Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The Battle Rages

In the streets of Cairo, now in Jordan, too. Also in the PM pits.

We've reached a pivotal point for the Evil Empire and their manufactured correction. The fundamentals behind the PMs have never changed so all that the EE could manage was sentiment and charts. Both are turning.

In the sentiment category, the precious metals are, and will always be, a safe haven and a store of wealth. The shroud of security and calm that has blanketed the world during this "recovery" is being torn. Through the shreds, you can plainly see the swirling, unstable storm of events that is looming on the horizon. As the dominoes fall, it is impossible for any "analyst" to predict how things will play out.

On the charts, the recovery from "Turd's Bottom" is looking more clear and more strong with each passing hour. Take a look at this 15-minute silver chart. I chose 15 minutes as a timeframe because it shows all of the action since trading re-opened Sunday evening.
Clearly, after several attempts to break down through 28 have failed, the 28 level has now become solid support. All that's left is a break UP through 28.50 and we can put this correction "in the books". I have a last of $28.23.

In gold, the situation for Blythe is even more tenuous. Because of her blatant attempts to jam price as far down as possible last week, she has inadvertently painted the chart with an almost perfect reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. As mentioned yesterday, a move now back UP through 1347-50 and the bottom will be so clear that all of the brainless, heartless algos will have to sit up and take notice. Take a look for yourself:
I know that some of you have trouble reading charts, so I took the liberty to make this one even more clear. Perhaps looking at it from another perspective will help:

Lastly, I must mention copper. After trading as high as 451.45, it has pulled back a couple of points. However, I still have a last of 449.90. The last time copper traded this high was on 1/3/11 when it reached a high of 449.80. On that day, gold closed at 1425 and silver finished at 31.12. Hmmm. I'll let you draw your own conclusions about that.

As I finish, I see that Blythe is trying another desperate attack. Gold is now 1327.60 and silver is 27.95. What a joke. She is merely compressing a spring at this point and doesn't seem to realize that the longer she holds it back, the stronger the rebound will be, but she's committed now...past the point of no return. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. In all my years of dealing with women, I've learned that logic and reason often get tossed out the window as soon as emotion gets involved. ;)

The volatility continues. Keep smiling and watching. TF

The volatility in the PMs continues to be impressive. Do not let your heart be troubled, however, as this is a natural, bottom-building process. It is all good.
I felt I must update on the dollar because we are about to reach a very critical juncture. First, look at the continued breakdown:
Now. look at it from a longer-term perspective. Note the very important low of 11/3/10. That's where we're headed. It's a low that corresponds with the announcement of QE2. If/when we break that level...well, it ain't good for the ole greenback.
If/when 76 fails, we're headed to 74 and when that goes the ultimate low of 72 will be in sight. If 72 were to fail, bend over and kiss your ass and all that you've ever known goodbye as we will have entered into a world where all bets are off...the proverbial "beyond here there be dragons".
This dollar weakness is, of course. pushing all things dollar-denominated higher. Stocks, industrial metals, grains...all moving higher. The CRB is confirming yesterday's range breakout as it stands at 341.53, constrained only by weakness in crude and the PMs.
Copper is soaring, however, and I have a last of 453.30. The intraday high of 1/3/11 was 449.70 so any close above there is extremely bullish and, eventually, that strength will spill over into the PM pits and create an avalanche of buying that Blythe won't be able to contain.
Much more later...TF

Here we go! Gold 1343. Silver 28.57. Watch this last 25 minutes very closely!


  1. Funny how often right as you create a new post she starts her attack. Are you Blythe?? :P

    Her pet Copper is still doing great. Isn't that interesting.

  2. Hit me again Blythe. I wanna buy....

  3. And of course the criminals at the CFTC count on their future favours from the cartel and guarantees from government they wont be prosecuted for corruption.

  4. Alright Turd,

    Rotating that inverse H&S and drawing a face on it is classic. I laughed out loud here at work and had to ALT-TAB over to a spreadsheet in the event someone peeked over the wall to see what was so funny.

    Good stuff - keep it coming.


  5. Turd, I think sometimes Blythe uses these morning raids like an NBA coach uses timeouts -- just to break momentum.

    We were headed to $29 today without her intervention. May still be.

  6. Suppose for a minute that all this stuff about hedge funds buying silver starting on Feb 8 is true. Wouldn't these guys want to frontrun each other? One smart guy will buy on the 7th, the smarter one by Friday, the 4th? Seems to me IF you really buy this scenario, you'd better be getting in right about now.....

