Thursday, February 10, 2011

OK, Then.

Well, what an interesting day this is.

Overnight, The EE struck and struck hard, trying to get the ball rolling to the downside. We then got an "8:30 Special" as Blythe ripped about a quarter out of silver right on schedule. From there, however, silver has been well-bid all morning. Check it out:
Very nice action. Very nice.

From here, let's see if we can hold these gains. Here at noon EST, I've got $30.20. A best case scenario is that we scream higher into the close and finish above 30.50, thereby giving us another, wonderful UP outside reversal day. A happy scenario would give us at least a green close, above 30.28. (Trust me. That in itself would be a major victory.) An unfortunate scenario would be to rollover here and close below 30.

Let's keep watching and see how things play out on what has become a very important day for the short-term trend. TF

134 comments:

  1. I also enjoy another rough cob up the blythers tailpipe!! Rip above 30.50 to stick it to the jpig morgue sphincters! FRYday follow through close above 31.25 for a routing victory in operation preparation "H"! Free jiffy lube all around for the jpig morgue crowd!!

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  2. I've seldom seen a PM rally right in the face of 30Y auction. If it's WB folks or whoever doing it then it's ballsy.

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  3. Would have loved to seen Blythe partake in this event:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB7gnB31NnI

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  4. ALL bets are off with silver action if you believe there is a true shortage of physical. You can play the paper trade but the advantage is to the longs here. Expect silver to see over 40 withing a month before consolidation

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  5. FYI, I just purchased a 32-35 spread in May silver calls with the proceeds from selling the March 30s yesterday.

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  6. As if we needed MORE confirmation of silver shortage:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/10_Turk_-_Silver_Backwardation_for_Years%2C_Possible_Hyperinflation.html

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  7. From ZH.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-comes-executive-order-6102-qe-generation-dutch-central-bank-orders-pension-fund-sell-it

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  8. Part 4 silver Bears video out tomorrow with some shockers! Put your diapers on.

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  9. thanks Justin. wonder if the pension fund is required to sell the 'extra' gold to the DCB :) probably not but suspect the 1.4 tonnes will remain within the bankers control.

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  10. Looking forward to it silvergoldsilver!

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  11. IF The Turd was running money...and IF The Turd was desirous of spiking silver to $31, thereby attracting big $ and putting the hammer to the EE...I'd wait until about 1:10 or so and then start buying like crazy to paint the tape with a green close and even an ORD.
    Just sayin...

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  12. That Dutch pension aught to make a public thing about lining up a Chinese buyer for that gold. Probably not what TPTB had in mind!

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  13. Switching gears from Wynter and the Strippers for a bit, here is an article from a guy who seems to have a good view of things, regardless of what aspect of the silver market he writes about:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lewis/feb102011.html

    Something tells me this "kabuki" with Wynter is entertaining and all, but the REAL issues in the imtermeidate and long term are the structural problems with debt that are, let's face it, insurmountable at this point.

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  14. What gets me about the whole WB situation is that "she" states that a higher price would be more indicative of a physical shortage, yet we all know that physical is facing delays in delivery right now. A higher price would bring out more long term holders to take their profits and fill the supply gap making jp's job of getting ahold of the physical to deliver, would't it?

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  15. Here is the good doctor's archive:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/index.html#lewis

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  16. Above...."Make jp's job (easier)"...sorry

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  17. @Turd,

    From your lips to God's ears, my friend.

    Just sayin'.

    @JW;

    That is PRECISELY the ONLY thing that makes me skeptical about Wynter and the Strippers (btw, cmon now, Blythe and the Monkeys vs Wynter and the Strippers -- can you make this up?? And which team would you rather be on?)

    But back to the point, how can someone SOOO knowledgable about the silver manipulation make such a STUPID mistake as to say that price of silver has ANY relation to supply and demand? Isn't that the whole point here?

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  18. The nest step is to turn gold & silver into working currency to compete with (overthrow) fiat paper. The largest private market for goods & services is Craigslist and EBay. When you start seeing ads saying payment in gold & silver only "NO FIAT PAPER CURRENCIES ACCEPTED" G & S will go from buy & hold to buy-hold-and use. This will drive a silver steak through the JP Morgue.

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  19. This can't be good. Silver in Backwardation out till 2015??? jesus

    http://enkigold.blogspot.com/2011/02/turk-silver-backwardation-for-years.html

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  20. New POMO schedule hits 2Pm est! Lots'uv hot money with additional 25 billion handed off to primary dealers today!! Silver could go either way as the hot money may be sufficient to fight real money gold/silver! May be too many irons in the fire for the fed and just keeping the Dow above 12,200 may cost them all the banana republic skins today?

