Monday, February 7, 2011

Crossing One Million

First of all, I want to thank all of you for participating in this blog because I think we've built something truly unique here. I try to provide some insight every now and then and you provide a deep resource of information in the comments.

Apparently, we are onto a winning formula because today we passed the 1,000,000 total pageview mark. To put this in proper perspective, this milestone fell on only our 87th day of existence. Now, I have no idea whether or not this is amazing but I know I'm amazed. Going forward, if our total page rate continues to accelerate, we will almost certainly have to build our own site together. I'll keep you posted. With input from all of you, we could build something pretty cool. If we could just keep out the AGAs...

Onto the news of the day. There are two, main stories worth following tonight. First, Harvey is all over the backwardation issue in silver. This really is a big deal and it shows that something is up from a physical standpoint...we just don't know what that "something" is...yet:
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

Patrick Heller chimes in:
http://news.coinupdate.com/silver-poised-to-outperform-gold-0670/

And this is interesting, too, though its a little wordy:
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/silver_short_020720115

Then, Eric King posted this:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/7_KWN_Source_-_Expect_Massive_Chinese_Gold_Buying_Using_GLD.html

Which caused Trader Dan to write this:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/concerning-china-and-gold-etf.html

And finally, I received my email copy of the latest Sprott letter. To get it directly, you simply need to go to their site and sign up. However, to save time:
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=254842&q=282242978&qz=d42a72

That's it for today. Again, we are at a critical time point for our PMs. They need to continue to grind higher this week and not allow Blythe and her monkeys to beat them back.
Keep the faith. Turd out.

82 comments:

  1. Let me the first to congratulate you...oh look, so I am!.... ;-)

    Seriously, you are a great resource, an entertaining read, and a great support to nervous investors (like myself). Turd On!

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  2. it seems like i have checked this page about a million times myself.
    i think your turnstile is jammed tf.
    or the bls is providing the data.

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  3. Congratulations!!!
    I know I check in daily - You explain things in a way I can understand. Thank you so much!!

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  4. Right now the two year $ price matters, nothing else. I told you, Turd, to watch the 2yr. Anything below $1350 is cheap flow and should be bought for trade. Anything below $1300 and you should find every physical ounce in your domain and buy all of it, all of it you f+cking morons...all of it! Traders are one breed and investors are another, but when physical separates from paper, time is compressed and they become one.
    I Fester

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  5. You deserve it, Turd. A million views in under three months is impressive.

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  6. Thanks a million Turd, and keep up the great work!

    Not sure if it's been posted here, but see this interview with Bart Chilton, dated Feb 3:
    http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/silver_CFTC_020320118

    He makes this comment about silver:

    HAI: I heard something about silver, that there's a large firm – maybe not an individual – an entity that's controlling a large position in silver. Is that potentially a problem?

    Bart Chilton: There was one trader who earlier this year had 35% of the silver market. It's a big problem. That's too big. Even the people who don't like position limits, when I tell them about that 35% in silver, they sort of wince at that. So that's a problem. It's not there now. It's less. But that's why we need these position limits. Everybody should know the rules of the road. And again, if we put them in place, we'll have more efficient and effective markets.

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  7. I Fester,
    what are you talking about?

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  8. Your site is on my list of places to visit each day.

    The 24 Hour Silver/Gold prices are really cool.
    Before discovering your site, I had to call my coin dealer everyday for a spot quote.

    He started getting annoyed and one time told me to do a Yahoo search for silver quotes. Well, I did and found some nasty web pages. I found one offering free quotes and I downloaded some program and paid for free-trial of Desktop Cleaner Extreme. It was extreme, it switched my computer desktop picture from a photo of my grandson on a tricycle to a picture of a naked young lady with bottle of wine jammed in her cooter. My wife looked over my shoulder later and said I was a pervert. I do not recommend Desktop Cleaner Extreme, as it does not improve the performance of my computer.

    Thanks Turd! Keep up the good work!

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  9. Turd, congrats on the milestone.

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  10. LOL 2006... That is both highly disturbing and amusing at the same time!

