Monday, January 24, 2011

Your One-Trick Turd

I, like you, have been fiddling around on the internet for years now. When I first started, I'd get into internet "arguments" with people all the time. It was fun to anonymously poke and provoke people. I'd also allow myself to get ticked off when I was poked or provoked back. Maybe, from an internet standpoint, I've just kind of "grown up" over the years as I rarely find myself getting frustrated anymore.

Today, I must admit that I've found myself to be a little annoyed. A former Turdite, who shall remain nameless, has chosen to blast away at me on his own blog. That's all well and good and its not the blasting that bothers me...it comes with the territory. I guess what bugs me are two things:

1) That this fellow would spam up the comments section here as he looks for readers for his own site but then turn around and ridicule me as a "one trick pony" who "is only bullish" and "could lose people a lot of money". Like I'm some newsletter writer charging everyone for this. You know that I could give a shit if this ended tomorrow. In fact, I've promised to quit and go away if by $1600 by 6/10/11 is proven inaccurate. To be lumped-in with the Prechters of the world pisses me off.
2) I've never been anything but up-front with everybody here. Of course I'm a one trick pony! Read the frickin title and subtitle of the blog, for crying out loud! I'm always going to be long-term bullish. I'm always going to be intermediate term bullish and almost always going to be short-term bullish. As for caution, as recently as 10 days ago, I was urging it and pointing out how I hadn't "waded back into the water yet". I only cautiously starting buying calls again early last week. This blog is about the end of the current, keynesian-based monetary system and how you can best prepare for coming events and avoid being skinned like the rest of the sheeple. I believe there is no way out. I believe that QE is going to infinity. Therefore, gold and silver will never be in long or intermediate term declines. Period. If you think I'm wrong about these things or expect something else from me like 100% accurate market timing, I suggest you take me off of your favorites list.

OK, sorry for the rant but I had to get that off my chest. Here are your charts of interest for today. First up, here's an updated, 1-hour March USDX. You can see the fight at 78 or so. Watch this closely overnight:
Now, check out these two charts. They both are 12-hour scale, which is very important as that timeframe takes us right back to 11/3, the date of the QE2 announcement by The Ben Bernank. First up, gold. Notice the complete round trip. Some might even see a H&S top. I don't know about that. I see a range bound trade bordered by 1330 and 1430. At this point, I still think there's a pretty decent chance we'll see a trade down to 1330-35 early this week but that ought to be it. However, keep in mind and don't forget that I'm dead wrong if gold trades down through 1320.
Now, here's a 12-hour March silver. If I'm right about one more quick push down in gold, then we'll also get one more push in silver, probably to 26.50-65.
For additional perspective in silver, take a look at this 15-minute chart. Someone or something has apparently decided to draw a proverbial "line in the sand" at about 27.15 as you can clearly see at least 9 attempts to breach that level over the past 24 trading hours. This is very, very interesting. Could it be our friend(s), the Buyer(s) of Size? No one can say for sure but 27.10-15 bears close watching as a slip down through there will almost certainly lead to my 26.50-65 level.

One last thing, though it can be fund to watch the minute-by-minute machinations of the PM "markets", please don't get all caught up in the wailing and grinding of teeth with every down tick. I've given you some levels to watch. I've told you that we may still see a little more downside this week...gold to 1330, silver to 26.50, HUI to 480...but that should be it. If you're going to trade, pick some prices that would roughly correspond to those levels, put in some limit orders and then kick back, relax and wait to see if you get filled. Living tick-by-tick is a sure way to drive yourself bats.

Keep the faith. This BS, algo-driven correction is almost over. TF

OK...in the hour or so it took me to type all that, the EE has once again raided during the afterhours session. Fuckers. I think you all know how I feel about the unfairness of the Globex pm raids but what can you do. 
I have a gold last of 1336 and silver and 26.92. Looks like we're going to get a chance to see if my bottom picks are going to be accurate.


I guess its always going to be fashionable to call tops, particularly in gold where the volatility is so often to the downside but at least somebody seems to agree with me...finally. Please read this very important and timely info from Santa:
http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/24/jims-mailbox-629/


6:45pm EST UPDATE:
In a frustrating continuation of last week's pattern, Feb gold opened higher on the Comex this morning, only to be sold into all day. In a new development, the EE decided that too many dip buyers were emerging during the pit session so they decided to continue their ruthless attack after everyone went home. If you're new here and wondering how I feel about these BS attacks, read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/thieves-and-criminals.html
And this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html
Now look at this 5-minute chart of Feb gold:
What to make of these attacks? Not much. Its primarily just blatant manipulation by the Evil Empire. What I can tell you is that on Dec 7, the date of my first rant, the afterhours EE attack came at the bottom of a short correction. Silver bottomed he next day and then rallied over the next three weeks from 28 to 31. The next criminal attack occurred on Monday, January 3 and, ultimately, was the beginning of this very painful, current correction. Did Blythe just bottom-tick another correction just like she did on December 7? We'll see...
Lastly, those of us who follow things closely via ZH should find this very encouraging:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-goes-gaga-over-cyclical-commodities-says-gold-run-ending-qe2-comes-close-full-commod


9:15pm EST UPDATE:
As usual, lots of good info from a very agitated Harvey tonight. I leave you with this from Harvey, as the USDX closes in on new lows but gold is off almost $11 from its Death Star close...:

"Ladies and gentlemen:

