Friday, January 28, 2011

Freaky Friday

Well, we survived the onslaught last night.

OK, so my 1320 bottom in gold is looking pretty shaky but, you've got to admit, 26.50 in silver is hanging in their like Rocky against Creed. IF 26.50 continues to hold, we will have found a VERY STRONG that, if we ever get down there again, you can use as a base price for big, confident purchases. But, that's a big IF.

So far, so good today, We've rebounded overnight and, even though Blythe unleashed her goons right on schedule this morning, price is hanging in there. Astute Turdites will have noticed by now That I've bowed to popular pressure and added a 24-hour copper chart to this page. This will be a temporary add but one that I feel is necessary in the current environment. One thing to note, it shows a spot price which is about 2 points below the March contract that I will continue to reference so, please, factor that into your thoughts when you look at that chart.

That said, look at copper this morning!
This is really, really nice and simply adds more bewilderment to the gold chart. IF we can hold this price and close above the 438 level, we will have had a very good day and we can feel even more confident that we are very near the bottom in the PMs.

Now look at silver...very strong at 26.50. Not ready to proclaim it "stronger than mustard gas" yet, but getting close:
IF we can mount a rally today...and we might...and drive price back UP through 27.20, chances will greatly increase that 26.50 will NOT be significantly breached and we can begin buying with a higher degree of confidence. Any move through 28 and we can declare this correction over.

I leave you with gold. The first thing it needs is a relief, short-covering rally back UP through 1325. Absent that, it almost looks like a waiting game for the next leg down. Yuck.
I'll have a small window of opportunity to update and add thoughts around 11:30-noon EST. Please be sure to check back then. In the meantime, keep the faith and watch copper and crude for clues. TF

Turd happy today.
We are rolling and our bottoms are looking more secure than ever. Let's just keep it up for another 90 minutes or so. If you want something to pull for, watch March silver very closely. A close above $27.80 and we'll have ourselves and UPward outside reversal day and that would be a very big deal. It would almost ensure that last evening saw the low and mean that, though a near re-test was still possible, even that becomes unlikely. Here are your mid-session charts.
Again, a close above 27.80 and a move UP early next week through 28 and we can all breathe a sigh of relief and begin to get very excited. Here's gold, which sure looks a lot better than it did earlier:
Copper has backed off but crude is up almost $4! Its as though the world has awakened to the possibility of revolution in Egypt. Recall that I mentioned last night the The Muslim Brotherhood is now getting behind the "movement". This likely spells doom for the Mubarek government. It also means that the next government will be Islamic law-based, not the current secular dictatorship. Without condoning either, you must understand the implications of this for peace in the Middle East and traffic through the Suez Canal (which is apparently what the crude pit is worried about).
That said, if anyone tries to turn this thread into a pro or anti Israel slugfest, your comments will be deleted. This is my blog and I make the rules. If you want to argue incessantly about Arab-Israeli-US relations, head back to ZeroHedge. Lots of willing accomplices there for you to "discuss" things with.
More after the close. watch $27.80 very, very closely and pray like MCHammer. TF

This must be brief as Mrs Ferguson and the little turds have some birthday plans for me.
What a terrific day. We managed to get an outside reversal day painted onto the silver chart. This is great news. Lord knows we've sure been on the receiving end of some downward reversals so its nice to have an UPward one. for once. We should fell very confident that we've seen the lows. Next week will most likely bring us significant volatility within a consolidating range before we begin moving back toward $30 and $1400.

If you haven't yet, please read today's update from Trader Dan. As a birthday gift, Dan has summarized most of the main points I would make if I had the time.
I'll post for you a comprehensive week-in-review tomorrow. Until then, thanks for your participation in this wonderful and fun blog. Please tip an adult beverage in my name this evening, kick back and relax and get ready for what will surely be a wild week come Monday. Turd out.


  1. Thanks TF - in the meantime someone lit a fuse and its just went off....

  2. Lady Wynter's latest is a doozy -- explains a lot.

    Any insights Turd?


    Here is the reason why silver might be at a bottom. Yesterday, there was an increase of 1300 contracts in the Mar OI. Most assuredly, the buyers of these contracts will not have a liquidity issue and can stand for delivery if needed. Look at the massive contractions in the Feb gold contracts. The OI for Feb gold started the week at 213,000 contracts and now has only 54,000 contracts left. How many of these contracts will actually stand for delivery starting on Tues/Wed of next week? Around 10,000 contracts.

    The same thing will apply to the Mar OI as we approach March 1st. Right now the Mar OI is 67,413. How many of these contracts will stand for delivery? If we based it on last year's number then only 3,800 will stand for delivery like last Jan 09. If we base it on the last month of Dec 2010, then around 5,200 contracts will stand for delivery. Of course last Jan 09, close to 4,000 contracts were actually delivered while in Dec 2010 only 1845 contracts were delivered. Now do you see the problem?

    First of all, like I stated earlier, our group will not be buying until after the first week of February. There are some who said I was inconsistent when I suggested that it was our group who was buying the Mar contracts yesterday. I clearly speculated that Blythe realized that she was selling contracts to "these people" whom she thought would stand for delivey come March. Clearly I was right, as there was an increase of 1,300 contracts in the Mar OI today. I do not know for a fact that "these people" were in fact buying, but by the way the price stopped going down, I suspected as much.

  3. Lady Wynter cont:

    Which gets us back to what will happen as March 1st approaches. The last thing that Blythe wants is for the Comex to show anywhere near 10,000 (or 20,000) contracts standing for delivery come March 1st. Even if she managed to pay enough people off and make physical delivery on a few thousand contracts, it would signal to the world that the Comex had to pay people off because they couldnt deliver the physical. That is what happened in December as Comex started paying people off in order to show only 5,200 contracts standing for delivery instead of a much bigger number. Of course, Comex only delivered on 1,845 contracts, so how would it have looked had 10,000 contracts stood for delivery?

