Thursday, February 10, 2011

OK, Then.

Well, what an interesting day this is.

Overnight, The EE struck and struck hard, trying to get the ball rolling to the downside. We then got an "8:30 Special" as Blythe ripped about a quarter out of silver right on schedule. From there, however, silver has been well-bid all morning. Check it out:
Very nice action. Very nice.

From here, let's see if we can hold these gains. Here at noon EST, I've got $30.20. A best case scenario is that we scream higher into the close and finish above 30.50, thereby giving us another, wonderful UP outside reversal day. A happy scenario would give us at least a green close, above 30.28. (Trust me. That in itself would be a major victory.) An unfortunate scenario would be to rollover here and close below 30.

Let's keep watching and see how things play out on what has become a very important day for the short-term trend. TF
Posted by at

131 comments:

  1. afrumFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:01 PM

    I also enjoy another rough cob up the blythers tailpipe!! Rip above 30.50 to stick it to the jpig morgue sphincters! FRYday follow through close above 31.25 for a routing victory in operation preparation "H"! Free jiffy lube all around for the jpig morgue crowd!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. RuiFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:05 PM

    I've seldom seen a PM rally right in the face of 30Y auction. If it's WB folks or whoever doing it then it's ballsy.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Eric PFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:09 PM

    Would have loved to seen Blythe partake in this event:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB7gnB31NnI

    ReplyDelete
  4. kliguy38February 10, 2011 at 12:09 PM

    ALL bets are off with silver action if you believe there is a true shortage of physical. You can play the paper trade but the advantage is to the longs here. Expect silver to see over 40 withing a month before consolidation

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  5. Turd FergusonFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:11 PM

    FYI, I just purchased a 32-35 spread in May silver calls with the proceeds from selling the March 30s yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:19 PM

    As if we needed MORE confirmation of silver shortage:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/10_Turk_-_Silver_Backwardation_for_Years%2C_Possible_Hyperinflation.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. flauntFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:29 PM

    Turd Tweets! Awesome!

    ReplyDelete
  8. ColoradoGuyFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:29 PM

    From ZH.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-executive-order-6102-qe-generation-dutch-central-bank-orders-pension-fund-sell-it

    ReplyDelete
  9. silvergoldsilverFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:35 PM

    Part 4 silver Bears video out tomorrow with some shockers! Put your diapers on.

    ReplyDelete
  10. caramelFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:39 PM

    thanks Justin. wonder if the pension fund is required to sell the 'extra' gold to the DCB :) probably not but suspect the 1.4 tonnes will remain within the bankers control.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Turd FergusonFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    IF The Turd was running money...and IF The Turd was desirous of spiking silver to $31, thereby attracting big $ and putting the hammer to the EE...I'd wait until about 1:10 or so and then start buying like crazy to paint the tape with a green close and even an ORD.
    Just sayin...

    ReplyDelete
  12. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    That Dutch pension aught to make a public thing about lining up a Chinese buyer for that gold. Probably not what TPTB had in mind!

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 12:57 PM

    Switching gears from Wynter and the Strippers for a bit, here is an article from a guy who seems to have a good view of things, regardless of what aspect of the silver market he writes about:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lewis/feb102011.html

    Something tells me this "kabuki" with Wynter is entertaining and all, but the REAL issues in the imtermeidate and long term are the structural problems with debt that are, let's face it, insurmountable at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  14. JWFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:01 PM

    What gets me about the whole WB situation is that "she" states that a higher price would be more indicative of a physical shortage, yet we all know that physical is facing delays in delivery right now. A higher price would bring out more long term holders to take their profits and fill the supply gap making jp's job of getting ahold of the physical to deliver, would't it?

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:02 PM

    Here is the good doctor's archive:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#lewis

    ReplyDelete
  16. JWFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:03 PM

    Above...."Make jp's job (easier)"...sorry

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:07 PM

    @Turd,

    From your lips to God's ears, my friend.

    Just sayin'.

    @JW;

    That is PRECISELY the ONLY thing that makes me skeptical about Wynter and the Strippers (btw, cmon now, Blythe and the Monkeys vs Wynter and the Strippers -- can you make this up?? And which team would you rather be on?)

    But back to the point, how can someone SOOO knowledgable about the silver manipulation make such a STUPID mistake as to say that price of silver has ANY relation to supply and demand? Isn't that the whole point here?

    ReplyDelete
  18. UnknownFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:07 PM

    The nest step is to turn gold & silver into working currency to compete with (overthrow) fiat paper. The largest private market for goods & services is Craigslist and EBay. When you start seeing ads saying payment in gold & silver only "NO FIAT PAPER CURRENCIES ACCEPTED" G & S will go from buy & hold to buy-hold-and use. This will drive a silver steak through the JP Morgue.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ENKIFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:18 PM

    This can't be good. Silver in Backwardation out till 2015??? jesus

    http://enkigold.blogspot.com/2011/02/turk-silver-backwardation-for-years.html

    ReplyDelete
  20. afrumFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:26 PM

    New POMO schedule hits 2Pm est! Lots'uv hot money with additional 25 billion handed off to primary dealers today!! Silver could go either way as the hot money may be sufficient to fight real money gold/silver! May be too many irons in the fire for the fed and just keeping the Dow above 12,200 may cost them all the banana republic skins today?

