Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Lots Of Smoke

As the old saying goes..."where there's smoke there's fire".  I'm not quite ready to ring the alarm bells yet but there certainly is a lot of smoke. A lot of smoke.

For new readers, the topic of Comex cash settlement was discussed here back in December. I never wrote a full note on the subject but it was mentioned in the comments several times. Harvey was claiming then that the Comex settlement numbers didn't add up and that they had to be settling in cash, instead, and to get contract holders to take the cash, the Comex had to be paying a premium on top of the price. I was adamant at the time that this, if true, was setting a very dangerous precedent. Why? It's simple. If you are a big hedge fund and you just got a 10% or 20% premium to settle a handful of contracts in cash, why wouldn't you stand for delivery for 10X that amount of contracts in March? Shit, why not 100X? As long as the physical situation didn't improve, its free money, right? Sure it is!

I tell you this for one reason: I am not this "Benton" person. I have absolutely zero idea if "Benton" has any credibility, whatsoever. What I do know is that "Benton" has claimed for some time now that a consortium of hedge funds would stand for delivery in March...expecting the same, huge settlement premium when the Comex fails to deliver. "Benton" has always said that it would all begin on February 8. Hmmm....lots and lots of smoke.

OK, let's look at the charts because they're pretty friendly. First up, here's an 18-hour gold. Again, there's zero significance to the 18-hour period. I only chose it because it fits the space pretty well.
At the risk of sounding like I'm "moving the goalposts", you can see that there's some tough sledding ahead between 1370 and 1390. I've been saying 1360-80.
At any rate, the close today above 1365 was very important and now we just have to slog through some selling up toward the 1390 level. Beyond there, we'll run back toward the old highs pretty quick.

Now, silver is clearly where the excitement is. First of all, take a look at this 12-hour chart:
And now, without further ado, take a look at the 5-minute chart:
Please take this for what its worth...but this looks like someone or something was accumulating silver all day on the Comex. Does this support "Benton's" info? Yes. Does that mean anything? No.

Closing above $30 in silver got the attention of Trader Dan, as well, and I highly encourage you to read his latest entry by clicking here:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/todays-daily-commentary-and-chart.html

Lastly, before we get carried away, remember these two things:
1) Blythe always attacks just when things look the most rosy. She has to because, if she didn't, price could get away from her real fast. If she doesn't attack soon, we'll be able to make even more assumptions about the causes of today's rally.
2) Today is Tuesday...also known as Happy Tuesday. Why? The EE is reluctant to add fresh shorts on Tuesdays because the Commitment of Traders survey is this afternoon. They often wait until Wednesday to attack so that they have a full week to cover their tracks. Read more here:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

Let's keep a very close eye on the trading this evening and the overnight.
Its certainly an exciting time to be in the PMs! TF


9:00 EST UPDATE:
Just wanted to elaborate on a thought from earlier.
If "Benton" is for real and this rally today is related to his/her posts, you'd expect profit-taking tonight. As shown above, the "Swiss Stair" occurred on the COMEX today. The Benton theory is that the hedge funds will buy COMEX silver futures and demand cash + premium at settlement. It would seem logical then that today's rally would end when COMEX trading ended. It would not extend into the overnight. This is what we've seen so far. It Benton is to be believed, the rally will re-commence when the COMEX reopens tomorrow morning. This would seem to be a rather critical "tell", if you will. Tonight's giveback of 30 cents or so only seems to support the Benton theory. Let's see what the am holds.
Also, per the request of yours truly, TraderDan has drawn up a couple of silver charts. I suggest that you take a look. On his new blog, he also has a HUI chart for your review.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-chart-12-hour-and-weekly-charts.html
The sgs blog has an interesting take, too. They also expect some type of EE raid tomorrow:
http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/2011/02/silver-vaults-empty-end-game-nearing-or.html
You might want to read this, too, from Santa:
http://jsmineset.com/2011/02/08/jims-mailbox-641/

I'll keep an eye on things and will update later if necessary. Get some rest. Tomorrow promises to be a very interesting day. Turd out.

110 comments:

  1. Cris, posting my reply here in case you don't see it in the other thread. I know these comments have a way of getting ignored as soon as a new post shows up.

    If they sell a contract at $25 then they get $25 bucks per ounce at delivery. If they bought the physical at $20 and deliver it then they would make money on the physical, but not off of the contract itself. A short seller wants the price of the underlying to decrease in value so they can cover at a lower price or let the contract expire.

