The Turd is honored that the folks at silvergoldsilver.com stopped by Turd's World today to alert us all to their new video. It's an instant classic and a must watch. Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AId_UiPtPpQ
Only 310 views, so far, so lets take this viral as quickly as possible. Below are links to the first two parts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPg4qTNTP-E&feature=related
Again, thanks silvergoldsilver for visiting. Please return the favor and visit their site soon.
http://www.silvergoldsilver.com/
6:45pm UPDATE:
The metals have opened HIGHER!!! I'm stunned! After the beating we sustained last week, I've just gotten used to seeing red all over my screen.
Crude is soaring. UP about $1.50 and pushing $90. As mentioned yesterday, this is critical to the short-term success of our PMs so keep an eye on it.
thnx SGS and Turd....linked it to my blog....
ReplyDeleteGreat video, thanks talking bears.
ReplyDeleteGreat video. Sounds like silver is going down to $20 or lower in the short term then with the asian shorts?
ReplyDeleteHere's a good read about Geithner. Link courtesy James Rickards:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.smh.com.au/opinion/obamas-economic-saviour-savaged-as-keating-lets-rip-20090306-8rk7.html?page=-1
silvergoldsilver site down.
ReplyDeletehey can anyone give me a bunch of silver/gold stock names which are intresting. I dont know where to look from
ReplyDeleteThe SMH article is fascinating!
ReplyDeletePoints to bear in mind: Keating has a massive ego and the SMH generally pumps out complete rubbish (but this one looks good).
OK, let me be the first to admit: I don't understand this. "Insider info" is that the Chinese are supplying unbacked shorts, I get that. It's in retaliation for 300M oz that we stored for them in the Clinton era but now can't deliver? Is that right?
ReplyDeleteWhy would the Chinese do this? So they can trigger a run on physical at lower prices and crush Blythe and the COMEX? An act of economic warfare?
And if that's the case, wouldn't it behoove Blythe to cover JPM's shorts, run UP the price and discourage the purchase of physical? Especially if the Chinese are going to flood the market with shorts and drive the price back down again?
The COMEX is already in a state of "soft" default, judging by the alleged premiums being paid to settle in cash. Are the Chinese trying to bring about a "hard" default? Really? And bring about $150/oz silver and a potential collapse of the dollar? That seems to me like the last thing they would want while they own $2T+ in USD.
I KNOW there are flaws in the way I'm thinking this through. Would love to hear a lay explanation.
Think the explanation is China would have a huge hoard of Silver.Either ration Silver onto World Markets sending price sky high or imagine if they produced their own Gold and Silver standard.Whatever happens does not bode well for JP Morgue or Fed.Wonder if this links into Tropos affair ?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI don't buy the "statement" that China is naked shorting silver right now. I love the bear videos and any good bullion dealer. TF, I love the analysis that you've been doing on PMs lately. Its been spot-on --- no pun intended!
ReplyDeleteAnyways, I wish I had more cash free so I could buy more PMs... If only there were a way to get paid --before-- I did the work at my job...
Turd,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a view on what this video means? When talking about the "price" of silver, you always refer to the price of silver futures or spot. If this video is to be believed, the futures price and spot price are going nowhere but down, but the actual price of physical silver is going up? If that's true, when/how will physical silver's pricing become divorced from spot/future silver's pricing?
Turd, how low are we going then? If this is true I need to get out of AGQ and UGL immediately. Was hoping to hold them up to 32 and 1550.
ReplyDeleteI personally have dumped all of my paper silver and took am steadily taking that cash to the bullion shop for real silver. No more paper silver for me...
ReplyDeleteFrankly, I've had trouble understanding this whole "China" theory, too, but didn't Ted Butler come up with the idea? Anyway, the theory is out there and its being purported by folks a lot smarter than ole Turd so it needs to be considered.
ReplyDeleteBurka: check this out
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/this-might-take-minute.html
My guess is that china knows that the USD reserve game is up and before it goes down they want to cash out with as much metal as possible. Maybe loading up on paper shorts is how they are playing it... for now.
ReplyDeleteI've seen something along the same lines postulated by FOFOA, in which paper will burn (including futures, it seems), while physical goes to Mount Olympus heights, but only for gold. I do not understand all of what he (FOFOA) says, even though he explains it in simple language, so I'm not certain if the same potential scenario is also being alluded to in the video. I know this isn't much help, but if I had all the answers, I'd be on a white sandy beach with a huge rum & coke.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, where can a cheap swine such as myself get real time streaming quotes on crude oil, for free?