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:29 PM

    Thank you all for the responses and Turd for allowing this chatter. Just visited apmex.com and they have good prices (€ 25,56 single ASE / + 500 @ € 24,45) but the problem for me is that the dutch customs will VAT the shipment and I rather spent that money on more silver. Second option you guys mentioned is Germany (ASE 27,70 including 6% VAT) and that is in driving range for a pick up by yours truly. Luxemburg is also an option but I have to find some prices. same goes for Switzerland.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:39 PM

    Bart

    http://www.kronwitter-muenzen.de/Silbermuenzen-1-oz

    ReplyDelete
  23. Turd FergusonFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Bart: The "chatter" is what makes the site. My comments have become secondary.

    ReplyDelete
  24. kliguy38February 10, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Just did my patriotic duty and ordered 100 more Buffalo rounds for "cold storage" heheheh

    ReplyDelete
  25. JosephFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:43 PM

    A Turd Tweet?? - is that a Silver Fart?

    ReplyDelete
  26. HewardFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:50 PM

    Got some 2 oz and 1 oz bars from Monarch Precious Metals in the mail! They have 100oz ingots for sale as well. I like the handcrafted look personally.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 1:56 PM

    Those poured bars from Monarch are sweet!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Pick52February 10, 2011 at 2:03 PM

    Turd,

    Your blog has really gotten me interested in TA. If you had to recommend one book for beginners who have only rudimentary knowledge of chart reading, what would it be?

    ReplyDelete
  29. marcoFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:05 PM

    Buy Silver --- Crash JP Morgan animation that talks about Turd ....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4

    ReplyDelete
  30. Dr. JeromeFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:06 PM

    What is TPTB? I didn't see it in turd's glossary.

    ReplyDelete
  31. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:07 PM

    Sorry, guys, "POMO"...? Tried looking it up with no success.

    ReplyDelete
  32. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:09 PM

    Jerome - I know that one: The Powers That Be

    ReplyDelete
  33. unum mountaineerFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:10 PM

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    Does it make you want to sell your physical PM's?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Turd FergusonFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:15 PM

    Permanent
    Open
    Market
    Operations

    Expect a full post regarding the latest schedule by later this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
  35. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    TKS TF. I thought it was something like that from the context...

    ReplyDelete
  36. T.J. RandFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    Pick-

    Try Martin Pring's 'Introduction to Technical Analysis- it's dry as toast, but covers all the bases.

    ReplyDelete
  37. ByzantiumFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    The vibes are growing for silver at over $35 by March. Backwardation till 2015; smoke is pouring out of the cartel's engines!

    If March $35 is indeed coming, then the longer it takes to get moving, the more spectacular will be the ascent. Will it be a diagonal line, or horizontal then vertical?

    It is gonna be a white knuckle ride for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Pick52February 10, 2011 at 2:23 PM

    Thank you TJ, I'll take a peek now

    ReplyDelete
  39. unum mountaineerFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:23 PM

    The January deficit rises by $50B; tax-cut package puts annual deficit on pace for $1.5T. Well folks on here get the picture.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:25 PM

    The POMO is the nuts and bolts of how the Fed prints all the money for QE. They actually put out a schedule for it.

    ReplyDelete
  41. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:26 PM

    Mubarak to announce his intentions at 2 EST

    ReplyDelete
  42. afrumFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:28 PM

    Yup! Turk says there's 2 things we have happen! Both send silver skyward!! Those holding physical have the aces and the paper fiat crowd hold all the jokers with a few direction cards on how the game is played!! two alternatives:


    One, as we discussed on Friday, the silver price has to rise in order to dislodge physical metal from the strong hands that now own it. But why would anyone accept some national currency in exchange for physical silver unless the price is much, much higher?


    Two, the shorts declare force majeure and use government force to let them escape from their untenable position. The fall-out from this outcome is very complex because there are so many factors to consider. But I would expect that any default would only strengthen the resolve of the strong hands now owning physical metal. Meaning that the market for physical silver would become even more tight than it is now, even if the price shoots higher as I expect.” http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html
    ........................................
    Yup! gov bailout for jpig! Hold tight to the physical!! Here we go!!

    ReplyDelete
  43. marcoFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:35 PM

    Buy Silver --- Crash JP Morgan animation that talks about Turd ....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4

    ReplyDelete
  44. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 2:59 PM

    The majority of the people out there holding fiat and no metals at all are just like us ..or at least just like how we (or at least me) used to be. They are going to be in a world of hurt once all the s does htf. So, let's all keep trying to alert as many people as possible and win as many converts to real money as possilbe. I am grateful that my brother woke me up last year. I am late to this realization but at least I am here now and playing a mad game of trying to prepare.

    And I am trying to wake others up. I will take absolutely no pleasure in watching those without metals go through the pain that is coming our way. As I said..most just don't realize that an enonomic tsunami is rapidly approaching. Too busy living their lives and enjoying the relative ease of it to get their heads out of the sand.