    This site has some basic info about how futures work: http://about.ag/futures.htm

    I think what Benton was saying is that if they allow the price to rise, then they're making it more expensive for funds to purchase contracts and thus harder to raid JPM's physical stores. And if they were to crush the paper price even further, and funds stood for delivery anyway, then JPM would have to give up their physical silver for less than they paid. In other words, if JPM acquired physical for $26/oz and they continued shorting down to $20, then some fund bought paper at $20 and stood for delivery, JPM would lose $6 on their physical as well as the physical itself which is highly valuable.

    Hope that makes sense.

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  2. Don't believe wynston, that's fine. How about you believe me then?

    This is bigger than you think. Turd go back and look at the post I gave a while ago. We are a group that wants to bring back the pain that the banks have given all of us.

    Some people here say that they would be interested if price fell. That is exactly wrong. Price of silver in fiat will NOT fall. Why? Because Blythe needs to get price up hoping to have some standing sell in a "bubble" market. But its not and price will rise. There will be $36 by end of Feb.

    This is a financial war now. No turning back.
    Good luck. I post no more.
    Go buy physical or you will regret it.

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  3. My physical is not standing for delivery.......its delivered. In fact two loads brought home by the wife this afternoon. So let them hit the hell out of silver tomorrow. I took some SLW GFI and SSRI off the table. I'll just reload that paper trade. My core is still relatively large and I will trade around it. gl to those that don't own physical.

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  4. Turd I noticed that stair pattern today as well, but I didn't know it was called the "Swiss Stair." What is the significance other than the obviously strong price movement?

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  5. Stuey's tone sounds intense...

    But I can't say hes far off...

    I also noticed the stair pattern, interesting to see what it does on the Asian Market tonight and tomorrow at the open...

    I guess somebody already knows... but until it happens its all speculation for us "regular" people who are left figuring out this clusterfuck that has been forced upon us...

    Stuey is right in saying..

    Buy physical silver before you regret it...
    -
    Scott J

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  6. It's rather refreshing to see people stand up, organize and take on the manipulating bastards head on until they are put away for good.

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  7. The silver physical market is very tight. But if/when the price goes to $50 or so in March, metal will flow back on the market. My guess is that within 6 months, metal will be ass tight again. Then...the final squeeze can begin...around the fall. But if COMEX defaults in March or May, all bets are off.

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  8. With the large number of us now here - can we now be labeled a Turd World Country??

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. "
    I think what Benton was saying is that if they allow the price to rise, then they're making it more expensive for funds to purchase contracts and thus harder to raid JPM's physical stores. And if they were to crush the paper price even further, and funds stood for delivery anyway, then JPM would have to give up their physical silver for less than they paid. In other words, if JPM acquired physical for $26/oz and they continued shorting down to $20, then some fund bought paper at $20 and stood for delivery, JPM would lose $6 on their physical as well as the physical itself which is highly valuable."

    This wouldn't make sense as- according to the concerns- JPM has many times the amount of paper shorts than they do silver to deliver (otherwise there wouldn't be a problem). They could realistically make 10x-100x more on their shorts than they would lose on their silver purchases if silver was driven down to $20 an ounce. This would be a nice cushion for them to buy up a lot of physical silver- even if they had to delay delivery and pay a penalty for that.

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  11. It depends on how underwater their shorts are. If they put on their shorts at $19 then $20 isn't going to make them a dime. I think they would be much more concerned about being caught empty handed on delivery day and having many more contract holders who bought in at $20 than would have been able to buy at $40. But what the hell do I know, I'm just an observer.

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  12. What a stunning 5-day rally its been. It has bull market written all over it.

    Now from a realistic point of view, lets see what the short-medium term bears can achieve with the downside once they gain control around these key downtrend resistance levels.

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  13. If Benton is right, then this could become quite the fireworks show leading up to March 1st.

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  14. Flaunt,

    Thanks for the education. I will echo pining's coments that this is just a tremendous site in that people offer insight in such a gracious manner.

    I think I spoke imprecisely in that I meant to suggest that JPM would be buying physical at $25-28 and then selling at $40 to those standing for delivery. I said "selling contracts" and inadvertently conflated the selling of contracts with the buying of physical. I think I did that bc I was getting ready to put forward Benton's old post.

    Regardless, I think the reasoning stands. JPM could have accumulated lots of physical in January while prices were lower in the hopes of getting a lot more fiat in return if they were forced to deliver in March.

    The underlying point is the one I have put my belief into right now -- prices WILL BE MUCH HIGHER come Feb 28. Who know what happens March 2?

    As has been said, we WILL find out. Seems to me a better bet than the Packers...

    Interesting times...

