Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Dollar Condition: Critical

This definitely merits its own post as we have reached a point where the next move in the dollar is critical.
Take a look at this chart:
At 78.44 on 11/21/10, suddenly the dreaded PIIG story re-emerged to give the USDX some strength. At the same level today, don't be surprised if Long Duk Dong and O'Bottom issue some type of "joint statement" that gives the buck a boost. If they don't, and 78.44 fails, look out below! We'll see 150 basis points come out real fast and a move to 77 will certainly provide the inspiration for solid bids in the PMs, all the way back up over 1400 and 30.
WATCH THE DOLLAR AND THE HEADLINES VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS!


Additionally, here's what I'm watching as I determine whether or not to buy even more silver calls today.
And now the joint press conference between O'Bottom and Long Duk Dong has begun. Expect a dollar rally shortly.


More after The Death Star closes. TF
Posted by at

51 comments:

  1. kliguy38January 19, 2011 at 12:24 PM

    great post turd.......watchin n waitin

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    I find this Oil/EUR correlation argument very interesting

    You’ll have noticed increased that Middle Eastern central banks have been even more visible in the markets in recent weeks than normal (and they are normally very active)…

    That inspired me to take a look at the price of oil relative to the price action in EUR/USD.

    It looks to me as if since the turn of the year the correlation between crude oil prices and the euro has strengthened.

    The present environment is reminding me more and more of the spring and summer of 2008 when commodities exploded and the dollar traded to record lows.

    The fundamental reason for the link? As OPEC countries export oil in dollars, they diversify a portion of their reserves into euros. Higher prices equals more dollars to diversify, pressuring EUR/USD higher…As the dollar falls, oil rises, prompting more diversification. A vicious or virtuous cycle, depending on your position.

    The 2008 move proved to be a bubble, pricked by the global banking crisis that consumed Lehman Brothers. Perhaps Europe sovereign debt will be the catalyst this time, but that issue has been pushed to the back-burner, for the time being…

    http://www.forexlive.com/160538/all/oil-euro-correlation-coming-back-into-vogue

    ReplyDelete
  3. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    Are you looking specifically for a death star close above 29.05?

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  4. Turd FergusonJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:32 PM

    flaunt: Not necessarily. On the daily chart, a green close and a white candle is always nice. In this case, however, I'm just looking for the next move out of this little consolidation between about 28.85 and 29.05.

    ReplyDelete
  5. snickJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:33 PM

    certainly a novice question, but could someone please explain what the "Death Star" is? thx!

    ReplyDelete
  6. ddJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    Turd, you're about to get your 29.05!

    ReplyDelete
  7. MarvinJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    @turd :

    here in Germany a "possible" default of greece is now Headline..

    maybe they try to play the ball back to Europe on that story...as our economy is doing very well..so told us our minister today ....

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    snick - here you go:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/turds-glossary.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. georgeJanuary 19, 2011 at 12:59 PM

    I see dollar fell lower that 78.40 a while after the post..?
    I doubt they will let the dollar fall during or soon after the Chinese visit.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Turd FergusonJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:03 PM

    George: Exactly. And see Marvin's post above. Just like back in November, to "rescue" the falling $, the Greek story gets trotted back out!

    ReplyDelete
  11. gpamJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    I just bought 2 10 ounce silver bars from Gainesville Coin, $1.00 over spot plus a little for credit card and $17.95 for shipping and insurance. I'm just going to do this every payday for a long time, funds allowing. Don't forget to keep records of your purchases, when the time comes, and we sell them, we'll need the records to figure the long term capital gains. Assuming there is still a Federal government. Never have I been so sure of an investment in the short to long term. It is CLEAR to me the Evil Empire is desperately shorting gold and silver here, to "make things look good" as the US dollar crumbles. Meanwhile, registered silver in the COMEX is now at a record low as of yesterday, and over 4 million ounces disappeared out of the SLV inventories yesterday also - which since silver had an up day yesterday, can only be a sign of great need for physical silver by someone who traded SLV shares for physical.