ReplyDeleteif you dont want to keep your PMs all at home, and you know a bank is a bad idea, are there places in the US, like PM dealers who store it for you? i've seen that in europe, places that arent banks but sell PMs and store it for you. any ideas if that exists and is a good idea?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
ReplyDeleteBeen a trader and physical buyer for more than a decade. No one would love to see those metals take their rightful place(value) than me...Still, I see any pop as a great spot to take a defensive positon. Puts will be cheaper on an uptick. "They" will have to cover their mountain of silver short positions and I don't intend to get in the way....
ReplyDeleteJust read all the posts....Tyler, I would definitely get out of AGQ....I have been a gold bull from it's inception....Wed, I took my first short position ever. GLD feb puts. Going to look at SLV tomorrow.....Just be prepared to reverse course at a moments time...
ReplyDeleteSupply is down, demand is up -- globally. The metals are going higher and that's that. My charts tell me that we are in for a decisive move higher in the coming days. Minds games being played out across the spectrum of media, but all one has to keep in mind is the absolute demand that exists for the metal.
ReplyDeleteGoing vert Turdites!
ReplyDeleteWhoot whoot!!
BTF'nD!
I have to say...WTF? A couple of months ago, when Turd started this site, we were calling the Chinese the BOS (Buyers of Size) and JPM as the one doing the massive shorting. Now, we're saying the Chinese are doing the massive shorting? My head hurts. Some obvious questions:
ReplyDelete1. Who are the BOS if it's not the Chinese?
2. Are JPM's massive shorts happening on behest of the Chinese or the Fed?
3. If the US government knows the Chinese will never cover the shorts, why are they allowing those shorts to happen. They could short-circuit this nefarious Chinese scheme by clamping down on naked shorting.
4. Who in the hell would give the Chinese enough credit to open more naked shorts when it's "common knowledge" that those shorts will never be covered?
5. How does the paper and physical price "get divorced"? Paper (derivatives, futures, ETF) pricing is set to reflect the physical, isn't it? It doesn't just randomly have value that has no relation to physical. Fraudulent ETFs may go to zero (yes, I'm looking at you SLV), but that doesn't mean all paper, minors, stocks, etc. will go to zero as well.
6. So who's shorting silver to infinity? Is it JPM/FED, or is it the Chinese? Wouldn't both want the price of silver to go to zero - the Chinese so they can accumulate at lower prices, and the Fed to preserve the US fiat system? So who who are the buyers of size, and how do they stand a chance against the two world superpowers shorting silver with unlimited funds?
7. Why do the Chinese have to short to get their physical back. They can just let JPM/Fed continue suppressing the silver price while they gobble up physical using the fiat dollars they have.
Overall, the Chinese shorting theory has more holes than swiss cheese. It seems like utter nonsense to me.
re: FOFOA... I read his latest, and it seems to me his logic can be applied to silver as well as gold... Silver's rise over the past year tells us some of the "Giants" ("Mr. Market") see silver as a big player in the new economic dynamic to come. Plus, the ratio of average Joe's like us to the elite "Giants" is millions to one, and we're the ones who can't afford to add to our physical stash each week by buying gold (and who's going to pay those inflated premiums for 1/4 oz and 1/2 oz coins anyway?)... thus, we're buying silver and that is creating a momentum of its own. And when paper begins crashing, watch out. IMO of course.
ReplyDelete[ Supply is down, demand is up -- globally.] dd, that's been true for a decade and we've still seen lots of corrections. Remember '08 ? Your supply/demand forces were present then, to no avail.....just saying....I'll be happy either way, especially higher.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Jeff. I think I might have to get out of those. Anyone have better ideas for a place to sit about $10k? Besides physical metals. Preferably commodity ETFs for the next two months. I also have UGA and JJG.
ReplyDeletetitanium: I must correct the record.
ReplyDeleteI, The Turd, have never once said that the Buyer(s) of Size are the ChiComs. Many have inferred this but I have not.
If the BoS exists(and a review of the daily silver chart since August provides evidence they do), they are, in my opinion, a loosely connected consortium of Middle Eastern and Far Eastern billionaires. IMHO.
Tyler: These folks might be able to help you:
ReplyDeletehttp://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/opening-options-account.html
To the guy who wanted to know about PM storage:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.delawaredepository.com/
As for the Sunday evening higher open for silver, I'm skeptical. For you wave counters, even the bullish long term counts are have met their price projections in the short term. But there's no way I'd ever dump physical here.