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  15. @Joseph: I prefer the Turd World Order

    Here is an example of a swiss stair chart as mentioned by Turd back in october.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/midas-topfinder-gold-suggests-bernankes-bazooka-now-baked-price

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  16. Great post...keep up the hard work as it is greatly appreciated. Turd, would you care to comment on the possibility of JPM taking gold as collateral so they (JPM) can use these gold deposits to cover other areas/demands. Also, won't these deposits also find their way into the inventories available for lease and then be double counted...even though it is owned by a client? This is all theory on my part right now, but seems plausible.

    JC out

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  17. Asian Market has been positively comatose for about the past week. I really expected it to perk up this week after the Chinese New Year, but so far it hasn't.

    Any speculation on what's going on there and if/when we should see things pick back up?

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  18. Turd, thanks again. You are the voice of experience and reason on days of excitement like today and dark days like a month ago.

    As a trader who has made and lost millions for a now-defunct Wall Street investment bank, let me make this observation about Benton: a pissed-off former employee is a dangerous person. Even if such person does not have as much power or ability as they think they do, they may well be capable of causing trouble for a little while.

    But we all need to remember: the EE makes the rules and the the EE can change the rules. Whenever they want.

    So, if you're a trader, remember the 3 key rules:
    1. Don't lose money
    2. Don't be a pig
    3. Ride the trend to the end

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  19. @ Martijn:

    At the end of the previous thread you said "Back then we were haunted on the Yahoo boards by FearVisciousRaptor. I think he was a trader at JPM shorting the shit out of DRD and others. There's always something in the way these guys are communicating on these forums. Cryptic, freaky and just weird."

    Could you elaborate on this a little? Are you fairly sure that big traders / JPM minions actually post in this way? I ask because one of the issues I have with the Wynter Benton thing is that I consider it very unlikely that true movers and shakers would actually post that way on online forums... perhaps I am wrong. Any insight or speculation would be appreciated- Thanks!

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. When is the March Delivery? Anyone loading up on Out of the money SLV or SLW?

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  22. Is there a link to this "Benton" guys predictions?

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  23. Mike,

    http://search.messages.yahoo.com/search?.mbintl=finance&q=wynter_benton&action=Search&r=Huiz75WdCYfD_KCA2Dc-&within=author&within=tm

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  24. I picked up a few SLW march 32 calls a few days ago - looking good so far. Psychologically hard to get more now, but maybe I should - March 36's?

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  25. I don't think they would go about acquiring physical unless they already had some March contracts to cover or unless they were planning on shorting some more paper. I think that's why Benton said that they would take it as a sign that JPM is low on physical if the price goes up, because if they have plenty of physical to cover their shorts, then they can technically keep shorting in order to keep a lid on the price in this delivery month, after which time shorting paper with impunity won't entail immediate delivery risks. On the other hand, if prices rise that means JPM is either unable or unwilling to deliver additional physical in March.

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  26. I've made some money on a bunch of SLV Jan 2012 35 calls, and I have a few April 2011 35's (which don't look too healthy right now).

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  27. "I think I spoke imprecisely in that I meant to suggest that JPM would be buying physical at $25-28 and then selling at $40 to those standing for delivery. I said "selling contracts" and inadvertently conflated the selling of contracts with the buying of physical. I think I did that bc I was getting ready to put forward Benton's old post.

    Regardless, I think the reasoning stands. JPM could have accumulated lots of physical in January while prices were lower in the hopes of getting a lot more fiat in return if they were forced to deliver in March"

    The issue is that it would be almost impossible for JPM to buy that much physical without driving prices higher. They could do it by shorting the hell out of silver but then they still lose money.

    This is why you need central bank help to manipulate a market. You need either a massive source of metal to cover shorts with if necessary or you need a loser of last resort.

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  28. There's been some speculation at the drop in SLV's inventory (when silver is going up!!) and some think it's maybe the Chinese buying, and then cashing in their SLV certificates and thus taking delivery of silver without going through COMEX or the markets - sort of a dark pool thing - it could be that JPM has been picking up silver that way though - buying without pushing the price...

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  29. Justin, if you're going to get into SLV options realize that March SLV expiration is different from March contract expiration on the Comex. The settlement date for Comex is four days before the end of the month, so at the end of Feb for Mar delivery while the SLV options are alive until the 3rd Friday in Mar.

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  30. tom - Unfortunately for JPM, the Fed doesn't horde silver.

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  31. Excellent commentary turd, it's very much appreciated.

    New kilo rounds arrived today. Gonna call them "Turd's Bottoms".

    What comes to mind about the "Benton" case - why would anyone start accumulating on a Lucky Tuesday? Why not on a Frickin Friday?

