Friday, January 7, 2011

Putting the BS in the BLS BS Report

My day is ruined...or at least its off to a rough start. For you, my dear reader, I again subjected myself to about 30 minutes of uninterrupted CNBS. Just brutal. "It's the first Friday of the month so, once again, we present 'The Coug from Mesirow' and 'The Keynesian Shill from Moodys'". This is simply amazing. Every freaking month they roll these two morons out and every freaking month their expectations overstate the actual number by 50-100%. Then, when the lousy numbers are actually reported, they back-track, waffle and obfuscate their way through the data. What a joke!

The point is this: In their attempts to sustain the unsustainable Ponzi, the U.S. government so blatantly and completely distorts their "official" statistics that no one...I mean NO ONE...can understand or predict them anymore. As much as I dislike LIESman, The Coug and The Shill, they are trained economists. Y0u would expect them to be able to explain how and why the numbers are what they are. But these people have no clue! Even the former Fed governor they dug up this morning seemed lost. Case in point:
The stated unemployment rate declined from 9.8 to 9.4%. Hooray! But the BLS says that this is because about 500,000 workers came off the "unemployment rolls". OK. But the stated payroll number is only +100,000 or so. Hmmm. How does that work? There's 500,000 less "unemployed" working in only 100,000 new jobs.  Huh??? Not only am I confused but LIESman et al stumbled all over themselves trying to figure it out.

You see, you can't figure it out! That's the whole idea! The "system" is designed to confuse. From the BLS BS to the GDP# to the CPI to the price of gold. All are manipulated in order to create the illusion of U.S. economic strength and prosperity. If the truth were known, even in small amounts, the U.S. would never, ever be able to carry its $14T debt load at an average duration of 5 years and average interest rate of 3.7%. The rate would be multiples higher and if it was, the entire welfare/military state Ponzi would collapse overnight.

Blah, blah, blah...I could go on but why? Its all bullshit. Protect yourself, your family and your friends. Buy gold, silver and land, if possible. The truth can only be hidden temporarily. In the end, facts and truth prevail. Maybe not today or tomorrow but soon. Soon.

Our precious PMs have rebounded from the butt-kicking they received overnight. Let's see if they can hold and close above the major/important support levels of 1365 and 28.50. If we do, no worries.

More later. TF

10:20 UPDATE:
It's 10:20 and we are rolling higher! Let's squeeze those smarty-pant shorts. Let them see how it feels for once. Not to get carried away but...lets start hoping for an outside, upward reversal day...on a Friday, too! We'd need a close above $29.45 in March silver and $1377 in Feb gold. Last is 29.20 and 1373.


  1. And this is very important for our PMs. In case you missed it on ZH:

  2. Ok and Silver is now 28.93 far away from 28.5

    lets cross the fingers!!!

  3. Liesman is not an economist... no, seriously, he is the senior economics correspondent.

  4. Good words today, Turd. The level of Lies and BS on Propaganda Central is truly breath-taking. In the end, when inquisitions begin, the pump monkeys will be sitting right next to their Bankster buddies.

  5. Man, we got a real ugly stick beating overnight. Ouch!

  6. Turd,

    It is really important to recognize just how BLATANTY DISHONEST the government "statistics" (sic) are, as you are showing us.

    I would bet that only a few percent of people really understand WHY the unemployment rate fell, and it is shocking to wrap your head around this.

    The unemployment rate fell because -- drum roll -- A TREMENDOUS NUMBER OF PEOPLE STOPPED LOOKING FOR WORK! In the Orwellian manner our government keeps "statistics", this somehow lowers the workforce, so the rate of unemployment decreases!!

    In fact, today's report is as BAD a report as we could have gotten, if the media only chose to look at the numbers honestly and without spin.

    The economy gained only 103,000 jobs -- FAR LESS than the 250,000 number (some even claimed 400,000) we heard before today as a projection.

    When you see mainstream reports that November's number was "revised upward sharply" -- from 30K to 70K, an increase of barely 40,000 jobs -- you know that the only thing the media and the government is trying to do is kick the can down the road one more month before people realize THE TRUTH. THE TRUTH is that there WILL BE NO RECOVERY.