I am afraid that the end game is being played out and thus expect huge volatility on the comex and also be cognizant of the fact that paper gold and silver will deviate from the real price.
I urge all of you not to leverage.  Take physical position of your metals and do not watch CNBC as they are nothing but a mouthpiece for our bankers.

see you tomorrow
Harvey"


11:45pm EST UPDATE:
Well, so far, the week has played out as we'd kind of expected. Perhaps not in process but certainly in price. Feb gold reached a low earlier this evening of 1329.50. March silver traded all the way down to our range and hit 26.63. The time is now. We will find out shortly if I am to be proven correct in this search for a bottom. Here's what to look for next:
Gold has rebounded this evening to 1334 and silver is back to 26.89. They will, most likely continue to rally overnight as the March USDX clings to the area around 78. At the Comex open and LBMA pm fix, the metals re-test the lows of this evening and hold. Perhaps the catalyst for the initial rebound will be the USDX breaking down. Perhaps it will be copper and crude rallying. No matter, the key will be the double bottom. Similarly, we got a double bottom at 25 in silver back in mid November at the exact same percentage drop from the recent high. See here for a recap:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/silver-update.html
So, anyway, the moment of truth has arrived. I can't wait for tomorrow.











118 comments:

  1. we still love you turd.....hehehehe.....and yup it looks like they are goin for the blue light special on the PMs.....

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  2. Turd,

    I have been on the internet for the past 7 years and have been through it all as well. I was banned from poker websites (chat) for months on end for flaming people making the "incorrect moves."

    Little did I know how much I was really just flaming myself...

    The point of the story is, imitation is the greatest form of a compliment, and you have a lot of imitators thinking they know what is going on. I feel this quote should ease your pain a little bit.

    “First they ignore you,
    then they laugh at you,
    then they fight you,
    then you win.”
    -Ghandi

    Ignore the trolls, you are not going to please everyone. Not only that, you should know by now that there are indeed paid trolls to come and dis-info websites of credibility and create a flame war to discredit the material. Do not get lost in nonsense by your commentators (your problem is you care too much, I understand as this is my problem too).

    I am looking at the USDx only, as it will be the indicator of when things are going to get wild. And looking at the past 5 days in the USDx signal to me that the EE are getting desperate. This is all going to blow up in their faces and you will be vindicated. Don't sweat it, you know it otherwise you wouldn't be doing this blog.

    You have helped out countless amount of people,

    I am trying to do the same :)

    http://thehardrightedge.com

    -
    Keep up the good work,

    Scott J

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  3. I like to golf, some would say I'm a fairly decent golfer. Am I going to play golf with Tiger Woods straight up? Fuck no, he'll kill me. To me, trading PM's is similar to this analogy. Let the professionals trade and play their little paper games. If you hold quality miners and physical Ag & Au sit back and chill. Our time is coming.

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  4. Let's step back and let them drive this to whatever level they want, then we buy.

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  5. silver 26.85......yoooooowwwwza....they're goin for the throat......come ta papa

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  6. Price correction for sure. That "internet rumor" about China is true Turd. Like you said when you were wanting to buy, you WANTED to buy. This correction won't last forever.

    I actually liked you better when you were Gordon Gekko. Ignore the trolls - the internet is a big world and there is room for everyone.

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  7. One more things; I am beginning to believe that this entire exercise is one big exit strategy for the shorts. They have tasted the global demand for the metal and are in the midst of constructing a dignified exit.

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  8. with ya dd on that one....the turn should be very clear when they start covering

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  9. Gainesville now out of the 100 oz bars. Looks like the next buy will be in a green box! I hope I have the opportunity to buy at $25. jd

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  10. When you buy physical at your local coin shop and want to complain about the premium charged, remember that you are dealing with a businessman who is selling to you from his inventory. If he bought it at a higher price he can't stay in business if he sells to you at a lower price. That's why sell prices may be slow to adjust when the paper price drops until his average acquisition price drops. I'm not a dealer but I understand the problem they face.

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  11. Scott: Thank you for the kind words and advice.
    Stuey: Maybe the silvergoldsilver guys will be right and we go to $20 silver before going to 40+. Either way, we're still going to $40+.

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  12. Hell yea Turd...You're the man I turn to for a large chunk of my PM info. You make it readable and understandable. Thanks for what you do!

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  13. TF, don't mind the blogger you mentioned. As I have mentioned to him, I think he fundamentally misunderstands the approach of most on this site. He writes, usually, from a leveraged trader's perspective. You both agree longterm, so take it as a compliment that your young blog gets press in others.


    Keep up the good work.

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  14. just picked up PSLV at 11.85......holy chit

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  15. Still in your corner TF. Traded 7000 green tickets for a bag of $100 face junk Ag and 3.5 oz of Au this morning. If we're wrong, than at least I was in good company for the ride. F the troll in the A.

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  16. Thanks for the blog turd. I hope you stay with it even if your prediction is not on target. Your commentary is always worth reading. We know the risks of investing and don't expect anyone to call it right every time.

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  17. Read this soon:
    http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/24/jims-mailbox-629/

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  18. Yeah Turd. Glad you finally addressed Hammy's bs on your blog.

    Kinda cowardly.

    And he is fundamentally flawed in relying so much on technical analysis given a manipulated market.

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  19. Thanks, Cris. Any new comments he posts here will be deleted.
    I can do that.
    Its my blog. :)

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  20. WTF PSLV?! I swear, I unload these, the market for silver will reverse the next day. F**KNG F*** F*** cucumbers

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  21. This maybe a prelude to taking down Tuesday as we have state of union, COT cut-off date and FOMC meeting coming in the next two days. EE definitely has motives to drive it down.