    ReplyDelete
  45. afrumFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:06 PM

    Ginger! Working class rank'n file U.S. citizen will get left holding the fiat paper printed to infinity bag!! Just how it works!! I've tried for 3 years to convince family/friends about how we revert back to the gold/silver standard naturally as governments go wild printing!! Most look at you as if you have four eyes! Only have one daughter & son accumulating physical silver, other two kids will depend on Dad/Mom!! Fine!!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Prize FighterFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:15 PM

    Found this new Twitter update on ZH. It Tweets "sold out" silver status from various online retailers.

    http://twitter.com/Silver_Watchdog

    ReplyDelete
  47. BrianFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:22 PM

    I have two questions I was hoping someone could answer.

    First of all, why-night after night, do silver futures get hammered. Does anyone buy paper on the long side, ever?

    My second question. Will there ever be a point in time where actual physical silver has a G'D'amned thing to do with paper silver and lack of supply?

    Thanks boys and girls.

    ReplyDelete
  48. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:26 PM

    Ginger - Here's a thought.

    Most people know who Robert Kyosaki is - The Rich Dad author. Tell them to read Michael Mahoney's book "Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver", which is part of the Rich Dad's Advisors collection. Maybe the Rich Dad label will cause them to give it some credibility. Mahoney does a great job of explaining the whole history of fiat vs real money and what to do. It was his book that woke me up. Another very good one is Charles Goyette's "The Dollar Meltdown". Good luck!

    BTW, there is another edge to the hyperinflation sword. If you can accumulate enough of the devalued currency, you can pay off all your debts with it, including your mortgage...

    Even if people can't by PM or amass lots of fiat, they should at least get and keep a 30 day or more supply of food (every good Mormon family already has a year's worth). Good to have when the daily trucks to your local Safeway stop running.

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  49. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:37 PM

    Reuters saying Mubarak id transferring his powers and amending the constitution

    Not sure if this will appease the massive crowd in Tahrir Square

    Apparently, some of the army have downed guns and joined the crowd, in defiance of an order from Mubarak

    ReplyDelete
  50. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:44 PM

    Wow: IMF calling for dollar alternative

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/

    WTF?

    That's pretty serious, no?

    ReplyDelete
  51. dallascfpFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:45 PM

    So what happens if Mubarak steps down. How is that going to effect the Metals market.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:47 PM

    Tales From The Front--

    Left work early today (sore throat) and checked on my fav local shop. THis is the one that had gotten in a stack of 10 oz bars last week. I noted at the time that I was sure they'd be sold out in a couple days.

    Sure enough, those bars are long gone. One interesting thing though. There are now THREE 100 oz bars sitting in their place. The guy told me that a customer walked in and wanted to trade those 100's for all the 90% coin he could get. I don't want to read anything into why someone might do that, but it's interesting nonetheless. Not sure how much 90% coin he keeps on hand, as it is generally not out in the display case, but he had enough to take care of this customer. Without that trade-in, he was pretty much wiped out.

    Bottom line, at the local shop level, silver is on a high speed revolving door. If they don't have what you want, try again in a day or two. Whatever comes in is gone fast. But always ask about 90% coin if it interests you and you don't see it on display. More often it's in the back, in rolls, bags, or buckets.

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  53. dallascfpFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:48 PM

    Peter Schiff has been saying that all along that $$ will be replaced by some other denomination because of its weakness and will no longer be the World's Reserve currency.

    ReplyDelete
  54. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:50 PM

    Mubarak is "proud" of the protestors and will punish the people he ordered harm them..

    His response to their demands is to fulfill what he promised. Protestor demands are to be fulfilled.

    Looks like he is staying on until the election

    Cairo could burn

    ReplyDelete
  55. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:52 PM

    Eric...

    Hey, just check GVille coins site and now their silver Eagles are 2.90 over spot! They must know the supply is on life support at this point. That's a $.90 hike in a week.
    Their Buffs are still only $1 over spot though.
    I'm going to have to go in there today and see what's up.

    ReplyDelete
  56. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:52 PM

    @dallascfp:

    I respect Peter Schiff's opinion a great deal.

    But for the IMF to say it, and for it to be reported on CNN Money is an exponentially different matter.

    That puts it that much closer to ACTUALLY happening.

    And if the dollar loses reseve currency status, well, that really is, to quote Joe Biden, "a big fucking deal".

    ReplyDelete
  57. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM

    I hear you oldNavy, afrum. This whole thing is just somewhat depressing as I'm sure most here would agree that we'd rather have a stable real-money backed economy AND a gov't AND banks who gave a turd about the country and its people than all the metals on the planet. I for one come at this from an angle that I have NO CHOICE but to collect metals, miners, foodstuffs. We have been backed into this corner and ..well, today watching the Egyptian people struggle for their freedom it just makes me madder than ever that we HAVE...or had.. what these people want. And we are having it stolen from us right before our very eyes. ..Not that we are totally innocent in the situation. We have let this government get out of control. We have slept while they have schemed the financial downfall of America. Each of us are only one person and you just feel powerless but collectively we should have put a stop to this madness a long long time ago.

    I continue to stock and store. Good advice.