    The other way to pay people off is to spike the price of silver as March 1st approach thereby enticing people to sell and making it that much more difficult to raise the cash and stand for delivery.

    Which gets us to the financing part of the story. Suppose we want to accumulate enough contracts to raid Comex and we wanted to finance a 1 million ounce purchase (this is a strictly hypothetical illustration). The current price is $27 which means we need $27 million to deposit on March 1st. Suppose a hedge fund had only 5 million and needed to borrow 22 million to finance the purchase. This means that even if the hedgies got silver delivered, it can withstand a 5 dollar decline before it would be forced to liquidate. That is the risk if somehow Blythe found enough silver to deliver 1 million ounces. Now imagine the risk if the price of silver were at $36. The same 1 million ounces would now need $31 million to finance and the risk is much larger should there be delivery. Of course, if Blythe doesnt want the Comex to show a huge number of contracts standing for delivery come March 1st, then she must spike the price of silver to make it more difficult to finance and to accumulate enough contracts to effectively blackmail her.

    These are the dynamics that hedge funds will face in Feb as they decide how much and when to accumulate the contracts. Again I will not have much input into these decisions. My purpose is to inform as much of the public as possible about the dire situation at the Comex in particular and silver in general. My financial fortune will be tied to what silver does as March 1st approaches. Good luck to physical silver holders.

  4. So now take that info in conjunction with the post on KWN about all 100 oz bars disappearing soon.

    And with the unrest in Egypt and possibly the Suez.

    And a poser last night made a VERY intriguing comment about the on again off again Iran-Israel conflict -- that could go off at any time, and the more I think about it, when wold be better for TPTB than right about now, or March.

    Call it conspiracy threory, shoot the messenger.

    But there are just TOO MANY threads coming together.

  5. Even if we go a bit lower in the metals, they are a buy. They're looking to form a bottom, and the worst I can see for silver is down another 5-6% at most, which is looking unlikely.

    Still, I won't buy strength until the trend turns up. Before that, I'll only buy into the selloffs.

  6. Guys, don´t you see what´s happening ? The moment Turd said it was his birthday, the market want to give him a GREAt PRESENT and push up our "girls" (Gold & Silver) :-)

    Happy Birthday Turd.

  7. Silver on the run! Looks like you might get a birthday gift afterall Turd!

    Best wishes for the new year ahead for you!

  8. Cris: you sound like that dude from "A Beautiful Mind" ;)

  9. Nice rise so far, sitting at 27.27 now.

    Just wanting to mention an ariticle I read about how the Egyptian government shut down the countries internet. And we have Obama requesting an "Internet Kill Switch" lately here in the US...

    And this just in, via Zerohedge, Syria just shutdown their Internet services.

  10. Watched silver get hammered yesterday evening. Punched through 26.50 down to ~26.44. Bought the f'n dip at $26.46 with plenty of ammo to spare. Punches through 26.50 again and I step back up.

  11. Come on don't get Turd's hopes up. Turd this whole thing is going to come crashing down soon. They're just trying to pump up your mood this morning so they can destroy it later and ruin your birthday. Don't let 'em :)

  12. Turd,

    Which one -- the schizophrenic? LOL

  13. Eric, DaddyO, thanks for your comments on the
    IRA, debt reduction vs. physical metal stuff.
    I love this market but, I tend to let the fear
    and greed reduce my profits.

  14. Happy Birthday Big Hat.

    Metals are screaming higher right now, let's hope your bday mojo keeps workin'

  15. Tim-
    Oh yeah, Fear and Greed are my constant companions. Just gotta keep them under lock and key as best you can.

  16. Too much fear developing folks with the overseas contagion a REAL possibility now....THIS THING MAY EXPLODE if they don't stomp on these revolts......I have no idea if they can stop it...but if this worsens gold and silver is going through the roof in the near term

  17. Here's to all the bankster fraudster silver bullion vaults being emptied coast to roast!

  18. Meet The Man Behind The Liquidating Hedge Fund That Blew Up The Gold Market

    Very nice gold action going on right now!

  19. Turd, 1325$ step in $gold made. :-) Nice birthday for you i suppose. Do you offer beers to your followers at the ending-day ? ;-)

  20. Happy B'day, Turdmeister!

    Man, I'm glad I bailed out of my ZSL a couple days ago.... :-O

    And even with the Dow down, the miners are headed up....and that's a good thing.

    Do you think Blythe will sing for you ala Marilyn Monroe?

  21. The Nostradamus/Nostradumbass comment was a more telling bottom indicator to me than other signals. That kind of capitulation is how I have felt at bottoms and would be feeling if I had front month options right now. So-Way to call it!

  22. ..and happy birthday! Maybe you're going to get a birthday rally!

  23. As I predicted, the euro is tanking, which is causing the SPX to fall and gold to rise. This may continue as the euro finishes its descent from 2008, until around May.;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

  24. looking better but wouldn't get over confident just yet.

  25. dd.....the bigger moves in gold will be coupled with the fear trade. This can FREQENTLY occur with a DECOUPLING from the dollar which is why I don't put as much stock in worrying about Turds dollar charts. I am more interested in ALL fiat currencies and their lack of CONfidence. Fear also takes many forms including political stability and today is certainly an example. Just remember GOLD as a trade is NOT a "one trick pony". I have followed this trade for a long time and gold has had many moves WITH a strenghtening dollar...look at late 2008 and 2009


  27. Only live video feed of Egyptian uprising that I know of. Figured it's a little relevant to our upswing in metals today and has already been mentioned in other comments so I'll share it before they cut it off. Viva la revolucion!

  28. Happy Birthday from Nepal Turd!!!!

  29. Just Another Post on Gold (by Gary Tanashian)
    The signs come in fast and furious now. The gold analyst talking in December about a February upside explosion to above 2000/oz., now talks about money being made on the short side for at least the next 6 months. Large speculators have been reeled in significantly on the CoT, the public opinion of gold - sorry, I pay for this service and cannot reproduce the data here for free - is good to go, and then there are the technical downside targets, which NFTRH has had loaded for weeks now, coming into view.

