Saturday, January 22, 2011

The End Is Near

At the risk of looking & sounding like one of these maniacs:
I hereby proclaim that the end of this current PM correction is upon us.

First, please allow me to present to you, with little comment from yours truly, four very important weekly charts. In order, look at the USDX, the CRB, Dr. Copper and crude. I've kept my notes and lines to a minimum as I feel that, this week, it is important for you to draw your own conclusions.

OK, here's what I think: We are about to commence another UP leg in the general commodity area, which is summarized by the CRB index. Led by a collapsing USDX, all commodities are about to begin rolling higher. The grains are extraordinarily strong. Have you seen my wheat?!? Crude only got smashed back because of the new bs margin requirements. Do you think OPEC cares about margin requirements? Copper broke down through a one-week trading range but has since rebounded. And the PMs...ahh, our precious PMs...

In the end, there is no way that the recent action, and our price position, in the PMs is a coincidence. That gold sits within $25 of the low of its 3-month range and silver sits within $1.00 of a 15% correction and major support at $26.50, all the while the USDX is falling apart and the CRB looks to spring higher...folks, the end is near for this correction. Chances are the lows were put in Friday morning but I still suspect that there will be one more move down, to the $1320-25 level in gold and $26.50-75 in silver. Whether or not it does is of zero consequence, the next UP move is imminent and it will culminate with gold at $1600 on or before 6/10/11 and silver at 35 or 45 or 55, hell if I know, I just know that silver ain't hanging around $27 much longer.

Now, a couple of things I'd really like you to watch and read. First, please take time to read all of Harvey's latest update. All of it. It'll take you five minutes but its worth it.

Next, my buddy, Trader Dan doesn't usually get all worked up but he's sure got a burr in his saddle regarding Mr. Andrea Mitchell.

Take time to visit King World News. Listen to the "weekly metals wrap" but be sure to read the two blog notes with James Turk. Extremely important info in both.

Lastly, I've heard radio ads about this item. The ads mention this "great investor" who "predicts horrible things for 2011" and "you must listen to this free audio". I ignored the ads but then got a spam email from the "Draft Peter Schiff" group (I'm not sure what they're drafting him for) which contained a link. Surprisingly, the presentation covers almost all of the themes we cover here, at least as they pertain to "The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment". Now, here's where I need your help...The Turd has performed an almost uncountable amount of public seminars and presentations over the years. I know a good speaker when I hear one. The dude in this deal is not a good presenter. He damn near put me to sleep so I never made it to the end to find out when, exactly, the world is ending. Would someone please sacrifice and hour or so of their life to listen to the entire thing and report a summary? Please? Thanks.

I'll add more tomorrow if I see anything that merits your attention. Thanks again for being part of the blog. Have a great weekend! TF


  1. Kudos to Harvey....he hit them right between the eyes........

  2. Love the prediction TF - debating buying in more this next week after having lost about 15% over the month in AGQ - but was wondering your thoughts on this ZH post about it correcting down to about $22 per its 200 DMA

    Link to the graph of the spread between the 55 DMA and 200 DMA

  3. Reading Harvey Organ's letter to the CFTC, he sounds hopelessly naive if he thinks these corrupt/captured "regulators" will make any changes. I think whatever happens will take place because of relentless natural force of the market, not because our regulators will suddenly "see the light" and stop the cheating. This game has been going on for decades and probability of anything being done to stop it is low.

  4. Turd and others,

    Please take a look at Jack Springheel's latest blog: "Major Commodities Top?"

  5. Interesting...from a guy who looks down on technical chartists at this point in time. Low and behold....CHARTS! Glad you came back home Turd!

  6. Technicians like Jack go merrily along slinging their TA as if all markets aren't rigged, using historical TA roadmaps that are useless today.
    For technicians, TA is their language, their reason d'etre, and even thought they KNOW the markets are rigged, due to cognitive dissonance they just can't give it up.
    If anything, TPTB can afford the best TA money can buy, they see the same charts, and use them against traders. We are in uncharted ( pun intended )territory, and THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT.
    My take anyway.

  7. 911: you obviously don't follow this blog very closely but thanks for stopping by.

