Tuesday, January 4, 2011


In a nod to my Turdites, a new term must be added to the glossary: BTFD
Buy The F-ing Dips!!!

Now's the time. Buy physical and hold for delivery. Here are some charts for fortitude. First up, a 10-minute March silver showing Blythe in all her glory:
Since The Wicked Witch has had her way, it's time to look for support. These are the points at which the BoS will emerge. First up, 1-hour silver.
Hmmm, that 29.20-40 area looks pretty solid. Let's take a longer look. Here's 6-hour silver:
Yes, 29.20-40 looks terrific and we've already seen silver rally 0.52 off of the lows of 29.32. OK, how about gold. The old highs of 1365 and 1372 have been very supportive in the past. Will they be again? So far, so good. Today's low is 1375 and I have a last of 1381.
Keep the faith. On the previous note, I posted links to several other EE attacks from the past six weeks. review them if necessary. What was sold today will, most likely, be bought back tomorrow. If you want to try to BTFD, now would be the time. Good luck! Turd out.


  1. What do you think the effects of tonight's Globex and tomorrow's 8:25/8:31 raid will be? Are we possibly looking at another attempt to bring down the price $4-5 over the week?

  2. Do you think they will cover before the COT report to be closed tonight and released on Friday?

  3. The previous post had some comments regarding eBay prices. I thought maybe folks would benefit from my post over the weekend which probably not many people saw:

    "As a side note I'd like to relay my observations as to eBay premiums on silver for 2010. Early in the year, Silver bullion (even Silver Eagles) could be bought for a reasonable premium. This always requires patience and careful bidding but generally could be done cheaper than online or locally. As the year went by those premiums went crazy high but you could still get 90% coin at a good price. Then 90% coin went crazy but you could still get Sterling flatware at a good price. Now Sterling has gone crazy too, so in my opinion eBay is no longer a viable source for silver and you are better off going elsewhere. Too many crazies on eBay now willing to pay way too much over spot for all kinds of silver.
    Read into that what you will, but there it is."


  4. ebay is a joke for buying silver. it's for real suckers. you will pay like 30% or 50% more then you should. only makes sense if you are trying to collect a particular kind of object which you cant find somewhere else. for investment buillion purchases it makes no sense.

  5. BTF'nD Turdites!

    So like I said earlier silver's most recent move made a nice bounce. Gold was a little flat. I like gold here but silver provides slightly more upside. I will never get enough of platinum as technically it is extremely undervalued.


  6. Turd, please take a look at this silver chart today: http://i.imgur.com/wmbaC.png

    (source) http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=SI&cot=084691&p=m5

    I'm a newbie to this stuff, so was that someone selling a bunch of silver contracts @ $29 when market was around 29.85? And does this happen every time they rig the market?

    Looking at any other metal, I don't see any drops like that.

  7. Anyone buying silver and gold should go to the closest (or best in larger cities) dealer and buy in person and in cash (many are cash only anyways). This is not something you want a paper trail with when shit hits the fan. You think Blythe is a bitch, wait until the Federalies show up at your front door...

  8. Kept the faith and bought it at 29.40, silver position now at 29.79 :)

  9. Love the replies on how to buy silver regarding eBay, etc.
    Yes, eBay is NOW a joke. Wasn't necessarily before as long as you were disciplined in your bidding.
    Yes, buying in cash is NOW better. New rules now in effect( from FinReg bill, I think) increase the paper trail between you-paypal-eBay, which didn't exist prior.

    Bottom Line: Your best bet is to cultivate a good relationship with a good local dealer. If he knows you are a regular customer you will likely get the narrowest spreads, he'll hold something for you that you are looking for, etc.


  10. what just happened ther?

    The price dropped from the 29.75 area to 29.60 as if by magic then there was abig buy forcing price back to 29.80

  11. Whenever we have a big down day like today, I reset my watch 'n compare chart to 1 or 5 years


    Puts a more cheerful perspective on things.

    Also works in reverse, with a short duration chart making a big up movement look rubbish (-;

    Only for those who cant stand the emotional roller coaster ......