    Trend followers are doing what they always do and for some reason, when people read things on the internet with titles like 'Gold Loses Critical Support', they get their pants all bunched up. A topping pattern appeared in gold back in December. From this pattern, there were several downside potentials, none of which - including the remote prospect of a test of the massive support at 1000 - should be causing heartburn right now.

    In the precious metals sector, you operate on a risk vs. reward basis, strap in for volatility and as I have long said, let FEAR RIDE SHOTGUN. Embrace it. Don't be a sissy, as Jonathan would say. This is the only way to make long term gains and out perform the herd. Be brave when they are sucking their thumbs.

    You have no idea how often I am negatively reinforced, like when the intelligent deflationist took a well spoken exception to my bullish stance on oil in early 2009. When I was told by a financial professional and former subscriber, why treasury bond yields were going down and my 'rates rising' stance was incorrect in Q4 of 2010. And now with gold, we have the ultimate contrarian opportunity in the asset that is contrary the vast, inflated mess of global assets.

    Year after year it's the same market, same players, same dynamics, same herd. The wash, rinse, repeat cycle whirring away. Winners and loser to be sorted out soon enough... again.

  30. Hey dd,

    Favorite quote from the article "I was in the process of closing anyway."

  31. re: Egypt/Syria & Internet Kill Switch in US... wouldn't get activated until AFTER a complete economic or banking collapse. Idiotic concept, no e-trade, no online banking, no gas pump credit card usage, no ATMs, no credit card retail usage, CSCO/AMZN/NFLX/PCLN/APPL/etc all tank to zero (there goes the "recovery")

    M E situation is a huge wild card, fascinating

  32. Turd,

    Love your blog, been following it from the start. Serious question though, from a guy with a little PHYS in an IRA: if the gold decline was caused by one fat guy unwinding his hedges, then what to make of all your [and everyone else's] analysis over the last month?

  33. TRE moonshot last three days; all leading up to Feb 22 annual stockholders mtg.
    This stock will be three digits within 2 years

  34. James-

    Great Point. Just keep your eye on the long term fundamentals. Short term technicals will drive you batshit. Fear and Greed will eat you alive.

  35. James I don't think anybody blamed the entire decline of gold on this one trader. What they're saying is that it spooked the markets further when they saw the liquidation and led to the continued sell off that we saw yesterday. If true, then that increases the odds that Turd's bottom is in.

    Turd's bottom. lol

  36. Woohoo I was right. Buyers of size just b4 expiry. Now for a small dip after then what?


    You gotta be kidding. That's just trying to make fun of us, right there.

  38. flaunt: "turd's bottom"! I love it! I'm definitely going to use that as a title to an upcoming post!

  39. Happy Birthday Turd!
    Turdite? I prefer to be called a Turdling, please.

  40. I'm watching Cairo in chaos live on Al Jazeera....and the national museum, all those treasures, in possible jeopardy from the fire at the NDP headquarters next door.

    Alexandria ...people in the street,

    Suez? something may start anytime...if police are meeting up with protesters as reported...

  41. Turd, can you please have more birthdays?

  42. Is it time to pile back into trading positions?

  43. I prefer Turdicle.

    @Insight- The Egyptian riots are quite something to watch on live-stream- I guess the revolution will be televised.

    And I very much doubt an internet kill switch would be used in the US- aside form the outrage it would cause, all major grocery chains are on Just In Time supply system through the internet for food distribution to stores... no internet, no food. Ain't happening.

  44. WOW... i truly think the Market has given you a tremendous Birthday present today Turd! congrats on your call and sticking to it.... it reiterated my positions and kept me long from yesterday till now! everything all Green today!

  45. Kevin: Yes, perhaps my pseudo-capitulation last evening came at the low.
    At any rate, this thread has been updated. Please check it out.

  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

  47. One very weird week. But none the less it seems the bull has taken its scheduled dump and is off and trotting again. Guess its PMs pmgold Monday for me.

    Anyone and ideas what the market dump will do to minor miners?

  48. Die! jpig morgue! Die! Hearing 10 an ounce it's costing them to cover silver shorts! jamminie demon at davos down graded to motel 6!!

  49. Pat,
    Why do you see TRE at 3 digits within 2 years? I own it, but know liitle about it apart from that Santa is the Chairman and that he entered into royalty sharing agreements with the govt of Tanzania.

  50. Why does it look like PMs are positively correlated with USDX? does not make sense....

  51. Egyptian tanks sent to attack the protesters just had their crews pile out to shake hands with their countrymen and women.

    A metals rebound AND the sweet smell of Liberty.

    Quite the birthday present for you Turd!

  52. Dennis Gartman just said on CNBS that 1311 was probably the low in Gold! Surprise, surprise...can't wait till Harvey rips him a new butt hole tonight.

  53. @ Paul Breed: flight to safety. Look at pms, oil, usdx and treasuries... It's fear ON.

  54. Gartman said he tried to buy yesterday AH but could never catch it......hehhehehehe.....watta shmuck

  55. This comment has been removed by the author.

  56. Turd,

    Is it your "Turdy Turd" birthday??

    Happy Birthday!

  57. Happy birthday Turd! Could you arrange them more often? :)

    p.s. Word verification was "sherif". A sheriff in a yellow hat!

  58. Glad you insisted on no religious craziness, thanks

  59. I'm sending in my recommendation to the Holiday Committee to ask that EVERY day be Turd's birthday...Happy Turdthday, gains for eevvverybody!

  60. Turd: May your birthday's always be this magical!

  61. Looking awesome into the close. Will be interesting to see what develops over the weekend in the middle east.

    Very happy birthday for Turd.