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  32. TRE- Santa's baby. So much good news coming out this year, maybe a lot before the annual stockholders Feb22. Plus, the short interest is $6M shares or 13.5 days, ONE ENTITY, and they have him in their sites.
    Much more, you can glean a lot at the website

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  33. I trade SLV options, junior miners and gold futures and I will back up Turd's thoughts on higher volatility.

    If you look at the the SLV chart, the high was set at the open Dec 7 and Jan 3, the takedown happened immediately. Not calling anything, just be ready to react to price.

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  34. Thanx Flaunt!
    One more question, any ideas on what would be the most explosive stock if Silver went way up?
    Disclaimer to SEC: I am an adult I can lose money because I am actually a taxpayer

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  35. The other "Wynter Benton":
    http://forum.myredbook.com/cgi-bin/dcforum2/dcboard.pl?az=show_thread&om=19037&forum=DCForumID11&viewmode=all

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  36. Kiyote- I would SO buy a t-shirt with that. Have your people talk to Turd's people and get it done when the new site comes online. Inspired work!

    Just think of the possibilities- an entire line of Turd-themed merch. Turd shirts, Turd placemats, Turd tea cozy... you know if you saw a Turd coffee mug with "Turd says FUBM" you would be tempted. Its OK, you can admit it.

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  37. Pat, sounds like you know a bit about the short position in TRE. Where do you get that info?

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  38. Martijn--

    Ahhh, Bema Gold! I remember that one! Made a pile on it back in about 1996. The Cerro Casale discovery I believe. That thing is still undeveloped to this day but I don't care. I got mine.

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  39. Justin,

    AGQ is a double lever against the silver spot price...so if silver spot goes up 5% then AGQ goes up 10%

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  40. @Pining for the Fjords

    I tried to do an advanced search on him on the Yahoo boards. All historic messages seem to be gone. At some point DROOY was changed to DRDGOLD which might have caused this.. I'll see if I can find anything.

    If you google his nick you see a rather meaningless (but recent) message from someone with that same nick on the Hecla forum. Another guy also remembers this nick. He said:

    fearvisciousraptor-----> Another paid shill from the JP Morgan anti gold and silver Cabal

    Could be that meanwhile someone else registered this nick.

    I'm sure they were/are active on these boards (and probably other boards as well), however I cannot prove it. I will never forget their weird style of 'communicating'. Different from the way shorters usually bash stocks. It was deeper and more cryptic.They created some kind of character around each nick. It was both sick and clever..

    Ow well, it would probably have been more interesting if someone else remembered as well.

    But it makes me very cautious. It would be awesome if all plays out the way we are all hoping for but it is unwise to underestimate these inhumane forces.

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  41. @Eric you are not by any means mr. Hommelberg are you?

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  42. Buy silver, Ishit, and Chevy Volts bitchez. Don't say I didn't warn ya!

    http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2011/02/its-on-like-donkey-kong.html

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  43. Thanks Fjord... or is it FNORD?

    Fnord is the typographic representation of disinformation or irrelevant information intending to misdirect, with the implication of a worldwide conspiracy.

    Actually I can't take any credit for the design.
    I did it using:
    Obamaicon.me


    Peace out!

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  44. stuey ... some took already weeks earlier the time to properly research the posts posted by "Lady Wynter" - and thereafter silently joined the group.
    Thanks for sharing!

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  45. Martijn- thanks for the info, and your note of caution is well taken. The EE is unfair, underhanded, and not dead by a long shot.

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  46. kiyotei,

    Count me in on the (T for Turd)- Shirt, too
    So what if the Turd lost a little in Vegas; sounds like he had fun and bet the right team

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  47. stuey,
    are you able to reproduce your earlier message to Turd?

    Or, is someone else able to find it, in case stuey posts no more

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  48. Sold my small AGQ (trading) position at the close on FUBM Tuesday.

    Looking for a FUTF re-entry on Wicked Witch Wednesday.

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  49. Turdle ... http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/continued-frustration.html?showComment=1296159097520#c2244721905986335839

    It's a matter of (not available, in size) physical. You have the signs all over the place.
    At some point the door will be closed.

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  50. Thanks hamster,
    so your view is that physical is running out and the comex is doomed?

    Benton is for real?

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  51. Turdle GG,

    Market Sniper aka Dutch, who hangs out at Slope of Hope, put his own money into going to Tanzania, hired a geological eng, and has a lot of connections for info as well. He shares his deep DD and has been going so since I got into TRE months and months ago. He has called the shots so accurately, well, the man does his homework. Once I finished my own DD, I was convinced Santa has got it all going; has every base covered; and TRE will be the grand slam of grand slams. It truly will be his Grand Finale.
    Now to the big short; i'll paste this post...