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  22. Don't sweat it Turd. We PM stackers are macro people in a micro world. 24-hour news cycles, HFTrading, Twitts and Twats the lot.

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  23. "They" want you out of PSLV....it actually is a big buyer of physical..."they" want you in SLV....my advice FWIW....anyone holding SLV should dump and buy PSLV...in the longer run you will not be sorry....JMO bases on 30 years of trading. I've watched these rodeos a long time

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  24. Turd;
    Thanks for you input....keep it up..
    Here is a bit of info. I found....
    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-silver-market-update.aspx?article=3313223318G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Clive+Maund
    http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-gold-market-update.aspx?article=3313213530G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Clive+Maund

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  25. As we would say over here Turd - "Don't let the buggers get you down."
    I follow your blog because I feel you're an honest man, most of your postings are way above my simple understanding, but they're truthful which is all that matters to me.

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  26. El Turdo, I thought your paragraph 2 was especially awesome. I did a print screen and left it on my desktop. My thoughts exactly.

    I too believe there is no way out. But we have to try. That's why we're here.

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  27. TF and others, take a step back and look at a longer term chart. Say 2y or 5y silver. And consider this alternative hypothesis: the late 2010 huge run-up is largely the work of speculators betting on the "QE=massive dollar devaluation" idea. But it hasn't worked out that way, at least not to the extent predicted by the move from 18 to 30.

    Point 2: money isn't being injected into the system as fast as credit is being destroyed. The purported Vallejo bankruptcy terms and the possibility of the Irish forcing bondholders to take a haircut -- not to mention the Germans talking about a haircut policy on forward bailouts -- is macro deflationary, as that market starts looks a lot less interesting to bond buyers.

    Point 3: Euro instability, which is inevitable this year, means relative dollar strength. Bad for PM in dollar terms.

    Conclusion: silver to low 20s before it resumes its ascent, at the 2009 to mid2010 rate or possibly the 2006 to mid2010 rate.

    I look forward to your comments.

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  28. Biosci: you could be right. Who am I to say that you're not?

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  29. Biosci--
    Yeah, it could happen. But your Point 2 reads to me like an argument for why QE will never ever stop. And sooner or later, silver "resumes its ascent".

    So, I don't think there is really a big fundamental disagreement here, just difference of opinion on the degree of correction.

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  30. by the way, I love the verification words this thing comes up with. It's like they are almost real words, but aren't. You could almost slip most of them past somebody in a scrabble game.

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  31. This moves to where the BOS and EE have determined.....do not be surprised that the "fix" is in between the parties involved....after all......it benefits both to see some air out of this trade.....

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  32. Eric - yes, I totally agree. I can't see any reason that QE would stop, unless there is a complete policy reversal and the banks are forced to mark to market, most of them are nationalized, the bad debts written off. But who's got the will to do that?

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  33. Biosci--
    I really appreciate your reference to a 5 year chart. I figured out a long time ago that you are never going to be faster than the pros. If I'm using a 200 day MA, other guys are using a 50. If I'm using a 50, other guys are using a 10. If I'm using a 10 day, they are using 10 minute. The HFTs are now trading in nanoseconds. A mere mortal like me can't win that game. The only way now to get a fresh look is to step back and look at the long term chart and see what's really going on. The HFT algorithms have never seen a 5 year chart.

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  34. Bio:

    You assume the move from 18 to 30 was entirely predicated on dramatic devaluation of the dollar but that's not the case. That may have been fuel but there was lots of short covering going on during that time period and there are still a lot of shorts to be unwound.

    I would say rising fuel and food prices in the U.S. confirm that there has been dramatic devaluation of the dollar. It hasn't entirely hit prices yet, but if/when it does then I would expect gold and silver to take on more of a safe haven status.

    The strong dollar/weak metals scenario doesn't always play out. Right now we have a weak dollar and weak metals, which some have suggested is a result of unwinding the short euro/long gold trade. The headlines go back and forth weekly between "the dollar is toast" and the "euro is toast." That's probably how it will be until they both collapse, but as we saw in 2010 a panic out of the Euro can cause periods of a surging dollar along with surging metals prices.

    Further, we can expect more inflation as China continues tightening and looking toward transacting in currencies other than the dollar. The Yuan adjustments although currently small will result in dollar inflation coming home to roost.

    Domestically, the politicians are already out saying there won't be a bailout for the states, which means there will be a bailout for the states. Plus the debt ceiling will be increased despite what they say.

    Lastly, M2 is surging:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/m2-update-1

    I don't see the PM ratchet cranking at a lower rate as seen in years past. Events are picking up speed rather than calming down, culminating in who knows what. The pace of events doesn't indicate a slow down in the rate of demand for things such as gold, silver, and commodities but rather an increase in the pace.

    Fundamentally there is a shortage of commercial-sized investment silver bars, and lately even retail supplies of 100oz bars seem to be tightening a bit. Demand is increasing dramatically out of China, India, and elsewhere. Investment demand in the U.S. is picking up with January having the highest silver eagle sales on record at 4.7M so far. People are finally starting to whisper the word "silver" in tandem with "gold."

    Of course, it's entirely possible silver will go lower than is expected in the very near future, but in order to believe that the markets have cooled in the intermediate-long term one has to believe that governments are going to stop being governments and start being good managers of other people's money and wealth. Nobody can say that won't happen, but it doesn't look likely.