    ReplyDelete
  58. kliguy38February 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM

    Mubarak NOT resigning.....onward with turmoil in the middle east.....Gold and silver remains the safety net

    ReplyDelete
  59. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 3:58 PM

    Save-America1st

    I can't wait to hear what Bill Haynes has to say on KWN's weekly wrap this weekend. But then, I always say that!

    ReplyDelete
  60. PatFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:00 PM

    And we thought the WB saga was kabuki; now this shit in Egypt, this is the real deal, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  61. ColoradoGuyFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:00 PM

    "Wow: IMF calling for dollar alternative

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/

    WTF?

    That's pretty serious, no?"

    That will be the end. Once the oil is no longer traded in dollars we are going to be glad we hold physical.

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/india-iran-mull-over-gold-for-oil-for-now/articleshow/7238760.cms

    ReplyDelete
  62. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:00 PM

    The real world has a way of stepping in no matter what JPM and Wynter have to say...

    ReplyDelete
  63. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:03 PM

    ok, gotta ask. Anybody have any good info on the Amero currency? I've been hearing for a few years that the gov't is trying to crash the dollar so that they can merge Canada and Mexico with our economy and use the Amero like Europe does the Euro. Bad fucking idear right there, but I don't know if it's just rumor or what. I do know they've been minting Amero coins for quite a while now and they're not easy to purchase.
    Just wondering if anyone had the inside scoop, because since I've been reading here and on ZH I can't say I've ever seen it brought up yet.

    ReplyDelete
  64. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:03 PM

    Cris -

    Yeah I have seen that story before, but not on cnn. What is interesting to me is that this stuff is being reported more and more in the MSM. I don't know how many people are noticing yet, but when we start seeing stories about inflation and/or PM in USA Today, everything will shift into high gear.

    I am hoping we can see another 2-3 years or more of this silver bull before it goes parabolic.

    BTW, I am reading that wikileaks published emails from a senior Saudi oil official saying he thinks they have overestimated their underground reserves by 40%?

    ReplyDelete
  65. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:05 PM

    Cris

    Yes, that IMF story is a BFD indeed! Seems like lately we've been seeing more and more stories along those lines, either talking gold standard or SDR's.

    If things were truly all okey-dokey like they keep telling us, why would they increasingly be talking new global currency regimes?

    ReplyDelete
  66. RuiFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:06 PM

    Boy that Dutch strong arm gold sale stinks big time. I feel sorry for those living in Europe as it appears they are moving past neo-liberal socialism to full blown totalitarianism.

    ReplyDelete
  67. flauntFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:07 PM

    Turd, do you think this is the "sell the rally" mentality you were talking about on the way up to making new highs? i.e. are we seeing selling from the poor bastards who waited until $30.50+ to jump in last year?

    If so, does it just have to keep poking at $30.50 until it falls?

    ReplyDelete
  68. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:10 PM

    OldNavy,

    I think you are right about this stuff getting more and more mainstream.

    As for me, I kinda wish our national leaders would stop kicking the can down the road and just deal with our problems.

    And I think our biggest problem is Peak Oil, which we never seem to talk about here (and that's OK).

    But our WHOLE economic system is based on growth, and oil is the engine for that growth. And if the theory of Peak oil is correct, and i personally believe it is, then we will NEVER again have as much cheap energy as we do now, or did have in the past few years.

    And that affects literally EVERYHTING, from food to medicine to communications...

    One of the most powerful book I ever read was written several years ago by James Kunstler: THE LONG EMERGENCY.

    that was the book that got me into PMs. And there is not a SINGLE thing he predicted that is NOT coming true. His entire thesis was based on Peak Oil.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Pining for the FjordsFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:13 PM

    Cris-

    Thanks for posting this- looks like the international power elite have themselves a plan. Since SDR's will not be backed by anything but a basket of international currencies (printed at will by the member nations CB's), and the SDR's themselves will also be printed at will. So I agree with Eric- this looks like a last-ditch effort to keep the Ponzi going by adding another layer to it. The insider elite, of course, will control rate of exchange to facilitate more looting by banker allies, but then that is the whole point it seems.

    Buy and hold tangibles, people. If you can't touch it, you don't own it.

    ReplyDelete
  70. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:13 PM

    Save_America1st Never heard that one, but if was Canada or Mexico, I think I would say "No, thanks." Their currencies are both looking better for the future than is ours.

    History note: The 1oz silver "Spanish Dollar" or 8 Real Piece (yes like the pirates "pieces of eight"), AKA "Peso", was accepted as money throughout the USA up to the mid-1800's.

    ReplyDelete
  71. kliguy38February 10, 2011 at 4:15 PM

    Egyptians pissed off after mubaraks speech....here it comes....buckle up

    ReplyDelete
  72. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:24 PM

    Fox News: "Mubarak to hand off power but remain in office"

    ..Now, that just doesn't make sense. Isn't that kind of like getting a divorce but remaining in the marriage ?

    ReplyDelete
  73. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:25 PM

    Just read an interesting thesis: We have always assumed that democracy makes the people happy, but the reality may be that people have to be basically happy for them to choose democracy. I never considered that before, but it makes some sense.

    I hope the Egyptians take the time to do it right. The old Navy saying "If you want it bad, you'll get it bad" may well apply...