    I don't necessarily believe it, but I just feel like buying today anyway.

  7. I'm really wondering what they are trying to accomplish at this stage.. Is it just that they want to keep the range in tight control or do they want to hammer it down as much as possible?
    I can't imagine they wouldn't be able to push it down as much as they want to.. They have unlimited resources right?
    It's pretty spikey at the moment...

  8. Wow that was a beautiful recovery in silver. Not to fear, Blythe is reloading...

  9. Ya gotta give the ponzi credit.....they know how ta fight...hehhehehe.....watta great game....hehehhe

  10. Eric, that's an excellent point.
    CO_Dan: Right on. That's exactly how they're used. Its why you so often see attacks pre and post Comex.
    Hang-10: I must admit that I cracked myself up with that one.

  11. By the way, notice how $28 held again.
    Back up to 28.12...

  12. Funny how when I was in school last year, I was always told my professors that Arbitrage doesn't exist in the real market.

    Well obviously they weren't looking to hard because a 15$ move down in gold 1.5 hours in these conditions has to be seen as arbitrage....

    Think of this all as another way the FED is trying to give back money to its loyal users...

    Buy physical before the arbitrage disappears!


    Scott J

  13. @Eric: I've wondered the same thing, only with a wrinkle. If Blythe believes the Wynter story, wouldn't SHE want to be front-running it?

    Cover while prices are in the $28's. She would run the risk of prices getting out of hand by late-February, but she could always intervene with more selling in the upper $30's to keep the lid on.

  14. If anyone is keeping track of this stuff...
    I closed out my March soybean calls this morning at a tidy, little profit. I'm looking to move back into wheat on a pullback to 8.25.
    I also added to my March $30 silver calls. I'm a little apprehensive about this as March is the front month and they expire in about 3 and a half weeks. However, if I'm right...and if Benton is right...I stand to make a little bit of dough.

  15. Just saw a post by DaddyO on ZH. For the record, that's not me. I am considering changing my handle and will advise accordingly.

  16. This song is for Blythe as she shorts the market! Drop it low girl!


  17. Regarding this Wynter Benton stuff, I've been giving it a lot of thought and I can come up with 2 scenarios, but don't know which is the correct one:

    1) Wynter Benton is genuine, and she's giving us all this warning because she wants us to buy up all the physical silver that is out there, so that the big short seller out there will have nothing to deliver come March and Comex will be forced to pay her group the 20% premium because it can't deliver.

    2) Wynter Benton is not genuine, and she wants all us little fish to buy up paper silver by Feb 8, at which time there will be massive short attack and we will be forced to take our losses, selling the low, and allowing the short seller to cover at the bottom before March.

    Which one is it???

  18. @Jimmy: No money to be made off us little fish, so I'm not too concerned about scenario #2. If anything, I could see Wynter being a Blythe double-agent trying to sucker over-leveraged SHK types into buying at $40/oz, only to pull the plug in March before they can take delivery.

    That may be far-fetched, though. Wynter definitely doesn't seem to be a pot-stirring nobody, though, does she?

  19. Spot is weak today (no surprise), but the shares are holding strong.

    During this correction, the shares have ALWAYS been leading lower, but since last Thursday this has changed.

    I would say given that action, that the lows have indeed been put in.

  20. wtf?

    silver has shot down 50 cents, back up 50 cents, down again, back up again... in the last 10 min we've had about $4 worth of moves

    what is this, freaking cedar point?

  21. Copper is screaming higher at 453.60!

  22. Eric, I considered the same possibility. It reminds me of when people were front running the Fed during POMO (may still be doing it). Anyway, when ZH started talking about it, people started front running by buying SPX. Then people started front running the front runners, and soon one had to get in the day before POMO and wait for a run up the following day. The difference here is that nobody has identified a pattern with the silver contracts, yet. If it becomes a pattern then we'll probably see the front running start to occur.

  23. Eric, like TF said, Blythe might be covering now (before Feb 8)so that she doesn't have to deliver. No matter what scenario, best play might be to buy silver now and watch carefully on Feb 8 to see if there really is a big move up or a smackdown...

  24. Blythe has the dollar working against her... The harder it plunges the harder she has to work to suppress gold and silver.

  25. Just placed my order for 100 buffalo silver rounds at Gainesville...shipping is delayed till the 11th and they are out of several of their bullion selections.....hehehhe...still have a kilo from yesterday on the way....keep this game alive Blythe...