    ReplyDelete
  12. apberusdisvetJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:35 PM

    Ah Turd; unfortunately the delusionals will buy the Propaganda and the PMs will stall until the inevitable Comex default. BTFD anyway; the light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter.

    ReplyDelete
  13. RoCoachJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:37 PM

    Hmmm. Only $1.00 over spot - doesn't really indicate that there's a shortage, does it?

    ReplyDelete
  14. RogerJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    coach: I think inventory of larger bars (100oz+) are more important than the small bars when there is a shortage.

    ReplyDelete
  15. gpamJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:51 PM

    RoCoach, what are you trying to say? $1.00 per ounce over spot for a 10 ounce bar is a good price. Gainesville coin is rated 5 stars in surveys of national coin/bullion dealers. I believe they could be down to their last 2 such bars and still sell them to you at $1.00 over spot, because that is their policy. To protect their stellar reputation, I do NOT believe they will start marking product up as items become short. Gainesville seems or all of their inventory in stock. They may NOT have any current shortages. But that might be due to being a well run company that has been increasing inventory as they have been going along, instead of running on a just in time inventory approach.

    ReplyDelete
  16. minterJanuary 19, 2011 at 1:57 PM

    Can anyone tell me what is traded on globex? Comex contracts or what?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Silver CellJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:00 PM

    I use OANDA and they trade silver and gold in addition to currencies. You can trade for very little money in your account and 1 oz of PM.

    Leverage is there too if you want it.

    ReplyDelete
  18. MarvinJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:02 PM

    Does anybody get Maple Leaf 1 oz in US ? here it is sold out

    ReplyDelete
  19. gpamJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:03 PM

    Globex is the electronic trading arm of the CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange. You can trade corn, silver, gold, oil or anything in between. These are futures contracts or futures options.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:09 PM

    Plenty of Eagles and Maples:

    https://www.bulliondirect.com

    ReplyDelete
  21. cmillJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:14 PM

    A funny look at what silver may be come Sept.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S28TUjDaDy4

    Worth the view, especially if your a south park fan.

    ReplyDelete
  22. gpamJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:25 PM

    In the world of Extend and Pretend, the Central Banks, JP Morgue, Geithner, Bernank, The US Treasury, continue to suppress the price of gold and silver. Why they do this is a deep mystery in and to themselves - perhaps so they could accumulate most of the world's gold and silver for a small elite using ever eroding and worthless fiat currencies. With the COMEX registered silver inventory at an all time low (at least in the years I have been watching it) you would think the price would keep escalating.. but here we are in a down cycle in the price of silver. But with over 4.5 million Silver Eagles sold month to date, and the hemorrhaging of silver from the SLV inventories and the COMEX, one wonders just how long they can continue this. I'm thinking there is a VERY short time until it goes critical and the price starts taking disorderly quantum leaps forward. JMHO and DYODD of course..

    ReplyDelete
  23. ddJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:26 PM

    It's as if the market has taken a pause waiting to see what surprise statements come out of the Obama/ Hu press conference.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Mr Lennon HendrixJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:39 PM

    Weak dollar, and stocks still have no upside today? Comical. This is how weak the system is. The dollar will have to devalue massively to get a "rally" going.

    I think that a trench has been made for China to get their foot in the door for their "US" investments. And here I will point out that US corporations hold no allegiance to America. They are international and are only US by name.

    Silver testing its recent support, so is gold, and platinum...well, platinum continues to rock the casbah. I do like it!

    ;)

    I am confident that we are moments away of the next leg up. I say that because platinum is doing what I expected, and I think that platinum will lead the next leg. Platinum to at least $2200 by the solstice. The other PMs will follow her lead.

    Peace out, Turdites.