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  35. Turd,
    keep up the great work mate. Don't let the bastards get you down, as we say in my country.

    To anyone who doubts where Turd is coming from, please review his "Terms and Conditions"
    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/terms-and-conditions.html

    Turd has never wavered from those terms and conditions.

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  36. Eric,
    Yeah, it's seductively easy to connect the dots on the dips in the 2y gold or silver chart...it's a nice reminder that we could still see plenty of short term pain and still stay in a very solid long-term uptrend.

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  37. Flaunt -
    Thanks for a well-reasoned counterargument.

    I'm secretly -- ok, not so secretly -- praying for a big short term drop in silver, so I can max out my brand new no-interest Chase credit card at apmex.

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  38. Bio: No problem. Care to make a counter-counter argument? :)

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  39. I always found Hammy's avatar kinda creepy....reminds me of Chester the Molester from my old Hustler mags.

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  40. Gwen Joins the CFTC

    http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8288302/

    On her first day at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Gwen, ambitious but ignorant about finance, gets briefed on her first task. As she listens to her boss, she feels a growing sense of excitement. Has she somehow landed the job of her childhood dreams?

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  41. Turd, you were Gordon Gekko? I remember reading your posts on Zero Hedge (back when Zero Hedge wasn't filled with backbiting trolls), and was always impressed with your thoughts. I even bookmarked your blog for a while, but it wasn't being updated that frequently.

    Anyhoo, haters always gonna hate - who the hell cares what this gerbil fellow thinks? :) Keep up the great work!

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  42. Hey Turd: Even though most have never met you personally...I can unequivocally say that in your words alone you strike me as a man of great honor and respect not only for yourself but others as well...Fuck the rest...you're one of the best...the cream rises to the top...keep on keeping on brother.

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  43. Flaunt -

    Your points in order.

    *Rising food and fuel prices in the US.* Yes, we have inflation/dollar devaluation, at least by the metrics most rational people are forced to observe every day. But nothing close to that implied by an 18 to 30 move in silver.

    *The strong dollar/weak metals scenario doesn't always play out.* No, but if I'm betting my own money, I'd rather bet the rule and just hedge the exception. (I suppose that's technically what I'm doing, as I haven't yet quit my day job as a cog in the Great Keynesian Experiment.) I also believe the euro is on a much faster road to hell than the dollar. And the increase in M2 is pretty small.

    "Domestically, the politicians are already out saying there won't be a bailout for the states, which means there will be a bailout for the states." Well said!

    Fundamentally, I don't think we disagree. However, it's very important not to get caught up in the mania. A drop to 22 would only take us back down to the long-term trendline, and a rise from there to 31 by the end of the year would still represent a ~40% rise. Nothing to sneeze at, but I suspect the people reading this would be inconsolably depressed if that played out.

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  44. what Timpa said

    much more eloquently than I could)

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  45. I just added something very interesting to this note. Its probably just a coincidence but I feel it merits your consideration. Please check it out.

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  46. GG: Thanks for the backup.
    Tit: The Turd is not, and never has been, Gordon Gekko.
    Timpa and daraconn: Thanks to you, also.

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  47. See now, this is how Innernet rumors start. Sorry Turd, I was keying off an earlier comment from Stuey

    "I actually liked you better when you were Gordon Gekko. Ignore the trolls - the internet is a big world and there is room for everyone.
    January 24, 2011 12:27 PM"

    In any event, you're a good man. All of us appreciate you here.

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  48. Tit: I saw that, too, and meant to respond to it. Thanks for the reminder.

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  49. Turd, I think I know why they raided after close. The SLV selloff this past month means they don't have enough paper and physical silver available for SLV. They used the raid as a chance to restock SLV since nobody was really selling ... We'll probably see a silver ETF inflow in the coming few days.

    Just a guess...

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  50. Ok, I said I wouldn't, but I did just snag one more British Sovereign on fleaBay. Today's drop must have scared off some bidders.

    But that's it. No more. I swear.

    Now tomorrow my buddy at the coin shop will probably call (after weeks) and say he finally got something in that I might like. And I'll have to tell him sorry but I'm full up.

    But you know, since he took the effort to set it aside and call me, it would be rude not to at least go down and take a look... :)

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  51. TF, I saw that, and I thought it was a low blow. It also annoyed me--a lot. I wondered who died and made him God.

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  52. Fuck yeah Turd!! Man if you ever come down under I wanna buy you a beer

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  53. So you're a bit early into the metals, don't sweat it if you have proper size. Drawdowns are part of it.

    I just recently visited here for the first time, but will keep coming back. Great job and stay focused.

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  54. By the way, I found you over at Zero Hedge, one of my favorites!

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  55. I've been here since you started and you have given all of us a gift that we can use.
    You do it for free and you are better than the guys who charge. So tell him to STFU!


    Forget the losers who only criticizes and add nothing to the discussion.

    Mr T rocks and I thank him!

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  56. Firstly, I'll add my support to what others have said, you are performing a public service and you don't have to put up with bottom feeding pricks.

    Secondly, when you do the next video, can you give the monkey an asian accent? Because it looks like some of them live in Hong Kong...the prices are getting mashed in Asian trading....sigh.

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  57. I was out barbecuing yesterday in -18C weather. If you come up to Canada I'd invite you over for a "Frosty Barbecue" with beer that is too cold to open. :)

    Keep up the good work and we are all adults here so we win and loose on our own authority.