    The true unemployment figure -- "U-6" -- which IS published by the government but is NEVER reported, is 17%!! That INCLUDES discouraged workers and partially employed workers who want to be fulltime employed.

    Think long term. It is just a matter of time, unfortunately, until the wheels come off. Sometimes I get depressed thinking about what a rise in PM value will do, bc it means our economy is going to go in the toilet.

    This is the fault of our leaders -- of BOTH parties.

  7. Turd, what do you make of the fact that the most blatant and sustained Bear raid since mid-Summer comes at the very time that JP Mordor faces lawsuits and heightened scrutiny?

    I realize the Shorts are between the devil and the deep blue sea, but I'm deeply concerned that this can proceed under those circumstances.

    What defendant would provide the prosecutor ongoing corroborating evidence during what amounts to the Discovery process? Only one who thinks he's gonna skate because the fix is already in.

    If the corruption so evident in the SEC, "Justice" Dept, CFTC and Congress is equal on the Federal bench, this could be their get out of jail free card.

    Hell, CFTC "Judge" Bruce Levine took it upon his sorry ass to make a deal with Wendy Graham 10 years ago to insure that no metal manipulation case would ever see the light of day there. Just who the hell is this treacherous bastard to do that? So it's not too odd that the CFTC's "ongoing" investigation has not gone anywhere in 3 years. At the very time that Jamie and Blythe ramaped up the thievery so much that Helen Keller could see it.

    We are in a global Ponzi where the criminally insane are in charge. They really aren't leaving the People any sort of out, aside from the most unpleasant ones.

    These walking colostomy bags really need to read up on the French Revolution. If they don't chill, it will be THEIR heads that will be bound for those lovely baskets.

  8. we live in a world of liars. it's all that emphasis on PR and manipulating audiences and people. the 80s raised a generation of assholes. excuse the language, but it's true. the ones who rose to the top were in love with the idea of lies as somehow the way to go. look where we are now.

  9. after scanning the above should be obvious to see why the ponzi is let's just play the cards we are dealt...even though they are off the bottom of the deck.....

  10. When you least expect it Gold and Silver will go parabolic,don,t ever loose faith,buy for the long term.When the elites of the world buy they rig the markets,once the time arrives when the plates can,t be kept spinning and start to drop they will be given the nod and PM,s will be unobtainable at any price.Look at the background fundamentals and you see this is the lull before the storm,I myself am not a hugely rich man but I look at my Gold & Silver accumalation and it gives me more security than any Bank,Insurance Company or Government.Most days what we see is for public consumption,look behind the smoke and mirrors,
    1/63% of the worlds annual Silver production in 1 days volume on the comex.
    2/Unbacked Paper is being sold as Physical is not available in any quantity.
    3/5% of 2010 total Silver Eagle sales sold in one day for the 2011 issue.
    4/We use 16% more Silver every year than is mined worldwide.
    5/Silver stockpiles such as Silver $ in US banks gone.
    6/Above ground Silver less than Gold.
    No wonder the EE are desperate to contain the Silver price,the real reason they knock the price down is to try and get physical back into the market to lubricate their supply problem and industrial users costs and therefore inflation.Whatever happens keep your pile handy its going to be needed.Stability is nowhere to be seen in any market,the true unmanipulated price of Silver and Gold cannot be seen as panic would ensue and Confidence (whatever that is anymore) would collapse.

  11. Cris: Great stuff. Thanks.

    ewc: Right on, baby!

    George nails it! But its the Baby Boomers who are the biggest a-holes.

    bottlebob: Spot on. Keep it up!

  12. Is it possible that the EE induces a major raid on PM and just in the second when everybody is short-term bearish on PM and everybody thinks that prices go down, they buy, cover their initial raid shorts plus some more?

    I mean, I was short-term bearish after the beatdown in Asia, and just like phoenix from the ashes, PMs are now rising like hell.


  13. This comment has been removed by the author.

  14. just made another physical order from Gainesville........thankyou BM....youdabest

  15. Here is what I depend on as TRUTH re: silver.

    Silver is unique amongst commodities in that is is both supply and demand ineleastic.

    So what exactly does that term which tortured us in Econ 101 mean??

