OK, so here's where we stand. I don't have much time now to elaborate beyond that which I've written on the charts. Sorry. Perhaps I can get into a little more complete analysis next week. For now, lets start with a 15-year look at the HUI (the Amex "gold bugs" index):
Now, onto Turd's Big 5. Presented, in order, by my current preference according to the chart:
Now, here are two more that I've picked up on from reading the comments on this blog. They both look terrific. You guys are good!!
First up is GRS. Mister Hyde loves this one and I don't blame him. Looks like a cinch to trade to 10+.
And here's Great Panther. I'd be all over this one if it pulls back to $2.40 or so.
OK, that's it for now. I'll have a comprehensive look at the weekly charts for you tomorrow.
Have a great Friday evening. Thanks again for making this blog THE BEST PM BLOG around!! TF
10:30 am EST Saturday UPDATE:
Just wanted to inform you that I have scheduled some time next week to meet with a website developer I have used in the past. I think we have reached "critical mass" where its logical to take this next step.
Over the next week, please take some time to consider what options you'd like to see in a new and improved "Turd's World". I will be soliciting opinions and all feedback will be considered. I am not looking for feedback today, however. This has become a great thread for the exchange of info on miners and I don't want to hijack it. Please use it for that stated purpose all weekend.
Next weekend, I'll post an open thread where I'd love for you to relay your ideas. I think I've already come up with some stuff that you'll really enjoy but I'm not stupid enough to think I've got all the answers. Additionally, depending upon the bid my web man gives me to build this thing, I may have to solicit funds through the "feed the turd" button to help defray some of the costs. Not much...if I just got about a buck from everyone who plays around here on a daily basis, that would be more than enough.
Lastly, Harvey has labeled his Saturday commentary as "important" which means you definitely have to take the time to read it. Here's your link: http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
Have a great weekend! TF
Don't the options expire Feb 18th?
ReplyDeleteI am here precisely because it is the BEST Blog anywhere bar none. Thank you Senor Turd !!
ReplyDeleteSilver Futures Options actually expire the 'fourth business day prior to the underlying futures delivery month' according to CME rules. This means that there is basically a week and a bit before they expire worthless.
ReplyDeleteI think Reader B is referring to 'The Theory of Maximum Pain' which states that 'the underlying stock or index will tend to move towards the price where the greatest numbers of options contracts (in dollar value) will expire worthless.'
Jayhawk -- as far as I know. Not sure what all this talk is about options expiration today.
ReplyDeleteD - But we're nowhere near futures options expiration and stock options don't expire until next friday...
ReplyDeleteEh, if GRS goes from 8.40 to 10.20,
ReplyDeletethat would be slightly over +21 %.
Still nice, but no +33.33 % by far.
HAHAHAHAHA!
ReplyDeleteShit. I'm so freakin tired that I missed that. What a fucking idiot I am sometimes!
Equity options always expire on the third Friday of the month.
I am removing that email right now.
Jeez...time for beer...
flaunt: guess maybe that's Reader B's point... if BM can hold the price down below maybe 30 for another week (anyone know which March strike holds the most OI?) then perhaps she can keep the call premiums (if she's been writing them)? On the run-up to $29.50 I know the 30+ strike calls were speculative but cheap also had higher volumes so that could possibly yield a lot of 'suckers'
ReplyDeleteYou're right, Walter. Just another example of Extreme Turd Fatigue Syndrome, also known as ETFs.
ReplyDeleteThe difference in price is a gain of $1.80 not $2.80. Duhhh. Turd needs a beer.
The Theory of Maximum Pain seems amusingly appropriate here. Playing options is a good way to fulfill ones masochistic tendencies.
ReplyDeleteNew bears Part 4 at SGS:
ReplyDeletehttp://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/
I think when I bought my call options back in Dec, the 30 strike calls had the most volume. They're set to expire Feb. 22 if I'm not mistaken.
ReplyDeletehttp://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-and-gold-manipulation.html
ReplyDeleteI'll put together the entire fundamental story for TRE if I have any energy this weekend.
ReplyDeleteTurd,
ReplyDeleteI'm crackin' a cold Sam Adams right now - in your honor, of course
Technically, equity options expire the 3rd Saturday...but who's counting? SLV calls expire Feb 18th (a Friday) according to Yahoo Finance and TD Ameritrade.
ReplyDeletePat
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to that!
Nice price action on it today
SGS, if you're out there, I just listened to the Bears, Part 4.
ReplyDeleteMany of us listened to a conference call on global settlements and revaluations a couple of weeks ago and shrugged it off as a scam (sorry, can't find the link right off).
You're saying this huge global settlements, end-the-Fed scenario is the real deal?
The bears Part 4......
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h66R4U-Eybs
Does the Brown Bear have the voice of the British putz on our favourite business channel?
ReplyDeleteCO_Dan, here's the link to that Iraqi RV conference call. I thought the same thing. The bears and their "insider info" sounded just like that call.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.freeconferencing.com/playback.html?cn=94-43-28-63&e=2243221200000&cid=conferences/-17-65-6759-17-65-67-17-65-67-17-65-67126-17-65-67-17-65-6783-17-65-6753122121-17-65-67-17-65-670.mp3
I've followed SGS and never liked his gratuitous use of crude language and I'm no prude. Just seemed unprofessional if you're trying to instill confidence in one's message. Now I fear those gut feelings are being confirmed as I feel his videos are more of a regurgitation of rumors taken to their extremes in the hopes of creating a shock-value following. Maybe he's just over-anxious but it feels like a hard sell and I ain't buyin'.
my .02 oz FWIW
Late trade at the crimex but I like it!
ReplyDeleteBid|Ask 30.18 30.20
Low|High 29.683 30.285
Change 0.13 0.43%
Feb 11, 2011 17:17:48 EST
http://www.goldseek.com/
...............................
Kitco shows last trade 17:14 est!!
http://www.kitco.com/market/
..................................
Traded right before the NYC mercantile close! Like to see the vol on that if any ones got it!?
Latest COT shows that EE has added net shorts of 6000+ contracts. This month is gonna get intense.
ReplyDeleteJust want to toss my $.02 into the hat regarding miner's picks. As background I did a lot with juniors back 10-15+ years ago. Some winners, some losers ( it was a tough time to be a gold bug), but became disenchanted and went with physical, plus oil& gas stocks for a long while ( did quite nicely too thank you very much).
ReplyDeleteAnyway, dipped my toe into the water again recently, nothing huge, but here's my list.
SLW ( more here than the rest of the list combined)
GDXJ
HL
PAAS
CDE
ASGMF
GPL
UXG
AG
It's definitely heavy on silver vs gold, but I think that's where the action is.
thanks for the link to the bears video.
ReplyDelete"A new derivatives company has issued a limited JP Masters doll, the only accessories options are a kitchen sink, most likely because they are throwing everything, but the kitchen sink at Silver today"
lol. scary looking doll however.
I don't know about the global reset talk. I mean, it's just conjecture based on one conference call. I'm with ya Chris - it's a good story but at this point in time, it's just another story added to the list of stories.
Eric-
ReplyDeleteLooks good. Mine are-
SLW (heaviest)
AG
SVM
AGQ
HL
NG
Smaller ammounts of
AXU, RBY, MGN, EXK, XRA
Jayhawk
ReplyDeleteMight form the basis for a good weekend thread. I'll just say it now for everybody:
Assume I own it
Do your own due diligence
Protect yourself at all times
There. Now that we have that out of the way, I wanna see some more picks!
Bears video was interesting. It is very useful to read the objective criticism here.
ReplyDeleteI would add that as "conspiratorial" as it seems, it brings together some loose threads.
I also thinks it becomes confusing because its internal timeline is inconsistent. One minute a guarantee of $75 within 18 months, the next a discussion of possible silver confiscation. Those two events, were they to occur, would HAVE to be separated by a large amount of time.
Miners:
SLW (consensus building here)
HL -- ?2nd most popular?
PAAS -- like IBM or GE used to be; have to have some
USAGX - great fund
SVM
TRE
GPL.. all three bc of this board
CDE
SSRI.... haven't seen these two mentioned
OK maybe i'm just a confused noob but Comex Silver Future Options for March 11 expire 4 days prior to March 1 which gives Feb 23.. no?
