Well, I didn't quite get the move out of HSBC yesterday that I had forecast. I thought that with America closed, the LBMA would crack silver down through 28 before a bottom was reached and a rally today. Instead, I have another low above 28 yesterday at 28.05 after a low Friday of 28.10. As you can see, the 28 level has become our bullish "Maginot":
Remember, this is Tuesday and everybody wins on Tuesday! Seriously, regular readers will recall that Tuesdays are almost always UP days as the EE is reluctant to add to short positions immediately before the weekly COT survey. Lets see what happens tomorrow. For traders, if we can get one more test tomorrow of 28 and if you see it bounce again and roll back UP through 28.25 or so, you should be able to buy with confidence.
Another reason I'm not overly enthusiastic yet is the trading in copper and crude. Though gold and silver are up nicely this morning, copper and crude are still mostly stuck. This tells me that the bounce in the PMs is mainly due to a lack of selling, not necessarily aggressive buying. So, in the end, if we've seen a bottom, you're looking for two things:
1) A convincing move today, up through 29 in March silver and 1378-80 in Feb gold. So far, so good. I have a last of 1375 and 28.91.
2) Failure at those levels today with Blythe painting another FUTF on the chart. Renewed selling later today and tonight. A bounce again somewhere between 28 and 28.20 tomorrow. Then, a confirmation in March copper with a solid move through 444, up near 447-48 and strength in crude with it once again pushing 92.
If we can get either of these scenarios (and I clearly prefer #2), you can feel a high degree of confidence in buying, whether its physical, the miners, AGQ or futures.
More later in what should be an interesting day.