  8. Pat, if you insist. I hope I'm wrong, but I dont think I am.

    Read em and weep.

    $SILVER - Monthly Candlesticks

  9. Turd
    His major prediction is that the US dollar will loose its status as the "worlds reserve currency"
    that is the SHTF moment. What do you all think would happen if we lost that "status"
    I dont think it would be good, I just keep buying silver

  10. @Turd: I read your blog many times a day. You are about 85% accurate. Much credit is due to you and your research. You said it yourself, you are at a loss at the moment because everything is backwards. USD is dropping, but so are PMs. That's opposite everything that's right in this PM bull market. This is why I've turned back to technicals. I believe that Blythe got her point across to some and so the result is that they bailed. I'm holding my Silver tightly and wont let it go by any means, but at the same time I'm preparing for the downturn and getting ready to back up the truck. I'm afraid the bottom isn't here just yet. And btw...I'm not just another chartist trying to make a name for himself. I could care less. We're in this together.

  11. 911: I hear ya. NOTHING would surprise me at this point. If sivergoldsilver was right and silver fell to $10, I'd just shake it off.
    My point is: the fundos are now so overwhelmingly positive that EVERY correction WILL eventually turn. For me, almost everything screams THIS WEEK. We'll see...

  12. Hi T - In support of your near-term outlook, I just received word that Blythe' castrati...err, male assistants, were caught on video warming up the cryptic "Bottoms Are In" signal to the LBMA Market Makers Assoc.



  13. Another way to think is to be in the game with a core at this point. Hold tight with the cash for a confirmation of the turn.....It will be obvious. Then commit more cash. You will sleep better. One thing for 2 weeks we will have an answer.

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  15. Turd,

    I'm new here and wanted to thank you for your insightful commentary. I also follow Robert McHugh who is likewise very bullish on precious metals, and right now is also very confident that general equities will begin a major downtrend next week. If both of you are correct, that would indicate that SPX and precious metals are diverging... I was hoping to get your comments on whether you think this is a possibility. Thanks.

  16. That video is a lot like a recent one from Lombardi, but Lombardi actually picks a date for the revolt against the $US: May 1, 2011.

  17. Franklin is preparing himself for another down week in PMs:

    "Silver has fallen through its 20 DMA (2929c) and 50 DMA (2854c) and below here the next backstop appears at 2645c -- coincidentally my highest price target for this correction. Silver's fall is liable to turn vicious next week, so brace yourself."

  18. I agree that the bottom is in. I think that the algorithms will have to kick into high gear "buy mode" once the USDx falls into the 77 range next week. I believe that Turd is right when he is calling for a bottom. The most important thing is the USDx in my opinion (for the time being at least).

    For more information on the dollar index, check out my recent post @

    The End IS Near my friends...
    Ron Paul 2012 (2011?)
    Scott J

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  20. I listened to Porter Stansbury's video

    Thanks for the link, Turd.

    I thought it was well worth listening to. It's a sales pitch, but with a very long lead-in filled with some solid arguments justifying his prediction of an imminent crisis/collapse. To make it easier to listen to, I downloaded it and played it at double-speed.

    As I closed the tab in my browser, a window popped up asking if I really wanted to leave the page. I chose to stay and, voila, the entire transcript of the video with accompanying figures appeared.

    So, rather than summarize the content, I recommend scanning through the transcript for highlights if you don't want to watch the video. Just look at the graphs if you want a quick preview.

  21. The world ends when you pay Stansberry Research their dollar due for the rest of the story...better hope this guy isn't completely on the mark or we had all better have 1000's of ounces of metal, dried food and bullets...

  22. RIR-

    This place is filled- daily - with outstanding, hot off the presses real-time news and opinions, starting with Senior Ferguson hisself. Just hang around, read the comments and the links people helpfully imbed, and you will be rewarded. It's be best free PM's education on the net, so be sure to send a little tuition Turd's way.

  23. The Porter Stansberry thing is a fairly run of the mill argument that we are heading for an inflationary depression. Most readers here have probably heard it all before.

    I finally had to quit midway through, after all the "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" marathon is on!