FR (first majestic) for stock
ReplyDeleteminefinders for call opts (still cheap)
Turd, my apologies if I misstated what you've said. There have been lots of inferences to the Chinese being the BoS in the blog comments, so maybe that's where I picked it up from. To your credit, in one of your Dec 24 comment posts, you did say:
ReplyDelete"Turd Ferguson: Mr. Butler et al clearly know more than I but I think the "massive chinese short position" idea is nonsense. Just a bunch of speculation based upon the presumption of which excuse JPM might choose as they run for cover. The Evil Empire is short massive quantities of gold and silver because they are attempting to suppress price at the behest of the Fed. That's it. Its not any more complicated than that."
So you and I are on the same page on this. I found the original Ted Butler article you mentioned here: http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary12-21-10.shtml
Just makes no sense. If they really wanted to buy physical at lower prices, they could have sat back and let Ben and JPM continue shorting silver on their own volition (to keep the US fiat regime intact) and quietly and patiently picked up physical at the supressed prices.
Shorting massively exposes them to enormous losses when the supply/demand imbalance takes hold, and as fiat regimes collapse. Why would they put themselves in that kind of position when they could let Ben and JPM be their patsies?
Jeff: I agree with your comment about silver performance back in 08, but you have to admit that today the game is a lot different especially when it comes to the retail buyer...let's see how she does this week...
ReplyDeleteI have been posting about my portfolio of Junior Miners and have the link for the most valuable link regarding these junior speculative miners... its all about the amount of resources available and how likely they are to be able to take advantage of the supply squeeze...
ReplyDeletehttp://thehardrightedge.com/2010/12/04/incredible-week-coming-to-junior-miners/
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A couple I personally am in and am VERY bullish on are:
Nuinsco Resources: NWI.TO / NWIFF.PK
Rye Patch Gold: RPM.TSX? / RPMGF.PK
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Look around and you will find all your answers if you search. I present all information to getting to where you need to be.. (in my opinion at least)
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For now,
Scott J
I'll go with Occam's Razor here. They open JPM's books and AH!- they're hedging treasuries, purchased with fed supplied booty. Hey if someone gave me billions and I could push around a tiny market with zero financial consequence to me, I'd do it to (:
ReplyDeleteAgree with titaniumvt that this China shorting theory seems extremely suspect... when silver was above 30 most of the PM blogs were basically saying, "and if the price corrects too low it would cause even more buying/demanding of physicial, thus putting shorts in further trouble"... Alot of noise lately trying to scare longs out of their positions, total BS if you ask me.
ReplyDeleteOk, if you listened to the cartoon bears:
ReplyDelete1) China got ripped out of 300 million ounces.
2) To get the silver back, they have embarked on a plan as follows:
3) Go both long (Buyer of Size) and short.
4) Long to take delivery.
5) Short to keep the price down.
This both gets their metal back and does it as cheaply as possible. Once the swamp has been drained of metal, I suppose the price can rise.
titanium: Thank you for the Butler link. Very, very helpful. Mr. Butler needs a "Best of Turd Ferguson" link on his site, wouldn't you say?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think Andrew has nailed it in the comment above this one. The Chicom story has now been proliferated by the Forces Of Evil as just another way to scare weak-handed longs.
Silvergoldsilver doesn't count in that category as they are clearly VERY bullish on the PMs. They just place more stock in the idea than I. Who knows, they could be right, just like Ted, but I'm not with them on this one.
Jack: That's pretty much it. Not as funny and cute as the animated bears but, as they say, brevity is the soul of wit...
ReplyDeleteps
ReplyDeleteTurd could use some revenue so please don't forget to visit our "sponsors" on the way out.
And turn out the lights, too.
Are GTU,CEF,PHYS,PSLV equivalent to taking physical ?
ReplyDeleteThanks !
Hi Turd et al!
ReplyDeleteOn that oil thingy, looks like crude may be finding some support from the pipeline closure.
*
Alaska Pipeline Closes
Drop in Production by BP, Others Threatens to Push Oil Toward $100 a Barrel
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704482704576072043011328776.html
*
At least for the short term, fate jams another fundamental monkey wrench in the [golden] technical spokes.
GLTurd!
This is getting silly. Does anyone have actual proof for any of this? I've only been around for a few months, but it seems every other week its some grand new theory for whats going on.
ReplyDeleteI remember dec was going to be the month that the Comex "blew up". Then I remember the EE was stuffing shorts into off-shore companies (wtf does that even mean). Now China is going massively short to... buy silver?
And really, can anyone even explain the mechanics of a "COMEX default" since that's apparently going to be the end of days. On 100k contracts, SI could go to 100 and that's only 35B of penalties. We print that every few days.