    ReplyDelete
  25. RoCoachJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:47 PM

    @Marvin Plenty of Maple Leafs at Apmex. I received some last week. No signs of a shortage yet.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Bill.Sarah.ConnorJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:50 PM

    @Lennon - I know I'm in the right place when I see guys marking time by the solstice. I love this place!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Turd FergusonJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:57 PM

    And there you go. The UDSX pops up and the PMs sink. Just like clockwork.

    ReplyDelete
  28. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 2:59 PM

    Is that what happened? I was just about to say someone/thing just throttled silver to the downside.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Turd FergusonJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:00 PM

    I'm sure its a reaction to some BS headline generated by O'Bottom and Dong.

    ReplyDelete
  30. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:03 PM

    We've had almost a full dollar swing in silver today. Looking forward to next month.

    ReplyDelete
  31. UnknownJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:07 PM

    Boy Turd, you nailed that one to almost the minute. I'm learning a lot here.

    ReplyDelete
  32. kliguy38January 19, 2011 at 3:12 PM

    here is your headline

    http://translate.google.de/translate?hl=de&langpair=de|en&u=http://www.welt.de/finanzen/article12241896/Finanzmaerkte-misstrauen-Deutschlands-Top-Rating.html

    ReplyDelete
  33. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:13 PM

    March you say?

    "Caesar joked, "Well, the Ides of March have come", to which the seer replied "Ay, they have come, but they are not gone."

    Bay of Pigs

    ReplyDelete
  34. chris brittonJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:18 PM

    Some interesting bits in the Got Gold Report.

    http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/01/slv-metal-holdings-show-negative-money-flow.html

    "...As we write this late Wednesday morning gold is meandering in the $1,370s and silver is flirting with, but having some difficulty holding USD $29. We certainly cannot say that the precious metals are trading in either direction with conviction.
    ...

    Some of the data we review each week suggests that the markets for gold and silver are actually a bit more bullish than bearish. As we noted for our subscribers in a Special Got Gold Report on Sunday, the relative commercial net short position in COMEX futures for both gold and silver are at levels that do NOT suggest a harsh correction is looming. What we have witnessed just recently is a strange situation where the largest commercial sellers of gold and silver futures seem more interested in reducing their collective net short positioning than the opposite – historically so.

    The data suggests more of a garden variety pullback is in play, not a Big Selldown, but it could be a decent buying op if we can be patient enough to wait for it."

    ReplyDelete
  35. ddJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:22 PM

    I'm closing my eye's and buying more paper here. I sense a massive move higher is on the verge of commencing.

    ReplyDelete
  36. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:24 PM

    The currency markets are bi-polar trading on every minuscule headline. Given that generally sane people are drawn to gold and silver, it stands to reason that we should see continued strength. I'm reminded of last years action where the metals were up on Euro problems and up even more on US problems. I'm hoping the correction has just temporarily suspended that behavior. It makes sense in a world where every nation-state is up to its eyeballs in debt and China is pulling out of treasuries:

    While media focuses on the export deal between the US and China, worth $45 billion, they miss the Chinese quietly reducing their treasury security holdings by $11.2 (billion) from October to November. This reduction marks yet another monthly reduction that has reduced the Chinese’s treasury exposure by a whopping $44.3 billion since July 2009. This largely ignored and 'shocking' trend is not alone. United Kingdom’s (labeled United) ascension from a minor holder in 2009 to third largest, nearly 12%, in 2010 is equally shocking.

    http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2011/01/headline-china-cuts-treasury-holdings.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EricDeGrootsInsights+%28Eric+De+Groot%27s+Insights%29

    ReplyDelete
  37. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:27 PM

    Sorry I shouldn't have said every nation state... China is one of the few exceptions.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Turd FergusonJanuary 19, 2011 at 3:42 PM

    Thanks, wrd. Rather predicatble when we get to these important levels.