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  11. Impala-

    If you want to drive yourself crazy watching the spot price change from second to second, this is a neat site:

    http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm

    It can actually be a little addictive, when the action is fast and furious...I find myself trying to will the price higher or lower as the red and blue flashes up.

    And as far as I can tell, it's wine bottle free.

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  12. Congrats on the milestone! Maybe you and some of the others who you frequently link to should get together and create a single website for all of your blogs. Kind of a one-stop destination for readers to get all their metal info from since many of us already read the blogs you link to. Kind of like this site and its community blogs...

    Pinnacle

    Just found that site over the weekend and I really like the layout and the user-friendliness of it. Just an idea since the Turd is moving on up in the world!

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  13. Been debating if I should save for a 1000 oz bar of the shiny stuff. Clocking in at that weight it's going to be a pain to handle. Anyone have much experience buying or selling 1000oz bars? I've never seen a 1000 oz at any retail dealer today. This means it'd be even harder when silver goes up in value over say $100 an ounce.

    Stick to the boring 100oz bars and wait weeks/months for delivery or get a real treat thats ten times the size and have it immediately delivered? Anyone got an opinion on the 1000 oz?

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  14. Awesome site. I have been here at least once a day since I found it. Many thanks for the lucid explanations. I feel much better informed, and confirmed.

    Kiwi - that link to the spot price is amazing - addictive is right!

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  15. B - my opinion is 1000oz is very heavy - but go for immediate delivery. You could always trade it in later for smaller bars.

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  16. B, I wouldn't do it. 100oz bars are heavy and cumbersome enough. Imagine lugging a bar 10X that weight. It doesn't get you anything that smaller bars wouldn't - it's all .999 silver, and it's all sold by weight.

    Beyond this, if we have hyperinflation and silver prices soar to the moon, there's going to be value to divisibility (i.e., smaller silver weights). I'd rather have 1000 ounces in 1oz and 5oz bars than 1 single monstrous 1000oz bar any day.

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  17. Turd, congratulations on the 1 million page view milestone! Looks like I guessed right the other day. ;-)

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  18. TF - Many thanks for the outstanding blog.
    I just hope I don't start seeing HSBC ads in your google ad space.

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  19. And, I might add... Gold just crossed 1350 again.

    To Blythe: There is no FUBM hard today, just a slow gradual rise.

    To the Monkeys in the Morgue: Quit sucking up to the Masters. Get a brain, get a real salary that pays you without making you jump through more point values to get your month-end bonus. I mean, how many bananas can you guys really peel? If you peel one end, Blythe likes it. If you peel it the other way, you can actually make money. Do you really think Blythe will be good on delivering metal? She's too busy trying to figure on how to get that gold stored in Singapore for Jamie. You ain't on the list.

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  20. Silverleaf, Another major drawback of the 1000 size is that if its 1000 or more oz, then the IRS requires reporting of it. Thats basically a big no-no for me, so it'd have to be 950-999oz to make me happy. I think you're right though about the portability/flexibility to trade factor.

    If only I had a friend who could melt such a block down and make blanks....

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. TF, thanks for everything. While I visit other sites, this is the site I visit most often during the day. To those that post here, thank you, b/c your willingness to share to those that are recent converts is much appreciated.

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  23. Silverleaf-

    Has anyone noticed that there's a gush of tax payer money leaking out of the US Treasury market?

    Hello? Anyone?

    The 10 year US Treasury Yield 50 DMA have moved hard up and through the 200 DMA. Then, I looked at the 2 year and even the 1 year. Yes, that would be correct, the 1 year yield shows the same cross over but in the last week.

    If I understand these markets correctly, the banks are having to sell long positions and convert to shorter and shorter term as the QE2 progresses and POMO sucks more wind.

    I guess what these charts really say is that the Obama Administration and Tim Geithner are more interested in shoving more Tax Money in the pocket of the Fed Reserve than helping to preserve our national stability.

    The Fed Reserve is buying those long bonds at higher and higher interest rates.

    It's sort of like Gordon Brown telling the world that he's selling gold, and then wondering why in the world he's getting the worst price.