    Here's a relaxing winter day song to have a frozen beer to:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HohnS6hVcI

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  58. People, it's called FREE WILL. If you don't like what is written here than move along. If you find some value here like I do ... great, stay. All I can say is thank you Turd. I appreciate what you do and offer here. Cheers

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  59. I suspect she may manage take it down to 25.
    She wants 25 like hell.
    She looks desperate for 25.
    Lets see.

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  60. Maybe we are really in that caveat stage described in the Yahoo message.

    As for trolls, I dealt with them all the time in our community blog. They came out laughing at me every time there's a sell-off, and this one is no different. I just made sure I laughed them back when the the uptrend resumed, and this one will be no different, too!! :-)

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  61. Turd - love the blog and your analysis is great.

    However, no matter how much I barricade my double-wide, the flying monkeys keep busting into my trailer home, hold me down and pound me in the ass. I worry if this doesn't let up, I may... just turn gay.

    :-(

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  62. Rui, yes I was thinking about that caveat stage - that the hedge funds wouldn't pull the trigger unless silver got to $31. But the strategy would still work, I think, even if the starting point was the current price.
    Have you seen any updates on that Yahoo message thread?

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  63. QE has become nothing more than purchasing our own debt. No one else wnats it any more and if the Fed didn't buy it rates would be "unmanageable". If rates rose 1-2% our interest payment on the $Trillions would skyrocket. 3-4% and it's all over.....What do you think the banks did with their QE1 money ? Bought gov debt. If you understand the process you realize it is mathmatically impossible for them to NOT continue the charade. They might give it a new name but it's the same animal. That's why there's only one end to the story. If nothing else, gold will help cushion the fall.

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  64. Turd, Love the blog....have been following you for a while!! Want your thoughts on something please. Looking for your thoughts on LIBOR, GOFO and LIBOR/GOFO spread. Do you feel it indicates future movements in gold....if you are buying the dips?? LIBOR has generally been higher than GOFO so I would assume the positive LIBOR/GOFO spread indicates prevailing long interest and the negative LIBOR/GOFO indicates short interest. What are your thoughts?? Also where are you putting your personal dollars at this point (bulk of Silver)?? Keep it up Turd!! Brick Top

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  65. My post was in response to all the worrying over possibly discontinuing QE2. Lets see, we've had Stimulas 1,2 cash for everything clunkers, QE1, now 2.....I thought everything was coming up roses. At least, green shoots. All lies and 90% of the money is going to the banksters to buy our debt. We're even sending it over seas so it doesn't look like we're buying it all ourselves......Gold is going higher than you imagine.....perhaps soon you won't be able to buy it. So stop worrying about the price....

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  66. Wow, just a little away from 26.50 and 1320....break out the champaigne and warm up the credit cards.... ;-)

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  67. @GG

    That message board is dry now.

    I think ultimately neither these hedge fund managers w/ insider info nor China BOS is interested in keeping the price very high to help the Johnny-come-late weak hands. They'd much rather see Johnnies being smoked by EE so they can come in to buy at low to maximize their gains. We therefore should adjust our trading strategies to their mind set, especially to China's. They are in no hurry to turn their 2T reserve into zero.

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  68. Feed the Turd.

    Click banners on your way out.

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  69. Turd, enough already with the quitting talk. You provide an interesting and thoughtful outlook on precious metals. Like others, I often only understand about every second or third word but I appreciate your efforts.

    Also, I went to Hammy's site once and noticed that all of the comments were made by him. That's just a little creepy.

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  70. Turd,
    maybe you should start considering the key COMEX dates for gold & silver into your analysis.

    Option expiry for silver is tomorrow, for gold the first position day is friday.

    Wouldn't those dates (or the hours before them) be a very nice target for the EE to smash the price!? Hard to quantify, but at least as a some sort of warning... :)

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  71. Jeff: Ignore anyone who claims that QE ends with QE2. They are either hopelessly uninformed or purposefully misleading you.

    Christine: Your questions about GOFO and LIBOR are way above my pay grade. Sorry. As for my personal money, its primarily in mining stocks, physical silver and commodity options.

    kiwi: Yep. The moment of truth will soon be upon us.

    Tim: Thanks. I'm simply attempting to impress upon everyone just how much I believe in my "research". However, I'm NOT trying to get famous or become some pay-for-access dipshit. I will go away if I decide that my info is useless.

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  72. silver: you raise an interesting point. It would be fun to lay those dates over the long-term charts...

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  73. If they managed to get price to 1330 and 26.66 in Hong Kong I really wonder how low they can get the price at the London fixes and globex the next days.

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  74. turd & george,
    exactly. I "fear" that it's there intention, to smash the price in the next 2-3 days. Open interest for feb. gold is just too high for them, OI for silver just keeps on rising (EE has been hiding them). Warehouse movements for silver are ludicrous.

    Harvey just mentioned that the "end days" of paper might be near. Also looking at wynter_benton on Yahoo (hard to say if she's real... in this case, better doubt it, but listen), the whole paper - physical relation seems to get more and more out of control. LBMA is still reporting backwardation (although not on 12 months, as of today), gold & silver have decoupled from the dollar with the index falling below 78...

    The next days might be really "interesting" (painful?) to watch...