  24. @CD As a member of the information generation, I never trust any jackass that does javascript::confirm when I try to exit a website. It also doesn't help that the fourth google entry for their address is an SEC fraud case.

    Of course that's not fair, as it's about what is said, not who said it. He's probably right, shit will hit the fan... Just dont be leveraged until it does, and dont pay people to tell you what you already know.

  25. I religiously read this site and appreciate Turd's positive outlook. But I have to say, there is no way in hell we are within close proximity to the bottom. 20% we are. 80% chance we see somewhere between $20-23ag.This will play out just like '79-80 with a huge drop so the banksters can cover and go long....I so want to be wrong AND will shower accolades to Turd if he is correct....This is what makes a market and why it's not easy to trade....If I'm right, there's only one thing to do, back up the truck.

  26. Speaking of silvergoldsilver, what happened to his website?

  27. right is right....yes I will post as will several here when the evidence is in...I've tried some bottom picking with every correction and usually get in too early. This time I have held 45% cash for the ride up....right now I have been in the ride down....T/A on confirmation on a new channel will be visible...the EXACT turn "might" be seen better in the miners. Recent action in ANV has been very suspicious and I have been watching it closely with a good core in it now...

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  31. Mr. Stansberry, SEC fraud case? ruh roh raggy...

    @Theos - agree, any website uses java junk to keep you from navigating away SUCKS! Just like the countless porn sites I've visited.

    Plus, no pause button on the video playback? I had to take a major dump half-way through that, miss quite a bit.

  32. Dan Norcini is watching for the consolidation in gold to last for a couple of more weeks, maybe. John Hathaway is on the same page for both bold and silver.

    David Skarica is looking at the HUI's RSI to hit or go below 30 like it did the last time the HUI went back to that level in Feb . 10. We're ever so close right now!

    By the way, the Merriman weekly forecast for 1/24 is up..,-2011/


  34. @ Jeff... $20-23ag? no way in hell right back atcha... PHYSICAL SHORTAGE OF SILVER + RISING DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL

  35. Anybody catch Doug Kass's head up his ass comment on CNBC?

    "Clinging to the inflation, money printing thesis,” is a pipe dream for the gold bugs.

    Says Gold is going back to $1050 in 2011. No mention of what good news will cause this sudden drop. Anybody know what his call was early 2010? Maybe he's just married to Jon Nadler's sister.

  36. Ag @ $20 - $23 wouldn't surprise me one bit. Ag crashes to $10? Again, wouldn't surprise me bit either. The PAPER price of Ag & Au for that matter will go wherever the cocksuckers in charge want it to go in order for them to cover their shorts. Watch the spot premiums go sky high especially for Au. Love this site Turd!

  37. The link to the transcript is here:

  38. There’s another good site dedicated to financial newsletter scams, Good a write-up of this Stansbury character's shady history and a series of articles picking apart the video:

  39. YouTube link to Stansberry's video:

    * On YouTube you can pause the video if you need to take a leak.

  40. ~ Jim Rickards speaks at Johns Hopkins APL about Economics and National Security

  41. CRAP here goes a rise in the USD. Dam really starting to worry about my position now. I can see it now USDX 82 Silver 26-24, nothing like a kick in the nuts beat down while down.

  42. Think about it. Gold did just fine in 2010 during periods of Euro worry (Greece, Ireland). Europeans are buying physical metals like there is no tomorrow. Traders go short Euro, long dollars and long gold. Lately the pressure has eased, so unwind those trades. Long Euro, short dollars and short gold. That explains our recent metals correction even though the dollar is weak. Totally explains why the usual gold vs dollar seesaw has had periods where it makes no sense. If Europe does another face plant (which you know it will sooner or later), that does not worry me regarding my metals positions at all.

    Dollars, Euros, Pounds, Yen, are all headed lower and lower versus real stuff all the time. Their exchange rates vs each other are short term noise. It matters for short term trades, but don't let it shake you out of long term physical positions.

    Now for something really important: GO PACKERS!

  43. Bottom Line: Another round of Euro Panic is GOOD for gold and silver and will probably help to put in the bottom that Turd is talking about.