    It means that:

    1. The demand for silver could go through the roof, but it is very difficult to ramp up supply quickly. The relationship is INELASTIC.

    2. The PRICE of silver could go up exponentially, but it would have very little effect on its demand. The relationship is INELASTIC.

    #2 is the critically important point, and I beleive is the factor which will ultimately END the current silver manipulation charade.

    I had hoped it would be that our regulators would FINALLY restore fairness ond order to the market, but I am becoming more skeptical about that.

    Rather, I think we will soon face what Ted Butler refers to as the "industrial user panic".

    Silver is used in SOOO many applications, it truly boggles the mind. And in almost all of these applications, it represents an ESSENTIAL component, even though it is needed in only a tiny amount.

    Take a computer -- you need a tiny sliver of silver, but you can't do without it. So if that tiny sliver goes up in price 100x, it is STILL an very tiny fraction of the overall price.

    But no company in their right mind is going to let their assembly lines come to a standstill bc they can't obtain a component they require in very small quantities and which represents a tiny fraction of the overall cost of their product.

    Soon, VERY soon, we will see delays in supply to industry of silver, just as we are already seeing a delay to investors. When this occurs, there will develop "panic" hoarding, to ensure continued production.

    And that will drive prices to the heavens, and neither JP Morgan, or the CFTC, or the FED will be able to do ANYTHING about it.

    It is just a matter of time.

  16. DANIEL: Go back and look at the price action on 11/3 when the Fed announced QE2 and I think you'll find your answer.

  17. Well said Turd!

    Gomer Pyle was right all along.


  19. Turd, you are building one heck of a base of smart and switched on commentators. Good on ya. I've been coming here more than ZH for 2 weeks now. I hear Tyler grows jealous of Turd magnetism.

    Looks like the turn around has begun: I'm looking at 1375.75 and 29.22. Well above key supports now.

    So merci beau coup for the lovely buyers dip BM.

    But now we're back to FU.

  20. Freaking hilarious that since Gold and Silver blasted off its lows premarket, CNBS has ZERO coverage on the PMs.

    This after a WHOLE WEEK of non stop talking heads screaming BUBBLE and TOP.

    Damn shills.

    I do however expect more raids next week, with the euro auctions and that pesky CFTC vote as cover.

  21. Timpa: Sorry, but that is just over-the-top whack job stuff.


  22. a fantastic bounce back - building hammers in the chart...

    looks bullish at all now


    These bankers must go down!

    The minion banks are owned by the monster, the Federal Reserve. I have a 1976 congressional document posted to help inform. If you have not seen it, it is the motherload of evidence towards this banking cartel.
    Scott J

  24. From..."the Board"

    These traders have gotten word in the last 48 hours, that Blythe and The Morgue is about to undertake a major raid on GOLD in the hopes that silver will sell off too. Therefore, these traders are advising their colleagues to refrain from buying March silver contracts unless silver breaks $31 again. Their understanding is that Blythe cannot effectivley execute a silver selloff but Blythe and The Morgue can still execute an effective GOLD SELLOFF.

    If and when this GOLD selloff comes, scheduled for this Friday or perhaps next week at the latest, Blythe is hoping that gold will break $1300 and go as far down as $1250. Blythe will be short selling intermitently in the silver pit but her main goal is to cover as many silver contracts as possible.

  25. USDX looks like about a 5.0 on the Richter scale.

  26. Half way around the globe here in India Traders are buying gold. " I sold 45 Kg to a trader between 1367 - 1371 per ounce", said another dealer at a state run gold importing bank.

    That is physical delivery & not paper or ETF positions. American Banks, please keep shorting & driving down the prices. We seem to have insatiable appetite for the yellow metal.

    Have a good weekend.

    Milsy at Mark Tech.

  27. Not only India--here in Germany we keep buying as well

  28. The price of gold in euros is decoupling from a ~~nuetral euro.

    Gold is COMPLETELY decoupling from EUR currency. Investors are flocking to safe metals, check out the live prices for euro gold here:
    This looks strong for US$ price of gold, as it will surely have a ripple effect.