    ReplyDelete
  74. MarvinFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:28 PM

    From the 80s

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_ITf7u4XRA

    ReplyDelete
  75. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:31 PM

    I never intended to post this much, but do enjoy the interchange. So, Anybody, what's happening with BM, WB and Ag? Do we really think there is a chance of seeing 31 tomorrow? 30.50?

    ReplyDelete
  76. caramelFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:36 PM

    Cris, thanks for book reference. Think I'll sign it out from the local library today :)

    For those who've read creature from jekyll island, Griffin states the plan is for the amero to the be common currency for the 3 countries. Who knows but keep in mind he wrote that book over 25 years ago I believe.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:38 PM

    oldNavy

    Same here. I'm a pretty quiet guy, but Turd Town has turned me into Chatty Kathy over these last couple months. Just great interchange, great ideas, no garbage, no shouting matches. Really enjoy it. Thank You Turd!

    Plus, with the regular posting of links to current news, you really don't need to be monitoring ZH or anything else. If it matters, you'll get tipped here.

    ReplyDelete
  78. MarvinFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:40 PM

    oldNavy : i guess many will switch tomorrow into AG and AU -- last chance before the weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  79. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:42 PM

    @old Navy,

    been thinking that maybe the Turd could/should post something like "What I would do if I were Wynter Benton".

    He has alluded to his views in the comments.

    But he has enough of a readership that it would make some waves.

    And it would be nice to get some "exchange" going on amongst the "silver elders" if you will.

    If I were wynter, I would be saying to myself things are going pretty well so far. And the real world is starting to play into my hands.

    So maybe I might want to get some more buzz going. And although price is not exactly my goal, a HUGE up day on a Friday going into the weekend might have some benefits: might get some algo buying going, might "fire up the base" so to speak, and in the end, would definitely be advantageous to my goal.

    So what if we had our first $2 UP day tomorrow, and ended above $32??? Dare to dream, but it would be a LOT of bang for my buck. And that's what I would be looking for if I were David going up against Goliath. Maybe even spin it on a Yahoo message board or here at Turd's like "solidarity amongst the common people", or a current day Network "we are mad as hell..."

    Any chance you could share your insights Turd?? Or are you playing chess while the rest of us are playing checkers?

    I mean, March is closer than we think, right Wynter?

    ReplyDelete
  80. PatFebruary 10, 2011 at 4:54 PM

    Cris, th big move on a Friday is the oldest play in the book, and if run well still one of the most effective. Student body right, or Lombardi's power sweep if you prefer.
    A big PM and/or oil move gets it into other discussions like Mubarak, general civil unrest, poor monetray policy- all the weekend shows. Not by itself, but as a contributing player; so lots of people not even thinking about it directly hear the message.
    Twouldst be nice, methinks should it occur.

    ReplyDelete
  81. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:01 PM

    Alright, so let's be bold.

    Let's ask, well maybe even demand (nicely) that our fearless leader Turd step up here a little. He did not ask for the mantle of leadership, but few in history do --rather it is thrust upon them.

    (hehe, he said thrust)

    So what do you say Turd -- maybe jump start this party a little with an open letter to Wynter?

    We of course defer to your judgement -- but what do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  82. Paul BreedFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:05 PM

    Oil could be replaced, here in the U.S if one could remove regulatory barriers we could replace oil with a combination of natural gas and something like a thorium cycle nuke plants. Getting high enough energy density to duplicate the current airline model might be a bit of a challenge.

    I made a post on my own blog about a year ago that may have some relevance to the peak oil discussion in this thread.(http://unreasonablerocket.blogspot.com/2009/08/why-space-matters.html)

    I'm personally conflicted between my belief in human ingenuity as expressed in the book the "rational optimist" and the news I see such as the ZH article on the physical facts on the ground with respect to population growth in Egypt.

    In the short term I am more and more convinced that 95% of the U.S. population has no clue whats coming.

    ReplyDelete
  83. kiyoteiFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:09 PM

    Cris,

    You aren't the only peak-oiler here. I jumped onboard the believer train after reading Chris Martenson's excellent Crash Course: click here. Of course doing my own research only confirmed this analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Turdle GGFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:11 PM

    Does anyone know what Santa Sinclair is talking about with this comment:

    "Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    There is a number whereby Martin Armstrong’s reaction is nullified. Many people in finance read him but will not admit it.

    His second before last missive has contributed to the reaction we have experienced.

    There is no way I will say the price because why should we give the opposition more ammunition?"

    http://jsmineset.com/

    ReplyDelete
  85. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:15 PM

    @kiyotei:

    dude, AWESOME link!

    "Think of an oil field as if it were a margarita..." NICE.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Prize FighterFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:17 PM

    For a good laugh, watch Will Ferrel's guest surprise appearance on CNBC from January 2008.

    "This just in...GE is bankrupt." LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT2DxkEHnJc&feature=feedrec_grec_index

    ReplyDelete
  87. Turd FergusonFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:18 PM

    Cris: that's an interesting idea.
    Unfortunately, today has been extraordinarily busy. I'm trying to find the time to write some stuff about the new POMO schedule.
    Maybe I can write an "if I were Wynter" post this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  88. XtyFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    Remarkably civil crowd, I agree. May it stay so. An unspoken code of conduct is very refreshing.