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  21. Thank you all for the responses and Turd for allowing this chatter. Just visited apmex.com and they have good prices (€ 25,56 single ASE / + 500 @ € 24,45) but the problem for me is that the dutch customs will VAT the shipment and I rather spent that money on more silver. Second option you guys mentioned is Germany (ASE 27,70 including 6% VAT) and that is in driving range for a pick up by yours truly. Luxemburg is also an option but I have to find some prices. same goes for Switzerland.

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  22. Bart

    http://www.kronwitter-muenzen.de/Silbermuenzen-1-oz

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  23. Bart: The "chatter" is what makes the site. My comments have become secondary.

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  24. Just did my patriotic duty and ordered 100 more Buffalo rounds for "cold storage" heheheh

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  25. A Turd Tweet?? - is that a Silver Fart?

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  26. Got some 2 oz and 1 oz bars from Monarch Precious Metals in the mail! They have 100oz ingots for sale as well. I like the handcrafted look personally.

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  27. Those poured bars from Monarch are sweet!

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  28. Turd,

    Your blog has really gotten me interested in TA. If you had to recommend one book for beginners who have only rudimentary knowledge of chart reading, what would it be?

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  29. Buy Silver --- Crash JP Morgan animation that talks about Turd ....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4

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  30. What is TPTB? I didn't see it in turd's glossary.

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  31. Sorry, guys, "POMO"...? Tried looking it up with no success.

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  32. Jerome - I know that one: The Powers That Be

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  33. http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    Does it make you want to sell your physical PM's?

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  34. Permanent
    Open
    Market
    Operations

    Expect a full post regarding the latest schedule by later this afternoon.

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  35. TKS TF. I thought it was something like that from the context...

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  36. Pick-

    Try Martin Pring's 'Introduction to Technical Analysis- it's dry as toast, but covers all the bases.

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  37. The vibes are growing for silver at over $35 by March. Backwardation till 2015; smoke is pouring out of the cartel's engines!

    If March $35 is indeed coming, then the longer it takes to get moving, the more spectacular will be the ascent. Will it be a diagonal line, or horizontal then vertical?

    It is gonna be a white knuckle ride for sure.

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  38. Thank you TJ, I'll take a peek now

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  39. The January deficit rises by $50B; tax-cut package puts annual deficit on pace for $1.5T. Well folks on here get the picture.

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  40. The POMO is the nuts and bolts of how the Fed prints all the money for QE. They actually put out a schedule for it.

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  41. Yup! Turk says there's 2 things we have happen! Both send silver skyward!! Those holding physical have the aces and the paper fiat crowd hold all the jokers with a few direction cards on how the game is played!! two alternatives:


    One, as we discussed on Friday, the silver price has to rise in order to dislodge physical metal from the strong hands that now own it. But why would anyone accept some national currency in exchange for physical silver unless the price is much, much higher?


    Two, the shorts declare force majeure and use government force to let them escape from their untenable position. The fall-out from this outcome is very complex because there are so many factors to consider. But I would expect that any default would only strengthen the resolve of the strong hands now owning physical metal. Meaning that the market for physical silver would become even more tight than it is now, even if the price shoots higher as I expect.” http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html
    ........................................
    Yup! gov bailout for jpig! Hold tight to the physical!! Here we go!!

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  42. Buy Silver --- Crash JP Morgan animation that talks about Turd ....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTalT9iI-k4

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  43. The majority of the people out there holding fiat and no metals at all are just like us ..or at least just like how we (or at least me) used to be. They are going to be in a world of hurt once all the s does htf. So, let's all keep trying to alert as many people as possible and win as many converts to real money as possilbe. I am grateful that my brother woke me up last year. I am late to this realization but at least I am here now and playing a mad game of trying to prepare.

    And I am trying to wake others up. I will take absolutely no pleasure in watching those without metals go through the pain that is coming our way. As I said..most just don't realize that an enonomic tsunami is rapidly approaching. Too busy living their lives and enjoying the relative ease of it to get their heads out of the sand.

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  44. Ginger! Working class rank'n file U.S. citizen will get left holding the fiat paper printed to infinity bag!! Just how it works!! I've tried for 3 years to convince family/friends about how we revert back to the gold/silver standard naturally as governments go wild printing!! Most look at you as if you have four eyes! Only have one daughter & son accumulating physical silver, other two kids will depend on Dad/Mom!! Fine!!

