  69. Thanks JimmyTheHand I think I will subscribe to Ted's newsletter. Yes, I think the world of Turd and Harvey. But let's remember that charts like Turd's reflect the technical style of analysis. Although I know that it's a more useful approach than pure fundamental analysis, it's still not mainstream enough for my dear brother. Also, although I believe in the existence of the EE, etc., as such things cannot be independently verified my brother will scoff at such notions. As for Harvey's stuff, with all due respect to him, I would not introduce his material to anyone without a lot of coaching and hand-holding. It's not exactly clearly articulated, and does rely on swallowing whole his notion that every move down in PMs is the result of evil midnight planning session by the bankers...

    You do have a good point to merely look at a 5 year chart. Better yet a 10 year chart. But what is the gut reaction of "normal" person to such things? I guess the reaction is: "I've just missed the bull market, how can I buy now"?

    Pick52, that's an excellent article, thank you. The one concern is that it's nearly 8 years old. Even though nearly everything he says is still pertinent, it's not convincing if it's so old.
    I'm sure I read something similar within the last year. When I find it I will post it here.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Turtle, I have has some success with Mike Maloney's DVD "Why Gold and Silver".

    http://goldsilver.com/why-gold-and-silver-dvd/ref/1052/dc/domainclick/

    People to add to the list of our heroes:

    MIKE MALONEY
    JASON HOMMEL

    ReplyDelete
  71. Rui,
    That's great, thank you. It's the one I was thinking about but couldn't find.

    ReplyDelete
  72. My TA says gold selling has dried up. Short-term, if April GC moves through 1348 it's then on up to 1385. Equities across the board printed a Sell signal on 1/19 and confirmed on 1/28. Commodities to resume uptrend and short term bonds might see a temporary lift as money flees from stocks, but AGG,BSV etc. are headed for a huge sell-off in the next couple months, so that should be a great catapult for Au and Ag onto NEW HIGHS.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Thanks reefman. Perhaps a DVD is a better alternative for a guy who gets sick of reading 100 page investment memos! (And Mike Maloney does look appropriately grave and wise on the front cover :))

    ReplyDelete
  74. @Turdle GG

    Despite silver's bullish case, I wanna say it's also very volatile so whoever investing in it has to have the stomach for that volatility. Silver market is simply too thin so the volatility typical to any commodity gets even magnified.

    ReplyDelete
  75. GG, I would point your bro to Jim Rickards' video presentation to military brass @

    http://outerdnn.outer.jhuapl.edu/rethinking/VideoArchives.aspx#rickards

    ReplyDelete
  76. Turdle,

    I just discovered they have the dvd for preview on youtube. You can watch it in segments. Yes, I like how you said "grave" - I chuckled at that one. "Intellectuals" take themselves way too seriously - which is part of the attraction of this blog - because it does not have that stiff-stuffy-air of intellectual hubris that is all too common amongst the "annointed" Keynesians.

    Check out the DVD and see if you like it or not.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/whygoldandsilver

    Nice little "pop" in silver as I write this. Up to $28.30

    ReplyDelete
  77. Chris, that is an excellent video. I even posted it on ZH a while back. It is long though, about two hours, but extremely well done.

    ReplyDelete
  78. I hear what you are saying turdle. I just bought into this a few months ago because noticed things didn't seem right with the stock market. I started to read up on a lot of different things, like flash crashes and all of that reading lead me to where I am at today. I listen carefully to Turd and Harvey, analyze things on my own and read Butler when he throws up a newsletter.

    I don't know anything compared with what those guys know, but I do understand supply and demand very well. Maybe you can show some of the supply and demand stats to him as in my opinion those stats are just as revealing as anything else you might be able to show. Headlines saying China, Russia, etc, etc, might provide compelling supportive evidence for your argument as well.

    Nothing like having friends and family stare at you like a your a caveman clinging to your silver bars. Oh well, we will see who is right and who is wrong eventually won't we? I feel comfortable in my choice! Good luck educating him and breaking that "being fed by the FED" mentality!

    ReplyDelete
  79. Thanks everyone. Lots of good resources. Now I will start on the indoctrination! If any of you are a younger brother you will know how tough it is to get your older brother to admit that maybe you know a thing or two...