    Big days are around the corner.... one of these days they will be realized
    Scott J

  29. Barb said this is over the top whack job stuff...I hope you're correct Barb as this is the second time you have denied the "possibility" of confiscation...all I can say to those who deny is just look around at what the gov't has done already and the power they have moving forward....hopefully you have invested in bullets as well and have the brass "B's" to use them.

  30. @Scott:

    Not really - when you have a daily look on it, the price is well related to the EURO.

    We have long periods here without a major price change related to the FX. While in USD Gold is jumping up and down... They play the FX-card very well

  31. After initial price drop in gold a silver I realised that things stabilized in Euros. I do not know why we all focus on dollars so much. Looking for 11oo euros for gold and 24 euro silver.

  32. @Rübe : Weils ne Amerikanische Seite ist ;)

  33. isn't about dollars or euros it's about ounces...IMO

  34. Down 60 cents, jumped 80 cents, down 40 cents from high. It's a roller coaster ride baby....soon to be a moonshot.

  35. to follow up with cbottlebob...
    The industrial uses of silver are increasing, along with rapidly growing needs worldwide (the rising middle classes of China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Malaysia, etc.). The unique properties of silver restrict its substitution in most applications. Silver is the best conductor of electricity. Every computer, server, monitor, cell phone and switch must have silver. Lasers, satellites, solar panels, high-tech weaponry and robotics, all require silver. There's silver in every TV, washing machine, wall switch and refrigerator. Conductors, switches, contacts and fuses use silver because it does not corrode or cause overheating and fires. Silver is used heavily in photography and in prints. Batteries are now manufactured with silver alloys. Lead-free silver solder is used heavily for joining materials and producing leak-tight joints. Silver is also widely used in silk-screened circuit paths, membrane switches, electrically heated automobile windows, and adhesives. Silver achieves the most brilliant polish of any metal and has the highest reflectivity of light of all the metals, allowing it to be used in mirrors and in coatings for glass, cellophane or metals. Double layers of silver on glass reflects away 95% of the hot rays of the sun. Silver has a variety of uses in pharmaceuticals as silver kills bacteria. Hospitals use silver coated devices in surgery to eliminate contamination and infection. Skin care products now use colloidal silver as it has been found to be a healing agent and disinfectant. Silver sulfadiazine is the most powerful compound for burn treatment. Catheters impregnated with silver eliminate bacteria. Silver is increasingly being tapped for water purification... silver ions used in pools and spas. To prevent growth of germs and fungus on surfaces silver ions are used in paints and coatings. In the face of all these industrial uses there will be less silver available. More silver is used than can be produced. Industry requires over 900 million ounces each year. Mining and recycling are falling short of providing the necessary silver and it will get more problematic...
    supply shortage + strong demand = rising price

  36. Gee, I think, somebody is painting a big middle finger on the intraday chart!

  37. Daniel: keep crossing those fingers!

  38. Sincerely, I don't care and you shouldn't either. This game is rigged, and we'd be better off not looking at the charts at all, just think of your heart! :) Anyhow, I think this will not be the last time that we see 29.20

    Ah and I am a newbie, but I feel something is different. Usually they raid from time to time, but they take some days off.
    In contrast, the continuous raids this week seem to have a purpose and I would feel much better if I knew that purpose.

    What if they just want to paint a nice picture for everybody to jump on board and then commence "the ultimate raid"?

    BTW: If price now falls sharply, it is a middle finger.

  39. You see it best on the kitco chart, the upper one, the green line. Notice how it perfectly fits the NYMEX trading hours

  40. I think some type of correction is fairly close (days or weeks) in the equity markets. I see a very slim chance that paper/spot PMs won't correct in some correlation (correcting AND beginning another bull run ahead of the GM probably). Hoarding cash right now to take advantage if it happens that way. GLTA jd.

  41. Man the damn dollar is really putting the screws to our PM's. WTF!

  42. Interesting to observe America's collective consciousness growing. I stopped listening to the Bureau of Lies and Statistics (BLS) a couple of years ago. This past week, it's interesting to see how many mainstream news sources aren't buying their BS anymore either.