    Out of Canada. I know the entity and who runs it. but it is a fund. They are financed by ABX. They target companies to take down, push to the wall and acquire for pennies. Not gonna work with TRE. Actually the stock is invulnerable to such manipulation. We have no forward book to get development money, no real debt (personal loan from JS gor 22M..no due date and no interest). Good luck to ABX. JS hates them more than the devil himself. ABX is the GS of the mining sector.

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  52. From reading various different web sites, blogs, posts what have you it seems that $50Ag is the price that some physical will be sold back into the marketplace. I ask by whom? Not me!

    I think we all need to look through the lense of VALUE vs the PRICE.

    $50? Not me. $100? Perhaps. $150, I think I might sell a little and purchase some Au providing the Au/Ag ratio is inline. My question is what price do you think the Masses will sell all their stash?

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  53. yo wineguy...have another glass as will I...personally I wouldn't sell silver or gold for any fiat currency...not now...not ever as long as this economic climate exists...and I expect that to continue for a LONG,LONG, TIME...

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  54. There are two long bond auctions on Wed and Thu so expect EE to quell the rise for the auctions.

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  55. Thanks Pat. Please keep sharing on TRE. As it's Santa's company, I'm sure Turd and his followers will be interested.

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  56. timpa, I agree 100%. That's my point. If you look at my past posts I'm always saying price is "paper", "Physical" is Physical.

    So why are the websites stating $50 is where some physical will enter into the marketplace? IMHO, think Poker. These assholes know they can get some people off their hand. Everyone here in Turd land knows holding physical is a STRONG hand. Don't fold people. Hold tight.

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  57. Anybody notice how Treasuries fell out of bed late in the day? Interesting times...

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  58. Clinton Ambassador Meeting: Unprecedented Mass Meeting Of Top Envoys

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    WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of U.S. ambassadors.

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    ReplyDelete
  59. Justin - Pick mentioned AGQ which is a good choice, also options on the same. Double leveraged silver etf. Options on AGQ are less liquid than options on SLV but you shouldn't need as many contracts on AGQ.

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  60. pretty damn funny Hitler video silvergoldsilver has on his site: Crash JP Morgan - Buy Silver: Max Keiser vs. Jamie Dimon

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I0mhX9hpq3g

    ReplyDelete
  61. Any options traders anticipating a raid may want to look at ZSL calls. ZSL is the AGQ inverse and has an average volume of 3.75M shares, which is almost 4x the volume of AGQ

    This is a much better choice for playing the downside IMO because contracts are a lot less expensive than AGQ puts. ZSL trades for around 9.80 a share

    I believe you also avoid the tax implications you'd incur by holding AGQ puts and calls simultaneously, but I'll have to dig deeper on that

    I made a small play at the close today and got the 10 strike for .30

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  62. yo wineguy...I toast to our agreement...fiat will never replace physical in our lifetime...if ever at this juncture in global economics...wish I could get some of my friends to understand...there appears to be a tremendous psychological attachment to paper money...(ya think?) and no coaxing will ever get some out of paper into physical, something I'll never understand as long as I live...all I can figure is folks can not handle the volatility we are experiencing (past and present)...I firmly believe that in time the volatility will settle down a bit and a true price will evolve...especially given the long term scarcity...oh how I wish I was 20 years younger, to live long enough to actually see silver reach it's true value...

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  63. TF,

    re: your 9pm update...I'm curious what leads you to believe the Benton crew will be buying on a daily basis? How do HFs, institutions, and the like normally execute extremely large orders?

    If they decide to wait a day or two in between orders we could bear witness to one hell of a tug of war, no?

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  64. P.S. Sorry for all the posting, but accidentally just stumbled onto an audio site I never knew existed that looks great:

    http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

    Check it out

    ReplyDelete
  65. Quoting wynter, 29 Jan: "The key to this is to see how many Mar contracts are standing for delivery as Mar 1 approaches. The bulk of the buying will occur near the end but the process starts on Feb 8." Not perfectly clear, but the way I read this the buying might be intermittent. So no heavy buying tomorrow might not be a perfect tell, dunno...

    ReplyDelete
  66. Now that JPM has all but admitted that "physical gold" is money and they are willing to allow it to be used as collateral for margin accounts, why would anyone smart enough to have amassed the physical asset be so stupid as to put it back in the vaults of JPM where they will lease it out to some other entity. It might be the last time you ever see you gold again.

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  67. pick and A: Excellent points. The resumption tomorrow is not quite as interesting as the cessation this evening.

    I don't know and I don't want to give anyone the impression that I do. I'm grasping at straws on this one as much as you are.

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  68. Somebody just took a shot and tried to out Wynter on Yahoo.

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  69. There are two Jack's here, lol.