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  45. Found this new Twitter update on ZH. It Tweets "sold out" silver status from various online retailers.

    http://twitter.com/Silver_Watchdog

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  46. I have two questions I was hoping someone could answer.

    First of all, why-night after night, do silver futures get hammered. Does anyone buy paper on the long side, ever?

    My second question. Will there ever be a point in time where actual physical silver has a G'D'amned thing to do with paper silver and lack of supply?

    Thanks boys and girls.

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  47. Ginger - Here's a thought.

    Most people know who Robert Kyosaki is - The Rich Dad author. Tell them to read Michael Mahoney's book "Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver", which is part of the Rich Dad's Advisors collection. Maybe the Rich Dad label will cause them to give it some credibility. Mahoney does a great job of explaining the whole history of fiat vs real money and what to do. It was his book that woke me up. Another very good one is Charles Goyette's "The Dollar Meltdown". Good luck!

    BTW, there is another edge to the hyperinflation sword. If you can accumulate enough of the devalued currency, you can pay off all your debts with it, including your mortgage...

    Even if people can't by PM or amass lots of fiat, they should at least get and keep a 30 day or more supply of food (every good Mormon family already has a year's worth). Good to have when the daily trucks to your local Safeway stop running.

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  48. Reuters saying Mubarak id transferring his powers and amending the constitution

    Not sure if this will appease the massive crowd in Tahrir Square

    Apparently, some of the army have downed guns and joined the crowd, in defiance of an order from Mubarak

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  49. Wow: IMF calling for dollar alternative

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/

    WTF?

    That's pretty serious, no?

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  50. So what happens if Mubarak steps down. How is that going to effect the Metals market.

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  51. Tales From The Front--

    Left work early today (sore throat) and checked on my fav local shop. THis is the one that had gotten in a stack of 10 oz bars last week. I noted at the time that I was sure they'd be sold out in a couple days.

    Sure enough, those bars are long gone. One interesting thing though. There are now THREE 100 oz bars sitting in their place. The guy told me that a customer walked in and wanted to trade those 100's for all the 90% coin he could get. I don't want to read anything into why someone might do that, but it's interesting nonetheless. Not sure how much 90% coin he keeps on hand, as it is generally not out in the display case, but he had enough to take care of this customer. Without that trade-in, he was pretty much wiped out.

    Bottom line, at the local shop level, silver is on a high speed revolving door. If they don't have what you want, try again in a day or two. Whatever comes in is gone fast. But always ask about 90% coin if it interests you and you don't see it on display. More often it's in the back, in rolls, bags, or buckets.

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  52. Peter Schiff has been saying that all along that $$ will be replaced by some other denomination because of its weakness and will no longer be the World's Reserve currency.

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  53. Mubarak is "proud" of the protestors and will punish the people he ordered harm them..

    His response to their demands is to fulfill what he promised. Protestor demands are to be fulfilled.

    Looks like he is staying on until the election

    Cairo could burn

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  54. Eric...

    Hey, just check GVille coins site and now their silver Eagles are 2.90 over spot! They must know the supply is on life support at this point. That's a $.90 hike in a week.
    Their Buffs are still only $1 over spot though.
    I'm going to have to go in there today and see what's up.

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  55. @dallascfp:

    I respect Peter Schiff's opinion a great deal.

    But for the IMF to say it, and for it to be reported on CNN Money is an exponentially different matter.

    That puts it that much closer to ACTUALLY happening.

    And if the dollar loses reseve currency status, well, that really is, to quote Joe Biden, "a big fucking deal".

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  56. I hear you oldNavy, afrum. This whole thing is just somewhat depressing as I'm sure most here would agree that we'd rather have a stable real-money backed economy AND a gov't AND banks who gave a turd about the country and its people than all the metals on the planet. I for one come at this from an angle that I have NO CHOICE but to collect metals, miners, foodstuffs. We have been backed into this corner and ..well, today watching the Egyptian people struggle for their freedom it just makes me madder than ever that we HAVE...or had.. what these people want. And we are having it stolen from us right before our very eyes. ..Not that we are totally innocent in the situation. We have let this government get out of control. We have slept while they have schemed the financial downfall of America. Each of us are only one person and you just feel powerless but collectively we should have put a stop to this madness a long long time ago.

    I continue to stock and store. Good advice.

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  57. Mubarak NOT resigning.....onward with turmoil in the middle east.....Gold and silver remains the safety net

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  58. Save-America1st

    I can't wait to hear what Bill Haynes has to say on KWN's weekly wrap this weekend. But then, I always say that!

