Your One-Trick Turd

I, like you, have been fiddling around on the internet for years now. When I first started, I'd get into internet "arguments" with people all the time. It was fun to anonymously poke and provoke people. I'd also allow myself to get ticked off when I was poked or provoked back. Maybe, from an internet standpoint, I've just kind of "grown up" over the years as I rarely find myself getting frustrated anymore.

Today, I must admit that I've found myself to be a little annoyed. A former Turdite, who shall remain nameless, has chosen to blast away at me on his own blog. That's all well and good and its not the blasting that bothers me...it comes with the territory. I guess what bugs me are two things:

1) That this fellow would spam up the comments section here as he looks for readers for his own site but then turn around and ridicule me as a "one trick pony" who "is only bullish" and "could lose people a lot of money". Like I'm some newsletter writer charging everyone for this. You know that I could give a shit if this ended tomorrow. In fact, I've promised to quit and go away if by $1600 by 6/10/11 is proven inaccurate. To be lumped-in with the Prechters of the world pisses me off.
2) I've never been anything but up-front with everybody here. Of course I'm a one trick pony! Read the frickin title and subtitle of the blog, for crying out loud! I'm always going to be long-term bullish. I'm always going to be intermediate term bullish and almost always going to be short-term bullish. As for caution, as recently as 10 days ago, I was urging it and pointing out how I hadn't "waded back into the water yet". I only cautiously starting buying calls again early last week. This blog is about the end of the current, keynesian-based monetary system and how you can best prepare for coming events and avoid being skinned like the rest of the sheeple. I believe there is no way out. I believe that QE is going to infinity. Therefore, gold and silver will never be in long or intermediate term declines. Period. If you think I'm wrong about these things or expect something else from me like 100% accurate market timing, I suggest you take me off of your favorites list.

OK, sorry for the rant but I had to get that off my chest. Here are your charts of interest for today. First up, here's an updated, 1-hour March USDX. You can see the fight at 78 or so. Watch this closely overnight:

Now, check out these two charts. They both are 12-hour scale, which is very important as that timeframe takes us right back to 11/3, the date of the QE2 announcement by The Ben Bernank. First up, gold. Notice the complete round trip. Some might even see a H&S top. I don't know about that. I see a range bound trade bordered by 1330 and 1430. At this point, I still think there's a pretty decent chance we'll see a trade down to 1330-35 early this week but that ought to be it. However, keep in mind and don't forget that I'm dead wrong if gold trades down through 1320.

Now, here's a 12-hour March silver. If I'm right about one more quick push down in gold, then we'll also get one more push in silver, probably to 26.50-65.

For additional perspective in silver, take a look at this 15-minute chart. Someone or something has apparently decided to draw a proverbial "line in the sand" at about 27.15 as you can clearly see at least 9 attempts to breach that level over the past 24 trading hours. This is very, very interesting. Could it be our friend(s), the Buyer(s) of Size? No one can say for sure but 27.10-15 bears close watching as a slip down through there will almost certainly lead to my 26.50-65 level.

One last thing, though it can be fund to watch the minute-by-minute machinations of the PM "markets", please don't get all caught up in the wailing and grinding of teeth with every down tick. I've given you some levels to watch. I've told you that we may still see a little more downside this week...gold to 1330, silver to 26.50, HUI to 480...but that should be it. If you're going to trade, pick some prices that would roughly correspond to those levels, put in some limit orders and then kick back, relax and wait to see if you get filled. Living tick-by-tick is a sure way to drive yourself bats.

Keep the faith. This BS, algo-driven correction is almost over. TF

OK...in the hour or so it took me to type all that, the EE has once again raided during the afterhours session. Fuckers. I think you all know how I feel about the unfairness of the Globex pm raids but what can you do. 
I have a gold last of 1336 and silver and 26.92. Looks like we're going to get a chance to see if my bottom picks are going to be accurate.


I guess its always going to be fashionable to call tops, particularly in gold where the volatility is so often to the downside but at least somebody seems to agree with me...finally. Please read this very important and timely info from Santa:
http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/24/jims-mailbox-629/


6:45pm EST UPDATE:
In a frustrating continuation of last week's pattern, Feb gold opened higher on the Comex this morning, only to be sold into all day. In a new development, the EE decided that too many dip buyers were emerging during the pit session so they decided to continue their ruthless attack after everyone went home. If you're new here and wondering how I feel about these BS attacks, read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/thieves-and-criminals.html
And this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html
Now look at this 5-minute chart of Feb gold:

What to make of these attacks? Not much. Its primarily just blatant manipulation by the Evil Empire. What I can tell you is that on Dec 7, the date of my first rant, the afterhours EE attack came at the bottom of a short correction. Silver bottomed he next day and then rallied over the next three weeks from 28 to 31. The next criminal attack occurred on Monday, January 3 and, ultimately, was the beginning of this very painful, current correction. Did Blythe just bottom-tick another correction just like she did on December 7? We'll see...
Lastly, those of us who follow things closely via ZH should find this very encouraging:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-goes-gaga-over-cyclical-commodities-says-gold-run-ending-qe2-comes-close-full-commod


9:15pm EST UPDATE:
As usual, lots of good info from a very agitated Harvey tonight. I leave you with this from Harvey, as the USDX closes in on new lows but gold is off almost $11 from its Death Star close...:

"Ladies and gentlemen:

I am afraid that the end game is being played out and thus expect huge volatility on the comex and also be cognizant of the fact that paper gold and silver will deviate from the real price.

I urge all of you not to leverage.  Take physical position of your metals and do not watch CNBC as they are nothing but a mouthpiece for our bankers.

see you tomorrow

Harvey"


11:45pm EST UPDATE:
Well, so far, the week has played out as we'd kind of expected. Perhaps not in process but certainly in price. Feb gold reached a low earlier this evening of 1329.50. March silver traded all the way down to our range and hit 26.63. The time is now. We will find out shortly if I am to be proven correct in this search for a bottom. Here's what to look for next:
Gold has rebounded this evening to 1334 and silver is back to 26.89. They will, most likely continue to rally overnight as the March USDX clings to the area around 78. At the Comex open and LBMA pm fix, the metals re-test the lows of this evening and hold. Perhaps the catalyst for the initial rebound will be the USDX breaking down. Perhaps it will be copper and crude rallying. No matter, the key will be the double bottom. Similarly, we got a double bottom at 25 in silver back in mid November at the exact same percentage drop from the recent high. See here for a recap:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/silver-update.html
So, anyway, the moment of truth has arrived. I can't wait for tomorrow.