  12. yeah, i was doing that too. Put up a one year chart and today looks like no big thang.


  13. This looks exactly like the 7th of December take down. We rebounded nicely then and it looks like the same now. But this time I was not stopped out, just going to sit through it. It is only noise if you look at the longer perspective. If i was going to sell/buy for every raid there would be several silver coins equivalent in commission to the broker firm, not cheap to buy on NYSE from Scandinavia...

  14. Interesting post on ZH about the other CFTC commissioners getting on board with Chilton's reccos. Speculation that it may have been the cause of today's sell off:


  15. As long as I'm all Chatty Kathy today I want to add my feelings about numismatics. Peter Schiff has something out today that says it better than I could.


    Bottom Line: Don't buy that slabbed St. Gaudens. Buy the one that looks like it was runover in the parking lot. Don't buy that Carson City Morgan. Buy the smooth one that looks like it slid across the bar a thousand times. You want to buy bullion and only bullion, not hopes and dreams.

    OK, now we can all get back to discussing the latest 5 minute silver chart....


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  18. Little update on my comment about eBay's paper trail:


    The middle part has to do with eBay, Paypal, credit cards, etc.


  19. I tend to agree with borte that it resembles the take down after December 7th.

    As TF noted, we had take downs at 8:21, 8:23 and 8:42-44. It came on a Tuesday, which is out of character for the past few months, and one wonders if - like the week of December 7th - we won't see concerted attacks to drive the price down over the next couple of days.

    I have no doubt silver will rebound.

    I note that Scotia Mocatt's latest technical note forcasts "the next major [Silver Price] target remains the 1980 high of $49.50."

    I also note that the US Mint says it sold nearly 1.7 million Silver Bullion coins on Monday, the first day of American Eagle 2011 sales – equal to almost 5% of last year's entire silver coin sales.

    I'm sure that alone caused Blythe's sphincter to snap shut yesterday and moved the powers that be to take action today to quell the price on Tuesday, a day they normally don't take action.

    That's why I wonder if we won't see some concerted action for another day or two?

  20. EE look very desperate today,bad news imminent from somewhere soon.

  21. Looks like less paper trail the better now. eBay was a great place to buy Silver early this year. Not anymore, better for selling. But that may be waning with new IRS rules. Besides, I don't want fiat for my Silver. This metal is not turning back into paper.

  22. I was wondering about those trades under 29 today too. Any ideas?


  23. 2 questions, TF.

    Firstly, there is an obvious double top on the daily chart for Gold. No doubt painted by the EE, but nevertheless, a chart pattern. We cannot just look at what we want to see and not what we don't like to see. So, anyway, do you think the double top indicates a correction that may be deeper and more prolonged than normal for PMs? We're still trading at 29.73 now, not quite far up enough from immediate 29.30-40 support levels.

    Second question is a bit more long term. Assuming that Silver does reach triple digits as all of us hope, where do you see the S&P then? There seems to be 2 schools of thought here, even amongst Silverbugs. Some say 3,000, some say 36,000. The former due to economic collapse/double dip/collapse in housing. The latter due to hyperinflation from QE Infinity. Index companies which fold up are always replaced by "flavour of the day" companies (likely commodity based).

  24. Maybe the EE decided on their raid today 'cause of this :) BTFD!


    The Mint reported an astonishing 1,696,000 silver bullion coins sold on the first day of American Eagle sales on Jan. 3, 2011.

  25. Platinum almost made its whole range back! But now it got the drop again! Poor thing....Turd, can they break this range? They are trying, look at platinum they are beating her up, poor thing.

  26. Stay the course people. Tune out the noise, and BTFD. Silver and gold will reach new highs and have double digit returns by the end of 2011. It is a no brainer.

    Trader Dan Norcini rocks today. He gets it.