    ReplyDelete
  39. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 4:23 PM

    I picked up on another thread a comment about the moon.
    OK, here's something to look at. It's not even the most recent tweaking of the Bradley Barometer, but this freebie still has plenty of use. For about a year, I've used this thing and it is uncannily accurate within a day or two of turning points...I've been acquainted with Alphee Lavoie's work since the 80's, and have been talking to him about an updated version of the Bradley module that he broke out of his major trading platform. He's in the final stages of a revision, which makes optimization easier and should take care of the "inversions" you sometimes see. Also, you can tie into your account and run waves into the future.
    On the freebie, I've seen an inversion for AUY...but the key thing is still the turning points.
    Unlike the original, classic Bradley, you can input various time periods and use the RSI to get an idea of the potential strength of a move (but not price).
    The little graphs generated are updated every day.
    Alphee hasn't updated this in awhile (he's in his 80's now and says he can't even remember doing that, it's been a number of years since he put that version together) and it's not as sophisticated as his more recent version on the software. You'll see Silver and Silver 1st trade 10am in the drop down list... and "gold trading starts" for gold.

    For some reason the "silver" is showing the trend as is, while the 1st trade charting is inverted. Regardless, the turning points around 1/23-1/25 are similar and coincide with the cycle analysis done by Ray Merriman...listened to his forecast webinar last week..

    Hit the green button to the left, enter an email address which will be your sign in on a revisit, give it time to load! and read the Help? section to understand how to use this tool...There are drop down lists for "stock index" where you will find silver, gld, HUI, etc. and "main indicators" which is for individual stocks.

    Enjoy!
    http://www.alpheefinance.com/

    Also, you can check out Merriman's Weekly Preview (left sidebar) or this direct link:

    http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/

    I expect to be scoffed at, but...so what! Some may find it interesting and useful for extra insight....

    ReplyDelete
  40. ChrisJanuary 19, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    I just wish I got to trade the asian markets. Buy it cheap first thing, then sell it at the end of the trading period. Wait for the retards over in America to knock it down, then repeat. I guess we could short it on a daily basis and be right 80% of the time....

    ReplyDelete
  41. flauntJanuary 19, 2011 at 4:36 PM

    This is interesting. It's about how Ireland is being allowed to print Euros to fund its bank bailout:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-allows-ireland-to-counterfeit-51-billion-euros-2011-1

    ReplyDelete
  42. cmillJanuary 19, 2011 at 4:45 PM

    has anyone out there heard of http://www.fightingforsilver.com/ before? apparently they are selling rolls of 20 american eagles for $600 plus they throw an extra one in for free.

    saw someone advertise it on youtube but i thought it was to good to be true. any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  43. Turdle GGJanuary 19, 2011 at 5:43 PM

    Chris, you just need an FX trading account and you can trade 24 hours a day. It's an international market, not geographically divided. But I'm sure you know that - maybe you have some other restriction on your trading?

    ReplyDelete
  44. kliguy38January 19, 2011 at 5:43 PM

    JD.... 100 Buffalo silver rounds comin on da cheap....hehhehehhe

    ReplyDelete
  45. jaws136January 19, 2011 at 7:36 PM

    GG at Chris' comment I was going to say the same thing signed up for a free forex account with 24 hr. access to market. Seems pretty reasonable 5cent spread and 100:1. No other fees. I gotta spend some time on it.

    ReplyDelete
  46. AnonymousJanuary 19, 2011 at 8:39 PM

    Canadian whiz Dave Skarica thinks there's a little ways to go on the HUI...it needs to get RSI 30 for the real bottom. It's not there yet.

    You can listen to some of his comments at HoweStreet.com ...1/14 video and charts

    ReplyDelete
  47. PiterJanuary 20, 2011 at 10:43 AM

    we are going to see 26.xx this week

    This is going to be my lifetime investment and pleasure to watch silver flying from 26 till 50?

    ReplyDelete
  48. AnonymousJanuary 20, 2011 at 3:20 PM

    Come on, Turd! It's going to be ok! Just another run-of-the-mill takedown. Doesn't faze us physical guys! Come out from under the table. Don't rant too much though. We all know the game.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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