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  59. And we thought the WB saga was kabuki; now this shit in Egypt, this is the real deal, lol.

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  60. "Wow: IMF calling for dollar alternative

    http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/

    WTF?

    That's pretty serious, no?"

    That will be the end. Once the oil is no longer traded in dollars we are going to be glad we hold physical.

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/india-iran-mull-over-gold-for-oil-for-now/articleshow/7238760.cms

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  61. The real world has a way of stepping in no matter what JPM and Wynter have to say...

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  62. ok, gotta ask. Anybody have any good info on the Amero currency? I've been hearing for a few years that the gov't is trying to crash the dollar so that they can merge Canada and Mexico with our economy and use the Amero like Europe does the Euro. Bad fucking idear right there, but I don't know if it's just rumor or what. I do know they've been minting Amero coins for quite a while now and they're not easy to purchase.
    Just wondering if anyone had the inside scoop, because since I've been reading here and on ZH I can't say I've ever seen it brought up yet.

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  63. Cris -

    Yeah I have seen that story before, but not on cnn. What is interesting to me is that this stuff is being reported more and more in the MSM. I don't know how many people are noticing yet, but when we start seeing stories about inflation and/or PM in USA Today, everything will shift into high gear.

    I am hoping we can see another 2-3 years or more of this silver bull before it goes parabolic.

    BTW, I am reading that wikileaks published emails from a senior Saudi oil official saying he thinks they have overestimated their underground reserves by 40%?

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  64. Cris

    Yes, that IMF story is a BFD indeed! Seems like lately we've been seeing more and more stories along those lines, either talking gold standard or SDR's.

    If things were truly all okey-dokey like they keep telling us, why would they increasingly be talking new global currency regimes?

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  65. Boy that Dutch strong arm gold sale stinks big time. I feel sorry for those living in Europe as it appears they are moving past neo-liberal socialism to full blown totalitarianism.

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  66. Turd, do you think this is the "sell the rally" mentality you were talking about on the way up to making new highs? i.e. are we seeing selling from the poor bastards who waited until $30.50+ to jump in last year?

    If so, does it just have to keep poking at $30.50 until it falls?

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  67. OldNavy,

    I think you are right about this stuff getting more and more mainstream.

    As for me, I kinda wish our national leaders would stop kicking the can down the road and just deal with our problems.

    And I think our biggest problem is Peak Oil, which we never seem to talk about here (and that's OK).

    But our WHOLE economic system is based on growth, and oil is the engine for that growth. And if the theory of Peak oil is correct, and i personally believe it is, then we will NEVER again have as much cheap energy as we do now, or did have in the past few years.

    And that affects literally EVERYHTING, from food to medicine to communications...

    One of the most powerful book I ever read was written several years ago by James Kunstler: THE LONG EMERGENCY.

    that was the book that got me into PMs. And there is not a SINGLE thing he predicted that is NOT coming true. His entire thesis was based on Peak Oil.

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  68. Cris-

    Thanks for posting this- looks like the international power elite have themselves a plan. Since SDR's will not be backed by anything but a basket of international currencies (printed at will by the member nations CB's), and the SDR's themselves will also be printed at will. So I agree with Eric- this looks like a last-ditch effort to keep the Ponzi going by adding another layer to it. The insider elite, of course, will control rate of exchange to facilitate more looting by banker allies, but then that is the whole point it seems.

    Buy and hold tangibles, people. If you can't touch it, you don't own it.

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  69. Save_America1st Never heard that one, but if was Canada or Mexico, I think I would say "No, thanks." Their currencies are both looking better for the future than is ours.

    History note: The 1oz silver "Spanish Dollar" or 8 Real Piece (yes like the pirates "pieces of eight"), AKA "Peso", was accepted as money throughout the USA up to the mid-1800's.

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  70. Egyptians pissed off after mubaraks speech....here it comes....buckle up

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  71. Fox News: "Mubarak to hand off power but remain in office"

    ..Now, that just doesn't make sense. Isn't that kind of like getting a divorce but remaining in the marriage ?

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  72. Just read an interesting thesis: We have always assumed that democracy makes the people happy, but the reality may be that people have to be basically happy for them to choose democracy. I never considered that before, but it makes some sense.

    I hope the Egyptians take the time to do it right. The old Navy saying "If you want it bad, you'll get it bad" may well apply...

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  73. From the 80s

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_ITf7u4XRA

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  74. I never intended to post this much, but do enjoy the interchange. So, Anybody, what's happening with BM, WB and Ag? Do we really think there is a chance of seeing 31 tomorrow? 30.50?