    Rui, appreciate your point about the volatility.

    p.s. It's only 3:30pm my time, but if you guys are in Turd's part of the world shouldn't you be asleep?

    ReplyDelete
  80. Meant to say headlines showing China, Russia, etc, increasing their gold and silver holdings might provide compelling evidence.

    ReplyDelete
  81. 10Toz Apmex silver bars are about the size of a credit card, only a 1/4" thick. Don't go through a Great Implosion without one!

    ReplyDelete
  82. Talking about Mike Maloney's gold-silver video series, the last one where he described how he fired his broker was very funny. You can check it out here:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZEa5MJdrHU

    ReplyDelete
  83. Also check the Mike Maloney video below where he described the biggest EE dirty attack ever that happened from July 2008 to October 2008 to get a feel of the kinda enemy we are dealing with and the extent of their brazenness in rigging the market. It could give you an extra perspective of the dynamics of the market:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIb6dWQtX0c
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Do8KrwDtxzE

    ReplyDelete
  84. add FOFOA to that list too...for the broader historical perspective and 'speculation' on gold being used in the next global monetary system ;]

    ReplyDelete
  85. FOFOA?? Nah.

    The guy just last week was still bashing silver investment as a foolish speculator's game only to be discredited over the weekend by some Chinese banking official right smack in his face that silver is a legitimate reserve.

    FOFOA gets sth very right and then sth completely wrong. Not exactly the best source.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Where do you get sales from APMEX...aka seventy two 100 oz bars sold today? I believe it, but I'd like to track it myself.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Plenty of inventory at BullionDirect.

    I've comparison shopped 1oz Silver and Gold Eagles at APMEX and BullionDirect, they are within pennies of each other -- if you pay by check... CC is a different matter, unless you StockTraderPro2.

    Only downside to BullionDirect, they don't have Buffalos.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Now see, statements of "fact" like that drive me mad.

    How do you know there is "Plenty of inventory at BullionDirect" ? Can you prove this?

    ReplyDelete
  89. Jack, Bulliondirect doesn't expose inventory information so I'm simply going to say ShartBait is full of crap.

    APMEX does share this information, but only for inventory up for sale. Its not hard to find, just do a little digging and be pedantic about keeping accurate records to report what I report here.

    Most dealers, if you call them, will let you know how much they have for sale... just have to ask.

    Try calling BullionDirect tomorrow and inquire about their inventory. Maybe even ask about purchasing 50 100oz bars. Ask what the delivery timeline is for an order of that size after funds are processed (via wire or some other non-CC method). Let me know your results...

    ReplyDelete
  90. I'll tell you how I do it with Apmex, since I don't think it's a secret nor should it be if we're to have any credibility.

    In the case of 100 oz bars go to that page and in the quantity box for an available item type a bunch of 9s until it pops up a box saying they only have "x quantity available." Then you just have to keep track of it on a daily basis to see how they're tracking.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Flaunt,

    You can find out ALL OF APMEX'S INVENTORY - EVERYTHING. I discovered this and reported it to a youtuber who made a video:

    Silver: Physical Supply Information Tricks 4 & 6 digits for APMEX
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LkF4iqBIzg

    ReplyDelete
  92. I solved the problem of not being able to tell how much inventory is available at APMEX when it maxes out at FOUR "9"'s.

    I am a software developer and discovered a loophole. Feel free to make a video on this technique if you wish - I think it is helpful in tracking silver inventory levels.

    1. Get Google Chrome
    2. Go to apmex.com
    3. Go to 2011 Silver American Eagles - Brilliant Uncirculated
    4. Right-click on the textbox where you enter the quantity.
    5. Select "Inspect Element"
    6. You will see the following line of code highlighted:


    < input name="ctl07$ctl00$Products1$Repeater1$ctl01$txtQty" type="text" maxlength="6" id="ctl07_ctl00_Products1_Repeater1_ctl01_txtQty" onkeydown="updatebuttonKeyDownmoz(event,this, 'ctl07_ctl00_Products1_Repeater1_ctl01_btnAddToCart', 23969);" onkeyup="updatebuttonKeyUpmoz(event,this, 'ctl07_ctl00_Products1_Repeater1_ctl01_btnAddToCart','59157','E.P', 23969);" style="width:30px;">


    7. Double click on the number "4" as the parameter for maxlength.
    8. Enter "6" instead of "4"
    9. Type in "999999" and you will see the available product.