  62. Lets hope at Blythes birthday the comex busts.
    Happy birthday Turd and thank you.

  63. It's 12:30 and I've got 27.91.
    Congrats and be happy everyone...for now.

  64. You don't think they will fight 28 do you???hehehe

  65. Last night, when silver breached the dreaded 26.50 mark, if you would have told me we would touch 28.000 less than 18 hours later, I would have said you were delusional. What an interesting ride this is.

    That said, many commenters on this site noted how the PM takedown just didn't pass the smell test: QE 2infinity proclaimed, exploding M2, silver shortages being reported from many sources, yet in the face of a falling USD gold and silver tank? I said it last night and now I am more certain- that action stank of an engineered "get out of dodge" window for big shorts. Look at the 3-day Kitco overlay chart- bizarre takedown yesterday, then an almost mirror image bounceback today? That was a gift to the big fish to cover shorts or take out balancing longs, but somebody realized there aren't enough fingers to plus all the holes in the dike. So they sold the last tickets overnight, and now this train is leaving the station.

    February is going to be epic.

  66. NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!

    Happy Birthday Turd :)

  67. DD,

    Start here.
    - starting to bulk sample and produce at Kigosi site, and Lunguya; the big 100 ton crushers arrived in Dec, will be operational very soon
    - There is big big bucks behind this company; Sinclair wants to be a junior miner a very short period, and move to medium size quickly
    - they won the Buckreef bid agianst 3 other bidders
    - Sinclair's approach is very unique; treating Tanzania as a partner, to the betterment of Tanzanians, infrastructure, and money for the farming industry
    - besides gold, there ar base metal ie, nickel and diamonds
    - Once they are producing, they will pay dividends in GOLD. Oh yeah, oh yeah. I've heard 40% of profits to fund organic growth, 60% payout in divvies.
    - the crushers shown at link are producing gold using gravity method ( top gravel holds around 3-10g/ton; costs ~$50 to extract ).
    - under the gravel they have hit very tich veins in the underlying quartz reefs; much more gold/ton than the gravel

  68. 2:20 PM ET...looks like a volatility squeeze sitting there on /SI as it hangs around 27.75...
    Wonder if this is due to lunch hour? Should be doing something, I expect, soon....

  69. Pat,
    I was looking on that website you linked, where do you see that they pay dividends in gold at? that's very interesting and I'm thinking about jumping on board...

  70. Report From The Front:

    So I had decided early this morning I was going out to find 10 decent ounces of silver in this one horse town if it killed me. Just Because. Just so I could feel like I was doing my part to stick it to those bastards.

    So I go back to the place I reported on a couple days ago, the one that had only Merry Christmas and Happy Father's Day bars. What I didn't tell you was there were a couple of pretty ugly 10 oz bars in the case too. I thought I'd go back and grab one of those. Well I get there and the place is swamped with people(it was a dead zone two days ago), and sure enough those bars are long gone.

    So I hop in the car and zip over to what is really about my #3 or #4 favorite place. The guy who runs it is kind of wierd and annoying but the good part is he always always has silver.

    I just walk in the door and he tells me I'm a day late and he was practically wiped out yesterday! He still has Eagles, which I don't like to pay up for, and he still has Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday at very cheap, but I kind of like that happy medium in between. Standard premium but still recognizable private mint stuff that you see on a regular basis. Well that's just what he's cleaned out of. He hunted around every nook and crany in the store and found maybe 20 rounds I could pick from and I picked, picked, picked until I found 8 that I liked, and grabbed 2 stinkers just to make an even 10.

    If your town is anything like mine, it's slim pickens out there. If you are buying in size you'll need to go online and then wait weeks for delivery.

  71. cmill--
    Years ago, FCX used to have some gold denominated and silver denominated preferred stock, but I think they retired those long, long ago.

  72. Cmill,

    What you read is deep DD, not common knowledge

  73. Eric: Like I said before, it is a sign that the dip has bottomed out when you can't buy any.

  74. Eric, there are notable exceptions to your point about shipping. The thing I like about is that they show what's in stock, and you can only order what's in stock.

    To avoid a 3% fee I seldom use credit card, but when I have, MPM ships same day. They're in Washington State, I'm in NY and it still gets here like yesterday.

    I'm just a happy customer, no interests aside from saying so. So fellow Turdites, be aware of the MPM option.

  75. ewc-
    Yeah, those poured bars from Monarch are kind of cool....

  76. I second the term turdlings. It rolls off the tongue nicely.

    I am at home with my family away from my screens. I checked my phone and pm's were rippin.

    It's like all of a sudden shit finally mattered today.

    Efficient markets my ass.

  77. ewc-
    just checked out Monarch for the first time in a while. They used to pretty much stick to their own in house poured bars, but they have really expanded their product line since last I checked. Didn't really look at price or anything but looks to be more of a full service PM retailer than in days of yore.

  78. Turdicle, sounds like I should be licked (Ok, not so bad)

    Turdling: hell, I'm 53!

    Turdite to me kinda sounds like one is a citizen. But of where? Turdistan? Turdland? Turdville? Turdburgh (for the Steelers fans) or Turd Bay (if you swing Cheesehead)

    Turd, maybe you can make a ruling. Or maybe run a competition here. It scares me to think of what the awesome creativity on tap here could do with such an opportunity...

  79. T.Ferguson The most Interesting Man in the WORLD!

    His Mom has a tattoo that reads "Turd"

    Happy Birthday!! Stay Thirsty my Friend.

    Turd 2012

  80. Yeah Eric, you're absolutely right. As they've grown, I've seen all manner of bars and rounds, not just their own pours (which are excellent).

    It seems like they carry anything that gets sold into MPM. It varies heavily so it's worth checking in now and then. Case in point, a few weeks back I saw a positively stunning 1Kg First Majestic bar and snapped that sucker up in an instant. Way cool chunk of Ag: a bead-blasted finish except for the logo and inscriptions, which are high gloss.