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  75. Cris, thanks for book reference. Think I'll sign it out from the local library today :)

    For those who've read creature from jekyll island, Griffin states the plan is for the amero to the be common currency for the 3 countries. Who knows but keep in mind he wrote that book over 25 years ago I believe.

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  76. oldNavy

    Same here. I'm a pretty quiet guy, but Turd Town has turned me into Chatty Kathy over these last couple months. Just great interchange, great ideas, no garbage, no shouting matches. Really enjoy it. Thank You Turd!

    Plus, with the regular posting of links to current news, you really don't need to be monitoring ZH or anything else. If it matters, you'll get tipped here.

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  77. oldNavy : i guess many will switch tomorrow into AG and AU -- last chance before the weekend.

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  78. @old Navy,

    been thinking that maybe the Turd could/should post something like "What I would do if I were Wynter Benton".

    He has alluded to his views in the comments.

    But he has enough of a readership that it would make some waves.

    And it would be nice to get some "exchange" going on amongst the "silver elders" if you will.

    If I were wynter, I would be saying to myself things are going pretty well so far. And the real world is starting to play into my hands.

    So maybe I might want to get some more buzz going. And although price is not exactly my goal, a HUGE up day on a Friday going into the weekend might have some benefits: might get some algo buying going, might "fire up the base" so to speak, and in the end, would definitely be advantageous to my goal.

    So what if we had our first $2 UP day tomorrow, and ended above $32??? Dare to dream, but it would be a LOT of bang for my buck. And that's what I would be looking for if I were David going up against Goliath. Maybe even spin it on a Yahoo message board or here at Turd's like "solidarity amongst the common people", or a current day Network "we are mad as hell..."

    Any chance you could share your insights Turd?? Or are you playing chess while the rest of us are playing checkers?

    I mean, March is closer than we think, right Wynter?

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  79. Cris, th big move on a Friday is the oldest play in the book, and if run well still one of the most effective. Student body right, or Lombardi's power sweep if you prefer.
    A big PM and/or oil move gets it into other discussions like Mubarak, general civil unrest, poor monetray policy- all the weekend shows. Not by itself, but as a contributing player; so lots of people not even thinking about it directly hear the message.
    Twouldst be nice, methinks should it occur.

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  80. Alright, so let's be bold.

    Let's ask, well maybe even demand (nicely) that our fearless leader Turd step up here a little. He did not ask for the mantle of leadership, but few in history do --rather it is thrust upon them.

    (hehe, he said thrust)

    So what do you say Turd -- maybe jump start this party a little with an open letter to Wynter?

    We of course defer to your judgement -- but what do you think?

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  81. Oil could be replaced, here in the U.S if one could remove regulatory barriers we could replace oil with a combination of natural gas and something like a thorium cycle nuke plants. Getting high enough energy density to duplicate the current airline model might be a bit of a challenge.

    I made a post on my own blog about a year ago that may have some relevance to the peak oil discussion in this thread.(http://unreasonablerocket.blogspot.com/2009/08/why-space-matters.html)

    I'm personally conflicted between my belief in human ingenuity as expressed in the book the "rational optimist" and the news I see such as the ZH article on the physical facts on the ground with respect to population growth in Egypt.

    In the short term I am more and more convinced that 95% of the U.S. population has no clue whats coming.

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  82. Cris,

    You aren't the only peak-oiler here. I jumped onboard the believer train after reading Chris Martenson's excellent Crash Course: click here. Of course doing my own research only confirmed this analysis.

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  83. Does anyone know what Santa Sinclair is talking about with this comment:

    "Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    There is a number whereby Martin Armstrong’s reaction is nullified. Many people in finance read him but will not admit it.

    His second before last missive has contributed to the reaction we have experienced.

    There is no way I will say the price because why should we give the opposition more ammunition?"

    http://jsmineset.com/

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  84. @kiyotei:

    dude, AWESOME link!

    "Think of an oil field as if it were a margarita..." NICE.

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  85. For a good laugh, watch Will Ferrel's guest surprise appearance on CNBC from January 2008.

    "This just in...GE is bankrupt." LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT2DxkEHnJc&feature=feedrec_grec_index

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  86. Cris: that's an interesting idea.
    Unfortunately, today has been extraordinarily busy. I'm trying to find the time to write some stuff about the new POMO schedule.
    Maybe I can write an "if I were Wynter" post this weekend.

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  87. Remarkably civil crowd, I agree. May it stay so. An unspoken code of conduct is very refreshing.

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  88. Santa cracks me up.