ReplyDeleteSo then looking at the Comex report for March option calls the strike with the greatest OI is $35 at 3,875... those will likely expire by Feb 23 without any effort from BM... but the next highest OI is $30 with 2,403 contracts.
I think Blythe could keep it down below $30 by Feb 23, couldn't she? Isn't this what Reader B was talking about? (wish his email was still in the post)
further reading...
Comex OI report for Feb 10:
http://www.cmegroup.com/daily_bulletin/Section64_Metals_Option_Products_2011028.pdf
What happened with Silver options max pain last month:
http://agaupm.com/max-pain-for-options-trading-on-feb-2011-gold-futures/
Truly Excellent interview with Eric Sprott over at ZH right now:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-interview-eric-sprott
I hesitate to recommend ZH to anyone anymore but Eric Sprott is Eric Sprott and is a must read under any circumstances. For the record, and FWIW, I agree with every stinkin' thing he said.
Am I the only one that thinks this whole Wynter stuff is a complete scam?
ReplyDeleteAlso, notice how the HUI tags the 252 MA during intermediate cycle lows. (This usually lines up perfectly with the POG hitting the 144 MA which is already did) I'm wondering if we get there or not? The miners certainly ran out of steam this week, but the 10 DMA seemed to hold most the past 2 days. I'm 100% invested, but now wondering what to do. Hmmm...
http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/d24c8c0c-3449-4d74-943f-5ecba1bbeed9
Cris
ReplyDeleteThought about SSRI. SSRI and PAAS go back to my previous go-round with miners, both run by top notch folks, but just now I liked the PAAS chart a tad better that's all. Got enough duplication in my account as it is.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMy spreadsheets
ReplyDeleteSilver:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Ajym06WyPAdmdEdZM2RwRlZvNW40N1lsTm1CS1Fianc&authkey=COqL6cUF&hl=en#gid=0
SLW:
https://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?authkey=CPKEt7wG&hl=en&key=tiimJ0SC28DbAqhDY0KpcAw&hl=en&authkey=CPKEt7wG#gid=0
Jayhawk
ReplyDeleteI pretty much scroll past all the Wynter stuff. Just continue to hope TF keeps some distance.
Great Sprott interview.
ReplyDeleteHe's right about the way forward also; someone just has to grow a set and regulate the banks.
Just that they have always dealth fairly viciously w pols who tried to do that in the past.
Silver will NEVER be confiscated IMHO
Just think of the logistics; impossible to implement. I can hear it now, "We demand that you bring your 60 lbs of silver..."
Never say never though. OK highly unlikely.
Egypt 2.0: IRAN
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704329104576137813613162704.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Protests planned for Monday.
I'm seeing a lot of buzz about Algeria too.
ReplyDeleteSilver will not be confiscated.....too much industrial use.....but there are many ways to restrict your right of sale.....taxes etc.
ReplyDeleteWynter is a complete fraud.
And long term silvers is headed up.....
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/SLWid1376833/SLW-Silver-Wheaton-management-to-meet-with-RBC-Capital
ReplyDeleteNot sure what this means.
Sometimes it means a buyout is in the wind (that's good)
Sometimes it means they are going to raise money (that's bad, short term)
Sometimes it means nothing at all.
Thanks for the miners review Turd... more please!
ReplyDeleteSLV is a great pick just now (really hit hard in January... ouch!... and a great buy right now). Speaking of Sprott, my miner play is in his Precious Mineral Fund (up >100% in 16 months)... a good mix of Juniors and some of the big boys... I'd rather leave it to Eric Sprott to manage the mix (I also hold his Silver Fund... running at a 15% premium over NAV and growing).
Turd... I worry about a USD collapse and the impact on the miners should it happen. I just can't seem to come up with a model I'm comfortable with... any thoughts on the subject would be appreciated.
Another Miner, in this case Gold:
ReplyDeleteAurizon Mines (AZK)
Producer (principally their Casa Berardi mine)
In Canada (politically safe)
Just cleared last of their hedges (now unhedged)
Solid Balance Sheet
Terrific reserves and excellent development prospects in the pipeline
Will be mining significantly higher grade of ore this year compared to last
Future rare earth potential
AG will reward you greatly.
ReplyDeleteI have quite a few picks on my site if any are interested.
www.arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com
Just search for silver or gold miners and those posts will pop up. I am also long uranium miners, they are immuned to Blythe as there is no paper market for uranium. I have doubles and triples in all of them so far.
Not sure how the issue of confiscation came up but yeah I think outright confiscation of gold or silver is unlikely, but they can do a lot of other things to you. Gov't price controls so you can only sell to "authorized" dealers at the "authorized" price. 100% capital gains tax. On and on.
ReplyDeleteThis is one area where maybe mining stocks would seem to have some advantage. Thoughts?
Doug
ReplyDeleteI appreciate the idea of Aurizon. I remember that one from years ago. Only problem was even back then it was all about the potential of Casa Berardi. Doesn't seem to have really advanced any in the 10-15 years I've been away. All sizzle and no steak the whole time. Hope I'm wrong but I decided to pass.
Prohibitions and price controls only further raise demand and black-market prices. It's a non-issue to me in terms of value safety. In terms of the '33 precedent, the US dollar was redeemable for gold at the time so the US did have an arguable claim for gold in lieu of dollar payment. Plus, Fort Knox didn't exist and the amount of gold held privately was far more than exists today. There would be more to lose and less to gain in today's fiat world. It's a very crowded fiat trade. Coin collections aren't going to save the dollar and they know that.
ReplyDeleteAnything like that today would be a 'jump the shark' move.
In NY 10 gal. reg. gas = 1 Silver Eagle, That's all I have to say.....
ReplyDeleteInteresting and valuable to see what others hold here. Thanks guys! A consensus building:
ReplyDeleteCurrently I have:
all on the TSE
SLW - largest holding, leveraged proxy for silver, safe to go in heavy I think
AXR - a pure silver play
NGD - some gold, the warrents are leveraged nicely
GPW - looks like a strong player and stock is low in price
CZN - a penny silver stock with a fascinating story (involving the Hunts) and the video of the flight into its mine is worth the price of admission alone. http://www.canadianzinc.com/ - under image gallery
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteLooked like a wild day in the market. Good thing I don't have a trading account to blow up.
I spent the morning installing an in-wall safe that I found at the resale shop. I paid $49 for it.
The prior owner affixed a sticker to the door, doesn't look so bad, but wonder why anyone would want a safe to read: "FEAR THIS!" ...Fear what? Busting it open may reveal a hornet's nest?
I found a good spot behind the master bedroom door for the safe. I punched a hole and cut a rectangle out with a handsaw. It's an exterior wall, and I could feel a strong draft of cold air flow in.
I put the safe into the hole and secured it to wall studs. I realized the hole was 8 inches taller than the safe. That's what I get for hitting the sauce before 10AM.
I don't know how to repair dry wall, but did a good job destroying it. I took a sweater that I've never seen my wife wear and stuffed it in the hole. It stopped some of the cold air, but reckon it'll be cold sleeping tonight.
The safe works great! I put my two Silver Maples in, just need to figure out how the lock works.
Mission accomplished, I hit the sofa just in time for The Price Is Right.
Any of you guys been watching the Gold Rush Alaska show on Discovery Channel Friday nights? Awesome show. Just be thankful that you can still go online and click, click, click you own some gold. These guys have poured everything they've got into this venture in Alaska and so far they have diddly squat. They are about $275,000 in the hole so far and time is running out before freeze up. Goes to show you that if gold mining was easy, everybody would do it, and gold would be priced like copper. Gold mining has always been hard. Whether you are talking modern day, or ancient Egyptians it's always been a pain in the ass.
ReplyDeleteNew episode is on at 10:00 Eastern, a little less than an hour from now as I type. I think they are about to start hitting some gold. They better pretty soon because there are only 2 episodes left this season.
Enjoy!
impala
ReplyDeleteYou are the guy with the wife that just sat in the car and wouldn't come in to the coin shop right? Oh Yeah, I'll say you got some "cold sleeping tonight", LOL!
