Freaky Friday

Well, we survived the onslaught last night.

OK, so my 1320 bottom in gold is looking pretty shaky but, you've got to admit, 26.50 in silver is hanging in their like Rocky against Creed. IF 26.50 continues to hold, we will have found a VERY STRONG bottom...one that, if we ever get down there again, you can use as a base price for big, confident purchases. But, that's a big IF.

So far, so good today, We've rebounded overnight and, even though Blythe unleashed her goons right on schedule this morning, price is hanging in there. Astute Turdites will have noticed by now That I've bowed to popular pressure and added a 24-hour copper chart to this page. This will be a temporary add but one that I feel is necessary in the current environment. One thing to note, it shows a spot price which is about 2 points below the March contract that I will continue to reference so, please, factor that into your thoughts when you look at that chart.

That said, look at copper this morning!

This is really, really nice and simply adds more bewilderment to the gold chart. IF we can hold this price and close above the 438 level, we will have had a very good day and we can feel even more confident that we are very near the bottom in the PMs.

Now look at silver...very strong at 26.50. Not ready to proclaim it "stronger than mustard gas" yet, but getting close:

IF we can mount a rally today...and we might...and drive price back UP through 27.20, chances will greatly increase that 26.50 will NOT be significantly breached and we can begin buying with a higher degree of confidence. Any move through 28 and we can declare this correction over.

I leave you with gold. The first thing it needs is a relief, short-covering rally back UP through 1325. Absent that, it almost looks like a waiting game for the next leg down. Yuck.

I'll have a small window of opportunity to update and add thoughts around 11:30-noon EST. Please be sure to check back then. In the meantime, keep the faith and watch copper and crude for clues. TF


NOON EST UPDATE:
Turd happy today.
We are rolling and our bottoms are looking more secure than ever. Let's just keep it up for another 90 minutes or so. If you want something to pull for, watch March silver very closely. A close above $27.80 and we'll have ourselves and UPward outside reversal day and that would be a very big deal. It would almost ensure that last evening saw the low and mean that, though a near re-test was still possible, even that becomes unlikely. Here are your mid-session charts.

Again, a close above 27.80 and a move UP early next week through 28 and we can all breathe a sigh of relief and begin to get very excited. Here's gold, which sure looks a lot better than it did earlier:

Copper has backed off but crude is up almost $4! Its as though the world has awakened to the possibility of revolution in Egypt. Recall that I mentioned last night the The Muslim Brotherhood is now getting behind the "movement". This likely spells doom for the Mubarek government. It also means that the next government will be Islamic law-based, not the current secular dictatorship. Without condoning either, you must understand the implications of this for peace in the Middle East and traffic through the Suez Canal (which is apparently what the crude pit is worried about).
That said, if anyone tries to turn this thread into a pro or anti Israel slugfest, your comments will be deleted. This is my blog and I make the rules. If you want to argue incessantly about Arab-Israeli-US relations, head back to ZeroHedge. Lots of willing accomplices there for you to "discuss" things with.
More after the close. watch $27.80 very, very closely and pray like MCHammer. TF



4:30 EST UPDATE:
This must be brief as Mrs Ferguson and the little turds have some birthday plans for me.
What a terrific day. We managed to get an outside reversal day painted onto the silver chart. This is great news. Lord knows we've sure been on the receiving end of some downward reversals so its nice to have an UPward one. for once. We should fell very confident that we've seen the lows. Next week will most likely bring us significant volatility within a consolidating range before we begin moving back toward $30 and $1400.

If you haven't yet, please read today's update from Trader Dan. As a birthday gift, Dan has summarized most of the main points I would make if I had the time.
http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/28/hourly-action-in-gold-from-trader-dan-397/
I'll post for you a comprehensive week-in-review tomorrow. Until then, thanks for your participation in this wonderful and fun blog. Please tip an adult beverage in my name this evening, kick back and relax and get ready for what will surely be a wild week come Monday. Turd out.