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  24. Well it's Feb 8. Let's see if this Wynter Benton character is the real thing

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  25. Turdle,

    I hear ya. I am not going to hold my breath - but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big move up in silver from now until March 1.

    Contango is out the window now... and that alone should push the price up, up, up.

    Then again, if Wynter was for real would she be telling us every move? Who knows, but I hope she's for real.

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  26. Turdle GG,
    I hope the Wynter Benton thing doesn't occur. I know the real value of silver and I want to buy as much as I can as fast as I can. If the WB thing is real, this will effectively be a big speed bump in the rate at which I accumulate. We can't have speed bumps on my race track... I don't mind a crashed helicopter in the middle of the raceway and fiat currencies flying in the wind... but speed bumps are a big no-no.

    Give me more time to buy. I need 6 more months of heavy accumulation.

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  27. B,

    The ONE thing that no human can control is TIME: Given enough hours, the sun WILL RISE TOMORROW. No banker, no government official, no market, no manipulation can stop TIME. And THAT is the *ultimate* FREE-MARKET force.

    TIME WILL TELL.

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  28. 2006 Impala Driver,

    Go here for the best live HOT silver action:
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

    Go to "Instruments" and select "Silver". You can even detach the chart by clicking on the 'push-pin'.

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  29. From Wynter Benton:

    "If you have been paying attention you would know that our group starts buying after Feb 8. The big hedge funds we talk to want to buy when the price is over $31. They would rather buy at $31 then at $24 because they (as well as we) would interpret the price above $31 as indicative of tight supply while a price of $24 as indicative of abundant supply.

    They would gladly pay $40 if this indicate how tight the supply is rather than a lower price if this indicates the Morgue somehow was less afraid of a raid. This is a scheme to force a premium from the Comex and the buy in price is really irrelevant if we can be assured that the Comex doesnt have physical to deliver.

    The key to this is to see how many Mar contracts are standing for delivery as Mar 1 approaches. The bulk of the buying will occur near the end but the process starts on Feb 8.


    The only way this will fail is if Comex and The Morgue can deliver physical silver. Period. The buy-in price is irrelevant. But if they cant deliver the physical, then their only defense is to hike the price."

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=384772&mid=384901

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  30. 1,000,000 in 87 days. Very nice. This site has been an excellent suppository... I mean repository of knowledge.

    Turd bottoms are better than bread helmets!
    keep up the good work.

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  31. "The big hedge funds we talk to want to buy when the price is over $31. They would rather buy at $31 then at $24 because they (as well as we) would interpret the price above $31 as indicative of tight supply while a price of $24 as indicative of abundant supply."

    This part smells rotten to me...So let me get this right. Numerous other anecdotal indications of supply constraints in the market, silver in backwardation, etc. don't indicate tight supply? And these brilliant hedge funds only believe that a price north of $31 indicates tight supply, while $24 indicates abundant supply?

    Sorry, I'm not buying it. I think the whole Wynter Benton thing is BS.

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  32. I am not a nervous investor but an angry investor, because I am fully aware that there is a monstrous crime in progress. I take great comfort in visiting this site because of the like minded true hard core "Gold and Silver Bugs" that grace this blog.

    There are no deluded or confused wishy- washy fence sitters here who refuse to take a definitive stand with respect to the crime or the criminals. While there is very little we can do about this, other than to protect ourselves with knowledge and action. Action which may allow us to even profit from this crime. We can face this beast, at least, knowing we are not alone. This is why in such a short time I have come to love this blog and its creator. Thank you Mr. Turd Ferguson and all who post here with your wonderful information and insight. I am deeply indebted for the reasons cited above.
    I am not a day trader or options and futures trader. I put all of my savings into gold and silver starting in late 2001 to 2006, where and when the highest I paid for silver was $10.10 Gold
    $320 After which I focused upon other things in preparation for what is happening today. I had no doubt whatsoever then that I was doing the right thing. Not 5% nor 10% nor even 15% percent which most pundits advised, but 100% of my portfolio was invested in gold, silver, and mining stocks.

    The trend is your friend seemed like a solid foundation for investing strategy and I have stuck with that ever since. What I hope, perhaps, to learn here is how to, maybe, trade futures and options. We will see as I am in no hurry because my correct decision long ago was correct and extremely profitable. I hope all of you the same good fortune. So, don't run off like "The Great Turd" and waste your hard earnings in "Lost Wages", just take his good advice here, and you will be fine.

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  33. @reefman-
    WOW!
    netdania was a great site!
    Incredible!
    for those who might have missed the post:
    http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

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  34. what if 18 to 31 is the first half of a mighty measured move?

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  35. Personally I don't take Wynter Benton too seriously. However I believe that more and more parties are going to stand for delivery - whether there is a 'big bang' in March is another question.

    I put it in much the same place as Santa's prediction of $1650 Gold by Jan '11 ... ultimately it didn't occur but it did help people remain focussed on the long term during the inevitable reactions.

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  36. Seems like everyone is buying ahead of the return of Chinese demand post holiday.

    Won't be surprised if we sell off from Wed into Fri.

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  37. Silverleaf, I (respectfully) take a different view.

    All over the web (King World News, Sprott, jsmineset) I hear how tight supply is in gold and (especially) silver). I hear about backwardation (BTW on my screen the silver curve is basically flat).

    But I don't see:
    1. parties standing for delivery in size. The comex inventory seems to be declining more or less linearly.
    2. SLV, GLD (or their Australian equivalents ETPMAG and GOLD) being 'raided' (i.e. parties buying the securities and then demanding physical redemption as allowed for under the terms of these products.
    3. Significantly higher prices (although they are firming).

    So while channel checks are worthwhile (i.e. calling your friendly dealer to confirm he is sold out) at some point the rubber must hit the road and prices rise.

    Another point (not related to your post) ... the idea is that there is one representative 'hedge fund' is completely ludicrous. Many hedge funds are 'trend following' in nature ... i.e. they will go long any market (PMs, softs, energy etc) as prices rise. They don't buy dips they buy rallies.

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  38. I am thankful for you Turd and your insight. I am also thankful for BM and their paper crimes. Let me explain as I am late to this party and at first didn't understand (not that I do now :) ) the dynamics at work in the PM market. It has given me time to learn and invest... If the market was unrestrained I wouldn't have had the chance I have to make $. Just thought I would share that.

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  39. Way to go Turd ! An auspicious beginning to a wonderful site !

    I visit many sites during the day while I am trading and checking the news, but this one is the one that really feels like home.

    p.s. - around 2:30 eastern time silver took off like a bat out of hell, shot right up to 29.73 so far...

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  40. Congrats Turd,

    During the dark times of the past month, you helped us remain resolved, and on course. I visit 3 times a day minimum.

    "xtybacq"

    1000oz is god awfully heavy. Realistically you need a small trolley to move it around. I had a similar bar down here in Sydney at the dealer, and despite it having the tightest premium, the PITA factor was too much. I would even say the 15kg bars (roughly similar to your 500 bar is too heavy. Nearly ripped by camelbak apart each time (it's holding together still!)

    I personally prefer a 5kg(roughly 160oz) bar fr an ability to move it around easily, stack, etc. IF you are having it delivered somewhere, and you personally won't have to move it, then feel free to buy giant bricks.

    Silverleaf said:
    "I'd rather have 1000 ounces in 1oz and 5oz bars than 1 single monstrous 1000oz bar any day"

    Totally agree. If I could pick a form at a static premium, I'd be happy with Perth Mint coins. Very attractive. I personally was looking for a mix of efficiency and granularity s I can get close to a buy price of a real estate in metal, once this thing moves higher. So I got a sequence of bars at 15,5,1kg. I'm yet to buy coins.


    Very strong action right now. Very happy.

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  41. those using netdania, use the chart station:
    http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/ChartStation.aspx

    you can have more than one view of markets up. I typically have silver and gold spot in an overlay in one window with the EUR/USD in another pegging off the 1 minute update mark. Doing this, you can clearly see the disconnect between currencies and PM's.

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  42. "I am not a nervous investor but an angry investor, because I am fully aware that there is a monstrous crime in progress."

    Perhaps interested in a non US view. We (my group) fels the same, but we're more at the mercy of the big nations throwing their weight around. Despite a seemingly string economy I'm aware of how violently Australian markets will negatively react on news of -another- country having problems. So, rest assured, even though I can't blame my politicians for any of this (they have other things for sure) we're equally screwed.

    I'm personally not angry. It was depressing at first, but I have come to find peace. Peace in the shiny heavy metals, and the independence this gives, makes me strong, confident and able to bend like a reed in the wind when the Storm hit.

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  43. oh, and Turd. It's not page views that matter.. it's unique visits. That is, a view that comes in from a new IP address. If blogspot is reporting how many times I refresh your page because I may be a Turd junkie, then that's counted as a view. Not particularly helpful if you're trying to track your viewer-ship size as it's skewed with F5's.

    If, however, it IS tracking unique IP's, then my hats off to you and congratulations, sir.

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  44. I'm not surprised at all that your site reached an impressive milestone so soon! Way to go!

    It's obvious more and more people are aware of what seems to be going on.
    I'm checking your watchtower multiple times a day just to be sure I don't miss anything.

    I started buying physical 2 cents from the last bottom. Both your outstanding TA skills and your 'passion' (the fight for justice) have proven to be a true killer-combo! So many thanks for sharing this with us.

    Silver once again made a sharp move up while we were sleeping.. I don't buy that Wynter stuff, it's too obvious in a way. Wouldn't be surprised if we see another sharp correction instead.

    Already 12% up since the last bottom.. Patiently waiting to buy more.
    You can almost feel the tension.. Today and tomorrow will be a VERY interesting for silver.

    All the best!

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  45. The price spike pretty much coincides with an update from the mysterious Wynter Benton.... Personally I take her with a barrow load of salt - however the price action is so far is backing her up....

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  46. China has raised benchmark interest rates by 25 bps

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  47. Next milestone,one milion oz total donations!

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  48. Will be telling to see how PMs perform the rest of this week in the face of rates hikes and hot inflation numbers from the EMs.

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  49. Turd.. the people go to your site because you are contributing something of real value to many of us. Valid explanations every day.

    Most impressive.!!

    Thanks so much.

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  50. Huffington Post sold! $315m...tell 'em Turd, you are not for sale.

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  51. Re: the 1000oz bar question

    I too would rather have smaller bars and coins. If silver goes where we think it's going, then even a 10 oz bar will be bigger than you want if you just want to sell some for grocery money. Me, I'm heavy on 1's, 5's, and 90% coin.

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  52. Well, this sucks...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-raises-benchmark-deposit-lending-rate-025-bps-january-inflation-hits-6

    Just when we were really rolling, too. All part of the fun of being a PM investor/trader.

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  53. Rate hikes are just part of the process, part of the battle to be fought in a PM bull market. There will be more. Perhaps someday, in some weird parallel universe, The Bernank might even raise rates here. But as long as rate hikes are behind the curve relative to inflation, then real rates remain negative, and the PM Bull roars on.

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  54. UGRev, who cares if the hits are IP or unique? Anytime somebody voluntarily makes a conscious decision to seek the opinion of another for curiosity or information sake, it is a positive result to the provider. Hip Hip hooray to the "Turd"...

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  55. Silver just erupted! 29.40 to 29.80 in seconds! FUBM!

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  56. Jesus... Well I can't vouch for WHO is buying but someone wanted in around 3am and someone REALLY wants in at 830.

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  57. Same for gold... Nice to see her perk her little ass up a bit.

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  58. Latest from Wynter Benton:

    "The Group is operating in the Theater 8-Feb-11 03:24 am
    Update to come later"

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=385782&mid=385782

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  59. FUBM in Indian commodity exchange MCX too.

    I am wondering if someone can explain, how these Banksters managing FUBM or FUTF at the same time in Shanghai, HK, Mumbai, Frankfurt, Paris, London, NY ? To do this they must have all the regulators in their pocket. Is't it? Plus all the infrastructure to make the markets.

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  60. Aahh, the volatility! Something is boiling...

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  61. Its funny how market action makes commentary. Literally one month ago, the China rate hike was blamed for the $40 dollar down day in gold.

