Saturday, January 15, 2011

Return Of ChartDaddy (updated)

10:30 Monday UPDATE:
First, take a look at the 24-hour Kitco charts to the right. As we all suspected back on Friday, the slightest bit of dollar strength drove silver all the way down to the critical support of 28 overnight. 28 held if only because the dollar rolled back over at around 5:00 am EST. Going forward, I still think what "Blythe" said in my little movie will prove accurate. Let HSBC and the LBMA pop 28 some time in the next 24 hours. Blow out a few stops on the way through and then reverse things in the early going Tuesday. We'll see. I admit I'm only guessing in this instance but sometimes hunches can be your best indicator.
The Big Story here in the early week is the state visit of Head Chicom, Long Duk Dong. Don't forget how awkward it was the last time he and President O'bottom were together:
But, seriously, the status quo shills in the MSM will write off statements such as this:
They'll claim that this is just "posturing" but I can assure you that it's not. The Chicoms, as one of the worlds biggest creditor nations, are simply looking ahead to the inevitable moment when the world recognizes the lunacy/fallacy of having the world reserve currency issued by the world's largest debtor. That day is coming. Soon. The status quo shills be damned.
More later.

Happy Saturday, everyone! Before I settle in for what should be a classic Pitt/Balt brawl, I thought I should update/prepare you for what is going to be a week of significant consequence.

A couple of quick things before I unload these charts on you:

1) Thanks to everyone who watched the silly, little video I made late yesterday. I whipped that up in about 30 minutes but I must admit that I kind of like it. I used some of my PayPal "donation" money to fund it and I have enough credits to make 7 or 8 more. Maybe it'll become a continuing series of "conversations" between Blythe and Chief Monkey #1. If you missed it, here's a link:

2) CIGA Richard has filed another fantastic report on Santa's site. Some background: Have you ever wondered how a bankrupt bank can claim $1B in assets and only $800MM in debt yet be broke? So did Richard and he started digging. What he's uncovered would be considered fraudulent in any other sane, rational and honest period of time. In this current age, it's normal and fine, I guess. The main thing here is the bigger message. If the First National Bank of Bumfuck is insolvent, bankrupt and otherwise broke when you look under the hood, what do you think Citi or JPM or Wells or BoA look like? And if nearly every freaking bank in the country is insolvent, do you really think QE2 will be the last batch of fresh greenback to be printed? And does this make you want to buy more PMs or less? The latest, must-read update is right here:

3) Everything you'll see below in this post will be in regards to commodities in general. I'll tie it all back in to the PMs, of course, but, since the vast majority of money managers still look at the PMs as commodities, it is important that we follow the entire commodity complex as we attempt to ascertain the general trend in price of our precious PMs. To that end, read this article on OPEC and oil. The governments of the Middle East are none too happy with our egregious money printing as it is lessening the value of their only natural resource. Suffice it to say, when oil hits $100, gold will not still be at $1365.

OK, so here are your charts. Again, take these as components of a much larger picture. In that picture are gold and silver and we want to decide if we should be more excited by greed or fear at this point. First up, the Almighty Dollar:
Note that, though we fell very quickly this week, we are still range-bound. Chances are higher that the dollar will rebound this week than they are that it will break down. However, if it did breakdown...

Next is the CRB Index. If you're not familiar with this index, you should be as it is the most-followed of the commodity indices. Here's where we start to realize what an extremely important, significant week is coming beginning Monday. Note that we have hit almost an exact double-top on the weekly chart.

So, to prevent a double-top, we need some components to continue to rally. Well, here's crude. The same crude that OPEC would like to see at $100:
And here is copper, which rests at upon a trendline and needs to go higher very soon or the chart will start to look nasty...which will lead the PMs lower still.
Note that I drew the line through the 12-hour closes, not the lows as I am looking for as much advance warning as I can get. Now, lets look at our two favorite grains, soyas and wheat. Soybeans have very strong fundamentals and should be bought on any dips. Wheat is simply pissing me off. Both, however, are in strong uptrends which is helping to drive the CRB higher.
Let's sum up before we get to gold and silver.
1) The CRB is either poised to move higher or paint a double-top. This week begins to answer that question and the answer has implications for the prices of gold and silver.
2) Crude looks rangebound but fundamentally positive so this should help the CRB.
3) Copper could go either way and is our "coal mine canary", if you will.
4) The grains are providing solid support for the CRB, too.
OK, here's your updated, 12-hour silver chart:
We clearly stand on the precipice which is why I'm going to such great lengths discussing the CRB. If commodities in general begin to roll over and the CRB double-tops, you can bet your booty that silver will plunge through 28, down to 26.50, perhaps even 25. I know we are all mainly holding physical for the long-term but we need to follow the price swings as there is no sense in over-paying in fiat for your next purchase.
Now here's gold:
Continues to be in the same range that started back before Halloween. No real reason to get excited or nervous until and unless we break out of the range.

In summary, the metals have had a tough week and look like they might want to go lower. General strength or weakness in the overall commodity sector will influence this next move. For now, indications are that the "commodity trade" is still strong and heading higher but this is a very important week in terms of determining the future trend. Keep a close eye on copper and crude as they will either help or hurt the prices of the PMs. For now, I've raised some cash and I'm waiting to buy on this dip in price. I'm just not sure if we've seen the bottom of this dip yet.

Have a great weekend. Get ready for an important week ahead. Turd out.


  1. It would take nearly 140 days of global silver production to cover the shorts held by the 8 largest traders

    Something wrong with that picture!!

    Apparently, thi is a big year on year improvement

  2. Martin Armstrong's latest as well as a much older but important read:

  3. I don't understand copper. There is or has been real estate bubbles in the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, and China. Where is the demand? JP Morgan has cornered the paper market & then there's an article on Bloomberg's front page today (see link below) saying that JP Morgan is proclaiming physical shortages are coming in copper. WTF, physical shortages? And with silver there's no physical shortages? Copper keeps powering up when I simply can not see the demand. How in the hell can JP Morgan play both sides of manipulation game & get away with it?