    Jack1 here.

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  70. Winter Benton is bogus:
    I copied this from someones post earlier because they have pointed out on of the flaws in the Benton story.

    "I don't think they would go about acquiring physical unless they already had some March contracts to cover or unless they were planning on shorting some more paper. I think that's why Benton said that they would take it as a sign that JPM is low on physical if the price goes up, because if they have plenty of physical to cover their shorts, then they can technically keep shorting in order to keep a lid on the price in this delivery month, after which time shorting paper with impunity won't entail immediate delivery risks. On the other hand, if prices rise that means JPM is either unable or unwilling to deliver additional physical in March."

    This for me is very telling. If Benton is who he says he is .... i.e. an ex-insider .... he/she should have a very good idea of inventory levels and would be able to calculate the breaking points. Either Benton is being evasive to not tip her hand (unlikely as all this public chatter is a big hand tip) or they simply don't know what JPM has. As a group of insiders they should know what JPM has.

    To be fair I haven't combed through every post of Benton's but the above is a glaring hole in the argument. The little I have read indicates they know what they are talking about at a high level but short on any details which would prove the story. I would think they would want to prove the story to gather as many troops as possible for this assault. If this guy is on the level then why be anonymous? What does anonymity get you when you are spilling your guts about a Comex raid on Yahoo.

    Sorry too many flaws.
    My guess is he might be a disgruntled employee trying to create his own self fulfilling prophecy.
    Wish it were otherwise.

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  71. Not ready to call Wynter bogus yet. stuey and wynter seem to have some coherent posts these days.

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  72. I guess I don't understand the glaring hole.

    Everything they've said has come true. And no, insiders would not have to know inventory levels..that's somebody's else's job in a huge corporation there must be 10 layers between you and product...these guys just trade, that's all.

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  73. Check out Max Keiser's latest Keiser Report. In the second half he has an interview with Pierre Jovanovic, a French fellow who has written a book about Blythe.

    The English language edition is due out in June this year - hopefully about June 10, when gold will be $1600 and Turd will be vindicated: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

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  74. @Louis... your call is early, they had plenty of "troops" and ammo today, right? Don't overthink it, just see if it plays out. So far so good. Even named their Yahoo "broadcaster" after a stripper, nice touch.

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  75. Also, WB crew not relying on "as many troops as possible" Louis. They seem to be a relatively small group of ex Morgue traders who are using leverage to buy contracts on their own. Very different from the Max Keisier Crash JPM populist rallying cry.

    Your paragraph quoting from someone else's post doesn't read entirely clearly to me, but what I gleen is that the person you quote believes the WB crew is looking to stand for delivery. They are not and they have clarified that. Apparently it was their initial intention but now they've changed their minds. As TF points out, they seem to want to take the cash premiums in March and, if it works out, take another run at JPM in May. Turd highlighted the dangerous precedent this sets in this initial post and the WB crew seem to recognize the opportunity also.

    Lastly, I don't know why anyone WOULD want to reveal themselves as taking on JPM. Talk about dangerous.

    I hope this helps in some way

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  76. @ CO_DAN-
    You asked why the asian market has been comatose for the past week in the USA.

    I just checked wikipedia.

    China's New Years celebration lasts one week and New Years Eve correlates to February 3, 2011.

    That means that the party in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shengzhen lasts until February 10.

    Wiki also states that Hong Kong/Macau celebrates the new year for three days. This would put it at February 3-6, 2011.

    That break out today might be explained by the party concluding in Hong Kong last night on Monday. Apparently, if the party includes a Sunday, those guys extend the party to include a public holiday on the day before (I don't get it, but whatever).

    Dan, HK traders were out on Feb 2 through Feb 6 which explains why the Asian markets were so quiet last week.

    My guess is that we will see substantial change in gold price during our night time starting on our Thursday night, which is their 2/11/11.

    It's all very poetic isn't it?

    2-11-11...sort of like a roll of the dice and a very "auspicious" outcome not one, but two 11's.

    I'm guessing that they need one day back at work to get the forces together, and then will attack on our Thursday night.

    That means tomorrow is the last opportunity to jump into more position before this train is moving out of the station for good.

    Next stop 1400?

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  77. Soon time to switch from silver into gold. When the stock market eventually takes a dump, silver, because of its commercial applications, will likely go down with it. Also, gold has further to run as it's further from its high than is silver.

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  78. Moderately OT, but.....

    I been following a two-pronged strategy due to my financial situation. Proportionally more $$ available to trade through a self-directed IRA, and a lesser amount available through montly budget/cash-flow.