    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    This is easy. China only needs one ounce to accomplish this.

    China may increase gold reserves beyond ‘Fort Knox’ level – Hale

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  89. oldNavy, I'll probably pick up silver tomorrow as I usually feel pretty good about holding over the weekend. during the middle of the week you have to be careful if you're trying to trade.

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  90. Mr. Michelle picked up 10 Eagles and 8 Maples this afternoon. Trying to do our part...

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  91. Now following Turd Tweets:
    http://twitter.com/TFMetals

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  92. Thanks, Paul.

    One might also ask, "Why is natural gas so cheap now, if oil is getting more expensive?" or "Why would we want to burn 'clean' coal when natural gas is so readily available?"

    This might seem even farther off track, but as long as we are waiting for some more germane silver-centered conversation, what the heck. This actually does relate to why things are as they are and how they might be fixed.

    Much of our current financial and commodity situation is tied to our complex, lobbyist-driven 75,000 page tax code and all the hidden subsidies it creates. I am convinced that the FairTax is an idea worth bringing front and center in American politics. I won't explain it here, it's not appropriate for this board, but y'all might want go to www.fairtax.org and read the case for it.

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  93. @ Turdle GG

    Page 4

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/An%20Islamic%20Revolution%20Is%20It%20on%20Time%2001-30-2011.pdf

    page 5 has interesting data on Oil

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  94. Turd,

    YOU DA MAN.

    We are just peons in the Kingdom of the Turd.

    Seriously, where else do you get an answer in real time from the guy who runs the show.

    This site rocks. Almost as if we are all brothers from another mother.

    OK, Im out for a bit. A sincere thanks to everyone here for making it MUCH easier to pass the day.

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  95. Intermediate peak oil you want to understand EROEI, the Export Land Model, a gallon of gas equals 500 man hours of labor, and that we've burned through half a billion years worth of stored sunlight (fossil fuels) in the last 300 years.

    Advanced peak oil you start to understand that our technology is excellent at burning fossil fuels, but is actually very inefficient at conserving energy when the whole system is taken into account. A horse is actually more efficient than a car as a means of transportation if you take into account the entire life cycle and supply chain. A car needs roads, factories, trained labor, mined metals, etc, etc. A horse is self sufficient, eats grass, heals itself, and reproduces on its own. Human ingenuity without abundant energy moves very slow; just look how fast we progressed before fossil fuels. But these are controversial views even among peak oil people.

    I recommend John Michael Greer, but James Kunstler and Jeff Rubin are good Peak Oil writers too.

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  96. Pat and wrafe,
    Thank you. I hadn't read Mr. Armstrong's most recent works.

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  97. Ok, I'm on my second glass now and I just want to make a couple of comments. First, as reported here by a couple of astute PM Turdites the IMF one world currency article is HUGE in my opinion. Perhaps we are much closer to the precipice than we think?

    Secondly, Monday is Valentines Day. Could history be repeating? Might we have Part Two of the St Valentines Massacre. Instead of Al Capone against Bus Moran we get the mother of all market meltdowns initiated by the silver vigilantes vs Blythe?

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  98. Two thoughts here: (okay, three)

    (1) @pick52 -

    IRT your question much earlier today. You might want to read "Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder. It is an old classic primer, but I found it to have easy to understand explanations of chart analysis.

    (2) @wineguy & others -

    The IMF has been pushing this SDR idea for some time. The Chinese and the Russians recently agreed to settle their international trade in their own currencies. All this is because we do have a world reserve currency - USD - and nobody likes it anymore, so they are looking for alternatives.

    BTW, the USDX index should be taken with a BIG grain of salt. The yardstick against which the USD is measured is primarily the euro and the yen, with other currencies given lesser weight. If the USD was measured against gold, the picture would be WAY worse.

    Looking forward to TF's next post...
    oldNavy out!

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  99. OldNavy, I agree the IMF has floated numerous past articles. What makes todays article unique is that it is all over the MSM. Huge Difference!

    ReplyDelete
  100. "We are just peons in the Kingdom of the Turd."
    Saying this out loud, I get
    " We are just pee ons in the Kingdom of the Turd"
    Aren't we getting just a wee bit scatological?

    ReplyDelete
  101. What Cris said.......

    Turd, You ARE da man

    Let's keep this blog orderly and focused

    Thanks to all posters

    ReplyDelete
  102. Turd,

    Can you explain briefly how the Silver/Gold Lease rates are associated with physical demand? I have started to hear about this recently and that the Silver Lease Rates are Rising sharply from Multi Year Lows.