    ReplyDelete
  89. henry63February 10, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    Santa cracks me up.

    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    This is easy. China only needs one ounce to accomplish this.

    China may increase gold reserves beyond ‘Fort Knox’ level – Hale

    ReplyDelete
  90. TylerFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    oldNavy, I'll probably pick up silver tomorrow as I usually feel pretty good about holding over the weekend. during the middle of the week you have to be careful if you're trying to trade.

    ReplyDelete
  91. PatFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:24 PM

    Turdle,

    Shhh 1372

    ReplyDelete
  92. kiyoteiFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:25 PM

    Now following Turd Tweets:
    http://twitter.com/TFMetals

    ReplyDelete
  93. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:28 PM

    Thanks, Paul.

    One might also ask, "Why is natural gas so cheap now, if oil is getting more expensive?" or "Why would we want to burn 'clean' coal when natural gas is so readily available?"

    This might seem even farther off track, but as long as we are waiting for some more germane silver-centered conversation, what the heck. This actually does relate to why things are as they are and how they might be fixed.

    Much of our current financial and commodity situation is tied to our complex, lobbyist-driven 75,000 page tax code and all the hidden subsidies it creates. I am convinced that the FairTax is an idea worth bringing front and center in American politics. I won't explain it here, it's not appropriate for this board, but y'all might want go to www.fairtax.org and read the case for it.

    ReplyDelete
  94. wrafeFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:28 PM

    @ Turdle GG

    Page 4

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/An%20Islamic%20Revolution%20Is%20It%20on%20Time%2001-30-2011.pdf

    page 5 has interesting data on Oil

    ReplyDelete
  95. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:29 PM

    Turd,

    YOU DA MAN.

    We are just peons in the Kingdom of the Turd.

    Seriously, where else do you get an answer in real time from the guy who runs the show.

    This site rocks. Almost as if we are all brothers from another mother.

    OK, Im out for a bit. A sincere thanks to everyone here for making it MUCH easier to pass the day.

    ReplyDelete
  96. BlindwebFebruary 10, 2011 at 5:57 PM

    Intermediate peak oil you want to understand EROEI, the Export Land Model, a gallon of gas equals 500 man hours of labor, and that we've burned through half a billion years worth of stored sunlight (fossil fuels) in the last 300 years.

    Advanced peak oil you start to understand that our technology is excellent at burning fossil fuels, but is actually very inefficient at conserving energy when the whole system is taken into account. A horse is actually more efficient than a car as a means of transportation if you take into account the entire life cycle and supply chain. A car needs roads, factories, trained labor, mined metals, etc, etc. A horse is self sufficient, eats grass, heals itself, and reproduces on its own. Human ingenuity without abundant energy moves very slow; just look how fast we progressed before fossil fuels. But these are controversial views even among peak oil people.

    I recommend John Michael Greer, but James Kunstler and Jeff Rubin are good Peak Oil writers too.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Turdle GGFebruary 10, 2011 at 6:00 PM

    Pat and wrafe,
    Thank you. I hadn't read Mr. Armstrong's most recent works.

    ReplyDelete
  98. WineGuyFebruary 10, 2011 at 6:21 PM

    Ok, I'm on my second glass now and I just want to make a couple of comments. First, as reported here by a couple of astute PM Turdites the IMF one world currency article is HUGE in my opinion. Perhaps we are much closer to the precipice than we think?

    Secondly, Monday is Valentines Day. Could history be repeating? Might we have Part Two of the St Valentines Massacre. Instead of Al Capone against Bus Moran we get the mother of all market meltdowns initiated by the silver vigilantes vs Blythe?

    ReplyDelete
  99. oldNavyFebruary 10, 2011 at 6:49 PM

    Two thoughts here: (okay, three)

    (1) @pick52 -

    IRT your question much earlier today. You might want to read "Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder. It is an old classic primer, but I found it to have easy to understand explanations of chart analysis.

    (2) @wineguy & others -

    The IMF has been pushing this SDR idea for some time. The Chinese and the Russians recently agreed to settle their international trade in their own currencies. All this is because we do have a world reserve currency - USD - and nobody likes it anymore, so they are looking for alternatives.

    BTW, the USDX index should be taken with a BIG grain of salt. The yardstick against which the USD is measured is primarily the euro and the yen, with other currencies given lesser weight. If the USD was measured against gold, the picture would be WAY worse.

    Looking forward to TF's next post...
    oldNavy out!

    ReplyDelete
  100. WineGuyFebruary 10, 2011 at 6:59 PM

    OldNavy, I agree the IMF has floated numerous past articles. What makes todays article unique is that it is all over the MSM. Huge Difference!

    ReplyDelete
  101. PatFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:03 PM

    "We are just peons in the Kingdom of the Turd."
    Saying this out loud, I get
    " We are just pee ons in the Kingdom of the Turd"
    Aren't we getting just a wee bit scatological?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Nigel FarageFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:04 PM

    What Cris said.......

