Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Late Monday Update

First of all, a big thanks to everyone as we had our biggest day yet. Almost 19,000 pageviews!! An utterly amazing number. Seriously, I'm speechless. Thank you. I'm glad you're all enjoying this forum.
Second, I apologize for the infrequency of posts today. We are opening another business this week and it is taking a lot of time. This entire week will be busy but I'll try to post as often as possible.

After the disgusting shenanigans in the silver market this afternoon, price has rebounded about 30 cents or so from the lows. As you know by now, I like to study charts at night to look for clues that might foreshadow the next move. I found two things for you to consider. First, let's re-visit our old friend, the USDX. Recall last week how the "umbrella" formation we found accurately predicted a rather significant drop all the way to 79 on the Mar11 contract. We expected a bounce from there and then some consolidation and, well, whaddayaknow, we got just that. Now, the question is, what's next? Take a look at the updated chart:
Rarely will you see a more perfect umbrella. I had a hunch we'd rally back to 79.80 or so and we made it to 79.73 very early this morning. That's close enough and if we keep failing now and trending lower, the 79.02 low of last Friday will give way and from there we'll head to 78.50 in short order. From there its down to 78 and even 77. Well, you can imagine that this might be rather constructive to PM prices so watch the 79 level very closely.

Next up, take look at a 5-minute Mar11 silver chart:
The afterhours whackjob is plain to see but note the action since. Silver seems to be struggling with the 30.80-85 level for some reason. Let's watch this overnight because, if it begins to roll over, we'll most certainly see 30.60 again and maybe 30.50. Blythe could then whip up the monkeys for another 8:25 beatdown and we could end up making a run back down to 30.20-40 by 8:35.
On the other hand, if the BoS can bust us back through 30.85, we'll be back above 31 before I hit REM.

Oh, and remember, tomorrow is Tuesday so we stand a high percentage likelihood that we'll have an UP day before the COT survey. If you're wondering why that's important, read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

That's it for now...I gotta hit the rack. Thanks again for reading! TF out.
Posted by at

33 comments:

  1. Scottj88January 4, 2011 at 1:19 AM

    Truly Fantastic.

    Also, the Canadian Markets are opening back up again, so it should bring some new volume? I know at least the miners should be doing good with new money to be invested... this should apply to silver and gold as well I would imagine.

    As soon as the manipulation fails to work, this bull is going to get to a point of no return. Right now the bull is staring down Blythe Masters... learning from every missed charge. Soon enough the "red button" that keeps this bull in check will no longer fool the angry beast.
    -
    You have fantastic chart analysis, I have most of more informed friends reading your blog. Keep the good work up, your 19,000 views is by no chance.

    I am also talking about these topics and much more about political actions that need to happen in order to hopefully restore our republic (after the inevitable crash).
    -
    http://thehardrightedge.com
    --

    It is a great tool in revolution to have bloggers such as yourself, Turd. Your insight undoubtedly one day may shift markets :)
    -
    Scott J

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  2. JackJanuary 4, 2011 at 1:21 AM

    A big dollar drop on a Tuesday would be like steroids to PM's.

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  3. cbottlebobJanuary 4, 2011 at 3:21 AM

    EE busy at work,bit like King Canute on the beach,busy flooding the market with paper.Time to get physical.Buy those dips.

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  4. UnknownJanuary 4, 2011 at 3:30 AM

    FRES LN +6% at the open! could it be on the back of this article:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worlds-richest-man-carlos-slim-entering-silver-fray

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  5. UnknownJanuary 4, 2011 at 5:40 AM

    New episode on silver suppression:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF#p/c/29AA60A5C1C9E96A

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  6. AnonymousJanuary 4, 2011 at 5:42 AM

    China and Korea have been buying EUR today and the EUR/USD rate is up as a result.

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  7. sumoJanuary 4, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    I will BTFD if Silver touches $30

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  8. AnonymousJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:01 AM

    Turd...question. And I realize this is going to be so fundamental and perhaps laughable.

    I'm in on PMs and have been getting into this weird little world. Love it! (first of all).

    Now...I know "raided by Blythe" is bad, and I talk about it with the clowns here at work, but I don't know what it means. What does she and her team actually do to affect the markets so violently???

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  9. JackJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    Pull the bids that's what.

    OOps attack at 8:20 just started. 30.73 dropped to 30.56 in one minute.

    ReplyDelete
  10. UK turdwatcherJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:26 AM

    Been following this great blog for a while,
    maybe a FAQ page would help ?

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  11. BJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:30 AM

    Right on time again! On Jan 4, Bear raid on silver ~8:25am EST! TF, you've nailed this so many days in a row!!!!

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  12. DanielJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:38 AM

    This is so stupid, I can't believe it^^
    I am really in doubt whether I should start trying to make money on this. It's just too stupid, and I this amount of stupidity is simply unbearable for one person.