  26. Looks like silver found its nuts.

  27. I just updated this note with some very important $ info. Please read.

  28. Sorry for acting like a troll here but what if Blythe is doing the ultimate trade..selling paper silver and buying the real stuff straight from the source...so she is selling the paper as the good stuff roles in her vault. Who knows, she might think papersilver is only worth the paper...well, just a thought, no pun intended!

  29. Sailor: She would only be serving to make things worse. Buy "buying up the real stuff" she would be worsening the physical shortage and making the end of her game that much more painful.

    BTW, today's FUBM in silver is now complete. If we can get rolling in this last 90 minutes and blast through 28.50, it's on!

  30. Just saw this on Twitter:


    3 minutes ago from Cairo,Egypt
    RT @Port_Sa3eedy: Unverified: #Bahrainairport to be notified of #Mubarak arrival.#Egypt #Tahrir #Jan25 #1M #Feb1

  31. I wonder how many tons of gold MuBarak is going to take with him.

  32. Well.... if *John Kerry* says so... I guess Barak had better do it...


    7 minutes ago from Cairo, Egypt

    RT @AboulEinein: U.S senator John Kerry has called on #Mubarak to step down! #Egypt #Jan25 [according to Al Jazeera)

  33. Tales From the Front:

    Stopped by my #1 favorite coin shop today. He's been pretty much cleaned out for weeks, but today he had probably 250 oz sitting there in his case, mostly 10's. I got the impression it was mostly from a single walk-in seller. Looks like somebody cracked under the pressure.

    I picked out a nice 10 oz'er and brought it home. Maybe put it under my pillow tonight. Dreaming of Blythe....

    I'll check back there in a couple days. I bet he sells all that stuff pretty fast.

  34. Kerry is a cabal soldier....this is all contrived....I'm just not bright enough to know if they are in total control....my guess is ...they are...but I just am not sure of their end game... The other answer is this has blind sided an arrogant cabal and they are scrambling.....that is very bullish for gold and silver.....either way its a big fochin mess.

  35. Question: When Blythe sells short, she really only has to put out sell orders at whatever number she likes to swallow up the buyers right?

    I mean, she could seek out buyers at $5.00/ounce, and swallow all the long positions who buy the manufactured paper silver that she will never get in the physical world, to drop the spot to around $5.00/ounce.

    What stops her from doing this? First, would she be capable of pulling the price to $5.00 tomorrow if she put her mind to it? Second, if she were capable, what would be the side effect of such a thing? Is the only side effect to this a loss of credibility of the COMEX and an exhaustion of physical supply? Or something else?

  36. USDX just hit 77.04. Live here (sorry it's CNBS):


  37. TF,

    Do you trade futures contracts only for copper?

    Do you have an opinion on the the ETFs JJC and COPX?

    With the Morgue and people like Stephen Leeb and Kiyosaki ultra bullish on copper I'm starting to get interested in this trade, but know absolutely zero about the copper market

  38. Is anyone looking at SLW and ANV monsters trying to break out......ooooooooboy

  39. I'm a long term buy and holder on physical, but my concern here short term is that the EE has really held down gold and silver in the face of tremendous dollar weakness. They are well positioned to cream the PM's on any dollar rebound.

  40. I took a look at four sets of spot prices to see if there is any timing difference in their posting. APMEX, Gainsville, goldprice.org and Kitco. Gainesville spot amount changes the most frequently, even faster than goldprice.org on one minute timer. Kitco and APMEX seem to update every minute or so.

    The interesting thing was the difference in the spot amounts. They were different, but not from timing. They retain about the same spread on their way up and down. Gainesville seems to average about a dollar more than APMEX and two dollars more than Kitco and goldprice.org which are close. It is hard to see as it changes so fast and moves up and down. I used a single browser opened four times on a single screen with an auto refresh add-on set at five seconds.

    Anyone else notice this or can confirm it from their observations?

  41. kliguy38--
    Yeah, I wanted to buy more SLW this morning too, but instead had to go out and do something that had to do with real life. Missed it. Should have put in a limit order before I left the house, but forgot.

    Of course, that's when I stopped at the coin shop on the way home, so it wasn't a total waste.

  42. Pat: Ignore any correlations with the dollar, they're all out the window at this point. We've actually seen days recently where the dollar is up along with PMs. Too much volatility for consistent correlations... Turd's copper correlation seems to be working fairly well though, for some reason.