  44. Alan Greenspan was a jazz musician at one point. Saxophone I think. He's a dedicated libertarian, and one of the best friends us goldbugs ever had.

    He's more or less promised a rising stock market, gold stocks should benefit quite nicely.

    I'm gonna notify the Prector and Shedlock Deflationista Show that bananas just shot up another 20 cents at my local Winn-Dixie grocery store. To .79 from .49 back in '06. The only thing deflating is what little credibility they have left. Maybe they're the ones buying all those bonds. Ha Ha.

  45. The above posts were written on gut feel. Just to be sure I looked at a 1 year chart with both UUP and GLD. The thesis totally holds up. Dollar and Gold traded basically TOGETHER from New Years, through the Greek crisis in May, through the summer. Then they went in OPPOSITION (what we usually think of as "normal") until late October\November. What happened in November? Ireland! Dollar and Gold have been together again since that time, right up until now.

    Hanging your precious metals hopes on a weak USDX has been a loser for most of the last year. Currently, weak dollar and weak gold are going together. If Ireland blows up again, we'll have strong dollar, strong gold. Bank on it.

  46. Greetings,
    I have been an accumulator and attempted trader simultaneously. Due to various circumstances, I need to exchange my precious coins for fiat. As an accumulator, I haven't thought about the "sell" side at all. Anyone have advice on the best way to sell? Ugh. It tears me up.

    Thanks in advance to anyone with any advice.

  47. Stewart Thompson had this to say about the coming crash of PM's.

    1. The Chinese Communist Gman, you are told, has done it all. He’s a superhero. Maybe we can make him into an action toy for the kiddies. Then again, NO. After beating on his citizens with a communist hammer of death and robbery for fifty years, the brave citizens of China have finally, without firing a shot, shown the PUTRID Gman the madness and evil of his murderous and thieving ways, and he’s backed off, to a degree.

    2. Instead of cheering the tireless work of millions of Chinese citizens (including millions who were KILLED for their efforts) for achieving what is one of the greatest non-violent victories against the Gman State in world history, the Communist Fan Club Of America, featuring leading GOLD writers as fresh card carrying members, surge forward to congratulate NOT even ONE single citizen on their mammoth work and victory for FREEDOM, but they instead line up on their knees in front of… THE COMMUNIST GMAN !

    3. I wonder how many of my gold writer competitors took time out from their communist cheerleading, to end the week with their trading accounts at a NEW ALL TIME HIGH on Friday at 5pm. I DID. Those who ignored my discussion of FOOD commodities many many months ago should not make the SAME mistake with URANIUM and NATURAL GAS.

    4. The SUGAR glut then is the natural gas glut NOW. IT will END the same way.

    5. With the DESTRUCTION of team Shorty Pants.

    6. When the Western banksters decided in the 1970s that their next big game would be to move their empires to China, they weren’t joking around. The banksters are on the move in China and enriching the gold community’s communist cheerleaders is the very last thing on their minds. The Chinese banksters are onside with their Western partners, onside for the next phase of the global bankster game, which is the implosion of the US bond market.

    7. The Chinese people are the scapegoat for the coming great dollar devaluation. It is their money held in US bonds that will be liquidated at losses to fuel the down spiral of the bond price. Then the dollar will be sold down to “save the bond”.

    8. The Chinese people are being told by the gold community it is a good investment move to price-chase bonds after a 30 year bull mkt, and then sell them at losses as the bond falls, and sell more at bigger losses as it falls more. Then call it a “win” and “astute investing by those smart Chinese”. I don’t know if I could THINK of a more insane statement. Whether the Chinese people complain about being ripped off by their banksters and Gman on this mega play doesn’t matter. The rip off has the highest probability of occurring.

    9. Mr. Macro has GREAT CONCERNS for the bond market. He believes vastly bigger hits on gold against the dollar are YET TO COME because of factors racing to a head involving the BOND, and he wonders out loud if the banksters are preparing for an outright announcement that QE is no longer required, and the economy is strong enough that rates can be raised.

    10. He asks the gold community to openly consider what such an announcement would mean on the DAY it is announced, or deemed to be coming, for the price of gold.