    Chart anyone?

    Thanks,
    Sean

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  103. All I can tell you about lease rates is that I've looked at them occasionally in the past, hoping to find something that would help me trade. No luck so far, but then, I'm a lousy trader anyway. The only way I ever make a nickel is holding for a long term trend.

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  104. I spent a good chunk of today on the phone with TD Canada Trust and also TD Waterhouse (brokerage.)

    You can open up an account in person with no limit on deposits....all you need is your cash/check and a couple of IDS.
    As for brokerage...you can open up a trading accouunt, but only with pension/IRA money. You can transfer your stocks over....

    I'm seriously thinking of taking my IRA and moving a chunk to Canada to trade miners there...and put some cash into the bank...you can buy the equivalent of CDS in Canada in the bank.

    Am I NUTS??

    I know all about Everbank, but they're based in FL and they make loans and they are not tops in terms of reserves. So, I'm not so sure about buying currencies through them (Money markets for individual currencies and the CD baskets.) Piece at Zero Hedge today questioning the Aussie, etc. ....Canada not having the same problems...

    ReplyDelete
  105. Santa Says: "There is a number whereby Martin Armstrong’s reaction is nullified. Many people in finance read him but will not admit it.
    His second before last missive has contributed to the reaction we have experienced.
    There is no way I will say the price because why should we give the opposition more ammunition?" I don't get it even after reading Armstrons piece. Someone more enlightened please explain?

    ReplyDelete
  106. For serious study of peak oil, theres really only http://www.theoildrum.com/

    Chris Martenson is a good source of balanced discussion and thought on how to position ourselves to get through the interesting times ahead.

    This site is simply the best thing thats happened for us simpletons, who know enough to know fiat is toast but not enough to understant WTF those crazy ups and downs are al about.

    We are all bombarding the Turd with questions, either in the comment section or via pm and no doubt 'tweet', for those who use social networking .....
    Trouble is he simply cannot respont to all our questions and focus on what he does so well.

    Hopefully he can launch a website for this growing community and we can have a forum or something that allows 'off topic' questions and ideas to be explored.

    The more comments I read here, the more it starts to feel like home. Long may it last.

    rbl

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  107. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  108. Here is the actual documentation on that IMF SDR story from earlier today. Courtesy of Jim Rickards' twitter feed. JamesGRickards

    http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/010711.pdf

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  109. Marty,

    I'll try to answer.
    Gold had a monthly closing price below $1,372. That led him to predict that "the decline should now be in motion".

    Santa is saying that a monthly closing price (say in February) above $1,372 would invalidate Armstrong's view of a decline being in motion. How exactly that would change the rest of his predictions on page 4, I'm not sure. Could someone else contribute a view?

    (Whether Armstrong is a guru or something else is an entirely different topic, but Santa likes him, so that's good enough for me.)

    ReplyDelete
  110. Insight---

    No, I don't think you are nuts. Whether you like junior miners or junior oil & gas, having a Canadian account would seem to me to have some advantages. Trade directly on Canadian exchanges, more volume, tighter spreads, etc.

    Plus having your cash balances in C$ instead of US$ seems like a no-brainer to me for the long run.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Sean,
    silver lease rates:
    http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

    ReplyDelete
  112. Mr. Turd...I was your 40th follower on http://twitter.com/TFMetals if you do follow-backs and if anyone else on the forum wants to follow me up, mine is:

    http://twitter.com/Save_America1st

    Well, I broke down again and went for another score at GVille Coins.

    In the span of a few days they raised their price over spot from 2 bucks, to 2.75, to 2.90!

    Figured w/ silver staying in the low 30's today and GVille's premiums jumping up, I better git in there and do some damage!

    Picked up a roll of Eagles and then 10 Buffs w/ the cash I had left.

    Happy 45th Birthday to my brother, because that little purchase today is going in his vault, not mine! Lucky fucker!

    Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Ian you have completely gone over the edge, dude!

    Two weeks ago you couldn't get off the dime on buying your very first silver. Now I bet they know your face over there at Gville. Congratulations!

    ReplyDelete
  114. For those who don't know him, Chris Marchese runs a hedge fund and follows silver closely. He writes some good stuff for SeekingAlpha.

    He talks frequently about the "convenience yield" and today said it's higher than it was in 2009 when a 40% run ensued.