    Since the summer of 2009, I have been following a parallel approach to the metals trade. I use the IRA funds to chase the "paper" trades, and the lesser, free-cash flow to purchase physical. I have been going for a 3:1 ratio of silver to gold in the physical purchases for the past year or so. I keep about 30% of my IRA funds available as "dry powder" to jump on significant events and use trailing stops to make sure I don't get whacked on reversals. The physical stash just builds up regardless of reversals, and will be my stash if/when the SHTF. If that doesn't play out, I'll pass the stash along to my kids and grandkids. If, somehow, TPTB pull this out of their @$$, at least I have a cool collection of physical bars and coins for my kids to marvel over. OTOH if the wheels come off, I have something in-hand to fall back on.

    As for the IRA stuff, I'm heaviest on Sprott's stuff, less so on the major miners, and even less ("lottery" money) on the juniors.

    Would love to get some perspective from others on their views.

    Should mention that I have some minor holdings in GoldMoney, and a small cash account in the Caymans that I can use to hold different currencies.

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  79. As to Chinese New Year: The markets are apparently closed until today.

    "Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange closed for the Spring Festival 2011: According to Market Holidays Arrangements, from February 2(Wednesday) to February 8 (Tuesday), the market will be shut for holidays, February 9 (Wednesday) will be opened as usual. January 30 (Sunday), and February 12 (Saturday) are weekend holidays."

    this is from the China Financial Daily web site:
    http://www.chinafinancialdaily.com/financial/news/2011/01/23/13714/shanghai-and-shenzhen-stock-exchange-2011-chinese-new-year-stock-market-holidays-arrangements.html

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  80. Richard said...
    Thanks Dan.

    When you get 90 mins guys have a listen to this. Could be tied into the recent recall of all Ambassadors to the US for a cnflab with. Hillary Clinton. Very scary if true and time to get physical. Especially on the back of King World News about China looking for 5000 Tns gold today. GLA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IncyFDTR9MA

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  81. I was curious, so did some research:

    http://agoracom.com/ir/ECU/forums/discussion/topics/464420-wynter-benton-today/messages/1502444#message

    A number of posts here:
    http://agoracom.com/members/thedukes/post_history

    Oh, and another Wynter Benton reference: http://www.myredbook.com/showpro.aspx?id=1098

    Though, the last one isn't about silver, she was a lap dancer in 2001 in San Fran. At the time the profile read female 21-24. The Wynter on the Yahoo message board profile states that the poster is 35 and female. The math on current date to post date and ages lines up (to inside a year.).

    The yahoo profile references Amber Reeves, a well known writer who died in the 80's. Probably a book on this person's shelf, like "The Nationalisation of Banking", though I find humour in the though that the two names chosen by this person are a lap dancer and feminist. I suspect Wynter was a 'service' that was previously used.

    The yahoo profile was created may last year.

    The writings are all over the place and the yahoo board again seems to be active, claiming credit for today's move. So there is no point in cut\pasting it here.

    "I have been tasked by Blythe's former traders"

    Indicates that this person is not one of them. The person does appear to be answering the questions on yahoo with some sense of purpose, so I would surmise they are either legit, or gaming prety hard to push silver higher (possibly akin to pump and dump traders).


    Interesting. My gut says we got a ~75-80% chance this is legit. Turd's update comment on the confirmation move was insightful, and give us better odds. The pessimist in me(which gets a lot of work these days) says this will fizzle in 2-3 days in to background noise to some other emerging crisis. Perhaps it's time for North Korea to launch a missile or something...

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  82. Hang10,

    I suppose it doesn't add much to the conversation, but everything you said makes a tremendous amount of sense to me. Some striking similarities to my general approach as well. Though I tend to run 2 or 3 to one in favor of gold over silver.

    Well Done, sir!

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  83. Already looking to reach $31 today. Gold/silver ratio has been shrinking lately too.
    Coin Info

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  84. Today silver erupts minutes _BEFORE_ NYMEX opens.... Very interesting.

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  85. Has this 8am spike gotten anyone else's attention??

    It's gotten mine.

    It is getting harder and harder to dismiss and explain away this Benton stuff.

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  86. Guess I am a littel slow on the draw, but we have all been quite willing to call a spade a spade and recognize manipulation to the downside.

    well this is as clear as one can get for manipulation to the UPSIDE. Even if this is just a little spike, the timing is perfect to let us (and JPM) know that "Yup, we're here, amd we are for real".

    Any statisticians out there?? I would bet the probability of this occurring by CHANCE alone is very small.

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  87. Welll... I stayed up until 12:30am to watch the open again, and I guess there it is again...

    Looks like people not even involved in the raid are frontrunning the open...