    I once lost in Poker against my (then new) girlfriend who worked hard on a really innocent and stupid table image just to rip me off 2h later when I was convinced it was her first time plying poker. Is Blythe like my girlfriend?

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  13. JackJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:38 AM

    Low of 30.38...the FUBM counter-attack has begin. 30.47 right now.

    Might be a reversal day, starting red ending a strong green. I just have my spidey senses tingling.

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  14. themagicbusguyJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:42 AM

    Reminds me of a scene in the movie Patton
    "Romel, you magnificent bastard, I READ YOUR BOOK!"

    Patton, as played by TF

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  15. JackJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:46 AM

    Bashed down to 30.14 - in an instant - Sickening to watch, but no reason that I can see for it.

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  16. MarvinJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    can anybody tell me what timezone that blog is ??

    Makes it easier to follow

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  17. Fiend's Brave VictimJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:52 AM

    Hi all,

    Righteo, I've set myself up a (CFD-based) Options account. Would anyone be kind enough to run through a quick equation with me to show me how to work out potential yields? I mean a very simple equation. Let's say one contract of a 3060 March call, the buy price was 5, costing me $250. If I called it at 3100, what would I come out with in dollars?

    I'm very sorry to ask such a cheeky question, but I'm finding it difficult to find these answers!

    All help appreciated! Best regards.

    PS. Mr. Hendrix! Looks like we're getting our wish to see 1390-1395 tested today. Good call.

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  18. AnonymousJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:52 AM

    This ain't fair! I can't buy any at this price! It's going to go up before I can get some!

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:53 AM

    @Marvin - based on his comments, Turd has implied he is on the East coast, but the time stamp on the blog seems to be Pacific time.

    ReplyDelete
  20. MarvinJanuary 4, 2011 at 8:59 AM

    It is quite confusing with the timestamps ... i pressume the blog on the top is the latest one ?

    ReplyDelete
  21. AnonymousJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:08 AM

    The most recent main post from Turd on the blog's page (tfmetals.blogspot.com) is always at the top. The comments are in chronological order, with oldest at the top, most recent on the bottom (as you can see).

    ReplyDelete
  22. Fiend's Brave VictimJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:09 AM

    Ah okay, maybe I've figured this out. Am I right in thinking a silver option is a 5000oz contract?

    So if bought a single 3060 march call for $250, am I correct in thinking that if I closed it at 3100 my profit would be:

    3100-3060 = 40

    40x50 = 2000

    2000-250 (original price) = $1750

    Is this right?! Any help appreciated! Our favourite Blythe just made these things REALLY cheap and a want to get on board! I'll repay you in martinis...

    ReplyDelete
  23. MarvinJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:21 AM

    @CD

    Thanks

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  24. MarvinJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:23 AM

    @Fiend's Brave Victim

    Thats absolutely correct.

    But some Brokers offers smaller contracts as well

    ReplyDelete
  25. Qussl3January 4, 2011 at 9:28 AM

    @Fiend's Brave Victim

    I dont play the options or futures myself but please note that CFDs usually involve a loan, so you'd need to factor the cost of carry too.

    Also the option isnt an option for silver rather its an option to purchase a specific futures contract, hence you need to take note of each contracts expiry.

    More details can be found here

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver_contract_specifications.html

    Also, its more important to focus on your risk of loss rather than get caught up in potential imagined gains :)

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  26. silvergoldsilverJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:45 AM

    Gold/silver is getting DECIMATED. Copper up. Fuck you Blyth, FUCK YOU.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Fiend's Brave VictimJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:50 AM

    Thanks for the responses everyone. And yes, the reason I'm interested in options is because at least I know that my losses are going to be fixed. I have since learned that these cheap silver options are just dailies, so not quite as attractive as I'd first thought. Damn! Still, the longer term gold ones look fairly attractive.

    Thanks again, Adam

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  28. CO_DanJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:53 AM

    Gotta get that London PM Fix under $30. Blythe is spooked.

    ReplyDelete
  29. sumoJanuary 4, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    I'm betting that the BoS hits the offer at $30. Bang Dae-Ho.

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  30. ChrisJanuary 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM

    This is getting so rediculous it's almost not even fun to trade anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  31. DukeJanuary 4, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    Appears Blythe had a good "talking to" last night. Thank goodness I didn't chase AGQ last week, but it is getting interesting here.jd.

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  32. Bill.Sarah.ConnorJanuary 4, 2011 at 12:37 PM

    Chris - it would have been more fun if I'd sold my Jr. miners yesterday so I could buy them back today at a 10-15% discount. I'll learn eventually!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Animal SacrificeJanuary 4, 2011 at 4:08 PM

    Blythe helped me greatly by letting me switch shares of TRE and GDXJ out of my IRA into my Roth. The thing is that i truly love being draped in precious metals so if they go Blyth's barf way, I'll just close the account and but jewelry.

    ReplyDelete

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