    Chris, great observations above. This is a good time to review the great essay Ted Butler wrote more than a year ago about how industrial panic will ignite silver prices and lead to a Comex default. Well worth reading, as he shares his perspective on what a Comex default would do to different invesmtment vehicles for silver (e.g., futures, silver certificates, miners, ETFs, etc.) Feels like we're getting closer every day to what he predicted.

  43. Here's the link to the Ted Butler essay:

  44. I've been of the belief that "orderly retreat" (with lots of short covering) was the closest thing the EE had to a viable option out of this mess.

    This is getting disorderly. We can't be far away from $2-$3 up days on weak-dollar news.

  45. Simply put,the purpose of the raids this week is ultimately the survival of fiat as we know it.In the UK,Tesco the UK,s biggest supermarket has started a service for buying Gold.Never forget that once this dam bursts a lot of top people,at the top all over the world and their comfortable,non-accountable lifestyles are going to be history,at the moment they are still in control,just,however as we see daily these people only leave positions when forced to leave.Blythe,Bernanke,Gethner,etc, are all expendable as they will find out in due course.Gold and Silver are the barometer of Financial Confidence which is why they dare not see the true price materialise.

  46. Sell-off this week looks quite similar to the one we had from Jan 25th to Fed 5th 2010 when JPM engineered it to cover as many shorts as possible before the historical CFTC meeting where a whistle blower revealed what JPM did in that Feb 5th raid.

  47. agree this is a very obvious sell off to cover for the volume change in the miners...too for the bottom......then buy the miners for leverage...should be another week....

  48. Whoo boy fellow Turdlings, it has been one hell of an ugly week. Earlier rallies have been beaten down. While anything could still happen today, I'm planning to keep powder dry for next week.

    By the time this raid is over there's gonna be some outstanding bargains in best of breed miner stocks. And not just the Ag and Au crew- - the REE stocks have been pounded too.

    Best REE's to buy at the bottom: Quest Rare Minerals (QRM/QSURD), Tasman Metals (TSM/TASXF), Rare Earth Resources (RES/REE) or Avalon (AVL).

    Want a fantastic REE rocket ride next time China jumps ugly w/ their REEs? Well, whereas the above 3 have already hit launch phase, these 2 youngsters still have training wheels on:

    - Medallion Resources (.56 MDL/MLLOF)
    - Commerce Resources (.87 CCE/CMRZF).

    Both are under a frn and each is highly undervalued in light of what they're sitting on. While both have a decent proportion of HREE, some geol's think CCE's deposits could the bomb. DYODD, but be aware that of dozens of REE pretenders, many insiders think these guys are real. I own 'em both.

    ALSO, there's a growing buzz and rumor the past 2 weeks that Medinah Minerals (MDMN, up.01 or 10% today at .154), along with sister company Cerro Dorado (CDCH, flat today at .20), could be sitting on top of what may be one the LARGEST deposits of God's best goodies in all of Chile. And that's a pretty nice neighborhood.

    Here's the key bit from the front page

    "The caveat warning of the JVA finalization will be the actual receipt of the initial tranche of funding that is slated to be released on or before January 15, 2011."

    I grabbed a position last week at .119 and will add to it next week. There's quite a history with this company and this JV- - evidently it's been in the works forever. Many early investors bailed out waiting, and many have thought MDMN was bogus all along. But many other loyal shareholders hung in there for years, waiting and hoping. Been there myself with others. So for their sake and mine, I sure hope the rumors are true.

    Anyone who finds the Medinah thing interesting should check it out. Watch List MDMN and CDCH and bust a move if it sounds like a play.

    But as always, don't bet the Rancho.

  49. Where in god's name are the BoS? Fuck me!

  50. I think I am going to preemptively go out tonight and celebrate $32 an oz silver.

    I've decided I know it will happen, and I'm going to ignore the charts for the rest of the weekend.

  51. kliguy38 & ewc58:

    I APPRECIATE the input on miners. I am long physical (of course) ..but have this facination with the miners. Hoping I can find the PERFECT time to get in to some more of what I already own and always on the lookout for others. Thanks ewc.... I will be looking to buy next week with my dry powder (hope next week won't be too late).

    ..Any info that is added to TF's blog ongoing re: miners is much appreciated!

  52. I would really love to know what is going on with the BoS and with the KWN guys, if they are not the same species, that would propel gold to +150 these days but instead we are half that down.