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  75. Any looking for moral support or just a good read:

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lundeen012211.html

    "Earlier I said I wasn't looking at the rising stock market as much as I was waiting for another shoe to drop. In 1933 that shoe was a bank holiday which was followed by a 101%, four month gain in the Dow. But this will not be the shoe to drop on our market. Our "policy makers", such as Doctor Bernanke and President Obama, have placed their "policy" requirements over the natural order of things. In a world choking on debt servicing, and failed assets, the balance sheet of the Fed proves that the current "policy" is that of a losing gambler risking everything by doubling down again and again on borrowed money. But difficulties created by excessive credit creation will not be cured by additional "injections" of credit, no matter how many Ph.D economists believe it can be. So when the Doctor's bet comes up craps, what happens next? I think a really, really big stinky shoe is going to drop. It will be well covered by CNBC with no commercials breaks, but other than that, I haven't a clue what it will be. But for the people who trusted their wealth to gold and silver, my expectations are that you'll be glad you kept your precious metals, and left the financial, and high-tech shares to the chumps."

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  76. Urexsi: Good stuff. Thanks.
    I must admit that even I, The Great and Powerful Turd, am getting worn out by the relentless selling of the EE and their monkeys. Dawn is close to breaking but it sure keeps getting more dark.

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  77. I don't know anything about Clive Maund, but his latest post is worth sharing (found it at 321gold.com):

    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

    The article starts with this:
    We are now seeing a convergence of indications that a reversal in the Precious Metals sector is at hand that will lead to a major uptrend soon. The last Gold and Silver updates posted on 11th January were bearish over a short to medium-term time horizon and have been proven correct as gold and silver have since fallen substantially, and stocks have taken a real beating. However, in view of the current strongly bullish constellation of indications, it now looks like the downside targets for gold and silver were set too low, although our downside target for stocks has just been hit.

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  78. Turd and others, any thoughts on this article...

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/22/131236/gold-backwardation-fears-revisited-uh-oh/

    and Harvey Organ's comments tonight........

    "something serious is going on inside this comex vaults. Today we had zero activity on every front: no withdrawals , no deposits, and no deliveries.
    and we have first day notice next Tuesday????? This is totally unprecedented in comex history!!"

    Would love to know peoples thoughts on this. Things are in fact becoming quite interesting!!

    Brick Top

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  79. PM holders always need to maintain a long term perspective.

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  80. silverto500--couldn't agree with you more.Wednesday is expiratons for gold /silver, The FOMC is meeting also on Wednesday, and Obama gives his State of the union speech tomorrow .I'm sure Obama tomorrow and Bernanke will continue the lies and tell every one the economy is improving .
    Do does anyone really think you are going to see higher gold/ silver prices this week ? don't think so ,the game is not played that way --probably test $1300 on gold before week is out.

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  81. I sold out all my miners a few days ago and am sitting in cash waiting for a decent correction. My physical PMs I will sit on for a long while yet.

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  82. Turd Nowhere did I insinuate the end of QE. Both posts clearly state there will be NO end to future QE's

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  83. Robert, good point.

    Obama & Bernanke definitely don't want to see au & ag exploding while they are telling everyone that the economy is "nearing escape velocity" lol

    And the EE is screamin' and kickin' to get those longs off their shoulders. It might be indicative that the asian markets are already down today - normally, those "corrections" start later on tuesdays / wednesdays.

    I personally think that unfortunately it is unlikely that au & ag will recover during this week. I hope to be proven wrong. But then, I don't know nothing - I don't have any insight knowledge, I have been "just" following the fundamentals of PMs very closely for quite some time now.

    And Turd, please keep up the good work :)

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  84. Thanks, GG.
    Another respected analyst that agress with The Turd!! ;)

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  85. The au and ag numbers tonight suggest Alf's numbers, and Alf's numbers suggest Turd's numbers.

    Overnight the Chinese welcome these dips, especially tonight, as their new year is fast approaching.

    Relax, everyone, and maintain the troy ounce as your numéraire.

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  86. Christine, consider the following:
    "COGOFO = LIBBR – GLOR. Here LIBBR = London interbank bid rate; it is the rate at which a bank in the London market is willing to borrow from another. Furthermore, GLOR = gold lease offered rate; the rate at which bullion banks are willing to lease out gold. Again, LIBBR is not in the public domain, so due diligence is required to come up with a reasonable proxy."
    http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFGoldBasisScrewedPP5.pdf

    Great work, Turd!

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  87. Harvey is becoming more "eloguent" with each ponzi move....heheheh....

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  88. Please keep up the good work Turd. I don't know who the hell this hammy fella is, but p!ss on him, I come to YOUR site to read what you have to say because you make good arguments and your a damn man about it.

    Enjoy the feeling you get by staying true to yourself and true to your word. A lot of folks nowadays don't know what that feels like.... That's a shame, but it is what it is.

    I'm going to be picking a 100oz of silver shortly. Up yours Blythe.

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  89. Turd,

    Just wanted to thank you and the rest of the folks for this experience. Luckily I'm young and have a productive life ahead of me, so I can afford to plunk down a few thousand shares (or a few futures contracts) of whatever for the hell of it.

    I've been getting punched in the face over and over for the last few weeks, but ultimately, it's worth it. It's been a real eye opener to get some skin in the game. Looking at my piddly margin account with a few futures in it, getting thrown around like a rag doll, really makes you appreciate leverage.

    I've been told its far to risky to play with leverage, yet I read stories about institutions (cough, fed, LB, JPM) who have higher levels of leverage AND billions in the game. I've only been at this for a few months, but it all seems horribly backwards.