    Haven't seen one since, but do like to check their selection a few times a week just to see what's in.

    MPM is also a small, family outfit and are extremely nice and conscientious business owners.

  81. Happy birthday Turd and my silver be 100 / oz at your next one :).

  82. Silver trying hard to take 28 down.

  83. Anything but Turdberries.

    Turd, I can't thank you enough for reining in the ZH crowd.

    Happy Birthday!

  84. Turdophiles? LOL...

    Happy Birthday and Aloha from Maui Turd!

    Bay of Pigs

    PS The gold trolls have gone silent over at ZH. One named Bileaf continues to spew his hatred and venom at Mish's blog for those who want to smackdown another gold douche. I gave him my best shot. ;o)

  85. ewc-
    If they are relying on a lot of their product for whatever people sell them, then that will also be a good indicator as to what's going on in the market. I get a little weary of hearing about all the things that APMEX is backordered on all the time. That's why I like to go out into the coin shops to get a feel for it. I'll leave it to you to keep us updated as to whether MPM seems to be thin or flush with inventory.

  86. Turd,
    I don't know a ton about technical analysis, but just from experience I've seen those "outside reversal days" be good as gold many many times. Totally worth betting on.

  87. ewc58,
    Thanks for sharing that site. Been looking to add a new place to do business with besides just gainesvillecoins. Love MPM's weight options and the poured bars looks sweet!

  88. Access market close over 28 sure would be sweet.

  89. Turd, you're being outbid by Eric Sprott!

    Latest from KWN:

    Eric Sprott - Expect $50 Silver, Gold Possibly $2,150 by Spring$50_Silver,_Gold_Possibly_$2,150_by_Spring.html

  90. grande Turd,! eres un fenomeno!, Feliz Cumpleanos desde la parte del mundo...The Turdway to do things.

  91. Alf, glad I could help a fellow Turdophile (nice one bay, I kinda like that).

    Eric & all: MPM has 24 of their own 10 oz silver bars on hand, another 18 from NTR (Northern Territorial Mint). Also:

    25 oz bars: 7
    1 kg (32.15 oz): 2
    50 oz: 8
    100 oz: 6

    They have 2075 ASE's and 1470 Maples on hand. As Alf mentioned, they offer their own silver bars in 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 oz sizes.

    Ok Eric I did my bit, now all y'all- - go clean 'em out!

    Have a great weekend everyone

  92. I had one of those 10 oz poured MPM bars once. Traded it away on something else somewhere along the line. Sad Face.

    Wish I still had it, considering the crap I bought today.

  93. Turd: "Please tip an adult beverage in my name this evening, kick back and relax"

    Done and Done.

  94. Happy Birthday and thanks for all your work! Do your kids know that you refer to them as "little turds"? LOL

  95. Hope everybody took and is taking the opportunity with the depressed silver and gold prices. In physical and miners.

    I recall reading that gold miners did quite well during the Great Depression.

  96. [PS The gold trolls have gone silent over at ZH]

    Quite so. I don't understand the small mentality of trolls, on gold, silver, race, religion and so forth. It isn't necessary and says more about the person than the subject.

    If people are sick of reading about gold or silver they should simply scroll past, simple really.

  97. And Happy Birthday by the way. Seems you put yourself through the mill these past few days. Time to relax and smile. For a little while at least things are back to reality.

  98. Turd, first of all Happy B-Day!

    Secondly, I would like to compliment you in the way you are managing your blog. There is no need for politics or religious issues here. I come here to educate myself on PM's. That is the only reason! I am amazed at the knowledge on here. Let's keep it that way. Thank you.

  99. silverpaine--
    yeah, folks were supposed to turn in their gold coins to the bank, but google yourself up an old chart of Homestake Mining from the 30's and it's a beauty!

  100. Here's one that only took a few seconds to find:

  101. homestake-mining - quite some chart.

    Best bet I guess are miners with 'low' borrowings and low geopolitical risk.

    Would have been great if this PM reversal didn't happen until Monday as today's drop in equities and PMs would have dipped quite a few miners to tasty levels and is what I was hanging out for.

    Oh well can't be too greedy.

  102. The new Jim Rickards interview over at KWN is very very good. Plus there's also the blog entry from Eric Sprott that someone mentioned earlier. Can't wait until Sat am for the Weekly Wrap! Should be a doozy.

  103. Eric,

    Just listened to the Rickards interview. I really like the guy in a sense he's a straight-shooter that has a macro approach.

    On a side note, someone posted a while back on Turd's blog about Lindsey Williams (the guy who claims he knows the "elites") and if I recall, the November tape mentioned that there would be a Middle Eastern "conflict" in 4-5 months. Well, we're at or around 3 months and Egypt is having quite a stir worldwide it appears. Then again, the Iran news stories seem to be on the back burner. Not that I believe the guy 100%, but I surely am keeping those time frames in my head. He also mentioned that the Euro would tank first, then 3-4 weeks or so the dollar would collapse.

    Sorry about getting all NWO in here, just wanted to point it out in case anyone else was thinking about that.

  104. Eric- - I heard it this afternoon, Rickards is always good. King loves the guy. And yeah, after this wild week I can't wait to hear Dan Norcini in his usual Metals Wrap gig either. Bill Haynes too.

    Meanwhile at, Chris Waltzek has Celente and Prechter lined up. Ok so I won't bother with Prechter, but Celente is always a fun listen. Chris has Bob Chapman on each week too. That's worth the entry fee right there ;-)

  105. Turd,
    Within only a couple hours of the final bottom, I called it here:

    We aren't going back. I know that for a fact. Ask bitch Blythe yourself:

  106. Turd, Happy birthday by the way. After getting a chance to read all the other posts today, I've got to say that those that are saying this "might" be a bottom are dead wrong. Last night was the bottom. We aren't going back. Its going to be a rapid climb and physical is going to be hard to get, but I promise you we hit the bottom.