    Hope that helps. For this moment in time there are "23969" 1oz American Silver Eagles available.

    You can also notice this number "23969" appears later on in that same javascript call - so when you believe me that this is legit you can simply look at the javascript and get the number from there instead of having to change the maxlength.

    Try it with gold coins first just so you are convinced that this is really their inventory - since usually they don't have more than "9999" gold coins.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Well I was mostly just interested in the 100 oz bars but thanks for the heads up.

    Here's more from Bill Haynes on the 100 oz bar shortage:

    As for orders for new silver bars, Academy Corp’s popular stackable 100-oz. bars are two months out; JM bars are a month out; Royal Canadian Mint 100s are “two weeks out;” Sunshine Minting 100-oz. silver bars are “not on the horizon.” Buy order for 100s are picking on this price decline. If buying continues, dealer vaults will be emptied. Then buyers will have to wait weeks or months before receiving delivery of their bars.

    http://ity.im/06rks

    ReplyDelete
  94. If anyone wants to know what's actually going on in Egypt, here's an extended audio interview with Sandmonkey who is a rather prolific tweeter and is there:

    http://www.sudanesethinker.com/2011/01/31/interview-with-sandmonkey/

    I think we should pay close attention to what's going on because we could one day find ourselves in the same situation -- Facing and out of control government trying to place us under lock down to break our will.

    Hopefully not, but it's always better to think about this stuff ahead of time.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Just tried flaunt's method on APMEX. Punch in 9999's in the quantity and then they will tell you what is in stock. Works perfect.

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  96. Looks like we have liftoff. Blythe needs to step in on this, or the horse will be out of the barn.

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  97. @flaunt

    "Facing and out of control government trying to place us under lock down to break our will."

    And that is much different from what is already going on in this country?

    ReplyDelete
  98. Lots of things out today that favor a strong PM rise at least to me. King Abdullah having hell in Jordan. SHTF in Egypt with a million folks marching. Just the Egypt stock market being down should be a sign to folks gaming the markets that when SHTF the markets close! Good luck cashing out of stocks when the market (their chosen savings vehicle) is closed!!!

    But I guess in the same breath, the market here is open right now and I bet those candy asses are skittish as hell. Blythe has the hysteria of the masses effect on their side. If the pull out all stops they might be able to monkey hammer.

    That's what get for trying to put a logical explanation on something that is not logical!!! BTFD and hold physical. Only way to win.

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  99. I've been wondering about the markets if/when the SHTF ...You know, we are all (or many of us) investing in the miners and let's just say that on a day that things get so bad the markets here are closed. How are we even going to transact and even get to our shares? I envision a day that I would want to take some of my miner 'winnings' and cash out for metals. Anyone got any thoughts as to how this is all going to work? Uncharted territory I'd say.

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  100. New stuff from Richard Russell over at KWN. Always a must read.

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  101. @Eric, check this..

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-gold-bull-turns-bullish-on-stocks-2011-02-01

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  102. Himalayas:
    Some good points there, but notice Russell is putting a pretty tight stop loss on his stock recommendation. Maybe not a lot of conviction there.

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  103. Last year GDX bottomed on Friday February 5 at around 39 and change. Tulving did record sales about that time as well. Expect mucho troll howling this week.

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  104. Took a little longer than usual for the beatdown to come... Maybe they are getting tired.

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  105. I could use one more solid beatdown. Would like to pick up a little more SLW.

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  106. There is no support/resistance TA in this game. Like now they're just slicing through like knife in hot butter....Hammering away like there is no tomorrow. Should be used to it by now but I guess I'll never be

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  107. Beachball formation lol.

    Getting pretty funny.

    Such sharp upticks are more likely to be shorts covering rather than longs buying.

    Either that of those longs have DEEP pockets and have no access to a half decent execution.

    ReplyDelete