  4. Nice job, Turd. Minor typo on this statement: " Suffice it to say, when gold hits $100, gold will not still be at $1365." Think you meant the first gold reference to read "oil" instead.

    I have a feeling we see silver pressured for another week or so. Wouldn't be surprised to see it taken down to $26 and change. And that's just with EE manipulation.

    The big wildcard for me is that the S&P is long overdue for a big correction. If we get another downdraft over the next month, PMs won't be spared.

    Since I can't adequately predict gyrations in a manipulated market, I kept the faith and picked up more silver today. If prices go down next week, I'll buy more next weekend. I'll keep buying physical into single digits if they let me, scaling my purchases up every step of the way (FUBM). If we get a strong equity induced selloff in gold and silver, I'm backing up the truck starting in the low $20s (an equity market correction is the only thing I think gets us back to those levels).

  5. Love the video....You aren't the same person who did the famous "Buy the Dip" are you????

    Really appreciate all you do!! Thanks!

  6. Swapped some silver for gold today. Still have plenty of both (physical) though, so don't read anything into it. Mostly I just get "itchy" and want to do something. Have had a big run in silver, not as much in gold. Don't sweat what the prices will be next week or next month. Look at the big picture. If PM's correct, pour yourself a cocktail and lay back for a few months. Life is good:)


  7. Geez, sorry but this Martin Armstrong from Princeton has lost me...any others have any insight into this fellow...Turd, what do you think...are we all just sheeple investing in physical gold and silver waiting for the slaughter?

  8. I enjoyed your video. It's sort of an "inside joke" and it was good to laugh.

    What does "CIGA" stand for? I know it has something to do with Jim Sinclair, but I never knew what it's meaning is.


  9. Apparently a little google goes a long way, so much for this fuck and his outlook...oh, and there's more, much more to this shithead...

    Martin Armstrong (born 1950) is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. Indicted in 1999 on charges of bilking Japanese investors, he spent seven years jailed for contempt of court before finally pleading guilty in 2007, and he is now serving a five-year sentence for conspiracy to commit fraud.

  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

  11. interesting read there about silver..

  12. this one works better


  14. Love your blog and your commentary.....but..... I got into PMs and mining stocks last fall as an investment and man, it's been good to me....but the last few days have been a real slap in the face. With every indicator (dollar down, inflation up) pointing up for the PMs, they crashed. If TPTB can manipulate the commodities to the extent we've seen this week, who says they won't do it for another month, or 6 months, or forever? After all, TPTB and the TBTF banks will never be forced to reveal what's on their balance sheets, and now with the CTFCs blessing, they could drive the price of any commodity to zero without a peep from the authorities. In the face of a rigged game, TA is useless, the price will be whatever Blythe wants it to be.

    I still have some PMs, and I might jump back in in a big way if they start to significantly rise again. But investing is about making money. If TPTB have decided that the PMs will be crushed, it seems more savvy to invest in something that TPTB are going to rain money on (which for right now seems to be equities in general and financials in particular).

  15. I'm with you timpa re this "Economic Confidence Model". It reads like some sort of science fiction:

    "As we now enter the final leg in this 4.3 year segment of the 8.6 year Economic Confidence Model, from the PI target of 3.14 years from the major high..."

    Yes, PI has to do with waves... Clever.

    "Our global model had more than 35000 variables."

    I mean, even with a 100 years of daily data, his model would have zero degrees of freedom. Huh?

    Can someone tell me what this stuff is? I'm skeptical of anyone who talks tech gumbo.

  16. @

    be sure to check out harvey organ's blog. some good insight there. Here's the thing: You speak of TPTB and the TBTF banks and you assume them to be the pit bosses / the house in the casino. PM's to me are a long haul kinda real long haul. Large picture, ask yourself has anything really changed in the global scheme of things? (that's rhetorical, no need to reply to this post even)..I mention harvey's site because there and on Along the Watch Tower there is the unalienable truth as it relates to the banks and their losses...housing and loans looms large here as it did during the last Great Depression...This is a Greater Depression and low and behold what's in the mine shaft..housing..I mean whatever bro..there are weak hands out there...They are in fact counting on weak minds and hands here to sell positions...ESPECIALLY PHYSICAL...DYOD and go with your god

  17. "You can forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light."

    -- Plato

  18. 'Copper keeps powering up when I simply can not see the demand.'

    Dryam, you need to only understand one thing - JPMorgan OWNS the copper market in a way that makes silver look pristine and open. JPM owns 90% of the copper market on the comex. In other words, they cornered the market, and they did this very recently, likely as a hedge against their losing fight in silver. That's all you have to know about copper's 'demand'.

  19. "Gold is money and nothing else."

    -- J.P. Morgan, 1913

  20. timpa,

    Do you know the Armstrong story or are you popping off on something you know nothing about?

  21. I would advise everyone to have a look through this document:

  22. A few years from now we will look back on this time as the lull before the storm,the debts incurred will be seen as so unpayable that there was only one cure,the start of which we see more and more everyday,hyperinflation.Gold and Silver by this time will be unaffordable to the majority of the population.Buy the dips and keep the faith,hyperinflation is coming the EE,Helicopter Ben and Blythe will see to it.

  23. Just a note here if you are concerned about silver and gold dropping lower. Youtube " Lindsey Williams " start with part 1 of 12 and listen to all 12. Or go to:
    After listening to them all you will feel better about buying PHYSICAL ONLY and it may change your perspective as to why you should buy it. Price doesn't matter soon - only the number of oz's you will have when it happens!
    Stay focused about getting physical and get as much as you can as often as you can. When " it " happens you'd better have what you want at that time and apparently time is running short. Studied this area for two years now and w/o sounding like a " nut job " I believe most of what you will hear is accurate - only the exact timing is unknown.