    We're going to exceed your $1600/oz gold call by over $200. Thats right: I'm calling $1800 in place of the $1600 you called. Thats not to say you're wrong -- because you're right, we're on the fast track and the fundamentals have not changed.

    Unfortunately this all ends in a big tragedy that I cannot make a call on. The PMs will keep the family fed and safe for a while, but don't trust blindly. We're about to hit a little turbulence here in the good ole US of A.

  107. Happy Birthday Turd! This is your Turd Godson, I want to thank you for all of the very helpful insight. I will for sure be able to use this in the coming years of my adulthood. The "David and Goliath" cliche is too worn out, I very much appreciated the Rocky reference. Sister Turd and Brother-in-Law Turd say happy birthday and thanks for everything you do!

  108. *** Hey Turd, YOU ARE FAMOUS! ***

    SilverFuturist youtube blogger mentions "Turd Furgeson" in his latest piece:

  109. Turdburgers? Eeeeeeewww.

    If the situation in Egypt calms down then perhaps this quick rise will reverse just as quick?

  110. I've been thinking about Wynter Benton's public plan to use the Comex and JPM as a giant ATM machine in March, and I think I've identified a risk.

    Let's assume that what we've heard is legit. A small group of traders overbought Comex ability to deliver in Dec and were paid handsome premiums to settle in cash. Since there's never too much of a good thing, they're gearing up for a much larger raid in March. Let's also assume JPM is on the other side of the bulk of those contracts. What would JPM do?

    What JPM really doesn't want is to allow this trade to be repeatable. And the best way to do that is to actually deliver silver on some of these contracts.

    Let's say 10k contracts stand for delivery in Mar. 4K is a pretty normal number (or was last year) so 10k is a huge increase. If you can identify which buyers are just in it for the cash premium, pick a random third or quarter of them and actually deliver silver to them. They're fucked. Not only are they sitting on a huge pile of silver they didn't want, but all that premium-grab-trade-driven ramp in March is about to come out of the price, and there are hedgies with piles of silver eagles in their lobbies that they're looking to unload. So a couple of bucks drop in the price in March really hoses those guys, since they're probably margined to the hilt to do this trade in the first place.

    Net result is that 3/4 of the hedgies make some bank on the trade, and the other 1/4 get stuck with the physical they didn't want, and a likely loss on it. Now, the NEXT delivery month, what hedgie is going to make that bet again, with a 25% chance of failure? Answer: none. Trade off.

    JPM accumulating physical to fuck the hedgies in March would certainly explain the physical shortage we see today.

    Someone tell me what I've missed, and why I'm wrong. Wynter, are you out there?

  111. Biosci,

    You are not wrong at all.

    Wynter herself said as much.

    They are in it for the bucks. It may very well fall to a countermeasure in May.

    That STILL doesn't dissuade them from trying it in March when it could be spectactularly successful.

    Trying to piece together what price points Wynter refers to. She said two more dollars before Feb 8. The takeoff to what $35? $37? $45... who knows.

  112. ewc58-

    My understanding is that KWN taped their Weekly Wrap stuff on Thursday, so they won't be speaking with benefit of knowing what happened today, but Thursday was pretty intense all by itself, as all on this board know too well.

  113. Do you buy into the notion that one poker-playin' buffoon single-handedly did all the damage of the previous few days?

  114. I doubt the huge JP Morgue short position survives past 35 or so. The top comes off.

    Happy Birthday Turd!

  115. @Biosci-

    That is an outstanding game-theory style analysis of this situation- well done. I would think the probability of your hypothesis would depend on a few things, so lets think out loud on this:
    1. How does your estimate of 1/3 rd or 1/4th of 10k contracts compare to the 15 million ounces Sprott just spent 10 weeks trying to get? Would they have enough time to accumulate?
    2. The strategy you outlined would depend on the 'taking delivery' option being hell for the hedgies... would it really be that bad? Would they HAVE to re-sell immediately or could they just sit tight on these new assets- assets worth more than the price of the original contracts they purchased.
    3. And if the hedgies saw this coming, they could just ratchet down the borrowing but keep the same general strategy, right?

    Very good to think through, anyway.

  116. Happy Birthday, Turd...

    May the silver rocket carry you to wherever you want to go!

  117. Pining for Fjords,

    I think Biosci argument while well reasoned is fundamentally flawed exactly for the reasons you point out.

    #1. 30% of 10K contracts is 3,000, each x 5,000 ozs = exactly the same 15 million ounces it just took Sprott 10 weeks to accumulate. Factor in the KWN report od disappearing 100oz bars and the record sale of 5 million Eagles at the Mint.

    2. Explain again Biosci why you would assume someone would be UNhappy with actually having silver delivered to them in massive quantities. Don't we ALL agree, prob even JPM, that physical silver is an EXTREMELY valuable asset.

  118. TF-
    congratulations on your call.
    I have learned so much from reading your blog over the last few weeks (I'm new to ZH and your blog).

    A few days ago, there was some stuff posted about defaults on muni bonds and the pensions of the elderly.

    We should not permit the pension funds to be stolen by the big banks.

    You and I both know where that pension money went and how it got there.

    Replenishment of those funds by those who are entering the workforce is not their responsibility. The funds were already collected and were already "invested".

    We should take care to NOT allow the bankers and their lobby to create divisive politics between generations.

    The reality is that the young can learn from the old and together the middle class can defend their wealth by converting to silver and gold.

    That is the reason the pension fund argument is being made now. The attempts by Gingrich and others to push state bankruptcy as a model shows just how bad the situation has become.

    Does the GOP honestly believe that the voters will support theft and default as a viable model?

    What hubris in the GOP!

  119. Biosci, its a great theory. I truly like it. The problem is that retail sales of silver are up dramatically. JPM might very well attempt what you say, but the retail buy-and-hold demand is so strong right now there is no way in hell JPM could succeed if they tried.