    Turd, You ARE da man

    Let's keep this blog orderly and focused

    Thanks to all posters

    ReplyDelete
  103. UnknownFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:14 PM

    Turd,

    Can you explain briefly how the Silver/Gold Lease rates are associated with physical demand? I have started to hear about this recently and that the Silver Lease Rates are Rising sharply from Multi Year Lows.

    Chart anyone?

    Thanks,
    Sean

    ReplyDelete
  104. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:28 PM

    All I can tell you about lease rates is that I've looked at them occasionally in the past, hoping to find something that would help me trade. No luck so far, but then, I'm a lousy trader anyway. The only way I ever make a nickel is holding for a long term trend.

    ReplyDelete
  105. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:42 PM

    I spent a good chunk of today on the phone with TD Canada Trust and also TD Waterhouse (brokerage.)

    You can open up an account in person with no limit on deposits....all you need is your cash/check and a couple of IDS.
    As for brokerage...you can open up a trading accouunt, but only with pension/IRA money. You can transfer your stocks over....

    I'm seriously thinking of taking my IRA and moving a chunk to Canada to trade miners there...and put some cash into the bank...you can buy the equivalent of CDS in Canada in the bank.

    Am I NUTS??

    I know all about Everbank, but they're based in FL and they make loans and they are not tops in terms of reserves. So, I'm not so sure about buying currencies through them (Money markets for individual currencies and the CD baskets.) Piece at Zero Hedge today questioning the Aussie, etc. ....Canada not having the same problems...

    ReplyDelete
  106. MartyFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:43 PM

    Santa Says: "There is a number whereby Martin Armstrong’s reaction is nullified. Many people in finance read him but will not admit it.
    His second before last missive has contributed to the reaction we have experienced.
    There is no way I will say the price because why should we give the opposition more ammunition?" I don't get it even after reading Armstrons piece. Someone more enlightened please explain?

    ReplyDelete
  107. rblong2usFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:46 PM

    For serious study of peak oil, theres really only http://www.theoildrum.com/

    Chris Martenson is a good source of balanced discussion and thought on how to position ourselves to get through the interesting times ahead.

    This site is simply the best thing thats happened for us simpletons, who know enough to know fiat is toast but not enough to understant WTF those crazy ups and downs are al about.

    We are all bombarding the Turd with questions, either in the comment section or via pm and no doubt 'tweet', for those who use social networking .....
    Trouble is he simply cannot respont to all our questions and focus on what he does so well.

    Hopefully he can launch a website for this growing community and we can have a forum or something that allows 'off topic' questions and ideas to be explored.

    The more comments I read here, the more it starts to feel like home. Long may it last.

    rbl

    ReplyDelete
  108. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:47 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:48 PM

    Here is the actual documentation on that IMF SDR story from earlier today. Courtesy of Jim Rickards' twitter feed. JamesGRickards

    http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/010711.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  110. Turdle GGFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:49 PM

    Marty,

    I'll try to answer.
    Gold had a monthly closing price below $1,372. That led him to predict that "the decline should now be in motion".

    Santa is saying that a monthly closing price (say in February) above $1,372 would invalidate Armstrong's view of a decline being in motion. How exactly that would change the rest of his predictions on page 4, I'm not sure. Could someone else contribute a view?

    (Whether Armstrong is a guru or something else is an entirely different topic, but Santa likes him, so that's good enough for me.)

    ReplyDelete
  111. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:53 PM

    Insight---

    No, I don't think you are nuts. Whether you like junior miners or junior oil & gas, having a Canadian account would seem to me to have some advantages. Trade directly on Canadian exchanges, more volume, tighter spreads, etc.

    Plus having your cash balances in C$ instead of US$ seems like a no-brainer to me for the long run.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Turdle GGFebruary 10, 2011 at 7:58 PM

    Sean,
    silver lease rates:
    http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

    ReplyDelete
  113. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:02 PM

    Mr. Turd...I was your 40th follower on http://twitter.com/TFMetals if you do follow-backs and if anyone else on the forum wants to follow me up, mine is:

    http://twitter.com/Save_America1st

    Well, I broke down again and went for another score at GVille Coins.

    In the span of a few days they raised their price over spot from 2 bucks, to 2.75, to 2.90!

    Figured w/ silver staying in the low 30's today and GVille's premiums jumping up, I better git in there and do some damage!

    Picked up a roll of Eagles and then 10 Buffs w/ the cash I had left.

    Happy 45th Birthday to my brother, because that little purchase today is going in his vault, not mine! Lucky fucker!

    Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:07 PM

    Ian you have completely gone over the edge, dude!

    Two weeks ago you couldn't get off the dime on buying your very first silver. Now I bet they know your face over there at Gville. Congratulations!

    ReplyDelete
  115. flauntFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:08 PM

    For those who don't know him, Chris Marchese runs a hedge fund and follows silver closely. He writes some good stuff for SeekingAlpha.

    He talks frequently about the "convenience yield" and today said it's higher than it was in 2009 when a 40% run ensued.