    Fast forward to today. China hikes rates again, and gold is up.

    I'm sure the chimps on CNBC are scratching their collective heads/asses on this one.

    BoS were defintiely present during the blast up. I saw multiple, multiple lots of 100+ on the bid side.

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  62. $30 today? We need to see a chart Turd, where's our support and resistance at right now? This chart just looks ridiculous right now.

    Kitco


    That is a huge spike up.

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  63. @nikejason2000 because, well, putting it in simple terms, page views don't mean shit. I could sit here and hit refresh 100 times a day.. and I bet I come in at between 25-50 refreshes not including hits from posts (which also is a page hit). It's just NOT a measure of viewer-ship at all. I think the "why" is pretty obvious. The more accurate measure is how many unique IP's and even more so, how many of those IP's are repeat visits.

    If you want to talk marketing terms, advertisers won't even look at you (other than funny) if you said you had 1mil page views in 87 days. They want WIDE audiences, so the more unique IP's that hit the site the wider the audience and the more likely they are to want to work with you to advertise. How do I know this? I've worked with 2 multi-million dollar money makers in this area of the internet. Their first site sold for 7+ million back in 2000 (purchased by ZDNet) and their new site is still rockin' and rollin' as one of the best software geek sites on the net. These guys took me to school on this subject more than once.. page views means "nuffin'"

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  64. Latest from Wynter:

    Message to our operatives from The Leader

    "Morituri te
    Salutamas ese"



    Good luck gentlemen!!

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?bn=10073&tid=385782&mid=385799

    We who are about to die salute you

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  65. new post

    It was The Leader who took silver up in the middle of the night only to allow Blythe to think that she trapped us with that China interest rate hike.

    It was our group who leaked the China interest rate hike story before it was even announced. Blythe fell for the trap and shorted like crazy.

    Now witness the destruction of Blythe and The Morgue itself.

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  66. Seems things are going as Wynter Benton says SO FAR:

    -soft commodities down on China rate hike
    -crude lower on the same
    -copper ""

    But silver and gold both +1% and back around session highs despite the news...

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  67. That $0.50 spike happened at almost exactly 8:25 a.m. EST.

    Anybody who's been with Turd for awhile knows THAT is creepy.

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  68. silver stocks opening quite nicely!

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  69. Yes, Dan, that is an interesting coincidence.
    Running behind a bit this am. New post soon.

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  70. Since the EE/TPTB broadcast their criminal acts on a daily basis (anything goes and is never prosecuted) it would be amazing theater if this plays out like Wynter says... epic

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  71. I'll say it again; I have seen so many internet rumors die on the vine, this will truly be amazing if events continue to unfold as predicted.
    Amazing times.

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  72. ok, but why does the China rate hike have to be bad for PMs? ... might it not be that the Chinese people will notice that their government is acknowledging inflation, and rush out to protect their wealth by buying PMs, just like we are?

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  73. Snick - if the rate hike succeeds in stopping or slowing inflation then there is less demand for PMs as an inflation hedge.

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  74. I know the rationale behind rate hikes and how they negatively should correlate to declining PM's prices but if one looks back at the 1970's it was the rate hikes that propelled gold up. What am I missing?

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  75. Cause - rampant inflation in the 1970's
    Effect - gold rallies as an inflation hedge

    Rate hikes were used to fight inflation. Rate hikes did not cause the spike in gold.

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  76. There's $30! Yee-haw! Ride 'em, Turd!

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  77. It's offical we just touched $30.00 at 10:07 eastern

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  78. As long as rate hikes are viewed too little too late against inflation, then PM's will continue higher. Real interest rates (short term rates minus inflation) are still negative, whether you are talking USA or China.

    They'll need to ramp rates up high enough and fast enough to get positive real rates, like Volker did in 1980-81, to kill gold. But if they do that we get a Depression with a capital D. USA won't be able to afford the interest on the debt and we default, so gold goes up anyway. The issue of sovereign default was not on the table in 1980 like it is now. This time, they are trapped.

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  79. Congrats, Turd!

    I was thinking - as you mention oil price quite frequently, maybe you could post that chart along with COPPER and USDX?

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