  43. Wow, SGTBull07 has done some excellent work recently but I think this latest vid is dead on and pretty inspirational too:


    Don't forget what the stakes are: either the banksters are going into bankruptcy, or all of us are.

    Note the one Egyptian man who shouts "...whatever your religion, you must now demand your rights!".

    To those with ears to hear, truth comes from all corners. Here's more:

    Buying silver and gold is the most effective way we possess way to insure that it's the banksters who wind up out on the streets.

  44. @ Pat-

    Yes, this has me worried too. Falling dollar (though as flaunt point out, this hasn't been a big deal of late), but add that to rising commodities and rising oil, yet it still has not translated for our PM's. So if world events ease and everything pulls back the EE may have an opportunity for a brutal smackdown. Don't get me wrong, my physical isn't going anywhere and my "Vegas money" is in AGQ so I'm betting on Turd's bottom holding (now there's a sentence I never thought I'd type), I am just anxious about how things are shaping up. A break and hold above 28.50 would sure be nice.

  45. Wed peak and thurs take down into fri's NFP?

    Also how soon before a yen intervention.

  46. Someone just gave silver a heroin injection... blew through 28.5

  47. Turd, you are once again correct!!! silver crossed 28.50

  48. $28.64!

    And my SLW is up 4.77%. My RPM.V is up over 11% today alone!

    Well it's about time ~ my portfolio was down about 24% a week or so ago from Jan 3rd, so this is nice to see catch-up.

  49. Silver is flirting with its 50DMA... Would be lovely to get a close over that level.

  50. Kliguy,

    If I may, I've found by investing in primo exploration companies I can easily double and triple my investments within 6 months. This is easy to do with stocks you buy below 75 cents per share. I buy PM, REE, and Uranium players.

    Once I hit a 100% return, I generally sell half the position. That keeps my original position intact while giving me an equal amount of House Money to reinvest elsewhere.

    I most often use the gains to plow back into:
    a. physical gold and silver
    b. primo "core holding" miners like SLW, GG, ABX, FNNVF, etc

    3 of my favorite explorers are each doing well today- - Pelangio, Golden Predator, and Rye Patch. Tarsis Resources and PMI Gold are 2 others I own. I expect all of these to kill in 2011. Timberline Resources too.

    As you like mids, you should really check out Tahoe Resources. but right now you can buy AG, SVM, MVG, AUMN and other fine mid s and near mids well off their 52 week highs.

    All I can say is that by harvesting explorer gains, I've come to own much more PM in the past 24 months than I'd have been able to afford without it.

    And isn't owning more PM the goal in Turd Town?
    Use it if you think it can help your own situation.

  51. pick: copper certainly looks to be headed higher.I'm not currently in anything copper-related. Just using it as a tool to forecast the PMs.

  52. Turd: Whats goind on in the US ? The Dollar is collapsing against all currencies...

    Is the EU-Crisis played within US now ?

  53. Turd
    Keep up the great work mate.
    Just a thought: if inflation continues to accelerate stocks will keep going up. But PM stocks should do even better. Nice moves today in SIL and SLW

    Trader Dan will be liking today's price action on the HUI !

  54. Curious to see if the Monkeys will smash the Globex after this nice run.

    There is the NFP coming up this week...

  55. No real bounce for the USDX off of 77.00 yet. Ominous.

  56. Is there an advantage to owning foreign precious metal stocks to U.S, or are they all pretty much in the same boat/risk-reward level?

  57. When Mubarak leaves w/o further incident, a moderate leader is installed by the military w/ a promise for elections "soon", and the crowds disperse - will we see gold/silver hammered on the 'good' news?

  58. Tim,

    Yes! As long as you buy on a foreign exchange, say Toronto's TSX for example...you get the added benefit of a boost in share price PLUS the appreciation of the Canadian dollar as the USD falls. You buy on the TSX in Canadian dollars

    Hope this helps

  59. EWC.... I am in several uranium plays ....UEC URZ USU URG URA......all will double this year....long term holds......also cores in miners HL EGO SSRI GFI EZK PGZ SLW ANV and a few others....loaded now..25% cash in case they can turn it...

  60. Don't forget Rare Metals: AVL.TO

  61. Nice positioning kli...

    Be aware of Uranium explorers Strathmore and Hathor.

    reefman, I like REE's too. I like Avalon, but these are my faves:

    -Quest Rare Minerals
    -Tasman Metals
    -Commerce Resources
    -Great Western Minerals
    -Lynas Corp