    I hope you're wrong Turd. I like my job. I like having access to wide array of trinkets, commodities and services. I like not having to own weapons. Ultimately though, you're probably right, so 20% into the "meltdown fund" is reasonable.

    I'm just glad to be around to watch all this unfold. It's going to be epic.

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  90. Was it the same guy who's been bad mouthing your blog rules on Zero Hedge? You know Spaulding...what's his name. That guy lost it recently. I used to like him. He's become a joke.

    Anyway...with fame comes jealousy I suppose. March onward Christian soldiers!

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  91. Turd and others,

    Silver newbie here and new to investing. Not day trader, in for the long term. I have been buying into the dips recently, especially the miners.

    Could you please help me understand some of Harvey's comments. Apologies if they are stupid/basic questions but I am just getting a handle on this situation.

    " ...also be cognizant of the fact that paper gold and silver will deviate from the real price."

    What is harvey referring to by "paper gold & silver"? Is he referring to stocks of gold & silver miners and that they might continue to go down even if gold & silver goes up. Doesn't make sense. What am I missing?

    "I urge all of you not to leverage."

    Is this used in some trading lingo? Is he asking us not to short silver? I ask because I am "leveraging" in the sense that I am buying stocks of silver miners as the price of silver dips.

    " Take physical position of your metals"

    I know most gurus recommend buying physical but for folks like me who are low on cash, is it a bad idea to buy into miners and then use profits from them to buy more physical in the future?

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  92. avi404,

    "paper gold & silver" - that refers mainly to the COMEX futures, where one contract is not neccessarily (and most often not) backed by real gold & silver. The bullion banks can create excess supply by shorting (selling) contracts, thereby creating gold & silver out of thin air. This results in a price suppression and liquidation of long positions.

    Since the paper market is much huger than the real (physical) market, the paper market is influencing (suppressing) the physical market. But only as long as certain physical supply is there. It this cedes to be the case of if supply becomes very tight, physical will take over the price, which will go up, forcing paper shorts to cover.

    "not to leverage" - don't trade on margin. E.g. if buying futures, pay the contract fully, otherwise you'll shoot yourself out of the game because of the high volatility (price swings).

    Buying miners is some sort of leverage because they "overreact" to price swings in gold & silver, but not the one Harvey refers to since you will very likely have paid for the stocks fully. Otherwise, if you have bought the miners with a margin account, make sure that you pay them also fully. Options are another form of "good" leverage since with long calls, you cannot get a margin call.

    So, in your case or if you don't know about margins & options, just sit back and relax. Your strategy is fine. Your portfolio will swing hugely, but that's the fun of the game.

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  93. The paper price is the COMEX spot quote price (http://www.kitco.com/market/). Since 99% of the contract purchased never stand for physical delivery, it's called the paper price.

    "I urge all of you not to leverage."

    Do not borrow on margin or play options right now. Just buy and hold physical metal.

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  94. @avi404, my advice would be to get to know your local coin dealer and buy physical when you can afford it.


    Not all paper is created equal, but for simplicity sake, paper is like an IOU for some quantity of silver. People will someday wake up in the not too distant future to learn their IOUs are worthless because they will redeem for little or NO silver.

    What effect will this have on price of those who actually have the real deal??? Supply versus demand. You will want to be holding silver (or gold) in your hand, not staring at a bunch red numbers on your brokerage account screen.


    On leverage... it's like borrowing lots of money that's not yours to invest, err gamble with... you can make lots of money, but at the same time, you can walk away from your terminal to take a monster dump, only to come back and find your account blown up.

    Trust me on this, read Turd/study/learn before jumping in with both feet... not a guarantee, but a reasonable way to avoid a serious butt fucking, and let me tell you as I've recently experienced, you will not enjoy flying monkeys kicking in your door, with crowbars in one paw and big black dildos in the other.

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  95. Saw this on Zero Hedge. Gold flash crashed to 1300 for a moment.

    http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=w

    thought you would want to know.

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  96. Turd,

    First, I must reiterate how much I appreciate your work here. I really enjoy the links to other excellent resources for info. Having said that, I think you discredit yourself with your excessive technical analysis. Picking tops & bottoms is a fools game. Hearing about head & shoulder tops & bottoms, and things like triple nipple bottoms (I made that one up) just sounds utterly stupid...so to speak. Roughly 1/3 of the time your short term prediction is going to be right, 1/3 of the time it's going to be equivocal, and 1/3 of the time you are going to be wrong. It's much easier remembering the times you are right than when you are wrong.

    The bottom line is that over the long run the PM's are going very high & these daily/weekly moves are meaningless. The two predictions that are most probable is that there's going to be high volatility in both directions & the long term price is going up. If you think you can use technical analysis to figure out how the Fed, the banks, and other countries are manipulating the markets, you are lost. They will manipulate like hell until they can't. This battle will be epic. Keep buying on a regular basis & have some popcorn available when things really heat up. Lastly, cross your fingers the price stays low as long as possible so you accumulate as much as much possible before SHTF. Not trying to be offensive, just my $0.02.

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  97. There are two spot prices: bid and ask.
    Also, compare COMEX spot with LBMA spot.

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  98. Thanks silverto500, Jack & Bobby Joe for the explanation and helping out a newbie. :)

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  99. @song : crosschecked with BBG and Reuters ... nothing to see there...

    So looks more like a mismatch of data on that chart

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  100. Their overplaying the dumping of PMs like this is only going cause a fracture between paper and physical.