    Silver: Multiple Bullish Indicators Signal Breakout
    January 24, 2011

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/248146-silver-multiple-bullish-indicators-signal-breakout

    Silver Under 'The J.P. Morgan Effect'
    February 09, 2011

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/251793-silver-under-the-j-p-morgan-effect?source=kizur

    ReplyDelete
  116. MartyFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:15 PM

    Thx Turdle. Sometimes Jim's a bit cryptic. Also since the $1650 didn't occur in January, Jim called for Armstrong's numbers in June. $3000 gold I belive. Do you think Armstrong has now backed off that prediction?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:34 PM

    dude...yeah, pretty much. I think I have a problem...a problem of wanting to own lots of silver!

    ReplyDelete
  118. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:37 PM

    Turd,

    Quick question: why is Harvey so reluctant to speak openly about Wynter??

    In tonight's post he states:

    The bankers needed a much higher fall rate as they need to see investors roll to the next delivery month of May. They are scared out of their minds as too many are still standing and refuse to roll. The bankers are afraid that sovereign wealth funds are behind the open interest.

    C'mon!!

    In a comments a few nights back he claimed he NEVER addressed Wynter.

    What's up with that? Is he afraid of legalities? Is he like just super conservative?

    Just wondering.... might as well call a spade a spade, no?

    PS Looking forward to your "open letter to Wynter"!

    ReplyDelete
  119. PatrickFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:42 PM

    I know this is pretty late in the day to post on this forum before it gets abandoned, but I thought it was worth sharing anyway....

    Over the last couple of years I have put so much into PM that I physically own. I've gone through many periods where I questioned myself about whether or not it was a good idea or if I was setting myself up for a major failure.

    I'm so convinced that this was a good move. Sure, I might not get the latest and greatest return that a large cap could do for you over 20 years, but in the end i KNOW my friggin' metals will be worth SOMETHING. Most likely they will be worth at LEAST as much as what I paid for it. No bones about it. And....if they aren't? Well, I have 3 young children that will inherit it and I know that in their lifetimes it will be worth much more than zero.

    I've never felt better about such a major long term purchase.

    ReplyDelete
  120. funknasticFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:48 PM

    Hmmm a 'dollar alternative'.. maybe TPTB are trying to do what Brazil did 20 years ago to save them from inflation:
    "How Fake Money Saved Brazil"
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-fake-money-saved-brazil

    Turd,

    Good call on that possible head/shoulders yesterday... i followed your lead and unloaded my 29s. Last night's weak overnight action and today's fight nearly gave me a heart attack. March is too crazy... on to May!

    ReplyDelete
  121. kiyoteiFebruary 10, 2011 at 8:59 PM

    @Ian - Holy crap that's a huge Twitter following you have bro. I am number 1,062!

    ReplyDelete
  122. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:03 PM

    Insight---
    Oh yeah, and if you do decide to go for that Canadian brokerage account, be sure to get some local flavor financial news too. Lots of good stuff there I promise you that.

    http://www.bnn.ca/

    ReplyDelete
  123. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:05 PM

    thanks Kiyotei...I'll follow back. Hope you like my TEA Party Conservative Constitutional posts.
    Everyone follow the Turd!

    http://twitter.com/TFMetals

    follow Kiyotei and me if you'd like.

    http://twitter.com/Save_America1st

    ReplyDelete
  124. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:07 PM

    you know the code you have to type in after writing and trying to post a comment on here? When I went to post my last comment the scrable code was: "fockno"

    ReplyDelete
  125. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:11 PM

    flaunt--

    Thanks for some very good stuff you posted from seekingalpha above.

    Sean--

    Your question about lease rates is somewhat addressed in flaunts 1st of 2 seekingalpha references above. Way better than the glib and completely inadequate reply I gave you.

    ReplyDelete
  126. AnonymousFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:13 PM

    Eric, thanks for your support on my thinking!
    Even if I don't trade the little stuff, I can transfer my holdings in GG, AUY, etc. no sweat. Although, I'm thinking of trimming these ...in the hole in GG, but still in profit on AUY...

    I already read Howestreet.com, visit BNN and subscribe to Dave Skarica's newsletter....and he does do a lot of Canadian jrs since he's Canadian!!

    ReplyDelete
  127. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:14 PM

    Ian

    I know. The one I had from weeks ago that still sticks in my mind is

    untazed

    Turd--

    If we are talking about our fav verification word, then you know it's time for a new post!!!!!!! (channeling afrum)

    ReplyDelete
  128. Save_America1stFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:20 PM

    that's the funniest shit I've read yet tonight...and it's true. Is the Turd pinchin' a loaf?

    Need another killer write-up!

    ReplyDelete
  129. UnknownFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:21 PM

    Eric,

    I was able to find "The rise in silver lease rates has been very sharp, having gone from 4.29 basis points (0.0429%) to 77.65 basis points (0.7765%) since the start of the year (31 December 2010)." this is one of the bullish indicators

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1297346400.php

    ReplyDelete
  130. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:26 PM

    Insight--

    GG, yeah back in the day when Rob McEwen ran it, that thing was the BOMB. But now, I don't know....

    McEwen runs UXG now. Worth a look IMHO. The guy thinks big.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Eric OriginalFebruary 10, 2011 at 9:33 PM

    Oops, new post from the Turd, like half an hour ago.

    But we were having so much fun....

    ReplyDelete

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