Tuesday, January 25, 2011

A Good Place To Start

I thought about making this a totally new post last night but it was too late and I was too tired. It is, however, the proper place to start this day. I am currently compiling a more lengthy post. More later.

"11:45pm EST UPDATE:
Well, so far, the week has played out as we'd kind of expected. Perhaps not in process but certainly in price. Feb gold reached a low earlier this evening of 1329.50. March silver traded all the way down to our range and hit 26.63. The time is now. We will find out shortly if I am to be proven correct in this search for a bottom. Here's what to look for next:
Gold has rebounded this evening to 1334 and silver is back to 26.89. They will, most likely continue to rally overnight as the March USDX clings to the area around 78. At the Comex open and LBMA pm fix, the metals re-test the lows of this evening and hold. Perhaps the catalyst for the initial rebound will be the USDX breaking down. Perhaps it will be copper and crude rallying. No matter, the key will be the double bottom. Similarly, we got a double bottom at 25 in silver back in mid November at the exact same percentage drop from the recent high. See here for a recap:
So, anyway, the moment of truth has arrived. I can't wait for tomorrow."


  1. I think this is a good place to start. I'll continue to slowly add physical, but I'm also going to start scaling into more GDXJ. I'm thinking I'll just buy 10 contracts of March 35 calls each day. They're only over $1 now, and GDXJ was at 36.7 about a week ago.

  2. Gordon Brown on cnbc this morning laying the groundwork for QE2infinity. Trying to sell my used drawers to create funds for this buying opportunity. jd.

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  4. i will load up on GDXJ too, maybe today

  5. I'm watching SLW. Waiting to pick my spot to top off a trading position for the next run up.

    My physical PMs just sit there quietly. Don't bother me at all.

  6. Eric, I hear you on physical, but I want more. When do you have enough?

  7. My deleted comment above should have read that August $34 calls for GDXJ were looking good as well (I mistakenly said "$36" which costing less than a buck more than the $34, make the $34 a better buy).

  8. SLW volume picking up.....THERE it IS....hehehehehhehe BUY BUY

  9. CMT
    "When do you have enough?"

    That's a great question that could probably keep a whole new blog busy all the time.

    It's all about your personal views, risk tolerance, etc. People look at a percentage of assets, etc. 10%? 30%? Do you count your house? Do you count an expected imminent inheritance? Are you doing some of it via debt? Sitting on PM's while being debt free sounds like utopia but those two goals often work at cross purposes. Would it be better to pay off my house? Would it be better to pay off my credit cards? Where is the right balance?

    For me the bottom line is the "Sleep at night" test. If you don't have much, you worry about not having enough. But as you accumulate, maybe at some point you start to worry about the risks of having too much. Somewhere there's a balance point where you can sleep at night.

    Would appreciate thoughts from all on this board. When do you have enough? Turd?

  10. Watch SLW on the pivot 30.81....should kick the algos in.....big test

  11. Fellow Turdlings, may I suggest you take a look at SIL as an alternative to GDXJ. I love the underlying holdings, SLW is very big in the mix. Check it out.

    We'll get more pressure today in advance of options expiry tomorrow. The Shorts want to be sure as many as possible finish out of the money. This will prove to be a terrific buying opportunity for those who've kept their wits and some ammo.

    With the Bear raid now in its 4th week, there are SO MANY great bargains among some of the best Miners in each Tier, I feel like a kid in a candy shop! Or an adult in a gun store!

    For the speculative portion of my trading, I like Explorers and Juniors best. I bet on PM, REE, and Uranium plays. But with PMs getting shit-kicked for a month, I think the best value is now found there. Among these, here my top 3:

    -Golden Predator / GPRXF (CEO Bill Sheriff has GOT to be one of the smartest guy in the biz)

    -Tarsis / TARSF (along with GPRXF, the hottest Prospect Generator in the Yukon, which will be 2011's hottest Area/District play. Only 25mm shares outstanding! You read that right.)

    -Pelangio / PGXPF (Ingrid Hibbert is the lead Geo, she previously brought Detour Gold from infancy thru production. Lots of recent insider buys here as well)

    PGXPF can be had for .838 Ask right now. What a buy. Do your own due diligence, I think you'll like what you find.