Impala Driver,
ReplyDeleteYou crack me up. Your life sounds like so much fun and I love your stories. LOL. Drywall is not that difficult to repair. My husband just repaired a hole in our wall in the hallway due to a temper tantrum thrust upon us by our out of control 12 year old and her foot. He took her to Home Depot, made her spend her own money to buy the drywall sheet and then made her give up most of her Saturday sitting there watching and helping (as best she could) while he repaired it. I didn't really watch him do it so I don't know how ..but he said it wasn't a big deal. After you repair..just let the 'mud' dry and then sand and paint over and Voila.
Congrats on the safe. All I can add here is that maybe you should have asked your wife about that sweater.
If someone ever came in here all they'd have to do is look in the cardboard box by my desk to find all my silver. "/ ..I really need to get more responsible with the storage.
Did everybody go over to SilverGoldSilver's site tonight and watch part 4 of his videos???
ReplyDeletehttp://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-and-gold-manipulation.html#comments
Sure wouldn't mind getting a conversation going on here about those revelations!!!
If anyone watches it and wants to comment on what he says in it I'd like to read it, because I don't know what the hell to think.
Think I'm going to see how quickly GVille Coins can get me about 100 more Buffaloes on Monday though!
I'll be watching the comments on here tonight if anyone wants to talk about SGS's video.
Thanks Turd! Have a kick ass weekend man!
Seems like we all love SLW here. Making me think maybe I gotta sell mine now...
ReplyDeleteDoesn't Like Crowds
Ian you are one sick dude, and I mean that in the best possible way.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that most of you have waaaaay more money than I do. ..You all are in some kick-butt miners. Too rich for my blood. All I can afford are the very junior juniors. But on the bright side.. I believe there is much upside potential to the penny stock juniors if you choose well. Perhaps even more upside than to the already established miners. But again.. you have to pick right. The penny junior today that produces tomorrow will make folks very wealthy someday.
ReplyDeleteJust my opinion. I've stated it before.. but I am long Canadian Zinc, Rivett Minerals, Great Panther, US Silver, Silvermex, Bullion Mining, Silvercrest Mines, Impact Silver, Prodigy Gold ..and a few others.
Speaking of safe's, I have a fireproof safe. Only problem is it's only about the size of an smallish beer cooler so I suppose someone could just carry it away. The thing is, IF they could even find it in our junk filled house, it's so packed with silver it takes two strong men just to lift the stupid thing right now. A lone thief is totally screwed. So I got that going for me...
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what to think about that video. Someone asked if he was talking about that conference call but he said he'd never heard of it. I listened to some of that call but couldn't manage to sit through more than a few minutes at a time. Was the call about some kind of global debt settlement like what SGS apparently was talking about? If this is actually going to happen, wouldn't that have a deflationary effect?
ReplyDeleteAnd what about Wynter? Sounded like people were starting to think it might be legit until the lack of follow through this week. I'd like to post a response over there on Yahoo but Wynter probably wouldn't respond and honestly I don't know if it matters anyway. I have some questions about why she expects nobody would be skeptical.
I'm curious how much the miners will be impacted if oil goes to $150-200 from some serious turmoil in the middle east. What % of their expenses is related to energy? I plan on bulking up my energy investments to compliment my physical PM's & the miners.
ReplyDeletesassballsgrandpa,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the spreadsheets!
you just may be correct...but then again, we all on here are similarly sick in the best possible way!
ReplyDeleteif i'm reading this correctly it seems that Silver is no longer in backwardation as of today... i.e. July > May > April > March
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver.html
not sure what that does for physical demand theorists... maybe it'll just delay the whole Comex meltdown until spring
Turd: would you be able to post that email from Reader B somewhere?
Quick question on the make up of everyones investments. What is the % of physical PM"s in your investment portfolio?? I have 80k cash on the sidelines and am looking to add to my 40k+ of pm's and $10k jr. miners. What is everyones overall allocation to the pm's?? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteI dunno what to say about that video. Been ignoring most of them (even yours Turd, sorry). One thing my crystal ball is absolutely clear about is this:
ReplyDeleteIF we get a global meltdown of major currencies, and
IF they try to go to some kind of a gold related standard, then
ALL major governments will come out with BIG BIG numbers about how much gold they have backing their new currencies,
BUT not a single one of them will allow any kind of honest audit of their actual holdings, and
IF you try to actually redeem your currency for gold then GOOD LUCK :<
Almost time for Gold Rush Alaska! Catch you guys, and gals, later.
Dryam,
ReplyDeleteIf you don't mind me asking what energy investments are you considering?? I have also been doing my due diligence as of late on the oil, nat gas, etc plays. I feel this sector will shoot up in the near future and will be a black swan.
Cheers
Christine
ReplyDeleteQuick back-of-the-napkin calculation on investible cash shows almost 45% physical (counting GTU shares as well), plus another 5% miners. It's way too much and making me a bit twitchy nervous.
Funk there are still some months that are backward... Sept 2011, Mar 2012, July 2012, Dec 2012. I've been watching it pretty closely and they go in and out depending on the day. I'm not entirely sure what to make of it so I have to rely on more experienced individuals like Gene Arensberg and James Turk who say it's highly unusual and indicative of a shortage. Also SIFO rates are still negative and leasing rates are still spiking.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally there's something called the "convenience yield" which has been discussed by Chris Marchese pretty thoroughly on his Seeking Alpha posts. I keep up with him on facebook and he made this statement recently: "The Convenience yield is higher than in was in Jan 2009, where we saw a 40% increase in the price of silver in the following weeks and months."
Here's a link to one of his posts:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/248146-silver-multiple-bullish-indicators-signal-breakout
Hope that helps some. If anyone has anything to add please do.
Impala; I hope for your sake you wife wasn't the one who put FEAR THIS on your new safe.
ReplyDeleteOops forgot to add in 401(k)'s which are mostly cash-ish. Change those percents to 39% + 5% on my revised napkin calc.
ReplyDeleteEric,
ReplyDeleteAs you said earlier...if you agree with all of Sprott's interview (as i do) then you and the other turdites should be quite confident in the decisions we are making. If our money was not in pm's then i wouldn't be able to sleep!! Just my 2 cents.
Cheers
C
@ Christine: A simple and good piece of advice I once heard on how much physical is enough.
ReplyDeleteIf you are worried you have too much (like Eric said) then you probably do. If you wake up wondering if you have enough, you probably don't.
Good point Chris. I never wake up worrying about my pm's....and I know I would like more but at a discounted price of course (LOL)!! I am confident in my holdings but am trying to determine of how much more $$ to allocate to the physical.
ReplyDeleteinteresting that the video on SGS talks about Eagles could be confiscated by the government. And on ZH today there's this article about the Dutch Central Bank FORCING a pension fund to sell their shares of gold for the bullshit reason that gold is too risky to be in right now???? WTF, over? Is this a form of confiscation in a way?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-executive-order-6102-qe-generation-dutch-central-bank-orders-pension-fund-sell-it
my two cents. SLW is like an open 'Call Option' on silver. Almost no overhead. Only 18 employee's. Act more like a bank. No worries about fuel cost, mine cave ins, earthquakes etc. Been in it since GG / Wht days and trading it as low as $2.88 - Still my largest holding. Have owned GG, HL, SCCO. Now looking to add again HL & EXK. On another note, have you guys seen this article?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/metal_are_in_the_pits_2arTlGNbMK7mb1uJeVHb0O/0
Hm...
@ginger - Don't worry, if you're a low budget player you're not the only one here. What a great place to pick up on the wisdom of experience, however!
ReplyDeleteOne note on jr miners - you don't necessarily have to trade them. If you pick a decent one and just buy and hold it while the bull market continues to run, you can do very well. A few hundred dollars can potentially become much, much more without having to think about it much. I think that will be even more true in this bull than in the previous one. When it is time to liquidate the stock, buy physical. If that's too expensive, buy rental real estate.
I love this forum:
Mutual respect
No show-offs
Valuable info sharing
Super educational for many of us
Humor
Wisdom
No jerks
Turd, if you are getting garbage posts and removing them, thanks! If you are not, then even more thanks for creating a board that doesn't attract them!
Christine,
ReplyDeleteAs far energy goes, I've been in the following (all are in Canada)....
CSCTF - mostly oil
PEYUF - mostly natural gas
AETUF - approx. 50% oil / 50% natural gas
That have all done well. There have been some significant changes in Canadian tax law starting this year regarding energy trusts that should benefit these stocks. My future purchases will be oil companies, but not ones that any type of significant exposure to the U.S. I suspect if there is a big spike in oil, the U.S. government will label the oil companies as being evil & there will be big windfall profit taxes. I need to do some more research into Canadian oil companies.
Eric: You hurt Turd's feelings ;) ...at least watch the "Blythe Explains Her Motives".
ReplyDeleteOlNavy: So far, so good on the trolls. Everyone is really good at playing by the rules as I think most are sick and tired of the insultfests that rule 99.9% of other boards. Besides, there is NO free speech in Turd's World...I delete posts and posters I don't like.
Erwin
ReplyDeleteThat story is almost a year old, but Max Keiser was saying just today that McGuire is supposed to have some new stuff out in the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned...
Turd,
ReplyDeleteLink please on your vid. I promise I'll watch it this time :)
Chris, Christine, et al
ReplyDeleteI always come back to the "sleep at night" test. Maybe I worry when I have too little, maybe I worry when I have too much. I'm always looking for that happy medium where I can sleep at night. But it's a moving target and there's the rub...
Chris, Christine, et al
ReplyDeleteMaybe part of my problem is that I just recently went back into some miners again after a long long hiatus. Those things make me nervous, even if it's just a small allocation. Been scarred by too many bad memories from back in the day I guess. I didn't feel like it was too much when it was just physical.
Speaking of confiscation... the couple black swans I see for silver:
ReplyDelete-Declared a strategic metal by the military. Outlawed ownership
-Revolution. The ratio skews dramatically towards gold, as size matters for people trying to escape across the border to Canada.
-A complete collapse of the cellphone, solar panel industry, etc. Although in that situation paper money would probably collapse too, and silver would roar back.
Here you go, Eric.
ReplyDeleteThe Academy has nominated it in the Best Short Film category.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FGVtJRWP6k
dryam & Christine,
ReplyDeleteGood point about what an oil spike would do to miners. I tend to look at a gold or silver coin as just a hell of a lot of embedded energy. Modern mining operations are practically an alchemy of turning oil into gold.
Cash mining costs would rise considerably, profits would dump. On the other hand, finished gold bullion would be that much more valuable because it would be tougher to replace. So spot gold goes up. Good for the miners. But the economy tanks so gold goes down. But then there's more QE so gold goes up. Pretty tough to figure how it all shakes out, but it would be a bumpy ride.
I like the big oil sands players. They've treated me very well for a long time. I don't worry about those like I do miners. SU, CVE, CNQ, COSWF. I sleep at night just fine with those.
So apparently there was some Bernanke interview in 2009 that the "Crisis Panel" conducted and they won't release the entire thing.
ReplyDelete"In the unreleased interview, Bernanke also criticized credit-rating companies, discussed how he underestimated effects from the subprime-mortgage crisis, and said the central bank's lack of aggressiveness in mortgage regulation "was the most severe failure of the Fed in this particular episode," according to the report. Bernanke told the FCIC that after Lehman failed, the Fed was concerned that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. would 'go under.'"
This is the same guy who is "100% confident" he can pull out all the QE at just the right time to avert disaster.
http://gata.org/node/9593
BTW with the news story out today about the IMF calling for an alternative to the dollar, I don't think anyone can legitimately say Bernanke doesn't know what he's doing. Unless he doesn't even read or watch the news, he knows exactly what he's doing.
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm
OK Turd, the vid is good. Cuts right to the heart of the matter. I'll give it an A-, just cuz I didn't need the part about the hand jobs, etc. Not that there's anything wrong with a good one...
ReplyDeleteRegarding the Dutch pension fund, are we sure if it's Gold or GLD that they are being forced to sell?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ882QYzr-M
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePat,
ReplyDeleteI look forward to seeing the TRE story. Much appreciated in advance!!
Christine...I have 11%+ in g and s (diversifed, inc. junk silver), plus about 30% of my stock portfolio in miners. Thinking of adding more silver next week. Stocks include GG, EGO, AUY,(these at various levels) and GDX, GDXJ, and a bit of SLV that I'm holding for now (sold off at resistance a couple of times.) I sold off the last of my old GLD last week.
ReplyDeleteI want to add a couple of more miners, too. And more GDX and GDXJ.
Owned HL and SLW in the past. Need to get back into SLW, that's for sure!
Great ideas, thanks everybody for their stock lists!
This may be common knowledge at this point, but I think it supports the idea that the "ETF outflows" have nothing to do with people wanting out of the metals but everything to do with institutions or individuals redeeming shares in order to get physical silver. I looked at the historical IShares SLV data on their website. It shows on 1/25 the low was put in at $26.23/share and on 2/10 the share price was $29.46. During that same period, the number of ounces decreased from 335901359 to 333996310 which is a decline of almost 2M ounces. So SLV actually saw INFLOWS of money as it rose more than $3/share while the physical went out the door at an average rate of about 150K ounces/day.
ReplyDeleteThe pundits still haven't caught onto the real reason for the physical outflows. They are still talking about it like it's a negative thing.
Miners im holding:
ReplyDeleteArgonaut ARNGF (from buyout of pezgf)
Aurcana AUNFF
CDE (almost out now)
Evolving EVOG
Gold Wheaton GLWGF
Hawthorne (only one thats down)
Mosquito MQCMF (molybdenum)
GDX
GDXJ
SIL
GLDX
And have previously held and profited off of many others listed previously. Most of my miners have been picked by bob moriarty at 321gold. Guy has picked me some real winners. I wish I had kept great panther and endeavour but did very well with them so cant complain.
Can someone elaborate on sinclairs recent comments about armstrong? Martin armstrong im assuming, but what about him other than he predicted a larger correction than we've had. I feel like i'm out of the loop all of a sudden with his cryptic messages.
ReplyDeleteSeriously do you really think that McGuire could bring ANYTHING that would upset the apple cart? It will make great internet fodder. But these crooks are UNTOUCHABLE. So don't get your panties in a wad thinking that anything will come from this. Everything is controlled. He could have pics of Ben Bernanke stuffing Timmy's panties with hundreds and no one would care...Its all above the law.....
ReplyDeleteChris, have to completely agree with you about the latest SilverGoldSilver video - what a worthess segment. It's just a regurgitation of Internet rumors of questionable credibility, with no substantiated claims and nothing insightful to add.
ReplyDeleteI'm underwhelmed, and expected more from SGS after the good calls made in the videos prior to this one.
Isnt silverGoldSilver actually Andrew Mcguire, looking forward to his Max Keiser interview.
ReplyDeleteComex Default in March.... IMF chief urging new global currency.... its all go!
RLP,
ReplyDeleteGo through comments section of Turd's post yesterday (not sure which one). I asked a similar question and was pointed towards where I could find the answer (which is $1,372)
I thought Gold Wheaton was getting bought out? Maybe I was mistaken.
ReplyDeleteI remember way back, the royalty companies (Euro Nevada, Franco Nevada) used to really kick butt. Even compared to other miners. That's why I like SLW so much now. But somehow I got the impression that Gold Wheaton was already in a buyout agreement so I didn't look any further. And Iooked at the chart for the current Franco Nevada and thought "Boooooring!" so I passed on that one and settled on SLW.
kliguy38
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty much with you on McGuire, good theatre though. It's just that a commenter posted that old news so I figured I'd tip him as to something maybe coming up if he's interested.
Nuthin' is really going to crack these bastards, except maybe actual physical shortages. And even that is more theoretical than anything at this point.
Can't really add much but I'd like to give you all a little "pointer". Not so much in a PM sense but more of a cautionary tone.
ReplyDeleteI've been re-watching Firefly and Serenity (again) and would suggest that the episode "Jaynestown" is essential viewing. You see, I reckon that we are the "Mudders". All a matter of perspective - vital now that we appear to have a "white night" in Lady Wynter and her group. See where I'm going?
Yeah and I can't but help as see the EE as the Alliance...
Have a good weekend all, and remember, they can't take the sky from us.
Silver backwardation story is going mainstream.