    The difference between the two will become stark and make it easier for a physical market to develop outside of paper as paper loses all credibility and becomes an obvious fabrication.

    The beginning of the end for paper maybe.

    Getting ready to buy back into miners. With a bit of luck the next few days will see the dji in the red and gold silver held down....that will get me some yummy prices for Australian miners.

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  101. Turd,

    While I have 120% appreciation for your views on the fundamental aspect of the PM era, I do believe that with a slight improvement in your T/A skills you might perfect the art of war we seem to be fighting against the big boys. Dont forget that at the end of the day Gold, Silver etc. are still nothing more than a trading vehicle for a vast majority of market participants. While long term fundaments will prevail, general market imbalances must be taken into account. It is a 0 sum game to most and with that in mind, a lot of long holders of PMs as well as other commodities must be shaken out, stops hit and option premiums collected.

    Anyway keep up the good work brother & the flow of your regular updates!!

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  102. oh yes, today just may be the day I buy stocks

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  103. Turdster,

    I check in every day but have not read the comments for a while so I missed the whole Hammy fiasco. A while back I noticed that Hammy was tying himself in knots with dopey short term predictions so I stopped reading his posts.

    Stick to your guns, you do good work and we like you. You've come a long way since SNL!

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  104. "... -- praying for a big short term drop in silver, so I can max out my brand new no-interest Chase credit card at apmex."

    Me too. :-)

    I will rotate between zero interest rate CCs. After Chase it's on to BAC's card. It's satisfying knowing the Banksters are financing my Ag purchase at zero interest.

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  105. AVI-

    Welcome to PM's! But I would strongly suggest that you take a week of your life, take vacation if necessary, close yourself off by yourself with your computer, and learn everything you can about PM's, Paper and physical, BEFORE you put much $ into PM's. Your questions were foundational enough to make me want to offer caution - educate yourself on the risks you are taking, and then put the amount you are comfortable with into PM's. (Start with this blog, Harvey Organ's Blog, Jim Sinclair's Blog, Kitco site, Casey Reasearch (Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Daily). Look through the archives.

    But don't take too long! I'm holding 20% in PMs (physical, miners and, yes, paper as a trading vehicle) as a core position, and will push the gas to 80% when the current intermediate/yearly cycles in Gold bottom over the next few weeks.

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  106. Good morning, everyone. It should be an interesting day.
    In reviewing the comments, I want to respond quickly to dryam.
    I only try to call bottoms for fun. Please read the info at the top of this note regarding my permabull stance...that which caused the one-trick Turd stuff in the first place. Like you, I btfd and hold physical. If, by calling bottoms, I can add some fortitude to those with queasy stomachs, all the better.

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  107. Prepare for another beating...

    Thank you mam, may I have another.

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  108. Noting to fear here, unless you are need cash in the near future from your PMs.

    Otherwise this is a real laugh and a gift to all looking to get gold and silver and those who want to top up.

    The reason we can be supremely confident on PMs is the absolute global economic mess that is no closer to being solved, and the ever worsening situation of the US and its reliance on QEn. Black swans can also visit any every day. In times like this you must own PMs.

    One should however balance their wealth between PMs property cash certain stocks to suit the present and future times.

    Turd's blog is great for a technical and gut feel for the market, as is Harvey's. In the end though the paper market is at the behest of the EE above the law.

    How long before JPM LBMA and paper blows up?

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  109. You give free opinions Turd, it is our call to accept or not. New to your blog, like it but not convinced about the hat yet. As new will be interesting to see how your thoughts pan out, we hold physical au and ag.

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  110. Silver just bounced hard off 26.55. Of course its almost 7 am EST, so the fun should begin shortly.

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  111. I love the synchronicity of a guy named Turd who calls bottoms for fun! Keep up the good work Turd. I join the others in my appreciation of all I learn here!

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  112. Biosci, Flaunt

    Enjoyed your back and forth.

    I will add one thing: What's going to happen when States and municipalities begin to go BK? Many have legal prohibitions against deficit spending.

    I think the newest form of QE may well be the rescue of the muni market. As it will be a rescue operation, it will take the varnish off QE2's alleged 'focus' on lagging growth.

    All of this might well play out against a background involving Spain's and Ireland's potential default/rescue.

    If only part of this takes place, you can only imagine what will happen to gold.

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  113. Chauncy-

    My major fear is that we have become "bailout world", that any problem in the world will be met with a blizzard of cash from some debt holding structure, and as each of these structures reaches it's limits another structure will be built on top of it to hold more debt...we are seeing that now with the Fed, the Euro, the IMF, etc. So we will never see any actual defaults, just a slow erosion of the value of the dollar/euro/whatever.

    I think this dollar deflation will lift the price of PMs, but I wonder if the market has now "priced in" QEforever, and decided that there's no reason to hedge using PMs since a market crash will "not be allowed".

    Well, a few weeks will tell us!

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  114. Gold looking shaky

    http://cs2.it-finance.com/LCG/itcharts_lightplus.phtml?key=7bc9bab78ddb325bb9cc1d3b44c8888a&uid=72354d65196120ffa5f91a109e76ac7e&id=212018&language=en_GB&helpicon=t,f

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  115. There's shocking news in the sports betting industry.

    It has been said that every bettor needs to look at this,

    Watch this now or quit betting on sports...

    Sports Cash System - Automated Sports Betting Software.

    ReplyDelete