Thursday, January 6, 2011

Random Musings

A couple of items while we watch support holding firm...

First, I found this at Business Insider. Short and sweet:

Next, I thought this was a pretty well-written summation of the bullish case:

With all of the "gold bubble" nonsense being bandied about again, I thought you might want to review this excellent piece written about 10 days ago by Jeff Nielson. Great stuff:

My friend, Big Red, in Virginia found this little item today. You can be assured there is more of this to come:

Lastly, you've seen me discuss at length my concern for rapid food price increases in 2011. I find it interesting that this idea is starting to get some msm play. See the clip below but keep in mind several things as you watch:
1) No one even mentions that the rise in commodities is directly related to the foolhardy, arrogant policies of our government and Federal Reserve.
2) David Goldman is frighteningly uninformed and a first-class douchebag. At about the 3:00 mark, he claims that "some food riots might not be a bad thing, particularly in places like Iran". He also incorrectly points out that "soybeans have had very modest increases". See the chart below. What an idiot.
3) Kudlow is a statist boob. However, like Dennis Miller, he thinks he can fool people into believing he's intelligent by using big terms like "Malthusian" over and over. In case you're wondering, here's some info on Malthusian thought:
OK, here's the link, if you can bear to watch it:

Now, review these monthly charts and ask yourself who is more likely to be proven correct: The Giant Douchebag David Goldman or People's Champion Turd Ferguson?

The battle on The Death Star continues to wage around $29 and $1370. It should be another interesting day. Turd out.

1:15 UPDATE: 
The metals have held really well today in the face of the USDX rally. Through my rose-colored glasses, things look pretty good. Gold has now double-bottomed at 1364. If we can get up now, through 1380 and then 1385, we could really start squeezing those smarty-pant shorts.
Another BLS BS report is due tomorrow morning so I thought it might be fun to review our comments from last month. It'll be interesting to watch just how little things have changed in the past month.
And here's a link to the CNBS coverage from a month ago. Watch this and then ask yourself how in the world we are going to see a BLS BS # of +400M.


  1. I came across this article on confiscation and the last paragraph is what I would direct the readers to. The possibility of silver confiscation...perhaps due to its strategic uses. What do you think guys...lets have some input on this scary possibility...Turd, please speak on this when you get a moment.

  2. Timpa: I saw that earlier. Made a mental note to go back and read it later.

  3. I had to stop reading the Nielson piece when he suggested a 4 day work week as a way to ameliorate the unemployment situation. Last I checked, France tried restricting working hours and it had NO beneficial effect on the economy. Nielson's piece is sophistry, pure and simple. He clearly lacks an understanding of how economies create value, or even a fundamental understanding of basic economics.

  4. I tend not to worry too much about confiscation. I figure if it really comes to that, I would not turn over my holdings, period. Someday, somehow, my heirs would find a way to realize the value of it, which is pretty much the whole point anyway.
    If you kept your gold in 1933, your family had to wait until the 1970's to bring the stuff out of the closet. In the grand scheme of things, that's not that long.

  5. Dollar going berzerk ahead of a $6-8B POMO. Welcome to Bernankenomics.

  6. I may have posted this before, in which case pls. excuse the repeat, but the following talk by Prof. Al Bartlett of the Univ. of Colorado offers a uniquely succinct and far-ranging exploration on the issues surrounding 'Malthusian' -- using elementary-school level math. While the YouTube video's title is a bit of a stretch, I was hooked after the first 5 minutes. Exponential growth is NOT a sustainable model for any society - local or global - and yet TPTB are quick to misdirect away from that very basic tenet and claim to aim for it 4ever.

  7. The EE is attempting to mentally torture the longs. It may work to knock out a few souls with weak constitution, but most will withstand this test and emerge stronger.

  8. If we hold support anywhere north of 28.00 then I'm fine with it. 27.50 or less is where I tend to pull into the coin shop for a few more rounds.

  9. Jamie: I could be wrong but I thought Jeff meant a 4-day work week for all government/public employees, not the private sector.

  10. dd: The March USDX is about to hit some pretty stiff resistance between 81.10-20. Let's see what happens there.

  11. Blythe sees the cards stacked in her favor for a while as repeated crises in the Eurozone drive investors out of the Euro and into the dollar. Also, the Republican takeover in the House provides at least some temporary credibility that the U.S. government will attempt to gain control of its fiscal mess.

    But don't worry, my friend Ben will put these Republicans in their place by crashing the stock market at the first mention of fiscal restraint that limits continued bank bailouts. Moderate Republicans will show their true colors and will wilt like pansies in heat, joining Democrats in the printing and spending dance which they do so very well. The Republican party will be in complete disarray by 2012 and Democrats will remain in control of the levers of the U.S. government.

    Investors in physical should be thrilled. Circumstances far beyond the control of you peons have created an extended opportunity for you to buy gold and silver at discount prices. Buy it and take possession.

    Blythe skimmed the article on silver confiscation, but does not buy it. This is precisely whey you Yanks have your Second Amendment, and your government knows full well that forcibly confiscating silver means pounding down the doors of millions of well-armed citizens. And furthermore, there is still plenty of silver in the ground for industrial purposes.

