The Battle Rages

In the streets of Cairo, now in Jordan, too. Also in the PM pits.

We've reached a pivotal point for the Evil Empire and their manufactured correction. The fundamentals behind the PMs have never changed so all that the EE could manage was sentiment and charts. Both are turning.

In the sentiment category, the precious metals are, and will always be, a safe haven and a store of wealth. The shroud of security and calm that has blanketed the world during this "recovery" is being torn. Through the shreds, you can plainly see the swirling, unstable storm of events that is looming on the horizon. As the dominoes fall, it is impossible for any "analyst" to predict how things will play out.

On the charts, the recovery from "Turd's Bottom" is looking more clear and more strong with each passing hour. Take a look at this 15-minute silver chart. I chose 15 minutes as a timeframe because it shows all of the action since trading re-opened Sunday evening.

Clearly, after several attempts to break down through 28 have failed, the 28 level has now become solid support. All that's left is a break UP through 28.50 and we can put this correction "in the books". I have a last of $28.23.

In gold, the situation for Blythe is even more tenuous. Because of her blatant attempts to jam price as far down as possible last week, she has inadvertently painted the chart with an almost perfect reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. As mentioned yesterday, a move now back UP through 1347-50 and the bottom will be so clear that all of the brainless, heartless algos will have to sit up and take notice. Take a look for yourself:

I know that some of you have trouble reading charts, so I took the liberty to make this one even more clear. Perhaps looking at it from another perspective will help:

Lastly, I must mention copper. After trading as high as 451.45, it has pulled back a couple of points. However, I still have a last of 449.90. The last time copper traded this high was on 1/3/11 when it reached a high of 449.80. On that day, gold closed at 1425 and silver finished at 31.12. Hmmm. I'll let you draw your own conclusions about that.

As I finish, I see that Blythe is trying another desperate attack. Gold is now 1327.60 and silver is 27.95. What a joke. She is merely compressing a spring at this point and doesn't seem to realize that the longer she holds it back, the stronger the rebound will be, but she's committed now...past the point of no return. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. In all my years of dealing with women, I've learned that logic and reason often get tossed out the window as soon as emotion gets involved. ;)

The volatility continues. Keep smiling and watching. TF


11:40 EST UPDATE:
The volatility in the PMs continues to be impressive. Do not let your heart be troubled, however, as this is a natural, bottom-building process. It is all good.
I felt I must update on the dollar because we are about to reach a very critical juncture. First, look at the continued breakdown:

Now. look at it from a longer-term perspective. Note the very important low of 11/3/10. That's where we're headed. It's a low that corresponds with the announcement of QE2. If/when we break that level...well, it ain't good for the ole greenback.

If/when 76 fails, we're headed to 74 and when that goes the ultimate low of 72 will be in sight. If 72 were to fail, bend over and kiss your ass and all that you've ever known goodbye as we will have entered into a world where all bets are off...the proverbial "beyond here there be dragons".

This dollar weakness is, of course. pushing all things dollar-denominated higher. Stocks, industrial metals, grains...all moving higher. The CRB is confirming yesterday's range breakout as it stands at 341.53, constrained only by weakness in crude and the PMs.
Copper is soaring, however, and I have a last of 453.30. The intraday high of 1/3/11 was 449.70 so any close above there is extremely bullish and, eventually, that strength will spill over into the PM pits and create an avalanche of buying that Blythe won't be able to contain.
Much more later...TF

NOON EST UPDATE:
Here we go! Gold 1343. Silver 28.57. Watch this last 25 minutes very closely!