    Silver: Multiple Bullish Indicators Signal Breakout
    January 24, 2011

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/248146-silver-multiple-bullish-indicators-signal-breakout

    Silver Under 'The J.P. Morgan Effect'
    February 09, 2011

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/251793-silver-under-the-j-p-morgan-effect?source=kizur

    ReplyDelete
  115. Thx Turdle. Sometimes Jim's a bit cryptic. Also since the $1650 didn't occur in January, Jim called for Armstrong's numbers in June. $3000 gold I belive. Do you think Armstrong has now backed off that prediction?

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  116. dude...yeah, pretty much. I think I have a problem...a problem of wanting to own lots of silver!

    ReplyDelete
  117. Turd,

    Quick question: why is Harvey so reluctant to speak openly about Wynter??

    In tonight's post he states:

    The bankers needed a much higher fall rate as they need to see investors roll to the next delivery month of May. They are scared out of their minds as too many are still standing and refuse to roll. The bankers are afraid that sovereign wealth funds are behind the open interest.

    C'mon!!

    In a comments a few nights back he claimed he NEVER addressed Wynter.

    What's up with that? Is he afraid of legalities? Is he like just super conservative?

    Just wondering.... might as well call a spade a spade, no?

    PS Looking forward to your "open letter to Wynter"!

    ReplyDelete
  118. I know this is pretty late in the day to post on this forum before it gets abandoned, but I thought it was worth sharing anyway....

    Over the last couple of years I have put so much into PM that I physically own. I've gone through many periods where I questioned myself about whether or not it was a good idea or if I was setting myself up for a major failure.

    I'm so convinced that this was a good move. Sure, I might not get the latest and greatest return that a large cap could do for you over 20 years, but in the end i KNOW my friggin' metals will be worth SOMETHING. Most likely they will be worth at LEAST as much as what I paid for it. No bones about it. And....if they aren't? Well, I have 3 young children that will inherit it and I know that in their lifetimes it will be worth much more than zero.

    I've never felt better about such a major long term purchase.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Hmmm a 'dollar alternative'.. maybe TPTB are trying to do what Brazil did 20 years ago to save them from inflation:
    "How Fake Money Saved Brazil"
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-fake-money-saved-brazil

    Turd,

    Good call on that possible head/shoulders yesterday... i followed your lead and unloaded my 29s. Last night's weak overnight action and today's fight nearly gave me a heart attack. March is too crazy... on to May!

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  120. @Ian - Holy crap that's a huge Twitter following you have bro. I am number 1,062!

    ReplyDelete
  121. Insight---
    Oh yeah, and if you do decide to go for that Canadian brokerage account, be sure to get some local flavor financial news too. Lots of good stuff there I promise you that.

    http://www.bnn.ca/

    ReplyDelete
  122. thanks Kiyotei...I'll follow back. Hope you like my TEA Party Conservative Constitutional posts.
    Everyone follow the Turd!

    http://twitter.com/TFMetals

    follow Kiyotei and me if you'd like.

    http://twitter.com/Save_America1st

    ReplyDelete
  123. you know the code you have to type in after writing and trying to post a comment on here? When I went to post my last comment the scrable code was: "fockno"

    ReplyDelete
  124. flaunt--

    Thanks for some very good stuff you posted from seekingalpha above.

    Sean--

    Your question about lease rates is somewhat addressed in flaunts 1st of 2 seekingalpha references above. Way better than the glib and completely inadequate reply I gave you.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Eric, thanks for your support on my thinking!
    Even if I don't trade the little stuff, I can transfer my holdings in GG, AUY, etc. no sweat. Although, I'm thinking of trimming these ...in the hole in GG, but still in profit on AUY...

    I already read Howestreet.com, visit BNN and subscribe to Dave Skarica's newsletter....and he does do a lot of Canadian jrs since he's Canadian!!

    ReplyDelete
  126. Ian

    I know. The one I had from weeks ago that still sticks in my mind is

    untazed

    Turd--

    If we are talking about our fav verification word, then you know it's time for a new post!!!!!!! (channeling afrum)

    ReplyDelete
  127. that's the funniest shit I've read yet tonight...and it's true. Is the Turd pinchin' a loaf?

    Need another killer write-up!

    ReplyDelete
  128. Eric,

    I was able to find "The rise in silver lease rates has been very sharp, having gone from 4.29 basis points (0.0429%) to 77.65 basis points (0.7765%) since the start of the year (31 December 2010)." this is one of the bullish indicators

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1297346400.php

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  129. Insight--

    GG, yeah back in the day when Rob McEwen ran it, that thing was the BOMB. But now, I don't know....

    McEwen runs UXG now. Worth a look IMHO. The guy thinks big.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Oops, new post from the Turd, like half an hour ago.

    But we were having so much fun....

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete