Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Happy Tuesday

Its another Happy Tuesday!!!

As you're well aware, The EE rarely attacks on Tuesday as tonight is the weekly CoT survey. We've tried to document this for you on several occasions. Here's one such example from last December:
Today, of course, may turn out to be an exception due to the considerable chagrin that is pulsating through the offices of JPM this morning. If you haven't yet, I urge you to go back and watch this little gem from two weeks ago today. Turned out to be pretty accurate:
(I just watched it again. If you haven't taken the four minutes yet to do the same, you're missing out.)
The Evil Empire will fight, fight, fight to put a lid on things at $31.20 or so. However, any victory they achieve will be short lived as the fundos in silver are just so overwhelmingly strong that they will be forced to retreat yet again.

First of all, a recap of the effective yet simple TA you get here. Late yesterday I gave you this:
Now look at it this morning:
This is not "atta-boy, Turd" time. I show this to you to prove that you can do this yourself. You don't need some fancy, high-priced service. You don't need newsletters from the con artist Elliott spooks. You don't need some moronic, self-serving stockbroker. All you need are your eyes, your brain and a trust in your instincts. In other words you, too, can be Turd.

On to today, here's your silver chart. It tells you all you need to know:
Blythe and I are battling for supremacy. I will win the war but Blythe is still going to win some battles. As mentioned ad nauseam, you can bet your ass the EE is planning a raid somewhere around $31.20. Its a done deal. A pullback will probably take us back toward 30.25-30.50 but that should be it. Our next run to $31+ will not be repulsed and we will charge to new, post-1980 highs, somewhere between 33 and 35. I'll try to nail that down later and give you a firm target once we finally blast through and close above $31.20.

Gold remains a different matter. I mentioned earlier this month that it would probably take two trading weeks for gold to slog through 1360-1380 and that has certainly proven prescient. Now, a similar challenge awaits between 1380 and 1390. Take a look at this chart:
I'd expect the conquest of 1390 to take up to another two weeks but, from there, we'll see a quick move back to the old highs of 1425ish. Through there by mid-March and we'll be off and running toward my stated goal of $1600 by 6/10/11.

Have a great day. Enjoy Happy Tuesday but be on the lookout for the EE if/when silver crosses $31.

Almost every commodity is down today 1-2%. Crude is down, DrC is down 2%, soyas and wheat are down 2% but the PMs remain higher, even in the face of margin hike rumors. Why?
I believe the primary reason is that its Happy Tuesday. My warning to you is to be very careful post 1:30. Blythe has attacked on Tuesdays before but its almost always after the Comex closes. Do not be surprised to see several EE attacks on the Globex this afternoon.  A move down to new lows on the day, near 30.45, will be your sign that the raid has begun.
Watch closely as, if this happens, it will be a clue to book some short term profits in your miners, etfs etc.
Also, you really should read this: http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/daily-gold-chart-and-market-comments.html
More later.


  1. Thanks Turd. Pleas let me know when it is time to take profits. ;)

  2. Take profits at $87...anyhow, margin hike coming, word I'm hearing. Last raid, nothing left to do for B-diddy-lythe

  3. Another raid precisely 1 hour after the first around 9:20. How pathetic.

  4. if that's true then it just illustrates even more how god damn desperate they are. when the sharks smell blood in the water they start circling.

  5. i see a "high" of almost 31 on kitco.. must have scared the shit out of the poor bastards. lol

  6. Seems like Blythe didn't wait until >$31 and attacked now on Happy Tuesday. I have $30.61 here right now.

  7. Looks like we've got a shot to paint another FUBM...

  8. there must be a strong bid under gold... no FUTF on that chart.

  9. ...fubm -> FUTF

    I think we close over $31 today!

  10. A while ago you talked about 1.50 resistance increments, i.e 26.50 / 28.00 / 29.50 / 31.00

    TF, do you have any opinion about the 32.50 - 32.75 range yet and what might happen there?


  11. Big expansion in OI last Friday. Raids (albeit smallish) today.

    This week's COT report could be a doozy!

  12. SilverGoldSilver,

    What have you heard regarding the timing on a margin hike?


  13. Blythe "Dirty-Money" is sitting on a volcano. Silver to $37 by the summer.

    Flounder: Oh, boy, is this great!

  14. Anyone got a good silver miners ETF they like? I've got the GDX and GDXJ but nothing for silver...


  15. flaunt ... regarding *** projections of that london source *** ... remember the last one?

    *** Utter nonsence! ***

    KWN is nothing but a noise making machine.
    The louder and the more attraction the better.
    Just for the sheep.

    Again "up 150 in 5 weeks" - DEAD WRONG.

  16. Pick: It'll be somewhere up there. I'll look into it later today and give you some ideas.

  17. I think its pretty cool that both Lind-Waldock and Hallmark both advertise on my site.

  18. tekewin, "silver to $37 by summer" .... would that be summer in the southern hemisphere or northern hemisphere? Sorry, I couldn't resist

  19. There's a difference between projecting a price and stating a fact. Either they are planning to take delivery from SLV and GLD or they aren't.

    If you're calling them outright liars then just say so.

  20. Interesting take on the rumored margin increase, from our friend Wynter:

    "It has been reported by silvergoldsilver that he is hearing of a margin hike today. If this is true, then the Comex is trying to detect how many of the 60,000 plus March contract will be standing for drlivery in 7 trading days. If more than 10,000 contracts remain on the first day notice of delivery, then I am certain that silver will trade north of $40 within two days of that event.

    For now, the Comex will raise the marigin requirement to see how many of those contract holders have the intention of standing for delivery because at this point in time, if you do not have any intention of standing for delivery then you would sell the March contracts ratther than ante up more money on a position that you were going to roll out in a few more days. "


  21. Whoever WB, it's hard to argue with her logic.

  22. Whoever WB IS, I meant to say. I need to stop typing.

  23. This just in, Yahoo headlined news. South Caroline to push for separate gold/silver backed currency. It's gaining momentum!


  24. margin hike ... what about just placing a rumor about a rate hike - to see how it might eventually work?

    Silver spiked 30 cents lower.
    Gold couple of bucks.
    HUI a few points.

    A margin hike will do almost nothing - to the contrary, shortly after the announcement I would load the boat ever more.

    Just my 2 cents.

    flaunt: yes - I don't trust them. We all know what happened AFTER that call, gold peaked and corrected over 100 bucks. So the source is not trustworthy - another period.

  25. rumor about margin hike of course ... not rate hike .. but maybe that rumor might work .. hehe

  26. If you have intentions of rolling then why wouldn't you do so into a market that's in BACKWARDATION. You will have the same amount of contacts as before, and you would put some additinoal coin in your pocket.

    Also if there is a margin hike, rolling into another contract will still require more margin. The backwardation is not so severe that it will make a material difference in the amount of margin you are required to post.

  27. Chris,

    There are quite a few states with proposed legislation for dollar alternatives in the event of a complete failure of the greenback. I wrote a blog about it a couple of weeks ago.


  28. Though with some softs and copper on the weaker side today - reason to be careful.
    Softs not the first time signalling a margin increase ahead of the fact.

    Eventually after the close. Would hurt the most.

    Brent - a flag or a double top?

    Some breakouts across the board - and then after close "bang".

    But like Turd said - I think we are inside a new trading range in Gold and in Silver. All a margin increase can do is to bring us back to support of this new range.

    In that regard I would have sold ANYWAY inside the band 1378-1385 (already posted hours earlier in my blog) as there is MAJOR resistance - i.e. the right s of sSHSs. Or a silver triple top.

    So it doesn't matter much - margin hike or not.
    If your orders are placed.

    With just a small difference - I do not expect 1387 - I see 1385 the highest possible.
    Time will tell.

    Epic battle ... boy this is FUN!
    A pretty well organized armada against Blythe and JPM.

    A salute to our captain Turd!

  29. I have the distinct feeling that the asian parties to the OI at COMEX really don't give a flip about that "margin" issue.

    The "backward asians" are backing-up the Han shipping containers to the dry dock at COMEX and requesting delivery of all the gold and silver they got.

    Co-Mex is going to be Go-Han in a few weeks.

    We'll be seeing rice pushing over silver as the Han Dynasty decides to bank on silver and fuel on rice.

    And, let's face it people, do "they" really have a choice? The US debt ceiling issue is about 21 calendar days from implosion (according to Geithner's own letter) and those $UST's about to get a real chop-chop of their own.

    If you were sitting on UST's about get cut off at the knees, would you rather force delivery now, or just wait to get run over by the Hummer driven by Ber-crack?

    PIMCO and Bill Gross have already "put" their short in gear.

    I think it's obvious what's happening here.

    The mid-east nation-state instability is just a side-show for the international banking cartels which need a war to prop up the USD index.

    Well, it's not working. I see the USDX dropping back into the downwards trajectory and the precious metals moving up at the same time. We're back to the pre-QE2 implosion pattern and we're not even half way through POMO or QE2 today.

    It's all sort of a lovely algorithmic dance and someone flipped the software to prioritize the USDX trading function over the shorting on phantom precious metals that have never existed.

    How does it feel to dance with a phantom silver menace Ms. Masters?

    It must be a hard thing to put a finger on...sort of like margin calls that exist on paper, but don't have real value.

    Gee, how is that GSE paper file doing at WAMU-JPMC-Lehman-FDIC-WhiteHouse inc?

    The US Marine Corps should do the world a favor and should just be targetted on the MERS inventory of hard-signed mortgage notes. Oh gee, did Anonymous already take out that backup server? I guess that Marine (singular) would be pretty bored, seeing how there is NO mortgage note archive of signed paper and the banks had responsibility to hold that note.

    These paper traders are getting to be a joke. There isn't even a paper document in reality. It's all button-clicks, fewer than this blog post, moving binary "10010100" bytes, and being credited a few billion by the Bernank-rosoft-pad of the day.

    Get some real precious metals or shut up.

    Monster Box of 500 will be ordered if this thing drops below $29.

    If it goes back below $30, it's going to be 200 Canadian Maple Leaf Silvers.

    If it goes above $31, it's going to be 100 American Eagles.

    There will be no selling of any silver at this time and until silver reaches $100 per ounce at least.

    I smell the short of a silver run
    Be for real or be it paper
    I'll buy that silver for my bread.


  30. Had my buy order get triggered this morning. Might buy a bit on the FUTF dips. Will be waiting for a FUBM to propel us to 31+ and more buying.

    I found a place where I could get a silver graph going back from 80 to the present. Think they were monthly charts and weekly charts. I'll try to upload the charts tonite to my server and post a link to the graphs.

    After 31+, there's not much historical information for support/resistance for silver. The Hunt Brothers silver spike in the 80's didn't really last too long. According to Wikipedia, "silver hit 50 an ounce in Jan 1980 and then collapsed below 11 2 months later."

    Will be interested in Turd's and anyone else's take on support/resistance levels after 31+


  31. anyone seen the USDX above 80 ?




    White House Situation Room?

    All you guys and dolls are in the same "virtual" room anyway right?

    Fee-Fight Foe-Fumble
    I smell the short of a silver run
    Be it maple or be it eagle
    I'll buy that silver for my bread.

    Fee-Fight, Foe-Fumble
    I smell the pants of a Masterful run
    Be it GSE or be it CME
    I'll burn that paper for my silver

    Fee-Fight, Foe-Fumble
    I smell the reload of a Blytheful run
    Be it GLD or SLV
    I'll still burn that paper for my silver

    Have a nice day JPMC floor.

  32. Jason-
    It seems to me that the resistance in both the silver and gold charts are related to options and futures trading levels.

    If the EE sets their projected price at $20 intervals for gold, then at a 40:1 ratio, the $0.50 interval for silver makes sense.

    Even when the ME or Asian buyers step in, my view is that the much discussed silver-gold ratio will move in tandem. At this point, the asian buyers see silver as a good play and a good buy in USDollars.

    So, they're trading those UST's in FRN's for all the silver and gold in the USA. Nice job Bernank- to quote the Red October movie... "you arrogant ass, you've killed us!"

  33. $copper still dropping.... Turd, don´t we worried about that?

  34. Carlos, Carlos, we worry about everything,lol
    But we don't act on those worries.

  35. @Carlos-
    MaxKeiser et al began discussing the fact that JPMC began going long on Copper in 4th Quarter of 2010.

    With the attack on silver and consolidation of the higher silver and gold prices, my conjecture is that the copper is being liquidated in order to rotate the liquidity (cash FRNs) into resets of the silver and gold positions.

    JPMC has access to the printing press, but only on specific days.

  36. Hummm, I see. I was asking because $copper declines often preceded $silver declines. And since we are near the 31.21$ high, it may be time to have some profits and enter a little lower. Just an opinion.

  37. silver just refuses to go lower... another FUBM??

  38. Well I had heard that a few states were considering going to alternative currencies including Virginia. But to have it posted on a huge controlled media outlet like Yahoo, was just a little exciting. I think it will at least perk a few ears, and maybe get a few more people interested that otherwise are clueless or blinded by govt propaganda.

    Looks like one more minor pullback before we shoot through 31. I was stopped out on this mornings drawdown below yesterday's close.

    Very excited to see what Hecla Mining's quarterly earnings will do for my call options tomorrow!

  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

  40. Turd (and everyone else), two things I'm looking for feedback on:

    1) Marc Faber sees treasuries making a comeback over the next few months and says there could be a major pullback in gold, perhaps on the order of 20%. I think that's nonsense, but when Faber says something, I listen.

    2) If you look at today's charts especially, there have been fairly significant fluctuations in SLV but most of the other silver stocks haven't moved too much. Any comments on the recent changes in inventory in SLV?

  41. Harry,

    I think the correlation between the USDX and PM doesn't work like it used to. Even if USDX gets a boost up for whatever reason, I believe PM might get a tiny hit and that's it... because the fundo will remain the same as long as this system continues to exist. Plus more sheeples are waking up to the fact that PMs are the one and only "money" we've got left, not the FRN.

    We live in a wonderland where nothing makes sense.

  42. http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2011/02/exclusive-red-alert-email-between-metal.html What do you think about this?

  43. @Vedast- These types of rumors surface regularly, so I wouldn't worry about it. Actually, when I see articles like this I vacillate between thinking it is truly nothing, or wondering if it is deliberate scare tactic psy-ops from TPTB / JPM shills to frighten people away from PM's. And frankly even that 'take' on it probably gives this more credit than it is due.

    I see no way that PM's could be confiscated (at least here in the US), for many reasons- this FOFOA post is a good summary:


    People absolutely would not submit to any confiscation, it would be a political and public relations nightmare (what argument could be made for essentially robbing peaceful fellow citizens at gunpoint), and those proposing it would risk inciting serious and potentially violent opposition. I think they know this. Even the basic mechanics of searching 300 million people for the 20 million who own PM's, then searching each of thier houses, yards, etc. would be impossible. So no worries mate. Hoard at your leisure.

  44. Thanks for the link, Pining for the Fjords.

  45. Harry, Those comments about treasuries Faber made over a week ago now and he said they would be a good place to be over the next 10 days to 3 months. I wonder how that's worked out for him so far.

  46. I just posted a very important update to this thread.

  47. Re my update above: It would be very funny and quite telling is the PMs RALLY on the Globex this afternoon. It would be shades of the "Wynter Group" 8:25 am blastoff back on 2/8.
    Watch your screen VERY CLOSELY this afternoon.

  48. Vedast, I posted a quick analysis on this kinda confiscation scenario. To back up any "new world currency" you probably need 10,000 tons gold at least. US government may be able to shore up 5,000 at best so there's no way to confiscate the other 5,000 from the Public. There's simply not that much among the average Joes so there goes the purpose of confiscation unless someone goes hell-bent retard to pull a FDR V2.

  49. Sorry Turd, I gotta walk away. Too much paying attention leads to be getting nothing productive done :)

    Good luck!

  50. It is going to be damned exciting to see just how many contracts are standing for delivery for March. I wonder how accurate the mysterious Wynter's price target would be if 10,000+ contracts did stand for deliver?

  51. Love this blog and the sharing/comments.
    Thank-you so much Turd and Turdites!

    Silver target - intraday. Based on my A-B-C (trading) calculator Silver immediate near term target is $31.03/oz.

    A=$30.50; B=$30.92; C=$30.61. We're hanging around the day's midpoint pivot of $30.82/oz over the past 90 or so minutes. Let's see what Blythe has in store at $31.

    Good luck everyone!


  52. I read this. Does this estimation makes sence?

    "In an effort to clear up some recent confusion regarding my latest posting, I will try to explain what I have recently uncovered.

    JPM's current short silver position is estimated to be approximately 150 million ounces down from the recent 180 million ounces in August. The losses from these positions are easy to figure out. For every $10 rise in the price of silver, JPM will lose $1.5 billion.

    But what I have recently discovered is that through its derivative positions, JPM will lose about 5 times that amount ounce the price of silver is above $36. And ounce silver is above $45 dollars, JPM's losses will increase to 8 times the amount of losses in their short positions. The reason is that as the price of silver increases, certain provisions get activated which multiplies the losses.

    One reader asks the question why isnt the price of JPM going down to reflect the lossesd in silver. My answer is that the price of silver is not high enough to begin to trigger losses in their derivative positions. But once silver approaches this critical level say around $36, then you should begin to see the price of JPM stock begin to reflect these losses.

    In fact, traders are saying that once the price of silver surpasses the stock price of JPM, then for every dollar the price of silver go up, JPM should lose around 70 cents or so. This means that if silver hits $60, JPM will be a single digit stock.

    JPM market cap is around $170 billion. If silver losses are as great as $40 billion in cash , then JPM will be insolvent. Period."

    Link to this post:


  53. Hey! It's OEX week! 2nd most manipulated week of the month! The 1st most comes with a benron burnkio speak FOMC in it; along with OEX!! You can smell the call options in GLD/SLV to run the scared money out!! Not to speak of turning over call options in Mar crimex which the banksters don't want standing for delivery in the quantity there now!! Quick orchestrated raid in OEX week Tues night into Thurs morn is not uncommon! If I were still chasing paper profits? I'd be all over this quick orchestrated call options flush raid in silver to go long calls into March!!! What's a good buy stop? I don't know but turd does!! I know more volatile paper shuffling friends of mine are still waiting for the double top drop! 31-31.20 which they have not gotten for the take down; yet!! They won't go short/put side lest they see it,31, but they sure are salivating for Mar call options for any silver spot price under 29.75 to perhaps 28.50-29!! Just thinkin out loud if you want to play along with the manipulators to your advantage to paper fiat profits!!

  54. GKHovenier, Morgue's derivative book is in the size of 70+ trillions so in terms of loss these silver positions won't hit them hard. It's the implication on the Dollar that scares the heck out of Fed and Treasury.

  55. StrongSideJedi! Your fee fight foe fumble posts excellent! A privilege to read your market wisdom; along with turd and many other insightful's!!!! Bankster gangsters grinding our common folk bones to make the rat basturds bread!! GOTCHA loud & clear and drilling more holes in the bottom of the USS Financial Titanic is going to keep this econo disaster chit/ship afloat!! We need flood the financial titanic empty compartments, with more water/easy money & credit to save her! You US Citizens spend your way to prosperity by diving deeper into the water/easy money & debt so you may breath easier!! We need more minion drownings mounted in this economic disaster before we plow another depth defying debt, Marianna Trench to bury them all in!! Right!! You follow these gov goon idiots at the helm and you may as well reserve a financial watery tomb for your future!! USS Financial Titanic is going down! Better find a life boat quick!!

  56. @Pining for the Fjords and others. The FOFOA link was excellent, thanks. I have two footnotes to add:

    First, the "confiscation" was done by presidential order because there is no way, even then, that FDR could ever get such a think through congress. He could get away with it because there was an "emergency", he was "saving the nation", and he did it right on the heels of his successful "bank holiday", an because the idea was that US gold coins would no longer be legal tender, so many people actually were conned into thinking they should trade them in for paper dollars.

    Second point: Even with all that going for him only 20-25% of the gold was turned in for paper. There was no attempt to actually seek out and confiscate gold from individuals. In today's world, any effort to outlaw gold would be absurd.

    I think that, sooner or later, the USA will have to go back on a gold standard, which of course would require a traumatic devaluation of the dollar. At any rate, sometime in the not to distant future, some nation will go to a gold backed currency. Maybe it will be the Chinese, maybe the Russians, maybe the Canadians or Brazilians, but somebody will do it and others will follow suit. When that happens their currency will be sought out as both a refuge and a trading currency, just as the USD has been in the decades past. We may see Loonies or Pesos circulating in the USA, just as I saw USD and Deutschesmarks circulating in Bulgaria in 1994.

  57. BTW, we need to switch to TF's new thread!

  58. Do we have i consolidation in Silver between 30.70/30.80, to get strengh to move higher ?

  59. Old Navy..... Greetings from another old Brown-Water Navy!
    I thought this was the updated thread. BTW...silver still holding at 30.80/30.82 .

  60. I think metals are going to rock tomorrow

  61. Had to go out this morning to the doctor's...was too sick yesterday to buy more physical...feeling much better now, so hoping to see some sort of drop sometime...I HOPE!

    I'm reading through the earlier thread and some think there will be drop....any thoughts about that probability anymore as SI sits at 30.74???

    (I'm not that smart at this, so any update on this probability would be appreciated!)

    Although, tomorrow, CPI numbers come out.
    HOWEVER, just saw on CNBC....Epperson talking about BACKWARDATION in the silver market and the idea that inflation is on the minds of people. I nearly choked on my lunch when I heard the word BACKWARDATION on CNBC!!

    Also, driving home, the local guy who buys gold (He's been been marching around with the price of gold on a placard)....well,nobody out there with the gold price BUT a banner saying "WE BUY SILVER."

    Just a report from the front...

  62. lol they're slamming silver into the stock market close again. The stench of pathetic desperation is thick enough to knock you out.

  63. I put a "buy silver" ad on Craig's List locally. Just bought a 10oz Englehard bar from a guy for spot. Met him in my bank lobby where there are cameras. I like it! Secure, no shipping, silver in hand now.

  64. @old-swift-boat-vet

    You are right, it was an update, not a new thread.

    Greetings back at ya, too! I put in for swiftboat duty myself but didn't get it. I did get to pepper the Vietnamese coastline with 5" from Haiphong all the way around to Rach Gia while serving in DESRON 15 for two years.

  65. Turdle GG,

    Remember when I gave you the " Shh... it's $1372" answer to your Sinclair/Armstong inquiry.
    I guess Jimbo is now comfortable speaking directly to the issue.

  66. Let me introduce you to Droke if you have never read him. He is very influential and knowledgeable regarding the Kress cycles. If you don't know him then try and follow his reports.


  67. Pat: For the record, I am not the least bit concerned with Armstrong's 1372 nonsense.

  68. There are 3 very discrete places on today's silver chart where you can see someone got very, very nervous. For example, someone took a MASSIVE dump right at 10:15, then a slightly less massive one going into the lunch hour. You'd think they'd be a little less... I don't know, obvious? Someone is screaming to the world that they're deathly afraid of $31 silver.

  69. Presidential confiscations of PMs is not 1st on the list of gov goonzi blatant hit/thefts of citizens wealth!! It's the 6 trillion in deposits of private 401K's/IRA's!! The CONgress/SINate will absorb those asap while dollars still have buying power/value! Hardly trillions in PM's!! Get your hands on what dollars are rightfully yours before the banksters keep them in the rat basturds hands of greed!! Once so, your dividends will be Tbonds of fixed income, the government compels money managers to buy!! Gov bonds eventually as redeemable at 4cents on the dollar, or less; as compared to the 1913 dollar when the dead head fed central banksters began watering down our currency!! Those absorbed 6 trillion in private 401K/IRA funds get stuffed with treasury century bonds!! LOL!! ROTFL!!! hehehehehehehehe!

  70. Hah- neither is Santa or me.

  71. oldNavy...
    Cambodian border areas and Mekong Delta '67-'68
    Besides the 50s, we had 81mm, trigger fired mortar. Largest weaps I ever fired. That twin 50 is a blast!

    Dr Jerome...
    Great idea for purchase locally. Thanks for the tip.

  72. Just read a comment on a ZH thread that "Turd has delusions of grandeur because he says the he is battling Blythe for supremacy".
    What an idiot.
    I hope that, by now, all of you regular commenters are onto the odd nature of my sense of humor and the fact that arrogance is not one of my personality traits.

  73. Turd, you arrogant slut!
    TRE, SIL, SLW, RBY, GPL rockin the house!!!!

  74. LOL, Turd. You can't win. ...So..what ARE you exactly??? ...A one trick pony ..or someone whose talents know no limits.

    Ya can't win sometimes. Keep doing what you do. :]

  75. I junked that cretin on ZH. If you can't talk talk yourself up on your own blog what can you do? Nice work today TF. I BTFD'd on the ags today (my position there is pushing 50% of my PMs now).

  76. Strong close in the HUI today.
    Right at the critical 540 level. Looks good!
    I'll post more on this later today.

  77. Mick, go up this post and click on the link to Trader Dan and you'll end up buying even more.

  78. Turdski ....
    Not to worry, anyone with an I.Q. greater than room temp knows what you're saying!

  79. Turdle,
    The other day. No offense taken.
    So based on Agoldhamster projections of a possible $40 silver price in the near future any of you options gurus have any good suggestions to play it?

  80. Interesting, I appear to have had a post taken down, which was an article from today's FT re silver miners and the consequences of the reemergence of hedging for the silver price. I asked Turd for his thoughts. Removal of the post is I guess my answer. There will be no more posts.

    A shame if this blog becomes even more a one way blast of groupthink than Zerohedge sometimes...

  81. LC - Options on AGQ. Those suckers fly when silver gets randy.

  82. DS - Consequences are the bankruptcy of miners stupid enough to sell forward their silver at today's prices.

  83. Regarding CRIMEX open interest, I still remember what it was like before the big December delivery. OI was high first 2 weeks into November at 60+K. It then started to fall and quickly as it approached to the end to finish @ 5K+ sth. One theory was EE paid many investors off the table a premium to either close the contracts or roll them to the next delivery month. I'll be happy if this time around we get 8K+ contracts standing for March delivery.

  84. Sell OTM puts to finance OTM calls. Go to April, as March expires too soon.

    Of course the downside is a selloff will wipe you out. Literally.

    If you don't have margin, you need to just by a call spread. The highest strike in April SI is 3700.

    And boy oh boy are they expensive.

    If you can't trade options on futures, look at buying Mar 11 calls on SLV, expire third friday in March.

    March 35 SLV Calls are trading at .13 as of today's close.

  85. Dismal-

    Turd's blog, Turd's rules......frankly, I'm glad that he's policing his blog. I read ZH, but the endless bickering gets old. If you have a beef with Turd, why not contact him directly instead of attempting to turn it into a group debate?

    Just the opinion of a little bird with a big hat.

  86. afrum, scary but that is probably what will happen & the seeds were planted long ago. covers deficits I guess for a few years prolonging the game. I suspect a significant stock market crash is in the works to convince the public confiscation of 401/IRA's are necessary for the citizens' protection. Extend & pretend continues - don't know if it's the lust of power & control of politicians, necessity or a legitimate plan to screw over US citizens or all the above that serves as the incentive to confiscate but the end result/end game is a country in dependence.

    One thing I don't get about this global reset/revaluation talk - from a policy perspective, why do it in the next year or two when you can hold off for a significant # of yrs while continuing to devalue the currency to deal with all the costs associated with retiring baby boomers?

  87. Anyone else shocked by the strong movement in silver while only the NewZealand market is open, I have not seen this since I have been following silver.

    Thanks for the great blog Turd

  88. Dr. Jerome=very clever on your silver buy!! I met an older gentleman at a Mt Man Rendezvous, Ft. Bridger, Wy. last September! We talked economy and he said how difficult it was as a retired person to get necessities!! I told him it's not going to get better but worse!! Showed him a silver eagle I carry and said if I were in your situation, I'd go to every garage sale pronto and pick up anything with silver in it at bargain prices; pennies on the dollar!! I bet most AmeriCON'd haven't a clue of the silver spot price right now!! Hit every garage sale you can and get those silver bargains, before gas hits 5 a gallon this Summer!! Then everyone will be looking for the easy gold/silver bargains everywhere!! There will be none!!

  89. @kiwiquest07.com - am not interested in a group debate on taking down a post, I merely observed that it had happened. Slightly odd that there was no explanation.

    @flaunt - your comment that there can be only outcome from silver miner's reintroducing hedging means you didn't bother to think about potential selling pressure (no matter how short lived). The article does not advocate hedging anyway, it actually highlights the reasons why its generally bad news for holders of mining equities. Hence my surprise at it being taken down. It was not a bearish piece.

    Disclosure: long silver. Also short kneejerk reactions...

  90. Dismal Scientist: I didn't remove anything. You'd think that if I allow Agoldhamster to post here again, I'm going to instead delete you?
    Get over yourself and learn how to properly use a keyboard before you start accusing me of censorship.

  91. I love Trader Dan but what's up with the hummingbirds, peachie/pink hues and pink font? LOL.

  92. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/02/big-money-playah-hammered-phys-into.html

  93. Dearest Turd,I am not suprised that a guy battling for ultimate pm market supremacy uses censorship..;PPP lol!!

  94. Ok, Turd, still can't find the original which was here, so here it is again.


    Keep up the good work.

  95. Pat,
    yes, saw that, thanks. Whether it's nonsense or not all I know is I like the price in the $1,370s rather than the $1,360s.

    TRE looks good, but volume does not suggest any panicked short-covering yet.

  96. DS - I think your confusions stems from the fact that as Turd creates a new post, the comments on the previous post kind of get ignored. I believe your original post appears on this thread, final comment:


    If they are selling forward, then the selling pressure is on the back months, not the current front month. It could be responsible for the backwardation but just indicates how incredibly foolish it is for them to "hedge" so recklessly.

    BTW - Nobody around here tries to yell others down for their opinions, even when its contrary to what we'd like to see happen.

  97. Ed Steer has comments on FT's silver hedging story below:

    "The FT story implies the transactions were initiated by the mining companies. I think this is unlikely, there being a greater likelihood that it was initiated by one of the big commercials, such as JPMorgan. Bearing in mind these are forward transactions, they do not appear in the public domain, and can be completed at any price, giving the bullion bank the opportunity to do a very special deal with a nice fat premium for a possibly reluctant miner. And what better time to do this, when the price has fallen and there is uncertainty in the market."

    "So my guess is that it one of the Big Four [JPM?] covering its shorts, because there is no other way of doing so and the timing is opportune. Kind regards. Alasdair"

    Silver analyst Ted Butler and I had a very long conversation on the phone yesterday about this Financial Times story that reported on the 100 million ounces sold forward by the silver mining companies...and Ted agrees that Alasdair may have a point.

    The FT story is misleading in some respects, because it insinuates that all of these forward sales had just occurred during the first six weeks of 2011, when silver prices were at their peak...then heading lower. That was not the case at all, as most of these hedges were placed many months prior to the end of 2010.

    Of that 100 million ounces, the standout was the 70 million ounces sold forward by Mexican silver company Minera Frisco...in which Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has a huge position. These hedges were placed at $18.82 the ounce...and the last time we were that low in price, was back in the third week of August 2010...so that's probably when it happened.

    Not only did they sell forward a huge chunk of silver...but they also did it for gold, lead, zinc and copper. Silver and gold hedges run for three years...and the base metals for two.

    This is what Ted had to say about it in a note [headlined "Hedging Insanity"] to his subscribers yesterday..."I don't think I have ever seen such a dangerous hedge book [and I've seen plenty]. By my calculations, the company is already in the hole for upwards of $600 million on all its metal hedges...with silver accounting for $300 million of that total. Its additional exposure will be many times that amount if prices move higher, as they are expected to do."

    This sound exactly like what happened to Apex Silver many years back...and they ended up filing for bankruptcy. It's also similar to what happened to Ashanti Gold...and AngloGold had to come along and take it over because their hedge book had become toxic. And let's not forget a Canadian gold company called Cambior. As Ted went on to say..."The hedging experience [also] cost Barrick Gold $10 billion in total."

    Based on what happened to all four of these companies, I doubt that Minera Frisco will survive long enough to pay out its hedge book...and I also doubt that the owner [billionaire or not] will have deep enough pockets to cover his company's ever-increasing losses.

    Well, dear reader, I wonder what bullion banks were the ones that did the deals on all these forward sales? Without doubt, virtually every ounce was hedged in the OTC market...so all this happened without causing a ripple in the silver price. I would bet a fair amount of coin that Alasdair is right on the money. This reeks of JPMorgan. As Ted Butler pointed out, the Minera Frisco deal alone is equivalent to 14,000 Comex contracts that JPMorgan might possibly have been able to cover in the OTC market. Stay tuned!

  98. Dismal: please be sure to read flaunt's comment above.

  99. RUI

    Thanks for answering my question earlier today.

  100. Rui, fantastic information, thanks a million. This is the reason I come here. Yesterday I tried to have a discussion with my wife about PM’s, I gave up when I realized that she thought tungsten was what the kids in town were smoking.

  101. Within the bounds of risk tolerance, portfolio diversification, yada, yada, yada, I'm pretty much ALL IN now. So, Turd, just in case you ARE an all powerful genie, I wish for no more dips please. No need for any more buying opportunities. Thx

  102. Sorry, Eric, I sold my AGQ today (couldn't resist finally getting my Vegas Money account into the black for the year), and so I'm hoping for a huge "Wednesday Witch" beatdown....AGQ at about 140 would be nice...if only for 15 minutes or so....and then a nice FUBM to finish the day.

    Kiwi (a little bird with big dreams)

  103. I'll work on it, Eric, but it may be best if you take a few days vacation beginning the second silver hits $31.20.

  104. Harvey has posted early today

    "The total silver comex open interest shook the bankers to no end as the reading today came in at 147,465 for a monstrous gain of 4965 contracts. If you exclude the non economic spreaders who basically left silver a while ago, we are now at record levels. In oz, the open interest represents 737 million oz of silver or greater than 103% of annual silver production. This is totally unheard of and this is presenting our commissioners with a dual headache. The high open interest in silver and the decline in volume in gold. It seems that players do not want to enter the gold market due to its rigged nature. On the other side we have many wish to take on the bankers in silver which is a lower market cap as compared to gold."

    "The front options expiry month of February saw the open interest surprisingly rise from 86 to 121. It looks like more players are trying to get their hands on the last remaining oz of silver. All eyes are on the front month of March and to the shock of the bankers, the open interest ROSE by 483 contracts instead of falling or rolling over to the next delivery month. The open interest for the front delivery month remains resolute at 61,720 contracts. Midnight Oil night for our bankers tonight. Expect a raid again. Remember that options expiry for gold shares is this Friday night and they always raid going into options expiry!

    The estimated volume at the silver comex is very surprising. The estimated volume today is 47,206.
    The confirmed volume yesterday was very good at 66,810 contracts."


  105. caramel! Paper fiat, backed by thin air promises of lying politicians has a 40 year cycle! The reserve currency, dollar, is up August 15, 2011! 40 years from when tricky dick nixon, took us officially off the gold standard, August 15, 1971! This is the great Keynesian experiment turds blog is built upon!! The experiment is a failure and horses have run out of the burning barn; Fall '08! You think the dead head fed goons corralled the horses or the HP engine of this dying Keynesian paper ponzi experiment hasn't exploded, imploded, or otherwise is vaporizing daily? Here's your sign!! ............................no disrespect but a year from now, a 20 dollar benron burnokio buck, will not buy you more food, energy, or services within AmeriCON'd!! The dollar will be so watered down in devaluation by then, or it just may be a hiss and bye word from our AmeriCON'd english language!!

  106. Turd
    I understand. In a perfect world, I'd just stay away from my computer for about 3-4 months and only then check on all my stuff. I'm sure I'd be pretty happy. But then, it's not a perfect world, and on the first down day there's that little devil on my shoulder saying DUMP 'EM!! THEY'RE GOING TO ZERO!!! I need the strength to ignore that stuff.

  107. Turd,
    Seriously though, I did pick up a boatload of SLW at around $30 during the dip based pretty much on the guidance and camraderie of you and the other good folks on this board. I suppose a sensible person would take some of that off pretty soon.

  108. Ed Steer's free daily email available here:

    I read Ed, Harvey, KWN, Butler, ZH, J.Willie, Santa and so on. None of them can be 100% accurate (understandably) but after a while you get a feel for getting sth useful from each source and to piece together a broad picture. On the flip side, it's hard to focus on your work after reading too much around. :-)

  109. Great article on jr miners ....


  110. Hey! I just wanted to draw your attention to grains. WTF? And rice opening lower and down 57 points as of now. Didn't ZH say it would go up once some leaves were shaken? Is this current selloff the one mentioned by ZH?

    I was considering opening a position in rice, but at this stage I don't know if they will short grains to avoid more uprisings in the Middle East.

    Thanks guys. Comments appreciated.

  111. WineGuy,
    thanks very much for that midasletter. Would be interesting to have a portfolio of all 10 of those, a kind of silver equivalent of GDXJ.
    Is there already an ETF that holds a portfolio like this?

  112. Didn't see anything on the CME site but give 'em time. I'm sure there will be plenty more going forward as they make every last desperate attempt to force people out of their holdings.

  113. Rui, I also find the essays and videos at the Gold Money Foundation to be good, just watched a video interview with Hugo Salinas Price from the 15th of February. General information, but informative none the less. Price does make me think about a monetary role for silver...

  114. SIL is the ETF that has the silver miners. It's only gone up 4.95% this past month. SLW is up 15%, SVM is up 18%

  115. GG
    The only silver miners etf I know of is SIL. Here's the holdings.


  116. Thanks very much Eric and Jayhawk. Have got plenty of SIL. Suppose a junior SIL will have to wait until SIL gets a lot bigger.

    Yes, SIL has been lagging a bit.

  117. I just realized on that article, the names of the stocks are actually links to charts and info on the stocks. Pretty handy.

  118. This is the message Wynter left on another message board. Several guys figured out where it was and I asked was it if was OK to post it so here it is. There is a further comment I suggest you guys read in case you are thinking of going balls to the wall and it makes references what I wrote on my blog. I'll post the other stuff there just to keep it all in one place for easy reading.

    "Per the request of Louis Cypher over at the Turd's blog, this is WB posting under the moniker of The Leader. This is to lay down the foundation of what will happen as sil breaks $31.

    The key word is "supernova". We have something very special in store for BM when we break sil to new highs.

    On another note, didnt you find it strange that sil broke out precisely and I mean precisely at 8:25 am est on Feb 8, the exact time when BM always slammed sil down? Only "Cris" on Turd's blog caught that. It was our way of telling BM that we too can play that game.

    Since you want proof, here it is.

    The timing can not be determined precisely this time around due to logistics involved (but it should be in less than 5 days), but we have something special to demonstrate to BM and all the naysayers when sil goes over $31.

    Remember, the word is "supernova" and you heard it here first!!"

  119. This is an interesting blog post. At the end he talks a bit about outsized gains in silver in short time frames and has some charts to prove that they do occur.


  120. Ooops
    is my place for ranting.

  121. THanks Louis Cypher. Read your post at your blog.
    This part is a bit strange:
    "I can say that once we break $31, it is our intention to drive the price as far away from the old highs as possible and hold it there as we approach $31. "
    Does that mean take the way above $31?

  122. I meant to ask:
    Does that mean take the PRICE way above $31?

  123. Blythe, in case your reading this, keep one thing in mind. My great-grandmother used to say, “Supernova’s are never as … wait. What I mean to say is it could be worse. Look at me – my wife just left me for my local PM dealer… god, I miss him.

  124. I'll assume he meant $41 as the place to push price to. If these guys are for real. (And I mean guys as there is more than one writer here.)
    Then they are playing a game where the rules can change very quickly and/or they are forced or decide to take the opposite trade and go short. They are going to do whatever makes the most sense for them. Beating Blythe is a small part of their motivation. If they pull it off it will scare the crap out of all the pilot fish hanging out with the big shark.

  125. -- I can say that once we break $31, it is our intention to drive the price as far away from the old highs as possible and hold it there as we approach $31.

    A supernova first collapses before it explodes...

  126. I've linked to one helluva chart... perhaps a silver "supernova" could ignite a S&P reversal:


  127. Another small post related to silver backwardation.

    "Put it together. The interest differential is 4.61% in favor of Australia. Note the swaps are at a discount, meaning the left side (bid) is lower than the right side (offer). The forward Aussie discount is equal to the interest differential. Take the mid point of the swap (.0453) and divide it by the spot (.9965) and you get 4.50%. (the 11bp is spreads, ‘noise’ and basis risk differentials.)

    Conclusion you can take to the bank: The forward price is equal to the interest differential. Simple.

    Okay, with that in mind look at silver today. The futures price is trading to a discount to the cash price. Go back to my example for the AUDUSD. For silver to be backward it MUST mean that the cost to borrow silver is GREATER than the cost to borrow dollars. This is one of those ‘red flags’.

    My conclusion? There is a shortage of the physical metal. Blame it on whoever you like. The Mint, the JP Morg, underwater producers. There are dozens of suspects to consider. Either way, it’s bullish for the price."


  128. @Martijn-

    All supernovae are not equal.

    The issue is the mass of the star prior to the novae.

    With the really massive stars, the core goes through a series of collapses which have increasing nuclear fusion reactions building to an iron core inside the star.

    With smaller stars, the fusion reaction overtakes the star and the star explodes outwards at a massive rate.

    Regardless, I get your meaning. I just thought I would chime in with a pointer to wiki.


    Now, returning to Wynter's comments...

    The post earlier today is very thought provoking.

    I can not believe that JPMC is the only bank short on precious metals. Is there some reason Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are overlooked?

  129. @Andrew -
    Your chart is interesting!

    chart "$GOLD:$SPX" at stockcharts.
    This chart plots gold price against the SP500.
    I find it interesting because the number 1 is a hovering point for the TA on this ratio.

    now look at "JPM:$SILVER"
    There has been a steady erosion in the share price of JPM Chase shares versus Silver.

    The peak came in October 2008 at a ratio of 4.25 shares of JPM to 1 ounce of silver.

    But, now, it's 1.5 shares to one ounce of silver.

    No wonder Blythe is looking for silver.

    When the other traders left in the summer, JPM Chase has been losing against silver.

  130. Um..has anyone seen/discussed the 2002 article from Charles Savoie on the "Silver Supernova"? Is it really from 2002? And his 2004 PILGRIMS artcle too? Is Savoie Wynter? Are we being played or is this realy playing out, now?

  131. djiifky,
    No, but it sounds interesting. I don't think these guy are any older than mid 40's and youngest mid twenties just based on their "voice" or writing styles.

    Wynter just added another comment BTW.

    "Please listen to LC and please do your own due diligence. I am here to outline what we believe is the short term direction of paper silver. It is our opinion that paper silver will go up by a lot from now until March 1.

    We are positioned that way. The only way that we might be "thwarted" is if the counterparty is actually able to deliver physical silver. But then again, that is not really being thwarted now is it?

    We believe that silver will be multiples higher than where it is right now therefore we are very comfortable potentially taking posession of physical silver or a "cash settlement". In our opinion, we win either way. That is why we are encouraging fellow investors to take physical silver. We do not see how you can lose money if you buy physical silver at $30 or even $35 or so. If you decide to play the paper game, whether through options, slv, or other instruments, please make sure you leave yourselves a cushion to purchase physical silver should the paper silver price go down.

    The next few days should be very exciting as the noose is tightening around the comex. Let's see if the price of paper silver react the way that we have anticipated.

    Please be diligent and only risk a moderate amount should you decide to play the paper silver game."

    Translation: Don't be idiots and go all in save some dry powder for later. When you go to vegas or the comex only bring what you can afford to lose.

  132. SVM question,

    I forget where I read this, but I seem to recall Silvercorp is the lowest-cost silver miner in the world.

    Currently the only individual stocks I own are SLW (natch), and AG.

    I'm looking at adding EXK and SVM to round out my basket of individuals. (most of my portfolio is AGQ)

    Comments? I mean, is a basket of 4-5 studs really any more risky than SIL?

  133. I have prepared your overnight thread and it is ready for viewing.

  134. A few days ago I posted a short list of the things I really like about this blog. I left off MELODRAMA!

    Two things that bother me about WB are (1) "her" use of the title "The Leader" (and "the group")it sounds like an adolescent who has seen too many science fiction rebels vs the evil empire movies and (2) why doesn't "she" proofread her posts, if she considers her messages important?

    Oh well. I think it's safe to say we're all interested in what happens when silver breaks above 31, WB or no WB...

  135. Yes SVM has the lowest cost b/c I vaguely remember that they somehow have a pile of lead or zinc to offset their silver mining cost. I no longer remember the details but it's sth like that.

  136. Im a newbie here, lurking for the last couple of weeks picking up PM on Turds Dips. I can't stay away. Also picked up 700 shares of Great Panther. I think I'll skip the paper and double down on the Jr Miners; Thank you for the midasletter link on the Jr Miners Wineguy...big help. More PM too.

    Thank you TF and all of the posters here...the education is priceless.

  137. "why doesn't "she" proofread her posts, if she considers her messages important?"

    I don't think English is their first language.

  138. Stan, I agree with you. What the frik does this mean?

    "I can say that once we break $31, it is our intention to drive the price as far away from the old highs as possible and hold it there as we approach $31."

    Once the price breaks $31, you can't push it as far away from the old highs ($31 or $50) as possible while simultaneously approaching $31.

  139. Dismal Scientist,
    I believe blogspot has some internal logic to flag comments as spam if they contain links and relatively too few words.
    Just try to type more text and reduce the number of links in case there is more than one.

    Turd doesn't censor - the disappearing comment happened to me, too.

  140. please. there are three people perusing this site. the rest are turds own comments