  12. Eric, its funny that you say: "For me the bottom line is the "Sleep at night" test. If you don't have much, you worry about not having enough. But as you accumulate, maybe at some point you start to worry about the risks of having too much. Somewhere there's a balance point where you can sleep at night."

    That's kind of where I am. While I would like a bit more physical AU just to get to a round number, I already have more physical AG than I think I want. So I do vacillate between wanting a lot more and being scared that I'm to overweight.

  13. CMT you siad:
    My deleted comment above should have read that August $34 calls for GDXJ were looking good as well (I mistakenly said "$36" which costing less than a buck more than the $34, make the $34 a better buy).

    What is a call, it's advantages, and how do you do it? I've heard this term a lot just don't know what it means.

  14. Portfolio Diversification is an individual thing. For me I'm 100% in PM's, have been since 2006. RRSP is made up of Sr's, Mid-Tier & some Jr's miners. 65% Sr's, 25% Mid-Tier & 10% Jr's. My Non-RRSP is made up of 50% Physical in which 25% is Au & the other 25% in Ag. The other 50% is split between 40% Sr's & Jr's and 10% Cash. I do not day trade! It's a rigged casino!

    I realize this is not a typical "Balanced" portfolio but we are not in normal times plus I sleep at night and its been good to me so far. Regarding the current PM market, it sure feels like we are near a bottom. I based this on all the negative bearish talk around PM's in the MSM. The bearish news is getting extreme out there! I love it.

  15. A call is an option to buy an underlying asset at a specific price - so, I bought the right to "buy" GDXJ for $34 in August (it cost my $3.50) - so if GDXJ is higher than $37.50 in late August, I make money (similarly, I can sell my calls anytime before then to take advantage of a favorable move in price). Since GDXJ was >44 very recently, I think that's a great price for the August calls.

    Options can be great tools, but like any other investment, put your hard earned money at risk. There are lots of books or online articles out there. I'd be very reluctant to "trade" any investment (and that's all you can really do with options) until you're very comfortable with them.

  16. Hi Guys,

    What kind of physical MP´s are you buying ? Can you be more specific on that ?


  17. First time posting a comment here. Nice place you have Mr Ferguson. My happy place is being debt free and owning my home free and clear. My investments are heavy on the PM side at 50% equities 30% and 20% cash. I sleep quite well at night. I am not shilling for any particular stock, but John Hathaway has managed the Tocqueville Gold Fund quite nicely for me. TGLDX.

  18. Carlos, hope this helps ....

    Ag - 1oz Coin / Canadian Maples
    - 1oz, 5oz, 10oz, 1kg & 100oz Bars (Scotia, Johnson Matthey)
    Au - 1/4oz Coin / Canadian Maples & Scotia
    - 1oz Coin / Canadian Maples (they are so gorgeous) & Scotia
    - 1oz, 5oz & 10oz Bars (Scotia, Johnson Matthey)

  19. Carlos,

    For silver I'm buying 10oz silver bars and American Silver Eagles. Gold, I buy 1/2 or 1oz Ameican Eagles or Krugerrands.

    Suggest you do not buy semi-numismatics for your first foray (e.g. an MS62 1926 St. Gaudens Duble Eagle). If you're after as much gold and silver for your money, just go with the new stuff.

    I use www.bulliondirect.com and monarchpreciousmetals.com. I've read where others recommend Gainesville Coins, though I've never bought there. Having done business with both for years now, I can tell you that I think Bullion Direct and MPM are both excellent outfits. Completely reliable, with the lowest mark-up on spot prices I can find.

    MPM ships like lightening. Both charge 3% if you use a credit or debit card, that fee is waived if you pay by check. BD takes personal checks and offers no cost storage- - very handy once the beams are groaning under the weight of your home PM stash :-)

    Good luck! Let us know if you have any other questions

  20. Thanks all. I will take attention to your posts.

  21. Carlos:
    For me it's all about minimizing the spread between the buy and the sell, though from past discussions here and on ZH I seem to be alone in that opinion. I'll buy any ugly thing if it's cheap enough.