I guess I'm getting tired of the hype and talking bears. This seems like noise in the larger narrative that the "first world" is unfathomably in debt, and eventually our currencies will go to zero.
@Theos
ReplyDeleteThe bears are good marketing and play very well to the peanut gallery. Just remember the fundamentals and ignore the hand waving.
I suppose the worst thing one could do now is bet the house, unfortunately for sellers of bullion that is precisely what they would like you to do.
Buy for the right reasons, I'm wildly bullish but have to keep reminding myself that pigs get slaughtered.
The Turd has been remarkably prescient with regards to short term price moves and is infinitely more qualified to prognosticate than I am but even he isn't a sure thing.
Theo.
ReplyDeleteThere are two markets for gold and silver: CRIMEX and LME. CRIMEX is where you can rig the price with empty paper contracts while LME is where you buy the physical immediately.
China was probably fooled into a physical silver swap long time ago when US official physical silver stockpile was used up in the manipulation game. Chinese government was very naive back then so they took the bait only to realize now they gave silver away to get a pile of fiat junk back over the years.
Pissed off at being a fool, China's new game plan is to load as much gold and silver as possible from LME. But remember China has 2 trillion junk to unload so they don't want the price to shoot up too steep. They thus just dabble with it, buying a stash and wait for the pull back and then buy again.
China knows they'd get the pullbacks as Morgue and LBMA have no choice but periodically rig it @CRIMEX to prevent themselves being savaged by the squeeze. Heck, China can even provide own rigging like raising interest a little here and there. The goal, however, remains the same: exchange as much fiat junk as possible for physical gold and silver.
"I've seen something along the same lines postulated by FOFOA, in which paper will burn (including futures, it seems), while physical goes to Mount Olympus heights, but only for gold."
ReplyDeleteFOFOA is carrying the flame for some posters who constructed the model is runs with about a decade ago. The model is proposes is very gold centric and possibly correctly, states that there is no place for silver as a 'monetary reference point'. This caused much discussion on ZH, I think for 'his model' he is correct.
Of course, his model may not be enacted by the CB's, but he is 'probably' correct as CB's hold no silver.
What he misses (at least in what is written, perhaps not intellectually) is that silver sufers from the same 'many papers for the same oz' problem that gold does.
His focus is on the there monetary purposes of gold, and how silver cannot satisfy all three, hence a fiat+gold combination is optimal.
He sees gold as the only primary vehicle to carry value through the 'transition', as it's the reference point. However, since the 'storage of value' function that silver uses is -clearly- better than all other physical objects except gold I see 'the people' choose silver to go along for the ride, simply because gold is so heavily locked up. Silver also has an advantage in the 'divisible' metric. Minted gold is NOT divisible without destroying some of it's value, so silver actually has better utility in that regard as it's more granular. e.g.
After transition(on his 50k\oz number) a 1kg bar of gold will be worth say 1.7mil. For the same outlay today you'll get say 47*1kg bars. This gives you a far greater granularity. (His opinion on silver not maintaining the ratio ignored)
HTH
I am bullish on silver but I think that silver is unlikely to be officially monetized by governments - unlike gold which is basically monetized right now. Silver has too many industrial uses and if it were officially monetized it would hurt industry.
ReplyDeleteHowever, in a hyperinflationary environment demand for silver is going to explode through the roof. I have an eye on converting my silver to gold when this really gets going.
Nice little spike during Blythe's usual attack time. A signal that she's going to be covering today?
ReplyDeletecalifornia womanl: I believe the answer to your question is yes. I have a bunch of GTU myself. The folks that run GTU and CEF also have a silver trust. www.silverbulliontrust.com
ReplyDeleteEric
In so far as I'm concerned the jury is still out for me relative to the Ted Butler thesis.
ReplyDeleteWhat does make more sense to me is that Silver miners (they really are not) such BHP and RTZ have been shorting quite a bit visa vie JPM. I suspected that for quite sometime now, especially when it was proven that Barrick was hedging gold a while back.
After watching this interview of David Morgan I am more convinced than ever that miners have been playing a role (probably a major one) in shorting Silver.
Watch this first..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvp2Ds0o6ro&feature=player_embedded
Here is another great interview with him here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7u9lDFUQ2c&feature=player_embedded
@Theos
ReplyDeleteIf you want to know what's really happening with gold and silver, without all the hype, noise, conspiracy theories, etc., look no further than Franklin Sanders' excellent daily commentary:
http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/
Stand for Delivery- 3/29/2011
ReplyDeletehttp://standfordelivery.com