  120. @Cris-
    I have enjoyed reading your comments.
    Regarding the value of the silver in question, I have come to realize that the value of "assets" is not a fixed number.

    The value of "assets" varies by the perspective of the other party.

    It is folly to assume that the same asset distribution has the same value to ALL people.

    For instance, we would likely agree that a bunch of AAA-Moody's rated MBS paper is about worth the same amount as a jumbo pack of Charmin at the local Costco. However, to SocGen, BoE, Citi, and AIG that roll of Charmin is a unique blend of wonderful paper and is really worth several hundred million dollars.

    Now, if one guy thinks that 10,000,000 ounce stack of silver is "unwanted", that guy is schizoid because that "guy" was the one who bought that set of futures contracts and demanded delivery. NOBODY putting 10M ounces of futures contracts in place is going to refuse shipment of silver in these conditions.

    They could take shipment, store it for one year, and after QE3 and QE4, roll that silver out for $200 an ounce.

    AND, then, how much would Blythe and her merry band of "yes masters" want to pay for that silver?

    She's catching QE-n cash on one hand and converting to position in the other. So, she doesn't care WHO is selling, just that somebody is.

    Those hedge funds taking shipment are BM's biggest Exlax.

  121. Jess ( once posted that a Comex default could increase Gold by 50x overnight.

    I think silver could be more extreme. No QEx needed. Who wants to be a millionaire?

  122. Jack, a gold default is totally different than a silver default. Why? Because there are HUGE hoards of gold in vaults all over the world. Silver is a necessity for certain products as well as a very special metal for a # of other reasons. There are not huge hoards of it sitting in vaults (comparatively). Gold won't default because the central banks will just dump physical on the market and meet physical demands for a time... until people then sell it back to the govts & central banks when interest rates rise. Silver doesn't work that way. No central bank can dump hoards of silver into the market because no central bank has hoards to dump. Industry demands silver. People demand silver for currency in times of debasement (also known as inflation & hyper-inflation; which are two totally different cows, btw). Silver default is very likely at the Comex. Gold default would only happen when Fort Knox runs dry (possibly already?), the NY Fed has dumped all its gold and foreign banks gold that it holds, and the IMF all dump their hoards of gold... and market demand still wants more. That is one HELL of a lot of gold! You will never see Gold default like that.

  123. @Cris,

    To reply to your points...

    #1. Maybe physical has been so hard to come by _because_ JPM has been soaking up as much as possible, knowing this event was coming. It's not like Wynter has been subtle - she's been talking about this for months. Granted, I don't actually believe this -- it's too conspiracy-oriented for me.

    #2. The hedgies absolutely do not want the physical. They're not in this for a buy-and-hold trade, and the leverage would kill them. You and I might be happy with a pile of silver but if they play in this space at all it will be with paper, not coin.

  124. Lindsey Williams... Not sure if he's a crackpot but here he is talking about something that happened at the Comex recently. Anybody know what he's talking about?

  125. Bio, one would assume being hedgers they'd have a backup plan for the case where they end up taking delivery. For example they could have buyers lined up that will take the silver off their hands at a modest discount. I'm sure someone in China would be more than willing. It's the risk they take. My gut tells me that due to the extreme delays Sprott has had getting volumes of physical, JPM would find it too risky to let go of the silver they have. There's risk for both JPM and the funds, it's not a one-way street.

  126. @Fjords,

    Same as above. First, I'd assume JPM has been accumulating for some time. Second, the 3,000 contracts Cris mentions is indeed 15M oz but that isn't that much in context; there were nearly 2000 contracts open on 11/30 (, or see Harvey) and Dec was a low delivery month (although because of the cash settlements, I'm sure. But for cash settlements to be happening in December, JPM would have known this was coming in March by mid-November at the very latest. So while Blythe might not have monkeys at coins shops, I bet she's got a few of those 100oz bars under her bed.

    2. Assets that may or may not be worth more. I would expect price to be artificially inflated at the end of Feb because of the extra demand. So maybe a $2 drop in early Mar (wild speculation here). And no, they don't want the physical because whoever they're borrowing from to juice this trade does not want to be paid back in silver.

    3. And this is the best part - no, without inside knowledge (e.g. of JPM accumulating physical), the hedgies would not see it coming. The first indication would be a massive deposit to the dealer or customer inventory the day after settlement.

    Just sayin'.

  127. @flaunt

    Good call -- they'd be smart to have someone lined up. But that doesn't undermine the point of this whole exercise: that even if some of the hedgies make a fat premium off the March stand for delivery trade, some of them don't. And if some don't, no one will go for it again in May.

  128. Biosci, my perception is that the fundamentals with respect to silver are just too good. If they are lucky enough to be awarded delivery of silver, they can kick back while the value of that silver doubles and then doubles again. Any drops in value shortly after March will be fleeting.

  129. Or, if they get a nice premium it's cash on the barrel head and the operation can be repeated. Silver is not becoming more plentiful.

  130. This comment has been removed by the author.

  131. Delivery is a contingency that must be considered.

    For smaller, poorly capitalised, highly leveraged funds it may be a problem.

    For larger funds (eg Paulson $20bn or Eton Park $13bn) who are known to be bullish on precious metals, they may welcome the opportunity to buy physical. Having up to 2% of their assets in physical metals would not cause them a problem and they could hold / trade as they see fit.

  132. @Wayne,

    From reading what Wynter has written, I concluded that it was definitely the smaller funds involved. But I might be totally wrong.

  133. OK gents (and ladies?), it's been a fun mental exercise. I'm out. Have a beer for the Turd!

  134. Biosci, one of Wynter's original statements was that those who don't have a large number of contracts risk getting screwed. Those who do have a large number are in a better bargaining position when settlement day comes because they are entitled to delivery of a greater quantity of silver. It's like a poker game. When settlement day comes everyone has to show their cards and then put on their poker faces while they negotiate. Just because a few of the smaller players get screwed doesn't mean none of them will do the same thing in May. People get screwed all the time in markets and it doesn't prevent others from stepping in to take their place.