ReplyDelete"US silver term structure inverts as supply tightens
* COMEX silver stocks falls to four-year low
* First silver futures backwardation since '97-98
* Strong industrial, coins demand, producer hedging cited"
The article goes on to cite "reasons" and states that there will be excess supply at the end of the year.
So if there is no immediate supply problem as some have said, why are the Comex vaults and the SLV fund being drained?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/11/silver-backwardation-idUSN1133112820110211
Bizarre article. Goes on and on about tightness, then ends with an "expert" saying there will be excess supply by year end. Total nonsequitur. If they had anything about how we get from "A" to "B", I missed it.
ReplyDeleteSeems almost like the editor made them paste that last paragraph on there. But then maybe that's just my tin foil hat talking.
One stock I haven't seen mentioned yet is TMM - Timmins Gold Corp. This stock has been great to my portfolio.
ReplyDeleteI just thought this was very interesting from the NIA. They do not believe it would be possible for the USA to return to a gold standard unless it were to be implemented right away. Their reasoning is sound. It's from the NIAnswers section. Also, note that they see an Egyptian-style protest on our horizon ..only on steroids.
ReplyDeletehttp://inflation.us/nianswers/index.php?anewer=8282&latest=25
Speaking of miners, is there a minimum number of shares that you feel you have to buy in to for a stock to be 'worth your while'? The reason I ask is that because when I first became enlightened to what is going on in our gov't and financial world, I bought in to several miners that today I'm not really interested in adding to. They might be GOOD miners but their share price is either prohibitive for me to add to or I have just found better opportunities. I hold so few shares that even when big gains are made..it doesn't really add much to my portfolio. As an example..SLW is one that I bought that I hold very few shares in. I can't really afford to add much to my position as they are very pricey shares!...at least for my personal budget. Is it better to hold these no matter how few I own because they are a rock solid miner..or would you cash them out and invest more shares with a smaller junior that will yeild more shares now and potentially a larger profit in the future?
ReplyDeleteDid any of that make sense? lol.
Ginger-
ReplyDeleteLooked at your junior picks and like them all. Nice job in selecting your portfolio...Maybe Eric Sprott could use you on this team. :)
Ginger, I haven't really been following the whole miner conversation but if you don't have a lot of money to lose on them I would suggest going into one or more of the gold/silver funds. They perform quite well when the metals are trading higher. I would take a look at SIL and GDXJ if you're looking for something slanted toward juniors. You'll get exposure to lots of good names and won't have to worry so much about individual stocks blowing up for reasons completely unrelated to the major thesis of trending higher gold and silver prices.
ReplyDeleteJayhawk,
ReplyDeleteThank you tremendously for kind words.. However, if you only knew what a novice newbie I am at all of this! 6 months ago, I knew Zero about any of this. I read blogs like this and honestly..the NIA and lebed.biz has helped me tremendously with my picks. They have some solid performers (at least so far) on their stock suggestions page. I do my own research after I get their recommendations BUT..coming from a point of such little knowledge on the subject I have had to take suggestions from those who know alot more than me.
Appreciate the encouraging words.. hopefully we're all on the right track!
flaunt,
ReplyDeleteSIL & GDXJ are ones that I see mentioned alot around here and other blogs. I'm on it.. THANKS!
Great stuff everyone.
ReplyDeleteKeep it up!!
Eric, it seemed a little strange to me as well. Also this bit threw me:
ReplyDelete"Strong silver coin sales have more than offset outflow from the world's largest silver-backed exchange traded fund iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which notched its biggest one-month drop in its silver holdings in January."
When are these braniacs going to realize that outflows from SLV in the face of HIGHER prices is actually a bullish indicator? It's amazing how long it takes the "experts" to figure things out.
Not really sure I comprehended the explanation for how they hedge. It says they sell forward and then have to borrow a lot of silver. Why would they have to borrow silver if they're locking in prices for future production?
Anyone investing in silver producers might want to check and make sure they don't own one of the companies doing this hedging... It could cost them.
Please check the update I've posted, too.
ReplyDeleteThis is very interesting for anyone interested in the wti/brent crude spread. Picked it up from Harvey's blog:
ReplyDelete"...the oil industry and the investment community will look to Brent as the new benchmark for global oil prices."
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=121424
Hey All -
ReplyDeleteNice piece by James West on today's Midas Letter. Does a good job of summing up the big picture in about 850 words.
http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/fiat-world-uprising-downfalling-gold-silver-11021101/
The verification word for my previous post was "spent" - ain't that ironical?
ReplyDeleteThere are 2 good threads on Kitco's precious metals miners section.
ReplyDeleteOne deals exclusively with the junior penny stocks...The gal who started it is a Canadian mining bug who seems to have a way of finding some real winners. I'm not a big fan of the penny stocks, but most over there seem to be doing really well trading these.
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585
Then there's this one started by mining geeks who look under the hood at the numbers that make my eyes glass over-
Center for Miners Fundamental Analysis
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=67230
The user who started that one, Will Wong, has a google spread sheet you can view. Tabs on the bottom of the page give you gold picks and silver picks. Note-their top gold pick from last Fall was NAK. Not bad.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoStOj0lu5BZdG5peFhDSW9fcVRUOE1Yc3ppQzBHQnc&hl=en&authkey=CN2G6PAN#gid=1
Ginger
ReplyDeletePersonally I don't spend much time worrying about the absolute share price. For instance, if I want to put $10k into mining stocks, say maybe $2k each into my 5 best ideas, then it doesn't matter to me if one of them is 50 shares at $40, the next one is 1000 shares at $2, etc.
Once they are bought, it's all about what that 2000 is doing, and what the total 10000 is doing. Use GLDX or maybe the HUI as a performance benchmark. Daily and over weeks and months see if anybody is not pulling his weight.
Given the market for a period of time, is my 2000 up 100 or down 100? is the 10000 up 300 or down 300? Does it fit expectaions relative to my chosen benchmark? If I seem to have a slacker in the list I need to reconsider. Maybe it has to go. Maybe I see a reason to hold on. But it's all about performance, not about the absolute share price. Maybe SLW continues to meet all my expectations, while one of my tiny juniors just can't seem to get going. If there's a fundamental problem it will show up in poor relative performance long before you'll read about it in a news release.
Also consider that maybe one or two were meant to be a bit slower moving, to provide a little "ballast", while one or two were meant to be lottery tickets. Again, it's all about expectaions, but overall that 10k portfolio better meet or beat the benchmark or something is wrong and I need to make a change.
Anyway, that's my take. I'm no freaking genius either, but I hope that helps.
blindweb -
ReplyDeleteYou bring up a some of interesting pints in your last post. 1. Military strategic metal status could be used as a pretext for confiscation by designating only "authorized buyers" but in that case I think the black market would explode. 2. If the whole system breaks down and everybody wants to get some real money, silver will be the one most people can afford, not gold. 3. I know, I know, silver is an industrial metal, but that has only been the case for the past half century. It has a 5000 year history as money. A sudden drop in industrial demand will probably be accompanied by an upsurge in investment and monetary demand. I honestly don't know which one will be the dominant factor in the near term, but long term, I think it will revert to it's historical role, including a GSR around 15+/-.
blindweb -
ReplyDeleteinteresting POINTS, you brought up interesting points! :-)
And, if over time I just can't seem to beat the benchmark, I should probably sell the lot and just buy GLDX instead. But that's not half as much fun!
ReplyDeleteTRE synopsis: ( most of this is public knowledge, easily found on TRE website and a few other places)
ReplyDelete- Mostly funded internally from Jim Sinclair; some $22M of no interest loans. Funding of most gold companies is the key issue they fail
- Some recent private placements, stock purchases with monies used to buy heavy equipment
- TRE bootstrapping itself from explore to miner this year ; Sinclair has stated he wants to rapidly move past junior to mid-level status
- Sinclair has set up a very positive relationship with the Tanzanian country; they will share the wealth; will help infrastructure and resident farmers, etc.
- Kigosi site producing now; larger crushers arrived late Dec. and may well be in play by now; other crushers at Lunguya property
- TRE beat out 36 other competitors to win Buckreef bid
- Sinclair of course has access to the best gold men in the business; also smartly hired a lot of locals for key positions
- Tanzania probably most stable country in Africa; recent elections went well with no issues, etc
- Kigosi site alone: over 20M tons of gold bearing gravel, ~5-10g/ton. This can be gravity extracted super cheaply for around $50/ounce. That alone should yield ~7M ounces.
- IM ounces equates to around 1B market cap; do the math
- Kigosi quartz reefs drilling has shown very rich veins as high as 5 ounces/ton! I don’t know extraction method nor cost on the reefs however.
- This is just one site and gold only; they have many other sites with gold, nickel, diamonds, etc. Won’t go into those here
- On all the above I suggest read, read, read. The website is chock-a-block full of info. Read the Pulldown Prez, CEO, and VP blogs; read the 2010 annual report; google Sinclair and learn about this incredible man. Read the press releases.
- The Annual stockholder mtg is Feb. 22; my conjecture is there may be lots of news leading up to and/or post the meeting. In any event, with production under way, I expect 2011 to be quite a year. My personal opinion: this is still a ground floor opportunity and a three digit stock in 1-2 years.
- More but this is unsubstantiated rumor as of today: there is one entity who holds a 6M share short, which equates to 13.5 days of average volume. The run-up over the last few weeks from $5.95 to $6.98 has to be worrisome, ya think? Especially with Feb 22 mtg approaching.
- Another rumor is that company will begin dividends this year, based on production, paid in gold and 60% of production , other 40% plowed back into expansions.
That’s enough for now. Be glad to field questions, but the above is pretty exhaustive. Hope ya’ll can share likewise with your holdings.
Here's to sharing.
ReplyDeleteA bit of cut and paste from a couple nights ago on why I like UXG in case anybody missed it.
-------------
Speaking of GG and Rob McEwen, here is the corporate presentation for UXG. Nothing like laying it all right on the line! McEwen could teach those Vancouver schmucks a thing or two.
http://www.usgold.com/presentation/pdf/34.pdf
---------------
For anyong interested in some backstory on Rob McEwen (working totally from memory here so don't kill me please), he was running Goldcorp way back when it was just a typical Canadian underground gold mine. Mostly played out, getting too deep, costs rising, you know the drill. So he did something completely unprecedented. He put all the data out to the public. Drilling data, ore grades, 3D models, the whole smear. And asked anyone and everyone if they had any ideas. Where to drill next? They tried some of those ideas and sure enough they hit it, big time. And that's what sent GG to the moon.
Then later there was a falling out with the board and McEwen bailed out and started up UXG.
The other thing that McEwen did that I loved was for a while the gold price was awfully low, so he just said screw it we'll just put the stuff in storage and leave it on our balance sheet. Not For Sale (at your crappy manipulated paper gold prices). Sold all that inventory later at higher prices.
Balls. The guy's got Balls.
Pat -
ReplyDeleteThanks, of course, on behalf of everyone here.
What, in your opinion, does the recent run up indicate?
A question for traders on the blog:
ReplyDeleteCan someone stand delivery for a e-mini future? Let's say silver e-mini. It's 1000 oz of silver. Times $30/oz. So to stand for e-mini delivery, it's around $30K. If someone has deep pockets, then can try to stand delivery for March.
If COMEX pays the e-mini holder a premium to not take physical delivery, then we have 1st hand confirmation COMEX is goner. If COMEX can deliver, then 1000 oz. physical silver isn't too bad. 1000 oz. silver is only ten 100 oz. bars. I am sure local coin shops will gladly take it out of your hand.
Similarity between UXG and TRE is much of the appeal is the personality and reputation of the man running the show. MIght sound shallow, but trust me that counts for a ton in the junior mining business.
ReplyDeleteCounter- I think the comex would have to be completely out of silver for them to fail to deliver on a single 1000oz bar. Further the only contract I see trading right now is July 2014.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/e-mini-silver.html
countermeasure,
ReplyDeleteI have tried this on Indian mcxindia.com (suppose to be largest Silver being traded no 1 in World) exchange 30Kg/1000 oz and every-time I know people have got delivery, NO premium.
That's why I was saying there is plenty of Silver in Indian market. In my small city also bullion delers were talking of delivering whatever quantity needed.
Here's a new piece from James Turk, talking about the gold/silver ratio and backwardation:
ReplyDelete"If I am right and the ratio knifes through the low 40s and below the Buffett point, there is no clear short-term target. Given the momentum evident in the above chart and the bullish fundamental factors impacting silver at present – like its unprecedented backwardation – a drop to at least the low 30s seems highly likely, but I don’t rule out the possibility of the ratio falling even lower."
http://www.fgmr.com/watch-the-gold-silver-ratio.html
Jayhawk,
ReplyDeleteThose kitco threads are great ..so helpful. Thank YOU!
Eric,
Your perspective made a lot of sense to me. I think I will hold onto my paltry holdings in SLW. I bought in at $26 and it hasn't let me down. Wish I could afford more.. but I guess I would always wish that no matter what my position in it was. You helped me clear the cobwebs about what to hold/what to let go.. Thanks so much.
oldNavy,
I agree with your long term outlook on silver returning to its historical role. It's just a matter of time and I don't want to be left out. BUY the metals & miners NOW!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver going mainstream?
ReplyDelete---
Anyone watch that "Gold Rush Alaska" show on Discovery Channel? Guys selling everything to risk it all on mining gold.
What about that "Storage Wars"? I saw an episode the guy bought a storage locker for a few hundred dollars, found silver coins, visited a coin shop and discovered his silver was worth several thousand dollars.
---
Most of us have been or know someone burned by the tech and housing bubbles. I hope I'm wrong about this, but I remember co-workers quitting to day-trade tech stocks... we know how that ended. I recall one the most popular shows on cable was "FLIP THIS HOUSE", well I probably don't need to go there.
Now we got shows about getting rich with Gold and Silver...
Turd et al,
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of being a great forum for sharing information I was wondering if you (all) had any recommendations for good books on the following:
1. Commodities market/trading
2. Options on Commodities
3. Technical Analysis
4. Other?
I read a lot of books and there's nothing like that feeling when you find that 1 in 100 that is truly a cut above the rest. So rewarding, unfortunately you just read through 99 'also ran' and that is not so efficient.
Quid pro quo, here are a couple of recommendations:
1. 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' by: Edwin Leferve. This book was written in the early 1900's but it's classic and to my knowledge it is one of the first if not the first 'insider tell all' so to speak about trading in the casino gulag (i mean market)
2. 'You Can Be a Stock Market Genius' by: Joel Greenblatt, yes the name sounds cornball as hell but the book is not. Actually does a great job at using aspects of modern portfolio theory in a practical and understandable way. Just a very well constructed investment strategy book which covers a wide range of topics such as, value investing, sources for research, event driven investment strategies, ect.
3. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/ - obviously not a book but this guy is the most prolific author on the subject of Gold and its relation to macro-economics/geo-politicals I've come across. Jim Rickards is another great one but FOFOA has much more written content on the subject.
4. 'Liars Poker' and 'The Big Short' by: Micheal Lewis, this guy is a former Solomon Brothers bond trader but is a real life bona fide writer. By that I mean he's a more talented writer than I'm sure he was a bond trader - not that he was a bad trader, just his writing is that good. He also wrote 'The Blind Side,' you know that popular football movie with Sandra Bullock (that sounded weird.) Anyway if you're looking for actual entertainment in addition to some practical non-fiction history these are two great reads IMHO. The former is about Wall street in the 80's told from an insider (Michel Lewis himself) and the later is about the Sub prime crisis. The two books actually tie into one another as 'Liars Poker,' among other things, chronicles the birth of the securitized mortgage bond market which then 20 plus years later segways into 'The Big Short.'
5. 'Inflated' by: Chris Whalen, Just a very good book on the overall monetary history of the good ol' USA, dating all the way back to the founding of this country. To understand where we are headed it's good to have an understanding of where we have been.
So those are a few that jump to mind at the moment.
Hopefully this can lead to some other good recommendations or Turd if you think it worthy maybe a thread of it's own one day?
"Truth is beautiful and proper in all times and in all places" -Frederick Douglass
-V
Check out Orvana Minerals!
ReplyDeleteORV is (re)starting two mines this year, one in Boliva and one in Spain.
Once up and running at full speed, ORV will produce 120k oz Au, or 200k oz Au equiv., at decent cash cost.
Don't be surprised to see EPS at 75-100c, or even higher, in 2012. Apply a p/e multipel of 10 or 12 and yesterday's close of 3.35 CAD is dirt cheap.
Disclosure: I do own a fair chunk of the stock.
Old Navy,
ReplyDeleteThe recent run-up on TRE has been very interesting.It rallied on some days when gold was down, which rarely if ever happened in the past. The other very positive thing is that on the up days the volume was significantly higher than average. And finally a move from $5.95 to $6.98 in a relatively short span aint bad.
Why?
- certainly the press releases on the private placements ( some who have warrants in the $7+ area ) was very positive, two ways. The confidence from the investors, and the fact that monies were immediately used to buy more and more crushers. The move to production is THE event in any new gold endeavor.
- the elections that were held, and the folks elected, were watched closely. No unforseen events, gotchas, whatever, helped greatly. Local government in Africa will always be a key element.
- Now that production gear is in place and operational, and with the big Feb 22 mtg looming, there is a lot of specutlaion about possible press releases. I just know I wouldn't want to be short.
- At least so far, a lot of that seasonal weakness talk for gold, and dipping to 1250, didn't come to pass. Dat sho don't hurt.
- There may well be a few ME funds heavily investing ( from Oman in particular ). I cannot say this is a fact however.
- and the short interest is high; 6M shares and a 13.5 day cover. man, if it does pop, that cover is good for a few bucks/share right there.
All conjecture of course. All we can do is read the tea leaves that are available. Ya pays your money, and ya takes your chances.
@Victor - I've only recently decided to get into trading, so I haven't read much on the subject yet. What actually brought me into silver and gold was reading about the history of money. The best books I have run across so far are The Creature From Jekyll Island (Griffin), Investing in Gold and Silver (Maloney), and The Collapse of the Dollar (Turk). There is one book on trading I have read, but it is very much for beginners. It is called The Visual Investor (Murphy).
ReplyDeletePat,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the information, I've not looked at this company in the past, it sounds interesting.
What is the market cap and what is the estimated total cash cost?
@VictorE
ReplyDeleteI am currently reading 'The New Commodity Trading Guide' by Kleinman which I find to be well written and presented in a practical way... very inspiring.
Trading and Investing are different strategies I know, but to make the real money these days it seems one has to know how to do both. 'Buy and hold' just doesn't seem to cut it anymore.
@All - I own Avion Gold (a Sprott pick) and had a good double last year. Their forecasts for 2011 are good but aren't reflected in their stock price. Good management too.
Just got this from Max Keiser...
ReplyDeleteHe recently met with Andrew Maguire (it's been a year since he revealed the JPM manipulation in the silver paper market... and the CFTC is still stonewalling)and Max reports that Andrew has a "bombshell" story that will put some of the players in jail (nice thought)... here's a link to the Alex Jones interview.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwykKgUBijM
Eric - I also looked at Gold Wheaton, and it looked like it was going to get acquired by Franco Nevada, so I wasn't interested. But I see that Gold Wheaton shares are still being traded, I guess that means that the deal hasn't gone through yet. I haven't seen any news on whether the deal is still in progress or whether it ran into problems.
ReplyDeleteWhat I did find, however, was Sandstorm Resources (SSL.V, SNDXF.PK, AYS.F), which is a gold streamer analogous to SLW. What I really like about Sandstorm is that the CEO is a Mr. Nolan Watson, who was previously the CFO at Silver Wheaton. I figured that since SLW is so successful, Mr. Watson must know his stuff, so I bought a few shares of Sandstorm.
On another note, SLW is my largest holding in the Silver space. My figuring there is that SLW as a silver streaming company has had proven success with investing in junior miners. I, on the other hand, don't have deep mining knowledge. So I think my best bet is to place my biggest investment with a company that seems to have good experts.
I also have small positions in miners, namely AG, HL, SVM, EXK, Revett, and GPL.
Turd..
ReplyDeletebeen watching the site.
nicely done
@Pat
ReplyDeleteThanks, again!
@VictorE
I like your idea for a book list. Looks like you partially got your wish for a thread on that subject already, but perhaps one day soon the Turd would be kind enough to invite everyone to submit or recap their best book recommendations. I think that would be very valuable!
Folks.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at Evolving Gold, T:EVG($1.00) and BB:EVOGF. evolvinggold.com Goldcorp recently bought a 15% stake in the company. EVG has a great property in Wyoming at Rattlesnake Hills that is a huge deposit in the making. Sprott(through 3 funds) holds about 12% of the companies shares. EVG also holds properties in the Carlin trend of Nevada. Some with Newmont, some 100% owned.
Good luck
snick--
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tip on Sandstorm! I'm definitely going to check that out!
Ginger
ReplyDeleteI re-read my note to you above and noticed that I said GLDX as a potential benchmark when I meant GDXJ. So, wondering how stupid I was, and if GLDX even existed, I checked it out and yes indeed it does. Commenter Robert Leroy Parker noted it as well above but I didn't notice it right away either. Anyway, the HUI is a good benchmark index or one of these ETF's work well too. In terms of the typical size of mining company included in the ETF, from largest to smallest I think they would go GDX, GDXJ, and then GLDX.
I like an ETF as a benchmark because it's easy to put up a stock chart comparing my stocks vs the ETF, over varying time periods, all on the one chart. A picture is worth a thousand words!
LOL word verification
ReplyDeleterevante
Sounds like it is some kind of awesome toast. Revante! to you all
Since, in America, we're stuck with a two-party system, this is certainly encouraging:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/12/rep-ron-paul-captures-cpac-straw-poll/
"This has become a great thread for the exchange of info on miners and I don't want to hijack it. "
ReplyDelete:)
Pat,
ReplyDeletethanks for the info on TRE.
Called up my local coin shop this morning to see if he had any silver American Eagles to sell. He said that he had only 4 but should have more next week. Said that there has been a lot more buyers than sellers.
ReplyDeleteDidn't want to wait that long, so ended up purchasing some silver from Gainesville Coins (have previously used apmex) but thanks to a fellow Turd posting about Gainsesville, found as long as one wants to go through the hassle of a bank wire transfer their price on silver was a bit lower than apmex.
Also, put some more money in my trading account (Oanda - gota love their leverage, although it can be a double edged sword) and will be waiting for next week. Have already set up a bunch of limit buy orders. If price goes down, will be buying more, and if price goes up, will be buying more too. Want to see silver hit 35 by the end of March.
Stay stong fellow Turds.
I don't like single-company risk, so most of my stock portfolio is in GDXJ, SIL and Blackrock World Gold Fund USD (an unlisted fund that's similar to GDX). I also have some SLW and TRE.
ReplyDeleteFor leveraged exposure, I have XAU/USD (USD gold), XAU/JPY (JPY gold) and XAG/USD (USD silver)
For physical, I think in terms of weights that I can relate to: I have silver that weighs in total about the same as my daughter and youngest son combined. Trying to build up to my own body weight!
Great 3 part Max Keiser interview with Catherine Austin-Fitts (she is a director at GATA). Parts 2 and 3 were especially good, e.g. the dollar is not backed by gold, but by threat of military force.
ReplyDeletehttp://maxkeiser.com/2011/02/12/ote96-on-the-edge-with-catherine-austin-fitts/
With Gainesville, if you have a SunTrust account you can transfer account to account and save the wire transfer fee. You just send them an email with all the same info you put on a normal wire. I just did it and it worked fine. My order actually shipped quicker than a wire usually does.
ReplyDelete@Eric
ReplyDelete...or maybe a new convertible model from Kia...
If Andrew Maguire has dirt on people, why would he hold it? Go to law enforcement or if you've done that release it now. Don't make yourself a target by keeping silent for two weeks.
ReplyDeleteSomething about it just doesn't hold water.
How much do people think one could outperform the gdxj or gdx by if they were to only use a basket of say 5-10 miners? Has anyone implemented this strategy and completely forgone the etfs?
ReplyDeleteWhen i look up the holdings of the etfs i like every single company in them so it seems like a tough nut to crack, but it sure seems that outperforming by 10-20% is very doable.
When I first got into gold i would trade individual miners more frequently, but have since gotten lazy and moved heavier to the etfs, perhaps its time to switch back. Turd, maybe you can do a poll of favorites and just list all the holdings of gdxj and separately for the hui or gdx? That would be awesome.