  48. 11. I spoke of the monster cash position I’m holding for the funds I manage with the ability to buy gold down to $900, (and personally to ZERO) and Mr Macro said, approx,

    12. “You, Stewart, are in the driver’s seat.”

    13. He notes the small size of the existing exit door on the gold market. I note my ability to buy massive amounts of gold if we get a hit. I’ll add my ongoing reminder that the monster 500,000 short contract position held by the banksters on the comex has never been resolved.

    14. Now you see why I’ve urged you to use PGENS that cover a MINIMUM of $300 an ounce. The volatility in gold is growing, not shrinking. I was HORRIFIED by mass numbers of statements from gold writers that “gold WILL rise in 2011”. All is possible. Including $2000. And including a down year.

    15. Shorter term, my partner Gold Artist is positive on the emotional damage done to investors over the past two weeks. He wants you all to understand that you can’t move UP in gold without moving DOWN first. That fact applies whether the move is minor or major. More down equals more up. The damage done to gold participants, both financially (because of an overemphasis on gold juniors) and emotionally over the past two weeks is substantial.

    16. That type of damage allows for a substantial rally, and whether it begins immediately or from a lower point doesn’t matter. My concern for gold is not for the immediate term. It is related to the bond market and you all know my statement, “don’t wish for something too hard, or you just might get it.”

    17. The gold community wished for the demise of the bond market, and that is now occurring.

    18. What are the tactics to survive and profit? It is very hard for me to see the banksters reversing their attack on the bond market. That attack is ultimately supremely gold-positive, but I have talked about it being gold-negative initially. Mr. Macro defines and expands on why: for an institutional money manager, coming to grips with the fact that the banksters might pull the plug on their QE hero is going to send them into SHELL SHOCK. I think they will sell the bond hard and sell gold hard. The general stock mkt would be hit too, but not as hard as GOLD. An intermediate size hit on gold is very very possible as that liquidity flows action occurs, and likely is being planned by the banksters right now.

    19. Yes the banksters will buy all the fundsters sell, at least on the gold side, and so will I. They’ll sell the bonds to bargain hunters who don’t understand the show is over, like the Nortel and Enron crew who bought the initial free money bargains when the market first rolled over.

    20. Free money bargains? More like: financial gravestones.

  49. 21. I’m afraid that most of the gold community is too busy waving communist fan club flags to understand what is happening right before their eyes, and a MAJOR wake-up call is nearing.

    22. What about Fudd, what happens to him? Well, Elmer Fudd Public Investor is all in on bonds. His growth with safety clown act of municipal bonds is already burning, and his state bonds are not far behind.

    23. State govts are discussing now how to stiff their creditors. Paying what they owe isn’t even on the list to to-do items, let alone at the top of the list. The T-bond stands ready to break the key 113 support zone if Mr. Macro’s “Bye Bye QE” scenario plays out.

    24. You know my view is in some ways the same as Mr. Macro’s, but in some ways the opposite. I also predicted the END of QE, but because it has FAILED, not because the economy is improving and it’s not needed. I think we are in the transition stage between QE and Gold Revaluation. That’s a DOWN or SIDEWAYS RANGE phase for gold.

    25. Great for the pgen.

    26. Financial death for the price chaser.

    27. I don’t know when that down/range phase starts, and I still think we make a new high above $1430 before it does.

    28. You know I’ve called most of the intermediate turns in the stock market, and the major turns of 2000, 2003, 2007, and 2009, although I give all the credit of the 2007 turn to Morgan Stanley with their triple sell signal, which was ironically almost totally ignored by all their own client-wieners.

    29. The latest QE blast lasts til June.

    30. SOMETIME between now and June, I would expect the stock market, but more so the gold and bond markets, to begin reacting to bankster statements of, “sorry morons, we’re turning the QE pipe off, ha ha ha”. The statements would of course be more polite, more like, “everything is so fantastic that we are turning the QE pipe off for your benefit. You’re welcome!”

    31. My suspicion is that institutions would react with a nervous glee. “Are things really better? I don’t know, but I think either way this is going to make rates rise and that is gold-negative. I better act like it is great news and sell gold because all my competitors are going to do it.” –Joe Fund Manager, sometime between now and June 2011.

