Lots of BS and SPIN this morning about President O'Bottom's speech last night. We're being led to believe that the most liberal and progressive president since Wilson has suddenly become Margaret frickin Thatcher. What nonsense. For some no BS analysis, watch this interview of David Walker. I've met this man before so please trust me when I say this: He is an honest, non-partisan number-cruncher and a standup guy. He was the Comptroller of The Currency (there's a oxymoron for ya) for several Republocrat presidents. He knows his shit. Listen to him cut through the BS: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1767081323&play=1
Besides, as we all learned a few days ago, cutting spending at this point will only work to eliminate any fractional "growth" the economy is producing. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-does-uk-stagflation-mean-us-and-western-economies
And growth is the key. All of The Ben Bernank's bets hinge upon the resumption of economic growth because without it, tax revenue only continues to plummet, which prompts the need for greater and greater spending, which means we are farther and farther away from the point of no return, which means that spending must increase again...
And, hot off the presses is this, also from ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cbos-revised-budget-sees-2011-deficit-rising-500-billion-15-trillion-4-trillion-deficit-thro
At the end of the day, why would any rational, well-informed person sell their precious metals? Additionally, when selling your PMs, you are converting them back to fiat...the same fiat that is losing value day after day. Do not let your heart be troubled. We are correct.
I have just two charts for you this morning. First, a 30-minute Feb gold. Its a 30-minute chart only because that gave me the time frame I'm looking for, in this instance. Note that 1328 is your level to watch today:
The dollar still looks like roadkill. It may reverse course and surprise us all...that's certainly happened countless times before...but it needs to bottom fast and reverse course through 78.20 and 78.50 or else its headed to 77 in short order.
More later as we wait and hope that yesterday's lows hold. TF
11:15 EST UPDATE:
OK, so here we go. Exactly as forecast, predicted and otherwise hoped for, our double-bottom attempt has come. Though I am very confident in my numbers, I'm still as nervous as a whore in church.
Copper is hanging in there and as long as it can maintain its footing above 423 or so, it will provide support for the PMs. Crude, too, is slightly positive and the grains are kicking ass so everything looks good that our double-bottom will form here.
In an ideal world, here's what I'm hoping for today:
We bang around at and/or slightly above yesterday's lows of 1322 and 26.54. So far, today's lows are 1324 and 26.65. This is close enough but don't be surprised if we take another shot down to get even closer. As the metals rebound later today, we begin to see steps 7, 8, and 9 play out as I described yesterday. Copied below for your convenience:
"Why those levels and why a double bottom? The process goes like this, in 10 easy steps:
1) Price drops to easily recognizable support point. In this case, 1320 and 26.50.
2) Price stops there as speculators have put buy orders there to test the water and shorts have put cover orders there, too, as many use these projected support points as good places to take profits on shorts. See today's trades at roughly 8:00 am EST on both charts.
3) This rally from the projected support levels gives the bulls (us) some hope. It also strikes a little concern into the hearts of those who are still short.
4) That first rally fades as everyone in the market waits to see what happens next.
5) Market drifts back down to near support points. Thanks, Blythe.
6) Support holds and double bottom is confirmed.
7) New buying comes in as greed replaces fear in hearts of longs.
8) Even more buying emerges as fear replaces greed in the hearts of shorts.
9) Market moves out of downtrend and begins to take on look of uptrend. In this case, a move near $1350 in gold and $28 in silver. (Don't laugh, we were just there yesterday morning.)
10) Consolidation above the double bottom low takes place and market is now poised to resume UPtrend."
For now, sit tight and let things play out on this very important morning. TF