Did some math on the intermediate cycle(Late July to early Dec) -assuming a 200K portfolio. I wanted to see performance of a GDXJ/SIL blend vs. hand picked top silver miners & gold juniors. For my preference, I went with 75/25 silver miners to gold miners ratio. (or 150K of SIL, 50K of GDXJ)
ReplyDeleteFor the hand picked portfolio-(dollar amts)
60K of SLW
20K of HL
20K of SVM
20K of NG
10K of NAK
10K of UXG
20K of SSRI
20K of PAAS
10K of RBY
10K of AXU (by far the best performer)
The SIL/GDJX returned 193K
The hand picked on returned 231K
A portfolio of just SLW returned 266K
If you just went with AGQ-350K return.
(Those were dollar amts of the position, not shares)
ReplyDeleteThanks Jayhawk, 20% right there. Personally i lean heavier to gold than silver mostly because of fofoa, but other reasons as well. He wouldnt approve of miners at all so maybe ill get back to a 50/50 split given silver's recent outperformance.
ReplyDeleteI dont think i would ever put all my eggs in one basket though perhaps besides physical gold. It'd be real interesting to check the math after the potential poll i mentioned. I know there are polls at kitco all the time, but that place rubs me the wrong way sometimes, especially with nadler lurking in the background.
Robert, you could always try to juice your returns on the ETFs with options. Selling covered calls maybe, or even buying calls at times when you think the ETFs are overly-cheap.
ReplyDeleteI do quite a bit of options trading with the etfs already.
ReplyDeleteJames Turk on gold and silver ratio.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fgmr.com/watch-the-gold-silver-ratio.html
A couple of my favourite juniors not mentioned here are Nautilus NUS ticker - london - the first company to mine PMs & copper under the sea.
ReplyDeleteAlso Ampella , a goldminer on the ASX. Both have
doubled this year.
Well, this has been a really interesting thread, in many ways. Lots of great ideas here. So I took some time last night and tried to take a quick look at each and every one of the stocks mentioned to try to winnow down the list at to what I might want to think about further. Now this was pretty quick and dirty. 5 minutes max, a quick look at a chart, the market cap, and the company website. Huge caveats that what appeals to me might not appeal to you, and visa versa, and maybe I'm an idiot with a knack for missing the big winners, etc, etc. Also in no way no how do I intend to slight anybody's picks that I crossed off my list. They are all good, they are all valid, etc. All I'm saying is that this blog provided me with 8 solid names, above and beyond what I already own,
ReplyDeletethat appeal to me and that I intend to give a deeper look.
So here goes nuthin'
Already owned:
Silver Wheaton
Hecla
Pan American
Coeur d'alene
Avino
Great Panther
US Gold
First Majestic
Still looking at:
Endeavour
NovaGold
Gammon
Silver Standard
New Gold
Silvercrest
Impact Silver
Sandstorm
There's another huge caveat that I think was touched on in comments above. Given a benchmark ETF like GDXJ, there comes a point where if your list gets too long, chances are your performance is going to mirror the ETF, and thus you might as well just own the ETF in the first place. Your only real chance to outperform (and underperform!) is to keep the list relatively small. It's just a mathematical fact. Again, without anything quantitative to back me up, my gut tells me that once you get past 10 or 15 names, you might as well just buy the index to begin with.
So there's not much point in me just buying all 8 of these additional names. I might buy one or two right away, but after that it needs to be more of a watch list, waiting to see if one of my others faulters or disappoints.
Good Luck and Be Careful Out There!
I have a question to put to the community. What GSR would you consider advantagious to begin trading physical silver for physical gold? THX.
ReplyDeleteRick
ReplyDeleteFor me, I bought most of my silver when the GSR was around 60-65. I did swap some of it for gold at around 48, just because the opportunity came along for some gold that I really liked. Kind of sitting on my hands now, waiting maybe for 35 or less. I for one do not ascribe any mythical or magical or god given properties to the 15 or 16 to 1 ratio that is so often talked about. If you study it long term, and I'm talking hundreds maybe thousands of years, you'll find that 15 to 1 has been repeatedly instituted and then abandoned throughout history because the price of silver just couldn't keep up over time. We might get there on some kind of bubblishious top, but I'm not holding my breath. Most of my silver will be long gone by then. Also we are now seeing articles about how silver will really go sky high, reach parity with gold, etc. I ain't holding my breath on that one either.
Eric, I bought most of my silver at around 70 but recently exchanged gold at 47. I don't believe a gsr of < 20 is necessarily a lock either. Will probably begin to swap at < 30-25. THX for input.
ReplyDeletecheck this one out... got it from a Facebook trading thread, the guy who posted it says, "This (CHART LINKED BELOW) looks like a good first line of support. I entered a position here yesterday. I have a further order in at .86 JIC. If we get a big selloff in the market it might trigger. I am not counting on it though. I bought 60% of my position yesterday, with the remaining 40% as the contingency. I have some shares in my IRA at a much lower price point. Based on FA, target is $2.65. They should be online and in production by summer which is going to give a big boost to stock price. IMO, this is the consolidation phase prior to the larger sustained move. This is a long term hold for me."
ReplyDeleteGWMGF
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GWMGF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=20&id=p99190796713&a=224458979
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite late to the party but here's the data for those comparing notes. This was a great thread with open and informative discussion at MANY levels. Much appreciated on this end. Thank you all.
ReplyDeleteNot including our mortgaged home and old vehicles we have the following rough distribution of investments:
Physical PM's 60%
Inherited IRA 20%
Pension from job 19%
Cash 1%
In the PM's we have 25% gold and 75% silver.
In the inherited IRA we are 100% in miners. See list below.
In the Pension we're restricted in choices and so are 50-50 in two emerging market mutual funds. If I could get my wife to retire early, so we could roll her pension into an IRA full of miners, I'd be happy. She still wants to work. I'll win eventually.
In the miners we have the following:
AUN - Aurcana 40%
AG - First Majestic 20%
GGCRF - SilverMex 10%
GPR - Great Panther 8%
SLW - Silver Wheaton 9%
HL - Hecla 7%
CDE - Coeur D'Alene 4%
EXLLF - 1%
MVG - 1%
All but AUN have been highly touted by posters above. I remain surprised that only one I saw above mentioned Aurcana. I am heavily weighted in AUN because I believe they are poised for explosive growth. The combination of great fundamentals backing the rising price of silver and the fact that they are set to reopen the Shafter Silver mine in Texas is a combination for a strongly rising share price. They have added one of the world's leading geologists to there Board. They are held and recommended by Sprott. They recently got out of their silver stream arrangement with SLW (this was very good for them but they paid handsomely to get out). They have the LaNegra mine currently producing and generating income and that is now free of SLW's royalty payments.
As this board has never really been about mining picks, I've avoided posting my enthusiasm about this company. With the share price under a dollar, a small scale investor can accumulate shares of what I believe will be, yes I'm going to say it, the next First Majestic. Of course I strongly encourage that everyone do their own research. But I have put my money where my mouth is on this one and accumulated on dips (and unfortunately at a couple of tops) from .35 a share on this one. I hope others will at least do the research on AUN. I'm just an average Joe and I fully realize that my approach to concentrating 40% of my portfolio in one stock is risky. I can tolerate it.
Thanks again to all for sharing what I know is countless hours of research and information. Long live the Turd!
I've been through a number of miners and these have done me well. If I had to walk away for six months and not look at the account, I'd sleep well believing that they are all strong companies, with good management that will be able to produce income in the years to come.
Please check out the new post.
ReplyDeleteFISD
ReplyDeleteaurcana, yes indeed I likey that one too. Thx :)
FISD
ReplyDeleteI agree with you about aurcana and have held it for some time. But i am so far away from 40% its not close. Dedicating that much to a penny stock seems like a crapshoot.
I really hope you don't change the website too much. Making it faster would be fine, but bigger/more doodads/more contributors does not = better. One of the major strengths of this current blog is its simplicity IMO.
ReplyDeleteJust found this as a simple intro for those interested in Aurcana:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thebullandbear.com/bb-reporter/pdf/Aurcana.pdf
I do hold shares in this and am an average Joe.