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  88. One last thing: if I were in this Benton group, I would make DAMN sure that NO ONE had ANY reason to beleive that I was just a one trick pony.

    The beauty of it all is tha WE SHALL SEE.

    As Pining for the fjords put it last night, this is not just some theoretical war gaming, this is real time.

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  89. If I were in the supposed Benton group, I'd want them to think I'm a one-trick pony... but each time they brought it back down I'd throw another wad of cash at it. Let it happen for a week straight, then just throw money at it and watch it go through the roof as March gets closer.

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  90. One other possible perspective to add to game theory here. By and large, the EE is a group of sharks that feed of the millions of minnows in the world. Or a wolfpack.
    But some of the pack dislike other members, and would love the chance to eliminate them ( think Lehman and Bear Sterns ) and would do so given the right opportunity.
    Could GS be looking at this as a takedown of the Morgue, so as to swallow the remains?

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  91. By the way, i think a choppy sideways day today after yesterday would have to be one in the win column, almost as much as an up day.

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  92. @Pat,

    To use a slightly different metaphor, I would be more than happy to be a small evolving mammal feasting on the remains of the TRexs devouring themselves.

    Any way I look at it though, just about every scenario leads to much higher prices in the short term at least.

    The pessimist in me worries about that though.

    Eric loves to use the "sucker at the poker table" analogy -- if you don't know who it is, its YOU.

    In the end, it is all a show as long as you have a stack of physical.

    But the greedy wannabe banker in all of us is always fascinated by ways to leverage "information" into profit.

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  93. @ fourth

    hard to believe wynter_benton could even be of greater service to us now than she was in 2001... but such is life! lol.
    i think i'm in love.

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  94. if there is such a group and they are successful this time around getting a cash premium, wonder if other non-benton-group traders join in on the bandwagon moving forward.

    I recall WB commenting about the hedge fund guy who was charged for making threats to top officials. Apparently they put a stop to what he was doing - pooling funds from various sources to buy a bunch of contracts.

    In this case, if such a WB group exists, they're each member is buying contracts thus distinguishing the group from the charged hedge fund trader.

    Now, I'm no legal expert, but perhaps JPM and gov't officials go after the WB group traders for colluding to attempt to manipulate the price.

    Anyways, enjoying the popcorn from this theatre.

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  95. Right now I'm worried more about what will happen after 1st of March..

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  96. Saw a comment on one of those links that Turd posted... Now I have the image of Blythe running down the hall carrying a kitchen sink screaming "Wait! NOOooooo!!!"

    You know they are rounding up everything they got to monkey hammer this thing into oblivion today. They have no other choice, they have been "all in" for some time now.

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  97. Turd, what's going on here? It looks like the spike in silver happened in the hour before the COMEX opened. Also, what do you anticipate as far as EE action? It is Wednesday...

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  98. Has anyone else seen the CNBS promo spot for their new Squawk Box runnning discussion, titled "Bounty Hunters?"

    The tag line: "There's a new way to make money on Wall Street...take down the company you used to work for"

    Even though our mystery girl claims she's not an ex-JPM employee, her group does seem to make that claim

    Curious timing, just sayin'

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  99. Also @StrongSideJedi: I'm in Shanghai and almost everyone was back at work today (Wed 2/9).

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  100. Ticking up nicely at the open :)

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  101. Are we witnessing a cat fight in the silver pit? (Blythe vs. Wynters)

    It's looking like this Wynter's chick has legs and she knows how to use them.

    Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned?

    I could do this all day...

    There is definitely a heck of a fight going on now in the silver pit that's for certain. It goes up, monkey hammer, up, monkey hammer. Lots of volatility in this manipulated market. Wowee..

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  102. "Wynter" explains:

    The purpose of 'Wynter Benton' is miuch like the 'Tyler Durden' moniker over at Zero Hedge.

    There are a group of us who uses 'Wynter Benton' from time to time to contribute and disseminate relevant info about silver to the public. At other times, some of us uses it as a means to irritate Blythe in a sophomoric manner.

    However, it seems that despite yesterday's event which was 'predicted' well in advance has not had the desired effect. A lot of readers still do not believe in our group.

    Some of us within the group are seriously thinking of discontinuing this method of communication since we are not achieving the intended results.

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  103. Thanks, StrongSide! Looks like we'll see the Asian markets re-entering the action soon.

    Classic comment on a Wynter thread over at Yahoo:

    Wynter,

    A previous poster compared the Yahoo message board to "a slum".

    If you want to see how much "activity" an Internet buzz can create, why don't you come over to the "high rent district":

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/


    Turd, YOU ROCK!!

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  104. Dan: That's classic...and NO, I did NOT post that! :)

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