    Bay of Pigs

  27. Everyone asking about the out of the money prints on the /SI contract (i.e 29ish) its due to money agreeing on a price outside the current market levels. Price goes to that agreed on level for a second, but quickly comes right back up to the EQ level as there is no actual liquidity at the 29 level besides the single print (or in this case, multiple orders).
    Think of it as a dark pool cross for stocks, where it can be as much out of the money as the 2 parties decide. Hope this helps.

  28. Thanks @Head

    So do these private trades end up triggering any kind of automated trades or stop-loss orders?

    If not, why did it tank about 40 cents as those private/agreed upon trades were occurring?

  29. Seems like we may have stumbled upon one of their tools of manipulation.

    1) Make a small trade at an agreed upon price below the market with a co-conspirator.

    2) Trigger everybody else's sell stops.

    3) Cover your shorts into those stops.

    4) That was easy!

  30. Barb might be right. I'm starting to wonder if this is a bunch of hand-shaking timed to avoid setting off alarms. Drive down the price with a pre-arranged dark-pool-style dealing. Make the trades public and then exchange back and forth every day or two... This timing and size of trading is _way_ too well calibrated to be professional traders or the retail space.

  31. Interesting stuff, although I never understood how any trades can happen on exchanges outside normal bid/ask.

    On to my next question - where's the best place/price to pick up some physical (eagles) you guys know of? Am ready to BUY.

    Waiting on Harvey tonight...

  32. Harvey's post is UP!

    "Usually the first week of January one has to expect volatility in the gold and silver comex and the cartel did not disappoint us with their usual shenanigans. Gold finished the comex session at $1380.00 down$ 42.60 from Monday's close. Silver saw a further percentage decline falling by $1.59 to$ 29.50 at the comex close. For the past week, we have seen an equilibrium between buyers and sellers in gold at around 75,000 contracts. Today the estimated volume at the gold comex was 240,871 and when the confirmed volume comes in I can assure you it will be much higher. The modus operandi of the crooked bankers is simple. They withhold all bids to buy as they tell would be purchasers to hold off as they will get their metal cheaper. Then they bombard with over 100,000 contracts that are totally un-backed and they trip some of the longs who have stop losses below the spot price. This trips other stop losses as the price goes lower until it reaches its nadir and the bankers slowly try to cover all their shorts. This is collusion, as all the bankers are told in advance when the raid is to be expected. Then they supply paper with no backing to gold or silver whatsoever. And our regulators just stand there and do absolutely nothing with this blatant manipulation."

    Go read it now http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

  33. Jackal: With the new all-time closing high yesterday, I just can't see it as a doubletop. Rangebound, maybe, but a double-top, no.
    With regards to the S&P, for now I wouldnt want to be short anything. HellyBennys magic printing press is causing everything denominated to go up...again, for now. I think stocks will continue to climb for a while to come.

    Steve: Good to see Harvey describe the process exactly as The Turd has described it. I feel somewhat vindicated!

  34. Turd, I dissent from your opinion that stocks will continue this steep upward trend. I think that many of the sell side traders are advising their clients that right now isn't the time to make any large bets. Instead I think they're advising to long butteryfly the market in various ways. Its either going to continue a steep upward trend or reverse quick and hard.

    I think today's news about QE2 not being strong enough will drive a dollar weakening and also PM strengthening. What it won't do though, is continue to drive the S&P and dow higher long term. The buy side are resisting every "forced" trade they have right now and the sell side is advising their clients to still drive volume (its where the revenue is for them), but drive it in ways that do not have a strong long bias.

    Thus I think the equities market will turn on a time and totally disconnect from the dollar and the commodities.

  35. Per the 28 trades, they are probably fat finger entries. If I want to sell at 29.80 and type 28.80 instead, it will absolutely execute faster than a speeding bullet while a market maker scoops the shares and resells them a dollar higher in a blink and I'm stuck with it. Now I stopped serious trading nearly a decade ago, but that used to be the way it was.

  36. Appreciate your response, Turd. Was just curious which "camp" you were in. As for me, I have no friggin idea. My own guess (and it is just that) is that equities will dip sharply again, the index will be restructured, and the new index will fly after that.