  50. Correctamundo Eric.....Pay more attention to the fear trade with gold as the next move up. Fear of default...fear of currency debasement...fear of inflation.....fear of government instability....some of these scenarios DO involve a decoupling of the weak dollar strong gold and silver trade.

  51. I know the bottom line in reality everything points up, if it is supply and demand driven. Emerging monies worldwide leading to huge demand physical and industrial. Currency uncertainty worldwide. But these low prices last week haven't been bought well (at least price doesn't reflect) it seems to be at a major tipping point.
    Then there is the real reality, who pulls the control levers. I'd like to know if harvey recieves a response from any of the CFTC members or if his emails are spammed, he's right they wouldn't know what to do. But everyone know's they are all in it together. CME's margin hikes on all metals but newly cornered copper wich was lowered, what a crazy coincidence, huh. Look at the stuff we do know and imagine the stuff we don't. I just hope your right Eric/TF and others. But......
    BTW is JPM going to bring a copper ETF to market? Or is there one alreay...Just wondering about the copper $drop-off.

  52. legerde:
    Haven't sold much physical myself, but what I do know is that most coin shops will give you a better price if you bring in larger amounts at once. That is to say, if you bring in dribs and drabs, 10 oz of silver at a time, you'll get a lower price than if you just take the plunge and bring 100 oz all at once. And be sure he understands that you are shopping those 100 oz all around town. Can pretty much compare buy prices by phone to several shops first, and be sure they know you are talking about a sizeable amount of coin, then go to whoever is offering the best.

    Another choice would be selling on eBay. Never done it so don't know the details on how eBay and Paypal fees would eat into your return, but the gross selling price has been generally pretty ridiculously high lately.

    Another choice would be to sell to an online seller like APMEX. They list their buy prices with their listings and they look to my eye like higher than you'll get locally. But I don't know the details on how you ship it to them etc. They usually have it all on the websites.

  53. legerde:

    Why not sell to TF readers?

    I am sure the readership here is well equipped to offer a reasonable price and by far would fully understand the reluctance that goes into such a move.

    I have been successful buying on Craig's list.
    The sellers were in similar situations and mentioned that they get a far better price than by selling via eBay once you factor the commissions and PayPal fees.

  54. Wow, Craigslist is a great idea. It only took me like 30 seconds to find a listing from a guy wanting to buy silver. Definitely something to keep in mind. You can be damn sure I wouldn't be charging him sales tax. Nobody gets a 1099 either (next years rules). All cash. No muss, no fuss.

  55. EUR/USD has traded as high as 1.3635 in Asian pre-trade interbank market so I would not guarantee a rise in USDX today

  56. Nuff said.

  57. Any one know if physical gold can be leverages to buy silver ?

  58. firstly let me say i know sfa on economics so please feel free to gut this post

    regarding the monotone stansberry presentation

    He's saying that the USD will no longer be the worlds sole reserve currency and that america will go through a period similar to the uk when it lost its reserve status.
    i.e. you'll start paying a lot more for everything...
    He mentions this article regarding planning for an alternative reserve currency made up of a basket of currencies
    probably linked through the developing SDR system.
    There has been an increasing number of articles on the SDR becomining a clearing mechanisms for trade balances. ME Oil would be priced in some pan arab currency (the Iraqi Dinar?....this is 50% owned by the FED btw). If US buys ME oil USD would be convereted through the SDR for the purchase. When ME producer wants to buy air con units from China it pays with SDR. When china wants to buy cotton from us..SDR. This way no one becomes hostage to a devaluing currency, as they hold the SDR and not the dollar.
    Get you tin foil hat and some popcorn for this
    ( )
    Whislt the purchasing power of the US would become significantly poorer, it may not be as bad as it was for the UK. The US is still the largest cotton and food exporter in the world...which haven't done too badly recently.
    Other than germany I have no idea what europe brings to the table, other than aerospace and feta cheese.

    On a side note, everyone talks of the USD being a flight to safety in times of trouble. Will this still be the case if the fiat / PM manipulation has been stopped in its tracks with the recent short squeeze?

    ok gut away!

  59. dam it. I thought this was a new post.

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