    I don't know whether funds actually want to take positions yet but we'll be able to judge that by the COT reports. According to Dan Norcini, as of the report just released Friday managed money positions are at their lowest since 5/5/09. As Gene Arensburg would say, there's lots of "bullish firepower" building up.

  135. RE: Busting COMEX by buying March contracts.

    I'm a noob, so I probably don't understand. But won't COMEX just dip into SLV to cover silver demands? And nobody knows how much SLV has.

  136. Interesting analysis of the COT:

  137. The first day delivery report for Gold and Silver is here

    Courtesy of Ed Steer, who states the following

    With February being a big delivery month for gold, the numbers are impressive, as 6,895 gold and 111 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday, February 1st.

    The big issuer in gold was the proprietary trading [house] account at Deutsche Bank...with 6,459 contracts delivered. The Bank of Nova Scotia was a very distant second at 432 contracts. There was an impressive list of stoppers [receivers]...with the biggest being HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia...and JPMorgan, in that order.

    The big issuer in silver was the Bank of Nova Scotia, with the biggest stopper being Triland USA.

    As a 'for instance' silver, the '8 or less' bullion banks were short 177 days of world silver production in the COT for positions held at the close of trading on September 28th. The latest COT report above [for positions held as of January 25, 2011...shows that the '8 or less' traders are down to only 130 days of world silver production held short. This is still a grotesque and obscene they are now only about four months of world silver production held short, instead of six months! I'm underwhelmed.

    Also this

    So, the bullion banks are covering shorts when they manufactured this January price decline...and then drive up the price when they cover shorts to the upside...and it's right on the gold and silver charts for all to see. But you have to know what they're doing, how they're doing it...and where to look.

    This isn't rocket science.

  138. We'll all have our wait time silver shortage stories to share!! Order put in after Xmas and still waiting for when it took previous 7-10 days out. Been doing monthly purchases regularly since Jan '08-May 2010 on 100oz of silver eagles!! Thought I better start picking up some for family/friends recently so put in an order end of year!! Bupkiss!! Certain it's not coast to roast yet and on mint boxes of 500 oz or more, but the small guys getting squeezed out of the markets now!! Drying up the take for the small guy to crash jpig morgue & buy silver!! 15-20k purchases moving to the front of the line and soon bupkiss! Drying up like a drop of water on a white hot skillet!!

  139. P.S. Turd you're doing a great service to, "we the people," by getting the message out on silver!! Be it you're a paper shuffler in the markets or taking physical possession; it will balance for honest money in the future!! bankster fraudsters can't sit in silver bullion vaults forever thinkin they'll pick a corner and pinch a loaf of 1000oz deliverable crimex silver bricks!! Eventually it all breaks down as history is our witness! Fiat backed by thin air promises of lying bankster/politicians eventually get vaporized as paper bonds, contracts, promissory notes, and paper bills marked money to the enth degree burn to ashes!! Yup! It's the little guy in the end which get's left as the bag holder of irredeemable paper and needs bow the knee to gov goons for survival! Nonetheless your blog educates people to prepare for future economic breakdowns world wide; the U.S. very much not exempt as sign posts keep flashing danger! King dollar may be neutered in the confidence game, suddenly overnight if ones not up on historical breakdowns of paper monies backed by nothing but thin air!! Yep! Great B-day for you and your support of gold/silver!!

  140. On the one hand I find myself clicking back here more than I should for a Saturday, waiting for Turd's week in review.

    On the other hand, I sort-of like the idea of Turd nursing a brutal hangover after a B-day blowout, unable to post (for once). Hope it was a good one, TF!

  141. A comment by Trader Dan on the KWN weekly wrap has me thinking that the recent silver physical buyers might be a few governments, realizing the inevitability of debt default and a new currency.

    If so, shortages will go broaden and deepen.

  142. I'm starting to believe that more than the COT reports, more than the potential funds buying up contracts and demanding delivery in march, more than the physical shortages, more than the engineered (accidentally?) selling in the gold market, more than any technical charts, what really matters going forward is the stuff going on in the Middle East. If these events keep heating up then they are going to way overshadow any of the other factors we've been examining. Pay attention to Saudi Arabia and the price of oil. If oil kicks into high gear then we need not worry about anything else. I'm watching events closely over the weekend and into next week.

  143. This whole January Gold sell off & Mid East Crisis looks all to choreograph to me. If this Mid East crap does spread to other Mid East States Oil could double very quickly & Gold should spike Big time. What interesting times we live in.

  144. Don't assume that those standing for delivery come Feb will be paid off with 25% premiums or whatever. Just because someone says that and others believe him doesn't make it true. It's illegal and unnecesary. Why would JPM or the EE wait until someone stands for delivery and then pay 25% more when they could buy the contracts back on the open market for less than that?-even if it would bid up the price.
    Secondly they aren't called the EE for nothing. Anyone with the wherewithall to take delivery on millions of ounces of silver is part of the system and relies and the favors of govt. and other members of the EE for their place amongst the elite. There are many ways the EE can coerce them out of their silver (as they did WB)From witholding opportunites, govt. contracts, lines of credit for their cos. etc. and if that doesn't work they can sic the IRS or HS on them.
    Before crimex defaults they will change the rules like they did to the Hunts-no more margin, sell orders only and finally cash settlement at the last price.
    Rumors of comex defaults show up every year and they never play out. This will be the same- the price may rise to entice longs to sell and/or silver will be found/taken from slv to satisfy those standing.
    Doesn't mean silver won't keep rising-I think it will but be careful what you wish for as a collapse of the comex will signify bigger problems. Maybe we should be happy with steadily rising PM prices and not hope so much for a collapse-it won't be as much fun as one may think.
    JMHO-lot's of good comments on this board.

  145. MUST READ

  146. Just added an overview of the commodities