  24. got bit by the fear bug, either that or it's trolling at its finest. How did silver rise from 18 to 31? The absolute LAST THING TPTB want is for us "sheep" to lose confidence in their now-ponzi fiat. I seriously doubt "they" engineered a dramatic rise in silver. Sure, there's been alot of piling on by MOMO traders, and they'll bail at any hint of a pullback. But the fundamental reasons for owning physical cannot be denied. Fear not.

  25. On the subject of "if it looks like they are not winning, they just change the rules" and in general on the topic of TPTB, I thought you might enjoy this illustration (his other work is superb as well):

  26. Piter, thanks for the Crossroads Cafe link. Finally, a succinct explanation of the mechanics behind how/why the Chinese would have massively shorted silver."

    "...It is has been my contention all along that the real short position on silver is not JPMorgan or HSBC but mainland China. The USA needed a hoard of silver supply to compliment the banking gold supply to keep the suppression scheme alive.

    China had about 300 million oz of silver inherited with the overtake of China in 1949. The gold was air-freighted to Taiwin (69 tonnes) but the silver remained in Shanghai and Beijing. In 1990 the usa had 2 billion oz of above ground silver and by 2003 their supply went to zero. They needed the Chinese supply.

    Here was their supposed deal: in or around the year 2000 and events leading up to now:

    1. USA gives most favoured nation treatment to China.

    2. China lends silver in a swap position. China gets dollars as collateral and USA gets silver.

    3. China can get their silver back at any time say past 3 or 4 years.

    4. China loves the deal as they pick up gold on the cheap.

    5. It is now 2010 and China want its silver back but the usa state that the silver is gone. They can keep the usa dollars in collateral.

    6. China refuses and is angry. They now massively short on the comex knowing that they will not supply the metal. It is up to the bankers.

    7. They use conduits on the buy side and take delivery.
    This is what O'Malia is frightened of when the CFTC sees the swap book on Morgan."

    The point that both Harvey and Ted Butler have made is that China is behind the big short in silver being held by JPM and HSBC (Hong Kong Savings Bank), but if pushed for delivery will throw its unsatisfied metal claim with the US on the table and will say, 'Get it from them.'

    This does seem a little convoluted to me, and the first time I heard Ted mention China as principal behind the big silver short I thought it was ludicrous.

    But I do think there is an element of unstated truth in this situation somewhere, and that there are serious scandals buried in the naked silver short position and the gold markets that will eventually see the light of day.

    Is China black-mailing the US with evidence of market manipulation in gold and silver? It sounds like the plot of some novel, but stranger things have happened when government goes into partnership with finance..."

    Not sure I buy the story. There's still a couple of things that don't make sense:

    1. The Fed has been shorting silver for decades to keep the fiat regime intact, long before the Chinese swap deal. What happened to all those shorts?

    2. The US and China have the same end goal if this scenario is true - suppressing silver prices. They should be working in partnership to drive the metal to single digits, so China can buy its silver on the open market, and the Fed can pretend the dollar isn't toiler paper. With the two world superpowers shorting silver into oblivion, why/how in the world are we anywhere near $30?

  27. titaniumvt there will be a time where you think $30 was extremely low. Remember, we're still talking about worthless fiat


  28. Lindsey Williams..paraphrase:

    "COMEX admitted in the last few days that they have 107 million ounces of silver in their vaults...but...admitted they have 720 million ounces of contractual obligations from other countries (China, Japan, etc)....COMEX cannot meet it's obligations".

    At 8:20 in:

  29. Many believe Armstrong has a lot to offer. What he offers is done so gratis. Whether or not one accepts what is offered is, of course, one's prerogative. There is more than enough online to help one decide.

  30. Bay, all you need do is google Armstrong for yourself...I'm not given to "popping off"...

  31. I appreciate all the comments! And not a troll....I got into PMs in the August timeframe and rode the rocket up. And I totally agree that the economic fundamentals point to it continuing to rise, I've been an avid reader of the blogs and "When Money Dies". But the world is filled with examples of fundamental truths that never achieve primacy in the face of power that wants things to go their way

    With a relatively short timeframe to (hopefully) retirement, I'm trying to maximize my returns in the here and now. The next few weeks/months will probably tell, but I'm concerned that TPTB have decided to "change the game" and the PMs with stay depressed or trade sideways for the foreseeable future.

  32. I do understand about hyperinflation, I'm an amateur student of seems to me that the Wiemar Republic played an "honest" game of printing money in every increasing amounts while trying to keep democratic institutions in place. These days, I think the game would be changed, and we'd quickly end up with a military protectorate or a Chevez style dictatorship if things got that crazy. And in either of those cases assets are not important if they can be "socialized" (yes, there's the black market and possibly fleeing the country with your PMs, but that's another discussion).

    So I'll probably sit on the sidelines for a while, maybe accumulate some physical at dirt cheap prices, and watch and wait for the next PM rocket ride to go "all in" again.

    Thanks all for the comments!

  33. titanium: Nice summation. Good work.

  34. Kiwi: You are not a troll. Keep posting comments, please.

  35. Santa thinks Armstrong was railroaded.
    Whether or not he was does not invalidate his opinion, which is worthy of consideration.

  36. Maybe I'm just a simpleton but I've always believed that THE FED is, ultimately, the primary manipulator of the PM "markets".
    More on this later today. (after the Chicago/Seattle game)

  37. I too believe that Ben is manupulating the PM's here. I noticed that on Thursday with his town meeting on CNBC Gold was hit hard as the USDX tested 79 and bounced when he indicated that growth would come in at 3-4% this year. The claims numbers in the morning really sent the USDX into a tail spin. It was like get "the FED on TV to stop this selling" sure looked unreal!! This is not going to last very long once investors realize they have been had!

  38. @Piter: thanks for the link
    @titaniumvt: thanks for the summary

    I'm a bit new to the PM's so please help me through my ignorance.

    The article reminded me of the following KWN post back in November:

  39. "Blogger Harvey Organ said...

    silver should advance in the coming weeks as shortages prevail.

    Hecla will do fine.

    January 15, 2011 3:52 PM"

    Harvey has been right numerous times, perhaps we are at a decent buying opportunity.

    Also Jim, or anyone else for that matter, when was that Lindsey Williams interview done? I'm at part 4 of the youtube series, but something strikes me that it's a show and not entirely truthful. He talks about buzzwords, but they really aren't. I don't know, something is fishy with that guy.

  40. Just from trading perspective (not long term physical holdings), I think Friday was an excellent entry point for silver. Trend is still up on a daily chart, we hit the 50 DMA, and the market is oversold. Perhaps things have changed and we see a little run on 28 on Monday, but the downside was small and the upside is as good on Friday as it was 2 weeks ago. I could be wrong and I get stopped out for a small loss, but I do wonder if this is just another managed event in order to part paper bulls from their cash.


    What an absolute nut job. Let me summarize:

    "I have a magical black box that takes all the data in the world, mushes it together and spits out dates of importance. The model is so complicated that you wouldn't understand. I also dont have it since the government took my computer away. Here are some pretty pictures involving sine waves (which all have the EXACT same period, lol). Did you know that cycles relate to PI in a fixed way? It's an amazing coincidence, isnt it! Did I mention I cant even do basic wave addition? "

    And for my favorite quote:
    "...It is the cyclical nature of life from the beating rhythm of your heart, the cyclical events of the seasons, weather, movement of planets, to even how artificial gravity is created by the cyclical spin."

    That's right folks, artificial gravity.

  42. Thanks Mr T for your great blog! Click the ads boys and girls.

  43. @Jim

    The website you recommended is the most fascinating information I have ever heard. Thank you.

  44. california womanl - Thanks for the comments.
    All should listen to these 12 segments completely before deciding if Williams is " off base or as stated earlier fishy " as he os older and gets off track at times but when you hear all he has to say and think about it there is indeed something to what he says more than just a little. Think about this : If you intended to take down an economy and destroy peoples wealth you would not want the population to run to the money that you intend to use after the event happens. That's why countries and central banks ( and citizens in the know ) are buying gold. My guess is they are also buying silver too and in BIG quanities. Last week we had two days where approx. 1.7 million oz's of silver left to again guess off USA shores. There is a late almost frantic effort to get as much as possible as fast as possible - most hidden but to those who watch the signs are there. I pray a collaspe does not happen but I'm afraid it's being planned and when you look at the the world it's a stick of TNT waiting to be lit. Get the things you need soon and pray things don't get to crazy.

  45. @Jim

    Now I am listening to Lindsey Williams February 2010 predictions. He has been unbelievably accurate.

  46. The Elite plan everything that happens . He is friends with two - one just passed away. The 12 parts was recorded in Nov. 2010 after one passed away. My thinking is : If just one person on this site ( which I find awesome TF ) hears these warnings and prepares then all I can say is " Thank you God " for awakening one more.

  47. Hey california womanl - Do you have the Lindsey Williams February 2010 link to share with us on his predictions?

  48. Martin Armstrong
    Lindsey Williams

  49. Not that the message is bad. Basically "There's a shit storm a-comin and some gold and silver might help protect your family". I buy that alright. But these guys are pretty poor messengers IMHO.

  50. After reading the article on oil price, it seems as if $100 oil is going to be off a little. What leads me to believe this is the comments from the Saudi oil minister:

    "OPEC's most influential oil minister, Saudi Arabia's Ali al-Naimi, said on Friday he was still happy with an oil price of $70-80 a barrel and there was no need for an extra OPEC meeting before the next scheduled one in June."

    The Saudis produce the most oil and control OPEC essentially. They also have ties to our gov and banking industry. Do not underestimate US influence on the Saudi's. From aid to bases, we are tied at the hip to them for oil(us) and security(Saudis fear of Iran).

  51. Ya know Barb, I think the fact that there are messages out there is what it's all about...that we have the antenna so to speak to pick it up and move on it is a gift...a day at a time.

  52. timpa: Agreed. I think the first time I commented on this site it was something to the effect that we all have an interest in PM's in common, for whatever our own reasons or beliefs might be. Our politics, our theories, our favorite websites, or whatever, may all be different. Maybe even polar opposites sometimes. We all have taken different roads to get here, but we ARE here. Together. So let's just rejoice in that, and be as helpful to each other as we can.


  53. Timpa and Barb ( Eric ) - Well said. Bits and pieces of data from all sources when pieced together form a picture at some point and we all contribute by being here. As things heat up soon the info we gather and post here will be critical.

  54. Agree with, Barb. The Lindsey Williams stuff is fishy. I listened to the 12 parts in the background while working on other stuff.

    Some of it makes no of his big scary predictions is that the Fed will one day buy all mortgages, and so therefore will own every mortgaged property in the US, and can set your payments to whatever they want. Oooh, scary. So let me get this straight...At some point, the Fed will own mortgage backed securities and can retroactively change the underlying loan contract with borrowers...And the borrowers can't do anthing (e.g., walk away) if the new terms are egregious. It's the path to servitude [cue scary music]

    Another big scary part of the plan: before the Elite takes over the world, they have to destroy our religion. So their master plan is to have lending agreements with churches all over the world that allow them to padlock the doors and prevent congregations from gathering inside for worship. [cue scary music]. Oooh... So America will stop believing in God when they aren't allowed to congregate in their churches.

    The guy's a complete shill. Even his fundamental premise is suspect. The "Elite's" own the world. They've got a master plan for world domination, and nothing (including information disclosure) happens without their approval. They told Lindsey their entire plan, and of course, Lindsey Williams creates a 2 hour CD to sell to people educating the masses about it. Oh, and he's also decided to make an entire series spilling all of the inside secrets he's gleaned from the past 35 years of having the Elite confide in him.

    What a load of crock - Don't waste your money buying this crap.

  55. I was just reading this one last night, even though I think it's from last summer. This guys stuff usually makes pretty good sense to me. Too bad I'm too cheap to subscribe and get the last juicy bits of the articles. Don't want to start a flame war, just more info for folks to throw into the hopper...


  56. Turd and others,

    You may find the following elliott wave analysis of Gold of interest. I have had to cut it down in order to fit as a comment.

    Tony Caldaro is quite skilled in elliott wave analysis, and I've been following his work for a number of years. You can see the charts that he's referencing at his website:

    Gold bull market … far from over
    Posted on January 16, 2011 by tony caldaro
    The bull market in Gold is entering its tenth consecutive year of a long term uptrend. In the entire history of the US stock market, 1885 – 2011, there has only been one long term uptrend that was longer. The thirteen year, 1987 – 2000, long term uptrend that led to the dotcom bubble in the late 1990′s. For many, this type of bull market in Gold will be a once in a lifetime event.

    The bull market started during the dotcom bust, and the secular low in commodities, in 2001 when it was only $255/oz. Since this is more of a monetary event, (as are all bull markets in Gold), than a price appreciation event, this bull market has been unfolding in five Primary waves. One must keep in mind that Gold is not becoming more valuable. Its purchasing power remains relatively constant over time. This bull market is unfolding, in price, because the currencies that are required to purchase one ounce of Gold are becoming relatively less valuable. This is exactly what occurred during the 1933-1946 and 1967-1980 Gold bull markets as well.

    Since Gold is always aligned with the commodity 13 year secular bull market, we are expecting Gold to top around the year 2014: 2001 – 2014. As noted above the bull market is unfolding in five Primary waves. Primary I took three years, 2001 – 2004, as the price of Gold rose modestly from $255 to $432. Primary wave II bottomed in 2004 at $371. Primary wave III lasted four years, 2004-2008, as Gold rose a much more impressive $371 to $1034. Notice the relationship of the rise in Primary wave III ($663) to the rise in Primary wave I ($167). Then during the economic meltdown of 2008 Gold declined in Primary wave IV to $681. At that low Gold entered its final primary wave of the bull market, the historically parabolic Primary wave V.

    This bull market is expanding in complexity. The 1987-2000 13 year bull market in equities was even more complex. Primary wave I is quite simple, with an extended Major wave 3. Primary wave III was a bit more complex, with both Major waves 3 and 5 extending. Primary wave V is already more complex. Not only is Major wave 3 extending, but Intermediate wave five of Major 3 is also extending. This is exactly how markets prepare to go parabolic. The waves continue to subdivide, with minor corrections along the way, forcing buyers in at higher and higher prices. Naturally, there will be a sizeable correction at some point, when buying subsides, during Major wave 4. Then Gold will enter the parabolic Major wave 5. This will likely coincide with a worldwide economic event. The most likely culprit will be the continuously rising inflationary pressures in the fast growing emerging economies.

    We expect Major wave 3 to top in 2011, and Major wave 4 to bottom in 2011 as well.

    Currently Gold is in a Minor wave 4 downtrend. We’re expecting this downtrend to end in February around the $1315 area or a bit lower. Upon completion Minor wave 5, of Intermediate wave five, of Major wave 3 will be underway. This next uptrend could be quite dynamic. Historically, and even in this bull market, the fifth waves have been the strongest of the five wave sequence of a similar degree. In review of the entire bull market, thus far, these fifth waves have had a 2.62 to 4.24 multiple fibonacci relationship to their third waves. This suggests two potential upside targets for the end of Major wave 3 in 2011: $1700+ and $2200+. We’ll take the conservative target of $1700+ for now. You can track Gold along with us using page 10 on this link:

  57. I think this might be the more recent stuff from iTulip:


  58. By the way, Lindsey Williams' 12 step plan for survival starts with these two nuggets...

    Step 1. Keep six months of food in your house. When the SHTF, there won't be a shortage of food on grocery shelves. The problem is that the US dollar will be worth nothing in hyperinflation, so you won't have the means to buy any of it and will starve.

    Step 2. Keep 1 to 2 months worth of cash in your house. When the SHTF, you may not be able to withdraw funds from your bank accounts for a while. "Cash is king, and you'll be secure if you have a few months worth of cash for expenditures the dust is settling."

    Anyone else see the contradiction? On the one hand, wheelbarrows of money won't be enough to save you from starving, but on the other hand, cash will be king if you set aside 1 to 2 month's worth now.

    Ok, I'm done with this fool. :)

  59. Thanks JW. Good stuff. Elliot Wave can be kind of tough to understand sometimes though, so let me take a stab at summarizing. If I screw something up please let me know.

    He's expecting maybe 1315 in the short run, 1700-2200 sometime in 2011, but then another "sizeable" correction also later in 2011.

    That would be followed by Major wave 5, of Primary wave 5, which in plain english would be called "The Big One", going parabolic and topping around 2014. Is that about right? Sounds good to me.


  60. titaniumvt I can't help but agree with you, though it would be prudent to realize there is at least a grain of truth in everything...even insanity. That being said there were a few words to the wise. I for one feel insanity creeping up on me daily and it is only others input that helps keep me grounded.

  61. As a short footnote...this is by far the best blog on PM's on the web and we should be grateful that Turd has given us this opportunity to try and continue to secure our lives together.

  62. Barb,

    Yes, you got it right; the move up to 1700-2200 this year, starting in February, will be Major Wave 3. Once this wave is finished, it will be followed by Major Wave 4, which will the the sizeable correction.

  63. timpa
    don't worry about that insanity thing creeping up on you. the worst that'll happen is that you'll start to think you are way handsomer than you really are.
    just my two cents

  64. Tony Caldaro's Elliott Wave Analysis for Gold -- Implications for Silver

    I contacted Tony Caldaro to ask whether he had also done a similiar analysis on Silver. He just responded with the following comment:

    "We track Silver but not have done anything lately in regard to analysis. We are expecting Silver to perform in line with Gold during the next uptrend, then underperform duing Gold's Major wave 4.

  65. Oh Brad, that's not what the women say...


    futures market is good for knowing delivery months in ag and au...figure out the action and you can save some fiat in purchasing physical. I am assuming most on here know of this site: . Check it out on the dips to see what's out there ag-wise before making your purchases..Much cred to harvey organ site too..tight maturity date on POMO Outright Treasury Coupon purchase settling on the 18th...hope the sack man is getting better at excluding debt issued in the last 4-6's that for a fucked up state of affairs...seriously though, anybody still looking to off load PMs? i'll take 'em off your hands fer ya!

  67. JW, et al: Just to clarify my post, the Elliott Wave guy is saying "The Big One" would top around the YEAR 2014, not the PRICE 2014. I didn't see a price projection in his material for the final top. I would think that making price projections in a parabolic, bubblicious, final wave 5 would be pretty tricky business. Let's just say, for now, it should be BIG! Way north of the 1700-2200 for this year.

    Seems reasonable to figure that silver would have larger moves, both up and down. That's generally how it goes.

    Hey Turd! Let's get a new post. Too many comments on this one and the page is too long!


  68. FYI, anyone who's buying 100oz silver bars... Apparently there's some fraud going on with lead bars being sold as silver:

  69. @ flaunt

    Been hearing and fearing that myself...talked to a bunch of folks...been sayin stay in 1oz. rounds if possible..nice and neat..fits in your pocket nice and easy...silvertowne..aren't they the folks who mint US eagles?! idk

  70. flaunt believe it or not China is big into this...not the gov't but the crooks...also rounds can be suspect...know your dealer.

  71. Thanks to unum mountaineer for the tip on the recent ZH post:

    VERY INTERESTING STUFF, with analysis from an angle I have never seen before. Highly recommended for all.


  72. I respect Armstrong a lot - he has written some great, thought provoking stuff. I also see where he is coming from re: silver. Silver is unlikely to be officially monetized; only one metal is needed to serve this purpose and if you look at the markets it's pretty clear which metal that is.

    Silver will be temporarily handy as money during a hyperinflationary collapse when making basic exchanges for which gold is unsuitable due to its much higher value. This prospect for temporary, unofficial monetization due to currency problems is about the best thing silver has going for it. When the dust settles, silver is a commodity.

  73. Wow!!
    That ZH article is really, really interesting. An absolute MUST READ for all.
    Buy physical.
    Take delivery.
    The time is now.

  74. And please take a moment to read and comprehend this. The BS artists of the MSM will mislead you by saying this is just posturing and nonsense. Wrong! This is where we are headed. The world is moving forward without the "safety" of the dollar-as-reserve-currency. Ignore this at your peril:

  75. And you definitely should spend some time pondering the implications of this:

  76. "$28 Should Hold on Silver, After Final Move Down

    One trader out of London commented, “The physical market is still extraordinarily tight here. Somewhere around the $28 area there should be a firm base as there is tremendous physical demand in that zone.”

  77. I hope he is not the same trader that was calling for +150$ gold by now.
    Word verification.."ingata".
    I guess I must visit gata site soon.

  78. Silver held 28 like a champ overnight.

    Should be lots of craziness in US trading tomorrow. APPL news, Europe worries. Hold on tight, it's going to be a bumpy ride.


  79. This is an interesting read I don't know if it has been posted before .

  80. Turd, I think we may be headed into a long-term bear market. Bernanke just announced that he's ratcheting down QE-2 and there will be no QE-3.

    Oh, wait, no he didn't.

  81. Turd-

    My heart's with the PMs, but looking around at the world my head tells me different (at least for the short term). Since Blythe and her monkey minions (loved the vid!) have shown how easy it is to pummel the commodities, why would they ease up on Tuesday morning? In my experience, folks who achieve power don't let up for no reason at all.

    I guess I'm pondering if this is a "correction" or a "suppression". If it's a correction then the fundamentals should continue to cause an upward trend in the near future ...but if it's a suppression then there's no way to tell when the pain will end.

    It seems like this latest downdraft was suppression, which tells me to not jump in with my liquid funds till there's some definite signs we are rocketing up again (e.g. the monkeys are out at lunch for a while).

    (FWIW, I have a fair chunk of physical as long term insurance, so like I said, my heart's with the PMs).


    For UK based Turd followers, I have used Bullion by Post a few times and can recommend their services. Here's hoping they re-stock soon.

  83. I agree with Kiwi and have posted similar comments on other sites..."They" have a strong interest in keeping commodity prices down. "They" will put further squeeze on oil and gold(silver)......poppyjim..silver has been used by most countries as currency (remember 1964?). I believe China will begin using silver as currency as they did prior 1940. The dollar is history, they know it, and will be there to assume a "higher" roll.

  84. Regarding shortages, Blythe is still waiting for an order placed with NW Territorial Mint in November, 1010 for 200 ounces. The scheduled ship date is now March, 2011. Blythe no longer has any confidence that the Mint will deliver.

    Separately, Blythe believes that all investors in physical should take note of the changes to Silver Eagle production brought about by Public Law 111-302.

    The squeeze is on. As anyone who lived through gas lines in the 1970s will attest, artificially low prices eliminate supply. This law gives Treasury a statutory "out" to exit the market for supplying 2011 Eagles. Blythe predicts production of 2011 Eagles will be halted before June, 2011.

  85. Blythe, I was thinking the other day about why they'd want to enact Public Law 111-302 now. The two key changes were that the Treasury Secretary (aka, Tax Cheat Timmy) would have the discretion to decide both the QUALITY and QUANTITY of silver mint products coming from the US Treasury.

    Starting from .999, the quality point effectively means that the government can reduce the grade of silver eagles going forward. Quantity theoretically means they could increase supply (flooding the market) or reduce the supply. Given the US doesn't have a stockpile of silver to begin with, they can't flood the market to drive down prices. They can only reduce supply - the inevitable impact of that it will only switch demand for silver to other sources put more pressure on existing supply.

    Either way, I'm never buying another Silver Eagle going forward. I'm going to stick to Canadian Maple Leafs, Austrian Philarmonics, etc. from non-banana republics (like the USSA) that haven't institutionalized corruption and fraud, and that don't have a treasonous, lying, sniveling tax cheat as Treasury Secretary.

  86. @titaniumvt:

    Exactly correct on all accounts. Look for Silver Eagles to have reduced grade silver content and/or reduced quantity. However, I do not believe the Mint will try to fraudulently pass off low grade silver as .999 silver as it would be too easy to detect. Nevertheless, your point is well taken.

    APMEX is already out of 2011 Eagles. If you scroll through their webpage you will see they have precious little inventory left, at least of Eagles. Shortages loom.

    Blythe believes all PM investors should think critically about the consequences of a price-limited silver shortage, or more accurately the lack thereof. Silver is not oil. The oil scares of the 1970s shocked the masses into the conservative revolution and the Reagan era.

    There will be no corresponding shock to the masses as a result of a silver shortage. A few of you gold bugs and silver bugs will care. In short, there are no meaningful political consequences associated with a silver shortage. Government will live with a silver shortage caused by price caps as long as it serves their needs. Assuming this plays out, mining stocks will be gutted over the next six months.

  87. blythe_masters: Do you ever take a break to suck some D&%$? I've been dying to ask you that.

  88. My understand of this Silver Eagle issue was that formerly they were required to go into the market and buy enough silver to meet demand, but now they could reduce the mintage if they want. I DO NOT expect to see any change to the quality (.999) issue. All in all, I think there would be zero impact on the market. If people can't get Silver Eagles they'll just buy other stuff (which is just as good and cheaper anyway).


  89. Blythe, you lost me on the last few paragraphs of your last post. Public Law 111-302 doesn't give the Treasury the right to determine the market price of silver. The net effect of Timmy deciding to limit Silver Eagle and other US mint production is that there will be less US mint bullion for the masses to buy. Public Demand will simply shift to bullion sourced from other sovereign mints (from Canada, the EU, Australia, etc).

    The net effect of a US bullion shortage is that it will drive prices up and make price suppression harder. Higher prices are good for mining stocks, so I'm not sure why you're saying they're going to be gutted as a result of 111-302. Care to clarify your thinking here?

  90. @Barb (Eric),

    That's interesting, and is the piece of the puzzle I was missing. On the surface, Law 111-302 didn't seem to help the Treasury suppress silver prices (in fact, just the opposite).

    But if they were indeed historically mandated to buy enough bullion to meet market demand, this law effectively allows the US mint to stop contributing to demand pressures. I think Timmy is hoping it will give them the flexibility to dampen the stress on bullion demand (and therefore contribute to lowering silver prices). My feeling is that it doesn't work out the way they planned, and that public demand for sovereign silver simply shifts to non-US sources.

    To the extent that other governments follow the US lead and artificially restrict finished silver supply, it's simply going to exacerbate the shortage of available silver to meet public demand for bullion, reinforce the silver scarcity thesis, and drive prices skyward in a self-reinforcing loop.

  91. Titanium....In reply to Blythes mining prediction.......Even with an eagle shortage "They" can manipulate the paper price down and, refering to 6 months from now, hold it there. As sad as it is, miners trade with the futures price. If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade.

  92. Dear Blythe.Silver is a real problem,the price goes down officially,unofficially physical Silver just keeps getting higher,however personally its not been a problem as for the last few decades its been easy to sell Silver that you don,t own and you just settle in fiat.Silver is not the problem fiat is,millions of people are voting with their feet and making a trip to the local coin shop.Your a clever girl get yourself down there if your very lucky they will have some.All the best Bob.

  93. "If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade."

    So, if the price of silver & the miners tank long do you experts foresee that 'they' can hold the line on this? Has anything changed that we expect a different end game?.. I'm thinking that this game can only be played to 'their' benefit for only so long.

    Look.. it's bad enough that the country is being crushed. ..It's disgusting how 'they' always seem to win.

  94. @titanium
    Yeah, I recognize that a lot of people want Eagles for their silver, but when push comes to shove and you want some silver, and you can't get Eagles, you'll buy something else. Canada, Australia, Britain, plus all kinds of private mints that are well recognized in the marketplace. Johnson Matthey, Engelhard, A-Mark, Silvertowne, Northwest Territorial, Mexico Libertads, 90% coin, Morgan and Peace Dollars, the list goes on and on. No coin dealer will hesitate at all in buying back any of these. I think Treasury is way overestimating their own ability to manipulate the physical market just via mintage of Silver Eagles.


  95. and yes it would probably only add to the scarcity buzz in the marketplace and make matters worse (from Treasury's perspective). HA HA HA.

  96. Rather than get a reputation as a perma-bear on this board, I'll throw a hopeful thought out:

    Since, at the moment (or so it seems to me) the price of the PMs is being determined by politics and psychology rather than market forces, the end of the current manipulation may depend on some event/situation that moves most folks away from thinking about PMs. One possibility is if the stock market jumps on earnings season...if the Dow hits new highs during the coming weeks, no one will care if gold starts to creep up again. And it opens the possibility that the push-down was to make the PMs unattractive even if earnings suck and the Dow tanks. The Bernank is clinging to justifying QE-whatever on the basis of boosting the would look really bad if the market was down while PMs stayed up.

    So if earnings look great, maybe the PMs will be unleashed.

    Just a thought!

  97. "If paper silver trades 50% lower, well, you can quess where the miners will trade."

    I disagree. We are already seeing a disconnect between paper and physical markets. Just watch bullion vault prices vs COMEX prices someday or watch the price of silver purchased directly from a miner like First Majestic. When it comes to a seller parting with the physical they get to name their price. IMO the gap between physical and paper will continue to grow.

    Now if a miner is selling silver for $40/oz at some point in the future and the COMEX crooks have driven paper silver to $20, which number do you think the miner will be using to file their quarterly results to the market? As Martenson says, the next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20. Share prices of the miners will DISCONNECT from paper silver prices at some point in the future.

    @DD - Your question for Blythe is priceless!

  98. Totally agree with FISD. At some point the physical and paper markets will disconnect. A willing buyer (say a refiner/minting co.) and a willing seller (say a miner) are not bound by whatever shenanigans go on at the COMEX in any way shape or form. They will find their own price.


  99. @titanium

    Sorry if I wasn't sufficiently clear. I did not intend to imply the 111-302 allows the Sec Treas (Timmah) to set price. It does empower Sec Treas to set quantity and quality of Silver Eagles. What I meant is as follows:
    1. The spot price of physical silver is manipulated artificially low by naked short selling at the Comex by JPM and perhaps the Chicoms as part of an accumulation strategy.
    2. As we learned in Econ 101, an artificially low price will create a shortage of physical. (Expect spreads for physical to grow dramatically).
    3. 111-302 was passed to give the Treasury statutory "out" to limit production of Silver Eagles. Under the law as previously written the Treasury would technically have been obligated to procure physical silver to mint Eagles in order to meet demand.
    4. A shortage of physical silver will have no MEANINGFUL political consequences. Contra gasoline, nobody is going to lose their Senate seat because there is a shortage of silver.
    5. Thus, the U.S. government is now solidly positioned to suppress silver future prices on the Comex as long as necessary.
    6. Miners sell on the futures markets and according to spot prices. Always have, always will. Sales of futures finance current operations. If the price suppression scheme is successful it will kill the miners, and particularly the juniors.

    Barb has it right, with the caveat that the purpose of 111-302 is to insulate Treasury from the costs of an arbitrage play in physical silver created by its own price manipulation. The Treasury is now out. It's game on--all the guns can come out now.

  100. A view on gold stocks from a very good analyst ("good analyst" means someone whose ideas have helped me make money in the past):

  101. the paper market/physical market/general stock market/ relation to the mining stocks conundrum is something that isn't sufficiently covered on many of these sites. glad to see some discussion here as no doubt a lot of us are at least somewhat invested.
    hopefully that can continue to occur without getting into individual stocks - but as a sector.

  102. Silver analysis:

  103. Every single ounce that is not bought by the US Gov (for Eagle production) will be quickly bought by Silvertowne, A-Mark, Sunshine, and the rest. Delivery backlogs will get longer on Eagles, shorter on others. No diff to me or to the market in general.


  104. FISD and Barb.... You can disagree with me all you want.....Been trading miners specifically for a decade. If paper prices go down miners will go down. End of story. And regardless the spread between physical and paper, physical will follow that price.

  105. Kiwi I can make just the opposite arguement regarding a rising stock market might lift miners/gold.....It can be perceived (especially with the lying press) that BECAUSE the market is rising THEREFORE fear is dwindling and we don't NEED metal protection....

  106. Jeff wrote:

    "And regardless the spread between physical and paper, physical will follow that price."

    According to Harvey, Comex shorts are paying off major longs with cash + premium, to avoid physical delivery. Premium is up to 30%.

    I would expect to see:

    Comex price + hidden premium = physical price

    If the Comex price suppression keeps up, while physical delivery gets tighter, I would expect both the physical price and the unofficial premium on Comex to increase.

  107. Jeff-

    Actually, we agree. If my theory is right, and if the stocks go up gangbusters, then the PM suppression will end. But if the earnings are so-so or Steve Jobs bum liver crashes Nasdaq (all the best to him for a speedy recovery) then the suppression would continue to prevent any unfavorable comparisons. Just a theory, but it seems as likely as some of the others posted here....

  108. Dear Turd,
    I worry that Blythe may have found your page and will do the opposite of what you predict. The internet is a small world.
    I had a link to your new video in a conversation on my facebook page. Another friend saw it and commented that his friend had actually dated the white witch herself.
    Still trying to find out the gossip on whether she has a penis or not. Must be hard to keep a relationship when you're up at all hours trying to take over the world.

  109. What's that old saying? "The market can stay irrational longer that you can stay solvent" or something like that. A corollary might be "The market can stay manipulated longer than you can stay solvent". Yes, if they slam down the paper price, miners will get obliterated. And all the rational or theoretical arguments in the world won't put that money back in your account. I guess where we differ ( if we really do) is what time frame we are talking about and what happens to paper vs physical prices. Paper can swing the physical around in the shorter run, but in the longer run I believe physical prices win the day.

    I quit trading miners a long time ago because personally I couldn't take the volatility. I saw too many stocks go down like 50% overnight, whether I thought it was rational or not. I've found that investing primarily in physical personally gave me the fortitude to hang in there and ride some things out that I never could do with miners, buy the dips without so much fear, etc, and I've done quite nicely. If you want to trade miners you have to be concerned with the short term, you have to watch the paper price, because that's what will make or break you. If it's working for you, Jeff, then more power to you. You're my hero man, but it just ain't for me. Finding the gig that works for each of us is what it's all about.


  110. Imho Silver will violently oscillate between paper and physical price. What I know for sure is that once the price is too suppressed, nobody will sell silver anymore.

    Look what happened in good ol' GDR times - everything was cheap, nothing was available. You could get high quality western stuff, but for 10x the price.
    Same nowadays - same form of economy, same health of economy, same outcome. Just your government is not called Politbüro, yet. Who'd have thought that the Russians won the cold war and finally imposed mighty communism upon the US :)

  111. Barb I completely agree about physical. I could care less about the paper price because it's not even an investment in my eyes. It's real money I might never sell.... But most of the topic with Turd is short to medium term and those here with miners need to look at all perspectives....The market is an emotional beast and looking at many views can help in decision making. I've been long gold/miners for a decade. Today I'm short term bearish but some people don't even want to consider that. Ignoring the signs can be detrimental to your acct. You are right about miner/volatility

  112. No doubt everyone has read this before, but just in case:
    Key conclusion:
    "Until the Fed decides to raise short term rates above the inflation rate, it is a great environment for gold prices to zoom higher. How much higher depends on how long the Fed stays on the wrong side of the ball, and keeps real interest rates negative."

  113. The report i just posted from McClellan is actually a year old, but not much has changed in the interim.

  114. eToro is the ultimate forex broker for beginner and advanced traders.