  53. Strange..word verification word was ..sello(f)??

  54. Although I've taken the rumors of BOS/Asian influence with a grain of salt, doesn't the Chinese New Year come up soon where they take off several days/week? Might have some big opportunities coming up soon - keep some liquidity is all I'm saying. jd

    title says it all

  56. Chinese New Year starts Feb 3 and lasts for 15 days - 2011 is the year of the Rabbit. jd

  57. Regarding Chinese BOS since their president is about to visit US this month is it likely they are in a cease-fire mode @LME for a while? I don't know, hoho. After all it's not good for them if price rises too fast as they have 2 trillions fiat junk to unload.

    I'm watching the 28.00 price line, if that one is broken down in a confirmed way then I know BOS is gone.

  58. Texas - I suspect you're correct. I will be adding at $26, if it makes it down that far. I am not a chart reader, but a good correction just seems a hell of a lot healthier going forward. I would like to see the "EXPLOSION" take off from a much higher level.

  59. So the BoS are the BygOneS?
    What makes this more strange is that their apparent absence coincided with the coming of the new year.Next week will be..interesting.
    I think these days are the lull before the the upside.

  60. We'll get a pop in gld up to 136-137 and then down to 126-128 range to finish off the drop. Watching the 150 dma. I will be buying back then. Too early to buy here, at least for my bullshit account.

  61. Maybe the BoS are russians, don't they celebrate xmas right now?

  62. Hi, I bought back few miners in the morning on a speculation that dollar would fall massively and got caught with its surprising rally in the afternoon. I still think this rally is just a dead cat bouncing and dollar will fall back soon. Any thought on dollar's performance today and next week?

  63. @Duke hi, the Chinese year of the Metal Rabbit does start on Feb 3, 2011. The Chinese calendar combines 12 animals rotating with their 5 elements so any given year will repeat only every 60 years. Metal Rabbit is considered lucky. I was born July 1956 - Fire Monkey and my husband was born Oct 2, 1981 - Metal Cock (and that's a very apt description of him LOL.) I'm not a big believer in Chinese "astrology," (It's not even really astrology.) The worst superstition in Chinese Astrology is the Fire Horse year - which sees by far and away the highest rate of abortions because of pregnant women's belief that Fire Horses are horrible people.

    A more interesting and accurate divination is the Letter of The Year taken out on December 31st by priests of Ifá in La Habana. Perhaps this is prejudice on my part since I am a priest of Ogún, initiated into Santería 15 years ago. Here is the URL for the 2011 Leter (I realize this is really all off topic, but if we can get a divine edge over Blythe, it isn't totally off topic) The English translation appears on the bottom half of the page.

    @ ?? about buying nickels which are about a 35% premium over face now. WoW this is a great idea. Back in '80 or so, when the news came out that they were making worthless pennies we bought $500 worth and stuck them in the safe. Yesterday, I bought $500 of nickels and plan to get up to $5000 over time. I don't want to do the sorting of pennies (such a burden now that the copper ones are mixed with the base ones!) But as long as I can get a premium over face for nickels, I'm following your lead and thank you for it. Recently I bought $500 face "junk" silver quarters for ~9,000.00 but of course the floor is just $500.00. While I will still be buying silver (we get it here at Hugo Slim Price's Banco Azteca so there is no hassle with soon to be issued 1099s and evil capital gains foisted on USA citizens by the IRS.) While smelting USA coins is indeed illegal in the USA, there's no legal problem with it in México.

    @Everyone: I'm sure you've heard about the shootings of a congresswoman and 12 or so others in Tucson, Arizona. While I would never advocate shooting, hurting, or murdering ANYONE, I do have fun playing around mentally with a short list that includes flying monkeys.

    @Turd: YOU ARE THE MAN! I've learned so much here on your blog which is much more PM concentrated than even your zerohedge posts. Kudos to you.

    ~ The god the atheists don't believe in is not the God I believe in ~

  64. Ash! The Ifá 2011 prediction didn't make it to my immediately above post so I'll break it up and hope this comment will include it.

    May Ogún protect us all and Ochún shower us with money, love, and all the things that make life sweet.