    Blythe can absolutely foresee a situation in which the amount of silver available to investors is strictly limited, which is all the more reason to buy now. Blythe received her email from Apmex that the amount of silver available for 2011 will be limited. This is a harbinger.

    Break is over for Blythe. I'm off to push some buttons and take more of Turd's money!



  12. Haha congrats.

    Turd you have your first official troll.

    But she does have a point tho lol.

  13. I wouldn't worry too much about confiscation of our silver coin collections but I could see the govt. nationalizing the mines when things get ugly. There's plenty of precedence for that kind of thing around the world...

  14. Nah, "Blythe" has been around for weeks. I think "she" adds color to the conversations.

  15. USDX rolling over right at resisitance and, my, what a nice little bounce in everything commodity related.

  16. If we can get rolling through $29.40, the brand-new, smart-pant shorts are going to start getting real nervous.

  17. Turd, what point do you think this volatility will settle down some?

    Blythe can only keep this up so long, eventually the price will shoot straight up and we wont have so much up/down/up/down, don't you think?

    I'm just getting seasick and hoping that this game stops.

  18. "68", that is exactly why I have no interest in the "electronic ownership" of the miners. The Powerz will absolutely crush those guys and then "nationalize" them at pennies on the dollar. I have always said, at the appropriate time, GS will make a fortune "shorting" its own stock into oblivion - at that point they will take it private again (blaming the short sellers)and pick up natural resource companies for nothing.

    Having said that, my best wishes for anyone that can successfully trade in this environment. jd.

  19. Volatility is a natural part of where we are in the silver market. I expect it to get worse, not better...if the price shoots up, some people will let their metal go and the price will drop. The roller coaster has a way to go.

  20. TF,
    Newer at all of this than most of you. What do you think about the miners? I'm with CMILL on the getting sea sick part. I honestly believe though that the miners have huge upside potential provided that you do your research and know who you are buying. Do you still agree, Turd, that we need to hold positions in these miners? Afterall, I'm assuming the fundamentals haven't changed there either.

    As for the nationalization of the miners.. yeah.. that could happen.. but isn't that why you deversify in owning shares in many nations mines? ...Sort of delutes the downside if you spread your shares around. What are the chances that Mexico, Canada, US, etc will ALL nationalize their mines??

    Of course.. goes without saying.. physical is king. ..But I think miners are another good way to go. Someone please set me straight if I am wrong ..because I am down a few thousand since Monday because stupid me bought one company on a high Monday. Ugh.

  21. Right: I wrote this about 6 weeks ago and still firmly believe in these stocks. I've been meaning to update it but never seem to get the time. I promise I will soon.

  22. If gold holds up here she will have put in a double bottom at 1364.

  23. I'm with Blythe as to the Bernank crashing the stock market if the repugnicrats try to push back too hard against the inevitable raising of the debt limit, or Dr. Paul gets too uppity.

    BTFD. People's elbows to the banksters eyes! It's only a matter of time.

  24. Hi Everyone. Just a reminder the Jobs report is tomorrow and markets move on liquidity flows.

    If the UE number is "good" meaning the rate drops a decent amount then possibly temperamental fund mangers may dump PM's for the USDX causing a drop in the price...

    If the UE number is the same or higher me thinks PM's will rise. 3-2-1 Mission Control we have lift off.

    Blythe and the monkeys make excellent PM rocket fuel..

    Either way we win by BTFD or PM's powered by Blythe...

  25. There are rumors that the NFPayrolls will be good like hell : around +400

    Mark Twain - where are you ??

  26. This comment has been removed by the author.

  27. Marvin: Go back and read the addition I just made to this thread.

  28. More on the alleged 400M+ BLSBS #

  29. Jack is correct about volatility being a characteristic of where we are in the secular bull run.

    Cmill, most only see this getting worse as more trading money flows into the PM markets this year. Unlike us, traders will be in and out of the metals and stocks, adding gasoline to the fire. You must come to terms with this reality, then decide if you can live with it.

    So much depends on whether you bet the ranch (don't!), your expectations and your time frame.
    I always tell my newcomer friends and family to ignore the daily price action and stick to simply accumulating what we know will be much higher over time. Fundamentals grow in our favor by the day. The pimps of paper are just about done setting up the fate of the dollar. Once it is no longer the global reserve currency, your FRN's will realize their true intrinsic value. Want to guess where PMs will be then?

    So during weeks like this, the most important thing is that you get to buy at a discount.
    As long as you're not in a rush, stick to the program, and stay informed by good folks like the Turd. The rest is sound and fury, signifying nuttin'. We'll be on the up again very soon.

    In the meantime, buy the dip.

  30. RIP Howard Katz

  31. All in all, I'm pretty stoked about how things are going. It seems like no matter what gets thrown at us, we're staying around $29 and $1370.

    Considering that it was not even a year ago when we started buying and we bought at $17.49 and $1140... I'm content. My only regret is that we were hesitant to throw our available FRNs in the ring all at once.

  32. CFTC To Vote On 10% Position Limit Next Week.

    I posted the following on ZH minutes ago....

    "I wouldn't get toooooo excited the big positions will migrate offshore!!!!"